The 10 Most Likely Players the Spurs Will Select with the 12th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/ten-players-most-likely-san-antonio-spurs-first-round-2021-nba-draft/

Tried to not write a novel but failed, tbh :lol

Difficult to balance availability, San Antonio's historical preferences, short-term and long-term fit, and character-related intangibles ... but I feel okay with the order.

[KobesAchilles]

Give me the young Sengun. I know that nobody posts up anymore but it doesn’t hurt us at all to have a player that can. Would be nice to have a center who can put the ball in the hoop himself instead of just being spoon fed and ignored the whole time. He is also good at rolling to the basket and he seems to be a rim runner as well and just doing those 2 things will get him easy buckets. We need that type of player.

Defensively, we weren’t gonna rely on a rookie anyways and he can learn to slide his feet after adjusting to the speed of the nba. You can adjust a scheme to a big man who is bad defensively (somewhat) but what you can’t do is adjust an offensive scheme to a player who can’t make a basket unless he is a foot away from it. Cough cough Poetlt

[SPURt]

It’d be cool if Kai Jones or Kuminga gets down to 12 and the Spurs want to swing for the fences

[Mr. Body]

Sengun is a better athlete than some admit. He does need to improve lateral mobility and his size may prevent him from guarding Embiid and Jokic. These are real concerns, but imo overblown. He's a smart player and that accounts for a lot. He has good steal and block rates, too.

A nice thing about his game is he doesn't really pound the crap out of the ball in the post. He's not an Aldridge or Barkley, where they risk five second calls; Sengun seems to get into his moves quickly. Plus he can get into posts and semi-posts from pick and rolls, meaning a switch can cause lots of problems for the defense. He also generates a lot of fouls, further pressuring the defense. And hits at a very high rate -- I don't doubt he can become a good outside shooter.

He's a strange case, but isn't a plodding Mark Eaton giant. He's a finesse post player who is slithery and has a great motor. A lot of his putbacks and offensive boards come from smarts and sheer effort. Big question about how he fits in the team, but he's not a guy who will clog up the middle. He's too mobile for that.

[R. DeMurre]

I'll always remember the first time I started looking at videos of Sengun's play-- it just happened to be after I'd watched a couple of games where I paid extra attention to Lonnie Walker, and the contrast was amazing. Keying on Walker, I couldn't help notice that he usually does nothing when a shot goes up. He's a ball watcher to the extreme. Sengun is the exact opposite. The second a shot is up, Sengun is either sidestepping his defender, or putting a body on him. He's never passive on the offensive or defensive end, always maneuvering for an advantage, and always in attack mode to the extreme.

[Uriel]

Given how highly plugged in OP is to the Spurs, the fact that Jalen Johnson, despite what the national media think, isn't on this list is telling.

[JuneJive]

So it's boom or bust.

No safe picks. That bodes well for the Spurs as they know how to recognize and develop the player.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Thanks for this write-up. I agree that Corey Kispert if available will be a difficult proposition to ignore as he fits a need immediately. But if it's between him and Sengun, I will lean Sengun. The Spurs will be incredibly lucky if both of them are available at 12 though, methinks. Among the others, the only one that is realistically possible to get and intrigues me the most is Moses Moody. One of these three and the Spurs will have an efficient draft.

[The Truth #6]

Given how highly plugged in OP is to the Spurs, the fact that Jalen Johnson, despite what the national media think, isn't on this list is telling.

Timvp is a paid Spurs informant? Nice.

[jjspur]

Thanks for this write-up. I agree that Corey Kispert if available will be a difficult proposition to ignore as he fits a need immediately. But if it's between him and Sengun, I will lean Sengun. The Spurs will be incredibly lucky if both of them are available at 12 though, methinks. Among the others, the only one that is realistically possible to get and intrigues me the most is Moses Moody. One of these three and the Spurs will have an efficient draft.
I think Moody and Sengun drop a little bit thanks t others rising, but Kispert will probably be there at 12. It will be a hard choice for the spurs with those 3 available. Focus Pop & RC focus. Make a good choice.

[Dejounte]

Given how highly plugged in OP is to the Spurs, the fact that Jalen Johnson, despite what the national media think, isn't on this list is telling.

Not a big fan of Jalen but timvp literally says in the article that the Spurs are tightlipped as ever this year and the list is his opinion, no inside sources.

[EasyMoney]

I see one of these 5 being drafted:

Kispert
Garuba
Giddy
Sengun
Kai jones

[Dejounte]

I see one of these 5 being drafted:

Kispert
Garuba
Giddy
Sengun
Kai jones


my top 5 likeliest (meaning looking through Spurs’ lens, and not my own:

1. Wagner
2. Duarte
3. Giddey
4. Sengun
5. Mitchell

[Dex]

With the 12th pick in the NBA draft, the Spurs select....Jim Dunban.

[mo7888]

my top 5 likeliest (meaning looking through Spurs’ lens, and not my own:

1. Wagner
2. Duarte
3. Giddey
4. Sengun
5. Mitchell

When you're looking through that 'lens' are you doing it from the perspective of what we might do on the FA or S&T markets? For instance, if we do the DeRozan deal with Washington for Bertans and Deni does that impact what you see or is it strictly a BPA thing?

[Marco]

1 - Sengun
2 - Duarte
3 - Butler (wishful thinking)
4 - Kispert
5 - Jones

[Dejounte]

When you're looking through that 'lens' are you doing it from the perspective of what we might do on the FA or S&T markets? For instance, if we do the DeRozan deal with Washington for Bertans and Deni does that impact what you see or is it strictly a BPA thing?

strictly through a historical Spurs perspective and what they say they look for in prospects

[John B]

Thanks for the write-up Timvp. You were gone too long, and you give us Kispert as your no. 1 choice? :lol But knowing how PATFO disappoints me every year with their selection, and fairly wins me back over as the season progresses, I will take your word for it. Kispert might just be the boring prospect the PATFO will get the ST bitching about for days after the draft. But as you mentioned, he is tailored-fit for the Spurs looking for shooters. I’d prefer Duarte myself as a more finished product, and has that international culture to be a Spur favorite. I’d jump the gun and pick Duarte at 12, but hopefully before then PATFO have made a S&T deal for Demar to get another pick. But I will priorities Duarte, because he is a positional need right now. If PATFO could get a Collins in FA, then Spurs would be balling.

