Official 2021 Redistricting Thread

[Will Hunting]

We'll see. The NC legislature appealed to the SCOTUS that the state court system shouldn't be allowed to override state legislatures. The SCOTUS is fresh off hearing and voting in favor of the Alabama GOP case. That NC case, if the SCOTUS were to rule in favor of the NC GOP, would be an enormous staré decisis going forward and a devastating blow to state courts and Democrats in general across many states, especially critical states, including Ohio, Florida (to an extent), and possibly the state legislature's case in PA as well, even though the PA map isn't really that bad.

It's crunch time in the redistricting cycle right now and the victor of the 2021 redistricting cycle will hinge on getting either Kavanaugh (likely) or Roberts (less likely) to join the 4 solid R's in the SCOTUS to rule in favor of the GOP in the North Carolina case.
They want SCOTUS to effectively rule that state constitutions are pointless and that a state Supreme Court has no authority to act as a check and balance to make sure a legislature is acting within the bounds of the constitution.

Somehow I’m not losing sleep over that going anywhere.

[Millennial_Messiah]

They want SCOTUS to effectively rule that state constitutions are pointless and that a state Supreme Court has no authority to act as a check and balance to make sure a legislature is acting within the bounds of the constitution.

Somehow I’m not losing sleep over that going anywhere.
What SCOTUS can rule is that the state courts cannot have a say specifically on US congressional redistricting without adding in all that other pork about "no authority to act as a check and balance...." or "state constitutions are pointless". We've seen it before from the SCOTUS.

You and I were probably in the same boat about a month or two ago thinking that Alabama was actually going to get 2 blue districts. 2012 the prevailing notion was the ACA was going to get nixed... nope. SCOTUS is the factory of strange outcomes. And don't discount them simultaneously throwing out certain parts of VRA as pertaining to redistricting, which would give Florida legislature carte blanche to obliterate FL-05 like DeSantis wants for example. Dems would be thanking their lucky stars that the super red states down south already passed their new maps that are good for ten years.

[Will Hunting]

What SCOTUS can rule is that the state courts cannot have a say specifically on US congressional redistricting without adding in all that other pork about "no authority to act as a check and balance...." or "state constitutions are pointless". We've seen it before from the SCOTUS.

You and I were probably in the same boat about a month or two ago thinking that Alabama was actually going to get 2 blue districts. 2012 the prevailing notion was the ACA was going to get nixed... nope. SCOTUS is the factory of strange outcomes. And don't discount them simultaneously throwing out certain parts of VRA as pertaining to redistricting, which would give Florida legislature carte blanche to obliterate FL-05 like DeSantis wants for example. Dems would be thanking their lucky stars that the super red states down south already passed their new maps that are good for ten years.
Alabama was a VRA case. This case is about the most fundamental aspects of federalism.

You literally don’t know the difference between state courts and federal courts :lol…just admit you have no idea what you’re talking about. There’s no rational basis for saying that a state Supreme Court has no power over redistricting but still has its power to enforce every other part of a state’s constitution.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I spent all night trying to draw out Columbus using dave's redistricting tool
https://davesredistricting.org/ that Will Hunting shared, and I couldn't get better than a 14-2 map with a lean blue seat stretching from east Columbus all the way to eastern Ohio. Fml. Gerrymandering is hard. These guys that do gerrymandering in real life deserve the big bucks. It's really an art and a science.

[Will Hunting]

I spent all night trying to draw out Columbus using dave's redistricting tool
https://davesredistricting.org/ that Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) shared, and I couldn't get better than a 14-2 map with a lean blue seat stretching from east Columbus all the way to eastern Ohio. Fml. Gerrymandering is hard. These guys that do gerrymandering in real life deserve the big bucks. It's really an art and a science.
I think you mean 13-2 and yes, that's the absolute best map that can be drawn for the GOP in Ohio.

OH also has several laws about county splitting so you can't really crack Columbus.

Honestly I've found figuring out the fairest way to draw a map is a lot harder than just drawing a partisan gerrymander most of the time.

[Will Hunting]

For example Millennial_Messiah I've spent god knows how much time trying to draw a perfectly fair Texas map and this is the latest version.

I think I've done a pretty good job isolating the major MSAs, but despite the fact I fucking lived there for 5 years, I'm still struggling with the best way to draw DFW.

https://i.ibb.co/vYqM5FZ/TX-Fair.png

[Millennial_Messiah]

I think you mean 13-2 and yes, that's the absolute best map that can be drawn for the GOP in Ohio.

OH also has several laws about county splitting so you can't really crack Columbus.

Honestly I've found figuring out the fairest way to draw a map is a lot harder than just drawing a partisan gerrymander most of the time.
The guys who worked overtime to come up with the maps in Michigan, Colorado and Arizona this past year should get paid big bonuses imo.

(Yes I did mean 13-2, Ohio among others in the area lost an ECV)



For example Millennial_Messiah (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=50493) I've spent god knows how much time trying to draw a perfectly fair Texas map and this is the latest version.

I think I've done a pretty good job isolating the major MSAs, but despite the fact I fucking lived there for 5 years, I'm still struggling with the best way to draw DFW.

https://i.ibb.co/vYqM5FZ/TX-Fair.png

Decent map - I count 15, maybe 16 blue districts?


As far as DFW goes, I've lived there 7 years... one thing you've got to consider is the north-Tarrant County / lower Denton County area (south of the universities... think North Fort Worth near Melody Hills, Keller, Southlake, Westlake, Northlake, Grapevine, Colleyville, Flower Mound, Argyle, etc... anywhere near Lake Lewisville) is EXTREMELY conservative, wealthy, upper class and very much proud of Texas, God, family and Trump. They're nothing like the pro-Democrat suburbanites of NoVA or the relatively laodicean Philly collar. they proudly wear MAGA stuff, right wing bumper stickers, don't tread on me stuff, lots to do with guns there. The way it's drawn right now that Kay Granger and Beth Van Duyne, two stalwart conservatives are representing... is completely fair.

On the other hand, I don't like how they drew most of Irving, a much more diverse and likely Democrat area, into district 6 which extends south all the way down into the Waxahachie area. Most of Dallas, excluding the SMU area, should be represented by a blue representative. Irving, Richardson, Mesquite, Balch Springs areas also come to mind that should be blue and not red. I actually think most of DFW drawn pretty fairly as is. Plano is pink trending purple because of all the immigrant workers once they get citizenship they will vote blue majority. But once you get to somewhere like Allen or McKinney or even Frisco or The Colony, you're back into MAGA territory.

I think the San Antonio being cracked is a bit ridiculous - I'm just outside of Bexar county in my childhood home in far eastern Medina county close to Sea World and I'm drawn into that enormous TX-23 district that usually goes GOP and expands all the way through the RGV to just east of El Paso. Tony Gonzales district. That sort of shape should be illegal unless there's really no other choice, but there really are other choices in that case.

Houston is a tough nugget because of VRA stuff. Austin you can either make 2 or 3 blue districts, you can lump liberal San Marcos into one, make one that's just Austin and then a swingy district that's trending bluer in Round Rock/Georgetown.

[Millennial_Messiah]

OH also has several laws about county splitting so you can't really crack Columbus.

Columbus has currently the highest rate of growth in terms of population and high-paying jobs in the entire Midwest currently, followed behind by Grand Rapids, Michigan. (Aside: that MI-03 district will need to be shrunk big time in 2030.) Back to Ohio, most of them that are moving in to Columbus are young and white (blue majority moving in; only area of Ohio that's actually trending blue is Franklin and Delaware counties which comprise the Columbus metro) and not enough blacks there so no VRA protection. So pretty soon they won't have a choice but to crack Franklin County, but in any case it'd be take an awfully extreme dummymander to draw out the Democrat incumbent there.

By 2030 Columbus and Grand Rapids will be seen as the tech epicenters of the upper midwest, the tech-happy places like Austin, Raleigh/Durham NC, little Silicon Valley type places everyone young wants to move to... completely leaving their rust belt counterpart former anchors in the state like Cleveland and Detroit behind.

[Will Hunting]

Decent map - I count 15, maybe 16 blue districts?
It's not nearly done yet, still need to finish most of DFW and Harris County.

[Will Hunting]

Here is how I drew DFW (the DFW counties have almost exactly enough people for 10 congressional districts so that part works out well.

The DFW area was also almost exactly 50/50 between Biden and Trump, so a fair map has 5 Biden and 5 Trump districts, the issue there is that you have GOP voters crammed into the exurb counties so the geography for Republicans isn't great.

6/26/5 are the 3 deep red exurb districts.
30 is the black VRA district.
33 picks of the working class Hispanic areas in West of Dallas (South Irving, Grand Prairie, South Arlington)
32 picks of the working class areas East of Dallas (Mesquite, Garland, etc.)
3 has a goofy shape but the goal was to create a district for white voters in Dallas County + Plano.
12 actually gives Ft. Worth its own district as oppose to the way it's currently chopped up
24/25 are supposed to be the districts for red, affluent midcities suburbs. They show as competitive on this map, but they both have a ton of down ballot R voters so I don't think they would be.

https://i.ibb.co/310jFgZ/DFW.png

[Millennial_Messiah]

Will Hunting Solid content, tbh :tu keep it coming.

IMO they should do this every 4 or 5 years because the timing of who is governor or who is on either court system etc just often makes it unfair to do it for a whole decade.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Here is how I drew DFW (the DFW counties have almost exactly enough people for 10 congressional districts so that part works out well.

The DFW area was also almost exactly 50/50 between Biden and Trump, so a fair map has 5 Biden and 5 Trump districts, the issue there is that you have GOP voters crammed into the exurb counties so the geography for Republicans isn't great.

6/26/5 are the 3 deep red exurb districts.
30 is the black VRA district.
33 picks of the working class Hispanic areas in West of Dallas (South Irving, Grand Prairie, South Arlington)
32 picks of the working class areas East of Dallas (Mesquite, Garland, etc.)
3 has a goofy shape but the goal was to create a district for white voters in Dallas County + Plano.
12 actually gives Ft. Worth its own district as oppose to the way it's currently chopped up
24/25 are supposed to be the districts for red, affluent midcities suburbs. They show as competitive on this map, but they both have a ton of down ballot R voters so I don't think they would be.

https://i.ibb.co/310jFgZ/DFW.png

Everything makes so much sense here. And the affluent North part of Fort Worth is kept red (24). If you found a way to put the city of Denton (120K population, 1 major state flagship university and 1 other decent sized vast-majority-female university) in 25 instead of 26, you could make it a pure swing district.

Also, solid job on extending the 3rd district from SMU to Plano but circumventing the ghetto areas between it. They belong in (32) in that map and it shows.

Only thing is I'd probably extend 24 westward at least to I-35. That Northern Fort Worth area has the same demography as Keller, Southlake, etc.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Here's my Ohio maps and breakdown that I spent 2 days working on.


https://i.imgur.com/7OUflnK.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/XGx56II.jpg


Self Analysis:
OH-01 is shored up to R+20 and includes all of downtown Cincinnati.
OH-02 is also R+20 and includes all of East Cincinnati (including all of the black-majority areas).
OH-03 is Columbus plus a couple close-in Democrat voting suburbs, and D+53.
OH-04 is Jim Jordan's district, R+21, rightfully so since he is the leader there; he gets mostly rural areas and a chunk of suburban Columbus.
OH-05 is R+19, includes the clay-soil Northwest Ohio region, with some towns and most of Toledo to show for it.
OH-06 is based in Youngstown, is just over R+10 but should expand on that margin as that area continues to trend red.
OH-07 is R+12 and includes Akron and southern suburbs of Cleveland.
OH-08 includes the northeastern chunk of Cincinnati, Kings Island, and many of the northeastern I-71 area suburbs. It is over R+24, the safest (R) district on the map.
OH-09 is R+14 and captures much of the Lake Erie coast of Ohio, with slightly liberal towns like Lorain, Sandusky and East Toledo included. It includes some Delaware County suburbs so it might trend bluer.
OH-10 includes all of Dayton and is R+11. Nothing much to say there.
OH-11 is Cleveland and is D+59, not much to say there either.
OH-12 is R+11 and is based in Canton and southwards towards much of the rural inner part of the state.
OH-13 is also R+11 and includes the western Cleveland suburbs all the way down the highway corridor to near Columbus.
OH-14 is only R+9 for the moment, but the area is 87.2% white and trending redder as we know, so it should solidify over the years.
OH-15 is another rural district that includes Athens (Ohio University) and southern GOP-leaning Columbus suburbs. It is a R+19 district.

[Will Hunting]

Everything makes so much sense here. And the affluent North part of Fort Worth is kept red (24). If you found a way to put the city of Denton (120K population, 1 major state flagship university and 1 other decent sized vast-majority-female university) in 25 instead of 26, you could make it a pure swing district.

Also, solid job on extending the 3rd district from SMU to Plano but circumventing the ghetto areas between it. They belong in (32) in that map and it shows.

