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View Full Version : O'Neal or Brand: The Spurs Only Chance...



scott
07-07-2003, 11:51 AM
...at repeating as NBA Champions.

As news pours out of The Land of Milk and Silicone that Gary Payton could be going to a land famous for another glove (OJ's Bloody One) and the Mailman is ready to deliver in purple and gold; the Spurs are presented with the opportunity to sign one of the best players in the NBA. But will it be enough to defend their crown?

Not likely.

There is little arguing with the school of thought says when you have the chance to get a great player- get him. One way or another, Jason Kidd will make the Spurs team better, if not different. But that improvement pales in comparison at the thought of the former 3-Time Champ's moves to add a great point guard themselves, as well as one of the most consistently potent scorers in NBA history to what already amounts to the best duo in the league- Kobe and Shaq.

So how does the new, upbeat, Kidd-infused Spurs team compete against the retooled (in the same way you retool a rusty, beat-up 1967 Mustang into a classic hot rod with a flamed candy apple finish) Lakers?

At least on paper, the city of San Antono should enjoy their bragging rights over LA as much as they can over the next 10 to 11 months, because they are headed back to LA on an F-14 Tomcat.

Starting with the redesigned point guard match-up, the Spurs aquisition of Jason Kidd immediately comes under fire when he goes head up against Gary Payton

In their head to head meeting this playoff season when the Nets and the Bucks (two teams with far lesser supporting casts)- the matchup was fairly close to even.

Name....PPG....APG...RPG...SPG...BPG...FG%...3P%.. .TO...A/TO
Kidd.....18.8....9.2....6.8....1.7....0.3...46.1.. ..37.5...4.2....2.2
Payton..18.5...8.7....3.0.....1.3...0.2...42.9.... 06.7....2.2...4.0

Any supporter of Kidd would be quick to point out how his numbers would improve with the benefit of playing alongside Tim Duncan- but lest we forget how much Gary Payton would be playing alongside Shaq, Kobe, and the Mailman. Much like Kidd, Payton has never had the luxury of playing alongside a superstar- but that changes in LA, where Payton becomes a piece of perhaps the most offensively potent starting 5 in the league (Dallas notwithstanding).

Of course, part of the Kidd aquisition inherently includes the shifting of Tony Parker to the two guard, moving Stephen Jackson to the Small Forward position to share time with Bruce Bowen.

Here, Gregg Popovich has an interesting choice. Bruce Bowen is a must versus the Lakers, but his minutes would see a reduction to make room for Stephen Jackson. Be rest assured that any time Bruce Bowen is not in the game, Kobe Bryant has a far easier time scoring baskets. The offensive production from Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Stephen Jackson may improve from being the recipient of a Jason Kidd pass, but the Spurs exposure to Kobe Bryant’s offensive explosions is increased by the marginal decline in Bruce Bowen’s minutes, thus offsetting the offense created by Jason Kidd’s presence.

At the power forward position, Tim Duncan still has the clear-cut advantage on both ends of the floor against Karl Malone. The Mailman's production versus San Antonio this season was non existent- averaging just over 14 points a game. We can most likely expect similar production as the Mailman's efficiency increases playing with Shaq, Kobe, and Payton, but his touches will be limited. LA will most likely be forced to employ their double teaming strategy vs. Tim Duncan again, as Karl Malone is no longer a viable post defender against the top 4/5s in the league.

For the first time in year we are going to be faced with the most undesirable situation in the league... having no answer for Shaquille O'Neal. Talk has centered around Alonzo Mourning replacing David Robinson at center, but even that is a question mark at best given Mourning's health. Even if healthy, Mourning along with Malik Rose will have their hands full attempting to hold Shaq to 40 points, something Spurs fans have not been forced to endure in the past.

So, given the gloomy prospects ahead of them, what can the Spurs do?

The answer(s) is simpler than you may think.

