How We Can Successfully Primary-Out Trump in 2024?

[Millennial_Messiah]

I think it's simple.

The GOP establishment and moderate non-QAnon republicans, which ARE the majority of Republican voters, need to galvanize behind 1 candidate. I don't care who it is, but it can't be a clusterfuck like 2016 where you have multiple strong-ish candidates splitting up delegates and all the rest go to the QAnon-minority preferred candidate (Trump).

Go DeSantis, but I'll gladly vote for someone else. I don't think it'll be Pence; too old, too low energy. I think Youngkin and Zeldin are solid candidate.

[Spurminator]

I think it's simple.

The GOP establishment and moderate non-QAnon republicans, which ARE the majority of Republican voters, need to galvanize behind 1 candidate. I don't care who it is, but it can't be a clusterfuck like 2016 where you have multiple strong-ish candidates splitting up delegates and all the rest go to the QAnon-minority preferred candidate (Trump).

Go DeSantis, but I'll gladly vote for someone else. I don't think it'll be Pence; too old, too low energy. I think Youngkin and Zeldin are solid candidate.

A good start would be for more Republican voters to stop being so limp-dicked about vocalizing any criticism of Daddy Trump, but those gun-totin' redneck MAGAtards have you guys scared.

[ChumpDumper]

I think it's simple.

The GOP establishment and moderate non-QAnon republicans, which ARE the majority of Republican voters, need to galvanize behind 1 candidate. I don't care who it is, but it can't be a clusterfuck like 2016 where you have multiple strong-ish candidates splitting up delegates and all the rest go to the QAnon-minority preferred candidate (Trump).

Go DeSantis, but I'll gladly vote for someone else. I don't think it'll be Pence; too old, too low energy. I think Youngkin and Zeldin are solid candidate.I mean you can do that but the MAGAtards will just cry conspiracy and fuck you in the general one way or the other.

[hater]

:lmao. Only way u stopoing Trump is if u lock him up

[Spurs Homer]

Just keep trump and support him!

you already bought and paid for him, now live with him…

you already sold out your country, your fellow countrymen/women, the constitution, the usa,

now you just sit in your own shitbowl and stfu

[Millennial_Messiah]

A good start would be for more Republican voters to stop being so limp-dicked about vocalizing any criticism of Daddy Trump, but those gun-totin' redneck MAGAtards have you guys scared.

And the funny thing is, the vast majority of them are paper tigers and really have minimal or no gun training. Do you really think those fat guys with beards and "Q" / "WWGIWGA" T-shirts and paraphernalia can actually shoot? I don't.


I mean you can do that but the MAGAtards will just cry conspiracy and fuck you in the general one way or the other.
They need to just shut up and go back to 2015. Keep calm and vote for DeSantis, Youngkin, or Zeldin.


:lmao. Only way u stopoing Trump is if u lock him up
Lock him up and have Hillary be his cell mate, and Bill gets Melania. Fair trade?

[florige]

Getting rid of him is going to be easier said than done. I think Trump personally has doomed the party at least for 2024

[Millennial_Messiah]

Getting rid of him is going to be easier said than done. I think Trump personally has doomed the party at least for 2024

The GOP still flips 6-8+ senate seats in 2024 and if Trump loses the presidency narrowly again, the GOP likely has 2-3 flips in 2026 as well in the senate. Provided the candidate quality is far superior to those Trump hand picked in 2022.

[Leetonidas]

The GOP still flips 6-8+ senate seats in 2024 and if Trump loses the presidency narrowly again, the GOP likely has 2-3 flips in 2026 as well in the senate. Provided the candidate quality is far superior to those Trump hand picked in 2022.

Dems control the senate for two more election cycles confirmed :tu

[hater]

Getting rid of him is going to be easier said than done. I think Trump personally has doomed the party at least for 2024

And the democrats allstars are Joe and Kagala :lmao

Both parties are shit

Anyone who dissagrees is a lemming

[Millennial_Messiah]

Dems control the senate for two more election cycles confirmed :tu

Again, candidate quality matters. We can't run a schmuck like Ryan Zinke (who barely just won MT-01, a GOP but college educated area in the mountains that includes places like Butte/Anaconda and Missoula) against Tester, for example. I think Mooney vs. Manchin is definitely a pick up for the GOP. I think Laxalt is the only re-run candidate you'll see. Laxalt was actually a strong candidate unlike Masters/Oz/Walker/Bolduc, but he just got dicked down a little bit too much by Trump but at least Lombardo won governor.

[Dirks_Finale]

2 years is a long time from now and Trump has these investigations against him and he is 76 and obese - I don't think he will be the nominee.

