FiveThirtyEight: 2021-22 NBA Projections

[Drom John]

With the 8th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the San Antonio Spurs select ... (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/)

36-46, 12th in the West.
-1.8 point differential
21% make playoffs.
0.2% make finals.
<0.1% Seis.

[Seventyniner]

Seems plausible to me. I'd take the under on the win total, but not by a whole lot; I'm expecting around 33.

If the playoffs were normal, as in none of this play-in stuff, the Spurs' playoff chances would be like 3% imo. But the ability to finish 10th and just get hot for 2 games to get in is a game changer.

And yes, I would love to see the Spurs in the playoffs even if they get swept in round 1. Just win, baby.

[R. DeMurre]

The last win projection/ Vegas betting line I saw was for 28.5 wins...

[Mr. Body]

That site is normally terrible at sports projections. This one I agree with, though. I feel like the Spurs will be competitive and surprise some people, but won't have enough punch to make it in.

[exstatic]

The last win projection/ Vegas betting line I saw was for 28.5 wins...

For the hundredth time: Vegas isn’t in the prediction business. Casuals have always, and will always underestimate the Spurs, and not bet on them, causing Vegas to lower their o/u for the Spurs to get the money even on both sides of the bet, so that the losers pay the winners. That’s how it’s done. That’s also why betting lines and o/u changes. If a bunch of smart people bet the over, the o/u number would go up.

[Harry Callahan]

Well, the GSW GM is no longer five years ahead of everyone else. Didn't last all that long.....

[mo7888]

That seems like a generous prediction to me. If we don't win our opener (which we should) I'm not sure we win a game until the middle of November.

[BackHome]

I see us winning 26 to 30 range a lot will depend on certain players staying healthy- But I see us getting the 5th or 6th pick in the next draft.

[exstatic]

I see us winning 26 to 30 range a lot will depend on certain players staying healthy- But I see us getting the 5th or 6th pick in the next draft.

That won’t put us in 5th pick range. You have to race the blatant tankers into the teens for that,

[bluebellmaniac]

The last win projection/ Vegas betting line I saw was for 28.5 wins...

I'd take the over on that... But wouldn't bet the farm in it.

[SPURt]

Pop needs 35 to set the record? 36-46 would do it. I’m gonna say 82-0 this season, gonna shock the world!

[R. DeMurre]

For the hundredth time: Vegas isn’t in the prediction business. Casuals have always, and will always underestimate the Spurs, and not bet on them, causing Vegas to lower their o/u for the Spurs to get the money even on both sides of the bet, so that the losers pay the winners. That’s how it’s done. That’s also why betting lines and o/u changes. If a bunch of smart people bet the over, the o/u number would go up.

Yeah, that's why I specifically wrote "/vegas betting line." Vegas also isn't in the lose-a lot-of-money business, which is why they're less sentimental than most other predictions.

[R. DeMurre]

I'd take the over on that... But wouldn't bet the farm in it.

Exactly. Same here. The winnings/odds are nothing special for the Spurs over/under. I took 10-1 odds on Milwaukee a month before the playoffs last season and cashed in-- that was nice. The long shots I bet on this week were Scottie Barnes for ROY at +1200, Josh Giddey at +3300, and Trey Murphy lll at +10,000. The more I look at Murphy, the more I like that bet. He has played great in summer league and preseason, and is a position of need on a mediocre team. The minutes will be there. That $40 bet pays $4000 if it happens. A much better bet than the Spurs at +20,000 to win the championship or at -150 to win 30 games.

[Maddog]

That seems like a generous prediction to me. If we don't win our opener (which we should) I'm not sure we win a game until the middle of November.

I was looking at the schedule and thinking the same thing.
I'm thinking mid 20s as far as wins. IF, a couple of players take a significant step forward mid 30s.
I see a lot of defensive potential for this team- but think it will struggle to score