What are the odds the Spurs will land the #1 pick in the draft???

[wildbill2u]

This site says it has developed a dashboard that will be updated every day to give the odds on the Spurs getting the #1 pick. I don't know if it will work out, but some folks are so focused on the draft pick that I thought you might want to check this daily. 2022-23 San Antonio Spurs Team & Player Stats | StatMuse (https://www.statmuse.com/nba/team/2021-22-san-antonio-spurs-27/2023)

IF nothing else, the dashboard has various stat columns such as Overview, Stats, Roster, History that can be of interest and quickly consulted. It will save me some time and clicks from going to Basketball Reference assuming it gets enough attention every day to stay on the front page of ST.

[itzsoweezee]

This site says it has developed a dashboard that will be updated every day to give the odds on the Spurs getting the #1 pick. I don't know if it will work out, but some folks are so focused on the draft pick that I thought you might want to check this daily. 2022-23 San Antonio Spurs Team & Player Stats | StatMuse (https://www.statmuse.com/nba/team/2021-22-san-antonio-spurs-27/2023)

IF nothing else, the dashboard has various stat columns such as Overview, Stats, Roster, History that can be of interest and quickly consulted. It will save me some time and clicks from going to Basketball Reference assuming it gets enough attention every day to stay on the front page of ST.

The ringer has a good article on draft odds for tanking teams. Basically, you want to be under 25 wins for the season. Go above that and teams historically have not had much luck in the lottery.

The Spurs are bad and trending in the right (bad) direction. They just need a couple of long losing streaks (to make up for the fluke start) and then should in good shape for the tank.

[rascal]

The ringer has a good article on draft odds for tanking teams. Basically, you want to be under 25 wins for the season. Go above that and teams historically have not had much luck in the lottery.

The Spurs are bad and trending in the right (bad) direction. They just need a couple of long losing streaks (to make up for the fluke start) and then should in good shape for the tank.

A few fluke early season wins and a gift win against milwaukee. Now was a hard stretch of the schedule but it's going to get a little easier so the spurs will get a few more wins coming up.

[heyheymymy]

The odds are 14% for Spurs to land the #1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft

[slick'81]

Meh, only losers tank

[Poolboy5623]

Meh, only losers tank

Yes, that is correct. Winning and "tanking" do not go hand in hand. Losing is required.

[CGD]

I did tankathon sim today (spurs 6th worst record right now), and got the 1st pick on first try!!

[exstatic]

No matter where we finish, the odds will never be higher than 14%.

[Mr. Body]

Can't be higher than 14%. Adam Silver saw the Spurs starting to struggle a few years ago and changed the rules.

[couchman]

We have the worst defense in the league and our offense is ranked 25th out of 30 teams.
Yeah, we have a shot.

[BackHome]

I will be super stocked just to land anywhere in the top 5 as I am not to greedy

[BackHome]

I did tankathon sim today (spurs 6th worst record right now), and got the 1st pick on first try!!

Yeah that is a concern definitely need Vassell and Sochan to get more rebounds - But it is weird I think we are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the NBA which lends to our record. However, the second worst is Utah and they are in second place in our division

[wildbill2u]

Some of the same folks that want to tank are criticizing the experiments with the lineups???? Make up your minds.

[TD 21]

Some of the same folks that want to tank are criticizing the experiments with the lineups???? Make up your minds.

Tanking doesn't mean playing with as little ball handling/play making as they currently are, at least not at this juncture.

Bringing in some random guard who can do those things competently isn't changing their fortunes, it'd just give them a chance to not embarrass themselves.

[John B]

Tanking doesn't mean playing with as little ball handling/play making as they currently are, at least not at this juncture.

Bringing in some random guard who can do those things competently isn't changing their fortunes, it'd just give them a chance to not embarrass themselves.

So you want them to lose but not getting embarrassed? :lol Not having a backup PG is the perfect opportunity to lose, while expanding Sochan’s ability as a possible point-forward. I still believe they are better than they’re exhibiting. And putting a decent guard would just make it harder to lose imo. Why? So not to get embarrassed? :lol

[TD 21]

So you want them to lose but not getting embarrassed? :lol Not having a backup PG is the perfect opportunity to lose, while expanding Sochan’s ability as a possible point-forward. I still believe they are better than they’re exhibiting. And putting a decent guard would just make it harder to lose imo. Why? So not to get embarrassed? :lol

Not sure what's hard to understand about wanting them to be able to function but still suck.

