Jabari Smith - 2022 NBA Draft Prospect

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/jabari-smith-san-antonio-spurs-2022-nba-draft/

You can make a strong argument that Jabari Smith should be the target if the Spurs get the first pick. I don't quite agree ... but I understand. I'd rather the Spurs gamble on a prospect with a higher ceiling but Smith's likely outcomes are all extremely valuable.

[BatManu20]

Rashard Lewis 2.0, but with better defense. We’d be lucky to have him tbh.

[lmbebo]

Thanks.

I think I would have 1. Banchero 2. Smith 3. Chet though skill wise I think Chet is better than Smith. I just have too many concerns over Chet's physique.

[BatManu20]

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[Russ]

1?

1A?

:flag:

[BatManu20]

OKj7Be-iAsc

BOkcqRzEyqs

[KingKev]

My pick. For all the optimism spurstalk has for Primo almost solely on age I’d think it would be easy for others here to see Smith have the potential to further develop his game on the offensive end.

[KingKev]

Rashard Lewis 2.0, but with better defense. We’d be lucky to have him tbh.

Good comparison.

Lewis was a solid 2nd round pick. I remember ppl knocking him for being a long skinny pf who shoots too many 3s LOL. We missed out on him in 98. He would have been a great young player to match with Timmy. I think we drafted Felipe Lopez and sent him to the Grizz for AD that year.

[Robz4000]

If the Spurs have the chance to draft him and really believe in the current young guys, they shouldn't even hesitate. Dude fits this current roster like a glove.

[Stump]

I'm an Auburn alumnus and fan, so I'm extremely biased, but Jabari should be #1 on the Spurs' big board. I agree that his offensive game is not dynamic yet, but his elite shooting makes his upside incredible. His defense improved greatly from high school to his one year at Auburn. His maturity and attitude is exactly what you want to see from a potential franchise player. He is younger than the other elite prospects.

If you're aiming to win championships, you take Jabari Smith with the #1 pick.

[DPG21920]

https://www.spurstalk.com/jabari-smith-san-antonio-spurs-2022-nba-draft/

You can make a strong argument that Jabari Smith should be the target if the Spurs get the first pick. I don't quite agree ... but I understand. I'd rather the Spurs gamble on a prospect with a higher ceiling but Smith's likely outcomes are all extremely valuable.



I struggle with Paolo the more I think of it. Isn’t Jabari Smith younger and he definitely shoots better? Yes, Paolo has some other skills and is much bulkier but man, I dont know that I can have Paolo over Chet or Jabari (more I can see argument over Jabari for sure, but even then its not clear cut to me). Depends on what you think of the shooting.

[The Truth #6]

Seems like Jabari would need to be complemented by a primary option that can penetrate and pass. We don’t exactly have that in Dejounte but Jabari’s presence would definitely open up the lane some for Dejounte to drive. Interesting to ponderhow it would all mesh. KJ and Jabbari on the court together really could open up the paint. Sucks that Yak never pursued his post game since college.

[JeffDuncan]

Another excellent writeup, timvp. Keep ‘em coming!

Your article mentions:
“ The statistic that jumps off the page is Smith’s 43.5% shooting on two-pointers. For a 6-foot-10 college player, that’s a very worrying number. ”

And it’s a very curious number, for a player who shoots 3s so well. What’s going on with his 2s?What I found on his shot chart may give an answer.

Shot chart, near the bottom of the page, here:

http://mavsdraft.com/jabari-smith-scouting-report/

A couple things stand out. On the chart, he’s good over most of the 2pt area, but he’s lousy at the baseline. Really bad there. A permanent problem? I doubt it. It implies he’s just never practiced enough shooting from the baseline to be comfortable with the different perspective it gives. Such a young player isn’t going to be well-practiced at everything.

Then, the chart shows he’s weak at finishing near the basket. Since he’s such a dedicated jump shooter, especially at longer range, and out in front of the basket, how much quality practice time has he spent at finishing, and working near the basket in general? Not a whole lot, I suspect.

Anyway, I think that his low 2pt percentage does not reflect any lack in his ability. It only looks like he has a couple well-defined holes in his game, that he needs to work on: the baseline, and action near the basket.

There’s no surprise for any young player that he’d have some holes in his game. But I’d say it’s rare to see things so clear on a shot chart. He needs to be drafted by a team that takes player development seriously, and can provide him with good, focused practice, to expand his game. Imo.

[Mr. Body]

Seems like a very high end role player, a supreme 3&D player. He also hit some clutch shots, can shoot over anybody.

Of course I would love that guy on the Spurs, but locked in to a top three pick salary? That's what gives me pause.

