How long does it take for you to consider a player a bust?

[KobesAchilles]

These kids are coming in younger and younger and knowing less and less. The college game is killing the NBA in this regard where legit good coaches, Roy Williams, Coach K, Bill Self, they aren't worried about coaching anymore bc they know these kids are just going to leave the next year. My question though is how long does it take for you to consider our draft picks a bust?

Here are the last 4 first round draft picks for the Spurs
Devin Vassell
Luka Samanic
Keldon Johnson
Lonnie Walker


Just going off that list, there aren't that many misses. At first glance, you can see the talent and the tools for all of them and why it is we drafted them. But delving deeper, either the way they are being coached, to the way they are being used, or their personalities/injuries, there might not be as many hits as you think.

Devin Vassell looks like a bust as of now. He is lost, doesn't have a go to skill, and seems shaken mentally both on offense and defense. These are normal rookie symptoms btw that all rookies face, not just Devin. But due to lack of playing time in the beginning of the year, he is having to overcome and face these obstacles at the worst possible moment, while we are fighting for a playoff spot. These games where he starts and scores 4 points and makes zero threes and over trys on defense should've been well behind him, if he would've gotten some playing time. Is it bad coaching? Is it Devin shrinking to the moment? Will he overcome it after reps or will he always just be this type of player? We don't know. But is it fair to start asking, is Devin Vassell a bust?

Luka Sammich is another player who looks like a bust. He has his supporters of course who say that he should be starting (I'm one of them). But he is barely getting any minutes while a teammate of his who is the same age, picked in the same draft, but 10 slots after him looks like a steal. Luka has some talent, he has some athleticism to him that we desperately need. But he seems weak mentally, he shies from contact of big men, and he doesn't seem to be fully bought into the Spurs way of business yet. Well, at least that's how it looks from the outside in where Pop is starting 2 players his age and barely playing him. Can he get consistent playing time? Can he develop a consistent shot? Can he be tough on the boards? I don't know. But after 2 years is it fair to ask, is Luka Sammich a bust?

Keldon Johnson. By definition Keldon can't be a bust since he was the 29th pick in the draft. What 29th pick can ever be considered a bust? These are fair points. But can he develop a 3 point shot? Or is this all he will become? Bc as he is now, he belongs as a bench player. He brings good energy and hustle and attitude. But he is small for his position, a step slow on defense, and gun shy to say the least when open for a jumper. These can all be taught and learned by him. Defense is about positioning and knowing where to be, size can be overcome with grit and strength, and a 3pointer can be developed. If this is the peak Keldon Johnson, a 10-12 ppg bench player who hustles and brings energy then that in itself is a steal for a 29th pick. But a lot of people have all star expectations for him. And in that sense, is it fair to start asking, is Keldon Johnson a bust?

Lonnie Walker is a player who boggles the mind to watch. He is so smooth and athletic and lightning quick. But he gets in his own head too often, is chicken one day and feathers the next. One day he has aggression and the next he scores 3 points. He gets to the rim with ease and has no idea what to do when he gets there. He is lost half the time on both defense and offense. He is a player that nobody knows how to evaluate since he has all the tools and skills needed to be great, but for some reason it just doesn't translate to greatness. He is up for an extension soon, but do we even want to give him one? Or should we just look for his replacement? Is he a starter or is he a bench player? Can he be consistent? Can he take the net leap forward? Do we have a star player or is it fair to ask, is Lonnie Walker a bust?

[R. DeMurre]

That's a really tough call. I think you have to take it on a case by case basis. Some people considered Julius Randle an underachiever until this season, his 7th. Same with Kyle Anderson, also in his 7th season.

[MannyIsGod]

None of those 4 are even close to a bust.

[exstatic]

That's a really tough call. I think you have to take it on a case by case basis. Some people considered Julius Randle an underachiever until this season, his 7th. Same with Kyle Anderson, also in his 7th season.
Naw, Julius played well in NO.

I give players their rookie contract duration. I think bust is also subjective, dependent on draft position. A PF gets drafted #20, and produces 10/6. Not a bust. Same player drafted at #2? Bust.

[R. DeMurre]

I think the issue with those four is that they're all potentially going to play above the spots where they were drafted, but it's still not clear if that means they're going to be significantly net positive players or not. Bryn Forbes played well beyond his expectations as an undrafted player, but he still didn't help the Spurs become a top team again. Lonnie seems to be absolutely oozing with potential, but through three years his on court impact numbers are pretty horrible.

