South Carolina becomes the second state to cancel federal unemployment benefits

[ducks]

https://www.yahoo.com/money/south-carolina-cancels-federal-unemployment-benefits-212914813.html

Get off you lazy butts and get to work

[Winehole23]

https://www.yahoo.com/money/south-carolina-cancels-federal-unemployment-benefits-212914813.html

Get off you lazy butts and get to workThe free market hates it when employees have liberty/clout to negotiate.

Why is that?

[ElNono]

Cancel culture...

[Winehole23]

ducks forgot to think of the children

1390655960981573635

[Winehole23]

lot of noise about this Op-Ed

1390413840165244933

[boutons_deux]

https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/gQuufYgPu56HkyGDWA112GTlyZpBz-QLDYWdOqyylNA30JjD67NK0ibaeHYDkL04OjwuQirrKLwRxRHP UqLmJXXn3yWCaNnH7uvBGFl-BSxabJRvICw67qWEEjvF_zDMpfS9-VzLu2DFwwttdCuI4L8vY1veGZ0FdTAxrs8PT2ZXL6rIf5YhcvR pTZNG05gnY8ey5fK2C9LVHg=s0-d-e1-ft#https://graphics.axios.com/hermes/2021-05-07-1245-total-nonfarm-payrolls/fallbacks/2021-05-07-1245-total-nonfarm-payrolls-fallback.png

[boutons_deux]

lot of noise about this Op-Ed

1390413840165244933

Cathy Merrill has a fantasy about idealized corporate culture in cubicle land, or in open plan plan.

80 percent of Americans don't like their jobs

https://www.wmar2news.com/lifestyle/80-percent-of-americans-dont-like-their-jobs

[Winehole23]

https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/gQuufYgPu56HkyGDWA112GTlyZpBz-QLDYWdOqyylNA30JjD67NK0ibaeHYDkL04OjwuQirrKLwRxRHP UqLmJXXn3yWCaNnH7uvBGFl-BSxabJRvICw67qWEEjvF_zDMpfS9-VzLu2DFwwttdCuI4L8vY1veGZ0FdTAxrs8PT2ZXL6rIf5YhcvR pTZNG05gnY8ey5fK2C9LVHg=s0-d-e1-ft#https://graphics.axios.com/hermes/2021-05-07-1245-total-nonfarm-payrolls/fallbacks/2021-05-07-1245-total-nonfarm-payrolls-fallback.pngnew jobs projections were overshot in April


The 266,000 jobs that U.S. firms added in April give Federal Reserve policymakers little reason to do anything but keep the monetary policy tap wide open until it is clear the economy is on a path back to full employment.
The unemployment rate rose to 6.1% and remains well above the 3.5% it reached in the months before the pandemic, the Friday report showed. Just 57.9% of the population was working, the report showed, well short of 61.1% as of February 2020. And the economy is still short more than 8 million jobs compared to its pre-crisis level.
A Reuters poll of economists had predicted the economy would add 978,000 jobs in April.
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-jobs/feds-super-easy-policy-likely-to-stick-after-weak-jobs-report-idUSL1N2MU0K5

[Winehole23]

maybe some people are finding things do that are more fulfilling than work.

if so, more power to them.

[boutons_deux]

RIPPING OFF WORKERS WITHOUT CONSEQUENCES

Already battered by long shifts and high infection rates, essential workers struggling through the pandemic face another hazard of hard times: employers who steal their wages.

When a recession hits, U.S. companies are more likely to stiff their lowest-wage workers.

These businesses often pay less than the minimum wage,

make employees work off the clock, or

refuse to pay overtime rates.

In the most egregious cases, bosses don’t pay their employees at all.

In 2019 alone, the agency cited about 8,500 employers for taking about $287 million from workers.

Major U.S. corporations are some of the worst offenders.

Their victims toil on the lower rungs of the workforce.

Companies have little incentive to follow the law.

https://publicintegrity.org/inequality-poverty-opportunity/workers-rights/cheated-at-work/ripping-off-workers-with-no-consequences

[Winehole23]

The US Chamber Commerce is basically admitting that American business can't compete with (publicly provided) starvation wages.

