Grades: Spurs @ Kings - Apr. 2, 2023

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/spurs-kings-grades-78/

https://i.imgur.com/ZYB9bAb.gif

[JPB]

Yeah Barlow, Champagnie and Doug had basically their best game of the season, and career for some, at the same time... So I guess it's something to build on for the first two and great motivation to keep on working hard this summer.

Wesley is def not NBA ready still. confidence is nice but he doesn't have the capacity yet to play the game he's trying to. He should first focus on finding how he could be helpful for the team within his current abilities, doing the little things and maybe getting some groove, rather than insisting on stuff he can't execute correctly and just don't work at that level for him.

I would have added extra points to Pop grade for how he took a time out to trash the refs and stand for Barlow after he got obviously fouled on defense by Sabonis. That's why Pop is one of the greatest ever... Barlow (don't think it was Champagnie, right?) was having a very good night in a nice defensive effort and Pop didnt want Sabonis' dunk on him (after his foul) go like that and taint Barlow's great effort.

[wildbill2u]

We're at a place where I don't think a nice win over a team working hard to get 50 wins and a better place in the playoff is necessarily a bad thing. Isn't it important at this late stage of the season to give the young players their head and let them play as hard as they car rather than stifle their competitive urges with tanking.

[Seventyniner]

"beaming to the heavens"

http://static.tumblr.com/niboaaw/0ZElzy10c/t219721_fry_i_see_what_you_did_there.jpg

[Mr. Body]

The game we'll remember going into next year for Champagnie and Barlow.

Barlow really has nice timing and anticipation on blocks and that swipe near full-court on the secondary break. He's still learning the finer points of the game, but this was eye-opening.

Champagnie continues to be a hard name to type. He has good foundational skills -- he was rotating and helping at the right times, is willing to bang down low, and seems to have at least decent perimeter defense. His cuts early showed a lot of understanding.

Actually, if you ever see the game, the end-of-regulation possession, Champagnie was told to come double Fox up high to get the ball out of his hand. Once this was done, he floated back down to take his man. Both he and Barlow covered this play really well. Nothing too impossible, but Barlow was meant to drift into the lane while Champagnie doubled high, covering two players. If Champagnie didn't double hard enough, then the ball could be swung the wrong way, but double too hard and Fox can get by him. And when Champagnie came back, they both resumed good positional defense. And both boxed out on the miss (although time expired). Their movements were practiced, attentive, and smooth.

Like I said, it wasn't the world's hardest defensive set, but the team executed it well, including both rookies.

[MultiTroll]

Thanks for the non sniffy grade on Pop.
C+ still far too high for this potentially very costly win but you didn't do the A stuff. :tu

[exstatic]

Thanks for the non sniffy grade on Pop.
C+ still far too high for this potentially very costly win but you didn't do the A stuff. :tu

Doesn't affect the Wemby odds AT ALL. Those are locked in. IMO, if we don't get 1,2,3 then 4-7 doesn't matter.

[DAF86]

Doesn't affect the Wemby odds AT ALL. Those are locked in. IMO, if we don't get 1,2,3 then 4-7 doesn't matter.

Don't we have the 3rd worst record? That's the same odds of landing #1 as the worst record, right?

[John B]

I couldn't agree more with the grades and assessments. I wanted the L, but Pop saw his young squad competing, and he coached them hard in the end for a chance on the W.

Champagnie is a bright addition. Again I was expecting a volume shooter, but he has shown he's more than that. He could be Doug's offensive replacement, with the defense. I hope he learns a lot from Doug on how to move without the ball.

Tre had his first triple-double and I'm happy for him. Tre is a soldier who just do what he's told with no complains. I think he will be rewarded come off-season with a new contract. If he's not the starting PG, Tre would be a hell of a back PG, very steady.

Branham again showed masterful in making shots. He's starting to become unstoppable on some of those layups. Please continue the great work.

Barlow played really well and seems getting at ease out there. But he needs to put at least 25 lbs of muscle in that frame, to absorb some of those contacts. I've seen Sabonis literally dislodge him sometimes.

Again I was hoping for a tie with HOU, but it didn't happen. Oh well...