[Trill Clinton]

A year for me tbh. I'm confident that Luka is a G League All-Star and nothing more. The whole "Pop is holding him back" stuff is funny because when he does see the floor he looks lost and just runs around setting screens on ghosts.

[4lifecowboy]

I believe Pop handling of players play a role in the pace of their development. Lonnie has the most potential of all the young guys yet he hasn't put him in a position to grow, force responsibility on him, live with his mistakes. He brought White along like that, why not Walker?

[exstatic]

I believe Pop handling of players play a role in the pace of their development. Lonnie has the most potential of all the young guys yet he hasn't put him in a position to grow, force responsibility on him, live with his mistakes. He brought White along like that, why not Walker?

White was 23, with 4 years of college under his belt. Lonnie played one seaSon, and scored 11 ppg, with almost no other impact.

[duncan2150]

The closest player to a bust was samanic, you can cleary talk about a bust last year but he was young and now he starts to shows some nice things. I still think he has a long way to go but that's good to see some improvement.

The others are not busts for me, even if they don't succeed that much. Walker could be really good, he's better year after year imo, needs to improve a lot of areas but he showed really good things this year. Johnson looks pretty good.

Vassell it's year 1, let's wait a little bit.

For the question, i go with 2-3 years minimum.

[Dejounte]

Depends on what your expectations are.

If you're expecting them to be solid role players, then that's a fair expectation and in no way most of them are busts.

If you were thinking they're going to be all-stars, then those are pretty high expectations and good for you for believing so. People are free to have their own opinions.

It's the ones who obsessively post about a single player being a bust that makes me laugh :lmao

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

Naw, Julius played well in NO.

I give players their rookie contract duration. I think bust is also subjective, dependent on draft position. A PF gets drafted #20, and produces 10/6. Not a bust. Same player drafted at #2? Bust.

great answer!!!

barring injuries usually the duration of their rookie deals is decent enough time to really see what the player has to give. Of course there are exceptions to that rule but usually those players have or had injuries or having unstable coaching/team dynamics

[duncan2150]

Depends on what your expectations are.

If you're expecting them to be solid role players, then that's a fair expectation and in no way most of them are busts.

If you were thinking they're going to be all-stars, then those are pretty high expectations and good for you for believing so. People are free to have their own opinions.



+1

[Joseph Kony]

all of those guys are going to be/already are rotation level guys in the NBA and considering only Vassell was a "lotto" pick, that's a fairly impressive feat. but in general you can't really call a player a bust until at least the end of the rookie deal, or maybe until they're like 25ish, depending on how old they were when drafted. even then there are late bloomers who end up excelling years later after going to good franchises. in any case i wouldnt consider any of the Spurs you listed busts, certainly not Keldon or Lonnie

[baseline bum]

These kids are coming in younger and younger and knowing less and less. The college game is killing the NBA in this regard where legit good coaches, Roy Williams, Coach K, Bill Self, they aren't worried about coaching anymore bc they know these kids are just going to leave the next year. My question though is how long does it take for you to consider our draft picks a bust?

Here are the last 4 first round draft picks for the Spurs
Devin Vassell
Luka Samanic
Keldon Johnson
Lonnie Walker


Just going off that list, there aren't that many misses. At first glance, you can see the talent and the tools for all of them and why it is we drafted them. But delving deeper, either the way they are being coached, to the way they are being used, or their personalities/injuries, there might not be as many hits as you think.

Devin Vassell looks like a bust as of now. He is lost, doesn't have a go to skill, and seems shaken mentally both on offense and defense. These are normal rookie symptoms btw that all rookies face, not just Devin. But due to lack of playing time in the beginning of the year, he is having to overcome and face these obstacles at the worst possible moment, while we are fighting for a playoff spot. These games where he starts and scores 4 points and makes zero threes and over trys on defense should've been well behind him, if he would've gotten some playing time. Is it bad coaching? Is it Devin shrinking to the moment? Will he overcome it after reps or will he always just be this type of player? We don't know. But is it fair to start asking, is Devin Vassell a bust?

