2020 Election Poll Watch w/ 538

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Want to preface that anyone who posts individual polls and handwaving at them claiming victory is an abject moron.

Similarly 538 had Clinton up two points and gave Trump a 35% chance to win in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote at a bit over 1% and Trump won the electoral college ie hitting his 35% chance. If you are too stupid or ignorant to understand what probabilities mean then you really shouldn't comment.

538 does not poll. They take all of the polls and adjust for actual bias and weight them based on precision. IOW if the aggregate of a pollster shows them 3 points in favor of one party over actual results they adjust the pollster to actual results. They give more weight to pollsters that are precise. IOW, They hit the same target consistently regardless of accurate.

A good example of this is Rasmussen. People note how they always bias towards GOP candidates and conclude their results should be thrown out. 538 does not. They adjust for the bias and grade them well because they have a consistent bias.

Anyhow. Their models include individual state polling and the way each state apportions their electors.

They give Biden an 86% chance to win and Trump a 13% chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

They have Biden up 9.2 points up in national polling

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Note that the standard error for polls is ~5%.

[Will Hunting]

It’s not good they have Biden’s odds trending slightly down the last few days, but I stil laugh at the 2016 comparisons from MAGAtards.

[Will Hunting]

The congressional district level polling is even better for Biden/Dems than national/state polling suggests. If Democrats are really winning MI-03, if they’re tied in TX-10 or if they’re only down 5% in IA-04, this election will be a historic landslide.

[ElNono]

Generally I like to filters their polls to A- and up... the noise just needs to go away. Most good polls also have a +-3% MoE.

Even giving POTUS the states where he's within the margin of error, his path to 270 is very complicated. Not impossible, but complicated.

[spurraider21]

They had trump closer to 30% on Election Day 2016 iirc

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It’s not good they have Biden’s odds trending slightly down the last few days, but I stil laugh at the 2016 comparisons from MAGAtards.

https://i.ibb.co/W29BjqV/538.png

Not too significant in context

[Will Hunting]

I still stand by my prediction that the pollsters overcorrected and skewed things in Trump’s favor this year while they didn’t fully account for demographic shifts in states like North Carolina.

[DarrinS]

Should be an interesting night

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Generally I like to filters their polls to A- and up... the noise just needs to go away. Most good polls also have a +-3% MoE.

Even giving POTUS the states where he's within the margin of error, his path to 270 is very complicated. Not impossible, but complicated.

Yup in comparison, if Biden wins a place like Florida or NC in the MoE, it's over for Trump.

[DMX7]

Biden polling keeps trending his way as of late in Texas. 538 give him 35% chance of winning at the moment.

[DarrinS]

People lie to pollsters. If I didn't hang up first, I know I would. :lol

[TimDunkem]

^So hardly anyone at all. Gotcha.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

People lie to pollsters. If I didn't hang up first, I know I would. :lol

Sure and what makes you think that the lies favor one way over the other? It's kinda the voter fraud unicorn. If it does indeed exist then why is it assumed that only democrats would benefit from it?

[ducks]

Battle ground states are like 3-4 points
In marginal error

[Spurtacular]

They had trump closer to 30% on Election Day 2016 iirc

They like to change it at the end to make it seem like they weren't doing submission polling.
Nobody worries about this sh** any more besides deluded chumpettes.

[DarrinS]

Good luck. :lol

[DMX7]

They like to change it at the end to make it seem like they weren't doing submission polling.
Nobody worries about this sh** any more besides deluded chumpettes.

You’re worried. It’s showing.

[DarrinS]

Dems: US has systematic racism

Also Dems: Nominate Biden

[TimDunkem]

So who is ready for an ELE bet? Which one of you chuds will agree to stop posting for good if Trump loses?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Battle ground states are like 3-4 points
In marginal error

Florida, Ohio, and Iowa are but Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not.

[ElNono]

Yup in comparison, if Biden wins a place like Florida or NC in the MoE, it's over for Trump.

Florida is especially crucial for Trump, as they count early and fast. Though I do think he's going to win that state.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Florida is especially crucial for Trump, as they count early and fast. Though I do think he's going to win that state.

Biden is up 2.4 points.

[ElNono]

Biden is up 2.4 points.

That's within the MoE... like I said, I'm giving anything within that gap to Trump...

[DMC]

Want to preface that anyone who posts individual polls and handwaving at them claiming victory is an abject moron.

Similarly 538 had Clinton up two points and gave Trump a 35% chance to win in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote at a bit over 1% and Trump won the electoral college ie hitting his 35% chance. If you are too stupid or ignorant to understand what probabilities mean then you really shouldn't comment.

538 does not poll. They take all of the polls and adjust for actual bias and weight them based on precision. IOW if the aggregate of a pollster shows them 3 points in favor of one party over actual results they adjust the pollster to actual results. They give more weight to pollsters that are precise. IOW, They hit the same target consistently regardless of accurate.

A good example of this is Rasmussen. People note how they always bias towards GOP candidates and conclude their results should be thrown out. 538 does not. They adjust for the bias and grade them well because they have a consistent bias.

Anyhow. Their models include individual state polling and the way each state apportions their electors.

They give Biden an 86% chance to win and Trump a 13% chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

They have Biden up 9.2 points up in national polling

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Note that the standard error for polls is ~5%.

Shut the fuck up you pretentious faggot.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Shut the fuck up you pretentious faggot.

If you cannot have an adult conversation like the other parties in this thread why come in with juvenile insults. Your obesity getting to you?

I get that you don't like me. I don't really care. You are just another angry fatbody with a complete lack of self-awareness. A dime a dozen.

Edit: it seems my rebutting your arguments before you could make them got you salty. You feeling the abject moron for wanting to make them?

[DMC]

If you cannot have an adult conversation like the other parties in this thread why come in with juvenile insults. Your obesity getting to you?

I get that you don't like me. I don't really care. You are just another angry fatbody with a complete lack of self-awareness. A dime a dozen.

Fuck off, you tucked tail and ran when you were shown to be the idiot you are. Then you return like it never happened. You don't get to just monologue like a momma's boy and not take your lumps, lumpy.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

That's within the MoE... like I said, I'm giving anything within that gap to Trump...

Err on the side of caution. I get it.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Fuck off, you tucked tail and ran when you were shown to be the idiot you are. Then you return like it never happened. You don't get to just monologue like a momma's boy and not take your lumps, lumpy.

:lol you think your juvenile angry ranting is doling out "lumps." Like I said, zero sense of self awareness.

And I did come back. You should get your memory checked.

[ElNono]

Err on the side of caution. I get it.

I'm mostly interested in how metrics were adjusted post '16, more than anything. I mean, my life doesn't circle around who's the POTUS, and frankly, I never understood the team sport aspect outside of the trolling part.

2018 I thought was a rebound year for pollsters, but I suppose the litmus test is this election considering it's Trump again.

The main reason I'm giving MoE states to Trump has to do with the fact that I don't think Joe is a very likable candidate that will really know how to drive turnout, especially on election day.

I think he's going to be largely the beneficiary of not sucking as much as Hillary, and the fact that a large majority of people are tired of Trump's bullshit.

[DMC]

:lol you think your juvenile angry ranting is doling out "lumps." Like I said, zero sense of self awareness.

And I did come back. You should get your memory checked.

:lol "angry"

Lumpy with the white flag move early in the match

[FuzzyLumpkins]

:lol "angry"

Lumpy with the white flag move early in the match

Yes, angry. You reflexively start frothing at the mouth when I post.

Surrendering to what? Your juvenile insults. When you make an actual argument instead of the "you're not really smart" argument and frothing diatribe I might take you seriously.

What your reading is me not taking you seriously in the least. It's been that way ever since you tried to link the genetics to skin melanin to a gene for violent criminal behavior. When I pointed out your racism and lack of critical thinking in your argument, you actually did exit stage left. That is when your frothing reflexive responses started.

That type of behavior is typical in hypervigilant narcissism btw.

Anywho I am not going to respond to you anymore unless you start having intelligent on-topic comments or arguments. I won't hold my breath.

[DMC]

Yes, angry. You reflexively start frothing at the mouth when I post.

Surrendering to what? Your juvenile insults. When you make an actual argument instead of the "you're not really smart" argument and frothing diatribe I might take you seriously.

What your reading is me not taking you seriously in the least. It's been that way ever since you tried to link the genetics to skin melanin to a gene for violent criminal behavior. When I pointed out your racism and lack of critical thinking in your argument, you actually did exit stage left. That is when your frothing reflexive responses started.

That type of behavior is typical in hypervigilant narcissism btw.

Anywho I am not going to respond to you anymore unless you start having intelligent on-topic comments or arguments. I won't hold my breath.

:lol you start off lecturing the forum like you're someone.

You're a faggot. Just accept it and move on.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm mostly interested in how metrics were adjusted post '16, more than anything. I mean, my life doesn't circle around who's the POTUS, and frankly, I never understood the team sport aspect outside of the trolling part.

2018 I thought was a rebound year for pollsters, but I suppose the litmus test is this election considering it's Trump again.

The main reason I'm giving MoE states to Trump has to do with the fact that I don't think Joe is a very likable candidate that will really know how to drive turnout, especially on election day.

I think he's going to be largely the beneficiary of not sucking as much as Hillary, and the fact that a large majority of people are tired of Trump's bullshit.

So you don't think "likely voters" are determined accurately? I think that there is more to what drive people to or away from the polls than a charismatic candidate. The unappealing nature of Trump is as much of a draw.

At the end of the day, I think The Clinton foundation, emails, and Comey's October surprise drove the turnout mostly in 2016 as opposed the either candidate inherent appeal.

[ElNono]

So you don't think "likely voters" are determined accurately? I think that there is more to what drive people to or away from the polls than a charismatic candidate. The unappealing nature of Trump is as much of a draw.

At the end of the day, I think The Clinton foundation, emails, and Comey's October surprise drove the turnout mostly in 2016 as opposed the either candidate inherent appeal.

Well, I think I'm going to disagree on that. I think Hillary was extremely unlikeable, and somebody that looked both entitled and arrogant. She was damaged goods in a lot of ways.

You also have to credit Trump for making people believe things he knew he couldn't deliver on (bringing back manufacturing, cheap and great healthcare, hedge funds will have to leave money on the table, etc), which is a lot easier to do when you're more or less an unknown.

Now, I don't think Joe is a likeable candidate either, but I don't think your average voter dislikes him as much as Shillary and/or Trump.

And incumbency will hurt Trump simply because he can't keep pulling a fast one on the promises department. He didn't deliver, and it's pretty clear he's not interested either.

[DMC]

So you don't think "likely voters" are determined accurately? I think that there is more to what drive people to or away from the polls than a charismatic candidate. The unappealing nature of Trump is as much of a draw.

At the end of the day, I think The Clinton foundation, emails, and Comey's October surprise drove the turnout mostly in 2016 as opposed the either candidate inherent appeal.
And then there is the real world where Clinton, a seasoned attorney and politician, articulates policy positions extremely well whereas Trump tries to insult which hurts him in the contested electors in the general.

The shit that sells in the primary doesn't sell now. Youre like him and just cannot help yourself.


Given that he barely beat an awful candidate last time and looks much, much worse than he did 3 years ago of course they can.

:lol

[Reck]

It’s not good they have Biden’s odds trending slightly down the last few days, but I stil laugh at the 2016 comparisons from MAGAtards.

:lol

You're worried that he's lost 2 points due to shitty C- republican polls?

I'm just paying attention to PA and Wisconsin right now. As long as they keep out of the margin of error than there is some room to play for potential Trump gain and still win.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Well, I think I'm going to disagree on that. I think Hillary was extremely unlikeable, and somebody that looked both entitled and arrogant. She was damaged goods in a lot of ways.

You also have to credit Trump for making people believe things he knew he couldn't deliver on (bringing back manufacturing, cheap and great healthcare, hedge funds will have to leave money on the table, etc), which is a lot easier to do when you're more or less an unknown.

Now, I don't think Joe is a likeable candidate either, but I don't think your average voter dislikes him as much as Shillary and/or Trump.

And incumbency will hurt Trump simply because he can't keep pulling a fast one on the promises department. He didn't deliver, and it's pretty clear he's not interested either.

I get that she has the charisma of a toilet seat. At the same time I think Bannon's Uranium 1, Clinton Foundation, and emails propaganda was much more significant. Bannon is now working against Trump.

