Omicron Variant May End Up Saving Lives - WSJ

[DMC]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-saving-lives-infection-antibodies-spread-sick-covid-19-coronavirus-hospitalization-death-vaccine-11641153969

It’s far less lethal than previous versions, and its fast spread may finally push us to herd immunity.

Should I try to catch the Omicron variant of Covid to advance the cause of herd immunity?

I’ve had Covid and recovered, had the Regeneron monoclonal antibody infusion, and had the double-jab vaccine—my antibodies are off the charts. With triple protection, I probably won’t catch Omicron. Yet it is spreading like wildfire. Many people with ample antibodies are catching this variant. Importantly, it seldom leads to hospitalization or death.

The prudent response to Omicron might be to encourage vaccinated people and even unvaccinated young adults to catch it, while protecting the at-risk population. One measure of a pathogen’s lethality is the case fatality rate—the ratio of the death toll to the known cases. The 28-day average case fatality rate in South Africa, the likely origin of the Omicron variant, tumbled in the past six weeks from 8% to 0.2%, barely higher than for the flu. Omicron will assuredly confer new, complementary antibodies on its victims, providing an additional measure of immunity to more lethal Covid variants.

Omicron takes lives. So does the flu. If antibodies to the Omicron variant are even 50% effective in reducing the risk of death from more-lethal variants, those antibodies could save far more lives than the virus costs. From a personal perspective, which is more likely, dying if I catch the Omicron variant, or dying from another, more lethal variant of Covid because I lack the Omicron antibodies? The answer isn’t as simple as our policy elite might suggest.

No politician will do this sort of cost-benefit analysis. Europe and Latin America are in various stages of renewed lockdowns. As usual, they began long after cases were already soaring. Sometimes, as in the Netherlands last week, the lockdowns were initiated after daily case and death counts were already receding. For the European Union, the U.S. and Latin America, the latest case fatality rate is 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, down from a high of 4% to 7% during the Delta wave in June. If we add in the legions of asymptomatic, mild and untested cases, the true Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu.

Bureaucrats in Europe, Latin America and some U.S. states seem to be saying: Let’s wait for cases to soar, then wait a little longer until the crisis is subsiding, then let’s blow up the economy after it’s too late to save any lives.

Lockdowns also cost lives. This is the underreported collateral damage from Covid. In an October study for the Reason Foundation, my colleagues and I found that in the U.S., excess deaths (fatalities above historical norms) from homicide, suicide, overdose or accident had amounted to some 82,000 between March 2020 and August 2021. During that period, the murder rate roughly doubled, and overdose deaths rose more than 50%. Accidental deaths are also elevated; after all, more fatal accidents happen at home than in the office. Meanwhile, supply-chain disruptions, fear of hospitals, and delayed diagnoses collectively led to an additional 86,000 excess deaths from cancer, heart and lung disease and stroke. In 15 weeks, through Dec. 18, these excess deaths—none from Covid—have risen by another 56,000.

Every death is a tragedy. Yet we all die eventually, so it is sensible to examine death from a cost-benefit perspective. We keep hearing the mantra “follow the science.” True scientific method involves airing opinions and vetting hypotheses, not stifling debate. Beyond the hard sciences, it also involves asking tough cost-benefit questions while anticipating unintended consequences.

Let’s explore unconventional answers to end this protracted nightmare. I am not trying to catch Omicron. But I am not afraid: catching it may very well reduce, not increase, my risk of dying from some future Covid variant.

[DMC]

Yeah no one here ever said that...

[Ef-man]

Yeah, no one here ever said that masks were placebos, or vaccines were useless…

[Thread]

"I am not trying to catch Omicron. But I am not afraid:"

I'll just bet you're not.

[Winehole23]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-saving-lives-infection-antibodies-spread-sick-covid-19-coronavirus-hospitalization-death-vaccine-11641153969

It’s far less lethal than previous versions, and its fast spread may finally push us to herd immunity.

Should I try to catch the Omicron variant of Covid to advance the cause of herd immunity?

I’ve had Covid and recovered, had the Regeneron monoclonal antibody infusion, and had the double-jab vaccine—my antibodies are off the charts. With triple protection, I probably won’t catch Omicron. Yet it is spreading like wildfire. Many people with ample antibodies are catching this variant. Importantly, it seldom leads to hospitalization or death.

