Who to root for

[Seventyniner]

The Spurs will get the first round picks from both the Raptors and Celtics this year, along with their own natural pick. That means we should be rooting for all three of those teams to lose as many games as possible to improve those draft slots.

The Spurs are locked into the West 9/10 play-in, and both the Celtics and Raptors will make the top 6 and avoid the East play-in, though each will want to win to improve playoff seeding.

As such, for April 7 we should be rooting for:

Wolves over Spurs
Sixers over Raptors
Bucks over Celtics

We should also root for:

Pelicans over Blazers (increasing the chance the Spurs' draft slot stays above the Pelicans)
Warriors over Lakers (same but for Warriors compared to Celtics)
Nuggets over Grizzlies (same but for Nuggets compared to Raptors)

[Seventyniner]

So far the Sixers and Raptors are tied, Spurs were down early but have cut the deficit to 2, and the Bucks lead by 10. Lots to watch for! Get the popcorn out.

[Seventyniner]

So far we have one bad result (Sixers lost to Raptors), but the rest are all good.

Bucks beat the Celtics.
Spurs down big to the Wolves.
Pelicans up big over the Blazers.
Nuggets up big over the Grizzlies.

[Seventyniner]

Looking to Friday's games, there are clear teams to root for.

Bucks over Pistons (to stay ahead of the Celtics)
Rockets over Raptors (fat chance, but we can hope)
Mavericks over Blazers (to stay ahead of the Celtics)
Jazz over Suns (to stay ahead of the Raptors and maybe catch up to the Celtics)
Lakers over Thunder (Spurs have the tiebreaker over the Lakers for the play-in spot, but if they finish with the same record the Spurs could get the higher draft slot via coin flip)

A Spurs/Lakers tie requires the Spurs to lose out and the Lakers to win out, though, so more realistically:

Thunder over Lakers (for the lulz)

[Spursfanfromafar]

Looking to Friday's games, there are clear teams to root for.

Bucks over Pistons (to stay ahead of the Celtics)
Rockets over Raptors (fat chance, but we can hope)
Mavericks over Blazers (to stay ahead of the Celtics)
Jazz over Suns (to stay ahead of the Raptors and maybe catch up to the Celtics)
Lakers over Thunder (Spurs have the tiebreaker over the Lakers for the play-in spot, but if they finish with the same record the Spurs could get the higher draft slot via coin flip)

A Spurs/Lakers tie requires the Spurs to lose out and the Lakers to win out, though, so more realistically:

Thunder over Lakers (for the lulz)

The Lakers lost to the Warriors and are now 3 games behind. The highest position that the Spurs can get now on the draft order is 9th. Here's hoping that they get lucky in the lottery and move into the top 4..

[exstatic]

The Lakers lost to the Warriors and are now 3 games behind. The highest position that the Spurs can get now on the draft order is 9th. Here's hoping that they get lucky in the lottery and move into the top 4..

Uh, no. We’re one game behind the Knicks and Wiz with two games to go. If we win two and they both lose two, we’d pick 11th, or, if New Orleans was in the mix and lost two, we’d be in a coin flip for 11/12.

[duncan2150]

Uh, no. We’re one game behind the Knicks and Wiz with two games to go. If we win two and they both lose two, we’d pick 11th, or, if New Orleans was in the mix and lost two, we’d be in a coin flip for 11/12.

i think he's right, he said the "highest position on the draft order" and you talk about the lowest .....

[BatManu20]

Knicks will likely lose their last 2 games (Wizards, Raptors). Spurs need to lose at least one of their remaining two tbh.

[duncan2150]

Knicks will likely lose their last 2 games (Wizards, Raptors). Spurs need to lose at least one of their remaining two tbh.

With a B2B to finish they will probably rest some players, i think they will lose one at least.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I'm rooting for Memphis over Boston in the final game of the season. Not only because it'd mean a better Spurs pick but it'd push Boston to 4th and having to play Toronto with allegedly a few important players not vaccinated. Wish Philly had won in Toronto but Harden is so bad these days.

[mo7888]

I'm rooting for Memphis over Boston in the final game of the season. Not only because it'd mean a better Spurs pick but it'd push Boston to 4th and having to play Toronto with allegedly a few important players not vaccinated. Wish Philly had won in Toronto but Harden is so bad these days.