Luka Sammich is another player who looks like a bust. He has his supporters of course who say that he should be starting (I'm one of them). But he is barely getting any minutes while a teammate of his who is the same age, picked in the same draft, but 10 slots after him looks like a steal. Luka has some talent, he has some athleticism to him that we desperately need. But he seems weak mentally, he shies from contact of big men, and he doesn't seem to be fully bought into the Spurs way of business yet. Well, at least that's how it looks from the outside in where Pop is starting 2 players his age and barely playing him. Can he get consistent playing time? Can he develop a consistent shot? Can he be tough on the boards? I don't know. But after 2 years is it fair to ask, is Luka Sammich a bust?

Keldon Johnson. By definition Keldon can't be a bust since he was the 29th pick in the draft. What 29th pick can ever be considered a bust? These are fair points. But can he develop a 3 point shot? Or is this all he will become? Bc as he is now, he belongs as a bench player. He brings good energy and hustle and attitude. But he is small for his position, a step slow on defense, and gun shy to say the least when open for a jumper. These can all be taught and learned by him. Defense is about positioning and knowing where to be, size can be overcome with grit and strength, and a 3pointer can be developed. If this is the peak Keldon Johnson, a 10-12 ppg bench player who hustles and brings energy then that in itself is a steal for a 29th pick. But a lot of people have all star expectations for him. And in that sense, is it fair to start asking, is Keldon Johnson a bust?

Lonnie Walker is a player who boggles the mind to watch. He is so smooth and athletic and lightning quick. But he gets in his own head too often, is chicken one day and feathers the next. One day he has aggression and the next he scores 3 points. He gets to the rim with ease and has no idea what to do when he gets there. He is lost half the time on both defense and offense. He is a player that nobody knows how to evaluate since he has all the tools and skills needed to be great, but for some reason it just doesn't translate to greatness. He is up for an extension soon, but do we even want to give him one? Or should we just look for his replacement? Is he a starter or is he a bench player? Can he be consistent? Can he take the net leap forward? Do we have a star player or is it fair to ask, is Lonnie Walker a bust?

Bend over. I'll show you how long it takes for a player to bust.

[KobesAchilles]

Bend over. I'll show you how long it takes for a player to bust.
:lol

[Dex]

Depends on expectations, tbh.

Guys like Duncan and Robinson were and should be expected to come in and produce right away.

Still, people wanted to call Tim Duncan a bust after he got punked by Greg Ostertag in Summer League. We all saw how that worked out.

For a lottery pick, I would say 2-3 years in the current system is reasonable to reach their "draft potential". For late-first rounders and beyond, I'd give them a couple more years, but you obviously aren't expecting All-Star talent that deep anyways.

I think Murray is a great example. Rookie treatment first year, lost a year due to injury....in year 5 he is really blossoming, but I still think he is close to his ceiling and would be surprised if he busts through into All-Star category.

[duncan2k5]

Keldon isn't small for his position... He is small for the position Pop plays him in... Keldon is a 2/3...That's what he has always played until Pop started doing this warped version of small ball where he thinks you literally have to put small players in positions that they're not designed to play... Even Derozan was a 2 until he came to san Antonio and started to play the 4... That's just silly ... Pop would have probably played dwyane wade at the 4 too, just like keldon

[james evans]

You have to look at how players are doing under Popovich and how they do when they get from under him. Popovich is in his goddamn 70s and refuse to change his ways and play the right individuals with each other. he continues to use HIS FAVORITE rotations until they work, and most of the time they never do. How often 5 years ago were we complaining about the west/diaw/mills/Anderson lineup? Did he ever stop that bullshit? Hell no.. He's gonna keep doing this nonsense that he knows isn't working, until it one day works and people can call him a genius for it.

[R. DeMurre]

Naw, Julius played well in NO.

I give players their rookie contract duration. I think bust is also subjective, dependent on draft position. A PF gets drafted #20, and produces 10/6. Not a bust. Same player drafted at #2? Bust.

Totally agree-- Randle put up good numbers before. But he wasn't considered a max guy & wasn't hearing chants of "MVP, MVP" while shooting free throws. This is the first season where he has really reached the heights of a true all star.

[exstatic]

Totally agree-- Randle put up good numbers before. But he wasn't considered a max guy & wasn't hearing chants of "MVP, MVP" while shooting free throws. This is the first season where he has really reached the heights of a true all star.

:lol NY fans are so starved, they would chant those things about DeRozan.

[R. DeMurre]

:lol NY fans are so starved, they would chant those things about DeRozan.

:lol

[PrimeMinister]

In most situations I’d let them play out their rookie deal.

