Anyone here hurt by rising interest rates/recession yet?

[CosmicCowboy]

What we need is a large scale financial crisis in 2023/24 which would do wonders on a lot of things, hopefully cause negative inflation and skyrocketing unemployment as well as tank house prices to finally at long last give responsible cash-buyers (like me who have been waiting forever to pounce) a chance, but most importantly of all cause a massive red wave in November 2024 and get rid of Biden and all of the Senate Dems in purple and red states once and for all.

Bring on the great recession of 2023-24. Bring it hard.

You might be able to make huge deals in commercial property the next few years but residential property is still undersupplied. Mortgage rates are still under annual housing inflation rates so the longer you wait the harder it will be.

[CosmicCowboy]

The spread on interest rates is still going to hurt your small banks and credit unions. I refi'd the lake house with Security Service 2 years ago at 2.38% on 15 years. They kept the loan in house. They are now having to offer 5.5% on 16 month cds to get deposits. That shit has to hurt.

[Blake]

The spread on interest rates is still going to hurt your small banks and credit unions. I refi'd the lake house with Security Service 2 years ago at 2.38% on 15 years. They kept the loan in house. They are now having to offer 5.5% on 16 month cds to get deposits. That shit has to hurt.

Yeah I got lucky on my chauffer's condo in Aspen like that too

[CosmicCowboy]

After the core inflation report this morning odds are the fed will raise another quarter point next month.

[Winehole23]

After the core inflation report this morning odds are the fed will raise another quarter point next month.https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110689&page=5&p=10860148&viewfull=1#post10860148https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110689&page=5&p=10860149&viewfull=1#post10860149

[Winehole23]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110689&page=5&p=10860148&viewfull=1#post10860148

[ElNono]

After the core inflation report this morning odds are the fed will raise another quarter point next month.

It's working though. We're projected to be ~1% lower than last year. Gotta get to < 4%.

[Tyronn Lue]

Yeah I got lucky on my chauffer's condo in Aspen like that too
OMG your chauffer settled for a condo? thoughts and prayers

[Blake]

OMG your chauffer settled for a condo? thoughts and prayers

It's tough out there

[CosmicCowboy]

Yeah I got lucky on my chauffer's condo in Aspen like that too

You got so lucky they are only charging you 24% on your credit card balances.

[SnakeBoy]

Went from it's transitory to we just got get it below 4% :lol

[ElNono]

Went from it's transitory to we just got get it below 4% :lol

It is transitory since it was below 4% before the last GOP POTUS destroyed the economy per par...

[HemisfairArena]

It is transitory since it was below 4% before the last GOP POTUS destroyed the economy per par...

Nolife,,,,

[ElNono]

I'm a Trumptard,,,,

[HemisfairArena]

NoLifer,,,,,

[MultiTroll]

^ the schtick continues :lol
https://secularpakistan.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/dead-parrot.jpg
GetSmartInsights.com | Understanding Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder and Its Management (https://getsmartinsights.com/topic/20/understanding-obsessive-compulsive-disorder-and-its-management/?kwd=Obsessive+Compulsive+Disorder+Cure&ekw=rs&utm_term=get%20help%20for%20ocd&utm_medium=b&g_ti=kwd-72156246139024:loc-190&g_de=c&g_ci=674575181&g_ai=1154489032404080&rac=Obsessive+Compulsive+Disorder+Cure&utm_content=1&msclkid=41914a8874b71e32eed32efde1f62bc6)

[ElNono]

^ the schtick continues :lol
https://secularpakistan.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/dead-parrot.jpg
GetSmartInsights.com | Understanding Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder and Its Management (https://getsmartinsights.com/topic/20/understanding-obsessive-compulsive-disorder-and-its-management/?kwd=Obsessive+Compulsive+Disorder+Cure&ekw=rs&utm_term=get%20help%20for%20ocd&utm_medium=b&g_ti=kwd-72156246139024:loc-190&g_de=c&g_ci=674575181&g_ai=1154489032404080&rac=Obsessive+Compulsive+Disorder+Cure&utm_content=1&msclkid=41914a8874b71e32eed32efde1f62bc6)

:lol the Hemisboomer rodeo

[FuzzyLumpkins]

He has been trying real hard to paint his "enemies" as losers. Someone really hit a nerve because he has been melting down hard for a month.

[SnakeBoy]

1664269662295846915

[ChumpDumper]

Probably not.

[ElNono]

1664269662295846915

I don't recall "all those articles about wages"... I do remember about strong job and record unemployment, which has not been revised...

[Winehole23]

“Tight labor markets have raised concerns about the role of labor costs in persistently high inflation readings. Analysis shows that higher labor costs are passed along to customers in the form of higher nonhousing services prices, however the effect on overall inflation is very small. Labor-cost growth has no meaningful effect on goods or housing services inflation. Overall, labor-cost growth is responsible for only about 0.1 percentage point of recent core PCE inflation.”

Fascinating research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, pondering the impact of wage gains on inflation.

Counterintuitively, they found that rising wages have a minimal impact on inflation. How little? The study found that a “1% point increase in labor costs causes only a 0.15% rise in core PCE inflation” over four years – an increase of less than 0.04% annually.https://ritholtz.com/2023/06/labor-costs-inflation/

[spurraider21]

very good jobs report this month as well. and even with all the added jobs, unemployment ticked up slightly to 3.7%. makes sense given that the labor participation rates were also up. prime age participation is the highest its been in over 20 years, now better than the leadup to the great recession.

fed meets in ~1.5 weeks, which is also when we'd get the may inflation numbers. if that number ticks below april's 4.9%, i imagine they will hold off on raising rates again

[SnakeBoy]

very good jobs report this month as well. and even with all the added jobs, unemployment ticked up slightly to 3.7%. makes sense given that the labor participation rates were also up. prime age participation is the highest its been in over 20 years, now better than the leadup to the great recession.

fed meets in ~1.5 weeks, which is also when we'd get the may inflation numbers. if that number ticks below april's 4.9%, i imagine they will hold off on raising rates again

I hope not but you may be right

[ElNono]

very good jobs report this month as well. and even with all the added jobs, unemployment ticked up slightly to 3.7%. makes sense given that the labor participation rates were also up. prime age participation is the highest its been in over 20 years, now better than the leadup to the great recession.

fed meets in ~1.5 weeks, which is also when we'd get the may inflation numbers. if that number ticks below april's 4.9%, i imagine they will hold off on raising rates again

I think they'll raise interest again. Maybe a quarter. The idea is to be aggressive until you see a measurable cool-down.

[spurraider21]

I think they'll raise interest again. Maybe a quarter. The idea is to be aggressive until you see a measurable cool-down.
Kinda foolish to raise rates in June in response to May numbers. From everything i read you expect at least a 6 month gap between rate changes and measurable effects

we’re already seeing an inflation cooldown when a lot of rate hikes that have yet to really have an impact

[CosmicCowboy]

With that latest jobs report they will probably raise again. The fed believes that you fight inflation by slowing the economy until enough people get laid off and can't spend money. Cruel but true. The huge companies are laying off people everywhere but the small and medium are still hiring. They might skip a month but I don't think they are finished raising rates.

[ElNono]

Kinda foolish to raise rates in June in response to May numbers. From everything i read you expect at least a 6 month gap between rate changes and measurable effects

we’re already seeing an inflation cooldown when a lot of rate hikes that have yet to really have an impact


With that latest jobs report they will probably raise again. The fed believes that you fight inflation by slowing the economy until enough people get laid off and can't spend money. Cruel but true. The huge companies are laying off people everywhere but the small and medium are still hiring. They might skip a month but I don't think they are finished raising rates.

Exactly. What I mean by measurable and aggressive is that you start seeing reports with not just no growth, but a decidedly downturn trend.

It's not just the May numbers, the previous months have been the same. The trend so far has been either up or level. You want to see 2-3 months of downturn, and until that happens you're going to see rate increases IMO.

[spurraider21]

Exactly. What I mean by measurable and aggressive is that you start seeing reports with not just no growth, but a decidedly downturn trend.

It's not just the May numbers, the previous months have been the same. The trend so far has been either up or level. You want to see 2-3 months of downturn, and until that happens you're going to see rate increases IMO.


Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ave


2023
6.4
6.0
5.0
4.9
Avail.
June
13










2022
7.5
7.9
8.5
8.3
8.6
9.1
8.5
8.3
8.2
7.7
7.1
6.5
8.0

[ElNono]

Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ave


2023
6.4
6.0
5.0
4.9
Avail.
June
13










2022
7.5
7.9
8.5
8.3
8.6
9.1
8.5
8.3
8.2
7.7
7.1
6.5
8.0



When you see 6+ months of 4% or less, then you have a trend. The real target goal is the historical number: 2%. But you don't need to keep raising rates to get there, you need a decidedly downward trend.

Don't forget these raising rates are also fighting external factors. The OPEC+ decrease in output today, for example, is likely going to bring it up a bit more again.

[spurraider21]

When you see 6+ months of 4% or less, then you have a trend. The real target goal is the historical number: 2%. But you don't need to keep raising rates to get there, you need a decidedly downward trend.

Don't forget these raising rates are also fighting external factors. The OPEC+ decrease in output today, for example, is likely going to bring it up a bit more again.
not at the target yet, but a clear downward trend exists

[ElNono]

not at the target yet, but a clear downward trend exists

I could be wrong, tbh... I do think those numbers are still too high for what the real goal is, so I expect interest rates to continue slowly going up.

[SnakeBoy]

Saudi Arabia Is Slashing Oil Supply — And It Could Mean Higher Gas Prices For US Drivers
The Saudi cut of 1 million barrels per day, to start in July, comes as the other OPEC+ producers agreed in a meeting in Vienna to extend earlier production cuts through next year.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/saudi-arabia-is-slashing-oil-supply-it-could-mean-higher-gas-prices-for-us-drivers_n_647d2840e4b0b4444c7f89b6

[Winehole23]

Board conservatives still praying for det recession.

1666073525499691008

[CosmicCowboy]

Board conservatives still praying for det recession.



That was a fucking stupid comment. :rolleyes

[Winehole23]

That was a fucking stupid comment. :rolleyesseems to have touched a nerve, are you feeling tender?

[CosmicCowboy]

seems to have touched a nerve, are you feeling tender?

No, and I'm damn sure not praying for a recession. Like I said, stupid fucking comment.

[Winehole23]

No, and I'm damn sure not praying for a recession. Like I said, stupid fucking comment.ok, crankypants. :lol

I'll put you down for tender feelings

[boutons_deux]

The oligarchy wants Biden, Dems defeated, so Repugs will cut $Ts more of the oligarchy's taxes, add $Ts in loopholes, subsidies, etc, plus Repugs to "deconstruct the administrative state", aka neoliberalism cubed.

So the oligarchy prays for, pimps for a recession in 2024 to defeat the Dems. Same strategy the Repugs used in the Obama years.

[boutons_deux]

Today Goldman Sacks lowered their prediction for recession

[spurraider21]

May inflation reports has inflation down to 4%

[SnakeBoy]

Core inflation +.4%

[TSA]

May inflation reports has inflation down to 4%

https://twitter.com/themarketswork/status/1668687348710920192

[spurraider21]

core cpi is also down from last month (core cpi is just cpi but without factoring in energy and food)

and yeah, inflation is outpacing wage gains. nobody said 4% CPI or 5% core cpi is the target number. but it continues to move in the right direction, and we still havent felt the impact of the more recent rate hikes either (usually have a lagging effect of at least 6 months)

[scott]

PPI has been in a good spot the last two months, that's the key number I'll be watching for tomorrow. If it comes in under 2.0, things will be looking good.

[TSA]

https://twitter.com/AndyPuzder/status/1668796530784862210

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao people understand that inflation already happened a year ago.

[Winehole23]

core CPI down to 3%, continuing a downward trend

1679162031293841409

[ChumpDumper]

core CPI down to 3%, continuing a downward trend

1679162031293841409

Bad news for Biden.

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F01nRAKXgAQbXx-?format=jpg&name=small

[spurraider21]

thats not core CPI thats down to 3%, thats regular CPI, which includes food/energy

core CPI which excludes those is still trending down, but at 4.8% (still checked in lower than the projected 5%)

[TSA]

thats not core CPI thats down to 3%, thats regular CPI, which includes food/energy

core CPI which excludes those is still trending down, but at 4.8% (still checked in lower than the projected 5%)

some positive news :bobo

[spurraider21]

some positive news :bobo
magats having to deal with positive jobs and inflation reports

https://media.tenor.com/rkIxDZ4IX_4AAAAd/crying-girl.gif

[CosmicCowboy]

Actually core CPI may overestimate inflation. i/3 of CPI is rent including "estimated what it would rent for" in owner occupied housing.

[TSA]

https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1679125112707072003

https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1679125118235164675

https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1679125124891521027

https://media.tenor.com/rkIxDZ4IX_4AAAAd/crying-girl.gif

[ChumpDumper]

Meh, Republicans wouldn't do shit about inflation except blame trans people.

This inflation/interest rate stuff is still mild compared to the 70s and 80s.

[spurraider21]

tl;dr

inflation numbers are getting better

here's why that's bad news...

[spurraider21]

a lot of questionable takes there. he says "today's print is confirmation that 3% inflation is the new normal"

wtf is that based on? its good that its down to 3% compared to where we were. nobody said we've reached our target. plenty of the recent rate hikes have yet to be felt, so theres definitely reason to believe the numbers will continue to improve

"as we head to recession..."

why is this being said as though its granted we are heading toward a recession?

[ElNono]

Fed has made very clear their target is 2%, but historically it has always hovered between 2%-3%...

Unsure how that is the "new" normal...

[SnakeBoy]

Two more 25 basis point rate hikes pretty much baked in unless something unexpected happens

https://cdn-0.inflationdata.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Monthly-Inflation-2019-June-2023.png?ezimgfmt=ng:webp/ngcb1

[SnakeBoy]

a lot of questionable takes there. he says "today's print is confirmation that 3% inflation is the new normal"

wtf is that based on? its good that its down to 3% compared to where we were. nobody said we've reached our target. plenty of the recent rate hikes have yet to be felt, so theres definitely reason to believe the numbers will continue to improve

"as we head to recession..."

why is this being said as though its granted we are heading toward a recession?

It was an almost universal view that the Fed's rapid rate hikes would break the financial system and lead to a recession. Only thing that broke so far was a few specialty banks. Seems we're past that point but bears rarely get to be in control like they have been and some aways slow to become bulls. Then again the economy is far from out of the woods so I wouldn't call them wrong yet. Roubrini spent like 5 years predicting the GFC before it happened exactly as he said it would. Timing is difficult, best to just stay nimble.

[spurraider21]

It was an almost universal view that the Fed's rapid rate hikes would break the financial system and lead to a recession. Only thing that broke so far was a few specialty banks. Seems we're past that point but bears rarely get to be in control like they have been and some aways slow to become bulls. Then again the economy is far from out of the woods so I wouldn't call them wrong yet. Roubrini spent like 5 years predicting the GFC before it happened exactly as he said it would. Timing is difficult, best to just stay nimble.
:lol

[pgardn]

magats having to deal with positive jobs and inflation reports

https://media.tenor.com/rkIxDZ4IX_4AAAAd/crying-girl.gif

I found this very funny.
I wonder what the situation was? If this was acted out it is incredibly good.
I also like the sea urchins crawling up the wall. gives it a Sponge Bob feel which brings back great memories.

[SnakeBoy]

This could throw a wrinkle into things

Rising Russian Oil Prices Test Western Resolve
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Rising-Russian-Oil-Prices-Test-Western-Resolve.html

https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/tinymce/2023-07/1689252130-o_1h57kbp86979eha19j41cmi1r718.jpg
https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/tinymce/2023-07/1689252138-o_1h57kc1mq1pdl1vmurm5560pu88.jpg


But a vast shadow fleet of (mostly Indian and Greek) tankers has emerged since sanctions ratcheted up last year, helping to haul the nation’s oil and work around the cap. Yet in a potential twist, yesterday Bloomberg reported that the fleet of tankers that sprouted up out of nowhere to keep Russia’s oil moving has disbanded even faster than it emerged:

The "shadow fleet" of tankers, which was created to ensure the transportation of Russian oil, has shrunk tenfold.

[SnakeBoy]

Oil Prices Balloon On Largest Single-Week Crude Inventory Crash In Years
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Balloon-On-Largest-Single-Week-Crude-Inventory-Crash-In-Years.html

Crude -15.4 million vs. -900,000 expected :wow

[ChumpDumper]

Oil Prices Balloon On Largest Single-Week Crude Inventory Crash In Years
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Balloon-On-Largest-Single-Week-Crude-Inventory-Crash-In-Years.html

Crude -15.4 million vs. -900,000 expected :wowYou must really be hurt by that.

