How are your rookies doing? A follow-up to the 2021 NBA Draft, 15+ games in...

[Dejounte]

Players I liked

Franz Wagner


Franz was one of my top prospects during pre-draft. Looks like he's doing okay as a starter. Against the Spurs, he was quite a menace on defense with his hands on everything. I recall many folks thinking he wasn't quick enough or athletic enough for the NBA. Doesn't look that way to me. He's defending his matchups quite well and isn't getting pushed around.

https://twitter.com/CjHolmes22/status/1461169135401029634

https://twitter.com/bluebyninety/status/1461166034816278528

Do I still think he has All-Star potential? Hmm... I don't know. I think what he's proven thus far though is he won't be a bust (and that can be defined in many ways, but to me a bust is a player who will bounce from team to team)

Josh Giddey

Giddey's weakness was and still is shooting but he looks like an NBA player for sure and isn't as much of a liability on the court due to the other things he brings. Before the draft, I emphasized his ball handling ability (not ball security) as the one factor that sets him apart from the rest and it looks like he's doing great because he can handle the ball great for a guy his size (look at Keldon who can't take more than two dribbles before passing it out).

Do I still think he has All-Star potential? Probably not... but he's looking like young Ricky Rubio out there. He's got a long career ahead of him.

Chris Duarte

Started off really hot, and then got injured. He's really playing like I expected him to... just a killer scorer with high basketball IQ. Kevin Durant had this to say about him:

"I like Duarte. We played them a couple weeks ago," said Durant, a two-time NBA champion and two-time Finals MVP. "He remind me of a old-school shooting guard. He's quick off the catch, can shoot the midrange (jumper) off the couple dribbles, too. He got good size. I like him. I like him a lot."

Seeing as how the Spurs are faring 15 games in makes me glad he wasn't selected. While he would provide the ISO scoring and 3-point shooting the team sorely needs, it wouldn't be enough in the long run.

Bright future for him though.

James Bouknight


I pegged this guy with All-Star potential, but I'm leaning more now towards 6th man of the year type, microwave scorer.

Moses Moody

It was a shocker to see this guy fall past the Spurs, but from what I've seen it is justified. He looks like a mid-first round talent, and not a top 10 one which everyone had thought he was. He'll have maybe a good career as a 3 and D type-- he looks a bit slow out there.

Isaiah Jackson

I didn't like this guy at all in the beginning, but liked him more as it got closer to the draft. He's doing superb in the g-league, and he looks like he'll be a monster C in a couple years. Probably not a star, but a damn good center.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

I knew this guy would be an NBA contributor. Doing well as a starter for the Thunder right now. Not bad for a guy projected as a 2nd rounder all year long.

Alperen Sengun

I hesitate to put Sengun under this list since I wasn't exactly in love with the idea of drafting him. But I know for sure he doesn't belong under players I didn't like. It looks like the shitty coaches are playing him very minimally for some reason. I'm personally not that impressed with his play because he looks too undersized for his style of play, which is also resulting in frequent foul trouble. I don't see stardom in Sengun's future.

Players I didn't like


Jalen Green

I said from the start that he reminded me a lot of Dejounte Murray. Folks said he was ten times better. This dude is being hated on by Rockets fans. He has zero awareness on defense, and is physically weak to get anything done on offense. He has been a really bad three point shooter. He may be like Dejounte Murray, but he won't get the coaching Dejounte Murray had. Rockets' fans are wishing they drafted Mobley instead. Jalen's being given all the minutes Spurs fans wish the Spurs would give Primo, and I don't think it's doing Jalen any favors at all. He's out there developing terrible habits and isn't being told anything when he fucks up a defensive assignment.

Scottie Barnes

Scottie was killing it during the beginning of the season. I didn't like Scottie for the fact that he looked like he got lost on offense a lot. I don't follow the Raptors closely, so I don't know if that's still the case. I think I underestimated how much his intensity and athleticism could carry him to be a solid contributor. Now it remains to be seen if he'll develop further into a player who can be relied on for offense. Right now, he's not a good 3-point shooter.

