Final 3 games. Catch Houston for #2 or stay at #3?

[MultiTroll]

5 games left. 3 for Spurs, 2 for Rockets.
Mind boggling that the Spurs control their own Lotto seeding for #2 or #3. Lose out and we are #2, period. Thought we could discuss these as they come.

Thur San Antonio Vs Portland

Fri Houston @ Charlotte
Saturday San Antonio Vs Minn Saturday

Sunday Houston @ Washington
Spurs Vs Dallas




Think it might come down to Spurs Vs Dallas on Sunday, and it may well. But Dallas sitting at #10 protected stunningly won tonight in the last 3 minutes vs Kings.

[MultiTroll]

1. San Antonio Vs Portland.
Portland has plenty of incentive to tank as they are sitting at #5 and control their own. Locking horns with 3 other teams.
Currently a half game better then Wiz and Pacer and 1 game ahead of Orlando. Portland chooses to lose out, they are #5.
That's kinda scary.
Are we looking at a total tankfest?

1b Houston @ Charlotte. Charlotte on of the few teams that has absolutely no seeding to be won or lost. Don't think Spurs should count on a Rockets loss -at all.

That all the further from me for now. This whole thing seems to change every couple days.

[baseline bum]

Mind boggling that the Spurs control their own Lotto seeding for #2 or #3. Lose out and we are #2, period.

Not true, both teams have 20 wins so if the Spurs lose out and Rockets lose out it'll come down to a coin flip for the tiebreaker.

[Mr. Body]

A masterfully tanking Portland will be hard to lose to tomorrow.

[MultiTroll]

Not true, both teams have 20 wins so if the Spurs lose out and Rockets lose out it'll come down to a coin flip for the tiebreaker.
I missed that. For some reason thought we were at 19 still.
So we can control getting to the coin toss by losing out.

[John B]

How many players do Spurs have left? 7? :lmao
I think Spurs lose all 3 games, and Spurs win the coin toss.

[pookenstein]

I don't think we'll lose tonight.

[rascal]

Portland is sitting everyone out.
They won with Sharpe going off so he might even sit tonight.

Houston is going to have to win that Charlotte game.

[exstatic]

Portland is sitting everyone out.
They won with Sharpe going off so he might even sit tonight.

Houston is going to have to win that Charlotte game.

Doesn't matter. They're not used to intentionally dumping games. If it looks too promising for us, Pop will play tank commander Gorgui 30+ minutes. They have no answer for that.

[Mr. Body]

Portland has way more incentive to tank than the Spurs. They stand to drop from 5th potentially all the way to 8th if they win. This would drop them from a 41.1% chance at top 4 to 26.3%.

Their players may get shot if they compete in this game. I predict a comfortable Spurs win.

[slick'81]

Just lose baby

[exstatic]

Portland has way more incentive to tank than the Spurs. They stand to drop from 5th potentially all the way to 8th if they win. This would drop them from a 41.1% chance at top 4 to 26.3%.

Their players may get shot if they compete in this game. I predict a comfortable Spurs win.

They'll probably wind up in a huge 3-4 way tie, and could drop to 8th anyway with coin flips.

Pop's got this.

[Mr. Body]

There was an old Encyclopedia Brown story where two teams of kids were competing in a slowest bicycle race. Problem was, the kids were going so slow they kept tipping over their bikes and never got anywhere. Then our brainiac detective came up with a solution. What was it?

[slick'81]

There was an old Encyclopedia Brown story where two teams of kids were competing in a slowest bicycle race. Problem was, the kids were going so slow they kept tipping over their bikes and never got anywhere. Then our brainiac detective came up with a solution. What was it?


you son of a bitch im in

[exstatic]

There was an old Encyclopedia Brown story where two teams of kids were competing in a slowest bicycle race. Problem was, the kids were going so slow they kept tipping over their bikes and never got anywhere. Then our brainiac detective came up with a solution. What was it?

Put Pop on the bicycle.

[Mr. Body]

They switched bicycles.

Tonight's solution: players wear the uniforms of the other team.

[Spursfanfromafar]

They switched bicycles.

Tonight's solution: players wear the uniforms of the other team.

I would have had a race in the reverse. Who goes the opposite side the fastest is the winner.

[MultiTroll]

They'll probably wind up in a huge 3-4 way tie, and could drop to 8th anyway with coin flips.

Pop's got this.
Portland controls it's own finish. They can avoid any ties and would secure 5th by losing out.

Pops got this in the sense that he can choose to out tank them or not.
We'll see.

[exstatic]

Portland controls it's own finish. They can avoid any ties and would secure 5th by losing out.

Pops got this in the sense that he can choose to out tank them or not.
We'll see.

Based on his lineups and rotations in PHO, he'll choose to. We're apparently tanking for the slot two tie coin flip.

[MultiTroll]

^ I sure hope so.

This final weekend of NBA is going to have some very entertaining Tank / Not tank games. :corn::lol

[duncan2150]

Just play, the only thing now is having at worst a pick 6 or a pick 7 so the best thing is trying to finish the season in a good way imo.

[spurs10]

Entertain the crowd.

[John B]

Based on his lineups and rotations in PHO, he'll choose to. We're apparently tanking for the slot two tie coin flip.

On his interview, Pop was saying they lost 2 players the night before (Barlow? Devonte?) and checking on a 3rd one. We might see Dieng playing 48 minutes tonight :lol

[Dex]

Spurs need to keep the game close until the very end, then hope that some of the guys for Portland want to play hero.

Players are competitive, they hate losing. If it comes down to the last 2 minutes, they WILL compete

[John B]

1987 - 21-61 Drafted #1 pick David Robinson
1997 - 20-62 Drafted #1 pick Tim Duncan
2023 - 19-63 ???