[SnakeBoy]

You must really be hurt by that.

Pleased. I want the Fed to keep raising interest rates.

[ChumpDumper]

Pleased. I want the Fed to keep raising interest rates.

So the only thing's Biden has hurt are your tender feelings.:lol

[Spurminator]

Conservatives love oil companies except when they're making money

[Winehole23]

Realtors gripping

1711440707238392247

[Winehole23]

Windfall for banks, good times not shared with depositors.

1713544561824256414

[Thread]

Windfall for banks, good times not shared with depositors.

1713544561824256414

Biden is a raw fuck.

[Winehole23]

1715045140119605478

[Winehole23]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did 100 basic points in November. 30 year mortgage rates are about to blow through 7% with no end in sight. Housing market is gonna take a big dump in 2023.Crash in transactions but not in price, so far.


Huge Collapse in New Home Sales on Top of Steep Negative Revisions

New home sales revisions yesterday were exceptional. I created a new chart to show the changes.

https://149905391.v2.pressablecdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/New-Home-Sales-as-Reported-and-Revised-2023-10-1-1024x684.png
Case-Shiller Home Price Index National and Top 10
https://149905391.v2.pressablecdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Case-Shiller-Home-Price-Index-National-and-Top-10-2023-09-1024x635.png

Not every city is at record highs although the national and 10-city indexes are. However, the price in all 10 cities increased for the fifth straight month.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/home-prices-hit-a-new-record-high-according-to-case-shiller-thank-the-fed/


Through massive and totally unwarranted QE, foolishly hoping to create more inflation, the Fed suppressed interest rates to record lows and mortgage rates followed.

Anyone with an an existing mortgage could and did refinance at 3.00 percent or below.This increased “affordability” and we now have two classes of people courtesy of the Fed: winners and losers (existing home owners who refinanced low and those who want to buy).
https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-the-fed-destroyed-the-housing-market-and-created-inflation-in-pictures/

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GADApBtaEAAVPNE?format=jpg&name=large

[Winehole23]

1729660626576834966

[Winehole23]

CPI=/=cost of living.

Prices are sticky. When the rate of inflation drops retail prices rarely do. And ending the child tax credit was a boneheaded political mistake.

https://x.com/stephensemler/status/1731735118950137962?s=20

1731735118950137962

[Thread]

CPI=/=cost of living.

Prices are sticky. When the rate of inflation drops retail prices rarely do. And ending the child tax credit was a boneheaded political mistake.

https://x.com/stephensemler/status/1731735118950137962?s=20

1731735118950137962

The money were giving the Nazi's in Ukraine, who grift it on-the-spot had to come from somewhere, fart-face.

It's only a boneheaded mistake to American children.

[Ef-man]

CPI=/=cost of living.

Prices are sticky. When the rate of inflation drops retail prices rarely do. And ending the child tax credit was a boneheaded political mistake.

https://x.com/stephensemler/status/1731735118950137962?s=20

1731735118950137962

Being sarcastic here, but maybe Manchin was onto something when he said child credits on drugs as overdose rates keep going up.

There is plenty of disposable income for drugs.


https://nida.nih.gov/sites/default/files/images/cj22-graph.jpg

[Fat Brandon Bass]

Cock size grew to 10 inches L by 8 inches in girth, still working on my sex game...wife only cums 25 times per session, trying to get up to 30.

Fitness wise, I'm 3% bodyfat and my bench/squat/deadlift numbers are 525/1055/2465...I know, I know...4000 combined numbers could be way better but I just started lifting for the first time ever last week.

Frame wise I'm doing solid. My wife asked me the other day where we should go out to dinner...I looked her straight in the eye and said "Brazil Steakhouse b1tch! I'm f*cking paying! End of story." I maintained frame, and asserted my alpha dominance pretty well. However, in the bedroom later I only made her orgasm 30 times. Need to re-read Models by Mark Mansen again and really internalize everything.

Speaking of, for the first time in the last 10 years my wife and I were not the hottest couple at the restaurant. We were only 2nd hottest. Need to go on a "Piss Only" diet for the next 2 weeks while binge watching David Goggins videos as self-punishment.

Financially, I'm doing ok but could be better. Bought a few properties in Aspen, Jupiter Island, Hawaii, Malvdives, and Fiji but really missed a big one in Sydney, Australia. That's ok because I still made <$50k in crypto last week. Started five businesses last month and sold them all for a $10 million profit each.

I still need to work on being the most 'alpha male' in my neighborhood though. I got up at 2:30 a.m. yesterday for my daily 20 mile run...but noticed somebody else was up at 2:25 a.m. I could really sense that he was out-alpha'ing me judging by the pheromone scent he was exuding from his pores. That's ok, I mean mugged him and he drooped his shoulders in shame. I remember reading about the powers of the Dark Triad in 48 Laws of Power, I would say I'm getting better at using them effectively after that encounter.

[Winehole23]

Being sarcastic here, but maybe Manchin was onto something when he said child credits on drugs as overdose rates keep going up.

There is plenty of disposable income for drugs.


https://nida.nih.gov/sites/default/files/images/cj22-graph.jpgI see what you mean, this one lines up perfect too.

https://wp-assets.futurism.com/2015/11/1WZ6h1.png

[Mark Celibate]

Nope , retired boomer here. No sign of a recession at all. Just sold my house in Austin for $1.5 million to a California couple. Was only $300k back in 2005 when we bought...now me and the wife moved to Asheville, NC and were able to buy a $700k house in cash from the sale. Have you fagg0ts tried not being poor yet and making smarter financial decisions?

[Ef-man]

Nope , retired boomer here. No sign of a recession at all. Just sold my house in Austin for $1.5 million to a California couple. Was only $300k back in 2005 when we bought...now me and the wife moved to Asheville, NC and were able to buy a $700k house in cash from the sale. Have you fagg0ts tried not being poor yet and making smarter financial decisions?

Maybe you can help out Snaks as he is always complaining about rising fuel prices. Gift him a bus pass or two.

[Mark Celibate]

Maybe you can help out Snaks as he is always complaining about rising fuel prices. Gift him a bus pass or two.

tell him we all gotta make sacrifices bud, even if that means going without your daily avocado toast and starbucks pumpkin latte huhuhuhhuehuehue

[Winehole23]

May not be long before conservatives start complaining about deflation and slower growth.

Latest job report came in weak, if the trend continues, that's probably a sign rate hikes are starting to bite.


1730467183590068706

[Winehole23]

The plane's not on the runway yet, hope the Fed hasn't overshot.

Looks like inflation worriers are about to become recession worriers.

1738198913394389498

[CosmicCowboy]

CPI=/=cost of living.

Prices are sticky. When the rate of inflation drops retail prices rarely do. And ending the child tax credit was a boneheaded political mistake.

You aren't very good at math, are you? When the "rate of inflation slows" it still means prices are going UP

When you are gaining weight this year but not as fast as you were gaining weight last year it still means you are fatter, not skinnier.

[Winehole23]

You aren't very good at math, are you? When the "rate of inflation slows" it still means prices are going UP

When you are gaining weight this year but not as fast as you were gaining weight last year it still means you are fatter, not skinnier.I think you missed my point, which is that inflation measures the rate of price changes, not the cost of living. I didn't say that inflation is zero or imply it.

Not sure what your gripe is, maybe it's just a grudge.

[CosmicCowboy]

I think you missed my point, which is that inflation measures the rate of price change, not the cost of living. I didn't say that inflation is zero or imply it.

You certainly did. Why would you expect retail prices to drop if inflation is still positive?

[Winehole23]

You certainly did. Why would you expect retail prices to drop if inflation is still positive?I didn't, I was pointing out that they don't. My point in doing so was to emphasize that inflation figures all by themselves don't give us a good picture of the impact on ordinary people -- the cost of living. I know you're aching for me to be wrong about something, but you really did miss my point.

[Blake]

You certainly did. Why would you expect retail prices to drop if inflation is still positive?

I think the point is that once an item goes up in price, it stays up.

[Winehole23]

I think the point is that once an item goes up in price, it stays up.That too. Prices are a one way rachet, for the most part.

[Thread]

You aren't very good at math, are you? When the "rate of inflation slows" it still means prices are going UP

When you are gaining weight this year but not as fast as you were gaining weight last year it still means you are fatter, not skinnier.

