2020 Election Poll Watch w/ 538

[Will Hunting]

The Foxconn snafu really hurt Trump in Wisconsin. That was supposed to be the boon for his campaign that brought factory jobs back to the state.

[Will Hunting]

Another congressional district poll that supports my theory that the statewide/national polling overcompensated for 2016 and shows Trump doing better than he's actually doing.

This poll shows Trump doing 11 points worse in AZ-06 than he did in 2016.

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[Spurminator]

Another congressional district poll that supports my theory that the statewide/national polling overcompensated for 2016 and shows Trump doing better than he's actually doing.

This poll shows Trump doing 11 points worse in AZ-06 than he did in 2016.

1321439406159548418

My concern is it seems like a lot of these district polls have a large percentage of independent or undecided. Like that poll for example only adds up to 86%. There's no way 14% of the vote is going towards third party, so the rest of that has to be made up somewhere.

[baseline bum]

A WaPo/ABC poll released today has Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin, which jumped the 538 average in Wisconsin up to a 9 point lead. The only way Biden loses Wisconsin is if Trump gets courts to stop counting absentee ballots that have already been received, there won't be enough absentee ballots thrown out because they weren't received on time to swing the state.

I'll put nothing past the Kavanaugh + Alito + COVID Barrett + Uncle Thomas + Gorsuch + Roberts court, especially when Kavanaugh was talking like Wisconsin needed to have a result by election night.

[baseline bum]

I just don't think Trump is popular in WI anymore, driving thru there.

Doesn't have to be if the state can throw out the right votes.

[Reck]

MN is more likely to flip to Trump than Trump keeping WI, that's my point. MN will be tighter than most think and Shillary won there by the skin of her teeth (Trump was leading there with 99% precincts in up until the day after).

So Biden, who is doing 100% better than Hillary accross the rustbelt will lose a state she won? That makes sense..

[Will Hunting]

My concern is it seems like a lot of these district polls have a large percentage of independent or undecided. Like that poll for example only adds up to 86%. There's no way 14% of the vote is going towards third party, so the rest of that has to be made up somewhere.
The poll had Biden beating Trump 49-48%, that's only 3% undecided/3rd party...

[Bogie]

Trump is in trouble.

Biden is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.


https://news.yahoo.com/biden-solid-lead-wisconsin-narrower-192851932.html


how fucking stupid does one have to be to think trump would handle the virus better? They’ve already admitted they’re doing nothing.

[Spurminator]

The poll had Biden beating Trump 49-48%, that's only 3% undecided/3rd party...

Nm you're right I misread.

[DMC]

sure they do if those beliefs affect an entire society made up of many not necessarily having those beliefs. And you can understand their objections and still question the impact a certain religious belief is having on a society. We can walk and chew gum. This is just a ridiculously stupid argument. You again set up false parameters.

Beliefs don't affect others. Actions do.

[Reck]

A WaPo/ABC poll released today has Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin, which jumped the 538 average in Wisconsin up to a 9 point lead. The only way Biden loses Wisconsin is if Trump gets courts to stop counting absentee ballots that have already been received, there won't be enough absentee ballots thrown out because they weren't received on time to swing the state.

That one might be an outlier. 17 Points seems like too much.

Today, the so called gold standard Marquette is releasing their final poll for Wisconsin. We'll see what that one says.

[Rummpd]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct28

Discounted by Silver (probably rightfully) but has DT back in lead.

[DMC]

mrs. Crutchfield shows her self again.
ocd and post master general; tough act but you go old lady

OCD is a clinical diagnosis, not a trait.

[Will Hunting]

I'll put nothing past the Kavanaugh + Alito + COVID Barrett + Uncle Thomas + Gorsuch + Roberts court, especially when Kavanaugh was talking like Wisconsin needed to have a result by election night.
Gorsuch blocking the MN-02 GOP candidate from delaying his election (when there was actually enough gray area in the stupid MN election law that the delay wouldn't have been very controversial) tells me he has limits to his corruption. Same w/ Roberts.

The Gorsuch opinion in Wisconsin is a ridiculous interpretation of the constitution but there actually is precedent for it. The concurring opinion Kavanaugh wrote was an incoherent joke written by someone who shouldn't be anywhere near the supreme court :lol

[Will Hunting]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct28

Discounted by Silver (probably rightfully) but has DT back in lead.
Another right wing poll you're promoting as an honest broker who swears he isn't a Trump supporter and doesn't care who wins :lol

[leemajors]

:lmao keep telling yourself that Edgelord_Messiah.

bro he drove through there, boots on the ground, tbh, imo

[LaMarcus Bryant]

covid barrett crofl

[Ef-man]

how fucking stupid does one have to be to think trump would handle the virus better? They’ve already admitted they’re doing nothing.