The prudent response to Omicron might be to encourage vaccinated people and even unvaccinated young adults to catch it, while protecting the at-risk population. One measure of a pathogen’s lethality is the case fatality rate—the ratio of the death toll to the known cases. The 28-day average case fatality rate in South Africa, the likely origin of the Omicron variant, tumbled in the past six weeks from 8% to 0.2%, barely higher than for the flu. Omicron will assuredly confer new, complementary antibodies on its victims, providing an additional measure of immunity to more lethal Covid variants.

Omicron takes lives. So does the flu. If antibodies to the Omicron variant are even 50% effective in reducing the risk of death from more-lethal variants, those antibodies could save far more lives than the virus costs. From a personal perspective, which is more likely, dying if I catch the Omicron variant, or dying from another, more lethal variant of Covid because I lack the Omicron antibodies? The answer isn’t as simple as our policy elite might suggest.

No politician will do this sort of cost-benefit analysis. Europe and Latin America are in various stages of renewed lockdowns. As usual, they began long after cases were already soaring. Sometimes, as in the Netherlands last week, the lockdowns were initiated after daily case and death counts were already receding. For the European Union, the U.S. and Latin America, the latest case fatality rate is 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, down from a high of 4% to 7% during the Delta wave in June. If we add in the legions of asymptomatic, mild and untested cases, the true Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu.

Bureaucrats in Europe, Latin America and some U.S. states seem to be saying: Let’s wait for cases to soar, then wait a little longer until the crisis is subsiding, then let’s blow up the economy after it’s too late to save any lives.

Lockdowns also cost lives. This is the underreported collateral damage from Covid. In an October study for the Reason Foundation, my colleagues and I found that in the U.S., excess deaths (fatalities above historical norms) from homicide, suicide, overdose or accident had amounted to some 82,000 between March 2020 and August 2021. During that period, the murder rate roughly doubled, and overdose deaths rose more than 50%. Accidental deaths are also elevated; after all, more fatal accidents happen at home than in the office. Meanwhile, supply-chain disruptions, fear of hospitals, and delayed diagnoses collectively led to an additional 86,000 excess deaths from cancer, heart and lung disease and stroke. In 15 weeks, through Dec. 18, these excess deaths—none from Covid—have risen by another 56,000.

Every death is a tragedy. Yet we all die eventually, so it is sensible to examine death from a cost-benefit perspective. We keep hearing the mantra “follow the science.” True scientific method involves airing opinions and vetting hypotheses, not stifling debate. Beyond the hard sciences, it also involves asking tough cost-benefit questions while anticipating unintended consequences.

Let’s explore unconventional answers to end this protracted nightmare. I am not trying to catch Omicron. But I am not afraid: catching it may very well reduce, not increase, my risk of dying from some future Covid variant.The prevalence of weasel words gives this article away as wishcasting and pandering to the confirmation bias of dedicated COVID minimizers like the OP. Hoping that Omicron will be beneficial and ignoring the social impact of mass infection in favor of a more or less hypothetical cost benefit analysis is democide, more or less.

Too bad infection by Beta and Delta did not "assuredly confer beneficial antibodies" that are currently protecting us from Omicron, not sure I see what underpins the assumption that Omicron will protect us from "future, more dangerous "variants rather than incubating them.

[Winehole23]

I wonder what DMC thinks of his own OP.

[Winehole23]

It's written in conditional and subjunctive tenses. 100% fact-free speculation, an argumentative COVID op-ed.

Where's the science?

[Will Hunting]

The hysteria over Omicron is pretty retarded. If you're vaccinated and boosted the chances of you getting hospitalized from it are microscopic. It's insane that people are talking about going back to locking down again over it.

[Winehole23]

The hysteria over Omicron is pretty retarded. If you're vaccinated and boosted the chances of you getting hospitalized from it are microscopic. It's insane that people are talking about going back to locking down again over it.I'm vaccinated and boosted, but millions are immunocompromised, otherwise vulnerable or too young to get the jab.

Fuck em, I guess.

[Winehole23]

Pretending there are no options between lockdowns and let er rip is dishonest. There are lots of things that could and should be done short of shelter in place orders.

[Winehole23]

Masking, social distancing, rapid testing, paid sick leave, genetic sequencing, ventilation/filtration/air quality monitoring still make sense. So would a Warp Speed 2.0 for next generation vaccines and treatments.

COVID is shutting down schools and businesses all on its own without any government mandates. Letting it do so is a social and political choice. There's costs attached to skipping mitigation too.

[spurraider21]

I'm vaccinated and boosted, but millions are immunocompromised, otherwise vulnerable or too young to get the jab.