If I'm wrong and he is the 2024 nominee, I could totally see the GOP picking up Senate and House seats, but losing the POTUS by 10 points. At this point I don't even think he could defeat Cackling-Kamala.

The best approach for the GOP is to simply ignore attention starved Trump and watch him self destruct (like I do with the trolls in this forum :lol ) Let Trump blow up Truth Social at 2am until he blows a gasket.

[pgardn]

Throw him out and he runs 3rd party just to spite the red team.
You dumb fks seem to think he cares about the US and the Republican party and voted for him twice.
He cares about himself you assholes...
Vote for him 3 times like Chris Christian will as a charm.

[Winehole23]

You'd best be hoping Trump expires and the sooner the better for the GOP and the rest of us to start getting over it, MM. No way would he stand aside for DeSantis.

[Winehole23]

Even if they throw Trump in the pokey, he'll probably still run for president.

He'd surely crush Eugene Debs who last ran for US president while in prison, in 1920.

[ElNono]

2 years is a long time from now and Trump has these investigations against him and he is 76 and obese - I don't think he will be the nominee.

If I'm wrong and he is the 2024 nominee, I could totally see the GOP picking up Senate and House seats, but losing the POTUS by 10 points. At this point I don't even think he could defeat Cackling-Kamala.

The best approach for the GOP is to simply ignore attention starved Trump and watch him self destruct (like I do with the trolls in this forum :lol ) Let Trump blow up Truth Social at 2am until he blows a gasket.

You can't stop him from having his rallies. And like it or not, he'll bring out more people than any other GOP candidate, not to mention he'll probably fundraise better as well, and play gatekeeper to that money.

There's no silver bullet here, IMO

[benefactor]

There's no silver bullet here, IMO
Death. Thats basically it

[hater]

"Our best hope is if the candidate dies"


:lmao todays american democracy spreaders :lmao

[Will Hunting]

The GOP still flips 6-8+ senate seats in 2024 and if Trump loses the presidency narrowly again, the GOP likely has 2-3 flips in 2026 as well in the senate. Provided the candidate quality is far superior to those Trump hand picked in 2022.
:lmao you're still making predictions

[Will Hunting]

2 years is a long time from now and Trump has these investigations against him and he is 76 and obese - I don't think he will be the nominee.

If I'm wrong and he is the 2024 nominee, I could totally see the GOP picking up Senate and House seats, but losing the POTUS by 10 points. At this point I don't even think he could defeat Cackling-Kamala.

The best approach for the GOP is to simply ignore attention starved Trump and watch him self destruct (like I do with the trolls in this forum :lol ) Let Trump blow up Truth Social at 2am until he blows a gasket.
Senate seats sure, but Trump on the ballot makes tons of GOP house incumbents in Biden-won districts/blue shifting suburb districts vulnerable.

[Will Hunting]

In terms of senate seats, I see 5 Dem senate seats as truly up for grabs in 2024 - WV, OH, MT, NV an AZ.

- Klobuchar isn't losing Minnesota.
- It's pretty clear that the GOP fever dream of Wisconsin becoming a blood red state didn't happen, so not sure how someone who overperforms as much as Baldwin does loses.
- There isn't a GOP candidate in PA who'd come close to competing with Bob Casey Jr.
- Stabenow is a meh incumbent but the GOP has hit rock bottom in Michigan. The state will have in person early voting by 2024 which will be a turnout boon for Detroit.
- If Angus King retires Jared Golden would easily win a senate race in Maine
- Despite the GOP circle jerk over Youngkin, he barely beat fat fuck Terry McAuliffe in an off cycle, low turnout election. I doubt he'd even run against Kaine but if he did, it wouldn't be competitive.

As far as the 5 seats the Dems could lose:
-WV is gone in pretty much any scenario
-If Trump is on the ballot, it probably makes it easier for Dems to hold NV/AZ but a lot harder for them to hold OH/MT
-If it's someone other than Trump, that definitely helps Rs a lot in NV/AZ, but it makes it a lot easier for Tester and Brown to get the ticket splitters they need to hold their seat

In any case, I think losing 3 senate seats is the most likely scenario for Dems in 2024.

[JamStone]

It would never happen, but...

Give him the ignore button treatment. Just ignore him. He thrives on attention. Needs it. Loves it. Bathes in it. You tell any potential candidates to simply don’t talk about him publicly, don’t mention his name, don’t respond to his public insults. That will infuriate him and he’ll have several social media meltdowns in the process. Then when the primaries debate season comes, invite him to debate, have all other candidates agree not to respond to him in the debate, let him talk, let him figure out what’s happening, let him get more and more sunburst orange in anger that no one is paying him any mind, and he may just self implode on stage right then and there.