[pad300]

I have a top tier of 2 prospects at the top of this draft: Holmgren and Banchero. Why isn't Jabari there as well???

1) He's got NBA size and NBA athleticism, you can see that from the tape.
2) Jeff Duncan provided the shot chart - he doesn't finish near the basket.
3), he's a pretty average rebounder at the college level; 9.3/36 (for a 6'10" guy, that's not great).

These three things interrelate: Given 1, he should be a good finisher and a strong college rebounder. I think the answer is he's soft... Thus, I strongly suspect his career is going to be Rashard Lewis rather than Budget KD.

[jjspur]

Picking 1st or 2nd or even 3rd doesn't guarentee the best player. Look at this year's rookie of the year Scottie Barnes. He was selected 4th. While the first four selections all did fairly well, and will probably improve even more next season, Barnes had the best overall season. Other players selected even further down the line had pretty decent seasons as well. (Mobley & Wagner)
The first four players selected don't always turn out to be the best. Teams just think they are. In a few years we'll truly know if our guesses were correct. Time always tells.

[Spursfanfromafar]

I have a top tier of 2 prospects at the top of this draft: Holmgren and Banchero. Why isn't Jabari there as well???

1) He's got NBA size and NBA athleticism, you can see that from the tape.
2) Jeff Duncan provided the shot chart - he doesn't finish near the basket.
3), he's a pretty average rebounder at the college level; 9.3/36 (for a 6'10" guy, that's not great).

These three things interrelate: Given 1, he should be a good finisher and a strong college rebounder. I think the answer is he's soft... Thus, I strongly suspect his career is going to be Rashard Lewis rather than Budget KD.

He had a lower rebound and block rate because he played next to a behemoth in Walker Kessler and largely played as a perimeter big. His good numbers overall are an indication that he will be an excellent modern day PF.

[PhantomDashCam]

To elaborate further on the 2 PT FG%, Tsarks from The Ringer appeared on a Bill Simmons podcast recently and had an interesting point:

Out of the all guys who played college basketball and were taken in the top 5 in the last 10 drafts, Smith ranks dead last in that statistic.

That seems obscene for somebody with that particular size, skill and build.


https://youtu.be/qT7BYSycTJs

[Gibbz]

Rashard Lewis 2.0, but with better defense. We’d be lucky to have him tbh.

That sounds worthy of a #1 overall in today's NBA. Holmgren is my pick but Shard with elite defense would be a cheat code.

[Marco]

"It comes down to his overall offensive potential and the lack thereof. While he has extreme potential as a spot-up shooter, there are few signs that he’ll evolve into anything beyond that." Doesn't sound like a player deserving the 1 pick.

[KingKev]

Seems like a very high end role player, a supreme 3&D player. He also hit some clutch shots, can shoot over anybody.

Of course I would love that guy on the Spurs, but locked in to a top three pick salary? That's what gives me pause.

We locked in McDermott for more this past summer. Replace McLovin with Jabari Smith in the starting lineuo and we are a playoff team. The rookie salary scale shouldn’t be a concern.

[Chomag]

I see him as a safe pick, he looks like he could be a solid player but not much beyond that and and I wouldn't use a top pick on but if they do they could do worse I guess.

[R. DeMurre]

I have a top tier of 2 prospects at the top of this draft: Holmgren and Banchero. Why isn't Jabari there as well???

1) He's got NBA size and NBA athleticism, you can see that from the tape.
2) Jeff Duncan provided the shot chart - he doesn't finish near the basket.
3), he's a pretty average rebounder at the college level; 9.3/36 (for a 6'10" guy, that's not great).

These three things interrelate: Given 1, he should be a good finisher and a strong college rebounder. I think the answer is he's soft... Thus, I strongly suspect his career is going to be Rashard Lewis rather than Budget KD.

But Smith's rebound rate is a tad higher than Banchero's, who is the same height and 30 lbs bigger. Smith's block and steal rates are also higher than Banchero's, leading me to believe he's generally more active & engaged defensively than Paolo. So would you say Banchero is defensively soft? The comp that keeps popping up for Jabari is Rashard Lewis + defense, which is a lot different from just saying he's like Rashard Lewis.

[R. DeMurre]

The other comp for Smith is a 6'10" Klay Thompson. Thompson shot under 50% from 2 in his college years, improving each season, going 42.7%, 44.9%, and 46.6%. Then as a pro, he shot below 50% from 2 his first four seasons, followed by four seasons above 50%. But Jabari shot a higher 3pt% and a higher 2pt% than Klay in their freshmen years. Dirk as a 20 year old rookie in the NBA shot 45.5% from 2 and just a hair under 50% from there for his career. Jabari is still 18, and turns 19 next week.

