2020 Electoral Outlooks Thread

[ChumpDumper]

derp gonna try to lawyer his way out of his support of domestic terrorism

And get upset about his nickname.

[Spurtacular]

1322551977855885312

Remember, you cheered this domestic terrorism.

1. I don't see anyone cheering.
2. The presumable Biden supporter performed an unsafe lane change.

You're BlakeBlaking right off. Your impending loss must have you really down. :lmao :rollin

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao derp's law class

[Spurtacular]

:lmao derp's law class

:lmao That snowflake getting taught lessons.

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao That snowflake getting taught lessons.:lol you don't even know how case law works

[Spurtacular]

:lol you don't even know how case law works

Derp badly wants a pillow fight. Sad.

[ChumpDumper]

Derp badly wants a pillow fight. Sad.:lmao derp upset about his nickname again.

Automatic W for me.

[Spurtacular]

:lmao derp upset about his nickname again.

Automatic W for me.

Moar convenience.

:lol derp

[ChumpDumper]

Moar convenience.

:lol derpIt's easy when you meltdown at being called derp, derp.

You are derp.

And it kills you.

lol derp

[spurraider21]

What about it?
you dont have any thoughts about anti-lgbt jesse lee peterson liking ass-munching videos? :lmao

[Bogie]

latent homosexuality is much more prevalent on the right tbh

1321905267152506888

gay people on the left are generally just open about it

[Bogie]

latent homosexuality is much more prevalent on the right tbh

1321905267152506888

gay people on the left are generally just open about it


spurtacular is definitely curious. That’s why he and chris never ever leave their homes. The temptation might be too great for them, and then they would have chemically castrate themselves

That’s where spurt got the idea for his eunuch alt. He did research on what he’d have to do to himself.

[Bogie]

Nm

[Reck]

1322645151819440129

HUEHUEHUEHUE

[Spurtacular]

1322645151819440129

HUEHUEHUEHUE


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dqkr2SXCZjU

[ChumpDumper]

Double digits in Michigan? derp's gonna lose it!

[Will Hunting]

Double digits in Michigan? derp's gonna lose it!
:lol he and Edgelord_Messiah are convinced Trump is going to win Minnesota. CNN didn't even bother include MN in this poll because it's not expected to be competitive.

[Reck]

:lol he and Edgelord_Messiah are convinced Trump is going to win Minnesota. CNN didn't even bother include MN in this poll because it's not expected to be competitive.

Surprise they didn't bother with Pennsylvania either.

Fact Trump is doing 4 rallies today and a couple more from tomorrow and Monday tells me he knows the hole is deep.

[Will Hunting]

Surprise they didn't bother with Pennsylvania either.

Fact Trump is doing 4 rallies today and a couple more from tomorrow and Monday tells me he knows the hole is deep.
All the pollsters are waiting until Monday to drop their final PA poll because of how important the state is and them wanting the most current results possible. Monmouth and Sienna/NY Times have already announced a PA poll coming on Monday, there will probably be more A rated polls for PA too.

The Des Moines Register is releasing its Iowa poll in a few hours, and that poll was dead on in 2016.

[Reck]

The Des Moines Register is releasing its Iowa poll in a few hours, and that poll was dead on in 2016.

I'm more interested in the senate side. Let's see what awaits as I assume they'll release one for the senate too?

[ElNono]

Can't wait for Wednesday, tbh... so over this election shit... feels like they've been campaigning forever

[Will Hunting]

I'm more interested in the senate side. Let's see what awaits as I assume they'll release one for the senate too?
Yes and yeah that's the one I'm interested in. The local Iowa pollsters have consistently shown Greenfield doing a lot better than the national, well known posters have so I'm hoping that trend continues with the Des Moines Register.

[SnakeBoy]

1322643443722657794

[Reck]

1322643443722657794

That sounds awesome.

[Spurtacular]

This has PA at only +.25 for Trump. But I have a hard time believing it won't be a spike through the heart against Biden's chances.
That fracking stuff was self-inflicted kill shot. :lol

https://statespoll.com/post/633495576923815936/pennsylvania-trump-vs-biden-muhlenberg-college

[pgardn]

You wanted me to give you an article. I did. You ignored it, which is fine. But now you're crying that I give you an article on this and that. Not going to happen. I do have my finger on the pulse; and that includes knowing who is lying to me; and there's a butt load of liars out there. They're not even good at it at this point.

All you told me is read Edge and then said it has nothing to do with the election.
You lie blatantly because you know most posters wont follow this and you think you will get away with it.
You tap out again.
I hand feed you, you bite like a child, then claim you gave me an article.
You did not post any link to any article. None.
Zero.

It so easy for Trumpers to lie like their god.

And you dont want to be held accountable to any link, so you make things up in your isolation.

[Warlord23]

So I'm out of the loop on who the Trumptards call "fake news" ... is Fox News considered part of the lying MSM?

Some highlights from the latest Fox poll:
Independents: Biden +22 (2016: Trump +1)
Seniors: Biden +10 (2016: Trump +9)
Suburban women: Biden +29 (2016: Clinton +11)

So, has Soros managed to corrupt Fox too?

[ducks]

Nate Cohn
Nate_Cohn
Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.
That's the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump's Midwestern sweep

[Reck]

Nate Cohn
Nate (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=19697)_Cohn
Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.
That's the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump's Midwestern sweep

Fucks a seltzer poll?

[Reck]

Yes and yeah that's the one I'm interested in. The local Iowa pollsters have consistently shown Greenfield doing a lot better than the national, well known posters have so I'm hoping that trend continues with the Des Moines Register.

Like I said, dumb farmers.

1322675240145739776 (https://twitter.com/briannedmr/status/1322675240145739776?s=21)

[Will Hunting]

Like I said, dumb farmers.

1322675240145739776 (https://twitter.com/briannedmr/status/1322675240145739776?s=21)
The same polling has Biden down by 7 and the Republican challenger winning the IA-01 house race by 15%. I don't buy it.

I also don't buy that so many voters are still undecided in that senate race. The state has been crop dusted with ads for the last 3 months, there's no way >10% of voters still haven't decided on the senate race.

[Reck]

The same polling has Biden down by 7 and the Republican challenger winning the IA-01 house race by 15%. I don't buy it.

I also don't buy that so many voters are still undecided in that senate race. The state has been crop dusted with ads for the last 3 months, there's no way >10% of voters still haven't decided on the senate race.

Yeah terrible numbers for every democrat across the board. Hard and sudden shift.

[tholdren]

Emmanuel Macron's draconian measures are due to be enforced until at least December 1, with people required to carry documents justifying their reason for leaving home that will be subject to police checks.

[Will Hunting]

Yeah terrible numbers for every democrat across the board. Hard and sudden shift.
Don't get me wrong, Greenfield has definitely lost momentum. She overplayed her hand with the crop price debate bit too much, and I've heard her ads are just overplayed to the point where they hurt her with voters. This might be an example of how a senate candidate at some point has more campaign money than he/she knows what to do with.

[MASSA]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA

[ChumpDumper]

derpren

[ducks]

Joe Concha
@JoeConchaTV
Trump now ahead in Arizona in the RCP index of polls. 2 weeks ago, Biden was leading by an avg of 4. If Trump takes FL, NC, AZ, OH, he basically has to take PA or MI to win (given Georgia doesn’t flip, which hasn’t since ‘92 when Clinton won with just 43%)

[ducks]

Democrats uneasy about higher Republican turnout in important Florida county

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/30/politics/democrats-uneasy-higher-republican-turnout-miami-dade/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

[Reck]

Joe Concha
@JoeConchaTV
Trump now ahead in Arizona in the RCP index of polls. 2 weeks ago, Biden was leading by an avg of 4. If Trump takes FL, NC, AZ, OH, he basically has to take PA or MI to win (given Georgia doesn’t flip, which hasn’t since ‘92 when Clinton won with just 43%)

Even with all the junk poll that's not true.