[Dex]

1987 - 21-61 Drafted #1 pick David Robinson
1997 - 20-62 Drafted #1 pick Tim Duncan
2023 - 19-63 ???

San Antonio selects....Batt Monner.

[Spurs Homer]

Fucking idiots

[Mr. Body]

I wonder if people realize how little this win shifts the lottery percentages. No, probably not.

[MultiTroll]

https://media.proprofs.com/images/QM/user_images/2170919/img_ly_1508526138.png
I can come back from 9 points down and beat a totally tanking team.

[Thomas82]

1987 - 21-61 Drafted #1 pick David Robinson
1997 - 20-62 Drafted #1 pick Tim Duncan
2023 - 19-63 ???

Actually the Spurs finished 28-54 in the 1986-87 season, but my fingers are crossed for us to have the same end result in the lottery 36 years later.

[itzsoweezee]

5 games left. 3 for Spurs, 2 for Rockets.
Mind boggling that the Spurs control their own Lotto seeding for #2 or #3. Lose out and we are #2, period. Thought we could discuss these as they come.

Thur San Antonio Vs Portland

Fri Houston @ Charlotte
Saturday San Antonio Vs Minn Saturday

Sunday Houston @ Washington
Spurs Vs Dallas




Think it might come down to Spurs Vs Dallas on Sunday, and it may well. But Dallas sitting at #10 protected stunningly won tonight in the last 3 minutes vs Kings.

It doesn’t matter if they’re bottom two or bottom three.

[John B]

Actually the Spurs finished 28-54 in the 1986-87 season, but my fingers are crossed for us to have the same end result in the lottery 36 years later.

I always mistake that. We moved to San Antonio in 1988 when Spurs had the dismal 21-61 record, yipee! That year they drafted Sean, then the following season 1989-90 at DRob rookie year, they finished 56-26 which was the biggest turnaround then. Since then I became a fan.

[scott]

I wonder if people realize how little this win shifts the lottery percentages. No, probably not.

And no matter how many times it is explained here, no less.

[exstatic]

I wonder if people realize how little this win shifts the lottery percentages. No, probably not.

People freaking out about a 7% chance at #7, when we have DOUBLE that chance, 14%, to nab Wemby.

[Dejounte]

People are going to cry and bitch MORE about missing out on a top 2 pick in the lottery than they would cry and bitch about being 6 or 7. And it won’t get through to their heads that no matter what seeding we have now doesn’t matter in terms of the odds of landing any of the top 4 picks. People are stoopid.

[Mr. Body]

People freaking out about a 7% chance at #7, when we have DOUBLE that chance, 14%, to nab Wemby.

And it's only a one in two chance of not having that 7% chance at #7 and slightly beefier chance at #6, because they would be tied with Houston. This win doesn't really matter.

[rascal]

Still better 2nd than 3rd. They get the higher 2nd round pick too. Can miss out on a solid 2nd round pick by one pick.

[MultiTroll]

Still better 2nd than 3rd. They get the higher 2nd round pick too. Can miss out on a solid 2nd round pick by one pick.
The thought of doing as well as possible is just not a policy of 2018 - present Popper crowd.

[Dejounte]

Still better 2nd than 3rd. They get the higher 2nd round pick too. Can miss out on a solid 2nd round pick by one pick.

And what 2nd round pick has ST honestly been excited about?

[Mugen]

And what 2nd round pick has ST honestly been excited about?

Blair tbh.

[MultiTroll]

And what 2nd round pick has ST honestly been excited about?


Blair tbh.
Manu GNob :toast

https://library.sportingnews.com/2021-08/manu-ginobili-san-antonio-spurs-nba_19qu3perk57qt1q9v3i0bzamxo.jpg

[Dejounte]

Blair tbh.

Great! 37th pick who no one had high hopes for pre-draft and is one pick out of over 50 in two decades.

[Dejounte]

The point is not that you can or cant get a good player in the 2nd round. It’s that putting all your eggs in that basket is what’s appalling and that no one really has that high expectations for those players in the first place. If you did, you’re lying. ST is as cynical as they come.

[MultiTroll]

Great! 37th pick who no one had high hopes for pre-draft and is one pick out of over 50 in two decades.
The best second-round picks in NBA Draft history | Sporting News Canada (https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nba/news/the-best-second-round-picks-in-nba-draft-history/oewwhsuaqzob1y196ucdwtvf7)

Nickola Jokic.

For Sniffers there is Patty Mills, altho drafted by Portland.
Goran Drajic.

[Dex]

And it's only a one in two chance of not having that 7% chance at #7 and slightly beefier chance at #6, because they would be tied with Houston. This win doesn't really matter.

https://i.imgur.com/6f8YDQ5.png

With the 2nd worst record, the Spurs highest percentage would be landing at #5 with a possibility of dropping to #6.

With the 3rd worst record, the Spurs highest percentage is landing at #6 and opens up the possibility of falling all the way to #7. As it stands, we have a 40% chance of finishing top 3, and a 33% chance of ending up with 6 or 7.

Basically, getting the 2nd worst record gives San Antonio a 13% higher percentage of NOT dropping out of the top 5....which, as stated is roughly the same percentage we have to nab Wendy.

The ship has basically already sailed, but when we are arguing percentage points then 13% is NOT insignificant.

[MultiTroll]

The point is not that you can or cant get a good player in the 2nd round. It’s that putting all your eggs in that basket is what’s appalling and that no one really has that high expectations for those players in the first place.
So allowing a tanking team that's up 119-110 with under 5 minutes left to go ahead and win in exchange for moving from 2nd to 3rd "putting all your eggs in that basket" and is a bad thing?

[Dejounte]

So allowing a tanking team that's up 119-110 with under 5 minutes left to go ahead and win in exchange for moving from 2nd to 3rd "putting all your eggs in that basket" and is a bad thing?

