[Magic Numbers] Future outlook for the Spurs to land a lottery pick in the draft

[Dejounte]

As of 4/2/21, the Spurs have a 24-22 record.

If all non-playoff teams follow their season WIN% for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/MDsJSP6/based-on-season.png

When using the season WIN%, it's important to note that this has been an irregular season due to COVID.

Factors that may render the Spurs SEASON WIN% somewhat unreliable:
-Aldridge being a part of the team for many games
-The two week COVID break the team had
-DeMar being gone due to the death of his father


If all non-playoff teams follow their WIN% from the Last 10 games for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/SySkM3q/based-on-L10.png

Factors that may render the Spurs L10 WIN% somewhat unreliable:
-Multiple players out due to COVID
-Lonnie being out due to a wrist injury
-Addition of Dieng may balance the roster and improve the WIN% going forward

Obviously, you cannot predict how the season record based off WIN% alone but it can give us an idea of what to expect. I believe the WIN% for the remaining games for the Spurs will lie somewhere in between .400 to 0.520.

Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 1st to 5th pick range in the draft lottery:

The Spurs must not win more than 1 game out of its remaining 26. This is virtually impossible, if we're being realistic.

Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 6th to 8th pick range in the draft lottery:

The Spurs must not win more than 3-6 games out of its remaining 26. Three games max to get the 6th pick, six games max to get the 8th pick. This is extremely unlikely.

Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 9th to 12th pick range in the draft lottery:


The Spurs must not win more than 7-10 games out of its remaining 26. Seven games max to get the 9th pick, ten games max to get the 12th pick. This is unlikely. This scenario requires a major free fall for the Spurs.

Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 13th to 14th pick range in the draft lottery:


The Spurs must not win more than 11-12 games out of its remaining 26. If the last ten games has been any indication of things to come, this scenario is possible.

[cd021]

Spurs are currently projected to 33-39 according to 538's RAPTOR. That would put them in a 3-way tie for the 11th worst record. Considering they have the 3rd toughest schedule remaining, they might end up with the 11th pick again.

[Darius Bieber]

Spurs are currently projected to 33-39 according to 538's RAPTOR. That would put them in a 3-way tie for the 11th worst record. Considering they have the 3rd toughest schedule remaining, they might end up with the 11th pick again.

Which kinda sucks, because outside of the Top 5 picks the talent drops off tremendously. It's a very top-heavy draft class.

[Dejounte]

Spurs are currently projected to 33-39 according to 538's RAPTOR. That would put them in a 3-way tie for the 11th worst record. Considering they have the 3rd toughest schedule remaining, they might end up with the 11th pick again.



538's RAPTOR projections also had the Spurs with the 17th worst record on March 1:

https://web.archive.org/web/20210302170124/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

17th worst record on March 9:

https://web.archive.org/web/20210309054638/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

17th worst record on March 18th:

https://web.archive.org/web/20210318050249/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

Reference:
https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

In order to have a 33-39 record, the Spurs would have to lose two games for every one game they win. Both season and last 10 trends don't show that as a likely possibility. It's a major drop off.

[Leetonidas]

Which kinda sucks, because outside of the Top 5 picks the talent drops off tremendously. It's a very top-heavy draft class.

Eh, one thing I've realized after watching NBA ball for 20 years is that college scouting is pretty hit or miss. Last year's draft was supposed to be one of the worst ever yet it gave us some pretty exciting top end rookies and a lot of solid rookies making meaningful contributions to their teams already. I've been hearing all year the 2021 draft is supposed to be loaded. Either way I trust the Spurs ability to draft more than any other aspect of the org at this point

[PrimeMinister]

I put 0 stock into the pundit evaluations of whether a draft is “weak” “strong” or any other signifiers to that effect

It’s the sports equivalent of tarot card readings or astrology.

There’s some really interesting players available throughout the first round. Good length and versatility at positions of need for the spurs. Pundits and scouts miss contributors and good nba players every single year.

[rjv]

I put 0 stock into the pundit evaluations of whether a draft is “weak” “strong” or any other signifiers to that effect

It’s the sports equivalent of tarot card readings or astrology.

There’s some really interesting players available throughout the first round. Good length and versatility at positions of need for the spurs. Pundits and scouts miss contributors and good nba players every single year.

agree. and while it's always great to get that superstar, the draft is more about being able to find someone that fits a need. ideally, it's a player that can contribute right away.

[timvp]

Good stuff. The takeaway for me is it's too late for a proper tank so you might as well root for them to win, tbh :lol

[FutureMan]

Excellent thread idea. To be clear, if we loss the play in game(s) our pick is higher. I’m wondering what that difference will be? Are we talking about the difference between getting pick #20 if we make the playoffs vs pick #16??

[cd021]

538's RAPTOR projections also had the Spurs with the 17th worst record on March 1:

https://web.archive.org/web/20210302170124/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

17th worst record on March 9:

https://web.archive.org/web/20210309054638/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

17th worst record on March 18th:

https://web.archive.org/web/20210318050249/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

Reference:
https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

In order to have a 33-39 record, the Spurs would have to lose two games for every one game they win. Both season and last 10 trends don't show that as a likely possibility. It's a major drop off.

Technically they're outpacing their net rating by two wins. They should be 22-24, the difference is that they're starting to lose close games rather than pulling them out. Going 9-18 is a bit on the worst-case scenario side of things but they could legit lose 7 of their next 10 games and be 27-29. With these games so closely bunched together, there's little time to make adjustments to right the ship, add in fatigue, and they could finish the season in a tailspin.

[cd021]

Which kinda sucks, because outside of the Top 5 picks the talent drops off tremendously. It's a very top-heavy draft class.
I have heard its 5 deep and kinda of a mixed bag. Still, it would probably to have the Spurs picking 11th than in the mid teens. Also would probably discourage them from bringing back DeRozan on a long-term deal after missing the playoffs with him as the best player.

[spurs1990]

There's always a chance to win the lottery. Spurs had a 21% chance in 1997 and ended up winning the first two raffles.

And remember they run this for picks 1-4, so Spurs have four shots at getting into the top 4.

2021 odds for the worst records:
1-3: 14%
4th: 12.5%
5th: 10.5%
6th: 9%
7th: 7.5%
8th: 6%
9th: 4.5%
10th: 3%
11th: 2% (Spurs in 2020)
12th: 1.3%
13th: 1.2%
14th: 0.5%

Too many other tanking teams for Spurs to get into the top 10 slots. As the Tim says may as well root for the playoffs.

[daslicer]

Spurs are currently projected to 33-39 according to 538's RAPTOR. That would put them in a 3-way tie for the 11th worst record. Considering they have the 3rd toughest schedule remaining, they might end up with the 11th pick again.

Pop leads the Spurs to back to back 11th pick. Maybe next year the Spurs will get the 9th pick.

[Dejounte]

Technically they're outpacing their net rating by two wins. They should be 22-24, the difference is that they're starting to lose close games rather than pulling them out. Going 9-18 is a bit on the worst-case scenario side of things but they could legit lose 7 of their next 10 games and be 27-29. With these games so closely bunched together, there's little time to make adjustments to right the ship, add in fatigue, and they could finish the season in a tailspin.

Yeah, I guess it depends on how you look at things. I think it would be easier for me to put money on the Spurs going close to 0.500 the rest of the way than 0.350, but that's just me.