[Will Hunting]

New ABC/WaPo polling showed Biden up 7 in PA but down 2 in FL. Curious how the MAGAtards are going to thread the needle of saying one of those polls is for real and the other one is bullshit :lol

[ElNono]

New ABC/WaPo polling showed Biden up 7 in PA but down 2 in FL. Curious how the MAGAtards are going to thread the needle of saying one of those polls is for real and the other one is bullshit :lol

they'll manage

[Reck]

New ABC/WaPo polling showed Biden up 7 in PA but down 2 in FL. Curious how the MAGAtards are going to thread the needle of saying one of those polls is for real and the other one is bullshit :lol

:lol up 2 means it’s tied. Haven’t seen it yet but I assume the MoE is at least 3.5 points.

[Will Hunting]

:lol up 2 means it’s tied. Haven’t seen it yet but I assume the MoE is at least 3.5 points.
Yeah it’s well within the MOE (like every other Florida poll).

im driving up to PA early tomorrow morning to canvass for Joe and help build on that lead. Never thought Sleepy Joe would be the candidate I support so enthusiastically but here we are.

[Trill Clinton]

Yeah it’s well within the MOE (like every other Florida poll).

im driving up to PA early tomorrow morning to canvass for Joe and help build on that lead. Never thought Sleepy Joe would be the candidate I support so enthusiastically but here we are.

Be careful fam

[Will Hunting]

Be careful fam
I’ll be in Philly. Not too worried about angry gun toting MAGAtards there.

You need to see the clip of Big Gretch at the Michigan rally today if you haven’t already.

[ducks]

Trump praises Mike Piazza as Hall of Fame catcher is spotted at Pennsylvania rally
The catcher grew up not too far from Reading, Pa.

[Ef-man]

Who believes trump except for MAGAtards waiting for a bus back to the parking lot?

[baseline bum]

used to argue with Splits a lot too

i was pretty staunchly conservative, pro life, etc going back to high school when i had just started learning about politics :lol... even though i was never really religious, so i was generally pretty open about LGBT stuff, drug use, etc. which naturally led me to the "libertarian" tree. eventually started getting really uncomfortable with the right when it came to denying science re: climate change... eventually picked up on the scam that is trickle down economics, etc. it had been a pretty steady shift to the left during barry's 2nd term, to the point where i eventually wanted bernie in 2016, though somewhat apprehensively. i'm basically full on socdem at this point.

You gonna be wanting Stalin in two years

[baseline bum]

New ABC/WaPo polling showed Biden up 7 in PA but down 2 in FL. Curious how the MAGAtards are going to thread the needle of saying one of those polls is for real and the other one is bullshit :lol

Man I'll never trust Florida to not elect right wing nuts

[Will Hunting]

Man I'll never trust Florida to not elect right wing nuts
Somehow DeathSantis’s approval rating has gone up 9 points in the last 2 months. I don’t understand it, people who live in that state are fucking crazy.

[baseline bum]

Somehow DeathSantis’s approval rating has gone up 9 points in the last 2 months. I don’t understand it, people who live in that state are fucking crazy.

Fucking place is full of Florida Man and Cubans

[Spurtacular]

Fucking place is full of Florida Man and Cubans

Fucking Cubans, amirite?

[Ef-man]

:lma Ride the copium derp, ride it like it owes you money! :lma

https://media1.tenor.com/images/cc6fdddeca778900781699c9118f03a3/tenor.gif?itemid=5699759

[Spurtacular]

Any Democrat holding to Florida is in big denial.
You have better shots in GA, AZ, NC, MI, WI, PA if you're looking to chip at Trump's Red Firewall.

[ElNono]

Fucking place is full of Florida Man and Cubans

What do you expect? Under the pretense of fighting commies, Cubans have been getting full blown amnesty + citizenship since the Reagan days...

Also, Florida is full of retired boomers, tbh, basically a generation that has set this country back 30+ years...

[ElNono]

Any Democrat holding to Florida is in big denial.
You have better shots in GA, AZ, NC, MI, WI, PA if you're looking to chip at Trump's Red Firewall.

I think Biden has a solid shot in Florida. Gonna largely depend on Miami-Dade showing up to vote.

[Spurtacular]

I think Biden has a solid shot in Florida. Gonna largely depend on Miami-Dade showing up to vote.

Trump will win Florida by hundreds of thousands of votes.

In fact, add Iowa to the list of states Democrats have a better shot of winning.

Thought I think Trump will ultimately win Iowa by a larger percentage than he wins Florida.

[ElNono]

Trump will win Florida by hundreds of thousands of votes.

In fact, add Iowa to the list of states Democrats have a better shot of winning.

Thought I think Trump will ultimately win Iowa by a larger percentage than he wins Florida.

Based on what?

[Spurtacular]

Based on what?

Dude, I soak it all in. I could go back and reconstruct it; but it's not really what I want to do with my time.
Book it and watch if you don't believe me.

[ElNono]

Dude, I soak it all in. I could go back and reconstruct it; but it's not really what I want to do with my time.
Book it and watch if you don't believe me.

oh, it's pure faith. :lol

I have no doubt Trump can win Florida. All I said is that Biden has a solid shot at it too.

[Spurtacular]

oh, it's pure faith. :lol

I have no doubt Trump can win Florida. All I said is that Biden has a solid shot at it too.

Pure faith would imply I soak nothing of consequence in.

Throwing a tantrum maybe isn't the best way of convincing me to spend that kind of time reconstructing intel.

Nothing I'm seeing has me believing Biden has a "solid shot" of winning Florida. I would give him a faint shot for the sake of argument; but I'm not sure that's even in the case, tbh.

If I believed in fake polls as religiously as you do, I'd probably think that Biden had a "solid shot" though.

[ElNono]

Pure faith would imply I soak nothing of consequence in.

Throwing a tantrum maybe isn't the best way of convincing me to spend that kind of time reconstructing intel.

Nothing I'm seeing has me believing Biden has a "solid shot" of winning Florida. I would give him a faint shot for the sake of argument; but I'm not sure that's even in the case, tbh.

If I believed in fake polls as religiously as you do, I'd probably think that thouh.

I'm not here to convince you of anything. It's the other way around. You make a claim, you back it up.

I asked you very clearly what you were basing your hunch on. You can't explain it. Ok...

[Spurtacular]

I'm not here to convince you of anything. It's the other way around. You make a claim, you back it up.

I asked you very clearly what you were basing your hunch on. You can't explain it. Ok...

You're not trying to convince me; but I need to convince you somehow. :lolK

No. I just say what I'm seeing. I may or may not make a case for your sake. I don't always take into consideration your feelings.

Again, a mini tantrum is not the best way to motivate me necessarily.

Saying I don't know and putting words into my mouth is Chumpian.

I take stuff in throughout the day(s). Some of it I retain; some of it I absorb but don't necessarily have a strong immediate recall.

You take for granted that making cases for your sake requires work on my part. I may or may not be in the mood or be willing to spend the time. We all have to prioritize our time.

[ElNono]

You're not trying to convince me; but I need to convince you somehow. :lolK

No. I just say what I'm seeing. I may or may not make a case for your sake. I don't always take into consideration your feelings.

Again, a mini tantrum is not the best way to motivate me necessarily.

Saying I don't know and putting words into my mouth is Chumpian.

I take stuff in throughout the day(s). Some of it I retain; some of it I absorb but don't necessarily have a strong immediate recall.

You take for granted that making cases for your sake requires work on my part. I may or may not be in the mood or be willing to spend the time. We all have to prioritize our time.

This was my question, it's a couple posts up:


Based on what?

Just tell me it's a hunch, that's perfectly valid, tbh. No shame in that either.

