Nature: Five Reasons Why Herd Immunity Is Probably Impossible

[Winehole23]

That threshold is generally achievable only with high vaccination rates (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4), and many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would permit society to return to normal. Most estimates had placed the threshold at 60–70% of the population gaining immunity, either through vaccinations or past exposure to the virus. But as the pandemic enters its second year, the thinking has begun to shift. In February, independent data scientist Youyang Gu changed the name of his popular COVID-19 forecasting model (https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/) from ‘Path to Herd Immunity’ to ‘Path to Normality’. He said that reaching a herd-immunity threshold was looking unlikely because of factors such as vaccine hesitancy, the emergence of new variants and the delayed arrival of vaccinations for children.


Gu is a data scientist, but his thinking aligns with that of many in the epidemiology community. “We’re moving away from the idea that we’ll hit the herd-immunity threshold and then the pandemic will go away for good,” says epidemiologist Lauren Ancel Meyers, executive director of the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. This shift reflects the complexities and challenges of the pandemic, and shouldn’t overshadow the fact that vaccination is helping. “The vaccine will mean that the virus will start to dissipate on its own,” Meyers says. But as new variants arise and immunity from infections potentially wanes, “we may find ourselves months or a year down the road still battling the threat, and having to deal with future surges”.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2)

[Winehole23]

But it’s going to be hard to stop people reverting to pre-pandemic behaviour. Texas and some other US state governments are already lifting mask mandates, even though substantial proportions of their populations remain unprotected. It’s frustrating to see people easing off these protective behaviours right now, Scarpino says, because continuing with measures that seem to be working, such as limiting indoor gatherings, could go a long way to helping end the pandemic. The herd-immunity threshold is “not a ‘we’re safe’ threshold, it’s a ‘we’re safer’ threshold”, Scarpino says. Even after the threshold has been passed, isolated outbreaks will still occur.

[SnakeBoy]

We'll have herd immunity when we become a herd

[hater]

This will go away like magic by april

[Spurtacular]

I love how they changed herd immunity from eradication (for Trump) to a threshold (for Biden). :lol

[Spurtacular]

This will go away like magic by april

You don't get out of this sh**. You sperm shielded for the scamdemic for a year.

[Leetonidas]

I love how they changed herd immunity from eradication (for Trump) to a threshold (for Biden). :lol


Who are "they"?



inb4 deflection attempt

[Spurtacular]

Who are "they"?

Your lords and masters.

[Leetonidas]

inb4 deflection attempt
Called it. Derp folds

[Winehole23]

Who are "they"?



inb4 deflection attemptderp be derpin. he has no idea what he's talking about.

if you doubt it, just ask him. :lol

[Leetonidas]

I have no lords or masters unlike you Trump fellators

[Spurtacular]

Called it.

You called jack sh** with your gimmick.
Quite frankly, it's likely you don't know who all your lords and masters are, tbh.

[Spurtacular]

I have no lords or masters unlike you Trump fellators

Called it.

[Leetonidas]

Derp blathering incoherently, per par.

[ChumpDumper]

I love how they changed herd immunity from eradication (for Trump) to a threshold (for Biden). :lolNo one ever said it was eradication, derp.

No one.

[Rummpd]

Public health doctor here who has giving hundreds of Moderna vaccines and overseen vaccine campaigns other diseases. The OP article is a fair one, and honestly it is probably too early to tell about the level of herd immunity with variants involved and a multitude of other factors. Herd immunity can be enough to shut down transmission but there can also be relative herd immunity which decreases spread but not stop it. I have friends modeling this stuff and incredibly complicated.

[DarrinS]

Just have NIH and FDA approve Ivermectin already.

[DarrinS]

So whinehole can unclench his butt cheeks. Must be exhausting.

[Winehole23]

So whinehole can unclench his butt cheeks. Must be exhausting.I'm doing fine, but I do worry about others. Navel-gazers like you don't get it.

[DarrinS]

I'm doing fine, but I do worry about others. Navel-gazers like you don't get it.


Everything you post (not even necessarily covid-related) is pessimism.

[Rummpd]

Just have NIH and FDA approve Ivermectin already.

That is a whole other discussion I know a respected pulmonary and critical care expert pushing hard use of that drug. It can be used off label. A danger is that some people are taking the drug made for horses - not a good idea. An issue human form can only be given by a pill in what is normally available. I know a doctor tried to get for a ventilator patient and could not find it in a form to give.

[DarrinS]

That is a whole other discussion I know a respected pulmonary and critical care expert pushing hard use of that drug. It can be used off label. A danger is that some people are taking the drug made for horses - not a good idea. An issue human form can only be given by a pill in what is normally available. I know a doctor tried to get for a ventilator patient and could not find it in a form to give.

Yeah, I definitely wouldn't take veterinary version of that drug.


Here's an international panel discussion released today



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypxrJhSg5xU

[Winehole23]

Everything you post (not even necessarily covid-related) is pessimism.That's a lazy generalization.

If you read through caredully, you'll see that I've posted news that's good, bad and indifferent.

If you want to blame the trend of ominous/bad new on me, fine, but Occam's razor might suggest a simpler answer: COVID-19. In a pandemic like this one the bad news chases us, not the other way around.

