21 Random Thoughts Heading Into the 2021-22 Season

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/21-thoughts-san-antonio-spurs-embark-2021-22-season/

Along with a win prediction :smokin

[SpurPadre]

Zach Lowe has us as the 4th worst team in the league, FWIW.

[Uriel]

38 wins. So close to 40. :lol

[baseline bum]

38 wins LJ? Pass me whatever it is you're smoking bro.

[Mugen]

"38 wins" might be the Spurs equivalent of "This will all blow over by Easter" :lol

[Robz4000]

:lol 38 wins. Honestly, they'll be lucky to win half that.

[John B]

Nice write-up. I’m rooting the most for Lonnie to have a breakout season. I was really excited for Samanic to finally get his chance, but that ship has sailed. I like Vassell to have a breakout season as well. Keldon, I didn’t really see anything new in the pre-season. I was hoping he’ll come back with some mid-range games. I can’t be too high with Primo knowing he needs some burn in Austin. I will say I’m excited for the young group to finally prove themselves, but then again I thought we would sign a John Collins or Simmons in the off-season, or even trade for a high draft pick. Instead we cut Samanic and we signed an injured player plus a returning Forbes. So don’t blame me if I’m not that high right now. I will watch the games, but I can’t say I will be investing too much hopes, ‘coz it might just be a very long season.
Still, Go Spurs Go! :flag:

[mo7888]

I think by mid November we'll be in such a hole that it'll be hard to clib out of....I'm taking the under on the 28.5 if we don't make any trades..

[Mr. Body]

1. Murray would be in the All-Star reserve conversation but the record won't permit it. Not that shitty records don't get in the way of worse players getting berths (looking at the terrible Brandon Ingram).

2. I don't see White putting it back together. I hope he does.

3. Keldon Johnson's ceiling is lower than most everybody cares to admit. Great energy guy, but he's limited and always will be.

4. It'll be unfortunate Landale is stuck as a third stringer. Hot take: we may see him as a PF.

5. Walker won't put it together, but he'll get tantalyzingly closer.

6. Vassell will start looking like a tremendous glue guy. He won't get any press, but will continually make plays.

7. Primo will come back to the main team in January and start tilting games in the Spurs' favor off the bench.

8. This board will fall in love with some other marginal headcase star after Ben Simmons gets exiled to Minnesota. No one will remember being obsessed with him.

9. This board will whine about Popovich without realizing he's a major reason the team is winning when it is and decent talent is playing over their heads.

Win total will be mid to late 30s. They'll overwhelm teams some nights when things are clicking. Other nights, they'll struggle to grind things out. The sports media should remark upon this feat, but the team will be utterly ignored.

[KobesAchilles]

Very hard to see us worse than OKC, Minn, Houston. We are a Zion injury away from being better than the Pelicans. And a Fox injury away from being better than the shitty Kings. Man if we are 10th again in the west imma lose it

[John B]

Very hard to see us worse than OKC, Minn, Houston. We are a Zion injury away from being better than the Pelicans. And a Fox injury away from being better than the shitty Kings. Man if we are 10th again in the west imma lose it

When we start competing against the bottom feeders :depressed

[rastaspur]

Good breakdown.

I predicted earlier a range of 34 to 37 wins. So I'm not going to get on a soap box about the 38 win prediction like 3veryone else.

[Rummpd]

31 wins

[Dejounte]

31 wins

How many wins for your team, the Wizards?

[Seventyniner]

38 is too much for me. That's good enough for 10th place in most seasons, putting the Spurs a 2-game hot streak away from a playoff berth.

I'm going to go over 28.5 too, just not that much over. 32-33 sounds right to me.

[superbigtime]

You wouldn't be stunned if walker leads the spurs in scoring? seriously?

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

You wouldn't be stunned if walker leads the spurs in scoring? seriously?

Who's the tallest midget?

30 wins seems about right tbh

[spurs10]

Thanks OP, good piece. Anything can happen and I'll be watching. Thinking our wins will be in 30's. I'm just going to try to reprogram my brain and not expect W's. I really enjoyed the pre-season game I went to Friday. Now we did win, but it was fun watching the players.

:flag:

[pad300]

38 wins... Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

[ismael-robert]

Patty with best plus minus outscoring everyone but durant. 7/7 3s. Brynn got his work cut out

[raybies]

I'm predicting 40 wins

[kht]

Zach Lowe has us as the 4th worst team in the league, FWIW.

In the league? Hell no. In the west? Possibly.

[playbonner15]

Zach Lowe has us as the 4th worst team in the league, FWIW.