[Spurtacular]

This was my question, it's a couple posts up:



Just tell me it's a hunch, that's perfectly valid, tbh. No shame in that either.

Early vote, Dems will be only 100K up or possibly less going into election day. The Repubs will win the day easily.
As well, minorities are much stronger for Trump this time around; and Florida has a lot of blacks and Hispanics.
Despite the media lies, I've seen nothing to state that seniors are drastically for Biden. In fact, I was telling you that
I think many will be pleased with his lowering premiums by something like 43 percent.
You don't vote against something that is working. Colleges not in progress. The vote parties aren't there as much.
Furthermore, Democrats have zero ground game in Florida b/c they're being COVID snowflakes.
Yes, Dems may make compensation with mail-in voting; but I was seeing stuff about that not even being strong.
All and all I think 4-10 percent or more for Trump is looking like a strong possibility.
As well, the polling stations are being more fairly ran than in other places. Ballot box stuffing is less of a concern than other places.

[ElNono]

Early vote, Dems will be only 100K up or possibly less going into election day. The Repubs will win the day easily.
As well, minorities are much stronger for Trump this time around; and Florida has a lot of blacks and Hispanics.
Despite the media lies, I've seen nothing to state that seniors are drastically for Biden. In fact, I was telling you that
I think many will be pleased with his lowering premiums by something like 43 percent.
You don't vote against something that is working. Colleges not in progress. The vote parties aren't there as much.
Furthermore, Democrats have zero ground game in Florida b/c they're being COVID snowflakes.
Yes, Dems may make compensation with mail-in voting; but I was seeing stuff about that not even being strong.
All and all I think 4-10 percent or more for Trump is looking like a strong possibility.
As well, the polling stations are being more fairly ran than in other places. Ballot box stuffing is less of a concern than other places.

This is you rationalizing your own opinion. This is a hunch. It's fine, but it's all it is.

[ElNono]

(BTW, I'm not mocking it or anything, don't take it the wrong way)

[ElNono]

I mean, even respectable polls are well within the margin of error, so Trump certainly has a solid chance here.

I know I've been giving States within the MoE to Trump.

[Spurtacular]

This is you rationalizing your own opinion. This is a hunch. It's fine, but it's all it is.

You're using loaded words like rationalizing even after I've present empirical data.
You're coping because the writing is on the wall and you don't want to admit it.
Frankly, I'd tell you if I thought Florida was in jeopardy. I did last time; but Trump won it fairly comfortably all the same.
This time, he has expanded his support in Florida greatly. I can't point to anything Biden has going for him other than mail-in voting, which is apparently not going very well after all.

[Spurtacular]

I mean, even respectable polls are well within the margin of error, so Trump certainly has a solid chance here.

I know I've been giving States within the MoE to Trump.

I think you're looking at 2016 and seeing that it was pretty close, and you think it's going to play out like that and anything can happen.
That's how I'd optimistically want to view it if I were a Democrat. But this state is reddening, realistically.
And as I've tried to explain, I've been following this and seeing a strong trend. Predictit.org had Trump at 51/100 on 10/19. Today it's at 62/100. (The higher the number the more favorable). But I'm not trying to validate that site as a strong indicator at all. I'm just giving you yet another example.

[ElNono]

You're using loaded words like rationalizing even after I've present empirical data.
You're coping because the writing is on the wall and you don't want to admit it.
Frankly, I'd tell you if I thought Florida was in jeopardy. I did last time; but Trump won it fairly comfortably all the same.
This time, he has expanded his support in Florida greatly. I can't point to anything Biden has going for him other than mail-in voting, which is apparently not going very well after all.

Then you don't know what empirical means. What you stated is 100% opinion. And then in this post you post opinion again.

Empirical means it's verifiable by observation or experience. In other words, anybody should be able to observe or experience what you state, and that's clearly not the case.

There are actual statistical measures that are contrary to what you state. Or at least, the margins you state.

There's nothing wrong with having an opinion, but you can't pass that as evidence of anything. That doesn't mean your opinion isn't valid either, BTW, I think everybody is entitled to one.

[ElNono]

For example, when I say I think Biden has a solid shot, it's absolutely an opinion. I do base it on the fact that, at least on the most reputable polls, it looks like the race is a tossup.

But I couldn't bring forth evidence outside of that.

[Spurtacular]

Then you don't know what empirical means.


100k bla bla 43 percent bla bla. You just trying to be difficult/snooty?

[ElNono]

100k bla bla 43 percent bla bla. You just trying to be difficult/snooty?

em·pir·i·cal
adjective
adjective: empirical

based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather than theory or pure logic. "they provided considerable empirical evidence to support their argument"

[Spurtacular]

Then you don't know what empirical means. What you stated is 100% opinion. And then in this post you post opinion again.

Empirical means it's verifiable by observation or experience. In other words, anybody should be able to observe or experience what you state, and that's clearly not the case.

There are actual statistical measures that are contrary to what you state. Or at least, the margins you state.

There's nothing wrong with having an opinion, but you can't pass that as evidence of anything. That doesn't mean your opinion isn't valid either, BTW, I think everybody is entitled to one.

And then the grand lecture built on a false premise.

:lol You're taking the Florida stuff too personally, bro.

I was frankly trying to steer you in a direction that would be fruitful cos Florida just ain't gonna happen. But apparently you'll be damned if I dash those hopes. :lol I mean, I can see why; you've done the math and you probably think it's in the bag if you get Florida. But shooting the messenger isn't going to change anything.

[ElNono]

Not even sure why you're upset, tbh...

[ElNono]

And then the grand lecture built on a false premise.

:lol You're taking the Florida stuff too personally, bro.

I was frankly trying to steer you in a direction that would be fruitful cos Florida just ain't gonna happen. But apparently you'll be damned if I dash those hopes. :lol I mean, I can see why; you've done the math and you probably think it's in the bag if you get Florida. But shooting the messenger isn't going to change anything.

Based on what?

[Spurtacular]

em·pir·i·cal
adjective
adjective: empirical

based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather than theory or pure logic. "they provided considerable empirical evidence to support their argument"

Yes, the numbers were/are empirical in that I'm presenting them as true data at least roughly speaking. You need to lower the snoot level, bro.

[Spurtacular]

Based on what?

Based on everything presented. But I think you mean for what purpose. Well, the discussion of other states could be more intriguing / steer you towards more realistic fruits. But if you want to just let me gloat about the the upcoming Florida win, then :lolK.

[ElNono]

Yes, the numbers were/are empirical in that I'm presenting them as true data at least roughly speaking. You need to lower the snoot level, bro.

Not really, the only verifiable numbers are early voting. The rest is one giant hunch.

minorities are much stronger for Trump this time around; and Florida has a lot of blacks and Hispanics. <-- opinion
Despite the media lies, I've seen nothing to state that seniors are drastically for Biden. <-- opinion
All and all I think 4-10 percent or more for Trump is looking like a strong possibility. <-- opinion
As well, the polling stations are being more fairly ran than in other places. Ballot box stuffing is less of a concern than other places. <-- opinion


Based on everything presented. But I think you mean for what purpose. Well, the discussion of other states could be more intriguing / steer you towards more realistic fruits. But if you want to just let me gloat about the the upcoming Florida win, then :lolK.

I do think it would be extremely worrying for Trump if he can't win Florida. Pretty much means the race is over for him. I can see how Trump voters would be worried about that.

[Spurtacular]

Not really, the only verifiable numbers are early voting. The rest is one giant hunch.


Both numbers I gave are verifiable. I didn't just make them the fuck up. Again, turn down the snoot ffs; you'll just be a more ameniable person in general if you stop playing empirical data cards even after people are giving you numbers. None of that means you have to trust my data. It's not like I'm sourcing it for you. Just chill on that sh** is what I'm saying though.