When you know you don't even have a chance to do the former, efforts like last night start occurring more regularly and bad habits start to form.

[John B]

Not sure what's hard to understand about wanting them to be able to function but still suck.

When you know you don't even have a chance to do the former, efforts like last night start occurring more regularly and bad habits start to form.

I’m not picking on you. But I think ST posters want them to tank for that Victor/Scoot sweepstakes BUT they cannot get embarrassed. Bruh, a loss is a loss. It’s not like they’re chucking 3’s either. It’s only less than 20 games in the season. By the time they’re 10-40, are we going to crucify this team? We want them to tank BUT it has to be this way or that. Come on.

[TD 21]

I’m not picking on you. But I think ST posters want them to tank for that Victor/Scoot sweepstakes BUT they cannot get embarrassed. Bruh, a loss is a loss. It’s not like they’re chucking 3’s either. It’s only less than 20 games in the season. By the time they’re 10-40, are we going to crucify this team? We want them to tank BUT it has to be this way or that. Come on.

You're too fixated on that specific word. As I said, it's more a question of functionality.

The current youth should be put in a position that best suits them.

[R. DeMurre]

Just discovered that Boris Diaw is the president of Metropolitans 92, Wembanyama's team. Nice to think the Pop or RC can call any time for insider updates.

[BackHome]

Man I miss Boris :bobo

[playbonner15]

Just discovered that Boris Diaw is the president of Metropolitans 92, Wembanyama's team. Nice to think the Pop or RC can call any time for insider updates.
Does it even matter if Spurs dont get 1st or 2nd pick?

[BackHome]

Yes it does as they are still some stud players probably in the 3rd to 6th range - Yeah it would be nice to get a top 2 pick but probably any player in the top 8 range has more upside then any current Spurs player. Not hating on any of our guys it's just the name of the game top talent the higher the draft pick..

Even if we get the number one pick this team still needs more talent so for me I am looking at this year and next year at getting high draft picks with the hopes we make the correct picks. If that happens then start adding some key vets when needed to seriously compete in playoffs

[Vince Carter's ankle]

any player in the top 8 range has more upside then any current Spurs player
The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence.

[Ice009]

Yes it does as they are still some stud players probably in the 3rd to 6th range - Yeah it would be nice to get a top 2 pick but probably any player in the top 8 range has more upside then any current Spurs player. Not hating on any of our guys it's just the name of the game top talent the higher the draft pick..

Even if we get the number one pick this team still needs more talent so for me I am looking at this year and next year at getting high draft picks with the hopes we make the correct picks. If that happens then start adding some key vets when needed to seriously compete in playoffs

If the Spurs get the number 1 or 2 pick, not sure if people are remembering, but the Spurs also have a lot of money to lure in big free agents to play with those guys. I am sure lots of players would like to play with the two guys who as of right now are considered to go 1 & 2.

[John B]

If the Spurs get the number 1 or 2 pick, not sure if people are remembering, but the Spurs also have a lot of money to lure in big free agents to play those guys. I am sure lots of players would like to play with the two guys who as of right now are considered to go 1 & 2.

Not in their 1st 3 years no. Spurs would be very good, but I doubt any Tier player would be knocking on Spurs door to ring chase with a 18 yrs old (19 at draft day).

[wildbill2u]

Just discovered that Boris Diaw is the president of Metropolitans 92, Wembanyama's team. Nice to think the Pop or RC can call any time for insider updates.

Insider updates??? You mean something like, "Pop, he's another weinie wagger, but I think we can keep it under the radar?"

I agree that would be very helpful.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Not in their 1st 3 years no. Spurs would be very good, but I doubt any Tier player would be knocking on Spurs door to ring chase with a 18 yrs old (19 at draft day).

The Spurs put a nice team around Robinson his first year. Cummings and Strickland were nice adds. Not a free agent superstar addition, but I do think people might be lured here if the Spurs draft at one.

[John B]

The Spurs put a nice team around Robinson his first year. Cummings and Strickland were nice adds. Not a free agent superstar addition, but I do think people might be lured here if the Spurs draft at one.

Cummings was a shell of himself and Strickland was 2 yrs? in the league, hardly you call All-Star, and he was traded to Spurs for Cheeks. I remember he didn’t like the Spurs? Plus DRob was 24? and like an athletic freak. Victor? people are still questioning his physique. Let’s see.

