Early Vegas Line, SAS 23.5 wins

[JeffDuncan]

So they say. I’m on the cell phone, very limited software, can somebody post the tweet?

[Russ]

The Spurs' title odds at Ceasar's last weekend were (I believe) 750-1.

[timvp]

Strategically, the Spurs should try to get under .......... but since Pop doesn't know how to tank, that's a clear over, tbh.

[BatManu20]

Definitely taking the over on that.

[emanueldavidginobili]

1548409404482940930

Nothing yet for Lakers, Nets, Jazz, and Knicks for obvious reasons.

[CGD]

Weren’t they spot on last years?

[Ariel]

Strategically, the Spurs should try to get under .......... but since Pop doesn't know how to tank, that's a clear over, tbh.
We need to end up in the bottom 3, that gives us the best possible lottery odds. Each slot we climb from there on will cost us dearly, and since Pop will definitely not throw games purposefully like other teams will (Houston, Utah, OKC, etc.) the FO must remove all temptations and trade Poeltl and Richardson before it's too late into the season.

[Russ]

Definitely taking the over on that.

Looks like an easy win, but I've had so many of those over-under season bets where I end up congratulating myself and then saying, "I won, but where the fuck is that ticket?" (They factor that in and count on that. :lol)

[Robz4000]

Over, but only because the Spurs will win a bunch of games at the end of the season to tanking teams to ruin their draft pick.

[offset formation]

1548409404482940930

Nothing yet for Lakers, Nets, Jazz, and Knicks for obvious reasons.

Lol, I said on another thread we needed to be sub 26 wins for out best shot at getting Wembanyama. Looks like I belong in Vegas

[timvp]

Weren’t they spot on last years?

Last year it was 28.5. That was another clear over even though most Spurs fans thought it was a no-brainer under, tbh.

[offset formation]

Strategically, the Spurs should try to get under .......... but since Pop doesn't know how to tank, that's a clear over, tbh.

I thought that's why they brought in the take commander, Brett Brown, to slow Pop's roll.

[TD 21]

I'd have to see what happens with starting PG/Poeltl/Richardson before making a call on this.


Last year it was 28.5. That was another clear over even though most Spurs fans thought it was a no-brainer under, tbh.

At least last season you could have argued for the youth being unleashed and Murray/White specifically making a leap.

Right now, a small guard/fringe rotation player who can't/doesn't shoot 3s, is the only player on the roster who can credibly create for themselves/others.

[lefty20]

Primo as HOTS will lead us to the much desired under, tbh.

[KingKev]

We were only over last season due to near perfect health, other teams incurring injuries and coach Pop his A game.

25 is my line with the current roster. You always have to consider other franchises will tank harder for better or worse.

[BackHome]

Yeah I was thinking the same thing the year we really really suck we have to be pretty healthy for the whole year - We were one or two injuries easily of being the last place team this past season...........:(

It would be nice getting number one pick but we have to and I mean we HAVE to get in the top 3 of this upcoming draft

[Uriel]

I think the 23.5 wins already factors in the expectation that Poeltl and Richardson will be traded before the season. Because given the current roster, it's a clear over. Just like it was last year.

[spurs1990]

Murray was out 10 games with an MCL sprain. Poelte was out about 10 games at the start of the year. White and Vassell missed a string of games due to protocols.

McDermott missed more games than he played. I don't think anyone outside of Johnson was healthy the entire year.

[Dejounte]

Murray was out 10 games with an MCL sprain. Poelte was out about 10 games at the start of the year. White and Vassell missed a string of games due to protocols.

McDermott missed more games than he played. I don't think anyone outside of Johnson was healthy the entire year.

Yeah, but I believe the team sucks so I’ll twist the facts so it looks like I’m right.

[J_Paco]

I'd have to see what happens with starting PG/Poeltl/Richardson before making a call on this.



At least last season you could have argued for the youth being unleashed and Murray/White specifically making a leap.

Right now, a small guard/fringe rotation player who can't/doesn't shoot 3s, is the only player on the roster who can credibly create for themselves/others.

Right, not having a starting caliber PG is definitely gonna cost them W's. Add on to that that Tre is a non - factor from outside, well that is gonna negatively impact the offense, IMO.

[Mr. Body]

Again, the Spurs only lost Dejounte and Walker. Obviously Dejounte was a big piece, but I don't know if they're going to be completely horrible.

[Mr. Body]

Basically (in a way) the Spurs traded Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker for Jeremy Sochan, Blake Wesley, and Malaki Branham. They traded a good PG for what seems like a nice PF prospect and two SGs.

[offset formation]

Again, the Spurs only lost Dejounte and Walker. Obviously Dejounte was a big piece, but I don't know if they're going to be completely horrible.

Gotta lose Poeltl. Timvp says they're trying so I assume they will.

Primo playing PG and doing what he does with TOs will be great for the Ls but won't be good for his long term development so I'm torn on whether or not I want them to continue that.

[mystargtr34]

If the Spurs move Poeltl and Richardson for picks then I think the Spurs will be around 25 wins, so just over the line.

If the Spurs keep Poeltl and Richardson or even just Poeltl I can see the Spurs winning 30 games.

[Mr. Body]

I don't think they'll trade Poeltl. Will believe it when I see it. In any case, the point is the number seems pretty low. Is the loss of Murray worth 10 losses? Maybe, if no one else improves.

[scott]

As the roster stands today, I’d hammer the over. If we move Jak and JRich, we are a sub 20 win team

[Russ]

23.5 wins is free money.

One of the best sports bets I've seen in my many years going to Vegas (and I've seen, and I do mean seen, a lot).

[RC_Drunkford]

let's hope they don't even crack 20 wins

[spurs1990]

Not sure if this was posted on another thread, but the ringer has a list of players' trade value (https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/7/11/23203674/bill-simmons-nba-trade-value-2022-summer-list). A ranking of 1-64, and 20 other players.

Out of the 84 players, your San Antonio Spurs are the only team to be completely shut out. That's right, the other dregs who supposedly will contend with the Spurs for the worst record all have untradable players of some sort. Kings have Sabonis, Jazz with Mitchell, Craplahoma has three, Houston 2 guys as well as Detroit, and Indiana has Halliburton.

All that being said San Antonio will assuredly either be in the top 3 for the lottery, or the coaching staff will have overperformed beyond anything they've done in the past.

[KingKev]

23.5 wins is free money.

One of the best sports bets I've seen in my many years going to Vegas (and I've seen, and I do mean seen, a lot).

You don’t need to go to Vegas to be a sports gambler.

[BackHome]

If they trade Poodle we definitely will have the worst record as I don't think people know how much he impacts the games. We all ready get crushed on the glass and loosing our two best rebounders Murray and Poodle will be killed on second chance points and I am not sure Sochan is going to be playing a lot of minutes with the big boys so that leaves...Dieng?

[ismael-robert]

Lol, I said on another thread we needed to be sub 26 wins for out best shot at getting Wembanyama. Looks like I belong in Vegas

Think they're still trying to replace sigfried n roy

[offset formation]

Think they're still trying to replace sigfried n roy

Well played. Noice.

[GAustex]

If they trade Poodle we definitely will have the worst record as I don't think people know how much he impacts the games. We all ready get crushed on the glass and loosing our two best rebounders Murray and Poodle will be killed on second chance points and I am not sure Sochan is going to be playing a lot of minutes with the big boys so that leaves...Dieng?

Don’t forget Dougie McNoReb is our PF

[KobesAchilles]

I mean we can’t be that bad right? Would that be a franchise low? What were when David got hurt? Gotta take the over. But if we lose Poeltl and Josh then yeah I would take the under :lol

[SPURt]

I mean we can’t be that bad right? Would that be a franchise low? What were when David got hurt? Gotta take the over. But if we lose Poeltl and Josh then yeah I would take the under :lol
The Spurs have lost 23 or less games twice. 20 wins got TD and the 21 win season got Sean. They won David’s lottery after winning 31 games.

[FlAVaK]

1996 was 20-62

[DPG21920]

Last year it was 28.5. That was another clear over even though most Spurs fans thought it was a no-brainer under, tbh.

Agree on last year - even Spurs fans thought the youth sucked and DDR could not be replaced despite all evidence to contrary. But unless Tre Jones is a top 15 PG, I dont know about this year. Primo kind of sucks at the moment and hard to see him leaping enough and SA already weak in front court and now weak at PG too

[DPG21920]

I like POR over 41.5 and SAC over 31.5

[baseline bum]

I like POR over 41.5 and SAC over 31.5

GS over 50.5 is the biggest no-brainer IMO since they should have a healthier Klay Thompson, a better Kuminga, and maybe Wiseman becomes somebody. But the first two alone should make that one pretty safe.

[KingKev]

Lol futures bets are never safe. You guys have never laid down risk clearly.

[baseline bum]

Last year it was 28.5. That was another clear over even though most Spurs fans thought it was a no-brainer under, tbh.

