The new regressive tax coming at you.

[CosmicCowboy]

Yellen just spelled it out. "Let the market determine the value of the dollar". US governments since the 90s have backed a strong dollar. Now we won't (ironically something Trump wanted). Hedge funds are all shorting the dollar. Its already at 2 year lows and will continue to decline. Bottom line? Your paycheck will buy less.

[boutons_deux]

Repugs input to the CARES Act was raising taxes on the non-wealthy, starting in a couple years, to "pay for" the tax cuts for the oligarchy.

[CosmicCowboy]

Repugs input to the CARES Act was raising taxes on the non-wealthy, starting in a couple years, to "pay for" the tax cuts for the oligarchy.

*yawn* boots, your team has the whole enchilada now. What is your derogatory nickname for the democrats going to be when you don't like results?

[FrostKing]

Good evening. Based on your strong opening post, being liked by boutans. I will assume you my friend are a - liberal. Best of lucky. There are many of you here. Good lucky!

[rmt]

Good evening. Based on your strong opening post, being liked by boutans. I will assume you my friend are a - liberal. Best of lucky. There are many of you here. Good lucky!

?? Huh, am I missing something?



*yawn* boots, your team has the whole enchilada now. What is your derogatory nickname for the democrats going to be when you don't like results?

Yep, wonder what people will whine about now when they're the ones who voted the lot of them in.

[ElNono]

Remember when OP was panicking about hyperinflation? :lol good times.

If there's anything we know since the 90s is that D administrations have been continually fixing up the economic fuckups from previous R administrations.

Hopefully this next one can pull it off again.

[DMC]

As long as I can still buy skins and fill my steam wallet, I'll be ok.

[rmt]

Remember when OP was panicking about hyperinflation? :lol good times.

If there's anything we know since the 90s is that D administrations have been continually fixing up the economic fuckups from previous R administrations.

Hopefully this next one can pull it off again.

With everyone getting $2600 and bitcoin hitting $42k? Makes me want to run out and qualify for as many cheap, low-interest rate mortgages (rental houses) as the bank will allow (even at my advanced age).

We shall see.

[baseline bum]

Remember when OP was panicking about hyperinflation? :lol good times.

If there's anything we know since the 90s is that D administrations have been continually fixing up the economic fuckups from previous R administrations.

Hopefully this next one can pull it off again.

Then GOP gets elected back to come fuck it up some more. Gonna be hard to top Trump, but then I thought the same about Bush after he wrecked the economy in 2008.

[Winehole23]

I can only assume CC was referring to Yellen's telegraphed turn to an accomodative monetary policy.sing rates to fast -- as she did from 2015-2017 -- could depress employment.

https://theintercept.com/2021/01/18/janet-yellen-fed-economy-treasury/

[CosmicCowboy]

With everyone getting $2600 and bitcoin hitting $42k? Makes me want to run out and qualify for as many cheap, low-interest rate mortgages (rental houses) as the bank will allow (even at my advanced age).

We shall see.

I'll bet that guy that gave 10,000 bitcoin for a pizza 10 years ago feels like a dumbass now.

[CosmicCowboy]

Remember when OP was panicking about hyperinflation? :lol good times.

If there's anything we know since the 90s is that D administrations have been continually fixing up the economic fuckups from previous R administrations.

Hopefully this next one can pull it off again.

I believe if you search back I said inflation was inevitable, not hyperinflation.

[ElNono]

I believe if you search back I said inflation was inevitable, not hyperinflation.

:lol tbf, it was a while ago, during the QE days. You were certainly concerned about out of control inflation, IIRC. None of that really happened because we were on a deflationary economy at the time.

Again, context is important here. We're again in a shrunk economy that is going to need a lot of stimulus to be brought back up.

[Blake]

?? Huh, am I missing something?




Yep, wonder what people will whine about now when they're the ones who voted the lot of them in.

You'll find plenty to whine about. Your lot always does

[FrostKing]

I believe if you search back I said inflation was inevitable, not hyperinflation.
Clad to have you. You joined and seem to have many answers.

[ElNono]

With everyone getting $2600 and bitcoin hitting $42k? Makes me want to run out and qualify for as many cheap, low-interest rate mortgages (rental houses) as the bank will allow (even at my advanced age).

We shall see.

One time checks don't lift anybody out of poverty though. Doesn't qualify anybody for cheap mortgages either. And it's not meant to.

This is a temporary patch to deal with a temporary health emergency that has brought the most vulnerable to it's knees.

