Lottery Day Countdown - May 17th

[bluebellmaniac]

19 Days until the Lottery.

[exstatic]

I really want to see us, and a couple of other 8 and below teams jump in, and push back all of the year long and after ASG tank teams.

[bluebellmaniac]

The FIX is in!

[The Truth #6]

The FIX is in!

Hopefully in our favor as a reward for not egregiously tanking.

[rascal]

The Spurs are getting a top four pick.

[rascal]

Who are you taking if at 1? 2? 3? 4?

[duncan2150]

Who are you taking if at 1? 2? 3? 4?
Banchero or Smith, then holmgren and ivey.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Holmgren
Smith
Banchero
Sharpe

[Mr. Body]

I take Holgren and #1. Banchero probably #2.

I like Jabari Smith but that's very expensive for a guy who may just be a high-end role player.

[rjv]

may the basketball gods reward those organizations who chose not to punish their fan base with uncompetitive basketball

[John B]

1987, 1997, 2022 sounds about right :bobo. Waiting for Chet :ihit

[rascal]

In order

Sharpe
Ivey
Smith
Banchero

[slick'81]

4th pick is ours

[bluebellmaniac]

My cousin was cleaning the office of the accountant in charge of the lottery when they heard them talking about who would get which spot. Spurs were locked for the 4th.

[Robz4000]

Spurs will get the 10th pick.

[mo7888]

Who are you taking if at 1? 2? 3? 4?

Banchero, Smith, Holmgren, then Ivey...

[TD 21]

Spurs will get the 10th pick.

That's the spirit. :toast



Banchero, Smith, Holmgren, then Ivey...

Probably leaning this way too, but this might be the type of draft where it's best to pick 2nd or 3rd, not have to make a choice between perceived similar caliber prospects and have whoever goes 1st having the label/pressure of a 1st pick when none seem entirely suited.

[KingKev]

With the 4th pick in the 2022 draft the Spurs select Jabari Smith.

[rascal]

With the 4th pick in the 2022 draft the Spurs select Jabari Smith.

He's going number 1.

[KingKev]

He's going number 1.

and we are probably picking #9.

Too many unknowns.

[Dex]

I sent Adam Silver some coupons to Bed Bath & Beyond.....so we should be good for a top 4 pick.

You're welcome, everybody.

[Sugus]

I'll ask a different question since I don't follow the college scene at all:

Given the recent rumors about teams interested in Jakob, and knowing that besides him, the C rotation is maybe even more dreadful than the PF one; were the Spurs to trade Jak for mostly future assets (meaning, not a trade landing us another starting-level C), would this affect your (personal obv) drafting priorities/wishes?

I ask because, understandably, there's a lot of forum-wide wishing to draft the next, missing, starting PF for the team's core. But a Jak trade could really put that in the back seat. Neither Zollins (I don't trust that foot surviving a starting, 82-games season demand ever again) nor Landale are fit for starting whatsoever, and it's clear thus far that the Spurs will again look to field a relatively competitive roster, especially with DJ's All-Star selection and the team missing the POs. I imagine the FO knows a player of DJ's (again, relative) caliber can begin to get impatient after 4 straight seasons of not making the playoffs.

So, basically, what are the best attainable C prospects? I'd assume we'd be looking for a high-floor, relatively high-ceiling type, especially with the #9 pick (lottery notwithstanding). None of the projected top picks are C's either (I see Chet as more a PF from the little I've seen of him, at least until/if he fills out his body). What are the "big fish" out there?

Thanks for any info, I like to at least know be familiar with the names to be interested in come draft night.

[GreekSpursfan]

Life happens and i couldn't be with my fellow Spurs fans in this forum. My first comment coming back is good luck San Antonio Spurs, we gonna need it.

[SAGirl]

Life happens and i couldn't be with my fellow Spurs fans in this forum. My first comment coming back is good luck San Antonio Spurs, we gonna need it.
I hope you and your family are fine.
:bobo

[ZeusWillJudge]

19 Days until the Lottery.


This is actually a pretty good thread. I'm getting pretty bored of talking about the same old prospects over and over. The lottery and the combine are the next big landmarks, and they should shed a little more light on what we might expect.

[bluebellmaniac]

This is actually a pretty good thread. I'm getting pretty bored of talking about the same old prospects over and over. The lottery and the combine are the next big landmarks, and they should shed a little more light on what we might expect.

+1

[RC_Drunkford]

Banchero
Ivey
Smith
Holmgren

[mo7888]

I'll ask a different question since I don't follow the college scene at all:

Given the recent rumors about teams interested in Jakob, and knowing that besides him, the C rotation is maybe even more dreadful than the PF one; were the Spurs to trade Jak for mostly future assets (meaning, not a trade landing us another starting-level C), would this affect your (personal obv) drafting priorities/wishes?

I ask because, understandably, there's a lot of forum-wide wishing to draft the next, missing, starting PF for the team's core. But a Jak trade could really put that in the back seat. Neither Zollins (I don't trust that foot surviving a starting, 82-games season demand ever again) nor Landale are fit for starting whatsoever, and it's clear thus far that the Spurs will again look to field a relatively competitive roster, especially with DJ's All-Star selection and the team missing the POs. I imagine the FO knows a player of DJ's (again, relative) caliber can begin to get impatient after 4 straight seasons of not making the playoffs.

So, basically, what are the best attainable C prospects? I'd assume we'd be looking for a high-floor, relatively high-ceiling type, especially with the #9 pick (lottery notwithstanding). None of the projected top picks are C's either (I see Chet as more a PF from the little I've seen of him, at least until/if he fills out his body). What are the "big fish" out there?

Thanks for any info, I like to at least know be familiar with the names to be interested in come draft night.

You're looking at Duren, Williams, and Kessler... all 3 could soak up minutes at the 5 next year but, you're probably counting on Collins and Jock more because rookies are going to be up and down..

[offset formation]

I gotta have more Cock burn.

[XDT76]

1987, 1997, 2022 sounds about right :bobo. Waiting for Chet :ihit

Timmy's fault that we miss 2007.😂

[Mr. Body]

Timmy's fault that we miss 2007.��

2007 was Greg Oden, so...

[scott]

Banchero
Smith
Ivey
Murray
Mathurin
Sharpe

No interest in Chet. Dude is gonna be a major bust.

[Seventyniner]

Timmy's fault that we miss 2007.

The Spurs got a ring that summer. Not a bad consolation prize.

[John B]

Timmy's fault that we miss 2007.

2017 when Spurs got Zaza’d :lol

[John B]

Banchero
Smith
Ivey
Murray
Mathurin
Sharpe

No interest in Chet. Dude is gonna be a major bust.

I hope they all think like you do and Chet falls in Spurs lap. The same reason how scouts questioned Luka’s athleticism or lack thereof despite his complete at a young age. Chet is a unicorn at that size. He would prove a lot of people wrong if he get passed on

[Ariel]

I hope they all think like you do and Chet falls in Spurs lap. The same reason how scouts questioned Luka’s athleticism or lack thereof despite his complete at a young age. Chet is a unicorn at that size. He would prove a lot of people wrong if he get passed on
Luka was setting the FIBA world on fire at 19, Chet was disappearing offensively in the NCAA tournament when his team needed him the most (It was Timme who had to carry the load). They don't even belong in the same sentence.