Choose one of the following:

A.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Jermaine O’Neal
B.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Elton Brand
C.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Choice A
D.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Choice B

Tony Parker has already shown he can match up with Gary Payton in the playoffs as well as Jason Kidd can, and Bruce Bowen’s minutes will not be reduced as they would with Jason Kidd in the line up. The key, of course, is the interior presence provided by either O’Neal or Brand. Both O’Neal and Brand are in the top 10 in blocks per game, as well as rebounds. With either, the Spurs would need to use a combination of Brand/O’Neal and Duncan throughout the game- but guarding Shaq becomes no less daunting than it was with David Robinson.

In the end, Jason Kidd will make the Spurs better, one way or another. But he won’t make the Spurs champions.

Hope for Jermaine or Elton, Spurs Fans.

MI21
07-07-2003, 11:55 AM
I skimmed/read most of your post because I'm a tad busy at the moment, but what i read was generally spot on.

Alot of people think Malone and Payton on LA will do nothing, but that makes them very very tough.

Jermaine and another player, or Elton and another player, or Kidd and Mourning will be the Spurs only hope in my opinion.


Much like Kidd, Payton has never had the luxury of playing alongside a superstar

Shawn Kemp was very good for a while there. Very good.

scott
07-07-2003, 01:32 PM
IMO, Kemp was not significantly better than Kenyon Martin, Jamaal Mashburn, or Shawn Marion, certainly not a star anyway.

Kemp's best season with the Sonics was 19.6 ppg to go with 11.4 rebounds.

Kenyon Martin didn't quite put that up, but he did put up 16.7 ppg and 8.3 rebounds.

In his best year paired with Kidd, Marion put up 17.3 ppg and 10.7 rpg (and it should be noted that Marion's productivity has increased without Kidd).

In Kidd's first two seasons with Dallas, Mashburn put up 24.1 and 23.4 ppg, respectively.

SpursRock50
07-07-2003, 01:57 PM
so basically if the Spurs go any other route besides O'neal or Brand...they are done for the season and its hopeless because LA is a lock to win the title next year?

Please.....Spurs Fans never change :rolleyes

scott
07-07-2003, 02:06 PM
Please.....Spurs Fans never change

Thanks for the insight Dizz. I'll keep holding out hope we can win a title through the magic of pixie dust.

adidas11
07-07-2003, 02:09 PM
Dizz??? Where?

Archie
07-07-2003, 02:13 PM
Even if the Spurs land O'Neal or Brand they would be facing a Laker team with two bigs...and Payton intead of a Derek Fisher. I don't think the Spurs win in that scenario either.

Aggie Hoopsfan
07-07-2003, 03:38 PM
so basically if the Spurs go any other route besides O'neal or Brand...they are done for the season and its hopeless because LA is a lock to win the title next year?

Please.....Spurs Fans never change

If we max out Kidd and get no starting big man, we're fucked.

Period. End of story. We'd have zero depth on the front line, a clusterfuck in the backcourt, a pissed off Tony Parker that would have to probably be traded, Manu's growth is stunted, the list goes on and on.

Let's be honest, we're in serious danger of fucking ourselves right now, our biggest enemy is the Jason Kidd tunnel vision that apparently is perpetuating itself through the minds of Pop, RC, and Tim.

We can't afford to **** this up with the splash the Lakers are apparently going to make, but it's exactly where we're headed.

AHF

Ghost Writer
07-07-2003, 03:42 PM
You're right, AHF. Courting Kidd is a serious waste of time unless we broker a sign-and-trade to bring in a starting center, too.

My only fear is that the Lakers manage to have a better offseason than us.

:cooldevil

TjMaxx
07-07-2003, 03:49 PM
Dizz??? Where? Right here!

pub97.ezboard.com/fspursdominionfrm4.showMessage?topicID=156.topic (http://pub97.ezboard.com/fspursdominionfrm4.showMessage?topicID=156.topic) :moon

scott
07-09-2003, 07:01 PM
Malone and Payton are Lakers... time to face the music for the Spurs.

LittleGeneral
07-09-2003, 07:07 PM
:lol @Tj's link.

Admiral
07-09-2003, 07:19 PM
Awesome post, scott. We are most definitely screwed if we get Kidd and the Lakers get Payton and Malone. We're partly screwed just by getting Kidd, for reasons previously discussed ad nauseum.