Actually fixing up the economy will have to wait until the pandemic situation is a bit more under control.

[CosmicCowboy]

:lol tbf, it was a while ago, during the QE days. You were certainly concerned about out of control inflation, IIRC. None of that really happened because we were on a deflationary economy at the time.

Again, context is important here. We're again in a shrunk economy that is going to need a lot of stimulus to be brought back up.

And there has been a 22.38% inflation since 2008.

[Winehole23]

And there has been a 22.38% inflation since 2008.Is that a lot?

[ElNono]

And there has been a 22.38% inflation since 2008.

Which is in-line with what it has historically been:

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/

The average inflation rate in this country is ~2% annual, and saving for economic crises, has been the same for a century now.

[ElNono]

Is that a lot?

That's actually relatively low. The expectation is that it would be >= 24% over the past 12 years.

[CosmicCowboy]

Is that a lot?

Probably irrelevant if your income has gone up 23% in 12 years. Oh wait. That income gap you keep complaining about.

[ElNono]

Probably irrelevant if your income has gone up 23% in 12 years. Oh wait. That income gap you keep complaining about.

Exactly. If you have some sort of investment or way to accrue a 3+% interest rate, you're probably beating inflation over the long run.

[CosmicCowboy]

And do you guys think the deflationary balance of cheap imported goods and fracking over the last 12 years will gave the same effect over the next 12 years?

[CosmicCowboy]

Exactly. If you have some sort of investment or way to accrue a 3+% interest rate, you're probably beating inflation over the long run.

Typical richer reply :lol

[Winehole23]

That's actually relatively low. The expectation is that it would be >= 24% over the past 12 years.Sounded low to me.

[Winehole23]

And do you guys think the deflationary balance of cheap imported goods and fracking over the last 12 years will gave the same effect over the next 12 years?You've completely whiffed the last 12 years, but I'm all ears, why don't you tell us how the next 12 years are going to go?

Show us that crystal ball.

[ElNono]

And do you guys think the deflationary balance of cheap imported goods and fracking over the last 12 years will gave the same effect over the next 12 years?

It depends on the context. Fracking is viable only under a number of factors, from the economy roaring to countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia not dumping oil to win market share, to electric not taking over markets like cars. But then electric opens up opportunities to make up for it.

The cheap goods situation on the other hand is unavoidable no matter who is in power. When Trump pushed tariffs on China, some factories moved to Vietnam. There's simply a giant list of countries with a standard of living much, much shittier than America. Realistically, that manufacturing is not ever coming back unless our standard of living plummets, and I frankly rather live with cheap goods if I get to choose.

[ElNono]

Typical richer reply :lol

I don't think you need to be poor or rich to do simple math. If you understand basic economics, you know the money in your pocket depreciates over time.

[ElNono]

Also, negative inflation all the time wrecks economies (ask Japan). Deflationary, stagnating economies shrink. Moderate inflation has a role in making sure money flows on a healthy economy.

The fact that you know the money in your pocket depreciates makes you go out there and find instruments to beat it. That in turn causes you to invest that money into the economy.

[CosmicCowboy]

Seems like we agree on a lot. Richers put that capital to work. Somehow that has become bad and should be taxed to submission.

[CosmicCowboy]

You've completely whiffed the last 12 years, but I'm all ears, why don't you tell us how the next 12 years are going to go?

Show us that crystal ball.

I dunno about that. My net worth has more than doubled in 12 years. How have you done with your remarkable insight?

[CosmicCowboy]

As for my financial projections for the next twelve years? My investments are in real estate, Chinese internet stock (JD), US MSO pot stocks, and a really speculative energy conservation stock.

[Winehole23]

I dunno about that. My net worth has more than doubled in 12 years. How have you done with your remarkable insight?You predicted hyperinflation 12 years ago and kept predicting it throughout Obama's two terms. It never came.

Prognostication is overrated, tbh.

[boutons_deux]

Frost Bank just laid off 68, first in 20 years, claiming reduced income from low interest rates.

Repugs and the fake conservative economists (simpson-bowles, etc) have been whining about deficits (only when Dems in power) and fiscal spending igniting inflation. ALL political LIES

[CosmicCowboy]

You predicted hyperinflation 12 years ago and kept predicting it throughout Obama's two terms. It never came.

Prognostication is overrated, tbh.

You know the definition of hyperinflation, right? Predicting inevitable inflation increase is not the same as predicting hyperinflation.