CC

[Thread]

I didn't, I was pointing out that they don't. My point in doing so was to emphasize that inflation figures all by themselves don't give us a good picture of the impact on ordinary people -- the cost of living. I know you're aching for me to be wrong about something, but you really did miss my point.

...you you've been wrong once, about 3 months ago. I marked it.

[CosmicCowboy]

That too. Prices are a one way rachet, for the most part.

Why would you expect them to go down when cost and inflation didn't go down?

[Thread]

Why would you expect them to go down when cost and inflation didn't go down?

CC

[Blake]

Why would you expect them to go down when cost and inflation didn't go down?

But cost does go down at times.

[Winehole23]

Why would you expect them to go down when cost and inflation didn't go down?I don't expect them to go down, I was pointing out that falling inflation doesn't mean falling prices, and therefore does not reduce the cost of living. I think we're in agreement here, CC.

(If you look upstream, commodity deflation is already happening, fwiw.)

[Thread]

I don't expect them to go down, I was pointing out that falling inflation doesn't mean falling prices, and therefore does not reduce the cost of living. I think we're in agreement here, CC.

(If you look upstream, commodity deflation is already happening, fwiw.)

You GD rights you don't, now that CC put you on-the-spot. Just be grateful CC is cleaning your clock.

tee, hee.

[Thread]

But cost does go down at times.

That's all you got, ya little pissant?

LMFAO!!!

[CosmicCowboy]

But cost does go down at times.

Only on commodities where supply/demand determine price and retail prices do tend to track wholesale cost.

[Blake]

Only on commodities where supply/demand determine price and retail prices do tend to track wholesale cost.

You woke up today trying to find something to argue about, huh

[CosmicCowboy]

General inflation is still cumulative.

2000-1.2%
2001-4.7%
2002-8.0%
2003-3.1%?

meaning inflation has risen 17% since 2000

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Heavily consolidated industries don't move their price. Commodities like oil where you have thousands of domestic producers alone, it will actually move around.

[CosmicCowboy]

You woke up today trying to find something to argue about, huh

pot/kettle dumbass. Who the fuck invited you in this thread?

[Thread]

pot/kettle dumbass. Who the fuck invited you in this thread?

Bust his hole, CC. You caught 'em this morn, and caught 'em good.

CC

[Thread]

Heavily consolidated industries don't move their price. Commodities like oil where you have thousands of domestic producers alone, it will actually move around.

Ya think, ya flat-headed son of a gun, you.

Trump: $2 a gallon.
Biden: $5 a gallon.

"But it's a good thing." - Blake

[Thread]

General inflation is still cumulative.

2000-1.2%
2001-4.7%
2002-8.0%
2003-3.1%?

meaning inflation has risen 17% since 2000

Saying it outright like that, CC, 72 hours before Xmas?

[Thread]

You woke up today trying to find something to argue about, huh

No, he woke up this morning and blasted hair all over these walls.

"Now shut up, Bernie, just shut up."

[CosmicCowboy]

General inflation is still cumulative.

2000-1.2%
2001-4.7%
2002-8.0%
2003-3.1%?

meaning inflation has risen 17% since 2000

And you guys whine about the capital gains tax rates being too low...

Say you made a $100,000 investment in 2000 and the value increased at the rate of inflation (to $117,000) in 2003 and you sold it.

The IRS shows a $17,000 "profit" they tax at 20%. Tax would be $3400.00.

So in reality you lost $3400 of purchasing power on your three year investment.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

:lol let it out CC.

[Blake]

pot/kettle dumbass. Who the fuck invited you in this thread?

You did when you bumped a two week old post to the top of the forum.

[CosmicCowboy]

You did when you bumped a two week old post to the top of the forum.

Your perpetual never ending butthurt over me laughing at your pussy ass whining in here about being cucked is the real reason you can't resist trying to argue with me like a moth to a flame. You brought that shit on yourself. whine, whine, whine.

[ChumpDumper]

General inflation is still cumulative.

2000-1.2%
2001-4.7%
2002-8.0%
2003-3.1%?

meaning inflation has risen 17% since 2000

What are you wanting to happen about it?

[CosmicCowboy]

What are you wanting to happen about it?

What I want doesn't really matter. I just accept reality.

[ChumpDumper]

What I want doesn't really matter. I just accept reality.

We all have. What is being argued?

[CosmicCowboy]

We all have. What is being argued?

I don't know, Chump. what are you wanting to argue about?

[Thread]

We all have. What is being argued?

...
Trump: $2 a gallon gas.
Biden: "$5 a gallon gas is a good thing."

[ChumpDumper]

I don't know, Chump.
:tu

[Thread]

I don't know, Chump. what are you wanting to argue about?

He's testing ya, CC, to see if he can get into you and get a V. Otherwise, he'll drift away until a ripe one surfaces.

Let's see what he does.

Dumps, sweetheart, let's go, daddy.

[CosmicCowboy]

:tu

I know I don't expect prices to go down when inflation "slows" to 3.2% unlike some others in this forum, apparently.

[ChumpDumper]

I know I don't expect prices to go down when inflation "slows" to 3.2% unlike some others in this forum, apparently.

That seems to have been cleared up and no one expects it.

Anything else?

[Thread]

I know I don't expect prices to go down when inflation "slows" to 3.2% unlike some others in this forum, apparently.

Careful, Dumper, he's manipulatin' ya into a dead fall.

[Winehole23]

comes in spoiling for a fight, refuses to accept agreement, pisses on Blake, then turtles when asked to explain the point of his own post.

typically strong stuff.

[Thread]

comes in spoiling for a fight, refuses to accept agreement, pisses on Blake, then turtles when asked to explain the point of his own post.

typically strong stuff.

Here comes Winester; trying to re-establish himself in the battle after getting his shit racked an hour ago.

Ya chickenshit, you.

[CosmicCowboy]

comes in spoiling for a fight, refuses to accept agreement, pisses on Blake, then turtles when asked to explain the point of his own post.

typically strong stuff.


CPI=/=cost of living.

Prices are sticky. When the rate of inflation drops retail prices rarely do.



Sorry, they were your words.

Cleanup on aisle three was still a mess.

[Winehole23]

Sorry, they were your words.

Cleanup on aisle three was still a mess.Sorry you didn't understand my words, looks like you've got your dick caught in a crack.

[Thread]

Sorry, they were your words.

Cleanup on aisle three was still a mess.

Winester gettin' racked. It's my Xmas present, courtesy of CC.

CC

[Blake]

Your perpetual never ending butthurt over me laughing at your pussy ass whining in here about being cucked is the real reason you can't resist trying to argue with me like a moth to a flame. You brought that shit on yourself. whine, whine, whine.

You're an easy mark. Lighten up, geezer

[Thread]

You're an easy mark. Lighten up, geezer

He got ya, Blake.

[Blake]

Minutes Ago
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I'm sure it was a great post

[Thread]

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He got ya, Blake.

[scott]

Did that recession ever hit? Or is this like the hyper-inflation thread and I just have to keep checking back every couple of years?

[pgardn]

J
Did that recession ever hit? Or is this like the hyper-inflation thread and I just have to keep checking back every couple of years?

At this point if you are wealthy and merely just hung onto index funds you must be very very pleased.
Low cost flat out easy. Rich people in the US SHOULD be doing fine or they are dullards.
Or merely over thinking that they know what they are doing. Which is very common Imo. Thinking they know a lot more than they do. Hubris with wealth and not realizing the path was just good fortune in many cases. Being born into the right family in the right country and they are just blind. Seems people would rather put success into a category of ONLY working hard, they completely whiff on good fortune playing a huge role in their puffed sense of control and intellect.

[Winehole23]

Did that recession ever hit? Or is this like the hyper-inflation thread and I just have to keep checking back every couple of years?If CC keeps predicting the same thing long enough, eventually he could turn out to be right.

CC says he never predicted hyperinflation, though. Just inflation. Bold.

[ElNono]

General inflation is still cumulative.

2000-1.2%
2001-4.7%
2002-8.0%
2003-3.1%?

meaning inflation has risen 17% since 2000

When was inflation not like this?

[CosmicCowboy]

And Whinehole is still waiting for the prices to drop since inflation slowed a little.

And Whinehole is correct. I never predicted hyperinflation, but multi trillion dollar deficits give the fed very few options.

[ElNono]

The goal is low inflation to keep money moving. It’s always been like that. We want to avoid deflation or high inflation.