Only thing is I'd probably extend 24 westward at least to I-35. That Northern Fort Worth area has the same demography as Keller, Southlake, etc.
I kept Denton in 26 just to make sure 25 stayed red but yeah, it'd definitely make more sense to be in 25. Same reason I didn't extend 24 west, that would mean 26 is pulling red areas from 25 and making 25 bluer, and I was aiming for a 5-5 map.

I'm trying to draw the Houston MSA now and it fucking sucks :lol

[Will Hunting]

Here's my Ohio maps and breakdown that I spent 2 days working on.


https://i.imgur.com/7OUflnK.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/XGx56II.jpg


Self Analysis:
OH-01 is shored up to R+20 and includes all of downtown Cincinnati.
OH-02 is also R+20 and includes all of East Cincinnati (including all of the black-majority areas).
OH-03 is Columbus plus a couple close-in Democrat voting suburbs, and D+53.
OH-04 is Jim Jordan's district, R+21, rightfully so since he is the leader there; he gets mostly rural areas and a chunk of suburban Columbus.
OH-05 is R+19, includes the clay-soil Northwest Ohio region, with some towns and most of Toledo to show for it.
OH-06 is based in Youngstown, is just over R+10 but should expand on that margin as that area continues to trend red.
OH-07 is R+12 and includes Akron and southern suburbs of Cleveland.
OH-08 includes the northeastern chunk of Cincinnati, Kings Island, and many of the northeastern I-71 area suburbs. It is over R+24, the safest (R) district on the map.
OH-09 is R+14 and captures much of the Lake Erie coast of Ohio, with slightly liberal towns like Lorain, Sandusky and East Toledo included. It includes some Delaware County suburbs so it might trend bluer.
OH-10 includes all of Dayton and is R+11. Nothing much to say there.
OH-11 is Cleveland and is D+59, not much to say there either.
OH-12 is R+11 and is based in Canton and southwards towards much of the rural inner part of the state.
OH-13 is also R+11 and includes the western Cleveland suburbs all the way down the highway corridor to near Columbus.
OH-14 is only R+9 for the moment, but the area is 87.2% white and trending redder as we know, so it should solidify over the years.
OH-15 is another rural district that includes Athens (Ohio University) and southern GOP-leaning Columbus suburbs. It is a R+19 district.
Can you post it with the county lines overlayed?

Ohio has a rule that each district needs either be entirely contained within one county or it needs to occupy an entire county, and there's also limits to how much county splitting is allowed in total.

[Will Hunting]

It also looks like you split Cleveland and Cincinnati. Neither city can be split under the OH constitution.

Very specific and arbitrary, but for every county large enough for an entire congressional district, the largest city in that county can't be split if the city itself has less people than what's required for a district (you can split Columbus since it has enough people).

Also you can divide 18 counties 2-ways and 5 counties 3-ways in total, you can't split any counties 4-ways and that's the maximum amount of splitting you're allowed to do.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Can you post it with the county lines overlayed?

Ohio has a rule that each district needs either be entirely contained within one county or it needs to occupy an entire county, and there's also limits to how much county splitting is allowed in total.
Yeah I can do that. I guess in this case the only ones that would be relevant are Columbus and Cleveland, since I gerrymandered Cincinnati. I didn't take any of OH-03 out of Franklin County or any of OH-11 out of Cuyahoga (I actually just left that one as-is as per the previous map). Really no reason to anyways. But all of Franklin County is much more populous than just one district, so each of its adjacent districts got a chunk of the outer portion of the district. I tried to pick D+ precincts within Franklin County only for OH-03 while still keeping the district contiguous.


It also looks like you split Cleveland and Cincinnati. Neither city can be split under the OH constitution.

Very specific and arbitrary, but for every county large enough for an entire congressional district, the largest city in that county can't be split if the city itself has less people than what's required for a district (you can split Columbus since it has enough people).

Also you can divide 18 counties 2-ways and 5 counties 3-ways in total, you can't split any counties 4-ways and that's the maximum amount of splitting you're allowed to do.
I didn't crack Cleveland. I actually just used the already-proposed OH-11 district. Even if the VRA didn't exist, I'd never crack Cleveland as it would be a big dummymander.

I did however carve up Cincinnati like a Thanksgiving turkey :lol the population is 301k so you could probably draw a red district with all of it but it wouldn't be safe red like the 3 districts I made out of it. If I were on the state legislature I'd nix the "can't crack a city" law and if they protested I'd tell them to go to a Skyline or a Gold Star and eat Cincinnati chili.

I made the maps with basic understanding of VRA and the fact that all districts must be contiguous and have equal population, that's it. I didn't even crack most of the cities, just Cincinnati and Toledo.

[Will Hunting]

Yeah I can do that. I guess in this case the only ones that would be relevant are Columbus and Cleveland, since I gerrymandered Cincinnati. I didn't take any of OH-03 out of Franklin County or any of OH-11 out of Cuyahoga (I actually just left that one as-is as per the previous map). Really no reason to anyways. But all of Franklin County is much more populous than just one district, so each of its adjacent districts got a chunk of the outer portion of the district. I tried to pick D+ precincts within Franklin County only for OH-03 while still keeping the district contiguous.


I didn't crack Cleveland. I actually just used the already-proposed OH-11 district.

I did however carve up Cincinnati like a Thanksgiving turkey :lol the population is 301k so you could probably draw a red district with all of it but it wouldn't be safe red like the 3 districts I made out of it. If I were on the state legislature I'd nix the "can't crack a city" law and if they protested I'd tell them to go to a Skyline or a Gold Star and eat Cincinnati chili.

I made the maps with basic understanding of VRA and the fact that all districts must be contiguous and have equal population, that's it. I didn't even crack most of the cities, just Cincinnati and Toledo.
You also can't make it so two districts are sharing portions of >1 county which I can tell your map does in a lot of places :lol

The only VRA consideration in OH is the Cleveland district which is taken care of by Ohio's gerrymandering rules, no other district in OH has any VRA protection.

[Millennial_Messiah]

You also can't make it so two districts are sharing portions of >1 county which I can tell your map does in a lot of places :lol

The only VRA consideration in OH is the Cleveland district which is taken care of by Ohio's gerrymandering rules, no other district in OH has any VRA protection.

yep. Neither Cincinnati nor Columbus, though they have a sizeable black population, have a black plurality unlike Cleveland.

Most of the VRA districts scattered throughout the country are untouchable even if the VRA was repealed, because of this thing called dummymandering. There's a few out there that are exceptions like in NC-01, GA-02 and the one Desantis is trying to fight in FL-05.

[Will Hunting]

yep. Neither Cincinnati nor Columbus, though they have a sizeable black population, have a black plurality unlike Cleveland.

Most of the VRA districts scattered throughout the country are untouchable even if the VRA was repealed, because of this thing called dummymandering. There's a few out there that are exceptions like in NC-01, GA-02 and the one Desantis is trying to fight in FL-05.
There's quite a bit. The black districts in LA, MS & AL would all get gutted without the VRA imo.

[Will Hunting]

Also in a 4-3 ruling, the WI supreme court has accepted Evers' maps over the state leg maps.

This isn't that big of a W since the maps Evers submitted were status quo maps that still favor the GOP, but if the WI supreme court accepted the state leg maps it would have been a permanent super majority for the GOP in the state leg, while Evers' maps keep WI-3 and WI-1 competitive. The state legislature's proposed congressional map would have locked in a 6-2 map, even in a Dem waive year.

[Millennial_Messiah]

There's quite a bit. The black districts in LA, MS & AL would all get gutted without the VRA imo.

They'd get gutted for sure, but there'd be an opportunity for the Dems to win multiple pickups in a blue wave year. You'd be throwing out a D+60 type seat and creating a bunch of safe-but-not-wave-year-immune (R) districts. For example, while cracking Nashville was a slam dunk, there's no practical way to crack Memphis without turning ruby red seats pink.


Also in a 4-3 ruling, the WI supreme court has accepted Evers' maps over the state leg maps.

This isn't that big of a W since the maps Evers submitted were status quo maps that still favor the GOP, but if the WI supreme court accepted the state leg maps it would have been a permanent super majority for the GOP in the state leg, while Evers' maps keep WI-3 and WI-1 competitive. The state legislature's proposed congressional map would have locked in a 6-2 map, even in a Dem waive year.
I saw that on 538 today. I don't like it; the other map looked prettier and less gerrymandered. But it is really a moot point because the other (better) map only shored up the Driftless and Kenosha-Racine seats by a couple points each. They were just fairer-shaped and fairer overall; for example, the Evers map/2020 map includes a chunk of southern Milwaukee in the SE WI pink district, which is just stupid. The driftless district is shaped like a jigsaw puzzle piece in Evers's map while it more resembles a square in the other proposed map.

It's not going to matter because it's a state trending red and geography is just bad for Dems there just like in PA. Just like geography is terrible for the GOP in a place like Massachusetts or California. It's going to be 6-2 GOP even in Democrat wave years because the state is trending a pretty hard right especially in those two specific districts that are currently pink.

[Will Hunting]

They'd get gutted for sure, but there'd be an opportunity for the Dems to win multiple pickups in a blue wave year. You'd be throwing out a D+60 type seat and creating a bunch of safe-but-not-wave-year-immune (R) districts. For example, while cracking Nashville was a slam dunk, there's no practical way to crack Memphis without turning ruby red seats pink.
They wouldn't crack Memphis because it's in the corner of the state; geographically difficult.

AL and MS are easy to crack though. LA is trickier because it's a dense urban population, but AL/MS can get cracked and there wouldn't even be any purple seats.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Will Hunting just finished dinner and shit, will now proceed to draw a new ohio map given your posted requirements

[Millennial_Messiah]

Trying to find a way to make a Democrat district out of Dayton, but it's not really possible with the Ohio rules. . Only way that would be possible is carrying the Dayton county (Montgomery) on a thin line all the way to Columbus and taking a big bite out of Columbus... but that's not really good because it jeopardizes having 2 democrat likely seats in the Columbus metro.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Here you go, Will Hunting. Hope you enjoy. As per the Ohio rules you mentioned, cities/counties etc, here's a potential 8-7 (D) redistricted map I made for you for 2022. Note some of the seats are fairly close and the Dems could lose, but at least their incumbents are shored up and they have great long term winning prospects. Jim Jordan is drawn out and would be defeated and forced to RETIRE from Politics as he lives in Delaware county and could not run for a different district without relocating. A bunch of huge victories and pick ups for the Democratic Party of Ohio.

https://i.imgur.com/oA8n37I.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/1vGLH4v.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/uBlZXMk.jpg

[Will Hunting]

Here you go, Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032). Hope you enjoy. As per the Ohio rules you mentioned, cities/counties etc, here's a potential 8-7 (D) redistricted map I made for you for 2022. Note some of the seats are fairly close and the Dems could lose, but at least their incumbents are shored up and they have great long term winning prospects. Jim Jordan is drawn out and would be defeated and forced to RETIRE from Politics as he lives in Delaware county and could not run for a different district without relocating. A bunch of huge victories and pick ups for the Democratic Party of Ohio.

https://i.imgur.com/oA8n37I.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/1vGLH4v.jpg



It's a fair map but it still doesn't comply with the OH rules because districts 2 and 6 share >1 county with each other. The one thing OH's rules basically prevent are long, snake districts like the OH-06 you drew.

This is the fair OH map I drew:

https://i.ibb.co/GTzK84r/OH-Fair.png

Lorraine and Cuyahoga County together have almost exactly the right amount of population for 2 districts, which is what 9 and 11 are.

The only really goofy looking part of this map is the way 13 and 14 are split but there's a rationale behind that, Youngstown and Akron are both heavily union cities with significant black populations, so putting them in the same district makes sense from a communities of interest perspective.

Also I'm not sure why more people don't know this, but Jim Jordan wouldn't have to relocate in your scenario. You don't need to live in the district you run in, you just need to live in the state.

[Millennial_Messiah]

It's a fair map but it still doesn't comply with the OH rules because districts 2 and 6 share >1 county with each other. The one thing OH's rules basically prevent are long, snake districts like the OH-06 you drew.

This is the fair OH map I drew:

https://i.ibb.co/GTzK84r/OH-Fair.png

Lorraine and Cuyahoga County together have almost exactly the right amount of population for 2 districts, which is what 9 and 11 are.

The only really goofy looking part of this map is the way 13 and 14 are split but there's a rationale behind that, Youngstown and Akron are both heavily union cities with significant black populations, so putting them in the same district makes sense from a communities of interest perspective.

Also I'm not sure why more people don't know this, but Jim Jordan wouldn't have to relocate in your scenario. You don't need to live in the district you run in, you just need to live in the state.

Oh I didn't know that... I thought I had read that somewhere. I guess it might vary state to state? I do wish every single state had state constitutional laws like Ohio's, but then again not every states have such nice-looking counties as Ohio's except for mostly plains states that are ruby red anyway. It would be nice if Illinois for instance had Ohio's constitutional law... maybe those guidelines should be federal law and not state to state? Because Ohio's state constitution pretty much forbids gerrymandering... I hear one JB Pritzker likes snakes a whole lot.