I'd be surprised if this team snatches the 8th seed

[The Truth #6]

1. Murray would be in the All-Star reserve conversation but the record won't permit it. Not that shitty records don't get in the way of worse players getting berths (looking at the terrible Brandon Ingram).

2. I don't see White putting it back together. I hope he does.

3. Keldon Johnson's ceiling is lower than most everybody cares to admit. Great energy guy, but he's limited and always will be.

4. It'll be unfortunate Landale is stuck as a third stringer. Hot take: we may see him as a PF.

5. Walker won't put it together, but he'll get tantalyzingly closer.

6. Vassell will start looking like a tremendous glue guy. He won't get any press, but will continually make plays.

7. Primo will come back to the main team in January and start tilting games in the Spurs' favor off the bench.

8. This board will fall in love with some other marginal headcase star after Ben Simmons gets exiled to Minnesota. No one will remember being obsessed with him.

9. This board will whine about Popovich without realizing he's a major reason the team is winning when it is and decent talent is playing over their heads.

Win total will be mid to late 30s. They'll overwhelm teams some nights when things are clicking. Other nights, they'll struggle to grind things out. The sports media should remark upon this feat, but the team will be utterly ignored.

Good stuff.

[Proxy]

Going with 40, lots of players with something to prove meshing that enjoy playing with each other, bryn and mcdermott having some good shooting streaks to steal some fools gold rs wins

[Seventyniner]

In the league? Hell no. In the west? Possibly.

50th best. In Georgia.

[Maddog]

I think by mid November we'll be in such a hole that it'll be hard to clib out of....I'm taking the under on the 28.5 if we don't make any trades..


I'm with you
I'm going mid 20s (we need a poll)

For this team to win in the upper 30s several things have to happen and the odds of all those things happening are slim.
Lonnie, White and Vassell would need to take significant steps forward. I'll be happy if just one of them makes a huge step forward, ecstatic if two. To date there is no inclination that that White or Walker will have a breakout season. There have been tantilizing hints at potential but still just hints at this time. I'm also with Mr. Body in that as much as I love Keldon Johnson, I think this ceiling is more limited than most.

[lefty]

21

Aha like Tim's number!!!!!


https://wompampsupport.azureedge.net/fetchimage?siteId=7575&v=2&jpgQuality=100&width=700&url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.kym-cdn.com%2Fentries%2Ficons%2Foriginal%2F000%2F033%2 F487%2Frick.jpg

[rjv]

i'm stuck in that purgatorial space where i want the spurs to win as many games as they can and to make a push for a playoff spot and just barely getting pop his record while still creating greater odds for a top 5 lottery pick

[Fireball]

28 wins

[The Truth #6]

I think DJ, Drew, Tre, and Vassel will improve this year but maybe no one else.

With KJ, I wonder if this is a rare case where him being at the Olympics doesn’t actually translate to him having an improved year. I mean, he was basically there as a role player, whereas we need him to develop skills to be a star.

I think White and Yak will be solid and have some hot streaks.

I initially said 35, but 32 might be more realistic. We need some time to see how they gel. Could be some hot streaks. Hopefully there is progress.

[MultiTroll]

Did these 21 random thoughts occur in various locations?

Like were they all from the computer chair? Or were some in the garage while changing cars oil?

[Uriel]

Zach Lowe has us as the 4th worst team in the league, FWIW.
I think that was the watchability rankings, not the actual power rankings.

[GreekSpursfan]

If we manage 38 wins with this roster Pop should be named coach of this year, next year and the year after, f it, permanent coach of the year and for the first time ever i will hate him for it.

[MannyIsGod]

38 wins is high, but the Vegas O/U is also low, IMO. If you look at a numerical model like 538, they have us in the mid 30s. That seems about right, IMO. The Spurs could be one of the best defensive teams in the league. They have probably the best defensive backcourt in the league, and a top 3 defensive center. KJ holds his own, and while McDermott isn't great, that's one person to hide. On the second unit, Eubanks is vastly underrated defensively, and Vassel will do a good job there as well. Lonnie isn't good, but with some improvement he can be serviceable. He probably won't be, though, lets be real. But either way, when the Spurs need stops they should be able to get them at a fairly high rate due to their starters being excellent at that. Having a good defense will mean the Spurs are in a LOT of game and while the offense will probably be fucking putrid at times, they will also have games where they hit a lot of shots and look great. It will be very difficult for this game to win under 30 games, IMO.