[lefty]

No chance

Stern Jr will make sure of that

[rjv]

the pistons might lose cade for the whole year if the stress fracture requires surgery so that would definitely keep detroit deep in the cellar.

[exstatic]

Cummings was a shell of himself and Strickland was 2 yrs? in the league, hardly you call All-Star, and he was traded to Spurs for Cheeks. I remember he didn’t like the Spurs? Plus DRob was 24? and like an athletic freak. Victor? people are still questioning his physique. Let’s see.

Cummings was literally an AS the year before we traded for him, and averaged 22 points his first season here. He was really good for 3 seasons, until he got injured. He was never the same afterwards.

Strickland was really a wildcard, but the Spurs had to do something with Mo Cheeks. He wouldn’t even get an apartment. Lived at one of the airport hotels. Strickland was really talented, but was kind of a knucklehead.

[jjspur]

Right now its hard for the spurs to win because they don't have a whole lot of talent, but like someone said earlier, they aren't as bad as they are playing. I blame pop for trotting out those funky line ups. He knows those lineups won't win many games. Hey Keldon, want a game off ? How about you Devin, didn't you have a hangnail or something ? That's just tanking 101.

Adam Silver says there shouldn't be any tanking but it's probably pops way of saying F U to Silver and tanking anyway. Pops gonna do what pops gonna do no matter what Silver says.
Its going to be a long season until the draft lottery. Hopefully we get lucky, cause a 14% chance while better than a 5% chance or less, is what we have to hope for on top of all the distress and losing needed to get to that point.

I'm betting on luck. :)

[BackHome]

As long as we fall in the top 4 I would be very happy it's not all for #1 or bust because we not one player away and any of the top 4 draft picks would pretty much be an upgrade at every position.

[tapiefan]

As long as we fall in the top 4 I would be very happy it's not all for #1 or bust because we not one player away and any of the top 4 draft picks would pretty much be an upgrade at every position.

Only Bottom 3 have 14% chance of landing #1 pick. Bottom 4 has only 12.5%.

[K...]

9% chance of number 1 pick

please everyone, start your posts in this thread with an actual number. As of now the the spurs are 6 worse and have a 9% chance. Then you can discuss whatever

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Cummings was a shell of himself and Strickland was 2 yrs? in the league, hardly you call All-Star, and he was traded to Spurs for Cheeks. I remember he didn’t like the Spurs? Plus DRob was 24? and like an athletic freak. Victor? people are still questioning his physique. Let’s see.

Cummings was still all star caliber when he joined the Spurs. He was excited to be playing next to Robinson. Not saying the Spurs could land an all star to round out the the team, but it’s possible. And with the hype surrounding Wembanyama there will be players very willing fill out that roster.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

9% chance of number 1 pick

please everyone, start your posts in this thread with an actual number. As of now the the spurs are 6 worse and have a 9% chance. Then you can discuss whatever

1 1/2 games out of the 2 spot. This group is well poised to be in that 14.5% bracket.

[mo7888]

14.5%

[exstatic]

9% is only accurate today. The most accurate statement is that 14.0% is the best we can do, no matter what.

14
14
14
12.5
10
9
7.5
6
4.5
3
2
1.5
1
0.5

If you need to know what our odds are at any moment in time, go to https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[Ariel]

At the moment, Orlando has the best shot at Wemby, with 17%

[scott]

Right now its hard for the spurs to win because they don't have a whole lot of talent, but like someone said earlier, they aren't as bad as they are playing. I blame pop for trotting out those funky line ups. He knows those lineups won't win many games. Hey Keldon, want a game off ? How about you Devin, didn't you have a hangnail or something ? That's just tanking 101.

Adam Silver says there shouldn't be any tanking but it's probably pops way of saying F U to Silver and tanking anyway. Pops gonna do what pops gonna do no matter what Silver says.
Its going to be a long season until the draft lottery. Hopefully we get lucky, cause a 14% chance while better than a 5% chance or less, is what we have to hope for on top of all the distress and losing needed to get to that point.

I'm betting on luck. :)

tbh, Pop was probably gunning to make the playoffs until Silver made his tanking statement, and then Pop decided to go all in on the Wemby chase :lol

[MultiTroll]

14.5%

If you need to know what our odds are at any moment in time, go to https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
Ya that is the point of this thread.