[ElNono]

And reduced inflation can lead to lower prices. Not always, but it’s dependent on the cost coming down at a higher rate than inflation and having a true competitive market. We see that all the time in markets like electronics for example.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Market forces that would lower prices have been acting. You see it in fuel prices who actually react to said market forces. In consolidated markets, firms do not give a shit beyond setting the highest price they can.

[Thread]

The goal is low inflation to keep money moving. It’s always been like that. We want to avoid deflation or high inflation.

We had it dicked at $2 gallon gas with Trump, a-hole.

[Thread]

Market forces that would lower prices have been acting. You see it in fuel prices who actually react to said market forces. In consolidated markets, firms do not give a shit beyond setting the highest price they can.

Yep, Biden brought it with him at $6 a gallon gas, down now to $4 a gallon gas. A box of Nabisco Graham Crackers were $2.88 for the last 20 years till Biden...Now? $4.39 a box over at the Wal-Mart. I can't even imagine what that same box would cost at Big Shot Safeway. Probably over $5 a box.

[Thread]

When was inflation not like this?

When Trump made President and gas was $2 a gallon gas. But you wouldn't have it and commenced to trying blow him up, cut his head off and shoot him to death. RESULT: He survived SO FAR, but we're still at $4 a gallon gas.

[Winehole23]

And Whinehole is still waiting for the prices to drop since inflation slowed a little.It's odd you're stuck on this inference when I said pretty much the exact opposite. The purchasing power of the USD goes down over time (not continuously, but that's the long term trend) and prices go up (again, not continuously and uniformly, some things are inherently more volatile in price, others might go down in price due to technical improvements and market efficiencies, or because commodity cost and inflation are decreasing at the same time, like El Nono and Fuzzy just pointed out.)

[Winehole23]

TVs are a good example of the latter.

[FrostKing]

Canada in shambles. Trudeau wow. From my understanding was elected on the back of a Marijuana bill and now there have been drastic initiatives passed. Overall the past 20 years, is there a more head scratching 2-time leader in the West?

[Winehole23]

Canada in shambles. Trudeau wow. From my understanding was elected on the back of a Marijuana bill and now there have been drastic initiatives passed. Overall the past 20 years, is there a more head scratching 2-time leader in the West?This post in this thread is a head scratcher. How does it relate to the topic?

[CosmicCowboy]

TVs are a good example of the latter.

We have been blessed with low consumer product prices (electronics, clothes, etc) for years as Asia converted from an agrarian society to an industrial society. Those work forces are no longer working 16 hour days for pennies. Couple that with the political tensions with China that potentially can effect commerce in the future and this advantage will more than likely diminish in the future.

[Winehole23]

We have been blessed with low consumer product prices (electronics, clothes, etc) for years as Asia converted from an agrarian society to an industrial society. Those work forces are no longer working 16 hour days for pennies. Couple that with the political tensions with China that potentially can effect commerce in the future and this advantage will more than likely diminish in the future."Technological progress and market efficiencies"

[Winehole23]

CC is so spoiling for a fight that he doesn't notice when people more or less agree. It's boring and somewhat obtuse to assume that perceived antagonists always disagree, and are always wrong.

Finding dispute with opponents is easy, finding agreement takes discernment and is more interesting, pretty much always, than picking a quarrel.

[Thread]

CC is so spoiling for a fight that he doesn't notice when people more or less agree. It's boring and somewhat obtuse to assume that perceived antagonists always disagree, and are always wrong.

Finding dispute is easy, finding agreement takes discernment and is more interesting, pretty much always, than picking a quarrel.

He built a shoe store in Dumper's dumper, by God, Winster. He probably ain't been laid in a coon's age and is stove up.

[Thread]

We have been blessed with low consumer product prices (electronics, clothes, etc) for years as Asia converted from an agrarian society to an industrial society. Those work forces are no longer working 16 hour days for pennies. Couple that with the political tensions with China that potentially can effect commerce in the future and this advantage will more than likely diminish in the future.


I don't like the sound of this, CC. Take it back and say you were wrong and everything is going to be okay.

[Winehole23]

Me pointing out that a falling rate of inflation does not necessarily square with the reality of a rising cost of living for most folks isn't me worshipping Brandon, it's me pointing out that short term macroeconomic statistical trends do not necessarily square with lived experience. I thought CC would be open to that.

Silly me.

[CosmicCowboy]

Me pointing out that a falling rate of inflation does not necessarily square with the reality of a rising cost of living for most folks isn't me worshipping Brandon, it's me pointing out that short term macroeconomic statistical trends do not necessarily square with lived experience. I thought CC would be open to that.

Silly me.

Still trying to clean up on aisle three. LOL

[ChumpDumper]

CC is so spoiling for a fight that he doesn't notice when people more or less agree. It's boring and somewhat obtuse to assume that perceived antagonists always disagree, and are always wrong.

Finding dispute with opponents is easy, finding agreement takes discernment and is more interesting, pretty much always, than picking a quarrel.

I disagree.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

CC is so spoiling for a fight that he doesn't notice when people more or less agree. It's boring and somewhat obtuse to assume that perceived antagonists always disagree, and are always wrong.

Finding dispute with opponents is easy, finding agreement takes discernment and is more interesting, pretty much always, than picking a quarrel.

The convenient awareness is evident.

[pgardn]

I disagree.

imo disputes on this site breakdown into personal insults which becomes incredibly boring.
Agreement might seem easy because the groupthink is easy. But agreements that are complex and have repercussions beyond just agreeing; like agreements that actual work through complex problem via a solution are very difficult. If all of the people agree on a plan that fails… that’s not what happens on this site. No firing, resignation or loss of status as a problem solver on this site. In many endeavors failing means drastic consequences for a group.


Personally, I would never even try to build a fence using a group of posters from this site.

[Thread]

imo disputes on this site breakdown into personal insults which becomes incredibly boring.
Agreement might seem easy because the groupthink is easy. But agreements that are complex and have repercussions beyond just agreeing; like agreements that actual work through complex problem via a solution are very difficult. If all of the people agree on a plan that fails… that’s not what happens on this site. No firing, resignation or loss of status as a problem solver on this site. In many endeavors failing means drastic consequences for a group.


Personally, I would never even try to build a fence using a group of posters from this site.

.........thus...I'm livin' still.

[Winehole23]

Still trying to clean up on aisle three. LOLfaulty inference. you got me wrong from the get go.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

This is cute.

CC comes in trying to discuss inflation. Blake immediately antagonizes him claiming he is the one that wants to start a fight. CC of course takes the bait and so in comes wine to reaffirm the gaslighting.

Now that is has devolved the clique is now trying the con of it is all CC and his misunderstandings when they have shit on him from the start. Blake is even liking pg's levity post.

[Thread]

This is cute.

CC comes in trying to discuss inflation. Blake immediately antagonizes him claiming he is the one that wants to start a fight. CC of course takes the bait and so in comes wine to reaffirm the gaslighting.

Now that is has devolved the clique is now trying the con of it is all CC and his misunderstandings when they have shit on him from the start. Blake is even liking pg's levity post.

Lumps, testifying.

Lumps

[FuzzyLumpkins]

imo disputes on this site breakdown into personal insults which becomes incredibly boring.
Agreement might seem easy because the groupthink is easy. But agreements that are complex and have repercussions beyond just agreeing; like agreements that actual work through complex problem via a solution are very difficult. If all of the people agree on a plan that fails… that’s not what happens on this site. No firing, resignation or loss of status as a problem solver on this site. In many endeavors failing means drastic consequences for a group.


Personally, I would never even try to build a fence using a group of posters from this site.

I was going to say that you could get wine, blake, and chump to work together quite well. Then I thought about what would happen if you disagreed with how something as to be done.

[Thread]

I was going to say that you could get wine, blake, and chump to work together quite well. Then I thought about what would happen if you disagreed with how something as to be done.


What are you going to do, peeg, just stand there and bleed? That's what I thought.

[Blake]

This is cute.

CC comes in trying to discuss inflation.

False premise

[Blake]

This is cute.

CC comes in trying to discuss inflation. Blake immediately antagonizes him claiming he is the one that wants to start a fight. CC of course takes the bait and so in comes wine to reaffirm the gaslighting.

Now that is has devolved the clique is now trying the con of it is all CC and his misunderstandings when they have shit on him from the start. Blake is even liking pg's levity post.

I like the last sentence. Not really an option to like parts of a post.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Only on commodities where supply/demand determine price and retail prices do tend to track wholesale cost.

Sure seems to be about inflation.


