Run for Play-In

[spurs10]

Have you SEEN this roster? We spent half the year playing Drew Eubanks and Bryn fucking Forbes

Yet, still somehow as good as a team with LeBron, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook.

But I'm sure Tim Duncan carried them there, too. :rolleyes

We ain't winning a championship or anything and are lucky to even be in the playoff conversation, but give credit where it's due, dude Now you must remember Pop said mean things about the race-baiting Don of Mar-a-Lardo, so he just can't the most winning NBA coach in history. He just can't be!! :)

[BacktoBasics]

The QO and the cap hold are not the same. Until his situation is resolved, he will count $13.3M against our cap. That would be worth pulling the offer if something like Lavine came up as available, or someone dropped onto the trade market, as we wouldn't have MAX room to offer.
Thanks for that clarification. That is a bigger cap hold than I thought.

[exstatic]

Since Lonnie 2.0 emerged on February 12th he's averaging almost 19 points a game and yet his plus minus over that time still sits at -3.5. The man dropped a 30 bomb and his plus minus that game sat at zero.

Lonnie 2.0 has had 8 games of 20+ points and his plus minus was positive in only 2 games and one of those games was a +1.

My point being that despite his scoring surge its still very debatable if he actually helps that team overall.

All that said if he continues to score they almost have to keep him. If can become just a mediocre defender he's a Lou Williams, Jamal Crawford, Jason Terry bench scorer.

A bucket getter like that is a luxury unless you're a contender. It's just a bad idea to put Lonnie into a game where you're behind. Best case is that you hold on to the existing deficit. You're not going to close the gap at all in most cases, because he's a net negative player.

[Leetonidas]

Have you SEEN this roster? We spent half the year playing Drew Eubanks and Bryn fucking Forbes

Yet, still somehow as good as a team with LeBron, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook.

But I'm sure Tim Duncan carried them there, too. :rolleyes

We ain't winning a championship or anything and are lucky to even be in the playoff conversation, but give credit where it's due, dude

That's moreso a testament to how shitty the Lakers are than anything else :lol

[MannyIsGod]

This net negative argument is so stupid and shallow. Yes, if you play Lonnie with 4 replacement level players or below, he's not going to have good advanced metrics. I don't believe anyone is saying that Lonnie is capable of carrying bad players and making them good. But this is the same nonsense we heard for years with Derozan. Now, we see with the Bulls that when you put him in a situation with a big who can score and guards who can defend, Derozan is pretty fucking good. You guys look at stats and try to think of them as the end all be all without thinking about the context they come in. Lonnie has shown growth in his ability to be a high level scorer. That skillset is VALUABLE. Lonnie is likely never going to be an MVP level player, and that is OK. He's probably never going to be the kind of player that makes others around him better, thats OK. He's probably never going to make an all defensive team. So what? What he has shown, is the ability to do the most valuable thing in the NBA game: Score. This is enough to be an asset. We all wish Lonnie was an elite player, but he's likely never going to be that. So what?

There have been a lot of "net negative" players who have been valuable parts of championship teams because they played a role and fit into the team.

[MannyIsGod]

Remaining games and win percentages per RAPTOR for each one.

Spurs

Portland - 97%
Portland - 95%
@ Denver 19%
@ Minnesota 20%
Golden State 42%
@ Dallas 20%

Lakers

@Utah 15%
NOLA 48%
Denver 54%
@ Suns 15%
@ Golden State 22%
OKC 87%
@ Denver 16%


Spurs floor on wins should be 33. RAPTOR believes out of the other 4, we will win 1 game. The percentages for that are good for 1 more win, but also Spurs could easily lose all 4.

Lakers floor is likely 32 wins. That OKC win looks solid, but otherwise, they could easily lose every single game other than that. Raptor believes they will win 3 more games, and end up at 34, same as the Spurs.

[slick'81]

Minnesota ,g.st and dallas wont be playing anyone by then

[MannyIsGod]

Minnesota ,g.st and dallas wont be playing anyone by then

We'll see. Maybe the final game, but all 3 have things to play for currently.

[TD 21]

I mean, sure, but Johnson made the USANT team for goodness sake. Technically he wasn't seen playing in the RSG, but he would have done so.

:lol I was joking.



I have these two tied together. I don't think Randle has a lot of value. He's signed to a huge deal and hasn't been very good to go with attitude problems. I don't think Utah wants him as part of a Mitchell deal. Barrett has had a good year, but New York hype makes him seem like a better prospect than he is. In reality, Barrett and Johnson are similar prospects, which Barrett scoring more (until recently) but Keldon being more efficient. Mitchell literally has four more years on his contract after this. Where he prefers to go isn't going to play a bigger role than it did for Deron Williams.

Randle is a healthy pseudo star, in his prime, singed long term. That always has value to non glamour markets not interested in full-scale re-builds.

Agreed that the Jazz would prefer Barrett to him though and that he's similar in many ways to Johnson only with more hype due to the market he plays in. But because of his draft pedigree and the reality that he's ahead of Johnson in terms of being able to create for himself and others, they'd most likely prefer him.

Mitchell's preference obviously won't be the deciding factor, but if the packages are similar, that and getting him out of conference likely win out.



If we're talking about six or seven years down the line, where SA's roster is now is basically irrelevant. They'll have cycled out everyone except maybe Murray by then. I don't see this roster as constructed being one player away unless we're talking about a GOAT candidate joining them.

We're talking within' the next few years and about being a constant playoff (not play-in) contender with flexibility, since that appears to be the goal here.

Johnson, Vassell and Primo all probably stand a good chance to join Murray as long term pieces.



Beal can't force a trade though. He's not extending because he can't make as much money by doing so. If he doesn't extend, he can't be traded.

He could and probably will when eligible (1-2 years) after he receives the max from the Wizards.



I don't see the Cavs as having that kind of leverage. If they want to keep Sexton, they'll just keep him. If they don't, they aren't going to match a max contract offer. We're looking at something which is at best what the Spurs got for DeRozan. I might just max him and use my contracts on other pursuits and just accept it if it gets matched. Moving on and trying to pry Colin away makes more sense to me.

Uh, the Hawks just did so with Collins (who's likely to be traded this off season). It's called asset management.

Maxing Sexton makes no sense. This team remains sub par defensively because of their lack of length and strength, which limits their switch ability and leaves them susceptible to being overpowered (drives, post ups, box outs), shot over and vulnerable on the defensive glass. It's only worth exacerbating that for an offensive superstar/star and he's neither.

[Mr. Body]

Minnesota ,g.st and dallas wont be playing anyone by then

It's true on both sides of the equation.

[slick'81]

It's true on both sides of the equation.

We shall see

[Kevin]

This net negative argument is so stupid and shallow. Yes, if you play Lonnie with 4 replacement level players or below, he's not going to have good advanced metrics. I don't believe anyone is saying that Lonnie is capable of carrying bad players and making them good. But this is the same nonsense we heard for years with Derozan. Now, we see with the Bulls that when you put him in a situation with a big who can score and guards who can defend, Derozan is pretty fucking good. You guys look at stats and try to think of them as the end all be all without thinking about the context they come in. Lonnie has shown growth in his ability to be a high level scorer. That skillset is VALUABLE. Lonnie is likely never going to be an MVP level player, and that is OK. He's probably never going to be the kind of player that makes others around him better, thats OK. He's probably never going to make an all defensive team. So what? What he has shown, is the ability to do the most valuable thing in the NBA game: Score. This is enough to be an asset. We all wish Lonnie was an elite player, but he's likely never going to be that. So what?

There have been a lot of "net negative" players who have been valuable parts of championship teams because they played a role and fit into the team.

Kinda throwing Lonnie's teammates under the bus. Devin Vassel plays with the same teammates as Lonnie and since February 12th his plus minus is over two points better than Lonnie's despite shooting 39% during that time. Lonnie is shooting 46% since February 12th.

Also still worried that this just might be a prolonged shooting hot streak. Lonnie still isn't getting to the line.

[Kevin]

A bucket getter like that is a luxury unless you're a contender. It's just a bad idea to put Lonnie into a game where you're behind. Best case is that you hold on to the existing deficit. You're not going to close the gap at all in most cases, because he's a net negative player.

This is the sunk cost fallacy at play but the Spurs invested four years of a development into Lonnie and cant let him leave now as beings to flourish. As others have said he only walks if another team makes a crazy offer.

Lonnie is risky contract but it almost has to be done unless the Spurs get very luck in the draft and land Ivey.

[exstatic]

This net negative argument is so stupid and shallow. Yes, if you play Lonnie with 4 replacement level players or below, he's not going to have good advanced metrics. I don't believe anyone is saying that Lonnie is capable of carrying bad players and making them good. But this is the same nonsense we heard for years with Derozan. Now, we see with the Bulls that when you put him in a situation with a big who can score and guards who can defend, Derozan is pretty fucking good. You guys look at stats and try to think of them as the end all be all without thinking about the context they come in. Lonnie has shown growth in his ability to be a high level scorer. That skillset is VALUABLE. Lonnie is likely never going to be an MVP level player, and that is OK. He's probably never going to be the kind of player that makes others around him better, thats OK. He's probably never going to make an all defensive team. So what? What he has shown, is the ability to do the most valuable thing in the NBA game: Score. This is enough to be an asset. We all wish Lonnie was an elite player, but he's likely never going to be that. So what?

There have been a lot of "net negative" players who have been valuable parts of championship teams because they played a role and fit into the team.

And now we're seeing DeRozan revert to type, and Chicago plummet. Sows ears and silk purses.

Net negative is a thing, and it's a valid tool to evaluate players. If the other team, in the long term, scores more than your team WHEN YOU ARE IN THE GAME, even though you are scoring at a high rate, THAT'S KIND OF FUCKING IMPORTANT. And it's not just because he's coming off the bench. In 148 games and about 2500 minutes as a reserve, his net Rtg is -16. In 56 games and about 1550 minutes as a starter his net Rtg is -18! He literally drags to hell any unit he plays for.

You're smarter than this, Manny.

[exstatic]

This is the sunk cost fallacy at play but the Spurs invested four years of a development into Lonnie and cant let him leave now as beings to flourish. As others have said he only walks if another team makes a crazy offer.

Lonnie is risky contract but it almost has to be done unless the Spurs get very luck in the draft and land Ivey.

I don't see that. People said that we could NEVER replace DeRozan's scoring, and I said it was possible, in the aggregate. Guess what? We did it, in the aggregate. Our ORtg last year was 111.0. This year it was 112.1. Our ppg last year was 111. This year it was 113, because of the higher pace. That was replacing 21.6 points. Lonnie's 12.1 would be a piece of cake. Keldon, JRich, Devin, and Primo all add 3 ppg. and don't break our fucking defense when they're on the floor. Done.

[Dex]

That's moreso a testament to how shitty the Lakers are than anything else :lol

Fair point :lol

[Robz4000]

Lakers getting both Lebron and Davis back. With that on top of the ridiculous officiating advantage they're gonna get the play-in spot is theirs. Good news imo.

[offset formation]

A bucket getter like that is a luxury unless you're a contender. It's just a bad idea to put Lonnie into a game where you're behind. Best case is that you hold on to the existing deficit. You're not going to close the gap at all in most cases, because he's a net negative player.

He is. Though his aggression and skill clearly has increased over the last several months. You make the QO and see if someone wants to pursue him beyond PATFO's line of spending comfortability. My guess is he is still a Spur next year.

[offset formation]

It's true on both sides of the equation.

LeBron isn't gonna sit unless unhealthy.

[KingKev]

He is. Though his aggression and skill clearly has increased over the last several months. You make the QO and see if someone wants to pursue him beyond PATFO's line of spending comfortability. My guess is he is still a Spur next year.

