PDA

View Full Version : FRPs: 2024-2028


exstatic
02-09-2023, 05:02 PM
RIF
mo7888
02-09-2023, 05:08 PM
I was running through some different conveying scenarios to see best case, most likely, and train wreck/worst case: the assumption here is that all of them will convey. If you think differently, do your own grid, and miss me with your bitching. The CHA, CHI, and TOR picks can float around. Ours, ATLs, and the swaps are locked in place. Swaps aren’t picks. They are there for reference, only.

Best case: even distribution, never more than 2 FRPs in one year. Likelihood: low. We’d need CHI to jump into the top 4 this lottery to keep their pick, convey a FRP to Orlando in 2024, and start the clock with us in 2026. In addition, we need to receive both TOR FRP and the CHI FRP the last possible year, each, so some nail biting involved.

2024: SAS, CHA (15-30)
2025: SAS, ATL
2026: SAS, TOR (7-30), ATL swap
2027: SAS, ATL
2028: SAS, CHI (9-30), BOS swap (2-30)

Most likely:

2024: SAS, CHA (15-30), TOR (7-30)
2025: SAS, ATL, CHI (11-30)
2026: SAS, ATL (swap)
2027: SAS, ATL
2028: SAS, BOS (swap 2-30)

Train wreck:

2024: SAS
2025: SAS, ATL, TOR (7-39), CHI(9-30), CHA (15-30)
2026: SAS, ATL (swap)
2027: SAS, ATL
2028: SAS, BOS (swap 2-30)

So what's the early report on the 24 draft? I haven't looked at it yet...still focused on 23...
Ariel
02-09-2023, 05:13 PM
That's too optimistic.
Charlotte pick's most likely scenario is turning into 2nd rounders, as they have to make the playoffs this year or the following 2 seasons.
Chicago's pick is protected (10-8-8), chances are this year it conveys to Orlando and starts counting from '25, but it's not guaranteed to convey if their core blows up and they start to tank (not the most likely scenario, but far from impossible).
Also, the swap nomenclature is confusing in regards to swap, as it leads to believe those are 2 separate picks. Should say something like SAS (swap rights with Boston, top 1 protected) to avoid confusion.
exstatic
02-09-2023, 05:14 PM
That's too optimistic.
Charlotte's pick most likely scenario is turning into 2nd rounders, as they have to make the playoffs this year or the following 2 seasons.
Chicago's pick is protected (10-8-8), chances are this year it conveys to Orlando and starts counting from '25, but it's not guaranteed to convey if their core blows up and they start to tank.
Also, the swap nomenclature is confusing in regards to swap, as it leads to believe those are 2 separate picks. Should say something like SAS (swap rights with Boston, top 1 protected) to avoid confusion.
You can’t read, can you? I said the assumption was that they would all convey, and miss me with your bitching and do your own damn grid.

As recently as a week or 10 days, Chicago had a 20% chance to keep the pick. It’s currently 10%, but as malleable as the standings are, it could go right back up again. That’s enough chance to enter into pick scenarios.
Ariel
02-09-2023, 05:16 PM
You can’t read, can you. I said the assumption was that they would all convey, and miss me with your bitching and do your own damn grid.
So your "train wreck" scenario means assuming the best outcome. Gotcha.
exstatic
02-09-2023, 05:18 PM
So your "train wreck" scenario means assuming the best outcome. Gotcha.

The train wreck is FIVE fucking FRPs in one draft. Best outcome is the even split of two FRPs per draft, very low odds.
spurraider21
02-09-2023, 05:25 PM
Toronto's should almost certainly convey right away. even if they fail to retain one of Trent/Vanvleet (they probably could still recoup assets via sign and trade), they dont have a bad enough team to realistically land a top 6 pick

at this point, kind of have to assume charlotte's wont convey. they are a dumpster team right now and just traded plumlee for reggie jackson who they immediately waived, so they're moving in the wrong direction. Oubre is a free agent after this season. what they do have going for them is they should land a great pick this season (hopefully not TOO great), and then get an additional first from the nuggets. they also still have rozier/ball and we kind of just have to hope Miles Bridges comes back for them and provides enough of an impact for this team to get out of the lottery in the next 2 years. its possible, but there are a lot of if's and but's involved

as for chicago... i honestly dont know. 2025 is far out enough where its unclear what their roster will look like. they've been shopping lavine who is the one notable guy they even have under contract for the 24-25 season (derozan's is up after next year, vucevic is up after this year, lonzo on a player option). its very conceivable that they'd be bad enough by then for the pick not to convey. chicago is also losing its first round pick this year to orlando though its possible/unlikely that they recoup a first rounder via portland. luckily that pick has 3 chances to convey
JuneJive
02-09-2023, 05:31 PM
Getting as many '26 picks should be the goal.