1390676694634139650

[DMX7]

April job numbers were awful for an economy that is supposed to be roaring to recovery.

[Winehole23]

tl;dr

supply and demand


“Why are Job Openings so hard to fill?”


Start with the pandemic externality (https://ritholtz.com/2020/04/end-of-the-secular-bull-not-so-fast/) making this a rather unusual cycle. But it is a lot more than that: On the high end of technical + technology workers, we have a shortage of people with the right skills and education for those jobs. At the low end you have wages that have simply lagged for decades, and reached the point where they are too low for most Americans. These used to be filled regularly by immigrants (https://www.ncsl.org/research/immigration/snapshot-of-u-s-immigration-2017.aspx) and non-citizens, but their numbers have fallen over the past few years. You can’t blame all of this on Trump — it goes back further than that as deportations (https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/trump-deportations-unfinished-mission) peaked under Obama in 2013 (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/20/key-findings-about-u-s-immigrants/). The mix of restricted immigration and increased deportations has created shortages at the lower end of the labor market.


If the Demand for workers is there, why hasn’t the supply caught up yet? The short answer is Price. Employers have been reluctant to raise wages. This is classic problem where buyers and sellers get anchored on some past level, failing to keep up with the realities of markets.2


The old trader cliché “More Buyers than Sellers” often omits the phrase “at this price level.” 3 For any trade to occur there must always be at least one seller for each buyer (and vice versa); once there are no more sellers at a specific price level, if you want to find more stock for sale, you must look at higher price levels.


After several decades of lagging prices for low wage labor, I believe what we are witnessing is something very similar. THERE IS NO MORE LABOR FOR SALE AT $7/HOUR; so the price moves up. Once it moves up high enough so that supply matches with demand, you get a stabilization at that level.


In this morning’s reads (https://ritholtz.com/2021/05/10-thursday-am-reads-337/) was this Pittsburgh Business Times (https://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2021/05/04/how-local-companies-are-filling-open-roles.html) on a few stores that cracked the code for finding workers: The TL:DR was they doubled their starting wages from $7.25 an hour to $15 an hour. Instead of getting a few applicants per position, half of whom wouldn’t show for the interview, they got 1,000s: “It was instant, overnight. We got thousands of applications that poured in. [And, it led to getting] quality work from people when they know that they are going to make a good paycheck.”
https://ritholtz.com/2021/05/finding-it-hard-to-hire-try-raising-your-wages/

[Millennial_Messiah]

I am firmly in the pro-WFH camp, whatever side or place in the political circle/donut (I believe the "political spectrum" should be thrown out as it's more round than linear).


April job numbers were awful for an economy that is supposed to be roaring to recovery.

Thanks Joe Biden. :tu

[ducks]

Cathy Merrill has a fantasy about idealized corporate culture in cubicle land, or in open plan plan.

80 percent of Americans don't like their jobs

https://www.wmar2news.com/lifestyle/80-percent-of-americans-dont-like-their-jobs



Yes lots are lazy want handouts
Boutons included

[RandomGuy]

maybe some people are finding things do that are more fulfilling than work.

if so, more power to them.

Fuck yeah. Americans work more, and take home less than anyone in Europe, after you factor in health care/insurance, which costs us twice what every other country pays per capita.

[RandomGuy]

April job numbers were awful for an economy that is supposed to be roaring to recovery.

Employers opening bids were too low. Number of openings is more than healthy, but what is out there is not attracting applicants.

There appears to have been something of a re-alignment of the economy that I don't think anyone has quite figured out yet.

[Winehole23]

Employers opening bids were too low. Number of openings is more than healthy, but what is out there is not attracting applicants.

There appears to have been something of a re-alignment of the economy that I don't think anyone has quite figured out yet.When businesses suddenly laid off 30 million people last March and April, they all had time to think about it. So did the retailers, delivery drivers, cashiers, stockers and line cooks who suddenly had some of the most dangerous jobs in America.

Should our heroic essential workers continue to work for the same pittance and shittly work conditions they had before?