[Spurtacular]

The rest is one giant hunch.

If you want to see it that way, I can't stop you.
But it's my outlook; and I don't see it that way.
I see strong indications that Trump will win Florida.
It's not even a state I really worry about at this point.
If it were merely a hunch, I wouldn't be in that boat.

[ElNono]

Both numbers I gave are verifiable. I didn't just make them the fuck up. Again, turn down the snoot ffs; you'll just be a more ameniable person in general if you stop playing empirical data cards even after people are giving you numbers. None of that means you have to trust my data. It's not like I'm sourcing it for you. Just chill on that sh** is what I'm saying though.

That's exactly what it means. It's one giant "trust me, I know what I'm saying". Well, I disagree with your assessment. You might very well end up being right, I just don't think there's much to back up your contentions.

[ElNono]

If you want to see it that way, I can't stop you.
But it's my outlook; and I don't see it that way.
I see strong indications that Trump will win Florida.
It's not even a state I really worry about at this point.
If it were merely a hunch, I wouldn't be in that boat.

Your outlook is perfectly fine, even if I don't agree with it.

Again, we don't have a whole lot to work with here, so everybody more or less is trying to gauge things with what we know.

[ElNono]

Again, this isn't personal. I frankly have had Florida on the Trump column for a while, but not 4-10 points, and not because of what you list.

I do think Miami-Dade won't come out in force, and that's pretty much the end of any Biden hopes.

[Spurtacular]

Not really, the only verifiable numbers are early voting. The rest is one giant hunch.

minorities are much stronger for Trump this time around; and Florida has a lot of blacks and Hispanics. <-- opinion
Despite the media lies, I've seen nothing to state that seniors are drastically for Biden. <-- opinion
All and all I think 4-10 percent or more for Trump is looking like a strong possibility. <-- opinion
As well, the polling stations are being more fairly ran than in other places. Ballot box stuffing is less of a concern than other places. <-- opinion




I think your haste to pigeonhole outlooks that make you mad as (mere) opinion is telling.
I'm telling you what I'm observing. It doesn't mean I'm infallible. It just means this is what I'm processing.
You don't have counter arguments, so you're just trying to diminish my outlook. It's fine if you want to go that route.
But I think it's bordering on pedantic.

[Spurtacular]

I do think it would be extremely worrying for Trump if he can't win Florida. Pretty much means the race is over for him. I can see how Trump voters would be worried about that.

I think he'll win by over 27 electoral votes. But that is based on the scenario in which he wins Florida. Florida is very much a bell weather state, so I think it's unlikely he loses Florida and wins the EC.

[ElNono]

I think your haste to pigeonhole outlooks that make you mad as (mere) opinion is telling.
I'm telling you what I'm observing. It doesn't mean I'm infallible. It just means this is what I'm processing.
You don't have counter arguments, so you're just trying to diminish my outlook. It's fine if you want to go that route.
But I think it's bordering on pedantic.

Having an opinion is not a crime, or a slight or anything like that. I don't know why you think I'm somewhat downgrading your opinion by calling it as such.

We're simply arguing about different views. I think the Dems chances hinge much more on Biden being able to drive the vote in the populous areas, and I don't think it has that much to do with minorities, for example.
I also think a 10 point difference for Trump is daydreaming.

That's my opinion. It's based mostly on previous wins by Democrats in that state, and I think it clearly points to having a candidate that can drive the vote. I don't think Biden is that guy, but maybe I'm wrong.

[Spurtacular]

That's exactly what it means. It's one giant "trust me, I know what I'm saying". Well, I disagree with your assessment. You might very well end up being right, I just don't think there's much to back up your contentions.

Trust me / don't trust me; it's not my problem. I don't implicitly trust you; but I don't make a deal of it.

But I don't think you would generally just make up numbers either. Frankly, I don't see the point in arguing that way. One will always know any possible W is built on a boldfaced lie. Only sociopaths do that sh**. Neither of us are in that boat. Others who shall not be named are in that boat frankly.

[Spurtacular]

Having an opinion is not a crime, or a slight or anything like that. I don't know why you think I'm somewhat downgrading your opinion by calling it as such.

We're simply arguing about different views. I think the Dems chances hinge much more on Biden being able to drive the vote in the populous areas, and I don't think it has that much to do with minorities, for example.
I also think a 10 point difference for Trump is daydreaming.

That's my opinion. It's based mostly on previous wins by Democrats in that state, and I think it clearly points to having a candidate that can drive the vote. I don't think Biden is that guy, but maybe I'm wrong.

Well, there's no real need to say this or that is opinion as if I don't know these basic definitions. :lol

Sure, Dems can possibly win if they get huge voter turnout in theory. Though I'd still point out that's very optimistic. The party split is roughly 50/50 and you're seeing which side has excitement and which side doesn't. As Reck surprisingly noted correctly, it would hinge on Biden being able to win NPAs (No Party Affiliation) voters at a better clip than Trump does. In 2016, Trump received much more of those votes nationally than Hillary did. I don't know the tally for Florida in 2016 on that front.

[ElNono]

Trust me / don't trust me; it's not my problem. I don't implicitly trust you; but I don't make a deal of it.

But I don't think you would generally just make up numbers either. Frankly, I don't see the point in arguing that way. One will always know any possible W is built on a boldfaced lie. Only sociopaths do that sh**. Neither of us are in that boat. Others who shall not be named are in that boat frankly.

I didn't say you were wrong or a liar either, tbh... that's why I don't get why you're worked up about it.

[Spurtacular]

I didn't say you were wrong or a liar either, tbh... that's why I don't get why you're worked up about it.

I'm cool. Stepping down from my pedestal.

[ElNono]

Well, there's no real need to say this or that is opinion as if I don't know these basic definitions. :lol

Sure, Dems can possibly win if they get huge voter turnout in theory. Though I'd still point out that's very optimistic. The party split is roughly 50/50 and you're seeing which side has excitement and which side doesn't. As Reck surprisingly noted correctly, it would hinge on Biden being able to win NPAs (No Party Affiliation) voters at a better clip than Trump does. In 2016, Trump received much more of those votes nationally than Hillary did. I don't know the tally for Florida in 2016 on that front.

I don't think Biden can drive turnout, but I can see Trump driving turnout for him, which is a different story altogether.

That's probably the story on this election. We're having record turnout pretty much everywhere, the real question is if that measurably increased turnout is largely to vote for or against POTUS. I really can't answer that question objectively right now.

[Spurtacular]

I don't think Biden can drive turnout, but I can see Trump driving turnout for him, which is a different story altogether.

That's probably the story on this election. We're having record turnout pretty much everywhere, the real question is if that measurably increased turnout is largely to vote for or against POTUS. I really can't answer that question objectively right now.

Saw it said somewhere that that's the vote. For or against Trump. "Nobody" is voting for Biden. Of course that's overstated because there are still a good number of hardcore Democrats. The overarching debate(s) regard their corruption and whether they've went too far left.

[ElNono]

Saw it said somewhere that that's the vote. For or against Trump. "Nobody" is voting for Biden. Of course that's overstated because there are still a good number of hardcore Democrats. The overarching debate(s) regard their corruption and whether they've went too far left.

Dems have a 30% base that will vote for whoever the candidate is... much like the GOP has a 30% that will do the same. What's in the middle is what eventually define elections.

[Spurtacular]

Dems have a 30% base that will vote for whoever the candidate is... much like the GOP has a 30% that will do the same. What's in the middle is what eventually define elections.

New party registrations are favoring Republicans. That's a bad development for a party (Democrats) that was already losing the independent vote. The problem is Democrats just didn't have anything great to offer. Yes, that's an opinion. Lite would tell you how great Pocohantas is. This cycle, the momentum is on the Republicans side. I would bet on it continuing through a second Trump term. After that, it's more likely to get dicey. Historically, Republicans are a do nothing party. They can make gains when the spotlight is on the in-power Democrats doing their adverse actions. They then wither when the ball is in their court.