[baseline bum]

Everything you post (not even necessarily covid-related) is pessimism.

And you're posting nothing but unfounded rosy optimism constantly. Have been doing it for a year now.

[ChumpDumper]

Why didn't New York City get a spike in cases?

https://cdn.abcotvs.com/dip/images/6236392_060720-wabc-ap-sundayprotests-img.jpg

So many already had it there. No fuel.

[DarrinS]

And you're posting nothing but unfounded rosy optimism constantly. Have been doing it for a year now.


You're the most immune person in Texas. Natural infection plus two doses of Pfizer. Live your life.

[baseline bum]

You're the most immune person in Texas. Natural infection plus two doses of Pfizer. Live your life.

You have been saying the pandemic is over for ten months now, fucking own it.

[DarrinS]

Why do some people hate good news??

We're in a good place. Our European "superiors" are going through a third wave.

Operation Warp Speed was a good thing.

And there are therapeutic options available.

[DarrinS]

You have been saying the pandemic is over for ten months now, fucking own it.

Nope. Just wrong about NY.

[DarrinS]

You have been saying the pandemic is over for ten months now, fucking own it.

Its over for you

[baseline bum]

Its over for you

I didn't realize the world revolved around me. And it's not over for any of us until it's over for all of us.

[DarrinS]

I didn't realize the world revolved around me. And it's not over for any of us until it's over for all of us.


You people can't even enjoy victory.

We're kicking this thing's ass.

[Winehole23]

the recent trend is encouraging, but the US caseload seems to have flatlined around 50,000 daily cases.

too soon to declare victory, jmo.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol 540k dead and we're kicking its ass

[baseline bum]

You people can't even enjoy victory.

We're kicking this thing's ass.

We haven't won until the entire world has stopped the virus from raging. And it's still raging here with a 7-day moving average of ~56k new cases daily. And how are we going to kick COVID's ass when only 56% of Republicans (https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-or-already-have/) say they have gotten or plan on getting vaccinated?

[DarrinS]

:lol 540k dead and we're kicking its ass


Yep, we let thousands die for no reason. Doctors didn't know what to do (and many still don't). They are looking for guidance.

Our national guidelines can't be "wait until you can't breathe and then go to the hospital".

In that sense, it is a national failure.

[baseline bum]

Yep, we let thousands die for no reason. Doctors didn't know what to do (and many still don't). They are looking for guidance.

Our national guidelines can't be "wait until you can't breathe and then go to the hospital".

In that sense, it is a national failure.

The national failure was never even attempting to get on top of controlling the virus and our federal government saying it would all just go away. South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Australia have shown this could have been controlled.

[DarrinS]

The vaccinations are a huge success story. It will be even better when they optimize the appointments

[DarrinS]

The national failure was never even attempting to get on top of controlling the virus and our federal government saying it would all just go away. South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Australia have shown this could have been controlled.


Get over it. New York blew up way before that was a possibility.

[baseline bum]

The vaccinations are a huge success story. It will be even better when they optimize the appointments

Only if you on the right actually take them.

[baseline bum]

Get over it. New York blew up way before that was a possibility.

Bullshit, South Korea had its first verified case the same day the US did.

[DarrinS]

I give credit to Australia, but they don't have anywhere near the international flyers as the US.

[baseline bum]

I give credit to Australia, but they don't have anywhere near the international flyers as the US.

I suppose South Korea doesn't have many Chinese flying there?

[Spurtacular]

No one ever said it was eradication.

No one.

Jewpedia did for one, DERP.

[DarrinS]

Jewpedia did for one, DERP.

Shut up, faggot

[Spurtacular]

Shut up, faggot

What's got in your vagina, Karrins?

[DarrinS]

What's got in your vagina, Karrins?


You are a garbage human that does nothing but dick slap with chump.

[Spurtacular]

You are a garbage human that does nothing but dick slap with chump.

You have double my post count in this thread, Karrins.

What a garbage human faggot you are, tbh.

[DarrinS]

You have double my post count in this thread, Karrins.

What a garbage human faggot you are, tbh.


Bye

[Spurtacular]

Bye

Going to the other side? Say hello to KMC for me.

[ChumpDumper]

Yep, we let thousands die for no reason. Doctors didn't know what to do (and many still don't). They are looking for guidance.

Our national guidelines can't be "wait until you can't breathe and then go to the hospital".

In that sense, it is a national failure.Yeah, you had it all figured out last February.:lmao

You said NYC was out of fuel last June.:lmao

You were so fucking wrong.:lmao

[ChumpDumper]

Jewpedia did for one, DERP.Do you know how wikipedia works, derp?

[Spurtacular]

Do you know how wikipedia works, derp?

IT WAS A FAKE!!!!

[ChumpDumper]

IT WAS A FAKE!!!!I asked you a question, derp.

Do you know how wikipedia works?

Answer or you're going on ignore because you've proved you're nothing but an asshurt coward.

Last chance.

[Spurtacular]

Yeah, you had it all figured out last February.:lmao

You said NYC was out of fuel last June.:lmao

You were so fucking wrong.:lmao

Meltdown.