[KingKev]

The other comp for Smith is a 6'10" Klay Thompson. Thompson shot under 50% from 2 in his college years, improving each season, going 42.7%, 44.9%, and 46.6%. Then as a pro, he shot below 50% from 2 his first four seasons, followed by four seasons above 50%. But Jabari shot a higher 3pt% and a higher 2pt% than Klay in their freshmen years. Dirk as a 20 year old rookie in the NBA shot 45.5% from 2 and just a hair under 50% from there for his career. Jabari is still 18, and turns 19 next week.

Nice insight. I don’t think this is a problem. Most prospects are going to have holes in their game they need to work on.

A 6’10, fairly mobile 19 yr old who looks to be a great 3pt shooter and solid/versatile defender already just needs to work on the simple stuff now? If Primo gets a pass for his age I would think this board would be in love with Jabari’s potential.

[exstatic]

But Smith's rebound rate is a tad higher than Banchero's, who is the same height and 30 lbs bigger. Smith's block and steal rates are also higher than Banchero's, leading me to believe he's generally more active & engaged defensively than Paolo. So would you say Banchero is defensively soft? The comp that keeps popping up for Jabari is Rashard Lewis + defense, which is a lot different from just saying he's like Rashard Lewis.

He’s looking at counting stats.

[pad300]

But Smith's rebound rate is a tad higher than Banchero's, who is the same height and 30 lbs bigger. Smith's block and steal rates are also higher than Banchero's, leading me to believe he's generally more active & engaged defensively than Paolo. So would you say Banchero is defensively soft? The comp that keeps popping up for Jabari is Rashard Lewis + defense, which is a lot different from just saying he's like Rashard Lewis.

I'll certainly say that Banchero's D & Rebounding is a concern for me... The reason he's in my first tier is that he is a true #1 offensive option, making his own and others shots. Jabari isn't, he's a guy who gets set up with shots by someone else.

[Mr. Body]

We locked in McDermott for more this past summer. Replace McLovin with Jabari Smith in the starting lineuo and we are a playoff team. The rookie salary scale shouldn’t be a concern.

It should. Those salaries start ballooning. It's not that hard to get rid of McDermott's salary. It's much harder to get rid of huge ones.

[KingKev]

It should. Those salaries start ballooning. It's not that hard to get rid of McDermott's salary. It's much harder to get rid of huge ones.

@ 120% of the rookie scale you are talking 10mm first year, 13mm year 4 for the number 1 pick.

It’s not hard to get rid of a rookie’s salary either. Don’t pick up the option. Where is this large increase you are talking about?

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

[R. DeMurre]

I'll certainly say that Banchero's D & Rebounding is a concern for me... The reason he's in my first tier is that he is a true #1 offensive option, making his own and others shots. Jabari isn't, he's a guy who gets set up with shots by someone else.


I see that, but I've watched a ton of Jabari in the last few weeks and there was no other player in college this year who could so easily pull up and shoot over a defender right in front of him, sometimes with a fake, a step back, or a jab step, but often even without that. The ease with which he can get quality three point looks is pretty amazing to me, even as the focus of the opposing team's defense.

[Mr. Body]

@ 120% of the rookie scale you are talking 10mm first year, 13mm year 4 for the number 1 pick.

It’s not hard to get rid of a rookie’s salary either. Don’t pick up the option. Where is this large increase you are talking about?

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

So you're saying you'd want to draft Jabari Smith and get rid of him after a few years?

[KingKev]

So you're saying you'd want to draft Jabari Smith and get rid of him after a few years?

You are slow.

You argued the rookie scale balloons and “its hard to get rid of huge ones” while arguing McDermott’s salary is easy to get out of. If for some reason Jabari Smith was a total bust his salary would be smaller than McDs and just as easy if not easier to not pick up his 4th yr option.

[Mr. Body]

You are slow.

No -- you're missing the point.

[JPB]

No -- you're missing the point.

Read again the discussion, mate. That's not what he's saying.

[KingKev]

No -- you're missing the point.

I’m not. You are more comfortable with the deal we gave McDermott this summer than Jabari Smith because in your opinion those contracts balloon and huge contracts are hard to get out of.

[Mr. Body]

I’m not. You are more comfortable with the deal we gave McDermott this summer than Jabari Smith because in your opinion those contracts balloon and huge contracts are hard to get out of.