Cult followers drank that koolaid and nothing will convince them otherwise.

Ask derp.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'll put nothing past the Kavanaugh + Alito + COVID Barrett + Uncle Thomas + Gorsuch + Roberts court, especially when Kavanaugh was talking like Wisconsin needed to have a result by election night.

That would be fun if SCOTUS took over the country and ruled it constitutional for Trump to maintain power and be re-elected, Ahmedinejad vs Mousavi Iran 2009 style, at all costs up to and including using tear gas and batons to squelch the millennial protestors. :lmao

[Millennial_Messiah]

Gorsuch blocking the MN-02 GOP candidate from delaying his election (when there was actually enough gray area in the stupid MN election law that the delay wouldn't have been very controversial) tells me he has limits to his corruption. Same w/ Roberts.

The Gorsuch opinion in Wisconsin is a ridiculous interpretation of the constitution but there actually is precedent for it. The concurring opinion Kavanaugh wrote was an incoherent joke written by someone who shouldn't be anywhere near the supreme court :lol

yeah, I could see Gorsuch and (especially) Roberts sort of becoming John Paul Stevens esque and making a de facto 5-4 left leaning majority so the dems don't need to pack to courts at all.

[Spurminator]

yeah, I could see Gorsuch and (especially) Roberts sort of becoming John Paul Stevens esque and making a de facto 5-4 left leaning majority so the dems don't need to pack to courts at all.

They should do it anyway.

[Millennial_Messiah]

They should do it anyway.
no... the Nine Nazgul approach is tradition. Leave it as-is. Slippery slope.

[Will Hunting]

yeah, I could see Gorsuch and (especially) Roberts sort of becoming John Paul Stevens esque and making a de facto 5-4 left leaning majority so the dems don't need to pack to courts at all.
No, Gorsuch ruling against delaying a fucking election doesn't make him a "moderate" it just makes it so he's not a corrupt partisan hack the way Thomas/Alito are.

[Spurminator]

no... the Nine Nazgul approach is tradition. Leave it as-is. Slippery slope.

Sorry, traditions are dead. You can thank Mitch McConnell for that.

If Republicans want to preserve an arbitrary SCOTUS count, they can amend the Constitution. Maybe the Dems can work with them on that, after they pack the SCOTUS up to, say, 21.

[boutons_deux]

New poll shows Trump getting destroyed in the Lehigh Valley

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/27/1989846/-New-poll-shows-Trump-getting-destroyed-in-the-Lehigh-Valley

[baseline bum]

That would be fun if SCOTUS took over the country and ruled it constitutional for Trump to maintain power and be re-elected, Ahmedinejad vs Mousavi Iran 2009 style, at all costs up to and including using tear gas and batons to squelch the millennial protestors. :lmao

Especially if the people came and burned the SC and White House down after

[Will Hunting]

no... the Nine Nazgul approach is tradition. Leave it as-is. Slippery slope.
They established 9 SCOTUS justices in 1856 because at the time the country had 9 circuit courts and they wanted one SCOTUS justice to oversee each circuit court.

The US now has 13 circuit courts, so adding 4 SCOTUS justices would just be following the tradition set in 1856. It would be the originalist approach :tu

[Ef-man]

They established 9 SCOTUS justices in 1856 because at the time the country had 9 circuit courts and they wanted one SCOTUS justice to oversee each circuit court.

The US now has 13 circuit courts, so adding 4 SCOTUS justices would just be following the tradition set in 1856. It would be the originalist approach :tu

If we go full originalist, women and people of color cannot hold supreme court justice position.

[Will Hunting]

Monmouth just released a poll showing Biden up 5% in Georgia and Ossoff up 49%-46%.

If Ossoff is winning really need him to get above 50% to avoid a runoff.

[Reck]

Monmouth just released a poll showing Biden up 5% in Georgia and Ossoff up 49%-46%.

If Ossoff is winning really need him to get above 50% to avoid a runoff.

Warnock would also be hitting 50% if that Lieberman cuck wasn't there. He's currently polling at 48% against the bitch that traded stocks right before COVID hit.

I am hoping his "supporters" see what they're doing here. We can potentially get 2 dem senators from Georgia.

[Will Hunting]

Warnock would also be hitting 50% if that Lieberman cuck wasn't there. He's currently polling at 48% against the bitch that traded stocks right before COVID hit.

I am hoping his "supporters" see what they're doing here. We can potentially get 2 dem senators from Georgia.
Lieberman is just being obstructionist. His twitter account has <2k followers (call that a stupid measure if you want to but a serious senate candidate would be using twitter to promote his campaign) and he's not using social media at all. He knows he's losing but he's taking after his dad and refusing to drop out because he's butthurt Democrats don't like him.