I agree with this take. We spent a ridiculous amount of dead cap this year. Huthison, Aminu and Thad’s 30mm returned us one mid to late FRP. I’m sure Walker gets his QO if we have nothing bigger lined up.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

L Train is off the tracks.

Time for guerilla warfare.

Where's No Limit Army Commander?

[Mr. Body]

LeBron isn't gonna sit unless unhealthy.

We're talking about the opponents of the Lakers and the Spurs.

[slick'81]

And down goes the lake show again:rollin

[tim_duncan_fan]

Who is LeGM going to pick when the Lakers draft 1st overall?

I don't think LeBron will be into Chet.

[007nites]

Who is LeGM going to pick when the Lakers draft 1st overall?

I don't think LeBron will be into Chet.

They have no picks lol

[ismael-robert]

And down goes the lake show again:rollin

Why so cocky...LeBron n Davis back tomorrow they could win out

[slick'81]

Why so cocky...LeBron n Davis back tomorrow they could win out

fine by me. I dont want anything to do with the playin

[tim_duncan_fan]

They have no picks lol

Bwahahahaha that's amazing!

[XDT76]

Why so cocky...LeBron n Davis back tomorrow they could win out


There is also a possibility that Davis is injured in the next game and out for the rest of the season.

[ismael-robert]

That possibility exist for every player including ours

[Mr. Body]

Why so cocky...LeBron n Davis back tomorrow they could win out

They weren't that good even with Davis.

[spurs10]

It's going to be a tight race with LeBron and AD coming back. They aren't going to win out, but neither are we.

[XDT76]

Actually at this point of time, I think we will just let the team do what they want and we should just support them. Not making the play-in/play-off we get a lottery pick. If they did then it would be good for our younger guys to experience a more physical and more intense competition.

[Spursfanfromafar]

This net negative argument is so stupid and shallow. Yes, if you play Lonnie with 4 replacement level players or below, he's not going to have good advanced metrics. I don't believe anyone is saying that Lonnie is capable of carrying bad players and making them good. But this is the same nonsense we heard for years with Derozan. Now, we see with the Bulls that when you put him in a situation with a big who can score and guards who can defend, Derozan is pretty fucking good. You guys look at stats and try to think of them as the end all be all without thinking about the context they come in. Lonnie has shown growth in his ability to be a high level scorer. That skillset is VALUABLE. Lonnie is likely never going to be an MVP level player, and that is OK. He's probably never going to be the kind of player that makes others around him better, thats OK. He's probably never going to make an all defensive team. So what? What he has shown, is the ability to do the most valuable thing in the NBA game: Score. This is enough to be an asset. We all wish Lonnie was an elite player, but he's likely never going to be that. So what?

There have been a lot of "net negative" players who have been valuable parts of championship teams because they played a role and fit into the team.

The trouble with Lonnie is that while he is capable of scoring and sometimes is as good as a microwave, heating up quickly; he is too damn inconsistent. Every third or fourth game, he scores in spurts and promises much but its what he does in the other two/three games that pulls him down. This is supposed to be his best season since he came in and look at the shooting percentages - 40.7% overall, 31.5% from the 3 and a below par TS% of 51%. Those are pretty poor numbers for someone who is supposedly good at the "one most valuable thing" - scoring. As things stand, Lonnie is more of a journeyman in the league, someone who flatters to deceive - the Jordan Crawford, Austin Rivers type of player.

The Spurs are better off getting another good SG prospect to develop along with Vassell, Primo and Richardson instead of throwing money at Walker. And if the Spurs want a placeholder, shooting guard who can anchor the bench in scoring, they could target Malik Monk for a short contract and turn him into assets later on if required. I think Lonnie's time is up with the Spurs.

[Rocalcio]

And we’re back in ! Thanks to Utah.

[MannyIsGod]

And now we're seeing DeRozan revert to type, and Chicago plummet. Sows ears and silk purses.

Net negative is a thing, and it's a valid tool to evaluate players. If the other team, in the long term, scores more than your team WHEN YOU ARE IN THE GAME, even though you are scoring at a high rate, THAT'S KIND OF FUCKING IMPORTANT. And it's not just because he's coming off the bench. In 148 games and about 2500 minutes as a reserve, his net Rtg is -16. In 56 games and about 1550 minutes as a starter his net Rtg is -18! He literally drags to hell any unit he plays for.

You're smarter than this, Manny.


Did I literally not say:


Now, we see with the Bulls that when you put him in a situation with a big who can score and guards who can defend,


So what do you think has changed so its not working as well for Chicago?

The Chicago lineup of Caruso/Ball/Derozan is +17.8 per 100. Blows everything else they run away. But of course, Caruso was hurt, and Ball is hurt, so they aren't going to reach that anymore.

Its about team construction not about "net negative" without context. Of course looking at the net effect of a player is a valid tool to evaluate players. I never said otherwise. I said the way you are using it is shallow AF. You guys just want to look at any given stat and have it tell you whether a player is able to be successful or not. Its not that simple and simply looking at a number and constantly parroting it is stupid AF and Derozan is just ONE obvious example of that.

[Uriel]

Suppose the return of LeBron and AD is enough to get the Lakers into the play-in. Is there any chance that the Pelicans could fall far enough that we overtake them?

Pelicans @ Lakers today.

[exstatic]

Suppose the return of LeBron and AD is enough to get the Lakers into the play-in. Is there any chance that the Pelicans could fall far enough that we overtake them?

Pelicans @ Lakers today.

The Pelicans only have to fall into a tie, since we own the tie-breaker head to head 3-1. That being said, we're running out of time. Six games left, of which we will destroy Portland twice, but could possibly lose the other 4. There are still a lot of unsettled playoff positions

[duncan2150]

Suppose the return of LeBron and AD is enough to get the Lakers into the play-in. Is there any chance that the Pelicans could fall far enough that we overtake them?

Pelicans @ Lakers today.

It's possible if they lose tonight imo, if they win it will be very unlikely. Their schedule after tonight is Portland, Sacramento, GS, Clippers. They could win at least 2-3 games.

[itzsoweezee]

LeBron isn't gonna sit unless unhealthy.

I think lebron would rather miss the playoffs than get embarrassed in the first round or the play-in. He’ll come back for a couple of games to qualify for the games-played requirement for the scoring title and then call it a season.

[exstatic]

I think lebron would rather miss the playoffs than get embarrassed in the first round or the play-in. He’ll come back for a couple of games to qualify for the games-played requirement for the scoring title and then call it a season.

You think missing the playoffs isn't more embarrassing?

[MultiTroll]

of which we will destroy Portland twice,
Because Portland is the most dedicated tank team for now iyo?
Vegas giving much better odds to even Orlando )(vs Toronto. Also Pacers (vs Celtics.)

[exstatic]

Because Portland is the most dedicated tank team for now iyo?
Vegas giving much better odds to even Orlando )(vs Toronto. Also Pacers (vs Celtics.)

Their injury list is 8-9 players every night, and it's always the same 8-9, and it's most of their rotation. The only game they've won in the last 10 is Houston, because they're just better at tanking. Portland is still learning the ropes.

[bdictjames]

I think the most important thing right now is consistency in how we play - this will set us up for success in the postseason, and we will take whatever success we have into next season.

But certainly, consistency is the most important for our guys. And for Lonnie, he is best when he is aggressive - just gotta keep that aggression going. That fires the team up too, in a way. I feel like a lot of our team just doesn't play with enough competitive fire at times.

[spurs1990]

Spurs just need to win the same number of games over the last six as LA.

Portland - easy win
Portland - easy win
@ Denver - Nuggs tied w/ Utah for 6th seed though Dal/GS are tied at 3/4 so Denver can't worry about losing to get a favorable matchup yet
@ Minny - 3 losses behind Den/Utah for 6th; otherwise they're going to face Memphis. They may not play to win this game
GS - same boat as Denver; should be playing to win as of now to avoid Phoenix in Round 2
@Dal - see GS; will play to win to avoid Phoenix in Round 2


Fake show
New Orleans - Bobcats are mostly locked in at 9th seed; Ingram will play but momentum of Davis/James returning favors LA
Denver - 50/50
@Phoenix - nothing to play for. LA should win if they've got their heads straight
@GS - toss up; LA whooped them last time
OKC - should be a win;
@Den - 50/50


By this count both teams have two assured wins - though San Antonio's two wins are tied to the sun rising as Portland tanking to an all time extreme.
LA has OKC and Phx as their locks. LA has to pull out a tough win for #3. Odds are good that the Spurs win 1 out of the 4 contested games. Spurs are the favorites to make the playoffs.

[exstatic]

Spurs just need to win the same number of games over the last six as LA.

Portland - easy win
Portland - easy win
@ Denver - Nuggs tied w/ Utah for 6th seed though Dal/GS are tied at 3/4 so Denver can't worry about losing to get a favorable matchup yet
@ Minny - 3 losses behind Den/Utah for 6th; otherwise they're going to face Memphis. They may not play to win this game
GS - same boat as Denver; should be playing to win as of now to avoid Phoenix in Round 2
@Dal - see GS; will play to win to avoid Phoenix in Round 2


Fake show
New Orleans - Bobcats are mostly locked in at 9th seed; Ingram will play but momentum of Davis/James returning favors LA
Denver - 50/50
@Phoenix - nothing to play for. LA should win if they've got their heads straight
@GS - toss up; LA whooped them last time
OKC - should be a win;
@Den - 50/50


By this count both teams have two assured wins - though San Antonio's two wins are tied to the sun rising as Portland tanking to an all time extreme.
LA has OKC and Phx as their locks. LA has to pull out a tough win for #3. Odds are good that the Spurs win 1 out of the 4 contested games. Spurs are the favorites to make the playoffs.

Denver should also be worried about dropping from 6th to 7th and the play in. Minny can pick up a game on them tonight.

GS is a quiet stealthy title contender. They may be worried about Home Court in the Finals against the top East teams.

[Mr. Body]

Denver should also be worried about dropping from 6th to 7th and the play in. Minny can pick up a game on them tonight.

GS is a quiet stealthy title contender. They may be worried about Home Court in the Finals against the top East teams.

I'd be very surprised to see the Warriors go deep. Memphis is my dark horse after the Suns. Anyone else would be a fluke. Apart from the injuries, Golden State gets waxed by teams with strong bigs. Even with Draymond they get wrecked inside.

[MannyIsGod]

I'd be very surprised to see the Warriors go deep. Memphis is my dark horse after the Suns. Anyone else would be a fluke. Apart from the injuries, Golden State gets waxed by teams with strong bigs. Even with Draymond they get wrecked inside.

Memphis a dark horse? Lol what? They're gonna finish with the 2nd best record in the NBA.

[cjw]

The Pelicans only have to fall into a tie, since we own the tie-breaker head to head 3-1. That being said, we're running out of time. Six games left, of which we will destroy Portland twice, but could possibly lose the other 4. There are still a lot of unsettled playoff positions

I stupidly took over 33.5 wins instead of 32.5. There is a real chance we could lose the last four, especially as Mavs/Warriors in last two may still be playing for position.

Blazers are must win, and I think they’ll be in for sure if they can pull off two of the other four. One of the other four and it’s possible. The Lakers aren’t doing better than 4-2 with Pelicans, Nuggets, Suns, Warriors and Nuggets in five of last six. Heck, they could even decide to forget to show up against the Thunder for all we know!

[exstatic]

I'd be very surprised to see the Warriors go deep. Memphis is my dark horse after the Suns. Anyone else would be a fluke. Apart from the injuries, Golden State gets waxed by teams with strong bigs. Even with Draymond they get wrecked inside.

GS is a former champion 3 seed who's second round opponent will be very inexperienced, playoff-wise. If they make the WCFs, the CP3 factor may kick in.

We were a 2 seed in '05 and a 3 seed in '07.

[Mr. Body]

GS is a former champion 3 seed who's second round opponent will be very inexperienced, playoff-wise. If they make the WCFs, the CP3 factor may kick in.