[Joseph Kony]

Silver needs to gift us the #1 pick for not turning the Leonard situation into a Simmons fiasco and for not tanking and trying to remain competitive. Dude owes us imho

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Silver needs to gift us the #1 pick for not turning the Leonard situation into a Simmons fiasco and for not tanking and trying to remain competitive. Dude owes us imho

Sure but next year.

[Ariel]

To be clear, Chet is not going to be a bust in the same sense Hasheem Thabeet was a bust. He's clearly a skilled, coordinated guy standing over 7 feet tall, with high bball IQ and defensive instincts (awesome shotblocking) to go along. But the point is whether he's worthy of a 1st pick, and in that you have to take more into consideration, such as his ceiling offensively, whether he'll be bounced around in the paint by NBA talent guys (already happened in College), of if he's talented enough to be a consistent threat from the perimeter (he's a good shooter, but lets not kid ourselves into thinking he's Dirk).

Also, it's not that he's just skinny in the same way almost any teenager that size is, say KG or Giannis when they came into the league, his frame is much smaller and the grind of the NBA game will likely be tougher on him than everyone else, he'll fall down a dozen times every game, and that'll take a toll on him sooner rather than later. I'll take those chances later on in the draft, but for a 1st overall pick the thought of that makes me cringe, to the point that I'd rather have a 3rd of 4th pick and avoid those risks altogether.

[scott]

To be clear, Chet is not going to be a bust in the same sense Hasheem Thabeet was a bust. He's clearly a skilled, coordinated guy standing over 7 feet tall, with high bball IQ and defensive instincts (awesome shotblocking) to go along. But the point is whether he's worthy of a 1st pick, and in that you have to take more into consideration, such as his ceiling offensively, whether he'll be bounced around in the paint by NBA talent guys (already happened in College), of if he's talented enough to be a consistent threat from the perimeter (he's a good shooter, but lets not kid ourselves into thinking he's Dirk).

Also, it's not that he's just skinny in the same way almost any teenager that size is, say KG or Giannis when they came into the league, his frame is much smaller and the grind of the NBA game will likely be tougher on him than everyone else, he'll fall down a dozen times every game, and that'll take a toll on him sooner rather than later. I'll take those chances later on in the draft, but for a 1st overall pick the thought of that makes me cringe, to the point that I'd rather have a 3rd of 4th pick and avoid those risks altogether.

This is honestly why I'd be a little afraid of the 3rd or 4th pick. Paolo and Jabari could easily go with the top 2 picks, and then you are left with a choice between Chet and Ivey. I would take Ivey, but with the existing investment in guards, Chet is just screaming to be taken at that point. Give me #1 and I'll put my faith in the FO to pick the low floor guy and DJM to do the lobbying needed for the Seattle kid.

[Thomas82]

Sure but next year.

Agreed. It would be much better to have the #1 pick next year.

[SAGirl]

To be clear, Chet is not going to be a bust in the same sense Hasheem Thabeet was a bust. He's clearly a skilled, coordinated guy standing over 7 feet tall, with high bball IQ and defensive instincts (awesome shotblocking) to go along. But the point is whether he's worthy of a 1st pick, and in that you have to take more into consideration, such as his ceiling offensively, whether he'll be bounced around in the paint by NBA talent guys (already happened in College), of if he's talented enough to be a consistent threat from the perimeter (he's a good shooter, but lets not kid ourselves into thinking he's Dirk).

Also, it's not that he's just skinny in the same way almost any teenager that size is, say KG or Giannis when they came into the league, his frame is much smaller and the grind of the NBA game will likely be tougher on him than everyone else, he'll fall down a dozen times every game, and that'll take a toll on him sooner rather than later. I'll take those chances later on in the draft, but for a 1st overall pick the thought of that makes me cringe, to the point that I'd rather have a 3rd of 4th pick and avoid those risks altogether.
I am curious what you think, about his current body type vs how Ingram and Durant looked. Hes obviously not Durant at all. I dont mean this comparison in terms of their games, but whether the body hindered their careers, and how they were able to get stronger and still never look bulky because of their incredible length and stringy body type.

I dont generally like to compare to Giannis bc Giannis was a string bean when he came in but he was barely 18 right? And he’s not typical.

Chet is generally intriguing. I also wonder how he compares to a rookie Porzinguis.

[Dejounte]

I’m getting some nice rolls this morning on tankathon with getting a top 3 pick every 3rd roll.

everybody better be working their good mojo / superstitious shit leading up to the draft! We need all the good energy we can get.

[Russ]

So, basically, what are the best attainable C prospects? I'd assume we'd be looking for a high-floor, relatively high-ceiling type, especially with the #9 pick (lottery notwithstanding). None of the projected top picks are C's either (I see Chet as more a PF from the little I've seen of him, at least until/if he fills out his body). What are the "big fish" out there?

Thanks for any info, I like to at least know be familiar with the names to be interested in come draft night.

Other than possibly Duren, there's not a lot of upside in the centers likely to go in the 1st round.

You might take a look at Ismael Kamagate (France) with the Spurs 2d round pick (#38). (Though he might not be there by then.)

He's a little older (21) but he's averaging 11.8/6.3 in Paris shooting 648% from the floor and 664% from the line -- not disastrous for an athletic guy whose 6'11" and 230.

Negative -- he can't/doesn't shoot the three at all.

Most importantly, he looks to have a good motor -- he's a high-end offensive rebounder. In short, he moves pretty well and looks intriguing.

Given the dearth of centers in this draft he might be worth a look at some point down the draft.

LfeI2oT800c

[ZeusWillJudge]

I’m getting some nice rolls this morning on tankathon with getting a top 3 pick every 3rd roll.

everybody better be working their good mojo / superstitious shit leading up to the draft! We need all the good energy we can get.


If you have any spare goats, I can give you some pointers.

If the Spurs name gets called in the lottery, this place is going to go nuts. One of those three bigs at the top is going to be better than the other two, but all three of them have such potential to fit this team well that they don't have to get the absolute #1 pick. Let's hope it's destiny in the making.

[rascal]

Other than possibly Duren, there's not a lot of upside in the centers likely to go in the 1st round.

You might take a look at Ismael Kamagate (France) with the Spurs 2d round pick (#38). (Though he might not be there by then.)

He's a little older (21) but he's averaging 11.8/6.3 in Paris shooting 648% from the floor and 664% from the line -- not disastrous for an athletic guy whose 6'11" and 230.

Negative -- he can't/doesn't shoot the three at all.

Most importantly, he looks to have a good motor -- he's a high-end offensive rebounder. In short, he moves pretty well and looks intriguing.

Given the dearth of centers in this draft he might be worth a look at some point down the draft.

LfeI2oT800c

You can draft Kamagate if you have good % shooters at the 2 and 3 and 4. Just need to have a good defensive presence and rebounder at the 5 if you have knock down shooters and athletic penetrators at the 2, 3 and 4.

[Ignazzz]

Lakers gets 1st
oh wait

[John B]

I’m getting some nice rolls this morning on tankathon with getting a top 3 pick every 3rd roll.

everybody better be working their good mojo / superstitious shit leading up to the draft! We need all the good energy we can get.

I got 2nd overall on the 1st try :bobo

[Biggems]

If we did luck into the 1 this year, it is too bad we can't exchange it for the 1 next year.

