CDC preliminary 2020 US mortality figures: ~400,000 more deaths than 2019

[Winehole23]

US life expectancy is expected to drop 2-3 years.

Care to revise your honest brokering of the conversation about 2020 excess mortality, DMC?



This year is on track to be the deadliest in U.S. history with a total of more than 3 million deaths expected by the end of December, due in large part to the coronavirus pandemic, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/covid-19.htm#understanding-death-data-quality).

The Associated Press (https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-new-york-coronavirus-pandemic-united-states-e2bc856b6ec45563b84ee2e87ae8d5e7?utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter) reported Tuesday that preliminary numbers suggest the U.S. will have at least 3.2 million deaths by the end of 2020, about 400,000 more than in 2019.

The U.S. has recorded more than 319,000 coronavirus-related deaths as of Tuesday, with more than 18 million total infections, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).

While the AP noted that deaths normally rise by about 20,000 to 50,000 each year due to aging and a continuously growing population, the 15 percent increase in deaths from 2019 is the largest single-year increase since 1918, when hundreds of thousands of U.S. soldiers and Americans died from a flu pandemic.

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/531270-2020-on-track-to-be-deadliest-year-in-us-history

[Winehole23]

Earlier this month, COVID-19 surpassed heart disease as the leading killer (https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-heart-disease-leading-killer-20201206-nfuejkbc7rg6fhzhqnmtlycxem-story.html) in the U.S. And a report last week in the Journal of the American Medical Association concluded that coronavirus likely has killed more people (https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-regains-title-of-leading-cause-of-death-according-to-study-20201217-ux5tpw3gozdmhk5mqtdne6meju-story.html) in the U.S. than heart disease, cancer, chronic lower-respiratory disease, transportation accidents or suicide since Nov. 1.https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-3-million-dead-2020-coronavirus-pandemic-added-to-total-20201222-e2zrooorbjbxxnnl7ybtbgtuwy-story.html

[tholdren]

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-3-million-dead-2020-coronavirus-pandemic-added-to-total-20201222-e2zrooorbjbxxnnl7ybtbgtuwy-story.html

Absolutely false

[ChumpDumper]

Absolutely falseIt's true.

[tholdren]

Absolutely false
Show the dataset. Covid only. No comorbidities

[ChumpDumper]

Show the dataset. Covid only. No comorbidities:lmao your foldpost

[tholdren]

Show the dataset. Covid only. No comorbidities

So you don't have data... just gossip. Lame

[ChumpDumper]

So you don't have data... just gossip. LameSure I have data. You have foldpost.

[tholdren]

So you don't have data... just gossip. Lame

Provide the link


Or you fold

[ChumpDumper]

Provide the link


Or you fold:lol you never provided a link ever

Why demand one now?

[pgardn]

Provide the link


Or you fold

Deaths in 2020 will differ in a statistically significantly manner from deaths in 2019.

why?

The % will exceed 15, the most since 1918. What happened (was happening) in 1918?
Well war I AND a virus. So what’s up?

[Winehole23]

lol links to data are embedded in the OP

[ChumpDumper]

lol links to data are embedded in the OP

He'll just move his foldpost to motorcycle brisket deaths.

[Winehole23]

Excess deaths, comparative, rendered by the Financial Times's data guru

1341499716610240512

[RandomGuy]

Absolutely false

Stupid motherfucker.

Comorbidities are already there in the normal data.

Death rates don't vary from year to year.

it's all Covid, you stupid, selfish cunt.

[DMC]

Stupid motherfucker.

Comorbidities are already there in the normal data.

Death rates don't vary from year to year.

it's all Covid, you stupid, selfish cunt.

https://i.imgur.com/csuVmu7.png

:lmao

[RandomGuy]

[I don't understand the difference between one year and 70]

:lmao

:rollin

70 =/= 1

[DMC]

:rollin

70 =/= 1

Death rates don't vary from year to year.

year-to-year
Pronunciation /ˌjɪətʊˈjɪə/ /ˌjəːtʊˈjəː/
See synonyms for year-to-year
ADJECTIVE
Relevant or relating to successive years; especially determined by comparing results or figures from successive years.

suc·ces·sive
/səkˈsesiv/
Learn to pronounce
adjective
following one another or following others.

[DMC]

Death rates always vary by season and year. The issue is significant with coronavirus because it disproportionately affects older people and those with existing medical conditions such as heart disease. People with coronavirus and so-called comorbidities might have died soon anyway.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortality-rates-tell-true-tale-of-coronaviruss-effect-11587558540

:lmao

[DMC]

Death rates—and thus the relative ranking of countries in relation to others—do vary from year to year.

https://sites.nationalacademies.org/dbasse/cpop/dbasse_080393#deaths-from-all-causes

:lmao

RG, ST's own Cliff Claven.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol as long as DMC doesn't have to talk about the actual deaths.

[ElNono]

- Makes sense that death rates vary year to year. It would be surprising and illogical if they did not. Much like a bad flu year, a COVID-19 year should spike death rates for certain comorbid illnesses. IIRC, the numbers do bear that out.
- Excess deaths are likely a better indicator, preferably longer than a year over year comparison.
- Even if anybody argues that people ‘might’ have died soon due to a given comorbidity, the fact that they have died removes any speculation about the deadly influence of COVID-19.

Now please carry on with the bickering...