“bust” is such a nebulous term that is a moving target depending on the player in question it’s hard to give one answer that isn’t boring and long.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

:lol NY fans are so starved, they would chant those things about DeRozan.

ouch


but true

[RC_Drunkford]

I don't think you can consider low first rounders busts tbh. As for those guys, they have to show significant improvement in year 4. Cause with Pop it's like this

Year 1: they stuck in the G-League
Year 2: They sitting on the bench getting almost no playing time behind washed up vets
Year 3: regular bench player

So yeah, year 4 is where they have to show they belong

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

:lol NY fans are so starved, they would chant those things about DeRozan.

And I think they may have their chance if my crystal ball is working properly.

[exstatic]

I don't think you can consider low first rounders busts tbh. As for those guys, they have to show significant improvement in year 4. Cause with Pop it's like this

Year 1: they stuck in the G-League
Year 2: They sitting on the bench getting almost no playing time behind washed up vets
Year 3: regular bench player

So yeah, year 4 is where they have to show they belong

I would say that there are very few ways that a late first rounder can be a bust, but one that comes to mind is OKC’s Josh Huestis. There are enough second rounders who make it so that as a late first rounder, you’re a bust if you prove to not even be an NBA player.

[KobesAchilles]

So the consensus around here is that Sammich is a bust and that Lonnie Walker is well on his way to not getting a new contract here. So a bust from that standpoint

[jjspur]

Drafting isn't an exact science. We get to see these guys play for a season or two in college or overseas and then make a pick based on what 25 -40 games ? ( I hate 1 and dones). All NBA players have some "talent". What they don't all have is ambition, confidence, drive and to a lesser extent good coaching to make them better players. Take Frank Kaminsky for example, he was pretty good in college, was almost traded for like 4 draft picks but is now an end of the bench player. Talent is just not enough sometimes. The NBA is a business and GM's have to be realistic about what these players can do for the team.

Murray and White have proven that they were pretty much worth the investment. Lonnie has his ups and downs but you know he is a legit NBA player who can average 14 points per game. KJ is the investment that keeps on giving back. We didn't get a steal...we got really lucky that some other team didn't draft him before us as he was considered a mid first round pick. Vassell has talents that will become more apparent as he gets more experience. Luka is a head scratcher. He wasn't anything close to a star , just a tall guy who had some potential on a middling euro team. I see him having some talent but not a whole lot of motivation or drive to be better. He is young still, but time may run out on him sooner rather than later if he doesn't up his game real soon.

In pop's world talent is just part of the equation and you earn your playing time based on the other things as well. I'm sure he's had that conversation with all the young spurs players, some just listened better than others.

Is Luka a bust.. well just ask Frank Kaminsky what happens if you don't up your game.

[TD 21]

It varies on a case by case basis depending on the context (what pick, how much experience/physical maturation, durability, opportunity, etc.), but you can usually get a sense of which direction things are likely headed in relatively soon.

Of the four mentioned . . .

- Walker IV: Not headed for bust status based on where he was picked, but longevity with the franchise.

- Samanic: Headed for bust status period. Less table franchises would already verge on cutting bait. Barring significant progress this off season, it's possible they decline his 4th year option.

- Johnson: Obviously not a bust in any sense.

- Vassell: Despite recent struggles, no reason to think he won't be a long term fixture. But he'll also never look as valuable as he projects on a team this lacking in talent.

[exstatic]

It varies on a case by case basis depending on the context (what pick, how much experience/physical maturation, durability, opportunity, etc.), but you can usually get a sense of which direction things are likely headed in relatively soon.

Of the four mentioned . . .

- Walker IV: Not headed for bust status based on where he was picked, but longevity with the franchise.

- Samanic: Headed for bust status period. Less table franchises would already verge on cutting bait. Barring significant progress this off season, it's possible they decline his 4th year option.

- Johnson: Obviously not a bust in any sense.

- Vassell: Despite recent struggles, no reason to think he won't be a long term fixture. But he'll also never look as valuable as he projects on a team this lacking in talent.

Lonnie, imo, is closer to being a bust than Luka. He’s just way too fucking timid. Luka looks to attack, something that would make Lonnie a borderline All Star. Instead, he passes the ball away almost every time. I also think most posters understood tha based on his age and the scrubby league he came from that Luka was a two year development project. We’re coming up on the end of year two.

