AJ Griffin - 2022 NBA Draft Prospect

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/aj-griffin-nba-draft-scouting-report-strengths-weaknesses-outlook/

I wrote a scouting report on AJ Griffin from the Spurs prospective and included a few video clips. He's a draft prospect I want to like -- but the deeper I dive, the less interested I am in him. At 9, I'd be underwhelmed.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Good review. Every time I watch film of him he drops a tier on my big board. He's super weird to evaluate - he shows the opposite of what my expectations are. Dude plays like he has a backpack full of stones slowing him down, can't beat anyone off the dribble, can't get to the rim. If it weren't for the occasional flashes of great footwork and self creation I'd wonder why he's projected in the first round at all.

Also the less said about his defense the better. He plays like a 40 year old Harden - you can't go through him because he's big and strong but any player showing minimal effort blows by him with ease.

I'd be very concerned if the Spurs pick him in the lottery.

[John B]

Is he going to grow another 3-4 inches? Because that’s who I want the Spurs pick at #9. I mean this kid looks like a safe bet, sound fundamentals, can shoot and score, albeit not as explosive. Underwhelming is a good word, while he’s already an nba body at 18. Next.

[BatManu20]

Pretty confident he’ll be available wherever we end up selecting. Hopefully we pass on him. Not that he’s not a good player, I just think there’ll be better options at that spot.

I don’t like that he’s lost so much athleticism already with those knee injuries at such a young age. Plays below the rim now. He has a really wide stance when he shoots too. Just too many red flags for me. I think he ends up falling out of the top-10 entirely.

[Mr. Body]

Bad defender, poor athlete, can't even dribble that well. It's astonishing he's in top 10 consideration. I'm not even sure his shooting is for real. A guy who can only do one thing isn't a lottery pick, esp when he's a negative value everywhere else. A team with two lottery picks might find a decent niche player though I'd much rather grab Mathurin or Davis from the same player type.

As for Duke players, Wendell Moore may be a value pick. Not a lot of attention on him at this point.

[mo7888]

I'm not as down on him... The injury concerns are worrisome but, I haven't dinged him for that yet simply because teams haven't gotten to evaluate it yet and there haven't been any leaks of those evaluations. If there are long-term or chronic concerns he'll fall considerably...I'm kind of in 'wait and see' mode on that.

[The Truth #6]

Agree with others. Kind of odd how high he has been ranked so consistently high. I'll be honest I haven't studied him closely, but the assessments all consistently say: injury concerns, loss of athleticism, mainly a shooter, average defender. That doesn't sound like a top ten pick. Sort of makes you doubt the group think in general about draft boards. If I squint I sort of see a Saddiq Bey type player, maybe.

[lmbebo]

If he slipped to our pick in the 20s, I'd take him. #9 would be too high.

[rascal]

Not impressed with Griffin.

Plays below the rim and doesn't look explosive and has a wide stance unorthodox looking shot.

[SAGirl]

Wow, reading that I found myself wondering why that guy was even a lottery talent. It looks like he will fall.
Thanks for the report.

[couchman]

Agree with this scouting report.
Griffin and TyTy are at the top of my "please don't draft these guys" list.
If we had a team already contending and looking to improve with a hole at the 3 position he might be a good plug and play guy.
We are not that team.

[duncan2150]

Bad defender, poor athlete, can't even dribble that well. It's astonishing he's in top 10 consideration. I'm not even sure his shooting is for real. A guy who can only do one thing isn't a lottery pick, esp when he's a negative value everywhere else. A team with two lottery picks might find a decent niche player though I'd much rather grab Mathurin or Davis from the same player type.

As for Duke players, Wendell Moore may be a value pick. Not a lot of attention on him at this point.

That's not astonish Imo, he's one of the better prospects in this class offensively while playing not at 100% this year. He's really talented.

But at the End i'll not take him because of his injuries and D. He is actually a really Bad defender except in the post.

[Uriel]

If we end up drafting a player from Duke, I hope it will be Paolo Banchero because we ended up winning the lottery.