[baseline bum]

Being American should be considered a comorbidity given our broken federal government and broken healthcare system.

[DMC]

Do people know what rates are? It's nothing tangible. 400k deaths over the previous years is actual dead people. That is wholly attributed to COVID. Anyone saying otherwise is a fucking moron. :lol

Not true according to the death certificates.

[DMC]

As boomers begin to die off, even the CDC has predicted a pretty sharp increase in the death rate through 2035. You cannot simply consider the death rate as a flat, unchanging figure and then add deaths to it and associate all of those above the previous mark as unreported COVID deaths. Well you can, some here have, but many of you are clueless.
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2017/10/aging-boomers-deaths.html

[ChumpDumper]

:lol DMC trying to make excuses for his Trump's miserable failure.

ThEy WUz gOINg 2 dIE nyWayZ!

[DMC]

Directly or indirectly but still attributed to covid. Whether it's the Healthcare system swamped or people scared to get checked up or the actual covid itself. All by not being able to get covid under control to begin with. This fucking administration has been pushing for herd immunity from the get go and what you see is the results you fucking moron. :lmao

So you moved the goalpost. Get your shit together before you make another RG level post.

[DMC]

I never said Covid deaths you fucking moron. :lmao

If it's wholly attributed to COVID, there were no other underlying causes for death.

[pgardn]

This disease has been a disaster for our country because people get very sick and sometimes die. This many extra deaths worldwide and people seeking medical aid worldwide is most likely not a statistical anomaly.

but you think it is. statistically you are trying to roll with the losing hand.

[Winehole23]

As boomers begin to die off, even the CDC has predicted a pretty sharp increase in the death rate through 2035. When was the last time the US saw such a large spike in deaths, year over year?

[DMC]

When was the last time the US saw such a large spike in deaths, year over year?

Speak to your boy RG about varying death rates. I don't care to chase your red herring.

[DMC]

The guy is an idiot.:lmao


But but but meh retes. :lmao

dabom 2.0

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao only DMC could try to call the topic of the thread a red herring.

[Winehole23]

Speak to your boy RG about varying death rates. I don't care to chase your red herring.1918-1919, in case you were wondering.

[Winehole23]

COVID mortality is undercounted

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/counting-excess-deaths-500000-people-have-died-from-covid

[hater]

COVID mortality is undercounted

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/counting-excess-deaths-500000-people-have-died-from-covid

You forget its likely that many ppl died of other maladies due to being afraid to go to dr or hospital. Or waiting until too late. Also im sure suicides were up

I agree most of these deaths are due to pandemic but not strictly due to covid disease

[SnakeBoy]

Being American should be considered a comorbidity given our broken federal government and broken healthcare system.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eq2ZQvfUUAAJ-kd?format=jpg&name=small

[baseline bum]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eq2ZQvfUUAAJ-kd?format=jpg&name=small

Love them sine curve thighs.

[Will Hunting]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eq2ZQvfUUAAJ-kd?format=jpg&name=small
The fact our federal government classifies pizza as a vegetable (thanks Elena Klobuchar for that one) is related to this^ tbh

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Et-MjbIVgAAIpEP?format=jpg&name=large

[RandomGuy]

As boomers begin to die off, even the CDC has predicted a pretty sharp increase in the death rate through 2035. You cannot simply consider the death rate as a flat, unchanging figure and then add deaths to it and associate all of those above the previous mark as unreported COVID deaths. Well you can, some here have, but many of you are clueless.
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2017/10/aging-boomers-deaths.html

That's just it. The assumption was that the death rate for 2020 was going to rise anyway. An increase in mortality was already factored in.

(edit)

https://knoema.com/atlas/United-States-of-America/Death-rate

We were due for about a 1.19% rise in the death rate before all this happened. Death rates are pretty stable, year to year, pandemics aside.

[DMC]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Et-MjbIVgAAIpEP?format=jpg&name=large

There's a difference in how the reporting schemes are working between non-novel diseases and COVID-19. Many states have openly stated they are reporting these cases if the person tested positive for COVID-19 . Dying with something and dying from something are two different things.

[RandomGuy]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Et-MjbIVgAAIpEP?format=jpg&name=large

3309321-358330=2950991

2950991/2876947= 1.0257

2.57% increase more than twice what was predicted. Odds are pretty good that a fair part of that increase was due to unconfirmed/diagnosed COVID 19.

Especially given that flu itself has been almost non-existent this year.




In the third week of 2021, clinical laboratories nationwide tested 23,549 specimens for influenza. Of those, just 0.3 percent (65 tests) turned up positive — a number that is, to put it mildly, absolutely wild.

“Normally, this time of year, we’d be running 20 to 30 percent positive,” said Lynnette Brammer, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Domestic Influenza Surveillance team.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-covid-19-ended-flu-season-before-it-started/

[RandomGuy]

There's a difference in how the reporting schemes are working between non-novel diseases and COVID-19. Many states have openly stated they are reporting these cases if the person tested positive for COVID-19 . Dying with something and dying from something are two different things.

Many states, like Texas, have been underreporting by only counting absolutely 100% confirmed cases in their numbers, and not trying to estimate an unconfirmed number. Also means that the COVID number, if not accounting for that factor, are almost certainly underreported for that reason.

Makes it harder to do state-by-state comparisons.