You woke up today trying to find something to argue about, huh

Sure seems like you are trying to bait him into a fight.

[Blake]

Sure seems to be about inflation.



Sure seems like you are trying to bait him into a fight.

Why are you starting at that post instead of where he actually came in?

Sure seems like you're trying to bait me into a fight

[Blake]

Now talk about my posting style instead of the substance. Go.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Why are you starting at that post instead of where he actually came in?

Sure seems like you're trying to bait me into a fight

Because he was talking about inflation up until that point.

As for substance, Blake, what substance?


You certainly did. Why would you expect retail prices to drop if inflation is still positive?

You ignore the argument and then restate the original premise.


I think the point is that once an item goes up in price, it stays up.

He tries to get you to consider his point anyway restating:


Why would you expect them to go down when cost and inflation didn't go down?

To which you do the nihilist dimwit routine and undermine your previous point of prices always staying high with:


But cost does go down at times.

CC is still trying to get you to consider his point so he goes into more detail with:


Only on commodities where supply/demand determine price and retail prices do tend to track wholesale cost.

I guess you were hoping to get ahead of the horse with that last comment. That is the substance or rather the lack thereof.

[Blake]

Lol disingenuous word wall

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Lol disingenuous word wall

You are big on assertions like Chump and Joey I see. Those are your posts. Show us the substance beyond trolling CC.

[HemisfairArena]

I was going to say that you could get wine, blake, and chump to work together quite well. Then I thought about what would happen if you disagreed with how something as to be done.

You forgot their ring leader nono,,,,they couldnt do a thing without their lead parrot,,,,

[Blake]

You forgot their ring leader nono,,,,they couldnt do a thing without their lead parrot,,,,

Lol clarifying who makes your ass hurt the most.

[Blake]

You are big on assertions like Chump and Joey I see. Those are your posts. Show us the substance beyond trolling CC.

Lol just two posts up you quoted me not trolling. You're stupid or disingenuous or both

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Lol just two posts up you quoted me not trolling. You're stupid or disingenuous or both

:lol you mad.

I believe insipid is how I would describe your "not trolling" interactions.

You agree that there was no substance at least.

[Blake]

:lol you mad.

I believe insipid is how I would describe your "not trolling" interactions.

You agree that there was no substance at least.

I said "two posts up you quoted me not trolling." How do you take that as me agreeing there was no substance?

You're weird. You need a therapist.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I said "two posts up you quoted me not trolling." How do you take that as me agreeing there was no substance?

You're weird. You need a therapist.

I believe insipid is how I would describe your "not trolling" interactions. Reading is fundamental.

"Not trolling" does not imply substance.

[Blake]

I believe insipid is how I would describe your "not trolling" interactions. Reading is fundamental.

"Not trolling" does not imply substance.

The post was on topic in response to his post. What's your definition of "substance"?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The post was on topic in response to his post. What's your definition of "substance"?

Something you do not directly contradict in the next response would be a start. Thus insipid.

[Blake]

Something you do not directly contradict in the next response would be a start. Thus insipid.

Then why aren't you accusing CC of trolling?

[Blake]

Lol now the crickets

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Lol now the crickets

Another one with the self important questions.

His first response was to call you a hypocrite. The difference is he wanted to argue about inflation whereas you just wanted to make him mad and derail.

[Winehole23]

"CC is being attacked unfairly"

[FuzzyLumpkins]

"CC is being attacked unfairly"

He thought he had a good point and wanted to challenge you, buttercup. Blake devolved it and you both blamed him for it.

It's horseshit.

[Blake]

Another one with the self important questions.

His first response was to call you a hypocrite. The difference is he wanted to argue about inflation whereas you just wanted to make him mad and derail.

His first response was to say Winehole can't add. The difference is that calling him a troll too undermines your story

[Winehole23]

He thought he had a good point and wanted to challenge you, buttercup. Blake devolved it and you both blamed him for it.

It's horseshit.CC wanted to challenge me, but his inference from what I said was faulty -- we were already substantially in agreement. He goofed, and there's not much more to say about it.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

CC wanted to challenge me, but his inference from what I said was faulty -- we were already substantially in agreement. He goofed, and there's not much more to say about it.

That is fine. Fine, you would have won the argument but that is not the point here. Or are you saying that winning an argument justifies the insipid devolution?

[ChumpDumper]

That is fine. Fine, you would have won the argument but that is not the point here. Or are you saying that winning an argument justifies the insipid devolution?

You should start a thread about it.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

His first response was to say Winehole can't add. The difference is that calling him a troll too undermines your story

Is that what triggered the Quixote response. Fair maiden was besmirched.

[Winehole23]

That is fine. Fine, you would have won the argument but that is not the point here. Or are you saying that winning an argument justifies the insipid devolution?Not sure exactly what "insipid devolution" is referring to, but a lot of the the threads you're acticve in seem to end up that way.

As far as I'm aware, no guardrails exist for shitposting, so it's beside the point to ask whether the shitposting was warranted. It's either present or absent, and you don't seem exactly allergic to it, tbh.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Not sure exactly what "insipid devolution" is referring to, but a lot of the the threads you're acticve in seem to end up that way.

As far as I'm aware, no guardrails exist for shitposting, so it's beside the point to ask whether the shitposting was warranted. It's either present or absent, and you don't seem exactly allergic to it, tbh.

Well, when people intentionally give contradictory statement I find it insipid. Perhaps you find that vigorous discourse but as you like to say YMMV.

[CosmicCowboy]

CC wanted to challenge me, but his inference from what I said was faulty -- we were already substantially in agreement. He goofed, and there's not much more to say about it.

LOL we somewhat agreed after you backtracked and attempted cleanup. But we agree now. Prices don't go down just because inflation goes down a little. Thank for getting my point.

[Winehole23]

LOL we somewhat agreed after you backtracked and attempted cleanup. But we agree now. Prices don't go down just because inflation goes down a little. Thank for getting my point.I never said prices go down because inflation goes down a little. I pointed out that they don't.

I honestly don't know how you twisted yourself into a pretzel over that.

[CosmicCowboy]

I never said prices go down because inflation goes down a little. I pointed out that they don't.

I honestly don't know how you twisted yourself into a pretzel over that.

Stated as a whine that prices don't go down.

It's OK Whinehole. we agree now.

[Winehole23]

Stated as a whine that prices don't go down.

It's OK Whinehole. we agree now.we agreed from the beginning, it took you awhile to come around, for some reason.

[CosmicCowboy]

we agreed from the beginning, it took you awhile to come around, for some reason.

:lmao still arguing. You just can't help yourself.

[Winehole23]

*yawns

[Blake]

Is that what triggered the Quixote response. Fair maiden was besmirched.

Oh I see, it depends who posts it.

[Winehole23]

Are tariffs inflationary?

As for trickle down theory, that's totally faith based. The empirical evidence isn't there.

Republicans piss on your head and tell you it's raining.

1749445495045410889

1750263185645424780

[CosmicCowboy]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=&]Are tariffs inflationary?

As for trickle down theory, that's totally faith based. The empirical evidence isn't there.

Republicans piss on your head and tell you it's raining.



Just like calling Biden's corporate welfare "build from the bottom up and the middle out"

[Blake]

Just like calling Biden's corporate welfare "build from the bottom up and the middle out"

Both sides guy in the house

[CosmicCowboy]

Both sides guy in the house

forum cuck in the house

[boutons_deux]

A recent study claim that fully 50% of the inflation last year or earlier was due to greedflation

The capitalizt oligarchy hiding behind b******* like supply chain problems and the pandemic smoke screen to raise their prices way above what their cost were

[CosmicCowboy]

Doing health insurance renewals for my company. I pay 100% of employee and family premiums. Increase this year is 40% more for a comparable plan. That is shopped to all rhe major providers. Humana is completely leaving the business health insurance market nationwide because it almost broke them. New (one) family premium is $36,,000 a year.

[scott]

Doing health insurance renewals for my company. I pay 100% of employee and family premiums. Increase this year is 40% more for a comparable plan. That is shopped to all rhe major providers. Humana is completely leaving the business health insurance market nationwide because it almost broke them. New (one) family premium is $36,,000 a year.

The fact you live in Texas is a big part of this. Seeing no such increases in HI or CA where I cover folks these days (health insurance is surprisingly inexpensive in HI). Both states cheaper than what it used to cost me to cover folks in TX. Family plan in HI and CA cost about 1/3 of what you are quoting above.