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fhymu18XoAIhQ9y?format=jpg&name=small

[Millennial_Messiah]

Senate seats sure, but Trump on the ballot makes tons of GOP house incumbents in Biden-won districts/blue shifting suburb districts vulnerable.

It makes a Schweikert or two vulnerable but also puts seats like MI-07, MI-08 back on the map, two Ohio seats (GOP will re-draw the map but this time no egregious gerrymander, shore up the incumbents, i.e in big favor of the new Cincinnati Democrat in OH-01 (they can legally draw it from Cincinnati to Dayton if the rest of those counties are only shared by one district) and shore up Marcy Kaptur in OH-09 by drawing a Toledo-Cuyahoga D+15 type district using Lake Erie as the connector piece for her (as they've done before) but also try to draw out the freshman in OH-13, which the Dems would probably settle for compared to the 2022 map honestly.

I also believe that the two NE PA districts and the one in West PA all flip if Trump is on the ballot. Add 3-4 seats in NC due to re-redistricting. IN-01 with Trump on the ballot has a better chance to flip. Perhaps SCOTUS will force Illinois to draw a cleaner map like the state court did in NY... who knows, 50/50 chance.

With Trump on the ballot, the GOP offsets a few losses in purple seats in blue states with wins in purple seats in Midwest states. I also think there's actually a chance that NY and CA are trending back to 1990s-pre Obama 2000s-normal in the non-hyper urban areas (i.e. NYC and coastal CA). They will still be likely to safe (D) states on a presidential map but the House could keep plenty of Republican support especially down ballot.

[Will Hunting]

Not even reading your predictions anymore because of how comically wrong they are :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

In terms of senate seats, I see 5 Dem senate seats as truly up for grabs in 2024 - WV, OH, MT, NV an AZ.

- Klobuchar isn't losing Minnesota.
- It's pretty clear that the GOP fever dream of Wisconsin becoming a blood red state didn't happen, so not sure how someone who overperforms as much as Baldwin does loses.
- There isn't a GOP candidate in PA who'd come close to competing with Bob Casey Jr.
- Stabenow is a meh incumbent but the GOP has hit rock bottom in Michigan. The state will have in person early voting by 2024 which will be a turnout boon for Detroit.
- If Angus King retires Jared Golden would easily win a senate race in Maine
- Despite the GOP circle jerk over Youngkin, he barely beat fat fuck Terry McAuliffe in an off cycle, low turnout election. I doubt he'd even run against Kaine but if he did, it wouldn't be competitive.

As far as the 5 seats the Dems could lose:
-WV is gone in pretty much any scenario
-If Trump is on the ballot, it probably makes it easier for Dems to hold NV/AZ but a lot harder for them to hold OH/MT
-If it's someone other than Trump, that definitely helps Rs a lot in NV/AZ, but it makes it a lot easier for Tester and Brown to get the ticket splitters they need to hold their seat

In any case, I think losing 3 senate seats is the most likely scenario for Dems in 2024.

Tester is more vulernable than Brown. Brown has heavy down ballot support and Tim Ryan was a carbon copy of him and we saw how close he got.

either way, I believe the class of '06ers are gone except for maybe Casey. We don't know who the PA candidate will be. I believe a McCormick type with Trump on the ballot would be competitive or possibly win. Someone like Oz or Barnette would obviously lose, but I don't think Oz is considering going into politics any longer. Depends on the candidate. Stabenow is the stronger of the two senator incumbents in MI, but again it's wait and see on the GOP candidate. The GOP governor race in MI this year was a shitshow... both MI GOP and PA GOP need to step up their game. Tammy Baldwin is indeed vulnerable but if and only if the GOP picks a strong candidate, not a hand-selected Trump candidate that nobody ever heard of before until the year-of like a Blake Masters. I think Laxalt beats Rosen, who is the weaker of the two NV incumbents. Sinema is the stronger and obviously more bipartisan of the two AZ incumbents, so I don't think she loses, unless someone like Meghan McCain is running against her. Yes, Klobuchar isn't losing Minnesota. As for Maine, Angus King is likely to retire and if it's Golden, yes he will win but he'll hardly be a more solid (D) vote in the senate compared to Susan Collins. Maine would have two essentially swing vote senators. Also, the Dems would lose ME-02 at the house level if Golden is running for senator. Youngkin could beat Kaine, depending on the national environment; though we'd have to wait and see on the popularity of Youngkin in VA by that point. I wouldn't say he's the favorite considering that Biden would be the favorite to win VA at the top of the ticket, but if you look at the performance of someone like Hung Cao in NOVA (yes he lost, but by a smallish margin) that's telling me there's a chance for VA GOP to win down ballot, up to and including senate.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao why would anyone care about your predictions after how laughably wrong you were this year?