Warnock might struggle to get to 50% either way though. Fortunately the other Republican in the race is even crazier than Loeffler is, and Warnock polls really well against both of them head to head. Loeffler and Collins have basically been in a contest of who can out crazy the other one more.

[Will Hunting]

Honestly if the holocaust wiped out the Lieberman gene pool I'd probably have a more favorable view of nazis. Kykewad Lieberman is the biggest reason the ACA didn't include a public option.

[pgardn]

Beliefs don't affect others. Actions do.

beliefs can and often do lead to actions

Seriously what stupid game are you playing here.
This is pitiful sophistry.

[pgardn]

OCD is a clinical diagnosis, not a trait.

Great, where did I say otherwise?

[TDfan2007]

And pretend to convert to Islam... :lol well I don't shave my beard much, so I guess I could pass for Muslim except I'm pretty pasty this year because minimal outdoor activity due to covid, so meh...

Still think Eastern Europe is the way to go. The experienced 40 years of communism and don't really like it. Their economy isn't great but that's good if you're an American coming in with US dollars, that can stretch you a long ways. Also, the women are hot and mediterranean and womanly, loyal, etc and not so progressive (but not so conservative in terms of being scared to take off their clothes)... just good women overall.

So you're looking for a loyal woman who will put out relatively quickly, but also not advocate for herself or those less fortunate than her? :lol

But also, if that's what you want, you might as well just stay here and ride it out, since I'm sure there are plenty of women who fit that description. Plus, if what you say is true, you're a well-off white male. It's not like your life is going to be impacted significantly regardless of who wins...just take your L and go back to masturbating after a run of Call of Duty...

[TDfan2007]

Honestly if the holocaust wiped out the Lieberman gene pool I'd probably have a more favorable view of nazis. Kykewad Lieberman is the biggest reason the ACA didn't include a public option.

It's amazing how nobody even mentions this when discussing the shortcomings of the ACA. History is weird...

[Millennial_Messiah]

Especially if the people came and burned the SC and White House down after

I don't think they burned down the Ayatollah craphole structures after Mousavi "lost" (got cheated). They just took it up the ass and continued to acquiesce to Shiite sharia law.

[ChumpDumper]

That one might be an outlier. 17 Points seems like too much.

Today, the so called gold standard Marquette is releasing their final poll for Wisconsin. We'll see what that one says.
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[Reck]

1321501374702637056

5 Point lead is ok I guess. Outside the Margin of error.

They had Hillary up 6 last time. But I'm assuming they have fixed their polling methodology by now.

[Will Hunting]

5 Point lead is ok I guess. Outside the Margin of error.

They had Hillary up 6 last time. But I'm assuming they have fixed their polling methodology by now.
How many undecideds did they have in 2016 though? I doubt they had Hillary in the high 40s.

[RandomGuy]

They established 9 SCOTUS justices in 1856 because at the time the country had 9 circuit courts and they wanted one SCOTUS justice to oversee each circuit court.

The US now has 13 circuit courts, so adding 4 SCOTUS justices would just be following the tradition set in 1856. It would be the originalist approach :tu

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[RandomGuy]

Want to preface that anyone who posts individual polls and handwaving at them claiming victory is an abject moron.

Similarly 538 had Clinton up two points and gave Trump a 35% chance to win in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote at a bit over 1% and Trump won the electoral college ie hitting his 35% chance. If you are too stupid or ignorant to understand what probabilities mean then you really shouldn't comment.

538 does not poll. They take all of the polls and adjust for actual bias and weight them based on precision. IOW if the aggregate of a pollster shows them 3 points in favor of one party over actual results they adjust the pollster to actual results. They give more weight to pollsters that are precise. IOW, They hit the same target consistently regardless of accurate.

A good example of this is Rasmussen. People note how they always bias towards GOP candidates and conclude their results should be thrown out. 538 does not. They adjust for the bias and grade them well because they have a consistent bias.

Anyhow. Their models include individual state polling and the way each state apportions their electors.

They give Biden an 86% chance to win and Trump a 13% chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

They have Biden up 9.2 points up in national polling

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Note that the standard error for polls is ~5%.

up to 88% today.

Flipped up a tick because Iowa tilted a bit to Biden.

Iowa.

Texas margin at 3%

[Reck]

1321151197907013632

:lol Rugged Perlman owning the cuckservatards per par.

[Ef-man]

beliefs can and often do lead to actions

Seriously what stupid game are you playing here.
This is pitiful sophistry.

His comments read like fortune cookies but without deep meaning.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao Trafelgagel with a new poll showing Kanye West getting 3% of the vote in Minnesota

1321589463731109888

[Reck]

:lmao Trafelgagel with a new poll showing Kanye West getting 3% of the vote in Minnesota

1321589463731109888

I like this new name you gave them. :lol

Biden being up 3 with them means he's actually up 8 or 10.