The point is completely going over your head, man.

[MultiTroll]

The point is completely going over your head, man.
:rollin
the irony

[exstatic]

https://i.imgur.com/6f8YDQ5.png

With the 2nd worst record, the Spurs highest percentage would be landing at #5 with a possibility of dropping to #6.

With the 3rd worst record, the Spurs highest percentage is landing at #6 and opens up the possibility of falling all the way to #7. As it stands, we have a 40% chance of finishing top 3, and a 33% chance of ending up with 6 or 7.

Basically, getting the 2nd worst record gives San Antonio a 13% higher percentage of NOT dropping out of the top 5....which, as stated is roughly the same percentage we have to nab Wendy.

The ship has basically already sailed, but when we are arguing percentage points then 13% is NOT insignificant.

Who cares about top 5? It’s a top 3 draft. Besides, it was a coin flip, anyway. We didn’t HAVE second, and drop to third. We were briefly tied. It would almost be worth Houston winning another one to see all of you in a tizzy again.

[MultiTroll]

Who cares about top 5? It’s a top 3 draft. Besides, it was a coin flip, anyway. We didn’t HAVE second, and drop to third. We were briefly tied. It would almost be worth Houston winning another one to see all of you in a tizzy again.
The way this season is going, a Houston win would be a howl.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Really the difference between finishing 2nd or 3rd only really impacts the odds of selecting 5th vs 6th and finishing 2nd to last guarantees we won't get the 7th pick. So yeah, not really an issue for me since the odds on those top 4 picks don't change regardless of the finish 1 through 3.

[slick'81]

Really the difference between finishing 2nd or 3rd only really impacts the odds of selecting 5th vs 6th and finishing 2nd to last guarantees we won't get the 7th pick. So yeah, not really an issue for me since the odds on those top 4 picks don't change regardless of the finish 1 through 3.

yea but id rather not fall a spot further if i didnt have to

[exstatic]

yea but id rather not fall a spot further if i didnt have to

Six or seven doesn’t matter in this draft. It’s three players, and a pretty steep cliff to the next level.

[Ariel]

Manu was the Spurs best 2nd rounder at 57 and it was luck more than anything. In fact the Spurs took Giricek (same position) that very year, so if the FO had really known what they had in Manu, they wouldn't have gambled missing out on him by letting every team pick twice before grabbing him. Credit to RC Buford for using that last dollar on his wallet wisely, though. 2nd rounders are a crap shoot.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Six or seven doesn’t matter in this draft. It’s three players, and a pretty steep cliff to the next level.

As we've proven with the Joshua Primo pick, once you get past the no-brainers, this team is willing to go off the path anyway. We can do that just as easily from the 5, 6 or 7 position.

[Mr. Body]

Six or seven doesn’t matter in this draft. It’s three players, and a pretty steep cliff to the next level.

I've said it elsewhere, but I actually see a dead spot between 4-6, maybe even including 3. To me it's Wembanyama, Scoot, and then possibly Miller, then a drop off of players I personally don't value and don't know if the team will value them. I'm saying Amen and Ausar Thompson and probably Cam Whittmore. We might see a guy like Jarace Walker get taken in the top six. We might see Taylor Hendricks go that high, but probably not both.

If you're drafting 4-6, you may be taking players who aren't ready and may never be ready, PLUS you're paying a premium for them.

It's counter-intuitive, but if I don't land 1 or 2, then I don't mind dropping several picks, UNLESS I'm sure I can trade down, OR I actually value one of those players mentioned above. Reason is that a player I like is likely going to be there at 6 or 7 and I get them at a better pay scale.

Again, this is ONLY if I miss out on the top 1 and 2. AND I can't get value out of 3-5 by trading them.

[DPG21920]

There’s risk to finishing 3rd vs 2nd but honestly I kind of prefer 3rd…..Only because if you survive not getting pick 6 or 7, then your odds IMPROVE on cracking into top 4 at that point. Ya, you have higher odds at pick 7 & 6 combined, but if you can clear those hurdles? Your pick 5 odds are less in position 3 and as many have said all that matters is getting as close to top 3 as possible.

It’s going to be gut wrenching hearing picks 7 & 6 called out - but if Spurs are still alive after that, odds of being in top 4 now go way up which is what matters (especially top 3)

[DPG21920]

Thinking ahead, obviously want a top 2 pick. But if Spurs land pick 3, would be sick if it was DET who landed pick 2. I wonder with Cade/Ivey already if they would take Miller and SA still ends up with Scoot or if SA could trade with DET to give them some extra value to do that.

Just a random scenario I’m thinking about.

[MultiTroll]

Couple reminders for you "it doesn't matter" guys.
And I get your point 100%. However:

Greek Freak 12th or something like that.
Kwa Leonard 15th.

Even with improved scouting methods it's not a 100% accurate proposition.

[exstatic]

Couple reminders for you "it doesn't matter" guys.
And I get your point 100%. However:

Greek Freak 12th or something like that.
Kwa Leonard 15th.

Even with improved scouting methods it's not a 100% accurate proposition.

We could have picked either of them with #7.

[Dex]

I simply don't believe that picks 4-7 are basically the same value like some people are trying to make them out to be, but it's a moot point because when Houston loses tonight, the Spurs will be locked in third anyways.

Just remember, there are plenty of times Spurs have scouted out great prospects just to have another team swoop in and grab them at the last second. Nic Batum immediately comes to mind, and he was way further down the draft.

The higher the Spurs are, the better chances they have to get THEIR guy in their range.

[Mr. Body]

I simply don't believe that picks 4-7 are basically the same value like some people are trying to make them out to be, but it's a moot point because when Houston loses tonight, the Spurs will be locked in third anyways.

Just remember, there are plenty of times Spurs have scouted out great prospects just to have another team swoop in and grab them at the last second. Nic Batum immediately comes to mind, and he was way further down the draft.