[ElNono]

I get that she has the charisma of a toilet seat. At the same time I think Bannon's Uranium 1, Clinton Foundation, and emails propaganda was much more significant. Bannon is now working against Trump.

I think she lost, basically, due to losing the Rust Belt. Those guys cared about the anti-globalization sentiment, and the rosy promises of manufacturing coming back, more than anything Bannon or the emails said or did. But that's certainly my opinion.

At this point you have to be pretty dumb not to tell you were conned if you are in any of those States. All that said, that was then. With a relatively good economy, going up and no pandemic. The environment has obviously changed now.

[DMC]

I think she lost, basically, due to losing the Rust Belt. Those guys cared about the anti-globalization sentiment, and the rosy promises of manufacturing coming back, more than anything Bannon or the emails said or did. But that's certainly my opinion.

At this point you have to be pretty dumb not to tell you were conned if you are in any of those States. All that said, that was then. With a relatively good economy, going up and no pandemic. The environment has obviously changed now.

Sure, but people still need jobs, and coal miners aren't going to be retasked as medical professionals.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Sure, but people still need jobs, and coal miners aren't going to be retasked as medical professionals.

And Trump failed on his promise to deliver them.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I think she lost, basically, due to losing the Rust Belt. Those guys cared about the anti-globalization sentiment, and the rosy promises of manufacturing coming back, more than anything Bannon or the emails said or did. But that's certainly my opinion.

At this point you have to be pretty dumb not to tell you were conned if you are in any of those States. All that said, that was then. With a relatively good economy, going up and no pandemic. The environment has obviously changed now.

And she failed to campaign much in the midwest.

[ElNono]

Sure, but people still need jobs, and coal miners aren't going to be retasked as medical professionals.

That's when you need a serious plan for re-training. Coal is simply slowly going away, no matter if the president is (R) or (D). Same with combustion engines, radio, CD-Roms, etc.

The idea we needed to save BlockBuster video because it employed 84,000 people is ridiculous (BTW, that's how many people they employed at it's peak. Nowadays, the Coal industry employs barely over 52,000 people).

It's all smoke and mirrors. Manufacturing is not coming back to the US. Not without the US dramatically lowering it's standard of living, which is unlikely in the near future.

[DMC]

And Trump failed on his promise to deliver them.

:lol no, lowest unemployment in history, pre-COVID.

[DMC]

That's when you need a serious plan for re-training. Coal is simply slowly going away, no matter if the president is (R) or (D). Same with combustion engines, radio, CD-Roms, etc.

The idea we needed to save BlockBuster video because it employed 84,000 people is ridiculous (BTW, that's how many people they employed at it's peak. Nowadays, the Coal industry employs barely over 52,000 people).

It's all smoke and mirrors. Manufacturing is not coming back to the US. Not without the US dramatically lowering it's standard of living, which is unlikely in the near future.

Plan or not, you can easily explain and even predict the support from states that are heavy on low wage manual labor because the mythical retraining plan is individual choice, just like voting. Coal is just an example. There are many people in this country who basically live week to week. They don't have any real marketable skills. They are the shade tree mechanics of all trades, or they fell into the trap of their father's trade which was often dependent on things technology is rendering obsolete.

[SnakeBoy]

That's within the MoE... like I said, I'm giving anything within that gap to Trump...

I think Trump gets Florida & North Carolina. Then Nate gives it a 50/50 race basically

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

Really comes down to the "blue wall" states Hillary shit the bed in. Did they really move towards the GOP or was Hillary just that bad? I've never been to those states and never known anyone from those states so I have no idea.

[ElNono]

Plan or not, you can easily explain and even predict the support from states that are heavy on low wage manual labor because the mythical retraining plan is individual choice, just like voting. Coal is just an example. There are many people in this country who basically live week to week. They don't have any real marketable skills. They are the shade tree mechanics of all trades, or they fell into the trap of their father's trade which was often dependent on things technology is rendering obsolete.

Sure, but the question is what are you offering them and are you telling them the truth? You can outright lie and try to sell them smoke and mirrors, like Don did, and then it's inevitable it's going to come back to you because you just cannot deliver.

Taking on your example, coal jobs have been on the decline for a long time now. It's damn near impossible to bring manufacturing jobs back here unless workers accept to work for 12+ hour shifts, and cents an hour. You need 10 jobs to make ends meet with our standard of living, it's just simply economically non-viable, we're not competitive.

Those jobs are as good as gone and not coming back. So you better explain that to people and offer them assistance while they transition to something else. Move to solar installations, until the solar fad goes away, etc.

This economy shifted from primarily manufacturing to primarily services many years ago. A lot of re-training went into that, mostly from private companies as they were shifting their focus, and it wasn't really optional or an individual choice if you wanted to keep or have a job.

[SnakeBoy]

It's damn near impossible to bring manufacturing jobs back here unless workers accept to work for 12+ hour shifts, and cents an hour.

Joe is campaigning on bringing back manufacturing jobs

[ElNono]

I think Trump gets Florida & North Carolina. Then Nate gives it a 50/50 race basically

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

Really comes down to the "blue wall" states Hillary shit the bed in. Did they really move towards the GOP or was Hillary just that bad? I've never been to those states and never known anyone from those states so I have no idea.

Well, I think Biden gets Michigan (polling there has been waaaaay out of the MoE for a long time now), and then it's more of a 63/37 chance.

To your later point, that's what we're discussing now. I think Shillary was that bad, but also Trump got away promising things that were really appealing to them (manufacturing, etc) that he knew he couldn't deliver.

I can't think that's not a major factor to what we see in the blue wall states now.

[ElNono]

Joe is campaigning on bringing back manufacturing jobs

Joe is promising another "Made in America" cash giveaway, which I'll admit is also bullshit.

[spurraider21]

Dems: US has systematic racism

Also Dems: Nominate Biden
And?

[spurraider21]

:lol no, lowest unemployment in history, pre-COVID.
Bush had good numbers pre recession too. You don’t get to cherry pick

[Rummpd]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/

Not all the polls but most and is a pretty fair site

[FuzzyLumpkins]

:lol no, lowest unemployment in history, pre-COVID.

Not in history and not in coal states. He promised to bring back coal jobs and didn't which is what I was talking about.

[Will Hunting]

:cry It was the best economy ever....Trump created so many jobs at Target and Walmart pre-COVID :cry

[Will Hunting]

Joe is campaigning on bringing back manufacturing jobs
Promising blue collar whites a return to 1950s manufacturing jobs is a bipartisan problem for sure.

[DMC]

Bush had good numbers pre recession too. You don’t get to cherry pick

false equivalence

:lol Philo acting like lockdown isn't a thing

[DMC]

:cry It was the best economy ever....Trump created so many jobs at Target and Walmart pre-COVID :cry

Since when did the unemployment numbers not include those types of jobs as well?

[DMC]

I think she lost, basically, due to losing the Rust Belt. Those guys cared about the anti-globalization sentiment, and the rosy promises of manufacturing coming back, more than anything Bannon or the emails said or did. But that's certainly my opinion.

At this point you have to be pretty dumb not to tell you were conned if you are in any of those States. All that said, that was then. With a relatively good economy, going up and no pandemic. The environment has obviously changed now.


Sure, but people still need jobs, and coal miners aren't going to be retasked as medical professionals.


And Trump failed on his promise to deliver them.


Not in history and not in coal states. He promised to bring back coal jobs and didn't which is what I was talking about.

I responded to El's comment about manufacturing jobs. The comment was that coal miners weren't going to become doctors. Manufacturing is about the only avenue for them.

[Bogie]

Well, I think I'm going to disagree on that. I think Hillary was extremely unlikeable, and somebody that looked both entitled and arrogant. She was damaged goods in a lot of ways.

You also have to credit Trump for making people believe things he knew he couldn't deliver on (bringing back manufacturing, cheap and great healthcare, hedge funds will have to leave money on the table, etc), which is a lot easier to do when you're more or less an unknown.

Now, I don't think Joe is a likeable candidate either, but I don't think your average voter dislikes him as much as Shillary and/or Trump.

And incumbency will hurt Trump simply because he can't keep pulling a fast one on the promises department. He didn't deliver, and it's pretty clear he's not interested either.

Why do you say joe is not a likable candidate?

I’m actually curious. I hear that from other progressive types. So I’m curious what has led to that definition of him.

personally, he’s just a politician. But his importance isn’t in his soaring rhetoric or ideas, because that’s not there. His importance is in stopping the further degradation of the office

[spurraider21]

false equivalence

:lol Philo acting like lockdown isn't a thing
They both had good numbers until they didnt

[boutons_deux]

Huge turnout in early vote points to Democratic edge in some key states









Democrats have an average 5 percentage-point lead in the early vote across 14 battleground states, according to an analysis by TargetSmart.

That advantage is higher in certain states crucial to Joe Biden’s path to the presidency like Pennsylvania,

where mail-in ballots are the only early-voting option and where more than twice as many Democrats have voted early than Republicans so far.

Moreover, a quarter of the early vote in battleground states is coming from infrequent or first-time voters,

suggesting that Democrats aren’t just banking votes they’d get anyway, but are actually drawing in new voters.

-- Boston Globe email

[ChumpDumper]

false equivalence

:lol Philo acting like lockdown isn't a thingTrue, Trump potentially had more control over lessening the effects of COVID on the economy but your guy is the worst president since Wilson, so his ineptitude made the economy worse.

Good catch, DMC.:tu

[Reck]

Huge turnout in early vote points to Democratic edge in some key states









Democrats have an average 5 percentage-point lead in the early vote across 14 battleground states, according to an analysis by TargetSmart.

That advantage is higher in certain states crucial to Joe Biden’s path to the presidency like Pennsylvania,

where mail-in ballots are the only early-voting option and where more than twice as many Democrats have voted early than Republicans so far.

Moreover, a quarter of the early vote in battleground states is coming from infrequent or first-time voters,

suggesting that Democrats aren’t just banking votes they’d get anyway, but are actually drawing in new voters.

-- Boston Globe email






TSA :lol

Who do you reckon this favors?

[Will Hunting]

TSA (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=7640) :lol

Who do you reckon this favors?
North Carolina already has 750k voters who didn't vote in 2016 :lol, even if Trump wins Florida I think he's in deep shit in North Carolina and Arizona.

[DMC]

They both had good numbers until they didnt

Gross oversimplification. Reasons matter.

[DMC]

Why do you say joe is not a likable candidate?

I’m actually curious. I hear that from other progressive types. So I’m curious what has led to that definition of him.

personally, he’s just a politician. But his importance isn’t in his soaring rhetoric or ideas, because that’s not there. His importance is in stopping the further degradation of the office

:lol

This false pretense that the office of the POTUS somehow has prestige and hasn't been sullied by decades of highly suspect characters is damn near dogma. Thinking Joe will bring some dignity to that office is basically Tom Cruise level Scientology.

[Bogie]

:lol

This false pretense that the office of the POTUS somehow has prestige and hasn't been sullied by decades of highly suspect characters is damn near dogma. Thinking Joe will bring some dignity to that office is basically Tom Cruise level Scientology.


who said anything about prestige or honor? I certainly didn’t. But what the current inhabitant of the position has done makes Nixon look honorable and decent.

[baseline bum]

North Carolina already has 750k voters who didn't vote in 2016 :lol, even if Trump wins Florida I think he's in deep shit in North Carolina and Arizona.

source?

[Will Hunting]

source?
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

Scroll down to the bottom. It's data released by each county, so not a polling a estimate. 750k is an actual tally.

[Rummpd]

Huge turnout in early vote points to Democratic edge in some key states









Democrats have an average 5 percentage-point lead in the early vote across 14 battleground states, according to an analysis by TargetSmart.

That advantage is higher in certain states crucial to Joe Biden’s path to the presidency like Pennsylvania,

where mail-in ballots are the only early-voting option and where more than twice as many Democrats have voted early than Republicans so far.

Moreover, a quarter of the early vote in battleground states is coming from infrequent or first-time voters,

suggesting that Democrats aren’t just banking votes they’d get anyway, but are actually drawing in new voters.

-- Boston Globe email






Honestly Globe is about as liberal as it comes and mat not be credible other stories suggest opposite effect.

[Will Hunting]

Honestly Globe is about as liberal as it comes and mat not be credible other stories suggest opposite effect.
At least in NC, there's actual voter registration data that shows 1/4 of its early voters are first time/infrequent voters - they have 3 million votes cast and 750k of them are voters who didn't vote in 2016. That's not polling or election modeling, it's data that's released by the state.

