FiveThirtyEight: 2021 NBA and Player Predictions

[Drom John]

Spurs 35-37
11th in the West
11-13T Pre-lottery slot.

WAR (82 g not 72), Player, 5-yr market value, most comparable, any Spurs in top 10

5.3 White, $104.1M, Delon Wright (2019), #6 Danny Green (2014)
3.8 Aldridge, $34.1M, Dirk Nowitzki (2014), #7 Tim Ducnan (2012), #10 David West (2016)
3.8 Poeltl, $76.4M, Tree Rollins (1981)
3.4 Murray, $75.1M, Gus Williams (1978)
2.6 Mills, $27.4M Steve Kerr (1998)
1.6 Johnson $56.6M, Julian Wright (2008), Kawhi Leonard (2013)
1.4 DeRozan, $17.2M, Richard Hamilton (2010), #7 George Gervin (1984)
1.1 Gay, $11.6M, Tom Chambers (1994)
1.1 Vassel, $77.7M, Zach Lavine (2015), #6 Lonnie Walker (2019)
0.7 Samanic, $45.0M, Donatas Motiejunas ((2012)
0.6 Lyles, $16.7M, Patrick Patterson (2014)
0.6 Zeller, $7.8M, Etan Thomas (2009)
0.4 Reynolds, $12.9M, Alex Albines (2019)
0.4 Jones, $38.8M, Marquis Teague (2013), #5 Cory Joseph (2012)
0.1 Walker, $17.3M, T.J. Warren (2016)
0.1 Weatherspoon, $12.2M, Rafer Alston (2001)
-0.2 Eubanks, $5.6M, Solomon Jones (2008)
-0.2 Bates-Diop, $7.0M, Mark Bryant (1990)

[Mr. Body]

No way is Lyles worth any wins over replacement.

[Dejounte]

There's the problem with these statistics, which is quite common, is that they're missing context. Most of these Spurs players weren't optimally used last season, like Lonnie, making the numbers a bit unreliable.

[itzsoweezee]

There is franchise-changing talent in the top 10 picks of next year's loaded draft. I hope the spurs do at least slightly worse than expected

[RC_Drunkford]

Spurs won’t win over 30 games. I‘d be surprised if they are able to win 30

[Rummpd]

FO stinks, HOF coach won’t play best players, best young talent often injured. Stats don’t lie.

[J_Paco]

There is franchise-changing talent in the top 10 picks of next year's loaded draft. I hope the spurs do at least slightly worse than expected

Ding ding ding

Yeah, either we get everyone healthy, play a faster, more modern style & make the play - in game or bottom out & try to find elite prospect (preferably at PF) that can quickly change our trajectory (like Luka Doncic in Dallas).

We'll see what happens & shit the advanced stats really, really disliked Lonnie last year. Dude needs to step up big time or he might not stay in town past this season. Which would really suck cause I like his potential, raw talent and shooting ability.

[EasyMoney]

You know what. This team should be bad. Play rudy gay ad a starter. Keep playing trey lyles. Tank for kuminga.

[J_Paco]

You know what. This team should be bad. Play rudy gay ad a starter. Keep playing trey lyles. Tank for kuminga.

If Gay remains a starter we are definitely lottery bound.

Never realized that ST hates Trey Lyles too.

He showed improvement on the glass & his shooting got a lot better as the season progressed. If he can regain that consistency as a shooter, score when the opportunities come & be better than Rudy then I'm happy.

[SAGirl]

Well, good to get a reality check? If they suck, they suck. Lottery here we come. Been there last year, and they aren’t going up unless one youngster or two break out.
——-
TY for posting though Drom. I am excited about Johnson comparables, White looking like the one true steal (however if he doesn’t get healthy he might not look or produce as well as projected. Also excited to see Vassell develop. Other than that, meh.

[The Truth #6]

I’m torn. I want to lose with the young guys playing. But the youth will likely outperform the selfish vets, so to get a good (lottery) seed we have to watch another season where you want to bathe your eyes in bleach. If White and Keldon return in good shape I will take whatever the outcome.

[BackHome]

It’s not even close this team is bad and after this year we only have 3 players that could start for an above 500 team - Keldon, Vassell, and White. So if you want to see Spurs back in the saddle you want them to tank and tank hard like Dallas did. They are some Elite talent in this draft just need to drop and pray those ping pong balls do us a solid and hopefully we are in Top 3.

[Prime BEEF]

Cole Anthony and Okeke playing well. Would love a trade with Orlando. DDR/Murray/Walker for Anthony/Okeke/Ross/Gordon