[rascal]

If we end up drafting a player from Duke, I hope it will be Paolo Banchero because we ended up winning the lottery.

So Banchero is who you would take at 1?

[duncan2150]

https://youtu.be/p8rkz4HBEGE

I will add this fresh scouting to the thread. You'll see in the strenghts why he is a lottery guy.

[jjspur]

Every year some highly rated "lottery" player drops out of the lottery into the 15-25 zone for whatever reason. This guy has a lot of nice qualities but has some obvious flaws. I see him the type that's really good at one or two things but just so so at everything else, important to a team just not important enough to spend a lottery pick on. Probably lands just outside the lottery in between the spurs 9th and 20th picks. Some team will take him and he will be successful, it probably just wont be the spurs. Think Brandon Clarke, highly rated college career but passed on during the lottery, flawed but still a successful NBA player.

[BacktoBasics]

Maybe its the wide stance but there's not much elevation when he shoots.

[Seventyniner]

I hope he goes top 8.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Maybe its the wide stance but there's not much elevation when he shoots.

I imagine some team like Sacramento will draft him, try to change his shot and make him a career 27% shooter.

[Mr. Body]

That's not astonish Imo, he's one of the better prospects in this class offensively while playing not at 100% this year. He's really talented.

But at the End i'll not take him because of his injuries and D. He is actually a really Bad defender except in the post.

He's not that talented, no. He can shoot, that's it. Too much hangs on athleticism returning and evenso there are better prospects in the top 10.

[duncan2150]

He's not that talented, no. He can shoot, that's it. Too much hangs on athleticism returning and evenso there are better prospects in the top 10.

It's not like we'll fight for this but for me he's talented and without a debate. The scouting i posted shows it for the offensive side.

Still we agree cause i'll not draft him.

[Mr. Body]

https://youtu.be/p8rkz4HBEGE

I will add this fresh scouting to the thread. You'll see in the strenghts why he is a lottery guy.

Everyone should watch from about 7:00 on. An exceptionally bad defender. Not just because his athleticism is miserable. He's much worse than even Alperen Sengun was. Opposing teams would headhunt him at will and destroy us.

[duncan2150]

Everyone should watch from about 7:00 on. An exceptionally bad defender. Not just because his athleticism is miserable. He's much worse than even Alperen Sengun was. Opposing teams would headhunt him at will and destroy us.

That's why i'll not take him.

But if you watch all the video, you could see the offensive potential.

[widowmaker]

Pass.

[CGD]

I've been high on him in the past, but have to admit ive become increasingly lukewarm. For his supposed "tools" the lack of defensive intensity/interest is worrisome. Plus, i think we drafted a better version of this guy last year in Josh Primo.

Curious for a similar scouting of Johnny Davis. Its been the opposite for me with that guy: was originally down on him, but growing more interested given his midrange shot creation potential, swag, and defensive ratings. Size is obviously less than ideal.

[John B]

https://youtu.be/p8rkz4HBEGE

I will add this fresh scouting to the thread. You'll see in the strenghts why he is a lottery guy.

A great shooter with defensive liability. Don't show this to Pop :lol

[Mr. Body]

I've been high on him in the past, but have to admit ive become increasingly lukewarm. For his supposed "tools" the lack of defensive intensity/interest is worrisome. Plus, i think we drafted a better version of this guy last year in Josh Primo.

Curious for a similar scouting of Johnny Davis. Its been the opposite for me with that guy: was originally down on him, but growing more interested given his midrange shot creation potential, swag, and defensive ratings. Size is obviously less than ideal.

Same with me for Davis. I have questions, same with Mathurin, but he's coming back for me. That rebounding rate and his defense add to the interest.

[Uriel]

So Banchero is who you would take at 1?
I think he's the best fit for our current roster and would make the most immediate impact. But when it comes to long-term upside, Smith or Holmgren might be better.

[Spursfanfromafar]

I think he's the best fit for our current roster and would make the most immediate impact. But when it comes to long-term upside, Smith or Holmgren might be better.