Really thought losing DeRozan was going to cost a bunch of early season wins since he's an MVP candidate through December every year tbh

[MultiTroll]

Over, but only because the Spurs will win a bunch of games at the end of the season to tanking teams to ruin their draft pick.
Coach Numby had us go 8-2 in the final stretches including *Wins* over mega tankers:

Portland 3Xs
Houston
OKC

Oh but we'll have that memory of the Play-In loss to New Orleans forever.

[John B]

We were only over last season due to near perfect health, other teams incurring injuries and coach Pop his A game.

25 is my line with the current roster. You always have to consider other franchises will tank harder for better or worse.

Plus DJ wanting to get AS, MIP, Steals Leader, etc. and PATFO showcasing him perhaps for a good haul like the vets from the year before last season. But this season there’s little case to do that. Of course Poeltl is still 10+ and needs to be dealt to guarantee a tank.

[R. DeMurre]

Golden State at 50.5 and Orlando at 27.5 look like good bets. Orlando was at 23 wins last year without Paolo and J Isaac, plus Franz will have a year of experience under his belt.

[exstatic]

Lol, I said on another thread we needed to be sub 26 wins for out best shot at getting Wembanyama. Looks like I belong in Vegas

Vegas isn’t in the prediction business, per se. Their only interest is in seeing the money come down even on both sides. The fact that the line they set for the general publics betting pattern is close to your prediction isn’t anything to crow about. The general public is notoriously dumb as shit.

The thing they never take into account is that the Spurs will never shut down players who can play. Every other team in the bottom 1/3 of that list will, and that isn’t reflected in the line. A better O/U for Vegas would probably be 31.5.

[rascal]

The Spurs longest losing streak in team history is 13.

I expect that record will fall this year.

[exstatic]

The Spurs longest losing streak in team history is 13.

I expect that record will fall this year.

I’ll make you a sig bet on that.

[offset formation]

I'd want to see the schedule before I took part in that bet. They're likely to lose all of their road games on the RRT. Didn't we come close to doing that like 2 years ago?

Any tough teams before or after that and that record is in jeopardy. Add in an injury or two (Keldon and Vassell, or Poeltl, etc) and it's maybe a given.

[RC_Drunkford]

Schedule will matter here. Hope we play a whole lot of playoff teams after the All-Star break

[KingKev]

I'd want to see the schedule before I took part in that bet. They're likely to lose all of their road games on the RRT. Didn't we come close to doing that like 2 years ago?

Any tough teams before or after that and that record is in jeopardy. Add in an injury or two (Keldon and Vassell, or Poeltl, etc) and it's maybe a given.

Jak (if with the team) is probably the only player who will have an impact on wins or losses. Vassell and Keldon will put up numbers in a losing effort that someone else will be able to replicate in this system.

[rascal]

I'd want to see the schedule before I took part in that bet. They're likely to lose all of their road games on the RRT. Didn't we come close to doing that like 2 years ago?

Any tough teams before or after that and that record is in jeopardy. Add in an injury or two (Keldon and Vassell, or Poeltl, etc) and it's maybe a given.

Every year there are on average two teams in the league that have at least a 14 game losing streak.

If you think the spurs will have the worst record or second worst record in the league then chances are they will hit the team record for losses.

[rascal]

I'd want to see the schedule before I took part in that bet. They're likely to lose all of their road games on the RRT. Didn't we come close to doing that like 2 years ago?

Any tough teams before or after that and that record is in jeopardy. Add in an injury or two (Keldon and Vassell, or Poeltl, etc) and it's maybe a given.

You can add Tre Jones(who will be important at pg now) and Sochan(send Keldon back to PF) to that list of a key injury will make it a given the Spurs are in the bottom two in the league.

[exstatic]

Jak (if with the team) is probably the only player who will have an impact on wins or losses. Vassell and Keldon will put up numbers in a losing effort that someone else will be able to replicate in this system.

Zach showed out pretty well last year. He’s like Jak, with a 3 pointer and FTs. His second year, in Portland, he was top 5 in opp FG% in the restricted area.

[AFBlue]

It's only a matter of time before Jak and Richardson are moved for picks. Maybe they last to the deadline, but I wouldn't bet on it. With Tre Jones as the only true PG on the team and no iso shot creators, I'm taking the under.

[exstatic]

It's only a matter of time before Jak and Richardson are moved for picks. Maybe they last to the deadline, but I wouldn't bet on it. With Tre Jones as the only true PG on the team and no iso shot creators, I'm taking the under.

You’ll be throwing your money away. The Spurs always pick up extra wins after the trade deadline from other teams who goin the tank. If you’re not factoring that in, you’re doing it wrong.

[RC_Drunkford]

The Spurs will also pick up extra Ls by resting players on back to backs, but yeah I don't think the under is a good bet as long as Poeltl is still on the team. Also people forget that most of the young guys will probably have upped their game quite a bit.

[rascal]

You’ll be throwing your money away. The Spurs always pick up extra wins after the trade deadline from other teams who goin the tank. If you’re not factoring that in, you’re doing it wrong.

This year will be different.

The Murray trade and not targeting any player in free agency that can add wins signals the front office is playing for a high lottery pick.

No matter what Pop says, with VW the obvious prize in the draft the Spurs are not stupid to win meaningless games down the stretch.

[exstatic]

The Spurs will also pick up extra Ls by resting players on back to backs, but yeah I don't think the under is a good bet as long as Poeltl is still on the team. Also people forget that most of the young guys will probably have upped their game quite a bit.

I mean, last year was even easier at 28.5, and you still had fuckers taking the under. Posters here thought we’d win 15 games with DeRozan gone.

It wouldn’t shock me to see both Keldon and Vassell average 20 + next year. People are sleeping on Vassell. Fucker shoots well from everywhere. He’s a true 3 level scorer, and he’ll get a lot more touches now with both DJ and Sad Lonnie gone.

[rjv]

The 23.5 is just based on the notion that the spurs are in rebuild but doesn't take into account certain variables. The first one has already been mentioned and that pertains to the post-trade deadline tank that certain organizations always partake in and the other is that the Spurs are a team coached to compete. There's enough talent on this team to garnish some unexpected wins here and there against teams that will come into their games against the Spurs expecting a win. I'd definitely take the over.

[exstatic]

The 23.5 is just based on the notion that the spurs are in rebuild but doesn't take into account certain variables. The first one has already been mentioned and that pertains to the post-trade deadline tank that certain organizations always partake in and the other is that the Spurs are a team coached to compete. There's enough talent on this team to garnish some unexpected wins here and there against teams that will come into their games against the Spurs expecting a win. I'd definitely take the over.

That’s 100% wrong. Vegas works one way on any kind of betting line: making the money come down even on both sides. That’s it. That’s the big secret to Vegas betting lines. If they’re stupid, it’s because people are betting stupidly. The over has been a pretty good bet for most of the last 25 years, since the public knows almost nothing about SA, and so they tend to under rate and under bet them.

[rjv]

That’s 100% wrong. Vegas works one way on any kind of betting line: making the money come down even on both sides. That’s it. That’s the big secret to Vegas betting lines. If they’re stupid, it’s because people are betting stupidly. The over has been a pretty good bet for most of the last 25 years, since the public knows almost nothing about SA, and so they tend to under rate and under bet them.

i never wrote that Vegas is the one determining the record. i'm very much aware as to how the lines are set in order to mitigate risk i just assumed that i didn't have to spell that out for anyone because most posters probably know this. perhaps it was just sloppy writing on my part. still, the larger point was in the latter part of my post.

[The Truth #6]

Definitely over. But it could be 28 wins. It’s going to be a rough season.

[slick'81]

Definitely under if spurs want that top3 pick

[KingKev]

That’s 100% wrong. Vegas works one way on any kind of betting line: making the money come down even on both sides. That’s it. That’s the big secret to Vegas betting lines. If they’re stupid, it’s because people are betting stupidly. The over has been a pretty good bet for most of the last 25 years, since the public knows almost nothing about SA, and so they tend to under rate and under bet them.

Do you have supporting evidence regarding the over being a strong bet for the Spurs?

They run fairly simple yet sophisticated models even for an illiquid market like futures betting. I interviewed for a trading role with FanDuel last fall and got some insight into their market making.

[Seventyniner]

Sure the sports books want even money on both sides so they win no matter what, but they still need to be as accurate as they can on the initial line. If it's way off, a sharp will take a bunch of action on one side and the sports book might not get enough action on the other side to balance it out. At least not without moving the line a bunch, at which point they're basically conceding a high probability of defeat to the sharp anyway.

[R. DeMurre]

Anyone see betting lines for worst end-of-season record? I use mybookie.ag and they don't have anything like that.

[offset formation]

I mean, last year was even easier at 28.5, and you still had fuckers taking the under. Posters here thought we’d win 15 games with DeRozan gone.

It wouldn’t shock me to see both Keldon and Vassell average 20 + next year. People are sleeping on Vassell. Fucker shoots well from everywhere. He’s a true 3 level scorer, and he’ll get a lot more touches now with both DJ and Sad Lonnie gone.

Do you remember who or have the time to go find that thread? Would be interested to see who took the under on 28.5 games.