We were a 2 seed in '05 and a 3 seed in '07.

Like I said, I'd be stunned to see the Warriors win the championship. They aren't playing well and have significant weaknesses.

[Mr. Body]

Memphis a dark horse? Lol what? They're gonna finish with the 2nd best record in the NBA.

Dark horse:

"A dark horse is a previously less known person or thing that emerges to prominence in a situation, especially in a competition involving multiple rivals, or a contestant that on paper should be unlikely to succeed but yet still might."

They are literally the definition of a dark horse.

[itzsoweezee]

You think missing the playoffs isn't more embarrassing?

He’s missed the playoffs before, but he’s never lost in the first round. I’m sure that means more to him than making a pointless playoff appearance, especially if there is a possibility he might get knocked out by a shitty team in the play-in.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Spurs ain’t ever gonna tank so y’all might as well sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride. Knocking the lakers out of the playoffs is now what we should be looking forward to.

This.

[RC_Drunkford]

I think people here overrate the play-in. What really gets this team the experience is closing out the season to get into the play-in. That race has them focused, trying to win every game and executing in late game situations. That will really help the team grow, more than 1 or 2 play-in games

[Mr. Body]

I think people here overrate the play-in. What really gets this team the experience is closing out the season to get into the play-in. That race has them focused, trying to win every game and executing in late game situations. That will really help the team grow, more than 1 or 2 play-in games

I agree and this is a point I've been trying to make. These last games have been worth multiple games in the middle of the season.

[Mr. Body]

Tonight's Pelicans-Lakers tilt may be the most fascinating game between scrub teams in a very long time.

[MannyIsGod]

Dark horse:

"A dark horse is a previously less known person or thing that emerges to prominence in a situation, especially in a competition involving multiple rivals, or a contestant that on paper should be unlikely to succeed but yet still might."

They are literally the definition of a dark horse.

They aren't previously lesser known! You could have said they were a dark horse BEFORE the NBA season when no one expected them to do this, but at this point they are the 2nd best team in the NBA by record and trying to call them a dark horse. Read the rest of that definition. On paper should be unlikely to succeed. The 2nd seed in the entire NBA should be unlikely to succeed?

God damn some of you go to hilarious lengths to cover when you say something obviously wrong.

[RD2191]

OP es un faggot.

[Mr. Body]

They aren't previously lesser known! You could have said they were a dark horse BEFORE the NBA season when no one expected them to do this, but at this point they are the 2nd best team in the NBA by record and trying to call them a dark horse. Read the rest of that definition. On paper should be unlikely to succeed. The 2nd seed in the entire NBA should be unlikely to succeed?

God damn some of you go to hilarious lengths to cover when you say something obviously wrong.

Lol, get over it. You're wrong. Just stop.

[RD2191]

:corn:

[RD2191]

Why not make a poll asking if Memphis is a dark-horse contender or not?

[007nites]

Why not make a poll asking if Memphis is a dark-horse contender or not?

They were a dark horse contender at a point in the season but you can't call them that presently.

[Chinook]

I think people here overrate the play-in. What really gets this team the experience is closing out the season to get into the play-in. That race has them focused, trying to win every game and executing in late game situations. That will really help the team grow, more than 1 or 2 play-in games

Obviously "overrated" is a subjective term. But I don't know that people are valuing the play-in by itself as much the chance to make the playoffs. As I mentioned before, playing the same team multiple games in a row is an experience the Spurs can't replicate easily. They can to test out adjustments in real time and get to see how players like Murray, Walker and Johnson adjust to a team game-planning against them. It's also at least five more Spurs games (because there's still TECHNICALLY a chance the Spurs get the eighth seed going into the play-in tourney), which for many fans is just a good in and of itself. That doesn't mean you're wrong about this stretch being a test for the team, but there are more tests they can also undergo, and I want them to experience more of them.

What's overrated is the downside to winning games. I think a lot of fans are under the impression that the Spurs making the play-in means the team they knock out picks above them. That's not necessarily true. The play-in only affects the draft order if a team makes the playoffs. The Spurs have the tie-breaks over NOP and LAL (and LAC even though it doesn't matter), and they'd make the play-in seeded above any of those teams. But the draft doesn't care about tie-breaks and reverts everything to coinflips. So the Spurs could get the eighth seed going into the play-in, lose two games and then still have the eighth slot going into the lottery. We're likely only talking about one slot in the lottery (at most) at this point. It's basically found money unless the team wins their way into the real tourney.

[RC_Drunkford]

Obviously "overrated" is a subjective term. But I don't know that people are valuing the play-in by itself as much the chance to make the playoffs. As I mentioned before, playing the same team multiple games in a row is an experience the Spurs can't replicate easily. They can to test out adjustments in real time and get to see how players like Murray, Walker and Johnson adjust to a team game-planning against them. It's also at least five more Spurs games (because there's still TECHNICALLY a chance the Spurs get the eighth seed going into the play-in tourney), which for many fans is just a good in and of itself. That doesn't mean you're wrong about this stretch being a test for the team, but there are more tests they can also undergo, and I want them to experience more of them.

What's overrated is the downside to winning games. I think a lot of fans are under the impression that the Spurs making the play-in means the team they knock out picks above them. That's not necessarily true. The play-in only affects the draft order if a team makes the playoffs. The Spurs have the tie-breaks over NOP and LAL (and LAC even though it doesn't matter), and they'd make the play-in seeded above any of those teams. But the draft doesn't care about tie-breaks and reverts everything to coinflips. So the Spurs could get the eighth seed going into the play-in, lose two games and then still have the eighth slot going into the lottery. We're likely only talking about one slot in the lottery (at most) at this point. It's basically found money unless the team wins their way into the real tourney.

I know how the draft order works and let‘s be realistic. They are not making the playoffs

[spurraider21]

Lakers getting both Lebron and Davis back. With that on top of the ridiculous officiating advantage they're gonna get the play-in spot is theirs. Good news imo.
old bill simmons quote... the lakers are going to make the playoffs. its just a matter of who fouls out :lol

[spurraider21]

I know how the draft order works and let‘s be realistic. They are not making the playoffs
not likely to. but you dont think its conceivable they win games against the pelicans and clippers, for instance?

[Arcadian]

:lol lakers...fucking fucks

[spurs1990]

Pathetic display by LA as a team. Davis and James played great and they still can’t be the 9th seed bobcats at home.

[Ariel]

Pathetic display by LA as a team. Davis and James played great and they still can’t be the 9th seed bobcats at home.
I just watched the last few minutes... the decisions they made were atrocious... LeBron lowering his head and running into the whole Pelicans defense, a horrible LeBron-AD alley oop attempt, letting the clock run with 9 seconds left, LeBron pump faking like 4 times and throwing an airball... awful all around execution. By their play you'd think they were tanking hard. :bang

[FlAVaK]

Missing alley oops on consecutive posessions with under two minutes to go :rollin

[Dancelot]

Shit*y-ass Lakers are fu*king up our draft pick! Good lord a team w/ Davis, lebron & Westbrook is worse than our team? I actually LOVE this seasons team but holy sh*t! How are you worse than our team!? Honestly, this Spurs team would beat the shit out of this Lakers team RN if it was a play-in.

[BatManu20]

Yea lakers are dog shit. Lost a must-win game at home with Lebron, AD, & Russ all playing. Spurs are making the play-in.

[FutureMan]

Busted out laughing while watching the game tonight when they put up a graphic about how the Suns, Grizzlies, and Mavs were the 13th, 14th, and 15th seed just a few years ago. They were trying to make it seem like the Spurs could pull it off too but then they slid a comment right at the end “of course they had top 4 draft picks”

Hopefully there is a plan for this off-season. The whole “this is a fun group” shtick has run its course for me.

[ismael-robert]

Wow...well melo was last second scratch. Westbrook brought the whole team down once again. If zion is pulling a simmons with them that's truly messed up cause they're playing their butts off...imagine what they could do with him

[BackHome]

Well it looks like Steph Curry will sit out remaining regular games due to ligament strain in his foot not looking good for them

[Dex]

You just knew that Westbrook was gonna go hero ball after making a few shots to start the 4th. Ended with 12 points on 5/15 shooting.

[exstatic]

Wow...well melo was last second scratch. Westbrook brought the whole team down once again. If zion is pulling a simmons with them that's truly messed up cause they're playing their butts off...imagine what they could do with him

I haven’t heard anything about Zion to the Lakers. The chatter was that he wanted the Knicks.

[exstatic]

Well it looks like Steph Curry will sit out remaining regular games due to ligament strain in his foot not looking good for them

He’s been sitting out, and there was thought to be a chance that he might play one or two games, but I guess not. Strikes me as a precaution.

[widowmaker]

Wow...well melo was last second scratch. Westbrook brought the whole team down once again. If zion is pulling a simmons with them that's truly messed up cause they're playing their butts off...imagine what they could do with him


Check in the pelicans forum to see what they think zion would do playing with them right now.

[exstatic]

This is Karma for stealing AD from New Orleans. Every spot they fall improves the pick for the Pelicans.

[Mr. Body]

You just knew that Westbrook was gonna go hero ball after making a few shots to start the 4th. Ended with 12 points on 5/15 shooting.

Davis was more of a problem. He made some really shitty decisions down the stretch. That long two was unbelievable. Westbrook gets stick this year and that's fair, but Anthony Davis has been lazy and awful all year when he's been playing.

[Russ]

The Spurs have a magic number of 4 to clinch the 10 seed vs. the Lakers.

If the Spurs beat Portland tomorrow, it's down to 3 (if the Lakers also lose, it's 2). Each team would have 4 games left, so a total of 8 games between the two teams of which either 6 or 7 would have to go the wrong way. The Spurs should get the 10 seed.

Assuming the Spurs don't rise to the 8 seed (unlikely) they still have a lottery shot at Banchero, Jabari or Holmgren.

If they don't move up in the draft, they still have a decent shot at Shaedon Sharpe -- he may be as good as any of them.

The glass looks half full to me.

[Mr. Body]

The Spurs have a magic number of 4 to clinch the 10 seed vs. the Lakers.

If the Spurs beat Portland tomorrow, it's down to 3 (if the Lakers also lose, it's 2). Each team would have 4 games left, so a total of 8 games between the two teams of which either 6 or 7 would have to go the wrong way. The Spurs should get the 10 seed.

Assuming the Spurs don't rise to the 8 seed (unlikely) they still have a lottery shot at Banchero, Jabari or Holmgren.

If they don't move up in the draft, they still have a decent shot at Shaedon Sharpe -- he may be as good as any of them.

The glass looks half full to me.

I think with a play-in, not overtaking the Pelicans, and losing the play-in at any point, the Spurs will be pick #9, is that right? Since they will pass the Lakers (and assuming the Wizards and Knicks don't lose too many).

[Chinook]

I think with a play-in, not overtaking the Pelicans, and losing the play-in at any point, the Spurs will be pick #9, is that right? Since they will pass the Lakers (and assuming the Wizards and Knicks don't lose too many).

Not necessarily. The Spurs can tie with LAL and get both the play-in spot and the eighth lottery slot. The two have different tie-break conditions

[exstatic]

Not necessarily. The Spurs can tie with LAL and get both the play-in spot and the eighth lottery slot. The two have different tie-break conditions

I think draft ties are solved via coin flips.

[Russ]

I think draft ties are solved via coin flips.

So a 10 seed tie with the Lakers is the sweet spot. (Unless the NBA changes the rules at the last minute ex post facto.)

[JPB]

Yeah let's troll LA to their bones and get the tie...

Even though it seems to be a improbable alternative or at least something you don't want since it would basically mean spurs one game behind LA before the last game and then winning the last and LA losing theirs... On the opposite case (spurs up one game before the last)... LA would have no meaning winning their last game.