[Adam Lambert]

There's a difference in how the reporting schemes are working between non-novel diseases and COVID-19. Many states have openly stated they are reporting these cases if the person tested positive for COVID-19 . Dying with something and dying from something are two different things.

This is just another tired talking point by conservatives to downplay the disease.

The raw difference in deaths, regardless of cause, is +433 thousand. In previous years, the increase ranged between +4K and +63K per year. Pretty simple math.

Regardless of whether you believe the actual "COVID death count" is accurate, it's plainly obvious that COVID resulted in historically high death toll. Unless you just don't believe the total deaths number.

[RandomGuy]

COVID mortality is undercounted

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/counting-excess-deaths-500000-people-have-died-from-covid

500k sounds about right. only about a 33% undercount or so at the moment. Be interested to see what the peer-reivewed papers will come up with.

[RandomGuy]

This is just another tired talking point by conservatives to downplay the disease.

The raw difference in deaths, regardless of cause, is +433 thousand. In previous years, the increase ranged between +4K and +63K per year. Pretty simple math.

Regardless of whether you believe the actual "COVID death count" is accurate, it's plainly obvious that COVID resulted in historically high death toll. Unless you just don't believe the total deaths number.

Total deaths is one of THE most accurate numbers we have for any health statistic.

It is amusing to watch "conservatives" (not sure what the fuck they are conserving these days) squirm when you point this out.

"if it isn't COVID, then present a plausible alternative"

They invariably puss out. Or like Snakeboy tell you "I saw an error in your calculation, but because I don't like you won't tell you what it is" (i.e. the "girlfriend in Canada")

It would be funny but these assclowns vote.

[Winehole23]

2020 US life expectancy dropped by a full year, about twice that for non-white Hispanic folks and 2.7 years for black folk.

US life expectancy has fallen four of the last five years.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/02/18/health/life-expectancy-fell-pandemic/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/02/18/health/life-expectancy-fell-pandemic/index.html?__twitter_impression=true)

[Winehole23]

good comparative info with other causes of death

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-01/covid-19-s-death-toll-compared-to-other-things-that-kill-us

[RandomGuy]

good comparative info with other causes of death

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-01/covid-19-s-death-toll-compared-to-other-things-that-kill-us

This thing will kill more people than a decades long AIDS epidemic before the end of this year. wow.

[Winehole23]

The last time an annual US death count was above 1% of the population was 1947.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwE0cwNXAAQEiyK?format=jpg&name=medium

[Winehole23]

age adjusted graph through 2018 here:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/mortality-trends/index.htm

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ez1IF7yXEAQwwQM?format=jpg&name=large

[Winehole23]

This thing will kill more people than a decades long AIDS epidemic before the end of this year. wow.important qualifier: in the USA.

3M+ have died of COVID so far

"32.7 million [24.8 million–42.2 million] people have died [worldwide] from AIDS-related illnesses since the start of the pandemic" (by the end of 2019)

[RandomGuy]

important qualifier: in the USA.

3M+ have died of COVID so far in the [world as a whole].

"32.7 million [24.8 million–42.2 million] people have died [worldwide] from AIDS-related illnesses since the start of the pandemic" (by the end of 2019)

[RG edit]

[DarrinS]

important qualifier: in the USA.

3M+ have died of COVID so far in the US.

"32.7 million [24.8 million–42.2 million] people have died [worldwide] from AIDS-related illnesses since the start of the pandemic" (by the end of 2019)


???

[Winehole23]

???meant world wide

fixed

[Winehole23]

US population grew by .35% in 2020


https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Figure1.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1

[Winehole23]

Excess deaths up in 2021

1481674712417595397

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIcvMNBXEAUA8NN?format=jpg&name=medium

[SnakeBoy]

Excess deaths up in 2021

1481674712417595397

Your boy Biden has been doing work

[hater]

Your boy Biden has been doing work

Shutting down the virus.

[RandomGuy]

Your boy Biden has been doing work

2/10 weak effort, points too closely to your butthurt over Trump being so incompetent

":cry why are the politicians for the party I support so incompetent :cry :cry :cry"

I'm sorry this is happening to you.

How does it feel to know that your political section is incapable of producing competent people? That must suck.

[Thread]

Death count: 9.24.21...705,293.
Death count: 1.18.22...874,321.

169,028 twixt the dates, RG. Over 1400 Americans a day dead from the COVID.

& we're still counting, daddy.

[Ef-man]

Death count: 9.24.21...705,293.
Death count: 1.18.22...874,321.

169,028 twixt the dates, RG. Over 1400 Americans a day dead from the COVID.

& we're still counting, daddy.

Eh, like "0-forever" you will welsh, not like you were ever a man of your word.

:cry I was here every day :cry

[Thread]

Eh, like "0-forever" you will welsh, not like you were ever a man of your word.

:cry I was here every day :cry

Mudslime!!! Stipulate!!!

[Winehole23]

2/10 weak effort, points too closely to your butthurt over Trump being so incompetent

":cry why are the politicians for the party I support so incompetent :cry :cry :cry"

I'm sorry this is happening to you.

How does it feel to know that your political section is incapable of producing competent people? That must suck.Biden has been dogshit, tbh. Bet entirely on vaccines, did not deliver on campaign promises related to testing, tracing and workplace protection. Told people to throw their masks away last April, suggested the need for social distancing would end by July 4th. Pushed schoolkids into the sacrifice zone too, all for the political narrative that we're returning to normal.