[Ef-man]

Tester is more vulernable than Brown. Brown has heavy down ballot support and Tim Ryan was a carbon copy of him and we saw how close he got.

either way, I believe the class of '06ers are gone except for maybe Casey. We don't know who the PA candidate will be. I believe a McCormick type with Trump on the ballot would be competitive or possibly win. Someone like Oz or Barnette would obviously lose, but I don't think Oz is considering going into politics any longer. Depends on the candidate. Stabenow is the stronger of the two senator incumbents in MI, but again it's wait and see on the GOP candidate. The GOP governor race in MI this year was a shitshow... both MI GOP and PA GOP need to step up their game. Tammy Baldwin is indeed vulnerable but if and only if the GOP picks a strong candidate, not a hand-selected Trump candidate that nobody ever heard of before until the year-of like a Blake Masters. I think Laxalt beats Rosen, who is the weaker of the two NV incumbents. Sinema is the stronger and obviously more bipartisan of the two AZ incumbents, so I don't think she loses, unless someone like Meghan McCain is running against her. Yes, Klobuchar isn't losing Minnesota. As for Maine, Angus King is likely to retire and if it's Golden, yes he will win but he'll hardly be a more solid (D) vote in the senate compared to Susan Collins. Maine would have two essentially swing vote senators. Also, the Dems would lose ME-02 at the house level if Golden is running for senator. Youngkin could beat Kaine, depending on the national environment; though we'd have to wait and see on the popularity of Youngkin in VA by that point. I wouldn't say he's the favorite considering that Biden would be the favorite to win VA at the top of the ticket, but if you look at the performance of someone like Hung Cao in NOVA (yes he lost, but by a smallish margin) that's telling me there's a chance for VA GOP to win down ballot, up to and including senate.

Hung Cao lost by over 5% (smallish margin). :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Hung Cao lost by over 5% (smallish margin). :lol

Right, but it's a Biden ~20% seat in very urban/suburban NOVA.

[Will Hunting]

Majewski_Messiah thinks Hung "Ching chong your dog is gone!" Cao can beat Tim Kaine in a statewide race in a presidential election year :lmao:lmao:lmao

[Will Hunting]

:lmao just noticed him saying Golden would be the same as Susan Collins

Golden literally supports Medicare for All

[Millennial_Messiah]

Majewski_Messiah thinks Hung "Ching chong your dog is gone!" Cao can beat Tim Kaine in a statewide race in a presidential election year :lmao:lmao:lmao

Not at all; I was saying Youngkin could and point to the red-trending direction in the (Biden + ~20) district Cao fairly narrowly lost this year as a sign that the GOP could be competitive in, and even win statewide federal races in VA.

Wasn't suggesting Hung Cao run. :lmao

also :rollin @ "Majewski_Messiah"

but on that note...


I have the new Map Ohio should draw. Keeps a VRA district, keeps Kaptur and the new OH-01 Democrat happy, and gives a seat for the incumbent Democrat in Cleveland. Breaks no Ohio rules, doesn't crack any cities that are the largest city of each county, and doesn't crack a non-district sized county more than 2 ways. All contiguous since it's common practice to use water as a connector. Here you go:

https://i.imgur.com/3IkRPm6.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/w9I2ceq.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/KIvPya2.jpg

[Will Hunting]

Not at all; I was saying Youngkin could and point to the red-trending direction in the (Biden + ~20) district Cao fairly narrowly lost this year as a sign that the GOP could be competitive in, and even win statewide federal races in VA.

Wasn't suggesting Hung Cao run. :lmao

also :rollin @ "Majewski_Messiah"

but on that note...


I have the new Map Ohio should draw. Keeps a VRA district, keeps Kaptur and the new OH-01 Democrat happy, and gives a seat for the incumbent Democrat in Cleveland. Breaks no Ohio rules, doesn't crack any cities that are the largest city of each county, and doesn't crack a non-district sized county more than 2 ways. All contiguous since it's common practice to use water as a connector. Here you go:

https://i.imgur.com/3IkRPm6.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/w9I2ceq.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/KIvPya2.jpg
Except the Ohio constitution requires that each district either be contained within an entire county or that it has an entire county in it.

the Ohio constitution also doesn’t allow cracking a county more than 3 ways, and it says you have to draw a district within the city limits of Columbus.

This map violates multiple parts of the OH constitution.

[Tyronn Lue]

:lmao why would anyone care about your predictions after how laughably wrong you were this year?
This year?

[HemisfairArena]

Good luck, MM,,,Id rather democrats win than see rino republicans like you take the white house. I'll vote democrat if Desantis is the choice just out of spite and I dont give a shit if the country burns to the ground because of it,,,,

[ChumpDumper]

Good luck, MM,,,Id rather democrats win than see rino republicans like you take the white house. I'll vote democrat if Desantis is the choice just out of spite and I dont give a shit if the country burns to the ground because of it,,,,

Why is life so terrible for you?