The higher the Spurs are, the better chances they have to get THEIR guy in their range.

The point is how you put players in tiers. If you really dig the Thompsons and/or Whitmore, cool. I understand why. To me, they are in the same Tier of "athletic marvels with gaping holes in their games."

Now, I think those players are all going to go high, just after the top 2. Brandon Miller will probably go top 3 or 4. Another player might sneak in there. It's hard (right now) to see anyone jumping past these players. Maybe Jarace Walker or Taylor Hendricks. We'll see.

The Tier after those "athletic marvels" are players (to me) like Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Anthony Black, Gradey Dick. Let's call them the 'more skilled' Tier. I would love to have any of those players on my team. Do I value them more than Wembanyama? Of course not. Do I value them more than Thompson/Thompson/Whitmore? Yes, I do.

Ergo, if I miss on those top 2 picks, I'm fine dropping, because I don't think anyone is going to pick all of those 'more skilled' Tier players before they get through the 'athletic marvels' Tier.

So, yes, because of how I'm reading the way things will fall out, I do see the 4-7 range as pretty flat. And I'd rather pick one of my 'more skilled' Tier players before an 'athletic marvel' Tier player. That's just how I am approaching this. The problem, honestly, to me? Is if we land at 4-5 and can't trade slightly down.

[scott]

People are going to cry and bitch MORE about missing out on a top 2 pick in the lottery than they would cry and bitch about being 6 or 7. And it won’t get through to their heads that no matter what seeding we have now doesn’t matter in terms of the odds of landing any of the top 4 picks. People are stoopid.

Even our own DPG21920 (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=13014) lamented on Twitter that if Houston lands #1 from the 2 spot, we'll be kicking ourselves, but that's also the wrong way to look at things. There are so many steps between the final seeding and the draft lotto, that you can't simply say "see, Houston got Wemby! Had we just lost 2 more games we'd be getting him!" Swapping positions in the standings does not translate directly to swapping spots in the lottery.

But then again, trying to explain probability to the average human being is like trying to hit a hole-in-one from the moon.

This win is meaningless, except for that 7% chance we land #7 or whatever 2nd rounder rascal (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=914) loves that we might miss out on

[DPG21920]

Even our own DPG21920 (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=13014) lamented on Twitter that if Houston lands #1 from the 2 spot, we'll be kicking ourselves, but that's also the wrong way to look at things. There are so many steps between the final seeding and the draft lotto, that you can't simply say "see, Houston got Wemby! Had we just lost 2 more games we'd be getting him!" Swapping positions in the standings does not translate directly to swapping spots in the lottery.

But then again, trying to explain probability to the average human being is like trying to hit a hole-in-one from the moon.

This win is meaningless, except for that 7% chance we land #7 or whatever 2nd rounder rascal (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=914) loves that we might miss out on

To be clear, I added the context that the feeling of HOU landing Wemby from spot 2 has nothing to do with math. I said its how it will be “viewed” and it will be out of pure emotions/fate…but not math. So there’s some context to what I said…

[Ariel]

#2 and #3 have the same odds at 1-4, and in practical terms the only difference is when they both land outside top 4, where #2 pushes #3 one pick back.
So unless there's a player you badly want you think Houston would take at 5/6, it makes no difference whatsoever. Even then, that scenario happens only 20% of the time.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

We could have picked either of them with #7.

And if a player like that is drafted 12th or 15th this year all the armchair GMs in here will wonder why the Spurs passed on this gem at 5,6 or 7.

[scott]

To be clear, I added the context that the feeling of HOU landing Wemby from spot 2 has nothing to do with math. I said its how it will be “viewed” and it will be out of pure emotions/fate…but not math. So there’s some context to what I said…

Yeah, I figured you understand that and were just observing how others will view it, but that's not the correct way to look at it. Of course, there are Spurs fans who will think we should pick Wemby from #4, so expecting average people to understand the lottery is kind of futile.

[DPG21920]

Survive picks 7 & 6 and we can start to hope. Either way, chips fall where there may.

[MultiTroll]

https://i.imgur.com/6f8YDQ5.png

With the 2nd worst record, the Spurs highest percentage would be landing at #5 with a possibility of dropping to #6.

With the 3rd worst record, the Spurs highest percentage is landing at #6 and opens up the possibility of falling all the way to #7. As it stands, we have a 40% chance of finishing top 3, and a 33% chance of ending up with 6 or 7.

Basically, getting the 2nd worst record gives San Antonio a 13% higher percentage of NOT dropping out of the top 5....which, as stated is roughly the same percentage we have to nab Wendy.

The ship has basically already sailed, but when we are arguing percentage points then 13% is NOT insignificant.
Dex

Houston leading at halftime vs Charlotte. :bang
Altho i fully expect Houston to tank the 4th qtr big time. :)

[DPG21920]

Unlucky that Spurs beat Kings AND Dallas game is now meaningless and Dallas is tanking. SMH…

[exstatic]

Unlucky that Spurs beat Kings AND Dallas game is now meaningless and Dallas is tanking. SMH…
Dallas just beat Sacto on Wednesday. That would have been an easy game to dump. They’re just mid.

[scott]

Dallas has pivoted and it clearly tanking now. I though the win over the Kings signaled they wanted the Play-In, but someone somewhere made an executive decision.

[scott]

This is the kind of shit Pop used to get fined for lol

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Apr 7

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2528210.png&h=96&w=96&scale=crop

Tim Hardaway Jr.SFStatusOut
Hardaway will miss Friday's game versus the Bulls due to left ankle soreness.



(https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2528210/tim-hardaway-jr)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/2960236.png&h=96&w=96&scale=crop

Maxi KleberPFStatusOut
Kleber (hamstring) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Bulls.