[exstatic]

I think by mid November we'll be in such a hole that it'll be hard to clib out of....I'm taking the under on the 28.5 if we don't make any trades..

That wouldn’t be smart. Spurs always get short sold.

[exstatic]

I mean, we won 33 and 32 games the last two seasons, and both were short seasons, not 82 games. We got rid of our Paleozoic offensive black hole, shored up the defense, and added long distance shooters.

[Maddog]

If we manage 38 wins with this roster Pop should be named coach of this year, next year and the year after, f it, permanent coach of the year and for the first time ever i will hate him for it.

In another thread I said almost the same thing-If they win any where near 40 they'll rename the coy award the Pop award.
I could easily be wrong, but I really think this team will struggle. That said, I'm OK with the direction.

[SAGirl]

Thanks for the comments. Enjoyable read, also basically the same things we all look up to, but nicely articulated.

I’d like to see Primo get playing time and I think he could very well absorb Bryn Forbes minutes. It doesn’t matter if a very young lottery pick needs to improve a few things if they can already do others at an NBA level, but saving myself my annual frustration with Pop playing vets over their young talents, I am bracing myself for him in the Gleague.

Make no mistake Pop still has vets in this team that he can go to when his patience with youngster mistakes is thin, this year the most notable is Bryn. He has played well offensively, his role anyways, but this team is heading nowhere fast if he’s your best pound for pound, inch for inch offensive player. I’d rather invest my limited watching time contemplating how someone is getting better or stumbling here and there but learning lessons, than watching a team relying on Forbes too much. How much Pop relies on him will be a test for me.

Otherwise we agree on a lot and as always its really nice to read your writing. :toast

[SAGirl]

1. Murray would be in the All-Star reserve conversation but the record won't permit it. Not that shitty records don't get in the way of worse players getting berths (looking at the terrible Brandon Ingram).

2. I don't see White putting it back together. I hope he does.

3. Keldon Johnson's ceiling is lower than most everybody cares to admit. Great energy guy, but he's limited and always will be.

4. It'll be unfortunate Landale is stuck as a third stringer. Hot take: we may see him as a PF.

5. Walker won't put it together, but he'll get tantalyzingly closer.

6. Vassell will start looking like a tremendous glue guy. He won't get any press, but will continually make plays.

7. Primo will come back to the main team in January and start tilting games in the Spurs' favor off the bench.

8. This board will fall in love with some other marginal headcase star after Ben Simmons gets exiled to Minnesota. No one will remember being obsessed with him.

9. This board will whine about Popovich without realizing he's a major reason the team is winning when it is and decent talent is playing over their heads.

Win total will be mid to late 30s. They'll overwhelm teams some nights when things are clicking. Other nights, they'll struggle to grind things out. The sports media should remark upon this feat, but the team will be utterly ignored.
Hey!
I really liked your opinions here and do agree with them. I think they will be lower than LJ predicted in wins, but your last statement kind of sums up how I feel about them. I think they are bound to have some hot shooting months where someone like White who has been struggling suddenly gets hot and ends up increasing his shooting percentage with a hot shooting month, or something to that effect. I do think they will have games where they will be clicking and batting above average, but they will not be able to maintain that because of the lack of star… that is what stars do after all. They show up to dominate every night and the Spurs don’t have a guy that can be consistent every night. On that vein, there will be some heartbreakers, games where they are close at the end but can’t close things out, and even games like last season’s against Boston, where they have an early lead and can’t prevent a come back because a star player is having a huge game against them.

[Mugen]

Anybody else with minimal excitement for this opener and the upcoming season? I mean most intelligent fans already know what's going to happen:

-We'll see minimal leaps from the young(ish) guys (DJ, Derrick, and I guess Keldon).
-The same terrible rotations we've been seeing for the last 3 years now (eg Bryn and McDermott taking big mins away from Keldon, Vassell, Lonnie, Tre)
-Like would anybody really be surprised if Bryn led the team in minutes this year? :lol
-Primo going to be glued to Austin except maybe for the last few weeks of the season

I don't even care about Wins/Losses, the Rockets will be worse than the Spurs but they'll be more entertaining to watch with a top 3 pick on the roster.

The Derozan years were horrible but man I can't really get excited watching this team play until they have all star talent on the roster and you know who is far away from the coach's bench :lol

[mo7888]

That wouldn’t be smart. Spurs always get short sold.

You could be correct... I don't see it yet though... revisit this mid November and how you feel about it then..