[ElNono]

Good luck, MM,,,Id rather democrats win than see rino republicans like you take the white house. I'll vote democrat if Desantis is the choice just out of spite and I dont give a shit if the country burns to the ground because of it,,,,

Boomer confirmed...

[Dirks_Finale]

Senate seats sure, but Trump on the ballot makes tons of GOP house incumbents in Biden-won districts/blue shifting suburb districts vulnerable.

True, also depends on the state of the economy. If it is more stabilized by then and the GOP decides to run on a platform of scary Fentanyl rainbow candy are coming for your kids, then forget everything I said and the GOP loses in a landslide on all 3 fronts.

[Will Hunting]

True, also depends on the state of the economy. If it is more stabilized by then and the GOP decides to run on a platform of scary Fentanyl rainbow candy are coming for your kids, then forget everything I said and the GOP loses in a landslide on all 3 fronts.
Imo inflation and MUH GAS PRICES aren’t going to be a thing, the question is how much we’re going to be reeling from the fed’s rate hikes.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Imo inflation and MUH GAS PRICES aren’t going to be a thing, the question is how much we’re going to be reeling from the fed’s rate hikes.

I hope the Fed raises it above 10% honestly. I don't care if it's Dem or Republican. I just want to see the house market get ice cold for a change for the first time since I was like 14 or 15 or so and didn't have money to actually buy in the last recession. I'm sitting on a ton of liquid dough and I just want to buy houses and make money.


Except the Ohio constitution requires that each district either be contained within an entire county or that it has an entire county in it.

the Ohio constitution also doesn’t allow cracking a county more than 3 ways, and it says you have to draw a district within the city limits of Columbus.

This map violates multiple parts of the OH constitution.
As so I figured... drawing out Beatty in Columbus won't happen. It's only theoretically possible if the new court overturns the newer rules. So pretty much my map is good except for keeping the Beatty D+30 or so seat in Columbus. A solid 11-4 isn't bad. It's still one pick up.

[florige]

Good luck, MM,,,Id rather democrats win than see rino republicans like you take the white house. I'll vote democrat if Desantis is the choice just out of spite and I dont give a shit if the country burns to the ground because of it,,,,


How do you figure DeSantis as a RINO?

[Millennial_Messiah]

How do you figure DeSantis as a RINO?

Exactly.......

If anything, Trump is the real RINO.

-He was a registered Democrat up until the mid 2000s.
-He is economically "populist", not conservative.
-He is more Keynesian than traditional classical economic conservative.
-He started the Covid Stimulus pandora's box
-He told people to mask up and get vaxxed until those became unpopular amongst the conservative base
-Operation warp speed was a communofascist big government ploy
-He was asleep at the switch in the riots of Summer 2020 and failed to use the national guard to squash Antifa/BLM at that time, which in large part led to him being seen as incompetent and being a one term president.

[baseline bum]

Exactly.......

If anything, Trump is the real RINO.

-He is economically "populist", not conservative.
-He is more Keynesian than traditional classical economic conservative.


:lmao

His signature piece of legislation was a massive tax cut so that corporations could buy a bunch of their own stock back, that's as conservative as economic legislation comes.

[Will Hunting]

I hope the Fed raises it above 10% honestly. I don't care if it's Dem or Republican. I just want to see the house market get ice cold for a change for the first time since I was like 14 or 15 or so and didn't have money to actually buy in the last recession. I'm sitting on a ton of liquid dough and I just want to buy houses and make money.


As so I figured... drawing out Beatty in Columbus won't happen. It's only theoretically possible if the new court overturns the newer rules. So pretty much my map is good except for keeping the Beatty D+30 or so seat in Columbus. A solid 11-4 isn't bad. It's still one pick up.
Your map violated the Ohio constitution in 10 different ways, I just picked the most obvious ones.

There is a way to draw a locked in 11-4 map just not in the autistic way you did.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao

His signature piece of legislation was a massive tax cut so that corporations could buy a bunch of their own stock back, that's as conservative as economic legislation comes.
It's expansionary / Keynesian / inflationary fiscal economic policy, consistent with the 2020 and later stimulus bullshit manure piles.

What we need now to fix the economy is major contractionary economic policy, from both the fiscal and monetary side.



There is a way to draw a locked in 11-4 map just not in the autistic way you did.
What do you consider to be "locked in"? +15? +20? +10?

Because places like Dayton, Toledo, and Akron are very blue -- but the outer parts of their counties are both quite populated and very red, so if you have to draw the whole county together you end up getting quite purple districts.

