A SpursTalk Discussion: A Tale of Two Types of Fans and What Is The Truth?

[Dejounte]

I was reading this quote from TheChillFactor (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=15955) :


Player X shows the slightest bit of potential and then -

Hype him as the Spurs next savior, when he has a bad stretch talk shit about him and demand a trade.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

Keldon, you're up next... :downspin:

And it had me thinking--

What is the truth, really?

Where do I fall in this spectrum? Is any one side right? Should we dismiss any talk of negativity about young prospects because we need to give them time?

Or does the truth lie on the other side? That what we see in the present is reflective of what we'll see in the future?

No... that can't be right. These have to be two extremes. These are two kinds of people: your typical edgy cliff jumper and your typical "prospects can do no wrong" homer.

What if... the truth is right in the middle?

What if... the truth is that if their potential is not realized after a certain period of time, then their potential drops?

Are these not sensible ideas?

I broke down four popular SpursTalk prospects. Have a look:

https://i.ibb.co/2Z57Tz7/Dejounte-Murray.png

https://i.ibb.co/RHNhBNd/Derrick-White.png

https://i.ibb.co/pyLFYx0/Lonnie-Walker.png

As a BONUS:


https://i.ibb.co/Cthw7bf/Kawhi-Leonard.png

https://ibb.co/RSzg03q
You see,

Maybe the truth is that the player is not as good as some fans think they are and not as bad as some fans think they are.

That is my conclusion.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

that certainly is a post

[KobesAchilles]

This right here is real fandom :toast

**edit** I was high on Derrick White after watching his G league year. The dude reminded me of a young James Harden (not current Harden but when he first entered the league). I was all for him to get real time and of course to start last year.

Murray I liked. He seemed young and hungry and his length and athleticism were a bonus. But he had no feel for the game, took 15 foot runners, and couldn’t dribble. I put up with all the Jilly bullshit only to see him get injured and waste a year. I knew it would take over a year to get back into rhythm which is why I said I wouldn’t judge him til after Feb. then the pandemic happened And I lost faith in him during the bubble last year. This year he has been amazing

Lonnie I have no idea if I like him or not. I just kept saying he needed playing time over Marco and effing Forbes. He has so much athleticism it’s hard not to like him. His jumper is amazing and he seems like a great kid. But the dude is charmin soft and has no dawg. Can that be taught? Probably. But most likely on another team if at all.

KJ though has exceeded all expectations. The dude is a baller. He will get his 3 pointer down at some point next off season, refs will learn who tf he is, and he will get calls. Dude is gonna be special and a all star in 3 years.

[J_Paco]

I thought you were using analytics or metric for the 'data' on the graphs, but you were really just paraphrasing posters on ST.

The issue is that guys like Nephew, Kobe, Giannis & to a lesser degree Jimmy Butler are rare and expecting any of these guys to reach that level is unrealistic.

Don't get me wrong, I've been "duped" or "suckered" when one of them has a nice group of games or a monster performance yet getting to the level of a superstar (which all those guys I mentioned are but Butler) takes an insane level of consistency. A level that most fans and analysts really take for granted, IMO, and our guys may never attain.

I've been saying that our future superstar isn't currently on the roster and the goal should be to find him. Our current group are really more like unrealized complimentary pieces that might not truly blossom without that superstar.

Unfortunately, Pop isn't the type of coach that is going to just "give up" and tank for a higher lottery pick.

I think right now three of the guys are either hitting a wall (Keldon), going through a funk/confidence issue (Lonnie) or trying to find their way back from injury (Derrick), but they have all (except Derrick) shown some progress this year. Gotta hope they begin to hit their stride, the team competes for the play - in game, but falls short and ends up with a good lottery pick.

Hell, maybe that Franz kid that DeJounte likes so much isn't the next Thad Young, Mikal Bridges, Miles Bridges, Doug McDermott or Dario Saric (see, I compared him to some non - White players this time), we draft him and he actually is a superstar at the NBA level....

[Dejounte]

^well yeah, disclaimer: tried to use the consensus on some of these ratings. Forgive me if something's off. I might have even made a mistake on the timelines.

But yeah, the truth might end up being somewhere in the middle between your projection and mines for Franz, J_Paco . The lesson here is trying to see it that way whenever we get carried away with our like/dislike of players.