[Vince Carter's ankle]

Don't we have the 3rd worst record? That's the same odds of landing #1 as the worst record, right?
https://sun9-43.userapi.com/impg/sWXfpQ7kg_i2CfG5a7BhLVQLpwJcozEMv4k8AA/9mgh3xZQT0Y.jpg?size=853x493&quality=96&sign=6afbcd042de1401a4de5ea0d795c823b&type=album

[DAF86]

https://sun9-43.userapi.com/impg/sWXfpQ7kg_i2CfG5a7BhLVQLpwJcozEMv4k8AA/9mgh3xZQT0Y.jpg?size=853x493&quality=96&sign=6afbcd042de1401a4de5ea0d795c823b&type=album

So yeah, almost a no consecuence having win. I don't know why folks are freaking out so much. In fact, it would be nice to end the year on a high note heading into next season.

[John B]

https://sun9-43.userapi.com/impg/sWXfpQ7kg_i2CfG5a7BhLVQLpwJcozEMv4k8AA/9mgh3xZQT0Y.jpg?size=853x493&quality=96&sign=6afbcd042de1401a4de5ea0d795c823b&type=album

Thanks for posting. This is the best illustration I've been of the the odds.

[MultiTroll]

Nice chart.
Q on picking 6th.
How can the Spurs have a higher % chance of getting the 6th pick then Houston? 26 Spurs Houston 20.
Is that a typo?

[MultiTroll]

So yeah, almost a no consecuence having win. I don't know why folks are freaking out so much. In fact, it would be nice to end the year on a high note heading into next season.
Not freaking out, simply which is better:

Having a chance of passing Houston or getting Dougie McDermott big minutes over a developing player?
Dougie minutes that most definitely were crucial to the win.

[Mr. Body]

Nice chart.
Q on picking 6th.
How can the Spurs have a higher % chance of getting the 6th pick then Houston? 26 Spurs Houston 20.
Is that a typo?

It's just a weird way things break down, I believe, like how Detroit's most likely draft position is #5. Because of how it's set up, teams can only move into the top four, so each of the four worst teams have the greatest odds of landing at their current position plus four.

[MultiTroll]

^ naw i contend it has to be a typo.
Impossible for a 3rd place team to have better odds then a 2nd place finisher.

[exstatic]

Not freaking out, simply which is better:

Having a chance of passing Houston or getting Dougie McDermott big minutes over a developing player?
Dougie minutes that most definitely were crucial to the win.

We can't actually PASS Houston, we could only stay a tad higher as a worst case. The Wemby odds are the same, but we can drop to 7, and Houston can only drop to 6. WGAF at that point? If we're not 1,2,3 then we're screwed, whether its 6 or 7.

[exstatic]

^ naw i contend it has to be a typo.
Impossible for a 3rd place team to have better odds then a 2nd place finisher.

For sixth place? It's not only possible, but more likely. We're behind them, and it's a mystery that we have better odds at a lower pick?


It's just a weird way things break down, I believe, like how Detroit's most likely draft position is #5. Because of how it's set up, teams can only move into the top four, so each of the four worst teams have the greatest odds of landing at their current position plus four.

Not a typo.

[MultiTroll]

We can't actually PASS Houston, we could only stay a tad higher as a worst case. The Wemby odds are the same, but we can drop to 7, and Houston can only drop to 6. WGAF at that point? If we're not 1,2,3 then we're screwed, whether its 6 or 7.
TF are you talking about. Before the Kings game the Spurs most certainly could pass Houston.
In fact as we speak the Spurs are 1.5 games behind Houston with 2/3 to play.

I'm Wemby or Nothing and think if we're 2nd on it's bleak. Not just 5th on. I see the current core with an anyone-other-then-Wemby pick to remain in Pops Purgatory for the next 5 years. Will love it if I'm wrong and the Spurs do a Chip run with anyone not named Wemby.

The idea of not trying 100% for the best position just strikes a nerve with many Non sniffers who have witnessed Pops Pets etc since Zaza.

[exstatic]

TF are you talking about. Before the Kings game the Spurs most certainly could pass Houston.
In fact as we speak the Spurs are 1.5 games behind Houston with 2/3 to play.