If Kuminga would fall to 12, heck I’d jump on him too for his Star potential. But why when you give him slacks for his age for having lackluster attitude, why doesn’t Jalen Johnson get the same pass? He was also 18 and could also be immaturity. They both have the same Star potential imo.

My top 5 at pick 12, Duarte, Jalen Johnson, Moody, Sengun, Wagner

Note: Moody and Jalen big hands. Nothing wrong with thinking about great players with big hands.

[SAGirl]

I feel like Kai Jones has bust potential, but he also may stick somewhere. However, he will be really bad to start. He will probably be sent to the Gleague and depending on how quickly he progresses may be there longer than expected. He is right around that category of guys that are drafted on physical tools and look a couple of years away from being a couple of years away... I like my gambles, but frankly not the ones that look to be years away. His improvement from one season to the next though may indicate he simply is still learning to play, and will imrpove yet, so if the Spurs pick him, I'll look at the sunny side.

Safer picks are Kispert, and Duarte.

If I am reaching for the sky, I am gambling on Sengun or Giddey because I tend to think the opposite of Timvp in the sense that I think its a mistake to assume guys who know how to play basketball and who have high basketball IQ won't figure things out. Now the upside may be limited unless you are a Jokic, but I'd bet these guys will figure it out. Of the two, Giddey has the most bust potential to me. If he doesn't learn how to shoot I don't see how he sticks in the league, but he is so young that the gamble may pay off.

The high risk gambles are the physical phenoms that don't have BBIQ and that you hope at some point in the next 4 years a light suddenly goes on and they figure things out. Some guys do obviously, but it's difficult to tell who and that is where age at least helps. If the guy is really young chances are he is still developing and will improve with experience. If he's older, well maybe you leave that guy for the second round. Kai is right around the edge at 20.

I saw an article that mentioned the same with Kuminga, who is a prospect whose real age is impossible to know. The reason age matters this early is that when evaluating a prospect if he is still 18 you expect a prospect to still somewhat raw, somewhat undersized, somewhat needing to add strength, needing some refinement and improvement. He's at that point still a teenager. He will get better undoubtedly. Now if that guy is older, the potential for improvement decreases, since when he's 20 or 21 you assume that guy is done growing, has had a few years to fill his frame and add refinement. You'd assume the older the player has already been improving for a longer period of time and at some point in his mid 20s will reach a ceiling. An older prospect is going to be closer to his ceiling. If Kuminga is older than advertised he's probably not going to be as good as projected for example, but the rumors are that he doesn't fall to the Spurs anyway.

Thanks for the novel Timvp, it was a fun read, with a joke here or there to keep it interesting.
:bobo

[Marco]

With Kai Jones, let's keep in mind he's not your typical 20 years old guy, as he started playing bb at age 15, so I think there is major room for improvement.

[Degoat]

When I think about the prospects, although it makes sense for the spurs to draft a big wing or a big man, I really hope they draft the best player available regardless of position

[Russ]

Just a hunch but if the Spurs draft Kai Jones, he may not be the long-term Austin project we all are assuming.

The initial training he receives will likely be from Pop and potentially Duncan -- Duncan is an island guy like Kai and came to basketball relatively late, like Kai. He could be a mentor in all senses of the word.

In addition, Austin doesn't seem like the kind of place where big men go to learn the game, more like wings and potential playmakers. While Kai might play some games in Austin, he might also be on the floor with the big team fairly early on, perhaps earlier than we think.

[Dejounte]

Just a hunch but if the Spurs draft Kai Jones, he may not be the long-term Austin project we all are assuming.

The initial training he receives will likely be from Pop and potentially Duncan -- Duncan is an island guy like Kai and came to basketball relatively late, like Kai. He could be a mentor in all senses of the word.

In addition, Austin doesn't seem like the kind of place where big men go to learn the game, more like wings and potential playmakers. While Kai might play some games in Austin, he might also be on the floor with the big team fairly early on, perhaps earlier than we think.

this “initial training” hasn’t worked for past bigs: Aldridge, Eubanks, Poeltl, Luka. Stop overestimating the Spurs development team to work miracles with raw guys like Kai.

[Russ]

this “initial training” hasn’t worked for past bigs: Aldridge, Eubanks, Poeltl, Luka. Stop overestimating the Spurs development team to work miracles with raw guys like Kai.

After all their years in the league, I don't think Aldridge or Poeltl got any "initial training" from the Spurs.

The point is, Kai would be someone the Spurs could mold into a player (after coming to the game as late as he did) They wouldn't want him to learn any bad habits too far away from the SA facility.

[SAGirl]

When I think about the prospects, although it makes sense for the spurs to draft a big wing or a big man, I really hope they draft the best player available regardless of position
Me too. Ultimately they need the best talent they can get.

[Mr. Body]

There's a lot of wishin and hopin and prayin about Kai Jones.

[KingKev]

https://www.spurstalk.com/ten-players-most-likely-san-antonio-spurs-first-round-2021-nba-draft/

Tried to not write a novel but failed, tbh :lol

Difficult to balance availability, San Antonio's historical preferences, short-term and long-term fit, and character-related intangibles ... but I feel okay with the order.


Thanks for the hard work here. Very helpful for a college ball casual like myself. I hope we swing for the fences this year; draft raw talent and throw him to the wolves for a whole season in a starting capacity. With that being said my hopes and expectations for PATFO to do anything interesting are so low these days that I think we should all anticipate risk averse drafting in the 10-15 spot for the foreseeable future.

[cd98]

The analysis of Kispert sounds like the same stuff you'd say about Jimmer, who also came out as a senior after being told as a junior he'd be a 2nd round pick.

[R. DeMurre]

That tattoo on Kispert's wrist is kinda funny: LTFF, Let That Fucker Fly.

