tbdog
05-21-2021, 11:21 PM
Probably one of the biggest and busiest offseason for the Spurs in a long time, due to the 2 straight playoff droughts, huge cap space, a significant decision to be made on Derozen, and plenty of areas of improvement. Spurs technically have space to sign 2 young max players, but unfortunately, the free agency market is pretty dry, with Derozan being the likely best free agent.
DDR - I think DDR is about 30 to 35 best players in the NBA. In saying that, if he is your best player, your likely not going to make the playoffs. It is essential if the Spurs decide to keep DDR moving forward, that they pair him with another player in that region. If the Spurs can't make that happen, then what is the point of keeping DDR?
Gay & Mills - Spurs were the 10th youngest team in the NBA last season. Losing Gay & Mills would hurt unless they have replacements in mind. Also, Spurs were last in 3PA and 7th last in 3P%. Losing Gay & Mills 3 point shooting would be disastrous moving forward. I think Mills returns because he has a 3pt shooting ability that the team desperately needs and also adds pg depth. Jones isn't ready to take on a bigger role.
Gay - is likely gone. In my opinion, he joins a contender. Spurs would need to replace his bench production. Šamanić will be ready to become part of the rotation but not in Gay's minutes.
Dieng - Should be resigned. He is a veteran and has a 3pt shot. Eubanks and Dieng moving forward as the backup centres solidify this position for cheap.
Lyles - He is gone and good luck to him. No need to spend more time on that.
Other decisions.
Poeltl - Here is the thing, I like him. He is on a great contract. But as a starting center, he is one of the worst ones. Valanciunas demonstrated how much better he is during the play-in an elimination game. If Poeltl can't handle a player like Valanciunas, then what hope do Spurs have against the all-star bigs in the league? You either consider regulating him to the bench or use him as trade bait. The decision does not necessarily need to be made this coming offseason. But consideration should be made when Spurs upgrade the 4.
White/Murray pairing - Look, I am not convinced it will ever work, at least not as starters. I think they are the Spurs best trade assets. If the Spurs are dedicated to these two, then one should come off the bench and reduce the time they share the court. White's minutes probably need to get the Manu treatment regardless, to ensure he is healthy when it counts.
Spurs should target two skills of need; three point shooting in volume and competent power forward with a steady 3 point shot, either as a starter or replacement for Gay.
Players to aim for.
Wing:
Duncan Robinson
Winslow
Mcdermott
Reggie Bullock
Maurice Harkless
Devonte' Graham
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Power Forwards:
Bjelica
Bobby Portis
Kelly Olynyk
Jarrett Allen
Jason Collins
Plan A - Spurs aim big.
In this scenario, Spurs make a push not only for the playoffs but also for a deep run. Spurs target Allstar big by using cap space, youth and 1sts.
The Spurs give DDR the third year but under 90mil. Spurs trade White + Poeltl, 2021 1st rd pick and 2023 top 10 protected 1st and pick swap, to Twolves for Towns. Alternatively, add Walker for Rubio instead of an extra 1st.
Alternatively, Spurs trade Poeltl + Johnson and 2021 1st rd pick and 2023 top 16 protected 1st to Pacers for Sabonis.
I think Towns is very much available but will require a big trade to make it happen. Sabonis is less likely but has a better contract is also close as a player in talent compared to Towns. This strategy realigns cap space for the 2024 season instead of 2023.
Spurs use the rest of the cap space on Mcdermott. Resign Mills.
Rotation idea:
Murray / Mills
Walker / Vassell
Derozan / Mcdermott
Johnson / Samanic
Towns / Dieng
Plan B - Trade Derozan for a better fit. Spurs keep their 1st.
I see three teams as a serious threat to go after DDR and willing to pay. Hawks, Bulls, and Knicks. If DDR chooses Knicks, I don't see anything Spurs could obtain due to their cap space. Hawks will target DDR because he will team up with Atlanta shooters. DDR playmaking ability would push Atlanta forward. Bulls are likely going to make a hard push to get a quality player to team up with Vuc and Lavine, however don't have the cap space.
Plan B (1).
Atlanta trade Collins (Max contract) for DDR. This is simply that Atlanta doesn't want to match Collins contract but willing to spend on DDR on their push for deep playoff run with Young. Technically, Spurs don't need to do the trade, however, it might provide Atlanta incentive to let Collins go if they get DDR in his place. Spurs use the next chuck of their space going after Duncan Robinson.