It's pretty ironic (and somewhat humorous) that the Lakers have been winning titles and not trying to win the "how much cap space can you set aside for 2003?" game. While we seem to have that title in the bag, we are probably not going to be the big winners this summer. The Lakers are, and we're left wondering what we can do to stay even. :cuss

This was supposed to be our summer to get ahead and build the dynasty that the homers promised us two years ago when the Fantasy Summer of 2003 plan was officially unveiled. Now, we must add Jermaine O'Neal (which seems highly unlikely given the news out of Indiana today) or somehow hope that Sterling will not match a max offer made to Elton Brand. That is, of course, assuming we're not too starstruck by the mere mention of Kidd's name to make Brand an offer.

Barring a serious turn of events by CIA Pop, we're looking at Kidd or nothing. We no longer have the plethora of options that we were assured that we would have this summer. Our future is being dictated for us, which is exactly what dominant teams don't allow to happen. Again, trades allow you to be in control, and free agency doesn't. This can be salvaged, but the HOYA stock is definitely on the decline according to after-hours trading.

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:20 PM
Shut up Admiral your post is ridiculous.

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:23 PM
Actually, the addition would be Kidd & PJ Brown. If you think that is awful you need to go watch a Hagee TV special.

Anyways, please stop complaining just to be complaining. I've yet to hear one coherent alternative plan for life after David Robinson. You show up and you drop 5 full paragraphs of nothing on us like you know something. Yet they are only full of useless whines and nothing substantive. What exactly should the Spurs have done differently? Damn, they have DRob retiring and you would want them to be capped out with DA and Lamond Murray right now? The Spurs have the chance to add a variety of talent to this team now that DRob's retired and that's a bad thing?

You're worse than Ghost.

Admiral
07-09-2003, 07:28 PM
Shut up Admiral your post is ridiculous. -Archie

No, saving all of our cap room for this summer to try to build a dream team roster is what's ridiculous.

Archie assured us that superstars would flock to San Antonio's warm climate to get to play with Tim Duncan. I hope you are actually CIA Archie and know something we don't, because things aren't looking good from the civilian point of view.

Have you considered the fact that Kidd is likely to stay in New Jersey? Then we might have to give a max deal to your boy Olowokandi.

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:30 PM
What I assured you is that the Spurs would have the flexibility to shape their roster around TD once DRob retired. All you've done is bitch like a little girl.

Admiral
07-09-2003, 07:31 PM
Actually, the addition would be Kidd & PJ Brown. If you think that is awful you need to go watch a Hagee TV special. -Archie

Hagee TV Special? :wtf

Kidd is likely to stay in New Jersey. Even if he doesn't, and signs with us instead, is it worth losing Tony Parker for Kidd?

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:31 PM
No, saving all of our cap room for this summer to try to build a dream team roster is what's ridiculous.


That was never the agenda. It was to give the Spurs the flexibility to add talent once DRob left. Would you prefer that the Lakers made those acquisitions and the Spurs had no flexibility at all during Duncan's prime? Get real.

Admiral
07-09-2003, 07:32 PM
What I assured you is that the Spurs would have the flexibility to shape their roster around TD once DRob retired. All you've done is bitch like a little girl. -Archie

Unless flexibility can play center, it doesn't do us much good, now does it Mr. Bunker?

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:34 PM
Kidd is likely to stay in New Jersey. Even if he doesn't, and signs with us instead, is it worth losing Tony Parker for Kidd?


The only way Parker is moved is if the Spurs get something worthwhile in return. The Spurs don't plan on shipping him out just to ship him out. He and Kidd would form a pretty damn good backcourt if you would take your blinders off and think for once.

If the Spurs were capped out now Spurs fans would be whining about that. Dammit have some fucking patience.

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:35 PM
Unless flexibility can play center, it doesn't do us much good, now does it Mr. Bunker?

Yeah, **** signing a great player we just absolutely have to get a center. So now you're saying that Chris Mihm should have been traded for? Get real.

PJ Brown will fit in well on the frontline.