Why did you post all the goofy numbers?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

At the moment, Orlando has the best shot at Wemby, with 17%

They don't because Chicago's pick is top 4 protected.

The only teams that could theoretically have more than a 14% chance would be Houston - own pick (or swap with Brooklyn) plus Bucks unprotected and Utah - own pick plus Wolves unprotected. Neither is likely.

[pad300]

At the moment, Orlando has the best shot at Wemby, with 17%

I don't think that's right. Orlando's currently the 4th worst team in the NBA with their own pick giving them a 12.5% chance. You are adding the chances that Chicago (currently 9th worst) has of jumping into the #1 spot overall, but the pick is protected (Top 5 IIRC); if Chicago jumps up to #1 in the lottery, they keep the pick... Thus it does not add to Orlando's chances of getting #1. The only unprotected pick currently in the lottery is Philadelphia's which is in some sort of weird mess that will end up with it in either Brooklyn or Utah...

[Ariel]

They don't because Chicago's pick is top 4 protected.

The only teams that could theoretically have more than a 14% chance would be Houston - own pick (or swap with Brooklyn) plus Bucks unprotected and Utah - own pick plus Wolves unprotected. Neither is likely.

I don't think that's right. Orlando's currently the 4th worst team in the NBA with their own pick giving them a 12.5% chance. You are adding the chances that Chicago (currently 9th worst) has of jumping into the #1 spot overall, but the pick is protected (Top 5 IIRC); if Chicago jumps up to #1 in the lottery, they keep the pick... Thus it does not add to Orlando's chances of getting #1. The only unprotected pick currently in the lottery is Philadelphia's which is in some sort of weird mess that will end up with it in either Brooklyn or Utah...
Ah, you're correct. I thought it was unprotected. But Houston has the same 17%, via swap with Brooklyn (14% own + 3% swap).

[jjspur]

tbh, Pop was probably gunning to make the playoffs until Silver made his tanking statement, and then Pop decided to go all in on the Wemby chase :lol

I completely agree, but Pops gonna do what Pops gonna do no matter what to somehow throw his two cents in. I don't think pop and Silver see eye to eye on a lot of NBA matters, especially nondescript tanking.

[exstatic]

At the moment, Orlando has the best shot at Wemby, with 17%

Nope. If Chicago’s pick wins, keeping it in the top 4, they keep it.

[exstatic]

tbh, Pop was probably gunning to make the playoffs until Silver made his tanking statement, and then Pop decided to go all in on the Wemby chase :lol

I think they were actually on the ‘win’ track until the Primo mess.

[Ariel]

Nope. If Chicago’s pick wins, keeping it in the top 4, they keep it.
I already corrected my statement before you posted this. It's Houston (by adding their chances through Brooklyn's swap) who's got the best odds:

Ah, you're correct. I thought it was unprotected. But Houston has the same 17%, via swap with Brooklyn (14% own + 3% swap).

[wildbill2u]

Anyone have info on his bone and muscle development? Any history of injuries or unusual physical development? I'd hate to get the pick and then find his body and bones are too fragile to take the wear and tear of an NBA season and career.

[Dejounte]

Anyone have info on his bone and muscle development? Any history of injuries or unusual physical development? I'd hate to get the pick and then find his body and bones are too fragile to take the wear and tear of an NBA season and career.

You’ve got to understand that people high on Wemba will give you the most optimal outlook on this and the people who are low will give you the most dire scenarios. No in-between.

[mo7888]

14.5%

Ya that is the point of this thread.

Why did you post all the goofy numbers?

Because I feel like it?

[CGD]

Why is this a thread?

[baseline bum]

Anyone have info on his bone and muscle development? Any history of injuries or unusual physical development? I'd hate to get the pick and then find his body and bones are too fragile to take the wear and tear of an NBA season and career.

Honestly you gotta expect any top 5 pick to still be a bit of a crapshoot anyways. Lotta top 5 busts like James Wiseman, Patrick Williams, Marvin Bagley, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, DeAndre Hunter, Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Mario Henzonja, Jahlil Okafor, Dante Exum, Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Michael Kidd-Glichrist, Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, etc. JFC what a lot of terrible players picked top 5. Personally I'm taking the chance on Wembanyama unless he can't pass a physical because there is no such thing as a safe pick anyways.

