2022 Draft Pick Watch

[KingKev]

Just remember teams rest players down the stretch if they are satisfied with their playoff positioning. I don’t think it’s as simple as looking at the difficulty of teams schedules down the stretch. For us Denver, Minny, GS and Dallas may be resting guys.

[The Truth #6]

I think everyone sees us and contemplates resting at least one of their best players from here on out. Except Portland. Drew Eubanks will likely still start.

[Seventyniner]

Who to root for tonight:

PHI (@DET) and MIL (@BRK) because we want PHI and MIL to finish with better records than Boston, pushing that first round pick owed to the Spurs higher.

ATL (vs CLE) and LAC (@CHI) if you want the Raptors to finish 5th or 6th in the East, avoiding the play-in and ensuring their first conveys to the Spurs this year.
CLE (@ATL) and CHI (vs LAC) if you want the Raptors to finish 7th in the East (lower is possible but highly unlikely), giving them a higher draft slot but introducing the possibility that they miss the playoffs and don't convey their first to the Spurs this year.

LAL (@UTA) if you want the Spurs to finish below the Lakers and thus in a better draft slot.
UTA (vs LAL) if you want the Spurs to make the play-in. This also would help the Jazz stay ahead of the Raptors, giving the Spurs a better draft slot on that pick.

[Mr. Body]

Washington and New York both eliminated from play-in contention. We'll see if they just straight up tank now.

[MannyIsGod]

its not impossible the Raptors end up with a better pick than the Celtics , lol. Raptors are 2.5 games back so it would take a big drop from the Cs but not impossible. Looking like 23 for the Celtics right now, and 20 for the Raptors. That being said, there are a ton of teams clustered near their records and the Raptors pick could realistically be as high as 18 but also as low as 25. Same goes for the Celtics but with an obvious higher floor.

Either way looks like 2 picks in the low 20s.


Spurs are almost certainly locked into 8-11 at this point. Barring of course, they make the play in and make the playoffs. I don't think they're very likely to catch the Pelicans, but the wizards could drop below although that doesn't seem all that likely either. Still all these teams are so close we'll see.


Its interesting on whether or not the Spurs would be better off from a financial perspective picking at 15 and getting the extra playoff revenue. Probably not, but I don't think its fundamentally a big difference either way.

[exstatic]

LOL Brooklyn. They're 3 way tied with ATL and CHA, and may drop into the lottery half of the play in.

[Spurminator]

Count me on the "Just Win" bandwagon.

More often than not, building confidence through success and getting playoff/play-in experience is more valuable to the team overall than improving your draft position from 15ish to 10ish.

[exstatic]

Count me on the "Just Win" bandwagon.

More often than not, building confidence through success and getting playoff/play-in experience is more valuable to the team overall than improving your draft position from 15ish to 10ish.

We will be in the lottery. No way we win two road games to get into the playoffs. So, that being said, where we finish isn't necessarily where we draft. That's why it's the lottery. You're still thinking in terms of PICKING 10th or 9th, and team tank is looking at the odds of jumping from 10 or 9 into the top 4. #10 has a 13.9% chance. #9 has a 20.2% chance. #8, where we currently are, has a 26.2% chance. The overwhelming bulk of the talent in any draft is in the top 3-4 picks. Sure, there are outliers, your Giannis, Kawhi, Joker, Draymond, but outliers are what they are, scarce and few and far between. Your best bet is a top 4 pick. Just slipping from 8 to 10 cuts our chances in half. That's why some posters don't care about a meaningless game #83.

[duncan2150]

Washington and New York both eliminated from play-in contention. We'll see if they just straight up tank now.

Yes i think Wash will still play the same guys : KP and co.... We'll see what NY will do. Ny with a good calendar ( orlando, wash in two of their last 5 ), wash with a toughest schedule ( ATL,CHA, Minny DAL. BOS).

Good that the Toronto will likely convey, 90% if they win against Orlando tonight.

[Ariel]

LOL Brooklyn. They're 3 way tied with ATL and CHA, and may drop into the lottery half of the play in.
Well, that's yet another reminder of the risks involved in trading everything and your house for a superstar... it may work ocassionally and for the short run, but more often than not it doesn't and it mortgages your entire future for years and years. In their case it was necessary because of the commitments they made when signing KD and Kyrie, much like the Lakers did when they signed LeBron or the Clippers when they signed Kawhi, but going that route leaves you handcuffed and at the mercy of someone who only thinks now and won't pay the full consequences of their choices. I'd rather build bottom up.

[Mr. Body]

Well, that's yet another reminder of the risks involved in trading everything and your house for a superstar... it may work ocassionally and for the short run, but more often than not it doesn't and it mortgages your entire future for years and years. In their case it was necessary because of the commitments they made when signing KD and Kyrie, much like the Lakers did when they signed LeBron or the Clippers when they signed Kawhi, but going that route leaves you handcuffed and at the mercy of someone who only thinks now and won't pay the full consequences of their choices. I'd rather build bottom up.

Brooklyn's issues are more due to massive amounts of injuries and one player not playing for most of the season.

[Spurminator]

We will be in the lottery. No way we win two road games to get into the playoffs. So, that being said, where we finish isn't necessarily where we draft. That's why it's the lottery. You're still thinking in terms of PICKING 10th or 9th, and team tank is looking at the odds of jumping from 10 or 9 into the top 4. #10 has a 13.9% chance. #9 has a 20.2% chance. #8, where we currently are, has a 26.2% chance. The overwhelming bulk of the talent in any draft is in the top 3-4 picks. Sure, there are outliers, your Giannis, Kawhi, Joker, Draymond, but outliers are what they are, scarce and few and far between. Your best bet is a top 4 pick. Just slipping from 8 to 10 cuts our chances in half. That's why some posters don't care about a meaningless game #83.

I understand the Lottery system. I'd rather go for it than tank for a 1/4 chance at a top 4 pick when the better odds are that our pick will be around the 10 spot.

It's better for the overall experience of the guys we have now to play in important games. And I like their odds of winning a road game in #83 better than I like their odds of lucking into a top 5 pick.

[Ariel]

Brooklyn's issues are more due to massive amounts of injuries and one player not playing for most of the season.
Yes, but that's a consequence of how such teams are built, with a couple aging (and troubled) superstars and filling out the rest with whatever leftover pieces you can find, which is mostly veterans way past their prime or flawed players with something to prove.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Count me on the "Just Win" bandwagon.

More often than not, building confidence through success and getting playoff/play-in experience is more valuable to the team overall than improving your draft position from 15ish to 10ish.

I wonder where some of you get your inside NBA information. You do realize that the Spurs picked Lonnie with the 18th pick in the 2018 draft? If they had the #10 pick, they still could have drafted Lonnie if they wanted him. (Everyone available at 18 was available at 10.) But they also could have drafted Mikal Bridges or SGA. So tell me, how did that 47-35 record in 17-18 work as far as developing a winning culture? Did it outweigh actually getting a starter in the draft that year? Bridges has started 160 games in the NBA. SGA has started 234. And both have averaged 30 minutes per game, or a little more. Lonnie has started 50 games, and averaged 19 minutes, both heavily boosted by this season. And don't talk to me about Lonnie 2.0, because your argument is about winning culture. and the #10 pick that year absolutley would have contributed more than a first round exit.


We will be in the lottery. No way we win two road games to get into the playoffs. So, that being said, where we finish isn't necessarily where we draft. That's why it's the lottery. You're still thinking in terms of PICKING 10th or 9th, and team tank is looking at the odds of jumping from 10 or 9 into the top 4. #10 has a 13.9% chance. #9 has a 20.2% chance. #8, where we currently are, has a 26.2% chance. The overwhelming bulk of the talent in any draft is in the top 3-4 picks. Sure, there are outliers, your Giannis, Kawhi, Joker, Draymond, but outliers are what they are, scarce and few and far between. Your best bet is a top 4 pick. Just slipping from 8 to 10 cuts our chances in half. That's why some posters don't care about a meaningless game #83.

The problem is that the Pels could easily decide to tank a single play-in game. If they finish 14 or worse, they keep their first round pick, and only have to give up two future second rounders. After that? Pop himself said that he hated 3-game playoff series, because anything can happen over 3 games, and the best team is less likely to win. The Spurs could have one of those nights when guys are lighting up 3's and, poof!, there goes the lottery.

Not only that, the dropoff in lottery odds between 8 and 11 is tremendous. Between 8 and 12 is just sickening. You, at least, understand that outliers happen - but you don't win the long game by fighting the odds. This was a golden opportunity for the Spurs, and I'm guessing that DJ and Keldon would love to have another really good young player on the court next season. The question really should be, "Which rout gives them the best shot at that??

[exstatic]

I wonder where some of you get your inside NBA information. You do realize that the Spurs picked Lonnie with the 18th pick in the 2018 draft? If they had the #10 pick, they still could have drafted Lonnie if they wanted him. (Everyone available at 18 was available at 10.) But they also could have drafted Mikal Bridges or SGA. So tell me, how did that 47-35 record in 17-18 work as far as developing a winning culture? Did it outweigh actually getting a starter in the draft that year? Bridges has started 160 games in the NBA. SGA has started 234. And both have averaged 30 minutes per game, or a little more. Lonnie has started 50 games, and averaged 19 minutes, both heavily boosted by this season. And don't talk to me about Lonnie 2.0, because your argument is about winning culture. and the #10 pick that year absolutley would have contributed more than a first round exit.



The problem is that the Pels could easily decide to tank a single play-in game. If they finish 14 or worse, they keep their first round pick, and only have to give up two future second rounders. After that? Pop himself said that he hated 3-game playoff series, because anything can happen over 3 games, and the best team is less likely to win. The Spurs could have one of those nights when guys are lighting up 3's and, poof!, there goes the lottery.

Not only that, the dropoff in lottery odds between 8 and 11 is tremendous. Between 8 and 12 is just sickening. You, at least, understand that outliers happen - but you don't win the long game by fighting the odds. This was a golden opportunity for the Spurs, and I'm guessing that DJ and Keldon would love to have another really good young player on the court next season. The question really should be, "Which rout gives them the best shot at that??

If N.O. were that worried about conveying the pick, I don't think they would have even tried for the play in, and would be competing with Portland for Biggest Loser. I think they want to show Zion they're doing all they can to win. They were down in the 6-8 area before they put on this burst. Shouldn't they have stayed there if they were worried about the pick?