That draft seems to be massive.
JPB
02-09-2023, 05:34 PM
So what's the early report on the 24 draft? I haven't looked at it yet...still focused on 23...

You'll have to wait a bit more for Wemby's 15 yo brother (6'6),already playing for french U18.
offset formation
02-09-2023, 05:35 PM
I was running through some different conveying scenarios to see best case, most likely, and train wreck/worst case: the assumption here is that all of them will convey. If you think differently, do your own grid, and miss me with your bitching. The CHA, CHI, and TOR picks can float around. Ours, ATLs, and the swaps are locked in place. Swaps aren’t picks. They are there for reference, only.

Best case: even distribution, never more than 2 FRPs in one year. Likelihood: low. We’d need CHI to jump into the top 4 this lottery to keep their pick, convey a FRP to Orlando in 2024, and start the clock with us in 2026. In addition, we need to receive both TOR FRP and the CHI FRP the last possible year, each, so some nail biting involved.

2024: SAS, CHA (15-30)
2025: SAS, ATL
2026: SAS, TOR (7-30), ATL swap
2027: SAS, ATL
2028: SAS, CHI (9-30), BOS swap (2-30)

Most likely:

2024: SAS, CHA (15-30), TOR (7-30)
2025: SAS, ATL, CHI (11-30)
2026: SAS, ATL (swap)
2027: SAS, ATL
2028: SAS, BOS (swap 2-30)

Train wreck:

2024: SAS
2025: SAS, ATL, TOR (7-39), CHI(9-30), CHA (15-30)
2026: SAS, ATL (swap)
2027: SAS, ATL
2028: SAS, BOS (swap 2-30)

Thanks for doing this compilation exstatic. Had kinda lost track of the picks that actually matter with all the fanfare of our recent SRP haul.
JPB
02-09-2023, 05:36 PM
The train wreck is FIVE fucking FRPs in one draft. Best outcome is the even split of two FRPs per draft, very low odds.


You're missing us with your bitching tbh.
DPG21920
02-09-2023, 05:38 PM
I think CHI blows it up in the off season…they may be getting a top 5 pick next season lol
spurraider21
02-09-2023, 05:43 PM
I think CHI blows it up in the off season…they may be getting a top 5 pick next season lol
yeah im starting to get pretty skeptical it wont convey in 2025, but luckily we have 3 shots at that one
mo7888
02-09-2023, 05:48 PM
You'll have to wait a bit more for Wemby's 15 yo brother (6'6),already playing for french U18.

You've got the Boozer kid getting tons of hype too, but I think he's 25 or 26..
Mr. Body
02-09-2023, 05:56 PM
Unfortunately I don't think you can count on Charlotte drafting well. I have them pegged with Amen or Ausar Thompson at this point.
JPB
02-09-2023, 06:04 PM
You've got the Boozer kid getting tons of hype too, but I think he's 25 or 26..

Yeah, I believe Cameron Boozer shoud be eligible the same year (2026) as Oscar Wenbanyama. (Same as Cooper Flagg and Koa Peat who get some great hype too).

2026 is a good year to have top 5 FRPs tbh. Here's a vid of Wemby's lil' bruh (15 yo, right?) and highlgihts of a game between U18 with Oscar vs. "California Basketball Club" with Bronny and Bryce James. (Bilal Coulibaly also plays for France U18, a projected late first/secound rounder for the 2023 draft).

https://twitter.com/50NuancesDeNBA/status/1559490192213409799


https://youtu.be/m2AV6OlJqCo
CGD
02-09-2023, 06:16 PM
Thanks. I’ve internalized that the CHA pick is basically two SRP. In any event it’s the least quality FRP and should be used to get a better asset later.
spurs10
02-09-2023, 06:37 PM
That's too optimistic.
Charlotte pick's most likely scenario is turning into 2nd rounders, as they have to make the playoffs this year or the following 2 seasons.
Chicago's pick is protected (10-8-8), chances are this year it conveys to Orlando and starts counting from '25, but it's not guaranteed to convey if their core blows up and they start to tank (not the most likely scenario, but far from impossible).
Also, the swap nomenclature is confusing in regards to swap, as it leads to believe those are 2 separate picks. Should say something like SAS (swap rights with Boston, top 1 protected) to avoid confusion.This is what I've been thinking, the Charlotte pick is unlikely to ever happen as FRP unless they sudden win a boatload of games in 2024, which won't happen. Thanks for clarifying it just turns into a SRP.
ace3g
02-10-2023, 07:12 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FopQSfbWIAInEWf?format=jpg&name=large
stnick2261
02-10-2023, 10:27 PM
https://i.imgur.com/qxBMmBH.jpeg

This is what I made to help it make sense
rascal
02-13-2023, 02:57 PM
You see Utah's first round picks.