It's quite possible that there were no winners in that Philly-Brooklyn trade..

[Mr. Body]

It's quite possible that there were no winners in that Philly-Brooklyn trade..

I'd say Brooklyn came out ahead. Harden was sucking and causing issues. They got two needed role-players in Curry and Drummond and a couple draft picks. Simmons may be good for them going forward. The problem is what they gave up to get Harden in the first place.

[mo7888]

I'd say Brooklyn came out ahead. Harden was sucking and causing issues. They got two needed role-players in Curry and Drummond and a couple draft picks. Simmons may be good for them going forward. The problem is what they gave up to get Harden in the first place.

Yea...Brooklyn probably got the 'less worse' part of the deal... and if Simmons ever plays it has a chance to be a net positive.... As of today though I can really call either side as winning it...could change though...

[exstatic]

i think he's right, he said the "highest position on the draft order" and you talk about the lowest .....

I plead insufficient coffee…

[MultiTroll]

These other games.
Are the Bucks coasting the last 2?
Nets need to beat Cleveland or are both in?

[Ariel]

These is the summary of the current pick situation:
https://i.ibb.co/JK7LwRJ/picks.png
Basically:
The first pick could be as high as 9, with Washington and New York as primary competitors. It looks like it should be at 9.
The second pick (Toronto) could be as high 19, with Utah and Denver as primary competitors. A tie with Utah and/or Denver seems likely, so the pick would fall between 20 and 22 (table is wrong in that reads 20-21 when it should be 20-22)
The third pick (Boston) could be as high as 23, with Philadelphia, Dallas, Milwaukee and Golden State as primary competitors. A tie with Philly seems likely, so the pick would fall between 23 and 24.

[Mr. Body]

Yea...Brooklyn probably got the 'less worse' part of the deal... and if Simmons ever plays it has a chance to be a net positive.... As of today though I can really call either side as winning it...could change though...

I think it's a positive even without Simmons. Harden is due an enormous extention and he's clearly on a massive decline. Getting two players and picks for him was good return. Adding Simmons is even better.

[JPB]

Add Harden to the list of guys who never understood what the concept of team sport was about.

[Seventyniner]

A couple of annoying late-game results last night, with the Rockets and Jazz blowing late leads. Now we are potentially bad coinflips away from the Raptors' draft slot falling behind the Jazz and Nuggets, which would give the Spurs the #23 pick.

Only two games tonight that can make a difference.

Sixers already beat the Pacers, a good result because it means the Sixers can at least tie the Celtics if both teams win their last game, giving the Spurs a coinflip to get the Celtics pick slot ahead of the Sixers.

Warriors over Spurs (for the Spurs draft slot to stay ahead of the Knicks and Wizards)
Grizzlies over Pelicans (for the Spurs draft slot to stay ahead of the Pelicans)


Looking forward to Sunday, the Spurs really need to throw the game against Dallas, which would ensure both that the Spurs draft ahead of the Knicks in the lottery and the Celtics slot is ahead of the Mavs. Doncic will be out, but looking at the Spurs "injury" report for tonight, they are not above sitting damn near the whole starting lineup.

The Mavs have the tiebreaker over the Warriors and could rise to the 3 seed if they beat the Spurs and the Warriors manage to lose to the Pelicans, so I expect the Mavs to play hard. The Pelicans won't have anything to play for, but both games (DAL/SA, GS/NO) happen at the same time so the Warriors can't just sleepwalk through the game.

[R. DeMurre]

:lolI think at this point, I'll just surrender to the fates and not root for anything regarding play-in position, draft potential, or any of the rest! There's no emoji of a resting seated Buddha available on the spurstalk drop down menu, so I'll just reference that with words...

[JPB]

Good stuff 79er, for us lazy farts.

But anyway just lose out and we should be good. I see a Mavs blowout victory with a full 4th quarter garbage time.

[baseline bum]

It's quite possible that there were no winners in that Philly-Brooklyn trade..