Fuck em, I guess.
at this point conservatism is a subset of the immunocompromised group

[Winehole23]

While we're playing the "perhaps" game, perhaps lots of of people are dying post-infection from vascular, cardiac and renal issues that getting COVID more or less caused or exacerbated.

If it's not COVID, what's causing excess mortality 400% worse than a once in 200-year disaster in the 18-64 cohort?



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIHxEAgWQAAMq7I?format=png&name=medium


https://www.thecentersquare.com/indiana/indiana-life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-are-up-40-among-people-ages-18-64/article_71473b12-6b1e-11ec-8641-5b2c06725e2c.html

[Winehole23]

I sort of don't get the hysteria/living in fear narrative. Infrastructure stress and failure have nothing to do with individual risk tolerance.

Hospitals are getting rekt right now.

[Thanos]

The hysteria over Omicron is pretty retarded. If you're vaccinated and boosted the chances of you getting hospitalized from it are microscopic. It's insane that people are talking about going back to locking down again over it.
I’m mostly with you, if unvaxxed MAGAtards wanna die, then cool, let em die. But the issue is the hospitals being stuck with all the unvaxxed retards, and not having enough space to treat other patients. There’s already plenty of stories of people who have a non-COVID issue dying while waiting for a hospital bed.

If hospitals could start refusing to treat unvaccinated COVID patients I’d be 100% for completely removing all COVID restrictions.

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIEiGG_XsAEWZPx?format=jpg&name=medium


https://alexanderjxchen.github.io/circuitbreaker/

[Winehole23]

Persistent symptoms and decreased health-related quality of life after symptomatic pediatric COVID-19: A prospective study in a Latin American tertiary hospital (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8595593/)

[Winehole23]

Covid-19: Children born during the pandemic score lower on cognitive tests, study finds (https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2031)

[Will Hunting]

I’m mostly with you, if unvaxxed MAGAtards wanna die, then cool, let em die. But the issue is the hospitals being stuck with all the unvaxxed retards, and not having enough space to treat other patients. There’s already plenty of stories of people who have a non-COVID issue dying while waiting for a hospital bed.

If hospitals could start refusing to treat unvaccinated COVID patients I’d be 100% for completely removing all COVID restrictions.
IMO hospitals should be sequestering an area for unvaccinated people and to the extent that area is filled up, other anti-vaxxers have to wait.

[DMC]

I think, if HC workers can't work if they aren't vaccinated, then non-vaxxed people also should not be accepted. Maybe someone should build an unvaxxed hospital where the workers and patients can all be unvaxxed.

[SnakeBoy]

IMO hospitals should be sequestering an area for unvaccinated people and to the extent that area is filled up, other anti-vaxxers have to wait.

We could solve the problem by returning to a free market healthcare system. No cash, No Credit, Bad Credit, GTFOH. This would also lower the cost of healthcare like it does in veterinary medicine.

[ElNono]

We could solve the problem by returning to a free market healthcare system. No cash, No Credit, Bad Credit, GTFOH. This would also lower the cost of healthcare like it does in veterinary medicine.

Hopefully this was sarcasm, tbh

[RandomGuy]

We could solve the problem by returning to a free market healthcare system. No cash, No Credit, Bad Credit, GTFOH. This would also lower the cost of healthcare like it does in veterinary medicine.

So, a death sentence for the poor or unemployed if they require care.

Bleeding out? Better cough up an insurance card if you want some sutures, sorry.
heart attack? Meds don't grow on trees, you better spend the next few minutes writing a check with your good arm, hopefully you aren't left handed.

Withholding life saving medicine because of an inability to pay is a morally and intellectually bankrupt idea.

:lol "free market" health care, like dozens of other countries haven't already figured out something better.

[RandomGuy]

Hopefully this was sarcasm, tbh

We could solve the problem if we all make offerings to the magic fairy king.

That is what I hear when free market cultists use it as the end-all, be-all of solutions. Like the free market is some unerring diety that just automatically does good, and never, ever does anything bad.

I say cult very specifically, because when you point out free market failures, it is like blasphemy to them. "shut up, libtard!" tends to be where it ends, like it does with any religious zealot. Same tenor of arguments, generally.

[RandomGuy]

Hopefully this was sarcasm, tbh

Case in point:

Functioning free markets require the ability to forgo a good or service, or to substitute one service for another. This is what makes it sensitive to supply and demand (i.e."elasticity")

If you are suffering from cancer, or a heart attack, or 3rd degree burns, can you realistically forgo medical care? Or substitute a cardiologist for something cheaper, like say... a podiatrist or an aroma therapist?