Ziaire Williams

I said this guy was garbage and he still looks like garbage. Waste of a pick by the Grizzlies.

Jalen Johnson

Right now, he's in the g-league. He's playing as well as you'd expect him to. Main issue with him was perimeter defense and character concerns. I don't have time to check on the former, and the latter will be revealed in the future when or if the Hawks ever bring him up to the main club.

Kai Jones

My qualms with Kai was his low basketball IQ and shot selection. Very odd that he can't earn playing time with the main club as their center rotation is bad right now.

Jaden Springer

I didn't want another guard who is in love with shooting from mid-range or inside the paint, and that's what it still looks like what he is.

What I learned from the 2021 draft and how that will adjust the way I look at rookies in 2022

From the 2020 draft, I learned from Jalen Smith that bigs who aren't mobile on the perimeter won't make it in the modern NBA unless they're strictly a center.

From the 2021 draft, I think a unicorn player with size and evident lateral quickness shouldn't be underestimated (talking about Scottie Barnes here). Guys like him won't end up on my "do not like" list going forward, but they won't be super high either if they have the lack of basketball fundamentals and lack of shooting Scottie has.

Also from the 2021 draft, there was absolutely no way to catch a player like Primo unless you're playing close attention. Primo exhibited none of the ball handling skills he's showing today in college.

...How many people will admit they were wrong about players that they were crazy for? I know it's still early, but if we are years in and they are wrong, will they admit it?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I liked Moody a lot as a Vassell type of player. It'll take him a while to show it if he has it because he's buried in the deep GS roster and that's even before Klay's back. However, compared to Primo, from the little we've seen from them Primo looks like he has way more potential. Now, he may not pan out, but it's completely understandable that they went with the high upside player.

I thought Mobley wouldn't be as good as he's been so early. Like, not even close. Might bode well for other skinny but mobile defenders like Chet.

Thought Suggs was the most prepared for the NBA of all, but he's been very disappointing, not just as raw numbers but overall impact. Nowhere close to a rookie Lamelo for example.

There are many other examples. Apparently I've been a terrible talent evaluator for the 15th draft in a row :lol

[John B]

So how are you ranking Primo at this early?

[Gibbz]

Scottie Barnes is the 2nd-best rookie behind Mobley and Wagner is #3. I'd still take Jalen Green's upside over Wagner.

[Biggems]

Sengun was my guy. He is playing 19 min a game, with 9 pts, 5 rbs, 2 ast, 1 stl, and 3 fouls. He is shooting 47%, 41% from 3, but only 66% from FT. He has missed 19 FTs already. Aside from his FTs, I feel he is having a solid rookie year, adjusting to the speed and strength of the players.

[KobesAchilles]

Better than Primo

[slick'81]

So how are you ranking Primo at this early?

he hasnt played so,tbd?

[John B]

he hasnt played so,tbd?
I guess the initial shock is gone. For what he’s shown, he’s deserving of the 12th pick and could even be better.

I still like Jalen Johnson because he is the position in need.

Duarte would’ve been a great pick… for a contender as he is NBA ready, but we are not so. In retrospect, I’m happy with Joe at 2nd draft if he pans out, athletic and can shoot, Duncan Robinson type, and hopefully he takes Forbes minutes eventually.

In general I’m happy with Spurs’ picks. Jalen Johnson could be someone who got away, IF he turned to be a a good character guy, with all his natural gifts.

[mo7888]

My final top 10 looked like this:
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Evan Mobley
3. Jonathan Kuminga
4. Franz Wagner
5. Jalen Green
6. Scottie Barnes
7. Jalen Suggs
8. Moses Moody
9. Alperen Sengun
10. James Bouknight

It's early but I feel pretty good about my board... I knew Kuminga was a longer-term prospect. A couple have under performed either due to actual performance or lack of expected gametime.