Yes. Jabari Smith is an attractive player... to a certain point. Of course it'd be great to have a tall, great-shooting wing who can play very good perimeter defense. But is that all he is? He's not a three level scorer, he's not even a two level scorer. If we want to say he's Rashard Lewis, great. That's a player we could definitely use. But Rashard Lewis was regarded as a horrible contract back in the day. Yes, he'd be even more on point in today's offenses, but will that be all he can do?

I literally don't care about McDermott in this conversation. My point is where do you go when Jabari Smith, picked at #1-4, starts ballooning in terms of salary beyond what he does? Will you be regretting not drafting someone else - the Holmgren or the Banchero?

So, yes, you're missing the point. In the first years, Smith is probably a good fit, an exceptional role player who fixes a major need. But then what? Can he actually become adequate inside the arc? Can he do the bare minimum in creating his own shot? Or did you actually muff the pick?

[KingKev]

Yes. Jabari Smith is an attractive player... to a certain point. Of course it'd be great to have a tall, great-shooting wing who can play very good perimeter defense. But is that all he is? He's not a three level scorer, he's not even a two level scorer. If we want to say he's Rashard Lewis, great. That's a player we could definitely use. But Rashard Lewis was regarded as a horrible contract back in the day. Yes, he'd be even more on point in today's offenses, but will that be all he can do?

I literally don't care about McDermott in this conversation. My point is where do you go when Jabari Smith, picked at #1-4, starts ballooning in terms of salary beyond what he does? Will you be regretting not drafting someone else - the Holmgren or the Banchero?

So, yes, you're missing the point. In the first years, Smith is probably a good fit, an exceptional role player who fixes a major need. But then what? Can he actually become adequate inside the arc? Can he do the bare minimum in creating his own shot? Or did you actually muff the pick?

What is this ballooning? I posted the rookie scale. It features small yearly increases.

So I understand now that your argument is that you don’t think Jabari Smith is a top 4 pick. You are entitled to your opinion.

[Chinook]

Just to be clear, the fourth-year option for a first-overall pick this year is more than McD's salary. They're close enough for it to not matter, but it's higher.

Don't get me wrong, I don't actually think the Spurs are worried about the money owed to a pick in terms of that player being an albatross. It's true that a truly awful player making that much would be negative value and that even a decent player could be overpaid at that level. But who cares? Many teams have overpaid players on their team. It's not the hardest thing to swap them around. As an expiring with "potential", the player will almost certainly at least be considered near-neutral ballast. Think Bagley from this past year.

If the Spurs have a specific plan to spend cap space this off-season, then they might find it easier to do so if they have a ninth-overall pick rather than a first-overall pick. If they think the draft is flat, the extra money might affect their plans enough that they would want to trade down. But that's the only scenario I could imagine where the Spurs wouldn't be doing backflips over winning the lottery again.

[Dejounte]

If the best the draft has to offer is a Rudy Gayesque player who falls in love too often with taking inefficient, contested shots—then he should be the pick. If it’s a stronger draft than that, then other players should be the pick.

[KingKev]

If the best the draft has to offer is a Rudy Gayesque player who falls in love too often with taking inefficient, contested shots—then he should be the pick. If it’s a stronger draft than that, then other players should be the pick.

I think all 3 of Banchero, Chet and Smith have question marks.

Rudy Gayesque is a low blow though lol.

[Dejounte]

I think all 3 of Banchero, Chet and Smith have question marks.

Rudy Gayesque is a low blow though lol.

Rudy Gay isn’t a low blow. He was a borderline All Star during the first half of his career. Just because we know how he turned out (lack of success as a primary option) doesn’t negate how he was viewed for much of his career. People see a shooter and set the highest possible ceiling on them. He’s obviously not KD, so what is he? Yes, people are saying how good of a 3 pt shooter he is, but what exactly from his existing skills will carry him to be a top 25 NBA player in this league? Maybe Paul George is his ceiling? But Paul is much more explosive than Jabari. Rashard isn't a top player in today’s league even if you add defense.

[KingKev]

Rudy Gay isn’t a low blow. He was a borderline All Star during the first half of his career. Just because we know how he turned out (lack of success as a primary option) doesn’t negate how he was viewed for much of his career. People see a shooter and set the highest possible ceiling on them. He’s obviously not KD, so what is he? Yes, people are saying how good of a 3 pt shooter he is, but what exactly from his existing skills will carry him to be a top 25 NBA player in this league? Maybe Paul George is his ceiling? But Paul is much more explosive than Jabari. Rashard isn't a top player in today’s league even if you add defense.

Rudy had a solid career start to finish but Smith is probably already a better 3pt shooter and defender. It’s tough to see anyone in this draft become a top 25 player currently but this is often the case with many drafts. Last years draft was forecasted to be really poor and by the end if this season was looking pretty good.