[SAGirl]

this “initial training” hasn’t worked for past bigs: Aldridge, Eubanks, Poeltl, Luka. Stop overestimating the Spurs development team to work miracles with raw guys like Kai.
You can add Davis Bertans to that list. I remember seeing photos of private coaching sessions that Timmy was giving him on post defense and positioning. I was super excited expecting him to show all that off but I think he’s still the same guy that he was when he came in when it comes to post defense, rebounding, etc.

https://news4sanantonio.com/sports/spurs-zone/bertans-learning-post-defense-from-tim-duncan
https://static-30.sinclairstoryline.com/resources/media/7f9db243-5c4e-41b3-8b36-6d99f71bd0f9-large16x9_DuncanBertans.JPG?1510255525821

[R. DeMurre]

Watching Kuminga in the next few years should be interesting. It seems like almost every scouting report I've read says the same thing: inefficient shooter, poor decision maker, horrible metrics, awkward on D, etc., but he has a "great NBA body" and if he "puts it all together" he can be a great player. When ever I hear the term "no brainer" I think of Obi Toppin from last year, as that term got tossed around a ton with regards to him. Turns out it was a yes brainer after all. It's always a yes brainer.

[Mr. Body]

You can add Davis Bertans to that list. I remember seeing photos of private coaching sessions that Timmy was giving him on post defense and positioning. I was super excited expecting him to show all that off but I think he’s still the same guy that he was when he came in when it comes to post defense, rebounding, etc.

https://news4sanantonio.com/sports/spurs-zone/bertans-learning-post-defense-from-tim-duncan
https://static-30.sinclairstoryline.com/resources/media/7f9db243-5c4e-41b3-8b36-6d99f71bd0f9-large16x9_DuncanBertans.JPG?1510255525821

Thank you! This isn't magic. You're not going to imbue every player with dark arts of basketball arts just because you want to. Kai Jones isn't going to magically become a basketball player, isn't going to suddenly become Tim Duncan. He'll never be Tim Duncan. It's incredibly doubtful he'll be much of a basketball player at all.

[The Truth #6]

The analysis of Kispert sounds like the same stuff you'd say about Jimmer, who also came out as a senior after being told as a junior he'd be a 2nd round pick.

Wasn’t Jimmer much shorter? Kispert at least has decent height, a good vertical, and seems to be a jump shooter, not a set shooter. But yeah, drafting seniors who were on a team that got lots of media coverage does often inflate their ranking.

[Dejounte]

Seriously. You can’t teach feel for the game. And even if you could, it would take almost half a decade.

[Mr. Body]

Wasn’t Jimmer much shorter? Kispert at least has decent height, a good vertical, and seems to be a jump shooter, not a set shooter. But yeah, drafting seniors who were on a team that got lots of media coverage does often inflate their ranking.

Kispert is also much more athletic and stronger.

[The Truth #6]

Initially picking Kispert seemed like a disaster. Now, compared to the prospect of rolling the dice with Ziaire or Kai, Kispert feels like a refreshing cool breeze.

[rankingtear]

Seriously. You can’t teach feel for the game. And even if you could, it would take almost half a decade.
So you could?

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Thank you TIMMVP! Your list is very reasonable - similar to mine. I have a feeling that Spurs either have a safe pick at Kispert or gamble on Kai Jones. Jones will be a good gamble. He's an intelligent and hard-working guy and will improve more quickly than most of us think. So, I would put Jones as #1, Kispert as #2. Also, I would also don't consider Jalen Johnson at all. I'm attracted to his talent and super star potential. But he doesn't behave or talk like a spur.

[Dejounte]

So you could?

“even if you could”

[poopbox]

When I think about the prospects, although it makes sense for the spurs to draft a big wing or a big man, I really hope they draft the best player available regardless of position

I feel the opposite. I feel the spurs HAVE to draft a wing or a big even if their is a much better guard available. We already have to many guards. Any guard we draft, not matter how great a pick it is or how much upside he has or how good he shoots, is going to t compete with Dejounte, Derrick, Lonnie, Tre, and Devin (who i think will probably be a 3 or the "3rd" guard in a "3 guard lineup". Not to mention if Mills comes back or we sign a veteran guard in FA. Going to be almost impossible for that player to get on the floor, or if they do it will be at the expense of someone else not working out , like Lonnie, and then you are starting over from scratch with another young guard. Forward and Center are immediate areas of need, since the only ones we have either can't score like Poeltl, have marginal nba talent like Eubanks, or are still a complete enigma like Luka.

[rankingtear]

“even if you could”

Why half a decade?

[Dejounte]

Why half a decade?

im looking at recent examples like Poetl and Murray and even White. Guys who are starting to look like they belong in the NBA.

half a decade =5
almost half a decade =3-5 yrs

[rjv]

just as long as they don't select alfredrick hughes...

[TheGreatYacht]

If PATFO draft Kispert :lmao .....

[MultiTroll]

Krispy would have to take a major step up.

Looks great when competition not great.

Vs NBA potential level competition defense he bricked.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Kispert and Moody both have that "Spurs with the 12th pick" vibe to me.

Nice write-up Timvp!

[TD 21]

I don't know how Kispert could be 1 when Murphy III doesn't even make the top 10, which runs counter to the "Big Board" where they're ranked in the same tier.

If the former is a McDermott type and the latter a (Cam) Johnson type, it's probably wiser to go with the one whose unlikely to be a target for opposing defenses and is closer to a true combo forward/stretch four.

If they're going to go with an older, high floor role playing type though, might as well look into trading back with the Thunder or Knicks.

[ginobilized]

It's tough to figure out the Spurs mindset here. One possibility is that they are looking for a replacement for DDR.
Moody or Bouknight might be in play here.

My top 10 are:

Wagner
Sengun
Kispert
Duarte
Moody
Mitchell
Giddey
Jones
Garuba
Johnson

[SAGirl]

Seriously. You can’t teach feel for the game. And even if you could, it would take almost half a decade.
Walker IV is still on that quest.

[SAGirl]

Initially picking Kispert seemed like a disaster. Now, compared to the prospect of rolling the dice with Ziaire or Kai, Kispert feels like a refreshing cool breeze.
For sure. I think he’ll be a favorite eventually once fans see how the offense looks with a shooter like him.

I mean, I said elsewhere, I could eventually end up a big fan, he could change a lot of what they do on offense, provide a different dimension moving off screens and such.

Easily could end up being a favorite.

[SAGirl]

I don't know how Kispert could be 1 when Murphy III doesn't even make the top 10, which runs counter to the "Big Board" where they're ranked in the same tier.

If the former is a McDermott type and the latter a (Cam) Johnson type, it's probably wiser to go with the one whose unlikely to be a target for opposing defenses and is closer to a true combo forward/stretch four.