Alternatively, Atlanta keeps Collins but trade Gallinari, which should give Spurs some wiggle room to work in another signing.
Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Mills
Johnson / Walker / Vassell
Collins (Gallinari) / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng
Plan B (2)
Spurs receive Thad Young, Satoranský and Troy Brown from Bulls. This allows Spurs to gain some veterans and replace Gay. It also allows Spurs to give out 25 to 30 mil in contracts and go with a stronger youth movement moving forward rather than swinging for the fences. Spurs sign Duncan Robinson and have another shot at free agency in 2022.
Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Satoransky
Walker / Vassell
Johnson / Young / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng
Plan C
DDR leaves for nothing. Spurs target trades by using cap space with youth and picks.
Plan C (1)
Spurs trade Walker and 2021 1st to Pistons for Grant. Pistons are going to lose Grant regardless and besides, are not going anywhere for a few more years. Walker is the carrot. Grant's contract fits right in line with the cap space for the 2023 offseason. Grant fits with Poeltl and forms an aggressive defensive inside presence. Spurs use the next to 40 mil to secure Duncan Robinson and Mcdermott, and resign Mills and Dieng on cheap deals.
Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Mills
Mcdermott / Vassell
Grant / Johnson / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng
Plan C (2)
Spurs trade Walker and 2021 1st pick, for Harrison Barnes and 2022 second. Go after Duncan Robinson and Markkanen, resign Mills and Dieng on cheap.
Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Mills
Barnes / Vassell
Johnson / Markkanen / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng
Plan D
DDR walks and the Spurs make a push for a playoff run. Spurs do Plan B (2) without any trade, eg Collins and sign Mcdermott or instead Spurs sign Markkanen, Robinson and Mcdermott outright.
Plan E
Spurs keep their cap space for 2024 and plan for a super conservative approach by singing average players for big 2 year deals. They target players like Winslow, Mcdermott or Bullock and give them big 2 year deals. They also target Bobby Portis, Devonte' Graham, Kelly Olynyk or Otto Porter. Spurs resign Mills. Under this plan, the Spurs plan to go with a youth movement, preparing themselves to miss out on the playoffs without looking at a play in. Spurs later look at trading vets like McDermott, Mills, Olynyk to a contender looking for a playoff run.
Murray / White
Walker / Mills
Mcdermott / Vassell
Johnson / Samanic
Poeltl / Olynyk
DDR - I think DDR is about 30 to 35 best players in the NBA. In saying that, if he is your best player, your likely not going to make the playoffs. It is essential if the Spurs decide to keep DDR moving forward, that they pair him with another player in that region. If the Spurs can't make that happen, then what is the point of keeping DDR?
Gay & Mills - Spurs were the 10th youngest team in the NBA last season. Losing Gay & Mills would hurt unless they have replacements in mind. Also, Spurs were last in 3PA and 7th last in 3P%. Losing Gay & Mills 3 point shooting would be disastrous moving forward. I think Mills returns because he has a 3pt shooting ability that the team desperately needs and also adds pg depth. Jones isn't ready to take on a bigger role.
Gay - is likely gone. In my opinion, he joins a contender. Spurs would need to replace his bench production. Šamanić will be ready to become part of the rotation but not in Gay's minutes.
Dieng - Should be resigned. He is a veteran and has a 3pt shot. Eubanks and Dieng moving forward as the backup centres solidify this position for cheap.
Lyles - He is gone and good luck to him. No need to spend more time on that.
Other decisions.
Poeltl - Here is the thing, I like him. He is on a great contract. But as a starting center, he is one of the worst ones. Valanciunas demonstrated how much better he is during the play-in an elimination game. If Poeltl can't handle a player like Valanciunas, then what hope do Spurs have against the all-star bigs in the league? You either consider regulating him to the bench or use him as trade bait. The decision does not necessarily need to be made this coming offseason. But consideration should be made when Spurs upgrade the 4.
White/Murray pairing - Look, I am not convinced it will ever work, at least not as starters. I think they are the Spurs best trade assets. If the Spurs are dedicated to these two, then one should come off the bench and reduce the time they share the court. White's minutes probably need to get the Manu treatment regardless, to ensure he is healthy when it counts.
Spurs should target two skills of need; three point shooting in volume and competent power forward with a steady 3 point shot, either as a starter or replacement for Gay.
Players to aim for.