It's understandable that a lot of people have decided not to reapply or took their talents elsewhere, tbh.

[Winehole23]

hmm

1392484664678354947 (https://twitter.com/Public_Citizen/status/1392484664678354947?s=20)

[Winehole23]

"would you consider working for free?"




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1MamfrUUAUstod?format=jpg&name=small

[ElNono]

hmm

1392484664678354947 (https://twitter.com/Public_Citizen/status/1392484664678354947?s=20)

Their loyalty will be compensated with.... forced retirement when the crunch comes.

[boutons_deux]

Capitalism treats Labor like shit, because they know there's no punishment, or even pushback.

Remember Delta was the shitbag company that sent two goons to drag a doctor out of his seat and drag him down the aisle and off the plane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_anhvdWf3DM

[Winehole23]

When businesses suddenly laid off 30 million people last March and April, they all had time to think about it. So did the retailers, delivery drivers, cashiers, stockers and line cooks who suddenly had some of the most dangerous jobs in America.

Should our heroic essential workers continue to work for the same pittance and shittly work conditions they had before?

It's understandable that a lot of people have decided not to reapply or took their talents elsewhere, tbh.it's also understandable that many others are wary to apply.

[Winehole23]

I left out health care workers.

who else?

[Winehole23]

1392952791740649474

[Winehole23]

so much for the welfare moocher meme

1392608014478331905

[Winehole23]

no duh

Labor shortages end when wages rise, say some local businesses (https://www.ajc.com/ajcjobs/labor-shortages-end-when-wages-rise-say-some-local-businesses/ZJGBDTEXOBFSXEH6WLCZCU6DNA/)

[boutons_deux]

no duh

Labor shortages end when wages rise, say some local businesses (https://www.ajc.com/ajcjobs/labor-shortages-end-when-wages-rise-say-some-local-businesses/ZJGBDTEXOBFSXEH6WLCZCU6DNA/)



Labor has to be bribed back with better wages to shitty jobs. If smart, they could look around for better jobs and pay.

[ducks]

Better jobs here then 3 world countries

[Adam Lambert]

Better jobs here then 3 world countries

Clearly better opportunity too, considering you're somehow employed.

[Winehole23]

Better jobs here then 3 world countries"things suck even more elsewhere" isn't the winning argument you think it is.

[boutons_deux]

....

[Winehole23]

maybe wages and working conditions in hospitality have been lacking

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E34uJrsWUAA_nxl?format=jpg&name=medium

[ChumpDumper]

Maybe they learned to code.

[Winehole23]

Maybe they learned to code.A lot of restaurant and hospitality workers had unplanned time off from April-Feb.

[ducks]

A lot of restaurant and hospitality workers had unplanned time off from April-Feb.

Yep we will find out in 7-8 months if they fucked more

[DMC]

maybe wages and working conditions in hospitality have been lacking

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E34uJrsWUAA_nxl?format=jpg&name=medium

Hotels were empty, no maid service for entire stays unless requested. Deferred maintenance on facilities, I've hopped multiple rooms to find a working AC at times. It got pretty bad.

[Winehole23]

Hotels were empty, no maid service for entire stays unless requested. Deferred maintenance on facilities, I've hopped multiple rooms to find a working AC at times. It got pretty bad.I don't know how you endured the hardship, sounds like you had a really tough 2020, what with the slightly delayed AC and maid service.

[DMC]

I don't know how you endured the hardship, sounds like you had a really tough 2020, what with the slightly delayed AC and maid service.

The bars were even closed in some of them!

[Winehole23]

greedy owners playing dumb, greedy lickspittles playing along

1409246346356445185

[boutons_deux]

Ain't Capitalism great? .... for Capitalists only

Capitalism depends on an unlimited supply of cheap, immediately 'at will' disposable labor.

[Winehole23]

"nobody wants to work"

1410939579088216065

[rascal]

If you can't pay your workers $15 an hour you should not be running a business.

[Winehole23]

the whip of scarcity did not inspire the masses to find work

ingrates!