That is where I stop getting honest answers. They understand instinctively the answer is "fuck no", but know that admitting that means their free market diety has a flaw, and that they cannot abide.

[DMC]

Case in point:

Functioning free markets require the ability to forgo a good or service, or to substitute one service for another. This is what makes it sensitive to supply and demand (i.e."elasticity")

If you are suffering from cancer, or a heart attack, or 3rd degree burns, can you realistically forgo medical care? Or substitute a cardiologist for something cheaper, like say... a podiatrist or an aroma therapist?

That is where I stop getting honest answers. They understand instinctively the answer is "fuck no", but know that admitting that means their free market diety has a flaw, and that they cannot abide.

i.e. you cannot afford to go to the hospital. Don't you get VA treatment with your military background?

[vy65]

I’m mostly with you, if unvaxxed MAGAtards wanna die, then cool, let em die. But the issue is the hospitals being stuck with all the unvaxxed retards, and not having enough space to treat other patients. There’s already plenty of stories of people who have a non-COVID issue dying while waiting for a hospital bed.

If hospitals could start refusing to treat unvaccinated COVID patients I’d be 100% for completely removing all COVID restrictions.

Been arguing for this. I'd also be in favor of treating them but then charging them with a crime like we do for drunk drivers.

[Thanos]

We could solve the problem by returning to a free market healthcare system. No cash, No Credit, Bad Credit, GTFOH. This would also lower the cost of healthcare like it does in veterinary medicine.
Would be nice to have the option of putting Boomers to sleep rather than give them knee surgery tbh

[Thread]

Would be nice to have the option of putting Boomers to sleep rather than give them knee surgery tbh

You'll get there by-&-by, Than. & then you'll know.

[SnakeBoy]

Would be nice to have the option of putting Boomers to sleep rather than give them knee surgery tbh

Nope. Millennials have to take care of Boomers and early GenX like me. I'll be right there with them talking about muh right to free stuff by the end of the decade.

[Thanos]

early GenX like me
Young Boomer in denial :lmao

[DarrinS]

Young Boomer in denial :lmao

Boomers are our parents' generation, you half-wit.

[DarrinS]

Been arguing for this. I'd also be in favor of treating them but then charging them with a crime like we do for drunk drivers.

How should they treat the obese patients?

[TDMVPDPOY]

lol closing testing sites, making it harder to buy test kits...getting people to isolate at home, close contact family members within the household also stay at home.. govt seriously wants herd immunity....

herd immunity makes no sense, everyone reacts to the virus differently...so in other words everyone is collateral... yet all the dogs in ICU are unvaccinated antivax wankers...start pulling the plug...

[DarrinS]

lol closing testing sites, making it harder to buy test kits...getting people to isolate at home, close contact family members within the household also stay at home.. govt seriously wants herd immunity....

herd immunity makes no sense, everyone reacts to the virus differently...so in other words everyone is collateral... yet all the dogs in ICU are unvaccinated antivax wankers...start pulling the plug...

You ever get put in one of those camps?

[Thanos]

Boomers are our parents' generation, you half-wit.
I take it Dry January didn’t last long :lol

[TDMVPDPOY]

You ever get put in one of those camps?

currently at home isolating with 2 idiots who attended mass gathering functions....me n parter was meant to pull in 4k this week with OT public holidays as shift workers, but now stuck at home isolating....those other 2 idiots already planning their parties out of home isolation...seriously some ppl just dont understand thinking the world rotates around them, but dgaf about whoever else who just dont want catchin covid...

i told them idiots if u end up in hospital dont inspect any hospital visits, or me being an interpreter.. not be heartless person, but sometimes u cant stop natural selection of the dumbcunts in society who need to be purge

[SnakeBoy]

Young Boomer in denial :lmao

Lash out all you want young fella. You're still going to pay our way through retirement, hell you're begging to. We'll be happy to let you when it won't cost us anything.

Who's going to pay your way? Idk.

[DarrinS]

currently at home isolating with 2 idiots who attended mass gathering functions....me n parter was meant to pull in 4k this week with OT public holidays as shift workers, but now stuck at home isolating....those other 2 idiots already planning their parties out of home isolation...seriously some ppl just dont understand thinking the world rotates around them, but dgaf about whoever else who just dont want catchin covid...

i told them idiots if u end up in hospital dont inspect any hospital visits, or me being an interpreter.. not be heartless person, but sometimes u cant stop natural selection of the dumbcunts in society who need to be purge


My family currently has omicron. Wife and daughter have slight colds. I haven't felt bad whatsoever.