[baseline bum]

It's expansionary / Keynesian / inflationary fiscal economic policy, consistent with the 2020 and later stimulus bullshit manure piles.

What we need now to fix the economy is major contractionary economic policy, from both the fiscal and monetary side.



What do you consider to be "locked in"? +15? +20? +10?

Because places like Dayton, Toledo, and Akron are very blue -- but the outer parts of their counties are both quite populated and very red, so if you have to draw the whole county together you end up getting quite purple districts.

LOL calling tax cuts for the rich and for corporations during a time when the economy is decent Keynesian.

[Millennial_Messiah]

LOL calling tax cuts for the rich and for corporations during a time when the economy is decent Keynesian.

I definitely don't believe in tax cuts for corporations. I also think there should be a wealth/net profit limit on corporations, particularly BigTech and BigPharma but also big banks etc.

[baseline bum]

I definitely don't believe in tax cuts for corporations.

So someone against tax cuts for corporations and against limiting abortion was one of this site's biggest Trumptards for six years. JFC :lmao

[Millennial_Messiah]

So someone against tax cuts for corporations and against limiting abortion was one of this site's biggest Trumptards for six years. JFC :lmao
I also travel 30000-60000 miles a year and care about other things such as gas and food prices not to go up. So, yeah. And I'd prefer it if >97% of the population stayed normal, i.e. not LGBTQ+, like the good old days the "others" should be a fringe group and the exception, not the norm. And I don't believe in big government, whether it be surveillance, the "[anti] Patriot Act", TSA, gun control, or regulating your thermostat i.e. restricting your personal comfort. And just as government protects consumers and employees/contractors from discrimination based on race and religion, etc. they should also protect the individual's right to choose to or not to wear a mask and to or not to have taken specific vaccines. Basically I'm a classic libertarian but I do believe in consumer protection activism, basic fundamental concepts such as maintaining long-term price stability, and that big business monopoly should not be allowed to restrict or hire or fire based on restricting individual freedom and liberties.

I don't agree with 80% of anything either party has to offer; I simply side with the lesser of the two evils, per-se. Which is why the myriad single-issue voters, i.e. the armada of 20-something college girls that came out and voted based on freedom of abortion alone this midterm cycle, should not be allowed to vote until they learn where both and all sides stand on all the issues. But I digress.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Simply put.....

Both the (D)s and (R)s are hypocrites on the "My Body My Choice" debate

The (D)s think it should apply to abortion, but not masks and vaccines

The (R)s think it should apply to masks and vaccines, but not abortion

That's why libertarianism is the way to go. End big government

[ElNono]

Simply put.....

Both the (D)s and (R)s are hypocrites on the "My Body My Choice" debate

The (D)s think it should apply to abortion, but not masks and vaccines

No, not really. This is actually a really dumb view of this. Masks and vaccines go well beyond "your body", they largely prevent spread of diseases.

Nobody but the absolute fringe questioned vaccines before COVID.

Which is completely different from abortion. A decisions that's strictly personal.


That's why libertarianism is the way to go. End big government

Stupid stuff like that is why libertarianism is not footed in reality and why it never won or will win at anything.

[baseline bum]

I also travel 30000-60000 miles a year and care about other things such as gas and food prices not to go up. So, yeah. And I'd prefer it if >97% of the population stayed normal, i.e. not LGBTQ+, like the good old days the "others" should be a fringe group and the exception, not the norm. And I don't believe in big government, whether it be surveillance, the "[anti] Patriot Act", TSA, gun control, or regulating your thermostat i.e. restricting your personal comfort. And just as government protects consumers and employees/contractors from discrimination based on race and religion, etc. they should also protect the individual's right to choose to or not to wear a mask and to or not to have taken specific vaccines. Basically I'm a classic libertarian but I do believe in consumer protection activism, basic fundamental concepts such as maintaining long-term price stability, and that big business monopoly should not be allowed to restrict or hire or fire based on restricting individual freedom and liberties.

I don't agree with 80% of anything either party has to offer; I simply side with the lesser of the two evils, per-se. Which is why the myriad single-issue voters, i.e. the armada of 20-something college girls that came out and voted based on freedom of abortion alone this midterm cycle, should not be allowed to vote until they learn where both and all sides stand on all the issues. But I digress.

GTFO you have been a huge Trump cheerleader here for years

[Millennial_Messiah]

No, not really. This is actually a really dumb view of this. Masks and vaccines go well beyond "your body", they largely prevent spread of diseases.


Which is, once again, a personal choice. The neo-Marxist "muh others" argument is the epitome of collectivism and the antithesis of the John Locke principles on which the USA was founded upon.