1428787028339068934

[RandomGuy]

the whip of scarcity did not inspire the masses to find work

ingrates!

1428787028339068934

Conservative policies fail to understand or deal with economic realities? NO WAY

https://media.tenor.co/images/ea825478fb0d512393533b7b7c9d2c10/tenor.gif

[RandomGuy]

the whip of scarcity did not inspire the masses to find work

ingrates!

1428787028339068934

Looks like people used the time to invest in skills and shop around for better job opportunities.

Invest in the labor force and everybody benefits. It's almost as if the bullshit rhertoric about giving more money to "job creators" was empty cover for naked crony-ism.

[Winehole23]

three months ago restaurants were begging for an end to UI because "people't work", now they're begging for another handout because people are still afraid of COVID.

the de facto (under two presidents) US policy of allowing COVID to spread unmitgated is changing behavior and putting a severe hurting on entertainment/hospitality.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9t132QXoAQL9-w?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

price of poker went up, bitches.

ante up.


1431336863214804996

[boutons_deux]

Confederate/red states that sadistically cut benefits early have had slower employment increases than states that didn't

[Ef-man]

Confederate/red states that sadistically cut benefits early have had slower employment increases than states that didn't

Stop the entitlement funds MAGAtard states are receiving now!

Throwing pearls before swine.

How can they pull themselves up by boot straps if they receive help?

[Winehole23]

Barry Ritholtz is a treasure



In response to employee shortages and hiring difficulties, 25 states in America ended enhanced unemployment insurance payments early.


The thinking: If we curtail generous unemployment benefits of the CARES act, these people would then go back to their former low-paying and/or unsatisfying jobs. The US still has 5.7 million fewer employed than before the pandemic.


Today, the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/states-that-cut-unemployment-benefits-saw-limited-impact-on-job-growth-11630488601) reported that “Nonfarm payrolls rose 1.33% in July from April in the 25 states that ended the benefits [early] and 1.37% in the other 25 states and the District of Columbia [that did not].”


In other words, the promised benefit of ending UI benefits early was not evident in the data.


This should come as no surprise: As we have detailed here, those pushing for early benefit termination 1) used an outdated, misguided model of lower-wage workers; 2) ignored data about the state of the labor market; 3) assumed a positive impact on labor shortages that was highly unlikely.


Start with a lack of available child care and concerns about Covid so often cited by economists. That only gets you part of the way to why those ending UI had little or no impact. There are myriad underlying reasons driving this phenomenon — and if you understand these, you will understand a lot more about what is going on today.


It is also why I am so constructive: My view of the expansion is the economy is mid-cycle, not late-cycle/Fed dependant; this implies the market has further — perhaps much further — to run. Let’s look at the data that is informing my perspective


Consider those changing careers: As noted in Elvis (Your Waiter) Has Left the Building (https://ritholtz.com/2021/07/elvis-your-waiter-has-left-the-building/), “Waitstaff, bartenders, hotel maids, busboys, dishwashers (and others) used the year of lockdown to level up, gain new skills, find not new jobs, but new careers. They have exited (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/half-of-u-s-hospitality-workers-won-t-return-in-job-crunch) difficult, thankless, dead-end jobs for a chance at the American Dream.”


Any hypothesis is just an empty theory without the data to back it up. There are two key data points that support this idea:



1) New business formation (https://www.axios.com/small-business-formation-boom-3b2d7079-c3cc-4fb9-aa18-9271e924dea8.html) has been substantial; in 2020 it was near record-breaking pace (https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/06/26/new-business-formation-in-america-goes-bezonkers).
2) The Quits Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUR) is not only above pre-pandemic levels, it reached an all-time high at 2.7%.

We’ve never had more gainfully employed people quitting their jobs to do something else, and we never have had more people starting up new businesses than ever before. The balance of power (https://ritholtz.com/2021/04/shifting-balance-of-power/) between employers and employees is shifting. As noted here in June (https://ritholtz.com/2021/06/table-stakes/), “Job openings at record highs, Quit rates at record highs, new business formation at records highs . . . why, it’s almost as if these things are related!”