[Spurminator]

I wonder where some of you get your inside NBA information. You do realize that the Spurs picked Lonnie with the 18th pick in the 2018 draft? If they had the #10 pick, they still could have drafted Lonnie if they wanted him. (Everyone available at 18 was available at 10.) But they also could have drafted Mikal Bridges or SGA. So tell me, how did that 47-35 record in 17-18 work as far as developing a winning culture? Did it outweigh actually getting a starter in the draft that year? Bridges has started 160 games in the NBA. SGA has started 234. And both have averaged 30 minutes per game, or a little more. Lonnie has started 50 games, and averaged 19 minutes, both heavily boosted by this season. And don't talk to me about Lonnie 2.0, because your argument is about winning culture. and the #10 pick that year absolutley would have contributed more than a first round exit.

Hard to go wrong when you can choose any previous draft and assume the Spurs would have picked the best option at #10 in that draft.

Yeah they might have drafted Bridges or SGA. They also might have drafted Jerome Robinson. Kevin Knox might've fallen to them. Maybe they could have tanked harder and gotten Marvin Bagley III, Mo Bamba or Wendell Carter Jr.

Anyway seems like you're leaving out a few other key details about what happened to the Spurs in the summer of 2018 that would have led to the next season's result.

[ZeusWillJudge]

If N.O. were that worried about conveying the pick, I don't think they would have even tried for the play in, and would be competing with Portland for Biggest Loser. I think they want to show Zion they're doing all they can to win. They were down in the 6-8 area before they put on this burst. Shouldn't they have stayed there if they were worried about the pick?


Yeah, that's psychology stuff. It's always hard to guess what's in someone else's head. But look at it this way. People keep talking about how important it is for young guys to see themselves winning games. They could easily say that they've done that, and come about as far as they can - so now get them a decent first round pick for next year. At the very least, a lottery pick is a strong bargaining chip if they're thinking about a trade.

You're probably right, and the Pels looked to be trying as hard as they could to get to the playoffs this season, without Zion. But now? I dunno, maybe. The thought of the Spurs winning two play-in games and losing any shot in the lottery just makes me all crazy-like. They were actually in control of their own destiny, and I just don't think a first round loss is a very good destiny. But I'm starting to sound like a broken record. They're gonna do what they're gonna do.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Hard to go wrong when you can choose any previous draft and assume the Spurs would have picked the best option at #10 in that draft.

Yeah they might have drafted Bridges or SGA. They also might have drafted Jerome Robinson. Kevin Knox might've fallen to them. Maybe they could have tanked harder and gotten Marvin Bagley III, Mo Bamba or Wendell Carter Jr.

Anyway seems like you're leaving out a few other key details about what happened to the Spurs in the summer of 2018 that would have led to the next season's result.


Sorry, that's BS. I started to head that argument off in advance, but decided to keep it shorter. I didn't pull out Jokic going at #41 or anything like that. I picked the most recent, and most obvious example, specifically Spurs. If you think the Spurs would still have taken Lonnie Walker at #10 that draft, you need to take those glasses off.

Besides, you're avoiding the point. Did that first round exit really contribute a lot to a "winning culture" in SA, like you said? More than the #10 pick that you used in your example?

[Spurminator]

Sorry, that's BS. I started to head that argument off in advance, but decided to keep it shorter. I didn't pull out Jokic going at #41 or anything like that. I picked the most recent, and most obvious example, specifically Spurs. If you think the Spurs would still have taken Lonnie Walker at #10 that draft, you need to take those glasses off.

I never made any argument about who the Spurs should have taken at #10. They didn't have the #10 pick.


Besides, you're avoiding the point. Did that first round exit really contribute a lot to a "winning culture" in SA, like you said? More than the #10 pick that you used in your example?

It's kind of hard to measure what direct effect any result has on a team who completely overhauls its roster as a result of a disgruntled superstar forcing a trade. Again, do you remember 2018? In hindsight, sure it probably would have been better if the FO had seen the writing on the wall and blown the whole thing up during the 17-18 season, but we're in an entirely different situation in 2022. It's a bad comparison.

[Mr. Body]

Washington stomped Dallas tonight. I'm surprised. Like, not even close. Maybe a fluke. Not sure if Dallas is trying to slide down to the 4/5, which doesn't make sense. Anyway helps keep air between Spurs and Wizards which is very nice.

[BackHome]

Yeah at end of season you will see some teams loose for matchups and some teams will try to win for matchups just depends on team

[Mr. Body]

Yeah at end of season you will see some teams loose for matchups and some teams will try to win for matchups just depends on team

Clearly. I'm saying I'm not sure why Dallas would cough this up if so. It matches them with Phoenix in the second round.

[Spurminator]

Washington was on fire tonight. You can't tank an opponent into shooting the way they did. Dallas just got stomped.

[BackHome]

Well Curry is out for the remaining regular season so Golden State will drop

[duncan2150]

Washington stomped Dallas tonight. I'm surprised. Like, not even close. Maybe a fluke. Not sure if Dallas is trying to slide down to the 4/5, which doesn't make sense. Anyway helps keep air between Spurs and Wizards which is very nice.

Yeah really suprising, i think the end of the season will be strange between teams focusing for the PO or others teams who just want to play ( Indiana not far from beating Boston yesterday)

Toronto with the win, pretty sure they will be in the top 6 so we'll have the pick.

[exstatic]

Well Curry is out for the remaining regular season so Golden State will drop

He’s been out for awhile. The rest of the season is like 5-6 games.

[Mr. Body]

NYK got spanked by Cleveland. Randle seems to be in mothballs. After a presumed win against Portland, the Spurs will be a single win behind NYK, Washington, Pelicans. Then the Spurs get four hard games against teams presumably jockeying for position, sort of: Dallas, Minnesota, Denver, and GSW, although they are missing Curry. Significant risk the Spurs slip to 10, 11, or even 12, although New Orleans isn't tanking and their schedule is fairly easy.

[exstatic]

NYK got spanked by Cleveland. Randle seems to be in mothballs. After a presumed win against Portland, the Spurs will be a single win behind NYK, Washington, Pelicans. Then the Spurs get four hard games against teams presumably jockeying for position, sort of: Dallas, Minnesota, Denver, and GSW, although they are missing Curry. Significant risk the Spurs slip to 10, 11, or even 12, although New Orleans isn't tanking and their schedule is fairly easy.

New York is 6-4 in their last 10, same as us. If they’re tanking, they’re doing a pass poor job of it by winning 60%, Recently. They are, however, not very good or very consistent.

[objective]

Knicks have started their tank and shut Randle down the rest of the season.

Would not surprise me to see them get past the Spurs. Pop wanted to turn that 7 pick into a 12 or 15

[Mr. Body]

New York is 6-4 in their last 10, same as us. If they’re tanking, they’re doing a pass poor job of it by winning 60%, Recently. They are, however, not very good or very consistent.

They just fell out of play-in contention. I think they're packing it in.

[mystargtr34]

I still think the Spurs go 1-4 in their last 5 which gives them a 33-49 record. I don’t think GS or Dallas will be sitting guys in the last 2 games as they are locked in tight battles for playoff seeding but who knows anything can happen by the last day of the season.

The Knicks are currently 34-44 so they’d need to lose all 4 games to finish 34-48 and stay above the Spurs in the standings. One of their games is @Orlando who are tanking too so hopefully they out tank the Knicks there. Knicks also play Washington, Brooklyn and Toronto. I think they lose all of those. Washington May decide to rest their main guys for that one to fight the Knicks for lottery position.

The Lakers would need to go 3-2 over their last 5 to end up with a better record than the Spurs if the Spurs go 1-4 down the stretch. One game against OKC and the other games are Denver x2, GS and Phoenix hopefully Phoenix rests their main guys given they are locked in at 1 seed. I could also see the Lakers maybe beating GS without Steph. If they have Bron and AD.

[MultiTroll]

Soft Jazz rounding into playoff form.

[BatManu20]

No way Spurs go 1-4 in their last 5 games imo. These better teams like Denver and Minny will start resting guys in their last 2-3 games imo. Whereas the Spurs are trying to win every game.

[emanueldavidginobili]

No way Spurs go 1-4 in their last 5 games imo. These better teams like Denver and Minny will start resting guys in their last 2-3 games imo. Whereas the Spurs are trying to win every game.
No they won't. Minny is 2 games back from the playoffs and has the tiebreaker over DEN. If Minny goes 4-0 and Denver goes 2-2 Minny gets in the playoffs and DEN goes to the Play In. Timberwolves last 4 games Rockets, Wizards, Spurs, and the Bulls. Nuggets last 4 Lakers, Spurs, Grizzlies, and the Lakers.

[exstatic]

No way Spurs go 1-4 in their last 5 games imo. These better teams like Denver and Minny will start resting guys in their last 2-3 games imo. Whereas the Spurs are trying to win every game.

Have you LOOKED at the standings? There are 5 teams with 29 or 30 losses, and another 4 teams with 32 or 33. Brooklyn just dropped into the 9/10 playoff last night, and that probably scared the crap out of a number of teams.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah I'm honestly not sure why anyone expects teams to rest much. Maybe the last game of the season but even not then if things aren't clear. Standings way too cluttered.

[KingKev]

It is ridiculous how many Sours fans on other forums, bords are so confident we can package our 3 FRPs to move into the top 5. Combining Boston and the Raps firsts might move you from 19 to 15. Assuming we draft 10, packaging all 3 might move you a few spots.

[Degoat]

It is ridiculous how many Sours fans on other forums, bords are so confident we can package our 3 FRPs to move into the top 5. Combining Boston and the Raps firsts might move you from 19 to 15. Assuming we draft 10, packaging all 3 might move you a few spots.

Definitely not top 5 but moving up isn’t whoaaa crazy imo just like every year there will be surprising prospects who move up and down the draft board, I honestly hope the spurs keep all 3 picks and use them this year, I’m confident the spurs can fine at least one major contributor with one of them. Imagine if the spurs didnt have the pick that resulted in Keldon and only had the pick that got us Luka Samanic lmao

[KingKev]

Definitely not top 5 but moving up isn’t whoaaa crazy imo just like every year there will be surprising prospects who move up and down the draft board, I honestly hope the spurs keep all 3 picks and use them this year, I’m confident the spurs can fine at least one major contributor with one of them. Imagine if the spurs didnt have the pick that resulted in Keldon and only had the pick that got us Luka Samanic lmao

Agreed just take multiple swings and trust the scouting/development process which is one thing we still do pretty well.

[mo7888]

Definitely not top 5 but moving up isn’t whoaaa crazy imo just like every year there will be surprising prospects who move up and down the draft board, I honestly hope the spurs keep all 3 picks and use them this year, I’m confident the spurs can fine at least one major contributor with one of them. Imagine if the spurs didnt have the pick that resulted in Keldon and only had the pick that got us Luka Samanic lmao

I agree with the sentiment... I just don't think we want to add three rookies this off-season... I'd rather package a couple and move up or trade one of them for a future first..