[RC_Drunkford]

Do you remember who or have the time to go find that thread? Would be interested to see who took the under on 28.5 games.

I definately did

[ginobilized]

Spurs could end up with the worst record in the league this year.
It remains to be seen what happens. One injury to KJ, DV or Poetl and the season is likely going down fast.
The bottom teams from last year have got a lot more talent right now than the Spurs have.

23.5 sounds pretty feasible to me. But, I'm not a betting man.

[spurraider21]

Strategically, the Spurs should try to get under .......... but since Pop doesn't know how to tank, that's a clear over, tbh.
did you see how often he used to play forbes?

[RC_Drunkford]

did you see how often he used to play forbes?

that was idiocy, not trying to tank

[rascal]

That’s 100% wrong. Vegas works one way on any kind of betting line: making the money come down even on both sides. That’s it. That’s the big secret to Vegas betting lines. If they’re stupid, it’s because people are betting stupidly. The over has been a pretty good bet for most of the last 25 years, since the public knows almost nothing about SA, and so they tend to under rate and under bet them.

These type of bets the genral public are not on, it's the knowledgeable big money gamblers who are on these bets and Vegas makes the line down the middle on what they will bet on so the line is accurate as to expected results.

Spurs are likely to win 23/24 games +- 3 games.

[exstatic]

These type of bets the genral public are not on, it's the knowledgeable big money gamblers who are on these bets and Vegas makes the line down the middle on what they will bet on so the line is accurate as to expected results.

Spurs are likely to win 23/24 games +- 3 games.

Here's a nugget: rich gamblers aren't any smarter than the general public, they just get better comps for getting fleeced for more $$$.

[KingKev]

Here's a nugget: rich gamblers aren't any smarter than the general public, they just get better comps for getting fleeced for more $$$.

Here is another nugget. It’s not all public money. Some rich gamblers have systems that are basically institutional money running models and algorithms the same way the house does.

[Atl Spur]

We will win more than 24 games barring injury.

[slick'81]

We will win more than 24 games barring injury.

i sure as hell hope not. 25-30 wins is still terrible

[exstatic]

i sure as hell hope not. 25-30 wins is still terrible

With a healthy roster, my personal O/U is 31.5.

[slick'81]

With a healthy roster, my personal O/U is 31.5.


its possible but one injury or poodle jettison and bottoms up

[RC_Drunkford]

You need to have a connection to a broker who can tell you on which bets unusual high amounts of money are bet on. That‘s how you make the most money and it‘s usually a sign that the game is fixed. That‘s how it‘s done in soccer

[KingKev]

You need to have a connection to a broker who can tell you on which bets unusual high amounts of money are bet on. That‘s how you make the most money and it‘s usually a sign that the game is fixed. That‘s how it‘s done in soccer

Sports books are also pawning off their own risk on other books to manage their own book. Some lines are more liquid than others. Spurs futures are probably pretty damn illiquid.

Our dear friend Abe bangs the table on his knowledge of Vegas odds but only ever gambles at Saturday BINGO

[exstatic]

its possible but one injury or poodle jettison and bottoms up

My assumption is no Poodle, but Zollins gives you most of the paint protection, and spaces the floor and hits FTs.

[slick'81]

My assumption is no Poodle, but Zollins gives you most of the paint protection, and spaces the floor and hits FTs.

Sounds good

[wildbill2u]

I don't believe Pop will EVER purposely lose a game by manipulating the players time on court. Not in his DNA. So how does a great coach figure a way to steal some games from better teams.???

We will see a lot of lineups and my guess is his strategy will be to wear out the other teams with short term minutes for in and out players. This gives the rookies some burn and encourages everyone to go full steam while on the court. This game of BB also hinges on the endurance of players who play at a fast pace. Fast breaks and passing the ball around the horn will be the order of the day. If our players are truly NBA level, although maybe not great or All-star material, they might win a few against teams that rely on their stars playing long minutes. I don't see LeBron playing 40 minutes of racehorse basketball at his age, do you?

That's my take on how to use the roster we have to its best advantage.

[KingKev]

I don't believe Pop will EVER purposely lose a game by manipulating the players time on court. Not in his DNA. So how does a great coach figure a way to steal some games from better teams.???

We will see a lot of lineups and my guess is his strategy will be to wear out the other teams with short term minutes for in and out players. This gives the rookies some burn and encourages everyone to go full steam while on the court. This game of BB also hinges on the endurance of players who play at a fast pace. Fast breaks and passing the ball around the horn will be the order of the day. If our players are truly NBA level, although maybe not great or All-star material, they might win a few against teams that rely on their stars playing long minutes. I don't see LeBron playing 40 minutes of racehorse basketball at his age, do you?

That's my take on how to use the roster we have to its best advantage.

Putting this roster to “it’s best advantage” is purgatory.

Coach Pop looked formidable last season but he was hopeless the 3 seasons before. Let’s hope for the latter so we can start building a roster to be hopeful for.

[BackHome]

I don't believe Pop will EVER purposely lose a game by manipulating the players time on court. Not in his DNA. So how does a great coach figure a way to steal some games from better teams.???

We will see a lot of lineups and my guess is his strategy will be to wear out the other teams with short term minutes for in and out players. This gives the rookies some burn and encourages everyone to go full steam while on the court. This game of BB also hinges on the endurance of players who play at a fast pace. Fast breaks and passing the ball around the horn will be the order of the day. If our players are truly NBA level, although maybe not great or All-star material, they might win a few against teams that rely on their stars playing long minutes. I don't see LeBron playing 40 minutes of racehorse basketball at his age, do you?

That's my take on how to use the roster we have to its best advantage.

I am sorry but I have seen Pop loose games just to make a point to a player or players.

[DPG21920]

We have no PG and still the worst FC in nba maybe (especially if Jakob is moved). I’ll take under

[slick'81]

One injury or jak trade and the under is a certainty. If its over? bye-bye top 3 pick ,barring some real lottery magic.

[offset formation]

One injury or jak trade and the under is a certainty. If its over? bye-bye top 3 pick ,barring some real lottery magic.

If pop leaves after this year and has this team win the 4th fewest games, thereby dropping us from the highest odds of getting a generational talent like Wembanyama, he can fuck all the way off. At some point, you just have to realize your station in life, and ours is to tank for the greater good. Nothing but ego would cause him to fare better unless there's simply something so fucking magical about Sochan that you build around him NOW.

[slick'81]

If pop leaves after this year and has this team win the 4th fewest games, thereby dropping us from the highest odds of getting a generational talent like Wembanyama, he can fuck all the way off. At some point, you just have to realize your station in life, and ours is to tank for the greater good. Nothing but ego would cause him to fare better unless there's simply something so fucking magical about Sochan that you build around him NOW.

everything they have done thus far points to losing. They didn't improve the roster at all and appear to be ready for a sink or swim approach with one of the youngest teams in the league. I just pray we dont fall in that 4-6 worst range and can get lucky one last time in the lottery

[exstatic]

If pop leaves after this year and has this team win the 4th fewest games, thereby dropping us from the highest odds of getting a generational talent like Wembanyama, he can fuck all the way off. At some point, you just have to realize your station in life, and ours is to tank for the greater good. Nothing but ego would cause him to fare better unless there's simply something so fucking magical about Sochan that you build around him NOW.

If you finish with the most losses, you only have a 14% chance at #1. 4th spot is 12.5%. You’re going to have a shit fit over 1.5%? OK, you do you.

[slick'81]

If you finish with the most losses, you only have a 14% chance at #1. 4th spot is 12.5%. You’re going to have a shit fit over 1.5%? OK, you do you.


definitely didnt work for houston

[KingKev]

If you finish with the most losses, you only have a 14% chance at #1. 4th spot is 12.5%. You’re going to have a shit fit over 1.5%? OK, you do you.

It is not about #1. It’s about a top 5ish pick. We already struggle to draft late lottery. I’ll explain this in your terms...

PATFO
NEEDS
A LAYUP

Take a guy at 1 or 2 who who others would take at 5 because he checks your profiling boxes, okay, fine whatever but we can’t keep fielding a team of up and coming 7th men.

[exstatic]

It is not about #1. It’s about a top 5ish pick. We already struggle to draft late lottery. I’ll explain this in your terms...

PATFO
NEEDS
A LAYUP

Take a guy at 1 or 2 who who others would take at 5 because he checks your profiling boxes, okay, fine whatever but we can’t keep fielding a team of up and coming 7th men.

If you want to change the discussion to “#1 is bad, go top 5”, quote his post, not mine. I think going all in thinking you’ll get #1 is stupid, and I said that, mentioning the shitty odds.

[exstatic]

definitely didnt work for houston

Or Detroit.

[rascal]

I'll take the under. The Spurs are the least talented team in the league.

23 wins is about right.

[slick'81]

I'll take the under. The Spurs are the least talented team in the league.

23 wins is about right.

spurs are going to need to be nearly perfect to get anywhere close to 30 wins

[rascal]

If you want to change the discussion to “#1 is bad, go top 5”, quote his post, not mine. I think going all in thinking you’ll get #1 is stupid, and I said that, mentioning the shitty odds.