It's too much of a pipe dream to give college town Athens, Ohio any representation, I guess. At least your map gave Dayton a chance. Not the best chance, but a chance in any case. So in your case Marcy Kaptur wouldn't have to relocate to run for her native CD-5 that you drew (she is currently CD-9 but in jeopardy if the GOP map stands) or she could run for your more competitive version of CD-9 based in Lorain.

The problem I had making a blue district out of Lorain was that Medina county has gotten so red Republican lately. It used to be pretty blue iirc before the 2016 cycle. So putting it into your CD-7 makes sense. Lorain on the other hand is still pretty liberal and is one of the biggest cities % wise for Hispanics in Ohio.


If I'm POTUS I'm signing your Ohio map into law, pending a fair Illinois map. Please draw me a fair IL map. Proportionality is 57% D - 43% R, so the map should be around 10-7 (D).

[RandomGuy]

I just sort of wonder what the effects will be of the districts the fascist party is attempting to draw in the states they control will see a very steady attrition over time due to the unvaxxed dying from COVID over the long term.

In some of the thinner margined districts that will make for closer and closer races as the decade wears on.

[Will Hunting]

Oh I didn't know that... I thought I had read that somewhere. I guess it might vary state to state?
It does. Ohio has a ballot amendment on redistricting in 2015 that put these rules into place; in 2010 Ohio has full R control and basically no rules against gerrymandering, so the Ohio GOP was able to run wild.

IMO Ohio's laws are too specific to apply federally. A federal law should be broader and be more like Michigan's guidelines imo.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I just sort of wonder what the effects will be of the districts the fascist party is attempting to draw in the states they control will see a very steady attrition over time due to the unvaxxed dying from COVID over the long term.

In some of the thinner margined districts that will make for closer and closer races as the decade wears on.
:lol There's actually an argument to be made for the vaxxed (specifically the mRNA Pfizer/Moderna shots, and extra-especially the "boosted") dying younger and suffering more long term health consequences from those shots. The "unvaxxed dying from COVID" was largely exclusively related to Delta and is over now. Those unvaxxed who died of covid/covid plus co-morbidities including cancer, are dead, while those who recovered have a stronger immune system, and much stronger than if they had received the mRNA shots.

Heck I got flu shots consistently every year from Fall 2018-Fall 2011, and from 2009-2012 (mostly my high school years) I was never sicker and more prone to catching bad colds and URIs in general. So I was a very early adopter of swearing off flu/URI vaccines, as I never received one after 2013. (I skipped 2012 my senior year in HS and that was by far my healthiest year in school.)

In 2013, senior year of high school, just before taking off to college and losing my virginity, I chose to get the Gardasil shot suite (it's 3 shots over 5-6 months, my first was in January '13 and last in July) since I wasn't in a relationship or going to prom in San Antonio anyways, I figured it would be a great idea to prevent ever getting HPV, which can cause certain cancers especially testicle and mouth/throat cancers in men. Today I'm glad that I can get laid with anyone and put it in raw and that I'll always be HPV-negative no matter what, and will never give a woman cancer either, but the Gardasil shot really weakened me for quite a few years. From 2014-2019 I had Guillain Barre syndrome and the primary symptom was extreme daytime fatigue. It finally subsided in very late 2019. But it was a major factor why I was extremely sleepy all day every day throughout the last half of undergrad, my failed 2016 entry level application developer job, craved naps like a heroin addict craves dope EVERY SINGLE DAY.. you have no idea. For five fucking years, and it was worst in 2016 and 2017 and untreated. It was largely why I was completely unemployed most of 2017 and shit broke by Spring 2018. All I wanted to do was literally sleep and nothing else. Caffeine, red bull/monster, and other treatments like Modafinil just made it worse. So yeah, that was a waste of 5 years of my youth that seriously affected me and made me make some long-lasting bad decisions especially in 2016.

So yeah, I don't believe in (most) vaccines anymore. I get the baby/legacy shots (polio et al., hepatitis, meningococcus, and a tetanus booster every 10-15 years) but I'll never take a URI shot again and that Gardasil vax suite affected my life negatively for a very long time. Half the time I didn't know if I had an underlying untreated condition and was dying inside. I didn't have health insurance from 2015-2019, so that hurt, too.


It does. Ohio has a ballot amendment on redistricting in 2015 that put these rules into place; in 2010 Ohio has full R control and basically no rules against gerrymandering, so the Ohio GOP was able to run wild.

IMO Ohio's laws are too specific to apply federally. A federal law should be broader and be more like Michigan's guidelines imo.

Either way, there needs to be a federal law on that. Abolish VRA but replace it with a law on keeping communities together, which is backdoor language for enforcing what the VRA was originally meant to stand for. Though it shouldn't be based on race. Race is stupid, it's not 1962 it's 2022. People are people, Americans are Americans. Who gives a fuck about what color your skin is? Education and lifestyle is much more of a fair determinant than skin color.

Michigan's map is excellent and received the highest score of 94% fairness from Dave's website, followed by Colorado and Arizona. Though AZ does put blue Flagstaff and northern Indian areas into a red district.

Fuck the 10th Amendment, though.

[Will Hunting]

The people dying the most due to being unvaccinated are black belt Democrats. if GA-02 or NC-01 flip this decade, or if the black district in MS loses VRA protection by 2030, black voters in those districts dying because of muh Tuskegee Experiments will be a big reason why.

The idea that GOP voters are dying en masse while Dem voters aren't is just a liberal pipe dream.

[Millennial_Messiah]

The people dying the most due to being unvaccinated are black belt Democrats. if GA-02 or NC-01 flip this decade, or if the black district in MS loses VRA protection by 2030, black voters in those districts dying because of muh Tuskegee Experiments will be a big reason why.

The idea that GOP voters are dying en masse while Dem voters aren't is just a liberal pipe dream.
Add to that fact that most of the GOP voters who died of covid are old boomers and depressionaries that never supported Trump or the populist right wing movement anyway. They're the bloc that largely voted Reagan/Bush/Dole/Bush/Bush/McCain/Romney/nobody/Biden... they're the bloc that flipped AZ for the first time since 1996.

I do think as covid-19 mutates into weaker and weaker high virulence but low aggression strains unlike Delta that the pool of "dead due to no vax" is becoming slim to nil and is essentially a 2021 exclusive problem, particularly the OG strain (spring) and Delta (summer/early fall).

[Will Hunting]

Either way, there needs to be a federal law on that. Abolish VRA but replace it with a law on keeping communities together, which is backdoor language for enforcing what the VRA was originally meant to stand for. Though it shouldn't be based on race. Race is stupid, it's not 1962 it's 2022. People are people, Americans are Americans. Who gives a fuck about what color your skin is? Education and lifestyle is much more of a fair determinant than skin color.

Michigan's map is excellent and received the highest score of 94% fairness from Dave's website, followed by Colorado and Arizona. Though AZ does put blue Flagstaff and northern Indian areas into a red district.
Race is one of many factors when gauging communities of interest. It shouldn't be ignored but it shouldn't be the be-all end-all. COI factors should be race, income levels, urban/rural divide, education levels, etc., in no particular order. The other thing every state should do like Michigan is make it so a district is either safe or highly competitive. The districts that are R+15 or D+15 are the worst because they're not close enough to every be competitive while they dilute a lot of voters from the minority party.

Some of the VRA stuff is really dumb though and should go away completely. E.g., people would try to get the Texas map I posted thrown out in court because the compact districts I drew in the Rio Grande Valley would be considered "packing" too many Hispanic voters in one district even though they districts look totally normal.

[Will Hunting]

Add to that fact that most of the GOP voters who died of covid are old boomers and depressionaries that never supported Trump or the populist right wing movement anyway. They're the bloc that largely voted Reagan/Bush/Dole/Bush/Bush/McCain/Romney/nobody/Biden... they're the bloc that flipped AZ for the first time since 1996.

I do think as covid-19 mutates into weaker and weaker high virulence but low aggression strains unlike Delta that the pool of "dead due to no vax" is becoming slim to nil and is essentially a 2021 exclusive problem, particularly the OG strain (spring) and Delta (summer/early fall).
Eh idk about that....the anti-vaxxers aren't Romney/Biden voters.

What people don't get though is that the average unvaccinated American is some QAnon believing MAGAboomer, the average unvaccinated American is someone who didn't get vaccinated out of sheer laziness and apathy.

Also for states that did have a high volume of MAGAboomers dying from COVID, they aren't competitive. South Dakota and West Virginia aren't going to flip because they each had an higher proportion of GOP COVID deaths :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Race is one of many factors when gauging communities of interest. It shouldn't be ignored but it shouldn't be the be-all end-all. COI factors should be race, income levels, urban/rural divide, education levels, etc., in no particular order. The other thing every state should do like Michigan is make it so a district is either safe or highly competitive. The districts that are R+15 or D+15 are the worst because they're not close enough to every be competitive while they dilute a lot of voters from the minority party.

Some of the VRA stuff is really dumb though and should go away completely. E.g., people would try to get the Texas map I posted thrown out in court because the compact districts I drew in the Rio Grande Valley would be considered "packing" too many Hispanic voters in one district even though they districts look totally normal.

I don't think "packing" too many Hispanic voters in a majority Hispanic district is a problem at all. For example, a sleeper this year is that TX-34 may go red, even though it's listed on 538 as safe blue D+16 and has been blue for the entirety of its existence. TX GOP did an extremely smart thing picking 3 astute educated younger Hispanic conservative women (Cassy Garcia, Monica De La Cruz, Mayra Flores) to run for those 3 historically-blue-trending-red districts and my prediction is that they're going to sweep, and thus flip, all 3 of those seats (all are Tejano majority). Running 3 Hispanic conservative women is genius because the hard-rightward trend among Hispanics in 2020 was mostly Hispanic men and much less so Hispanic women, but I'm predicting the women (and more men than before) Tejanos flip red in 2022. Don't look too far into the primary turnout numbers because most of them are registered ancestral (D)s from the past that are too lazy/apathetic to re-register as a Republican (I mean I would be too, but I'm registered as an indepedent anyway), but that doesn't mean they'll vote (D) in the general election.

Whether or not you like the current Texas map, you've got to admit it does a good job avoiding the aforementioned D+10-15 or R+10-15 seats. Everything is solid D or solid R except for those three tossup RGV seats and the biggo TX-23 district which is already R+13 and trending safe red anyway with the RGV trends.


Eh idk about that....the anti-vaxxers aren't Romney/Biden voters.

What people don't get though is that the average unvaccinated American is some QAnon believing MAGAboomer, the average unvaccinated American is someone who didn't get vaccinated out of sheer laziness and apathy.

Also for states that did have a high volume of MAGAboomers dying from COVID, they aren't competitive. South Dakota and West Virginia aren't going to flip because they each had an higher proportion of GOP COVID deaths :lol
I'm unvaccinated and millennial, not a QAnon-ist, don't think Trump won MI or especially PA so although the allegations of fraud in GA/AZ (especially GA) are fair they are pointless in terms of the electoral college. I'm not lazy or apathetic, I'm quite a go-getter, but I don't believe it's a good idea for the young. For the old (over 50 and past the age of procreation/fertility), yes they should have gotten the vaccine(s). My mother chose to get the two pfizer shots when they first came out, February 2021. I caught Omicron in Wisconsin in mid December 2021 (unknowingly at the time), drove back to San Antonio, passed it to my mother who got it a lot symptomatically and for a lot longer than me... and she's vaxed and I'm not. Granted she is older, but with no co-morbidities. Food for thought, not that the vaccine(s) are necessarily bad in her case, just that they weren't particularly effective at saving her from the bad flu symptoms whereas for me it was more like a routine common cold even though I tested positive first.

[Will Hunting]

I don't think "packing" too many Hispanic voters in a majority Hispanic district is a problem at all. For example, a sleeper this year is that TX-34 may go red, even though it's listed on 538 as safe blue D+16 and has been blue for the entirety of its existence. TX GOP did an extremely smart thing picking 3 astute educated younger Hispanic conservative women (Cassy Garcia, Monica De La Cruz, Mayra Flores) to run for those 3 historically-blue-trending-red districts and my prediction is that they're going to sweep, and thus flip, all 3 of those seats (all are Tejano majority). Running 3 Hispanic conservative women is genius because the hard-rightward trend among Hispanics in 2020 was mostly Hispanic men and much less so Hispanic women, but I'm predicting the women (and more men than before) Tejanos flip red in 2022. Don't look too far into the primary turnout numbers because most of them are registered ancestral (D)s from the past that are too lazy/apathetic to re-register as a Republican (I mean I would be too, but I'm registered as an indepedent anyway), but that doesn't mean they'll vote (D) in the general election.

Whether or not you like the current Texas map, you've got to admit it does a good job avoiding the aforementioned D+10-15 or R+10-15 seats. Everything is solid D or solid R except for those three tossup RGV seats and the biggo TX-23 district which is already R+13 and trending safe red anyway with the RGV trends.
It's not a problem and it's not even packing, that's why the VRA is dumb in that small respect.

Drawing compact districts in RGV isn't packing when those areas are just heavily populated with Hispanics; it has to be a deliberate to be packing imo. E.g., when Florida drew a district snaking from Orlando all the way up to Jacksonville to soak up as many black voters as possible, that was packing. Or when NC did the same thing going from Charlotte all the way to Greensboro.