[exstatic]

I’d like to use our lottery pick for now, draft and stash Jovic, and kick the other pick down the road a year or two for a future FRP.

[TD 21]

It is ridiculous how many Sours fans on other forums, bords are so confident we can package our 3 FRPs to move into the top 5. Combining Boston and the Raps firsts might move you from 19 to 15. Assuming we draft 10, packaging all 3 might move you a few spots.

Yeah, that almost certainly wouldn't to it, but there are paths to 5 if they want it badly enough.

Generally, that type of move requires a perceived good, young player. So they'd probably either need the team in that spot to have a need/interest on Poeltl or bring in a third team (Hornets) that does and get them a piece who fits that description.

Let's say the Hornets would be willing to do Washington, Jones and their 1st for Poeltl and the Raptors/Celtics 1st. The Spurs could then package their own pick, Washington and the remaining Raptors/Celtics 1st to get to 5.



I agree with the sentiment... I just don't think we want to add three rookies this off-season... I'd rather package a couple and move up or trade one of them for a future first..

I'd be shocked if the Spurs used all 3 1sts. With 4 top 40 picks and quantity of youth already on the roster, the goal coming out of this draft should be to utilize the picks to get 1-2 quality prospects instead of a cadre of projects.

[BackHome]

My guess for picks:

11th pick - Yeah kinda sucks but oh well we made play in - Yippie
18th pick - Well at least we get Raptors pick
27th pick - Sucks who would have think the tear Celtics would go on?
37th - Flakers keep on giving

[rascal]

The Spurs should have tanked for Ivey.

[MultiTroll]

David McCormack Kansas.

Any of you flamers think he could be an off the bench guy in the NBA?
Great rebounder.

[exstatic]

David McCormack Kansas.

Any of you flamers think he could be an off the bench guy in the NBA?
Great rebounder.

Rebounding translates, but if he has nothing else, he’ll be a borderline gleague/NBA player like Cacok, who was one of the best NCAA rebounders in his time at UNCW.

[MultiTroll]

Rebounding translates, but if he has nothing else, he’ll be a borderline gleague/NBA player like Cacok, who was one of the best NCAA rebounders in his time at UNCW.
I think Cacok should have been given some more burn.
Did not disappoint when in, albeit mostly garbage time.
The only 2 games he got any minutes (16 and 23) did not disappoint.

Drew Eubanks and Forbes minutes good. Cacoks not. :pop:

Back to McCormack, also defends very well. Hits close in shots but no three pointer.
Is a Senior so dk how much that figures in (body development vs 18-19 year old babyfaces.)

[Ariel]

Here's the remaining schedule for every team which could affect the 1st, 2nd and 3rd first rounders respectively. Projected wins in green:
https://i.ibb.co/3SRX66n/projected-picks.png
It's an optimistic scenario if you're looking for the best picks possible, but not unrealistic. If it were to happen and the Spurs don't succeed in advancing to the playoffs through the play in, then they would be in a tie for the 8th pick (randomly decided with the Lakers), the Toronto pick would fall in the 20th place, and the Boston pick would be at 23, though this could vary significantly, since Boston has only 3 games remaining that are tough, and dropping one or two would be huge for us.

[MannyIsGod]

RAPTOR currently has Boston finishing with the 25th pick, Raptors with the 20th, and us going into the lottery with the 9th best odds.

[Mr. Body]

RAPTOR currently has Boston finishing with the 25th pick, Raptors with the 20th, and us going into the lottery with the 9th best odds.

I'd take those without question. The #9 isn't as bad as it could be and the rest is gravy. My list is short at this point -- Keegan Murray, Jeremy Sochan, Tari Eason. The other picks only if someone they really want is there (or move up a bit), or a stash, otherwise get future capital for them.

[3&D_TBH]

I would take Sochan with our first pick unless Murray were available which he won’t be. Sochan fits a need and could be a lot of fun. A potential glue guy with great versatility. Please! We need size at the 4 and the 3 desperately.

[BatManu20]

Whoever we draft is going to be very young and will be a role player for the next 3+ years at least. Spurs need to make moves to acquire other talent tbh. Dejounte is going to be 30 before we know it.

[exstatic]

Whoever we draft is going to be very young and will be a role player for the next 3+ years at least. Spurs need to make moves to acquire other talent tbh. Dejounte is going to be 30 before we know it.

That’s the way it works if you don’t get one of the top 3-4 picks. BTW, we’ll probably have collected theChicago pick before DJ turns 30.

[BatManu20]

Fwiw, latest B/R Mock from yesterday has us taking:

8. Bennedict Mathurin
20. MarJon Beauchamp
23. Walker Kessler.

I don’t think any of them will be Spurs personally. But that’s what they think as of right now.


https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10031373-2022-nba-mock-draft-updated-1st-round-predictions-before-ncaa-championship.amp.html

[exstatic]

Fwiw, latest B/R Mock from yesterday has us taking:

8. Bennedict Mathurin
20. MarJon Beauchamp
23. Walker Kessler.

I don’t think any of them will be Spurs personally. But that’s what they think as of right now.


https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10031373-2022-nba-mock-draft-updated-1st-round-predictions-before-ncaa-championship.amp.html

Most mocks don’t match with needs until the lottery is over and actual positioning is known.

[duncan2150]

So we officialy have Toronto's pick. Good news imo.

[SpurSpike]

So we officialy have Toronto's pick. Good news imo.

I guess now we are rooting for the Bulls to overtake Toronto's #5 spot in the seeding for a slightly better draft pick.

[Seventyniner]

I guess now we are rooting for the Bulls to overtake Toronto's #5 spot in the seeding for a slightly better draft pick.

Yup. We should be pulling hard for Chicago tonight against Boston, mainly because we want Boston to finish with a worse record than the other teams currently with 29 or 30 losses (GS, DAL, MIL, PHI). Chicago winning and having a shot to overtake Toronto is gravy.

It's also time for the Spurs to mini-tank and try to lose the last 3 games. NO/NY/WAS are all 35-44, and the Spurs losing out would put them at 34-48, assuring them a draft slot ahead of all three of those teams assuming neither NO nor SA makes the playoffs.

[rascal]

Spurs are getting the 10th or 11th pick.

[BatManu20]

I guess now we are rooting for the Bulls to overtake Toronto's #5 spot in the seeding for a slightly better draft pick.

Not happening sadly. Bulls are turrible. Lost 9 of their last 13 games.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Spurs are getting the 10th or 11th pick.


The Knicks and Wizards only have 2 games left, but one of them is against each other. So one of them has to get another loss. If the Spurs win out, they have to drop at least 1 slot - but two slots is more likely, and they could easily drop to 12.


I just ran a quick matrix, and the most likely outcome is either tied for 11 or in a three-way tie for 10.

[MannyIsGod]

Incredibly unlikely the Spurs win more than one game. One of the Knicks and wizards has to win one more game so it's highly unlikely we pass both. Spurs sliding past a two way tie for ninth therefore isn't very likely at all.

[MannyIsGod]

Spurs remaining odds:

20% @ Wolves
52% vs Warriors
18% @ Dallas

.2 * .52 * .18 gives us a 1.872% Chance to win out. This is probably too low because who knows whats going to happen against Dallas and the Spurs are playing better than 538's model is giving them credit for, but its still a low probability event. The Wolves game with no Murray is going to be exceedingly tough to win because they will be playing hard. The Warriors and Mavs, who knows, much more of toss ups depending on who plays and what NOLA does and what happens against the Wolves.

The Knicks and Wiz play each other next, and that is basically a toss up, but not sure it matters who wins. Both already have 35 wins, and at least one has to end up with 36. I don't believe it very likely the Spurs end up with 36 wins, so slipping to the 11th spot is very unlikely, IMO. Slipping to the 12 would require us to go undefeated, and that is also incredibly unlikely as it also requires NOLA to implode. NOLA finishing below 36 wins is highly unlikely since they play Portland at home tomorrow.

Assuming the above odds are correct, we have a 30% chance of going 0-3 in the final 3 games. That would give us the 9th spot in the lottery. There are also scenarios where we win a game and still finish 9th, so the odds of that are even higher than just the 30%. Its definitely the single most likely scenario in play, but the sum of the other scenarios is likely higher but I'm too lazy to calculate them all.

[R. DeMurre]

Kinda funny to watch OKC try and work the system by signing 3 G Leaguers to 10 day "hardship" contracts, only to have one of them-- Jaylen Hoard-- have the best week of his young career, posting two 20 pt games and two 20 rebound games, including one monster game of 24 pts, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals. I imagine Presti was hoping they'd go 0-4 in this stretch, but instead they went 2-2 in games where Hoard got minutes. Good for him-- and now he'll have the attention of scouts all over the league.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Incredibly unlikely the Spurs win more than one game. One of the Knicks and wizards has to win one more game so it's highly unlikely we pass both. Spurs sliding past a two way tie for ninth therefore isn't very likely at all.


In the heart of the season, you're probably right. But with teams having 2 or 3 games left, it's hard to figure who "should" win or lose - so I didn't discount games nearly as heavily based on opponents. GSW will be without Steph, and they rested Klay last game, even though they are supposedly playing all-out for seeding. There are other teams who will be resting top-tier players for the upcoming playoffs. I looked at the number of scenarios that COULD happpen in those last 2-3 games that result in the Spurs dropping one slot to 10th. That seems pretty likely.

One thing is for sure. Either the Knicks or the Wizards WILL lose one of their remaining two games, because they play each other. I think it's pretty likely that the loser of that game also loses their last game, to move up one slot in the lottery (assuming the Spurs don't go 0-3). What do you think?

NO has clinched a play-in berth, but they can't move up to the top half of the play-in. Their home and away record is almost identical. They don't have a lot to play hard for in their last 3 games. If the Spurs play hard, and NO isn't motivated? The Spurs could VERY easily move above them record-wise.

I did work things from the back end, and what I meant to say was "tied for 10th (so a chance of the 11 lottery seed)" or "a three way tie for 9th (so a 2/3 chance of getting the 10 or 11 seed)". I would take an even-odds bet that at least two teams wind up tied at 36-46.

At this point, pretty much every season, there are bad teams playing loose against pretty-good teams trying to rest players for the first round, and we see "upsets". The Spurs have been competing really hard at the end of the season. Put all that together, and it's an odds-on bet that they wind up with the 10th seed or worse when it's all said and done.

[duncan2150]

One thing is for sure. Either the Knicks or the Wizards WILL lose one of their remaining two games, because they play each other. I think it's pretty likely that the loser of that game also loses their last game, to move up one slot in the lottery (assuming the Spurs don't go 0-3). What do you think?



and that's a good news taht they play each other one time ( if the spurs don't make the Po).

