The Changing Character of War (presentation)

[DMC]

l0CQsifJrMc

Interesting watch, long but worth it.

[Winehole23]

What did you find interesting, profe?

[SnakeBoy]

Here's shorter Zeihan interview that is interesting


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zt66z_F8Ns

Here's an even shorter Zeihan on inflation that is interesting


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ac0BOavsWaY&t=13s

Here's Zeihan on Crenshaws podcast. It's interesting


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSGKyR2_B70&t=1417s

[daboom1]

Good stuff, but I would be leary of Crenshaw. Look at some of the shit this guy voted yes too. He's in it for $$$$

[Winehole23]

What is it you guys find interesting? Cat got your tongues?

[DMC]

What is it you guys find interesting? Cat got your tongues?

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=300410&p=10788457#post10788457

You first.

[Winehole23]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=300410&p=10788457#post10788457

You first.so much the worse for your topic if you've got nothing to say about it

[Winehole23]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=300410&p=10788457#post10788457

You first.Sure.

I was unaware that the Tuskegee Study was still ongoing in the early 1970s until I read the 1972 AP story, which I had never seen. Had it not been published, the study might have continued.

[Winehole23]

That it started in the 1930s is often emphasized, that it stopped in the 1970s, and then only when it received unfavorable press, is not.

Your turn.

[DMC]

What did you find interesting, profe?

I think it's a decent look at the global population and how it affects war powers going forward.

[Winehole23]

I think it's a decent look at the global population and how it affects war powers going forward.how does it affect war powers going forward, in Zeihan's view?

[Winehole23]

The comparison with Paul Ehrlich stands out.


Geopolitical strategist Zeihan argues that we are heading toward a period of deglobalization, with ensuing chaos and disaster.

The author believes that the period between 1980 and 2015 was an aberration in human history: an era of plenty, reliability, and relative stability. Going forward from 2022, he writes, everything is going to become more expensive and more difficult to obtain. He traces part of the problem to demographic struggles, as rapidly aging populations are leading to significant decreases in viable labor forces. Another issue is the withdrawal of American leadership on the global state, including the protection of the vital sea lanes that made globalization possible. The most recognizable element is climate change, undermining food production in key parts of the world. Zeihan predicts that nations will increasingly resort to aggressive tactics to ensure their own security, with the emergence of regional blocs dominated by the player with the biggest guns. Countries that depend on trade will find it tough going. The U.S. is in the best position due to its natural resources, agricultural capacity, industrial base, and inherent adaptability. However, notes the author, radical reform and increased costs are inevitable. Zeihan is enthusiastic in his writing, and he covers a great deal of territory, some of it in superficial or questionable fashion. Are countries really going to develop their own pirate fleets to seize supply ships? Will the U.S. establish a quasi-empire of the Americas, using food as a weapon of intimidation? Is China facing collapse within a decade? Predictions of world-ending resource depletion and geopolitical disaster have been made before—and often. The Club of Rome and Paul Ehrlich were saying it in the 1970s, and their fears turned out to be misplaced. Humans face significant obstacles, but that has been the case for centuries. The climate crisis, however, has never been more urgent. Zeihan captures that sense, at least, but his cynicism was more palatable in Disunited Nations.

The book has entertainment value, but some of the material should be taken with many grains of salt.https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/peter-zeihan/the-end-of-the-world-is-just-the-beginning/

[Winehole23]

Zeihan makes it clear that the world of 2050 will not produce and transport as much food as it now does. He projects famine. Climate considerations suggest that famine will be global and not merely a regional problemhttps://ruminations.blog/2020/11/18/review-the-disunited-nations-by-peter-zeihan/

[Winehole23]

On Disunited Nations


Zeihan opens in 1946 when the U.S. economy was half the world’s economy. The way Zeihan sees it, unlike the empires of the past whose conquests were mostly military, the U.S. offered the world a bribe. First, the U.S. would patrol the seas and guarantee freedom of navigation everywhere to all. Second, the U.S. would fight and bleed for any ally when necessary. Third, the U.S. would open its markets to its partners even if they partly protected their own. Fourth, the U.S. would provide financial liquidity to grease all the wheels and make this work.


This four-part bribe has worked for the most part to grow the economy of the planet, feed expanding populations, and in general, keep any tendency to militaristic conquest to a minimum. The trade relationships and supply chains developed over the last half of the 20th Century, and the first decades of the 21st, are a testimony to its success. It hasn’t been perfect. Not everyone wanted to be on board. But as it happened, the great majority of the world’s economies did get on board (even China since 1972) and have benefitted, over-all (not without hiccups) as a result.


The problem is, the bribe has run its course. The U.S. economy is now about twenty-five percent of the world economy, not half. The five-hundred-fifty ship navy the U.S. had in 1946 is now down to about three-hundred ships, and one-hundred of those dedicated to supporting nine super-carriers. The U.S. can no longer afford to be the guarantor of the sea lanes, nor be an open market to any import. The same is becoming true of standing military commitments around the world. The American people are tired of bleeding, or the threat of bleeding, for others whose interests are not often aligned with our own, and there are not enough dollars to float all economic boats.

Not only is the “great order” unwinding, but scatter-shot American foreign policy, a policy without any clear direction, is helping dissolve it even faster than it otherwise needs to go (not that other governments are much help). The question is, what happens when all of those U.S. guarantees are gone (the U.S. is, for now, still patrolling the seas). That future is what this book is about.

[Winehole23]

On The Absent Superpower.

Snacks has been parroting this guy for awhile.