You’ve put your stake in the sand which is understandable I guess we will have to see a few years from now how these guys pan out.

[Russ]

This guy is Mr. Opposite, like the Indian in “Little Big Man” who did everything backwards.

Jabari’s 6’10” but he’s a great three-point shooter (.420%). He’s 6’10” but he’s an 80% free throw shooter. But he’s also 6’10” and he’s only a 43.5% two-point shooter. Crazy.

Most guys that come to the Spurs can do everything but shoot. Then Chip takes over. With this guy, they probably wouldn’t even let Chip look at him. Don’t touch him. Pop would probably make Chip run out of the facility.

Regarding the negatives, a few things should be noted in Jabari’s defense. First, he’s young – the youngest of the Big Three Bigs in this draft. Jabari is also younger than Jaden Ivey, Johnny Davis, Keegan Murray, Bennedict Mathurin, TyTy Washington, Malaki Branham, Ochai Agbaji, Blake Wesley, Tari Eason, Mark Williams, Kendall Brown, MarJon Beauchamp, Jaden Hardy, Max Christie, Dyson Daniels, Kennedy Chandler, Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, EJ Liddell, and Patrick Baldwin (among many others). (On the other hand, he’s a whole week older than a guy I kinda like, Jeremy Sochan.)

Second, college basketball isn’t the ideal stage for him to show any penetration skills he has. The short three-point line and myriad of sophisticated hybrid zone-based defenses (way more elaborate and exotic than those in the NBA) don’t help. It’s hard for a big to get to the basket against those packed-in schemes. And often times you only see them once, especially against out of conference teams in the NCAA Tournament. The court is generally more open in the NBA and there aren’t as many dudes defending you just because they’re big hard-working physical guys who will someday chase a career in coaching (or insurance). The guys defending you in the NBA are mostly there because they can fill it up. (The difference between what bigs do in college and the NBA is crazy, both ways. Shooters can become post guys and post guys can become shooters. Karl Anthony Townes scored 10.3/game in college and shot 25% from three. Joel Embiid scored 11.2/game in college and shot 20% from three. Look at them now.)

Third, the highlights of Jabari getting to the hole and scoring are promising. He looks good when he actually does it – it’s not like he doesn’t have the physical skills, quickness, etc. (And, after all, he did score 16.9/game.)
So why the 43.5% success rate inside the arc? There is no easy answer. JeffDuncan suggests that he’s not bad from most of two-point land but is terrible on the baseline and finishing at the rim. He may be getting swarmed on drives and forced outside by packed-in defenses then shooting off-balance from the baseline. If so, he may have more open room to operate in the NBA. Maybe. In any event, a good three-point shooter who also shoots 80% from the line should be able (eventually) to become a good baseline shooter.

As for failing to finish, that might be fixed by experience and coaching. This would be the perfect project upon which Manu could earn his coaching stripes – Jabari may need Manu’s input way more than Chip’s, an unusual phenomenon in Spursland. In any event, a lot of young talented players have a hard time finishing at the rim, even after wowing everybody to get there in the first place, even when finishing is a way bigger part of their game than Jabari’s. Our own Dejounte Murray, for example, struggled for years to finish even though that was a way bigger part of his game than Jabari’s. But he eventually got it. Because he was relentless and just kept trying.

Which brings us to the next criticism – it has been suggested that Jabari may be soft. That’s a legitimate concern – if that’s the case, all bets are off. But in watching him, that doesn’t jump out at you. He defends well and looks like he’s moving with a purpose. His body is young and somewhat willowy, but I don’t think he is (or will be) soft.

It appears at least conceivable that Jabari will be one of that rare breed -- a better player in the NBA than in college. It’s a different game. College rewards outside shooting by its short three-point line and packed-in defenses. Jabari responded to those rules by becoming a great outside shooter. But a truly high-end player will respond to, and adapt to, his circumstances. I think his talent may encompass way more than what we’ve seen up to now.

In short, I’m not saying the Spurs should take Jabari Smith over Banchero or Holmgren. It’s a close call with many arguments in all directions (but I do hope that, somehow, that question becomes relevant). All I’m saying is that to declare that his ceiling is that of a high-end role player seems a bit premature at this point.

Come to think of it, Tim Duncan was way better in the NBA than international ball (FIBA), even though the players he faced in the NBA were generally better. And come to think of it, FIBA also had a short-porch and played lot of zone. (And, no, I’m not saying Jabari Smith will become the next Tim Duncan, or anything close. He won’t.)

As to Jabari, only time will tell, but so far I kind of like what I see.

[tonight...you]

This guy is Mr. Opposite, like the Indian in “Little Big Man” who did everything backwards.

