2022 NBA Draft Lottery: What's at Stake for the Spurs

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/san-antonio-spurs-whats-stake-2022-nba-draft-lottery/

Any pick in the top four would be awesome. In this draft, picking fourth is about 90% as awesome as picking first.

https://i.imgur.com/fSzZnKz.jpg

[siraulo23]

basketball gods pleaseee :lol

[bluebellmaniac]

Get some sleep!

[Robz4000]

12th pick here we come.

[John B]

13 hours to go… :wakeup

[exstatic]

12th pick here we come.

If you ran the sim a large number of times, say a billion, we would get the #1 pick 45 times for every time we got pushed back to #12. A top 4 pick would pop up 203 times for every single time we got bumped back to #12.

[Uriel]

Given that there’s a 20% chance our pick moves up from #9 and a 30% chance it moves down, just landing at #9 should be considered a victory in itself.

[Spursfanfromafar]

For some vague/unexplained reason, my gut instinct says that Jabari Smith might soon be in a Spurs uniform. Here's hoping that becomes reality.

[lmbebo]

https://media.giphy.com/media/3orieTfp1MeFLiBQR2/giphy.gif

[DPG21920]

timvp: given that there don’t appear to be any Duncan/Lebron types how viable is trading into the top 4 in your opinion?

Do you think it’s doable since there are no perceived superstars? Or still a long shot?

[DPG21920]

Today is draft day.

Today is Tony Parkers birthday.

Spurs have best odds at pick 9.

Tony Parker wore number 9.

Do the math……

[exstatic]

timvp: given that there don’t appear to be any Duncan/Lebron types how viable is trading into the top 4 in your opinion?

Do you think it’s doable since there are no perceived superstars? Or still a long shot?

That’s pretty much a permanent situation. I don’t believe there will ever be another #1 pick who is an All Star and All NBA as a rookie. I won’t speak for LJ, but imo, 80% of the draft’s value is still in those 4 picks. It just takes 3 years to realize that Star power.

I can see narrow set of circumstances where a team may not think that Ivey will shoot well enough, and might trade back out of #4, but I can’t see #s 1-3 moving to anyone outside of the top 4. A team may pull a Boston, and trade out of #1 for future consideration, but it would only be to 2 or 3.

[The Truth #6]

Small market team.
Whispers of the team leaving.
Alright, Adam Silver. Time to step up and do what you have done for other teams: rig this shit and give us a top pick.

[DPG21920]

That’s pretty much a permanent situation. I don’t believe there will ever be another #1 pick who is an All Star and All NBA as a rookie. I won’t speak for LJ, but imo, 80% of the draft’s value is still in those 4 picks. It just takes 3 years to realize that Star power.

I can see narrow set of circumstances where a team may not think that Ivey will shoot well enough, and might trade back out of #4, but I can’t see #s 1-3 moving to anyone outside of the top 4. A team may pull a Boston, and trade out of #1 for future consideration, but it would only be to 2 or 3.

Prob agree overall - at least for what SA would have to offer (unless they offered up Dejounte). But I can see many teams fearing drafting Chet and worrying about him too. All the top 4 have some concerns either about ceiling or flaws in their games.

Will be interesting.

[exstatic]

To me, Ivey is the wildcard in the top 4. He can go 3 ways, depending on his personality and work ethic.

He can be like Sammich, not work on his game, bask in his draft status, his shot will not translate to the NBA, and he’ll bust. He can work reasonably hard, maintain his 36% after making the NBA leap, and be a borderline AS, or he can be an absolute bulldog, work his ass 24/7/365, and get his 3 pointer up to 40% and be a fucking monster.

You have to get a pretty good read on his personality. Without knowing that, I’d put the odds of the 3 scenarios at 45/50/5.

[exstatic]

Small market team.
Whispers of the team leaving.
Alright, Adam Silver. Time to step up and do what you have done for other teams: rig this shit and give us a top pick.

How about “team that didn’t blatantly pull the plug in February “?