If they're going to go with an older, high floor role playing type though, might as well look into trading back with the Thunder or Knicks.
I had forgotten about Murphy 3, I like him too.

[Dejounte]

For sure. I think he’ll be a favorite eventually once fans see how the offense looks with a shooter like him.

I mean, I said elsewhere, I could eventually end up a big fan, he could change a lot of what they do on offense, provide a different dimension moving off screens and such.

Easily could end up being a favorite.

yeah, he would help the offense

but it’s like Bertans 2.0. You can only root so much for a guy like that

[Mr. Body]

yeah, he would help the offense

but it’s like Bertans 2.0. You can only root so much for a guy like that

I'll bet that Kispert is much more rounded and impactful than Bertans.

[slick'81]

All those kispers two handed jams are nice

[gospursgojas]

yeah, he would help the offense

but it’s like Bertans 2.0. You can only root so much for a guy like that

Bertans that isn’t a soft Euro. Think Joe Harris.

[The Truth #6]

You can only hate him so much, either. If the team improves, fans will get behind it. He’s possibly the player that will have the greatest impact year one. Duarte too but we have guard redundancy, so his playing time could be less. Now, year three he’s likely not much better but I suspect we’ll have more lottery picks in the future. Grabbing a useful piece has its own logic. We aren’t drafting four and getting Suggs. At 12, in this draft, do we really want to debate Jalen Johnson vs Ziaire. Hey, I’m intrigued at trading back to get 19 and 21. If Moody is there, would Thibs do it? Maybe. With 19 and 21 we could get possibly get Ziaire and another player. I’m intrigued by Deuce McBride. Seems like a Spurs type. He’d be there at 21. Hell, get Garuba and Deuce and those are two scrappy AF players.

Anyway. Just random thoughts.

[timvp]

I don't know how Kispert could be 1 when Murphy III doesn't even make the top 10, which runs counter to the "Big Board" where they're ranked in the same tier.

Keen observation, my guy :tu

I was going to include a note about that but didn't think anyone would care.

The Big Board also factored in my opinion of players. In the "most likely" write-up, I tried to look at the picks strictly from the Spurs' perspective. I like Murphy III because he's a big wing who will probably be a good defender against those big wing initiators the Spurs have struggled against since you-know-who got traded away. He's also been a really good shooter going back to his high school days. A 6-foot-9 mobile defender who could be a 40% three-point shooter is valuable in my eyes ... even if Murphy III will do nothing else other than shoot and defend.

Unfortunately, the Spurs have always been weirdly hesitant to go after big wings. Between Hedo and Nephew we begged for them to at least get a legit long wing for the bench who can be used in certain matchups ... and it never really happened in those ~8 seasons. Since Neph was gifted, they again don't appear concerned about filling what still looks like a need.

So, yeah, looking at the draft from the Spurs' perspective, since there's little to no historical evidence that they factor in the size of wings, then Murphy III is just a super one dimensional shooter ... which takes away half of his value and drops him out of the top ten.

I would be surprised if the Spurs take Murphy ... but I'd be okay with it.

[Mr. Body]

Trey Murphy shouldn't be a lottery pick. Kispert aside, Murphy is pretty limited in what he can do, although those are nice things. His splits are excellent as a shooter. Unfortunately, he can barely dribble out of trouble and may only ever be a catch-and-shoot guy. Meanwhile, he was often hidden in Virginia's scheme on defense. They have an exceptional system and he played well there, but he doesn't have many wrinkles to his game. As one analyst said, he was often put on the other team's worst offensive player and the other team often put their worst defensive player on him. Not to say he doesn't have intriguing upside, but I wouldn't put him in the same category as Kispert, who has some wrinkles and other things he can do.

[kobyz]

Trey Murphy is like a 6'9" Danny Green

[99 Problems]

:reading Thanks.

[Dingle Barry]

Kai is obviously the best pick. We need to shoot for high ceiling guys at this point.

[SAGirl]

Keen observation, my guy :tu

I was going to include a note about that but didn't think anyone would care.

The Big Board also factored in my opinion of players. In the "most likely" write-up, I tried to look at the picks strictly from the Spurs' perspective. I like Murphy III because he's a big wing who will probably be a good defender against those big wing initiators the Spurs have struggled against since you-know-who got traded away. He's also been a really good shooter going back to his high school days. A 6-foot-9 mobile defender who could be a 40% three-point shooter is valuable in my eyes ... even if Murphy III will do nothing else other than shoot and defend.

Unfortunately, the Spurs have always been weirdly hesitant to go after big wings. Between Hedo and Nephew we begged for them to at least get a legit long wing for the bench who can be used in certain matchups ... and it never really happened in those ~8 seasons. Since Neph was gifted, they again don't appear concerned about filling what still looks like a need.

So, yeah, looking at the draft from the Spurs' perspective, since there's little to no historical evidence that they factor in the size of wings, then Murphy III is just a super one dimensional shooter ... which takes away half of his value and drops him out of the top ten.

I would be surprised if the Spurs take Murphy ... but I'd be okay with it.
One dimensional is a term I tend to use for someone like Forbes. He only provides one dimension of the game, shooting, and ancillary to that scoring. If you look at Forbes he is mostly a shooter but he can score if run off the line and is good in the midrange, but that’s all. There is no defense whatsoever or any playmaking. To me that’s one dimension.

If someone can defend and shoot well, that’s not a one dimension. That’s a valuable role player. He plays both ends, provides some value even if he’s not getting many shots or has an off night. I do get your use of the term referring to offense.

If the Spurs do trade down (I’d be surprised if it happens but it’s a possibility), he’s a good target.

The Spurs aren’t averse to tall wings. They drafted Anderson, Bertans and were rumored to have interest in Batum and Kyle Kuzma, who were drafted just a pick or two before their turn. Heck I was just even forgetting Samanic because who can blame me? He has barely played. And let’s not forget busts like Livio Jean Charles, and a ticket they got on Metu.

They have looked at guys of that size over the years but they aren’t a dime a dozen. Many end up as bigs and not really big wings and frankly the best of their bunch (aside from Kawhi) was Kyle (and he was a low first round pick).

I think they like tall guys just fine, (Samanic even proves my point, he was taken b4 Johnson who has been better), but they have taken Best Available Player for their slot on various years, which has often meant taking a guard or a wing that is guard size.