[Uriel]

I wonder how many of us are going to feel remorse for lambasting the Primo pick once he makes it into the Hall of Fame :lol

[szkorhetz]

I wonder how many of us are going to feel remorse for lambasting the Primo pick once he makes it into the Hall of Fame :lol
He won't

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

I really liked Franz a lot and I’m happy he is playing well for Orlando. My favorite for us was Sengun and I think he should get more run for Houston. Dude knows how to play and even though he has physical disadvantages, when given run he has put up numbers for Houston


Jalen Green was admittedly the guy in the top half of the draft that I thought would turn into a star and the best player in this class and the poor guy is struggling right now. Ant-man for Minnesota struggled early his rookie season and started to figure it out so I still have hope for Jalen this season. He definitely has to hit the weights and check out more game film but the physical gifts and shot making abilities are there.

[exstatic]

I guess the initial shock is gone. For what he’s shown, he’s in the 12th pick and could be better.

I still like Jalen Johnson because he is the position in need.

Duarte would’ve been a great pick for a contender as he is NBA ready. In retrospect, Joe is a better pick at 2nd draft if he pans out, athletic and can shoot, Duncan Robinson type, and hopefully takes Forbes minutes eventually.

in general I’m happy with Spurs picks. Jalen Johnson would be someone who got away IF he turned to be a a good character guy with all his natural gifts.

:lol. Good character guy…

[The Truth #6]

I was all in on Sengun at the time and want to see more of him. Most of the players I “liked” were who I thought may be either in our range or could be good values if we traded down.

I liked JRE as a value pick. I liked Lil Weezy and he seems to progressing well.

I defended Jaden Springer as having Brandon Roy potential but haven’t seen him play yet.

But we need a difference maker and Primo fits what we need, so hopefully that works out.

[Drom John]

Basketball-Reference top 14 draftees by WS and WS/48.
Why B-R? Because it's an easy find and easy sort.

WS
1.4 Evan Mobley
1.1 Scottie Barnes
0.7 Alperen Senjun, Jeremiah Robertson-Earl
0.6 Franz Wagner
0.5 Chris Duarte
0.4 Dalano Banton, Charles Bassey
0.3 Josh Giddey, Corey Kispert, Bones Hyland, Herb Jones, Avo Dosunmu
0.2 Luke Garza

0.1 Josh Primo
0.0 Joe Weiskamp

WS/48
.342 Josh Primo
.300 Isaiah Todd
.250 Charles Bassey
.209 Joe Weiskamp
.200 Jalen Johnson
.147 Luke Garza
.143 Quentin Grimes
.130 Evan Mobley
.121 Usman Garuba
.104 Alperen Senjun
.095 Scottie Barnes
.092 Jeremiah Robertson-Earl
.079 Kessler Edwards
.076 Dalano Banton, Bones Hyland

[The Truth #6]

Garuba is another player I thought was under appreciated. Would I rather have Primo or have traded down and got Sengun and Garuba? Or Garuba and someone else? Now, probably stay with Primo, but I’d have to think about it.

[Dejounte]

Garuba is another player I thought was under appreciated. Would I rather have Primo or have traded down and got Sengun and Garuba? Or Garuba and someone else? Now, probably stay with Primo, but I’d have to think about it.

Sengun and Garuba? You’d draft two centers? The Rockets have strictly placed Garuba there.

[The Truth #6]

In a vacuum, I’d rather have them then Zac Collins and Eubanks. But not both over Yak, so that’s why I thought Garuba and someone else. Just throwing ideas around. I’m happy with Primo so far because we need a shot creator/maker. But I think Garuba is a winning player and yes is definitely a small ball center.

Edit: but his outside shooting and basic drive/pass skills seem to be translating (under a small sample size), so it’s possible he could survive as a 4, whereas Sengun will never be able to. I hate to say it, but I like how Houston is drafting and tanking for the most part, Jalen Green being a possible exception so far, but it’s super early.

[Dejounte]

In a vacuum, I’d rather have them then Zac Collins and Eubanks. But not both over Yak, so that’s why I thought Garuba and someone else. Just throwing ideas around. I’m happy with Primo so far because we need a shot creator/maker. But I think Garuba is a winning player and yes is definitely a small ball center.