[Dejounte]

In sum,

A top 10 pick this year (barring a miracle with the lottery ball) is very unlikely to happen. IMO, it's playoffs or 13th/14th pick in the draft.

[RC_Drunkford]

I‘m pretty confident in this team not being able to win 10 of the last 26 tbh

[KingKev]

In sum,

A top 10 pick this year (barring a miracle with the lottery ball) is very unlikely to happen. IMO, it's playoffs or 13th/14th pick in the draft.


Thanks for this. Agree with your conclusion also. I don’t see us making a trade to move up either. Hate to be so pessimistic but I think we should start getting used to picking low to mid teen for the next few years.

[KobesAchilles]

Dat future doe...

In summation we are getting a worse player than the 3 minute a game guy we currently have and the 3 game a year guy we drafted the year before.

[Kurgan]

Treadmill aka nba purgatory

[Spurs Homer]

Yes = Spurs get a top pick - so that Pop can stick DNP's up the rookies ass!

Yes!

[duncan2150]

My guess is Spurs will be 10 in the West, Imo they will probably have a pick between 15-18

[mo7888]

As of 4/2/21, the Spurs have a 24-22 record.

If all non-playoff teams follow their season WIN% for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/MDsJSP6/based-on-season.png

When using the season WIN%, it's important to note that this has been an irregular season due to COVID.

Factors that may render the Spurs SEASON WIN% somewhat unreliable:
-Aldridge being a part of the team for many games
-The two week COVID break the team had
-DeMar being gone due to the death of his father


If all non-playoff teams follow their WIN% from the Last 10 games for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/SySkM3q/based-on-L10.png

Factors that may render the Spurs L10 WIN% somewhat unreliable:
-Multiple players out due to COVID
-Lonnie being out due to a wrist injury
-Addition of Dieng may balance the roster and improve the WIN% going forward

Obviously, you cannot predict how the season record based off WIN% alone but it can give us an idea of what to expect. I believe the WIN% for the remaining games for the Spurs will lie somewhere in between .400 to 0.520.

Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 1st to 5th pick range in the draft lottery:

The Spurs must not win more than 1 game out of its remaining 26. This is virtually impossible, if we're being realistic.

Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 6th to 8th pick range in the draft lottery:

The Spurs must not win more than 3-6 games out of its remaining 26. Three games max to get the 6th pick, six games max to get the 8th pick. This is extremely unlikely.

Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 9th to 12th pick range in the draft lottery:


The Spurs must not win more than 7-10 games out of its remaining 26. Seven games max to get the 9th pick, ten games max to get the 12th pick. This is unlikely. This scenario requires a major free fall for the Spurs.

Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 13th to 14th pick range in the draft lottery:


The Spurs must not win more than 11-12 games out of its remaining 26. If the last ten games has been any indication of things to come, this scenario is possible.

That's good work!

[PrimeMinister]

I‘m pretty confident in this team not being able to win 10 of the last 26 tbh

Im gonna say I’m trending this direction as well

the book on this team has been written defensively. Pop is not going to adjust his rotations mid season to compensate.

Lonnie needs to come back a man possessed and Dieng needs to not have any lingering health concerns or else 10-16 is the ceiling for this team down the stretch and it could get uglier than that.

[Prime BEEF]

Dat future doe...

In summation we are getting a worse player than the 3 minute a game guy we currently have and the 3 game a year guy we drafted the year before.
hahaha. perfect

[BackHome]

I am not sure but I remember us really falling where it looked like the team had given up until the Covid thing hit and we went into the Bubble?

As far as Walker and Dieng those injuries won't impact them running up and down the floor but it will kill there shooting percentages and they will definitely not want to be getting any rebounding wars or driving in traffic.

[3&D_TBH]

Great thread. Much appreciated.

[cd98]

Spurs are going to lose a lot of these games in 2nd half. I think they could get a food losing streak going and get into the lottery.

[timtonymanu]

Way overdue to continue the losing streak

[spurs10]

Good work here. We just went 3-7 and I think that's what we'll do the next 10 games. Should be about 27-30 going into the last 15.

[slick'81]

This sour team may just end up in the lottery after all. Its still going to take some work though

[SpurPadre]

We're now at the 18th pick and only 3.5 games back from 10th pick.

[ragas]

I give them 6-8 wins the rest of the season. Maybe 10 if Phoenix, Milwaukee or Brooklyn have nothing to play for at the end.

[PrimeMinister]

I think the one thing the premise of the thread didn’t account for was the nature of the schedule along with the strength of opponent. Early season spurs on normal rest I could see giving a fight to a tier 1 team- late season spurs on no or little rest is getting run off the floor by the third.

Also the spurs record against teams +.500 has been shit for some time now- you can almost chalk up a game against a playoff team as a loss at this point.

Spurs starting unit by net rating has been treading water all year. Demar derozan is one of the most negative players in basketball by +/- per 100 possessions. It’s 4 on 5 defensively and 4 on 5 offensively when he doesn’t have the ball.

You can’t run a motion offense around him because teams can play off of him and pack the paint so cutting and dump off passes at the rim don’t work. So you force your offense into trading isos. But Demar doesn’t command any attention off the ball with his lack of catch and shoot game. So when anyone but Demar has the ball you have what amounts to a free safety to help off Demar and cheat into driving lanes. Notably Keldon is impacted most by this- as soon as he touches the ball, defenders are cheating into driving lanes usually off derozan to stop his drive, or the help has already been brought into the paint by Demar and there’s nowhere for Keldon to go.

Dejounte is a better true passer in the half court. Derrick has more range and can give the defense a different look as a ball handler with his shooting beyond the arc. Derozan just... dribbles into a 15 footer and pump fakes for 10 seconds and sometimes it goes in and sometimes it doesn’t. Off ball you have to give him space - cutting is a no fly zone because he largely inhabits the paint and you don’t want to draw a help defender in. So when Demar has the ball everyone stands around and waits for a kick out. It’s just not an offense that wins basketball games and Demar derozan has proved that with more than a decades worth of evidence.

This spurs team is going to SUCK down the stretch. Absolutely SUCK. And Demar might get his 20 points on seemingly decent efficiency- but at what cost, reader? At what cost?

[Dejounte]

Spurs' play of late definitely hasn't been encouraging.

0-1, with 25 games remaining.

With that being said, winning only six games out of those 25 still doesn't seem likely to me. So a top 8 pick without winning the lottery ball feels impossible at this point. The team would have to flat out quit in order for that to happen. They've been in it for the most part for these terrible losses. If they had been blowouts, I would be more convinced.

The point about the condensed schedule does play a factor.

We'll see how these remaining games go. I think it's interesting watching players like Rudy, DeMar, Mills get demolished on a consistent basis and still get playing time like they do.

[Truth4sale$]

If Pop continues to sit key players to close out games, or
The spurs let other guards go off we will hit the magic number for a top 10 pick.

[TD 21]

I think the one thing the premise of the thread didn’t account for was the nature of the schedule along with the strength of opponent. Early season spurs on normal rest I could see giving a fight to a tier 1 team- late season spurs on no or little rest is getting run off the floor by the third.

Also the spurs record against teams +.500 has been shit for some time now- you can almost chalk up a game against a playoff team as a loss at this point.