:toast Best case scenario

[Ariel]

which would ensure both that the Spurs draft ahead of the Knicks in the lottery and the Celtics slot is ahead of the Mavs. Doncic will be out, but looking at the Spurs "injury" report for tonight, they are not above sitting damn near the whole starting lineup.

The Mavs have the tiebreaker over the Warriors and could rise to the 3 seed if they beat the Spurs and the Warriors manage to lose to the Pelicans, so I expect the Mavs to play hard. The Pelicans won't have anything to play for, but both games (DAL/SA, GS/NO) happen at the same time so the Warriors can't just sleepwalk through the game.
Fortunately Luka is back in! whew... and circumstances as you say would have you believe teams we need to win should try and do so. Fingers crossed.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

For the games on the last day :

Wizards over Charlotte - unlikely but it'd free up the Spurs to play hard against Dallas. A Memphis win over Boston would be very helpful as well. Spurs probably don't care as much as ST about the lottery odds but I'd like them to play the full rotation and prepare for the play-in game
Bucks over Cleveland - secures Bucks over Boston, but there'll be an interesting dynamic with the 2-4 positions in the east especially with Nets looking like the 7th seed
Memphis over Boston - very important for the Spurs, likely pushes Boston's pick to 23
New York over Toronto - also very important, Toronto's pick would probably land at 20
76ers over Detroit - for the chance of Philly going above Boston
Denver over Lakers - so that Denver end up at least tied with Toronto. Also because Lakers
Utah over Portland - so that Utah end up at least tied with Toronto

If everything goes right for the Spurs, i.e. Wizards winning and Boston losing, then we can root for them to win without sacrificing lottery balls and Boston's pick.

The east 2-4 fight would be interesting. In a 3-way tie Boston would be 2nd, Bucks 3rd and Philly 4th. I think Philly can't get 2nd in any scenario and it's possible they'd be more comfortable being 4th rather than 3rd, so they may not go all out to win against Detroit. Nets projecting to be 7th is big because both Milwaukee and Boston would probably prefer facing Bulls in the first round.

[Biggems]

For the games on the last day :

Wizards over Charlotte - unlikely but it'd free up the Spurs to play hard against Dallas. A Memphis win over Boston would be very helpful as well. Spurs probably don't care as much as ST about the lottery odds but I'd like them to play the full rotation and prepare for the play-in game
Bucks over Cleveland - secures Bucks over Boston, but there'll be an interesting dynamic with the 2-4 positions in the east especially with Nets looking like the 7th seed
Memphis over Boston - very important for the Spurs, likely pushes Boston's pick to 23
New York over Toronto - also very important, Toronto's pick would probably land at 20
76ers over Detroit - for the chance of Philly going above Boston
Denver over Lakers - so that Denver end up at least tied with Toronto. Also because Lakers
Utah over Portland - so that Utah end up at least tied with Toronto

If everything goes right for the Spurs, i.e. Wizards winning and Boston losing, then we can root for them to win without sacrificing lottery balls and Boston's pick.

The east 2-4 fight would be interesting. In a 3-way tie Boston would be 2nd, Bucks 3rd and Philly 4th. I think Philly can't get 2nd in any scenario and it's possible they'd be more comfortable being 4th rather than 3rd, so they may not go all out to win against Detroit. Nets projecting to be 7th is big because both Milwaukee and Boston would probably prefer facing Bulls in the first round.

Yep, the best we can hope for is 23, 20, and 9 going into the draft lottery. That isn't as good as I was hoping, but it could have been worse, and still could be.

What happens if Milwaukee and Dallas lose, but Boston and Philly win? I know you said Boston is the 2 seed in the East, but what about the entire association? Who gets the higher draft pick, Boston or Dallas? Either way, the worst the pick could be is 26. As for Toronto, the worst the pick could be is 22. As for our pick, the worst it can be is 10, as long as we lose the play-in game. Basically, 2 more losses and we are guaranteed the 9 seed going into the lottery.

Good thing is, the Knicks game should be almost over by the time we take the floor. We will know whether or not we can win and stay at 9 or need to lose to stay at 9.

[duncan2150]

What happens if Milwaukee and Dallas lose, but Boston and Philly win? I know you said Boston is the 2 seed in the East, but what about the entire association? Who gets the higher draft pick, Boston or Dallas?