[RandomGuy]

The people dying the most due to being unvaccinated are black belt Democrats. if GA-02 or NC-01 flip this decade, or if the black district in MS loses VRA protection by 2030, black voters in those districts dying because of muh Tuskegee Experiments will be a big reason why.

The idea that GOP voters are dying en masse while Dem voters aren't is just a liberal pipe dream.

Not what I am saying at all.

4 to 8 times as many Republicans are dying, due to differentials in vaccination rates.

Play that out over a decade.

It is eating at the margins, and will do so.

[RandomGuy]

:lol There's actually an argument to be made for the vaxxed (specifically the mRNA Pfizer/Moderna shots, and extra-especially the "boosted") dying younger and suffering more long term health consequences from those shots.

(shrugs)

There is an argument to be made that the earth is flat.

:lol "Both sides have good arguments"

GTFO.

[RandomGuy]

while those who recovered have a stronger immune system, and much stronger than if they had received the mRNA shots.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias


just.... stop. smh

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias


just.... stop. smh

(shrugs)

There is an argument to be made that the earth is flat.

:lol "Both sides have good arguments"

GTFO.

Your kneejerk reaction to everything since forever just proves you're one of the (many) sheeple that only has ever factored in one side and one side only, the cow cud fed to you by the generic MSM.

Left wing Media (MSNBC, TYT, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, New Yorker)
Generic MSM (CNN, ABC News, CBS News, ABC News, arguably NYT/Wash Post, Let's Talk Elections)
Generic Conservative MSM (Fox News, NY Post, The Hill)
Right wing Media (OANN, NewsMax, Breitbart, Red Eagle Politics)

You've got to take grains of salt from each one and weigh them yourself and make a decision rather than just being a number in a human centipede.


Not what I am saying at all.

4 to 8 times as many Republicans are dying, due to differentials in vaccination rates.

Play that out over a decade.

It is eating at the margins, and will do so.

Incorrect. Turn off MSDNC and do some actual independent research. Even your fellow Democrat proves otherwise.

[Will Hunting]

Everything makes so much sense here. And the affluent North part of Fort Worth is kept red (24). If you found a way to put the city of Denton (120K population, 1 major state flagship university and 1 other decent sized vast-majority-female university) in 25 instead of 26, you could make it a pure swing district.

Also, solid job on extending the 3rd district from SMU to Plano but circumventing the ghetto areas between it. They belong in (32) in that map and it shows.

Only thing is I'd probably extend 24 westward at least to I-35. That Northern Fort Worth area has the same demography as Keller, Southlake, etc.
Updated DFW and I think this one is better, need to just tweak populations a bit but this is the gist of it.

Unfortunately Denton is just too far out there to be in a swing district; in 2030 that probably changes, for now it just doesn't make sense.

This makes 24 solid red by taking it out of Dallas County and giving it the full set of the north Fort Worth suburbs.

District 25 looks a little goofy but it's able to rope in all the heavily Asian areas which works out well, creates a 30% Asian district.

https://i.ibb.co/VV8Ndfs/DFW.png

[Millennial_Messiah]

It's not a problem and it's not even packing, that's why the VRA is dumb in that small respect.

Drawing compact districts in RGV isn't packing when those areas are just heavily populated with Hispanics; it has to be a deliberate to be packing imo. E.g., when Florida drew a district snaking from Orlando all the way up to Jacksonville to soak up as many black voters as possible, that was packing. Or when NC did the same thing going from Charlotte all the way to Greensboro.

The JB Pritzker snake from East St. Louis through Springfield all the way to Champaign (UIUC). :lol



Updated DFW and I think this one is better, need to just tweak populations a bit but this is the gist of it.

Unfortunately Denton is just too far out there to be in a swing district; in 2030 that probably changes, for now it just doesn't make sense.

This makes 24 solid red by taking it out of Dallas County and giving it the full set of the north Fort Worth suburbs.

District 25 looks a little goofy but it's able to rope in all the heavily Asian areas which works out well, creates a 30% Asian district.

https://i.ibb.co/VV8Ndfs/DFW.png

Not only is that 6-4, but as a former resident of very white and conservative The Colony/Frisco I'd be fucking pissed off with 25. :lol

Merging Irving and Plano through southern Carrollton and Addison way is fine to get that high Asian/East Indian population is fine, but that should be coming out of that 3rd district. The Colony/north Carrollton/Lewisville/Frisco northward is very white north of the GHWB Turnpike / west of the DNT Turnpike and only gets whiter and more conservative once you get north of TX-121/SRT Turnpike. That should definitely have a red district.

[Will Hunting]

The JB Pritzker snake from East St. Louis through Springfield all the way to Champaign (UIUC). :lol
That's not race packing, it's just an obnoxious Dem gerrymander :lol

As bad as that one is, the driftless area snake (Bustos' old district) is even funnier.

[RandomGuy]

Not what I am saying at all.

4 to 8 times as many Republicans are dying, due to differentials in vaccination rates.

Play that out over a decade.

It is eating at the margins, and will do so.




Incorrect. Turn off MSDNC and do some actual independent research. Even your fellow Democrat proves otherwise.

How have you determined I am incorrect?

How have you determined that I relied on a single news source for my statement?

[Millennial_Messiah]

That's not race packing, it's just an obnoxious Dem gerrymander :lol

As bad as that one is, the driftless area snake (Bustos' old district) is even funnier.

They're both very bad. I'm about to make an attempt at a fair 10-7 Map in IL.

As for DFW, leave the 24th alone and find a way to make 3 from Irving near Las Colinas area through Plano, that's a very tech-heavy demographic, yes it's plurality white but loaded with Asians, East Indians and other foreign nationals as well. It's better if you just put the SMU area of north Dallas with one of the solid blue districts if you have to. Like we already established in Ohio, you don't just gerrymander for the sake of a college/university. If you have to, make 25 start around the George Bush Turnpike or, if you have to, the TX-121/Sam Rayburn Turnpike and draw a red district from there, make sure to include The Colony/northern Carrollton/Frisco/etc and sure, even include Denton in it if you have to... but no, the district won't flip blue over Denton.

[Will Hunting]

The JB Pritzker snake from East St. Louis through Springfield all the way to Champaign (UIUC). :lol




Not only is that 6-4, but as a former resident of very white and conservative The Colony/Frisco I'd be fucking pissed off with 25. :lol

Merging Irving and Plano through southern Carrollton and Addison way is fine to get that high Asian/East Indian population is fine, but that should be coming out of that 3rd district. The Colony/north Carrollton/Lewisville/Frisco northward is very white north of the GHWB Turnpike / west of the DNT Turnpike and only gets whiter and more conservative once you get north of TX-121/SRT Turnpike. That should definitely have a red district.
Frisco was 48% Biden 50% Trump, you're right that it used to be ruby red but it isn't anymore. Same with the Colony and Carrollton.

Either way there's no perfect way to draw it, some people are always going to end disenfranchised, but in this scenario they're still getting a competitive district. It'd be Biden +7 but with A LOT of ancestral R voters.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Frisco was 48% Biden 50% Trump, you're right that it used to be ruby red but it isn't anymore. Same with the Colony and Carrollton.

Either way there's no perfect way to draw it, some people are always going to end disenfranchised, but in this scenario they're still getting a competitive district. It'd be Biden +7 but with A LOT of ancestral R voters.

Hey, now that "official" 2022 redistricting is just about over pending some court cases. How about just for fun you and I do a bipartisan independent commission on all 50 states to get the best / most fair and proportional maps? (Obviously my 2 Ohio maps were pretty much a joke but now that I've tested and spent serious time on that DRA website I think I've got it down pretty good.)

Rules: We'll keep the states we can jointly agree upon to be fairly officially drawn, like Michigan and Colorado (I assume you agree on those two, plus the 3-ECV states with only 1 district). The rule is to make states as fair and proportional as possible, minimize gerrymandering, and minimize ugly districts.

We'll see what we come up with as a bi-partisan team and what the final numbers in terms of house seats... using the 2016-2020 data (I'd encourage that 2016 is more the equilibrium over 2020 because covid will become less and less of a talking-issue over time. The equilibrium is, imo, a roughly D+2.0 popular vote nationally.

I'll go ahead and approve your 8-7 Ohio map. I'll approve the Massachusetts 9-0 map too for instance because as you pointed out you can't draw a (R) seat without an ugly gerrymander. We just need to work on the ugly / disproportionate ones or where-ever there is a challenge. I approve Arizona unless you don't.

You can keep ahead on with drawing states like Texas and release a final map when you're done and we can negotiate and fix states that need work.

I've just spent this afternoon and evening doing Illinois. Will Hunting

[Millennial_Messiah]

Illinois:

https://i.imgur.com/ob2IJ9H.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/vkEKTaY.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/E55JgJw.jpg


Democrats: 10
Republicans: 7

Tossup seats: None (most competitive seat is R+8 in IL-14, which would only flip in a blue wave year. Driftless area in NW IL is trending red.)
VRA compliance: Yes (IL-03 majority Hispanic; IL-05 majority Black)


IL-01: Downtown Chicago & adjacent
IL-02: South Chicago suburbs
IL-03: Hispanic majority SW Chicago
IL-04: Outer Chicago city limits
IL-05: Chicago's South Side (over 72 percent Black)
IL-06: Includes Joliet, Kankakee, Rantoul, rural Eastern Illinois
IL-07: Includes Urbana-Champaign, Springfield, Effingham, rural Southeast Illinois
IL-08: DuPage County Chicago suburbs
IL-09: Featuring Aurora, Chicagoland's West-southwest suburbs
IL-10: Lake County and rich, largely white upscale lakeside areas of North Chicago metro
IL-11: Featuring Chicagoland's West-northwest suburbs
IL-12: West Downstate Illinois
IL-13: Featuring Chicagoland's Northern suburbs
IL-14: District for the White Working Class region of Northern Illinois between Chicago and Rockford
IL-15: Includes Rockford and all of the Driftless Region of Illinois
IL-16: Includes Peoria and Bloomington-Normal
IL-17: Farthest downstate Illinois; includes Marion and East St. Louis area


Next map I'll try to do a Wisconsin 5-3 without gerrymandering to make it fairly proportional, but that will be hard. There's no laws saying you can't crack Madison right? Is Milwaukee black enough / protected by VRA?

[Will Hunting]

We'll see. The NC legislature appealed to the SCOTUS that the state court system shouldn't be allowed to override state legislatures. The SCOTUS is fresh off hearing and voting in favor of the Alabama GOP case. That NC case, if the SCOTUS were to rule in favor of the NC GOP, would be an enormous staré decisis going forward and a devastating blow to state courts and Democrats in general across many states, especially critical states, including Ohio, Florida (to an extent), and possibly the state legislature's case in PA as well, even though the PA map isn't really that bad.

It's crunch time in the redistricting cycle right now and the victor of the 2021 redistricting cycle will hinge on getting either Kavanaugh (likely) or Roberts (less likely) to join the 4 solid R's in the SCOTUS to rule in favor of the GOP in the North Carolina case.
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand SCOTUS made quick work of the NC GOP's retarded appeal that basically wanted to end federalism as we know it.

Denied.

[Will Hunting]

Oh I didn't know that... I thought I had read that somewhere. I guess it might vary state to state?
Sorry I never answered this, it doesn't vary state by state. Longstanding SCOTUS precedent that you don't need to live in your actual district, so even if a state tried making a law that you had to live in the district you're running in, it'd be unconstitutional.

[Millennial_Messiah]

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand SCOTUS made quick work of the NC GOP's retarded appeal that basically wanted to end federalism as we know it.

Denied.

Yup, wait until the SCONC flips from blue to red in 2022 and the NC GOP is going to go scorched earth in drawing the 2024-2030 map. Something like 12-2 and I wouldn't blame them.

& it's not really that hard. Pack the blue precincts of Charlotte together and the bluest areas of RTP together and gerrymander around those two. NC is red enough you can find twelve R+7 or better districts around 2 extremely blue districts in CHA and RTP. I'll do a NC gerrymander tonight

[Millennial_Messiah]

We're gonna get proportional maps in OH, NC and FL regardless :lol

Sucks getting a taste of your own gerrymandering medicine :lol

You think fighting "fire with fire" in IL/NY/CA etc. is fair but fighting fire with ice in OH/NC/PA etc. is also fair? Double standards and you know it. Revenge for 2010 is bullshit and you know it.

[Will Hunting]

You think fighting "fire with fire" in IL/NY/CA etc. is fair but fighting fire with ice in OH/NC/PA etc. is also fair? Double standards and you know it. Revenge for 2010 is bullshit and you know it.
We’re playing the same game y’all are playing. It’s not about revenge, it’s about power.

If you don’t like it, support a federal gerrymandering ban.

[RandomGuy]

You think fighting "fire with fire" in IL/NY/CA etc. is fair but fighting fire with ice in OH/NC/PA etc. is also fair? Double standards and you know it. Revenge for 2010 is bullshit and you know it.