What are the new gigs that have people refusing to go back to their old jobs? We have seen an explosion in:



-Mobile apps
-FinTech & finance
-DeFi, Crypto/Blockchain
-Content creators, influencers, and new media
-Non-traditional assets
-Creator/Etsy retail
-Online services
-Angel round funding of countless tech start ups

And so much more.


There is a Tsunami of available capital washing over the land. It is not just the$ 4 trillion in the various CARES Acts’ monies, but an endless sea of seed dollars and angel funds and venture capital and private equity and investor dollars ready to be put to work. If you have a smart idea and a half-decent team, lack of capital should not be your impediment.


And while that much cash will always lead to pockets of froth, that should not paint your view of the entire market. If someone wants to pay $12 million dollars for an NFT of a rock, and someone else wants to pay the same for a 60-year old Ferrari, those are one-offs, not necessarily reflective of broader deeper more liquid markets.


The genius of the gig economy is not a million serfs driving cars for someone else, but that apps like Uber and Task Rabbit opened so many people’s eyes to starting their own business versus working a menial job for low pay and zero satisfaction. Why hate a low-paying job when you can take a risk with launching your own firm? If it doesn’t work out, you end up in similar places financially, only one gives you valuable experience and much more satisfaction and control.


Sometimes the world is a confusing mixture of crosscurrents, unseen causations, coincidences, and randomness. These are the times when nothing seems to make much sense, you cannot figure out what is going on, and are forced to grope about blindly.


2021 was not one of those times.


Select the correct data set to review and you can discern the world quite clearly: You see other people’s biases and motivations, you understand the causal relationships occurring, and even though it may lead you to an outlier conclusion, you can have sufficient confidence in your own methodology to comfortably embrace being outside of the mainstream.

To get this right, all you need to do was look at the data without outmoded, ideological, and yes, racist views of the bottom quartile of the labor market.
https://ritholtz.com/2021/09/cutting-ui/

[Winehole23]

tl;dr

ending UI had a minimal effect on employment, but dinged consumer spending significantly

https://files.michaelstepner.com/pandemicUIexpiration-paper.pdf

[Winehole23]

take this job and shove it

1445475125541879812

[Thread]

take this job and shove it

1445475125541879812

...& waiting for their state unemployment benefits to expire as they waited their Federal benefits to do likewise. They salted their money and worked/work off the grid on the Internet, et al.

They'll be back, after the New Years holidays, and not until.

[Winehole23]

1445760095913066510

[Winehole23]

yeah, but who's going to believe the red diaper babies at JP Morgan?

1430928572596867076

[Winehole23]

labor strikes ticking up too: Alabama coal miners, John Deere, Kaiser Permanente, Frontier Communications, film/TV workers...

1447927577402908690

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBqdHaHWQAAAjVh?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

elder care too.

like most of the indispensable (yet uncompensated) work of social reproduction, that mainly falls on women.

1448791846818287618

[Thread]

elder care too.

like most of the indispensable (yet uncompensated) work of social reproduction, that mainly falls on women.

1448791846818287618

7. More & more Americans trying to get on non COVID disability.

[Thread]

labor strikes ticking up too: Alabama coal miners, John Deere, Kaiser Permanente, Frontier Communications, film/TV workers...

1447927577402908690

Yep, if you're gonna shit the bed, now is the time.

[Winehole23]

Federal unemployment benefits ended at the end of August, some states ended it even sooner.

Since then, there's been a record level of quits.


The number of quits increased in September to a series high of 4.4 million (+164,000). The quits rate
also increased to a series high 3.0 percent. Quits increased in several industries with the largest increases
in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+56,000); other services (+47,000); and state and local
government education (+30,000). Quits decreased in wholesale trade (-30,000). The number of quits
increased in the West region. (See table 4.)https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

[RandomGuy]

Federal unemployment benefits ended at the end of August, some states ended it even sooner.

Since then, there's been a record level of quits.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

:lol I think the people protesting getting vaccinated are going to find their ability to find a new job... limited.

Quits don't get unemployment insurance.

Suxxors: Those of us who pay insurance premiums are going to have to pick up the expensive costs of the unvaccinated. Holy fuckballs.