[TDMVPDPOY]

My family currently has omicron. Wife and daughter have slight colds. I haven't felt bad whatsoever.

with delta we didnt get many cases probably around 1000 a day, and deaths were mainly old people in age care due to strict lockdowns and monitoring, fearmongering got people to be more wiser..

now with population 90% double vaccinated, seems like ppl have drop down their guards, govt also dropping down their policys

now with omicron its like we open the flood gates cases 5000-15000 a day, they are treating these just mild cases nothing series downplaying the cases, but a case is still a case...people in icu are unvaccinated or with other health problem, deaths also decreasing....

last year i could just rock up to any testing site without having to wait for shit, now? fkn 2.5hrs wait or be turn away cause they cant handle the numbers of ppl wanting to get tested or backlog of test still not process,

[Thanos]

Lash out all you want young fella. You're still going to pay our way through retirement, hell you're begging to. We'll be happy to let you when it won't cost us anything.

Who's going to pay your way? Idk.
After you’re dead we’ll all get UBI here in the Socialist States Of America.

[TDMVPDPOY]

After you’re dead we’ll all get UBI here in the Socialist States Of America.

fck UBI, those fkn idiots on welfare already living and eatting better then ppl who cant access welfare doing menial low income jobs living on the poverty line...

now they want ubi or welfare increase to minimum weekly pay when welfare was meant to get you by for the day/week...

[vy65]

How should they treat the obese patients?

The same way if their obesity is entirely of their own doing. Why do you think obesity is analogous to people who deliberately refuse to get vaccinated?

[DarrinS]

The same way if their obesity is entirely of their own doing. Why do you think obesity is analogous to people who deliberately refuse to get vaccinated?

Both groups are knowingly putting their health at risk.

We don't deny medical intervention for poor lifestyle choices, thankfully.

[Thanos]

Both groups are knowingly putting their health at risk.

We don't deny medical intervention for poor lifestyle choices, thankfully.
After you sober up, you’ll laugh at how stupid this argument you’re making is.

Oh, who am I kidding? You’re not gonna sober up.

[DarrinS]

After you sober up, you’ll laugh at how stupid this argument you’re making is.

Oh, who am I kidding? You’re not gonna sober up.


Well, you sure explained why my argument was stupid. Next

[Thanos]

Well, you sure explained why my argument was stupid. Next
You’re too drunk to understand it anyways :tu

[Th'Pusher]

Lash out all you want young fella. You're still going to pay our way through retirement, hell you're begging to. We'll be happy to let you when it won't cost us anything.

Who's going to pay your way? Idk.

Same entity that’ll pay for yours. The federal government. What do you think, the Uncle Sam is gonna go bankrupt? :lol

[DMC]

Boomers are our parents' generation, you half-wit.

That's being generous. Bland fortnite level trolling is his forte.

[DMC]

Same entity that’ll pay for yours. The federal government. What do you think, the Uncle Sam is gonna go bankrupt? :lol

:lmao

The federal gubmint never paid for shit, dillweed. It's all taxpayer funding.

[vy65]

Both groups are knowingly putting their health at risk.

We don't deny medical intervention for poor lifestyle choices, thankfully.

Why are you thankful for that? Particularly when, in the antivax scenario, it creates a public health risk? You should hate not thank that

[DarrinS]

Why are you thankful for that? Particularly when, in the antivax scenario, it creates a public health risk? You should hate not thank that

Because I'm a human. We shouldn't deny medical for fats, smokers, addicts, etc.

[vy65]

Because I'm a human. We shouldn't deny medical for fats, smokers, addicts, etc.

You're also purposefully obtuse. We penalize people who endanger the public health. That's why drunk driving is a crime. Although [insert low hanging fruit joke here].

You don't think that anti vaxxers shouldn't face repercussions for endangering the health of others?

[Winehole23]

You're also purposefully obtuse. We penalize people who endanger the public health. That's why drunk driving is a crime. Although [insert low hanging fruit joke here].

You don't think that anti vaxxers shouldn't face repercussions for endangering the health of others?Crisis standards of care may end up excluding unvaxxed as a bad risk for scarce resources. It sucks that we're getting to that, if only there was something we could have done proactively to prevent it, that would have been great. It's too bad we scarcely tried.

[vy65]

Crisis standards of care may end up excluding unvaxxed as a bad risk for scarce resources. It sucks that we're getting to that, if only there was something we could have done proactively to prevent it, that would have been great. It's too bad we scarcely tried.