If we get 1, I have no idea who to take. It's not like we are drafting David, Tim, Shaq, Hakeem, or Lebron. There are 3 or 4 players who could go number one. That makes it a crapshoot and I am horrible at dice games.

[K...]

Lakers gets 1st
oh wait

goes to new orleans , league pressures NO to trade zion for westbrook. That's all i got though. Lakers are pretty fucked

[Ariel]

goes to new orleans , league pressures NO to trade zion for westbrook. That's all i got though. Lakers are pretty fucked
They extend Zion. Next season Westbrook's contract expires and Zion becomes the black version of fat bast*rd. The Pelicans deal the unprotected picks in the trade to the Spurs for some role player to be determined. A few years down the road, the Spurs use the pick to select the next Tim Duncan.
There, I fixed it for ya. :lol

[bluebellmaniac]

15 Days until the LOTTERY!

[rascal]

goes to new orleans , league pressures NO to trade zion for westbrook. That's all i got though. Lakers are pretty fucked

Lakers can always reload on the fly. That's how that franchise operates.

Just sign other teams stars and no long years of trying to find a star in the draft.

[exstatic]

Lakers can always reload on the fly. That's how that franchise operates.

Just sign other teams stars and no long years of trying to find a star in the draft.

They won’t have cap room this summer. The first FRP that they can trade to offload Westchuck’s contract is 2027, and somehow, I don’t see one pick being enough for a team to eat $47M.

[mo7888]

If we did luck into the 1 this year, it is too bad we can't exchange it for the 1 next year.

If we get 1, I have no idea who to take. It's not like we are drafting David, Tim, Shaq, Hakeem, or Lebron. There are 3 or 4 players who could go number one. That makes it a crapshoot and I am horrible at dice games.

1 would be great but anything in the top 4 is really about equal value..

[Seventyniner]

They won’t have cap room this summer. The first FRP that they can trade to offload Westchuck’s contract is 2027, and somehow, I don’t see one pick being enough for a team to eat $47M.

Even if the Lakers could somehow unload Westbrook into cap space they would have around $22M in cap space assuming the cap is $122M, and that's before taking into account roster charges. If I'm doing the math right that's around $9M, leaving them with $13M of space. That's not much more than the MLE, and they would have to fill out the 15-man roster with all minimums and the room exception after that.

They could clear up tons of 2023 cap space with only 2 players under contract: AD $40.6M and THT $11M. They should have their pick of free agents if they don't add a bunch of 2+ year contract money this summer. That assumes that LeBron leaves, though. If he re-ups for $50M or so they would be back to around $25M of cap space before roster charges.

[R. DeMurre]

It's going to be interesting to see what the Lakers eventually do with Lebron, especially since he's already on record saying he wants to play one year with his son before he retires. He was an ironman for years, but that's just not the case anymore at age 37.

[Dejounte]

Rolled only once today and ended up with the #4 pick. Not going to roll again out of a made up superstition i just created in my mind right now

[John B]

Rolled one time and hit #1 pick. Let’s keep the positive vibes :bobo

[SAGirl]

Rolled one and got 10, no joke. Sacramento jumped from 6 to 1, OKC was 2, Orlando 3 and NY jumped 7 spots to 4!

[4lifecowboy]

Did you even watch the tournament, it was foul trouble that kept him out. I contend that the refs didn't let him play with the same degree of aggression they were allowing his opponents to. I would take him #1 overall personally.

[tonight...you]

My first 3 rolls SA stayed where they are.
4th roll they went up to #2.

I'm going to follow Dejounte's lead and stop right there for now.

[lefty20]

May the balls be ever in our favor.

[T Park]

Rolled only once today and ended up with the #4 pick. Not going to roll again out of a made up superstition i just created in my mind right now


��

[rascal]

It'll be exciting when they get to 9 and the Spurs name is not called.

[jjspur]

I'm curious, it seems that a lot of the spins on the tankathon lottery wheel are coming up #4. What is the #4 pick in this years draft worth in trade ? Another pick in the lottery, a decent player and a lightly protected pick in next years draft. Any thoughts ? Or do we just keep the pick at 4.

[XDT76]

This year's lottery anticipation seems much higher than previous years.

[JPB]

I'm curious, it seems that a lot of the spins on the tankathon lottery wheel are coming up #4. What is the #4 pick in this years draft worth in trade ? Another pick in the lottery, a decent player and a lightly protected pick in next years draft. Any thoughts ? Or do we just keep the pick at 4.

Nah, you keep a fourth pick if you're the spurs right now. Don't wanna lose a potential future star on a relatively cheap contract for 4 years who will fit well with your developing roster.

[rascal]

The vibes are pointing to the Spurs getting a top four pick.

[rjv]

https://64.media.tumblr.com/dfe28fd591b5df4821c46a816bf8d37f/tumblr_ml7qg4N10R1qioxaso4_250.gifv

[barakz21]

How do ya’ll do the rolls?

[Russ]

It'll be exciting when they get to 9 and the Spurs name is not called.

Unless the Spurs name has already been called . . . :bang

[exstatic]

How do ya’ll do the rolls?

Tank a Thon.

[rascal]

Unless the Spurs name has already been called . . . :bang

That can be a possibility but not expecting that to happen.

[slick'81]

This year's lottery anticipation seems much higher than previous years.


because we actually have a shot to move up

[exstatic]

This year's lottery anticipation seems much higher than previous years.

The last two years, our top4 odds were 7.2% and 9.4%. This year, they’re 20.2%.

[rascal]

because we actually have a shot to move up

It's a more likely and higher % chance than last year.

[RedAzSa]

Dynamic Lottery Odds

The Spurs' odds to move up are known and fixed. To increase suspense, however, the NBA will reveal the draft order one team at a time - starting with pick 14. As information is revealed, our odds will shift since the set of possible outcomes becomes smaller and smaller. For example, if Cleveland jumps into the top 4, that will negatively impact the Spurs' chances as only three spots would remain. Once Cleveland is (hopefully) announced as the 14th pick, we can exclude those possible outcomes from the calculation, giving the Spurs a slightly greater chance. I created a lottery simulation to try and understand how our odds will change throughout the broadcast. Here are my findings after 1B iterations:



Pick
Base Odds
Cleveland Picks 14th
Charlotte Picks 13th
LAC/OKC Picks 12th
New York Picks 11th
Washington Picks 10th


1
4.5%
4.53%
4.59%
4.68%
4.81%
5.03%


2
4.83%
4.87%
4.94%
5.04%
5.20%
5.44%


3
5.23%
5.27%
5.35%
5.48%
5.66%
5.96%


4
5.71%
5.76%
5.86%
6.02%
6.24%
6.61%


5
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


6
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


7
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


8
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


9
50.72%
51.98%
54.61%
58.91%
65.37%
76.96%


10
25.90%
24.92%
22.76%
18.96%
12.71%
0%


11
3.01%
2.61%
1.86%
0.90%
0%
0%


12
0.09%
0.06%
0.03%
0%
0%
0%


13
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


14
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


Top 4
20.28%
20.43%
20.74%
21.23%
21.91%
23.04%


Scenario Likelihood
N/A
97.58%
92.87%
86.10%
77.58%
65.90%



If teams behind us start jumping, it hurts our chances but doesn't eliminate us altogether.