[K...]

by spurs fans standards you either have to earn a championship or be a beloved role player to escape bust status, so guys like anthony davis were a bust until lebron became his Dad, damian lillard is a bust, westbrook is a bust, etc

whereas in the real sense a bust is a player who does not get an second contract or fails in two separate teams. So ian Mahinimi is not a bust but just by a hair.

Also spurs fans says "bust" when what they mean is "i expect the team to overplay young players to inflate their stats" yeah Lonnie could get over 20ppg on a bad team in east. Lot's of guys can.

[TD 21]

Lonnie, imo, is closer to being a bust than Luka. He’s just way too fucking timid. Luka looks to attack, something that would make Lonnie a borderline All Star. Instead, he passes the ball away almost every time. I also think most posters understood tha based on his age and the scrubby league he came from that Luka was a two year development project. We’re coming up on the end of year two.

The difference is, Walker IV's combination of already credible 3-point shooting combined with his freakish athleticism should at the very least mean he's in the league for a while as minimally a borderline rotation player.

If Samanic can't get his 3-point shooting to at least that level (which will set up his dribble drive an ancillary play making) he's not an NBA player period.

I'm not saying his progress has been unexpected, I'm just saying a significant leap has to occur this off season. You only get so long to prove you're an NBA player.

[exstatic]

The difference is, Walker IV's combination of already credible 3-point shooting combined with his freakish athleticism should at the very least mean he's in the league for a while as minimally a borderline rotation player.

If Samanic can't get his 3-point shooting to at least that level (which will set up his dribble drive an ancillary play making) he's not an NBA player period.

I'm not saying his progress has been unexpected, I'm just saying a significant leap has to occur this off season. You only get so long to prove you're an NBA player.

Sammich’s current lack of a knockdown three doesn’t seem to be inhibiting his dribble drive game. As for freakish athleticism, Lonnie is 6’4” with a 40” vert. Luka is 6’10” with a 38” vert.

[TD 21]

Sammich’s current lack of a knockdown three doesn’t seem to be inhibiting his dribble drive game. As for freakish athleticism, Lonnie is 6’4” with a 40” vert. Luka is 6’10” with a 38” vert.

Yeah because he plays sparingly, mostly in garbage time and the reality is no one prepares for him and most players probably aren't even all that familiar with him and just see a big, white, European guy and presume he can shoot. That would change if he played more frequently.

Samanic is athletic/mobile for a four (who unlike many today, is not a converted three), but Walker IV is athletic/mobile period.

[RC_Drunkford]

So the consensus around here is that Sammich is a bust and that Lonnie Walker is well on his way to not getting a new contract here. So a bust from that standpoint

Nah. Lonnie will have to show that he took a leap next season. Samanic still has 2 years to go.

[KobesAchilles]

Should’ve added a 5th option to the Poll. After seeing these Jazz games, get Lonnie outta here. Yikes. Also Poeltl is a bust but we didn’t draft him so that’s on Toronto

[Gagnrath]

Should’ve added a 5th option to the Poll. After seeing these Jazz games, get Lonnie outta here. Yikes. Also Poeltl is a bust but we didn’t draft him so that’s on Toronto

Poeltl is under performing his draft position but not greatly,. He is a legit backup borderline starter at this point that may get his jumpshot and 15 footer to decent levels sometimes. The guy won't be worth his draft position but not horribly underperforming it doesn't put him down at bust. It makes him a solid NBA player that didn't quite make his potential.

[rankingtear]

My definition of bust

- Picked in the top 20 - because on average 20 players from a draft class make it as rotation players in the NBA
- Waived or Dumped before the 4 year rookie contract expires

Spurs last bust is James Anderson. Potential bust is Samanic if he does not figure out his offense. But you can't really cut your losses on Luka because the payout is a 1-5 switch defender.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Poeltl is under performing his draft position but not greatly,. He is a legit backup borderline starter at this point that may get his jumpshot and 15 footer to decent levels sometimes. The guy won't be worth his draft position but not horribly underperforming it doesn't put him down at bust. It makes him a solid NBA player that didn't quite make his potential.

He really isn't underperforming his draft position. If anything him being a solid starter is overperforming it. More 9th picks end up as bench players than starters, for reference the player drafted at 9 in the previous to Poeltl's draft was Frank Kaminsky and after Poeltl- Dennis Smith Jr.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-pick-expectations