There area a few great players in the top five of next year's draft. Even if the spurs don't get number one they will still add a great player.

[offset formation]

With a healthy roster, my personal O/U is 31.5.

Sooo, not too much worse than last year?? Think you're overshooting their ceiling here.

No DJ. No Derrick. No Lonnie (best scorer off the bench until Josh got here, who will likely be traded). Likely no Poeltl (clearly our best defender in the paint). And even with Poeltl and Richardson, we have no defensive talent aaide from Poeltl, Richardson, and maybe Vassell, nor reliable scoring aside from KJ and maybe Vassell.

So even if you challenge the overall contribution of any of those players, and I do myself, very little history playing together which likely means much of the first half of the season will be spent being cohesive together. And that assumes pop actually has coherent lineups and sticks with them.

Very tough schedule given our division is almost uniformly better than us. Aside from Utah, and maaaaaybe Sacramento, who in our conference do you expect to retrograde down the standings ladder?

In the eastern conference, aside from Washington, Orlando, Indiana, Detroit, and maybe Brooklyn depending on what happens there, all the other teams are clearly better than us. And I'd submit most of the teams I just listed are probably going to be better as well.

I don't see any way in hell this team cracks 25 wins, UNLESS Sochan is just a badass on the pro level and we just haven't seen it yet because he's not played yet.

I'd go much closer with what Vegas is predicting. We're nowhere near as good as we were last year, and we sucked balls last year

[slick'81]

Sooo, not too much worse than last year?? Think you're overshooting their ceiling here.

No DJ. No Derrick. No Lonnie (best scorer off the bench until Josh got here, who will likely be traded). Likely no Poeltl (clearly our best defender in the paint). And even with Poeltl and Richardson, we have no defensive talent aaide from Poeltl, Richardson, and maybe Vassell, nor reliable scoring aside from KJ and maybe Vassell.

So even if you challenge the overall contribution of any of those players, and I do myself, very little history playing together which likely means much of the first half of the season will be spent being cohesive together. And that assumes pop actually has coherent lineups and sticks with them.

Very tough schedule given our division is almost uniformly better than us. Aside from Utah, and maaaaaybe Sacramento, who in our conference do you expect to retrograde down the standings ladder?

In the eastern conference, aside from Washington, Orlando, Indiana, Detroit, and maybe Brooklyn depending on what happens there, all the other teams are clearly better than us. And I'd submit most of the teams I just listed are probably going to be better as well.

I don't see any way in hell this team cracks 25 wins, UNLESS Sochan is just a badass on the pro level and we just haven't seen it yet because he's not played yet.

I'd go much closer with what Vegas is predicting. We're nowhere near as good as we were last year, and we sucked balls last year


its true , we need keldon or vassell to be a go to 1v1 scorer and tre jones is our best pg. Sochan and poodle aren't exactly offensive juggernauts and primo is a huuge ? This team is going to have to have alot go right just to stay competitive most nights

[tim_duncan_fan]

I don't gamble normally.

What do I get back if I drop $100 on us winning more than 23 and we do?

[KingKev]

I don't gamble normally.

What do I get back if I drop $100 on us winning more than 23 and we do?

Most books are currently paying -110 for over 23.5 wins. A $100 dollar bet will pay $90.91 if they win 24 or more games.

[exstatic]

Sooo, not too much worse than last year?? Think you're overshooting their ceiling here.

No DJ. No Derrick. No Lonnie (best scorer off the bench until Josh got here, who will likely be traded). Likely no Poeltl (clearly our best defender in the paint). And even with Poeltl and Richardson, we have no defensive talent aaide from Poeltl, Richardson, and maybe Vassell, nor reliable scoring aside from KJ and maybe Vassell.

So even if you challenge the overall contribution of any of those players, and I do myself, very little history playing together which likely means much of the first half of the season will be spent being cohesive together. And that assumes pop actually has coherent lineups and sticks with them.

Very tough schedule given our division is almost uniformly better than us. Aside from Utah, and maaaaaybe Sacramento, who in our conference do you expect to retrograde down the standings ladder?

In the eastern conference, aside from Washington, Orlando, Indiana, Detroit, and maybe Brooklyn depending on what happens there, all the other teams are clearly better than us. And I'd submit most of the teams I just listed are probably going to be better as well.

I don't see any way in hell this team cracks 25 wins, UNLESS Sochan is just a badass on the pro level and we just haven't seen it yet because he's not played yet.

I'd go much closer with what Vegas is predicting. We're nowhere near as good as we were last year, and we sucked balls last year

We don’t try to dump games at the end. Your evaluation of those other teams is flawed, because they WILL try to dump games at the end, when it becomes apparent they won’t make the playoffs. Did you have “SA finishes with a better record than Portland” on your dance card last year? Bet not.

[InRareForm]

That’s 100% wrong. Vegas works one way on any kind of betting line: making the money come down even on both sides. That’s it. That’s the big secret to Vegas betting lines. If they’re stupid, it’s because people are betting stupidly. The over has been a pretty good bet for most of the last 25 years, since the public knows almost nothing about SA, and so they tend to under rate and under bet them.

1550140953444290560

[KingKev]

1550140953444290560


haha I’ve been beating exstatic up for awhile when he spews this.

[jjspur]

I'll give the spurs about 23 games as well but plus or minus 6 games either way. If the spurs players and rookies are totally overwhelmed its closer to about 17 wins. If they make some adjustments or a minor trade and play ok down the stretch I can see them closer to 25-29 wins, but even that might be a stretch.

As usual they will lose games they can win, and win a few games they should easily lose. The obvious goal is to tank for Wembamyama, so really about 20 wins is all we have to look forward to. Its going to be a long season. I'll be looking for my lucky rabbits foot come May.

[exstatic]

haha I’ve been beating exstatic up for awhile when he spews this.

:lol. Yeah, you and the wildly famous and respected Todd Fuhrman.

[KingKev]

:lol. Yeah, you and the wildly famous and respected Todd Fuhrman.

I know nothing about him. I do know something about market making and I do know you have no clue on the topic yet offer an opinion as fact.

You've probably never laid risk let alone managed it.

[Seventyniner]

In terms of immediate on-court production, the Spurs basically lost DeRozan last offseason for nothing. They got Aminu (immediately cut) and Young (hardly played).

And while their winning percentage went down, the team performed better in terms of SRS (from -1.58 to +0.02) and expected win% (0.444 to 0.500).

I don't think the Spurs will be better than last year in terms of actual wins, and certainly won't be better in terms of expected win%. But to think trading Dejounte for nothing (again in terms of immediate on-court production) will drop the win total by 12, when losing DeRozan (a better player imo) didn't have nearly that much of an effect, seems a bit much to me.

My personal O/U for Spurs wins is 27.5.

[KingKev]

In terms of immediate on-court production, the Spurs basically lost DeRozan last offseason for nothing. They got Aminu (immediately cut) and Young (hardly played).

And while their winning percentage went down, the team performed better in terms of SRS (from -1.58 to +0.02) and expected win% (0.444 to 0.500).

I don't think the Spurs will be better than last year in terms of actual wins, and certainly won't be better in terms of expected win%. But to think trading Dejounte for nothing (again in terms of immediate on-court production) will drop the win total by 12, when losing DeRozan (a better player imo) didn't have nearly that much of an effect, seems a bit much to me.

My personal O/U for Spurs wins is 27.5.

This is a very useless exercise to debate when we don’t know if JRich and Jak are going to be on the roster to start the season.

There are better ways to make money.

Regardless, what I am going to be watching is come AS break when other teams start resting guys or outright begin tanking, do we foolishly battle for a play-in spot. That is a market I’d be interested in and a true indication of PATFO’s strategic prowess (or lack thereof)

[tim_duncan_fan]

Thanks!

[offset formation]

We don’t try to dump games at the end. Your evaluation of those other teams is flawed, because they WILL try to dump games at the end, when it becomes apparent they won’t make the playoffs. Did you have “SA finishes with a better record than Portland” on your dance card last year? Bet not.

I didn't have, Dame Lilliard sits season, either.

[TD 21]

In terms of immediate on-court production, the Spurs basically lost DeRozan last offseason for nothing. They got Aminu (immediately cut) and Young (hardly played).

And while their winning percentage went down, the team performed better in terms of SRS (from -1.58 to +0.02) and expected win% (0.444 to 0.500).

I don't think the Spurs will be better than last year in terms of actual wins, and certainly won't be better in terms of expected win%. But to think trading Dejounte for nothing (again in terms of immediate on-court production) will drop the win total by 12, when losing DeRozan (a better player imo) didn't have nearly that much of an effect, seems a bit much to me.

My personal O/U for Spurs wins is 27.5.

Wrong. They gained Murray and White playing a bigger role and McDermott providing a modicum of spacing.

DeRozan is also not a high impact player since he's useless off ball and defensively.