[timvp]

timvp: given that there don’t appear to be any Duncan/Lebron types how viable is trading into the top 4 in your opinion?

Do you think it’s doable since there are no perceived superstars? Or still a long shot?

I don't think it'd be possible to trade into the top four without massively overpaying. It'd be nice to package 9/10 with 20 and/or 25 to move up ... but that probably only lands you the sixth pick at best.

Maybe Dejounte + 9 + 20 for 4 + trash contract would work but, yeah, that's an example of an overpayment.

[rascal]

To me, Ivey is the wildcard in the top 4. He can go 3 ways, depending on his personality and work ethic.

He can be like Sammich, not work on his game, bask in his draft status, his shot will not translate to the NBA, and he’ll bust. He can work reasonably hard, maintain his 36% after making the NBA leap, and be a borderline AS, or he can be an absolute bulldog, work his ass 24/7/365, and get his 3 pointer up to 40% and be a fucking monster.

You have to get a pretty good read on his personality. Without knowing that, I’d put the odds of the 3 scenarios at 45/50/5.

I see him as a hard worker. He plays hard with a lot of passion and energy in his game. Its not turned off and on but his motor and drive is always on.

He's nothing like low energy soft Sammich.
You're getting a top talent with Ivey, borderline all star or solid all star. 0/50/50

[RLT]

For some vague/unexplained reason, my gut instinct says that Jabari Smith might soon be in a Spurs uniform. Here's hoping that becomes reality.

For some reason, I feel the exact same way.

[JPB]

https://www.spurstalk.com/san-antonio-spurs-whats-stake-2022-nba-draft-lottery/

Any pick in the top four would be awesome. In this draft, picking fourth is about 90% as awesome as picking first.

https://i.imgur.com/fSzZnKz.jpg

Which tells about how this draft is good in terms of number of good players but not great in terms of great players.

[DPG21920]

I don't think it'd be possible to trade into the top four without massively overpaying. It'd be nice to package 9/10 with 20 and/or 25 to move up ... but that probably only lands you the sixth pick at best.

Maybe Dejounte + 9 + 20 for 4 + trash contract would work but, yeah, that's an example of an overpayment.

Ya - I dont think trading Dejounte + 9 + 20 makes sense. There’s a decent chance 2-3 of the top 4 never reach Murrays level and even if they do, I am not sure their ceilings are high enough above current DJ to warrant doing that.

I was thinking something more like (knowing SA isn’t this creative lol and it would be tough to do): SA lands pick 9 naturally. SA uses something like Jak + pick 25 to land pick 13-16. Now SA has 9, 13 & 20 and maybe that is good enough to get to 4?

Who knows and seems doubtful, but regardless, I would trade Jak +25 if it meant pick 13 anyways.

[Strategic]

Ready to get this shit over with. Just the pessimism in me but can’t help comparing Holmgren to Sam Bowie. Concerned about the strains of an 82 game grind.

[exstatic]

I see him as a hard worker. He plays hard with a lot of passion and energy in his game. Its not turned off and on but his motor and drive is always on.

He's nothing like low energy soft Sammich.
You're getting a top talent with Ivey, borderline all star or solid all star. 0/50/50

Playing hard is only half the battle. 90% of development happens outside of game time, and probably 2/3s of that happens outside of team time. It’s ridiculous that you see zero bust chance for the guy in the top 4 with the highest bust chance. He also has the highest or tied for the highest ceiling. That bust chance is what makes him the clear #4. If you only go by upside, he could be top 2, but if that shot doesn’t fall at a high clip, he could be Lonnie Walker in a flash. He CANNOT be a below average 3 point shooter and be an All Star level or higher player. He doesn’t do enough other stuff to make up for it, and he’s under sized for a SG.

[BatManu20]

Let’s just fast forward to the part where we select Dyson Daniels with the 9th pick tbh.