While most books on geopolitics implicitly assume some basic continuation of current conditions, Zeihan starts by asserting that the entire geopolitical structure of the world has changed, driven by the shale oil revolution here in the U.S. He then proceeds to work out what that structure means for the rest of the book. This is a remarkably bold and comprehensive vision—one that is outside the bounds of most commentary I am familiar with.


The key idea here is that, with the shale oil revolution, the U.S. will soon be energy independent and, with that, will have little need—and even less desire—to engage with the rest of the world. While this idea is inconsistent with the post-World War II period, it is consistent with prior American history. It is certainly consistent with what we see happening today.


If true, things certainly would be different this time. Zeihan takes that idea and runs around the world with it. If the U.S. does indeed pull away from the world and becomes an absent superpower, what does that mean?
https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/book-review-the-absent-superpower-by-peter-zeihan

[Winehole23]

Deglobalization, ecological plight and the end of the US empire are interesting themes for erstwhile jingos for American exceptionalism like DMC and Snacks. I guess it helps that Zeihan provides a ready repackaging of the same, he seems to know his audience well.

[Winehole23]

Doom for everyone but the US and a small handful of other countries -- Aussie, NZ, and Mexico among them.

[DMC]

how does it affect war powers going forward, in Zeihan's view?

Watch the video. I'm not going to play your "book report" Q&A game.

[DMC]

Deglobalization, ecological plight and the end of the US empire are interesting themes for erstwhile jingos for American exceptionalism like DMC and Snacks. I guess it helps that Zeihan provides a ready repackaging of the same, he seems to know his audience well.

He's presenting to the US Army at Ft Benning.

[Winehole23]

Watch the video. I'm not going to play your "book report" Q&A game.Nothing to say about your own OP?

What a pity.

[DMC]

Nothing to say about your own OP?

What a pity.

I said something. Obviously you're going to use this opportunity to share your vast wealth of knowledge about all things geopolitical, things you glean from your days slinging spaghetti and salads at the local Olive Garden.

[Winehole23]

I said something. Obviously you're going to use this opportunity to share your vast wealth of knowledge about all things geopolitical, things you glean from your days slinging spaghetti and salads at the local Olive Garden.now that you're all done talking about your own topic, back to what you do best, personal gossip about other posters.

:lol

[daboom1]

I said something. Obviously you're going to use this opportunity to share your vast wealth of knowledge about all things geopolitical, things you glean from your days slinging spaghetti and salads at the local Olive Garden.

Poor guy doesn't have a car and has to use his mountain bike to get to work and back. It's definitely good cardio, but showing up to work sweaty and stinky probably isn't fun for co-workers/customers.

[DMC]

now that you're all done talking about your own topic, back to what you do best, personal gossip about other posters.

:lol

14 posts from you and somehow I am all alone.

[Winehole23]

14 posts from you and somehow I am all alone.most of them related to Zeihan, whom you seem to be avoiding, for some reason.

[Th'Pusher]

Deglobalization, ecological plight and the end of the US empire are interesting themes for erstwhile jingos for American exceptionalism like DMC and Snacks. I guess it helps that Zeihan provides a ready repackaging of the same, he seems to know his audience well.

Didn’t watch the videos, but Sam Harris had Zeihan as well as Ian Brenner on his podcast a week or so ago. Brenner took a much less fatalistic view than Zeihan or at least assumed a longer time horizon.

The somewhat rosier outlook for the US, as compared to China, form Zeihan was largely predicated on being able to leverage the the labor from Mexico and South America to mitigate the waning American population , much of which presumably would require a more lax immigration policy.

[DMC]

most of them related to Zeihan, whom you seem to be avoiding, for some reason.

I shared the video I thought some might enjoy. I didn't offer a dissertation on it. Don't watch it if you need Cliff Notes.

[Winehole23]

I shared the video I thought some mind enjoy. I didn't offer a dissertation on it. Don't watch it if you need Cliff Notes.fine by me if you have nothing more to say about your own OP

:tu

[SnakeBoy]

The comparison with Paul Ehrlich stands out.

https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/peter-zeihan/the-end-of-the-world-is-just-the-beginning/

In what ways do you think Zeihan is comparable to Ehrlich?

Be specific

[Winehole23]

In what ways do you think Zeihan is comparable to Ehrlich?

Be specificseems Kirkus based the comparison on catastrophism, it was their comparison, not mine. does it strike you as off base?

[daboom1]

^busted :lol

[SnakeBoy]

seems Kirkus based the comparison on catastrophism, it was their comparison, not mine. does it strike you as off base?


His whole schtick is posting and article or tweet that he doesn't really understand in an attempt to appear as a well-read waiter. You push him in the slightest way on details and he lashes out.

[daboom1]

^

[ElNono]

Poor guy beep boop

[daboom1]

This message is hidden because ElNono is on your ignore list.


http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/zgtu.gif

[ElNono]

^^^ lol beep boop reads every one of them

[Winehole23]

*personal swipe*I'll take your non-denial denial as a no, unless you have something to add to the topic.

[daboom1]

^busted :lol

[DMC]

I think the average listener would take his statistics for granted. The legwork required to debunk his stats that he uses to support his thesis would be a hindrance to doing so, and so many probably just accept his claims at face value. However, there has to be a small handful of people who are out to disprove him. I haven't looked for those yet, but I am sure they are out there. His presentation style is easy to hear and accept because we're in the country with the best outlook, according to him. Plus he has a very polished presentation style that's not annoying like some.