[Winehole23]

Which is, once again, a personal choice. The neo-Marxist "muh others" argument is the epitome of collectivism and the antithesis of the John Locke principles on which the USA was founded upon.which principles, profe?

[ElNono]

Which is, once again, a personal choice. The neo-Marxist "muh others" argument is the epitome of collectivism and the antithesis of the John Locke principles on which the USA was founded upon.

No it isn't a personal choice when your choice causes death and disease to millions of others.

You couldn't be more wrong about the principles the USA was founded upon. As a matter of fact the founding fathers handed the security and wellbeing of the nation specifically to the newly minted federal government. First thing they mention in the fucking pre-amble of the Constitution no less:

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

[Millennial_Messiah]

No it isn't a personal choice when your choice causes death and disease to millions of others..

:cry "MuH oTHeRs" :cry

That's not even *woke*, that's straight-up communism.

Individualism over collectivism, to the end. Give me liberty or give me death :tu

[ElNono]

:cry "MuH oTHeRs" :cry

That's not even *woke*, that's straight-up communism.

Individualism over collectivism, to the end. Give me liberty or give me death :tu

You just can't grab a gun, mow down a bunch of people and call it muh individualism/muh freedom. Doesn't work that way, never has.

But this is the level with stupid people...

[Will Hunting]

It's expansionary / Keynesian / inflationary fiscal economic policy, consistent with the 2020 and later stimulus bullshit manure piles.

What we need now to fix the economy is major contractionary economic policy, from both the fiscal and monetary side.



What do you consider to be "locked in"? +15? +20? +10?

Because places like Dayton, Toledo, and Akron are very blue -- but the outer parts of their counties are both quite populated and very red, so if you have to draw the whole county together you end up getting quite purple districts.
Depends on how the area is trending. Northeast Ohio for example prolly just needs to be Trump +10 because it’s sprinting right, while a district with the Columbus suburbs prolly needs to be Trump +15 or better.

I’ll send an 11-4 map that complies with the Ohio constitution later, pretty easy to draw.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Depends on how the area is trending. Northeast Ohio for example prolly just needs to be Trump +10 because it’s sprinting right, while a district with the Columbus suburbs prolly needs to be Trump +15 or better.

I’ll send an 11-4 map that complies with the Ohio constitution later, pretty easy to draw.
Yeah I left the original 14th district alone because it's only R+11 but it's far NE OH (Ashtabula, Trumbull, Lake, Portage)


That's very good analysis... since Delaware County seems to be becoming a tech hub and thus bucking the trend of the rest of the state

[Will Hunting]

Yeah I left the original 14th district alone because it's only R+11 but it's far NE OH (Ashtabula, Trumbull, Lake, Portage)


That's very good analysis... since Delaware County seems to be becoming a tech hub and thus bucking the trend of the rest of the state
This is probably the most aggressive gerrymander that complies with all of the non-subjective rules around redistricting

https://i.ibb.co/LJ05bH8/Ohio.png

There actually is a way to draw Cincinnati out, but doing it would piss incumbents off and it would be so ridiculous looking that the Ohio supreme court could very well overturn it even with an R majority. This map could even get overturned by the Ohio SC because some of the conservative justices have indicated in their previous dissents that the partisan fairness rule does at least require a certain amount of Biden won districts.

[Millennial_Messiah]

This is probably the most aggressive gerrymander that complies with all of the non-subjective rules around redistricting

https://i.ibb.co/LJ05bH8/Ohio.png

There actually is a way to draw Cincinnati out, but doing it would piss incumbents off and it would be so ridiculous looking that the Ohio supreme court could very well overturn it even with an R majority. This map could even get overturned by the Ohio SC because some of the conservative justices have indicated in their previous dissents that the partisan fairness rule does at least require a certain amount of Biden won districts.

Good analysis :tu

Can you please also post the summary statistics and which numbers are which districts? From DRA, like I do

That's a good map. I do think that OH-15 district could flip because it ingests the west half of Columbus, which is less blue than the central / east and northern parts but still a lot of blue precincts. I also think the Democrat incumbent could potentially hold in that pinkish district south of Cleveland. I would argue that Akron/Canton are not the same as Youngstown/Warren in terms of trending red and we saw that in the midterms. The GOP candidate was favored and the Democrat won. Summit/Stark is still both more black and remains more democrat than the Trumbull/Mahoning area.