[rascal]

Playing hard is only half the battle. 90% of development happens outside of game time, and probably 2/3s of that happens outside of team time. It’s ridiculous that you see zero bust chance for the guy in the top 4 with the highest bust chance. He also has the highest or tied for the highest ceiling. That bust chance is what makes him the clear #4. If you only go by upside, he could be top 2, but if that shot doesn’t fall at a high clip, he could be Lonnie Walker in a flash. He CANNOT be a below average 3 point shooter and be an All Star level or higher player. He doesn’t do enough other stuff to make up for it, and he’s under sized for a SG.

0 chance Ivey is a bust excluding injury of course. The higher bust player is Chet.

Not sure he is going to be much more than an elite blocker at the NBA level. I don't see an elite offensive player or defensive player outside of his ability to rack up a number of blocked shots.

[Brazil]

Today is draft day.

Today is Tony Parkers birthday.

Spurs have best odds at pick 9.

Tony Parker wore number 9.

Do the math……

Same date than my kids tbh.. born May 17th

[bluebellmaniac]

Today is Lottery day. Not draft day.

[Mugen]

12th pick here we come.

tbh.

But that extra play-in game to get dunked on by NOLA again was worth it :lol

[lefty]

Today is draft day.

Today is Tony Parkers birthday.

Spurs have best odds at pick 9.

Tony Parker wore number 9.

Do the math……
Shit, we're gonna end up with a dude who dribbles dribbles dribbles aren't we?

[RC_Drunkford]

Adam Silver will rig the draft once again and the Trailblazers will end up in the top 4, because "excitement and ratings"

[offset formation]

If you ran the sim a large number of times, say a billion, we would get the #1 pick 45 times for every time we got pushed back to #12. A top 4 pick would pop up 203 times for every single time we got bumped back to #12.

So youre saying there's a chance?!?

[Mugen]

Adam Silver will rig the draft once again and the Trailblazers will end up in the top 4, because "excitement and ratings"

The Blazers are just as irrelevant as the Spurs tbh :lol

[timvp]

Let’s just fast forward to the part where we select Dyson Daniels with the 9th pick tbh.

Dyson Daniels with the 10th pick feels like the most Spursy of Spurs outcomes here, doesn't it :lol :cry :lol

[CGD]

^ no doubt. The Polish kid is a close second.

[mystargtr34]

NGL I got a good feeling about this lottery. Spurs deserve it for playing out the season strong.

[Mr. Body]

Given that there’s a 20% chance our pick moves up from #9 and a 30% chance it moves down, just landing at #9 should be considered a victory in itself.

Yeah, I just want to stay at #9. I don't expect to move up.

[JPB]

Same date than my kids tbh.. born May 17th

But can they play ball?

[RC_Drunkford]

The Blazers are just as irrelevant as the Spurs tbh :lol

they got Dame though

[KingKev]

OTD in 1987 we won the lottery.

[LeBowen]

Haven't followed this draft class at all, who's the best undersized guard with questionable range?

[R. DeMurre]

It's fun to look through all of the different forums and see who different fan bases think Adam Silver & the NBA will rig the lottery for :lol.

Rule #1: it's never for the fan's own team.

Lately, when I see fans from other sites claim it'll be the Spurs who benefit from the Almighty Undeniable Rig, it's because Silver and Pop share similar political leanings, or because the Spurs have a more wholesome image and fewer thugs on their teams historically.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Dyson Daniels with the 10th pick feels like the most Spursy of Spurs outcomes here, doesn't it :lol :cry :lol

Oh jeez....but true. :lol

[Ariel]

Agreed 100%
If we pick smart, 99% of the gains come from picking top 4, with the remaining 1% being the actual pick.

[Mugen]

they got Dame though

Silver probably wants to see him on the Lakers or some other big market. League doesn't give a shit about Portland tbh.

[Ariel]

Given that there’s a 20% chance our pick moves up from #9 and a 30% chance it moves down, just landing at #9 should be considered a victory in itself.
That the chances of going up are lower than the chances of going down is secondary. What really matters is that, with relatively similar odds, you have much more to gain (climbing from 9 to 1-4) than to lose (dropping from 9 to 10 or 11 -the rest are negligible-). I wish real life would give you those chances everyday.