This is the only team in the league with no one to so much as masquerade as a go-to creator/scorer and as such are the odds on favorite to finish with the worst record in the league. They can and should increase those odds by trading Poeltl and Richardson as soon as possible.

[KingKev]

I didn't have, Dame Lilliard sits season, either.


Grandpa Abe should NEVER talk about sports gambling. He is absolutely clueless in the topic.

[Seventyniner]

Wrong. They gained Murray and White playing a bigger role and McDermott providing a modicum of spacing.

DeRozan is also not a high impact player since he's useless off ball and defensively.

This is the only team in the league with no one to so much as masquerade as a go-to creator/scorer and as such are the odds on favorite to finish with the worst record in the league. They can and should increase those odds by trading Poeltl and Richardson as soon as possible.

Murray, definitely. White, yes, though to a much lesser extent because he played 900 fewer minutes for the Spurs than Murray and the team was 20-35 before the trade and 14-13 after.

McDermott, no. McD only played 1223 minutes all season and was a net negative player, worse than everyone on the roster other than Forbes/Primo/Eubanks.

I think DeRozan's impact is overrated by many (not you), but I disagree with your reasoning. Late Rockets James Harden wasn't all that useful off the ball (mostly because he dominated it so much) and was a turnstile on defense, but I'd still call him a high impact player.

I agree that trading Poeltl and Richardson, assuming the price is right of course, makes sense. There's nothing to be gained by finishing 30-52 instead of 21-61 with an extra pick or two (by trading Poeltl/Richardson) and a higher natural pick.

My prediction is not based on what I think the Spurs should do, but instead on what I think they will do. Which is a decent chance of not trading either Poeltl or Richardson (at least until the deadline), and actually trying to win games down the stretch when other teams start to really tank.

[TD 21]

Murray, definitely. White, yes, though to a much lesser extent because he played 900 fewer minutes for the Spurs than Murray and the team was 20-35 before the trade and 14-13 after.McDermott, no. McD only played 1223 minutes all season and was a net negative player, worse than everyone on the roster other than Forbes/Primo/Eubanks.

I think DeRozan's impact is overrated by many (not you), but I disagree with your reasoning. Late Rockets James Harden wasn't all that useful off the ball (mostly because he dominated it so much) and was a turnstile on defense, but I'd still call him a high impact player.

I agree that trading Poeltl and Richardson, assuming the price is right of course, makes sense. There's nothing to be gained by finishing 30-52 instead of 21-61 with an extra pick or two (by trading Poeltl/Richardson) and a higher natural pick.

My prediction is not based on what I think the Spurs should do, but instead on what I think they will do. Which is a decent chance of not trading either Poeltl or Richardson (at least until the deadline), and actually trying to win games down the stretch when other teams start to really tank.

I realize that, but White playing more still helped while here and even though the metrics don't indicate as much, I still think McDermott's mere presence helped Murray, White and Poeltl offensively. Those three provided a floor that no longer exists.

Harden at least had to be respected off ball and on ball he was in another stratosphere from DeRozan.

I get it, but I think the mistake many are making is applying last season to this one when the circumstances are completely different. They can try all they want, the bottom line is they have the least/worst shot creation in the league and by post deadline at the latest there's a 99% chance Poeltl and Richardson will be traded.

[tonight...you]

Grandpa Abe should NEVER talk about sports gambling. He is absolutely clueless in the topic.
Lol. You're obsessed with people being old. Kind of weird.

[Seventyniner]

I realize that, but White playing more still helped while here and even though the metrics don't indicate as much, I still think McDermott's mere presence helped Murray, White and Poeltl offensively. Those three provided a floor that no longer exists.

Harden at least had to be respected off ball and on ball he was in another stratosphere from DeRozan.

I get it, but I think the mistake many are making is applying last season to this one when the circumstances are completely different. They can try all they want, the bottom line is they have the least/worst shot creation in the league and by post deadline at the latest there's a 99% chance Poeltl and Richardson will be traded.

McDermott is still here, for whatever that's worth. If his presence was a positive last season it presumably will be again this season.

The only reason I brought up Harden is to say that it's possible to be a positive impact player while not being very useful off the ball and being bad at defense. I didn't mean to say that DeRozan was anywhere near as good as Harden. I agreed with your conclusion, just not the reasoning.

I agree about the Spurs having the worst shot creation in the league. I don't think that will necessarily translate to the worst record, though. They could be 28th in offense and 22nd on defense, for example, and only have the 3rd or 4th worst record.

I wish I could agree with you on the 99% chance of Poeltl and Richardson being traded. It makes perfect sense, it's just that I don't trust the FO to always do sensible things, so I put the chance at more like 85% that either one is traded and 75% that they both are. Them both being expiring drives their value down somewhat imo. That's also why my O/U for Spurs wins is higher than the Vegas line: Poeltl and Richardson are both positive-impact players, and if the Spurs carry them all the way to the deadline they will positively impact the Spurs' performance for 2/3 of the season. If the Spurs do trade both before the season then I would still take the over on 23.5, but not with as much confidence.

My overall point is that, from a SRS perspective, the Spurs actually got better without DeRozan. They would have to suffer an 18-game downswing from there to go to 23 (expected) wins. I don't think losing Murray, who imo isn't as good as DeRozan, was that big a blow. Losing Poeltl and Richardson would complete this offseason's teardown.

[TD 21]

McDermott is still here, for whatever that's worth. If his presence was a positive last season it presumably will be again this season.

I agree about the Spurs having the worst shot creation in the league. I don't think that will necessarily translate to the worst record, though. They could be 28th in offense and 22nd on defense, for example, and only have the 3rd or 4th worst record.

I wish I could agree with you on the 99% chance of Poeltl and Richardson being traded. It makes perfect sense, it's just that I don't trust the FO to always do sensible things, so I put the chance at more like 85% that either one is traded and 75% that they both are. Them both being expiring drives their value down somewhat imo. That's also why my O/U for Spurs wins is higher than the Vegas line: Poeltl and Richardson are both positive-impact players, and if the Spurs carry them all the way to the deadline they will positively impact the Spurs' performance for 2/3 of the season. If the Spurs do trade both before the season then I would still take the over on 23.5, but not with as much confidence.

My overall point is that, from a SRS perspective, the Spurs actually got better without DeRozan. They would have to suffer an 18-game downswing from there to go to 23 (expected) wins. I don't think losing Murray, who imo isn't as good as DeRozan, was that big a blow. Losing Poeltl and Richardson would complete this offseason's teardown.

I didn't mean to suggest McDermott was a positive overall, just that he added a dimension the starting lineup was missing by replacing DeRozan.

Yeah, no guarantees. The Thunder two seasons ago looked like a historically awful team and were actually just run of the mill bad until they shamelessly tanked post All-Star break, shutting down virtually every credible player. Of course, they had Gilgeous-Alexander playing at an All-Star caliber level before that though.

It may take longer than it should, but even the Spurs can't screw up trading Poeltl and Richardson.

I don't think it's so much about Murray's caliber as what he represented, which was the only credible shot creator on the roster.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Fingers crossed for the "under' on this one. 24 wins probably doesn't get us into the top 3 picks.

[spurs1990]

Hey does anyone with insider access know if San Antonio is last on the espn plus projected wins ?
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/34375209/nba-projections-2022-23-our-picks-eastern-conference-western-conference-nba-champions

They’re being picked as least amount of wins by the online oddsmakers yet strangely enough no early mock draft links have the Spurs picking first, or even top 3. On the surface they should be clear cut favorites for 1st draft pick with this roster.

[rankingtear]

Hey does anyone with insider access know if San Antonio is last on the espn plus projected wins ?
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/34375209/nba-projections-2022-23-our-picks-eastern-conference-western-conference-nba-champions

They’re being picked as least amount of wins by the online oddsmakers yet strangely enough no early mock draft links have the Spurs picking first, or even top 3. On the surface they should be clear cut favorites for 1st draft pick with this roster.

(24-58) 4th to last behind (22-60) HOU, (23-59) IND, (23-59) ORL. (25) OKC and (26) UTA are also in the mix.

[MultiTroll]

Has a #1 assistant been named so if Popped is unavailable _____ will coach?

[exstatic]

Has a #1 assistant been named so if Popped is unavailable _____ will coach?

You might have even heard of the guy: Brett Brown.

You really are fucking stupid.

[MultiTroll]

You might have even heard of the guy: Brett Brown.

You really are fucking stupid.
Wow you sure showed me.

[rascal]

Let's revisit this

[KingKev]

I’ll make you a sig bet on that.

did this go down?!?

[John B]

I doubt they win 5 more games from hereon much less 9. Vegas underestimated Pop’s ability to tank :lol:lol

But it’s the year to tank if ever. And I don’t doubt TP and Bobo had insights on Wemby (on top of what everybody already know) that finally convinced PATFO to go all in, that and the flawed roster, etc.

[Seventyniner]

Wrong. They gained Murray and White playing a bigger role and McDermott providing a modicum of spacing.

DeRozan is also not a high impact player since he's useless off ball and defensively.