Spurs starting unit by net rating has been treading water all year. Demar derozan is one of the most negative players in basketball by +/- per 100 possessions. It’s 4 on 5 defensively and 4 on 5 offensively when he doesn’t have the ball.

You can’t run a motion offense around him because teams can play off of him and pack the paint so cutting and dump off passes at the rim don’t work. So you force your offense into trading isos. But Demar doesn’t command any attention off the ball with his lack of catch and shoot game. So when anyone but Demar has the ball you have what amounts to a free safety to help off Demar and cheat into driving lanes. Notably Keldon is impacted most by this- as soon as he touches the ball, defenders are cheating into driving lanes usually off derozan to stop his drive, or the help has already been brought into the paint by Demar and there’s nowhere for Keldon to go.

Dejounte is a better true passer in the half court. Derrick has more range and can give the defense a different look as a ball handler with his shooting beyond the arc. Derozan just... dribbles into a 15 footer and pump fakes for 10 seconds and sometimes it goes in and sometimes it doesn’t. Off ball you have to give him space - cutting is a no fly zone because he largely inhabits the paint and you don’t want to draw a help defender in. So when Demar has the ball everyone stands around and waits for a kick out. It’s just not an offense that wins basketball games and Demar derozan has proved that with more than a decades worth of evidence.

This spurs team is going to SUCK down the stretch. Absolutely SUCK. And Demar might get his 20 points on seemingly decent efficiency- but at what cost, reader? At what cost?

Agree with the DeRozan take, but it's the same offensive issues with Murray and unlike the former, he doesn't provide plus play making for his position and can't get to the line either.

He puts very little pressure on opposing defenses, but as long as he gets his precious mid-high teens points, him and many on this board seem to think job well done.

[LeBowen]

vs Cavs
@ Nuggets
@ Nuggets
@ Mavs
@ Magic (b2b)
@ Raptors
vs Blazers
@ Suns (b2b)
@ Pacers
vs Heat
vs Pistons (b2b)
@ Pels
@ Wizards
@ Heat
@ Boston
vs Sixers
@ Jazz
@ Jazz
@ Kings
@ Blazers (b2b)
vs Bucks
@ Nets
@ Knicks (b2b)
vs Suns
vs Suns (b2b)

Tomorrow's game is probably the easiest one for the rest of the season. :rollin
Two other weakest games are both on b2b, Magic and Pistons.

There's not a single other game where we're the clear favorites. Noone other than those 3 teams is tanking.
Every home game except the Cavs and Pistons is against teams with a better record. Including two easier games, 4-4 at best, if that. Probably 2-6.
On the road? Magic, Raptors, Pacers, Pels, Wizards, Boston, Kings, Knicks should be winnable, but we're not the favorites. Which means we'll probably get like 2 or 3. 4-4 in those is best case scenario.

That leaves us with 9 more or less guaranteed Ls. Maybe we get 1 of those. 2 at best.

I can't see this team winning 10 more games and that would be the best case scenario. Anywhere between 5-20 and 8-17 seems realistic.

[PrimeMinister]

Agree with the DeRozan take, but it's the same offensive issues with Murray and unlike the former, he doesn't provide plus play making for his position and can't get to the line either.

He puts very little pressure on opposing defenses, but as long as he gets his precious mid-high teens points, him and many on this board seem to think job well done.

Murray I’m not throwing the book at because he’s just simply not a finished product and is a product at this moment of the roster and line ups he plays in. Murray with the right team of defenders and shooters around him can be deadly and brings 2 way value that Demar never has and never will bring. He’s shown improvement with his shooting and I think within a few years or even as soon as next year could be a 35%+ type shooter on normal volume.

Demar is who he is. He’s not shooting 3s- that fantasy is gone. He’s not a defender. He’s a good 2 point scorer that can break down a defender in isolation but has immense limitations in his offensive arsenal that are becoming more suffocating as the league moves to a more pace and space driven style.

Murray as a point guard can assimilate and be effective leading a pace and space team. His improvement from last year speaks for itself. Demar can’t and won’t and also happens to be a bryn forbes caliber defender and is getting worse.

[rankingtear]

I think the one thing the premise of the thread didn’t account for was the nature of the schedule along with the strength of opponent. Early season spurs on normal rest I could see giving a fight to a tier 1 team- late season spurs on no or little rest is getting run off the floor by the third.

Also the spurs record against teams +.500 has been shit for some time now- you can almost chalk up a game against a playoff team as a loss at this point.

Spurs starting unit by net rating has been treading water all year. Demar derozan is one of the most negative players in basketball by +/- per 100 possessions. It’s 4 on 5 defensively and 4 on 5 offensively when he doesn’t have the ball.

You can’t run a motion offense around him because teams can play off of him and pack the paint so cutting and dump off passes at the rim don’t work. So you force your offense into trading isos. But Demar doesn’t command any attention off the ball with his lack of catch and shoot game. So when anyone but Demar has the ball you have what amounts to a free safety to help off Demar and cheat into driving lanes. Notably Keldon is impacted most by this- as soon as he touches the ball, defenders are cheating into driving lanes usually off derozan to stop his drive, or the help has already been brought into the paint by Demar and there’s nowhere for Keldon to go.

Dejounte is a better true passer in the half court. Derrick has more range and can give the defense a different look as a ball handler with his shooting beyond the arc. Derozan just... dribbles into a 15 footer and pump fakes for 10 seconds and sometimes it goes in and sometimes it doesn’t. Off ball you have to give him space - cutting is a no fly zone because he largely inhabits the paint and you don’t want to draw a help defender in. So when Demar has the ball everyone stands around and waits for a kick out. It’s just not an offense that wins basketball games and Demar derozan has proved that with more than a decades worth of evidence.

This spurs team is going to SUCK down the stretch. Absolutely SUCK. And Demar might get his 20 points on seemingly decent efficiency- but at what cost, reader? At what cost?

You keep saying this but when a i look at it Keldon and Lonnie are lower and nowhere close to the most negative. Are you referring to another stat?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per100Possessions&CF=GP*GE*20&TeamID=1610612759

[mo7888]

Spurs' play of late definitely hasn't been encouraging.

0-1, with 25 games remaining.

With that being said, winning only six games out of those 25 still doesn't seem likely to me. So a top 8 pick without winning the lottery ball feels impossible at this point. The team would have to flat out quit in order for that to happen. They've been in it for the most part for these terrible losses. If they had been blowouts, I would be more convinced.

The point about the condensed schedule does play a factor.

We'll see how these remaining games go. I think it's interesting watching players like Rudy, DeMar, Mills get demolished on a consistent basis and still get playing time like they do.

Looking at the schedule I'd guess we go 7 and 18... but I'll officially guess 9-16 because a couple of teams that should beat us will probably be resting guys late in the season.

[PrimeMinister]

You keep saying this but when a i look at it Keldon and Lonnie are lower and nowhere close to the most negative. Are you referring to another stat?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per100Possessions&CF=GP*GE*20&TeamID=1610612759

Good catch- the stat I was pulling from mentally is ESPN’s RPM stat of which Demar is ranked in the 300s at -2.23

essentially plus minus adjusted with net differential factored in.

[TD 21]

Murray I’m not throwing the book at because he’s just simply not a finished product and is a product at this moment of the roster and line ups he plays in. Murray with the right team of defenders and shooters around him can be deadly and brings 2 way value that Demar never has and never will bring. He’s shown improvement with his shooting and I think within a few years or even as soon as next year could be a 35%+ type shooter on normal volume.