It could very well be that they pass on Murphy 3 if they stay at 12, but it’s likely to happen bc there’s someone they like more (not bc of his size), which I am totally fine with so long as he doesn’t look to be years away from being a useful player.

[SAGirl]

Trey Murphy shouldn't be a lottery pick. Kispert aside, Murphy is pretty limited in what he can do, although those are nice things. His splits are excellent as a shooter. Unfortunately, he can barely dribble out of trouble and may only ever be a catch-and-shoot guy. Meanwhile, he was often hidden in Virginia's scheme on defense. They have an exceptional system and he played well there, but he doesn't have many wrinkles to his game. As one analyst said, he was often put on the other team's worst offensive player and the other team often put their worst defensive player on him. Not to say he doesn't have intriguing upside, but I wouldn't put him in the same category as Kispert, who has some wrinkles and other things he can do.
Thanks for this scouting report. I haven’t looked Murphy 3 much beyond some highlights.

[Chinook]

To be clear, Danny Green would be a lottery pick in the 2009 redraft, and that was a year where multiple HOFers entered the league. Acting like getting another Green would be a waste of a pick is bullshit. Dude would be worth his weight in gold.

[Larry O]

I can easily see Wagner & Sengun on the Spurs wish list at 12, but if they are gone by then, then I can see Kispert as being their next best choice for their draft pick at 12, especially for his shooting skills to spread the floor. GSG!!!

[mo7888]

To be clear, Danny Green would be a lottery pick in the 2009 redraft, and that was a year where multiple HOFers entered the league. Acting like getting another Green would be a waste of a pick is bullshit. Dude would be worth his weight in gold.

Agreed...but do you think Murphy is a 6'9" Danny Green, as has been suggested here? I like him but, I'm not sure he's that... I have him as a mid first rounder so it wouldn't be a huge stretch to take him at 12 but, the DG comparison I'm not sold on.

[EricB]

Sengun is going to end up being one of the top 5 best players from this draft. Pray he falls to 12.

[timvp]

The Spurs aren’t averse to tall wings.

That's ... not what I said. Put simply, I think there's a specific need for a quick-footed ~6-foot-8 player who can defend out on the perimeter that should be accounted for when putting together a roster. Just like how you always want to keep around a big, bulky center just in case that playertype is needed against specific opponents. The Spurs have never shown that they believe a quick, defensive ~6-foot-8 player is a specific need when building a roster. Thus, I don't think Trey Murphy III is an especially likely pick.

[MultiTroll]

The Spurs have never shown that they believe a quick, defensive ~6-foot-8 player is a specific need when building a roster.
Or when Morris frauded them they had no Plan B.

[Mr. Body]

That's ... not what I said. Put simply, I think there's a specific need for a quick-footed ~6-foot-8 player who can defend out on the perimeter that should be accounted for when putting together a roster. Just like how you always want to keep around a big, bulky center just in case that playertype is needed against specific opponents. The Spurs have never shown that they believe a quick, defensive ~6-foot-8 player is a specific need when building a roster. Thus, I don't think Trey Murphy III is an especially likely pick.

Except that's what Bruce Bowen was.

The Spurs repeatedly tried to get that player, coming close in some situations in FA, but never landed one. It's not that they've failed to try.

EDIT: And then that's what Kawhi Leonard was. I have no idea what you're talking about.

[spurraider21]

I want Wagner for my boy Dejounte

[Chinook]

That's ... not what I said. Put simply, I think there's a specific need for a quick-footed ~6-foot-8 player who can defend out on the perimeter that should be accounted for when putting together a roster. Just like how you always want to keep around a big, bulky center just in case that playertype is needed against specific opponents. The Spurs have never shown that they believe a quick, defensive ~6-foot-8 player is a specific need when building a roster. Thus, I don't think Trey Murphy III is an especially likely pick.

I can't speak too much for how the Spurs behaved when I was a teenager, but I think the Spurs have valued size quite a bit but valued basketball skill more. So at the end of the drafts when the choice is between talented bigs or smalls, or less talented 6-8 guys, they went for the former and tried to make up for it by taking fliers on guys like Gee, Gist, Reynolds, etc. When they had the chance to pick the better tall-wing prospects, they went for George and Kawhi. Shit they even went with Samanic at 18 for that exact reason.

I've been on ST long enough to know about how the lack of 6-8 defenders has almost been a meme. That idea hasn't really held water.

[gospursgojas]

I can’t believe how many still haven’t accepted that back to basket players like Sengun are no longer relevant in this league. Did you not just go thru 5 years of LaMarcus Aldridge? LA could shoot from distance and still held little value.

[Mr. Body]

I can’t believe how many still haven’t accepted that back to basket players like Sengun are no longer relevant in this league. Did you not just go thru 5 years of LaMarcus Aldridge? LA could shoot from distance and still held little value.

His game is very different from Aldridge's.

[gospursgojas]

His game is very different from Aldridge's.

Yes. Much better passer. Point I was making is that he’s still a pound it down low type player. 4 down offensive days are long gone.

[timvp]

when the choice is between talented bigs or smalls, or less talented 6-8 guys, they went for the former and tried to make up for it by taking fliers on guys like Gee, Gist, Reynolds, etc.

Exactly. Murphy fits that less-talented-but-might-make-up-for-it-because-he's-a-6-foot-9-wing archetype the Spurs have historically not valued.

[Mr. Body]

Yes. Much better passer. Point I was making is that he’s still a pound it down low type player. 4 down offensive days are long gone.

I think the hope is he can become a good outside shooter, which his good FT% suggests. He sets good picks and is a great roller, able to move into a quick post or make passes out of the position. He seems to not always pound the ball in the post, meaning he can abuse mismatches pretty badly. He also racks up fouls on opponents. In short, I think he can put a ton of pressure on defenses in multiple ways. LMA, who was very old when he came, was pretty limited in how dynamic he was. He still had value before he dropped off.

[timvp]

I can’t believe how many still haven’t accepted that back to basket players like Sengun are no longer relevant in this league. Did you not just go thru 5 years of LaMarcus Aldridge? LA could shoot from distance and still held little value.