Imo key matcup for the standings is tonight in Minny, i think Spurs could win vs GS but they can rest some players vs Dallas.

I see a win or two for the spurs but we could go 0-3 if we lose tonight.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Spurs remaining odds:

20% @ Wolves
52% vs Warriors
18% @ Dallas

.2 * .52 * .18 gives us a 1.872% Chance to win out. This is probably too low because who knows whats going to happen against Dallas and the Spurs are playing better than 538's model is giving them credit for, but its still a low probability event. The Wolves game with no Murray is going to be exceedingly tough to win because they will be playing hard. The Warriors and Mavs, who knows, much more of toss ups depending on who plays and what NOLA does and what happens against the Wolves.

The Knicks and Wiz play each other next, and that is basically a toss up, but not sure it matters who wins. Both already have 35 wins, and at least one has to end up with 36. I don't believe it very likely the Spurs end up with 36 wins, so slipping to the 11th spot is very unlikely, IMO. Slipping to the 12 would require us to go undefeated, and that is also incredibly unlikely as it also requires NOLA to implode. NOLA finishing below 36 wins is highly unlikely since they play Portland at home tomorrow.

Assuming the above odds are correct, we have a 30% chance of going 0-3 in the final 3 games. That would give us the 9th spot in the lottery. There are also scenarios where we win a game and still finish 9th, so the odds of that are even higher than just the 30%. Its definitely the single most likely scenario in play, but the sum of the other scenarios is likely higher but I'm too lazy to calculate them all.


Nah, that's really good work. The ony part I'm skeptical about is that teams' expectations should be the same as their regular season records indicate. But you have to go with some assumptions, and there's nothing inherently wrong with yours.

I thought DJ was supposed to be back tonight against Minny. If he's not, that's a thumb on the scale for sure. Still, if they finish 1-2, it's REALLY likely they wind up tied with someone at 36-46, and that's a coin-toss to move down 1 in the draft.

Being without Murray tonight makes 12th seed REALLY unlikely, and even 11 would probably take losing a tiebreaker. But I still think 10 is where they land when it's all overa and done.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Kinda funny to watch OKC try and work the system by signing 3 G Leaguers to 10 day "hardship" contracts, only to have one of them-- Jaylen Hoard-- have the best week of his young career, posting two 20 pt games and two 20 rebound games, including one monster game of 24 pts, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals. I imagine Presti was hoping they'd go 0-4 in this stretch, but instead they went 2-2 in games where Hoard got minutes. Good for him-- and now he'll have the attention of scouts all over the league.


My favorite post of the month, hands down. I didn't know about all of that, but I always like to see an overlooked guy make good with an opportunity. And I still haven't been able to rid myself of the ghosts of Harden and Westbrook, where OKC is involved. It's sort of dumb, but we Olympians are just that petty.

[duncan2150]

Murray is out tonight

[Russ]

The Spurs could still (theoretically at least) get the 8th lottery spot if they go 0-3, the Lakers go 3-0 and the Spurs win a coin flip.

[ZeusWillJudge]

The Spurs could still (theoretically at least) get the 8th lottery spot if they go 0-3, the Lakers go 3-0 and the Spurs win a coin flip.


LOL. I said I didn't discount outcomes based on opponents, but you're right that could happen and I totally ruled out the Lakers going 3-0.

Of course the Spurs could win two play-in games and drop to 15 in the draft. Imagine being a coin toss away from picking 8, and then jumping straight to 15. That's a pretty big range of possible outcomes.




Murray is out tonight

Thanks. Is this still the respiratory infection. or is there something else I haven't heard?

[duncan2150]

Thanks. Is this still the respiratory infection. or is there something else I haven't heard?

Yes still the same infection: upper respiratory illness.

[Seventyniner]

The Spurs could still (theoretically at least) get the 8th lottery spot if they go 0-3, the Lakers go 3-0 and the Spurs win a coin flip.

True.

I'm not in favor of hard tanking over a large chunk of the season, but I don't think throwing the next 3 games will take any mental toll on the team now that they've already clinched a play-in berth. Especially with a ready-made excuse for Murray to sit the last 3 games.

The sign to look for is if Poeltl sits imo. He's probably the player with the biggest dropoff from him to those who would get his minutes.

[CGD]

Getting 8th pick while making play in would be a great outcome.

[Mr. Body]

I'm going to buck the trend and say the Spurs win two of these three games and ends up with the 10th pick.

[BatManu20]

Welp. Sixers choke on a fat one and lose to the Raptors without Siakim playing. So much for that pick dropping.

[Mr. Body]

Welp. Sixers choke on a fat one and lose to the Raptors without Siakim playing. So much for that pick dropping.

Siakam had 37 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists. Imagine if he'd been playing.

[BatManu20]

Siakam had 37 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists. Imagine if he'd been playing.

Dammit brain fart :lol. I meant VanVleet.

[Ariel]

These is the summary of the current pick situation:
https://i.ibb.co/JK7LwRJ/picks.png
Basically:
The first pick could be as high as 9, with Washington and New York as primary competitors. It looks like it should be at 9.
The second pick (Toronto) could be as high 19, with Utah and Denver as primary competitors. A tie with Utah and/or Denver seems likely, so the pick would fall between 20 and 22 (table is wrong in that reads 20-21 when it should be 20-22)
The third pick (Boston) could be as high as 23, with Philadelphia, Dallas, Milwaukee and Golden State as primary competitors. A tie with Philly seems likely, so the pick would fall between 23 and 24.

[exstatic]

Getting 8th pick while making play in would be a great outcome.

We can no longer get the 8th pick. We have 3 less losses than LA, with two games left.

[CGD]

^ i see.

So basically, it looks like Raptors are locked into #5 in the East, but BOS can still fall to #4 if MEM beats them and/or PHI wins their last games. Go Philly!

[objective]

After his 16th technical, looks like Doncic will be suspended for Sunday against the Spurs.

Bad news for the Spurs pick potentially

[Ariel]

Picks watch update:
https://i.ibb.co/ydLcyQZ/picks.png
Some bad news today, as Houston and Utah seemed to be in great position vs Toronto and Phoenix respectively, and both collapsed late in the game. Utah was just steamrolled by Phoenix in the 4th quarter... Suns looking like a lock to come out of the west, provided nothing weird happens.

[Ariel]

The one positive news concerning the Toronto pick is that teams contending with Toronto are in the West, where seeding will come down to the wire, whereas Toronto in the East will have locked its seeding by the last game, and may thus rest players the final game.
Doncic being suspended might not matter much if Pop chooses to rest guys, which would sound like the reasonable way to go, considering Spurs play on Saturday and Sunday, and play in game is on Wednesday.

[BatManu20]

After his 16th technical, looks like Doncic will be suspended for Sunday against the Spurs.

Bad news for the Spurs pick potentially

Dejounte still out too. But yea no Luka is prob an L for the Mavs.

[BatManu20]

Rockets blow a late 4th Qtr lead to Toronto. Utah blows a late 4th Qtr lead at home to the Suns. This pushes the Toronto pick down from 20 to 22. Big drop if it stays that way.

Raps play their last game against the shitty Knicks so prob a victory. Need the Nuggets and Jazz to win their remaining games regardless.

[MannyIsGod]

Spurs are most likely to end up in the 9th spot. Like 9 times out of 10 likely. About half of those times, they are tied with Washington, but the other half they have it alone. A tiny fraction of the time there is a 3 way tie for 9th. The other 10 percent of the time is mostly 10th but we can finish 11th.

This is all based on a model that doesn't know whos sitting or playing so its not totally accurate, but should give people a reasonable expectation. We really really really need to lose against GS.


Spurs odds to win

50% vs Warriors
17% at Mavs

8.5% chance of going 2 - 0 and finishing with 36 wins
50 % chance of going 1-1
41.4$ chance of going 0 - 2

0 - 2 gives us the 9th worst record regardless of what NYK or Washington do.

NYK have a 61% chance of getting to 37 wins, so 39% chance they stay at 36.
Washington has a 19% chance of getting to 36 wins, so 81% chance they stay at 35.

Scenarios

Spurs tie for 11th

Knicks 36W
Spurs 36W
Wizards 35W
2.7%



Spurs alone in 10th

Knicks 37W
Spurs 36W
Wizards 35W
4.2%

Spurs tie for 10th

Knicks 37W
Spurs 36W
Wizards 36W
1%

All 3 teams tie for 9th

Knicks 36W
Spurs 36W
Wizards 36W
.6%

Spurs and wizards tie for 9th

Wizards 35W
Spurs 35W
40.5%

Spurs alone in 9th
50.9%

Wizards 36W
Spurs 35W
9.5%

Spurs 34W
41.4%

[ZeusWillJudge]

Look at the standings now, and you can see what I was telling you a couple of days ago:

You don't want to read all the what-ifs, but the Spurs really can't afford to win both of their last 2.

The good news is GSW will be playing hard for position, and if they beat the Spurs it will be a desperate Dallas team they face on the second night of a B2B. But without Doncic, that's still a concern.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Spurs are most likely to end up in the 9th spot. Like 9 times out of 10 likely. About half of those times, they are tied with Washington, but the other half they have it alone. A tiny fraction of the time there is a 3 way tie for 9th. The other 10 percent of the time is mostly 10th but we can finish 11th.

This is all based on a model that doesn't know whos sitting or playing so its not totally accurate, but should give people a reasonable expectation. We really really really need to lose against GS.



Your model didn't include any possibility of the Pels losing to both Memphis and GSW? I can see that happening easily. Sure wouldn't want the Spurs to win 2 at the same time NOP loses 2. That's the nightmare scenario I was talking about. It got a lot better when the Spurs lost to Minny last night, but still...

[mystargtr34]

If the Spurs lose against GS in the next game, then they are locked in 10th and can't move above NO for home court in the play in. That should mean Pop has an excuse to sit everyone and play the G-League team in the last game against Dallas, ensuring the Spurs get the 9th worst record and don't jump above the Wizards.

[duncan2150]

Spurs resting pretty everybody tonight. It will be pick 9 or 10 ( unless they w vs GS) for the Spurs if they did not make the PO.

[jjspur]

Spurs resting pretty everybody tonight. It will be pick 9 or 10 ( unless they w vs GS) for the Spurs if they did not make the PO.
With Pop resting pretty much everyone, I can see the water boy getting a few minutes at point guard, maybe Becky suits up as well. Obvious tanking ploy by CIA Pop.

[Seventyniner]

Spurs resting pretty everybody tonight. It will be pick 9 or 10 ( unless they w vs GS) for the Spurs if they did not make the PO.

Good. The Spurs have no reason to win either of the next two games and plenty of reasons to lose.

