FiveThirtyEight2022-23 NBA Player Projections

[Drom John]

Dominick Barlow
Wins above replacement projection
Category: MARGINAL PROSPECT
5-yr market value: $13.1m
Most comparable: J. Vanderbilt 2019

Keita Bates-Diop
Wins above replacement projection
Category: SCRUB
5-yr market value: $10.5m
Most comparable: Darius Songaila 2005

Malaki Branham
Wins above replacement projection
Category: OK PROSPECT
5-yr market value: $21.6m
Most comparable: Malik Beasley 2017

Devontae Cacok
Wins above replacement projection
Category: ROTATION PLAYER
5-yr market value: $18.9m
Most comparable: Amile Jefferson 2020

Zach Collins
Wins above replacement projection
Category: DEFENSIVE SPECIALIST
5-yr market value: $16.7m
Most comparable: Carlos Rogers 1996
9th most comparable: J. Lauverne 2017

Gorgui Dieng
Wins above replacement projection
Category: ROTATION PLAYER
5-yr market value: $8.3m
Most comparable: Steve Hawes 1983

Jordan Hall
not rated

Alize Johnson
Wins above replacement projection
Category: SCRUB
5-yr market value: $5.6m
Most comparable: DeJuan Blair 2016
10th most comparable: Aron Baynes 2014

Keldon Johnson
Wins above replacement projection
Category: UP-AND-COMER
5-yr market value: $83.5m
Most comparable: Tobias Harris 2016

Tre Jones
Wins above replacement projection
Category: ROTATION PLAYER
5-yr market value: $57.6m
Most comparable: Jalen Brunson 2020
2nd most comparable: Cory Joseph 2015
6th most comparable: Vinny Del Negro 1990

Tommy Kuhse
not rated

Romeo Langford
Wins above replacement projection
Category: ROTATION PLAYER
5-yr market value: $31.4m
Most comparable: C.Hutchison 2020

Doug McDermott
Wins above replacement projection
Category: SCRUB
5-yr market value: $2.6m
Most comparable: Willie Green 2013

Jakob Poeltl
Wins above replacement projection
Category: BORDERLINE ALL-STAR
5-yr market value: $130.7m
Most comparable: Steven Adams 2021

Joshua Primo
Wins above replacement projection
Category: PROJECT
5-yr market value: $38.9m
Most comparable: Troy Brown, Jr. 2020

Josh Richardson
Wins above replacement projection
Category: ROTATION PLAYER
5-yr market value: $20.8m
Most comparable: Courtney Lee 2015

Isaiah Roby
Wins above replacement projection
Category: PROJECT
5-yr market value: $8.0m
Most comparable: Craig Smith 2009

Jeremy Sochan
Wins above replacement projection
Category: GOOD PROSPECT
5-yr market value: $67.2m
Most comparable: Justise Winslow 2016

D.J. Stewart, Jr.
Wins above replacement projection
Category: MARGINAL PROSPECT
5-yr market value: $9.8m
Most comparable: Aaron Harrison 2016

Devin Vassell
Wins above replacement projection
Category: UP-AND-COMER
5-yr market value: $74.1m
Most comparable: Luke Kennard 2019

Blake Wesley
Wins above replacement projection
Category: OK PROSPECT
5-yr market value: $29.5m
Most comparable: Archie Goodwin 2014
6th most comparable: Dejounte Murray 2017
9th most comparable: Lonnie Walker 2019

Joe Wieskamp
Wins above replacement projection
Category: PROJECT
5-yr market value: $15.3m
Most comparable: Wayne Selden 2018

Robert Woodard II
Wins above replacement projection
Category: PROJECT
5-yr market value: $13.8m
Most comparable: S. Pietkiewicz 1980

[Chinook]

Depressing. I don't know how well their college projections track, but they don't have the Spurs as having done particularly well. At least they like Keldon and Devin.

[KingKev]

Advanced anal boys get in here.

[exstatic]

Doug McDermott
Wins above replacement projection
Category: SCRUB
5-yr market value: $2.6m
Most comparable: Willie Green 2013

This one will make ST happy.


Jakob Poeltl
Wins above replacement projection
Category: BORDERLINE ALL-STAR
5-yr market value: $130.7m
Most comparable: Steven Adams 2021

This one won’t.

[The Truth #6]

“Doug McDermott
Wins above replacement projection
Category: SCRUB
5-yr market value: $2.6m
Most comparable: Willie Green 2013”

LMAO

[KingKev]

“Doug McDermott
Wins above replacement projection
Category: SCRUB
5-yr market value: $2.6m
Most comparable: Willie Green 2013”

LMAO

My absolute favourite part and spot on. Also, our highest paid player.