This is the thought I can't quite shake when it comes to Sengun. As productive as he is, he's literally like the least coveted type of player right now. A 4.5 whose production in Europe was largely due to post-ups? Do the Spurs draft that in 2021? Maybe ... but I could also see the Spurs having like a second round grade on him.

[Mr. Body]

People talk about swinging for the fences, for getting a guy who can possibly be a transformative talent and not just a potential role-player, then they mention a guy like Kai Jones. Alperen Sengun is already vastly better than Kai Jones and Kai Jones will never catch up. Jones has a remarkably low ceiling. He's like Lonnie but worse in terms of understanding basketball. Sengun is already a better shot-blocker and will most likely come around as a long-range shooter. Everything else he has over Jones enormously and he's only just turned nineteen.

Of course Kai isn't the only other option. But at the #12 range, the only other player who is potentially transformative is Giddey, who also has risks. Or else you want a Kuminga to drop or take a potential migraine headache in Jalen Johnson.

You really don't have the nearly limitless or unknown ceiling otherwise... if Sengun drops.

[SAGirl]

I think the hope is he can become a good outside shooter, which his good FT% suggests. He sets good picks and is a great roller, able to move into a quick post or make passes out of the position. He seems to not always pound the ball in the post, meaning he can abuse mismatches pretty badly. He also racks up fouls on opponents. In short, I think he can put a ton of pressure on defenses in multiple ways. LMA, who was very old when he came, was pretty limited in how dynamic he was. He still had value before he dropped off.
Being able to abuse mistmaches is one way to kill small ball. If a small can defend you and you can’t take advantage then the coach may very well choose to go small. And that means abuse that matchup. Take it to the hole, draw fouls etc. We all loved Diaw, he created a lot of opportunities for the team out of situations like this and he wasn’t a pound the ball type guy.

[Chinook]

Exactly. Murphy fits that less-talented-but-might-make-up-for-it-because-he's-a-6-foot-9-wing archetype the Spurs have historically not valued.

I think had Murphy (assuming he's talented enough to even be in the top 22 picks -- I haven't seen a second of him play), would've been the pick in multiple seasons. I think what we've seen is a team who probably values 6-8 guys decently enough follow BPA and pick guys who are higher up on their board because their talent supersedes their size. Like:


2008 -- George Hill has had a 13-year career and will probably get to choose when to retire. He's been a much better player than the best-performing 6-8 defender picked after him, LRMaM. And Mbah a Moute himself was a player I liked for years and wish SA had found a way to pick. But he was a best a good role-player whereas Hill was a featured starter. Considering that SA also needed to stabilize their guard position, picking him made sense.

2009 -- Blair was obvious BPA. Think we both can accept that he was a rare case.

2010 -- James Anderson was BPA as far as wings go, and he probably would've been an okay player without the injury. The next 6-8 wing that was drafted was Devin Ebanks at 43. They tried to trade Hill for Paul George and were denied.

2011 -- Kawhi and Bertans

2012 -- Only an uber-late second

2013 -- Picked LJC who looked like the mobile defender you wanted before he got hurt.

2014 -- Anderson is actually an example of that flawed player who's still tall and adds defensive utility

2015 -- Another blood vessel burst in my eye. I'll be back

2016 -- Murray. Maybe they could've picked Niang instead? He went at 50.

2017 -- White. There was no 6-8 defender left in the draft

2018 -- Walker. Musa was the next 6-8 wing to be drafted, at 29 and already traded. So far no one picked after Walker has broken out. Closest is probably KBD, and who knows if he was their second-round pick before Met-- There goes another blood vessel

2019 -- Samanic. Basically what you hoped for.

2020 -- Vassell. Guess you could say Poku would fit your list, but the jury's still out.

I don't see the lack of value the way you do. They theoretically might've not valued a 6-8 SF, seeing as they did just fine with their 6-7 PFs, but I don't see any pick where there was an obvious candidate that they passed up on. We can talk about free agency and trades somewhat, but we run into Jefferson, Daye, Gay and Carroll pretty quickly. There's not too much to stand on there either.

[pad300]

Agreed...but do you think Murphy is a 6'9" Danny Green, as has been suggested here? I like him but, I'm not sure he's that... I have him as a mid first rounder so it wouldn't be a huge stretch to take him at 12 but, the DG comparison I'm not sold on.

IMO, Murphy is not close to DG. DG was never hidden as a defender in college. DG also played some point in college...

[Chinook]

I can’t believe how many still haven’t accepted that back to basket players like Sengun are no longer relevant in this league. Did you not just go thru 5 years of LaMarcus Aldridge? LA could shoot from distance and still held little value.

Aldridge was old by the time he stopped "holding value". Even two years ago, he was good enough to break stats, basically. There are ways to leverage back-to-the-basket players in the modern NBA, but it takes a system that can get the offense into and out of those plays quickly and effectively. Just expecting a guy to do an iso post-up won't work.

[Chinook]

Agreed...but do you think Murphy is a 6'9" Danny Green, as has been suggested here? I like him but, I'm not sure he's that... I have him as a mid first rounder so it wouldn't be a huge stretch to take him at 12 but, the DG comparison I'm not sold on.

No idea, actually. As I mentioned to timvp, I've never even heard anything about him. I'm just saying that folks thinking elite, almost generational three-and-D players are somehow not great picks at 12 are out of touch.

[Mr. Body]

I think had Murphy (assuming he's talented enough to even be in the top 22 picks -- I haven't seen a second of him play), would've been the pick in multiple seasons. I think what we've seen is a team who probably values 6-8 guys decently enough follow BPA and pick guys who are higher up on their board because their talent supersedes their size. Like:


2008 -- George Hill has had a 13-year career and will probably get to choose when to retire. He's been a much better player than the best-performing 6-8 defender picked after him, LRMaM. And Mbah a Moute himself was a player I liked for years and wish SA had found a way to pick. But he was a best a good role-player whereas Hill was a featured starter. Considering that SA also needed to stabilize their guard position, picking him made sense.

2009 -- Blair was obvious BPA. Think we both can accept that he was a rare case.

2010 -- James Anderson was BPA as far as wings go, and he probably would've been an okay player without the injury. The next 6-8 wing that was drafted was Devin Ebanks at 43. They tried to trade Hill for Paul George and were denied.