[ElNono]

New party registrations are favoring Republicans. That's a bad development for a party (Democrats) that was already losing the independent vote.
The problem is Democrats just didn't have anything great to offer. Yes, that's an opinion. Lite would tell you how great Pocohantas is.
This cycle, the momentum is on the Republicans side. I would bet on it continuing through a second Trump term. After that, it's more likely to get dicey. Historically, Republicans are a do nothing party. They can make gains when the spotlight is on the in-power Democrats. They then wither when the ball is in their court.

I don't think Democrats are losing the independent voters at all, mostly because I don't think independent voters stay with a faction or the other. They're generally opportunistic voters, based on "what have you done for me lately".
If the mid-terms are any indication, interdependent voters had no problem whatsoever with Democrats. One would actually argue the opposite, they supported them.

As far as republican momentum, I would completely disagree. Here's a party, from Congress to the Executive, that pretty much abandoned any kind of help or assistance to the general population in a once in a lifetime health crisis.
On top of that, the POTUS is a weak candidate, largely unpopular throughout his 4 years. Frankly, I can't think of an easier situation for Democrats to win the Presidency.

But, if there's a party that can fumble this, it's definitely them.

[Bogie]

Not even sure why you're upset, tbh...


because trumps election is all he has. Literally lives on disability, and has been scared into hating anything different.

Like most of the trumper sect, policy and ethics and truth and logic no longer matter. Trump represents a win to someone like derp and ducks and chris who have never experienced any type of real success. He gives them a sense of belonging to a group that they have never had, at least in their adult lives. ironically, there is nothing social or healthy about their allegiance, they live with their parents, and never actually interact with the outside world.

instead the win comes from the way they can feel like they are punishing the people that scare them.

[Splits]

If the exact same polling errors of 2016 occurred this year, Biden is at 335:

https://i.imgur.com/wtLvCCi.png

[Rummpd]

If the exact same polling errors of 2016 occurred this year, Biden is at 335:

https://i.imgur.com/wtLvCCi.png


You are right and it will seemingly take an incredible run of events for him to blow it unless state polling is wrong in several places.


If it is close this comes into play and will be some serious turmoil.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/lawyers-prepare-for-long-trump-biden-fight-in-pennsylvania-after-election-day/ar-BB1azMRd

[Will Hunting]

NY Times/Sienna just released their final polls before the election:

PA - Biden +6
WI - Biden +11
AZ - Biden +6
FL - Biden +3

NY Times imo has been the best pollster at weighing for dumb uneducated MAGAtards this cycle, so these are good numbers for Biden. I’m more and more confident he wins Wisconsin and Michigan by a wide enough margin where it’s called on election night and PA is the only state that could get decided in court.

[Reck]

Any Democrat holding to Florida is in big denial.
You have better shots in GA, AZ, NC, MI, WI, PA if you're looking to chip at Trump's Red Firewall.

:lol red firewall

[Reck]

NY Times/Sienna just released their final polls before the election:

PA - Biden +6
WI - Biden +11
AZ - Biden +6
FL - Biden +3

NY Times imo has been the best pollster at weighing for dumb uneducated MAGAtards this cycle, so these are good numbers for Biden. I’m more and more confident he wins Wisconsin and Michigan by a wide enough margin where it’s called on election night and PA is the only state that could get decided in court.

Maybe Wisconsin 17 point lead wasnt such an outlier the other day after all.

11 points is stout. 6 points in Arizona is not bad either.

[Will Hunting]

Maybe Wisconsin 17 point lead wasnt such an outlier the other day after all.

11 points is stout. 6 points in Arizona is not bad either.
Holy shit I didn’t realize how big the sampling was for these polls either (1,800 LV in PA is a lot for a high quality pollster doing live phone calls). NY Times definitely put a lot of effort into make sure these polls were accurate.

[Rummpd]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/01/how-trump-could-win-election-433703

Gives DT about a 1/10 chance which is about right at this point.

[pgardn]

Yeah it’s well within the MOE (like every other Florida poll).

im driving up to PA early tomorrow morning to canvass for Joe and help build on that lead. Never thought Sleepy Joe would be the candidate I support so enthusiastically but here we are.

This is the stuff.

Hell yes.
Godspeed.

[pgardn]

Not even sure why you're upset, tbh...

Because I called him out.
Again.

He can redirect his anger on someone who has the patience to entertain him.
And sorry No No, he is a flat out liar who refuses to back anything up with a link.
We can all play prognosticators with 2 choices, it’s not hard to call a coin flip. But when we have people who actually try to determine outcomes professionally, and give you their methods, they are more likely to be correct than someone who sits in isolation ruminating over YouTube videos and tweets.

Derp takes 2016 as his single event of experts getting a something wrong and then claims expertise because his wish came true. If the same people who are good at this make the same mistakes they made in the 2016 analysis, we have something interesting. I gave him an article that claimed this with their basic argument of the flaws in polling sample techniques. He blew this article off and gave zero back other than I read, I really do. And gives zero back.

He uses basic primal urge instincts and that’s fine, just admit it. Some people have jobs that depend on being correct when there are way more than 2 possible outcomes. And can smell this type of self proclaimed expertise from a mile off. He smells, no reeks, of grandiose self delusion.

[boutons_deux]

I read that Hillary's +3M votes could be +8M for Joe

[pgardn]

Because I called him out.
Again.

He can redirect his anger on someone who has the patience to entertain him.
And sorry No No, he is a flat out liar who refuses to back anything up with a link.
We can all play prognosticators with 2 choices, it’s not hard to call a coin flip. But when we have people who actually try to determine outcomes professionally, and give you their methods, they are more likely to be correct than someone who sits in isolation ruminating over YouTube videos and tweets.

Derp takes 2016 as his single event of experts getting a something wrong and then claims expertise because his wish came true. If the same people who are good at this make the same mistakes they made in the 2016 analysis, we have something interesting. I gave him an article that claimed this with their basic argument of the flaws in polling sample techniques. He blew this article off and gave zero back other than I read, I really do. And gives zero back.

He uses basic primal urge instincts and that’s fine, just admit it. Some people have jobs that depend on being correct when there are way more than 2 possible outcomes. And can smell this type of self proclaimed expertise from a mile off. He smells, no reeks, of grandiose self delusion.

Further to El No No
I also read the section just to look for articles or the latest prognostications with a link. it’s very helpful when others do good work and find good articles and polls that can be looked up because I am not everywhere at once unlike the all knowing derptoid

[RandomGuy]

I’ll be in Philly. Not too worried about angry gun toting MAGAtards there.

You need to see the clip of Big Gretch at the Michigan rally today if you haven’t already.

Thanks for posting that it was fun.

[RandomGuy]

Early vote, Dems will be only 100K up or possibly less going into election day. The Repubs will win the day easily.
As well, minorities are much stronger for Trump this time around; and Florida has a lot of blacks and Hispanics.
Despite the media lies, I've seen nothing to state that seniors are drastically for Biden. In fact, I was telling you that
I think many will be pleased with his lowering premiums by something like 43 percent.
You don't vote against something that is working. Colleges not in progress. The vote parties aren't there as much.
Furthermore, Democrats have zero ground game in Florida b/c they're being COVID snowflakes.
Yes, Dems may make compensation with mail-in voting; but I was seeing stuff about that not even being strong.
All and all I think 4-10 percent or more for Trump is looking like a strong possibility.
As well, the polling stations are being more fairly ran than in other places. Ballot box stuffing is less of a concern than other places.


..I've present [sic] empirical data...


[that's not empirical, here's the definition]


[butthurt about being called out presenting an opinion as empirical fact]

:rollin

That is an opinion. The only way you can present that as empirical, is if you can present objectively verifiable data to support your statement, by definition.