Edit: but his outside shooting and basic drive/pass skills seem to be translating (under a small sample size), so it’s possible he could survive as a 4, whereas Sengun will never be able to. I hate to say it, but I like how Houston is drafting and tanking for the most part, Jalen Green being a possible exception so far, but it’s super early.
You’re alone on that island, man. I browse their forum and nearly all Rockets fans hate the way the team is being managed.

Spurs fans are bigger Rockets fans than Rockets fans are fans of the Rockets.

[The Truth #6]

I think fans are often fanatics, hence the word, and are perpetually upset about something. So, it’s hard for me to comment about Rockets’ fans mental status, but my comment is based on the assumption that they understand tanking can help you get higher quality talent, and they have made some decent, reasonable moves post-Morey. Building a contender is super hard unless you’re the Lakers.

[spurraider21]

not from 2021, but i remember wanting Nassir Little quite a bit when we took Samanic

[Dejounte]

not from 2021, but i remember wanting Nassir Little quite a bit when we took Samanic

So did that change your view on future prospects who look and play like Nassir?

[spurraider21]

So did that change your view on future prospects who look and play like Nassir?
not really. still think he fits a good prototype. athletic player with 2 way upside. like us taking lonnie. we've seen guys without good jumpers in college progress in the NBA. its a numbers game

[Dejounte]

not really. still think he fits a good prototype. athletic player with 2 way upside. like us taking lonnie. we've seen guys without good jumpers in college progress in the NBA. its a numbers game

Makes sense. From my point of view, I look at why guys like Lonnie and Nassir didn’t make it and to me, it’s what’s between the ears. Neither of those guys really exhibited that in college, so my thought is that if there was a nice, athletic prospect available, my hope is that they are known for playing smart, too. Like, I don’t know about you, but if a guy like Lonnie was there again at #18, that guy better show some fire for me to avoid making the same mistake twice.

Jaden Ivey looks like that guy.

[Dejounte]

Basically, there has to be a characteristic you can look out for from prospects that didn’t work out. Do you point to nature or nurture? I don’t think it’s all nurture, which to me, it makes sense to point to characteristics.

[Maddog]

You’re alone on that island, man. I browse their forum and nearly all Rockets fans hate the way the team is being managed.

Spurs fans are bigger Rockets fans than Rockets fans are fans of the Rockets.
The grass is always greener.
I think it also comes with seeing a player day in and day out. When we lol at the Rockets, we see high draft picks, touted inn a hundred mock drafts and occasionally highlights. Watching game after game you start to see the flaws.

[talkspurs]

I wanted luka Garza and I still think he is doing well for the time he has played. I also think he could have played some here as well.

[Dejounte]

https://twitter.com/nbadraftwass/status/1467164962825068545?s=21

[mo7888]

https://twitter.com/nbadraftwass/status/1467164962825068545?s=21

I had him #4 on my board....maybe I had him to low...

[Drom John]

FiveThirtyEight Raptor WAR, 1 minute minimum, Rookies, not necessarily 2021 draftees.

1) 1.3 Franz Wagner
2) 1.2 Scottie Barnes, Herbert Jones, Evan Mobley
5) 1.0 Chris Duarte, Alperen Sengen
7) 0.7 Austin Reaves
8) 0.5 Trey Murphy III
9) 0.4 Davion Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins
11) 0.3 Jose Alvarado, Usman Garuba, Bones Hyland, Jalen Suggs
15) 0.2 Charles Bassey, Corey Kispert, Jock Landale, Day'Ron Sharpe, Jericho Sims
20) 0.1 Joel Ayayi, Justin Champagnie, Kessler Edwards, Jay Huff, Keon Johnson, Joshua Primo, Isaiah Todd, Ish Wainwright
28) 0.0 Santi Aldama, Leandro Bolmaro, Josh Christopher, Petr Cornelie, Ayo Dosunmu, Jeff Dowtin, Marcus Garrett, Sam Hauser, Aaron Henry, DeJon Jarreau, David Johnson, Jalen Johnson, Vit Krejci, Jonathan Kuminga, JaQuori McLaughlin, RJ Nemhard Jr, Daishen Nix, Eugene Omoruyi, Jamorko Pickett, Yves Pons, Marko Simonovic, Javonte Smart, Jaden Springer, JT Thor, Duane Washington, Joe Weiskamp, McKinley Wright IV

[R. DeMurre]

FiveThirtyEight Raptor WAR, 1 minute minimum, Rookies, not necessarily 2021 draftees.