(https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2960236/maxi-kleber)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/3058254.png&h=96&w=96&scale=crop

Christian WoodFStatusOut
Wood has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Bulls due to rest purposes.



(https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3058254/christian-wood)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/4432811.png&h=96&w=96&scale=crop

Josh GreenSGStatusOut
Green has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Bulls for rest purposes.



(https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4432811/josh-green)

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nba/players/full/6442.png&h=96&w=96&scale=crop

Kyrie IrvingPGStatusOut
Irving (foot) has been ruled out for Friday's game against Chicago.





(https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6442/kyrie-irving)

[MultiTroll]

This is the kind of shit Pop used to get fined for lol

Dallas Mavericks Injuries
Ditto the Heat today.
100 Tanker, all starters out.

[MultiTroll]

Rockets 99
Hornets 91

Can't wait to see these last 6 minutes. :corn:

Do You believe in Miracles? (Al Michaels voice).
No, i don't. I expect Houston to go full tank like last nights 119-110 lead vs the Spurs tanked away.

[Mr. Body]

Portland's been sitting players blatantly for a while.

Dallas should have done the same.

Only the Spurs got fined for whatever the eff.

[scott]

Ditto the Heat today.
100 Tanker, all starters out.

So interesting the Heat are taking, can't they still move into 6th?

[scott]

In case there were any doubts to whether the Mavs are now in full tank mode.

1644507360025772032

[MultiTroll]

Rockets 108
Hornets 101

1:50 left
https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.8e2c23ef9d0856562973e2f948a1f9a5?rik=np3Nllr9r77 2WQ&riu=http%3a%2f%2fwww.azquotes.com%2fpicture-quotes%2fquote-do-you-believe-in-miracles-al-michaels-54-98-12.jpg&ehk=5MTBfUDESCzBap2eP3plNzoLJo24chFyPIRvbycd0f8%3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0

[Mr. Body]

Dallas probably cost themselves around an 30% increased chance at the top 4 because they were pushing for the playoffs. Instead Portland will get rewarded for doing the same gross shit they do every year.

[Seventyniner]

Rockets won, putting them back in jeopardy of tying the Spurs if Dallas can't "win" the tank-off in the finale.

[MultiTroll]

SVI MYKHAILIUK with 2 trey attempts for the tie and OT.
Brick Brick.

Rockets win! Rockets win!

[Thomas82]

Houston actually pulled it off!! Whoa!!

[exstatic]

:lol Thank you Houston, for putting this forum into turmoil, for the third time over the benefits of positions 2 and 3.

[rascal]

:lol Thank you Houston, for putting this forum into turmoil, for the third time over the benefits of positions 2 and 3.

I want to see that coin flip

[MultiTroll]

So interesting the Heat are taking, can't they still move into 6th?
Yep.
Weird game for the Heat to decide to throw.
Could have stayed 1/2 game behind the Nets for 6th.
And the Nets were virtually guaranteed a win as they are played the 100 tanking Orlando Magic.

[Spurs Homer]

lol rockettes

[exstatic]

I want to see that coin flip

You probably never will.

[John B]

Dallas got eliminated in the playoffs with lost to Bulls. They’d be all out to tank now to protect that 10th place

[rascal]

Spurs play Dallas at 3:30 pm Sunday while Houston will be playing Washington at 1:00 pm
so The Spurs will know Houston's final record before their last game.

[rascal]

Dallas got eliminated in the playoffs with lost to Bulls. They’d be all out to tank now to protect that 10th place

How so? They are only one game back of OKC.

[Ariel]

Spurs play Dallas at 3:30 pm Sunday while Houston will be playing Washington at 1:00 pm
so The Spurs will know Houston's final record before their last game.
Dallas gave away today's game when they still had a solid chance of making the play in. I think the only way we lose on sunday is if Pop & Brown to suit up to play. And even then I'm not sure.

[MultiTroll]

Dallas wants the Play In or Dallas wants the 10th pick?

Does anyone really know?
Is it wrapped up in Flat Earthers mind?

[scott]

How so? They are only one game back of OKC.

OKC has the tie-breaker. Mavs are officially eliminated.

[Ariel]

So far it's like this:
1st rounder: finish 2/3, pick will be in the 1-7 range
2nd round (own): pick will be in the 32-33 range
2nd round (Toronto): provided the Lakers win the game they're playing right now (up 7 going into the 4th against an all scrub Phoenix team), pick will be in the 41-45 range (so far OKC & Chicago with 39 wins, Toronto & Minnesota with 40 wins, and Atlanta with 41 wins).

[MultiTroll]

I want to see that coin flip


You probably never will.
How disappointed are you going to be if the Spurs make it to the coin flip and win for #2?

[John B]

How so? They are only one game back of OKC.

Both only got 1 game left. In the event Dallas wins, and OKC losses, OKC has the tie advantage securing them the 10th place.

[MultiTroll]

2nd round (Toronto): provided the Lakers win the game they're playing right now (up 7 going into the 4th against an all scrub Phoenix team),.
We get that pick if the ABC/Disney Lakers complete the win tonight?

[Ariel]

We get that pick if the ABC/Disney Lakers complete the win tonight?
If they win they'll be at 42 wins and Toronto can't catch them with 1 game left, so it's 45 at worst (depending on the last game). If they lose it could be 46 also.
Toronto is playing their last game against Milwaukee, who will surely rest their starters, so I think that will leave them at 41 wins. That would put them above OKC & Chicago, making picks 41 & 42 unreachable.
Atlanta plays Boston and they likely rest their starters, so they should win. That would put them at 42 wins, also making pick 45 out of reach.
Minnesota has 2 games left: us & NOLA. I'm thinking they win the former and lose the latter, so they'll also be at 41 wins. That would have us tied for 43/44, which is my best guess at the moment.