Regardless, even if early votes are simply "cannibalizing" election day votes, that's still good for Biden/Democrats. It gives them a smaller pool of voters to make outreach efforts to over the next 9 days.

[boutons_deux]

And she failed to campaign much in the midwest.

Dems failed to campaign on fucking POLICIES, just running against Trash.

America's superficial so-called civilization is skin deep, voting for people on likeability or "looking the part", or telegenics, or Macho Man fakes, rather than on policies.

So they elect ignorant tools, Useful Idiots and war criminals like St Ronnie, dubya, and of course horrible, fatal jokes like Trash.

[DMC]

who said anything about prestige or honor? I certainly didn’t. But what the current inhabitant of the position has done makes Nixon look honorable and decent.

Degradation from something, obviously.. unless you're referring to the décor.

[boutons_deux]

Honestly Globe is about as liberal as it comes and mat not be credible other stories suggest opposite effect.

... sez the Trash fellator who posts Rasmussen crap

[baseline bum]

Honestly Globe is about as liberal as it comes and mat not be credible other stories suggest opposite effect.

You should put money on Trump like you did the Heat and Nuggets against King James and the Lakers.

[baseline bum]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

Scroll down to the bottom. It's data released by each county, so not a polling a estimate. 750k is an actual tally.

Thanks, nice

[Will Hunting]

Thanks, nice
It's a few days old, but this analysis for Florida also shows Democrats are turning out more of their voters who missed 1 or more of the last 3 elections than Republicans are doing so far.

When this was done the GOP has about 400k more super voters (voted in 4/4 generals) left than Democrats do, but Democrats currently have about ~330k more votes cast than Republicans have, and there are a lot of young voters who simply weren't old enough to vote in the last 4 elections.

Gillum won independents by 10 points in 2018 and Trump/DeathSantis have only gotten more unpopular since then, so as long as registered Ds match registered Rs in votes cast in the state, I think Biden should win Florida.

1319930380200366081

[Bogie]

Degradation from something, obviously.. unless you're referring to the décor.


You gotta learn to comprehend what you read.

trump has absolutely diminished the standing of office and America in the world. I get that you get love him because he allows you to be openly racist, and you get to own the libs.

But that doesn’t mean he’s honorable in any way. He has lowered the bar from the very depths of the most corrupt and evil men that have held the office.

[baseline bum]

It's a few days old, but this analysis for Florida also shows Democrats are turning out more of their voters who missed 1 or more of the last 3 elections than Republicans are doing so far.

When this was done the GOP has about 400k more super voters (voted in 4/4 generals) left than Democrats do, but Democrats currently have about ~330k more votes cast than Republicans have, and there are a lot of young voters who simply weren't old enough to vote in the last 4 elections.

Gillum won independents by 10 points in 2018 and Trump/DeathSantis have only gotten more unpopular since then, so as long as registered Ds match registered Rs in votes cast in the state, I think Biden should win Florida.

1319930380200366081

Ugh, if only all those young people showed up in the primaries too.

[spurraider21]

Gross oversimplification. Reasons matter.
Sure. And trump botched the covid response

[Will Hunting]

:lmao Trafalgar cutting off access to its cross tabs after Nate Silver eviscerates them

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[Reck]

:lmao Trafalgar cutting off access to its cross tabs after Nate Silver eviscerates them

1320425285955833857

So the one time trafaggots are a bit more transparent with the methodology, they get shit on immediately for their insane polling methods. :tu

[tholdren]

:lmao Trafalgar cutting off access to its cross tabs after Nate Silver eviscerates them

1320425285955833857

Lolool

Covid

[hitmanyr2k]

:lol no, lowest unemployment in history, pre-COVID.

That's really nothing but a garbage talking point. The "left behinds" that Trump courted in 2016 weren't really any better off pre-Covid. Trump's trade war dragged on far too long with hardly any benefits and tariffs were taxing the hell out of American businesses causing the cost of their raw materials to rise. Rather than eat that extra cost businesses had the choice of shelving expansion projects, laying off workers, or passing that extra cost to consumers. This lead to a manufacturing recession and rust belt states were bleeding jobs all through 2019. I lost count how many times Trump and Pence came to PA with their "war on coal" and "Trump digs coal" slogans. 4 years later coal is still on a death spiral which is why I haven't heard Trump or Pence mention it once on the campaign trail. Same goes for steel workers. Trump's tariffs were designed to help their industry but they backfired and the manufacturing recession had a domino effect on the steel industry causing low demand and their prices dropped drastically. Farmers also got hit hard by the trade war. Trump tried to shut them up with billions in bailouts but that money was just a bandaid and all that money was doing is keeping their lights on at this point. Their markets and supply chains have been destroyed in tariff retaliation. I laughed so hard last week when Trump went to Iowa and went on a rant about his Nobel Peace prize nomination not getting any news coverage because of Iowa's floods and crop problems :lol You could tell the people in the audience were like WTF. Trump and the RINOs also advertised 4-5% GDP growth with their tax cuts. Last year it was 2%. Trump and the "fiscal conservatives" cut government revenue on one hand and went on a spending spree on the other for 2% GDP :lol

The funny thing is if Trump had handled the Covid response like an adult he would have sailed to a 2nd term looking Presidential and on the perception from the uninformed that his smoke and mirrors economy was "the best ever". He botched it like he screws up everything else and now he's in a dogfight with Biden's corpse :lol

[ElNono]

Why do you say joe is not a likable candidate?

I’m actually curious. I hear that from other progressive types. So I’m curious what has led to that definition of him.

personally, he’s just a politician. But his importance isn’t in his soaring rhetoric or ideas, because that’s not there. His importance is in stopping the further degradation of the office

I think he would've been a good candidate 10 years ago (not great, good), when he wasn't so old, and he could articulate better.

He always had a good way of connecting with people, but he also has never really been an inspiring politician. He's basically a center-right candidate.

Plus he has too long a political career where you can ding him in a lot of areas he's been flip flopping on (the fact that this administration whiffed on that will go down as one of their biggest mistakes). And what to say about the gaffes.

As we all knew, turnout is imperative for Democrats in this election. He's not energetic, he's not inspiring, nothing he says or does invites the more progressive side to go cast a vote for him, he's been sitting in his bunker for weeks and months on end. That doesn't drive turnout.

He'll be the beneficiary of Trump's ineptitude and acrimony, that's what's driving turnout on the left and possibly independents. By any measure, he's a fairly terrible candidate well past his prime.

[Spurminator]

I think he would've been a good candidate 10 years ago (not great, good), when he wasn't so old, and he could articulate better.

He always had a good way of connecting with people, but he also has never really been an inspiring politician. He's basically a center-right candidate.

Plus he has too long a political career where you can ding him in a lot of areas he's been flip flopping on (the fact that this administration whiffed on that will go down as one of their biggest mistakes). And what to say about the gaffes.

As we all knew, turnout is imperative for Democrats in this election. He's not energetic, he's not inspiring, nothing he says or does invites the more progressive side to go cast a vote for him, he's been sitting in his bunker for weeks and months on end. That doesn't drive turnout.

He'll be the beneficiary of Trump's ineptitude and acrimony, that's what's driving turnout on the left and possibly independents. By any measure, he's a fairly terrible candidate well past his prime.

For what it's worth, Gallup polled Biden's likeability at 66%, which is a higher score than any candidate has had in the past 30 years (and I haven't looked for scores before that time.)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/111439/obama-mccain-two-bestliked-candidates.aspx
https://news.gallup.com/poll/321695/americans-view-biden-likable-honest-trump-strong.aspx

[ElNono]

For what it's worth, Gallup polled Biden's likeability at 66%, which is a higher score than any candidate has had in the past 30 years (and I haven't looked for scores before that time.)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/111439/obama-mccain-two-bestliked-candidates.aspx
https://news.gallup.com/poll/321695/americans-view-biden-likable-honest-trump-strong.aspx

Maybe my perception is skewed or wrong. I certainly admit to that.

That said, as I was saying with Obama, when you put somebody like Dennison next to them, you're obviously going to look amazing.

Mussolini would probably look like an amazing leader next to orange man, tbh...

[Bogie]

Maybe my perception is skewed or wrong. I certainly admit to that.

That said, as I was saying with Obama, when you put somebody like Dennison next to them, you're obviously going to look amazing.

Mussolini would probably look like an amazing leader next to orange man, tbh...

i guess I just think of all the things you can criticize Joe for, and they’re definitely are flaws.

his likability is not one of them. His biggest hook is his ability to relate to everyone. That, in its very essence speaks to humanity and why people from all walks of life like him.

[Isitjustme?]

It's a few days old, but this analysis for Florida also shows Democrats are turning out more of their voters who missed 1 or more of the last 3 elections than Republicans are doing so far.

When this was done the GOP has about 400k more super voters (voted in 4/4 generals) left than Democrats do, but Democrats currently have about ~330k more votes cast than Republicans have, and there are a lot of young voters who simply weren't old enough to vote in the last 4 elections.

Gillum won independents by 10 points in 2018 and Trump/DeathSantis have only gotten more unpopular since then, so as long as registered Ds match registered Rs in votes cast in the state, I think Biden should win Florida.

1319930380200366081

If he wins Florida on election night this will be over fast

[baseline bum]

If he wins Florida on election night this will be over fast

Trump will still prime his death cult for more stochastic terrorism, or maybe even active terrorism.

[baseline bum]

It's a few days old, but this analysis for Florida also shows Democrats are turning out more of their voters who missed 1 or more of the last 3 elections than Republicans are doing so far.

When this was done the GOP has about 400k more super voters (voted in 4/4 generals) left than Democrats do, but Democrats currently have about ~330k more votes cast than Republicans have, and there are a lot of young voters who simply weren't old enough to vote in the last 4 elections.

Gillum won independents by 10 points in 2018 and Trump/DeathSantis have only gotten more unpopular since then, so as long as registered Ds match registered Rs in votes cast in the state, I think Biden should win Florida.

1319930380200366081

It's hard to understand how the Republicans could have any chance in Florida after Scott / DeathSantis wrecked the unemployment system. but I still expect Florida to go Trump.

[Will Hunting]

It's hard to understand how the Republicans could have any chance in Florida after Scott / DeathSantis wrecked the unemployment system. but I still expect Florida to go Trump.
It’s easy to understand. Voter suppression is how.

Unlike other sunbelt states like NC/GA where demographics have steadily shifted left, Florida also has a steady inflow of old fucks moving there who vote Republican.

[ElNono]

i guess I just think of all the things you can criticize Joe for, and they’re definitely are flaws.

his likability is not one of them. His biggest hook is his ability to relate to everyone. That, in its very essence speaks to humanity and why people from all walks of life like him.

I don't deny he has a gift to connect with people, but his Congressional record and pretty much entire political career is littered with shitting on the little guy, minorities and being a corporate whore, so if you fall for the 'relatable' act, it's on you.

It's great that Dennison decided to go for his kid instead, and old Joe is probably thrilled, tbh. But the more progressive side of the party is completely right he's not going to do largely anything for them, and you just gotta hold your nose to get rid of this administration.

There's already talks of him filling up cabinet positions with never-trumper republicans. He probably loves Dianne Feinstein.

Like I said, he's fortunate he's running against a terrible and unpopular president, tbh

[DMC]

That's really nothing but a garbage talking point. The "left behinds" that Trump courted in 2016 weren't really any better off pre-Covid. Trump's trade war dragged on far too long with hardly any benefits and tariffs were taxing the hell out of American businesses causing the cost of their raw materials to rise. Rather than eat that extra cost businesses had the choice of shelving expansion projects, laying off workers, or passing that extra cost to consumers. This lead to a manufacturing recession and rust belt states were bleeding jobs all through 2019. I lost count how many times Trump and Pence came to PA with their "war on coal" and "Trump digs coal" slogans. 4 years later coal is still on a death spiral which is why I haven't heard Trump or Pence mention it once on the campaign trail. Same goes for steel workers. Trump's tariffs were designed to help their industry but they backfired and the manufacturing recession had a domino effect on the steel industry causing low demand and their prices dropped drastically. Farmers also got hit hard by the trade war. Trump tried to shut them up with billions in bailouts but that money was just a bandaid and all that money was doing is keeping their lights on at this point. Their markets and supply chains have been destroyed in tariff retaliation. I laughed so hard last week when Trump went to Iowa and went on a rant about his Nobel Peace prize nomination not getting any news coverage because of Iowa's floods and crop problems :lol You could tell the people in the audience were like WTF. Trump and the RINOs also advertised 4-5% GDP growth with their tax cuts. Last year it was 2%. Trump and the "fiscal conservatives" cut government revenue on one hand and went on a spending spree on the other for 2% GDP :lol

The funny thing is if Trump had handled the Covid response like an adult he would have sailed to a 2nd term looking Presidential and on the perception from the uninformed that his smoke and mirrors economy was "the best ever". He botched it like he screws up everything else and now he's in a dogfight with Biden's corpse :lol
So high unemployment numbers mean something. Low unemployment numbers don't.