At this point the Republican party has gone full on fascist, as your posts so readily demonstrate. You look the other way for autocrats and full on crony capitalism.
Look how well that worked out for Russia. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-military-corruption-quagmire/

As fucked up as jerrymandering is, it erodes your fascist party's power at the federal level.

Why do you tolerate crony capitalism in your leaders?

[Millennial_Messiah]

We’re playing the same game y’all are playing. It’s not about revenge, it’s about power.

If you don’t like it, support a federal gerrymandering ban.
The difference is that the Democrats have the ace in the hole of having state court majorities and/or advantages and use it as a trump card every time in all but the very reddest states like Tennessee. In the purple-red states the left wing state courts have been bailing out the Dems every single time while in the blue or purple-blue states the Republicans have no chance anyway because of there being a Democrat governor and/or legislature. The state courts thing has become a cheat code for the Democrats this cycle.



Race
Number
Percentage


White (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_(U.S._Census)) (non-Hispanic)
347,363
39.72%


Black or African American (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_American_(U.S._Census)) (non-Hispanic)
284,206
32.5%


Native American (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_(U.S._Census))
2,177
0.25%


Asian (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_(U.S._Census))
61,420
7.02%



Pacific Islander (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Islander_(U.S._Census))
427
0.05%


Other/Mixed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_(United_States_Census))
36,282
4.15%


Hispanic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanic_(U.S._Census)) or Latino (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latino_(U.S._Census))
142,704
16.32%




(With all the recent dramatic growth in tech jobs and migration of young people of all races, especially whites, Hispanics and Asians/India Indians in the past 10-15 years to Charlotte (think: Bank of America, Wells Fargo, many other banking & finance giants located in CHA), blacks are no longer entitled to a VRA-protected Charlotte-based district.)


If NC votes out their democrat court majority in a red wave year in 2022, which I don't doubt they will, don't be surprised if the NC GOP passes a spiteful, filthy, all-out disgusting, reverse-Pritzkermander revenge map like this:

https://i.imgur.com/ehHE9Qu.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/eLnQshC.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/oIB9cNx.jpg


Interestingly enough my NC-09 and NC-04, the R+3 and R+4 districts respectively, are trending to the right. What's trending blue? My NC-01 and NC-02 :lol , though I'd say that my NC-03 (R+7), NC-06 (R+8), and/or NC-13 (R+7) could be a little iffy in the event of a blue wave year... either way GOP gets a strong majority and a strong counter to IL/NY.

Most years, under any non-blue-wave-environment, it's a pretty solid 12-2 map.

[Will Hunting]

The difference is that the Democrats have the ace in the hole of having state court majorities and/or advantages and use it as a trump card every time in all but the very reddest states like Tennessee. In the purple-red states the left wing state courts have been bailing out the Dems every single time while in the blue or purple-blue states the Republicans have no chance anyway because of there being a Democrat governor and/or legislature.
The only "purple red" states where Dems have been bailed out by a state supreme court is North Carolina and Ohio...literally just two states. You're just hyper-focusing on those states because you have a conservative victimhood complex but you're ignoring the purple-red states (Florida, Texas) and flat out purple states (Georgia, Wisconsin) where the GOP essentially has full control of the process.

If the GOP was actually as handicapped by redistricting as you're pretending it is, then it would have wanted a federal ban. The reason the GOP doesn't want a federal ban is because it still benefits more from gerrymandering than Democrats do, it's just not as lopsided of an effect as it was in 2010.


The state courts thing has become a cheat code for the Democrats this cycle.
Elections have consequences. Democrats made a concerted effort to start winning state supreme court elections around 2015 and as a result picked up control of the supreme court in NC, PA, MI and OH. That's not a cheat code; it's no different than how the GOP focused on winning state leg control in 2010 for a redistricting advantage.

Basically you're just butthurt that Democrats beat the GOP at their own game by pouring resources into winning important court elections that have major redistricting ramifications. The retarded part is that the state supreme courts aren't drawing unfair maps, they're putting proportional maps in place that are similar to what you would expect from an independent commission. It makes no sense that you're more offended by a state supreme court imposing a fair map than you are by a state legislature imposing a hyper-gerrymandered map.


If NC votes out their democrat court majority in a red wave year in 2022, which I don't doubt they will, don't be surprised if the NC GOP passes a spiteful, filthy, all-out disgusting, reverse-Pritzkermander revenge map like this:The GOP is going to pass the exact same map it would have passed before. The veiled threats about how the GOP might take the gloves off if the Democrats don't let them do whatever they want are hilarious and stupid. After 2010, it's pretty clear the GOP is going to gerrymander as much as possible whenever it has the power to, particularly the North Carolina GOP which is known for its ruthlessness.

You're also ignoring the states that have full Dem control (Washington, Virginia, Colorado and California) where the Dems disarming themselves probably costed us 10 seats in congress. Name me one instance where the GOP disarmed itself (and no, Missouri choosing not to crack KC because of selfish incumbents isn't the MO GOP disarming itself).

:lmao if you think the NC GOP would ever draw that map. They'd much rather create a Charlotte sink district than make 4-5 more districts that are competitive. The NC GOP's map that the court overturned is the same map it'll use if the NC GOP wins control of the NCSC in 2022. There's no downside to the Dems using power while they have it. You're also wrong about Charlotte; any district that's majority-minority, even if non-hispanic whites have a plurality, has some level of VRA protection. North Carolina is also a 4th circuit state where the circuit judges are very friendly to Dems in VRA lawsuits; they would need to rely on SCOTUS to gut the VRA in order for them to dissect Charlotte, and it's just not worth it.

[Millennial_Messiah]

The only "purple red" states where Dems have been bailed out by a state supreme court is North Carolina and Ohio...literally just two states. You're just hyper-focusing on those states because you have a conservative victimhood complex but you're ignoring the purple-red states (Florida, Texas) and flat out purple states (Georgia, Wisconsin) where the GOP essentially has full control of the process.

If the GOP was actually as handicapped by redistricting as you're pretending it is, then it would have wanted a federal ban. The reason the GOP doesn't want a federal ban is because it still benefits more from gerrymandering than Democrats do, it's just not as lopsided of an effect as it was in 2010.


Elections have consequences. Democrats made a concerted effort to start winning state supreme court elections around 2015 and as a result picked up control of the supreme court in NC, PA, MI and OH. That's not a cheat code; it's no different than how the GOP focused on winning state leg control in 2010 for a redistricting advantage.

Basically you're just butthurt that Democrats beat the GOP at their own game by pouring resources into winning important court elections that have major redistricting ramifications. The retarded part is that the state supreme courts aren't drawing unfair maps, they're putting proportional maps in place that are similar to what you would expect from an independent commission. It makes no sense that you're more offended by a state supreme court imposing a fair map than you are by a state legislature imposing a hyper-gerrymandered map.

The GOP is going to pass the exact same map it would have passed before. The veiled threats about how the GOP might take the gloves off if the Democrats don't let them do whatever they want are hilarious and stupid. After 2010, it's pretty clear the GOP is going to gerrymander as much as possible whenever it has the power to, particularly the North Carolina GOP which is known for its ruthlessness.

You're also ignoring the states that have full Dem control (Washington, Virginia, Colorado and California) where the Dems disarming themselves probably costed us 10 seats in congress. Name me one instance where the GOP disarmed itself (and no, Missouri choosing not to crack KC because of selfish incumbents isn't the MO GOP disarming itself).

:lmao if you think the NC GOP would ever draw that map. They'd much rather create a Charlotte sink district than make 4-5 more districts that are competitive. The NC GOP's map that the court overturned is the same map it'll use if the NC GOP wins control of the NCSC in 2022. There's no downside to the Dems using power while they have it. You're also wrong about Charlotte; any district that's majority-minority, even if non-hispanic whites have a plurality, has some level of VRA protection. North Carolina is also a 4th circuit state where the circuit judges are very friendly to Dems in VRA lawsuits; they would need to rely on SCOTUS to gut the VRA in order for them to dissect Charlotte, and it's just not worth it.

If the GOP actually had full control in Georgia, they'd get rid of that retarded Southwest Georgia tilt-(D) district.

Wisconsin has both a Dem court system AND Governor, at least for now. Evers' map is more of a Dem gerrymander than the other proposal which was much smoother and kept more communities together compared to Evers's map.

California already has a hugely disproportional advantage in house seats for the Dems compared to their popular vote advantage. Not sure what you're asking for there.

Florida and Texas aren't even bad for the Dems unless DeSantis gets one of his maps through but that's going to be tough.

I will draw a new map in NC that's straight up 11-3 with no competitive seats. The Dems can have Charlotte.

[Will Hunting]

If the GOP actually had full control in Georgia, they'd get rid of that retarded Southwest Georgia tilt-(D) district.
How does the GOP not have full control in Georgia? Be specific. The fact they aren't cracking a majority black VRA-protected district isn't an argument that there isn't full GOP control :lmao


Wisconsin has both a Dem court system AND Governor, at least for now. Evers' map is more of a Dem gerrymander than the other proposal which was much smoother and kept more communities together compared to Evers's map.
Wisconsin's supreme court has a 4-3 conservative majority. The swing vote was literally Scott Walker's redistricting lawyer in 2010...you have no idea what you're talking about if you think the Wisconsin Supreme Court has a Dem majority :lol


California already has a hugely disproportional advantage in house seats for the Dems compared to their popular vote advantage. Not sure what you're asking for there.
That's largely just due to the GOP having shit geography in CA. A state leg could easily draw a 49-3 map in CA that's fully compliant with federal and state law.


Florida and Texas aren't even bad for the Dems unless DeSantis gets one of his maps through but that's going to be tough.
:lmao are you seriously arguing Texas isn't an obnoxious gerrymander that's bad for Dems? Biden won 46.5% of the vote statewide in Texas while only 34% of the seats drawn are seats Biden won. It's one of the most ruthless gerrymanders in the country.


I will draw a new map in NC that's straight up 11-3 with no competitive seats. The Dems can have Charlotte.
The GOP already did that so don't waste your time, it drew a 10-3-1 map (the 1 competitive seat is VRA protected, otherwise they'd have made it red).

Like I said, the NC GOP is going to go balls to the wall regardless of what Democrats do.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao are you seriously arguing Texas isn't an obnoxious gerrymander that's bad for Dems? Biden won 46.5% of the vote statewide in Texas while only 34% of the seats drawn are seats Biden won. It's one of the most ruthless gerrymanders in the country.


The GOP already did that so don't waste your time, it drew a 10-3-1 map (the 1 competitive seat is VRA protected, otherwise they'd have made it red).

Like I said, the NC GOP is going to go balls to the wall regardless of what Democrats do.
Let's face it, Blexas was a pipe dream that peaked in 2018 and is dying and swinging back red, especially on the backs of Hispanic voters and also conservative whites fleeing CA and similar states for a better/cheaper/less taxed life in Texas. I see Tarrant County flipping back red as well as the majority of the RGV flipping red for the first time. Austin is forever blue but getting maxed-out, SA is trending red as well as the Houston suburbs. Blexas is dead. The maps give the Democrats a ton of safe seats and while it's not proportional to 2020, we all know 2020 was a flukishly blue year nationwide due to we all know what (covid) - ergo lots of mail in ballots and boomers (AZ, too) blaming the incumbent even if they regret not voting for Trump now. 2016 is a better example especially in states with high older populations. IMO, 2024 will look a lot more like 2004 in Texas than 2020 or even 2016.

As for NC: I see them drawing something like this

https://i.imgur.com/iZa90SC.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/7WVrMg9.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/sviIImP.jpg


10-3-1 but really 11-3 because they're going to make that rural black belt district in the east/northeast redder like I did.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Also you never responded to my Illinois map, Will Hunting. Fair?

https://i.imgur.com/ob2IJ9H.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/vkEKTaY.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/E55JgJw.jpg

[Will Hunting]

Also you never responded to my Illinois map, Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032). Fair?

https://i.imgur.com/ob2IJ9H.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/vkEKTaY.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/E55JgJw.jpg
I think it's fair but it'd get sued under the VRA, there's too much black population packed into district 4; there should be 3 majority or plurality black districts in Chicagoland.

[Will Hunting]

Let's face it, Blexas was a pipe dream that peaked in 2018 and is dying and swinging back red, especially on the backs of Hispanic voters and also conservative whites fleeing CA and similar states for a better/cheaper/less taxed life in Texas. I see Tarrant County flipping back red as well as the majority of the RGV flipping red for the first time. Austin is forever blue but getting maxed-out, SA is trending red as well as the Houston suburbs. Blexas is dead. The maps give the Democrats a ton of safe seats and while it's not proportional to 2020, we all know 2020 was a flukishly blue year nationwide due to we all know what (covid) - ergo lots of mail in ballots and boomers (AZ, too) blaming the incumbent even if they regret not voting for Trump now. 2016 is a better example especially in states with high older populations. IMO, 2024 will look a lot more like 2004 in Texas than 2020 or even 2016.
None of this is an argument that Texas isn't gerrymandered.