The people who point out that ordinary folks got more help under the orange fascist aren't wrong.

Where's Biden's Warp Speed program? The end of the pandemic might be hastened by expediting new vaccines and treatments, a lot of lives would be saved too.

Sadly, Biden isn't about that. Negging the unvaxxed to cover his failures (and the preexisting weaknesses of the system) has been his main deal, as if personal choice were the only solution to deteriorating hospitals and public health.

[Thread]

Biden has been dogshit, tbh. Bet entirely on vaccines, did not deliver on campaign promises related to testing, tracing and workplace protection. Told people to throw their masks away last April, suggested the need for social distancing would end by July 4th. Pushed schoolkids into the sacrifice zone too, all for the political narrative that we're returning to normal.

The people who point out that ordinary folks got more help under the orange fascist aren't wrong.

Where's Biden's Warp Speed program? The end of the pandemic might be hastened by expediting new vaccines and treatments, a lot of lives would be saved too.

Sadly, Biden isn't about that. Negging the unvaxxed to cover his failures (and the preexisting weaknesses of the system) has been his main deal, as if personal choice were the only solution to deteriorating hospitals and public health.

Winester, hat-in-hand standing before us with tail firmly tucked.

Bout time.

Biden was too busy falling all over himself race hustling from coast-to-coast.

[SnakeBoy]

2/10 weak effort, points too closely to your butthurt over Trump being so incompetent

":cry why are the politicians for the party I support so incompetent :cry :cry :cry"

I'm sorry this is happening to you.

How does it feel to know that your political section is incapable of producing competent people? That must suck.

lol don't lash out because your boy is failing

Ol Joe is letting er rip. Thinks he can get all this behind him before midterms. He's got another thing comin'.

[DMC]

2/10 weak effort, points too closely to your butthurt over Trump being so incompetent

":cry why are the politicians for the party I support so incompetent :cry :cry :cry"

I'm sorry this is happening to you.

How does it feel to know that your political section is incapable of producing competent people? That must suck.
Biden has been in office for a year. I'd say it's time he gets some credit for the state of the union. I know that hurts your twat but you'll get over it.

[RandomGuy]

Biden has been in office for a year. I'd say it's time he gets some credit for the state of the union. I know that hurts your twat but you'll get over it.

Trump fucked off the response. Biden has done just about everything feasible with anti-masker/vaxxers fighting every single step of the way. At least it is killing them off. I know that hurts your twat, but you'll get over it.

[Thread]

Trump fucked off the response. Biden has done just about everything feasible with anti-masker/vaxxers fighting every single step of the way. At least it is killing them off. I know that hurts your twat, but you'll get over it.

Boiled down:::

Trump: 400,000 Americans dead of the COVID.
Biden: 475,000 Americans dead of the COVID.

25,000 more Americans dead of the COVID & Joe will be::: "1/2 MILLION Joe."

[DMC]

Trump blah blah blah blah Biden great Trump blah blah blah

Count the bodies. nuff said.

[Winehole23]

Count the bodies. nuff said.You've changed your tune, you used to get very grumpy about counting the bodies anytime before 2021, just check upstream in this thread.

What changed?

[DMC]

You've changed your tune, you used to get very grumpy about counting the bodies anytime before 2021, just check upstream in this thread.

What changed?

Your side

[DMC]

There's a difference in how the reporting schemes are working between non-novel diseases and COVID-19. Many states have openly stated they are reporting these cases if the person tested positive for COVID-19 . Dying with something and dying from something are two different things.

This is what I said around this time last year. Just lately Fauci has commented that the counting method has changed. Odd eh?

[Winehole23]

Your sideI'm singing the same tune, I didn't change.

[ChumpDumper]

Texas just stopped counting active cases.

Odd eh?

[Winehole23]

This is what I said around this time last year. Just lately Fauci has commented that the counting method has changed. Odd eh?Not at all, Fauci blows with the political wind, just like you.

[Winehole23]

1503339392429133824

[Thread]

1503339392429133824


I'll boil this down for ya, Winester...

President Trump: 400k dead of the COVIDPERIOD
MF Biden: 600k dead of the COVID.

& counting, son. No end in sight.

[Winehole23]

WHO study estimates excess global deaths in 2020-1 at ~16 million, far above the ~6 million officially recorded COVID deaths.

Pretty much any way you slice it, the US has fared worse than comparable countries.



The US is approaching one million Covid deaths - the highest total officially recorded anywhere in the world.


But a new report from the World Health Organization (WHO) shows several other countries recorded more deaths above their normal levels than the US over the last two years.


So does the US really have the highest Covid death toll, and by what measure?


US deaths above global average


There's no international standard for measuring deaths or their causes, and countries record deaths in different ways, which makes comparison difficult.


But experts say one of the most accurate measures is how many extra deaths are recorded in a country above the number that would have been expected to die in an average year.


Many countries publish excess death data, but some poorer nations don't or do it far less frequently.



The WHO has published a report (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61327778) calculating every country's excess death count for 2020 and 2021.


This measure takes into account deaths not directly due to Covid, but as a consequence of the pandemic, such as people being unable to access hospitals for the care they needed.