I'm Wemby or Nothing and think if we're 2nd on it's bleak. Not just 5th on. I see the current core with an anyone-other-then-Wemby pick to remain in Pops Purgatory for the next 5 years. Will love it if I'm wrong and the Spurs do a Chip run with anyone not named Wemby.

The idea of not trying 100% for the best position just strikes a nerve with many Non sniffers who have witnessed Pops Pets etc since Zaza.

1st, 2nd, and 3rd ALL have a 14% chance at Wemby. In the Wembystakes, there is NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2ND AND 3RD.

[spurraider21]

Nice chart.
Q on picking 6th.
How can the Spurs have a higher % chance of getting the 6th pick then Houston? 26 Spurs Houston 20.
Is that a typo?
houston has a higher % chance at getting 5th

picking 6th is worst case scenario for houston. spurs having a higher % chance at getting 6th makes sense if they have a worse record. thats a pick houston wants to avoid

[MultiTroll]

houston has a higher % chance at getting 5th

picking 6th is worst case scenario for houston. spurs having a higher % chance at getting 6th makes sense if they have a worse record. thats a pick houston wants to avoid
I see it's probable odds that Spurs have a higher chance of getting 6th then Houston.
I still think we should have made an attempt to flip that. Whatever, H2O under the bridge.

[MultiTroll]

1st, 2nd, and 3rd ALL have a 14% chance at Wemby. In the Wembystakes, there is NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2ND AND 3RD.
What are the Spurs odds of getting Wemby vs Houston and Detroit?

[JPB]

It makes perfect sense than SA has more chances to get 6 than HOU who has more chances to get 5 than SA.

[lefty]

Spurs fans when they see Pop :

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/InsubstantialSomeBadger-max-1mb.gif

[exstatic]

What are the Spurs odds of getting Wemby vs Houston and Detroit?

14,14,14

[Ariel]

Not freaking out, simply which is better:

Having a chance of passing Houston or getting Dougie McDermott big minutes over a developing player?
Dougie minutes that most definitely were crucial to the win.


^ naw i contend it has to be a typo.
Impossible for a 3rd place team to have better odds then a 2nd place finisher.
It's correct. You can think of it like this:
#2 & #3 have equal odds at 1-4
Then, #2 has 27.8% @5 and 20% @6
Meanwhile, #3 has a 14.8% @5. That 13% difference against #3 gets split: 6% gets demoted one place (which is why @6 you have 26% -20% + 6%-) and 7% gets demoted 2 spots (hence 7% @7). So basically 87% of the time they're equally good, 6% of the time #3 is one spot down, and 7% of the time #3 is two spots down. Which is always better for #2.

[MultiTroll]

14,14,14
So is that
14 Detroit
14 Houston
14 San Antonio?

[MultiTroll]

^ I'm just messing with you. :rollin

While i agree 99% of the seasons main goal has been accomplished, I still think Pop should have finished and made a final run at Houston.
Having a hot Dougie McD in to swing the win was a horrible strategy move.

No, no contender is going to up Dougies stock by seeing a Game 77 hot streak. The entire NBA knows he is a defensive traffic cone.
We saw all the offers he got at the deadline, right?

Only way he is moved is next year when a team needs cap relief and takes him in his final year contract.
That is if Popped doesn't buy him out. :rolleyes

[scott]

With how many times this has been discussed this year, everyone on this board should have the draft odds memorized by now. Yet, here we are.

[BackHome]

It's because of Covid

[rjv]

i couldn't help but find myself happy for the young ones after this win even it it means we likely won't drop to 2n worst records. there is value in a young team learning how to win and this game was a perfect example of that.

[exstatic]

i couldn't help but find myself happy for the young ones after this win even it it means we likely won't drop to 2n worst records. there is value in a young team learning how to win and this game was a perfect example of that.

It had to be soul crushing during the 1-16 and 0-16 streaks.

[John B]

^ I'm just messing with you. :rollin

While i agree 99% of the seasons main goal has been accomplished, I still think Pop should have finished and made a final run at Houston.
Having a hot Dougie McD in to swing the win was a horrible strategy move.

No, no contender is going to up Dougies stock by seeing a Game 77 hot streak. The entire NBA knows he is a defensive traffic cone.
We saw all the offers he got at the deadline, right?