:lmao if you think there's going to be an R+20 margin in Texas in 2024

[Millennial_Messiah]

I think it's fair but it'd get sued under the VRA, there's too much black population packed into district 4; there should be 3 majority or plurality black districts in Chicagoland.

I guess you can mish-mash 4 and 5 to make it VRA compliant then, basically trade a few precincts here and there to get that black plurality in district 4. Wouldn't be particularly hard since they are already adjacent. I just made 5 the South Side of Chicago in the spirit of "keeping communities together" -- you get a 72 percent Black district that pretty much gives the south side a leader of their own and would ensure that the congressperson of that district is likely black as well. It's easy enough to take 4 percent out of it though and make blacks the majority in district 4 and reduce the district 5 to 68 percent Black, which gives blacks 3 plurality district including 1 district where they're the super majority on the south side, district 5. But it would involve splitting a few communities.

No way in hell though you should ever get a blue seat downstate though. I could just imagine Pritzker last fall in a random corner of one of his luxury Hyatt offices with a mountain of food on one side of the desk and a computer on the other and stuffing his face full of french fries while smirking about how he can draw random precincts in a narrow curvy line from East St Louis all the way to Champaign through Springfield and get a D+6 district that would somehow be legal in Illinois but never legal in a more fair state like Ohio.


None of this is an argument that Texas isn't gerrymandered.

:lmao if you think there's going to be an R+20 margin in Texas in 2024
It will most likely be around R+20 in 2022 for governor and then somewhere between R+10 and R+17 in 2024 for POTUS and Senate, depending on the national environment. I didn't say it would be full blown Dubya margins in Texas, I just said "closer to 2004 than 2020".

Florida will also be close to R+10 in 2024 for POTUS and Senate. New Mexico will be interesting and AZ is almost certain to flip back to red side of purple. Wisconsin will go from purple to purple-red. Minnesota is purple-blue but Duluth (98% white and mainly WWC) is gradually trending red about 2-3% per cycle; if it pulls a Youngstown Ohio the state could actually flip despite the blue stronghold in and around in the Twin Cities. I think New Hampshire will remain on the blue side of purple. The only purple states that I think continue to trend blue are Virginia (purple-blue to Illinois-blue), Georgia (could still be purple in 2024 and go either way but is long term trending bluer) and also, Colorado is going full-Oregon...Latinos are getting priced out there and moving south and east and soon it will be D+15 type state like Oregon dominated by white stoners and would be a few high end universities away from becoming Massachusetts.

[Will Hunting]

It will most likely be around R+20 in 2022 for governor and then somewhere between R+10 and R+17 in 2024 for POTUS and Senate, depending on the national environment. I didn't say it would be full blown Dubya margins in Texas, I just said "closer to 2004 than 2020".

Florida will also be close to R+10 in 2024 for POTUS and Senate. New Mexico will be interesting and AZ is almost certain to flip back to red side of purple. Wisconsin will go from purple to purple-red. Minnesota is purple-blue but Duluth (98% white and mainly WWC) is gradually trending red about 2-3% per cycle; if it pulls a Youngstown Ohio the state could actually flip despite the blue stronghold in and around in the Twin Cities. I think New Hampshire will remain on the blue side of purple. The only purple states that I think continue to trend blue are Virginia (purple-blue to Illinois-blue), Georgia (could still be purple in 2024 and go either way but is long term trending bluer) and also, Colorado is going full-Oregon...Latinos are getting priced out there and moving south and east and soon it will be D+15 type state like Oregon dominated by white stoners and would be a few high end universities away from becoming Massachusetts.
:lmao so much wishcasting.

Abbott wins by less than 20% you kill yourself. Abbott wins by more than 20% I kill myself. Deal?

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao so much wishcasting.

Abbott wins by less than 20% you kill yourself. Abbott wins by more than 20% I kill myself. Deal?

The margin will in the range of 15-25 %, so 20 percent +/- 5.

Nobody is killing themself over a f--king political race. :lol I lived through 2020 and 6, I think i'll survive if Abbott only won by 8 or 14 points. Or even if he lost even though it would never happen.

If the TX Democrats / DNC had ran a stronger and much more moderate Democrat for Texas governor that campaigned on fixing the energy grid and not "yes we'll take away your guns" and focused on making good on the failed promises that Abbott made and never kept, like removing the Social Security windfall from teachers earning teacher pension, they would actually make the race competitive. Beta Male O'Rourke is a twice-failed candidate and is just terrible overall aside from his cult following. It will be a blowout.

The irony is that TX Dems needed a candidate like Henry Cuellar to win the governorship but Cuellar is in jeopardy of losing his own house seat in the runoff and if he loses that runoff in May to his Squad-wannabe opponent, the Democrats are toast in that district.

Cassy Garcia (TX-23; she has a runoff in May but is strongly favored to win it, her GOP opponent is white), Monica De La Cruz (TX-15), and Mayra Flores (TX-34) are all strong conservative Latina challenger candidates. I predict they will all flip the 3 RGV districts, particularly if Cuellar loses his TX-23 runoff to squadite Cisneros. If Cuellar holds on to his runoff, I give him the slight edge over Garcia (the weakest of the 3 GOP Latina conservatives in the RGV) even in a red wave year since Cuellar has a proven moderate track record.

Also bold but somewhat realistic prediction by me: both Bexar County, Texas and Miami-Dade County, Florida will vote move from "Safe D" to "Tilt D" or redder in 2022. SA in particular is taking a pretty hard right. Mexicans are very price-elastic consumers, they aren't stupid and they know why gas has shot up in the span of one year from under $2 to $4. :lol Joaquin Castro will win re-election in otherwise safe-blue TX-20 by single digits.

[boutons_deux]

4 / 6 scotus right-wing judges appear to be ready to say legislative Independence is not fringe bulshit but constitutional which allows state legislators to escape any and all oversight which includes unrestricted redistricting and choosing the electors independent of what the citizens vote for

[Thread]

4 / 6 scotus right-wing judges appear to be ready to say legislative Independence is not fringe bulshit but constitutional which allows state legislators to escape any and all oversight which includes unrestricted redistricting and choosing the electors independent of what the citizens vote for

...perhaps, but I pray you're mistaken, bouts.

[Winehole23]

1506668148057120769


Six weeks ago, in early February, SCOTUS stayed a ruling ordering Alabama to redraw its congressional map because it was too close to the election. Now, in late March, it's ordering Wisconsin to redraw its legislative mapshttps://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1506670824656355329

[Winehole23]

from Vladeck's thread


I’m old enough to remember that many, many years ago (3.5 years to be exact), the Supreme Court ruled that federal courts didn’t have jurisdiction in gerrymandering cases.

[Millennial_Messiah]

1506668148057120769

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1506670824656355329

That won't affect the outcome except in a blue wave year it should be 6-2. Bizarre they did that one in WI but not in NC where Republicans were actually drawn out. :lol


Also, I made this. Fair map for Missouri that they should consider:

https://i.imgur.com/fh0V4rV.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/D1z5EK3.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/i6ShkIh.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Ae4p4yj.jpg


Does not violate VRA because KC Metro is not black enough.

7-1 edge and all 7 safe (R) seats of R+22 and greater. Cori Bush keeps her extremely safe seat at D+57. Would be nice to see.

[Will Hunting]

The SC ruling was only for the state leg districts, Evers' congressional maps were upheld.

It's still a completely bullshit ruling that has no real basis, but it doesn't touch the congressional maps.

[Winehole23]

The SC ruling was only for the state leg districts, Evers' congressional maps were upheld.

It's still a completely bullshit ruling that has no real basis, but it doesn't touch the congressional maps.it may give insight about where the SC is at one Section 2 of the VRA -- they just overturned the legislative maps as an inappropriate use of race without a full hearing or a written opinion. Using peremptory emergency rulings to change the law along partisan lines is fascistic bullshit.

[Millennial_Messiah]

The SC ruling was only for the state leg districts, Evers' congressional maps were upheld.

It's still a completely bullshit ruling that has no real basis, but it doesn't touch the congressional maps.

Yup, doesn't overturn the Wisconsin US house map

honestly though, the other one made more sense from a geographic sense in terms of keeping communities together and drawing more reasonably looking shapes.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Missouri fair map (noted above)

https://i.imgur.com/ZwJCvgg.jpg


OREGON Fair Map (Solid 3-3) - note it's cool how the I-5 corridor area gets its own district, OR-05!!

This was an easy one to do because there's no VRA stuff in Oregon.

https://i.imgur.com/0TlCDoL.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/hya54uM.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/qJ9UNDp.jpg

[Millennial_Messiah]

NAACP and Michigan Democrat activist groups based out of Detroit have repeatedly tried to sue this year's independently-drawn map citing that the commission drew zero seats with black majorities, only two seats with black pluralities, a gross violation of the VRA, since there are large swaths of Black people located in and around the Detroit metro area as well as Flint.

Here you go, Michigan Dems, ask-and-ye-shall-receive :D

https://i.imgur.com/wkhpLtG.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/BnAR1cW.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/GIytk2F.jpg

8-4-1

There you go. Eight safe red seats in a red-trending state; one swing seat trending red, and 4 safe Democrat seats, including 2 black-majority districts, not just black-plurality. :) Fair map.

[Millennial_Messiah]

A Fair 2020s Map For The Great Chile Pepper State of New Mexico:

https://i.imgur.com/RPd63JX.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/DjpaXY2.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/aubHRr0.jpg

1-1-1

- It's more than VRA compliant; ironically the safe GOP seat (NM-02) is the Latino-majority (not just plurality) district. NM-01 has a Hispanic plurality and NM-03 has a significant Native American population.

- Gives Melanie Schmelanie a very safe (D) seat based in ABQ and Santa Fe, the GOP a safe seat in the South with the red-trending Tejano population, and one slightly-leaning Democrat but ultra-competitive NM-03 district in a slightly red-trending state.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032)

Even Fairer VERY VRA-Friendly Illinois Map (10-7 Solid) - [but a bit uglier than the last one, admittedly; but fairer]

- Hispanics get a >60% district
- Blacks get TWO large majority districts (IL-02 at 60% and IL-05 at 70%, respectively)
- Joliet and DeKalb get represented by Democrats in this edition rather than being packed into red districts

https://i.imgur.com/fQhVMAm.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/sQELddx.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/pQaBRNj.jpg

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fair Map of the Year : Fairest Michigan Map Yet!

(9 - 4 - 0 in rapidly red-trending state)

This is better than the previous Michigan maps I've posted because it shores-up MI-05, all 13 seats are safe for one side or the other; it is very much VRA-friendly and compliant as there are two clearly black-majority districts in MI-12 and MI-13; so the maps cannot be thrown out in court; also, now blue Lansing gets a guaranteed Democrat representative and a home base with the excellently-drawn MI-11. All areas of the beautiful state of Michigan get fair and accurate representation. Honestly, this map is a masterpiece, a true work of art:


https://i.imgur.com/pu9eNoq.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/81IGDeW.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/pAHDsGV.jpg

[Millennial_Messiah]

Court threw out Democratic gerrymander in Maryland today. Giving the Rust Belt panhandle of Maryland a Democrat representative should be a crime.

Looks like the GOP will be getting that fairly-drawn map after all (with a solid 6-2):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/maryland/draft_plan_2/
(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/maryland/draft_plan_2/)

[Millennial_Messiah]

BEST Fairest Ohio Map!!!

Solid (11 - 4 - 0) with Democrats getting fair and adequate representation in state, VRA compliant protected district stands, and all of Ohio's redistricting constitutional rules as mentioned previously by Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) have been abided by. This is extremely fair and should be law.

All 11 GOP-leaning districts are safe (R+14 margin or better, and state is trending red in most places outside of Columbus area and Cincinnati). OH-09 pulls in both Lorain and Delaware county so there's a chance it might need to be looked at again come 2030, otherwise it's an excellent map.

https://i.imgur.com/IqKQi0U.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/hQ4QfXD.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/dSSiSbr.jpg

[Millennial_Messiah]

Will Hunting

Big victory for GOP in Ohio (for 2022 only; we'll see about the court elections and what happens beyond there) ; but since the Democrats and Ohio Supreme Court failed to draw a new map in time for primary season, the currently-gerrymandered 12-3 (R) map will be valid for the 2022 election, meaning likely the end of Marcy Kaptur in the Toledo area. Cincinnati could go blue, though.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/ohio/

[Millennial_Messiah]

Another (small) victory for the GOP in redistricting (@Will Hunting), Louisiana Democrat governor's veto was overridden 72-31, so the 5-1 solid status quo remains in place. Dems have no shot in court there because it's a GOP court and a 5th circuit state.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/louisiana/


The last two weeks have not been particularly great for Democrats in redistricting. GOP governor Chris Sununu going aggressive to flip both seats instead of rolling with the fair solid 1-1 map in New Hampshire. Maryland's going to get a rightful second safe GOP seat. We still don't know what the fuck will happen in Florida. DeSantis going for the gusto.

