Keldon Johnson’s Defense

[RobinsontoDuncan]

Keldon looks like someone the Spurs could develop into a franchise player at some point in the future, which is very exciting. Coming out of college he was known as a plus defender with a intense and physical playing style. When I watch him play, he looks like he’s always engaged on that end of the floor. Wondering what people think is holding him back?

[Chinook]

He's too slow to play SF, and too small to play PF. Exactly what's been holding him back his whole career. Him "switching positions" is mostly a PR thing (this year's version of Keldon saying he grew two inches over the summer). If the team is seeing improvement, it's because they have a very good defender starting in place of McDermott or Primo now.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

Was Bowen quick as a defender? He never seemed like much of an athlete to me, but somehow he was always so good on that end. I’m just looking for reasons to hold out hope that KJ improve over time.

[exstatic]

Keldon looks like someone the Spurs could develop into a franchise player at some point in the future, which is very exciting. Coming out of college he was known as a plus defender with a intense and physical playing style. When I watch him play, he looks like he’s always engaged on that end of the floor. Wondering what people think is holding him back?

It’s like the NFL. If you’re a DB, but don’t have flexible hips, it doesn’t matter if you run a 4.2 40, you’ll never be a corner. Safety is your position for the duration of your career. Just watch the difference between the way Keldon and Sochan move on defense. Keldon will never be more than an average defender. He can play the position, though, because he is an elite scorer at this point, three levels. He’s even creating now.

[Chinook]

As I've said before, thought, not every stat has Johnson as a poor defender this year. His on-offs are still great, including the defensive ones. It's still way too early to see how the more reliable stats break down. Once we get RAPTOR, RAPM, 82games.com and NBA.com's playtype stats, we'll be able to paint a clearer picture. The dumb stats that aren't on/off don't like Johnson defensively at all right now.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

It’s like the NFL. If you’re a DB, but don’t have flexible hips, it doesn’t matter if you run a 4.2 40, you’ll never be a corner. Safety is your position for the duration of your career. Just watch the difference between the way Keldon and Sochan move on defense. Keldon will never be more than an average defender. He can play the position, though, because he is an elite scorer at this point, three levels. He’s even creating now.

Yeah, I was just thinking to myself that KJ is miles ahead of where Kawhi was on offense at this exact time in his career.

[RC_Drunkford]

like I said my boy who's a Celtics fan compared his game to Paul Pierce. If he can become anything remotely close to Pierce that would be huge

[TD 21]

like I said my boy who's a Celtics fan compared his game to Paul Pierce. If he can become anything remotely close to Pierce that would be huge

Poor comparison because Pierce was a three-level scorer and p-n-r playmaker.

He's not a "franchise player" in the making, but then there's 10ish give or take real ones at a given time. Complimentary star is probably more so the ceiling.

[DPG21920]

Filling the void at PF has been by far the biggest change with regards to unlocking everyone’s defense. Spurs defense as a whole has not been that good but the signs are there and there have been plenty of good stretches.

[Chinook]

Here are Keldon's stats this year compared to fourth-year Pierce:

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=johnske04&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id2=piercpa01&p2yrfrom=2002

The counting stats are close, but the defense is way different. I don't know if people appreciate just how badly Johnson is grading out on that end. He's worse than Lonnie by many measurements. It's hard to square with on-offs as I've mentioned, but it's also very likely the trend of Johnson being a poor defender holds up since that's been his normal as an NBA player. We can hope it turns around though.

[offset formation]

Filling the void at PF has been by far the biggest change with regards to unlocking everyone’s defense. Spurs defense as a whole has not been that good but the signs are there and there have been plenty of good stretches.

Rotations are light year's ahead. And that's 100% due to Sochan's ability to switch unlike having KJ having to cover a 1, 2, quick 3 and tall 4, or 5

[couchman]

KJ as a slightly discounted Paul Pierce is a good comp. Pierce was a better playmaker, usually in terms of drawing more fouls, but KJ can still unlock that part of his game. The D will always be mediocre but if he is surrounded by good defenders he will be fine.