[JPB]

I just watched the last few minutes... the decisions they made were atrocious... LeBron lowering his head and running into the whole Pelicans defense, a horrible LeBron-AD alley oop attempt, letting the clock run with 9 seconds left, LeBron pump faking like 4 times and throwing an airball... awful all around execution. By their play you'd think they were tanking hard. :bang

It feels like they don't know they don't have a pick... "Wait, whaa!?"

[MannyIsGod]

I only watched bits of the game last night but it seemed Lebron was balling out. It can't be understated how underwhelming AD is right now. Yeah, they're not a good team after the top 2, but a team with Lebron playing that hard/well and AD should be able to beat the Pelicans easily.

[Mr. Body]

I only watched bits of the game last night but it seemed Lebron was balling out. It can't be understated how underwhelming AD is right now. Yeah, they're not a good team after the top 2, but a team with Lebron playing that hard/well and AD should be able to beat the Pelicans easily.

They went completely away from LeBron at the end. It should have been a steady diet of him going to the basket. I have no idea what they were doing.

[RC_Drunkford]

Davis was more of a problem. He made some really shitty decisions down the stretch. That long two was unbelievable. Westbrook gets stick this year and that's fair, but Anthony Davis has been lazy and awful all year when he's been playing.

He's always been overrated. Only got the Pelicans to the playoffs once. I always said LaMarcus was a way better player than him, since he could get a team into the first round by himself

[SAGirl]

He's always been overrated. Only got the Pelicans to the playoffs once. I always said LaMarcus was a way better player than him, since he could get a team into the first round by himself
A late prime Lamarcus when he was still an all star always dominated Davis in the RS.

[emanueldavidginobili]

1510124168108408838

1510098974363078656

Nuggets will for sure be playing all of their players which is great because I’ll be at the game Tuesday night against the Spurs.

[itzsoweezee]

Lebron’s taking the nuggets game off. I predicted this shit. He’s going to pad his scoring stats for one more game (against a weaker opponent), then call it a season. Spurs have the 10 seed wrapped up if they want it.

[8sy21vd]

Lakers are sunk. What a shit show but at least they go their ring (with an *). They should definitely trade AD and send Lebron to an acceptable destination and get some draft assets to rebuild. Nobody would take that Westbrick contract haha. Is there a worse contract is the history of the NBA?

I could see the Spurs get by NO but would probably lose to the Pups. Spurs still are in the lottery if they get bounced in the play-in, right? I hope so.

[exstatic]

Lakers are sunk. What a shit show but at least they go their ring (with an *). They should definitely trade AD and send Lebron to an acceptable destination and get some draft assets to rebuild. Nobody would take that Westbrick contract haha. Is there a worse contract is the history of the NBA?

I could see the Spurs get by NO but would probably lose to the Pups. Spurs still are in the lottery if they get bounced in the play-in, right? I hope so.

We could finish 10th in the West, with the #9 pick, beat N.O., but lose the second game, and we wouldn’t even lose our draft spot.

In the play in, your draft spot only changes if you make the play offs from 9/10, or fall out of them from 7/8.

[duncan2150]

Lakers lose to Nuggets. If Sa wins tonight, play in will not be far.

[BatManu20]

Lakers season is over. They’re not winning out and we’re not losing the remaining 4 games.

Spurs are in the play-in.

[lefty20]

Lakers season is over. They’re not winning out and we’re not losing the remaining 4 games.

Spurs are in the play-in.

Idk, I can definitely see us finishing 0-4. It's looking like all 4 of those opponents will be jockeying for better seeds and gunning for Ws.

Now the odds of Lakers winning out are :lol. And unless I'm mistaken, Lakers will be forced to do so if we win tonight.

Edit : I was mistaken. Lakers can still go 3-1 and get in if we finish 0-4.

[TD 21]

He's always been overrated. Only got the Pelicans to the playoffs once. I always said LaMarcus was a way better player than him, since he could get a team into the first round by himself

:lmao Results without context. They were a mostly bad and chronically injured team. The only two times they were both decent and relatively healthy, they made the playoffs, the second time sweeping a Trail Blazers team in what was thought to be a coin flip series going in.

I realize James missed a third of his first season as a Laker, but they literally went from out of the playoffs to championship with Davis and a team that was otherwise not championship caliber and he was the best player in "the bubble".

Aldridge has no credible case as a better player. He was more durable though and arguably a more natural offensive hub as more of a true post player.

[bdictjames]

I'm thinking this team is too hungry. At the worst I see us finishing 2-3 these last 5, and still getting to the play-in.

I don't see the Lakers beating Phoenix the next game. And Phoenix will definitely want to turn on the afterburners, they don't want to see Lakeshow in the first round.

Can't believe our Spurs team is in the play-in, ahead of the Lakers lol.

[8sy21vd]

We could finish 10th in the West, with the #9 pick, beat N.O., but lose the second game, and we wouldn’t even lose our draft spot.

In the play in, your draft spot only changes if you make the play offs from 9/10, or fall out of them from 7/8.

Thx. That's what i though. The Spurs could forfeit the rest of their games and still comfortably end up in the 10 spot. The Lakers look like the worst team in the league right now even with Lebron/Davis in lineup. How pitiful and they keep showing them on national tv. A slow moving car wreck.

[Robz4000]

Spurs prolly gonna finish 1-4, maybe 0-5, but the only game I see the Lakers winning is at home against OKC tbh. That being said, can't discount the overwhelming officiating advantage they'll have in every game.

[RC_Drunkford]

:lmao Results without context. They were a mostly bad and chronically injured team. The only two times they were both decent and relatively healthy, they made the playoffs, the second time sweeping a Trail Blazers team in what was thought to be a coin flip series going in.

I realize James missed a third of his first season as a Laker, but they literally went from out of the playoffs to championship with Davis and a team that was otherwise not championship caliber and he was the best player in "the bubble".

Aldridge has no credible case as a better player. He was more durable though and arguably a more natural offensive hub as more of a true post player.

I‘m not talking about the Lakers, I am talking about what he did as a First option on the Pelicans where he played with Jrue Holiday and did literally nothing. And don’t make excuses about injuries when AD is the one who‘s always injured.

Oh but he took the Lakers to the championship as a 2nd option in the BUBBLE. Put a big * behind that since you want to talk about context :lmao Now he can‘t even take them to the play in. GTFOH

[spurraider21]

Magic number is 2

lakers next game is & suns too

[exstatic]

Magic number is 2

lakers next game is & suns too

Suns are completely locked in at #1, and are apparently resting almost everyone because they just lost to the fucking THUNDER.

[Dex]

Suns are completely locked in at #1, and are apparently resting almost everyone because they just lost to the fucking THUNDER.

They might get up for a chance to knock the Lakers out, though.

Sucks that Curry is out for GSW, otherwise that would also have been a 99% loss for the Lakers.

[Mr. Body]

I‘m not talking about the Lakers, I am talking about what he did as a First option on the Pelicans where he played with Jrue Holiday and did literally nothing. And don’t make excuses about injuries when AD is the one who‘s always injured.

Oh but he took the Lakers to the championship as a 2nd option in the BUBBLE. Put a big * behind that since you want to talk about context :lmao Now he can‘t even take them to the play in. GTFOH

Yeah, Davis is one of the most overrated players in recent NBA history. He has a lot of talent, but is incredibly soft and listless much of the time. He doesn't even seem to have developed much. His great success game under LeBron during a bubble when everyone was checked out. He also won an NCAA title but only because there was a lockout and that Kentucky team double dipped in their one-and-dones. His success as a leader of a team was very underwhelming. David Robinson dragged worse teams constantly into the playoffs. There are a lot of reasons why the Lakers sucked this year -- Westbrook, an awful supporting cast -- but to me Anthony Davis was the key horror. Other than his fragility, he was incapable of driving and leading the team to wins. He was second or third banana when he should have been shouldering the load for all the geezers.

[Darius Bieber]

I mean, I understand why they are going for it. They just weren't able to out-tank Portland/OKC/Houston/Detroit/Orlando and even now Indiana. Might as well go for it and create pressure situations for the young guys to learn from.

Although I definitely would have rather been able to out-tank these other teams, it is what it is up to this point.

Also, it doesn't really help that the two picks we gained from trades this trade deadline have gotten way worse since February since both Boston and Toronto have been winning. So, all-in-all, our entire draft stock portfolio is pretty much dead in the water.

[JPB]

Spurs prolly gonna finish 1-4, maybe 0-5, but the only game I see the Lakers winning is at home against OKC tbh. That being said, can't discount the overwhelming officiating advantage they'll have in every game.

They've won 6 of their last 7 (their only loss, a one point defeat Vs. Memphis). I don't see them finishing the season 0-4 now, specially that they might play one or two games vs. teams who won't play for anything anymore. We'll see.

[Dex]

I mean, I understand why they are going for it. They just weren't able to out-tank Portland/OKC/Houston/Detroit/Orlando and even now Indiana. Might as well go for it and create pressure situations for the young guys to learn from.

Although I definitely would have rather been able to out-tank these other teams, it is what it is up to this point.

Also, it doesn't really help that the two picks we gained from trades this trade deadline have gotten way worse since February since both Boston and Toronto have been winning. So, all-in-all, our entire draft stock portfolio is pretty much dead in the water.

At least Toronto winning means the pick conveys this year. Them being middle of the pack is ideal. I really didn't want to wait to see what Toronto does next year...if they suck, then we basically get stuck with two shitty second rounders.

As it stands now we will probably still got a top 20 pick out of it, which is better than the Spurs were drafting through all of the Duncan era.

[Ariel]

Here's the remaining schedule for every team which could affect the 1st, 2nd and 3rd first rounders respectively. Projected wins in green:
https://i.ibb.co/3SRX66n/projected-picks.png
It's an optimistic scenario if you're looking for the best picks possible, but not unrealistic. If it were to happen and the Spurs don't succeed in advancing to the playoffs through the play in, then they would be in a tie for the 8th pick (randomly decided with the Lakers), the Toronto pick would fall in the 20th place, and the Boston pick would be at 23, though this could vary significantly, since Boston has only 3 games remaining that are tough, and dropping one or two would be huge for us.

[emanueldavidginobili]

Well L tomorrow Dejounte is out again, and i'll be at the game tomorrow smfh.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Some of you... a lot of you apparently... don't understand how the lottery and draft order work. The lottery is ONLY for a chance at those first 4 picks. After that, everyone picks in order of record, worst to best. Look carefully at the lottery odds charts. For the 9th lottery seed, it's either one of the first four draft picks, or the 9-13 seed. Nothing in between.

Imagine that the 11, 12, 13, and 14 lottery seeds (best four records still in the lottery) all get miracle ping pong balls and take all four of the first picks. From there on, everyone else just gets shoved down 4 places in the draft order. That's why the #1 lottery seed (team with worst record) can't get any worse than the 5th pick in the lottery - they can only be shoved down as many as 4 places to lottery winners. So the team with the 9th worst record has a zero percent chance of getting the #8 draft pick. That's ZERO percent.

And no, they didn't get out-tanked. The Spurs won three games here at the end of the season (OKC, GSW, NOP, and HOU) that were nail-biters. They could have held their heads high and still not win those games in the last seconds. Those 4 wins likely dropped the Spurs chance of a 1-4 pick by at least a third, AND lowered their non-lottery draft pick by two spots. Maybe more, depending on how the last few games come out. Plus they would have had no chance of dropping completely out of the lottery.

Be honest: If you were a finalist in a drawing for a million bucks, would you care if your chace of winning went down from 32% to 20%, and had a chance of dropping even more? Or would you say that "there's really not that much of a difference between the two"?

[BatManu20]

Spurs have a better chance of moving down to 10 or 11 than we do moving into the top-4 of the lottery if we stay at 9.