[J_Paco]

^well yeah, disclaimer: tried to use the consensus on some of these ratings. Forgive me if something's off. I might have even made a mistake on the timelines.

But yeah, the truth might end up being somewhere in the middle between your projection and mines for Franz, J_Paco . The lesson here is trying to see it that way whenever we get carried away with our like/dislike of players.

No worries, homie. I get where you are coming from and your point in making the thread.

Every players development arch isn't exactly the same and fans need to be a little more patient while realizing that they'll likely not reach Nephew's level (or even a tier or two below him).

No doubt about Franz, dude. I came off as dismissive towards him and your analysis not realizing how good he's been this college season.

I would prefer a more athletic, rim running, two - way type of PF, but if we nab him then I'll definitely want him to succeed.

[J_Paco]

Also, I'll say we should also be happy that not of the kids were a true "bust."

Look at the likes of actual terrible selections like D.J. Wilson (flaming out in Milwaukee), Jerome Robinson (was given little opportunities in Los Angeles & hasn't done much with Washington) or Dragan Bender (washed out in Phoenix & Milwaukee, now trying to make a NBA comeback or headed back to Europe) who were all selected around the range of our kids.

Thankfully all our kids (minus Samanic) have shown some NBA level skills/abilities.

[Sugus]

You certainly have a lot of time in your hands, my guy :lol good post

I wonder, though, is there any "logic" or reasoning behind the numbers of Player Rating? Or is it your own personal estimation? I can't seem to find any numerical link between the graph and the columns. Also, where's my graph on Keldon?! He's your profile pic and you leave him out, but put Nephew in?? lol

On the graph, it's hilarious how high I am on Lonnie still, despite the lackluster play. Y'all will see someday. High on White as well, not so much for DJ, but I like them all. Nephew's last row should have had 3 "fuck this guy" btw :lol

[Dejounte]

You certainly have a lot of time in your hands, my guy :lol good post

I wonder, though, is there any "logic" or reasoning behind the numbers of Player Rating? Or is it your own personal estimation? I can't seem to find any numerical link between the graph and the columns. Also, where's my graph on Keldon?! He's your profile pic and you leave him out, but put Nephew in?? lol

On the graph, it's hilarious how high I am on Lonnie still, despite the lackluster play. Y'all will see someday. High on White as well, not so much for DJ, but I like them all. Nephew's last row should have had 3 "fuck this guy" btw :lol

I think it roughly took ~30 minutes. Had to rush at the end because my wife was finished making dinner. :lmao

Player rating was personal estimation.

I think we can all agree Lonnie Walker had the highest perceived potential when he was first drafted, so I gave him an 8. Dejounte was next at 7. White at 5 because "old". From there, it would be all guessing where those two certain types of fans stood. The green line is their estimated production meeting their potential, and you can see that for Derrick White last year is about two notches below what we all think his ceiling would be. That's because no one really thinks his potential is through the roof, he's really almost there if we're being realistic.

The reason for no Keldon is due to the incomplete data. I don't think two years would suffice in this instance. A quick summary would go like this:

Pessimists: "Keldon is not athletic enough to be anything more than a role player, like a PJ Tucker type."
Optimists: "Keldon is the next Charles Barkley."

When I mentioned in the opening post about where I stand in the spectrum, I would say I venture back and forth and humbly acknowledge that I could be wrong about any player in any instance. That includes your boy, Lonnie :) It's a process, and it'll always be fun to talk about it back and forth with other fans.

[apalisoc_9]

Self rightous vanilla mainstream fans thinking there is a right way to be a fan.

Typical vanilla mainstream PATFO sucker fans.

If fans want to hate or blindly fall in love with a player..let them be.

[daslicer]

Self rightous vanilla mainstream fans thinking there is a right way to be a fan.

Typical vanilla mainstream PATFO sucker fans.

If fans want to hate or blindly fall in love with a player..let them be.

Surprisingly I agree.

[daslicer]

I don't have any emotional energy invested in this group of players the Spurs have. I guess a lot of it has to do with being older now. Also factor in the Spurs are not a contender. I will say the Spurs have a good collection of solid young talent in Dejounte,Keldon,White,Vassell,Walker but it's highly unlikely any of these guys will ever be superstars. Maybe we will get lucky and one of these guys through hard work will become an all-star. For me I just enjoy the games where one of the Spurs young players goes off.

[cascaders]

wow interesting post! best post ive seen this year so far :D