Link or STFU.

[pgardn]

You are right and it will seemingly take an incredible run of events for him to blow it unless state polling is wrong in several places.


If it is close this comes into play and will be some serious turmoil.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/lawyers-prepare-for-long-trump-biden-fight-in-pennsylvania-after-election-day/ar-BB1azMRd

Over 3000 lawsuits BEFORE he became president.
This was a huge warning our president will try anything to satisfy HIS needy personality.

[Splits]

Despite the media lies, I've seen nothing to state that seniors are drastically for Biden. In fact, I was telling you that
I think many will be pleased with his lowering premiums by something like 43 percent.

Even if the 43% nonsense were true (it's not), why would seniors care about premiums?

[Spurtacular]

Maybe Wisconsin 17 point lead wasnt such an outlier the other day after all.

11 points is stout. 6 points in Arizona is not bad either.

SMH. You learned jack shit from 2016.

Trannies are the stupidest people on the face of this planet.

[Reck]

SMH. You learned jack shit from 2016.

Trannies are the stupidest people on the face of this planet.

Man, you woke up to a bad day news. Terrible polling data for you and Trump.

Stop being a homophobe and accept who you are and want to be, btw.

[Spurtacular]

Man, you woke up to a bad day news. Terrible polling data for you and Trump.

Stop being a homophobe and accept who you are and want to be, btw.

:lol Did you just call yourself a homo?

:lmao :rollin

[Reck]

:lol Did you just call yourself a homo?

:lmao :rollin

You also woke up stupider.

[Spurtacular]

You also woke up stupider.

I didn't call you a homo. You called yourself a homo.

[Joseph Kony]

:lol Did you just call yourself a homo?

:lmao :rollin
once again proving you have the IQ of a potato :lol

[ChumpDumper]

*potatoe

[Will Hunting]

This is the stuff.

Hell yes.
Godspeed.
Been at it most of the morning. You’d be shocked how many volunteers are out canvassing here. There are people who flew in from California just to go door knocking in the Philly slums while it’s pouring outside. The campaign official I spoke to says that there are roughly ~2500 volunteers canvassing in the state this weekend.

Ill take that kind of enthusiasm over MAGA rally enthusiasm.

[Reck]

Been at it most of the morning. You’d be shocked how many volunteers are out canvassing here. There are people who flew in from California just to go door knocking in the Philly slums while it’s pouring outside. The campaign official I spoke to says that there are roughly ~2500 volunteers canvassing in the state this weekend.

Ill take that kind of enthusiasm over MAGA rally enthusiasm.

What is the reception? Ya'll not getting ran out with baseball bats? Are blacks interested in going out to vote?

[Spurtacular]

Been at it most of the morning. You’d be shocked how many volunteers are out canvassing here. There are people who flew in from California just to go door knocking in the Philly slums while it’s pouring outside. The campaign official I spoke to says that there are roughly ~2500 volunteers canvassing in the state this weekend.

Ill take that kind of enthusiasm over MAGA rally enthusiasm.

:lol "volunteers"
:lol "enthusiasm"

[Will Hunting]

What is the reception? Ya'll not getting ran out with baseball bats? Are blacks interested in going out to vote?
It’s a mixed bag. I’m clearly knocking on the door of people who aren’t high propensity voters, but that tells me the Biden campaign actually has the data operation Shillary didn’t have. There’s a centralized platform you download as an app that allows you to walk up to each persons house and see the full history of every previous time the Biden campaign or other Democrat affiliated groups have tried to contact them, and you can skip over the house of people who already voted.

The fact Hillary’s campaign didn’t have this kind of operation 4 years ago was definitely a huge factor in her losing.

[Spurtacular]

It’s a mixed bag. I’m clearly knocking on the door of people who aren’t high propensity voters, but that tells me the Biden campaign actually has the data operation Shillary didn’t have. There’s a centralized platform you download as an app that allows you to walk up to each persons house and see the full history of every previous time the Biden campaign or other Democrat affiliated groups have tried to contact them, and you can skip over the house of people who already voted.

The fact Hillary’s campaign didn’t have this kind of operation 4 years ago was definitely a huge factor in her losing.

:lol I can't imagine what is wrong in your life that you want to devote man hours to getting such a corrupt politician into The People's House.

[Ef-man]

Here is why people want change.

https://twitter.com/calgirl98765/status/1322199795931344896

[MASSA]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA

[Ef-man]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1322727561168785408

[Will Hunting]

:lol I can't imagine what is wrong in your life that you want to devote man hours to getting such a corrupt politician into The People's House.
:lmao says the guy who spends every waking moment of his life arguing on behalf of the most corrupt president in American history on an internet basketball forum

[Spurtacular]

:lmao says the guy who spends every waking moment of his life arguing on behalf of the most corrupt president in American history on an internet basketball forum

We're talking about real verifiable corruption, not innuendo. You might as well sign up for the CCP. :lol

[Spurtacular]

https://gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/059/393/920/original/2e7cf17a5ac03236.png?1604261771

[Reck]

https://gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/059/393/920/original/2e7cf17a5ac03236.png?1604261771

What’s your point?

[Spurtacular]

What’s your point?

The tears are coming.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6edMVSoWO1A

[pgardn]

We're talking about real verifiable corruption, not innuendo. You might as well sign up for the CCP. :lol

Like you even have a clue what the bolded means Hunter, hunter.
fckn hypocrite.

[pgardn]

Been at it most of the morning. You’d be shocked how many volunteers are out canvassing here. There are people who flew in from California just to go door knocking in the Philly slums while it’s pouring outside. The campaign official I spoke to says that there are roughly ~2500 volunteers canvassing in the state this weekend.

Ill take that kind of enthusiasm over MAGA rally enthusiasm.

Excellent work.
Gotta feel good.

[Spurtacular]

Like you even have a clue what the bolded means Hunter, hunter.
fckn hypocrite.

Hunter Biden hurt your feelings.

[pgardn]

Hunter Biden hurt your feelings.

Sure.

If he did something wrong, go to jail. Does he work for the president?

Now the guy Trump hired, Trump Jr., he could have real skeletons.
But we wont get it all till after the president loses.
then, to jail, right next to Cohen.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao I’d never seen what the guy who runs the Trangeldangel poll looks like until now.

https://radio.foxnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/robert-cahaly.jpg

:lmao this guy being a polling expert

[Ef-man]

:lmao
Making the face of a baby shitting himself and enjoying it.



:lmao I’d never seen what the guy who runs the Trangeldangel poll looks like until now.

https://radio.foxnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/robert-cahaly.jpg

:lmao this guy being a polling expert

[ChumpDumper]

We're talking about real verifiable corruption, not innuendo. You might as well sign up for the CCP. :lolShow us the verification.

[ElNono]

:lmao I’d never seen what the guy who runs the Trangeldangel poll looks like until now.

https://radio.foxnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/robert-cahaly.jpg

:lmao this guy being a polling expert

:lol don't mock Traflegluglu!

[Spurtacular]

Sure.

If he did something wrong, go to jail. Does he work for the president?

Now the guy Trump hired, Trump Jr., he could have real skeletons.
But we wont get it all till after the president loses.
then, to jail, right next to Cohen.

:lol :cry Real skeletons :cry

Pedophilia, crack, communists is Biden's skeletons.

BTFO'd Less Than Blake. Enjoy your Huge L, you delusional idiot.

[Reck]

Derp making google’s job easy for them by talking about pedo shit on an open board. You better clear your shit, derp. :lol

[Spurtacular]

Show us the verification.

Have the Bidend denied that it's Hunter's laptop?

[Spurtacular]

Derp making google’s job easy for them by talking about pedo shit on an open board. You better clear your shit, derp. :lol

I don't do that sh**, Creepy Reck.