1) 1.3 Franz Wagner
2) 1.2 Scottie Barnes, Herbert Jones, Evan Mobley
5) 1.0 Chris Duarte, Alperen Sengen
7) 0.7 Austin Reaves
8) 0.5 Trey Murphy III
9) 0.4 Davion Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins
11) 0.3 Jose Alvarado, Usman Garuba, Bones Hyland, Jalen Suggs
15) 0.2 Charles Bassey, Corey Kispert, Jock Landale, Day'Ron Sharpe, Jericho Sims
20) 0.1 Joel Ayayi, Justin Champagnie, Kessler Edwards, Jay Huff, Keon Johnson, Joshua Primo, Isaiah Todd, Ish Wainwright
28) 0.0 Santi Aldama, Leandro Bolmaro, Josh Christopher, Petr Cornelie, Ayo Dosunmu, Jeff Dowtin, Marcus Garrett, Sam Hauser, Aaron Henry, DeJon Jarreau, David Johnson, Jalen Johnson, Vit Krejci, Jonathan Kuminga, JaQuori McLaughlin, RJ Nemhard Jr, Daishen Nix, Eugene Omoruyi, Jamorko Pickett, Yves Pons, Marko Simonovic, Javonte Smart, Jaden Springer, JT Thor, Duane Washington, Joe Weiskamp, McKinley Wright IV


Scottie Barnes has since passed Wagner, which is making me happy-- I have a bet on him for ROY at +1200. My long shot bet this year was on Trey Murphy lll at +10,000-- a $40 bet would pay $4000, which looks pretty unlikely at this point, but was still a choice I like, considering the team he's on & their weaknesses and needs. If I had to guess now-- without odds being a factor-- I'd say Mobley gets it. He already looks like a damn good player and is getting better by the week. His versatility makes that strange uber tall line up of Allen/Markkanen/Mobley possible, and Cleveland sneaking into the playoffs after being 22-50 last year would be a great story. One metric has Mobley playing Center 28% of his time on the court, PF 36% of the time, and SF 36%. That's a pretty impressive showing for a 20 year old rookie.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

[The Truth #6]

My guys Sengun and Garuba seem to be showing great potential.

My guy from two years ago, Tyrese Maxey, is making great progress as well.

The guys I liked who aren’t doing great? Well, yeah, anyway…

[Rummpd]

I guess the initial shock is gone. For what he’s shown, he’s deserving of the 12th pick and could even be better.

I still like Jalen Johnson because he is the position in need.

Duarte would’ve been a great pick… for a contender as he is NBA ready, but we are not so. In retrospect, I’m happy with Joe at 2nd draft if he pans out, athletic and can shoot, Duncan Robinson type, and hopefully he takes Forbes minutes eventually.

In general I’m happy with Spurs’ picks. Jalen Johnson could be someone who got away, IF he turned to be a a good character guy, with all his natural gifts.

Primo draft by this inept FO and over the hill HC at his spot was a frigging joke and he is nothing more than future bench fodder. He cannot even dominate a lessor league.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Heh. My very public picks for last year’s rookies (that I thought the Spurs could get) were Tyrese Haliburton, Saddiq Bey, and DesmondBane. I called Jordan Nwora for a second round bargain. And I said that the minute the draft was over, the Spurs should hand a contract to Max Strus. How about that Pokusevski and Avdija?


This year’s picks that I thought the Spurs could get were Davion Mitc_ell, Alperun Sengun, and Chris Duarte. My pick for a second round bargain was Aaron Wiggins, and for an udrafted free agent bargain was Duane Washington (he lived with his uncle Derek Fisher in high school).


Primo may turn out to be a good pick, but I would have rather seen them try to trade up for Davion Mitchell (and told TIMVP so). And Duarte/Sengun were both there without any move. Duane Washington will be a respectable player for an undrafted free agent.