[exstatic]

You could be correct... I don't see it yet though... revisit this mid November and how you feel about it then..
Everybody has bad portions of the schedule. That means at some point, we’ll have an easy stretch with a bundle of home games. Thinking they’re going to go under the O/U is just flat negativity.

[tim_duncan_fan]

We're going to win 43 games this year.

[exstatic]

We're going to win 43 games this year.

THAT may be more than a tad optimistic. People who think I’m a sniffer need to bookmark this ish.

[mo7888]

Everybody has bad portions of the schedule. That means at some point, we’ll have an easy stretch with a bundle of home games. Thinking they’re going to go under the O/U is just flat negativity.

Then come back mid December and revisit this if it suits you better...

[wildbill2u]

Might as well have simply put question marks behind the name of every player? And every one has more than one question mark representing issues for the coming season. Predicting games is even more of a gamble since there are so many question marks?

[exstatic]

Then come back mid December and revisit this if it suits you better...

I think I’ll evaluate it in mid April. That’s when the season ends.


Toward the end of "Charlie Wilson's War," a CIA officer played by the pitch-perfect Philip Seymour Hoffman cautions the Wilson character (played by Tom Hanks) not to be too sure they have done something glorious. To make the point, he tells the story of a Zen master who observes the people of his village celebrating a young boy's new horse as a wonderful gift. "We'll see," the Zen master says. When the boy falls off the horse and breaks a leg, everyone says the horse is a curse. "We'll see," says the master. Then war breaks out, the boy cannot be conscripted because of his injury, and everyone now says the horse was a fortunate gift. "We'll see," the master says again.

[timvp]

"38 wins" might be the Spurs equivalent of "This will all blow over by Easter" :lol

:lol, tbh.

[Russ]

One thing that may be overlooked is the Spurs' (possible) ability to wear down teams with their style of play and their waves of relatively young bodies.

It won't make them an elite team but it could allow them to overachieve based upon the conventional projections.

Last year, the Spurs had an iso scorer (or two before LMA left) and the opponent could relax on defense. Gentleman's truce. Both the Spurs and the defense just sat around and watched. It conserved a lot of energy for the opponent.

Pop was uncomfortable with that approach and it showed.

Now Pop has a team he can coach just the way he wants to, lots of ball movement, pure basketball, no stars to defer to, lots of running -- a coach's game as much as is possible in the modern NBA.

It could fall flat, but it could also succeed, perhaps even coax a new dynamic into the NBA equation.

Pop will be looking to tire the opposition with old-fashioned ball movement and maybe even movement without the ball. It's the pure way he's always wanted to play. And, fortunately(?), he has no other options.

[mo7888]

I think I’ll evaluate it in mid April. That’s when the season ends.

Suits me...but you'll know way before then...

[exstatic]

Suits me...but you'll know way before then...

We’ll see…

[mo7888]

We’ll see…

Agreed

[timvp]

38 wins LJ? Pass me whatever it is you're smoking bro.

The logic I'm clinging to:

-DeRozan is a proven net-negative player. I know the offense will be worse without him but does losing a net-negative player really hurt your team? It'll hurt in certain situations but I struggle to figure how it'd be a catastrophic loss.

-Losing Mills and Gay will hurt the bench's cohesion -- which actually worries me more than anything, tbh. But, then again, Mills was garbage the second half of the season and Gay had his pluses and minuses as a player.

-Murray, White, Johnson, Walker, Vassell, etc. should all be better. Even someone like Poeltl should be a little bit. The vast majority of the roster is, in theory, in an upward trajectory when it comes to their growth.

-Pop, if he cares to, can now coach as hard as he wants without having to tiptoe around "stars" on the roster. I mean, DeRozan didn't seem like he was ever a problem to coach but it also seemed like Pop never pushed him, especially on defense.

-The Spurs were a 37-38 win team last year ... and that was with, what, ten games of peak White?

So, yeah, I don't think 38 is unreasonable. Maybe I'm missing something but I feel good about that guess.

[timvp]

One thing that may be overlooked is the Spurs' (possible) ability to wear down teams with their style of play and their waves of relatively young bodies.

It won't make them an elite team but it could allow them to overachieve based upon the conventional projections.

Last year, the Spurs had an iso scorer (or two before LMA left) and the opponent could relax on defense. Gentleman's truce. Both the Spurs and the defense just sat around and watched. It conserved a lot of energy for the opponent.

Pop was uncomfortable with that approach and it showed.

Now Pop has a team he can coach just the way he wants to, lots of ball movement, pure basketball, no stars to defer to, lots of running -- a coach's game as much as is possible in the modern NBA.