Up till February 2020 the dems were trying to impeach Trump. Don't pretend it's all about COVID. That was just the out dems needed.

[Will Hunting]

I don't deny he has a gift to connect with people, but his Congressional record and pretty much entire political career is littered with shitting on the little guy, minorities and being a corporate whore, so if you fall for the 'relatable' act, it's on you.

It's great that Dennison decided to go for his kid instead, and old Joe is probably thrilled, tbh. But the more progressive side of the party is completely right he's not going to do largely anything for them, and you just gotta hold your nose to get rid of this administration.

There's already talks of him filling up cabinet positions with never-trumper republicans. He probably loves Dianne Feinstein.

Like I said, he's fortunate he's running against a terrible and unpopular president, tbh
The favorite to be his chief of staff is relatively progressive which I’m crossing my fingers is a sign of things to come. It’s also not just Bernie on the left like it was in 2009, it’s Bernie/Markey/Warren in the senate with a quickly growing amount of progressives in the house. Biden’s going to have more pressure from his left than Obama had.

[ElNono]

The favorite to be his chief of staff is relatively progressive which I’m crossing my fingers is a sign of things to come. It’s also not just Bernie on the left like it was in 2009, it’s Bernie/Markey/Warren in the senate with a quickly growing amount of progressives in the house. Biden’s going to have more pressure from his left than Obama had.

Let's hope Joe changed and he feels the heat. But that's sort of the point: doesn't look like anything is going to happen out of his own volition.

I'm simply pointing out the flaws I see with him as a candidate. It's not like I'm bringing this up now, I've been saying the same thing for a while, and I think the DNC is playing with fire when they roll out candidates like him.

[pgardn]

So high unemployment numbers mean something. Low unemployment numbers don't.

Up till February 2020 the dems were trying to impeach Trump. Don't pretend it's all about COVID. That was just the out dems needed.

Trump was impeached.

The Senate Says we are red and that’s as far as it goes.
People have difficulty understanding the importance of keeping our elections out of play for intelligence agencies of foreign countries. They get the f up on health care and the disastrous results of fingup on a very contagious virus. Eventually incompetence and lying become important.

[ElNono]

I mean, look, anybody in here that voted or will vote for Joe tell me with a straight face you were energized to vote for him because he's the candidate vs you were energized to go kick orange orangutan out...

[Will Hunting]

Let's hope Joe changed and he feels the heat. But that's sort of the point: doesn't look like anything is going to happen out of his own volition.

I'm simply pointing out the flaws I see with him as a candidate. It's not like I'm bringing this up now, I've been saying the same thing for a while, and I think the DNC is playing with fire when they roll out candidates like him.
I could very well be wrong and he’ll go back to being the credit card companies’ favorite politician once he gets elected, he just seems to be in a mode where he cares about his legacy at this point more than his corporate sponsors. 4 years ago I voted for Shillary but had no doubt that she would be a corporate shill once she got into office. I have more optimism with Biden than I did with her, well see if it’s warranted.

[pgardn]

I mean, look, anybody in here that voted or will vote for Joe tell me with a straight face you were energized to vote for him because he's the candidate vs you were energized to go kick orange orangutan out...

Exhausted of the lying and the f ups.
Peace out.

[ChumpDumper]

Up till February 2020The Dinesh D'Souza frozen in time gambit.

[Bogie]

I could very well be wrong and he’ll go back to being the credit card companies’ favorite politician once he gets elected, he just seems to be in a mode where he cares about his legacy at this point more than his corporate sponsors. 4 years ago I voted for Shillary but had no doubt that she would be a corporate shill once she got into office. I have more optimism with Biden than I did with her, well see if it’s warranted.

my original point with nono was likability. Joe is that guy.

i also think, for some reason, that his mortality, and having grandchildren that watched their father be put in the ground had a bigger effect than we realize.

i don’t think he’s transformational. But I think he knows that his legacy is wrapped up in somehow reigniting this idea of an American dream, whatever that is. He just needs the votes to make it a possibility.

[ElNono]

my original point with nono was likability. Joe is that guy.

i also think, for some reason, that his mortality, and having grandchildren that watched their father be put in the ground had a bigger effect than we realize.

i don’t think he’s transformational. But I think he knows that his legacy is wrapped up in somehow reigniting this idea of an American dream, whatever that is. He just needs the votes to make it a possibility.

If he wins, he'll be lauded as a hero. I have zero doubts about it. And he should also get credit for running. He could've easily stayed home and moved on.

All that said, if this is truly the best Dems have, there's a lot of work ahead of them.

[Will Hunting]

my original point with nono was likability. Joe is that guy.

i also think, for some reason, that his mortality, and having grandchildren that watched their father be put in the ground had a bigger effect than we realize.

i don’t think he’s transformational. But I think he knows that his legacy is wrapped up in somehow reigniting this idea of an American dream, whatever that is. He just needs the votes to make it a possibility.
I don’t think he’s transformational either but it’s worth noting FDR became a transformational president over time, he didn’t originally run as one.

Biden’s platform is also the most specifically progressive platform we’ve seen in decades. In hindsight the 2008 Obama platform was intentionally vague and not very progressive at all.

[Bogie]

If he wins, he'll be lauded as a hero. I have zero doubts about it. And he should also get credit for running. He could've easily stayed home and moved on.

All that said, if this is truly the best Dems have, there's a lot of work ahead of them.


there’s no doubt there needs to be a new generation of dem leaders. Hopefully, the progressive left becomes a motivating force with new faces to lead in the future. But all Dems need to be mindful that it’s a big umbrella full of many different types of people that most align with their ideals

[Bogie]

I don’t think he’s transformational either but it’s worth noting FDR became a transformational president over time, he didn’t originally run as one.

Biden’s platform is also the most specifically progressive platform we’ve seen in decades. In hindsight the 2008 Obama platform was intentionally vague and not very progressive at all.

the spike in the pandemic, the economy leaving behind millions of people, ridiculous tax cuts that further redistribute wealth upwards, a r party intent on obstructing anything and everything that would help the least powerful. Also the rw terrorism on the uptick, police unions fighting to make sure they can kill black men and women with qualified immunity.

it’s almost like 1932 again. Hopefully Joe is ready for what he’s about to face. It’s going to take the very best of the very best men and women to deal with the problems facing America in 2020.

[AaronY]

Maybe my perception is skewed or wrong. I certainly admit to that.

Lol wake us all up the first time you are ever right about Joe Biden. I dunno if this is some kind of kink fetish where you like getting dominated but man you love being wrong about that guy

[Will Hunting]

the spike in the pandemic, the economy leaving behind millions of people, ridiculous tax cuts that further redistribute wealth upwards, a r party intent on obstructing anything and everything that would help the least powerful. Also the rw terrorism on the uptick, police unions fighting to make sure they can kill black men and women with qualified immunity.

it’s almost like 1932 again. Hopefully Joe is ready for what he’s about to face. It’s going to take the very best of the very best men and women to deal with the problems facing America in 2020.
Yeah that's my big concern with Joe. He seems to think he can bring bipartisanship back and kill Cocaine Mitch with kindness. His only prayer at getting his platform is nuking the filibuster and ramming legislation through congress as aggressively as Trump and Cocaine Mitch have rammed this bible thumping bitch to a SCOTUS nomination.

Hopefully his talk about bipartisanship is just campaign bullshit to win Republican votes.

[ElNono]

Lol wake us all up the first time you are ever right about Joe Biden. I dunno if this is some kind of kink fetish where you like getting dominated but man you love being wrong about that guy

sup brah, I have zero problems with being wrong about Joe, tbh... I don't even dislike or hate the guy, I just think he's an extremely weak and unlikeable candidate.

This is one of those times I'd love to eat crow, IMO.

[Isitjustme?]

It’s easy to understand. Voter suppression is how.

Unlike other sunbelt states like NC/GA where demographics have steadily shifted left, Florida also has a steady inflow of old fucks moving there who vote Republican.
They also fucked over all the felons the voters voted to re-enfranchise with those poll taxes where they have to pay all their court costs. Biden is really unusually strong with older voters though so Florida will be interesting

[FuzzyLumpkins]

sup brah, I have zero problems with being wrong about Joe, tbh... I don't even dislike or hate the guy, I just think he's an extremely weak and unlikeable candidate.

This is one of those times I'd love to eat crow, IMO.

I certainly do not like him. Just like Reagan, Clinton, Obama and Trump, I expect to see the same who's who of corporate oligarchs get posted to the cabinet and oversight committees. Same fundamental corruption as you see consistently in both parties.

That being said, Biden is not an embarrassment like Trump is. That is what is driving conservatives and independents to Biden. Shame is one of the most powerful motivators to citizens of the US in general.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I don’t think he’s transformational either but it’s worth noting FDR became a transformational president over time, he didn’t originally run as one.

Biden’s platform is also the most specifically progressive platform we’ve seen in decades. In hindsight the 2008 Obama platform was intentionally vague and not very progressive at all.

That has more to do with the popularity of Sanders, AOC and the new breed of progressives than anything to do with Biden. Its the democratic party platform not the Biden platform.

[FrostKing]

Shame is one of the most powerful motivators to citizens of the US in general.
Surprising. IMO Americans are one of the least concerned nations/people over shame and reputation. Almost to the point of pride that the World negatively judges them. In part because America will always be the youngest guy in the room. Making the culture and history fundamentally inferior in others eyes.

Americans don't seem to care about being the Western black sheep tbh. Cowboy attitude...

[Bogie]

Surprising. IMO Americans are one of the least concerned nations/people over shame and reputation. Almost to the point of pride that the World negatively judges them. In part because America will always be the youngest guy in the room. Making the culture and history fundamentally inferior in others eyes.

Americans don't seem to care about being the Western black sheep tbh. Cowboy attitude...

It’s a good thing you live in Poland, where 97% of the population identifies as polish, then.

still amazing a guy in Poland would find a Hispanic girlfriend, when there’s literally no Hispanic population in Poland. Even more amazing that girlfriend’s father is going to commit voter fraud in America in order to vote for trump.

You should tell your story, it would be a true human interest story.

[Will Hunting]

They also fucked over all the felons the voters voted to re-enfranchise with those poll taxes where they have to pay all their court costs.
Like I said, voter suppression :lol

[DMC]

Trump was impeached.

The Senate Says we are red and that’s as far as it goes.
People have difficulty understanding the importance of keeping our elections out of play for intelligence agencies of foreign countries. They get the f up on health care and the disastrous results of fingup on a very contagious virus. Eventually incompetence and lying become important.

Your responses rarely have anything to do with the conversation you're responding to.

[DMC]

I certainly do not like him. Just like Reagan, Clinton, Obama and Trump, I expect to see the same who's who of corporate oligarchs get posted to the cabinet and oversight committees. Same fundamental corruption as you see consistently in both parties.

That being said, Biden is not an embarrassment like Trump is. That is what is driving conservatives and independents to Biden. Shame is one of the most powerful motivators to citizens of the US in general.

It's not shame. They've seen the Trump episodes and they want to see something new. Americans get bored easily. This is why they didn't want Mrs Clinton.

You can't convince me that a nation that's about 50% morbidly obese is motivated by shame.

[pgardn]

Your responses rarely have anything to do with the conversation you're responding to.

sure

You didn’t even know Trump was impeached so I understand you would not get the connections for the rest of it

[pgardn]

It's not shame. They've seen the Trump episodes and they want to see something new. Americans get bored easily. This is why they didn't want Mrs Clinton.

You can't convince me that a nation that's about 50% morbidly obese is motivated by shame.

says the guy who calls out fat shaming.
you have zero consistency in your thinking

[RandomGuy]

Want to preface that anyone who posts individual polls and handwaving at them claiming victory is an abject moron.

Similarly 538 had Clinton up two points and gave Trump a 35% chance to win in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote at a bit over 1% and Trump won the electoral college ie hitting his 35% chance. If you are too stupid or ignorant to understand what probabilities mean then you really shouldn't comment.