This is the only team in the league with no one to so much as masquerade as a go-to creator/scorer and as such are the odds on favorite to finish with the worst record in the league. They can and should increase those odds by trading Poeltl and Richardson as soon as possible.

Your take was certainly better than mine here. Well done. :bobo

[MultiTroll]

11 Home
11 Road

Home 9-21 for about .315
Road 5-25 this is where Pop has really excelled at .169

If these %s were to hold.....where are our mathemeticians?

[stnick2261]

11 home x 0.315 = 3.465
11 Road x 0.169 = 1.859

5.324 expected wins... but we are much worse now than the beginning on the season

[rascal]

11 home x 0.315 = 3.465
11 Road x 0.169 = 1.859

5.324 expected wins... but we are much worse now than the beginning on the season

Yes, so shave 2 or 3 off that number.

[DPG21920]

Agree on last year - even Spurs fans thought the youth sucked and DDR could not be replaced despite all evidence to contrary. But unless Tre Jones is a top 15 PG, I dont know about this year. Primo kind of sucks at the moment and hard to see him leaping enough and SA already weak in front court and now weak at PG too


We have no PG and still the worst FC in nba maybe (especially if Jakob is moved). I’ll take under


I like POR over 41.5 and SAC over 31.5

So was right on about the Spurs - lack of PG play definitely was a big issue. Keldon and Devin have stepped up and done an admirable job creating on their own to put up 20PPG (even though rough at times)

I’m surprised the defense was THIS bad though tbh…but that sealed the deal.

Kings were obvious IMO and already have the over - great for them.

POR is not as good as I thought they would be. They seemed like they were on the right track but derailed some lately. But if they go like 500 rest of the way I think they can hit the over still? But not looking good especially with the trade deadline they had.

[exstatic]

did this go down?!?

Nope. Keep in mind that this was in July. A contingent wanted us to tank, but I’m not sure how many actually thought the Spurs would go whole hog.

[jjspur]

With all the musical chairs lineups that pop deploys, I expect maybe another 3 wins for a total of 17, but I wouldn't be surprised at just 2 more wins. When you have your third string center playing in an ot game against a really bad team, you are trying to lose. This team was designed to be bad. :spin

[KingKev]

What is great is hopes for the play-in were squashed to start the NY. I think we organically finish with 19 wins.

[DPG21920]

If CHA can get to 22 wins (so 5 more in their last 22 games) I think SA is safe to be in bottom 3. I can see SA getting Devin+Sochan back and winning 5-7 more especially since 2 of those wins may be against HOU back to back coming up soon.

That would mean just 3-5 more wins to get to 21 if SA beats HOU 2x.

[NASpurs]

After the Houston games, there's no win to be had to finish out the season. Another incoming 15+ loss steak.

[baseline bum]

Primo as HOTS

:lol

[cd98]

I kind of feel like not having Primo has really hurt our ability to lose games.

[rascal]

If CHA can get to 22 wins (so 5 more in their last 22 games) I think SA is safe to be in bottom 3. I can see SA getting Devin+Sochan back and winning 5-7 more especially since 2 of those wins may be against HOU back to back coming up soon.

That would mean just 3-5 more wins to get to 21 if SA beats HOU 2x.

More likely they lose both to Houston than win both but most likely a split between the two tanking teams.

[rascal]

After the Houston games, there's no win to be had to finish out the season. Another incoming 15+ loss steak.

They migth catch a team on a back to back with some injuries.

[DPG21920]

More likely they lose both to Houston than win both but most likely a split between the two tanking teams.

They’ve smoked HOU 2x already, have a 15 game losing streak and HOU is still behind them lol. It’s definitely more likely that SA wins both than loses both. Hoping for at least a split.

[John B]

They’ve smoked HOU 2x already, have a 15 game losing streak and HOU is still behind them lol. It’s definitely more likely that SA wins both than loses both. Hoping for at least a split.

Actually Houston was leading then pulled Sengun in the 4th quarter, who was having a great game, to conveniently throw the game. Also since then, Spurs have moved Poodle, J-Rich and Stanley, Spurs better defenders. I doubt they win over Houston next game. I highly doubt this team wins at all :lol

[DPG21920]

Just noticed something too looking at standings…DET/SA/CHA all have 22 games left. HOU has 24…so may come in handy with HOU having 2 extra games & 4 of them being vs CHA/DET/SA

Obviously the 2 coming up are big vs HOU.

[Robz4000]

Over, but only because the Spurs will win a bunch of games at the end of the season to tanking teams to ruin their draft pick.

Fuck, I'm gonna be right aren't I?

[spurraider21]

spurs are 8-21 when vassell plays, 6-25 when he's been out. im not worried that his return is going to suddenly get us on some unwanted hot streak.

heck, with all the injuries and tank management, we had 18 games this year where our "starting 5" played. Tre/Vassell/Kelon/Sochan/Poeltl. and we went 5-13 in games where all those guys suited up. while its a better win% than we have for the year, its still not exactly the sign of a team thats going to steal a bunch of wins. and now there's no poeltl either going forward

[spurraider21]

Fuck, I'm gonna be right aren't I?
really think the spurs are going to rack up wins with this roster after having dealt jak and richardson, 2 of the steady contributors we've had?

[DPG21920]

If Spurs beat HOU both times they will win 5-6 total from here

[Robz4000]

really think the spurs are going to rack up wins with this roster after having dealt jak and richardson, 2 of the steady contributors we've had?

When pretenders like Utah and Portland start jockeying for better draft position, sure.

[DPG21920]

If CHA can get to 22 wins (so 5 more in their last 22 games) I think SA is safe to be in bottom 3. I can see SA getting Devin+Sochan back and winning 5-7 more especially since 2 of those wins may be against HOU back to back coming up soon.

That would mean just 3-5 more wins to get to 21 if SA beats HOU 2x.

HUGE WIN for CHA vs MINNY. That means 4 wins to go for CHA to get to 22 (obviously you never know but that feels like a safe zone for SA to stay in bottom 3)

[slick'81]

Cha vs det on Monday

[wildbill2u]

thinking about Spurs Vs. Houston. What is the lowest score by two NBA teams since adoption of 24 second clock?? Anyone? Anyone? Buehler?

[talkspurs]

thinking about Spurs Vs. Houston. What is the lowest score by two NBA teams since adoption of 24 second clock?? Anyone? Anyone? Buehler?

I wouldnt be to worried about that. I would expect one team to pass 100 and would not be surprised if both do.

[Seventyniner]

thinking about Spurs Vs. Houston. What is the lowest score by two NBA teams since adoption of 24 second clock?? Anyone? Anyone? Buehler?

Just tell them the points they score count for the other team instead.

It would be funny to see a game end 48-41 after that Kings/Clips insanity from last night.

I do wonder if the league will get backlash at some point for being too high-scoring. Even De'Aaron Fox didn't seem to like being part of a 176-175 final score.

[DPG21920]

I wouldnt be to worried about that. I would expect one team to pass 100 and would not be surprised if both do.

Yup - both teams have horrific defense so it will be over 100 for both easy.

[DPG21920]

HUGE WIN for CHA vs MINNY. That means 4 wins to go for CHA to get to 22 (obviously you never know but that feels like a safe zone for SA to stay in bottom 3)

CHA wins again! Only 3 more wins to get them to 22. That would allow for SA to win 7 of last 21 games (33% win percentage - which is far above what they have been) and stay in bottom 3.

[DPG21920]

Spurs are definitely going to leapfrog DET though IMO. Spurs have lost 16 in a row and are like 2-23 last 25 games and DET has not separated at all. Just one game ahead despite all that losing for SA.

DET is tanking super hard and when Vassell is back, SA will leap them IMO.

HOU
DET
SA
CHA

Bottom 4 IMO

[Goob]

I will be very surprised if we get to 23 wins.

[DPG21920]

I will be very surprised if we get to 23 wins.

I really don’t see that happening. I think 21 wins is doable if things start to click and SA beats HOU 2x here soon.

[rascal]

Spurs are definitely going to leapfrog DET though IMO. Spurs have lost 16 in a row and are like 2-23 last 25 games and DET has not separated at all. Just one game ahead despite all that losing for SA.

DET is tanking super hard and when Vassell is back, SA will leap them IMO.

HOU
DET
SA
CHA

Bottom 4 IMO

Not necessarily

Detroit has been losing close games over the last five games and even beat the spurs in overtime. No one has been playing as bad as the Spurs.

[MultiTroll]

Would say the under 23.5 is a lock but, what will Pock do the final 2 weeks?

[spurraider21]

CHA wins again! Only 3 more wins to get them to 22. That would allow for SA to win 7 of last 21 games (33% win percentage - which is far above what they have been) and stay in bottom 3.
https://media.tenor.com/DLxPuy3CIbwAAAAC/lavar-ball-smile.gif

[DPG21920]

Not necessarily

Detroit has been losing close games over the last five games and even beat the spurs in overtime. No one has been playing as bad as the Spurs.