If Dallas, Boston and Milwaukee are all at 51 W 31 L then the coin flip will decides their positions in the draft.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

What happens if Milwaukee and Dallas lose, but Boston and Philly win? I know you said Boston is the 2 seed in the East, but what about the entire association? Who gets the higher draft pick, Boston or Dallas?

What seed teams with identical records are doesn't matter for their picks - in the scenario where Boston, Philly, Dallas and Milwaukee all end up with a 51-31 record, there will be coin flips for picks 23-26.

[exstatic]

Yep, the best we can hope for is 23, 20, and 9 going into the draft lottery. That isn't as good as I was hoping, but it could have been worse, and still could be.

What happens if Milwaukee and Dallas lose, but Boston and Philly win? I know you said Boston is the 2 seed in the East, but what about the entire association? Who gets the higher draft pick, Boston or Dallas? Either way, the worst the pick could be is 26. As for Toronto, the worst the pick could be is 22. As for our pick, the worst it can be is 10, as long as we lose the play-in game. Basically, 2 more losses and we are guaranteed the 9 seed going into the lottery.

Good thing is, the Knicks game should be almost over by the time we take the floor. We will know whether or not we can win and stay at 9 or need to lose to stay at 9.

Draft pick ties are decided by coin flips, not the standings. I remember a year where we were tied w/ Portland, and they had the tiebreaker, getting the higher seed, but we lost the coin flip and they picked before us. I believer our last two lottery picks were decided by coin flips, one won, and one lost.

[mystargtr34]

If Milwaukee Boston and Philadelphia end up in a 3 way tie, wouldn’t the Bucks get the 2 seed because they would have the best record amongst the 3 teams in head to head games?

[XDT76]

Yep, the best we can hope for is 23, 20, and 9 going into the draft lottery. That isn't as good as I was hoping, but it could have been worse, and still could be.

What happens if Milwaukee and Dallas lose, but Boston and Philly win? I know you said Boston is the 2 seed in the East, but what about the entire association? Who gets the higher draft pick, Boston or Dallas? Either way, the worst the pick could be is 26. As for Toronto, the worst the pick could be is 22. As for our pick, the worst it can be is 10, as long as we lose the play-in game. Basically, 2 more losses and we are guaranteed the 9 seed going into the lottery.

Good thing is, the Knicks game should be almost over by the time we take the floor. We will know whether or not we can win and stay at 9 or need to lose to stay at 9.

We will not catch Knicks (36 wins) our concern should be Wizards, they are on 35 win and we are 34.

[exstatic]

If Milwaukee Boston and Philadelphia end up in a 3 way tie, wouldn’t the Bucks get the 2 seed because they would have the best record amongst the 3 teams in head to head games?


Draft pick ties are decided by coin flips, not the standings. I remember a year where we were tied w/ Portland, and they had the tiebreaker, getting the higher seed, but we lost the coin flip and they picked before us. I believer our last two lottery picks were decided by coin flips, one won, and one lost.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

If Milwaukee Boston and Philadelphia end up in a 3 way tie, wouldn’t the Bucks get the 2 seed because they would have the best record amongst the 3 teams in head to head games?

In 3-way ties (or more) the first separator is division winners - in this case Milwaukee and Boston, which slots Philly at 4th. After that Boston have the tiebreaker over Milwaukee for 2nd.

[Seventyniner]

For the games on the last day :

Wizards over Charlotte - unlikely but it'd free up the Spurs to play hard against Dallas. A Memphis win over Boston would be very helpful as well. Spurs probably don't care as much as ST about the lottery odds but I'd like them to play the full rotation and prepare for the play-in game
Bucks over Cleveland - secures Bucks over Boston, but there'll be an interesting dynamic with the 2-4 positions in the east especially with Nets looking like the 7th seed
Memphis over Boston - very important for the Spurs, likely pushes Boston's pick to 23
New York over Toronto - also very important, Toronto's pick would probably land at 20
76ers over Detroit - for the chance of Philly going above Boston
Denver over Lakers - so that Denver end up at least tied with Toronto. Also because Lakers
Utah over Portland - so that Utah end up at least tied with Toronto

If everything goes right for the Spurs, i.e. Wizards winning and Boston losing, then we can root for them to win without sacrificing lottery balls and Boston's pick.