538 does not poll. They take all of the polls and adjust for actual bias and weight them based on precision. IOW if the aggregate of a pollster shows them 3 points in favor of one party over actual results they adjust the pollster to actual results. They give more weight to pollsters that are precise. IOW, They hit the same target consistently regardless of accurate.

A good example of this is Rasmussen. People note how they always bias towards GOP candidates and conclude their results should be thrown out. 538 does not. They adjust for the bias and grade them well because they have a consistent bias.

Anyhow. Their models include individual state polling and the way each state apportions their electors.

They give Biden an 86% chance to win and Trump a 13% chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

They have Biden up 9.2 points up in national polling

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Note that the standard error for polls is ~5%.

Pretty much been following this in the"2020 Blue Wave" thread.

Welcome back.

[pgardn]

Surprising. IMO Americans are one of the least concerned nations/people over shame and reputation. Almost to the point of pride that the World negatively judges them. In part because America will always be the youngest guy in the room. Making the culture and history fundamentally inferior in others eyes.

Americans don't seem to care about being the Western black sheep tbh. Cowboy attitude...

personally I believe this is on course.

Americans have not had the experience of building over century upon century of others that came before them. The history of people who have had this experience, like in Europe, is completely dismissed By the new kid. I personally believe that the history repeats itself mantra is hugely overstated. However, understanding where a culture rests in the present has answers from the past....Americans just don’t get this.

but at least we have the opportunity not to get stuck in one judgment that is riddled with logical holes. like you thinking dark skin color indicates the inability to form any sort of advanced culture. whatever advanced actually means. africans will always be jungle people for you; they play with sticks instead of building sailing ships.

[DMC]

sure

You didn’t even know Trump was impeached so I understand you would not get the connections for the rest of it
I didn't say he wasn't impeached. Trump wouldn't have sailed into a 2nd term being "presidential". That's a silly narrative for the left to use as a troll tactic for the right, and the right can hold on to it for comfort. You're too retarded to follow the conversation.


says the guy who calls out fat shaming.
you have zero consistency in your thinking
Morbid obesity is a medical term, not the same as fat shaming.

You really do miss the mark on most of your responses.

[Rummpd]

Meanwhile it seems Biden’s leads are holding up at this point.

[Will Hunting]

Meanwhile it seems Biden’s leads are holding up at this point.
He’s likely banked close to half of his votes already, and a lot of them were low propensity or first time voters. It’s going to be a big advantage for him over the next 8 days to have more targeted data on voters he still needs to reach.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It's not shame. They've seen the Trump episodes and they want to see something new. Americans get bored easily. This is why they didn't want Mrs Clinton.

You can't convince me that a nation that's about 50% morbidly obese is motivated by shame.

Then you should listen to the republicans and independents voting for Biben say he's an embarrassment.

[Millennial_Messiah]

So who is ready for an ELE bet? Which one of you chuds will agree to stop posting for good if Trump loses?

I won't stop posting, but I will leave the USA in 2021 and post pictures of proof.

[Will Hunting]

I won't stop posting, but I will leave the USA in 2021 and post pictures of proof.
What country, pray tell, do you have in mind as the conservative utopia you plan to move to if Trump loses?

[TimDunkem]

I won't stop posting, but I will leave the USA in 2021 and post pictures of proof.

Leaving this COVID-infected shithole is a reward not a punishment.

[Millennial_Messiah]

What country, pray tell, do you have in mind as the conservative utopia you plan to move to if Trump loses?

Iceland (great weather and gorgeous, in-shape, blonde, snow-white women)
India (preferably in the mountains; exchange rate would make me a king there with my current assets)
Fuckin' Malaysia (though I hate tropical weather, I'd like to visit there for the exotic tropical women tbh)

[Will Hunting]

Iceland (great weather and gorgeous, in-shape, blonde, snow-white women)
India (preferably in the mountains; exchange rate would make me a king there with my current assets)
Fuckin' Malaysia (though I hate tropical weather, I'd like to visit there for the exotic tropical women tbh)
:lmao thinking Iceland is a conservative utopia

[Millennial_Messiah]

Oh... and there's also Eastern Europe, which seems like a lowish cost of living, where there exist fine, eastern european, romanian/slavic/mediterranean women who are loving, womanly and can cook. Could be a really good choice tbh.

Western Europe is pretty much forget about it. The UK is awesome but prohibitively expensive. The rest of Western EU is just too liberal, touristy, and expensive.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao thinking Iceland is a conservative utopia

Faroe Islands are really nice and the weather is amazing. The "dictator" is actually a woman... how much more progressive can you get? But the family values are still conservative. Not necessarily on religion, though, which is good since I'm an atheist.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'd also consider the Balkans and a place like Albania. The women there are fiiiiiiine. Dua Lipa types. I like Armenian women too but that's too close to the Middle East for comfort.

[Joseph Kony]

:lol living in povertyville to escape Biden

[Will Hunting]

Faroe Islands are really nice and the weather is amazing. The "dictator" is actually a woman... how much more progressive can you get? But the family values are still conservative. Not necessarily on religion, though, which is good since I'm an atheist.
Iceland is progressive, that's my point. You're not going to find very many Icelanders who are receptive to the MAGA bullshit you love.

[DMX7]

Iceland is progressive, that's my point. You're not going to find very many Icelanders who are receptive to the MAGA bullshit you love.

Iceland is extremely progressive.... The MAGA stuff is literally a joke to them.

[clambake]

Is trump still shooting his mouth off about the stock market?

[DMX7]

Is trump still shooting his mouth off about the stock market?

LMAO... But we're "rounding the corner" on COVID.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Iceland is extremely progressive.... The MAGA stuff is literally a joke to them.
but you never need AC there... so you don't have to scream at the green new deal commies who tell you you have to set your AC to a miserable 78 degrees when the reality is that I suffer in anything above 68 Fahrenheit.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'm excited for the cold front tonight. Super excited. It always makes me happy. Fall always makes me happy.

Places like Faroe Islands and Iceland are like eternal fall... not so much winter, but fall all year round. Even parts of the UK as well. Pretty weather. I just can't take the heat.

[ElNono]

I certainly do not like him. Just like Reagan, Clinton, Obama and Trump, I expect to see the same who's who of corporate oligarchs get posted to the cabinet and oversight committees. Same fundamental corruption as you see consistently in both parties.

That being said, Biden is not an embarrassment like Trump is. That is what is driving conservatives and independents to Biden. Shame is one of the most powerful motivators to citizens of the US in general.

Pretty much in agreement here.

[Will Hunting]

but you never need AC there... so you don't have to scream at the green new deal commies who tell you you have to set your AC to a miserable 78 degrees when the reality is that I suffer in anything above 68 Fahrenheit.
:lmao you're so out of touch. What you're referring to as the communist green new deal is what's been mainstream energy policy in Western Europe for the last decades. We're the only modern country full of retards who still think we should subsidize fossil fuels as a jobs program for uneducated rednecks who are too lazy to learn a new skill.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lol living in povertyville to escape Biden

Eastern Europe is povertyville? You mean where I can take my US $300k and live like a king for 50+ years? And don't you deny that Eastern European women are gorgeous and make great partners/wives, tbh.

[FrostKing]

personally I believe this is on course.

Americans have not had the experience of building over century upon century of others that came before them. The history of people who have had this experience, like in Europe, is completely dismissed By the new kid. I personally believe that the history repeats itself mantra is hugely overstated. However, understanding where a culture rests in the present has answers from the past....Americans just don’t get this.

but at least we have the opportunity not to get stuck in one judgment that is riddled with logical holes. like you thinking dark skin color indicates the inability to form any sort of advanced culture. whatever advanced actually means. africans will always be jungle people for you; they play with sticks instead of building sailing ships.
Don't get me wrong. America's at times ignorant stubbornness can be admirable. Lone wolf.

Just a different approach than others. I think shame ranks low on the list of concerns. Liberty and especially idividualism tends to have that effect.

[baseline bum]

I won't stop posting, but I will leave the USA in 2021 and post pictures of proof.

What? Are you going to go to Mexico, Haiti, or Turkey? No one else wants shithole Americans in their borders.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao you're so out of touch. What you're referring to as the communist green new deal is what's been mainstream energy policy in Western Europe for the last decades. We're the only modern country full of retards who still think we should subsidize fossil fuels as a jobs program for uneducated rednecks who are too lazy to learn a new skill.

anything over 68 degrees and my AC will be on... 'nuff said. And I have my gun in case the pinko green police try to tell me how to live my life. I'm a libertarian, not a GOPer. I'm well educated and have a pristine GPA from an excellent university. But I won't have no stinkin' government telling me how I can live my life and telling me to suffer when I physiologically can't tolerate the heat.

[Millennial_Messiah]

What? Are you going to go to Mexico, Haiti, or Turkey? No one else wants shithole Americans in their borders.

Eastern Europe
Iceland
Faroe Islands

Maybe Malaysia or India just for the adventure

NZ isn't on my short list because of the earthquakes.

[vy65]

Eastern Europe is povertyville? You mean where I can take my US $300k and live like a king for 50+ years? And don't you deny that Eastern European women are gorgeous and make great partners/wives, tbh.

:lmao $3:lol:lolk

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao $3:lol:lolk
You want me to post a picture of my savings account or something? Because I'll gladly do it, like today.

[Leetonidas]

Eastern Europe is povertyville? You mean where I can take my US $300k and live like a king for 50+ years? And don't you deny that Eastern European women are gorgeous and make great partners/wives, tbh.

Everyone knows you're a nerd living at home. :lol stfu

[vy65]

You want me to post a picture of my savings account or something? Because I'll gladly do it, like today.

Yes, please include account and routing info too while you're at it

[Rummpd]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/6037687002

Combined 538 and RCP results/a little narrower is take home but Biden still ahead

[pgardn]

I didn't say he wasn't impeached. Trump wouldn't have sailed into a 2nd term being "presidential". That's a silly narrative for the left to use as a troll tactic for the right, and the right can hold on to it for comfort. You're too retarded to follow the conversation.


Morbid obesity is a medical term, not the same as fat shaming.

You really do miss the mark on most of your responses.

So now you bring Ms. Crutchfield to your game so you wont feel that L.
Is Ms. Cruthfield a fat ass nit picker, or just Morbidly obese?

[Bogie]

Oh... and there's also Eastern Europe, which seems like a lowish cost of living, where there exist fine, eastern european, romanian/slavic/mediterranean women who are loving, womanly and can cook. Could be a really good choice tbh.

Western Europe is pretty much forget about it. The UK is awesome but prohibitively expensive. The rest of Western EU is just too liberal, touristy, and expensive.

I hear Poland is a great place to be racist and meet Hispanic women with fathers who are illegal, yet will commit voter fraud in American elections from poland.

you should get with frost, I’m sure he will probably even give you a place to stay in Poland, where he definitely lives

[RandomGuy]

I won't stop posting, but I will leave the USA in 2021 and post pictures of proof.

Do tell. Panama?

[RandomGuy]

Iceland (great weather and gorgeous, in-shape, blonde, snow-white women)
India (preferably in the mountains; exchange rate would make me a king there with my current assets)
Fuckin' Malaysia (though I hate tropical weather, I'd like to visit there for the exotic tropical women tbh)

Iceland... :lmao

Good luck. Socialist as they get, dumbass.

India... good luck with that. First monsoon, and you will be packing.

Malaysia...

As of the 2010 Population and Housing Census, 61.3 percent of the population practices Islam; 19.8 percent Buddhism; 9.2 percent Christianity; 6.3 percent Hinduism; and 3.4 percent traditional Chinese religions

Feel free to say how much you hate islam there. :lmao

Seriously, this post made my day in its sheer cluelessness.

[velik_m]

Wait, did someone write Iceland and Faroe Islands have amazing weather? :lmao I mean, i guess, if you're fond of constant rain and fog and you hate warm summers.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Wait, did someone write Iceland and Faroe Islands have amazing weather? :lmao I mean, i guess, if you're fond of constant rain and fog and you hate warm summers.
I hate/get sick in anything above 68F.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Iceland... :lmao

Good luck. Socialist as they get, dumbass.

India... good luck with that. First monsoon, and you will be packing.

Malaysia...


Feel free to say how much you hate islam there. :lmao

Seriously, this post made my day in its sheer cluelessness.
But, the women. I suspect all women are better and less bitchy than American/Canadian/Australian/UK women.