[Thread]

Doing health insurance renewals for my company. I pay 100% of employee and family premiums. Increase this year is 40% more for a comparable plan. That is shopped to all rhe major providers. Humana is completely leaving the business health insurance market nationwide because it almost broke them. New (one) family premium is $36,,000 a year.

Yet, the Nazi's in Ukraine getting it for 0 thru the U.S.A..

The Holocaust, my ass.

[Blake]

forum cuck in the house

Forever red assed

[CosmicCowboy]

Forever red assed

Glad you finally admitted it. :lol

[ChumpDumper]

Doing health insurance renewals for my company. I pay 100% of employee and family premiums. Increase this year is 40% more for a comparable plan. That is shopped to all rhe major providers. Humana is completely leaving the business health insurance market nationwide because it almost broke them. New (one) family premium is $36,,000 a year.Maybe there's a better way.

[boutons_deux]

Maybe there's a better way.

never in USA

the capitalist oligarchy has rigged the economy, has corrupted the government and tax laws, so that the capitalist oligarchy is unchallengeable, impregnable,

as with AGW, America is in full decline that is Unstoppable, right into one party fascism

[Thread]

never in USA

the capitalist oligarchy has rigged the economy, has corrupted the government and tax laws, so that the capitalist oligarchy is unchallengeable, impregnable,

as with AGW, America is in full decline that is Unstoppable, right into one party fascism

Pish & tosh, kids. We up and gave it to the Nazi's in Ukraine years ago...just-like-that.

It's like anything else:::They that have it, no matter how much of it they have grudge it to those who don't have it, no matter how bad (those) need it.

It's human/American style.

[Winehole23]

Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8% price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Strikingly, over half of this increase (53.9%) can be attributed to fatter profit margins, with labor costs contributing less than 8% of this increase. This is not normal. From 1979 to 2019, profits only contributed about 11% to price growth and labor costs over 60%, as shown in Figure A below. Nonlabor inputs—a decent indicator for supply-chain snarls—are also driving up prices more than usual in the current economic recovery.https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/

[Blake]

Glad you finally admitted it. :lol

I call you red assed in almost every thread you start. You know this

[Ef-man]

Maybe there's a better way.

He will keep complaining about rising costs as he still remembers when he paid $0.5 a gallon for gasoline.

[Thread]

He will keep complaining about rising costs as he still remembers when he paid $0.5 a gallon for gasoline.

I remember .17 cents a gallon. Then we let The Shah fall and it ain't been right ever since.

[spurraider21]

may end up being a moot point in a couple of days, but mind is kind of racing...

just learned on monday that my wife matched into a psychiatry residency (woo!). on friday morning we will find out where. it may keep us where we are in virginia, it may take us elsewhere (including texas).

ultimately, at the end of the 4 year residency, we fully intend to move back to the los angeles area. none of the residency options include the LA area, so we may be in a position where we have to move in a few months to wherever her residency is, and then will be moving yet again 4 years from now to get back to LA (its not because i necessarily love LA that much... i think the city is cool but not worth the price tag, but literally all our family/friends are here and i want my kids to grow up around their grandparents, cousins, etc)

so im grappling w/ the question of what to do re: housing if we do have to move. i currently own our home in virginia and have a cozy 3.5% interest rate. while residency may well keep us in that home, we have have to move, in which case im not quite sure what to do w/ the house.

some very basic numbers:

- loose estimate says that my rental income should exceed my mortgage/tax obligations by approximately 800-900 per month (before i pay some % to a property management company to take care of the day to day stuff)

- if i sold the house today, by some loose estimates, i should be able to walk away with ~150k, mostly due to increased property value

do i...

a) keep our house, rent it out... and then rent a house in the new city? are the headaches associated with rentals worth it in your experience?

b) sell the house, use much of those proceeds as a down payment to buy a house in the new city (feels less optimal since im pretty sure i wont be living there more than 4 years and will almost certainly have to sell that home when moving to LA later)

c) sell the house, put the proceeds in some other investment mechanism/portfolio (but more liquid than keeping it in the form of a house which may be vulnerable to price swings, recession, etc) and just rent a house for 4 years at which point i'd be making a more permanent relocation to LA


i know i shouldnt be fretting too much until we find out where residency is (in 2 days lol), but cant help myself :lol. am planning to sit down w/ an advisor, but wouldnt mind getting 2c from others in the meantime, particularly those like CosmicCowboy (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=207) who seem to have some solid financial experience/knowledge. less so somebody like hater who will tell me to sell every earthly possession and just put it all in bitcoin

[Thread]

may end up being a moot point in a couple of days, but mind is kind of racing...

just learned on monday that my wife matched into a psychiatry residency (woo!). on friday morning we will find out where. it may keep us where we are in virginia, it may take us elsewhere (including texas).

ultimately, at the end of the 4 year residency, we fully intend to move back to the los angeles area. none of the residency options include the LA area, so we may be in a position where we have to move in a few months to wherever her residency is, and then will be moving yet again 4 years from now to get back to LA (its not because i necessarily love LA that much... i think the city is cool but not worth the price tag, but literally all our family/friends are here and i want my kids to grow up around their grandparents, cousins, etc)

so im grappling w/ the question of what to do re: housing if we do have to move. i currently own our home in virginia and have a cozy 3.5% interest rate. while residency may well keep us in that home, we have have to move, in which case im not quite sure what to do w/ the house.

some very basic numbers:

- loose estimate says that my rental income should exceed my mortgage/tax obligations by approximately 800-900 per month (before i pay some % to a property management company to take care of the day to day stuff)

- if i sold the house today, by some loose estimates, i should be able to walk away with ~150k, mostly due to increased property value

do i...

a) keep our house, rent it out... and then rent a house in the new city? are the headaches associated with rentals worth it in your experience?

b) sell the house, use much of those proceeds as a down payment to buy a house in the new city (feels less optimal since im pretty sure i wont be living there more than 4 years and will almost certainly have to sell that home when moving to LA later)

c) sell the house, put the proceeds in some other investment mechanism/portfolio (but more liquid than keeping it in the form of a house which may be vulnerable to price swings, recession, etc) and just rent a house for 4 years at which point i'd be making a more permanent relocation to LA


i know i shouldnt be fretting too much until we find out where residency is (in 2 days lol), but cant help myself :lol. am planning to sit down w/ an advisor, but wouldnt mind getting 2c from others in the meantime, particularly those like CosmicCowboy (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=207) who seem to have some solid financial experience/knowledge. less so somebody like hater who will tell me to sell every earthly possession and just put it all in bitcoin

Slow down and just saturate in it, 21. Set a dye marker, so in the future when your news ain't happy, when it's sad you'll easily spot this marker and remember.

Congratulations, 21, to you both.

[spurraider21]

Slow down and just saturate in it, 21. Set a dye marker, so in the future when your news ain't happy, when it's sad you'll easily spot this marker and remember.

Congratulations, 21, to you both.
Currently on vacation and don’t have my laptop with the block tool, so I’m actually able to view your posts.

are you still just spamming Putin and Trump pictures or are you back to engaging in conversation?

[Thread]

Currently on vacation and don’t have my laptop with the block tool, so I’m actually able to view your posts.

are you still just spamming Putin and Trump pictures or are you back to engaging in conversation?

After a week's suspension I'm back engaging in conversation.

[ChumpDumper]

Currently on vacation and don’t have my laptop with the block tool, so I’m actually able to view your posts.

are you still just spamming Putin and Trump pictures or are you back to engaging in conversation?

His new spam is saying Trump made president.

[Thread]

His new spam is saying Trump made president.

lmcontrollinao!!!