Jabari Smith for me is the best pick. Highest upside of all the prospects and great attitude. Fits a need and the culture.

[Marco]

One of the most overrated prospects.

[ZeusWillJudge]

https://www.spurstalk.com/aj-griffin-nba-draft-scouting-report-strengths-weaknesses-outlook/

I wrote a scouting report on AJ Griffin from the Spurs prospective and included a few video clips. He's a draft prospect I want to like -- but the deeper I dive, the less interested I am in him. At 9, I'd be underwhelmed.



Wow, you're prolific these days. I thought your target of 200 articles was pretty ambitious, but at this rate it's not in doubt.

A few monts ago, when I thought the Spurs would be picking around 13-14, and Griffin hadn't ridden up the mock draft ladder, someone asked me about Griffin. I was pretty down on him, but started running through what I had seen, and what the numbers showed, and had to say that I wouldn't hate it if the Spurs picked him. But he impressed me less as the season wore on.

I would HATE him at #9. Without question, hate that pick. But I would really rather see the Spurs take a hard pass on him. There are too many other options, and if the Spurs really don't keep all 3 FRP's I would rather them get through the offseason without him on the roster.

[wildbill2u]

Doesn't fit into Spurs defensive culture. Taller Forbes? Not a top pick IMO

[SAGirl]

https://youtu.be/p8rkz4HBEGE

I will add this fresh scouting to the thread. You'll see in the strenghts why he is a lottery guy.
Thanks for sharing that. I can glimpse the reason he’s in the lottery now but its not a compelling case. One can’t discount completely guys that are very efficient offensively at a young age, no matter how their game looks. He is not just a stagnant jump shooter, he’ll relocate and dribble step to a 3 if he has to, and it seems like he was very good at that.

But even his offensive highlights are underwhelming because many shots are wide open, with a few contests from guys smaller than him who cant get to his shot. His shot is slow and low, creating real concern he will not be able to get it off in the NBA quickly enough to be a volume 3 pt shooter, where his value lies.

The injury history, the bad defense. Honestly he looks slower than SloMo Anderson, which is hard to do. I am wary of ignoring productive players regardless of how their game looks but this guy has too many red flags specially for the lottery. Anderson went 30 for comparison. He has so many red flags, from the injury history sapping all his athleticism at a young age, to him being unable to dribble past any college athlete, to the horrendous defense unable to stay in front of college athletes.

On top of all this, the Spurs already have a similar prospect in Joshua Primo. Primo was not as efficient shooting as AJ Griffin at the same age, and Primo was a TO machine in comparison, but they are similar and Primo stands a chance at being better, while already needing to improve. Think of what altering his shot did to Primo’s efficiency this season. If Griffin ends up having to adjust his shot as well, he’ll suffer a similar hit to his usefulness and everything else that hes bad at will drive everyone crazy.

Between the redundancy in the Spurs to the red flags, he’s a no. As an aside that fans here will resonate with, in tankathon one of his biggest pluses is youth. I am wary if that is one of your biggest pluses. I am starting to believe that youth is a plus only if the prospect already looks interesting and good to begin with.

[rascal]

I think he's the best fit for our current roster and would make the most immediate impact. But when it comes to long-term upside, Smith or Holmgren might be better.

I don't care about current roster. The Spurs need to shoot for the highest ceiling superstar talent and that's Sharpe.

The spurs are on at least a three year plan to turn the team into one of the better teams in the league.

[TD 21]

Reminds me somewhat of a smaller Harrison Barnes. Was initially thought to be a better athlete (though this is more injury related) and shot creator than he is and instead looks more like a 3 and D type (whether he's good at it or not).

Young, supposed "good character", a possible shooter, with a combo forward frame, seemingly checks a lot of boxes. But I agree that the Spurs need to aim higher.

[BackHome]

I can see why he is in the lottery but hard pass because of injury history

[Dejounte]

Guy has always been low on my board when others were high on him earlier in the season, I’m glad others’ perception of him is catching up to mine.