[Reck]

:lmao I’d never seen what the guy who runs the Trangeldangel poll looks like until now.

https://radio.foxnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/robert-cahaly.jpg

:lmao this guy being a polling expert


The Trafalgar Group delivers its polling questionnaires utilizing a mix of six different methods:


Live callers
Integrated voice response
Text messages
Emails
Two other proprietary digital methods they don’t share publicly.

:lol admitting to to shitty methodology and then saying two of them are super duper secrets.

[pgardn]

Have the Bidend denied that it's Hunter's laptop?

They got nothing.
AND...
He is NOT the president's son WORKING FOR the president in a capacity that involves OUR GOVERNMENT.

Trump Jr. is your target slugbrain.

[Reck]

I don't do that sh**, Creepy Reck.

Looks like you wrote it. Oops

[Joseph Kony]

1323022023078150149

[ChumpDumper]

Have the Bidend denied that it's Hunter's laptop?derp folds

No verification.

[Will Hunting]

1323022023078150149
:wow those sample sizes

[Reck]

1323022023078150149

Hell of a useful tool.

:lol old white trash love Trump. Biden beating this guy on almost all other categories.

[Spurtacular]

Looks like you wrote it. Oops

You're a sad sac.

[Spurtacular]

derp folds

No verification.

You do.

Your candidate can't even deny the laptop accusations.
This is what your life comes down to. Pretty sad.

[ChumpDumper]

You do.

Your candidate can't even deny that the laptop accusations.
Sad. This is what your life comes down to. Pretty sad.derp folds

No verification.

Fake news.

Sad.

Lies.

YouTubes.

QAnon212.

lol

[pgardn]

You do.

Your candidate can't even deny that the laptop accusations.
Sad. This is what your life comes down to. Pretty sad.

I think you need to look into the Joe Biden's father and his relationship with Fidel Castro.
Go now. This is BIG. Have TED talk to Trump, it should help you start the investigation.

[Ef-man]

:lmao
Sadness expert derp craving moar copium, par.



You do.

Your candidate can't even deny the laptop accusations.
This is what your life comes down to. Pretty sad.

[MASSA]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA

[DMX7]

I think you need to look into the Joe Biden's father and his relationship with Fidel Castro.
Go now. This is BIG. Have TED talk to Trump, it should help you start the investigation.

wow, wow, wow... hold on. Ted still hasn't answered Trump's questions about what his father was doing with crazy LEE HARVEY OSWALD!!!

[Ef-man]

Derp with the coping issues. Never gets old!

:tu

[ChumpDumper]

:lol derp padding his alt's post count.

[pgardn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA

derpelganger

[Winehole23]

With redistricting coming up next year, this election is a big deal for Texas Dems.


After flipping 12 [Texas] House [of Representatives] seats in 2018, Democrats need to flip only nine more this year in order to take control of the lower chamber, which would give them an official lever of power in state government for the first time in nearly 20 years.https://www.texasobserver.org/if-not-now-when-dems-fight-for-the-house-will-shape-texas-politics-for-years/

[Will Hunting]

Every time I see Cuban MAGA voters I continue to realize how smart Castro was for using South Florida as a trashcan to dump all the right wing radicals in Cuba. It’s a shame we willingly took those filthy animals in.

[Spurtacular]

derp folds

No verification.

Fake news.

Sad.

Lies.

YouTubes.

QAnon212.

lol

Bla bla. Joe exposed. Deal with it. I'm not your therapist.

[ChumpDumper]

Bla bla. Joe exposed. Deal with it. I'm not your therapist.No, you don't have any education at all.

You're really, really stupid.

[Spurtacular]

No, you don't have any education at all.

You're really, really stupid.

Channeling your inner blake won't make you feel better.

[ChumpDumper]

Channeling your inner blake won't make you feel better.I feel great.

You're coping.

Because you're derp.

[Bogie]

No, you don't have any education at all.

You're really, really stupid.


Hey hey hey. He audited a legal class at a community college once.

[daslicer]

Every time I see Cuban MAGA voters I continue to realize how smart Castro was for using South Florida as a trashcan to dump all the right wing radicals in Cuba. It’s a shame we willingly took those filthy animals in.

Agreed I have been feeling the same way about Cubans for the last 20 years ever since the Elian Gonzalez saga.

[RD2191]

Every time I see Cuban MAGA voters I continue to realize how smart Castro was for using South Florida as a trashcan to dump all the right wing radicals in Cuba. It’s a shame we willingly took those filthy animals in.
:loltbh

[Spurtacular]

Every time I see Cuban MAGA voters I continue to realize how smart Castro was for using South Florida as a trashcan to dump all the right wing radicals in Cuba. It’s a shame we willingly took those filthy animals in.

Commies dump whomever doesn't fall in line, Comrade Will.

[ElNono]

Every time I see Cuban MAGA voters I continue to realize how smart Castro was for using South Florida as a trashcan to dump all the right wing radicals in Cuba. It’s a shame we willingly took those filthy animals in.

Worked both ways... that's the only block of giant amnesty that Republicans love. Which goes to show the hypocrisy: they only hate immigrants that don't vote for them...

[RandomGuy]

:wow those sample sizes

It is beginning to look like Trump is planning on simply declaring victory on the 3rd, and simply ignoring the results of the election. Holy fuckballs.

(moved his election night party from his hotel to the fortress of the whitehouse)

[pgardn]

With redistricting coming up next year, this election is a big deal for Texas Dems.

https://www.texasobserver.org/if-not-now-when-dems-fight-for-the-house-will-shape-texas-politics-for-years/


good stuff thanks Winehole

I was wondering where the map drawing controversy had gone

But if the Legislature fails to draw a new congressional map—which after the Census count, will likely include adding at least two new districts—the courts will draw the map, which could be a more preferable outcome for Democrats.“If they control the Texas House, [Democrats] can effectively force the issue into courts by refusing to go along with a Republican map,” says Michael Li (https://www.texasobserver.org/meet-michael-li-redistricting-guru/), a redistricting expert and senior counsel at the Brennan Center. “[The courts] don’t draw the perfect map but they also don’t draw a wildly discriminatory map. It won’t be perfect but it would be a thousand times fairer.”

[pgardn]

Every time I see Cuban MAGA voters I continue to realize how smart Castro was for using South Florida as a trashcan to dump all the right wing radicals in Cuba. It’s a shame we willingly took those filthy animals in.

I think it was the second Godfather movie in which the Cubans (whose relatives are here now) tried to convince Michael Corleone to invest in their hotels. He declined as he witnessed what the business class and the police were doing to the working class. Bad investment revolution incoming.
then I read about it and it became pretty clear someone like Fidel could take over. Conservative money mongers just don’t get it sometimes. It doesn’t matter where you are.

[RandomGuy]

1. Trump will win in a landslide unless the mail-in fraud is more potent than I would hope.
2. If Trump wins Florida, he probably wins.
3. If Trump wins five Rust Belt States or at least four along with Minnesota, he probably wins.
4. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are all going to be red by a solid margin.
5. Arizona and North Carolina are the states the Democrats have the best chance at flipping.
6. New Hampshire will likely go for Biden.
7. Not counting toss-up New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota are the three states that Trump has the best chance at flipping.

The core of modern conservatism is dishonesty. and violence.

Trump will declare victory on election night, and will attempt to nullify as many votes as possible through court challenges, in an outright fascist power grab. He will decry any state that continues to count votes as being rigged.

He will hunker down at the whitehouse and will promote outright violence. The right-wing in this country will answer that call, when the left comes out to protest the power grab.