[Winehole23]

the case is related to but not about redistricting, FL gets put back into preclearance under the VRA

1509561723262541835

[Millennial_Messiah]

Maryland Democrats get a win as they draw a still-gerrymandered and now approved 6-1-1 map with a couple looser blue seats and a pure competitive seat in the west panhandle which should piss off the mostly red voters there. They shouldn't have been drawn in with part of liberal down state. They should be pissed. Larry Hogan should have mandated a solid 6-2 map before approving. The Andy Harris (R) seat in the east panhandle is completely shored up though, R+25.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Just drew this fairest Pennsylvania (PA) map (10-7 Solid) - way better than the currently passed map full of dumb toss-ups.

Improves the VRA districts in Philly a bit, gives inner city Pittsburgh fair representation and discards the dumb cracking-of-Pittsburgh gerrymander that would have been okay in the 1950s but makes zero sense today in a city of that size.

Upper class PA cities a jump north of Philadelphia from Reading to Allentown and Bethlehem, get fair Democrat representation instead of being drawn into red or purple districts.

It would be impossible to give the Republican Philly suburb precincts representation without an ugly gerrymander; plus, 10/17 seats for the GOP in PA is enough, just like for the Dems in IL. So I left that to be.

Here it is:

https://i.imgur.com/TfpA3r7.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/nSnNuKW.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/nD8cvZI.jpg

[Millennial_Messiah]

Ron DeSantis is FUEGO!!!!! My man just rammed through the 20-8 map in Florida and some of those light blue seats could be in jeopardy down the road, too:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/florida/

#ThatsMyPresident :cry :cry :cry

[Millennial_Messiah]

Republican and Independent plaintiffs with help from neutral analysis from RCP drew this perfectly-drawn beautiful map in the state of New York. It is 16-7-3 but realistically, 16-10 especially in a 2022 type environment.

16-10 New York

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/new-york/remedial-proposal/

Creates 4 pretty solid GOP seats in the conservative part of NYC, as well as three solid GOP seats upstate and three competitive seats upstate the GOP should win most years. Rochester, Buffalo, Albany still get fair (D) representation. The shapes drawn in the NYC metro area are actually fair, neat, clean, and make sense, unlike Hochul's awful hypocritical dirty ugly gerrymander of a map. Everything is perfectly proportional and NOT gerrymandered in this new map.

The Republicans routinely win 38-39% of the vote in New York State.
And it just so happens.... 10 divided by 26 = 0.3846, * 100 = 38.46%.

This is as fair and proportional of a map as you'll ever see, and if the Democrats find a way not to pass it out of selfishness, the entire Democrat party is forever the party of the biggest braying hypocrites of all time and nobody should ever vote for them again no matter what. Also, it would confirm that the 2020 election in the purple states was a fraud.

#PassThisMap #FairNY

[ElNono]

Republican and Independent plaintiffs with help from neutral analysis from RCP drew this perfectly-drawn beautiful map in the state of New York. It is 16-7-3 but realistically, 16-10 especially in a 2022 type environment.

16-10 New York

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/new-york/remedial-proposal/

Creates 4 pretty solid GOP seats in the conservative part of NYC, as well as three solid GOP seats upstate and three competitive seats upstate the GOP should win most years. Rochester, Buffalo, Albany still get fair (D) representation. The shapes drawn in the NYC metro area are actually fair, neat, clean, and make sense, unlike Hochul's awful hypocritical dirty ugly gerrymander of a map. Everything is perfectly proportional and NOT gerrymandered in this new map.

The Republicans routinely win 38-39% of the vote in New York State.
And it just so happens.... 10 divided by 26 = 0.3846, * 100 = 38.46%.

This is as fair and proportional of a map as you'll ever see, and if the Democrats find a way not to pass it out of selfishness, the entire Democrat party is forever the party of the biggest braying hypocrites of all time and nobody should ever vote for them again no matter what. Also, it would confirm that the 2020 election in the purple states was a fraud.

#PassThisMap #FairNY

Why do conservatives only complain about "fair and balanced" on blue states, but don't apply the same rule on red states or federal elections overall?

Under the 'proportionality' rationale espoused there (which makes it a popular vote contest), neither Dubya or Trump presidential wins were "fair and balanced"...

[baseline bum]

Ron DeSantis is FUEGO!!!!! My man just rammed through the 20-8 map in Florida and some of those light blue seats could be in jeopardy down the road, too:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/florida/

#ThatsMyPresident :cry :cry :cry

So proportional and fair

[Millennial_Messiah]

Why do conservatives only complain about "fair and balanced" on blue states, but don't apply the same rule on red states or federal elections overall?

Under the 'proportionality' rationale espoused there (which makes it a popular vote contest), neither Dubya or Trump presidential wins were "fair and balanced"...
Because of the dumb 10th amendment and blue states having extremely soft voting laws, allowing for mass fraud and fake votes... dead relative votes, dog votes, robot votes, illegal alien votes... all of which, unsurprisingly, are strongly blue-voting blocs.

Give me a federal mandate on banning no-excuse mail-in ballots (voters must vote in-person with valid state ID present unless they are legally disabled or absentee due to military/US service reasons, and no early voting until one week before the election - any and all non-conforming votes shall NOT be counted) & abolish the 10th & the popular vote would swing in the other direction and you'd be clamoring to bring back the electoral college.


So proportional and fair
Oddly enough, it could be. It could be proportional and fair. 20/28 is 71.43% but in a blue wave year the (R)'s lose 2 of those so it's 18/28 which is 64.28% which is roughly what Florida will probably be by around 2030. Basically the east coast equivalent of California.

California GOP isn't fighting that map in court, while it is gerrymandered not only are the courts there very leftist but also the GOP has a distinct geography problem in CA just like they have in Massachusetts. It's not the same for NY. It's pretty easy to draw a map with 7-10 GOP seats in New York, but at the same time extremely hard to draw a proportional map in CA or MA or to give the Democrats more than 2 seats in a state like Wisconsin or give the Dems a majority in, say, PA or Ohio without gerrymandering. You really have to crack just the right cities hard in bigger-area size states to give the Dems more seats and that's, by definition, gerrymandering. Pritzker managed to get away with that exact practice in Illinois for now but we'll see if that one gets challenged in court next year. IL Dems could lose the governorship and state legislature this year.

[ElNono]

Because of the dumb 10th amendment and blue states having extremely soft voting laws, allowing for mass fraud and fake votes... dead relative votes, dog votes, robot votes, illegal alien votes... all of which, unsurprisingly, are strongly blue-voting blocs.

Give me a federal mandate on banning no-excuse mail-in ballots (voters must vote in-person with valid state ID present unless they are legally disabled or absentee due to military/US service reasons, and no early voting until one week before the election - any and all non-conforming votes shall NOT be counted) & abolish the 10th & the popular vote would swing in the other direction and you'd be clamoring to bring back the electoral college.

There were a number of GOP commissions on fraudulent voting (last one by the Trump administration no less) and they never found any evidence of such massive voter fraud. So we can do away with that canard.

Can you actually answer the question now?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Kansas Dem court throws out map with help from governor. They want a blue seat based around the Kansas side of KC. But stupid of them to strike that one down where it's still competitive and Laura Kelly is still the governor when the new GOP governor that gets elected this year will simply pass a solid 4-0 map that completely cracks out the Kansas-side KC metro area instead of just leaving it 3-0-1 for the full decade with bipartisan support.

[Ef-man]

There were a number of GOP commissions on fraudulent voting (last one by the Trump administration no less) and they never found any evidence of such massive voter fraud. So we can do away with that canard.

Can you actually answer the question now?

Millennial is too stupid to answer (he may parrot GOP talking points) so expect him to avoid the voter fraud question, especially if he has to use his own words. :lol

[ElNono]

Millennial is too stupid to answer (he may parrot GOP talking points) so expect him to avoid the voter fraud question, especially if he has to use his own words. :lol

The answer is not complicated at all... Even in states like Texas or Georgia that don't have these alleged 'fragile' voting systems, blue team always does massively great in big cities (see: Harris county).

Which is primarily why none of those states want a "fair and balanced" or "proportional" voting system at all. Heck, if they can deny you of your right to vote they sure will.

[Dirks_Finale]

The answer is not complicated at all... Even in states like Texas or Georgia that don't have these alleged 'fragile' voting systems, blue team always does massively great in big cities (see: Harris county).

Which is primarily why none of those states want a "fair and balanced" or "proportional" voting system at all. Heck, if they can deny you of your right to vote they sure will.

If Democrats can get away with sending stacks of unsolicited ballots to urban area homes, they will do it.

They can come to a compromise on election reform if they really want to, Nono.

Mandatory 2 weeks early voting

Election day becomes federal holiday?

Mandatory ID to vote. (polls very favorably, btw)

Crack down on mail in voting because people would rather shampoo their poodles than pop in and out of a voting center. :lol

Sound fair? I think it is, but it wont happen.

[Millennial_Messiah]

If Democrats can get away with sending stacks of unsolicited ballots to urban area homes, they will do it.

They can come to a compromise on election reform if they really want to, Nono.

Mandatory 2 weeks early voting

Election day becomes federal holiday?

Mandatory ID to vote. (polls very favorably, btw)

Crack down on mail in voting because people would rather shampoo their poodles than pop in and out of a voting center. :lol

Sound fair? I think it is, but it wont happen.

100%.

Election day becoming federal holiday is a nice idea but the day after election holiday should also be in that case, since literally everyone stays up until 3am or later to watch all the results finalize and all the news reactions and press conferences. Who really wants to show up at work on time the next morning? A night with no sleep is worse than a night with plentiful sleep but way too much alcohol and a hangover.

No mail in ballots except for very specific and practical reasons, as I mentioned. The biggest problems are in the cities, not the rural areas.

1 week early voting, not 2. Two is before the last debate and October surprises. People shouldn't be allowed to vote until there has been ample and sufficient time for America to fully make up its mind and form a conclusion. In 2020 there was fucking voting in September... ridiculous.

Even the excused mail in ballots should be mandated to be tallied by the election day and released to the press at the time of poll closing on election night. Any non-in-person ballots not tallied by poll closing should not count.


The answer is not complicated at all... Even in states like Texas or Georgia that don't have these alleged 'fragile' voting systems, blue team always does massively great in big cities (see: Harris county).
No question almost every big city (including every big city with any decent sized black minority or black plurality or black majority) will be blue of center, but if you look at the demographics for a place like DeKalb county GA, there's no way it should be D+70... D+30 is a more fair realistic estimate, and the gap is where the fraud ballots come in to play.

[Dirks_Finale]

100%.

Election day becoming federal holiday is a nice idea but the day after election holiday should also be in that case, since literally everyone stays up until 3am or later to watch all the results finalize and all the news reactions and press conferences. Who really wants to show up at work on time the next morning? A night with no sleep is worse than a night with plentiful sleep but way too much alcohol and a hangover.

No mail in ballots except for very specific and practical reasons, as I mentioned. The biggest problems are in the cities, not the rural areas.

1 week early voting, not 2. Two is before the last debate and October surprises. People shouldn't be allowed to vote until there has been ample and sufficient time for America to fully make up its mind and form a conclusion. In 2020 there was fucking voting in September... ridiculous.

Even the excused mail in ballots should be mandated to be tallied by the election day and released to the press at the time of poll closing on election night. Any non-in-person ballots not tallied by poll closing should not count.


No question almost every big city (including every big city with any decent sized black minority or black plurality or black majority) will be blue of center, but if you look at the demographics for a place like DeKalb county GA, there's no way it should be D+70... D+30 is a more fair realistic estimate, and the gap is where the fraud ballots come in to play.

I don't like the idea of only 1 week of early voting. Does not happen often, but I can recall a time or two in which I could see a line formed outside my normal voting station and I had to come back another day because I had other stuff to do... shorten the early voting time too much and soon it becomes similar to the long lines on election day.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I don't like the idea of only 1 week of early voting. Does not happen often, but I can recall a time or two in which I could see a line formed outside my normal voting station and I had to come back another day because I had other stuff to do... shorten the early voting time too much and soon it becomes similar to the long lines on election day.

The people who actually care about the country and not their own personal convenience will stand in line to vote, that's it and that's all, and Thread agrees with me.

[Dirks_Finale]

The people who actually care about the country and not their own personal convenience will stand in line to vote, that's it and that's all, and Thread (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=19320) agrees with me.

If you make it unnecessarily difficult to vote, you play right into liberal's hands.

[Millennial_Messiah]

If you make it unnecessarily difficult to vote, you play right into liberal's hands.

Huh? The left are the ones trying to make voting unnecessarily piss easy, eliminate "racist / xenophobic" voter ID mandates, eliminate the U.S. Citizenship requirement for voting, eliminate no-excuse mail-in ballots, etc.

I do say raise the voting age to 26 for all non-active-military personnel. Heck, the Left are the ones who deemed 26 to be the end of extended adolescence through the ACA, since apparently people are too juvenile to make decisions and live for themselves until 26.... so let that be the minimum age to vote. Drinking should be 18 though... but the cops around the college campuses would lose too much money.

[ElNono]

If Democrats can get away with sending stacks of unsolicited ballots to urban area homes, they will do it.

They can come to a compromise on election reform if they really want to, Nono.