[MannyIsGod]

Your model didn't include any possibility of the Pels losing to both Memphis and GSW? I can see that happening easily. Sure wouldn't want the Spurs to win 2 at the same time NOP loses 2. That's the nightmare scenario I was talking about. It got a lot better when the Spurs lost to Minny last night, but still...

Yeah I somehow missed they were only 2 games above. It'll be a tiny percentage though.

[MannyIsGod]

It's about 2% for spurs to catch the pels. They lose our 26% of the time and we win out 8% so definitely a low percentage situation.

If we win tonight and they lose tonight and Luka is out then be worried, though.

[Ariel]

I'll read this as an implicit message that Pop & the FO actually do give a F about the pick, just not to the point of burning bridges OKC / Portland style... hope it's enough.

[NickiRasgo]

Tanking 2 games won't hurt. Hope they let their ego/pride set aside unless Pop is too greedy to win at least 1 or 2 more just for his record.

[R. DeMurre]

I'll read this as an implicit message that Pop & the FO actually do give a F about the pick, just not to the point of burning bridges OKC / Portland style... hope it's enough.


I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks." Jaylen Hoard plays as a small ball center and goes off for 24 points, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals, and OKC wins. (i.e., Portland wins the tank game plan.) Interesting that Hoard has a game somewhat similar to Thaddeus Young, the guy who couldn't get more minutes with the Spurs because they were going to Eubanks. I'm still confused as to whether Pop was low key tanking by playing Eubanks more, or if he genuinely thought Eubanks was the better player...

[MannyIsGod]

I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks." Jaylen Hoard plays as a small ball center and goes off for 24 points, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals, and OKC wins. (i.e., Portland wins the tank game plan.) Interesting that Hoard has a game somewhat similar to Thaddeus Young, the guy who couldn't get more minutes with the Spurs because they were going to Eubanks. I'm still confused as to whether Pop was low key tanking by playing Eubanks more, or if he genuinely thought Eubanks was the better player...

I've always thought this season was mainly to find out how good young players were. Eubanks playing early didn't surprise me because I thought he actually played better than anyone thought he would last year. I think Pop gave him an opportunity to win the backup slot and he just never delivered. Drew seemed to be playing in his head a lot of the early season. He has the physical tools to be a great rim runner but just doesn't put them together.

[RC_Drunkford]

I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks." Jaylen Hoard plays as a small ball center and goes off for 24 points, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals, and OKC wins. (i.e., Portland wins the tank game plan.) Interesting that Hoard has a game somewhat similar to Thaddeus Young, the guy who couldn't get more minutes with the Spurs because they were going to Eubanks. I'm still confused as to whether Pop was low key tanking by playing Eubanks more, or if he genuinely thought Eubanks was the better player...

He thought Plumlee was better than Bam Adebayo...self explanatory

[ZeusWillJudge]

I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks."


Now that's just funny. If tanking, it's possible to counter 3 G-Leaguers with 1 Drew Eubanks.

[Ariel]

I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks." Jaylen Hoard plays as a small ball center and goes off for 24 points, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals, and OKC wins. (i.e., Portland wins the tank game plan.)
:lol Yeah, they've taken the term "tanking" to new heights... or lows in this case. It's so shameless the league should do something about it.

Interesting that Hoard has a game somewhat similar to Thaddeus Young, the guy who couldn't get more minutes with the Spurs because they were going to Eubanks. I'm still confused as to whether Pop was low key tanking by playing Eubanks more, or if he genuinely thought Eubanks was the better player...
He's walking such a thin line that it's indeed hard to tell whether he's unrelenting stubborn in his desire to win, or a master in deception subtly tanking Probably both. If the Spurs end up in the 9th place and losing the play in, he would have pushed his team to it's potential thus avoiding damaging "the culture" and the value of his assets, while minimizing the costs of doing so (because getting a lower than 9 pick with the current state of affairs would have required very telling measures). Some of the latest moves (resting players today, the closing lineup vs Minnesota the final seconds, etc.) point towards the latter. Of course one game going right (wrong?) and it all goes to hell, since you make the playoffs and drop 6 spots and all talk is moot.

[exstatic]

I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks." Jaylen Hoard plays as a small ball center and goes off for 24 points, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals, and OKC wins. (i.e., Portland wins the tank game plan.) Interesting that Hoard has a game somewhat similar to Thaddeus Young, the guy who couldn't get more minutes with the Spurs because they were going to Eubanks. I'm still confused as to whether Pop was low key tanking by playing Eubanks more, or if he genuinely thought Eubanks was the better player...

The plan was always to flip Thad for assets, and if he gets injured, we get zilch.

[Mr. Body]

Wasn't it established Thad Young had a games played bonus that they weren't trying to hit? It would have been harder to trade him if he was more expensive.

[Ariel]

Picks watch after tonight's games:
https://i.ibb.co/tCjWSJG/picks.png
In short:
* The Spurs' own pick is almost certainly coming at 9 (pre-lottery)
* Toronto's will be at 20-22 with a likely triple tie with Denver and Utah
* Boston's will be at 23-26 with 23 being the most likely scenario and 24 the next.
Now all we have to do is NOT make the playoffs, and hopefully get lucky in the lottery

[Mr. Body]

Dallas needs the game tomorrow night in case the Warriors beat New Orleans, I believe.

[rascal]

Spurs need to lose their next game and get lucky in the lottery and if things work out just right can get Ivey.

[Seventyniner]

Dallas needs the game tomorrow night in case the Warriors beat New Orleans, I believe.

The games happen at the same time so Dallas won't be able to know the result of the other game in advance.

[Mr. Body]

For all their shameless losing, I believe Portland only gained two spots in the last couple weeks. For striving for the play-in, the Spurs only slipped two spots in the same time.

[spurs1990]

Portland will get a cross between Sam Bowie and Brandon Roy as appreciation for so unabashedly punting on winning halfway through a season

[ZeusWillJudge]

For all their shameless losing, I believe Portland only gained two spots in the last couple weeks. For striving for the play-in, the Spurs only slipped two spots in the same time.


I trust you on Portland moving up "just" two spots. But those two spots are the difference between a 37% chance to move up, and a 26% chance to move up. I know a lot of people still insist that's not a big deal... but it's a big deal. Not only that, but they now have only a 4% chance of drafting worse than 8th. Two spots lower, and they would have had a 39% chance of picking worse than 8th. That's also a big deal if someone you really want gets picked 8th.

This was a big loss for the Spurs tonight. I wish they had stayed up at 7, but I'm over that. The way some of the other teams tanked, the Spurs would have had to lose 5 more games, at least, to finish as low as 7th lottery seed. But I still hope they lock up solo 9th tomorrow night, instead of in a tie.

But I would really like to see them in solo 9th after tomorrow night.

I know I called for the Spurs to play young roster players to not win those three last minute games. But when I first talked about the Spurs tanking, I said maybe 40-42. Before the play-in, that would almost always put you out of the playoffs and into the lottery. I think the play-in has made things worse instead of better.

The tanking has gotten so out of hand, I think the league is going to have to put some additional measures in place. Maybe if a team calls up g-league players in the last 10 games, force them to pay half a year's min contract and/or slap some cap hold on the team for those guys the next year, at least until they fill their roster. There needs to at least be some downside, even if it's just financial.

[FutureMan]

Portland really played their cards right IMO. They freed up cap space and put themselves in a position to get a top 4 pick.

They could go into next year with a big three of Lillard, Lavine, & Banchero/Holmgren/Smith. Plus having a 2nd lottery pick. Crazy.

In the same thought the Pelicans look good too with the Lakers pick and if Williamson comes back they could be looking at a starting 5 of Ivey, McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, & Valanciunes plus a bench of Nance Jr and Graham.

Spurs may not have to tank next year. They’ll just be one of the worst teams on their own if the ping pong balls fall this way.

[Sugus]

They could go into next year with a big three of Lillard, Lavine, & Banchero/Holmgren/Smith. Plus having a 2nd lottery pick. Crazy.

Yeah, crazy delusional... :lmao Lavine? What? :lol

[MannyIsGod]

Portland really played their cards right IMO. They freed up cap space and put themselves in a position to get a top 4 pick.

They could go into next year with a big three of Lillard, Lavine, & Banchero/Holmgren/Smith. Plus having a 2nd lottery pick. Crazy.

In the same thought the Pelicans look good too with the Lakers pick and if Williamson comes back they could be looking at a starting 5 of Ivey, McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, & Valanciunes plus a bench of Nance Jr and Graham.

Spurs may not have to tank next year. They’ll just be one of the worst teams on their own if the ping pong balls fall this way.

The Spurs could run this exact same team back next year and they would improve their record from this year. With cap space and picks it's hard to envision them being worse than this year, quite frankly.

[PhantomDashCam]

May be an omen of things to come…

We’re picking 2 in this mock, based on moving up from 9 in a Tankathon sim.


https://youtu.be/ovdR1O37dV4

[KingKev]

Wasn't it established Thad Young had a games played bonus that they weren't trying to hit? It would have been harder to trade him if he was more expensive.

That bonus was like 150k. Hardly relevant.

[CGD]

Only thing left that’s relevant to our picks is whether BOS ends in the 4th or 3rd seed. PHI and BOS tied record wise right now, though, it looks like BOS owns the tie breaker giving them 3rd seed for now.

In their last games, BOS has MEM, while PHI has DET. Pulling for MEM/DET tonight.

[exstatic]

Portland really played their cards right IMO. They freed up cap space and put themselves in a position to get a top 4 pick.

They could go into next year with a big three of Lillard, Lavine, & Banchero/Holmgren/Smith. Plus having a 2nd lottery pick. Crazy.

In the same thought the Pelicans look good too with the Lakers pick and if Williamson comes back they could be looking at a starting 5 of Ivey, McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, & Valanciunes plus a bench of Nance Jr and Graham.

Spurs may not have to tank next year. They’ll just be one of the worst teams on their own if the ping pong balls fall this way.

They could also lose one of those picks if NO jumps into the top4, or even get pushed back if several teams behind them jump in.

The bottom line is, we don’t know what their situation is, or will be, but they’re The Guests, so they’ll probably find a way to fuck it up.

[BatManu20]

Only thing left that’s relevant to our picks is whether BOS ends in the 4th or 3rd seed. PHI and BOS tied record wise right now, though, it looks like BOS owns the tie breaker giving them 3rd seed for now.

In their last games, BOS has MEM, while PHI has DET. Pulling for MEM/DET tonight.

Not true. We need Denver and Utah to both win their games tonight and hope that TOR somehow loses to the Knicks. That would push the Raptors pick from 22 back up to 20, which is a big deal. Denver hosts the lakers and Utah plays @ Portland.