[Winehole23]

You know the definition of hyperinflation, right? Predicting inevitable inflation increase is not the same as predicting hyperinflation.You backed off the hyperinflation tip after a few years, but kept insisting we'd see significant inflation soon.

How much longer do you think we'll have to wait for "the inevitable inflation?"

If we have to wait another 12 years will you still blame it on Obama? :lol

[CosmicCowboy]

You backed off the hyperinflation tip after a few years, but kept insisting we'd see significant inflation soon.

How much longer do you think we'll have to wait for "the inevitable inflation?"

If we have to wait another 12 years will you still blame it on Obama? :lol

Checked on housing prices lately?

[Bogie]

Seems like we agree on a lot. Richers put that capital to work. Somehow that has become bad and should be taxed to submission.

He actually said you didn’t understand the argument you’re trying to make

[CosmicCowboy]

He actually said you didn’t understand the argument you’re trying to make

Go play with your kiddie darts, jeffrey.

[ElNono]

Seems like we agree on a lot. Richers put that capital to work. Somehow that has become bad and should be taxed to submission.

I don’t know I agree with the bolded. Some do, a lot don’t.

[Bogie]

Go play with your kiddie darts, jeffrey.

Quit being a mindless rw sheep. Inflation rates have not been out of line, as was pointed out to you. But you are right on cue with your conservative political talking points.

you are completely wrong on this point. Nono pointed it out to you, as to why you are wrong, but you got all sarcastic because you were embarrassed.

[CosmicCowboy]

Just agreed with your post 29. Meant for el nono , not Jeffrey.

[Bogie]

Seems like we agree on a lot. Richers put that capital to work. Somehow that has become bad and should be taxed to submission.

“Richers” make money off of manipulated paper. We haven’t had a true manufacturing sector in 30 years.

jesus

[CosmicCowboy]

“Richers” make money off of manipulated paper. We haven’t had a true manufacturing sector in 30 years.

jesus

:lmao

Talk about regurgitated talking points.

[rmt]

I'll bet that guy that gave 10,000 bitcoin for a pizza 10 years ago feels like a dumbass now.

Same as I do now - selling 20 bitcoins at $400 each (and at a loss from $800) back in 2015?. Well, not quite as bad as he does.

[boutons_deux]

CC is back in the 1950s with his concept of current Capitalists investing in GDP growth, in making stuff.

Capitalist circulate money among themselves, gamble with/against each other, hoard their wealth, preferably offshore (on papaer but which actually here in the USA), while the Bankers Private Club, aka the Fed, pumpd out the $Ts that remain within Capitalist oligarchy.

[ElNono]

There's certainly something to be said when the biggest economic markers of the US are largely intangibles like services, IP, financial products, etc.

I don't even think companies like Apple are viable if manufacturing had to be done in the US.

[SnakeBoy]

:lol tbf, it was a while ago, during the QE days. You were certainly concerned about out of control inflation, IIRC. None of that really happened because we were on a deflationary economy at the time.

Again, context is important here. We're again in a shrunk economy that is going to need a lot of stimulus to be brought back up.

We never stopped being in a deflationary economy. The Fed briefly thought it could rollback QE and raise interest rates under Trump but quickly reversed course. I think we are far more likely to see negative interest rates than inflation over the next couple of years.

When do we reach the point that central banks run out of ammo to artificially inflate the economy? I have no idea but we seem determined to find out.

[SnakeBoy]

You've completely whiffed the last 12 years, but I'm all ears, why don't you tell us how the next 12 years are going to go?

Show us that crystal ball.

My guess

https://cdn.dribbble.com/users/1210767/screenshots/4236225/act1-balloon-pumping.gif

[Will Hunting]

We never stopped being in a deflationary economy. The Fed briefly thought it could rollback QE and raise interest rates under Trump but quickly reversed course. I think we are far more likely to see negative interest rates than inflation over the next couple of years.

When do we reach the point that central banks run out of ammo to artificially inflate the economy? I have no idea but we seem determined to find out.
I still don’t conceptually understand negative interest rates. I know the fed can simply cut rates until they’re negative, but when would you ever loan someone $10 expecting to get back $9.50 in a year?

[SnakeBoy]

I still don’t conceptually understand negative interest rates. I know the fed can simply cut rates until they’re negative, but when would you ever loan someone $10 expecting to get back $9.50 in a year?