Pick
Base Odds
Exactly 1 Team Behind Jumps
2 Teams Behind Jumps
3 Teams Behind Jump


1
4.5%
3.61%
2.32%
1.13%


2
4.83%
3.80%
2.35%
1.08%


3
5.23%
3.99%
2.38%
1.08%


4
5.71%
4.17%
2.38%
1.03%


5
0%
0%
0%
0%


6
0%
0%
0%
0%


7
0%
0%
0%
0%


8
0%
0%
0%
0%


9
50.72%
0%
0%
0%


10
25.90%
84.43
0%
0%


11
3.01%
0%
90.57%
0%


12
0.09%
0%
0%
95.69%


13
0%
0%
0%
0%


14
0%
0%
0%
0%


Top 4
20.28%
15.57%
9.43%
4.31%


Scenario Likelihood
N/A
30.67%
3.32%
0.09%

[barakz21]

Tank a Thon.

Thanks!

[CGD]

Dynamic Lottery Odds

The Spurs' odds to move up are known and fixed. To increase suspense, however, the NBA will reveal the draft order one team at a time - starting with pick 14. As information is revealed, our odds will shift since the set of possible outcomes becomes smaller and smaller. For example, if Cleveland jumps into the top 4, that will negatively impact the Spurs' chances as only three spots would remain. Once Cleveland is (hopefully) announced as the 14th pick, we can exclude those possible outcomes from the calculation, giving the Spurs a slightly greater chance. I created a lottery simulation to try and understand how our odds will change throughout the broadcast. Here are my findings after 1B iterations:



Pick
Base Odds
Cleveland Picks 14th
Charlotte Picks 13th
LAC/OKC Picks 12th
New York Picks 11th
Washington Picks 10th


1
4.5%
4.53%
4.59%
4.68%
4.81%
5.03%


2
4.83%
4.87%
4.94%
5.04%
5.20%
5.44%


3
5.23%
5.27%
5.35%
5.48%
5.66%
5.96%


4
5.71%
5.76%
5.86%
6.02%
6.24%
6.61%


5
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


6
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


7
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


8
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


9
50.72%
51.98%
54.61%
58.91%
65.37%
76.96%


10
25.90%
24.92%
22.76%
18.96%
12.71%
0%


11
3.01%
2.61%
1.86%
0.90%
0%
0%


12
0.09%
0.06%
0.03%
0%
0%
0%


13
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


14
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%


Top 4
20.28%
20.43%
20.74%
21.23%
21.91%
23.04%


Scenario Likelihood
N/A
97.58%
92.87%
86.10%
77.58%
65.90%



If teams behind us start jumping, it hurts our chances but doesn't eliminate us altogether.



Pick
Base Odds
Exactly 1 Team Behind Jumps
2 Teams Behind Jumps
3 Teams Behind Jump


1
4.5%
3.61%
2.32%
1.13%


2
4.83%
3.80%
2.35%
1.08%


3
5.23%
3.99%
2.38%
1.08%


4
5.71%
4.17%
2.38%
1.03%


5
0%
0%
0%
0%


6
0%
0%
0%
0%


7
0%
0%
0%
0%


8
0%
0%
0%
0%


9
50.72%
0%
0%
0%


10
25.90%
84.43
0%
0%


11
3.01%
0%
90.57%
0%


12
0.09%
0%
0%
95.69%


13
0%
0%
0%
0%


14
0%
0%
0%
0%


Top 4
20.28%
15.57%
9.43%
4.31%


Scenario Likelihood
N/A
30.67%
3.32%
0.09%



This is neat. Have you run it in a world where everyone behind us stays behind us?

[Seventyniner]

This is neat. Have you run it in a world where everyone behind us stays behind us?

That's on there, it's the "Washington Picks 10th" scenario.

[heyheymymy]

Nice analysis seventyniner

[Seventyniner]

Nice analysis seventyniner

No, don't give me credit. That should go to RedAzSa.

I was just explaining that the scenario asked about was already in there.

[John B]

The commissioner should punish Rockets, Thunder, Magic and Detroit for blatant tanking, and reward the Spurs for trying to get to the playoffs and making it fun for the fans to watch every single year. It’d send the right message.

[tbdog]

The commissioner should punish Rockets, Thunder, Magic and Detroit for blatant tanking, and reward the Spurs for trying to get to the playoffs and making it fun for the fans to watch every single year. It’d send the right message.

Imagine if you get bonus balls to get the 10th or 9th seed and not getting in? That would be good.

[exstatic]

The commissioner should punish Rockets, Thunder, Magic and Detroit for blatant tanking, and reward the Spurs for trying to get to the playoffs and making it fun for the fans to watch every single year. It’d send the right message.

The only way to truly stop this is to give each lottery team one ping pong ball, absolutely flat odds. There would be no incentive to do multiple season long tanks like OKC. You’re shitty for 3 years in a row, and pick like 14,9,11.

[John B]

4th pick on my 1st try. :bobo

[Ocotillo]

I gave it a whirl and came up 10 :(

I did it once more and while the Spurs stayed at 9, OKC got picks 1 & 2.

[ZeusWillJudge]

The commissioner should punish Rockets, Thunder, Magic and Detroit for blatant tanking, and reward the Spurs for trying to get to the playoffs and making it fun for the fans to watch every single year. It’d send the right message.


How about if your team winds up in the bottom 5 for two consecutive seasons, the whole franchise gets moved to Vancouver. That would make owners a lot less likely to go along with tanking. :nope


That's obviously tonge in cheek, but I definitely think there should be some re-balancing of ping pong balls away from teams who wind up with bottom-5 records two years in a row. It should be tougher to get Top-5 picks two years in a row (except through trades). Not impossible, but less automatic.

Even after re-balancing the odds, the system still favors tanking a little too much. I know I favored the Spurs tanking some games, but that's because the system makes it a legit strategy. Make it less appealing, and it won't happen as much.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Dynamic Lottery Odds

The Spurs' odds to move up are known and fixed. To increase suspense, however, the NBA will reveal the draft order one team at a time - starting with pick 14. As information is revealed, our odds will shift since the set of possible outcomes becomes smaller and smaller. For example, if Cleveland jumps into the top 4, that will negatively impact the Spurs' chances as only three spots would remain. Once Cleveland is (hopefully) announced as the 14th pick, we can exclude those possible outcomes from the calculation, giving the Spurs a slightly greater chance. I created a lottery simulation to try and understand how our odds will change throughout the broadcast. Here are my findings after 1B iterations:


Good for you! I forgot that they run the picks from worst to first. (Actually, I never even paid attention to that.) I had looked at this a month or so ago, near the end of the regular season, but I did it from front to back. And that makes a HUGE difference. This way makes a lot more sense.

[baseline bum]

The only way to truly stop this is to give each lottery team one ping pong ball, absolutely flat odds. There would be no incentive to do multiple season long tanks like OKC. You’re shitty for 3 years in a row, and pick like 14,9,11.

Wish they went back to that, that was what the original draft lottery was. Immediately got rid of the blatant tanking like Houston did to get Sampson and Olajuwon.

[offset formation]

The last two years, our top4 odds were 7.2% and 9.4%. This year, they’re 20.2%.

Obligatory, "So you're saying I have a chance" GIF goes here

[offset formation]

4th pick on my 1st try. :bobo

Same.

Seems the Tank-A-Thon wheel is either setting us all up for immense disappointment or it is tapped into the cosmic ether / chisme

[bluebellmaniac]

9 days until Lottery-time!