It also accounts for poor record-keeping in some regions.


https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/17AF5/production/_124431079_596f6bc8-626a-48b6-845f-772eefb60454-1.png

The report concludes that, although the US was not the worst hit country in the world by this measure, it remained in the top five in terms of overall numbers of deaths.


According to the WHO, in 2020 and 2021 the US recorded more than 930,000 excess deaths, behind India (4.7m), Russia (1.1m) and Indonesia (1m).


The WHO's numbers are largely consistent with statistics from the Economist (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) which run into 2022, as well as other excess death studies (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext).



When adjusted for population size, the US slips down the rankings with 140 excess deaths per 100,000 people. But it remains a long way above the global average of 96 per 100,000 - and it's also one of the worst performing among the most developed nations.


https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/2048/cpsprodpb/2849/production/_124431301_excess_per_100k_who_us_focus-nc.png

Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist who worked on the WHO report, says: "The US has about a 15% undercount using excess deaths compared to official Covid deaths - that's mostly a result of some of the early problems that occurred with nursing home deaths being missed."


"On the whole the US isn't missing many deaths compared with, say, India," he adds.




WHO: India's Covid-19 toll highest in the world (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-60981318)




What about the official Covid death numbers?


The US has recorded the most deaths from coronavirus in the world - over 300,000 more than the next closest country, Brazil.


https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/104EF/production/_124499766_f92cbab9-d478-4363-807e-9a6ffaeb68b7-2.png

But the US has a larger population than many other countries.


When you look at the same top 10 countries in per capita terms, the US is below both Brazil and Peru for recorded Covid deaths.



https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/B6CF/production/_124499764_1b5a23a7-382b-4e8d-824f-7667e4fd2d76-2.png

Overall the US ranks 18th in the world in recorded Covid deaths per capita, according to Johns Hopkins University data (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality).


"Short term I think the per capita confirmed death rate is a pretty good indicator" says Justin Lessler, professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina.


"The US is not the highest, but it's certainly on the higher end."


Experts say it's also important to take the average age of a country's population into account.


"We should compare with countries which have similar age structures as we know Covid has a higher fatality rate in the elderly - so we should compare apples to apples," says Bhramar Mukherjee, professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan.


When comparing with Spain, UK, and France, as well as neighbouring Canada - developed countries with similarly aged populations to the US - the US has performed worse.


https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/11D27/production/_124599927_c3e2c991-875d-4d8c-9173-f839a1821d49-2.png

"A lot of the European countries - like the UK, France and Spain - are reasonable to compare, and they've had lower per capita death rates. It's not night and day, but the US is on the upper end of that spectrum," says Professor Lessler.


https://www.bbc.com/news/61333847

[Winehole23]

WHO study estimates excess global deaths in 2020-1 at ~16 million, far above the ~6 million officially recorded COVID deaths.

Pretty much any way you slice it, the US has fared worse than comparable countries.


https://www.bbc.com/news/61333847and apparently has for some time, quite apart from COVID


Jacob Bor has been thinking about a parallel universe. He envisions a world in which America has health on par with that of other wealthy nations, and is not an embarrassing outlier that, despite spending more on health care than any other country, has shorter life spans, higher rates of chronic disease and maternal mortality, and fewer doctors per capita than its peers. Bor, an epidemiologist at Boston University School of Public Health, imagines the people who are still alive in that other world but who died in ours. He calls such people “missing Americans.” And he calculates that in 2021 alone, there were 1.1 million of them.


Bor and his colleagues arrived at that number (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.29.22277065v2) by using data from an international mortality database (https://www.mortality.org/) and the CDC. For every year from 1933 to 2021, they compared America’s mortality rates with the average of Canada, Japan, and 16 Western European nations (adjusting for age and population). They showed that from the 1980s onward, the U.S. started falling behind its peers. By 2019, the number of missing Americans had grown to 626,000. After COVID arrived, that statistic ballooned even further—to 992,000 in 2020, and to 1.1 million in 2021. Were the U.S. “just average compared to other wealthy countries, not even the best performer, fully a third of all deaths last year would have been prevented,” Bor told me. That includes half of all deaths among working-age adults. “Think of two people you might know under 65 who died last year: One of them might still be alive,” he said. “It raises the hairs on the back of my neck.”



https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/o1eLfWklOS5DQUMw9oqoY5Odoa8=/0x0:2771x1957/655x463/media/img/posts/2022/07/0722_AmericanDeath_Americans1/original.png

These counterfactuals puncture two common myths about America’s pandemic experience: that the U.S. was just one unremarkable victim of a crisis that spared no nation and that COVID disrupted a status quo that was strong and worth restoring wholesale. In fact, as one expert predicted in March 2020 (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/), the U.S. had the worst outbreak in the industrialized world—not just because of what the Trump and Biden administrations did, but also because of the country’s rotten rootstock. COVID simply did more of what life in America has excelled at for decades: killing Americans in unusually large numbers, and at unusually young ages. “I don’t think people in the United States actually have any awareness of just how poorly we do as a country at letting people live to old age,” Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, a sociologist at the University of Minnesota, told me.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/07/us-life-span-mortality-rates/670591/

[Winehole23]

Several studies, for example, have shown that America’s life expectancy has tailed behind other comparable countries since the 1970s. By 2010, that gap was already 1.9 years. By the end of 2021, it had grown to 5.3 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.04.05.22273393v1). And although many countries took a longevity hit because of COVID, America was once again exceptional: Among its peers, it experienced the largest life-expectancy decline in 2020 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2022/02/24/2022.02.23.22271380.full.pdf) and, unlike its peers (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2022/04/07/2022.04.05.22273393.full.pdf), continued declining in 2021. But Bor says that people often misinterpret life-expectancy declines, as if they simply represent a few years shaved off the end of a life. Someone might reasonably ask: What’s the big deal if I die at 76 versus 78? But in fact, life expectancy is falling behind other wealthy nations in large part because a lot of Americans are dying very young—in their 40s and 50s, rather than their 70s and 80s. The country is experiencing what Bor and his colleagues call “a crisis of early death”—a long-simmering tragedy that COVID took to a furious boil.