Wing:
Duncan Robinson
Winslow
Mcdermott
Reggie Bullock
Maurice Harkless
Devonte' Graham
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Power Forwards:
Bjelica
Bobby Portis
Kelly Olynyk
Jarrett Allen
Jason Collins
Plan A - Spurs aim big.
In this scenario, Spurs make a push not only for the playoffs but also for a deep run. Spurs target Allstar big by using cap space, youth and 1sts.
The Spurs give DDR the third year but under 90mil. Spurs trade White + Poeltl, 2021 1st rd pick and 2023 top 10 protected 1st and pick swap, to Twolves for Towns. Alternatively, add Walker for Rubio instead of an extra 1st.
Alternatively, Spurs trade Poeltl + Johnson and 2021 1st rd pick and 2023 top 16 protected 1st to Pacers for Sabonis.
I think Towns is very much available but will require a big trade to make it happen. Sabonis is less likely but has a better contract is also close as a player in talent compared to Towns. This strategy realigns cap space for the 2024 season instead of 2023.
Spurs use the rest of the cap space on Mcdermott. Resign Mills.
Rotation idea:
Murray / Mills
Walker / Vassell
Derozan / Mcdermott
Johnson / Samanic
Towns / Dieng
Plan B - Trade Derozan for a better fit. Spurs keep their 1st.
I see three teams as a serious threat to go after DDR and willing to pay. Hawks, Bulls, and Knicks. If DDR chooses Knicks, I don't see anything Spurs could obtain due to their cap space. Hawks will target DDR because he will team up with Atlanta shooters. DDR playmaking ability would push Atlanta forward. Bulls are likely going to make a hard push to get a quality player to team up with Vuc and Lavine, however don't have the cap space.
Plan B (1).
Atlanta trade Collins (Max contract) for DDR. This is simply that Atlanta doesn't want to match Collins contract but willing to spend on DDR on their push for deep playoff run with Young. Technically, Spurs don't need to do the trade, however, it might provide Atlanta incentive to let Collins go if they get DDR in his place. Spurs use the next chuck of their space going after Duncan Robinson.
Alternatively, Atlanta keeps Collins but trade Gallinari, which should give Spurs some wiggle room to work in another signing.
Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Mills
Johnson / Walker / Vassell
Collins (Gallinari) / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng
Plan B (2)
Spurs receive Thad Young, Satoranský and Troy Brown from Bulls. This allows Spurs to gain some veterans and replace Gay. It also allows Spurs to give out 25 to 30 mil in contracts and go with a stronger youth movement moving forward rather than swinging for the fences. Spurs sign Duncan Robinson and have another shot at free agency in 2022.
Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Satoransky
Walker / Vassell
Johnson / Young / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng
Plan C
DDR leaves for nothing. Spurs target trades by using cap space with youth and picks.
Plan C (1)
Spurs trade Walker and 2021 1st to Pistons for Grant. Pistons are going to lose Grant regardless and besides, are not going anywhere for a few more years. Walker is the carrot. Grant's contract fits right in line with the cap space for the 2023 offseason. Grant fits with Poeltl and forms an aggressive defensive inside presence. Spurs use the next to 40 mil to secure Duncan Robinson and Mcdermott, and resign Mills and Dieng on cheap deals.
Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Mills
Mcdermott / Vassell
Grant / Johnson / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng
Plan C (2)
Spurs trade Walker and 2021 1st pick, for Harrison Barnes and 2022 second. Go after Duncan Robinson and Markkanen, resign Mills and Dieng on cheap.
Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Mills
Barnes / Vassell
Johnson / Markkanen / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng
Plan D
DDR walks and the Spurs make a push for a playoff run. Spurs do Plan B (2) without any trade, eg Collins and sign Mcdermott or instead Spurs sign Markkanen, Robinson and Mcdermott outright.
Plan E
Spurs keep their cap space for 2024 and plan for a super conservative approach by singing average players for big 2 year deals. They target players like Winslow, Mcdermott or Bullock and give them big 2 year deals. They also target Bobby Portis, Devonte' Graham, Kelly Olynyk or Otto Porter. Spurs resign Mills. Under this plan, the Spurs plan to go with a youth movement, preparing themselves to miss out on the playoffs without looking at a play in. Spurs later look at trading vets like McDermott, Mills, Olynyk to a contender looking for a playoff run.
Murray / White
Walker / Mills
Mcdermott / Vassell
Johnson / Samanic
Poeltl / Olynyk