Spurs were missing a few key players….like Devin. Again, DET has not put any distance between Spurs and themselves despite SA losing 16 games in a row lol

[DPG21920]

https://media.tenor.com/DLxPuy3CIbwAAAAC/lavar-ball-smile.gif

Hey, when you have a “star” and vets literally designed to help you win you better be noticeably better than the Spurs lol

[spurraider21]

Hey, when you have a “star” and vets literally designed to help you win you better be noticeably better than the Spurs lol
if miles bridges comes back with the team im liking our odds of the pick conveying one of the next 2 years

[scott]

CHA wins again! Only 3 more wins to get them to 22. That would allow for SA to win 7 of last 21 games (33% win percentage - which is far above what they have been) and stay in bottom 3.

CHA only 10 games out of the play-in tbqh. Sign Bridges and let's go on a run baby! :lol

[rascal]

CHA only 10 games out of the play-in tbqh. Sign Bridges and let's go on a run baby! :lol

Too far out with only 20 games left.

[slick'81]

Cha destroying det 90-70

[scott]

Too far out with only 20 games left.

No shit, guy with no sense of humor.

[lefty20]

1630394158400585729

[spurraider21]

Damn. Good thing they went on that nice win streak now. Should have enough cushion to hold up

[DPG21920]

Disaster for LaMelo and the tank. Puts SA in real jeopardy imo. CHA has 20 wins. SA cannot win more than 5 games if they want to be sure of being in bottom 3.

They play HOU twice unfortunately and will likely beat them both times. That’s 3 wins last 17 games allowed. CHA doubtful to win another game and don’t think DET wins 2 more personally.

[scott]

Disaster for LaMelo and the tank. Puts SA in real jeopardy imo. CHA has 20 wins. SA cannot win more than 5 games if they want to be sure of being in bottom 3.

They play HOU twice unfortunately and will likely beat them both times. That’s 3 wins last 17 games allowed. CHA doubtful to win another game and don’t think DET wins 2 more personally.

The odds of CHA going on a 19-game losing streak are probably about as long as the Spurs going 5-16 to close out the season. It's possible, but I'm not too worried about it at this point.

Edit: CHA is 7-20 without Lamelo this season.

[Mr. Body]

Charlotte is likely locked in at four.

[DPG21920]

The odds of CHA going on a 19-game losing streak are probably about as long as the Spurs going 5-16 to close out the season. It's possible, but I'm not too worried about it at this point.

Edit: CHA is 7-20 without Lamelo this season.

Maybe - Spurs lost 16 and CHA with no LaMelo is worse than SA I think but hopefully you are right. Just saying to guarantee the bottom 3 Spurs can’t win more than 5.

[DPG21920]

Spurs, even after an insane losing streak of 16 games has a win % of 23%.

Winning 5 of their remaining games is only a 25% win percentage and they play HOU twice in there. It seems LIKELY to me that as they get healthy they win 25% of their games (especially if HOU is 2 wins).

[rascal]

Spurs, even after an insane losing streak of 16 games has a win % of 23%.

Winning 5 of their remaining games is only a 25% win percentage and they play HOU twice in there. It seems LIKELY to me that as they get healthy they win 25% of their games (especially if HOU is 2 wins).

The Spurs won't let Charlotte pass them. They have been on tank mode(doing nothing to bring talent on the current roster for this year through the trades they made) since the Murray trade.

Pop knows which lineups won't work. You'll see many 2nd half collapses like what we saw last game.

[DPG21920]

The Spurs won't let Charlotte pass them. They have been on tank mode(doing nothing to bring talent on the current roster for this year through the trades they made) since the Murray trade.

Pop knows which lineups won't work. You'll see many 2nd half collapses like what we saw last game.

This is all without Devin and Tre though. Those 2 are enough to to bump the win% to 25%. If SA loses at least one to HOU maybe, but if they beat HOU 2x I’m very confident they get to 20 wins.

[rascal]

Detroit held both Ivey and Duren out last night against Charlotte.

[rascal]

Pop will hold players out with minor injuries. And they are in no hurry to get Devin back in action. Will work him back slowly and any little setback they'll shut him down for the year.

The Spurs aren't messing up their best odds after coming so far now.

The Spurs don't play many tanking teams now. I don't see any more than 3 wins the rest of the way.

[DPG21920]

Spurs beat HOU 2x

I can see SA winning 3 of these games: OKC, ORL, ATL, WAS, POR or MIN (maybe a surprise win somewhere else to on a hot shooting night).

[rascal]

Spurs beat HOU 2x

I can see SA winning 3 of these games: OKC, ORL, ATL, WAS, POR or MIN (maybe a surprise win somewhere else to on a hot shooting night).

I don't see them winning three of those games. I don't even see them winning both against Houston.

[spurraider21]

Spurs, even after an insane losing streak of 16 games has a win % of 23%.

Winning 5 of their remaining games is only a 25% win percentage and they play HOU twice in there. It seems LIKELY to me that as they get healthy they win 25% of their games (especially if HOU is 2 wins).
fluke 5-2 start to the season kinda skews things as well

[DPG21920]

fluke 5-2 start to the season kinda skews things as well

Maybe, but HOU legit sucks and IF SA beats them 2x here soon I can definitely see SA finishing with 20-21 wins. Hope not, but just calling it as I see it.

[KingKev]

Maybe, but HOU legit sucks and IF SA beats them 2x here soon I can definitely see SA finishing with 20-21 wins. Hope not, but just calling it as I see it.

We also “legit suck”

You can keep telling yourself Pop is strategically tanking, Vassell and Tre Jones have been injured blah blah blah but the reality is we are dog shit and our two best players in Vassell and Keldon are putting up 20 a game on the least talented team in the NBA.

[spurraider21]

Maybe, but HOU legit sucks and IF SA beats them 2x here soon I can definitely see SA finishing with 20-21 wins. Hope not, but just calling it as I see it.
i dont know if you noticed but SA legit sucks too

[DPG21920]

We also “legit suck”

You can keep telling yourself Pop is strategically tanking, Vassell and Tre Jones have been injured blah blah blah but the reality is we are dog shit and our two best players in Vassell and Keldon are putting up 20 a game on the least talented team in the NBA.

That’s fine - but having said that we already beat HOU 2x despite us sucking and we are still ahead of HOU despite losing 16 in a row lol. You cannot ignore these things. But again, this is just math to me at this point; we will see what happens. Hopefully CHA did enough to cement SA in bottom 3

[DPG21920]

i dont know if you noticed but SA legit sucks too

Still better than HOU. Beat them 2x already and still ahead of them despite losing 16 in a row. Not sure how anyone ignores this…

[rascal]

Maybe, but HOU legit sucks and IF SA beats them 2x here soon I can definitely see SA finishing with 20-21 wins. Hope not, but just calling it as I see it.

I don't know why people in here think the Spurs are so much better than Houston. At best the Spurs will split those two games between two tanking teams.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Sochan sit out with a thigh bruise or something like that if the spurs win the first game.

[DPG21920]

I don't know why people in here think the Spurs are so much better than Houston. At best the Spurs will split those two games between two tanking teams.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Sochan sit out with a thigh bruise or something like that if the spurs win the first game.

You don’t know why people here, who saw SA smash HOU two times already when they played and showed the clear gap between the two alongside the fact SA can lose 16 in a row and still be ahead of HOU, think SA is much better than HOU?

Would it shock me if SA splits with HOU? No. But if SA is truly healthy with Dev back and everyone playing, the odds should favor SA in those games.

[KingKev]

You don’t know why people here, who saw SA smash HOU two times already when they played and showed the clear gap between the two alongside the fact SA can lose 16 in a row and still be ahead of HOU, think SA is much better than HOU?

Would it shock me if SA splits with HOU? No. But if SA is truly healthy with Dev back and everyone playing, the odds should favor SA in those games.

The odds will be even money and your superstar Dev will be on minutes restriction in his first games back after being out for two months. Over that time a 19 yr old rookie replaced him seamlessly.

[DPG21920]

I’m not a fortune teller. HOU could blow SA out both games lol. I’m just making a point about the situation and I don’t see why people here would seemingly be “shocked” if SA beats HOU 2x.

[DPG21920]

HOU has 3 wins MAX IMO from what I see (that’s including a split with SA)

[spurraider21]

I’m not a fortune teller. HOU could blow SA out both games lol. I’m just making a point about the situation and I don’t see why people here would seemingly be “shocked” if SA beats HOU 2x.
not shocked. i just dont think a sweep is a foregone conclusion

[duncan2150]

Imo the Spurs have securized a place in the bottom 3. I don't see them winning 5 more games than Charlotte.

[spurraider21]

charlotte is 13-23 when lamelo plays and 7-20 without him

so their win% without him is 26%. spurs win percentage on the season is 23%

lamelo being out hurts charlotte but i dont think the spurs will magically gain 5 games on them

[DPG21920]

charlotte is 13-23 when lamelo plays and 7-20 without him

so their win% without him is 26%. spurs win percentage on the season is 23%

lamelo being out hurts charlotte but i dont think the spurs will magically gain 5 games on them

Sure - I’m approaching it from an angle of guaranteed being in bottom 3 though. That means Sa can’t win more than 5. Sure beating hou 2x isn’t guaranteed and I never said that; I did say that I think it’s a decent probability and that if they do? Odds of winning at least 5 from here on out go wayyy up.