Only way he is moved is next year when a team needs cap relief and takes him in his final year contract.
That is if Popped doesn't buy him out. :rolleyes

It changes everything with his expiring contract. I also wanted the L as it would’ve gotten them tied with HOU and a toss-of-coin chance at 2. (I know ALL about the same 14% chance for 3 worst teams, but the possibility of sliding all the way to 7th pick instead of 6th could be a pick shy of drafting a Cam Whitmore, just an example.

Doug wasn’t the only one who had a good game. Trey got his first triple-double, Champagnie got his career high. Honestly with the exception of Blake, everybody played well against a playoff bound team. They competed and Pop coached them hard at the end to help reward them with a win. I think Pop chose to teach vs getting a % of getting the 6th/7th pick. At the end, Pop chose to coach. I guess we don’t have 5 rings to question his decision what’s best for the team.

[Ariel]

It changes everything with his expiring contract. I also wanted the L as it would’ve gotten them tied with HOU and a toss-of-coin chance at 2. (I know ALL about the same 14% chance for 3 worst teams, but the possibility of sliding all the way to 7th pick instead of 6th could be a pick shy of drafting a Cam Whitmore, just an example.
I agree with you, but like Mr Body pointed out somewhere, the difference between #2 and #3 only matters when they're both out of the top 4. And in such a scenario, given Houston's needs (playmaking and defense) and track record (going all or nothing) I think they'd target one of the Thompson twins (playmaking and perceived upside -whether real or not-) or hometown boy Jarace Walker (defense to make up for Sengun). So if we end up missing on Cam Whitmore, IMO it's unlikely it'll be because we end up #3 instead of #2.

[rascal]

Houston won tonight so Spurs back in with a chance to tie and a coin flip in the end.

[John B]

Houston won tonight so Spurs back in with a chance to tie and a coin flip in the end.

Damn and over the Nuggets. Don’t worry Spurs are not winning over Sun, down a lot.

[MultiTroll]

We can't actually PASS Houston, we could only stay a tad higher as a worst case. The Wemby odds are the same, but we can drop to 7, and Houston can only drop to 6. WGAF at that point? If we're not 1,2,3 then we're screwed, whether its 6 or 7.


Houston won tonight so Spurs back in with a chance to tie and a coin flip in the end.
rascal could you explain that to exstatic?

And it's not just by tie and coinflip. Spurs can now also pass Houston in losses.
3 games left for Spurs.
2 games left for Houston.

20-62 Spurs lose out
21-61 Houston with one more miracle win like tonight vs Denver.

[ambchang]

Nice chart.
Q on picking 6th.
How can the Spurs have a higher % chance of getting the 6th pick then Houston? 26 Spurs Houston 20.
Is that a typo?

The only scenario where Houston would pick 6th is to have four other teams that finished with a better record than them get the first four picks, which is not as likely as the spurs picking 6th, which only require three teams with a better record leap frogging the spurs and either one of Houston or Detroit getting one of the first four picks.

[rascal]

1st, 2nd, and 3rd ALL have a 14% chance at Wemby. In the Wembystakes, there is NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2ND AND 3RD.

Yes there is a difference. At 2nd the Spurs will have the pick that they like other than Wemby or even the option to trade that pick. 2 is better than 3 or lower.

[exstatic]

1st, 2nd, and 3rd ALL have a 14% chance at Wemby. In the Wembystakes, there is NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2ND AND 3RD.


Yes there is a difference. At 2nd the Spurs will have the pick that they like other than Wemby or even the option to trade that pick. 2 is better than 3 or lower.

I'll increase the size of the part you ignored or failed to read. Regarding picking #1 overall, both 2 and 3 have a 1/7 chance. NO DIFFERENCE.

[rascal]

I'll increase the size of the part you ignored or failed to read. Regarding picking #1 overall, both 2 and 3 have a 1/7 chance. NO DIFFERENCE.

It can be taken either way. The draft can be called the Wembystakes.

Saying there is no difference in 2nd or 3rd can either mean no difference in probability between getting the 2nd pick or third pick but it can also mean you see no difference if the Spurs get 2nd or 3rd pick.

Most people know about the odds in getting 2nd or 3rd now but still many are saying outside of the top pick it doesn't matter where the Spurs pick.