I won’t comment on the rookies but should be no surprises here other than Zollins is interesting….

[slick'81]

😂Tre jones=delnegro

[exstatic]

My absolute favourite part and spot on. Also, our highest paid player.

I won’t comment on the rookies but should be no surprises here other than Zollins is interesting….

Zollins stats, pre-Spurs, look a lot like Poodle’s stats, pre-Spurs.

[KingKev]

Zollins stats, pre-Spurs, look a lot like Poodle’s stats, pre-Spurs.

I’ve been an early proponent of Zollins’ upside and think he will be one of the bigger surprises this year.

[The Truth #6]

My absolute favourite part and spot on. Also, our highest paid player.

I won’t comment on the rookies but should be no surprises here other than Zollins is interesting….

It’s objectively funny.

[KingKev]

It’s objectively funny.

And sobering… pass the bottle

[K...]

Can we see our tank rivals okc and houston

[KingKev]

Can we see our tank rivals okc and houston

I was thinking the same + Indy.

Probably each have more up & coming and high level prospects.

[TD 21]

At least they're finally positioned to get those types of high ceiling prospects.

The Pistons (Cunningham, Ivey, Bey, Duren), Magic (Banchero, Wagner, Carter Jr., Suggs) and Rockets (Green, Smith, Sengun, Eason) have all ripped off the band-aid within' the past two years and already assembled the makings of potentially high ceiling cores, while also being on track for another high pick in '23.

[exstatic]

Can we see our tank rivals okc and houston

538 isn’t a pay site. Fivethirtyeight.com

[paperboy77]

Pretty damn good assessment. Feel kinda bad for Jakub wasting away here.

[KingKev]

So we’ve assembled the LEAST talented roster in the NBA in terms of both current talent and upside potential but we will still probably win 25ish games resulting in a mid lottery pick which we will use to select a moderate talent, high character player.

Pop era needs to end.

[hombre]

Pretty damn good assessment. Feel kinda bad for Jakub wasting away here.

Traded by deadline if the team starts over performing.

[ismael-robert]

Low character players won't stay in SA

[poopbox]

Poeltl has stone hands, barely dunks, and has never made 7 free-throws in a row but he a BORDERLINE ALL STAR:lol

[DPG21920]

All that truly matters is that Keldon, Vassell and Sochan are legit. We know Jakob is and he should have value in trade or keeping. Sure it would be nice for Primo to prove to be a legit starting level player, but the big 3 in Keldon/Vassell/Sochan matter most by far.

[KingKev]

All that truly matters is that Keldon, Vassell and Sochan are legit. We know Jakob is and he should have value in trade or keeping. Sure it would be nice for Primo to prove to be a legit starting level player, but the big 3 in Keldon/Vassell/Sochan matter most by far.

Big 3 bench core?

[Em-City]

We trassshhhhhhh :lol

[Dverde]

Not sure how McNuggets is a scrub while Davis Bertrans and Duncan Robinson are “rotational players”? DDR is “Average Starter”, Dejounte is “Borderline All-Star”, Westbrook is a “scrub” :lol

[J_Paco]

Big 3 bench core?

Do you just hate everyone & everything about the Spurs or is all the whining for attention grabbing purposes?

The Spurs dropped the ball waiting 3 or 4 years too long to tank, but at least the moment is finally here. They some young pieces - whether you think they are quality is debatable - with hopefully the ability to draft a franchise shifting one soon.

And they can likely flip Poeltl for even more draft capital, yet you'll still reasons to complain.

[KingKev]

Do you just hate everyone & everything about the Spurs or is all the whining for attention grabbing purposes?

The Spurs dropped the ball waiting 3 or 4 years too long to tank, but at least the moment is finally here. They some young pieces - whether you think they are quality is debatable - with hopefully the ability to draft a franchise shifting one soon.

And they can likely flip Poeltl for even more draft capital, yet you'll still reasons to complain.

I hate sniffers who don’t see reality or watch the greater NBA. That is not and is unlikely to be a big 3. Anyone who watches the NBA in entirety should see that.

[GAustex]

All this hate should be reserved for the dumb ass coach

[J_Paco]

I hate sniffers who don’t see reality or watch the greater NBA. That is not and is unlikely to be a big 3. Anyone who watches the NBA in entirety should see that.

I never said anything about them being a "Big 3" or agreeing that they are. I do think they can have value & can help accelerate the rebuild, but the Spurs still have a lot work to do.

We have some young pieces, but they need to find elite talent for the guys that we/they have to compliment.

[Dejounte]

I hate sniffers who don’t see reality or watch the greater NBA. That is not and is unlikely to be a big 3. Anyone who watches the NBA in entirety should see that.