[CGD]

Not true. We need Denver and Utah to both win their games tonight and hope that TOR somehow loses to the Knicks. That would push the Raptors pick from 22 back up to 20, which is a big deal. Denver hosts the lakers and Utah plays @ Portland.

Thanks right, forgot to combine the conferences of course. Go Knicks, lol

[exstatic]

Not true. We need Denver and Utah to both win their games tonight and hope that TOR somehow loses to the Knicks. That would push the Raptors pick from 22 back up to 20, which is a big deal. Denver hosts the lakers and Utah plays @ Portland.

That’s actually not far fetched. Denver and Utah both want to win, and Toronto doesn’t own the pick, and can’t move up or down, they’ll probably rest guys.

[Big Empty]

Wright is going to trade Johnson and our 10th & 22nd pick to move up & draft Jabari Smith

[duncan2150]

Milwaukee resting everybody for tonight's game.

[Ariel]

Picks update, assuming Wizards lose (down 14 with 4' to go)
https://i.ibb.co/xmJ7qx7/picks.png

[duncan2150]

Raptors sitting Siakam and FVV tonight but bucks lose.

Taylor Jenkins said he's expecting to start De'Anthony Melton, Ziaire Williams, John Konchar, Kyle Anderson and Xavier Tillman for Sunday's regular-season finale vs. Boston.
So Boston with the win, at least a tie with the bucks. We'll see what Philly will do without Harden and Embiid vs Detroit less a lot of players too.

[Ariel]

Memphis resting everybody, easy Boston win, dammit.
Looks like a 3-way tie is likely both on the Toronto pick (with Utah & Denver, 1/3 chance at each 20-22 slot) and the Boston pick (with Milwaukee & Philly, 1/3 chance at each 23-25 slot).

[objective]

The only way to stop tanking is to make the lottery chances of getting a top 4 pick a privilege and not a right

2 steps:

1. Adopt the same rules as there are for applying for an injured player exception. For that situation teams apply and have to submit medical records to prove the player is unlikely to return that season. The bulls were rejected for Patrick Williams and sure enough he's playing again.

To qualify for the lottery, teams need to submit medical reports and justify not playing guys for long stretches that aren't on minimum deals. That will cut a lot of the crap.

The non-qualified teams start at 5 and to down from there.

2. There should as a second step to qualify for the lottery be a committee after the medicals to certify that a team made efforts in good faith to compete and not tarnish the reputation of the league. This committee should be a mix of crotchety old players, coaches, and media.

The point of the committee is to cut out the crap that OKC pulls when they sit Poku. It's one thing to sit over 30 veterans like Horford last year when the excuse is to give the young players time to develop. But when OKC decides to not play their young developing players, that's going too far and they should be penalized.

At the committee level a team could plead it's case about medicals etc. For instance, Portland might be able to justify to a committee not bringing back Lillard, with his much poorer play this season and the Olympic work load and his age... But they could never justify sitting Nurkic who was kicking ass and they were winning games until he suddenly had plantar fascia that didn't seem to bother him at all

[TD 21]

^ Either that or start rigging it for teams like the Spurs, are who owed anyway for what they allowed to happen to them and who have done what the league wants teams in their position to do for multiple years and stop rigging it for league pets like the Raptors, who shamelessly tanked and complained about their predicament last season only to be rewarded.

[The Truth #6]

A hardcore move would be to make every team in the lottery but obviously would work against us now. The committee idea would be interesting.

[scott]

If you’re gonna have a committee and introduce a level of subjectivity, just have them flat out select the lotto order based on what lotto teams made a good faith effort to compete. Ties go to the team with the worse record

[Ariel]

I agree that the tanking is out of control, and checking on the medical records for top lottery teams would sound feasible. A tanking committee is a can of worms waiting to happen IMO.

[RC_Drunkford]

I would love for the NBA to do the Spurs a solid for not tanking and have them jump into the top 4, but it will probably be Portland cause it's more exciting for the fans to pair a Top 4 pick with Dame

[Ditty]

The Knicks came through ! They finally did something right for once.

[Mr. Body]

Obi Toppin has looked really freaking good at the end of the season.

[CGD]

I agree that the tanking is out of control, and checking on the medical records for top lottery teams would sound feasible. A tanking committee is a can of worms waiting to happen IMO.

It’s still bad, but the basically equals odds at slots 1-4 is an improvement from past years.

The other way to tackle it is to figure out a way to incentivize getting into the play-in game even more. The gate money helps, but perhaps they can slightly improve the odds of a better draft position if you earn the 9/10th seed. I guess I wouldn’t want that legit injured team that limps in at the end to get a slightly better chance at a windfall, but how common would that be? The could also reward a 10th or 9th seed monetarily if they upset a 7/8 seed.

[exstatic]

Memphis resting everybody, easy Boston win, dammit.
Looks like a 3-way tie is likely both on the Toronto pick (with Utah & Denver, 1/3 chance at each 20-22 slot) and the Boston pick (with Milwaukee & Philly, 1/3 chance at each 23-25 slot).

3 way tie on draft picks is decided by coin flips. ALL ties on draft picks are decided by coin flips.

[Ariel]

I think there would be a different solution to the persistent tanking: add a penalization coefficient based past on draft slots in a given window, say giving an exponentially determined weight to the past 5 drafts that detracts from lottery odds. That way, if a team resorts to this strategy on a recurrent basis, they see their chances of a high pick severely diminished, and thus reduces the incentive to do so.

[talkspurs]

I think there would be a different solution to the persistent tanking: add a penalization coefficient based past on draft slots in a given window, say giving an exponentially determined weight to the past 5 drafts that detracts from lottery odds. That way, if a team resorts to this strategy on a recurrent basis, they see their chances of a high pick severely diminished, and thus reduces the incentive to do so.

That I could see being interesting.

something along the lines of If you got the fifth pick in either of the last to year you get 1 win added to your total for this year for each year you had a top 5 pick.
4 would be 2 wins per year.
3 would be 3 wins per year.
2 would be 4 wins
1 would be 5 years.

for year 3 you could cut those each in half. yes that would leave some with half wins but that would be fine and also help separate between ties.

[Seventyniner]

I think there would be a different solution to the persistent tanking: add a penalization coefficient based past on draft slots in a given window, say giving an exponentially determined weight to the past 5 drafts that detracts from lottery odds. That way, if a team resorts to this strategy on a recurrent basis, they see their chances of a high pick severely diminished, and thus reduces the incentive to do so.

I like this. Make disincentives to tank objective rather than subjective.

The one that will probably gain the most traction imo is to flatten the lottery again. Given every team equal odds and there will be no reason to tank, at least once you're assured of not making the playoffs.

[Ariel]

3 way tie on draft picks is decided by coin flips. ALL ties on draft picks are decided by coin flips.
I don't follow. Are you claiming that n teams tied don't have 1/n chances on each of the n possible picks? Explain.

[objective]

That I could see being interesting.

something along the lines of If you got the fifth pick in either of the last to year you get 1 win added to your total for this year for each year you had a top 5 pick.
4 would be 2 wins per year.
3 would be 3 wins per year.
2 would be 4 wins
1 would be 5 years.

for year 3 you could cut those each in half. yes that would leave some with half wins but that would be fine and also help separate between ties.

I prefer a simple points based limiting system.

#1 pick = 4 points
#2 = 3 points
#3 = 2 points
#4 = 1 point

No team can have more than 5/6 points in a 2 year span, and no team can have more than 7/8 points in a 3 year span

It wouldn't stop tanking as much as crap teams would still tank their ass off, for instance it wouldn't have affected OKC or Indiana or Portland at all. But it would be a hard ceiling, so in 5 points in 2 years system neither Detroit or Houston would be eligible for the #1 pick, though they'd still tank anyway to get the best they'd be eligible for.

So it's less of a deincentiviser and more of a punishment.

[Ariel]

So it's less of a deincentiviser and more of a punishment.
That's a matter of semantics, negative incentives and punishments are conceptually the same thing. The point is, recent high picks should negatively affect the picking order. How does happen is a matter of implementation (time window, penalization coefficient, etc) and subject to debate, but its necessity we can agree on.

[exstatic]

I don't follow. Are you claiming that n teams tied don't have 1/n chances on each of the n possible picks? Explain.

My bad. Non lottery ties need to be broken. Lottery ties have their odds combined and split. If there is an uneven number, random draw determines which team gets the extra chance.

[Ariel]

My bad. Non lottery ties need to be broken. Lottery ties have their odds combined and split. If there is an uneven number, random draw determines which team gets the extra chance.
For the top 4 yes, but other than that lottery tie-breakers would work much in the same way as in non-lottery spots. Point being, n-way ties have to be resolved by sorting the teams involved, by whatever method provided it warrants each tied team the same chance (be that coin toss or whatever, for practical purposes the results are the same).
By the way, having the lottery odds of tied teams combined and split is mathematically equivalent to sorting and then performing the lottery with the new order.

[Ariel]

So far all results are going to plan...
Spurs losing would ensure 9th place in the lottery.
Denver and Utah winning would ensure Toronto's pick falls at 20 with no tie breaks necessary... I didn't see this one comming, thanks Obi Toppin & Immanuel Quickley!
The Boston pick will be at 23, 24 or 25, with equal chance at each spot.
The Lakers 2nd rounder will be at 38

In summary: provided things don't change, we'd get 9 (subject to lottery) + 20 + 23/24/25 (one of those) + 38

[scott]

This years’s four worst teams, same as last years. Love the point system idea above. But at the same time, no matter what draft picks they get, I have a hard time seeing Det, Hou, Orl, or OKC ever being more than lotto teams. They are just sham franchise forever bottom dwellers

[Uriel]

So far all results are going to plan...
Spurs losing would ensure 9th place in the lottery.
Denver and Utah winning would ensure Toronto's pick falls at 20 with no tie breaks necessary... I didn't see this one comming, thanks Obi Toppin & Immanuel Quickley!
The Boston pick will be at 23, 24 or 25, with equal chance at each spot.
The Lakers 2nd rounder will be at 38

In summary: provided things don't change, we'd get 9 (subject to lottery) + 20 + 23/24/25 (one of those) + 38
When do we find out what the Boston pick will be?

[Kurik]

So far all results are going to plan...
Spurs losing would ensure 9th place in the lottery.
Denver and Utah winning would ensure Toronto's pick falls at 20 with no tie breaks necessary... I didn't see this one comming, thanks Obi Toppin & Immanuel Quickley!
The Boston pick will be at 23, 24 or 25, with equal chance at each spot.
The Lakers 2nd rounder will be at 38

In summary: provided things don't change, we'd get 9 (subject to lottery) + 20 + 23/24/25 (one of those) + 38

Very good news on the Toronto pick, thanks for the updates!