[Ariel]

Besides the Spurs own pick, two games are key as they could move the other picks a couple spots up or down: Philadelphia vs Toronto and Boston vs Milwaukee, both on Thursday. Reminder to keep an eye on those.

[Chinook]

Some of you... a lot of you apparently... don't understand how the lottery and draft order work. The lottery is ONLY for a chance at those first 4 picks. After that, everyone picks in order of record, worst to best. Look carefully at the lottery odds charts. For the 9th lottery seed, it's either one of the first four draft picks, or the 9-13 seed. Nothing in between.

Imagine that the 11, 12, 13, and 14 lottery seeds (best four records still in the lottery) all get miracle ping pong balls and take all four of the first picks. From there on, everyone else just gets shoved down 4 places in the draft order. That's why the #1 lottery seed (team with worst record) can't get any worse than the 5th pick in the lottery - they can only be shoved down as many as 4 places to lottery winners. So the team with the 9th worst record has a zero percent chance of getting the #8 draft pick. That's ZERO percent.

And no, they didn't get out-tanked. The Spurs won three games here at the end of the season (OKC, GSW, NOP, and HOU) that were nail-biters. They could have held their heads high and still not win those games in the last seconds. Those 4 wins likely dropped the Spurs chance of a 1-4 pick by at least a third, AND lowered their non-lottery draft pick by two spots. Maybe more, depending on how the last few games come out. Plus they would have had no chance of dropping completely out of the lottery.

Be honest: If you were a finalist in a drawing for a million bucks, would you care if your chace of winning went down from 32% to 20%, and had a chance of dropping even more? Or would you say that "there's really not that much of a difference between the two"?

This is a misrepresentation. You can't ask the players to purposefully throw a game they're playing. That's when it goes from tanking to a potential crime. The Spurs have done a lot to make sure they're playing almost all young players. Them winning despite that is just getting out-tanked. That's what the term means, not that they were trying to score own-goals for OKC but they kept stealing the ball to score own-goals themselves.

I don't know if anyone misunderstood the way the lotto works. It's possible. But it's also possible that you are misinterpreting what variance people were discussing. The Spurs have the ninth spot now, but they can still get the eighth spot or the tenth or whatever, just like they can still get the 15 spot. Only a small number of slots are actually impossible (5, 6 and 7). It's becoming less likely, but it's still possible that we won't know where the Spurs end up being slotted until one or more coinflips, meaning come Sunday, it's possible that all of 1-4 and 8-15 are still options. Which prospects are available where is also still very much up in the air, so a guy slated to go at 6 could still easily be in the cards even if the Spurs get into the play-in.

Anyway, your example is awful. A top pick isn't a million bucks, let alone a generic top-four pick. Like if someone told you to quit your $50k (with promotion potential) a year job for an increased chance to win one of four prizes that varied from $400k to $100k, would you do it? Maybe, especially because in the real world, you can get another job. But overvaluing the likely upside and pretending as if there's no downside is basically shitting all over the the table and still wanting to have a meeting at the table. It's fine that you don't care about the potential benefits of the Spurs continuing to try to play their young players in as many games as they can over literally risking litigation by losing games at the last minute to get better odds. But some of us do see that, and it's pretty easy to understand when you present the point fairly. It would be great if they could have both, but I'd totally take the Spurs playing more competitive games with guys like Murray, Johnson and Walker than a chance to win a raffle to get the chance to pick a player who has a chance of developing into a better player the Spurs are already guaranteed to have a chance to pick. That's never been a conflict in my mind.

[ZeusWillJudge]

This is a misrepresentation. You can't ask the players to purposefully throw a game they're playing. That's when it goes from tanking to a potential crime. The Spurs have done a lot to make sure they're playing almost all young players. Them winning despite that is just getting out-tanked. That's what the term means, not that they were trying to score own-goals for OKC but they kept stealing the ball to score own-goals themselves.

I don't know if anyone misunderstood the way the lotto works. It's possible. But it's also possible that you are misinterpreting what variance people were discussing. The Spurs have the ninth spot now, but they can still get the eighth spot or the tenth or whatever, just like they can still get the 15 spot. Only a small number of slots are actually impossible (5, 6 and 7). It's becoming less likely, but it's still possible that we won't know where the Spurs end up being slotted until one or more coinflips, meaning come Sunday, it's possible that all of 1-4 and 8-15 are still options. Which prospects are available where is also still very much up in the air, so a guy slated to go at 6 could still easily be in the cards even if the Spurs get into the play-in.

Anyway, your example is awful. A top pick isn't a million bucks, let alone a generic top-four pick. Like if someone told you to quit your $50k (with promotion potential) a year job for an increased chance to win one of four prizes that varied from $400k to $100k, would you do it? Maybe, especially because in the real world, you can get another job. But overvaluing the likely upside and pretending as if there's no downside is basically shitting all over the the table and still wanting to have a meeting at the table. It's fine that you don't care about the potential benefits of the Spurs continuing to try to play their young players in as many games as they can over literally risking litigation by losing games at the last minute to get better odds. But some of us do see that, and it's pretty easy to understand when you present the point fairly. It would be great if they could have both, but I'd totally take the Spurs playing more competitive games with guys like Murray, Johnson and Walker than a chance to win a raffle to get the chance to pick a player who has a chance of developing into a better player the Spurs are already guaranteed to have a chance to pick. That's never been a conflict in my mind.


LOL. How did I know that the most ignorant person still on this forum would reply? The simple (just for you) fact is that when you decrease your percentage chance of winning something by 33% or more, it's a BIG difference.

And moving up to a Top 4 pick isn't worth a million dollars? Do you really think that? Do you have any idea how much second round picks go for, cash? (Of course you don't.) Last year, the Sixers bought a mid-second round pick for $2 Million. Probably 6 or 7 years ago I remember the Wizards selling a second for... almost $2M. And you think that a move up from mid-first to Top 4 isn't worth $1 Million?

So how about this... would you give a second round pick in addition to #10, to move up to the #4 pick? Any GM in the league would, and every other person here would. Well that's $2 Million worth.

Criminal? Did you really say criminal? Maybe if it's part of a gambling points-shaving scheme. But you think giving some young players run in the last minute of a game is criminal? I feel like Andy Griffith just gave me a stern talkin'-to. I'll just check myself into the jail, so you can run on along and see if Aint Bea will make you one of them cherry pies. Say "Hey" to Goober for me.

[objective]

Not only is ruining their lottery odds with the anti-tank stupid for team building reasons, it's stupid business wise.

Nobody is buying tickets or going to games... Hell, that's the perfect time to tank, no one is paying attention.

But a top pick and a move up would at least be something to get fans excited for, or give the reps something to sell on their ticket packages.

Nobody is going to buy in when all there is to look forward to is some middling pick 10-15 who won't do anything and getting to watch the incremental improvement in another season aiming for the play in game.

4 years of wasted time after the Kawhi trade. And the best piece on the team by far is Murray who was on the team before the trade!

Sad.

[R. DeMurre]

I think people are really over-valuing the experience of the play-in game. If it happens, fine, but I imagine its long term effect on the development of Keldon, Primo, and Vassell is close to zero. I can't see anyone looking back in 2024 and honestly thinking, "Keldon's progress really took a hit when he didn't get to play in that 2022 play-in game." KJ isn't some brittle fragile flower whose entire career trajectory is going to be impacted by such a nonconsequential thing.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I think people are really over-valuing the experience of the play-in game. If it happens, fine, but I imagine its long term effect on the development of Keldon, Primo, and Vassell is close to zero. I can't see anyone looking back in 2024 and honestly thinking, "Keldon's progress really took a hit when he didn't get to play in that 2022 play-in game." KJ isn't some brittle fragile flower whose entire career trajectory is going to be impacted by such a nonconsequential thing.

It's not that one or two games though - it's the whole process of going for it, improving after the trade deadline, playing a lot of close games, hitting game winners, missing game winners - all of that. As opposed to being shut down for the season after game 60.

Also, it's not like the Spurs have traded for a bunch of veterans in order to chase the play-in - they have done the opposite - they have one guy who's 28 in the rotation and everyone else is younger. Even Primo, who's the youngest player in the league and is super raw, is close to hitting 1000 minutes for the season, which is more than Murray, Keldon and White have played in their first seasons combined.

[BacktoBasics]

No one wants to sign or go to a perennial tanker. You’re at least appealing if you’re on the cusp of being relevant.

I wouldn’t have minded a tank this year but it’s not a bad look going into the off-season if this team makes the play in. We’re not a bottom feeding team. We’re 1 good player away from being a legitimate playoff threat.

[JPB]

LOL. How did I know that the most ignorant person still on this forum would reply? The simple (just for you) fact is that when you decrease your percentage chance of winning something by 33% or more, it's a BIG difference.

And moving up to a Top 4 pick isn't worth a million dollars? Do you really think that? Do you have any idea how much second round picks go for, cash? (Of course you don't.) Last year, the Sixers bought a mid-second round pick for $2 Million. Probably 6 or 7 years ago I remember the Wizards selling a second for... almost $2M. And you think that a move up from mid-first to Top 4 isn't worth $1 Million?

So how about this... would you give a second round pick in addition to #10, to move up to the #4 pick? Any GM in the league would, and every other person here would. Well that's $2 Million worth.

Criminal? Did you really say criminal? Maybe if it's part of a gambling points-shaving scheme. But you think giving some young players run in the last minute of a game is criminal? I feel like Andy Griffith just gave me a stern talkin'-to. I'll just check myself into the jail, so you can run on along and see if Aint Bea will make you one of them cherry pies. Say "Hey" to Goober for me.

Your comparison doesn't make sense... You're comparing winning 1 million bucks, which is a sure reward where you know what you're betting for and eventually getting, with young human prospects who by definition may boom, be OK or bust for aleatory results... The equation isn't a simple as you want to see it.

Proof is lots of top 4 picks have been busts and lots of non lottery picks have been top players. So this isn't as mathematical as you try to present it and your numbers don't really correspond to anything.

You actually would have to determine players success history for every pick to determine what chances you're losing at getting a gem by going down 1, 2, 3... picks in the draft.

And of course, with that basic level of analysis, he had to start his take by calling another poster stupid...

[Dex]

It's not that one or two games though - it's the whole process of going for it, improving after the trade deadline, playing a lot of close games, hitting game winners, missing game winners - all of that. As opposed to being shut down for the season after game 60.

Also, it's not like the Spurs have traded for a bunch of veterans in order to chase the play-in - they have done the opposite - they have one guy who's 28 in the rotation and everyone else is younger. Even Primo, who's the youngest player in the league and is super raw, is close to hitting 1000 minutes for the season, which is more than Murray, Keldon and White have played in their first seasons combined.

I think this is an excellent point.

SpursTalk: WE SHOULD DUMP FORBES AND PLAY PRIMO MORE!

Pop: dumps Forbes, plays Primo more

SpursTalk: WHAT THE FUCK, WHY ARE WE PLAYING BETTER AND WINNING GAMES!?

I'm sorry, but asking these guys to play well but also intentionally throw games is a loser mentality and I don't support it. You know the best way for players to develop? It's trying to play well eough to win games.

We either suck bad enough to tank, or we play well enough to win. You can't ask these players to go out there and act like the Washington Generals.

[TDomination]

I think this is an excellent point.

SpursTalk: WE SHOULD DUMP FORBES AND PLAY PRIMO MORE!

Pop: dumps Forbes, plays Primo more

SpursTalk: WHAT THE FUCK, WHY ARE WE PLAYING BETTER AND WINNING GAMES!?

I'm sorry, but asking these guys to play well but also intentionally throw games is a loser mentality and I don't support it. You know the best way for players to develop? It's trying to play well eough to win games.

We either suck bad enough to tank, or we play well enough to win. You can't ask these players to go out there and act like the Washington Generals.

thank you for some common sense.

[Fireball]

I think this is an excellent point.