Demar is who he is. He’s not shooting 3s- that fantasy is gone. He’s not a defender. He’s a good 2 point scorer that can break down a defender in isolation but has immense limitations in his offensive arsenal that are becoming more suffocating as the league moves to a more pace and space driven style.

Murray as a point guard can assimilate and be effective leading a pace and space team. His improvement from last year speaks for itself. Demar can’t and won’t and also happens to be a bryn forbes caliber defender and is getting worse.

Murray's unfortunately taken after DeRozan in his obsession with pull up mid rangers and aversion to 3's (similar rate and worse % than last season) and as much as DeRozan hampers their spacing and tanks their defense, he also shields them from getting exposed for not having another primary scorer/shot creator.

Only the recently started re-building Pistons and Magic have worse options under contract beyond this season.

[PrimeMinister]

Murray's unfortunately taken after DeRozan in his obsession with pull up mid rangers and aversion to 3's (similar rate and worse % than last season) and as much as DeRozan hampers their spacing and tanks their defense, he also shields them from getting exposed for not having another primary scorer/shot creator.

Only the recently started re-building Pistons and Magic have worse options under contract beyond this season.

More to shooting than 3 point shooting and he has shown improvement in his ability to find shots from the mid range and hit them. I don’t know what else to say there- his attempts from 16 feet are substantially up and his efficiency in the lane but outside the restricted area is much improved from last year. Big agree dejounte needs to find the rack more instead of settling though.

his 3 point rate is the same because his shot is still a work in progress and it’s not a primary point of focus of his game at this time. That doesn’t mean it never will be or he can’t improve though and the improvement he has shown as a shooter in general give some hope in that area.

He’s a 2 way guard that can give you 15 points on any given night at 24 years old. He’s not a perfect player but he’s far from a finished product, obviously.

Put it this way: if I go to a restaurant and ordered a steak and out came a broiled piece of leather- I don’t ask the bus boy what the hell happened or rip my waiter and tell them it’s unacceptable. I stop ordering food cooked by that chef. Demar derozan is the chef and pointing fingers at dejounte or any number of young players is... dumb.

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1378746850816188420?s=19

Pipedream of signing Jrue Holiday is over

[SpursStar]

The team is missing a young franchise talent, the young guys we have are certainly good complimentary pieces but I don’t think they are the type of talent to take a team to the next level. It’s unfortunate because any one of Cunningham, Suggs or Mobley would’ve been terrific gets and it just doesn’t seem likely we land any of them.

[GAustex]

The greatest coach/leader in NBA history (lol) cannot be that if he administers his franchise to the current state that is?

[Dex]

Good post OP...even if it makes me sad that these days we are counting Magic Numbers for draft picks instead of trying to make the playoffs or get the 1st seed.

[cd021]

Spurs' play of late definitely hasn't been encouraging.

0-1, with 25 games remaining.

With that being said, winning only six games out of those 25 still doesn't seem likely to me. So a top 8 pick without winning the lottery ball feels impossible at this point. The team would have to flat out quit in order for that to happen. They've been in it for the most part for these terrible losses. If they had been blowouts, I would be more convinced.

The point about the condensed schedule does play a factor.

We'll see how these remaining games go. I think it's interesting watching players like Rudy, DeMar, Mills get demolished on a consistent basis and still get playing time like they do.


vs Cavs
@ Nuggets
@ Nuggets
@ Mavs
@ Magic (b2b)
@ Raptors
vs Blazers
@ Suns (b2b)
@ Pacers
vs Heat
vs Pistons (b2b)
@ Pels
@ Wizards
@ Heat
@ Boston
vs Sixers
@ Jazz
@ Jazz
@ Kings
@ Blazers (b2b)
vs Bucks
@ Nets
@ Knicks (b2b)
vs Suns
vs Suns (b2b)

Tomorrow's game is probably the easiest one for the rest of the season. :rollin
Two other weakest games are both on b2b, Magic and Pistons.

There's not a single other game where we're the clear favorites. Noone other than those 3 teams is tanking.
Every home game except the Cavs and Pistons is against teams with a better record. Including two easier games, 4-4 at best, if that. Probably 2-6.
On the road? Magic, Raptors, Pacers, Pels, Wizards, Boston, Kings, Knicks should be winnable, but we're not the favorites. Which means we'll probably get like 2 or 3. 4-4 in those is best case scenario.

That leaves us with 9 more or less guaranteed Ls. Maybe we get 1 of those. 2 at best.

I can't see this team winning 10 more games and that would be the best case scenario. Anywhere between 5-20 and 8-17 seems realistic.

I also don't think its out of the question for the Spurs to finish worse than 8-17 over the last 25 with possible wins against the Cavs, Magic, Pistons, Wizards, @ Knicks and a couple of other toss-ups.

The biggest question marks are the Jazz and Suns double-headers and whether the Jazz are comfortably set as the 1 seed and taking their foot off the gas and whether the Suns are playing for the 1 seed or strategic seeding.

I think its conceivable that they actually fall short of 538's Raptor prediction of 33-39 mark. That could mean the 11th pick.

[Dejounte]

I also don't think its out of the question for the Spurs to finish worse than 8-17 over the last 25 with possible wins against the Cavs, Magic, Pistons, Wizards, @ Knicks and a couple of other toss-ups.

The biggest question marks are the Jazz and Suns double-headers and whether the Jazz are comfortably set as the 1 seed and taking their foot off the gas and whether the Suns are playing for the 1 seed or strategic seeding.

I think its conceivable that they actually fall short of 538's Raptor prediction of 33-39 mark. That could mean the 11th pick.

Weird to cling onto 538's Raptor prediction as if it's some infallible metric and also because I've shown you how it changes week to week. It could literally change again next week, so it wouldn't make sense to say "the Spurs could fall short of their prediction". Which prediction? The one they made two weeks before? Or the week before that?

[spurs1990]

I had a thought that Popovich must be playing the vets on purpose when their performance that game doesn't justify it.

His thought is if the Spurs keep losing it's better for these vets - Gay, DeRozan, Mills - to be on the court.
That's a psychological benefit to the young players who won't look at themselves as the reason for the losses.

That way next year when Gay and DeRozan are gone the young guys won't be affected by this season, be instilled with confidence, and ready to play winning ball.

The above is assuming Spurs fall out of contention and land a top 10 pick, who'll play a lot in 2022.

[TD 21]

More to shooting than 3 point shooting and he has shown improvement in his ability to find shots from the mid range and hit them. I don’t know what else to say there- his attempts from 16 feet are substantially up and his efficiency in the lane but outside the restricted area is much improved from last year. Big agree dejounte needs to find the rack more instead of settling though.

his 3 point rate is the same because his shot is still a work in progress and it’s not a primary point of focus of his game at this time. That doesn’t mean it never will be or he can’t improve though and the improvement he has shown as a shooter in general give some hope in that area.

He’s a 2 way guard that can give you 15 points on any given night at 24 years old. He’s not a perfect player but he’s far from a finished product, obviously.

Put it this way: if I go to a restaurant and ordered a steak and out came a broiled piece of leather- I don’t ask the bus boy what the hell happened or rip my waiter and tell them it’s unacceptable. I stop ordering food cooked by that chef. Demar derozan is the chef and pointing fingers at dejounte or any number of young players is... dumb.