[Mr. Body]

Where were the Raptors when we made the trade? The SRP was around 38 or so? They moved up into playoff range, at least. Not sure if overall it was the right move, but they didn't give up too much for Poeltl.

[Ariel]

Where were the Raptors when we made the trade? The SRP was around 38 or so? They moved up into playoff range, at least. Not sure if overall it was the right move, but they didn't give up too much for Poeltl.
39 if I remember correctly. They climbed up 5 spots or so. Still, it's next years' first rounder that really matters. And things could change drastically for them this offseason (for better or worse), so we shall see.

[MultiTroll]

If they win they'll be at 42 wins and Toronto can't catch them with 1 game left, so it's 45 at worst (depending on the last game).
So we're getting Torontos pick, that been decided, right?
It's just a matter of 41-45?

[Ariel]

So we're getting Torontos pick, that been decided, right?
It's just a matter of 41-45?
The 2nd rounder, yes (on top of our own). Plus next year's first rounder (protected 6-6-6).

[MultiTroll]

Minnesota.
What is their motivation for Saturdays game?

[Ariel]

Minnesota.
What is their motivation for Saturdays game?
If the Lakers win today they can't reach 8th place, so home court for the first play in game.
Wait... they can still reach 42 wins and I'm not sure on the tiebreaker. Have to check it out.
OK, tiebreaker favors Minnesota, so technically they could still reach 8 if they win out and Lakers lose to tanking Utah (unlikely). Either way they should be motivated to win against us.

[MultiTroll]

If the Lakers win today they can't reach 8th place, so home court for the first play in game.
Wait... they can still reach 42 wins and I'm not sure on the tiebreaker. Have to check it out.
And as you're looking it's realized, motivation? Who the H knows what's going on with some these teams.
Logic would have had Houston 100% tanking today.
Heat trying to win.
Dallas goes ahead and wins vs the Kings, then WTF tanks todays game.
And more.

[Ariel]

And as you're looking it's realized, motivation? Who the H knows what's going on with some these teams.
Logic would have had Houston 100% tanking today.
Heat trying to win.
Dallas goes ahead and wins vs the Kings, then WTF tanks todays game.
And more.
Silas is getting booted from Houston after season ends. If he's got any pride and working brain cells, he should go all out regardless of what management thinks.

[MultiTroll]

Silas is getting booted from Houston after season ends. If he's got any pride and working brain cells, he should go all out regardless of what management thinks.
:lol You mean like do a Louvie Smith?
Hey he already did today. Finish the job?

Well i guess to do a Louvie he would have had to start winning about 5 games ago.

[Gagnrath]

People freaking out about a 7% chance at #7, when we have DOUBLE that chance, 14%, to nab Wemby.

That's if you believe that silver has honest lotto balls instead of keeping Stern's fixed ones.

[exstatic]

Where were the Raptors when we made the trade? The SRP was around 38 or so? They moved up into playoff range, at least. Not sure if overall it was the right move, but they didn't give up too much for Poeltl.

That 1-6 protected Toronto FRP was gold when you consider that outside of the Durant trade, the only other FRP that changed hands at the deadline was the one shot 2027 Laker 1-4 FRP sent to Utah.

[exstatic]

That's if you believe that silver has honest lotto balls instead of keeping Stern's fixed ones.

It would be nearly impossible to fix. You don’t draw out A ball for a team, you draw a four ball number combination that may belong to any team. The NBA won’t know the four number combinations in advance.

[Killakobe81]

Spurs play Dallas at 3:30 pm Sunday while Houston will be playing Washington at 1:00 pm
so The Spurs will know Houston's final record before their last game.

Thought nba moved all games to similar start times that have standings of implications? But maybe that was based in rumor, not facts.

[Mr. Body]

Thought nba moved all games to similar start times that have standings of implications? But maybe that was based in rumor, not facts.

Looks like what they do in soccer leagues - play all the games at the same time to not impact results. In basketball, though, it looks a little silly.

[MultiTroll]

Thought nba moved all games to similar start times that have standings of implications? But maybe that was based in rumor, not facts.
Not as of now at least on NBA.com
Todays 3 games are basically aligned, however:
12:30 Denver can still be caught by Memphis. So it's not a nothingburger game. But it's not affected by any other games so yeah, no need to align.
1
1

However, Sunday the NBA did NOT align games, unless their website is lagging.
Rockets at 1 Eastern
Spurs at 3:30 Eastern

[MultiTroll]

Silas is getting booted from Houston after season ends. If he's got any pride and working brain cells, he should go all out regardless of what management thinks.
Ariel any more on this Silas getting booted / looking to F Houston Louvie Smith style?

[cjw]

Ariel any more on this Silas getting booted / looking to F Houston Louvie Smith style?

Lovie Smith did a GOAT troll job on the front office. That’s why you don’t keep around a coach if you KNOW you’re going to fire them in the NFL (especially if you don’t have a franchise QB to develop). They should have replaced him with a lackey like Indianapolis did with Reich.

Houston winning here would be stupid, but result only comes into play if both they and Spurs don’t make top four.

[spurs10]

Question, I asked in the game thread, does Dallas have to lose to stay out of the play-in or has OKC clinch the 10 spot? They came out in public saying they were trying to lose and Cuban got hit with a huge fine.

[spurs10]

Question, I asked in the game thread, does Dallas have to lose to stay out of the play-in or has OKC clinch the 10 spot? They came out in public saying they were trying to lose and Cuban got hit with a huge fine. Just saw OKC clinched a play-in spot. Good!

[Ariel]

Question, I asked in the game thread, does Dallas have to lose to stay out of the play-in or has OKC clinch the 10 spot? They came out in public saying they were trying to lose and Cuban got hit with a huge fine.