As for Islam, not all Muslims are created equal. Look at a place like Albania, Bosnia. Great, open minded women who might identify as Muslim and be mildly religious but otherwise you couldn't really tell that they're a Muslim. Definitely not the flavor of Islam that you'd see in Saudi Arabia or Qatar or Palestine or Iran or the rest of the fuckhole middle east.

Malaysia is legally a secular country. Indonesia is even more Muslim in terms of % (it's actually got the most muslims in the world and the fastest growing Muslim country!!) but they are known for prostitutes, strip joints and easy women. Again the places are tropical and full of tropical disease but it'd only be a short term visit. Maybe spend 3 weeks there and breed 3 local exotic women while I'm at it. No reciprocity for child support... HAHA.

[DMC]

Then you should listen to the republicans and independents voting for Biben say he's an embarrassment.

If they voted for Trump in 2016 and didn't know who he was then, they should look in the mirror.

[DMC]

Wait, did someone write Iceland and Faroe Islands have amazing weather? :lmao I mean, i guess, if you're fond of constant rain and fog and you hate warm summers.

Or your name is Flokie

[DMC]

So now you bring Ms. Crutchfield to your game so you wont feel that L.
Is Ms. Cruthfield a fat ass nit picker, or just Morbidly obese?

Not only did you misspell "Crutchfield" but you also make no fucking sense. You're a blithering idiot.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

If they voted for Trump in 2016 and didn't know who he was then, they should look in the mirror.

Nice to see you concede the point and instead appeal to ridicule. :tu

[FuzzyLumpkins]

dp

[pgardn]

Not only did you misspell "Crutchfield" but you also make no fucking sense. You're a blithering idiot.

You..

Know exactly what I’m talking about.
But the rest of the board most likely does not, and you are good with that.
Keeping up appearances as a fake.
Crutchfield is a proper noun you dolt, you don’t think there are diff ways to spell it?

Why don’t you get consumed with my IQ again.

[FrostKing]

Oh... and there's also Eastern Europe, which seems like a lowish cost of living, where there exist fine, eastern european, romanian/slavic/mediterranean women who are loving, womanly and can cook. Could be a really good choice tbh.

Western Europe is pretty much forget about it. The UK is awesome but prohibitively expensive. The rest of Western EU is just too liberal, touristy, and expensive.
Are you trying to be a bachelor or start a family? Chances are you'll fall in love with an Eastern woman fairly early. If you want to bang a buncha chicks just live near the Mexican border since you'll have promiscuous Western women too.

Eastern Europe is where you fall in love traveling and then settle down. Start a family. Live a simple, safe and valued life.

[pgardn]

Are you trying to be a bachelor or start a family? Chances are you'll fall in love with an Eastern woman fairly early. If you want to bang a buncha chicks just live near the Mexican border.

Eastern Europe is where you fall in love traveling and then settle down. Start a family. Live a simple, safe and valued life.

But he would have to learn the art of hating black people

[FrostKing]

But he would have to learn the art of hating black people
Out of sight, out of mind.

My dislike is rooted in blacks being pigeon holed all over American culture.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

1320801127995158529

[ElNono]

Iceland (great weather and gorgeous, in-shape, blonde, snow-white women)
India (preferably in the mountains; exchange rate would make me a king there with my current assets)
Fuckin' Malaysia (though I hate tropical weather, I'd like to visit there for the exotic tropical women tbh)

You should consider Iran, tbh... heck most Arab countries... all about extreme conservatism...

[Rummpd]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct26

Trump actually takes the lead but of course it is the RP that is always skewed toward him but still?

[Will Hunting]

Yeah COVID is surging and McConnell just called a senate recess until after the election, removing any stimulus hope. Biden wins the popular vote by 10+% and 350+ electoral colleges.

[pgardn]

Out of sight, out of mind.

My dislike is rooted in blacks being pigeon holed all over American culture.

if you were black you definitely want to be out of sight in
Eastern Europe. The hate is real

there are a few desperate black entertainers in soccer that still pay the price to play there
for financial purposes

[pgardn]

Yeah COVID is surging and McConnell just called a senate recess until after the election, removing any stimulus hope. Biden wins the popular vote by 10+% and 350+ electoral colleges.

McConnell knows it’s over, time to save himself

[Millennial_Messiah]

You should consider Iran, tbh... heck most Arab countries... all about extreme conservatism...

And pretend to convert to Islam... :lol well I don't shave my beard much, so I guess I could pass for Muslim except I'm pretty pasty this year because minimal outdoor activity due to covid, so meh...

Still think Eastern Europe is the way to go. The experienced 40 years of communism and don't really like it. Their economy isn't great but that's good if you're an American coming in with US dollars, that can stretch you a long ways. Also, the women are hot and mediterranean and womanly, loyal, etc and not so progressive (but not so conservative in terms of being scared to take off their clothes)... just good women overall.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Yeah COVID is surging

Well no shit, it's October and the sun is headed down under... massive cold front across the US... surprise surprise? It's 40 degrees in SAN ANTONIO right now.

[Will Hunting]

Well no shit, it's October and the sun is headed down under... massive cold front across the US... surprise surprise? It's 40 degrees in SAN ANTONIO right now.
:lol MAGAtards now pretending this surge was inevitable after they believed Trump when he said it’d be gone by Easter.

[baseline bum]

McConnell knows it’s over, time to save himself

You mean time to fuck the country as much as possible since he expects a Biden victory and wants to hand him a completely fucked nation.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lol MAGAtards now pretending this surge was inevitable after they believed Trump when he said it’d be gone by Easter.

Me? Nope. Ever since early March my expectation was that it would be at least a 9 month issue, similar to the swine flu. Best case scenario was SARS 2003 where it did end by summertime. That's why I left my company badge and laptop back in Louisville on March 13th; otherwise, I'd be looking at over $50 in shipping fees.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Are you trying to be a bachelor or start a family? Chances are you'll fall in love with an Eastern woman fairly early. If you want to bang a buncha chicks just live near the Mexican border since you'll have promiscuous Western women too.

Eastern Europe is where you fall in love traveling and then settle down. Start a family. Live a simple, safe and valued life.
I do want to have a family .......and also take vacation trips around the world and make love to and breed other women on the side and have illigitimate children with them and facetime/zoom/skype them across the world.

[Winehole23]

You mean time to fuck the country as much as possible since he expects a Biden victory and wants to hand him a completely fucked nation.PPT is on it, we snapped right back from that nasty 600 point dive right after opening bell.

(Senate adjourns without passing COVID-19 assistance.)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/plunge-protection-team.asp

[Millennial_Messiah]

Iceland... :lmao

Good luck. Socialist as they get, dumbass.

I would accept a little mild socialism in favor of cool weather (not constantly freezing, but nice and cool, kind of like the weather Texas is having today) and free healthcare. I fucking HATE patient-pay healthcare. Healthcare should be a right, not a privilege. However, I believe education is a privilege, not a right.

In my sim cities back in the day I would plop disease research centers, clinics and hospitals all over my city, fund them to the max, but not subsidize public education, only build private schools and only fund the university. My city would be flourishing with middle class people and the average life expectancy was like 97.

"Life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness" == anyone who says healthcare should be patient-pay instead of subsidized, doesn't believe life is a right.

[Will Hunting]

I would accept a little mild socialism in favor of cool weather (not constantly freezing, but nice and cool, kind of like the weather Texas is having today) and free healthcare. I fucking HATE patient-pay healthcare. Healthcare should be a right, not a privilege. However, I believe education is a privilege, not a right.

In my sim cities back in the day I would plop disease research centers, clinics and hospitals all over my city, fund them to the max, but not subsidize public education, only build private schools and only fund the university. My city would be flourishing with middle class people and the average life expectancy was like 97.

"Life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness" == anyone who says healthcare should be patient-pay instead of subsidized, doesn't believe life is a right.
“Patient-pay healthcare” is a great saying tbh

[Millennial_Messiah]

“Patient-pay healthcare” is a great saying tbh

would have been a great running point for joe biden, but it's too late tbh. Patient-pay healthcare is probably my #1 gripe with the GOP. #2 would be the over religious stuff like banning early term abortion. I am against abortion after 16 weeks though.

[Millennial_Messiah]

In fact, I may have just defected from Trump just this morning on the thought of patient-pay healthcare. It's bullshit and pay transparency is a major problem. Providers should NOT be allowed to bill people only by mail (with no electronic option) and honestly, patients should not be responsible for a penny beyond what they pay at the counter at the time of the office visit/appointment. It's bullshit and unfair that it negatively hurts their credit score and basically right to own a home, even a car.

Although, the Obamacare options in Texas are downright lousy. My mom had Oscar (the shittiest ACA company ever) and the doctors gave her a 1963 era iPad-sized pacemaker instead of one of the modern ones, when she didn't even really need a pacemaker. The doctors fucked her over and charged $100K for a shitty pacemaker. My mom only had to pay $1K out of pocket, but, for the worst pacemaker in the industry that only lasts 3 years instead of one of the modern ones that last 7-12 years. It was bullshit. ACA in Texas is bullshit. It might be better elsewhere, not sure.

Personally I'm in favor of scrapping the ACA altogether (yes, the individual mandate was the worst part) and implementing socialized medicine. They wouldn't have to raise taxes all that significantly really. But the red states down south are way too deeply embedded in patient-pay healthcare, so they'll have to figure out how to circumvent the 10th amendment, which is an amendment I'm all for repealing.

[RandomGuy]

In fact, I may have just defected from Trump just this morning on the thought of patient-pay healthcare. It's bullshit and pay transparency is a major problem. Providers should NOT be allowed to bill people only by mail (with no electronic option) and honestly, patients should not be responsible for a penny beyond what they pay at the counter at the time of the office visit/appointment. It's bullshit and unfair that it negatively hurts their credit score and basically right to own a home, even a car.

Although, the Obamacare options in Texas are downright lousy. My mom had Oscar (the shittiest ACA company ever) and the doctors gave her a 1963 era iPad-sized pacemaker instead of one of the modern ones, when she didn't even really need a pacemaker. The doctors fucked her over and charged $100K for a shitty pacemaker. My mom only had to pay $1K out of pocket, but, for the worst pacemaker in the industry that only lasts 3 years instead of one of the modern ones that last 7-12 years. It was bullshit. ACA in Texas is bullshit. It might be better elsewhere, not sure.

Personally I'm in favor of scrapping the ACA altogether (yes, the individual mandate was the worst part) and implementing socialized medicine. They wouldn't have to raise taxes all that significantly really. But the red states down south are way too deeply embedded in patient-pay healthcare, so they'll have to figure out how to circumvent the 10th amendment, which is an amendment I'm all for repealing.

You will never get any kind of healthcare or insurance reform from the Republican party. Ever.

They are too deeply bought out by their donor class, which includes a lot of industries buying "business friendly" politicians. Dems are little better at the moment.

Republicans are also hogtied by their "no taxes" pledge that most of them have signed (Norquist). Going back on that means getting primaried as "not conservative enough".

They have painted themselves into a morally and intellectually bankrupt position.

Health care is simply not something that the free market really offers any kind of reasonable solution for, simply due to the economic concept of elasticity.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Health care is simply not something that the free market really offers any kind of reasonable solution for, simply due to the economic concept of elasticity.
Agreed, healthcare is extremely difficult to solve and manage. Demand is inelastic so a vertical line instead of a curve/diagonal line. But you actually don't need higher taxes to solve the problem if you can sequester other crap like foreign aid, foreign wars, green projects, get rid of medicaid, CHIP and ACA in favor of socialized medicine.

Still, you can't forget about life expectancies in Scandinavian countries and other parts of Europe being in the high 80s approaching 90, whereas the USA has been stuck on 80-81 since the 1970s.

Say diet all you want, but, they eat a lot of carbs and sweets in Europe too, and they live almost a decade longer on average. What's the gap, tbh?!??

[Will Hunting]

would have been a great running point for joe biden, but it's too late tbh. Patient-pay healthcare is probably my #1 gripe with the GOP. #2 would be the over religious stuff like banning early term abortion. I am against abortion after 16 weeks though.
Would have been a great running point for every Democrat. The Dems are bad at stuff like that though, when Republicans have an agenda they get in a room and determine how they’re going to sell it. After that it’s a unified front and they’re delivering the message over and over again until your ears are bleeding.

I’d be fine with banning abortion after 20 weeks (outside of instances when the moms life is in danger) if in exchange is meant abortion was no longer used as a political football.