At what point do you hold people accountable for their decisions. Exercises of “freedom” are never risk of liability free.

[DarrinS]

You're also purposefully obtuse. We penalize people who endanger the public health. That's why drunk driving is a crime. Although [insert low hanging fruit joke here].

You don't think that anti vaxxers shouldn't face repercussions for endangering the health of others?



I'm pro vax, full disclosure. Had two doses of Pfizer.

That said, your argument falls apart since the fully vaccinated also spread covid.

[Winehole23]

At what point do you hold people accountable for their decisions. Exercises of “freedom” are never risk of liability free.At the point at which resources must be rationed to promote best outcomes. We're already there in a few US states. Others are trying to hide the ball. The trend doesn't look good.

[vy65]

I'm pro vax, full disclosure. Had two doses of Pfizer.

That said, your argument falls apart since the fully vaccinated also spread covid.

What does your personal pro-vax stance have to do with what we’re talking about? Or the reduced transmission risk of the vaccinated? These are lazy irrelevancies.

[SnakeBoy]

Particularly when, in the antivax scenario, it creates a public health risk?

Vaxxed are spreading the virus and will continue to do so until everyone is infected, repeatedly.

[vy65]

At the point at which resources must be rationed to promote best outcomes. We're already there in a few US states. The trend doesn't look good.

The utilitarian view is consistent, I guess, but it seems to sidestep the issue if you ask me.

[DarrinS]

At the point at which resources must be rationed to promote best outcomes. We're already there in a few US states. The trend doesn't look good.

If they have to triage, they'll save the people most likely to survive. Younger, more fit, etc.

[Winehole23]

The utilitarian view is consistent, I guess, but it seems to sidestep the issue if you ask me. short of scarcity of resources, why shouldn't all comers receive reasonable care?

[DarrinS]

Damn, these people are creepy.

[Winehole23]

should we add means-testing when we have the resources to provide care? seems cruel.

[vy65]

short of scarcity of resources, why shouldn't all comers receive reasonable care?

Because the antivaxxer crowd is creating a public health issue of their own doing. Specifically, their refusal to follow science and do what’s best for the common good. If someone chooses to not be vaccinated, that’s fine. They made their bed and should live with the consequences. Or does accountability not matter?

[vy65]

should we add means-testing when we have the resources to provide care? seems cruel.

Because vaccines are so expensive?

[Winehole23]

If they have to triage, they'll save the people most likely to survive. Younger, more fit, etc.Also, vaccinated.

[DarrinS]

Also, vaccinated.

They'll treat the most likely to survive.

[vy65]

Vaxxed are spreading the virus and will continue to do so until everyone is infected, repeatedly.

False equivalence. The unvaxed are the more significant transmission vector.

https://theconversation.com/amp/no-vaccinated-people-are-not-just-as-infectious-as-unvaccinated-people-if-they-get-covid-171302

[Winehole23]

Because vaccines are so expensive?I get what you're saying, but denying care to people we have the resources to take care of, just because they were personally irreposnsible, seems gratuitous and unnecessary.

Should we deny cardiac care to people who drink and smoke too much? Or have an unhealthy diet?

Where does the line get drawn? Should medical care be only for people who take care of themselves? Feels wrong, if harm can be prevented, without harm to others.

[DarrinS]

False equivalence. The unvaxed are the more significant transmission vector.

https://theconversation.com/amp/no-vaccinated-people-are-not-just-as-infectious-as-unvaccinated-people-if-they-get-covid-171302



Pre omicron

[Winehole23]

They'll treat the most likely to survive.Yep. Vaccination in the era of COVID is a leading risk factor.

[DarrinS]

Do lawyers take courses in medical ethics? Makes you wonder

[Winehole23]

Pre omicronYou left something out. Vaccination still mitigates hospitalization and death.

[vy65]

I get what you're saying, but denying care to people we have the resources to take care of, just because they were personally irreposnsible, seems gratuitous and unnecessary.

Should we deny cardiac care to people who drink and smoke too much? Or have an unhealthy diet?

Where does the line get drawn? Should medical care be only for people who take care of themselves? Feels wrong, if harm can be prevented.

Drinking and smoking and obesity are not on all fours. They don’t pose a direct threat to public health (or an indirect one in non-covid times). The calculus is different when the threat is posed to others. That’s the brightline.

A good analogy, and a scenario I’d be in favor of, is to treat this like a dwi accident. Treat the antivaxxer, but also charge them with a crime. Arguably, the antivaxxer is a bigger health risk, so the increased penalty should be denial of care, but I’d also be in favor of making it a crime to seek care of you’re unvaccinated.