The negative interest rate won't apply to money you borrow, just the money you deposit :lol

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/negative-interest-rate-policy-nirp.asp#:~:text=%20Negative%20Interest%20Rate%20P olicy%20(NIRP)%20Definition%20,a%20negative%20inte rest%20rate%20policy%20would...%20More


In 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) instituted a negative interest rate that only applied to bank deposits intended to prevent the Eurozone from falling into a deflationary spiral.

[Will Hunting]

The negative interest rate won't apply to money you borrow, just the money you deposit :lol

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/negative-interest-rate-policy-nirp.asp#:~:text=%20Negative%20Interest%20Rate%20P olicy%20(NIRP)%20Definition%20,a%20negative%20inte rest%20rate%20policy%20would...%20More
At one point (not sure if they still do) Europe had negative LIBOR rates. Theoretically that means banks were willing to lend money to other banks at negative rates. Either that or LIBOR pricing is completely rigged :lol

[pgardn]

I still don’t conceptually understand negative interest rates. I know the fed can simply cut rates until they’re negative, but when would you ever loan someone $10 expecting to get back $9.50 in a year?

If you thought the $10 was not safe under your bed Im guessing. I know drug guys put a lot of money (cash) into things that were actually worth a whole lot less just because they could not keep that much cash safe. They could not get it into banks. I guess this is sort of the same idea?

[ElNono]

My guess

https://cdn.dribbble.com/users/1210767/screenshots/4236225/act1-balloon-pumping.gif

:lol tbh

[ElNono]

We never stopped being in a deflationary economy. The Fed briefly thought it could rollback QE and raise interest rates under Trump but quickly reversed course. I think we are far more likely to see negative interest rates than inflation over the next couple of years.

When do we reach the point that central banks run out of ammo to artificially inflate the economy? I have no idea but we seem determined to find out.

Not really true. We've been on positive GDP growth for a number of years. Heck, Trump fans made sure to remind us when the going was good.

We will see deflation and stagnation again now that the economy shrunk until the pandemic is in control. Negative interest rates make no sense from a monetarist policy angle.

What you'll see is stimulus, either via another QE program, etc. This is probably why Yellen is bringing it up.

That said, unlike '08 when a dirty bubble popped, this was caused by a temporary emergency, not a bad economic indicator.

It doesn't mean we're going to go directly back to how things were, because this pandemic also introduced new ideas like how many people can WFH and still be productive, but should be a softer landing.

[Bogie]

:lmao

Talk about regurgitated talking points.

Around 1980 manufacturing made up 25% of overall employment, today the latest stats show it at around 10%

At that time 20 million people were employed in manufacturing, today it’s half that. 25% of the workforce were employed in those jobs, now it’s at 10%.

part of that was automation, and part of that was companies moving jobs overseas. overall output in that time went from about 8 billion to nearly 25 billion.

Companies used the threat of employment, to choke down wages, and lower costs. Doesn’t mean that manufacturing is alive and well in this country.

[CosmicCowboy]

:lmao

Talk about regurgitated talking points.


Around 1980 manufacturing made up 25% of overall employment, today the latest stats show it at around 10%

At that time 20 million people were employed in manufacturing, today it’s half that. 25% of the workforce were employed in those jobs, now it’s at 10%.

part of that was automation, and part of that was companies moving jobs overseas. overall output in that time went from about 8 billion to nearly 25 billion.

Companies used the threat of employment, to choke down wages, and lower costs. Doesn’t mean that manufacturing is alive and well in this country.

You just realized its a global economy?

[Bogie]

You just realized its a global economy?

knew that before. But trying to pretend that “richers” are investing in capital, like they’re some sort of noble class, is where you started with this.

you were wrong. Look at the statistics on wealth in this country. I don’t begrudge you a penny of your money. I don’t begrudge them a penny of their money.

but that money being used to choke off the money cycle at the very top, that should be something everyone has a problem with.

what’s the definition of economics?

[Winehole23]

Yellen just spelled it out. "Let the market determine the value of the dollar". US governments since the 90s have backed a strong dollar. Now we won't (ironically something Trump wanted). Hedge funds are all shorting the dollar. Its already at 2 year lows and will continue to decline. Bottom line? Your paycheck will buy less.


1352671984576909314

[Winehole23]

1394744664050356226

[Winehole23]

Yellen related:

Scoop: Yellen wants business to help foot infrastructure bill (https://www.axios.com/yellen-chamber-of-commerce-speech-taxes-a6746d8e-c2a3-4217-a4d5-f5b2b702550b.html)