Last year was a complete bust for the Spurs, considering they could have made just a small move and come up with either Haliburton or Bey, plus Bane, plus Strus for a min contract. That’s the draft that could have changed their fortunes, and won’t.


If anyone from the Spurs is reading, I can be consulted next draft for the price of a couple of virgins and a goat sacrifice.

[talkspurs]

Heh. My very public picks for last year’s rookies (that I thought the Spurs could get) were Tyrese Haliburton, Saddiq Bey, and DesmondBane. I called Jordan Nwora for a second round bargain. And I said that the minute the draft was over, the Spurs should hand a contract to Max Strus. How about that Pokusevski and Avdija?


This year’s picks that I thought the Spurs could get were Davion Mitc_ell, Alperun Sengun, and Chris Duarte. My pick for a second round bargain was Aaron Wiggins, and for an udrafted free agent bargain was Duane Washington (he lived with his uncle Derek Fisher in high school).


Primo may turn out to be a good pick, but I would have rather seen them try to trade up for Davion Mitchell (and told TIMVP so). And Duarte/Sengun were both there without any move. Duane Washington will be a respectable player for an undrafted free agent.


Last year was a complete bust for the Spurs, considering they could have made just a small move and come up with either Haliburton or Bey, plus Bane, plus Strus for a min contract. That’s the draft that could have changed their fortunes, and won’t.


If anyone from the Spurs is reading, I can be consulted next draft for the price of a couple of virgins and a goat sacrifice.

I wanted Bey last draft as well. That is who i was really into us getting. This draft I really wanted us to get Luka garza with our second or trade up for late first/ early second (which we would have needed).

[spurspl]

mobley, wagner - very well like expected
alperem sengun - pretty good like expected
moody, bouknight - expected a lil more but they lack of minutes

scottie barnes suprised me in a positive way, he was a 4th pick but tbh i wasnt so sure about him

[Mr. Body]

I'm not surprised by Scottie Barnes. I thought he'd be better than most anybody picked above him. I'm not surprised guys like Kuminga and Green suck. Slightly surprised Detroit is even worse with Cunningham and he can't win games, but he couldn't even get his team into the Tournament, I don't think. Like Simmons couldn't at LSU. Don't trust guys who 1) hide themselves on G-League teams or disappear entirely (Wiseman), or 2) can't even win in college.

[PhantomDashCam]

1508136695606173698


https://youtu.be/t5DmpPtOHGY



The play at the 28 second mark is remarkably fluid for somebody his height...

[exstatic]

It's the gleague. Kyle Anderson looked like an All Star in the gleague.

[PhantomDashCam]

It's the gleague. Kyle Anderson looked like an All Star in the gleague.

So what I'm looking for when I watch G-League games are transferable skills for the NBA and how are they improving week to week, game to game...
That move at the 28 second mark = high-level self creation, ie. an NBA move.

If that becomes a consistent part of the repertoire, (and granted, it's a huge if), that is an almost unblock-able, go to move in Isolation situations.

[KingKev]

So what I'm looking for when I watch G-League games are transferable skills for the NBA and how are they improving week to week, game to game...
That move at the 28 second mark = high-level self creation, ie. an NBA move.

If that becomes a consistent part of the repertoire, (and granted, it's a huge if), that is an almost unblock-able, go to move in Isolation situations.

Ex uses this same thought process with Primo’s G-League step back 3. Let’s see if he agrees with you

[Chinook]

I wonder how many people would scoff at Jones looking good during his first season but then criticize the Spurs for letting go of Sam after seeing him score fewer points in the d-league in his third season.

[exstatic]

Ex uses this same thought process with Primo’s G-League step back 3. Let’s see if he agrees with you

The first time I saw that move, it was the in the NBA. Early season game when he would just let it fly.

Anyway, that thought process is flawed. If anyone in the gleague could automatically do the same things in the NBA, and anyone in college, too, there would be like a complete NBA roster turnover every few years. They can’t, though. Most bball experts agree that there are only two skills that frequently carry from one level of basketball to the next level up: deadeye shooting and rebounding. Everything else is dependent on the level of competition.