[vy65]

Pre omicron

Where’s your post omicron rebuttal study?

[Winehole23]

Where’s your post omicron rebuttal study?Wishcasting.

Darrin thinks Omicron is God's gift to mankind.

[vy65]

Do lawyers take courses in medical ethics? Makes you wonder

You’re a buffoon.

[Winehole23]

You’re a buffoon.He's an Omicron cheerleader, tbh.

[Winehole23]

No more playing D for COVID, now he's on the offensive team. Objectively pro-COVID.

[DarrinS]

Where’s your post omicron rebuttal study?

Comparing households infected with the Omicron to Delta VOC, we found an 1.17 (95%-CI: 0.99-1.38) times higher SAR for unvaccinated, 2.61 times (95%-CI: 2.34-2.90) higher for fully vaccinated and 3.66 (95%-CI: 2.65-5.05) times higher for booster-vaccinated individuals, demonstrating strong evidence of immune evasiveness of the Omicron VOC.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1.full

[Winehole23]

"COVID is good, embrace it!"

[DarrinS]

No more playing D for COVID, now he's on the offensive team. Objectively pro-COVID.

I'm pro endemic cold-like covid. Something we can live with.

[Winehole23]

I'm pro endemic cold-like covid. Something we can live with.Hope you're right. There's no guarantee you are -- that's a pure wish. Rampant community transmission of Delta did not confer robust protection against Omicron, why should Omicron be any different respecting what comes after it?

[DarrinS]

You’re a buffoon.

Well, ad hominem is a thing.

[vy65]

Comparing households infected with the Omicron to Delta VOC, we found an 1.17 (95%-CI: 0.99-1.38) times higher SAR for unvaccinated, 2.61 times (95%-CI: 2.34-2.90) higher for fully vaccinated and 3.66 (95%-CI: 2.65-5.05) times higher for booster-vaccinated individuals, demonstrating strong evidence of immune evasiveness of the Omicron VOC.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1.full

Explain why “immune evasiveness” is the same as saying the unvaccinated spread Covid as much as the vaccinated.”

[vy65]

Well, ad hominem is a thing.

No, you’re an actual buffoon if you think there aren’t lawyers who specialize in medical ethics. Straight up.

[DarrinS]

Wishcasting.

Darrin thinks Omicron is God's gift to mankind.


I do, actually.

[vy65]

Comparing households infected with the Omicron to Delta VOC, we found an 1.17 (95%-CI: 0.99-1.38) times higher SAR for unvaccinated, 2.61 times (95%-CI: 2.34-2.90) higher for fully vaccinated and 3.66 (95%-CI: 2.65-5.05) times higher for booster-vaccinated individuals, demonstrating strong evidence of immune evasiveness of the Omicron VOC.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1.full

Literally the third paragraph: We found an increased transmission for unvaccinated individuals, and a reduced transmission for booster-vaccinated individuals, compared to fully vaccinated individuals.

[DarrinS]

No, you’re an actual buffoon if you think there aren’t lawyers who specialize in medical ethics. Straight up.

How do think the case would go if a hospital denies care to an unvaccinated person?

[Winehole23]

Explain why “immune evasiveness” is the same as saying the unvaccinated spread Covid as much as the vaccinated.”This is a good point. Omicron may not be more contagious as such, it might get by our defenses with a similar viral load.


Our findings confirm that the rapid spread of the Omicron VOC primarily can be ascribed to the immune evasiveness rather than an inherent increase in the basic transmissibility.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1.full.pdf

[Winehole23]

I do, actually.It shows.

[DarrinS]

Immune evasive = vaccinated spreading it

[Winehole23]

Immune evasive = vaccinated spreading ithas someone denied that?

Btw, masking is still very effective at hindering transmission. COVID is airborne.

[DarrinS]

has someone denied that?

Btw, masking is still very effective at hindering transmission.


Meh, not those cloth ones that most everyone wears.

Getting late for me. Condolences on your fevered dreams of Viking insurrection man and kids enjoying school. :lmao

[Winehole23]

Delta did not save lives, why will Omicron?

[Winehole23]

Meh, not those cloth ones that most everyone wears.

Getting late for me. Condolences on your fevered dreams of Viking insurrection man and kids enjoying school. :lmaoI have two grandkids in school who probably got COVID because a teacher didn't mask up.