OKC owns the tiebreaker for the play in, so Dallas is out of the playoffs. However, what they want is to remain at the #10 worst record, so they maximize their chances at keeping their pick (they traded it to NY for Porzingis, but it's top 10 protected). If they win, they give OKC and Chicago the chance to tie them with a loss. Currently Dallas' chance at keeping the pick stands at 79.8%. In a 2-way tie their chances drop to 44.15% (45% decrease) and in a 3-way tie their chances drop to 32.13% (60% decrease). That's a HUGE incentive to lose.

[Ariel]

1644817514667425797
https://twitter.com/MavsPR/status/1644817514667425797

Luka Dončić (left thigh injury recovery), Kyrie Irving (right foot injury recovery), Reggie Bullock (rest), Josh Green (rest), Tim Hardaway Jr. (left ankle soreness) and Maxi Kleber (right hamstring injury recovery) will all miss tomorrow night's game against the Spurs.
They're SO STUPID that they can't even come up with a reasonable excuse other than REST for a couple of players who aren't going to play again for 6 months. Given Kidd's acknowledgment that it was a matter of FO calling the season off, the League should ask for medical records to back up their claims and punish them if proven false. Idiots, they deserve to have their pick forfeited.

[Ariel]

Tomorrow it's more important for Dallas to lose (they could drop from 80% chance of keeping the pick to 45% or 32%) than it is for the Spurs (merely a tiebreaker to jump from 5 to 6 or 6 to 7). With that said:
Houston plays Washington, who has 1 more win than Indiana and Orlando. Orlando especially plays Miami, who has clinched their 7th seed and has no incentive to play their starters. So it could be another tank off like us vs Dallas. If Orlando wins, that puts pressure on Washington to lose, which increases Houston's chances of winning. I know, my head is spinning too. :lol We shall see tomorrow.

[Spurs Homer]

Wizards sitting out everyone…

houston only two out


NJURY REPORT:

WIZARDS:
Deni Avdija (left elbow bursitis -- out)
Bradley Beal (left knee soreness -- out)
Daniel Gafford (right ankle soreness -- out)
Jay Huff (G League; two-way -- out)
Kyle Kuzma (right ankle sprain -- out)
Monte Morris (right ankle soreness -- out)
Kristaps Porzingis (non-COVID illness -- out)
Delon Wright (right knee soreness -- out)

ROCKETS:
Kevin Porter Jr. (right knee soreness -- out)
Jae'Sean Tate (left knee soreness -- out)

[MultiTroll]

Tomorrow it's more important for Dallas to lose (they could drop from 80% chance of keeping the pick to 45% or 32%) than it is for the Spurs (merely a tiebreaker to jump from 5 to 6 or 6 to 7). With that said:
Houston plays Washington,


Wizards sitting out everyone…

houston only two out
Just can't see how the Mavs could lose. I would think Cuban has ordered it and really he should.
As much as I've burned on Pop, i could see if this game turns into a total clown show then just go ahead and win.
OTOH remember when Pop had the Spurs intentionally foul Shaq the 1st play of the season?
Tomorow would be epic if Pop threw back a couple of glasses of wine and just let the game be a complete, 100% entertaining tank show. :hungry::lol

So realistically our best chance is to have Silas want to Louvie the Rockets?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I image when the NBA arranged all those final day games they anticipated a wonderful fight for play off and play in positions. Instead they’ll get mad tanking and few players of significance even suiting up.

[Thomas82]

Looks like the Rockets don't want to win today. The Wizards are sitting all of their key players and still taking it to them.

[slick'81]

Looks like the Rockets don't want to win today. The Wizards are sitting all of their key players and still taking it to them.


there is literally no point for hou or sa to win

[Thomas82]

there is literally no point for hou or sa to win

I would imagine Stephen Silas wanted to stick it to the Rockets Lovie Smith-style on his way out.

[Spurs Homer]

Just can't see how the Mavs could lose. I would think Cuban has ordered it and really he should.
As much as I've burned on Pop, i could see if this game turns into a total clown show then just go ahead and win.
OTOH remember when Pop had the Spurs intentionally foul Shaq the 1st play of the season?
Tomorow would be epic if Pop threw back a couple of glasses of wine and just let the game be a complete, 100% entertaining tank show. :hungry::lol

So realistically our best chance is to have Silas want to Louvie the Rockets?

rockets tied game-

geez

cant get any closer lol

[JPB]

Lol HOU winning.

[LeBowen]

Release the Boban!

[Ariel]

Go Silas! :lol

[Spurs Homer]

Rockets up

[MultiTroll]

Wow Silas did it.

[Spurs Homer]

Wow Silas did it.

not yet

[Spurs Homer]

Final

houston wins lol

[Ariel]

Bad results for Toronto's 2nd rounder because they won and Atlanta lost, requiring a coin flip to decide the 2-way tie between 43 and 44. If Minnesota loses to New Orleans it will be a 3-way tie to decide 43/44/45.

[horseshue]

Rockets did their part. Now it's necessary to not fuck this up. :lol

[Ariel]

Rockets did their part. Now it's necessary to not fuck this up. :lol
Won't be easy. Dallas will probably score in their own hoop if they have to.

[adonis827]

what happens if Spurs win?

[Mr. Body]

what happens if Spurs win?

The season is over.

[exstatic]

Bad results for Toronto's 2nd rounder because they won and Atlanta lost, requiring a coin flip to decide the 2-way tie between 43 and 44. If Minnesota loses to New Orleans it will be a 3-way tie to decide 43/44/45.

Actually, the coin flip is for the first round picks, and the second round will be in inverse order. We need Toronto to lose badly on the FRP flips.

[scott]

Is the coin flip between SA and HOU done before the Lottery, or only if both teams do not make the top 4?

[Mr. Body]

Is the coin flip between SA and HOU done before the Lottery, or only if both teams do not make the top 4?

Before the lottery, because they need it to assign the odds.