[siraulo23]

we getting the 9th pick but getting a top 4 pick would be something eh

lottery starting soon

[ace3g]

Chet and David handshake!!!

[ace3g]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FS_8r5mUUAAayhq?format=jpg&name=large

[BatManu20]

Was gonna say, Chet looking down on D-Rob is wild. Think he’s lost an inch or two since his playing days though.

[ace3g]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FS_8lagWQAM-OPb?format=jpg&name=large

[siraulo23]

welp shit, 9th pick it is

[lmbebo]

Was hoping to jump into top 4 ...

[pookenstein]

Rockets apparently open to trade the #3 pick.

Via realgm:

The Houston Rockets were unlucky in the NBA Draft Lottery, as they were jumped by the Orlando Magic and the Oklahoma City Thunder. That dropped the Rockets from a pre-lottery spot of first overall to third overall.
For Houston general manager Rafael Stone, he feels the team is still in position to get a really good player. However, he added the Rockets will listen to trade offers for the third pick.

"If it's the case that (other teams) are interested in doing something, we're always available to listen," Stone said. "If there’s something that makes sense for both teams it’ll get done.”
Stone acknowledged that there is a sense of relief after the lottery, because now teams know where they'll be picking. Stone feels good about his potential options with the third pick.
“We’re really excited," Stone said. "I definitely think by picking third or trading, we’re going to be a materially more talented team than we were last year.”

Would they trade with us and if so, what would it take to get a deal done? #9, a contract like Doug's and a young player maybe? Would we do that for one of the top three prospects?
Something like #9, Doug and Langford (both on 1 year deals) for #3 and Gordon (2 years left) would work for example.

[slick'81]

Rockets apparently open to trade the #3 pick.

Via realgm:


Would they trade with us and if so, what would it take to get a deal done? #9, a contract like Doug's and a young player maybe? Would we do that for one of the top three prospects?

gonna take alot more then 9&mcdermoot. Whos the young player?

[pookenstein]

gonna take alot more then 9&mcdermoot. Whos the young player?

Just edited my post.
#9, Doug and Langford for #3 and Gordon. Doug and Romeo each have one year left, while Gordon has two at 19M.

[Chomag]

This is a draft Spurs should trade up most potential impact full players will be gone by 9th

[KingKev]

Rockets apparently open to trade the #3 pick.

Via realgm:


Would they trade with us and if so, what would it take to get a deal done? #9, a contract like Doug's and a young player maybe? Would we do that for one of the top three prospects?
Something like #9, Doug and Langford (both on 1 year deals) for #3 and Gordon (2 years left) would work for example.

Gordon is a team option in year two… unless they covet Langdord and/or McDougal for some strange reason they’d be getting 0 compensation for trading back 6 spots.

Keldon or Vassell might make that work…

[pookenstein]

Gordon is a team option in year two… unless they covet Langdord and/or McDougal for some strange reason they’d be getting 0 compensation for trading back 6 spots.

Keldon or Vassell might make that work…

Thanks for clearing that. Didn't check that. So this trade idea is dead. Lastet for about 27 minutes... :lol

[KingKev]

Thanks for clearing that. Didn't check that. So this trade idea is dead. Lastet for about 27 minutes... :lol

The cost to move from 9 to a top 3 pick without taking back a bad contract is DJM plus a future FRP.

[pookenstein]

The cost to move from 9 to a top 3 pick without taking back a bad contract is DJM plus a future FRP.

Yeah, I thought Gordon could be that (semi) bad contract. But with the second remaining year being a team option my trade idea is dead.

[rascal]

Just edited my post.
#9, Doug and Langford for #3 and Gordon. Doug and Romeo each have one year left, while Gordon has two at 19M.

The Spurs don't have the top level star talent or assets to make a trade with Houston for that 3rd pick.

[SAGirl]

Haven't followed this draft class at all, who's the best undersized guard with questionable range?
This got a huge laugh out of me. Has to play at the combine too. :hungry:

[Arcadian]

Hey, this is our highest draft pick since Tim Duncan. That's pretty cool.