[John B]

A week before the draft bitches!! Got #3 overall on first try. I’m smelling Seattle-trio :bobo

[slick'81]

2/10 rolls got spurs #1

[BatManu20]

And with the 10th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the San Antonio Spurs select…

[bluebellmaniac]

Got Chet on the first simulation. Ain't never been wrong...

[rjv]

over the last week, after numerous simulations, the mean is just under nine.

[KingKev]

And with the 10th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the San Antonio Spurs select…

An un-scouted 6’4 guard (with shoes) from the University of Alaska’s feeder school Nunavut College.

[bluebellmaniac]

6 Days to go before we know...

[Degoat]

“I’m not superstitious but I am a little stitious.”

- David Robinson is the representative for the spurs at Tuesdays lottery.
- I’m Graduating with my bachelors next week as well.

We’re golden boys it’s gonna be a good week :flag:

[rascal]

Spurs are getting into the top 4.

[John B]

#1 on my first try :bobo

[look_at_g_shred]

Just got the 3rd pick on my first try.

[KingKev]

Admiral will represent the Spurs at the lottery in Chicago May 17.

[JPB]

Jinx is too big on ST, we're gonna get 10th pick, tbh.

[R. DeMurre]

It'd be hilarious to see a running count of how many times people have pressed the SIM LOTTERY button on the Tankathon website. It's in the millions, no doubt. I probably have over a 100 to my name. :lol

[Uriel]

FWIW, the expected value of the Spurs’ lottery pick is 8.02.

[Russ]

FWIW, the expected value of the Spurs’ lottery pick is 8.02.

Which shows you how crazy statistics can be, since 8 is a draft position that the Spurs literally cannot get.

[rjv]

Which shows you how crazy statistics can be, since 8 is a draft position that the Spurs literally cannot get.

the statistical mean is 8 so the inference from that is that the spurs would land at 9. i've run the tankathon close to one hundred times and the mean for me is just under 9 as well.

[BatManu20]

1524916451148169216

[bluebellmaniac]

3 Days to go. Then we will know...
.

[offset formation]

3 Days to go. Then we will know...
.

Insert Bart Scott GIF.

[daslicer]

Admiral will represent the Spurs at the lottery in Chicago May 17.

David's wife is also from Chicago. Maybe this a good omen lol.

[bluebellmaniac]

Tomorrow... We will know.

[Ariel]

Which shows you how crazy statistics can be, since 8 is a draft position that the Spurs literally cannot get.
It's probabilities, and it's pretty logical if you think about it. Say you play a game where you flip a coin and you win $1 if it's heads or lose $1 of it's tails. What's the value you'd expect to make if you play the game?
Well, if you only play once, there's no chance you'll break even: you'll either win $1 or lose $1. Yet the expected value is 0: if you play enough times, you'll see that, on average, you'll neither win nor lose.
That's called expected value, which is the value you'd expect (the random variable) to have. You get it by adding each value times its probability of occurrence.
In such case would be E(X) = 0.5 · 1 + 0.5 · (-1) = 0, which is a value that is impossible to get in one experiment.
Applying the same principle to the lottery, you'd get expected value of Spurs’ pick = 1 · 0.045 + 2 · 0.048 + 3 · 0.052+ 4 · 0.057 + 5 · 0 + 6 · 0 + 7 · 0 + 8 · 0 + 9 · 0.507 + 10 · 0.259 + 11 · 0.03 + 12 · 0.001+ 13 · 0 + 14 · 0 = 8.02 (actually there's a VERY small chance at 13, so in reality it'd be a little worse than this).
Which means that, if you hit "SIM LOTTERY" button on Tankathon a large enough amount of tries, and you average the results, it should be around 8.02 (the more tries, the closer).

[KingKev]

It's probabilities, and it's pretty logical if you think about it. Say you play a game where you flip a coin and you win $1 if it's heads or lose $1 of it's tails. What's the value you'd expect to make if you play the game?
Well, if you only play once, there's no chance you'll break even: you'll either win $1 or lose $1. Yet the expected value is 0: if you play enough times, you'll see that, on average, you'll neither win nor lose.
That's called expected value, which is the value you'd expect (the random variable) to have. You get it by adding each value times its probability of occurrence.
In such case would be E(X) = 0.5 · 1 + 0.5 · (-1) = 0
Applying the same principle to the lottery, you'd get expected value of Spurs’ pick = 1 · 0.045 + 2 · 0.048 + 3 · 0.052+ 4 · 0.057 + 5 · 0 + 6 · 0 + 7 · 0 + 8 · 0 + 9 · 0.507 + 10 · 0.259 + 11 · 0.03 + 12 · 0.001+ 13 · 0 + 14 · 0 = 8.02 (actually there's a VERY small chance at 13, so in reality it'd be a little worse than this).
Which means that, if you hit "SIM LOTTERY" button on Tankathon a large enough amount of tries, and you average the results, it should be around 8.02 (the more tries, the closer).

Did you really just explain 9th grade expected value?

[Ariel]

Did you really just explain 9th grade expected value?
8th :lol I've seen worse misunderstandings here
Time goes slowly until tomorrow :lol

[JPB]

I propose we permaban all the posters who came out with a top 4 pick if spurs don't get it.

[Russ]

It's probabilities, and it's pretty logical if you think about it. Say you play a game where you flip a coin and you win $1 if it's heads or lose $1 of it's tails. What's the value you'd expect to make if you play the game?
Well, if you only play once, there's no chance you'll break even: you'll either win $1 or lose $1. Yet the expected value is 0: if you play enough times, you'll see that, on average, you'll neither win nor lose.
That's called expected value, which is the value you'd expect (the random variable) to have. You get it by adding each value times its probability of occurrence.
In such case would be E(X) = 0.5 · 1 + 0.5 · (-1) = 0, which is a value that is impossible to get in one experiment.
Applying the same principle to the lottery, you'd get expected value of Spurs’ pick = 1 · 0.045 + 2 · 0.048 + 3 · 0.052+ 4 · 0.057 + 5 · 0 + 6 · 0 + 7 · 0 + 8 · 0 + 9 · 0.507 + 10 · 0.259 + 11 · 0.03 + 12 · 0.001+ 13 · 0 + 14 · 0 = 8.02 (actually there's a VERY small chance at 13, so in reality it'd be a little worse than this).
Which means that, if you hit "SIM LOTTERY" button on Tankathon a large enough amount of tries, and you average the results, it should be around 8.02 (the more tries, the closer).

Right. Duh. (Perhaps I should have referred to statistics as sometimes "ironic" rather than "crazy.")

[Brazil]

I gave it a whirl and came up 10 :(

I did it once more and while the Spurs stayed at 9, OKC got picks 1 & 2.

did it 10 times.. 80% went 9 the rest 10

[Mr. Body]

I just don't want to drop to 10.

[KingKev]

I combobulated my simulations in NBA Live 95 and every time we got the 9th pick.