[CosmicCowboy]

may end up being a moot point in a couple of days, but mind is kind of racing...

just learned on monday that my wife matched into a psychiatry residency (woo!). on friday morning we will find out where. it may keep us where we are in virginia, it may take us elsewhere (including texas).

ultimately, at the end of the 4 year residency, we fully intend to move back to the los angeles area. none of the residency options include the LA area, so we may be in a position where we have to move in a few months to wherever her residency is, and then will be moving yet again 4 years from now to get back to LA (its not because i necessarily love LA that much... i think the city is cool but not worth the price tag, but literally all our family/friends are here and i want my kids to grow up around their grandparents, cousins, etc)

so im grappling w/ the question of what to do re: housing if we do have to move. i currently own our home in virginia and have a cozy 3.5% interest rate. while residency may well keep us in that home, we have have to move, in which case im not quite sure what to do w/ the house.

some very basic numbers:

- loose estimate says that my rental income should exceed my mortgage/tax obligations by approximately 800-900 per month (before i pay some % to a property management company to take care of the day to day stuff)

- if i sold the house today, by some loose estimates, i should be able to walk away with ~150k, mostly due to increased property value

do i...

a) keep our house, rent it out... and then rent a house in the new city? are the headaches associated with rentals worth it in your experience?

b) sell the house, use much of those proceeds as a down payment to buy a house in the new city (feels less optimal since im pretty sure i wont be living there more than 4 years and will almost certainly have to sell that home when moving to LA later)

c) sell the house, put the proceeds in some other investment mechanism/portfolio (but more liquid than keeping it in the form of a house which may be vulnerable to price swings, recession, etc) and just rent a house for 4 years at which point i'd be making a more permanent relocation to LA


i know i shouldnt be fretting too much until we find out where residency is (in 2 days lol), but cant help myself :lol. am planning to sit down w/ an advisor, but wouldnt mind getting 2c from others in the meantime, particularly those like CosmicCowboy (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=207) who seem to have some solid financial experience/knowledge. less so somebody like hater who will tell me to sell every earthly possession and just put it all in bitcoin

Given your scenario I would probably rent or VRBO the existing house for 3-4 years using a reputable property manager. You can continue to build equity nd the house will continue to appreciate while you clear a few hundred a month to apply to rent in your new location. I wouldn't buy another house just for 4 years. Then sell the house when your wife is almost through with her residency and apply it to your new house in LA. My reasoning on renting is that besides closing costs on purchasing, interest is always front loaded on mortgages so you wouldn't really build any equity in just 4 years.

If you are willing to take more risk for higher return then you could sell the house and put the profit into the stock market...selective socks have been performing really well this year. You could potentially get a much higher return on the 150K than holding the house for another 4 years but there is always the possibility of losing principal too...

[spurraider21]

Given your scenario I would probably rent or VRBO the existing house for 3-4 years using a reputable property manager. You can continue to build equity nd the house will continue to appreciate while you clear a few hundred a month to apply to rent in your new location. I wouldn't buy another house just for 4 years. Then sell the house when your wife is almost through with her residency and apply it to your new house in LA. My reasoning on renting is that besides closing costs on purchasing, interest is always front loaded on mortgages so you wouldn't really build any equity in just 4 years.

If you are willing to take more risk for higher return then you could sell the house and put the profit into the stock market...selective socks have been performing really well this year. You could potentially get a much higher return on the 150K than holding the house for another 4 years but there is always the possibility of losing principal too...
Rent my house out + rent in new city was kind of my default position. I’ve heard some horror stories about renting out properties though. By my margin on rent income vs mortgage obligation is pretty good so seems dumb to pass it up. There’s a concern that the value of the property could be subject to all kinds of forces over the next few years if there’s a notable recession or something but i guess same could be said if i put those funds in the market anyway (though realistically I’d have it in some combination of investments including some in safe performing CD/treasuries etc to mitigate risk)

[Thread]

Rent my house out + rent in new city was kind of my default position. I’ve heard some horror stories about renting out properties though. By my margin on rent income vs mortgage obligation is pretty good so seems dumb to pass it up. There’s a concern that the value of the property could be subject to all kinds of forces over the next few years if there’s a notable recession or something but i guess same could be said if i put those funds in the market anyway (though realistically I’d have it in some combination of investments including some in safe performing CD/treasuries etc to mitigate risk)

There's gonna be one of these "notable recession" just as sure as the turnin' of the earth. You can feel it comin'.

[CosmicCowboy]

Rent my house out + rent in new city was kind of my default position. I’ve heard some horror stories about renting out properties though. By my margin on rent income vs mortgage obligation is pretty good so seems dumb to pass it up. There’s a concern that the value of the property could be subject to all kinds of forces over the next few years if there’s a notable recession or something but i guess same could be said if i put those funds in the market anyway (though realistically I’d have it in some combination of investments including some in safe performing CD/treasuries etc to mitigate risk)

Yeah there are horror stories but if you use a reputable property manager they should be able to reasonably qualify the renters based on credit history, past rental referrals, etc.

[CosmicCowboy]

There's gonna be one of these "notable recession" just as sure as the turnin' of the earth. You can feel it comin'.

I don't see it happening any time soon.

[Thread]

I don't see it happening any time soon.

Not this Election year, no. The gov't is working overtime robbing Peter to pay Paul thru 1-20-25, to make certain nothing touches that first Tuesday come November.

Next year. And it's just a hard hunch, but it's going to make that "Great Recession" look like certified bliss.

[Winehole23]

I don't see it happening any time soon.you did last year.

prognostication is a bitch, huh?

[CosmicCowboy]

you did last year.

prognostication is a bitch, huh?

can you show me the quote you are referring to?

[Thread]

can you show me the quote you are referring to?

Winester? You've been called, lovin' man.

[MultiTroll]

There's gonna be one of these "notable recession" just as sure as the turnin' of the earth. You can feel it comin'.
Can you get Depends in bulk?

[MultiTroll]

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-11UUxwn97Vw/Wd0bhj-BW3I/AAAAAAABSQI/68B-O1f7WbAAk76DttXujJcAIXqMB3EDACLcBGAs/s400/trump_daycare_huggies.jpg

[Thread]

Can you get Depends in bulk?

I gotta feeling I'm gonna be compelled to find out before I achieve the oven, eh?

[MultiTroll]

I gotta feeling I'm gonna be compelled to find out before I achieve the oven, eh?
I've been doing some selling in the Phoenix area and I'm not so sure you deserve some consideration if not flat out reparations for your part in the sales.
Very successful.

Will update.

[spurraider21]

Well we’re moving to Vegas :lol

[MultiTroll]

Well we’re moving to Vegas :lol
Rental scene is obscene.

Hope you two are prepared.

[spurraider21]

Rental scene is obscene.

Hope you two are prepared.
just doing some browsing on realtor/zillow and stuff it seems pretty tame. cheaper than most of the other places we had options like Corvallis, OR or even Riverside, CA

seems about the same as where i currently am in charlottesville

being from LA originally, everything feels really cheap by comparison tbh :lol

[MultiTroll]

Check the hood you looking into too.
Vegas crime rate has skyrocketed.

Which is not to say their are not nice hoods.

[spurraider21]

Check the hood you looking into too.
Vegas crime rate has skyrocketed.

Which is not to say their are not nice hoods.
we can be a little picky. this will be our first time being on a dual income (residents dont make great money, but its better than making nothing + paying tuition)

i just dont have a great sense of what parts of the city are the good ones, at least yet.

[Winehole23]

I'm changing retirement plans because of this clusterfuck.how badly does it hurt now?

[Winehole23]

can you show me the quote you are referring to?Sure, it's from a few pages back in this thread.


I was referring to Goldman's 2008 ten billion dollar fuckup. Personally I don't see any way we avoid a recession in 2023 because the Fed will keep raising interest rates until unemployment rises to over 4% and then the lag time of the last increases to take effect will extend it for at least 6 more months.

[ChumpDumper]

I'm changing retirement plans because of this clusterfuck.

Jeez, how badly have you been failing these past three years?

[Thread]

Jeez, how badly have you been failing these past three years?

At least he hasn't been trying to decapitate the President.

[Blake]

Well we’re moving to Vegas :lol

Well look at you getting to watch your team in person every Sunday if you want

[CosmicCowboy]

Sure, it's from a few pages back in this thread.

Yeah, the fed surprised everyone and quit raising in July of 2023 despite employment remaining constant. I wasn't the only one that was surprised. Now they are doing the inverse. Markets were anticipating three or more cuts this year and now it looks like it won't happen.

[Winehole23]

Yeah, the fed surprised everyone and quit raising in July of 2023 despite employment remaining constant. I wasn't the only one that was surprised. Now they are doing the inverse. Markets were anticipating three or more cuts this year and now it looks like it won't happen.
lol same drumbeat of doom, even though you got it completely wrong last year

[Thread]

lol same drumbeat of doom, even though you got it completely wrong last year

...that's how you guys were when Trump made President.

[Ef-man]

lol same drumbeat of doom, even though you got it completely wrong last year

He was correct until he was shown he was wrong, again :lol

[Thread]

He was correct until he was shown he was wrong, again :lol


...that's how you guys were when Trump made President.

[CosmicCowboy]

lol same drumbeat of doom, even though you got it completely wrong last year

When you can predict the future with 100% accuracy I will give a shit what you think, dickhead.