Admiral
07-09-2003, 07:38 PM
That was never the agenda. It was to give the Spurs the flexibility to add talent once DRob left. Would you prefer that the Lakers made those acquisitions and the Spurs had no flexibility at all during Duncan's prime? Get real. -Archie

What's the difference? Saving your money to obtain one or maybe even two stars is the same thing as trying to achieve a dream team roster. People start to salivate over the idea of a team with guys like Duncan, Kidd, O'Neal, Marion, etc. The goal is to be very talented at two or three positions.

I'm glad we have flexibility, but so far that flexibility isn't doing much for us. It doesn't take regression analysis in your business statistics class to figure that out. You make it sound like it is either tons of cap space or a team filled with long-term max deals to players who don't deserve it. I think most of us here would prefer something in the middle - an area that you conveniently omit when trying to win an argument.

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:38 PM
I also doubt that Kidd is likely to stay in NJ at the moment. Of course only in your warped mind would it be a bad thing for the Spurs to have a shot at Kidd and TD for the rest of their careers. Come on and whip out the old 'I want guarantees' drivel from Ghost.

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:41 PM
What I'm saying, ultimately, is that things are never 100% perfect in this league. I don't know wtf you think this is. The Spurs can't force players to sign with them and they can't get rid of certain contracts (ie DA) immediately if they need to. The Spurs decided that DA was not worth keeping long term. Now you tell us that was wrong. What gives?

Damn. The Spurs just won a title and they have $16 mil in cap flexibility to shape this team for Duncan's prime. And now they have the flexibility to adjust to life with GP in LA. And you still complain.

Admiral
07-09-2003, 07:43 PM
The only way Parker is moved is if the Spurs get something worthwhile in return. The Spurs don't plan on shipping him out just to ship him out. He and Kidd would form a pretty damn good backcourt if you would take your blinders off and think for once. -Archie

That's not what I meant. If we obtain Kidd, Parker will sign elsewhere when his contract is up with the Spurs. You can take that to the bank. It's common sense, Archie. Point guards want the ball, and Parker wouldn't be in charge of it with Kidd here. Not only that, but he is not big enough to play shooting guard on either end. On top of that, another team would offer him a nice deal and their starting PG spot. Think like a point guard (especially one with a killer instinct like Parker) and it is obvious.


If the Spurs were capped out now Spurs fans would be whining about that. Dammit have some fucking patience. -Archie

I have been patient for two years. At some point, you have to evaluate and ask "how is this plan working?" If a verdict were given based on today's news, the answer would be "not very well."

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:45 PM
I'm glad we have flexibility, but so far that flexibility isn't doing much for us.

****. No one can be signed yet and you are bitching already. So far we've had two commitments...neither of whom where high on the Spurs list. And the Spurs are in the thick of things with Kidd. Relax.





It doesn't take regression analysis in your business statistics class to figure that out.


?




You make it sound like it is either tons of cap space or a team filled with long-term max deals to players who don't deserve it. I think most of us here would prefer something in the middle - an area that you conveniently omit when trying to win an argument.

Middle = DA. That's not hard to understand. The Spurs knew that DRob would retire. How can they be faulted for trying to build the best supporting cast long term for TD? You act as though they aren't. TD seems to think they are doing the right thing.

This is not about next season it is about the next 6 seasons. Figure it out.

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:47 PM
I have been patient for two years. At some point, you have to evaluate and ask "how is this plan working?" If a verdict were given based on today's news, the answer would be "not very well."



WTF? See you want everything. Spurs just won a title and yet you complain. Spurs have max cap room and you complain because they can't guarantee themselves that they will sign X player. If you think things look that bleak I'd hate to see you when things really sucked.

Archie
07-09-2003, 07:53 PM
That's not what I meant. If we obtain Kidd, Parker will sign elsewhere when his contract is up with the Spurs. You can take that to the bank. It's common sense, Archie. Point guards want the ball, and Parker wouldn't be in charge of it with Kidd here.

Parker is primarily a scorer not a playmaker. Of course you miss the obvious point that you have the league's best playmaker and post player on the same team. Yet a homer like you who is in love with Parker cannot see this.



Not only that, but he is not big enough to play shooting guard on either end.