[Winehole23]

In every country, the coronavirus wrought greater damage upon the bodies of the elderly than the young. But this well-known trend hides a less obvious one: During the pandemic, half of the U.S.’s excess deaths—the missing Americans—were under 65 years old. Even though working-age Americans were less likely to die of COVID than older Americans, they fared considerably worse than similarly aged people in other countries. From 2019 to 2021, the number of working-age Americans who died increased by 233,000—and nine in 10 of those deaths wouldn’t have happened if the U.S. had mortality rates on par with its peers.

https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/pwN0Gi9d3BBm82jPXiredvTT0RQ=/0x0:2772x1964/655x464/media/img/posts/2022/07/0722_AmericanDeath_Americans2/original.png

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYlbCIDXEAEF0tq?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

US life expectancy declined again in 2021


Americans born in 2021 can expect to live for just 76.1 years — the lowest life expectancy has been since 1996, according to a new government analysis (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf) published Wednesday. This is the biggest two-year decline — 2.7 years in total — in almost 100 years.

The Covid-19 pandemic is the primary cause of the decline. However, increases in the number of people dying from overdoses and accidents is also a significant factor.

American Indian and Alaskan Native people have experienced a particularly precipitous drop in life expectancy since 2019, going from 71.8 to 65.2 years. This kind of loss is similar to the plunge seen for all Americans after the Spanish Flu, said Robert Anderson, the chief of the mortality statistics branch of the National Center for Health Statistics, a division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“It’s a ridiculous decline,” Anderson said. “When I saw a 6.6 year decline over two years, my jaw dropped. … I made my staff re-run the numbers to make sure.”
https://www.statnews.com/2022/08/31/u-s-life-expectancy-drops-sharply-the-second-consecutive-decline/

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbfY1wQVQAU1t7s?format=jpg&name=medium

[DMC]

What's the take away, or are you just tweet dropping for shits and giggles?

[Winehole23]

What's the take away, or are you just tweet dropping for shits and giggles?it's newsworthy, Marcus Aurelius. COVID put a walloping on us.

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao DMC admits he can't interpret the chart.

[Winehole23]

"it's just a cold"

1582723825627648002

[boutons_deux]

Trash and his mafiya, right wing hate media, misled, for political points, 100Ks of Americans to sickness and death

nobody held responsible.

[Winehole23]

"excess excess mortality"

The strong correlation of excess deaths with waves of infection suggest that deaths are significantly undercounted.


Recent data can be noisy, as the C.D.C. slowly processes death certificates. But almost every week for more than six months, the agency has calculated that total excess mortality was 50 percent larger, and often almost twice as large, as the number of official Covid-19 deaths, which we tend to regard as the central public health anomaly of the age.

And though the pattern has continued for three years, there isn’t medical or scientific consensus about what is driving it. Instead, perhaps several hundred thousand “unexpected” deaths have been explained only by loose conjecture. “We’ve got to figure this out,” the University of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm told me. “And in order to do that, you’ve got to have that discussion: Wait a minute, this is bigger than people think.”



Faust’s own analysis suggests that the excess excess is larger during periods of low testing and smaller during periods of high testing. “I suspect, in the fullness of time,” he said, “we’re going to figure out that of these 200,000 to 300,000 excess deaths, that 80 to 90 percent of them were just Covid.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/opinion/covid-pandemic-deaths.html?smid=tw-share

[Winehole23]

unsurprisingly, maternal deaths spiked in 2021


In 2021, the U.S. had one of the worst rates of maternal mortality in the country's history, according to a new report (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/maternal-mortality/2021/maternal-mortality-rates-2021.htm) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The report found that 1,205 people died of maternal causes in the U.S. in 2021. That represents a 40% increase from the previous year.

These are deaths that take place during pregnancy or within 42 days following delivery, according to the World Health Organization (https://icd.who.int/browse11/l-m/en#/http%3a%2f%2fid.who.int%2ficd%2fentity%2f115168996 0).

The U.S. rate for 2021 was 32.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, which is more than ten times the estimated rates of some other high income countries (https://www.oecd.org/health/health-data.htm), including Australia, Austria, Israel, Japan and Spain which all hovered between 2 and 3 deaths per 100,000 in 2020.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/03/16/1163786037/maternal-deaths-in-the-u-s-spiked-in-2021-cdc-reports

[Winehole23]

It's not just the bad living, living in the USA is bad for you, unless you're over 75.