[RandomGuy]

Agreed, healthcare is extremely difficult to solve and manage. Demand is inelastic so a vertical line instead of a curve/diagonal line. But you actually don't need higher taxes to solve the problem if you can sequester other crap like foreign aid, foreign wars, green projects, get rid of medicaid, CHIP and ACA in favor of socialized medicine.

Still, you can't forget about life expectancies in Scandinavian countries and other parts of Europe being in the high 80s approaching 90, whereas the USA has been stuck on 80-81 since the 1970s.

Say diet all you want, but, they eat a lot of carbs and sweets in Europe too, and they live almost a decade longer on average. What's the gap, tbh?!??

What percentage of the federal budget do you think is foreign aid?

[RandomGuy]

Agreed, healthcare is extremely difficult to solve and manage. Demand is inelastic so a vertical line instead of a curve/diagonal line. But you actually don't need higher taxes to solve the problem if you can sequester other crap like foreign aid, foreign wars, green projects, get rid of medicaid, CHIP and ACA in favor of socialized medicine.

Still, you can't forget about life expectancies in Scandinavian countries and other parts of Europe being in the high 80s approaching 90, whereas the USA has been stuck on 80-81 since the 1970s.

Say diet all you want, but, they eat a lot of carbs and sweets in Europe too, and they live almost a decade longer on average. What's the gap, tbh?!??

Poverty. Lack of a social safety net.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Would have been a great running point for every Democrat. The Dems are bad at stuff like that though, when Republicans have an agenda they get in a room and determine how they’re going to sell it. After that it’s a unified front and they’re delivering the message over and over again until your ears are bleeding.

I’d be fine with banning abortion after 20 weeks (outside of instances when the moms life is in danger) if in exchange is meant abortion was no longer used as a political football.

that's the only exception tbh but it needs to be signed by multiple accredited doctors, not just one. If it's a financial or personal decision to abort it should be done within the first trimester honestly. Also, rape is not an excuse for a mid or late term abortion. There is no evidence that a baby formed through forced sexual intercourse turns out less healthy or viable or smart than a baby conceived through consensual sex.

[Millennial_Messiah]

What percentage of the federal budget do you think is foreign aid?

Find. End all proxy wars. Including Shillary's crap in Libya. Bashar Assad is NOT our enemy, fwiw.

[Will Hunting]

that's the only exception tbh but it needs to be signed by multiple accredited doctors, not just one. If it's a financial or personal decision to abort it should be done within the first trimester honestly. Also, rape is not an excuse for a mid or late term abortion. There is no evidence that a baby formed through forced sexual intercourse turns out less healthy or viable or smart than a baby conceived through consensual sex.
I don’t mean to trivialize rape but 20 weeks (4+ months) is enough time to make a decision, even for a woman who’s been raped. Like I said, only exception after 20 weeks would be a health issue.

But again, the only way I’d ever be OK with a ban on abortions past 20 weeks is if there were no restrictions on abortions before 20 weeks and women had easy access during that time. Conservatives would never agree to that because they need to be able to use abortion as a political football for dumb evangelicals who don’t have a pot to piss in vote Republican.

[baseline bum]

I don’t mean to trivialize rape but 20 weeks (4+ months) is enough time to make a decision, even for a woman who’s been raped. Like I said, only exception after 20 weeks would be a health issue.

But again, the only way I’d ever be OK with a ban on abortions past 20 weeks is if there were no restrictions on abortions before 20 weeks and women had easy access during that time. Conservatives would never agree to that because they need to be able to use abortion as a political football for dumb evangelicals who don’t have a pot to piss in vote Republican.

White evangelicals who don't have a pot to piss in would vote Republican without abortion too, because they'd still have Jim Crow to vote for.

[Trill Clinton]

I can't stand white evangelicals. They are against abortion but then also are against social programs like welfare, child care, housing, etc. Forcing women who don't want the burden of raising a child they can't afford to do it with no assistance is crazy.

[Spurminator]

I don’t mean to trivialize rape but 20 weeks (4+ months) is enough time to make a decision, even for a woman who’s been raped. Like I said, only exception after 20 weeks would be a health issue.

But again, the only way I’d ever be OK with a ban on abortions past 20 weeks is if there were no restrictions on abortions before 20 weeks and women had easy access during that time. Conservatives would never agree to that because they need to be able to use abortion as a political football for dumb evangelicals who don’t have a pot to piss in vote Republican.

The anatomy ultrasound typically happens near the 20-week mark, and this is also where fetal heartbeat anomalies are found. In some cases those anomalies point to fatal conditions and the mother/parents have to decide with their doctor whether it's worth bringing a child into the world to potentially live on a breathing tube. Less than 1% of abortions happen after 20 weeks and they're almost always health-related. They're basically never cases of the mother "changing her mind" about having a baby. 24 weeks gives these parents a little more breathing room to monitor their baby's condition and make the right choice with their doctor.

This is a good (long) article written by an OB/GYN friend of mine about her experience and her thoughts on the 20 week ban.
https://www.scarymommy.com/why-a-20-week-abortion-ban-is-scary-for-all-women/

[Will Hunting]

The anatomy ultrasound typically happens near the 20-week mark, and this is also where fetal heartbeat anomalies are found. In some cases those anomalies point to fatal conditions and the mother/parents have to decide with their doctor whether it's worth bringing a child into the world to potentially live on a breathing tube. Less than 1% of abortions happen after 20 weeks and they're almost always health-related. They're basically never cases of the mother "changing her mind" about having a baby. 24 weeks gives these parents a little more breathing room to monitor their baby's condition and make the right choice with their doctor.

This is a good (long) article written by an OB/GYN friend of mine about her experience and her thoughts on the 20 week ban.
https://www.scarymommy.com/why-a-20-week-abortion-ban-is-scary-for-all-women/
Yeah I knew almost no abortions happened after 20 weeks which is why I’m fine with banning them after 20 weeks, but 24 weeks is fine with me too if that actually makes a difference in being able to monitor the baby’s health.

[boutons_deux]

You mean time to fuck the country as much as possible since he expects a Biden victory and wants to hand him a completely fucked nation.

that's exactly the Repug strategy.

Trash and Repugs in full "Nero Decree" mode so Biden/Dems will inherit, be pre-occupied with a Repug smoking carnage, which the Repugs will try to extend into 2022 campaign, just like 2009-2010

[RandomGuy]

Yeah I knew almost no abortions happened after 20 weeks which is why I’m fine with banning them after 20 weeks, but 24 weeks is fine with me too if that actually makes a difference in being able to monitor the baby’s health.

Personally, I don't think that the government should be interfering at all in the decisions made between women and doctors.

You and I both know, the religious right, if you give them that will not be satisfied.

"Meet me in the middle" says the unfair man.

"Thank you for taking a step in my direction." (steps back a step)

"Meet me in the middle" says the unfair man.

[RandomGuy]

You mean time to fuck the country as much as possible since he expects a Biden victory and wants to hand him a completely fucked nation.

That is exactly what I expect to happen.

Some will see the writing on the wall, and will refuse unlawful orders.

We are long past the time where competent people or principled people who might know the difference would be in a lot of positions might say no.

Certainly looks like we are careening towards a massive spike or the 'rona. That fuckery could have some serious life-threatening effects.

If it gets bad, the GOP will take all of the blame in voters minds. That stain will not come out easily.

[baseline bum]

If it gets bad, the GOP will take all of the blame in voters minds. That stain will not come out easily.

I don't buy it. Took less than two years for people to forgive Bush and elect the tebaggers (even Mass went red) and he had a way lower approval rating than Trump has ever had.

[Will Hunting]

I don't buy it. Took less than two years for people to forgive Bush and elect the tebaggers (even Mass went red) and he had a way lower approval rating than Trump has ever had.
I generally agree with this except for the part about Mass. It was a special election where the dumb bitch who won the Democratic primary literally went on vacation the month following the primary and didn’t do any campaigning. It was a fluke in that instance.

[ElNono]

And pretend to convert to Islam... :lol well I don't shave my beard much, so I guess I could pass for Muslim except I'm pretty pasty this year because minimal outdoor activity due to covid, so meh...

Still think Eastern Europe is the way to go. The experienced 40 years of communism and don't really like it. Their economy isn't great but that's good if you're an American coming in with US dollars, that can stretch you a long ways. Also, the women are hot and mediterranean and womanly, loyal, etc and not so progressive (but not so conservative in terms of being scared to take off their clothes)... just good women overall.

You get to stone teh gays to death too, tbh... that's conservative nirvana right there... :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

You get to stone teh gays to death too, tbh... that's conservative nirvana right there... :lol

Yes... I am very anti gender queer. Except for the religion and no abortion-no way crap, I'm pretty socially conservative... another exception is I'm okay with public nudity, especially toplessness. I have an unhealthy obsession with boobies.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I generally agree with this except for the part about Mass. It was a special election where the dumb bitch who won the Democratic primary literally went on vacation the month following the primary and didn’t do any campaigning. It was a fluke in that instance.

are you referring to the special election where Ted Kennedy died? Which would have sped up Obamacare by about 2 years by blocking the filibuster.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I don’t mean to trivialize rape but 20 weeks (4+ months) is enough time to make a decision, even for a woman who’s been raped. Like I said, only exception after 20 weeks would be a health issue.

But again, the only way I’d ever be OK with a ban on abortions past 20 weeks is if there were no restrictions on abortions before 20 weeks and women had easy access during that time. Conservatives would never agree to that because they need to be able to use abortion as a political football for dumb evangelicals who don’t have a pot to piss in vote Republican.

Easy access is 100% ok with me. But they should pay out of pocket. No taxpayer, subsidized dollars. Same for tying their tubes, vasectomy, hysterectomy (except in case of medical emergency), etc. Even contraceptives and birth control. Sex is a choice. The government shouldn't subsidize it. Taxpayer dollars should be spent on protecting those who are already actually alive.

[Will Hunting]

are you referring to the special election where Ted Kennedy died? Which would have sped up Obamacare by about 2 years by blocking the filibuster.
You’re revising history. Obamacare was passed before that special election when it was still a Dem appointee in Ted Kennedy’s seat. They had a 60 vote majority to pass Obamacare after convincing Arlen Specter to go back to caucusing with the Democrats. What took Obamacare so long was giving the insurance industry and corn industry enough corporate welfare so the senate DINOs like Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson to go along with it.

[Will Hunting]

Easy access is 100% ok with me. But they should pay out of pocket. No taxpayer, subsidized dollars. Same for tying their tubes, vasectomy, hysterectomy (except in case of medical emergency), etc. Even contraceptives and birth control. Sex is a choice. The government shouldn't subsidize it. Taxpayer dollars should be spent on protecting those who are already actually alive.
This is a really stupid mindset. Subsidizing an abortion is a whole lot cheaper than subsidizing a welfare baby.

[DMC]

You..

Know exactly what I’m talking about.
But the rest of the board most likely does not, and you are good with that.
Keeping up appearances as a fake.
Crutchfield is a proper noun you dolt, you don’t think there are diff ways to spell it?

Why don’t you get consumed with my IQ again.

Needing to edit a shit post is :lol

[Trill Clinton]

Just got back from voting. I had to go to Seguin and do a limited ballot but got it done.

[DMC]

Nice to see you concede the point and instead appeal to ridicule. :tu

I didn't read your wall of text. I can surmise easily though just by considering you like to talk down to people and pretend to be intelligent.

[Millennial_Messiah]

This is a really stupid mindset. Subsidizing an abortion is a whole lot cheaper than subsidizing a welfare baby.

Well that isn't false either.

I'm all for some population control, i.e. a parent should have to prove financial assets and/or work stability in order to have a child... no welfare babies and eliminate CHIP.

[DMC]

This is a really stupid mindset. Subsidizing an abortion is a whole lot cheaper than subsidizing a welfare baby.

Goes to show you that not all their objections can be quantified in dollar amounts. Some of them feel they should not be forced to pay for something that's against their core beliefs, which abortion certainly is. Anyone who can claim to believe in the christian god and still think abortions are just medical procedures needs to add another delusion to their growing list of mental disorders.

[ChumpDumper]

Goes to show you that not all their objections can be quantified in dollar amounts. Some of them feel they should not be forced to pay for something that's against their core beliefs, which abortion certainly is. Anyone who can claim to believe in the christian god and still think abortions are just medical procedures needs to add another delusion to their growing list of mental disorders.Can Quakers get their military spending refunded?