Jabari’s 6’10” but he’s a great three-point shooter (.420%). He’s 6’10” but he’s an 80% free throw shooter. But he’s also 6’10” and he’s only a 43.5% two-point shooter. Crazy.

Most guys that come to the Spurs can do everything but shoot. Then Chip takes over. With this guy, they probably wouldn’t even let Chip look at him. Don’t touch him. Pop would probably make Chip run out of the facility.

Regarding the negatives, a few things should be noted in Jabari’s defense. First, he’s young – the youngest of the Big Three Bigs in this draft. Jabari is also younger than Jaden Ivey, Johnny Davis, Keegan Murray, Bennedict Mathurin, TyTy Washington, Malaki Branham, Ochai Agbaji, Blake Wesley, Tari Eason, Mark Williams, Kendall Brown, MarJon Beauchamp, Jaden Hardy, Max Christie, Dyson Daniels, Kennedy Chandler, Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, EJ Liddell, and Patrick Baldwin (among many others). (On the other hand, he’s a whole week older than a guy I kinda like, Jeremy Sochan.)

Second, college basketball isn’t the ideal stage for him to show any penetration skills he has. The short three-point line and myriad of sophisticated hybrid zone-based defenses (way more elaborate and exotic than those in the NBA) don’t help. It’s hard for a big to get to the basket against those packed-in schemes. And often times you only see them once, especially against out of conference teams in the NCAA Tournament. The court is generally more open in the NBA and there aren’t as many dudes defending you just because they’re big hard-working physical guys who will someday chase a career in coaching (or insurance). The guys defending you in the NBA are mostly there because they can fill it up. (The difference between what bigs do in college and the NBA is crazy, both ways. Shooters can become post guys and post guys can become shooters. Karl Anthony Townes scored 10.3/game in college and shot 25% from three. Joel Embiid scored 11.2/game in college and shot 20% from three. Look at them now.)

Third, the highlights of Jabari getting to the hole and scoring are promising. He looks good when he actually does it – it’s not like he doesn’t have the physical skills, quickness, etc. (And, after all, he did score 16.9/game.)
So why the 43.5% success rate inside the arc? There is no easy answer. JeffDuncan suggests that he’s not bad from most of two-point land but is terrible on the baseline and finishing at the rim. He may be getting swarmed on drives and forced outside by packed-in defenses then shooting off-balance from the baseline. If so, he may have more open room to operate in the NBA. Maybe. In any event, a good three-point shooter who also shoots 80% from the line should be able (eventually) to become a good baseline shooter.

As for failing to finish, that might be fixed by experience and coaching. This would be the perfect project upon which Manu could earn his coaching stripes – Jabari may need Manu’s input way more than Chip’s, an unusual phenomenon in Spursland. In any event, a lot of young talented players have a hard time finishing at the rim, even after wowing everybody to get there in the first place, even when finishing is a way bigger part of their game than Jabari’s. Our own Dejounte Murray, for example, struggled for years to finish even though that was a way bigger part of his game than Jabari’s. But he eventually got it. Because he was relentless and just kept trying.

Which brings us to the next criticism – it has been suggested that Jabari may be soft. That’s a legitimate concern – if that’s the case, all bets are off. But in watching him, that doesn’t jump out at you. He defends well and looks like he’s moving with a purpose. His body is young and somewhat willowy, but I don’t think he is (or will be) soft.

It appears at least conceivable that Jabari will be one of that rare breed -- a better player in the NBA than in college. It’s a different game. College rewards outside shooting by its short three-point line and packed-in defenses. Jabari responded to those rules by becoming a great outside shooter. But a truly high-end player will respond to, and adapt to, his circumstances. I think his talent may encompass way more than what we’ve seen up to now.

In short, I’m not saying the Spurs should take Jabari Smith over Banchero or Holmgren. It’s a close call with many arguments in all directions (but I do hope that, somehow, that question becomes relevant). All I’m saying is that to declare that his ceiling is that of a high-end role player seems a bit premature at this point.

Come to think of it, Tim Duncan was way better in the NBA than international ball (FIBA), even though the players he faced in the NBA were generally better. And come to think of it, FIBA also had a short-porch and played lot of zone. (And, no, I’m not saying Jabari Smith will become the next Tim Duncan, or anything close. He won’t.)

As to Jabari, only time will tell, but so far I kind of like what I see.
Awesome work. Much appreciated.

[PhantomDashCam]

A couple of questions that I’m having a hard time answering with Smith, that perhaps some who are comfortable being the #1 pick can assist with:

1. How does Smith generate Offensive advantages if his shot isn’t falling?

2. Is he a guy who “gets off” on shooting contested jumpers and such is it to the point that he’s unable to differentiate a good from bad shot?