SpursTalk: WE SHOULD DUMP FORBES AND PLAY PRIMO MORE!

Pop: dumps Forbes, plays Primo more

SpursTalk: WHAT THE FUCK, WHY ARE WE PLAYING BETTER AND WINNING GAMES!?

I'm sorry, but asking these guys to play well but also intentionally throw games is a loser mentality and I don't support it. You know the best way for players to develop? It's trying to play well eough to win games.

We either suck bad enough to tank, or we play well enough to win. You can't ask these players to go out there and act like the Washington Generals.

very well said ...

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Looking at the Lakers remaining schedule, they very well could go 4-0. They'll face a GSW team without Steph, a Phoenix team who's resting all of their guys, and OKC who should be a gimme. The only challenge will be Denver. So the Spurs work isn't done yet for the play-in.

Tanking to move up a spot or two would have been a dumb strategy. Not really instilling a winning attitude with that approach. Battling the Lakers for the last play-in spot is actually a good learning experience for these guys.

[Dex]

Looking at the Lakers remaining schedule, they very well could go 4-0. They'll face a GSW team without Steph, a Phoenix team who's resting all of their guys, and OKC who should be a gimme. The only challenge will be Denver. So the Spurs work isn't done yet for the play-in.

Tanking to move up a spot or two would have been a dumb strategy. Not really instilling a winning attitude with that approach. Battling the Lakers for the last play-in spot is actually a good learning experience for these guys.

I think Phoenix will at least try to win their game. There is some bad blood between the teams, including when LeBron said their record was only so good because they have been healthy (even though Phoenix has had plenty of injuries of their own).

We'll find out tonight if Phoenix wants to take it seriously, but I think it is going to take one more Spurs win and one more Lakers loss for them to be closed out and, while likely, that is not guaranteed.

[exstatic]

Looking at the Lakers remaining schedule, they very well could go 4-0. They'll face a GSW team without Steph, a Phoenix team who's resting all of their guys, and OKC who should be a gimme. The only challenge will be Denver. So the Spurs work isn't done yet for the play-in.

Tanking to move up a spot or two would have been a dumb strategy. Not really instilling a winning attitude with that approach. Battling the Lakers for the last play-in spot is actually a good learning experience for these guys.

The magic number is 2. They have to go 3-1 and we have to go 0-4 for LA to edge us out.

[Russ]

Crazy as it sounds, the Lakers are trying to win, they just can't.

The Lakers usually lead most of the game but just can't hold on, as the LA Times put it, like they're running "a 400 meter sprint with 300 meters' worth of stamina."

I think they would like to tie the Spurs so they could say they lost out on the playoffs (their word) due to a tiebreaker.

That could play into the Spurs' ideal scenario -- a tie with the Lakers.

[exstatic]

LeBron is out tonight.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah I think LeBron is going for the "injuries derailed us" mythology. They just sucked is all.

[R. DeMurre]

It's not that one or two games though - it's the whole process of going for it, improving after the trade deadline, playing a lot of close games, hitting game winners, missing game winners - all of that. As opposed to being shut down for the season after game 60.

Also, it's not like the Spurs have traded for a bunch of veterans in order to chase the play-in - they have done the opposite - they have one guy who's 28 in the rotation and everyone else is younger. Even Primo, who's the youngest player in the league and is super raw, is close to hitting 1000 minutes for the season, which is more than Murray, Keldon and White have played in their first seasons combined.


Just to be clear, I never advocated for tanking. I hoped the Spurs would get the best draft pick possible, but it's not like I wanted Pop to tell the guys to lose. My point was simply that people were making too much of the play-in, and I just don't think the development of the younger players is somehow going to be critically changed by whether or not this team makes the play-in.

[MannyIsGod]

Spurs and Lakers winning percentages according to 538's RAPTOR model:

Spurs at Denver - 17%
Spurs at Minny - 20%
Warriors at Spurs - 51%
Spurs @ Dallas - 17%

Assuming these are correct, obviously best chance is a fully healthy (sans McBuckets) lineup vs Warriors. That being said, Spurs are about a coinflip to win one of the other 3 games. 1-3 end to this season seems the most likely outcome. Spurs will go 0-4 27% of the time.

Lakers @ Suns - 15%
Lakers @ Warriors 26%
OKC @ Lakers - 91%
Lakers @ Den 17%

Almost a sure win against OKC, but Lakers HAVE to go 3-1 and hope the Spurs don't win anything in order to pass the Spurs.

According to these odds, the Lakers have a 0.6% chance go go undefeated on the final 4. Less than 1%. Assuming they win the OKC game, the odds are basically the exact same for them going 3-1, 0.066%

These numbers will change dramatically if the Lakers or the Spurs win one of the unlikely games, but as it stands right now Spurs are virtually in.

[MultiTroll]

LeBron is out tonight.
Who is out / resting for the Suns?

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

The magic number is 2. They have to go 3-1 and we have to go 0-4 for LA to edge us out.

Unlikely for sure, but I don't completely think this group is ever out of the water until they're, well, out of the water. :lol

When the magic number is zero I'll celebrate.

[exstatic]

Unlikely for sure, but I don't completely think this group is ever out of the water until they're, well, out of the water. :lol

When the magic number is zero I'll celebrate.

I’m not saying it’s outside of probability for us to go 0-4, but I don’t see any possibility of LA going 3-1.

[Robz4000]

Looks like Phoenix is playing everyone against the Lakers.

[lefty20]

Looks like Phoenix is playing everyone against the Lakers.

Prolly limited minutes for the top dogs.

[007nites]

Prolly limited minutes for the top dogs.

Unlikely, Paul and Booker still playing 30+ minutes a night. Most likely the last 2 games of the season they will limit minutes or sit out starters.

[Seventyniner]

I don't like the idea of purposefully tanking, especially when the youngest players (the ones you expect to play the most in a tanking situation) are actually playing pretty well. But this is the time to do it. Only 5 games (last game plus the next 4) won't damage the team's psyche.

And if you don't tank now, you definitely do it once the play-in berth is clinched. There are zero reasons to win games after that.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Looks like Phoenix is playing everyone against the Lakers.

Interesting. Hopefully that's good for the Spurs.

[Seventyniner]

Interesting. Hopefully that's good for the Spurs.

It definitely is. If the Spurs clinch a play-in berth tonight (Spurs win and Lakers lose), the Spurs can tank the last 3 games and get into the play-in while also not losing too much ground in the pick order.

[007nites]

LA staying in it so far

[Uriel]

Next on the agenda: getting #9 from New Orleans.

[DAF86]

What's the play-in format?

[Seventyniner]

What's the play-in format?

7 plays 8, winner gets the 7 seed.
9 plays 10, loser is out.
7/8 loser plays 9/10 winner, winner gets 8 seed and loser is out.
Higher seed is the home team in every game.

[007nites]

Isiah Thomas just called Murray "Dounte".

[XenoThirteen]

The magic number is 2. They have to go 3-1 and we have to go 0-4 for LA to edge us out.

[Kurik]

While it would have been nice to have a high draft pick, eliminating the Lakers is pretty sweet. It feels even better knowing that their relatively high draft position goes to New Orleans and the Spurs.

[TDomination]

Lakers down 12

[Fusternino]

When's the next time the Lakers get their own pick?

I guess NO being just as bad LA makes the swap rights next to worthless?

[lefty20]

Yup, we in. Phoenix is tearing Lakers a new one and the Lakers seem to be enjoying the experience.

[B1gduff]

Laker down big! we're in! now lets see if we can over take NO! Give me that game against the Clip, win or lose!

[Dex]

Lakers down 26 in the 3rd.

This is a wrap, we going to the play-in

[Dverde]

Suns gotta be pumped to finish the Lakers after AD said they would have beat them if he was healthy.

[007nites]

Yup, we in. Phoenix is tearing Lakers a new one and the Lakers seem to be enjoying the experience.

LeBron was all laughs on the sidelines. He doesn't give a fuck lol.

[Mr. Body]

Anthony Davis has always been a soft-ass motherfucker.

[timtonymanu]

:lolLakers

Literally did worse than a team that was in lottery mode pretty much all year

[Kurik]

When's the next time the Lakers get their own pick?

I guess NO being just as bad LA makes the swap rights next to worthless?

New Orleans can swap positions in 2023 and then choose either the Lakers 2024 or 2025 pick. The next Lakers first round pick without strings attached won’t be until 2026.

[Sugus]

Fakers losing, love to see it, every time. Thoroughly enjoyable season for this alone among many other factors. No matter how the Spurs end up doing (how high a pick could they end up with if they lost at the play-in, best case scenario? Anyone know?), knowing the Fakers are missing the POs and don't even get a pick to show for it, whilst having by far the oldest roster in the league, crowned with being tied to paying a decrepit Westbrook another $47 million dollars next season...

Just beautiful. Couldn't have drawn it up better.

[TDomination]

Hahaha we ousted the Lakers!!

Makes this year oh so worth it!!!

[Sugus]

Fakers: down 15 in the closing minutes of a must-win game

AD: stepback midrange jumper

:lmao

[Dex]

Just a reminder that the Lakers missed the playoffs and there is a 99% chance their first round pick goes to New Orleans, the team that helped kick them out of the playoffs :lmao

[Chinook]

Play-in locked in. Now beat NOP and knock out LAC in the second game of the play-in. That would be sweet, though it's already awesome.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

SPAM.


:spam:

[offset formation]

SPAM.


:spam:

Shouldn't you be saying something about moving the team to Vegas or Seattle??

[Robz4000]

Just a reminder that the Lakers missed the playoffs and there is a 99% chance their first round pick goes to New Orleans, the team that helped kick them out of the playoffs :lmao

What's the 1% chance they keep their pick about?

[lefty20]

What's the 1% chance they keep their pick about?

They still wouldn't keep it in that scenario. It'd go to Memphis instead, if the pick lands out of top 10.

In short, Lakers = Fucked!

[Robz4000]

They still wouldn't keep it in that scenario. It'd go to Memphis instead, if the pick lands out of top 10.

In short, Lakers = Fucked!

:lol for a minute I thought I missed something
:lol Lakers

[FlAVaK]

What's the 1% chance they keep their pick about?

https://lakeshowlife.com/2022/04/02/lakers-draft-pick-pelicans-first-overall-odds/

It could go to Memphis...

[XDT76]

This run in to play-in seems better than I expected look at the following line line-up

Primo
Jones
Vassell
McD/KBD
Zollins.

4 of 5 guys in that line-up plays majority of the 1Q against the Nuggets starters to a virtual draw and they could be our reserves line-up next season, as long as all our guys keep it up we are definitely gonna have a very good chance in the PO.

[Rocalcio]

Laker down big! we're in! now lets see if we can over take NO! Give me that game against the Clip, win or lose!

Honestly, we've being playing great for the last month, the team is fully confident and we just beat Denver without many starters. Everything can happen in the Play In.

[RC_Drunkford]

Hope Pop starts resting guys now that the play-in is a lock. No need to win these last 3 games to have a worse pick

[Dejounte]

Hope Pop starts resting guys now that the play-in is a lock. No need to win these last 3 games to have a worse pick

Getting Murray back up to speed and giving him rhythm heading into the play-in might be important to them. Or else he’s going to be rusty as fuck and might hurt the team. I think he will get over it quick though since he’s so competitive.

[spurspl]

damn it, another year another missed opportunity to draft a franchise player...

[exstatic]

New Orleans can swap positions in 2023 and then choose either the Lakers 2024 or 2025 pick. The next Lakers first round pick without strings attached won’t be until 2026.

Could be 2027, if N.O. opts for the 2025 FRP. You can only trade your FRP every other year.

[Dex]

What's the 1% chance they keep their pick about?

I think there is still a slight chance it would go to Memphis if the Lakers pick ends up being higher than 10, but that seems unlikely at this point. Either way, the Lakers don't get to keep it.