Mandatory 2 weeks early voting

Election day becomes federal holiday?

Mandatory ID to vote. (polls very favorably, btw)

Crack down on mail in voting because people would rather shampoo their poodles than pop in and out of a voting center. :lol

Sound fair? I think it is, but it wont happen.

I think it's generally fair, though I don't agree with mail-in voting and would like to see some form of mail-in and drive-thru voting in there. Make it easier for people to vote, not harder. If your condition for that is that they need to mail-in a photocopy of their ID with it, then I'm ok with that. For drive-thru voting, the mandatory ID would cover it.

I do think it would never happen, but mostly because the right would never accept anything with mail-in, drive-thru, holiday election day and mandatory early voting...

[ElNono]

No question almost every big city (including every big city with any decent sized black minority or black plurality or black majority) will be blue of center, but if you look at the demographics for a place like DeKalb county GA, there's no way it should be D+70... D+30 is a more fair realistic estimate, and the gap is where the fraud ballots come in to play.

It has nothing to do with race or black people, big cities simply have a different dynamic when it comes to community, as decisions there affects large swaths of people and thus it makes sense they would verge toward more socialist policies.

Rural, on the other hand, is all based on what the patriarch and land owner wants, which obviously tilts more towards conservatism and can't go away soon enough, tbh

[ChumpDumper]

Crack down on mail in votingWhy does it need cracking down?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

538 has the dems a net positive of half a dozen seats from redistricting.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Seems he is just as ingenuous about what his sources are saying as he is about his age and income.

[Millennial_Messiah]

538 has the dems a net positive of half a dozen seats from redistricting.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Seems he is just as ingenuous about what his sources are saying as he is about his age and income.

Pretty much boils down to gaining +4 in each of Illinois and New York (it's 50/50 on whether or not the Dems' 22-4 gerrymander map will be ultimately replaced, but it was struck down in court twice so far). I believe the Dems gained one in Oregon and (temporarily) North Carolina for now, and lost a few elsewhere like one in Tennessee, one in Georgia, one in Arizona, et al. Texas and California were a wash and the GOP picked up a few in Florida with the DeSantis map. Michigan is complicated because both long-time (D) and (R) incumbents are at risk, but it's a red wave year. Ohio didn't get struck down by the courts in time so the GOP picked up a seat there.

At the end of the day it really hinges on what ultimately happens with the NY map. If the independents/GOP get their way, it will be a fair proportional map there, with 7-10 GOP seats, a minimum of 7 solid and 3 or even 4 competitive seats depending on the map. In that case the Florida gains will be enough to offset the Illinois losses and the net will be roughly a wash. If Hochul and the Dems get their way in NY then the Dems will have won redistricting by about +4-5 seats.


So proportional and fair
The GOP gains in Florida are ONLY enough to offset EITHER of the losses in Illinois and New York. Since IL hasn't been struck down in court yet (it won't unless Pritzker gets voted out or the state legislature in IL makes substantial (R) gains) it's really up to NY to create a far map to render the 2022 redistricting cycle a national wash.


It has nothing to do with race or black people, big cities simply have a different dynamic when it comes to community, as decisions there affects large swaths of people and thus it makes sense they would verge toward more socialist policies.

Rural, on the other hand, is all based on what the patriarch and land owner wants, which obviously tilts more towards conservatism and can't go away soon enough, tbh
That's the toxic NWO globalist progressivist preached-indoctrination woke BS that needs to be eradicated before it destroys humanity, tbh.

[baseline bum]

Pretty much boils down to gaining +4 in each of Illinois and New York (it's 50/50 on whether or not the Dems' 22-4 gerrymander map will be ultimately replaced, but it was struck down in court twice so far). I believe the Dems gained one in Oregon and (temporarily) North Carolina for now, and lost a few elsewhere like one in Tennessee, one in Georgia, one in Arizona, et al. Texas and California were a wash and the GOP picked up a few in Florida with the DeSantis map. Michigan is complicated because both long-time (D) and (R) incumbents are at risk, but it's a red wave year. Ohio didn't get struck down by the courts in time so the GOP picked up a seat there.

At the end of the day it really hinges on what ultimately happens with the NY map. If the independents/GOP get their way, it will be a fair proportional map there, with 7-10 GOP seats, a minimum of 7 solid and 3 or even 4 competitive seats depending on the map. In that case the Florida gains will be enough to offset the Illinois losses and the net will be roughly a wash. If Hochul and the Dems get their way in NY then the Dems will have won redistricting by about +4-5 seats.


The GOP gains in Florida are ONLY enough to offset EITHER of the losses in Illinois and New York. Since IL hasn't been struck down in court yet (it won't unless Pritzker gets voted out or the state legislature in IL makes substantial (R) gains) it's really up to NY to create a far map to render the 2022 redistricting cycle a national wash.

Fuck that shit with how gerrymandered Texas is.

[ElNono]

That's the toxic NWO globalist progressivist preached-indoctrination woke BS that needs to be eradicated before it destroys humanity, tbh.

You can't realistically stop cities from growing, this is why rural nowadays is such a small representation of people and why conservatives really can't pull the "fair and balanced" or "proportional" card...

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fuck that shit with how gerrymandered Texas is.

Texas didn't change in terms of partisan control from the last decade's map. Least change, defensive map was installed, rather than going aggressive even though Blexas is never, ever going to happen.

GOP will take TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34 along with keeping all their incumbents and it's going to be beautiful. Texas is trending back to GWB era red after blue team maxed out and flamed out in 2018 with Beta Male Robert Francis O'Rourke.

If you want to complain about the Texas map not being proportional, you'd be a hypocrite not to complain about California the other way as well. It's quite easy to draw a fairer map in CA as it's a large and very heterogeneous state but instead they drew a ton of D+ small margin districts...explain to me how that's not gerrymandering.


You can't realistically stop cities from growing, this is why rural nowadays is such a small representation of people and why conservatives really can't pull the "fair and balanced" or "proportional" card...
It's suburbs that are growing far more than cities... and contrary to MSM belief, they are more red than blue averaging nationally.
It's

You can't realistically stop cities from growing, this is why rural nowadays is such a small representation of people and why conservatives really can't pull the "fair and balanced" or "proportional" card...

[ElNono]

It's suburbs that are growing far more than cities... and contrary to MSM belief, they are more red than blue averaging nationally.

Not really. Suburbs expand first around the cities, but cities keep growing and absorbing those suburbs, which in turn create more suburbs around.

Also, the claim that suburbs average more red than blue is nonsense (and supported by nothing). It's really a wash, sometimes it tilts slightly more blue, sometimes it tilts slightly more red, which makes sense since they're in the middle of he more blue and red extremes.

Plenty of studies bear this out (ie: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1948550621994000)

[ElNono]

But, again, you can't be pulling the "fair and balanced" card when you only want to apply it to blue or purple regions, but not rural...

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao Cuomo 7-0 appointed court in NY strikes down Hochul's gerrymandered map, forcing a proportionate map in the state (15 or 16 solid Dem seats + 7 solid GOP seats + 3 or 4 toss-up seats) and destroying Hochul and the Left's egregious gerrymander in the state.

Take that, Hochul! Get raped, you partisan hack cunt. :toast

[Dirks_Finale]

Why does it need cracking down?

Federal regulation bad now?

[ChumpDumper]

Federal regulation bad now?

It's your characterization. Explain it.

Why does it need cracking down?

[DMC]

You can't realistically stop cities from growing, this is why rural nowadays is such a small representation of people and why conservatives really can't pull the "fair and balanced" or "proportional" card...

Putin: hold my beer

[ElNono]

Putin: hold my beer

Russia will survive Putler, tbh

[FuzzyLumpkins]

the single member district is the crux of the problem with our political system. proportional representation is so much better for so many reasons. blow up the party bilateral hegemony if nothing else.

[Th'Pusher]

the single member district is the crux of the problem with our political system. proportional representation is so much better for so many reasons. blow up the party bilateral hegemony if nothing else.

Agree with this and think it could be accomplished with ranked choice voting. I know Andrew Yang was a joke of a candidate but that was a plank of his platform that I was on board with.

[Winehole23]

NY Dems fighting in court to use an unconstitutional map.

1521878402210439168

[Winehole23]

Suplexed by his own appointee

1524427699447648261

[Millennial_Messiah]

Florida and DeSantis loses back CD-5 but the rest of the map remains in place and is likely good for the full 10 years. Not terrible, I suppose.

Kansas supreme court also went against Laura Kelly today and allowed the Republican drawn Kansas map (still a dummymander not to completely crack up the KC district) which will give the GOP a R+4 advantage in a currently (D) held seat there, formerly D+3, to become law. As it's not VRA protected it should be good for the full 10 years.

Down to Missouri... New Hampshire... and of course, what goes on in New York. Personally if the courts don't at bare minimum maintain the status quo of 7 solid (R) seats in NY, there should be a riot.

[Winehole23]

1531716856519827458

[Winehole23]

At the point where GOP run states simply ignore the courts

1532716986597261312

[Winehole23]

Contumelious GOP

1549403648249237507

[Winehole23]

SCOTUS increasingly relies on Purcell rules to keep unconstitutional maps in effect, at least for one election


“We’re seeing a revolution in courts’ willingness to allow elections to go forward under illegal or unconstitutional rules,” Richard L. Hasen, a professor at the U.C.L.A. School of Law and the director of its Safeguarding Democracy Project (http://safeguardingdemocracyproject.org/), said in an interview. “And that’s creating a situation in which states are getting one free illegal election before they have to change their rules.”

Which has led to Republicans slow-walking illegal gerrymanders, so that there's little room to contest them


Politicians have taken notice of the change. In Georgia, the Republican governor, Brian P. Kemp, waited 40 days after the legislature approved a congressional map before signing it into law, leaving a sliver of time for the succeeding court battle.

“The relevant actors are well aware of both Purcell and the court’s inconsistent application of it,” Professor Vladeck said. “So there’s plenty of upside, and very little downside, to try to manipulate the circumstances as much as possible.”https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/08/us/elections/gerrymandering-maps-elections-republicans.html

[Winehole23]

1560658840126836737

[Winehole23]

it is weird for SCOTUS to set aside court orders without any explanation. sure looks like home cooking.

1572585063300333569

[Winehole23]

simply put, if a state delays an egregious gerrymander for as long as possible, they get one free election with an illegal map.

[Winehole23]

So Alabama starts drawing its new map today, and SCOTUS still hasn't issued an order on its stay request.

We should be expect a hostile 5-4 decision if it's taking this long. IMO Clarence Thomas sides with the libs (he's been friendly on VRA redistricting cases before), with Gorsuch or Kavanaugh as the deciding vote.looks that way.

Justice Jackson went originalist this morning to pierce the myth that the 14th Amendment is supposed to be color blind.

1577318313084030976
1577319010567442435

[Winehole23]

sounds about right


The fundamental idea of the legal conservative movement is that the post-Civil War amendments aren’t really the Constitutionhttps://twitter.com/benji_cardoso/status/1577313548904046594

[Winehole23]

1577323144112635908

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FePoflJXkAAnfzC?format=png&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FePonq1WQAADMuG?format=png&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FePov4CXkAEv58L?format=png&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

What's the good government rationale for state governors hijacking redistricting?

1579791110800834560

[Winehole23]

Wisconsin can't really vote its way out of this.

1585626491315945472

[Will Hunting]

Wisconsin can't really vote its way out of this.

1585626491315945472
SCOTUS intervening in Wisconsin's state leg redistricting process due to a few sentences of dicta about the Voting Rights Act that Hagedorn included in his state supreme court opinion that adopted Evers' state leg map is a new low in terms of bad faith judicial activism.

The Wisconsin GOP filed cert with SCOTUS as a total Hail Mary and was stunned when SCOTUS granted their request. In 2019, SCOTUS clearly said in Rucho that federal courts have no jurisdiction over partisan gerrymandering disputes, then in 2022 when the WI GOP wanted its hyper gerrymandered state leg map adopted SCOTUS basically says "lol just kidding we can intervene when it helps Republicans"

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgF_nJNaYAA5NEg?format=jpg&name=mediumhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgF_nJNaYAA5NEg?format=jpg&name=medium

[Winehole23]

1590232336448524288

[Winehole23]

even with the most illegal map in the world against them, the Dems managed to pick up a seat in Ohio.

1590242200285511682

[TimDunkem]

:lol

[Winehole23]

1590344762141605890

[Will Hunting]

Mid-decade redistricting we're now going to see:

- With a conservative NC Supreme Court, the GOP will pass a ruthless map. Probably a 10R - 4D map, with one of the D districts being a black belt district that'll turn red due to population loss.
- The Minnesota Dems have legal grounds to draw a new map since the current map is court drawn, and they should. Make Angie Craig's district bluer and make MN-01 a Biden district.
- If the Dems win the Wisconsin supreme court seat next year, they're definitely going to sue and have all the maps redrawn to be fairer.
- The Ohio GOP could be aggressive and try to draw harsher maps with a GOP SC majority but I think they keep their map the same
- If the SC miraculously rules that the VRA requires a 2nd black Alabama district, that'd be another Dem pickup