[ZeusWillJudge]

My bad. Non lottery ties need to be broken. Lottery ties have their odds combined and split. If there is an uneven number, random draw determines which team gets the extra chance.


The NBA website shows that the 8, 9, and 10 seeds get the same number of ping pong balls. (45 numbers out of 1,000 or 4.5%) https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer If that's still the way it is, splitting the odds wouldn't change a thing about the odds of getting a Top 4 pick. The coin toss would just determine who gets the better pick in the draft.

That's what the NBA site (linked) says. But it doesn't add up with the chart on Tankathon, so I don't know which to believe. Unless the NBA made changes after they posted that document, Tankathon is wrong.

[The Truth #6]

I think Premier League forces the worst team back to the minor league. Would never happen here but a punishment for habitually being the worst seems like a good idea to consider and debate.

[Ariel]

I think Premier League forces the worst team back to the minor league. Would never happen here but a punishment for habitually being the worst seems like a good idea to consider and debate.
That's impossible with the current structure of the league. You can't relegate a multi billion dollar franchise to a developmental league, the structure of professional basketball in the US is completely different from the structure of soccer in most international countries.

[heyheymymy]

Reaves single handily forced OT in Denver

[heyheymymy]

Reaves out here playing like a possessed crackhead

[The Truth #6]

That's impossible with the current structure of the league. You can't relegate a multi billion dollar franchise to a developmental league, the structure of professional basketball in the US is completely different from the structure of soccer in most international countries.

Right. That’s why I said it would never happen here.

[Ariel]

When do we find out what the Boston pick will be?
Good question, I'm not sure, but the lottery will be held May 17, so before that... haven't read an exact date anywhere.

[exstatic]

The NBA website shows that the 8, 9, and 10 seeds get the same number of ping pong balls. (45 numbers out of 1,000 or 4.5%) https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer If that's still the way it is, splitting the odds wouldn't change a thing about the odds of getting a Top 4 pick. The coin toss would just determine who gets the better pick in the draft.

That's what the NBA site (linked) says. But it doesn't add up with the chart on Tankathon, so I don't know which to believe. Unless the NBA made changes after they posted that document, Tankathon is wrong.

I think that’s probably out of date. At one point,there were lottery ties in that area, when we were like 7 or 8.

[Ariel]

Denver f*cked us up

[exstatic]

Fucking Denver looks like they’re going to lose, and drop into a tie with Toronto. They prolly got spooked by what happened to Doncic, and pulled the plug.

[exstatic]

Denver f*cked us up

It’ll still be a con flip, and we could still get 20.

[Ariel]

The Toronto pick will go to a tie breaker with Denver to decide between 20 and 21

So its: 9 (pre-lottery) + 20/21 + 23/24/25 + 38

[Ariel]

It’ll still be a con flip, and we could still get 20.
Yes, but you cut your chances of that happening by half. Oh well..
It's the whole play in situation that is a game changer.

[Ariel]

Fucking Denver looks like they’re going to lose, and drop into a tie with Toronto. They prolly got spooked by what happened to Doncic, and pulled the plug.
They pulled all their starters before that... No Jokic, no Aaron Gordon, no Barton, no Monte Morris... plus Murray and MPJ that have been out a long time... essentially both teams scrapped the bottom of the barrel and threw on the court whatever was left. It's just that one of those guys went unconscious...

[Spursfanfromafar]

This is on NBA.com as of March 29, 2022. The Spurs have as much chance to get into the top 4 as the team that lands the 8th pick: https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

[ZeusWillJudge]

I think that’s probably out of date. At one point,there were lottery ties in that area, when we were like 7 or 8.


I don't think so ... I just found this: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/08/2020-nba-draft-lottery-odds.html Tankathon's chart shows the lottery odds from 2020. The correct numbers are the ones on the NBA website, and the one from last year at DraftKings. It's pretty clear, the league flattened the odds for 8,9, and 10 two years ago.

LOL. Everyone here (including me) has been referring to Tankathon's chart for months, and it's outdated. It used to be that they got 6%, 4.5%, and 3% respectively. But now they changed it so that all 3 get the same 4.5% chance to move up. So there's really no improved chance to land a Top 4 until you get up to the 7th worst record.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Denver f*cked us up



Closing a game with Bryn Forbes has always been a recipe for a collapse.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't think so ... I just found this: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/08/2020-nba-draft-lottery-odds.html Tankathon's chart shows the lottery odds from 2020. The correct numbers are the ones on the NBA website, and the one from last year at DraftKings. It's pretty clear, the league flattened the odds for 8,9, and 10 two years ago.

LOL. Everyone here (including me) has been referring to Tankathon's chart for months, and it's outdated. It used to be that they got 6%, 4.5%, and 3% respectively. But now they changed it so that all 3 get the same 4.5% chance to move up. So there's really no improved chance to land a Top 4 until you get up to the 7th worst record.

Are you fucking kidding me.

[Russ]

I don't think so ... I just found this: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/08/2020-nba-draft-lottery-odds.html Tankathon's chart shows the lottery odds from 2020. The correct numbers are the ones on the NBA website, and the one from last year at DraftKings. It's pretty clear, the league flattened the odds for 8,9, and 10 two years ago.

LOL. Everyone here (including me) has been referring to Tankathon's chart for months, and it's outdated. It used to be that they got 6%, 4.5%, and 3% respectively. But now they changed it so that all 3 get the same 4.5% chance to move up. So there's really no improved chance to land a Top 4 until you get up to the 7th worst record.

No wonder Pop never seemed as concerned about the intricacies of tanking as everyone here.

PATFO probably knew the true odds.

Tankathon should be forever banned from using "tank" in its name again.

[rankingtear]

No nba.com is just copy paste of last year's odds with ties. Tankathon is accurate

[MannyIsGod]

I think tankathon is right.

[MannyIsGod]

No nba.com is just copy paste of last year's odds with ties. Tankathon is accurate

This is what the issue is. The odds are off because of the ties last year.

[JPB]

Not sure I'm gonna freak out cos spurs could go from 20 to 21, tbh.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Aah. I got it. There is no coin flip to determine the draft order within the lottery. The teams with the same record split the odds if they are tied. In the 2021 draft, the 8th, 9th and 10th ranked teams had the same record and so their draft odds were 4.5% each to get the 1st pick instead of 6, 4.5 and 3% respectively. The 2022 standings are similar to 2020's.. no ties within the lottery at the 8th, 9th and 10th spots. And so the Spurs will get a 4.5% chance of getting the 1st pick. Tldr, Tankathon is right.

[CGD]

Not sure I'm gonna freak out cos spurs could go from 20 to 21, tbh.

Exactly. Same for 23 or 24.

Bottom line is they’re both meh selections, so it comes down to the quality of a teams draft scouting. Thankfully spurs have a good track record there.

[Dex]

Exactly. Same for 23 or 24.

Bottom line is they’re both meh selections, so it comes down to the quality of a teams draft scouting. Thankfully spurs have a good track record there.

Yep, we've done more with less. Spurs managed to find talent picking from 25-30 for like two decades, a 21 pick probably looks golden to them at this point.

Hell, we have a 41 pick (Tre Jones) getting regular rotation minutes and actually playing well...dude just needs to develop a jump shot and he will be a legit player.

[KingKev]

We’ve done considerably better late first round DJ, White and Keldon than we have ~10-20 with Walker, Samanic, Vassell and Primo.

Would be nice ti actually draft an immediate impact player for once.

[Degoat]

I’m low key worried we’re gonna make the playoffs and not get a lottery pick lol last year the playin was with the grizzlies and the warriors lol imo there was no chance but this time the pelicans and clippers, those are very winnable games

[exstatic]

We’ve done considerably better late first round DJ, White and Keldon than we have ~10-20 with Walker, Samanic, Vassell and Primo.

Would be nice ti actually draft an immediate impact player for once.

Yeah, that's not going to happen. If you want high ceiling, you're going to have to wait. Any player ready to play is top 2-3 picks or at their ceiling already.

[KingKev]

Yeah, that's not going to happen. If you want high ceiling, you're going to have to wait. Any player ready to play is top 2-3 picks or at their ceiling already.

Yeah wishful thinking I know. It’s too hard to speculate at this point what they do come draft day. I have no strong opinion I’d just like to go into next season feeling like we upgraded the roster and not banking on Primo and Vassell taking major leaps.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Aah. I got it. There is no coin flip to determine the draft order within the lottery. The teams with the same record split the odds if they are tied. In the 2021 draft, the 8th, 9th and 10th ranked teams had the same record and so their draft odds were 4.5% each to get the 1st pick instead of 6, 4.5 and 3% respectively. The 2022 standings are similar to 2020's.. no ties within the lottery at the 8th, 9th and 10th spots. And so the Spurs will get a 4.5% chance of getting the 1st pick. Tldr, Tankathon is right.


That's not right, either. The coin toss is specifically to determine the draft order. Think about it - they have to somehow determine which team picks first, don't they? That's what the coin toss is for. But the lottery chance to move up to a Top 4 pick works like this:

1. If two teams are tied, they split the odds.
2. If there is an odd number, the winner of the coin toss gets the extra AND the better draft position.

No matter what, the coin toss determines the draft position (unless one team gets picked for the lottery). But the coin toss winner ALSO gets an extra ping pong ball if they can't be split evenly.

[rascal]

Yep, we've done more with less. Spurs managed to find talent picking from 25-30 for like two decades, a 21 pick probably looks golden to them at this point.

Hell, we have a 41 pick (Tre Jones) getting regular rotation minutes and actually playing well...dude just needs to develop a jump shot and he will be a legit player.

It's better to get into the lottery at a chance for a more sure chance at a future star level player. Spurs have also ended up with busts picking in the 20's.

[ZeusWillJudge]

This is what the issue is. The odds are off because of the ties last year.


I get what you're saying, and it may be right. But then Tankathon's chart is STILL wrong. It currently shows Atlanta and Charlotte tied. That means that their odds will be split. But the chart shows a .8% chance for Atlanta, and a .7% chance for Charlotte. That represents 80/1000 numbers and 70/1000 numbers, respectively. So just for starters, it should show both having a .75% chance at the lottery.

[exstatic]

I get what you're saying, and it may be right. But then Tankathon's chart is STILL wrong. It currently shows Atlanta and Charlotte tied. That means that their odds will be split. But the chart shows a .8% chance for Atlanta, and a .7% chance for Charlotte. That represents 80/1000 numbers and 70/1000 numbers, respectively. So just for starters, it should show both having a .75% chance at the lottery.

Clippers could get knocked out in the play in,and become #14, bumping up both CHA and ATL. We really won’t know anything until the play in is over, which is why no one is updating anything right now.

[Dex]

It's better to get into the lottery at a chance for a more sure chance at a future star level player. Spurs have also ended up with busts picking in the 20's.