And somehow Marcy Kaptur with all her billions in stashed away campaign funds over the last 42 years would find a way to win the Toledo seat even if it's R+10. :lol (I wouldn't be surprised)

Honestly that map would probably be the best case for the GOP that could actually be approved by the Ohio court system, especially because it keeps Cincinnati blue and gives the new Akron/Canton area incumbent Democrat a chance to win. Kaptur is obviously the biggest loser of that map but she's very hard to beat. Doesn't matter if it's Majewski or a RINO or anything in between, Kaptur is a career 21-0 in her seat based around Toledo for a reason.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) I do think that both sides would be pretty happy with a solid 9-6 map for Ohio considering that's pretty accurate in terms of the partisan lean of the state. The problem is that because of the retarded new rules of the constitution you can't really draw a lot of red or blue districts like before. In particular the Summit County area where it's very hard to draw any district that's not purple within the boundaries of the constitution. Realistically for example, Akron has much more in common with Toledo or outer Cuyahoga than it does Warren or Youngstown which are pretty much blue dog white trash Obama-Trump voter MAGA territory while Akron and Toledo have sizeable ghetto n!gger populations which will never vote red.

I believe I miscounted actually in my earlier post. You drew a 12-3 map or 11-3-1 realistically, not 11-4.

I think for the 4th district you could easily just make that bluer by drawing in Canton together with Summit County.

[Will Hunting]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) I do think that both sides would be pretty happy with a solid 9-6 map for Ohio considering that's pretty accurate in terms of the partisan lean of the state. The problem is that because of the retarded new rules of the constitution you can't really draw a lot of red or blue districts like before. In particular the Summit County area where it's very hard to draw any district that's not purple within the boundaries of the constitution. Realistically for example, Akron has much more in common with Toledo or outer Cuyahoga than it does Warren or Youngstown which are pretty much blue dog white trash Obama-Trump voter MAGA territory while Akron and Toledo have sizeable ghetto n!gger populations which will never vote red.

I believe I miscounted actually in my earlier post. You drew a 12-3 map or 11-3-1 realistically, not 11-4.

I think for the 4th district you could easily just make that bluer by drawing in Canton together with Summit County.
IMO this is the fairest map you can draw.

There's really no way to draw 5 let alone 6 safe D seats in Ohio without doing some really weird stuff with Cuyahoga County.

https://i.ibb.co/g32N54x/OH-Fair.png

https://i.ibb.co/jVFNJN2/OH-Fair-2.png

[Millennial_Messiah]

IMO this is the fairest map you can draw.

There's really no way to draw 5 let alone 6 safe D seats in Ohio without doing some really weird stuff with Cuyahoga County.

https://i.ibb.co/g32N54x/OH-Fair.png

https://i.ibb.co/jVFNJN2/OH-Fair-2.png
Well thankfully for the Dems Kaptur is an electoral juggernaut and wins Trump-leaning seats by 13% :lol


It's a clean map. I would definitely think 2 safe Democrats for Columbus makes sense, rather than drawing the west half into a red seat. I would also think the Dems would probably prefer sort of merging your 9 with 13 given trends... Lorain and Medina (pronounced in Ohioan with the hard "I" which is weird for me because I'm used to the standard/Hispanic pronounciation) aren't what they used to be in terms of blue dog support. 10 should be redder imo.

The less purple seats, the better.

[Winehole23]

Trumpism without Trump, compiled by the unironically dubbed America First Policy Institute:

https://agenda.americafirstpolicy.com/

[Spurminator]

1600911045568389122

[Will Hunting]

Kim Yee is actually a nutcase who spoke at the RNC in 2016 and endorsed Trump, she just won a down ballot race in an ancestrally Republican state.

The hype about her running in a real election (e.g. senate or governor) is hilarious.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Kim Yee is actually a nutcase who spoke at the RNC in 2016 and endorsed Trump, she just won a down ballot race in an ancestrally Republican state.

The hype about her running in a real election (e.g. senate or governor) is hilarious.
Karrin Taylor Robson would have won AZ by around 6-10% imo. Similar to whatever Ducey got in 2018

IMO for AZ senate 2024 you can go one of two routes... nominate someone like Ducey/Meghan McCain/Robson or you can go with someone like Andy Biggs or Paul Gosar, but either way Trump needs to stay the hell out of AZ.

However the one I'd be most confident would actually beat Sinema H2H is Meghan McCain. That family is beloved there especially among the military and older population.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Karrin Taylor Robson would have won AZ by around 6-10% imo. Similar to whatever Ducey got in 2018

IMO for AZ senate 2024 you can go one of two routes... nominate someone like Ducey/Meghan McCain/Robson or you can go with someone like Andy Biggs or Paul Gosar, but either way Trump needs to stay the hell out of AZ.

However the one I'd be most confident would actually beat Sinema H2H is Meghan McCain. That family is beloved there especially among the military and older population.

I remember you using this same tactic of name dropping candidates right off RCP and acting confident in your preferred outcome of the red wave that just went opposite yesterday with the Walker loss capstone.

Now you are back with the con again. Nice.