He defends opposing 1s. Next.




On top of that, another team would offer him a nice deal and their starting PG spot. Think like a point guard (especially one with a killer instinct like Parker) and it is obvious.


You are thinking too much like a virtual GM. You are assuming way too much with respect to TP. You totally ignore the fact that this is the last time the Spurs will have this ability to add this level of talent to the team. Your view is simple and it is frankly a bore. At least you are a smart young man unlike Ghost but you are misguided like hell about what constitutes a horrible offseason for a NBA team.

Admiral
07-09-2003, 08:01 PM
So now you're saying that Chris Mihm should have been traded for? Get real. -Archie

Here you go, dealing in extremes again. I did not want to trade for Mihm.


What I'm saying, ultimately, is that things are never 100% perfect in this league. -Archie

You don't say? It's a good thing that you are here to grace us with your unparalleled knowledge, or else we would not know a thing about the NBA. I hope it was obvious from my earlier posts that anything less that 100% perfection - and that includes missing even one field goal in a game - is unacceptable.

Seriously, I'm not expecting it to be 100% perfect. I am expecting a good return on investment, though. When that investment is two years of waiting, not just any "name" will do. Not for the fans who understand fit and chemistry, anyway.


I don't know wtf you think this is. The Spurs can't force players to sign with them and they can't get rid of certain contracts (ie DA) immediately if they need to. The Spurs decided that DA was not worth keeping long term. Now you tell us that was wrong. What gives? -Archie

I realize that the Spurs can't force players to sign with them, and that is exactly why I was against the Holting Pattern from the get-go. I am glad that we did not keep DA, and have not said anywhere that it was wrong for us to do the sign-and-trade. Where are you getting this stuff?


Damn. The Spurs just won a title and they have $16 mil in cap flexibility to shape this team for Duncan's prime. And now they have the flexibility to adjust to life with GP in LA. And you still complain. -Archie

Again, what has that flexibility gotten us? Nothing yet, so it's a little premature to be discussing the brilliance of the Fantasy Summer of 2003 plan. I said two years ago that this was too risky, and you said it was pure genius. I hope I'm wrong, and you're right, but so far it's not looking good for you Arch.

Tim Duncan doesn't deserve a lottery approach to building his supporting cast. I have no doubt that the Spurs are doing all they can, but free agency largely puts the players in control. Therein lies the problem. The Spurs should be deciding the Spurs' future, not free agents.

Archie
07-09-2003, 08:10 PM
I realize that the Spurs can't force players to sign with them, and that is exactly why I was against the Holting Pattern from the get-go. I am glad that we did not keep DA, and have not said anywhere that it was wrong for us to do the sign-and-trade. Where are you getting this stuff?

Because losing DA was a part of the plan. Duh.



Again, what has that flexibility gotten us? Nothing yet, so it's a little premature to be discussing the brilliance of the Fantasy Summer of 2003 plan. I said two years ago that this was too risky, and you said it was pure genius. I hope I'm wrong, and you're right, but so far it's not looking good for you Arch.

What you don't seem to understand is that it is just as risky to cap yourself out long term without a second star. And another thing that you seem to be forgetting is that Tim Duncan had an option to be a free agent this summer and his deal for certain expired the next. The Spurs set themselves up with max cap flexibility in order to help them retain him. It's funny how Duncan's re-signing here was taken for granted when just 2 years ago it looked like the last possible thing. Also, do you really think the Spurs don't talk to Duncan about this stuff? You want to know what's risky? Capping yourself out with a bunch of non-star talent and then watching Duncan walk. That's risky.




Tim Duncan doesn't deserve a lottery approach to building his supporting cast. I have no doubt that the Spurs are doing all they can, but free agency largely puts the players in control. Therein lies the problem. The Spurs should be deciding the Spurs' future, not free agents.


A lottery approach is capping yourself out with non-star talent and hoping you get a franchise player out of the draft or that someone will trade you one....while your franchise's contract is expiring soon. That's not a good idea. There are two ways for a team to land a star...they draft one or they sign one as a free agent. It's less often that a trade of a superstar occurs.