Threes are far more important than mid rangers, he'll be 25 this year (sure, ACL wiped out a year and getting back to 100% took another, but still), has never shown an inclination to make 3s a significant part of his game and plays for an organization that's notorious for enabling this archaic behavior.

I'm not absolving or diminishing DeRozan's role in this, I'm just saying he's not alone and what's dumb is pretending otherwise.

In general, I'm sick of the cliche, trite ideology and bringing up the past when it comes to the youth. You do that when a team is undergoing a conventional re-build and has some high ceiling, early 20s prospects with superstar or star potential. What's going on here is diametrically opposed to that.

[cd021]

Weird to cling onto 538's Raptor prediction as if it's some infallible metric and also because I've shown you how it changes week to week. It could literally change again next week, so it wouldn't make sense to say "the Spurs could fall short of their prediction". Which prediction? The one they made two weeks before? Or the week before that?

I've been using that as a bench mark to get an idea of where they might fall, pick wise. It changes, though its been steady for a week or two now. Based on their remaining schedule, they're likely to fall under the 33-39 mark.

[Spurtacular]

Spurs record too good at this point. Just play for W's and let the chips fall.

[ace3g]

Spurs unfortunately have a realistic chance of being the 13th seed...

[spurs10]

Just fell out of top 8.

[KobesAchilles]

I think the Spurs are going to pull through and make the playoffs. I know that things look grim. Patty and Gay can’t play defense. White and Murray are getting cooked by every guard out there. And despite Demar’s heroics of carrying this team on his back, we are still losing. But Lonnie is coming back. We play better on the road anyways. There is a sense of urgency now that wasn’t always there before. And we still have the best coach in the NBA

[ace3g]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyLcOVmXMAQj750?format=png&name=large

[GAustex]

I think the Spurs are going to pull through and make the playoffs. I know that things look grim. Patty and Gay can’t play defense. White and Murray are getting cooked by every guard out there. And despite Demar’s heroics of carrying this team on his back, we are still losing. But Lonnie is coming back. We play better on the road anyways. There is a sense of urgency now that wasn’t always there before. And we still have the best coach in the NBA
nah

[gambit1990]

OP should be posting this here: https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=289107 (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=289107)

[bluebellmaniac]

OP should be posting this here: https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=289107 (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=289107)

Reading ST is like trying to talk to a bi-polar.person who keeps switching between being up and down. They want to tank for a better draft pick (and I understand how this would be the year to do it with no fans in the building anyway), but then get pissed when we play the worst defenders and the shooters who are cold at the end of the game.

Pick a position and then hold to it. Fricken bipolar fans want it both ways.

[NASpurs]

I think the Spurs are going to pull through and make the playoffs. I know that things look grim. Patty and Gay can’t play defense. White and Murray are getting cooked by every guard out there. And despite Demar’s heroics of carrying this team on his back, we are still losing. But Lonnie is coming back. We play better on the road anyways. There is a sense of urgency now that wasn’t always there before. And we still have the best coach in the NBA

Second hardest SOS, suspect depth, spotty defense, feast or famine offense, no rest of more than one day for the rest of the season, retarded coach.


Nah.

[Dejounte]

Spurs unfortunately have a realistic chance of being the 13th seed...

It's possible for the Warriors to overtake the Spurs, I suppose. They have a mega star on their team. They did just lose by 53 the other night. That's pretty bad.

The Kings seem to be on a roll and their chemistry is high.

I don't see the Pelicans moving past the Spurs. Their roster just doesn't fit together well.

The Thunder are trying to tank, I believe.

[TD 21]

Reading ST is like trying to talk to a bi-polar.person who keeps switching between being up and down. They want to tank for a better draft pick (and I understand how this would be the year to do it with no fans in the building anyway), but then get pissed when we play the worst defenders and the shooters who are cold at the end of the game.

Pick a position and then hold to it. Fricken bipolar fans want it both ways.

Even if you know it's better in the grand scheme of things, in the moment it's always difficult to hope your team does foolish things and loses.

[SpurPadre]

We're currently at 14th pick. Is 14th this year likely to be better than Vassell?

[GreekSpursfan]

If we lose to the Cavs then we're moving in the right direction. Play Mills more and let him chuck shots.

[mo7888]

We're currently at 14th pick. Is 14th this year likely to be better than Vassell?

I think it's still a little ro early to tell. There are a couple high upside guys still ranked lower than that but the board is still moving around a good bit.

[duncan2150]

If we lose to the Cavs then we're moving in the right direction.

I agree with that

People needs to see other teams, warriors are not great, so as sacramento, NO and i'm not sold on the Grizz... I still think spurs will be in the top 10 of the Western Conference but more 9 or 10.

Imo the most important thing to watch is East teams who are in Spurs range : actually, Atalanta, Charlotte ( difficult with ball and hayward out), miami, Boston, Ny and maybe Indiana... They all can past the Spurs and give us a better pick.


We're currently at 14th pick. Is 14th this year likely to be better than Vassell?

This draft is better than last year imo but i'm not sure about Vassell and the future 14th pick.

But i think this year 14th pick will be better than last year's 14th pick if you take the good player.

[Dejounte]

I agree with that

People needs to see other teams, warriors are not great, so as sacramento, NO and i'm not sold on the Grizz... I still think spurs will be in the top 10 of the Western Conference but more 9 or 10.

Imo the most important thing to watch is East teams who are in Spurs range : actually, Atalanta, Charlotte ( difficult with ball and hayward out), miami, Boston, Ny and maybe Indiana... They all can past the Spurs and give us a better pick.



This draft is better than last year imo but i'm not sure about Vassell and the future 14th pick.

But i think this year 14th pick will be better than last year's 14th pick if you take the good player.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is coming back this month so I think he could give the Grizzlies a nice boost.

[FutureMan]

This team needs an exciting franchise player. Interestingly enough, 90% of the time it is a player picked in the top 15.

[duncan2150]

Jaren Jackson Jr. is coming back this month so I think he could give the Grizzlies a nice boost.

I hope so, i prefer to see spurs winning but if we could land a good pick up that's better than nothing.

In fact Grizz are ahead of us today, it's more about other West teams that i talk... Grizz come last.

[cd021]

Jaren Jackson Jr. is coming back this month so I think he could give the Grizzlies a nice boost.
That could be tricky for them. But they could use a talent boost. Memphis has a pretty tough schedule too so I, not sure that they'll jump us. GSW might though, even after they got wrecked the other night.

[cd98]

Spurs have the 2nd toughest schedule for ROS. It looks brutal and they are playing a lot of teams that will have something to play for, so I anticipate losses will load up. The issue is not will they lose enough to not make the playoffs, the issue is will they lose enough that some other teams pass them up so Spurs have better odds of getting a lower draft pick. Probably doesn't happen if S.A. doesn't tank a little.

[ginobilized]

Don't forget an ill-timed injury (or well-timed injury, depending on perspective) would send the Spurs right down the drain.
Of, course, this could happen to some other teams as well. These last games are really just a countdown to the coaching record for Pop and next season's needed wins.
I wish we could win out and get it over with sooner. This might take until mid-season next year.

[Dejounte]

Wrong thread

[Dejounte]

0-2, 24 games left.