[spurraider21]

Sure - I’m approaching it from an angle of guaranteed being in bottom 3 though. That means Sa can’t win more than 5. Sure beating hou 2x isn’t guaranteed and I never said that; I did say that I think it’s a decent probability and that if they do? Odds of winning at least 5 from here on out go wayyy up.
SA can win more than 5. they just cant win more than 5 more than charlotte wins

[KingKev]

SA can win more than 5. they just cant win more than 5 more than charlotte wins

Thanks for clarifying as DPG struggles with maffs.

[jjspur]

You don’t know why people here, who saw SA smash HOU two times already when they played and showed the clear gap between the two alongside the fact SA can lose 16 in a row and still be ahead of HOU, think SA is much better than HOU?

Would it shock me if SA splits with HOU? No. But if SA is truly healthy with Dev back and everyone playing, the odds should favor SA in those games.

In this throw away season, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Houston beats the spurs in the next two games they play. Still say that the spurs won't even reach 20 wins this season, which should net them the 3rd worst record at the very least.

The spurs with their talent are trying to tank, the rockets with their talent are trying to win but can't. In a contest between these two teams, its hard to tell who is actually worse.

[baseline bum]

You don’t know why people here, who saw SA smash HOU two times already when they played and showed the clear gap between the two alongside the fact SA can lose 16 in a row and still be ahead of HOU, think SA is much better than HOU?

Would it shock me if SA splits with HOU? No. But if SA is truly healthy with Dev back and everyone playing, the odds should favor SA in those games.

Spurs are also a significantly less talented team now than they were a couple of weeks ago. Weren't they already the worst defensive team in NBA history? Now minus two of their top vets they look Houston level to me.

[exstatic]

In this throw away season, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Houston beats the spurs in the next two games they play. Still say that the spurs won't even reach 20 wins this season, which should net them the 3rd worst record at the very least.

The spurs with their talent are trying to tank, the rockets with their talent are trying to win but can't. In a contest between these two teams, its hard to tell who is actually worse.

??? In no way are the Rockets trying to win this year. If anything, they’re tanking more blatantly than we are. If they have a lead, they just pull guys off the floor to lose the game. They’ve done it multiple times with Sengün.

[KingKev]

In this throw away season, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Houston beats the spurs in the next two games they play. Still say that the spurs won't even reach 20 wins this season, which should net them the 3rd worst record at the very least.

The spurs with their talent are trying to tank, the rockets with their talent are trying to win but can't. In a contest between these two teams, its hard to tell who is actually worse.

Whatttt? We are clearly trying to win and they are clearly
trying to tank. They have 5x the talent.

[The Truth #6]

I think we can be awful and Pop can still try to avoid winning games.

[rascal]

It is more probable that Vassell will be held out the entire season or have reduced managed
minutes than he being responsible for causing the Spurs to fall out of the bottom three teams.

The bottom three, Spurs, Detroit and Houston are locked in and will stay in the bottom three.

[jjspur]

I don't necessarily agree that they have 5x the talent, but they are horribly coached / managed. With all their "talent" and a better coaching staff, they could have at least 20 wins by now. They are a bunch of young selfish knuckleheads and I think they are trying, but something is going on behind the scenes to make them worse than they actually are. You said it yourself the have 5x the talent but its obvious that something is not quite right with that team.

By the same token we have an HOF coach who at times makes curious line up changes and keeps certain players out with "injuries". How many times on this board have we seen don't bring back so and so player too soon because if he or the team plays well, we might win a game. If that isn't sneaky tanking I'm not sure what is.

I get it, we're doing it to try and get Wemby or a top player in the draft. Don't call it load management either. So many more teams are doing it now, that it has become an issue in the NBA management/players negotiations. I understand if you are a playoff type team and you want to rest your players a bit for a playoff run, but for cellar dwellers like the rockets and spurs, you can call it development all you want, but in the end its really just tanking 101 for a better pick in the draft.

I'm sure the spurs players are trying to win always giving their efforts, and I'm seeing the development I'm just not sure what the problem is .

I suspect that after the lottery, if the spurs fall out of the top four picks, someone in the front office will be fired or forced to resign. Tanking is no fun for the players or management and its bad for business, after all who wants to be like the rockets have been the last few years?

[DPG21920]

:lol 5x more talented but behind Spurs who have lost 16 in a row and got their ass whooped by the Spurs twice. Ok

[kht]

If we didn't become sellers at the deadline and Devin/Tre doesn't get hurt, we easily smash 23.5 TBH.

[DPG21920]

Spurs playing competitive basketball vs decent team….wait until Vassell is back. Hope they lose but I’m guessing even without Jak/Rich they will be more competitive.

[DPG21920]

That’s one game picked up for Spurs. Not gonna win 5 huh…

[rascal]

That’s one game picked up for Spurs. Not gonna win 5 huh…

Nope

[DPG21920]

Spurs are definitely going to leapfrog DET though IMO. Spurs have lost 16 in a row and are like 2-23 last 25 games and DET has not separated at all. Just one game ahead despite all that losing for SA.

DET is tanking super hard and when Vassell is back, SA will leap them IMO.

HOU
DET
SA
CHA

Bottom 4 IMO

Spurs tied with DET now. AFTER a 16 game losing streak. Only question is will CHA win enough to stay 4th because with Vassell back soon this team will stay ahead of DET and HOU unless something crazy happens IMVHO

[MultiTroll]

Man McDermott looked good last night.

https://vine.co/v/i27QqIr2FmE

Wait a minute, is that McDermott?
https://vine.co/v/i27QqIr2FmE

[slick'81]

Dont blow this shit San Antonio

[jjspur]

1 Houston just sucks, no matter how hard they try to win - a very disfunctional team, they'll end up with the worse record , but not necessarily the best pick.
2 & 3 Detroit and the spurs both know its development time - the team with the worst development probably gets the 2nd worst record. Its a tossup at this point.
4. Charlotte went on a little win streak which has probably given them the 4th worse record. With Lame lo & Bridges pretty much out, the surrender flag is coming out pretty soon if it isn't out already.

Its seems like a lot of posturing, but in the end its the lucky ping pong balls that will decide the fate of these 4 teams for Wemby & Scoot. Some team outside the bottom 4 could also get lucky (hope that doesn't happen) Hopefully we get a little bit lucky and start on a positive note for next year. :blah

[lefty20]

Detroit showing everyone how it's done. Went full Chris Webber in the name of the holy tank.

[duncan2150]

Spurs tied with DET now. AFTER a 16 game losing streak. Only question is will CHA win enough to stay 4th because with Vassell back soon this team will stay ahead of DET and HOU unless something crazy happens IMVHO

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

The good thing is that Charlotte has one of the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA while the Spurs have the 13th hardest, but we need to be careful lol

Houston is out, they're awful, Detroit same but they can win 4-5 games.

Next three games will give us a lot of informations, Houston two times and Indiana, if we win 2 or more games then we could loose a place in the lottery.

[KingKev]

Devonte Graham could be a huge asset down the stretch. Let both he and Keldon Chuck 10 3’s a game each and we got this.

[The Truth #6]

Definitely true. Ha.

[Jordan Jackson]

I think Haliburton is questionable tonight versus the Spurs with a sore calf. I don’t like where this is going. Hope Pop brings his A (tanking game) down the stretch.

[KingKev]

I think Haliburton is questionable tonight versus the Spurs with a sore calf. I don’t like where this is going. Hope Pop brings his A (tanking game) down the stretch.

We are a prime target for other teams to rest players down the stretch. This is exactly where Pop has fucked us the last few years. Thank god we can’t realistically drop lower than bottom 4.

[DPG21920]

Spurs tied with DET now. AFTER a 16 game losing streak. Only question is will CHA win enough to stay 4th because with Vassell back soon this team will stay ahead of DET and HOU unless something crazy happens IMVHO

Well what do you know :lol Who could have seen Spurs winning coming? Total shock. Luckily SA has the powerhouse Rockets who are “more talented than the Spurs” coming up next two games!

[rascal]

Well what do you know :lol Who could have seen Spurs winning coming? Total shock. Luckily SA has the powerhouse Rockets who are “more talented than the Spurs” coming up next two games!

A soft part of the schedule.

[DPG21920]

A soft part of the schedule.

Sure - but even then you argued Spurs weren’t going to win…Have to hope HOU pulls one win out or its going to be a nervous end to the season. Ya, SA schedule toughens up post HOU no doubt about that. Just have to see how it all shakes out and hope CHA can pull of 3-4 wins to help SA out…

[rascal]

So who had the under?

[GAustex]

I did
I was nervous a the beginning

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Fingers crossed for the "under' on this one. 24 wins probably doesn't get us into the top 3 picks.

Actually 24 wins would have still gotten into the 'top' 3, but we hit the under all the same.

[MultiTroll]

So who had the under?

Ya which Spurstalkers cashed?