The quality of masks makes a difference, but something is still better than nothing.


https://www.mpg.de/17916867/coronavirus-masks-risk-protection

[Winehole23]

even medical masks significantly reduce the risk of infection compared to a situation without any mouth-nose protection at all

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/49/e2110117118

[Thanos]

I'm pro vax, full disclosure. Had two doses of Pfizer.

That said, your argument falls apart since the fully vaccinated also spread covid.
Fully vaxxed don’t occupy hospital beds.

[Thanos]

Meh, not those cloth ones that most everyone wears.

Getting late for me. Condolences on your fevered dreams of Viking insurrection man and kids enjoying school. :lmao
Says the guy who craps his pants over non-existent CRT.

[Winehole23]

Fully vaxxed don’t occupy hospital beds.so far it seems not, but the case may be different with not yet boosted.


1478362963195187200

[Winehole23]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-saving-lives-infection-antibodies-spread-sick-covid-19-coronavirus-hospitalization-death-vaccine-11641153969

It’s far less lethal than previous versions, and its fast spread may finally push us to herd immunity.

Should I try to catch the Omicron variant of Covid to advance the cause of herd immunity?

I’ve had Covid and recovered, had the Regeneron monoclonal antibody infusion, and had the double-jab vaccine—my antibodies are off the charts. With triple protection, I probably won’t catch Omicron. Yet it is spreading like wildfire. Many people with ample antibodies are catching this variant. Importantly, it seldom leads to hospitalization or death.

The prudent response to Omicron might be to encourage vaccinated people and even unvaccinated young adults to catch it, while protecting the at-risk population. One measure of a pathogen’s lethality is the case fatality rate—the ratio of the death toll to the known cases. The 28-day average case fatality rate in South Africa, the likely origin of the Omicron variant, tumbled in the past six weeks from 8% to 0.2%, barely higher than for the flu. Omicron will assuredly confer new, complementary antibodies on its victims, providing an additional measure of immunity to more lethal Covid variants.

Omicron takes lives. So does the flu. If antibodies to the Omicron variant are even 50% effective in reducing the risk of death from more-lethal variants, those antibodies could save far more lives than the virus costs. From a personal perspective, which is more likely, dying if I catch the Omicron variant, or dying from another, more lethal variant of Covid because I lack the Omicron antibodies? The answer isn’t as simple as our policy elite might suggest.

No politician will do this sort of cost-benefit analysis. Europe and Latin America are in various stages of renewed lockdowns. As usual, they began long after cases were already soaring. Sometimes, as in the Netherlands last week, the lockdowns were initiated after daily case and death counts were already receding. For the European Union, the U.S. and Latin America, the latest case fatality rate is 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, down from a high of 4% to 7% during the Delta wave in June. If we add in the legions of asymptomatic, mild and untested cases, the true Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu.

Bureaucrats in Europe, Latin America and some U.S. states seem to be saying: Let’s wait for cases to soar, then wait a little longer until the crisis is subsiding, then let’s blow up the economy after it’s too late to save any lives.

Lockdowns also cost lives. This is the underreported collateral damage from Covid. In an October study for the Reason Foundation, my colleagues and I found that in the U.S., excess deaths (fatalities above historical norms) from homicide, suicide, overdose or accident had amounted to some 82,000 between March 2020 and August 2021. During that period, the murder rate roughly doubled, and overdose deaths rose more than 50%. Accidental deaths are also elevated; after all, more fatal accidents happen at home than in the office. Meanwhile, supply-chain disruptions, fear of hospitals, and delayed diagnoses collectively led to an additional 86,000 excess deaths from cancer, heart and lung disease and stroke. In 15 weeks, through Dec. 18, these excess deaths—none from Covid—have risen by another 56,000.

Every death is a tragedy. Yet we all die eventually, so it is sensible to examine death from a cost-benefit perspective. We keep hearing the mantra “follow the science.” True scientific method involves airing opinions and vetting hypotheses, not stifling debate. Beyond the hard sciences, it also involves asking tough cost-benefit questions while anticipating unintended consequences.

Let’s explore unconventional answers to end this protracted nightmare. I am not trying to catch Omicron. But I am not afraid: catching it may very well reduce, not increase, my risk of dying from some future Covid variant.200,000 dead since December, nearly half of the pediatric dead. Immune escape to the extent of rendering the Pfizer jab clinically ineffective, new waves of infection every three to four months.

Infection by OG Omicron appears to confer little natural immunity all by itself against subsequent reinfection by Omicron variants.

'Tis mild, no?

Lol pinning hopes on a WSJ op-ed.