Jared Dubin: FiveThirtyEight: The Spurs’ Young Trio Has Them Back In The Mix

[Drom John]

The Spurs’ Young Trio Has Them Back In The Mix (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-spurs-young-trio-has-them-back-in-the-mix/)

[NASpurs]

I think we’ve all noticed this without needing numbers but here they are:

The kids have been better without the Spurs’ stars

Point differential per 100 possessions and overall, for the San Antonio Spurs when Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson have played with and without DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge


ON THE COURT
NUMBER OF POSSESSIONS
DIFF. PER
100 POSS.
OVERALL POINT DIFF.


With DeRozan and Aldridge
275
-3.0
-8


With DeRozan, without Aldridge
156
+3.6
+6


With Aldridge, without DeRozan
93
-2.4
-2


With neither
103
+31.1
+32


Since the start of the 2019-20 season through Jan. 18, 2021. Stats exclude garbage-time possessions.
SOURCE: CLEANING THE GLASS

[RC_Drunkford]

damn, those stats are better than I thought. We have a Top 10 defense????

[Dejounte]

The future is bright.

[KobesAchilles]

I love the youth this year. If we could get a rim runner/ pic n roll dunker in the off season, I think we would be the most exciting team in the league to watch

[Seventyniner]

That's why I read 538 for a while. Then I started reading their political stuff and quit the site. Maybe I should just bookmark their sports section.

[couchman]

The stats match what we've seen with our eyes. The young core is not only the future, but also the present. Let LMA go (or trade him), pick up a mobile big or two, and only keep DDR if he is willing to sign a team friendly deal.

[Chinook]

Eh, they should've just used stats from this season. I bet most of the with neither stats come from the bubble, and that was such a weird environment in general.

[CGD]

Short version captured by this quote from the piece:

“This year’s youthful trio is actually driving a decent amount of the Spurs’ success — at least, when they’re not being weighed down by the presence of DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, with whom they typically start every game.”

[The Truth #6]

Short version captured by this quote from the piece:

“This year’s youthful trio is actually driving a decent amount of the Spurs’ success — at least, when they’re not being weighed down by the presence of DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, with whom they typically start every game.”

Yep! I didn’t think the difference would be even this extreme. Please just let them walk in the off-season.

[Uriel]

Great article, thanks for sharing :tu

Also confirms that much of the blame from last year’s disastrous season rests on Pop, who played the wrong lineups. At least this year he’s finally making up for it.

[CGD]

Yep! I didn’t think the difference would be even this extreme. Please just let them walk in the off-season.

Better yet getting something for them at trade deadline.

[Chinook]

If you look at the lineup data for this year, that trio isn't even a net positive. Sure, they play a LOT of minutes with DeRozan and/or Aldridge, but there's no evidence that they play better when it's all three of them without those guys. Out of the top 20 most-used lineups, none of the ones with a neutral or positive net-point impact are have the trio without DeRozan. As with every year for SA, the bench dominates in terms of net-point impact. Murray is for sure part of a ton of the good lineups, but DMDR is right behind him with Walker and Johnson only occasional actors. To argue the trio is actually driving the success this year is just very wrong, to the point that it's intentionally misleading.

Here is the lineup data for those who actually want to mess with it:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2021/lineups/

538 should know better.

[CGD]

What I can’t tell is whether this analysis tells us anything about the type of big man Spurs need to maximize the gaurd dominant attack. Assume rim runner.

[Chinook]

To keep going with this, here are Johnson's lineup numbers from last year:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnske04/lineups/2020

You can see the absurd net-ratings he has with Walker and Murray without LMA and DMDR. I'm using Johnson since he played almost all of his minutes in the bubble and actually has lineup data we can use to isolate their play there. Those absurd unsustainable numbers are still driving the stats from this sample. It's insane to use them when doing any serious analysis.

[Dejounte]

CKRTernh9db

[poopbox]

Nba players play better when they are not playing with a big at the end of his career putting up career low numbers for shooting, points, rebounds, and shooting percentages...

More news at 11...

[exstatic]

What I can’t tell is whether this analysis tells us anything about the type of big man Spurs need to maximize the gaurd dominant attack. Assume rim runner.

Rim runner is old school, and clogs the lane too much. Houston had one of the best in Capela, and GS played him off the floor in the playoffs so easily, they just dumped him. The modern arc type pivot is a three point shooting shot blocker.

[Truckules]

damn, those stats are better than I thought. We have a Top 10 defense????

It was significantly worse until they hit the OKC (ranked 29th offense), HOU (missing Harden, Wall, and Gordon), HOU, POR (missing McCollum and Nurkic) stretch. I'm not sold on this team being a top 10 defense, but it can be an average one.

[Chinook]

Rim runner is old school, and clogs the lane too much. Houston had one of the best in Capela, and GS played him off the floor in the playoffs so easily, they just dumped him. The modern arc type pivot is a three point shooting shot blocker.

Eh, the Durant Warriors are a major outlier. They had the talent to dictate match ups in a way no team can now. A normal team doesn't run Capela or Gobert or even Poeltl off the floor.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

The conclusions in this article are laughably bad tbh.