[Russ]

It's probabilities, and it's pretty logical if you think about it. Say you play a game where you flip a coin and you win $1 if it's heads or lose $1 of it's tails. What's the value you'd expect to make if you play the game?
Well, if you only play once, there's no chance you'll break even: you'll either win $1 or lose $1. Yet the expected value is 0: if you play enough times, you'll see that, on average, you'll neither win nor lose.
That's called expected value, which is the value you'd expect (the random variable) to have. You get it by adding each value times its probability of occurrence.
In such case would be E(X) = 0.5 · 1 + 0.5 · (-1) = 0, which is a value that is impossible to get in one experiment.
Applying the same principle to the lottery, you'd get expected value of Spurs’ pick = 1 · 0.045 + 2 · 0.048 + 3 · 0.052+ 4 · 0.057 + 5 · 0 + 6 · 0 + 7 · 0 + 8 · 0 + 9 · 0.507 + 10 · 0.259 + 11 · 0.03 + 12 · 0.001+ 13 · 0 + 14 · 0 = 8.02 (actually there's a VERY small chance at 13, so in reality it'd be a little worse than this).
Which means that, if you hit "SIM LOTTERY" button on Tankathon a large enough amount of tries, and you average the results, it should be around 8.02 (the more tries, the closer).


8th :lol I've seen worse misunderstandings here
Time goes slowly until tomorrow :lol

The problem is, this is feast or famine. The average (or mean) doesn't "mean" much here.

You can talk about the the average house price or the average salary of a cohort. It's meaningful to talk about that average (or mean) because that number is a possible result that can lead to further understanding of realistic probabilities (even though it's unlikely that any one house/salary will precisely equal that average or mean). That statistical analysis leads somewhere.

The problem with the NBA draft (at least where the Spurs are) is that the average (or mean) is not theoretically possible. The Spurs can get 1-4 or 9-12, nothing in between. And "in between" is exactly where the average (or mean) falls.

Here, only the raw numbers matter -- the Spurs have about a 20.2% chance at 1-4 and about a 79.8% chance at 9-12. To a gambler, that's 4-1 against. The average (or mean) is somewhat less "mean"ingful here. (And the fact that the average result is a pick that is unavailable to the Spurs is still at least slightly funny. And please don't bore with an analysis of coin flips where the average/mean is also unatainable.)

[offset formation]

I propose we permaban all the posters who came out with a top 4 pick if spurs don't get it.

Agreed. And I am one of them. Did one roll. Got 4th.

But I'm mentally preparing myself for 9 or worse, so I'm kinda pre-punishing myself.

[CGD]

Wow, this snuck up on me. Fingers crossed!

[Biggems]

I just did a mock at fanspo.com

9 - Jabari Smith (Keenan Murray was available)
20 - Ousmane Dieng
25 - Leonard Miller
38 - Gabriele Procida

[KingKev]

I wonder what the market would be to trade back from #1 to 3 if we landed the top pick?

[bluebellmaniac]

Less than 24 hours before we know...

[CGD]

I wonder what the market would be to trade back from #1 to 3 if we landed the top pick?

What did Philly give up for the privilege of drafting Fultz again?

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

THUMP THAT BIBLE DAVID

[heyheymymy]

prayingdog.jpg

[bluebellmaniac]

About 15 hrs to go...

[exstatic]

What did Philly give up for the privilege of drafting Fultz again?

A lottery pick from Memphis that later became….drumroll

Romeo Langford.

[CGD]

A lottery pick from Memphis that later became….drumroll

Romeo Langford.

Haha, really?? At the time so much was written about how shrewd they were and their growing war chest of picks. It all looks nice until you convert those picks into Romeo freaking Lankford

[Atl Spur]

I like Romeo…….

[exstatic]

I like Romeo…….

I kinda do, too. He was drafted out of IU with the reputation as a scorer, but was stuck behind Tatum, Brown and Smart, so he worked his ass off to be a defender to earn minutes. He’s had some injuries, but nothing serious.

[baseline bum]

Haha, really?? At the time so much was written about how shrewd they were and their growing war chest of picks. It all looks nice until you convert those picks into Romeo freaking Lankford

They did convert that war chest of picks into Tatum, Brown, Smart, and Robert Williams III and the only significant players on their team who weren't drafted by them are Horford and White. And they probably have to be considered the title favorites right now. What I'd give to see the Spurs able to pull off similar over the next ~5 years.

[rascal]

Spurs will get into the top 4.

I guess halftime of the Boston/Miami game is when they will have the lottery.

Be prepared to hear when they get to the 9th pick the Spurs name won't be called, meaning they have moved into the top 4.
I can see Robinson with a fist pump and smile.

[mo7888]

Spurs will get into the top 4.

I guess halftime of the Boston/Miami game is when they will have the lottery.

Be prepared to hear when they get to the 9th pick the Spurs name won't be called, meaning they have moved into the top 4.
I can see Robinson with a fist pump and smile.

I think its right before the game tonight...

[rascal]

I wonder what the market would be to trade back from #1 to 3 if we landed the top pick?

That would be a good move.

[exstatic]

I wonder what the market would be to trade back from #1 to 3 if we landed the top pick?

It would depend on who holds #3, and what’s in their future pick stash. A LOT of things will be clearer in about 8 hours.

[KingKev]

It would depend on who holds #3, and what’s in their future pick stash. A LOT of things will be clearer in about 8 hours.

Agreed. Chet, Smith and PB are all about personal preference so if you land the top pick and someone has a know interest in 1 of the 3 a few spots back it might net you future FRP. It’s like the difference between a hot blonde, a hot brunnette and a hot red head. If someone is only into blondes might be worth trading back.

[bluebellmaniac]

About 7 hours to go...

[tim_duncan_fan]

Half the reason I want the #1 pick is so we can fight over what to do with it and have 75% of the fans be mad whichever way the pick goes lol.

I lean towards, "don't do it," on Holmgren.

[bluebellmaniac]

5 hrs to go...

[exstatic]

Half the reason I want the #1 pick is so we can fight over what to do with it and have 75% of the fans be mad whichever way the pick goes lol.

I lean towards, "don't do it," on Holmgren.

This forum argues over anything and everything, regardless.

[KingKev]

Imagine if we drop position?? Spurstalk conspiracists are you ready??? Roll call :madrun

[Leetonidas]

Forecasting a 20% chance of massive semen cloud tonight in San Antonio :hungry:

[Sugus]

Let's get it bois. :flag::lobt2:

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Forecasting a 20% chance of massive semen cloud tonight in San Antonio :hungry:

:lol

[Ocotillo]

I recall the year we won the golden ticket to draft TD. My kids were in the room with me and the look on their faces as their Dad literally lost it and was dancing and screaming in the living room.

[bluebellmaniac]

Under 4 hrs to go...

[Seventyniner]

I recall the year we won the golden ticket to draft TD. My kids were in the room with me and the look on their faces as their Dad literally lost it and was dancing and screaming in the living room.

Eyewitnesses tell me my dad did something similar with the D-Rob lottery win.

[Spurs Homer]

D. Rob saved the franchise before…

im thinking his mojo might repeat spurs history tonite…

[slick'81]

Fingers crossed for a jump to the top4 for sa

[rascal]

Would rather get 4th than 1st as I don't want the spurs to have a chance at making the mistake of drafting Chet.

[KingKev]

On this day in 1987 we also won the lottery….

[jjspur]

Would rather get 4th than 1st as I don't want the spurs to have a chance at making the mistake of drafting Chet.
I agree. Not a Chet fan. I believe he will get injured in summer league and not show much until December or later. That's way too late for a first pick. Again not a fan.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Anyone know where I can stream it?