[Russ]

Mission accomplished, Spurs, now it's time to rest for the play-in (you can't call it tanking because they've already accomplished their play-in goal and, anyway, I hate tanking).

If the Spurs lose their last three games, they'll finish no worse than 9th in lottery position (with an extremely outside chance at 8th).

If they win some games they could finish as low as 12th in lottery position -- that's a three position swing. To quantify it, the 9th team has a 20.2% chance at a top 4 pick; the 12th team has a 7.2% chance. That's an actual 13% increase in your chances from 12th to 9th position (or as Zeus might say, an almost 200% increase).

Right now, they're in the sweet spot. They need to stay there.

[Dejounte]

When people mention McD as hurting the team, people forget Eubanks was a starter for nearly a quarter of the season. He was a huge net negative. Probably the worst center in mankind

[Chinook]

What? Drew has been starting for Portland for weeks now, and they're just a perfectly ordinary--

https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1349851935650828294/pu/img/-r12LyE3LYH4AFHq?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Robz4000]

I think there is still a slight chance it would go to Memphis if the Lakers pick ends up being higher than 10, but that seems unlikely at this point. Either way, the Lakers don't get to keep it.

Knew about that part, thought it was being referenced that there was a scenario where the Lakers kept their pick. Good news all around tbh :tu

[lefty]

So if we make the playoffs we would be playing Suns or Grizz in first round right?

I would rather the play the Suns, the Grizz would whack us lol

[Rocalcio]

So if we make the playoffs we would be playing Suns or Grizz in first round right?

I would rather the play the Suns, the Grizz would whack us lol


It would be the first in the West, so Phoenix, since the winner of the 7-8 spots Play In game will play the second in the West. Basically, we play NO, if we win we play the loser of MIN/LAC for a chance to play Phoenix, and the winner of the MIN/LAC game goes to Memphis.

[duncan2150]

So if we make the playoffs we would be playing Suns or Grizz in first round right?

I would rather the play the Suns, the Grizz would whack us lol

Suns in the first

[The Truth #6]

Any idea yet who we would play in the play in? I'm guessing it's too early to say.

[Mr. Body]

Any idea yet who we would play in the play in? I'm guessing it's too early to say.

Pelicans.

[Ariel]

Any idea yet who we would play in the play in? I'm guessing it's too early to say.
Pelicans for sure, and then the loser of Clippers vs Minnesota (could be Denver or Utah too).

[duncan2150]

Any idea yet who we would play in the play in? I'm guessing it's too early to say.

We'll play the Pels, it's just the 9th and 10th who needs to be determined.

[Drom John]

When people mention McD as hurting the team, people forget Eubanks was a starter for nearly a quarter of the season. He was a huge net negative. Probably the worst center in mankind

FiveThirtyEight Raptor Centers, minimum 1071 minutes (their default)

Bottom 5 WAR

47) Isaiah Stewart
48) Richaun Holmes
50) Chimezie Metu
51) Drew Eubanks
52) Marcus Morris, Sr.

That felt good to type.

[Mr. Body]

Wow, Lakers lost seven games in a row. Seven. No fight in them at all.

[exstatic]

Wow, Lakers lost seven games in a row. Seven. No fight in them at all.

They’re legit terrible. I’m sure that LeBron thought he would be the exception, but Father Time is undefeated.

[ginobilized]

They’re legit terrible. I’m sure that LeBron thought he would be the exception, but Father Time is undefeated.

Probably true, but, LeBron's play is not the real problem with the Lakers. He is playing at an unprecedented level for his age and position.
They have an ill-fitting roster for these times in the NBA. Management is the problem there.

[BatManu20]

So if we make the playoffs we would be playing Suns or Grizz in first round right?

I would rather the play the Suns, the Grizz would whack us lol

They’d both whack us tbh.

[Dex]

Probably true, but, LeBron's play is not the real problem with the Lakers. He is playing at an unprecedented level for his age and position.
They have an ill-fitting roster for these times in the NBA. Management is the problem there.

This. I will give LeBron credit that he has done about all that can expected of him at his age. They had him playing center at times, for god's sake. And he still has a chance at the scoring title.

Their problems really fall on Davis not being able to stay healthy (nothing new), Westbrook being a terrible fit and not knowing what to do when he doesn't have the ball in his hands to chase trip-dubs, and their role players either being washed-up vets or cast-offs from other teams. Oh, and Vogel doesn't seem to have much of a gameplan other than "go out there and give the ball to LeBron" and it shows.

[BatManu20]

Probably true, but, LeBron's play is not the real problem with the Lakers. He is playing at an unprecedented level for his age and position.
They have an ill-fitting roster for these times in the NBA. Management is the problem there.

Lebron’s playing great offensively for his age obviously but his late game stat-padding combined with playing on such a bad team makes his #’s look better than they really are.

But more importantly, he’s one of the worst defenders in the league at this point of his career and gives virtually zero effort on that end anymore. And the lakers playing him at the C position with Davis out was beyond stupid. It was basically a layup line out there.

But yea, he’s on a bad team (that he built) and their best player can’t stay healthy. And Westbrook looked like an absolute scrub for 75% of the season. But it’s clear they gave up a while ago. 7 straight losses in must-win games..? Yea that’s trash. Zero heart in that team. Mentally they’re in Cancun

[JPB]

Probably true, but, LeBron's play is not the real problem with the Lakers. He is playing at an unprecedented level for his age and position.
They have an ill-fitting roster for these times in the NBA. Management is the problem there.

Indeed, James is clearly not their main issue. They're whining that they couldn't line up their best players on the floor long enough... but injuries happen to a lot of teams and they find a way. Cleveland lost a bunch of players and still competed...I mean 7 fucking losses in a row while you play to survive.

It's clearly about competing but this roster isn't that good past their "big 3" and they just dont seem to have any fight nor accountability in them.

[BatManu20]

Hoping we lose to Minny tomorrow tbh. Don’t wanna pass New Orleans in the standings in case we miss the playoffs. They still have to play Memphis and GSW.

Also want Minnesota to win out so they can potentially pass Chicago and Toronto in the standings which would push our pick from the Raps from 20 to 18.

[JPB]

Lebron’s playing great offensively for his age obviously but his late game stat-padding combined with playing on such a bad team makes his #’s look better than they really are.

But more importantly, he’s one of the worst defenders in the league at this point of his career and gives virtually zero effort on that end anymore. And the lakers playing him at the C position with Davis out was beyond stupid. It was basically a layup line out there.

But yea, he’s on a bad team (that he built) and their best player can’t stay healthy. And Westbrook looked like an absolute scrub for 75% of the season. But it’s clear they gave up a while ago. 7 straight losses in must-win games..? Yea that’s trash. Zero heart in that team. Mentally they’re in Cancun

This roster clearly lacks defense specialists and blue collars who will make up for James (and 47M man Westbrook) not giving a fuck on defense anymore, which should be expected for every star in their late years.... There's no cohesion in that team and when no one wants to make the effort for the other... You get that Lake shitshow...

[Mr. Body]

This. I will give LeBron credit that he has done about all that can expected of him at his age. They had him playing center at times, for god's sake. And he still has a chance at the scoring title.

Their problems really fall on Davis not being able to stay healthy (nothing new), Westbrook being a terrible fit and not knowing what to do when he doesn't have the ball in his hands to chase trip-dubs, and their role players either being washed-up vets or cast-offs from other teams. Oh, and Vogel doesn't seem to have much of a gameplan other than "go out there and give the ball to LeBron" and it shows.

To me the biggest problem was Anthony Davis. A softer player you may never see. Putting his fragility aside, he should have been carrying this team. He just turned 29 years old, for fuck's sake! With a team full of geezers, he should have been carrying the team in the regular season but he didn't even do this when he could. I've never seen a player of his supposed stature be such a beta. Hell, he wasn't even a beta.

[Ocotillo]

To me the biggest problem was Anthony Davis. A softer player you may never see. Putting his fragility aside, he should have been carrying this team. He just turned 29 years old, for fuck's sake! With a team full of geezers, he should have been carrying the team in the regular season but he didn't even do this when he could. I've never seen a player of his supposed stature be such a beta. Hell, he wasn't even a beta.

Yeah, who the hell put him on that list of the 75 all time best?

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I think Lebron knew they were screwed and so he sat out these last couple of games rather than suffer the humiliation of being on the floor with AD and the Lakers still sucking ass.

[offset formation]

Looking at the potential play in matchups and I'm thinking the Spurs might just find themselves in the playoffs and lose out on the lottery pick.

The only team I don't think they can beat is Minnesota, so assuming they win their first game, I'd almost give favorable odds that the Spurs win both games, assuming Nephew doesn't come back.

Wondering what the average Spurs fan would think of blowing our chances in the lottery and having like the 15th pick? Likely have the 20th to 23rd and the 26th too.

Better to try to trade up and get a potential game changer or take 3 picks in the 1st? What do you do if you're PATFO?

[JPB]

Yeah, who the hell put him on that list of the 75 all time best?

Wait, he's on the list? For real?

Wow, I could give you 100 players in history better than this guy.

[JPB]

I think Lebron knew they were screwed and so he sat out these last couple of games rather than suffer the humiliation of being on the floor with AD and the Lakers still sucking ass.

Possible indeed.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, who the hell put him on that list of the 75 all time best?

ESPN.

[lefty20]

Wait, he's on the list? For real?

Wow, I could give you 100 players in history better than this guy.

There were talks on Lakersground and RealGM about whether he's better than Timmy after 2020 :lol

[Drom John]

There were talks on Lakersground and RealGM about whether he's better than Timmy after 2020 :lol

Of course AD is better than Tim after 2020.
Now, Tim is only good for warming up our centers.

[cjw]

Hoping we lose to Minny tomorrow tbh. Don’t wanna pass New Orleans in the standings in case we miss the playoffs. They still have to play Memphis and GSW.

Also want Minnesota to win out so they can potentially pass Chicago and Toronto in the standings which would push our pick from the Raps from 20 to 18.

Minnesota will certainly try to win its last two in hopes of catching Denver. But Denver would need to lose out … including game 82 against the Lakers

[The Truth #6]

AD being overrated and Lebron for being a horrible GM are the main issues, which led to...Westbrook instead of DDR? Horrible. Amazing that the team owners didn't want to make further horrible moves and enable Lebron even more, but probably because they can already tell that he's out the door talking about playing with his son on a team. But what to do? It's not in their nature to lean into a rebuild I wouldn't think, but trading Lebron and AD make the most sense to me.

[TD 21]

I‘m not talking about the Lakers, I am talking about what he did as a First option on the Pelicans where he played with Jrue Holiday and did literally nothing. And don’t make excuses about injuries when AD is the one who‘s always injured.

Oh but he took the Lakers to the championship as a 2nd option in the BUBBLE. Put a big * behind that since you want to talk about context :lmao Now he can‘t even take them to the play in. GTFOH

I've followed this league for 25 years and seen 4 (Jordan, O'Neal, Duncan, James) capable of taking virtually any roster to the playoffs. Holding anyone to that standard is ridiculous.

He was at worst the co-first option and the circumstances were equal for all teams, which means no asterisk.

:lmao Other than possibly the start of this season, he hasn't been healthy since genius. He's definitely fragile and more Robinson/Garnett than Olajuwon/Duncan in terms of being better as a finisher than creator, but the criticism he receives is mostly because of his affiliation with the Lakers.

He's never pulled the shit Scumbag has and just did something else the latter never would, by coming off a significant injury, clearly still hobbled and playing out the string in a lost season instead of hiding from the embarrassment.



I've never seen a player of his supposed stature be such a beta. Hell, he wasn't even a beta.

And you call yourself a Spurs fan.