The east 2-4 fight would be interesting. In a 3-way tie Boston would be 2nd, Bucks 3rd and Philly 4th. I think Philly can't get 2nd in any scenario and it's possible they'd be more comfortable being 4th rather than 3rd, so they may not go all out to win against Detroit. Nets projecting to be 7th is big because both Milwaukee and Boston would probably prefer facing Bulls in the first round.

Saved me the trouble of the update, thanks.

Diving a bit further, we can look at which teams have a reason to play hard and which don't.

The Cavs and Nets are tied for #7 and the Nets have the tiebreaker, having won the season series 3-1. Both teams play at the same time, but the Nets have a cake matchup with the Pacers so while the Cavs have a reason to try and win, it's highly unlikely that they win and the Nets lose. The Bucks lock up the #2 seed with a win so they will go all out.

The Grizzlies are locked into their playoff and draft seed, but that was also true last night and it didn't stop them from steamrolling the Pelicans. While the Celtics have every reason to play hard, let's hope the Grizzlies decide to use this last game as a playoff warmup and not a chance to sit their main guys. I haven't yet seen a report of which players will be out for that game.

New York, unfortunately, has no reason to win and can improve their draft slot, or at least stop it from getting worse, if they lose. A loss by the Knicks means they will flip with the Wizards if the Wizards win, and will either draft ahead of or flip with the Pelicans.

In another unfortunate break, the Celtics have the 2-team tiebreaker over the Sixers if both teams win (and the Bucks win too). The teams tied 2-2 in the regular season but the Celtics have the better division record, giving them the tiebreaker. That means the Celtics will be playing to win and the Grizzlies might not try too hard to keep up given that their playoff position is locked up.

Utah and Denver drawing weak opponents and having a reason to win is good for the Spurs because if Utah/Denver/Toronto all win, they end up in a 3-way tie and the Spurs get a chance to pick ahead of Utah and Denver. The Utah and Denver games happen at the same time so neither team can afford to throw.

[Gagnrath]

Add Harden to the list of guys who never understood what the concept of team sport was about.

Oh he did though that's what makes the Harden story so painful. He was so bright of an ember for starting a team in OKC. Moving him over Westbrook sent the wrong message to both. Then Dantoni with the rockets did his mind fuck a good player thing.... I can't think of a single player who came out better after a season under Mike D'Antoni. Add in some physical decline and you aren't in a good spot for him.

[heyheymymy]

a different kind of magic number thread love that data thanks!

[MultiTroll]

Diving a bit further, we can look at which teams have a reason to play hard and which don't.

The Cavs and Nets are tied for #7 and the Nets have the tiebreaker, having won the season series 3-1. Both teams play at the same time, but the Nets have a cake matchup with the Pacers so while the Cavs have a reason to try and win, it's highly unlikely that they win and the Nets lose. The Bucks lock up the #2 seed with a win so they will go all out.
New York, unfortunately, has no reason to win and can improve their draft slot, or at least stop it from getting worse, if they lose. A loss by the Knicks means they will flip with the Wizards if the Wizards win, and will either draft ahead of or flip with the Pelicans.

Utah and Denver drawing weak opponents and having a reason to win is good for the Spurs because if Utah/Denver/Toronto all win, they end up in a 3-way tie and the Spurs get a chance to pick ahead of Utah and Denver. The Utah and Denver games happen at the same time so neither team can afford to throw.
Toronto have any motive to beat the Knicks?
Bucks would rather have the #3 seed and avoid the Nets or hell no Bucks are not afraid of the Nets or anyone else and will go all out today? Freaks knee tho, rest?

[duncan2150]

Toronto have any motive to beat the Knicks?
Bucks would rather have the #3 seed and avoid the Nets or hell no Bucks are not afraid of the Nets or anyone else and will go all out today? Freaks knee tho, rest?


The Bucks are resting almost every player lol

Agree Toronto can rest some players as they are a lock at the 5 seed.

[JPB]

The irony of all that is that you might end up with a better player with a lower pick.. History will tell.