[boutons_deux]

Just got back from voting. I had to go to Seguin and do a limited ballot but got it done.

limited?

[Trill Clinton]

limited?
Just national and state elections

[Millennial_Messiah]

Goes to show you that not all their objections can be quantified in dollar amounts. Some of them feel they should not be forced to pay for something that's against their core beliefs, which abortion certainly is. Anyone who can claim to believe in the christian god and still think abortions are just medical procedures needs to add another delusion to their growing list of mental disorders.
I don't believe in any god but I'm a humanist, tbh... my goal is to increase human longevity to 100+, maybe 125+, and help the population emphasize having less children, max 3 per woman, factoring in that there are lesbians, straight women who choose to not have kids, and women who cannot have kids.

[Will Hunting]

Goes to show you that not all their objections can be quantified in dollar amounts. Some of them feel they should not be forced to pay for something that's against their core beliefs, which abortion certainly is. Anyone who can claim to believe in the christian god and still think abortions are just medical procedures needs to add another delusion to their growing list of mental disorders.
More incoherent philosophical rambling.

I was responding to someone who was quantifying it in dollar amounts.

For someone who’s ostensibly pro choice, you sure spend a lot of time defending the political beliefs of bible thumping evangelicals.

[ElNono]

Is old Joe going back to the freezer until Tuesday, tbh?? I saw he was doing some sort of speech today surrounded by 8 people for half an hour... where is Kamala?

This is probably the easiest Presidential election in ages, against one of the most unpopular presidents in 50+ years, but if there's a party that can fumble this shit it's the DNC.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I didn't read your wall of text. I can surmise easily though just by considering you like to talk down to people and pretend to be intelligent.

Sorry to trigger your insecurity. And you were responding to two sentences. Still no real argument. Once again you are boring.

[Trainwreck2100]

Is old Joe going back to the freezer until Tuesday, tbh?? I saw he was doing some sort of speech today surrounded by 8 people for half an hour... where is Kamala?

This is probably the easiest Presidential election in ages, against one of the most unpopular presidents in 50+ years, but if there's a party that can fumble this shit it's the DNC.

No he's hitting Florida Iowa and Wisconsin

[boutons_deux]

A state ELECTED judge running for re-election allows open carry at polling site

Michigan Judge Accused of Jeopardizing Safety and Democracy With Reversal of Open Carry Ban at Polling Places

a Michigan judge on Tuesday struck down a directive from the secretary of state banning the open carry of firearms at polling places on Election Day.

The Associated Press reports (https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-christopher-murray-michigan-elections-jocelyn-benson-07f41ae9d75478f6a294edba3af8eee3)

Michigan Court of Claims Judge Christopher Murray granted a preliminary injunction (https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/politics/michigan-judge-open-carry-ban/index.html)

in favor of gun rights advocates

who had filed a lawsuit challenging an October 16 order (https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/16/michigan-open-carry-guns-polling-places-election-day/3677457001/) from Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson declaring a universal ban on the open carry of guns within 100 feet of polling places on November 3.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/10/27/michigan-judge-accused-jeopardizing-safety-and-democracy-reversal-open-carry-ban

A deeply diseased country with 10Ms of truly fucked up citizens

[Winehole23]

Sorry to trigger your insecurity. And you were responding to two sentences. Still no real argument. Once again you are boring.i DoN't HaVe To ReAd, i CaN jUsT tELL.

(i Am VeRy sMaRt)

[Rummpd]

https://www.trendfollowing.com/nate-silver/

Silver is not God but merely a common analytics guy.

[Winehole23]

https://www.trendfollowing.com/nate-silver/

Silver is not God but merely a common analytics guy.There's a hank of of straw peeking out from your shirt.

[Rummpd]

There's a hank of of straw peeking out from your shirt.

Silver is a smart guy but made his name in sports and then some very obvious political predictions but always hedges his bets

[DMC]

Sorry to trigger your insecurity. And you were responding to two sentences. Still no real argument. Once again you are boring.

Sorry this is happening to you

[DMC]

More incoherent philosophical rambling.

I was responding to someone who was quantifying it in dollar amounts.

For someone who’s ostensibly pro choice, you sure spend a lot of time defending the political beliefs of bible thumping evangelicals.

Subsidizing isn't just about funding. It's also an indication of support. Nothing philosophical about that. Pointing out the cheaper option doesn't really address the underlying thought process.

Don't confuse commentary with defense. No one needs to defend religious beliefs. Understanding their objections is better than pretending everyone but you is wrong

[pgardn]

Don't confuse commentary with defense. No one needs to defend religious beliefs. Understanding their objections is better than pretending everyone but you is wrong


sure they do if those beliefs affect an entire society made up of many not necessarily having those beliefs. And you can understand their objections and still question the impact a certain religious belief is having on a society. We can walk and chew gum. This is just a ridiculously stupid argument. You again set up false parameters.

[pgardn]

Needing to edit a shit post is :lol

mrs. Crutchfield shows her self again.
ocd and post master general; tough act but you go old lady

[Winehole23]

Sabato's Crystal Ball


To measure this tendency, we’ll introduce a concept called “elasticity” for counties. This concept measures the deviations in a county’s percentage-based vote margin across a set of elections, which we use as a proxy for the openness of a county’s voters to voting for candidates across the political spectrum, regardless of political affiliation.


It is important to note that what this metric measures is the vote-based electoral “bipartisanship” of counties across offices — i.e. “How much has this county’s vote varied across elections?” This is different from the concept of “swing counties.” You can imagine a county being fairly elastic as it oscillates between R+20 and R+50, while being reliably red — we see that a fair amount of voters are open to voting for the Democrat, even if the county appears to be solidly Republican in each of those hypothetical elections. In a closely-contested election, those margins can make all the difference.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/elasticity-in-swing-states/

[Winehole23]

In Florida, the Democrats would be gladdened to see that their support bases in Broward (E 11.2) and Miami-Dade (E 21.3) are very and moderately inelastic, respectively. This means that their support is locked in and that there is little room for them to fall in these areas. Obama won the state twice thanks to an incredibly strong turnout machine that brought base voters to the polls in droves, and Biden will seek to replicate that.


The Republicans, however, cannot feel as safe. The Florida Panhandle, a reliably Republican area, is one of the more elastic parts of this turnout-based state, and the trio of counties above Tampa Bay (Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus) are fairly elastic counties that are generally double-digit Republican strongholds — in fact, Hernando (E 46.3) and Citrus (E 41.1) are two of the five most elastic counties in Florida. If Biden is able to siphon away a significant amount of votes from these areas, holding the state would become an incredibly tall ask for Republicans.

[Winehole23]

Although a bluer-than-usual national environment may help them along the way, flipping North Carolina is a tougher task for Democrats and will rely on them turning out their voting base in the counties of Wake (E 29.7), Guilford (E 21.8), and Cumberland (E 15.3), and continuing the swing of suburban voters in Wake County (one of the few populous areas with any elasticity for them to capitalize on).

[Winehole23]

Arizona falls in the middle of the spectrum of states we are analyzing — although it is nowhere near as elastic as Wisconsin, it is certainly more elastic than Florida.


Pinal (E 47.3) and Maricopa (E 46.9) are the two most interesting counties to examine. Traditionally Republican, the high elasticity of these counties would be a source of concern for several Republicans, as they can ill-afford to lose too many votes here if they wish to hang on to the state at the Senate and presidential levels. Maricopa, in particular, is home to Phoenix and its suburbs and cast more than 1.5 million votes in 2016. The county includes significant pockets of white college-educated voters, a group that Biden has been making gains with in polls.


The exceptionally high elasticity of Maricopa, when combined with the sheer volume of voters present, makes this a particularly appealing target county for Democrats, as investment here could flip an incredibly high amount of voters, and Kyrsten Sinema used this to great effect in her 2018 Senate victory over Martha McSally.

[Will Hunting]

The early voting numbers by party registration are about as bad as it gets for Trump in Maricopa County.

[Ef-man]

Trump is in trouble.

Biden is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.


https://news.yahoo.com/biden-solid-lead-wisconsin-narrower-192851932.html

[Reck]

The early voting numbers by party registration are about as bad as it gets for Trump in Maricopa County.

So that's why he's in there today doing a rally?

Go figure.

[Will Hunting]

Trump is in trouble.

Biden is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.


https://news.yahoo.com/biden-solid-lead-wisconsin-narrower-192851932.html
Biden is going to win Wisconsin by 10+% because of how bad the COVID outbreak is there. Trump holding a superspreader event when Wisconsin hospitals are at full capacity really isn't helping his popularity. The Republican state house probably loses its gerrymandered supermajority too.

I think his win in Michigan will be comfortable but not 10+% comfortable. Probably high single digits.

[Will Hunting]

So that's why he's in there today doing a rally?

Go figure.
Last I checked Dems had a 100k+ advantage for votes cast in Maricopa County even though the county has sizeably more registered Rs than registered Ds.

Also even though Republicans have full legislative and executive control over AZ, the state has a Democratic secretary of state who's busting her ass to make sure ballots are counted on election night and that no fuckery occurs. Maricopa and Pima County also have Dem county recorders, so it's not going to be a state like PA where Trump will be able to stop ballots from counting.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Biden is going to win Wisconsin by 10+% because of how bad the COVID outbreak is there. Trump holding a superspreader event when Wisconsin hospitals are at full capacity really isn't helping his popularity. The Republican state house probably loses its gerrymandered supermajority too.

I think his win in Michigan will be comfortable but not 10+% comfortable. Probably high single digits.

I don't think it's impossible or even unlikely that both WI and MN flip opposite ways from 2016 based on what I saw. Tina Smith could be in trouble too, tbh.

[Will Hunting]

I don't think it's impossible or even unlikely that both WI and MN flip opposite ways from 2016 based on what I saw.
I guess it makes sense that MN isn't flipping to Trump then.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I guess it makes sense that MN isn't flipping to Trump then.

MN is more likely to flip to Trump than Trump keeping WI, that's my point. MN will be tighter than most think and Shillary won there by the skin of her teeth (Trump was leading there with 99% precincts in up until the day after).

[Will Hunting]

Tina Smith could be in trouble too, tbh.
:lmao keep telling yourself that Edgelord_Messiah.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao keep telling yourself that Edgelord_Messiah.
I'm dead serious. The challenger is very strong there and MN could flip. MI is one where I think Peters and Biden win but narrowly.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao the retarded knuckledragger running against Tina Smith is in the hospital recovering from life threatening hernia. He won't even be able to campaign from now until the election. Even by MAGAtard standards calling that race up for grabs is stupid.

[baseline bum]

Silver is a smart guy but made his name in sports and then some very obvious political predictions but always hedges his bets

Silver's the one guy who warned all year that Trump had a great chance and that Clinton's blue firewall was extremely fragile while the rest of the media was acting like Trump had to win ~ten coinflips.

[Will Hunting]

I'm dead serious. The challenger is very strong there and MN could flip. MI is one where I think Peters and Biden win but narrowly.
I know you're serious. MAGAtards are usually serious when they say stupid shit.

:lmao the challenger is very strong, you don't even know his name. He's in the hospital recovering from a "severe hernia". What possible basis do you have for saying it's a close race? Some stupid Trafelgagel poll?

[baseline bum]

Biden is going to win Wisconsin by 10+% because of how bad the COVID outbreak is there. Trump holding a superspreader event when Wisconsin hospitals are at full capacity really isn't helping his popularity. The Republican state house probably loses its gerrymandered supermajority too.

I don't buy it. Lots of mail in ballots are going to never be counted since it's already a couple of days too late to do mail-in ballots thanks to Trump's crimes against the post office. I think if Biden wins Wisconsin it's going to be by the skin of his nuts.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I don't buy it. Lots of mail in ballots are going to never be counted since it's already a couple of days too late to do mail-in ballots thanks to Trump's crimes against the post office. I think if Biden wins Wisconsin it's going to be by the skin of his nuts.
I just don't think Trump is popular in WI anymore, driving thru there.

[Will Hunting]

I don't buy it. Lots of mail in ballots are going to never be counted since it's already a couple of days too late to do mail-in ballots thanks to Trump's crimes against the post office. I think if Biden wins Wisconsin it's going to be by the skin of his nuts.
A WaPo/ABC poll released today has Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin, which jumped the 538 average in Wisconsin up to a 9 point lead. The only way Biden loses Wisconsin is if Trump gets courts to stop counting absentee ballots that have already been received, there won't be enough absentee ballots thrown out because they weren't received on time to swing the state.