Can they win half of those 24 games?

If the Spurs are a sub .500 team, it's looking like the max they could win is 10 from those 24.

[bluebellmaniac]

Fade for Cade!

[Spurtacular]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvSdSlPrly4&ab_channel=KSLSports

[Twisted_Dawg]

Now that the team has officially quit on Greg Popovich, it is very realistic we free fall into the 4-6 range.

[duncan2150]

The bad is that Sacramento lose to Minny.

[rjv]

as bad as the spurs are right now, there are too many teams out there that are playing even (worse) until they play the spurs that is.

[JuneJive]

Embrace the tank.

It is time.

[NASpurs]

The upcoming b2b games against the Nuggets will be instrumental for the tank.

Actually looking ahead, they might not win again until the Magic game (?) and if they lose that one, until the Pistons game on the 22nd.

[Dejounte]

0-3, 23 games left

Top 9 looks locked in. Pelicans aren't going to stop losing. Ceiling for the Spurs is the 10th pick unless the Kings or Raptors turn around and start winning, then they can get that 9th.

[SpurPadre]

0-3, 23 games left

Top 9 looks locked in. Pelicans aren't going to stop losing. Ceiling for the Spurs is the 10th pick unless the Kings or Raptors turn around and start winning, then they can get that 9th.

Bulls have 9th right now and I'm not sure they're locked in.

[Dejounte]

Bulls have 9th right now and I'm not sure they're locked in.

I'm aware of that. You still have the other teams. Pelicans, Kings, and Raptors.

Wolves
Rockets
Pistons
Magic
Cavs
Wizards
Thunder

Are all locked in.

Then you have Kings, Raptors, and Pelicans. Pelicans will keep losing. That leaves the Raptors or the Kings for the 9th. I wasn't talking about the Bulls.

[slick'81]

The upcoming b2b games against the Nuggets will be instrumental for the tank.

Actually looking ahead, they might not win again until the Magic game (?) and if they lose that one, until the Pistons game on the 22nd.


Yea there isnt many winnable games left

[SpurPadre]

Raptors got 8th and probably won't go farther than that. Sac and the Peilicans are the major obstacles but I see the Kings going on a run. 10th is our best bet but it wouldn't be impossible to get 9th.

[slick'81]

So basically all this shitty season and were going to end up one selection better then last season

[SpurPadre]

So basically all this shitty season and were going to end up one selection better then last season

10th pick will probably be a more impact player than Vassell, tbh. It's something to be excited about, really.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

good game tonight boys

[exstatic]

So basically all this shitty season and were going to end up one selection better then last season

Well, they still have to draw the ping pong balls. In the two lotteries since they went to 4 draw spots and flattened the odds, 5 of the 8 draw spots went to teams outside the top 4 before the lottery.

[Dejounte]

0-4, 22 games left.

The bad:

Bulls lost.

The good:
Pelicans won.
Knicks won.
Pacers won.

Warriors game is still going, they're up 4.

How many games will they win with 22 games remaining? Did tonight's game give White confidence?

[Thomas82]

Hopefully the Warriors can pull it out tonight.

[BatManu20]

Man Spurs should’ve fully embraced the tank about a month ago. Could’ve had a real shot at a Top-5 pick and a real impactful player. After the top 5-6 picks, there’s a significant drop off in talent.

[duncan2150]

0-4, 22 games left.

The bad:

Bulls lost.

The good:
Pelicans won.
Knicks won.
Pacers won.

Warriors game is still going, they're up 4.

How many games will they win with 22 games remaining? Did tonight's game give White confidence?


So the warriors lose to the wizards.

Another bad is memphis losing.

Warriors and Pels could past us, imo sacramento would not. Indiana and Chicago with 1/2 game and 2.5 game behind us. Toronto and Okc looks far from us .

So i will say best pick possibility for sa will be 10th.

[Dejounte]

So the warriors lose to the wizards.

Another bad is memphis losing.

Warriors and Pels could past us, imo sacramento would not. Indiana and Chicago with 1/2 game and 2.5 game behind us. Toronto and Okc looks far from us .

So i will say best pick possibility for sa will be 10th.

Another way to look at it is which teams have something to play for?

Toronto will probably continue losing. Their team is likely to have a major shake-up this offseason. Lowry is gone, so they probably need a high draft pick to replace him. Free agency has options too - they could pay Schroder.

The Pacers are currently 9th seed and not far from 8th. I think they're going to keep trying to win all the way.

The Bulls have no pick of their own this year, so they're trying their best to win.

The Warriors are a confusing bunch. On one hand, they keep trotting out horrible line-ups out there in-game, and on the other, they say they're going to start playing Curry back to back. I'm leaning towards that they're trying to tank.

I believe the Pelicans are trying to win now since I forgot how much the NBA wants its new golden child to be in the playoffs. The problem is they SUCK.

I cannot figure out if the Kings are trying or not. They are trending the wrong direction though and might be in too deep of a hole already to get into the play-in.

So yeah, the wild cards are the Warriors and the Kings. If they both win and get past the Spurs = Spurs get 10th. If only one = Spurs get 11th. If neither = Spurs get 12th.

[Dejounte]

Man Spurs should’ve fully embraced the tank about a month ago. Could’ve had a real shot at a Top-5 pick and a real impactful player. After the top 5-6 picks, there’s a significant drop off in talent.

Disagree. The significant drop off in talent is after the 2nd pick. Cade and Mobley and then it's everyone else.

[mo7888]

Another way to look at it is which teams have something to play for?

Toronto will probably continue losing. Their team is likely to have a major shake-up this offseason. Lowry is gone, so they probably need a high draft pick to replace him. Free agency has options too - they could pay Schroder.

The Pacers are currently 9th seed and not far from 8th. I think they're going to keep trying to win all the way.

The Bulls have no pick of their own this year, so they're trying their best to win.

The Warriors are a confusing bunch. On one hand, they keep trotting out horrible line-ups out there in-game, and on the other, they say they're going to start playing Curry back to back. I'm leaning towards that they're trying to tank.

I believe the Pelicans are trying to win now since I forgot how much the NBA wants its new golden child to be in the playoffs. The problem is they SUCK.

I cannot figure out if the Kings are trying or not. They are trending the wrong direction though and might be in too deep of a hole already to get into the play-in.

So yeah, the wild cards are the Warriors and the Kings. If they both win and get past the Spurs = Spurs get 10th. If only one = Spurs get 11th. If neither = Spurs get 12th.

Why would the warriors tank? They don't own their pick this year so it doesn't benefit them at all?

[mo7888]

Disagree. The significant drop off in talent is after the 2nd pick. Cade and Mobley and then it's everyone else.

I think Kuminga is in that elite group too (but I get that others have him a spot or two lower). I think the draft is elite 1-3, very good 4-11, and average after that...

[Dejounte]

I think Kuminga is in that elite group too (but I get that others have him a spot or two lower). I think the draft is elite 1-3, very good 4-11, and average after that...

Funny, I was thinking of including him in there but decided against it. Maybe he should be in it. I agree with your tiers.

If I were being honest, I'd probably draft Kuminga over Mobley but only because I want to see a long swingman going toe to toe with the likes of Nephew, LeBron, Doncic.

[Dejounte]

Why would the warriors tank? They don't own their pick this year so it doesn't benefit them at all?