[RC_Drunkford]

Poor comparison because Pierce was a three-level scorer and p-n-r playmaker.

He's not a "franchise player" in the making, but then there's 10ish give or take real ones at a given time. Complimentary star is probably more so the ceiling.

I agree with the last sentence, but as far as his midrange game and PNR playmaking there's still room to improve.

[timvp]

Here are Keldon's stats this year compared to fourth-year Pierce:

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=johnske04&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id2=piercpa01&p2yrfrom=2002

The counting stats are close, but the defense is way different. I don't know if people appreciate just how badly Johnson is grading out on that end. He's worse than Lonnie by many measurements. It's hard to square with on-offs as I've mentioned, but it's also very likely the trend of Johnson being a poor defender holds up since that's been his normal as an NBA player. We can hope it turns around though.

Which stats are you talking about that Keldon is Lonnie-esque? Most defensive advanced stats I've looked at have Keldon as meh and Lonnie as terrible. A quick look at RAPTOR and RPM verify that's generally been the case over the years.

Keldon looks pretty bad in terms of counting stats and primitive metrics like DRtg and DBPM but those numbers are so worthless I don't even know why they're still around.

It's early but Keldon looks a little bit better defensively this year. Not a ton better but he can move better now that he's slimmer.

It's interesting that he came into the league as a supposed defensive ace who would be a role player on offense. It turns out it's his offense that makes him valuable and his defense is what probably will never be anything better than average.

[Chinook]

Which stats are you talking about that Keldon is Lonnie-esque? Most defensive advanced stats I've looked at have Keldon as meh and Lonnie as terrible. A quick look at RAPTOR and RPM verify that's generally been the case over the years.

Keldon looks pretty bad in terms of counting stats and primitive metrics like DRtg and DBPM but those numbers are so worthless I don't even know why they're still around.

It's early but Keldon looks a little bit better defensively this year. Not a ton better but he can move better now that he's slimmer.

It's interesting that he came into the league as a supposed defensive ace who would be a role player on offense. It turns out it's his offense that makes him valuable and his defense is what probably will never be anything better than average.

I wasn't talking about last year. I was talking about the early returns this year. I completely admit the sample size for the more esteemed stats like you mentioned isn't there yet. That's why I wasn't planning on making a thread about it at this point. If the on-offs hold up, then at least some of those stats are going to reflect Johnson's improved defense. But I also think people are too quick to attributing the team's defense to Johnson as much as the team having a guy who can guard whichever forward is most dangerous on any given night.

To me, Johnson has always looked decent from an eye-test perspective. His rookie year had that block on Doncic that's still arguably his signature defensive play. He's have some rugged games at PF against guys like Zion and Davis. There are aspects to defense I don't fully understand how to incorporate into a complete picture. There are folks who seem to play good defense, get a hand in their face and all that, but the ball just seems to go in more often. There are subtle things like letting a player get to certain spots, go in whatever direction, keep their normal cadence, and the stats haven't captured that. But there's also a matter of how much confidence an opposing player has against a defender. I think Zach Collins, for example, is suffering from a lot of players looking at him and assuming he's a scrub and running right into him when they wouldn't do that with Poeltl or even Dieng. That's a bit of a long way to say that I think even if Johnson is moving well and all that at the three, if players respect him at that position might have a measurable effect on how he grades out.

[DAF86]

Was Bowen quick as a defender? He never seemed like much of an athlete to me, but somehow he was always so good on that end. I’m just looking for reasons to hold out hope that KJ improve over time.

Bowen had probably the best lateral movement I have ever seen. Which is exactly Keldon's weakness.

[RC_Drunkford]

It‘s enough for Keldon to be a net neutral on that end. I think that’s realistic

[BackHome]

The thing with Lonnie is he is like a well conditioned fighter he might not beat you with talent but if you don’t have the cardio and the fight in you to play hard he will beat you in the end. He is not terrible his offensive play makes him a net positive but I agree he is not your best player on a serious playoff team but he is to a lesser extent a poor man’s “Robin”. For a late draft pick I am pretty fucking happy with the way he has developed