You have such an misunderstanding of the Spurs situation. It was never assumed that Duncan would be back when the Spurs decided to target this summer as their time to restructure the team. Never. Yet you did. That is foolish.

Archie
07-09-2003, 08:12 PM
Seriously, I'm not expecting it to be 100% perfect. I am expecting a good return on investment, though. When that investment is two years of waiting, not just any "name" will do. Not for the fans who understand fit and chemistry, anyway


Then the Spurs should just re-sign the entire team and never make any changes.

Do you really think the Spurs can afford to make minor adjustments over the next 5 seasons? That's risky. That's naive.

Admiral
07-09-2003, 08:15 PM
WTF? See you want everything. Spurs just won a title and yet you complain. -Archie

Yes, we just won a title and I am ecstatic about it. I will probably never have a better moment as a sports fan. I do not see how that relates to free agency this summer though. Those are two separate issues. It's time to move on from the title celebration and work on the future.


Spurs have max cap room and you complain because they can't guarantee themselves that they will sign X player. If you think things look that bleak I'd hate to see you when things really sucked. -Archie

I am not expecting a guarantee that X player will sign. I would like to see us put ourselves in position to challenge for a title the next few years, and I don't see how we can with the Lakers' starting five including Shaq, Kobe, Payton, and Malone. Now that truly is a dream team lineup, and as a Spurs fan that concerns me.

What I would like to see is us have a realistic shot at signing a good big man. I had hoped to be in the thick of things with O'Neal and Brand, and it looks like both of those are unavailable. I can get excited about Kidd if he's who we get, but I will be somewhat disappointed for Tim since he really deserves a star big man next to him.

If we do get Kidd, how would you feel about trying to trade Parker for a young big man also on a rookie deal?

I really don't have any confidence in a Parker/Kidd backcourt, and don't feel that our roster lends itself well to "experimenting." As you stated, we need to win now while Duncan is in his prime. Although he scores too, I think Parker is still an NBA point guard. Out of fairness to him, and since he would probably leave anyway with Kidd on board, I would like to just go ahead and trade him if we obtain Kidd.

It would be a shame to see Parker blossom elsewhere, though.

Archie
07-09-2003, 08:16 PM
Dammit they are working on that Admiral. We aren't there yet.

NCaliSpurs
07-09-2003, 08:58 PM
Admiral -

Now that this whole kidd thing has been decided, I am starting to come around to what Pop is thinking?

Imagine Dallas with a true MVP and some hardnosed defense.

They could tear up the league, no matter what LA adds.

That is what pop is building here.

Kidd > Nash
Parker <= NVE (though he may be > NVE this year)
Manu/SJax ~= Finley (combine the numbers of these two and you will see I ain't crazy)
Duncan > Dirk
(Zo or Pj or Malone)/K. Willis/Malik > Lafrentz or Bradly

On paper, we would be similar, yet more talented (especially with the growth of young guards). On the court, we would still be a defensive monster, something Dallas has never been able to accomplish.

We could do some hella fastbreaks with Kidd and Manu.

We could slow it down and put it in your throat in the half-court.

Bring it on LA.

RuffnReadyOzStyle
07-09-2003, 09:07 PM
Very interesting discussion.

At this point I'm willing to have some faith in Pop and RC - have they let us down recently??? Nooooo, they haven't. They are not stupid. They know that JKidd is not enough, that we need a starting quality centre as well. They know that Elton and Jermaine would probably fit us better. They want to develop Tony, Manu and Jax.

It's a balancing act, but it's one they're well paid for and I trust them to do it competently.

And don't forget TD - he knows what he needs beside him, players respect him... mark my words, we will come out of this summer set up just fine to contend again.

MadeFromDust
07-10-2003, 08:15 AM
Right here!

pub97.ezboard.com/fspursdominionfrm4.showMessage?topicID=156.topic

"Well, dip me in vanilla and call me Ric Barry!!" -Savory Johnson :lol :rollin Re: the link (http://pub97.ezboard.com/fspursdominionfrm4.showMessageRange?topicID=156.to pic&start=7&stop=7)