The Spurs should swap the Toronto 2024 frp pick for Utah's 2023 frp (the Min unprotected pick ), currently the 16th pick in 2023, on draft night.
Utah has three frp is 2023 and 2025 and may not have a frp in 2024.
scott
02-13-2023, 03:09 PM
Would be nice for Chicago's pick to slip to 2026.
slick'81
02-13-2023, 03:11 PM
Jesus christ thats alot of srp's
Mr. Body
02-13-2023, 03:17 PM
You see Utah's first round picks.

The Spurs should swap the Toronto 2024 frp pick for Utah's 2023 frp (the Min unprotected pick ), currently the 16th pick in 2023, on draft night.
Utah has three frp is 2023 and 2025 and may not have a frp in 2024.

We already have four rookies on the team already and this year's draft is really poor. I'd rather wait.
spurraider21
02-13-2023, 03:33 PM
Would be nice for Chicago's pick to slip to 2026.
yeah that would be pretty awesome. would mean that regardless of the charlotte pick, we'd have multiple firsts every year from 2024-2027 (im assuming the raptors pick will convey, they wont be that bad next year). think the hope would be that by the time 2028 rolls around, we'd have hit on enough of those picks to be good enough to the point where the boston swap will convey

and even though we only get 1 first this year, it will be a good one
Kevin
02-13-2023, 03:34 PM
Adding only one first round contract this year is really for the best after three last season plus the crazy amount of upcoming picks.
KingKev
02-13-2023, 03:58 PM
Adding only one first round contract this year is really for the best after three last season plus the crazy amount of upcoming picks.

Not much difference between our second and a late first in terms of positioning though. Early SRP’s are signing multi year deals these days also so I could see us moving up if someone they like is available. Roster space ins’t an issue. Roby, KBD, Khem and Dieng are all out the door this summer likely.
MultiTroll
02-13-2023, 04:33 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FopQSfbWIAInEWf?format=jpg&name=large


https://i.imgur.com/qxBMmBH.jpeg

This is what I made to help it make sense
Does Unprotected Swap mean the Spurs automatically get the better of the two teams pick?
What was agreed upon?
rascal
02-13-2023, 04:35 PM
We already have four rookies on the team already and this year's draft is really poor. I'd rather wait.

This year's draft is not considered poor. I don't see it considered poor anywhere else than by you.
spurraider21
02-13-2023, 04:36 PM
Does Unprotected Swap mean the Spurs automatically get the better of the two teams pick?
What was agreed upon?
yes it means spurs get the better of the two picks
Mr. Body
02-13-2023, 07:20 PM
This year's draft is not considered poor. I don't see it considered poor anywhere else than by you.

Plenty of places say it. I'd say most places recognize it's not very good. I know you just listen to Stephen A Smith and YouTube type horseshit, but people who actually know what they're looking at recognize it as pretty poor overall.
rascal
02-13-2023, 09:10 PM
Plenty of places say it. I'd say most places recognize it's not very good. I know you just listen to Stephen A Smith and YouTube type horseshit, but people who actually know what they're looking at recognize it as pretty poor overall.

You state your opinion as fact all the time. It's not
mo7888
02-13-2023, 09:12 PM
You state your opinion as fact all the time. It's not

No it's not....it's one of the better drafts in quite sometime...far outpaces last year...
MultiTroll
10-11-2023, 09:52 PM
A.J. Dybantsa?

A.J. Dybantsa to '25 recruiting class, eyes NBA No. 1 in '26 - ESPN (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38632768/aj-dybantsa-25-recruiting-class-eyes-nba-no-1-26)
exstatic
10-11-2023, 10:28 PM
A.J. Dybantsa?

A.J. Dybantsa to '25 recruiting class, eyes NBA No. 1 in '26 - ESPN (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38632768/aj-dybantsa-25-recruiting-class-eyes-nba-no-1-26)

Nobody is beating Cam Boozer out for #1 overall in 26. He fucking crushed, at age 15, the same comp that the 20 YO Thompson’s basically sleep walked through.
Atl Spur
10-11-2023, 10:40 PM
Nobody is beating Cam Boozer out for #1 overall in 26. He fucking crushed, at age 15, the same comp that the 20 YO Thompson’s basically sleep walked through.

Just speaks to 26 being a dope draft hopefully:)
BackHome
10-12-2023, 08:41 PM
Nobody is beating Cam Boozer out for #1 overall in 26. He fucking crushed, at age 15, the same comp that the 20 YO Thompson’s basically sleep walked through.


Cam is a twin right? What is the talent level difference between him and do you think they both come out in 26?
exstatic
10-12-2023, 08:50 PM
Cam is a twin right? What is the talent level difference between him and do you think they both come out in 26?

There’s always one that is far superior,even with identical twins. Cam is that one.
JPB
10-13-2023, 12:33 AM
As long as Cam doesn't spread some strange black stuff on his skull.