Looks like nerds crunching numbers without having watched a minute of Spurs basketball.

[jjktkk]

damn, those stats are better than I thought. We have a Top 10 defense????

This happens when you post overexaggerated takes, on how bad Pop and the Spurs are...
Pop is basically dragging the franchise down like Kobe did with the Lakers

[Chinook]

If people are actually wondering why SA is "back in the mix", it's because they are getting good if not great three-point shooting without the need for specialists. There's some luck there in terms of their assists to turnover ratio that looks to be evening out, but getting a ton of shots from guys like Gay, Murray, Johnson and even DeRozan is making the Spurs harder to defend. Defensively, they have REALLY obvious problems due to playing small, and they can only cover those up by having the drive and energy to rotate effectively and gang-rebound. They've had that enough in a lot of games, but some like the Rockets loss and Jazz loss, they haven't had it at all. As the season goes on, we'll see how sustainable that effort will be. I don't think the trio is consistent enough to carry the Spurs to a title. Maybe with White back, Poeltl in rhythm and some more development from Vassell, the young guys as a whole can do it. But by far the clearest path to the playoffs is having the four vets carry the scoring load while the youngers chip in on offense and carry the defense. You can see that in some games, but outside of Mills and usually DeRozan, the oldies have been just as inconsistent as the youngsters.

[Dejounte]

If people are actually wondering why SA is "back in the mix", it's because they are getting good if not great three-point shooting without the need for specialists. There's some luck there in terms of their assists to turnover ratio that looks to be evening out, but getting a ton of shots from guys like Gay, Murray, Johnson and even DeRozan is making the Spurs harder to defend. Defensively, they have REALLY obvious problems due to playing small, and they can only cover those up by having the drive and energy to rotate effectively and gang-rebound. They've had that enough in a lot of games, but some like the Rockets loss and Jazz loss, they haven't had it at all. As the season goes on, we'll see how sustainable that effort will be. I don't think the trio is consistent enough to carry the Spurs to a title. Maybe with White back, Poeltl in rhythm and some more development from Vassell, the young guys as a whole can do it. But by far the clearest path to the playoffs is having the four vets carry the scoring load while the youngers chip in on offense and carry the defense. You can see that in some games, but outside of Mills and usually DeRozan, the oldies have been just as inconsistent as the youngsters.

Seems the Spurs started to move away from specialists since Bertans.

Forbes.

Beli.

Next is Mills

[stephen jackson]

How are we 6-2 with Aldridge tho...

[r0drig0lac]

"Around this time last year, we were pretty down on the Spurs. They were sporting their worst defense in team history, trotting out lineups that resulted in cramped spacing, essentially refusing to play their two best young players at the same time (Murray and Derrick White)7 and rarely playing two of the other young guys (Walker and Johnson) at all." it's almost like they're reading what some of us have spent more than a season complaining about the coach.

[spurraider21]

CKRTernh9db
i dont know how they come up with that, but presumably they're charting Demar as the 4 in the starting unit, when Keldon has usually drawn the bigger assignments on defense

[exstatic]

Eh, the Durant Warriors are a major outlier. They had the talent to dictate match ups in a way no team can now. A normal team doesn't run Capela or Gobert or even Poeltl off the floor.

They allow you to contract your defense, and switch much easier.

[Mugen]

"Around this time last year, we were pretty down on the Spurs. They were sporting their worst defense in team history, trotting out lineups that resulted in cramped spacing, essentially refusing to play their two best young players at the same time (Murray and Derrick White)7 and rarely playing two of the other young guys (Walker and Johnson) at all." it's almost like they're reading what some of us have spent more than a season complaining about the coach.

:lol The Sniff Crew slurping the old man off this year because of basic B coach moves that everybody with 1/2 a brain was clamoring for the last few years.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I think we’ve all noticed this without needing numbers but here they are:

The kids have been better without the Spurs’ stars

Point differential per 100 possessions and overall, for the San Antonio Spurs when Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson have played with and without DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge


ON THE COURT
NUMBER OF POSSESSIONS
DIFF. PER
100 POSS.
OVERALL POINT DIFF.


With DeRozan and Aldridge
275
-3.0
-8


With DeRozan, without Aldridge
156
+3.6
+6


With Aldridge, without DeRozan
93
-2.4
-2


With neither
103
+31.1
+32


Since the start of the 2019-20 season through Jan. 18, 2021. Stats exclude garbage-time possessions.
SOURCE: CLEANING THE GLASS



31.1! Simulator crew can't even simulate or off-season right.

[Dex]

damn, those stats are better than I thought. We have a Top 10 defense????

10th in Defensive Efficiency according to Hollinger.

Obviously still a long ways to go, but that's a hell of a lot better than the 25th we finished last season in.

[Rummpd]

The stats match what we've seen with our eyes. The young core is not only the future, but also the present. Let LMA go (or trade him), pick up a mobile big or two, and only keep DDR if he is willing to sign a team friendly deal.

Truth