True, obviously that top 10 pick is going to be far more valuable especially if we can move up.

Just saying, have 3 firsts this year could be big, whether we end up using them or packaging them for something. Gives the FO a ton of flexibility.

Bright Wright definitely doesn't have the best track record so far, but they got this one mostly right. Now lets see if they can take advantage.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Clippers could get knocked out in the play in,and become #14, bumping up both CHA and ATL. We really won’t know anything until the play in is over, which is why no one is updating anything right now.


LOL. I thought about that, too. But remember, Tankathon's chart is for the LOTTERY, not draft order. All they have to do is split the odds, and they haven't done that at any point in the year.

Also, last year there really were 3 teams tied at 8,9, and 10. But there were also 2 teams tied at 11, and the charts don't reflect anything about that. None of it matters now that everything is final, but it's nice to understand. I'm starting to think that nobody understands it very well.

If I were the NBA, I would show a generic chart with the odds for each SLOT, and then explain the tiebreaker procedures. I think that's what they did.

[Uriel]

So we'll have coin flips for both the Toronto and Boston picks.

25% chance we win both coin flips.

25% chance we lose both coin flips.

50% chance we win one but lose the other.

[Ariel]

So we'll have coin flips for both the Toronto and Boston picks.

25% chance we win both coin flips.

25% chance we lose both coin flips.

50% chance we win one but lose the other.
Actually the Boston pick is a 3-way tie, so it's 33,3% each.
Basically the scenario would be:
* 1/6 we get 20 & 23
* 1/6 we get 20 & 24
* 1/6 we get 20 & 25
* 1/6 we get 21 & 23
* 1/6 we get 21 & 24
* 1/6 we get 21 & 25

[Ariel]

LOL. I thought about that, too. But remember, Tankathon's chart is for the LOTTERY, not draft order. All they have to do is split the odds, and they haven't done that at any point in the year.

Also, last year there really were 3 teams tied at 8,9, and 10. But there were also 2 teams tied at 11, and the charts don't reflect anything about that. None of it matters now that everything is final, but it's nice to understand. I'm starting to think that nobody understands it very well.

If I were the NBA, I would show a generic chart with the odds for each SLOT, and then explain the tiebreaker procedures. I think that's what they did.
I think the Tankathon chart is the one you suggest the NBA would publish (which I agree), and eventhough they say it includes ties, it doesn't. I believe they were using a tie-breaker similar to the one used for playoff seeding (which does not apply, I know). But we are trying to make sense of inconsistent and/or outdated information, so we'll just have to wait.

Edit: I looked at the Tankathon chart again and the "Base odds" chart below, and I know what happened: the ties between 13 & 14 ARE included, but since they cannot be split evenly, they have to decide on a tie-breaker. Since that hasn't happened, they ARBITRARILY assigned Atlanta the 13th place & Charlotte the 14th place. That is not accurate. But the chart IS.

[BatManu20]

Damn Denver really potentially fucked us last night with that embarrassing G-League collapse :lol

[BatManu20]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that bad in theory but there’s a drop-off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck dropping from 20 to 21.

But whatever. Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so I digress.

[duncan2150]

True, obviously that top 10 pick is going to be far more valuable especially if we can move up.

Just saying, have 3 firsts this year could be big, whether we end up using them or packaging them for something. Gives the FO a ton of flexibility.

Bright Wright definitely doesn't have the best track record so far, but they got this one mostly right. Now lets see if they can take advantage.

We could also package our 38 pick with one pick to move up. A lot of possibilities and i think a lot will depend on who is available when the spurs pick.

And for the coin flip, i can't find a date but according to Josh Paredes it will be on the next few days.

https://twitter.com/Josh810/status/1513383055662141440

[Ariel]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that m bad in theory but there’s a drop off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck. But Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so whatever.
I think it WOULD matter losing the 20/21 tie-breaker, considering it's Denver who would be picking ahead, and they have an excellent track record of finding value late (Jokic, MPJ, RJ Hampton, Bones Hyland, Monte Morris, etc). I wouldn't feel comfortable having them snatch Jovic in front of our noses, for instance. But events like that happen all the time, so you have to live with it. Falling outside the lottery for the privilege of getting swept by the Suns would be deadly, however.

[exstatic]

We could also package our 38 pick with one pick to move up. A lot of possibilities and i think a lot will depend on who is available when the spurs pick.

And for the coin flip, i can't find a date but according to Josh Paredes it will be on the next few days.

https://twitter.com/Josh810/status/1513383055662141440

I think they will wait until after the play in.

[JPB]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that bad in theory but there’s a drop-off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck dropping from 20 to 21.

But whatever. Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so I digress.

No offense but there would magically be a big drop off... just after the #20.

Would be curious to know the 20 studs that dominate the draft so much that the 21th pick would be such a big drop off... no to mention that ask 30 teams and they'd all pick differently in the top 20.

[Kurik]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that bad in theory but there’s a drop-off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck dropping from 20 to 21.

But whatever. Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so I digress.

This is a giant assumption that all the teams drafting in the top 20 have the same top 20.

[KingKev]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that bad in theory but there’s a drop-off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck dropping from 20 to 21.

But whatever. Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so I digress.

Sounds like you have this down to a science.

[rascal]

No offense but there would magically be a big drop off... just after the #20.

Would be curious to know the 20 studs that dominate the draft so much that the 21th pick would be such a big drop off... no to mention that ask 30 teams and they'd all pick differently in the top 20.

Still always better to get the higher pick as there can be a chance that the player you want may get picked right before your pick.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I think the Tankathon chart is the one you suggest the NBA would publish (which I agree), and eventhough they say it includes ties, it doesn't. I believe they were using a tie-breaker similar to the one used for playoff seeding (which does not apply, I know). But we are trying to make sense of inconsistent and/or outdated information, so we'll just have to wait.

Edit: I looked at the Tankathon chart again and the "Base odds" chart below, and I know what happened: the ties between 13 & 14 ARE included, but since they cannot be split evenly, they have to decide on a tie-breaker. Since that hasn't happened, they ARBITRARILY assigned Atlanta the 13th place & Charlotte the 14th place. That is not accurate. But the chart IS.


I'd like to know for sure, but that's as good a theory as any.

What I really hope is that this offseason makes the Spurs so good that we don't have to worry about it for a long time.

[Jsmythe]

I get what you're saying, and it may be right. But then Tankathon's chart is STILL wrong. It currently shows Atlanta and Charlotte tied. That means that their odds will be split. But the chart shows a .8% chance for Atlanta, and a .7% chance for Charlotte. That represents 80/1000 numbers and 70/1000 numbers, respectively. So just for starters, it should show both having a .75% chance at the lottery.

No Tankathon is correct. Your math was off: 0.8% chance and 0.7% chance represent 8/1000 and 7/1000 numbers, not 80 and 70. As someone else explained, if there are an odd number of ping pong balls, the coin flip winner gets the better pick and 1 extra ping pong ball, which is worth 0.1% chance.

[ZeusWillJudge]

No Tankathon is correct. Your math was off: 0.8% chance and 0.7% chance represent 8/1000 and 7/1000 numbers, not 80 and 70. As someone else explained, if there are an odd number of ping pong balls, the coin flip winner gets the better pick and 1 extra ping pong ball, which is worth 0.1% chance.


Well, you're right. If Tankathon is correct, then the NBA botched their own "How the lottery works" article by giving last year's results instead of showing the general blueprint? What a mess.

Like I said before, I just hope it's not a factor for the Spurs again for a long time.

[Ariel]

Apparently the tiebreakers will be next monday (couldn't find an official source, though I looked at NBA communications):

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/nba-draft-2022-five-prospects-warriors-target-no-28

The tiebreaker between the Warriors and Heat will be determined on April 18 in a draw by the NBA.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/04/checking-in-on-nbas-2022-lottery-standings-projected-draft-order.html

These tiebreakers will be conducted by the NBA next Monday (April 18)
https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/checking_in_on_nbas_2022_lottery_standings_project ed_draft_order/s1_14822_37391991

These tiebreakers will be conducted next Monday (April 18)

That would determine where the Toronto pick (20/21) and Boston pick (23/24/25) land.

[rascal]

If the Spurs get into the top 4 they should pick Shaedon Sharpe. He has superstar potential and will be the best of this draft in the end.

[Degoat]

If the Spurs get into the top 4 they should pick Shaedon Sharpe. He has superstar potential and will be the best of this draft in the end.

I do wish the spurs could some how get him, idk about top 4 but he will be special

[TDMVPDPOY]

I do wish the spurs could some how get him, idk about top 4 but he will be special

no point drafting a alpha scorer if pop puts him end of the bench/gleague, or no green light to chuck

[rascal]

no point drafting a alpha scorer if pop puts him end of the bench/gleague, or no green light to chuck

A go to alpha scorer is exactly what the Spurs need. They didn't have any go to player against NO in their last game. It'll take Sharpe two or three years to reach his potential but the Spurs should be on a three year plan anyways.

[RC_Drunkford]

The Spurs already have a top 5 pick in this draft. His name is Joshua Primo

[KingKev]

The Spurs already have a top 25 pick in this draft. His name is Joshua Primo

lol fixed

[DAF86]

So, I'm starting to dig into the prospects (focusing mainly of the PFs). This Jeremy Sochan guy seems interesting. Only 18 years old, great defender, moves well without the ball and seems to have a high IQ. His metrics are off the chart too.

8xVspNOqHW0

His shooting numbers aren't good but he displays a good form.

[rascal]

Sochan doesn't look like anything special, lacks explosiveness, fits right in with what the Spurs already have, doesn't add a badly needed top scoring option to the team.

At 9 don't draft by position but take the best prospect with the highest upside. Better options at 9 than Sochan.

Here's a list so one of these guys will be available when the spurs are on the board.

1.J Smith
2. Holgrem
3.Banchero
4.Ivey
5.Griffin
6.Mathurin
7.Murray
8.Sharpe - likely to declare
9. Spurs- Duren, J Davis, Agbaji

I wouldn't take Sochan over any of these guys.

[R. DeMurre]

Watching a bunch of Wake Forest's Jake LaRavia in the last few days, I'm definitely getting a Franz Wagner vibe-- even their physical profiles are similar, with Laravia listed at 6'9", 228 and Wagner at 6'9", 220. Laravia was the leader in impact stats on a team that went 25-10, and kind of does everything well but nothing at an ultra elite level. in his match ups with Paolo Banchero, he held him far below his typical FG%s. I think he could be a second round steal.

Here are some write ups on him:
https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/lets-rave-about-jake-laravia?s=r
https://www.si.com/college/2022/03/10/college-basketball-best-players-2022-ranking