[Ocotillo]

Honestly you gotta expect any top 5 pick to still be a bit of a crapshoot anyways. Lotta top 5 busts like James Wiseman, Patrick Williams, Marvin Bagley, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, DeAndre Hunter, Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Mario Henzonja, Jahlil Okafor, Dante Exum, Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Michael Kidd-Glichrist, Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, etc. JFC what a lot of terrible players picked top 5. Personally I'm taking the chance on Wembanyama unless he can't pass a physical because there is no such thing as a safe pick anyways.

Nice post, I didn't look back to see what you are showing here but it's pretty sobering. Kind of makes one not feel as bad about Luka Sandwich being a bust never mind Josh "Look at this" Primo.

[CGD]

Honestly you gotta expect any top 5 pick to still be a bit of a crapshoot anyways. Lotta top 5 busts like James Wiseman, Patrick Williams, Marvin Bagley, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, DeAndre Hunter, Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Mario Henzonja, Jahlil Okafor, Dante Exum, Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Michael Kidd-Glichrist, Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, etc. JFC what a lot of terrible players picked top 5. Personally I'm taking the chance on Wembanyama unless he can't pass a physical because there is no such thing as a safe pick anyways.

Damn what a list. Who was the kid DET picked second in 2003? That one takes the cake still

[baseline bum]

Damn what a list. Who was the kid DET picked second in 2003? That one takes the cake still

Darko Milicic. Yeah they passed on Carmelo who was kind of empty stats anyways but no one was taking Wade #2 back then so I won't hold not drafting him against them. Passing on Bosh was definitely a huge mistake as he was definitely considered one of the guys who could go #2 or #3 that year though. Still, I gotta take Anthony Bennett for #1 on my all time bust list.

[baseline bum]

Nice post, I didn't look back to see what you are showing here but it's pretty sobering. Kind of makes one not feel as bad about Luka Sandwich being a bust never mind Josh "Look at this" Primo.

The really sobering part is that supposedly RC loved Josh Jackson. And then Derrick Favors too, who while he wasn't a bust like Jackson, still never came anywhere close to his franchise player hype.

[exstatic]

The really sobering part is that supposedly RC loved Josh Jackson. And then Derrick Favors too, who while he wasn't a bust like Jackson, still never came anywhere close to his franchise player hype.

Both of them could have been different in the Spurs system. Wasn’t Jackson the one who got arrested for an incident involving not being allowed into a VIP section?

[baseline bum]

Both of them could have been different in the Spurs system. Wasn’t Jackson the one who got arrested for an incident involving not being allowed into a VIP section?

True. I always wonder if the Spurs drafted MKG and the Bobcats Leonard if their fates would have switched since MKG was viewed similarly as a high motor guy with a similarly broken jumpshot.

[MultiTroll]

Because I feel like it?
You sure showed me.

I was directing it to exstatic and his christmass tree of numbers.

Your 14.5% i actually thought at the time was accurate so was quoting it at the top like OP asked.

SpursTalk

[wildbill2u]

Honestly you gotta expect any top 5 pick to still be a bit of a crapshoot anyways. Lotta top 5 busts like James Wiseman, Patrick Williams, Marvin Bagley, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, DeAndre Hunter, Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Mario Henzonja, Jahlil Okafor, Dante Exum, Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Michael Kidd-Glichrist, Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, etc. JFC what a lot of terrible players picked top 5. Personally I'm taking the chance on Wembanyama unless he can't pass a physical because there is no such thing as a safe pick anyways.

And that doesn't include some of the busts that the Spurs chose as their first pick over the years. I remember a stat that has stayed in my mind over the years that I got from somewhere which said: 80% of the players picked in the first round out of the lottery are not playing in the league after 3 years. Rookie contracts are at best a crapshoot no matter how good the scouting and their college stats might show otherwise. All of them were pretty good players but just couldn't competer for the limited number of jobs available on 30 rosters.

[mo7888]

You sure showed me.

I was directing it to exstatic and his christmass tree of numbers.

Your 14.5% i actually thought at the time was accurate so was quoting it at the top like OP asked.

SpursTalk

Yea...it's 14%... I added the half a point for luck...just feel like we're due...

[exstatic]

You sure showed me.

I was directing it to exstatic and his christmass tree of numbers.

Your 14.5% i actually thought at the time was accurate so was quoting it at the top like OP asked.

SpursTalk

Inverted Christmas tree…