[K...]

derozan to LA was always a respect issue i think. Chicago had assets to do a sign and trade and give him fair money. LA did not. We will never know if Derozan would take vet min to play with lebron, but we can be pretty sure derozan is pissed they didn't even ask.

[poopbox]

derozan to LA was always a respect issue i think. Chicago had assets to do a sign and trade and give him fair money. LA did not. We will never know if Derozan would take vet min to play with lebron, but we can be pretty sure derozan is pissed they didn't even ask.


The story floating around is he wanted a 3rd year and the lakers would only do 2

[lefty]

It would be the first in the West, so Phoenix, since the winner of the 7-8 spots Play In game will play the second in the West. Basically, we play NO, if we win we play the loser of MIN/LAC for a chance to play Phoenix, and the winner of the MIN/LAC game goes to Memphis.


Suns in the first
Ah ok

[R. DeMurre]

FiveThirtyEight Raptor Centers, minimum 1071 minutes (their default)

Bottom 5 WAR

47) Isaiah Stewart
48) Richaun Holmes
50) Chimezie Metu
51) Drew Eubanks
52) Marcus Morris, Sr.

That felt good to type.

Well, if you're going by that metric:

Fivethirtyeight RAPTOR Small Forwards
Bottom 5 WAR

Terrence Ross
Darius Bazley
CJ Elleby
Jordan Nwora
Doug McDermott

[exstatic]

Probably true, but, LeBron's play is not the real problem with the Lakers. He is playing at an unprecedented level for his age and position.
They have an ill-fitting roster for these times in the NBA. Management is the problem there.

LeBron IS management. In the past, he’s taken worse rosters further, but the first crack was when he felt the need to sprit AD from N.O. He knew that he could no longer carry a team to a championship. Now, he can’t even carry one to the play in. It’s not about level of play, it’s about deteriorating health and durability. That’s how Father Time gets you, and why he’s undefeated.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Wondering what the average Spurs fan would think of blowing our chances in the lottery and having like the 15th pick? Likely have the 20th to 23rd and the 26th too.

Better to try to trade up and get a potential game changer or take 3 picks in the 1st? What do you do if you're PATFO?


The averge fan would hate it. But at least half the people here would cheer for it.

I think it's really unlikely that the Spurs would keep all three players from their first round picks. And I don't see any team trading the 1 or 2 draft pick this year for later picks in the same draft. The one thing I really hope they don't do is send the Rap's or C's pick out for a future protected pick that winds up conveying as a second rounder later.

[cjw]

The averge fan would hate it. But at least half the people here would cheer for it.

I think it's really unlikely that the Spurs would keep all three players from their first round picks. And I don't see any team trading the 1 or 2 draft pick this year for later picks in the same draft. The one thing I really hope they don't do is send the Rap's or C's pick out for a future protected pick that winds up conveying as a second rounder later.

I don’t see them keeping all three picks.

Heck, in a different sport, the Eagles just downsized from three to two firsts (punting a year and picking up assets) mainly because it gets complicated to extend everyone on same schedule. And it’s only exacerbated in NBA where you only have so many roster spots … not an issue in NFL.

The roster is already somewhat crowded so they need to make targeted upgrades and clear some logjams. They have plenty of assets - picks, solid players and palatable contracts - to make that happen. Oh, and cap space.

(On a related topic, no idea what OKC is going to do with all of its picks)

[MultiTroll]

Wondering what the average Spurs fan would think of blowing our chances in the lottery and having like the 15th pick?
Kawhi and Greek Freak both #15 picks.

We can dream, right? :lol

Update: Steve Nash and Brent Barrdawg too.

[Dex]

LeBron IS management.

Bingo. Lakers can't point the finger at roster construction and then act like LeBron isn't at least somewhat to blame since he's helping call the shots.

Magic Johnson recently shared on ESPN that he wanted DeRozan, and DeRozan had called him to tell him he wanted to go to L.A. Magic shared with the Laker's FO and assumed it was a done then, then went on vacation. At that point, LeBron started talking with Westbrook and went above Magic's head to force Russ on the team.

Dude made this bed, and now he gets to sleep in it. Lakers aren't trading Davis, and they ain't moving Westbrook's contract without giving up more draft capital which they don't really have. Dude is a declining player who (I believe) will be the highest paid player in the NBA next year. He's already dropping hints about how he'd like to play with Steph.

LeBron's only other recourse is to force a trade himself, and I wouldn't put it past him. That's been his MO....bleed an organization dry for wins, then bounce when the assets run out.

[Dex]

I don’t see them keeping all three picks.

Heck, in a different sport, the Eagles just downsized from three to two firsts (punting a year and picking up assets) mainly because it gets complicated to extend everyone on same schedule. And it’s only exacerbated in NBA where you only have so many roster spots … not an issue in NFL.

The roster is already somewhat crowded so they need to make targeted upgrades and clear some logjams. They have plenty of assets - picks, solid players and palatable contracts - to make that happen. Oh, and cap space.

(On a related topic, no idea what OKC is going to do with all of its picks)

OKC about to draft an entirely new team around SGA :lol

[offset formation]

The averge fan would hate it. But at least half the people here would cheer for it.

I think it's really unlikely that the Spurs would keep all three players from their first round picks. And I don't see any team trading the 1 or 2 draft pick this year for later picks in the same draft. The one thing I really hope they don't do is send the Rap's or C's pick out for a future protected pick that winds up conveying as a second rounder later.

Agreed on all points.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

(On a related topic, no idea what OKC is going to do with all of its picks)

That's a great point. Maybe trade them for future firsts?

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

To me the biggest problem was Anthony Davis. A softer player you may never see. Putting his fragility aside, he should have been carrying this team. He just turned 29 years old, for fuck's sake! With a team full of geezers, he should have been carrying the team in the regular season but he didn't even do this when he could. I've never seen a player of his supposed stature be such a beta. Hell, he wasn't even a beta.

AD is such wuss. I've watched him play in person a few times when he was in NO, and he used to get so much attention from trainers over the course of a game. He gets a lot of owies during games that don't get the attention of the cameras. I'm surprised they don't have his mom sitting on the sideline to kiss every boo-boo during time outs.

[CGD]

AD is such wuss. I've watched him play in person a few times when he was in NO, and he used to get so much attention from trainers over the course of a game. He gets a lot of owies during games that don't get the attention of the cameras. I'm surprised they don't have his mom sitting on the sideline to kiss every boo-boo during time outs.

Zach Lowe or Simmons made the point on a pod that stuck with me: the three bigs in the running for MVP now are this dude’s peer group. Amazing that there is such a huge drop off between this guys (at top 75 player) and any of those three.

[BatManu20]

Goddammit. Spurs are winning Saturday.


1512599193503862786

[Robz4000]

Goddammit. Spurs are winning Saturday.


1512599193503862786

It's gonna get rescinded imo.

[BatManu20]

It's gonna get rescinded imo.

After seeing the reply of what happened, I think you might be right. Hope so cause that was pathetic.

[Mr. Body]

Doncic technical has in fact been rescinded; he'll be playing tomorrow.

[Leetonidas]

Memphis dropped 55 in the third on the Pelicans :wow

[Ariel]

That's a great point. Maybe trade them for future firsts?
That's not a problem. So far they're stockpiling assets and rolling the dice in the draft. Once they've acquired enough talent and their core has mature enough, they use the remaining picks to get them whatever pieces are missing and they're set for over a decade. They have the patience, the brains and the shamelessness to pull it off. And I hope that once they are there, they all bolt and it goes down in flames like it happened with their last superstar core (KD, Harden, etc.).

[exstatic]

That's not a problem. So far they're stockpiling assets and rolling the dice in the draft. Once they've acquired enough talent and their core has mature enough, they use the remaining picks to get them whatever pieces are missing and they're set for over a decade. They have the patience, the brains and the shamelessness to pull it off. And I hope that once they are there, they all bolt and it goes down in flames like it happened with their last superstar core (KD, Harden, etc.).

It’s gone on too long. They’re used to losing, and being expected to lose. That’s a difficult stench to wash off.

[Ariel]

It’s gone on too long. They’re used to losing, and being expected to lose. That’s a difficult stench to wash off.
I agree. But that's what they're going for, and there aren't many ways to prevent that it the short term. But long term it's definitely harmful, since players are not pawns and I doubt many stars would feel comfortable with Presti's games, jumping along as he's pulling their strings.

[cjw]

Lose against the Mavs (but avoid a blowout) and the Spurs will be tied for the worst record of any team with a positive point differential on the season. Ever.

A lot better than their record. Whatever happens the rest of the way, the future is bright. And maybe lotto balls will fall the right way after the loss to NO or Minny/LA.

[Seventyniner]

Lose against the Mavs (but avoid a blowout) and the Spurs will be tied for the worst record of any team with a positive point differential on the season. Ever.

What a stat.

The Spurs were +26 on the season coming into tonight, and are now at +20: 9159 points scored, 9139 allowed.

With Doncic back and every incentive to lose, though, the Spurs very well could end up being blown out by more than 20. But if the end of the bench can fight like they did tonight they could easily keep it close enough to keep the season-long differential positive.

I think the fact that the Spurs have played better than their record would indicate is a great omen for next season. Add in a top 10 pick, a couple more firsts in the 20-25 range, and maybe a decent FA splash and the Spurs have real potential to challenge for a top 6 seed next season.

[exstatic]

I think if they just make a transition foul 1+ the ball, we’ll be WAY better next year. Our pace was like 3rd or 4th in the league this year, but too many breaks were stopped by cheap fouls. Oh, an my final tweak to the rule would be that anyone on the floor can be the FT shooter.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I think if they just make a transition foul 1+ the ball, we’ll be WAY better next year. Our pace was like 3rd or 4th in the league this year, but too many breaks were stopped by cheap fouls. Oh, an my final tweak to the rule would be that anyone on the floor can be the FT shooter.

All teams suffer from these, they'll probably change the rule.

The biggest imbalance this season has been that Spurs are 2nd in points in the paint but bottom 5 in free throw attempts. A little more respect from the refs would go a long way.

[Gagnrath]

All teams suffer from these, they'll probably change the rule.

The biggest imbalance this season has been that Spurs are 2nd in points in the paint but bottom 5 in free throw attempts. A little more respect from the refs would go a long way.

They are also a fairly poor team from the line as a whole. Coaching stressing free throws in camp and preseason would be a help.

[Russ]

Mission accomplished, Spurs, now it's time to rest for the play-in (you can't call it tanking because they've already accomplished their play-in goal and, anyway, I hate tanking).

If the Spurs lose their last three games, they'll finish no worse than 9th in lottery position (with an extremely outside chance at 8th).

If they win some games they could finish as low as 12th in lottery position -- that's a three position swing. To quantify it, the 9th team has a 20.2% chance at a top 4 pick; the 12th team has a 7.2% chance. That's an actual 13% increase in your chances from 12th to 9th position (or as Zeus might say, an almost 200% increase).

Right now, they're in the sweet spot. They need to stay there.

We did it Spurs!

There are no ties, no coin flips, no worries.

The Spurs are in sole possession of the 9th lottery spot -- a 20.2% chance for a top four pick. No ifs, ands, or buts.

[Ariel]

We did it Spurs!

There are no ties, no coin flips, no worries.

The Spurs are in sole possession of the 9th lottery spot -- a 20.2% chance for a top four pick. No ifs, ands, or buts.
Actually, that's ONLY IF the Spurs lose the play in. If they beat NO & Minny/Clippers, they pick at 15. That's as big an if as I could think of.

[exstatic]

We did it Spurs!

There are no ties, no coin flips, no worries.

The Spurs are in sole possession of the 9th lottery spot -- a 20.2% chance for a top four pick. No ifs, ands, or buts.

Unless we win the next two games, in which case, we'll pick 15th.

[Russ]

Unless we win the next two games, in which case, we'll pick 15th.
Not to repeat something that goes without saying but . . .