This is probably going to bite me in the butt somewhat but I actually prefer Ivey and Murray ahead of him atm :oops

[mo7888]

I like Smith alot..2nd on my BB ahead of Chet and behind Banchero.. that said, all 3 are close...all have things that are concerning and all have an attribute that's really enticing... I couldn't gripe if we got anyone of the 3...

[tonight...you]

A couple of questions that I’m having a hard time answering with Smith, that perhaps some who are comfortable being the #1 pick can assist with:

1. How does Smith generate Offensive advantages if his shot isn’t falling?

2. Is he a guy who “gets off” on shooting contested jumpers and such is it to the point that he’s unable to differentiate a good from bad shot?

This is probably going to bite me in the butt somewhat but I actually prefer Ivey and Murray ahead of him atm :oops
If his shots aren't falling he's still playing plus defense.
I like a guy that has no fear of pulling up in the face of the defense, with his kind of percentage, but also the NBA is going to create a whole different plate of opportunities for him as opposed to how college was played.

[PhantomDashCam]

If his shots aren't falling he's still playing plus defense.
I like a guy that has no fear of pulling up in the face of the defense, with his kind of percentage, but also the NBA is going to create a whole different plate of opportunities for him as opposed to how college was played.

Thanks for the response. I worry about guys who consistently hunt for difficult shots. It either suggests to me that -

A) They are unable to create advantages off the catch/dribble/post-up,
B) The game comes so effortlessly to them, they genuinely can’t differentiate between a good and bad shot, or
C) There’s a thrill to hitting those tough ones, a feeling of self-affirmation that fuels a cyclical adrenaline hit

[John B]

I agree with the main discussion. Smith meets the immediate need and Spurs would be thrilled to get him. He has the sweetest stroke but will his game evolve to a multi-dimentional player which one expects from a overall #1 pick? Because I think right now he fits seamlessly with Poeltl, with Jac learning mire post-moves and a willing passer. But in time, you want your goto scorer to be the focal point of your offense. Right now it’s a toss between Banchero, the traditional big who can generate his own shots and facilitate, or Chet who has the best overall skills of all. Big problem, but a nice one IF Spurs are fortunate to get. Btw, #1 after rolling 5 times today.

[JPB]

A couple of questions that I’m having a hard time answering with Smith, that perhaps some who are comfortable being the #1 pick can assist with:

1. How does Smith generate Offensive advantages if his shot isn’t falling?

2. Is he a guy who “gets off” on shooting contested jumpers and such is it to the point that he’s unable to differentiate a good from bad shot?

This is probably going to bite me in the butt somewhat but I actually prefer Ivey and Murray ahead of him atm :oops

Honestly that's the kind of questions I'm not sure college basketball can totally answer. Those guys are still young and raw and can massively improve or reveal themselves in many areas. Some good shooters in college couldn't throw it in the ocean in the NBA and vice and versa... I think that's what spurs have always looked first... portential and personality to improve. TP was barely taking jump shots in his first year but working with Chip he developed a reliable mid range jumper. Nephew wasn't finished either, hence he felt at 15...

That would be too easy otherwise, right? That's the reason why there are busts and overlooked college players every year. Personality, professionalism and will to improve, assumion potential is there, are sometimes as important than raw skills.

[JeffDuncan]

A couple of questions that I’m having a hard time answering with Smith, that perhaps some who are comfortable being the #1 pick can assist with:

1. How does Smith generate Offensive advantages if his shot isn’t falling?


The answer is “gravity” and that basketball is a team sport. When a player is a good shooter, the defense can’t ignore him. When a tall player who’s a good shooter moves to the arc, a tall defender has to go with him. It opens up the middle, with wider driving lanes for your guards.



2. Is he a guy who “gets off” on shooting contested jumpers and such is it to the point that he’s unable to differentiate a good from bad shot?


He’s 19. His shot selection suks. Lol. You know it without even looking. There isn’t any 19-year old who has really good shot selection. They’re not seasoned enough yet, not experienced enough.

Don’t think of a draft prospect as if he were a ten-year NBA vet. If you’re looking at trading for a ten-year vet then of course you’d expect him to have good judgment about when to shoot. But a draftee? Nah. You just look at whether he’s basically a good shooter. You know he still has a lot to learn.



This is probably going to bite me in the butt somewhat but I actually prefer Ivey and Murray ahead of him atm :oops


I don’t know why that would bite you. There isn’t any sure-thing #1 pick in this draft. It’s considered a weak draft in that way. But in terms of good players, who’ll be able to find a spot in the NBA, it’s looking like it might be a pretty decent draft. Whether the Spurs ought to take Smith I have no idea. But I know he should be on the list of possibilities if they get a high enough pick.