Huh? Yes, they do. Their pick is top 20 protected this year.

[mo7888]

Funny, I was thinking of including him in there but decided against it. Maybe he should be in it. I agree with your tiers.

If I were being honest, I'd probably draft Kuminga over Mobley but only because I want to see a long swingman going toe to toe with the likes of Nephew, LeBron, Doncic.

I would take Kuminga #2 as well.... I'm pretty high on him...

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Why would the warriors tank? They don't own their pick this year so it doesn't benefit them at all?

They do - it’s top 20 protected and then turns into a 2nd round pick.

[mo7888]

Huh? Yes, they do. Their pick is top 20 protected this year.

Good to know....I looked at the trade machine and it showed tbey didn't own it....

[BackHome]

Golden State could care less about draft picks right now they trying to win a Championships and that needs proven Vets that will need to be added to the team this summer.

[mo7888]

Golden State could care less about draft picks right now they trying to win a Championships and that needs proven Vets that will need to be added to the team this summer.

Maybe so....but there's a real argument that I'd they have those2 1st's that they could trade them along with salary to acquire win now vets...

[exstatic]

Houston and Minnesota are riding the razors edge. They’re well positioned, but their picks are scantily protected. Minny is 1-3 protected, and Hou is 1-4 protected. The past two drafts, 5 teams have jumped into those combined 8 drawn slots.

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/NBCSEdgeBK/status/1380924671961432066?s=19

[longhorn]

https://twitter.com/NBCSEdgeBK/status/1380924671961432066?s=19

And still put up 87 points in the first half :clap

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/KNBR/status/1381086266792407051?s=19

Warriors win tonight but ouch

[BatManu20]

Weisman out for the season with a torn meniscus. Warriors will go full tank now smh.

[timvp]

Weisman out for the season with a torn meniscus. Warriors will go full tank now smh.

Tbh, Wiseman was their tank commander. They'll be better without him.

[Dejounte]

It's been about ~6 games since this thread was made.

As of 4/11/21, the Spurs have a 25-26 record.

If all non-playoff teams follow their season WIN% for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/VVmTjkX/total-win-percentage.png

If all non-playoff teams follow their WIN% from the Last 10 games for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/4p6QvbR/L10-v2.png

Fun fact:

Every team's last 10 games has mostly remained the same with the exception of:

The Thunder and the Kings changed from their winning ways and are dropping like an anchor.

Previous L10 for Thunder = 4 W / 6 L. Now = 1 W / 9 L
Previous L10 for Kings = 7 W / 3 L. Now = 4 W / 6 L

The Celtics and the Raptors are starting to win more and are trending up.

Previous L10 for Celtics = 3 W / 7 L. Now = 7 W / 3 L
Previous L10 for Raptors = 1 W / 9 L. Now = 4 W / 6 L

I'm guessing it's going to be pick #12 for the Spurs when it's all said and done.

[timvp]

Good work, Dejounte.

I'm still early in my draft prep but it looks like you'll basically get the same level of player from about pick 6 to pick 16 or so. Thus, no real reason to tank right now. There's a razor thin margin starting at 6.

Might as well try to make the playoffs, tbh.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Good work, Dejounte (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=51342).

I'm still early in my draft prep but it looks like you'll basically get the same level of player from about pick 6 to pick 16 or so. Thus, no real reason to tank right now. There's a razor thin margin starting at 6.

Might as well try to make the playoffs, tbh.


Yeah. With the draft odds flattening, if the Spurs make the play-in at 9th or 10th place.. there is still a (very small) chance that they can get into the top 3 picks if the basketball gods favour them. Might as well push to get in to the play-in.

[duncan2150]

Good work, Dejounte (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=51342).

I'm still early in my draft prep but it looks like you'll basically get the same level of player from about pick 6 to pick 16 or so. Thus, no real reason to tank right now. There's a razor thin margin starting at 6.

Might as well try to make the playoffs, tbh.

I think you're right with the pick 6-16 with a lot of guys with tools and potential, the only thing if you go near the 16th pick is that you can forget some big potentials like Jalen Johnson or Scottie Barnes for example. Their ceilling especially Johnson looks a little bit better than some of pursuers.

[exstatic]

I think you're right with the pick 6-16 with a lot of guys with tools and potential, the only thing if you go near the 16th pick is that you can forget some big potentials like Jalen Johnson or Scottie Barnes for example. Their ceilling especially Johnson looks a little bit better than some of pursuers.

Jalen Johnson transferred from his HS in Wisconsin to IMG academy. Lasted 6 games. “Committed” to Duke, and lasted a whole 13 games. He’s a quitter, who also can’t shoot, one of those entitled AAU pricks.

[SpursDynasty85]

Good work, Dejounte (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=51342).

I'm still early in my draft prep but it looks like you'll basically get the same level of player from about pick 6 to pick 16 or so. Thus, no real reason to tank right now. There's a razor thin margin starting at 6.

Might as well try to make the playoffs, tbh.

Spurs have a position need. Has to 6’ 7” w:o shoes and a plus wingspan. IMO.

[exstatic]

Spurs have a position need. Has to 6’ 7” w:o shoes and a plus wingspan. IMO.

Should be easy to fill. You don’t even have basketball skills as a requirement. Does he have to be athletic?

[Dex]

Should be easy to fill. You don’t even have basketball skills as a requirement. Does he have to be athletic?

I have a MyPlayer on NBA2K17 which fits these requirements. Where do I sign up?

[SpursDynasty85]

Should be easy to fill. You don’t even have basketball skills as a requirement. Does he have to be athletic?

true but I responded to the post saying 6-16 was all similarly talented. I assume everyone in that range will meet my minimum skill and athleticism but would not meet my size requirement.

Edit: My preference to start is an athletic 3&D PF with decent lob threat skills.

[duncan2150]

Jalen Johnson transferred from his HS in Wisconsin to IMG academy. Lasted 6 games. “Committed” to Duke, and lasted a whole 13 games. He’s a quitter, who also can’t shoot, one of those entitled AAU pricks.

I know that and that's a big question mark with the shoot.
But I talk only about talent. I think He is ahead of a lot of players.

[R. DeMurre]

Minnesota's results in the draft have been so bad, & now it looks inevitable that they'll get another top 4 pick. And look where they are: their centerpiece Towns is a major defensive liability, and so far neither of their shooting guards (Okogie & Edwards) can shoot. Almost everybody else is gone. They're basically in lottery/rebuild mode after a decade plus of great draft positions. This is one area where the Spurs are still a superior force in the league.

[pad300]

I am not convinced that this draft is "flat" from 6-16. Hopefully we can ID the right guys and have them fall far enough...

[exstatic]

I know that and that's a big question mark with the shoot.
But I talk only about talent. I think He is ahead of a lot of players.

Spurs worry about more than that. Last guy I remember with Character red flags was KPJ, and he nearly dropped out of the first round. The flags turned out to be warranted. Cleveland dumped him part way into season 2 on his contact to one of the worst teams in the league, for a second rounder.

[exstatic]

Minnesota's results in the draft have been so bad, & now it looks inevitable that they'll get another top 4 pick. And look where they are: their centerpiece Towns is a major defensive liability, and so far neither of their shooting guards (Okogie & Edwards) can shoot. Almost everybody else is gone. They're basically in lottery/rebuild mode after a decade plus of great draft positions. This is one area where the Spurs are still a superior force in the league.