In other words, your whole personality is based on how other people feel and think. You’re not very fucking original. That’s just a douchebag way of seeing things. It’s an online persona that has no business being personified in real-life person to person interaction because you know damn well everyone will see you as an uninteresting asshole. But you manifest it here because of who-knows-why personal issues you have and it’s easy to display it when you’re anonymous on the internet.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

That list shows me that their model is far from perfect. Grabbing other players with similar stats as your predictive factor is ok I suppose, but someone like Cacock with his limited minutes gets data that's a little skewed I think.

Not bad, just certainly not flawless by any means. A solid C grade.

[Elementis]

so you expect the Spurs to have the prospect pool for a dynasty before they even tanked?
not an expert on this, but i heard that you need to tank first, then get the prospects.

[KingKev]

I never said anything about them being a "Big 3" or agreeing that they are. I do think they can have value & can help accelerate the rebuild, but the Spurs still have a lot work to do.

We have some young pieces, but they need to find elite talent for the guys that we/they have to compliment.

You clapped back to me downplaying our supposed big 3.

At least ours isn’t 100mm/yr for Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson. We have that.

[KingKev]

In other words, your whole personality is based on how other people feel and think. You’re not very fucking original. That’s just a douchebag way of seeing things. It’s an online persona that has no business being personified in real-life person to person interaction because you know damn well everyone will see you as an uninteresting asshole. But you manifest it here because of who-knows-why personal issues you have and it’s easy to display it when you’re anonymous on the internet.

Another deep dive into a Spurstalk members’ psyche by resident psychologist Dejounte (who hates the player his namesake is based on). I guess in the end I’m not a cultural fit. You are the most emotional poster on this forum; so much so I’ve noticed the cyclicality in your whining. Every 30 days…

I’m probably the least anonymous person on this board outside of Kori and LJ. I have a profile pic that is me, I use the same moniker across multiple platforms and am transparent regarding where I am from and reside. You are also quite transparent given I can read your menstrual cycle based on your posts.

So while we are digging deep which one is it… 2nd year community college engineering student, aspiring psychologist or social media analyst creeping professional athletes socials to crack the code?

[Dejounte]

Another deep dive into a Spurstalk members’ psyche by resident psychologist Dejounte (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=51342) (who hates the player his namesake is based on). I guess in the end I’m not a cultural fit. You are the most emotional poster on this forum; so much so I’ve noticed the cyclicality in your whining. Every 30 days…

I’m probably the least anonymous person on this board outside of Kori and LJ. I have a profile pic that is me, I use the same moniker across multiple platforms and am transparent regarding where I am from and reside. You are also quite transparent given I can read your menstrual cycle based on your posts.

So while we are digging deep which one is it… 2nd year community college engineering student, aspiring psychologist or social media analyst creeping professional athletes socials to crack the code?

Fuck. I forgot that photo was you. :lmao Anyone looks at that photo and it screams fucking douchebag. That’s why the other guy thought you were using it to clown on somebody. It actually turned out that clown was you. This is fucking hilarious, bro. That hairline is receding, they have this thing called HIMS… you should try it out. You look like one of those bitches who get their ass waxed and thrive on fake masculinity. The photo actually explains everything. I don’t know if you thought anything in your post made any sense at all. Bottomline is you know I’m right about you and your pansy looking ass spending every day on this site focused on other people’s thoughts. Is that why you look so much like a tryhard? Cause you care so much about what people think? Pussy.

[KingKev]

Fuck. I forgot that photo was you. :lmao Anyone looks at that photo and it screams fucking douchebag. That’s why the other guy thought you were using it to clown on somebody. It actually turned out that clown was you. This is fucking hilarious, bro. That hairline is receding, they have this thing called HIMS… you should try it out. You look like one of those bitches who get their ass waxed and thrive on fake masculinity. The photo actually explains everything. I don’t know if you thought anything in your post made any sense at all. Bottomline is you know I’m right about you and your pansy looking ass spending every day on this site focused on other people’s thoughts. Is that why you look so much like a tryhard? Cause you care so much about what people think? Pussy.

Haha it’s actually a proper fade and markup. You wouldn’t be welcomed in a real barbershop.

Let’s get back to basketball talk.

[J_Paco]

You clapped back to me downplaying our supposed big 3.

At least ours isn’t 100mm/yr for Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson. We have that.

No, I "clapped back" cause you are overly negative about everything including two promising players like Vassell and Johnson.

I don't consider them a "big 3" for a variety of reasons, but mostly because I don't think Poeltl is staying here beyond this season.

Also, I'd like to think that any future "big 3" would include at least one All - NBA caliber player which the Spurs clearly lack.