[Winehole23]

:lol I think the people protesting getting vaccinated are going to find their ability to find a new job... limited.

Quits don't get unemployment insurance.

Suxxors: Those of us who pay insurance premiums are going to have to pick up the expensive costs of the unvaccinated. Holy fuckballs.I seriously doubt 3% of the workforce quit just because of vax mandates

[DMC]

:lol I think the people protesting getting vaccinated are going to find their ability to find a new job... limited.

Quits don't get unemployment insurance.

Suxxors: Those of us who pay insurance premiums are going to have to pick up the expensive costs of the unvaccinated. Holy fuckballs.

Welcome to the penumbra of universal HC. Here you thought you'd be the recipient.

[DMC]

There's a lot of things happening to cause this. Doors being shut in industries where workers need daily activities to make money means they cannot stick around. Businesses trimming their workforce during the 1st sign of hardship means people will pre-emptively look for better work. Businesses capitalizing on federal funding to post record profits while at the same time "tightening their belts" which means raising the EPS for shareholders through internal audits (which is just a euphemism for "we keep more of the money"). This leads to early retirement by people not wanting to deal with it.

A few years ago it was common for people to just keep working because they didn't want to tap into their retirement, especially if they worked from home or had an office job that was relatively low stress (seasoned managers with a veteran workforce). Now people are walking away at 55. Several of my friends and former colleagues have retired around that age when they'd planned on going till mid 60's. That's 10 years of seasoned workforce that moved to not even looking for work.

But hey, there are jobs available.

[RandomGuy]

Welcome to the penumbra of universal HC. Here you thought you'd be the recipient.

What do you mean here?

[Winehole23]

Hoarding profits then crying about the labor shortage


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FEUTCR1WUAUdWJ0?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

it's the COVID



Almost half of unemployed Americans say health issues are the primary reason they're not working, according to new survey data from McKinsey, shared exclusively with Axios.

Why it matters: If one of the key drivers of the labor shortage is Americans' physical and mental health, rather than any lack of economic growth, then that means the Fed is not well placed to get millions more people working.

By the numbers: Mental health problems have reached epidemic proportions. McKinsey's American Opportunity Survey (https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/sustainable-inclusive-growth/future-of-america/american-opportunity-survey) polled 5,000 Americans and found that 37% of them had been diagnosed with mental health issues, or sought treatment for their mental health.

Between the lines: The survey found that 16% of respondents were unemployed, with 9% looking for work and 7% not looking. Those numbers are much higher than the official unemployment rate of 4.2%.



Health was by far the main reason they said they weren't working. 15% said it was because of their mental health, and 30% said it was because of their physical health.





Among unemployed people who are not looking for work, the numbers are even higher: 20% say it's because of their mental health, and 45% say it's because of their physical health.





Where it stands: Health-related unemployment is on an upward trajectory, compared to the last time the survey was run, in March.



The big picture: The number of American jobs is about 9 million lower than the pre-pandemic trend. Only 59.2% (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO) of Americans are employed, down from 61.1% pre-pandemic and a high of 64.7% in 2000.https://www.axios.com/the-labor-shortage-is-a-health-problem-194351f9-93e3-41c6-b3ba-6676068bf821.html

[Winehole23]

Quits hit another high in November

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIRFXMTWQAMVlmf?format=png&name=small

1478446690277462019

[Winehole23]

Federal unemployment benefits ended at the end of August, some states ended it even sooner.

Since then, there's been a record level of quits.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htmQuits hit another all time record in March. One wonders how big a dent COVID has put/is putting in the US workforce.

1521835490055442432

[Thread]

Quits hit another all time record in March. One wonders how big a dent COVID has put/is putting in the US workforce.

1521835490055442432

~~~


+/- MF Biden has forked out 50 billion dollars to Z'land just to moon President Putin...AND so he doesn't end up back out at Dover, AFB with the children & his Timex...

https://i2.wp.com/www.bostonherald.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/GettyImages-1234946450.jpg?fit=620%2C9999px&ssl=1