[Ariel]

I wonder what the market would be to trade back from #1 to 3 if we landed the top pick?
That's my dream scenario. Two times something similar happened were in 2017, when the Celtics traded down from 1 to 3 with the 76ers (Celtics ended up with Tatum + a pick -eventually no. 14 in 2019, used on our own Langford- and the 76ers with Fultz), and 2018 when Atlanta traded down from 3 to 5 (Atlanta got Trae Young + a pick -eventually no. 10 in 2019, used on Cam Reddish-, and Dallas got Luka). I know the latter is not a no. 1, but Dallas paid as if it were, since they knew damn well Luka was a franchise player and the clear cut top pick.
A fair trade could be, if we get no. 1 and OKC gets 3/4, that they throw in no. 12 to make it work, but I have a feeling OKC is comfortable picking all the way down to 5 (Sharpe), and they'll take Dieng at 12. Also, by the FO history I'm not sure they'd be willing to make the gamble of trading down, and they may just take their guy at no. 1, even if they could get him later on. But I'll be extremely happy with something like that.

[Ariel]

Anyone know where I can stream it?
Same. It's on ESPN, so I think http://buffstream.io/nbabuffstreams1 should do the trick... but I'll be looking for alternatives and will let you know otherwise.

[pad300]

I agree. Not a Chet fan. I believe he will get injured in summer league and not show much until December or later. That's way too late for a first pick. Again not a fan.

Man the internet psychics are out in force tonight...

[rascal]

On this day in 1987 we also won the lottery….

Many things pointing to the Spurs getting into the top four.

I can see David Robinson fist pumping with a big smile when they get to the 9th pick and don't call the Spurs name, meaning the spurs are in the top 4.

[rascal]

I agree. Not a Chet fan. I believe he will get injured in summer league and not show much until December or later. That's way too late for a first pick. Again not a fan.

Even if he doesn't get injured, I don't like Holmgren's game. What an ugly looking game. I don't think he is all that good. I like other players where he is getting drafted better.

[Rev Hill]

Time to dust off the Chameleon!https://a-z-animals.com/media/2021/06/Most-Colorful-Animals_-Panther-Chameleon.jpg

[KingKev]

Man the internet psychics are out in force tonight...

Hahaha didn’t realize Miss Cleo was a Spurs fan.

[bluebellmaniac]

Under 2 hrs to go...

[Ariel]

The problem is, this is feast or famine. The average (or mean) doesn't "mean" much here.

You can talk about the the average house price or the average salary of a cohort. It's meaningful to talk about that average (or mean) because that number is a possible result that can lead to further understanding of realistic probabilities (even though it's unlikely that any one house/salary will precisely equal that average or mean). That statistical analysis leads somewhere.

The problem with the NBA draft (at least where the Spurs are) is that the average (or mean) is not theoretically possible. The Spurs can get 1-4 or 9-12, nothing in between. And "in between" is exactly where the average (or mean) falls.

Here, only the raw numbers matter -- the Spurs have about a 20.2% chance at 1-4 and about a 79.8% chance at 9-12. To a gambler, that's 4-1 against. The average (or mean) is somewhat less "mean"ingful here. (And the fact that the average result is a pick that is unavailable to the Spurs is still at least slightly funny. And please don't bore with an analysis of coin flips where the average/mean is also unatainable.)
Well, obviously. That's what I meant with the coin flip analogy, which illustrates that in the simplest terms. The problem, in any case, is not with the draft, but with a made up column in a random site (Tankathon), or more precisely, with people trying to make sense of it in a way different from what it was intended, trying to fit a square peg in a round hole.

[baseline bum]

Many things pointing to the Spurs getting into the top four.

I can see David Robinson fist pumping with a big smile when they get to the 9th pick and don't call the Spurs name, meaning the spurs are in the top 4.

I'll fist pump if they get to the 10th pick without calling the Spurs name tbh.

[R. DeMurre]

That's my dream scenario. Two times something similar happened were in 2017, when the Celtics traded down from 1 to 3 with the 76ers (Celtics ended up with Tatum + a pick -eventually no. 14 in 2019, used on our own Langford- and the 76ers with Fultz), and 2018 when Atlanta traded down from 3 to 5 (Atlanta got Trae Young + a pick -eventually no. 10 in 2019, used on Cam Reddish-, and Dallas got Luka). I know the latter is not a no. 1, but Dallas paid as if it were, since they knew damn well Luka was a franchise player and the clear cut top pick.
A fair trade could be, if we get no. 1 and OKC gets 3/4, that they throw in no. 12 to make it work, but I have a feeling OKC is comfortable picking all the way down to 5 (Sharpe), and they'll take Dieng at 12. Also, by the FO history I'm not sure they'd be willing to make the gamble of trading down, and they may just take their guy at no. 1, even if they could get him later on. But I'll be extremely happy with something like that.


That strategy by Boston in 2017 was brilliant, even if it didn't yield results with the extra pick. Boston knew Philly loved Fultz and that the Lakers wanted Ball, and they themselves had Tatum #1 on their board, so picking up that extra asset with the trade was such a smart way to benefit doubly from winning the lottery. That move reminds me of the 2028 pick swap the Spurs got from Boston in the White trade.

Bam Adebayo turned out to be the steal of that 2017 draft, going #14-- which is an optimistic bit of history for Spurs fans even if they don't move up.

[exstatic]

That strategy by Boston in 2017 was brilliant, even if it didn't yield results with the extra pick. Boston knew Philly loved Fultz and that the Lakers wanted Ball, and they themselves had Tatum #1 on their board, so picking up that extra asset with the trade was such a smart way to benefit doubly from winning the lottery. That move reminds me of the 2028 pick swap the Spurs got from Boston in the White trade.

Bam Adebayo turned out to be the steal of that 2017 draft, going #14-- which is an optimistic bit of history for Spurs fans even if they don't move up.

Lavine was the #13 pick in his draft. Not a superstar, but a multiple All Star.

[rascal]

That's my dream scenario. Two times something similar happened were in 2017, when the Celtics traded down from 1 to 3 with the 76ers (Celtics ended up with Tatum + a pick -eventually no. 14 in 2019, used on our own Langford- and the 76ers with Fultz), and 2018 when Atlanta traded down from 3 to 5 (Atlanta got Trae Young + a pick -eventually no. 10 in 2019, used on Cam Reddish-, and Dallas got Luka). I know the latter is not a no. 1, but Dallas paid as if it were, since they knew damn well Luka was a franchise player and the clear cut top pick.
A fair trade could be, if we get no. 1 and OKC gets 3/4, that they throw in no. 12 to make it work, but I have a feeling OKC is comfortable picking all the way down to 5 (Sharpe), and they'll take Dieng at 12. Also, by the FO history I'm not sure they'd be willing to make the gamble of trading down, and they may just take their guy at no. 1, even if they could get him later on. But I'll be extremely happy with something like that.

I was thinking the OKC scenario might be a possible option but another more far fetch option is Charlotte and San Antonio both moving into the top 4, Sa at 1 and Charlotte at 3 or 4, Sa 1 and 25 for Charlotte's 3 and 15.

There is not a clear number 1 pick this year so the value at number 1 is not as high as other years. I don't see teams reaching for number 1 and trading valuable assets to get that number 1 pick.