2011 -- Kawhi and Bertans

2012 -- Only an uber-late second

2013 -- Picked LJC who looked like the mobile defender you wanted before he got hurt.

2014 -- Anderson is actually an example of that flawed player who's still tall and adds defensive utility

2015 -- Another blood vessel burst in my eye. I'll be back

2016 -- Murray. Maybe they could've picked Niang instead? He went at 50.

2017 -- White. There was no 6-8 defender left in the draft

2018 -- Walker. Musa was the next 6-8 wing to be drafted, at 29 and already traded. So far no one picked after Walker has broken out. Closest is probably KBD, and who knows if he was their second-round pick before Met-- There goes another blood vessel

2019 -- Samanic. Basically what you hoped for.

2020 -- Vassell. Guess you could say Poku would fit your list, but the jury's still out.

I don't see the lack of value the way you do. They theoretically might've not valued a 6-8 SF, seeing as they did just fine with their 6-7 PFs, but I don't see any pick where there was an obvious candidate that they passed up on. We can talk about free agency and trades somewhat, but we run into Jefferson, Daye, Gay and Carroll pretty quickly. There's not too much to stand on there either.

Great work.

Remember, too, that for most of those years we already had Kawhi Leonard on the roster. I guess timvp wanted a less talented version of the wing with that size and defensive capabilities. Or else he said something that doesn't make sense and is trying to cover for himself.

[LittleCriminal]

Kai Jones or Keon Johnson would be nice..

[Drom John]

Basketball-Reference career VORP 2009 Draft

1) James Harden
2) Stephen Curry
3) Blake Griffin
4) Jrue Holliday
5) DeMar DeRozan
6) Danny Green
7) Jeff Teague
8) Ty Lawson
9) Darren Collison
10) Tyreke Evans
11) Ricky Rubio
12) Brandon Jennings
13) James Johnson
14) Patrick Beverley

15) Patty Mills
17) DeMarre Carroll
26) DeJuan Blair (was top five during Spurs tenure)
31) Nando De Colo
35) Austin Daye
39) Jeff Ayres
DNP) Jack McClinton

[Drom John]

Basketball-Reference career VORP 2009 Draft

1) James Harden
2) Stephen Curry
3) Blake Griffin
4) Jrue Holliday
5) DeMar DeRozan
6) Danny Green
7) Jeff Teague
8) Ty Lawson
9) Darren Collison
10) Tyreke Evans
11) Ricky Rubio
12) Brandon Jennings
13) James Johnson
14) Patrick Beverley

15) Patty Mills
17) DeMarre Carroll
26) DeJuan Blair (was top five during Spurs tenure)
31) Nando De Colo
35) Austin Daye
39) Jeff Ayres
DNP) Jack McClinton

[timvp]

I don't see the lack of value the way you do. They theoretically might've not valued a 6-8 SF, seeing as they did just fine with their 6-7 PFs, but I don't see any pick where there was an obvious candidate that they passed up on. We can talk about free agency and trades somewhat, but we run into Jefferson, Daye, Gay and Carroll pretty quickly. There's not too much to stand on there either.

Good stuff but I wasn't specifically talking about the draft -- I'm talking about that archetype in general. I don't think I need to give further examples because it appears like there will be mental gymnastics done to for some reason to purposely dodge the point ... but there were seasons during the Dirk superstar era that it appeared obvious that the Spurs should acquire a big wing to throw at him -- especially after the We Believe Warriors beat the Mavs because they had like a half dozen of those players. Bowen was a great defender but it would have been nice to have an even bigger wing at their disposal. In more recent years, the Patty Mills/George Hill on Durant/Neph type of mismatches we've seen could have been more easily avoided if the Spurs gave extra value to long wings.

If you want to counter that the Spurs have always given extra value to long wings ... I mean, that's fine. I disagree and I think history shows that pretty clearly but whatev. It's not something that can be proven or disproven.

Back to the original point, I don't think Murphy is likely to be picked by the Spurs. I give him bonus points because he's a 6-foot-9 mobile long wing. I don't think the Spurs give him bonus points for that attribute. I could be wrong ... we'll see.

[playblair]

timvp (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8) do u watch college basketball?

[TD 21]

Keen observation, my guy :tu

I was going to include a note about that but didn't think anyone would care.

The Big Board also factored in my opinion of players. In the "most likely" write-up, I tried to look at the picks strictly from the Spurs' perspective. I like Murphy III because he's a big wing who will probably be a good defender against those big wing initiators the Spurs have struggled against since you-know-who got traded away. He's also been a really good shooter going back to his high school days. A 6-foot-9 mobile defender who could be a 40% three-point shooter is valuable in my eyes ... even if Murphy III will do nothing else other than shoot and defend.

Unfortunately, the Spurs have always been weirdly hesitant to go after big wings. Between Hedo and Nephew we begged for them to at least get a legit long wing for the bench who can be used in certain matchups ... and it never really happened in those ~8 seasons. Since Neph was gifted, they again don't appear concerned about filling what still looks like a need.

So, yeah, looking at the draft from the Spurs' perspective, since there's little to no historical evidence that they factor in the size of wings, then Murphy III is just a super one dimensional shooter ... which takes away half of his value and drops him out of the top ten.

I would be surprised if the Spurs take Murphy ... but I'd be okay with it.

I know, it just didn't add up to me.

I doubt he has the strength to defend most of them. I see him as more of a non liability defender.

The way I see it, they're so adverse to change that they actually probably project most of the current core to be long term fixtures, so outside of someone they deem to have star potential, they'll look for fit.



This is the thought I can't quite shake when it comes to Sengun. As productive as he is, he's literally like the least coveted type of player right now. A 4.5 whose production in Europe was largely due to post-ups? Do the Spurs draft that in 2021? Maybe ... but I could also see the Spurs having like a second round grade on him.

Since when have the Spurs cared about conventional wisdom? They've always had a thing for skilled bigs and let's call it, non inner city players (which has probably been exacerbated in recent years) and he checks both boxes.

They've also given no indication that their long term goal is to build a championship contender. Instead, it appears to be becoming Pacers East and coincidentally his comp is Sabonis, a high floor/low ceiling regular season anchor just like Aldridge was.

[timvp]

timvp (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8) do u watch college basketball?