Not that it matters because they seem to just draw random numbers out of a hat.

:lmao Trump getting 30% of democrats

[TeyshaBlue]

That's really nothing but a garbage talking point. The "left behinds" that Trump courted in 2016 weren't really any better off pre-Covid. Trump's trade war dragged on far too long with hardly any benefits and tariffs were taxing the hell out of American businesses causing the cost of their raw materials to rise. Rather than eat that extra cost businesses had the choice of shelving expansion projects, laying off workers, or passing that extra cost to consumers. This lead to a manufacturing recession and rust belt states were bleeding jobs all through 2019. I lost count how many times Trump and Pence came to PA with their "war on coal" and "Trump digs coal" slogans. 4 years later coal is still on a death spiral which is why I haven't heard Trump or Pence mention it once on the campaign trail. Same goes for steel workers. Trump's tariffs were designed to help their industry but they backfired and the manufacturing recession had a domino effect on the steel industry causing low demand and their prices dropped drastically. Farmers also got hit hard by the trade war. Trump tried to shut them up with billions in bailouts but that money was just a bandaid and all that money was doing is keeping their lights on at this point. Their markets and supply chains have been destroyed in tariff retaliation. I laughed so hard last week when Trump went to Iowa and went on a rant about his Nobel Peace prize nomination not getting any news coverage because of Iowa's floods and crop problems :lol You could tell the people in the audience were like WTF. Trump and the RINOs also advertised 4-5% GDP growth with their tax cuts. Last year it was 2%. Trump and the "fiscal conservatives" cut government revenue on one hand and went on a spending spree on the other for 2% GDP :lol

The funny thing is if Trump had handled the Covid response like an adult he would have sailed to a 2nd term looking Presidential and on the perception from the uninformed that his smoke and mirrors economy was "the best ever". He botched it like he screws up everything else and now he's in a dogfight with Biden's corpse :lol

Truth. +10

[pgardn]

That's really nothing but a garbage talking point. The "left behinds" that Trump courted in 2016 weren't really any better off pre-Covid. Trump's trade war dragged on far too long with hardly any benefits and tariffs were taxing the hell out of American businesses causing the cost of their raw materials to rise. Rather than eat that extra cost businesses had the choice of shelving expansion projects, laying off workers, or passing that extra cost to consumers. This lead to a manufacturing recession and rust belt states were bleeding jobs all through 2019. I lost count how many times Trump and Pence came to PA with their "war on coal" and "Trump digs coal" slogans. 4 years later coal is still on a death spiral which is why I haven't heard Trump or Pence mention it once on the campaign trail. Same goes for steel workers. Trump's tariffs were designed to help their industry but they backfired and the manufacturing recession had a domino effect on the steel industry causing low demand and their prices dropped drastically. Farmers also got hit hard by the trade war. Trump tried to shut them up with billions in bailouts but that money was just a bandaid and all that money was doing is keeping their lights on at this point. Their markets and supply chains have been destroyed in tariff retaliation. I laughed so hard last week when Trump went to Iowa and went on a rant about his Nobel Peace prize nomination not getting any news coverage because of Iowa's floods and crop problems :lol You could tell the people in the audience were like WTF. Trump and the RINOs also advertised 4-5% GDP growth with their tax cuts. Last year it was 2%. Trump and the "fiscal conservatives" cut government revenue on one hand and went on a spending spree on the other for 2% GDP :lol

The funny thing is if Trump had handled the Covid response like an adult he would have sailed to a 2nd term looking Presidential and on the perception from the uninformed that his smoke and mirrors economy was "the best ever". He botched it like he screws up everything else and now he's in a dogfight with Biden's corpse :lol



Ok I learned stuff here.

Have an article that details all this or you just did your own condensed version?
Would like a read.

[Splits]

In the last 3 elections Silver has correctly predicted 144/150 states.

[Bogie]

:lmao Trafelgagel with a new poll showing Kanye West getting 3% of the vote in Minnesota

1321589463731109888

the very very best thing about that poll is the strong libertarian bent so many of those conservatives self identified as, so they didn’t have to claim their trumpism, still can’t beat Kanye

[Rummpd]

Polls generally on national about 4-5 point lead for Biden which if polls are right be enough to overcome state variances

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

[boutons_deux]

Dem congress must give DC and PR stAtehood, 4 more SenAtors

Increase Reps to about 1250, about the same population/Rep as 1929 / 438

[RandomGuy]

Dem congress must give DC and PR stAtehood, 4 more SenAtors

Increase Reps to about 1250, about the same population/Rep as 1929 / 438

Eyup. Let's add a couple more stars.