[Ariel]

That strategy by Boston in 2017 was brilliant, even if it didn't yield results with the extra pick. Boston knew Philly loved Fultz and that the Lakers wanted Ball, and they themselves had Tatum #1 on their board, so picking up that extra asset with the trade was such a smart way to benefit doubly from winning the lottery. That move reminds me of the 2028 pick swap the Spurs got from Boston in the White trade.

Bam Adebayo turned out to be the steal of that 2017 draft, going #14-- which is an optimistic bit of history for Spurs fans even if they don't move up.
Yes it was. I fact, Ainge PURPOSEFULLY misled the media, spreading the word that they were high on Fultz, knowing full well that they NEVER intended to pick him, and Tatum was their guy. In fact, Ainge admitted later on that they would have picked Tatum at no. 1 anyway.
That draft had a lot of value later on: Donovan Mitchell at 13, Bam at 14, John Collins at 19, Jarrett Allen at 22, OG Anunoby at 23, Kuzma at 27, Derrick White at 29, Josh Hart at 30, Dillon Brooks at 45, Monte Morris at 51... I think something similar could happen here.

[rascal]

If Robinson has that lucky Chameleon with him, it's a done deal.

[GAustex]

I like Romeo…….

That says a lot
Homie a scrub

[offset formation]

I cant wait to see the meltdown on this board if we secure a top-4 pick. The infighting will be epic, since theres not really a concensus pick like the last time we were in the top spot

[KingKev]

That says a lot
Homie a scrub

hahahahaha

Langford had promise coming out of college but I don’t think he makes it past training camp. Super woke Pop is very complimentary and patronizing of any new addition but hasn’t said a thing about Langford.

[Dex]

I cant wait to see the meltdown on this board if we secure a top-4 pick. The infighting will be epic, since theres not really a concensus pick like the last time we were in the top spot

I fully expect to be whelmed in roughly 45 minutes.

[Thomas82]

I fully expect to be whelmed in roughly 45 minutes.

Me too. Next year would be the better year to have the #1 pick anyway.

[Strategic]

Nothing like knowing the exact hour you’re gonna get screwed.

[Degoat]

Any links?

[John B]

13 minutes to go :wakeup

[Ariel]

Any links?
So far: http://cdn.sportcast.life/nginx.php?id=44&ask=1652832000&lgt=3

[Dejounte]

Keeping my expectations low

[Uriel]

With all the people openly saying the Spurs will win the lottery and introducing bad karma, I will go out and say the Spurs’ pick will surely fall to #12.

[Dejounte]

Paolo is locked in. This dude is a future star.

[R. DeMurre]

9 minutes!!

[KingKev]

Paolo is locked in. This dude is a future star.

Both he and Chet said all the right things in their media sessions. Both very confident.

[John B]

3 more minutes :wakeup

[Uriel]

Anyone have a link to a stream?

[Ariel]

30 seconds i'm high, the next 30 I'm down... I think need some lithium...

[Ariel]

Anyone have a link to a stream?
Already posted it: http://cdn.sportcast.life/nginx.php?id=44&ask=1652832000&lgt=3

[John B]

It's time. Let's go!!!

[Ariel]

Who gives a f about Horford... bring the lottery!

[baseline bum]

Now they'll spend ten minutes introducing all the team representatives

[spurraider21]

Keeping my expectations low
how low? 3? 2? 1?

[spurraider21]

Now they'll spend ten minutes introducing all the team representatives
should give you enough time to make a little progress in Sekiro tbh

[Seventyniner]

Still feels bad to see the Spurs even here, but let's make the most of it.

[baseline bum]

should give you enough time to make a little progress in Sekiro tbh

Getting ready to start Dragon Quest 3 tbh. Dying Light 2 was disappointing as hell after Elden Ring.

[LeBowen]

I tune in and it's fucking Perkins at the desk. Instant mute.

[Dex]

Now they'll spend ten minutes introducing all the team representatives

ESPN presents the KIA NBA Draft Lottery sponsored by MtnDew! The Little Debbie 14th pick will go to...SOMEBODY AFTER THIS COMMERCIAL BREAK

[KingKev]

Wow Admiral looks 6’9 beside Chet, Paolo and Jabari LOL

[Uriel]

All three of those guys look as big or bigger than the Admiral at 7”1.

[timvp]

Damn, Chet is like 7-foot-6 apparently, ha.

[John B]

Wow Chet just towers over the Banchero and Smith

[PhantomDashCam]

Admiral sighting. Chet looks like he’s wearing lifts. :lol

[John B]

DRob right beside Chet. Good omen :bobo

[John B]

Chet looks a little taller than DRob

[KingKev]

DRob isn’t 7’1. Childhood ruined.

[Uriel]

Could Robinson have shrunk since his playing years?

[3&D_TBH]

May the basketball gods smile on us once again tonight!

[BatManu20]

Could Robinson have shrunk since his playing years?

Definitely. He’s lost at least an inch, maybe more. Gravity does a hell of a number to your discs over time.

[KingKev]

Woke Pop should have sent Becky.

[baseline bum]

Fuck Spurs pick 9th

[Robz4000]

Welp, 9 it is.

[lefty20]

Fuck!

[Uriel]

Aghhhh

[Dex]

LOL dropped to 9th

:pctoss

[LeBowen]

Why does everything about this franchise have be so boring? :rollin

[Robz4000]

:lmao Kings get to waste another high pick

[BatManu20]

Lol y’all set yourself up for disappointment thinking we were gonna move up

[BatManu20]

Lol y’all set yourself up for disappointment thinking we were gonna move up

[Dex]

I am whelmed.

[Ariel]

There's a delay over here guys... explain something other than fck, :lol

[Dex]

There's a delay over here guys... explain something other than fck, :lol

Silver announced he is taking away our 1999 championship due to the shortened season

[baseline bum]

Another fucking wasted season. Should have tanked.

[John B]

9th pick :lmao

[John B]

bye-bye Chet :pctoss

[Uriel]

At least we didn’t drop, that in itself is a victory.

[Uriel]

At least we didn’t drop, that in itself is a victory.

[John B]

Fuck these tanking teams getting rewarded

[BackHome]

Just glad we didn’t get 10th or 11th - Now the real work starts!!!!

[BackHome]

Just glad we didn’t get 10th or 11th - Now the real work starts!!!!

[BatManu20]

Banchero headed to OKC or Houston :lol

[Robz4000]

:lol Magic gonna tank again next season too

[LeBowen]

At least the Rockets didn't get it. :lmao

[John B]

Chet laughing at possible destination Magic :lmao

[Leetonidas]

Spurs should be calling Sacramento and OKC about those picks asap

[Robz4000]

Banchero headed to OKC :lol

:lol Kings will have Ivey and Fox ballhogging while bleeding points on the other end

[Biggems]

All three of those guys look as big or bigger than the Admiral at 7”1.

they were on an elevated platform.

[RC_Drunkford]

went as expected. But let's not sign Ayton or LaVine. Let's just go with the 9th pick and then pick 14th next season. I'm sure at some point we will be contenders again going that route :lol

[Robz4000]

Will the Thunder draft Holgrem and play him and Poku at the same time?

[Mugen]

:lol Yeah, tanking works tbh.

[JuneJive]

At least there is no can't-miss-prospect out there.

[Dex]

Well, at least we can watch Orlando ruin another career.

[lmbebo]

damn

[Barfunk]

:bang

[slick'81]

Still a top 10. Spurs gonna need some luck to get outta that 10-12th seed