They can only get a top 3 pick. If it falls to 4, they lose it with the scant protections they have on it.

[Dejounte]

Point of emphasis for Spurs' development is the prospect's willingness to listen. If you're of poor character, you'll be less receptive to what the Spurs will want to teach you thus lowering your ceiling. Brian Wright said as much after drafting Tre and Devin last year noting their personalities.

Personality will be a huge tell when scouting 2021 prospects. It's why prospects like Greg Jones and Trendon Watford, IMO, are OUT.

[KobesAchilles]

Fuck character at this point, we need actual talent bc we lack it. We have a buncha C players and a B- player in DJ. Bc the youth ain't winning shit next year and the last thing we need is another young talent on this team. TBH I would love it if they trade this years pick and next year's pick to the Wolves for Towns. Give them whatever players they want too. It would give our team a sense of direction and be easier for our GM to build a team with the cap space we do have.

[bluebellmaniac]

It's been about ~6 games since this thread was made.

As of 4/11/21, the Spurs have a 25-26 record.

If all non-playoff teams follow their season WIN% for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/VVmTjkX/total-win-percentage.png

If all non-playoff teams follow their WIN% from the Last 10 games for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/4p6QvbR/L10-v2.png

Fun fact:

Every team's last 10 games has mostly remained the same with the exception of:

The Thunder and the Kings changed from their winning ways and are dropping like an anchor.

Previous L10 for Thunder = 4 W / 6 L. Now = 1 W / 9 L
Previous L10 for Kings = 7 W / 3 L. Now = 4 W / 6 L

The Celtics and the Raptors are starting to win more and are trending up.

Previous L10 for Celtics = 3 W / 7 L. Now = 7 W / 3 L
Previous L10 for Raptors = 1 W / 9 L. Now = 4 W / 6 L

I'm guessing it's going to be pick #12 for the Spurs when it's all said and done.


We have a good history with those ping pong balls... I'm placing my bet on a crazy ping pong and a top 4 pick. There, I said it!

[pad300]

Fuck character at this point, we need actual talent bc we lack it. We have a buncha C players and a B- player in DJ. Bc the youth ain't winning shit next year and the last thing we need is another young talent on this team. TBH I would love it if they trade this years pick and next year's pick to the Wolves for Towns. Give them whatever players they want too. It would give our team a sense of direction and be easier for our GM to build a team with the cap space we do have.

You think Towns is an A talent? How's that worked for Minny?

[KobesAchilles]

You think Towns is an A talent? How's that worked for Minny?
Im not a big fan of Towns tbh so if you want to shit on him and call him empty calories I’m fine with that. But failing in Minn isn’t a good reason to do so. The entire city sucks sports wise. Vikings have never won, Twins, and the Wolves. They have been shit their entire existence someone as good as KG, who is a top 20 player all time missed the playoffs 2 years in a row during his prime.

Towns has a lot of flaws in his game. He is a poor defender, he doesn’t bring it every night, and he has no idea how to lead. But if I’m going to have a flawed player anyway, I might as well have one that gets me 26 points a game instead of shitty flawed players like the ones we have. Plus we have a shit ton of guards, we have zero good big men

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/JMcDonald_SAEN/status/1381744463773642756?s=19

The Spurs are not going to win any lottery balls with Pop going after NBA owners :lmao

[cd98]

https://twitter.com/JMcDonald_SAEN/status/1381744463773642756?s=19

The Spurs are not going to win any lottery balls with Pop going after NBA owners :lmao

Pop engaging in cancel culture?

[Mr. Body]

Pop engaging in cancel culture?

I like how people have no fucking clue what words mean anymore.

[SpurPadre]

Welp, there goes the dream for a Top 10 pick.

[mo7888]

Welp, there goes the dream for a Top 10 pick.

I think there's a real chance we go 5-15 to close out the season... that should put us in the 9-12 range..

[SpurPadre]

I think there's a real chance we go 5-15 to close out the season... that should put us in the 9-12 range..

There's a chance but that Mavs win more likely is the dagger that killed it.

[JuneJive]

Weren't the Spurs interested in Bitadze?

I could really see them going for Sengun, who is a much better prospect.

[mo7888]

There's a chance but that Mavs win more likely is the dagger that killed it.

Could be...but look at the remaining schedule and see if you can find 6 teams we should beat... in my 5 wins I included winning at Indiana.... that's not a guaranteed win in itself...

[Prime BEEF]

Welp, there goes the dream for a Top 10 pick.
Yup

[duncan2150]

The very good : Spurs lose to Raptors

The good : Indiana wins, Gs wins,

The bad : Pels and Grizz lose, Also Charlotte with 3 L in a row and a lot of injured players.

We could also say that there's a big chance Chicago, Sacramento and the Raptors would be behind us in the standings with 5 GB or more.

[ginobilized]

And the free fall continues......
In the last 10 games 3 teams have a worse record than the Spurs: Houston, Sacramento and OKC

In that same span, 3 teams have as bad a record as the Spurs: Cleveland, Orlando and Chicago

That 10th spot will very likely come down to Spurs/Pelicans barring something unforeseen. We have 18 games to play and the 2nd hardest schedule. NO and SAC have 16 games left each and the 9th and 16th hardest schedules.

[Dejounte]

It's been about ~13 games since the last update was made.

As of 5/04/21, the Spurs have a 31-33 record.

If all non-playoff teams follow their season WIN% for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/5L24jW8/season-win.png

If all non-playoff teams follow their WIN% from the Last 10 games for the remaining games:

https://i.ibb.co/7QhDDq3/L10.png


There are eight games left.

The Spurs would have to lose all eight games AND hope the Kings + Raptors (assumes Pelicans and Pacers win games, too) win games in order to get a 8th or 9th pick.

The Pelicans and the Pacers are what stands in the way of a 10th or 11th pick. In this scenario, the Spurs cannot win more than 1-2 games. The Spurs cannot count on the Pelicans to win any games because they're awful. The Pacers look competent and are hanging on to get in the play-in tournament.

The Hornets and Wizards are both on a roll.

My prediction of Spurs range:

11th to 15th pick

[james evans]

if I'm an agent of a kid that's gonna be a lottery pick, I don't want him in San antonio as long as popovich is around.

[cd021]

I think they'll end up with the 12th pick tbh

[R. DeMurre]

Current Tankathon Mock Draft order:

11. Moses Moody
12. James Bouknight
13. Alperen Sengun
14. Franz Wagner
15. Isiah Jacson
16. Josh Giddey

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Current Tankathon Mock Draft order:

11. Moses Moody
12. James Bouknight
13. Alperen Sengun
14. Franz Wagner
15. Isiah Jacson
16. Josh Giddey

I actually like Giddey quite a bit. Another Australian to join Patty's coffee crew.

[look_at_g_shred]

Giddey>Ben Simmons

[exstatic]

Giddey>Ben Simmons

Uh no. Not now, not when Ben was a draft candidate.

[The Truth #6]

I like Giddey in theory because of his passing that we need desperately, but he probably will get picked too high and we will see who drops to us, or who we reach for. This draft seems less predictable to me than last year.

A player I’m trying to get up to speed on is Moses Moody. I feel Bouknight (sic) will be gone but Moody might be still there.