I liked your post better before the edit, tbh :lol

Spurs fans already preparing themselves for their annual meltdown. Should be fun :hungry:

[timvp]

Since when have the Spurs cared about conventional wisdom?

Half agree ..... but then I think of RC talking about how they drafted Samanic because you need perimeter-oriented, perimeter-talented power forwards in the today's league. To go from that way of thinking where future PFs need to basically be jumbo SFs to drafting Sengun would require quite a change of perspective by the front office.

[TD 21]

In terms of the Spurs not targeting big wings, it's because most are inner city types.

They probably only pulled the trigger on Scumbag because they thought his being socially awkward meant he didn't fit the stereotype.


Half agree ..... but then I think of RC talking about how they drafted Samanic because you need perimeter-oriented, perimeter-talented power forwards in the today's league. To go from that way of thinking where future PFs need to basically be jumbo SFs to drafting Sengun would require quite a change of perspective by the front office.

Sengun is a C, who'd ideally be paired with a floor spacing, rim protecting "PF" like Grant.

[Floyd Pacquiao]

As long as they don’t draft an undersized 2 I’m good.

[cd98]

Mentally preparing myself for a Kispert selection. It will be okay. Step away from the keyboard...

[timvp]

In terms of the Spurs not targeting big wings, it's because most are inner city types.

I don't necessarily agree with your reasoning but you had me nodding my head for the first half of the sentence.


Sengun is a C

Oof. A 6-foot-9 or 6-foot-10 center without a noteworthy wingspan and without explosive vertical pop would be destined to be a bottom tier defender. If you view Sengun as a PF or a PF/C, at least it's theoretically possible he could get in great shape and become mobile enough to hang while moving to center when the matchup allows it.

[slick'81]

Please let one of koody,sengun or wagner fall. I know its unlikely but pleease

[TD 21]

I don't necessarily agree with your reasoning but you had me nodding my head for the first half of the sentence.



Oof. A 6-foot-9 or 6-foot-10 center without a noteworthy wingspan and without explosive vertical pop would be destined to be a bottom tier defender. If you view Sengun as a PF or a PF/C, at least it's theoretically possible he could get in great shape and become mobile enough to hang while moving to center when the matchup allows it.

Sure, but that's a different debate. I see no credible argument for him being a "PF" in the present day, when he can't (for now) shoot or defend in space. He can't protect the rim either, but he'll have to play it by default and have a "PF" next to him who can provide rim protection.

[T Park]

Sengun’ s tape shows when he doesnt have to move vertically on the perimeter and allowed to be just a rim defender he does quite well.

Hes 18, theres still literal and basketball growth there.

Hes offensively already more advanced than Jokic was at 18. This is a no brainer if hes at 12.

[slick'81]

Sengun’ s tape shows when he doesnt have to move vertically on the perimeter and allowed to be just a rim defender he does quite well.

Hes 18, theres still literal and basketball growth there.

Hes offensively already more advanced than Jokic was at 18. This is a no brainer if hes at 12.

no doubt but currently it doesnt look like he,moody or wagner get there

[Mr. Body]

Sengun’ s tape shows when he doesnt have to move vertically on the perimeter and allowed to be just a rim defender he does quite well.

Hes 18, theres still literal and basketball growth there.

Hes offensively already more advanced than Jokic was at 18. This is a no brainer if hes at 12.

Sengun's father posted that it's 'probably Orlando.' We'll see.

I think Sengun's lateral deficiencies are overblown.

[Sugus]

Sengun, Wagner, Moody, Giddey in that order for me. Talk around Sengun here sounds exactly like the talk around Doncic pre-draft. Great players force defenses to play to their strengths, not the other way around, tbh.

[slick'81]

Sengun, Wagner, Moody, Giddey in that order for me. Talk around Sengun here sounds exactly like the talk around Doncic pre-draft. Great players force defenses to play to their strengths, not the other way around, tbh.


Ill take any one of those four and be excited. Of course theyll all likely be gone at #12:bang

[objective]

I can’t believe how many still haven’t accepted that back to basket players like Sengun are no longer relevant in this league. Did you not just go thru 5 years of LaMarcus Aldridge? LA could shoot from distance and still held little value.

1. I'm very confident Sengun will be able to shoot

2. The Spurs would have beaten Denver 2 years ago in the playoffs without their starting point guard if not for serious coaching blunders, like overplaying the Suicide Squad in game 2 and sacrificing 2 different big leads in both halves.

3. Sengun draws fouls as well, and still hasn't mastered the flop game. Drawing fouls is one of the things the Spurs will have to do to win at the margins without an elite #1 scorer.

[Russ]

1. I'm very confident Sengun will be able to shoot

2. The Spurs would have beaten Denver 2 years ago in the playoffs without their starting point guard if not for serious coaching blunders, like overplaying the Suicide Squad in game 2 and sacrificing 2 different big leads in both halves.

3. Sengun draws fouls as well, and still hasn't mastered the flop game. Drawing fouls is one of the things the Spurs will have to do to win at the margins without an elite #1 scorer.

I like Sengun but the thing that scares me about him is his somewhat slothful slowness.

(Although Doncic isn't exactly quick, either, but probably a little more than Sengun.)

[Mr. Body]

Sengun, Wagner, Moody, Giddey in that order for me. Talk around Sengun here sounds exactly like the talk around Doncic pre-draft. Great players force defenses to play to their strengths, not the other way around, tbh.

Same four for me, except Sengun, Giddey, Wagner, Moody and I think I'd take Kispert above Moody.

[Mr. Body]

I like Sengun but the thing that scares me about him is his somewhat slothful slowness.

(Although Doncic isn't exactly quick, either, but probably a little more than Sengun.)

Sengun isn't slothfully slow.

[timvp]

Welp, I feel good that I saw through all the Sengun to the Spurs talk. But, yeah, Primo would have been like ~18th on this list. Oof.

[Kurik]

Welp, I feel good that I saw through all the Sengun to the Spurs talk. But, yeah, Primo would have been like ~18th on this list. Oof.

Do the Spurs draft Primo with a top 10 pick? I’m assuming yes.

[Budkin]

Do the Spurs draft Primo with a top 10 pick? I’m assuming yes.

Knowing Brian Wright they probably still take him with a top 5 pick.

[tonski117]

I thought it would be kai jones. Then when i found out it was primo, men asked my mate who is that guy?lol