It could fall flat, but it could also succeed, perhaps even coax a new dynamic into the NBA equation.

Pop will be looking to tire the opposition with old-fashioned ball movement and maybe even movement without the ball. It's the pure way he's always wanted to play. And, fortunately(?), he has no other options.

Yeah, I'm smoking on this, too.

Pop now has no excuses with this current roster. No more walking on egg shells.

But, uh, does Pop even care enough about wins and losses to coach up this team? I'm not sure, tbh. If he gave an Olympic-sized effort, I'd be feeling really good about 38 wins . . .

[timvp]

You wouldn't be stunned if walker leads the spurs in scoring? seriously?

I don't care enough to look back but I think Walker was the team's leading scorer in games DeRozan missed. Or at least he was until later in the season. I think Mugen or someone was tracking it at one point, IIRC.

[DAF86]

I'm rooting for:

1) a winning season, even if it's just 43 wins.

2) if not, the worst record in the league.

Please no more 38 wins seasons.

[baseline bum]

The logic I'm clinging to:

-DeRozan is a proven net-negative player. I know the offense will be worse without him but does losing a net-negative player really hurt your team? It'll hurt in certain situations but I struggle to figure how it'd be a catastrophic loss.

-Losing Mills and Gay will hurt the bench's cohesion -- which actually worries me more than anything, tbh. But, then again, Mills was garbage the second half of the season and Gay had his pluses and minuses as a player.

-Murray, White, Johnson, Walker, Vassell, etc. should all be better. Even someone like Poeltl should be a little bit. The vast majority of the roster is, in theory, in an upward trajectory when it comes to their growth.

-Pop, if he cares to, can now coach as hard as he wants without having to tiptoe around "stars" on the roster. I mean, DeRozan didn't seem like he was ever a problem to coach but it also seemed like Pop never pushed him, especially on defense.

-The Spurs were a 37-38 win team last year ... and that was with, what, ten games of peak White?

So, yeah, I don't think 38 is unreasonable. Maybe I'm missing something but I feel good about that guess.

Walker and McDermott are even worse defensively than DePression and then there is this guy

https://i.ibb.co/vHgHgNs/forms.jpg

[Mugen]

I don't care enough to look back but I think Walker was the team's leading scorer in games DeRozan missed. Or at least he was until later in the season. I think Mugen (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=15519) or someone was tracking it at one point, IIRC.

That sounds way too helpful to be me tbh :lol

I do remember Lonnie putting up some 20+ point games when Derozan sat last year

[Mugen]

:lol Exactly, I'd feel okay about a 35-40 wins prediction if that fucking scrub Forbes wasn't in line to lead this team in mpg tbh

[GreekSpursfan]

In another thread I said almost the same thing-If they win any where near 40 they'll rename the coy award the Pop award.
I could easily be wrong, but I really think this team will struggle. That said, I'm OK with the direction.

Finally we're heading in the right direction but i'm afraid Pop might do it, he might win 40 games

[superbigtime]

I don't care enough to look back but I think Walker was the team's leading scorer in games DeRozan missed. Or at least he was until later in the season. I think Mugen (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=15519) or someone was tracking it at one point, IIRC.

was surprised to see him hoist 17 shots in gm 1, so that's a good sign.

[exstatic]

was surprised to see him hoist 17 shots in gm 1, so that's a good sign.

Well, everything he puts up counts as a shot, since he’s allergic to drawing fouls.

[superbigtime]

Well, everything he puts up counts as a shot, since he’s allergic to drawing fouls.

what do you think of walker this year?

[exstatic]

what do you think of walker this year?

He seemed more aggressive last night, and that’s good, but I’m not sure his offensive instincts are much better than his defensive ones. His cardinal sin, one he does over and over, is that he picks up the ball too soon on a drive, leading to a much more difficult shot, and almost no chance to draw a foul with whatever awkward shot goes up.

[John B]

Yeah, I'm smoking on this, too.

Pop now has no excuses with this current roster. No more walking on egg shells.

But, uh, does Pop even care enough about wins and losses to coach up this team? I'm not sure, tbh. If he gave an Olympic-sized effort, I'd be feeling really good about 38 wins . . .

I don’t like going back to the DJ incident in the huddle. But that left me a bitter taste, and I’m still trying to look pass that. Because if anyone, he seemed like the “eggshell” who Pop tries not to bark at. And sometimes I cringe at the way Pop does it, but in the spirit of playing better? All hands on deck, from DJ to the last man, and firstly on DJ as he is seemingly the heir apparent leader of the team.