[Winehole23]

1323298398041186304

[Splits]

1323298398041186304

And they can't start counting these until tomorrow morning, that's 40% of the total 2016 vote, it will take days. So tomorrow night Trump will definitely have a lead in PA with 1m+ votes outstanding which are overwhelmingly (D)

[Spurtacular]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8rz3fL9K98

[Reck]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8rz3fL9K98

lol no

[Winehole23]

And they can't start counting these until tomorrow morning, that's 40% of the total 2016 vote, it will take days. So tomorrow night Trump will definitely have a lead in PA with 1m+ votes outstanding which are overwhelmingly (D)The only thing not normal about that is the volume of votes. States have 35 days from election day to certify results.

(Declaring victory before votes have been counted is shithole republic stuff.)

[Winehole23]

OTOH, heavy early returns from majority Democratic Party consitutuencies in PA could cause red team to switch its message to "count all the votes."

1323336420619030528

[Will Hunting]

As best as I can tell, the majority of black voters in Philly still haven’t voted but are very much planning to vote tomorrow. I think we’re seeing record turnout in Philadelphia county this year.

[Ef-man]

Originally Posted by spurraider21
so is steph curry what jimmer fans imagined jimmer would be like


Originally Posted by drep
Pretty much.

Based on derp's talent assessment capability shown above, whatever derp's outlook for the election is, I pick the opposite.

:lmao

[Winehole23]

1323350200338026501

[Joseph Kony]

1323114178631110666

[Joseph Kony]

1323451724825329664

[Joseph Kony]

1323406240383381506

[Reck]

1323350200338026501

Biden’s camp must have seen something interesting in their internals to add a last minute trip to Ohio.

I would just love for a neat surprise where he wins it. Doubt it but if Ohio is close then that means PA must be wrapped up.

[Will Hunting]

Biden’s camp must have seen something interesting in their internals to add a last minute trip to Ohio.

I would just love for a neat surprise where he wins it. Doubt it but if Ohio is close then that means PA must be wrapped up.
Yeah I also think it means good things for Iowa too. IMO Ohio is a tinge more red than Iowa with a lot of demo overlap.

[ducks]

Hannity: Democrats in a 'full-fledged panic' after Trump barnstorms swing states to massive crowds

https://www.foxnews.com/media/hannity-2020-election-democrats-full-fledged-panic-biden-trump

[DMC]

As best as I can tell, the majority of black voters in Philly still haven’t voted but are very much planning to vote tomorrow. I think we’re seeing record turnout in Philadelphia county this year.

It's a bit sad actually. No matter who wins, they'll still be targeted by cops. There won't ever be any real police reform as long as police unions exist.

[Will Hunting]

There won't ever be any real police reform as long as police unions exist.
As long as they exist in anything close to their current form, probably.

[Reck]

Hannity: Democrats in a 'full-fledged panic' after Trump barnstorms swing states to massive crowds

https://www.foxnews.com/media/hannity-2020-election-democrats-full-fledged-panic-biden-trump


I actually have sources within the Democratic Party


"Every Democratic operative in the country is like, 'What did we just do?'


dawned on all of them that President Trump can absolutely win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan again."

Literally none of that happened. lol

He over did it with winning PA, Michigan and Wisconsin. These liars suck at....well, lying.

[DarrinS]

1323458667002400768

[Reck]

1323458667002400768

I'm sure the whole of Wisconsin is tune in right now. :tu

[Winehole23]

1323458667002400768It's all over but the crying, Darrin.

[Spurtacular]

It's all over but the crying, Darrin.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zwHW0ietNoU/hqdefault.jpg

[hombre]

It's super fucked-up that so many of you are going to have to hide the fact that you were dumb enough to fall for Russian propaganda.

[Warlord23]

Funny thing about Hannity ... he brings wacky pollsters like Trafalgar to hype up Trump's chances while completely ignoring Fox News' own polls. This is a repeat of 2012 - Dick Morris talked about a Romney landslide on every Fox opinion show

Hannity knows that Trump's goose is cooked ... at this point he's the violin-player on Trump's Titanic

[Rummpd]

DT day vs. JB day I got a feeling we are not knowing today who won. Was in PA within last few weeks and it is like two worlds - around PA all Biden and near Pittsburg all Trump. Overall many more Trump signs and MAGA supporters holding flags or small rallies around for what that is worth.

[ElNono]

DT day vs. JB day I got a feeling we are not knowing today who won. Was in PA within last few weeks and it is like two worlds - around PA all Biden and near Pittsburg all Trump. Overall many more Trump signs and MAGA supporters holding flags or small rallies around for what that is worth.

It's not complicated. PA was always a barometer because they're on the east coast, and polling places normally close there earlier. This time things will shift towards Florida, Georgia and other toss up east coast states that count ballots early.

This is why you hear things like "If PA goes this way, or FL goes that way then the odds of candidate X to win Arizona increase or decrease by this much". That's because if, say, Trump loses Florida and/or Georgia, people in Arizona might decide not to even bother waiting to vote.

Similarly if it's a close contest in the east coast, it might motivate some voters in the west coast toss up states to show up and try to make a difference.

[Splits]

It's not complicated. PA was always a barometer because they're on the east coast, and polling places normally close there earlier. This time things will shift towards Florida, Georgia and other toss up east coast states that count ballots early.

This is why you hear things like "If PA goes this way, or FL goes that way then the odds of candidate X to win Arizona increase or decrease by this much". That's because if, say, Trump loses Florida and/or Georgia, people in Arizona might decide not to even bother waiting to vote.

Similarly if it's a close contest in the east coast, it might motivate some voters in the west coast toss up states to show up and try to make a difference.

I doubt there is any meaningful pool of voters who wait until 2-3 hours until the polls close and look at the east coast results to determine whether they should vote.

[Winehole23]

ha ha

1323438772990709760

[ElNono]

I doubt there is any meaningful pool of voters who wait until 2-3 hours until the polls close and look at the east coast results to determine whether they should vote.

I'm actually with you on that, especially this year where people had plenty of time to vote.

[Rummpd]

Pick it now: which major network calls it first? Fox got it last time I recall

[Splits]

Pick it now: which major network calls it first? Fox got it last time I recall

Fox because none of the other networks will want to be accused of calling prematurely for Biden.

[MASSA]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA

[ChumpDumper]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA
You don't and you're coping, pussy.:lol

[Bogie]

You don't and you're coping, pussy.:lol


actually what’s funny is derp is so stupid he has actually posted that spam from his regular account before.

[Spurtacular]

https://media0.giphy.com/media/f742Jfmyvn0zWES04Y/200.gif

[ChumpDumper]

actually what’s funny is derp is so stupid he has actually posted that spam from his regular account before.I know. Look at him try to defend himself.:lol

[Spurtacular]

1323623712311095296

[tholdren]

I know. Look at him try to defend himself.:lol

Hide!!!

[Joseph Kony]

1. Trump will win in a landslide unless the mail-in fraud is more potent than I would hope.
2. If Trump wins Florida, he probably wins.
3. If Trump wins five Rust Belt States or at least four along with Minnesota, he probably wins.
4. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are all going to be red by a solid margin.
5. Arizona and North Carolina are the states the Democrats have the best chance at flipping.
6. New Hampshire will likely go for Biden.
7. Not counting toss-up New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota are the three states that Trump has the best chance at flipping.

:lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao

[Reck]

1323623712311095296

The carriage never arrived looks like

[spurraider21]

The carriage never arrived looks like
maybe they ran out of gas

[Spurtacular]

Updated.

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/JvPOB


On the nose with the possible exception of MN.

#StopTheSteal

[Leetonidas]

Still in denial :lol

[ChumpDumper]

On the nose with the possible exception of MN.

#StopTheStealQuite wrong, derp.

[ElNono]

Still in denial :lol

You hate to see it. People are talking about it.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/OvJLB

https://media.giphy.com/media/hhnpSxCjyXzHy/giphy.gif

This makes me feel better. I mean, I was wrong, but not that wrong.