[KingKev]

The whole “this is a weak draft” is just silly.

A year ago the 2021 draft was regarded as weak and the 2022 draft was regarded as strong. 1 year later here we are and the 2021 draft actually turned out pretty good; not our pick, but the top 5 or so and now this years draft is considered poor. It’s a recurring theme.

NBA twitter analysts have only made this worse.

[TD 21]

Rudy Gay isn’t a low blow. He was a borderline All Star during the first half of his career. Just because we know how he turned out (lack of success as a primary option) doesn’t negate how he was viewed for much of his career. People see a shooter and set the highest possible ceiling on them. He’s obviously not KD, so what is he? Yes, people are saying how good of a 3 pt shooter he is, but what exactly from his existing skills will carry him to be a top 25 NBA player in this league? Maybe Paul George is his ceiling? But Paul is much more explosive than Jabari. Rashard isn't a top player in today’s league even if you add defense.

I know Lewis is the popular comp, but I'd go Jackson Jr. Granted, he's a 4.5 (more of a 5) and far superior rim protector, but they're both essentially athletic/mobile 3 and D bigs.

[R. DeMurre]

Jabari's percentage at the rim is an area that needs improvement, but the idea that he's a one dimensional shooter is just not true. He's outstanding from anywhere around the elbow in addition to being great from all spots behind the three point line. He's basically elite from the free throw line back. His overall TS% is higher than Banchero's. He also gets to the free throw line more often than Banchero, which wouldn't be the case if he was timid or afraid of contact.
Best case scenario is the midrange of DeRozan plus the three point shooting of Dirk plus the FTA of Tatum/Jokic. Plus defense. That's not a one dimensional guy.

http://mavsdraft.com/jabari-smith-scouting-report/

[ginobilized]

I see Jabari Smith as having a ceiling closer to Jayson Tatum.
Check out their college stats

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Jayson-Tatum/Comparison/52034/Jabari-Smith-II/145673 (https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Jayson-Tatum/Comparison/52034/Jabari-Smith-II/145673)

[rascal]

It's much easier to raise your 2 pt shooting % near the basket than your perimeter shooting game.

Smith hits his FT and 3 pt at a good % so the low 2 pt. % is an anomaly that will correct naturally and nothing to be even be concerned about.

[KingKev]

It's much easier to raise your 2 pt shooting % near the basket than your perimeter shooting game.

Smith hits his FT and 3 pt at a good % so the low 2 pt. % is an anomaly that will correct naturally and nothing to be even be concerned about.

Good points. He does the things you dream of
a 6’10 PF doing. I think he can learn the small
stuff.

[Dejounte]

If the best the draft has to offer is a Rudy Gayesque player who falls in love too often with taking inefficient, contested shots—then he should be the pick. If it’s a stronger draft than that, then other players should be the pick.

https://twitter.com/sengunlicious/status/1615977958962774020?s

https://twitter.com/forsurenott/status/1616183721010282518?s

[Mr. Body]

I don't think he's necessarily a bad guy, from what I've seen, but that team is going to ruin players.

[XDT76]

That's why I don't like a team purposefully tank your guys does not have a sense of belonging and don't bother fighting.

[Mr. Body]

That's why I don't like a team purposefully tank your guys does not have a sense of belonging and don't bother fighting.

Exactly. It creates an awful loser environment where no one cares about each other on the court. Sengun still cares, but how long will that last? Smith probably did, but playing with KPJ and Greene has already poured acid over everything.

Also shows the need for good veteran leadership. I don't blame Gordon -- I don't think the young whippersnappers would listen to him anyway. And Boban is too busy shooting Goldfish commercials.

[J_Paco]

Off - topic, but I don't understand why Houston's management thought two inefficient chuckers starting together with no true PG is/was a good idea.

They need to jettison Porter Jr. for whatever they can get and draft a "true" PG in June.

[JPB]

Off - topic, but I don't understand why Houston's management thought two inefficient chuckers starting together with no true PG is/was a good idea.

They need to jettison Porter Jr. for whatever they can get and draft a "true" PG in June.

They like Wemby too.

[DPG21920]

His shooting has been a real disappointment and it’s clear now Banchero was the best prospect. I thought Jabari would immediately come in and be a legit 3PT shooter but it’s not the case and without that he’s not even a great prospect. His attitude seems questionable but everyone on HOU seems mentally out of it.

[dbestpro]

Poor BB IQ. Period.