Just before Christmas, federal health officials confirmed life expectancy in America had dropped (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/12/22/1144864971/american-life-expectancy-is-now-at-its-lowest-in-nearly-two-decades) for a nearly unprecedented second year in a row – down to 76 years. While countries all over the world saw life expectancy rebound during the second year of the pandemic after the arrival of vaccines, the U.S. did not (https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-life-expectancy-compare-countries/#Life%20expectancy%20in%20years%20at%20given%20age ,%202021).

Then, last week, more bad news: Maternal mortality in the U.S. reached a high in 2021 (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/03/16/1163786037/maternal-deaths-in-the-u-s-spiked-in-2021-cdc-reports). Also, a paper (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2802602) in the Journal of the American Medical Association found rising mortality rates among U.S. children and adolescents.

"This is the first time in my career that I've ever seen [an increase in pediatric mortality] – it's always been declining in the United States for as long as I can remember," says the JAMA paper's lead author Steven Woolf (https://familymedicine.vcu.edu/about/directories/steven-woolf-md-mph.html), director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University. "Now, it's increasing at a magnitude that has not occurred at least for half a century."

Across the lifespan, and across every demographic group, Americans die at younger ages than their counterparts in other wealthy nations.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/03/25/1164819944/live-free-and-die-the-sad-state-of-u-s-life-expectancy

[Winehole23]

"American children are less likely to live to age 5 than children in other high-income countries," the authors write on the second page. It goes on: "Even Americans with healthy behaviors, for example, those who are not obese or do not smoke, appear to have higher disease rates than their peers in other countries."


The researchers catalog what they call the "U.S. health disadvantage" – the fact that living in America is worse for your health and makes you more likely to die younger than if you lived in another rich country like the U.K., Switzerland or Japan.

"We went into this with an open mind as to why it is that the U.S. had a shorter life expectancy than people in other countries," says Woolf, who chaired the committee that produced the report. After looking across different age and racial and economic and geographic groups, he says, "what we found was that this problem existed in almost every category we looked at."

[Winehole23]

wow, if accurate

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsok3QdWYAIt4sS?format=jpg&name=small

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwVL8M8XgAAUoOQ?format=png&name=small

[Winehole23]

How many times has the pandemic ended (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/briefing/covid.html) now?


I’ve lost count.


The pandemic officially “ended” back in May, but the virus just won’t cooperate with the affluent decider class. As I wrote the other day (https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://jessicawildfire.substack.com/p/the-pandemic-really-is-over-no-seriously), the media is trying to celebrate a new “milestone” by selling a fake drop in excess deaths. That part isn’t surprising. They’ve been trying to end the pandemic for years.


Here’s the strange part: I would’ve thought the CDC would at least quietly announce somewhere they were changing their baseline for calculating excess deaths. They wouldn’t just keep it a secret.


Would they?


Well, anyone who’s popping champagne over a “drop” in excess deaths isn’t looking at the real numbers. I ran my own stats using CDC data. It shows that our health agencies have definitely been moving the goalpost.


Even The Economist raised an eyebrow.


Here’s what they said (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/05/23/our-model-suggests-that-global-deaths-remain-5-above-pre-covid-forecasts):




Our central estimate for the world’s current total mortality rate exceeds projections from 2019 by 5%, or 3m lives per year.


They describe Covid as killing at a “slower, steadier pace than in 2020-21.” We flattened the curve, but not exactly how we expected. Misguided and misinformed by everyone with a microphone, the public wound up creating a virus that spreads freely all year long, with micro-surges every season.


Then you have the OECD’s numbers (https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=104676#):

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:s teep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf45eb f-8177-4937-8a27-fa116f8271c3_640x690.jpeg
(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf45eb f-8177-4937-8a27-fa116f8271c3_640x690.jpeg)




(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3bf45eb f-8177-4937-8a27-fa116f8271c3_640x690.jpeg)
It looks to me like we’re still running with an excess mortality rate anywhere from 6 to 14 percent, depending on the week. Even during the spring, we were hitting close to 9 percent. That’s not what I would call “over.”


Here’s what else I did:


After my previous post, someone pointed me in the right direction for the CDC’s monthly mortality counts (https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Monthly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Select-Causes-2014-201/bxq8-mugm) for 2014-2019. With that, I could dig into the numbers. Some Covid minimizing troll said I should factor in population growth, so I did. Hey, why not? I calculated my own mortality rates by dividing total deaths Jan-May by the population for each individual year. Then I averaged the rates from 2014-2019 to get a pre-pandemic baseline (shown below).


Here it is:

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:s teep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dc170f 2-6cd4-4f9f-ac8d-c3a6d01467ad_1078x670.png
(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dc170f 2-6cd4-4f9f-ac8d-c3a6d01467ad_1078x670.png)




(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dc170f 2-6cd4-4f9f-ac8d-c3a6d01467ad_1078x670.png)My own excess mortality rate.

Magically, my own spreadsheet math corresponds with The Economist and The OECD. We’re looking at an excess mortality rate that’s still considerably higher than anything we saw before the pandemic started. Remember, this chart takes population growth into account. It shows 5.5 percent excess deaths.


At least the excess death rate is moving in the right direction.