[MultiTroll]

Hornets seem like they may roll today, however that douche Porzi has been balling for the Wiz lately.

[Ariel]

Toronto have any motive to beat the Knicks?
Toronto locked the 5th seed, they could play my grannie if they wanted to, but last I checked they didn't have any significant player in the injured list, while the Knicks have practically everybody out.

[MultiTroll]

Toronto locked the 5th seed, they could play my grannie if they wanted to, but last I checked they didn't have any significant player in the injured list, while the Knicks have practically everybody out.
Yes Knicks have draft pick motivation to lose.
This one could get hilarious.

[Ariel]

The Bucks playing their G-League team, down by 13 in just 3 minutes, with a full Cavaliers squad (minus Allen). Game over.

[Seventyniner]

I didn't go through all the tiebreaker rules, but I'm guessing the Bucks have the 2 seed locked up in any tie situation (2-team with BOS, 2-team with PHI, or 3-team with BOS and PHI). There's no reason to just throw away HCA in round 2.

[mo7888]

The Bucks playing their G-League team, down by 13 in just 3 minutes, with a full Cavaliers squad (minus Allen). Game over.

Milwaukee really wants to avoid Brooklyn in the 1st round lol... we'll see if Boston feels the same later today..

[mo7888]

I didn't go through all the tiebreaker rules, but I'm guessing the Bucks have the 2 seed locked up in any tie situation (2-team with BOS, 2-team with PHI, or 3-team with BOS and PHI). There's no reason to just throw away HCA in round 2.

No, Boston has the tie breaker advantage in a two way tie... it looks to me like Milwaukee just wants to avoid Brooklyn in rd 1.

If it's a 3 team tie then Boston gets the 2 spot...Milwaukee 3 and Philly 4...

[mo7888]

Philly sitting Embiid and Harden tonight...

[Ariel]

Philly sitting Embiid and Harden tonight...
Embiid out is a big blow, but Harden being out is an addition by subtraction given his recent form.
Winning could be costly for Detroit, as they currently are the 3rd worst team by one game and there's a big drop off in their lottery chances if they end up 4th, which could happen if they win and go to a tie with OKC. They should tank hard for his game.

[emanueldavidginobili]

1512947259847188482

[Ariel]

Wizards down 3 with 9 minutes left in the 4th... don't know if it will be enough, but much respect for them.

[TD 21]

Expect whatever is worst for the Spurs and best for the Raptors to occur.



Milwaukee really wants to avoid Brooklyn in the 1st round lol... we'll see if Boston feels the same later today..

They purposely steered right into the Heat last season when they could have tried to avoid it, wanting to exact revenge.

I realize they beat the Nets last season, but the narrative was that it only happened because of Irving's absence, Harden's being hobbled and Durant's toe on the line. Different iteration of the Nets obviously, but I could see them thinking by beating them again they'd further legitimize themselves.

This is probably more so due to Budenholzer being paranoid about risking injury.

[Ariel]

Expect whatever is worst for the Spurs and best for the Raptors to occur..
Raptors should win but so should Denver and Utah, keeping the current 3-way tie. It's the Boston pick whose future is growing darker.

[emanueldavidginobili]

Milwaukee really wants to avoid Brooklyn in the 1st round lol... we'll see if Boston feels the same later today..

1513269431492825092

1513271463008165891

[Ariel]

Philly sitting Embiid and Harden tonight...
Detroit without Cade Cunningham, Jerami Grant and Marvin Bagley.

[RC_Drunkford]

Obi Toppin is doing us a solid

[T Park]

With the raptors losing, believe that will in all likelihood wrap up 20? For the raptors pick

[Ariel]

With the raptors losing, believe that will in all likelihood wrap up 20? For the raptors pick
Whoever loses of Utah and Denver would be tied with Toronto. If both win, then yes we get 20 wrapped.

[Seventyniner]

With the raptors losing, believe that will in all likelihood wrap up 20? For the raptors pick

If the Jazz and Nuggets both win, yes. They both have weak opponents, but Jokic and Mitchell are sitting so I don't know how much they will try to win. Those two teams will be the 5 and 6 seeds in the West.

[heyheymymy]

Damn what happens in LAL wins

they just forced OT in DEN