It’s still not anywhere close to “normal.”
https://jessicawildfire.substack.com

[Winehole23]

During the pandemic, half of the U.S.’s excess deaths—the missing Americans—were under 65 years old. Even though working-age Americans were less likely to die of COVID than older Americans, they fared considerably worse than similarly aged people in other countries. From 2019 to 2021, the number of working-age Americans who died increased by 233,000—and nine in 10 of those deaths wouldn’t have happened if the U.S. had mortality rates on par with its peers.


https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/pwN0Gi9d3BBm82jPXiredvTT0RQ=/0x0:2772x1964/655x464/media/img/posts/2022/07/0722_AmericanDeath_Americans2/original.png

1696175218622943384

[Thread]

1696175218622943384

Not when you're carrying the Nazi's in Ukraine hand-to-mouth for over a year now & counting, + the zipperheads in both South & North Korea since '50, and the slopes in Taiwan,,,&&&&&&&&&...

You get the idea, blankethead.

[Winehole23]

You know it's serious when insurance companies get jittery.


A coalition of insurance industry and healthcare leaders have formed a non-profit organization to help global insurers screen, test, and triage members to combat the baffling rise in excess mortality.

Members of the group, called The Insurance Collaboration to Save Lives, say they were increasingly concerned about excess mortality and morbidity trends that even three years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, have not returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Excess mortality, defined as more deaths than normally expected, rose during the pandemic with estimates of 16.8 to 28.1 million worldwide excess deaths from all causes. But as COVID-19-related deaths decreased through 2022, excess mortality continued to persist in many countries.





Statistics show the mortality gap increased the number of U.S. deaths by 34.8% in 2021, resulting in 892,491 excess deaths that year. When controlling for population size, the annual number of excess deaths is up 84.9% between 2019 and 2021. In other words, the number of excess deaths each year almost doubled, according to the California Center for Population Research at UCLA.

With excess morbidity comes excess losses for insurers that could be significantly quelled with digital screening and triage of policyholders.

Josh Stirling, a former equity analyst and co-founder of the Collaboration, estimates proactive screening and testing could bring insurers a 50x to 100x return from the mortality savings. More important, though he said, the health screening, targeted blood testing, and intelligent use of data would save lives.
https://insurancenewsnet.com/innarticle/insurance-industry-coalition-forms-non-profit-to-study-excess-mortality

[Winehole23]

Stirling believes there is a small window of opportunity for insurers to get ahead of the excess mortality problem before it becomes a major financial problem for the insurance industry. The Collaboration is seeking support and working capital to eventually roll out the screening processes nationwide, and then worldwide.

Assuming $200,000 average life policies and a $200 cost of screening, the savings will cover the costs if as few as 0.1%, or 1 in 1,000, lives are saved.

[Winehole23]

Things tend to remain the same until big business's bottom line is threatened. Just so soon as that happens, things can change quickly, as we all saw in 2020-2021.


“Even after COVID started to wane, it feels like there's problems with mortality, which I believe right now is a public health problem that can be addressed by insurance taking leadership,” he said. “I think longer term, there’s the possibility of litigation from this is going to be bigger than things like asbestos was for the insurance industry. So, let’s try to figure this out and solve this problem.”

[Thread]

Things tend to remain the same until big business's bottom line is threatened. Just so soon as that happens, things can change quickly, as we all saw in 2020-2021.

Sweetheart, before Election Day COVID will be "a good thing."

[Winehole23]

Disease is never a good thing, sweetheart.

[Winehole23]

"it's just a cold"

1707401394649764038

1707401397690646887

[Winehole23]

I slightly disagree with this. Chronic disability and organ damage from SARS2 infection will affect vastly more juveniles. Short of death, the toll of SARS2 is and will be generational.



When respiratory disease deaths in kids exceeded Cancer deaths, there should have been a discussion


1725245873561756134

[Winehole23]

Are actuaries woke globalists, or are they number crunchers for insurance companies?

[Winehole23]

No data (http://https://x.com/LauraMiers/status/1725548508701249968?s=20), no problem!

1725548508701249968

[Winehole23]

Covid was the 3rd leading cause of death in the US last year.

[Winehole23]

Sweeping the toll of COVID under the rug, as Biden has, is a pure political calculation scorning public health and official responsibility for it.

[Winehole23]

1729903452049043577

[Winehole23]

Implications for insurers: Excess mortality in the general population is an important indicator for insurers, as shifts in the major causes of death may require a reassessment of additional risk in their mortality portfolios. The current levels of excess mortality are of concern. 1836015240867201480

https://x.com/JeromeAdamsMD/status/1836015240867201480

[Winehole23]

it's likely deaths were undercounted


COVID (https://www.scientificamerican.com/coronavirus/) may have killed significantly more people in the U.S. in the first two years of the pandemic (https://www.scientificamerican.com/video/covid-dominated-their-science-lives-heres-what-four-experts-learned-over-two-years/) than official records indicate, with as many as one overlooked death (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/excess-deaths-reveal-the-pandemics-hidden-toll-in-some-u-s-counties/) for every five recorded ones. That brings the total to nearly one million deaths just in 2020 and 2021.


That calculation comes from research published today in Science Advances that seeks to understand how many COVID deaths (http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aef5697) fell through the cracks of official reporting systems. The untallied cases show the burden of the pandemic in the U.S. fell most heavily on marginalized people.

“These vulnerable groups are just taking a higher risk at every step, and the accumulation of all of that is this disparity in COVID mortality at the end,” says Mathew Kiang, an epidemiologist at Stanford University and a co-author of the study.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-killed-150-000-more-people-in-its-first-two-years-than-official-toll/