[Ariel]

Actually, the coin flip is for the first round picks, and the second round will be in inverse order. We need Toronto to lose badly on the FRP flips.
Sure. I didn't say it was a DIFFERENT coin flip, I said one was required and pointed the second rounders because only those are relevant to us. But for practical purposes, it wouldn't matter whether it's the same coin flip or a different one, point remains you have equal odds at each of the slots you're tied for.

[Ariel]

Is the coin flip between SA and HOU done before the Lottery, or only if both teams do not make the top 4?
It's after the regular season ends and before the lottery takes place. Usually a week or so after regular season.

[Arcadian]

Last place in the west secured! :toast

[Ariel]

Bad results for Toronto's 2nd rounder because they won and Atlanta lost, requiring a coin flip to decide the 2-way tie between 43 and 44. If Minnesota loses to New Orleans it will be a 3-way tie to decide 43/44/45.
Minnesota wins, Toronto (Spurs get the pick) is tied with Atlanta (Portland gets the pick) for 43/44. So it's: 2/3 (pre-lottery) + 32/33 + 43/44

[DPG21920]

Is the coin flip between SA and HOU done before the Lottery, or only if both teams do not make the top 4?

I don think there’s a set schedule as weird as that is lol. They have not announced when the coin toss will take place AFAIK

[tbdog]

I thought bottom 3 get equal odds for top 1?

[Ariel]

I thought bottom 3 get equal odds for top 1?
Yup

[JPB]

I thought bottom 3 get equal odds for top 1?

They do. 2 and 3 have just different odds for 5 and 6, while 2 can't get lower than 6 and 3 lower than 7.

[DPG21920]

I thought bottom 3 get equal odds for top 1?

They do. They get equal odds for top 4 actually. It’s 5th - 7th where it starts to matter.

[barakz21]

Not that I’m complaining, but what with Houston coming up with these late wins?

[slick'81]

#2 is ours baaaaaby!!! Atleast in the regular season :lol

[Mr. Body]

Not that I’m complaining, but what with Houston coming up with these late wins?

I think they did the same last year? When it no longer matters, bad teams and players do better.

[exstatic]

I thought bottom 3 get equal odds for top 1?

They do, but 2 can only drop to 6 in the worst case, and 3 can drop to 7. That’s what all the fucking hair pulling and gnashing of teeth is about.

[Degoat]

Everytime I go to Tankathon for shits and giggles to simulate the lottery selection the spurs fall lol

[Mr. Body]

Everytime I go to Tankathon for shits and giggles to simulate the lottery selection the spurs fall lol

They're almost guaranteed to fall. They only have slightly over a fifty percent chance to stay in the top four alone which means at two or three even in that window they're falling. In almost every scenario the Spurs will drop spots.

[barakz21]

I think they did the same last year? When it no longer matters, bad teams and players do better.

Huh. Seems weird, that a team that’s purposely been tanking the entire season goes out and gets wins this late in the season.

[BackHome]

I think that once they could not catch Detroit for the worse record it didn't really matter as long as they stayed in top 3 which they are no matter the late wins

[TXstbobcat]

Curious if anyone knows what day the coin flip will take place for the tiebreaker between Houston and San Antonio.

[tbdog]

They do, but 2 can only drop to 6 in the worst case, and 3 can drop to 7. That’s what all the fucking hair pulling and gnashing of teeth is about.

If Spurs miss top 2, it's a failure of a season.

[Mr. Body]

If Spurs miss top 2, it's a failure of a season.

Lol

[spurs10]

Curious if anyone knows what day the coin flip will take place for the tiebreaker between Houston and San Antonio. I don't know, but would think it would happen when the lottery happens. There will be a lot of coins tosses going on whenever it is.

[BatManu20]

Everytime I go to Tankathon for shits and giggles to simulate the lottery selection the spurs fall lol

Same. Prepare for the meltdown on here when Spurs fall to 5-7 lol.

[exstatic]

If Spurs miss top 2, it's a failure of a season.

Exactly, which is why pre lottery 2 or3 doesn’t matter to me.

[Mr. Body]

Same. Prepare for the meltdown on here when Spurs fall to 5-7 lol.

Yeah, because people are morons. They are most likely to fall in that range. They're still going to get a good player. It's called a lottery for a reason. Move on.

[Ariel]

Yeah, because people are morons. They are most likely to fall in that range. They're still going to get a good player. It's called a lottery for a reason. Move on.
It's slightly more likely we make top 4 than not, but it's almost a toss up (52% vs 48%). The job is done, now it's praying and waiting and praying and waiting...

[K...]

you might think the lottery odds are unfair to the spurs but i think it's actually better, because the spurs don't need to tank every year to get a high pick. being in the 5 to 12 range will recharge the talent. I know people are hoping for the silver bullet blue lock player, but tanking is hard and the spurs will build brick by brick the right way

[Mr. Body]

It's kind of rich for a fanbase that won two of the biggest lotteries in league history against very long odds and only in the first year of 'tanking' in each of those years to get upset if they lose the lottery this year.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

It's kind of rich for a fanbase that won two of the biggest lotteries in league history against very long odds and only in the first year of 'tanking' in each of those years to get upset if they lose the lottery this year.

tbf wmby better have a votive candle lighted and be praying the rosary he ends up in SA and not houston or detroit

[TD 21]

It's kind of rich for a fanbase that won two of the biggest lotteries in league history against very long odds and only in the first year of 'tanking' in each of those years to get upset if they lose the lottery this year.

If the league hadn't allowed the biggest screw job in history to go down five years ago and/or had rewarded the Spurs at some point in the previous 3 lotteries, I suspect most rational people wouldn't have the feeling of being "owed".

Especially considering this league has a long history of, when franchises fall on hard times for things they had little to no control over, magically having lottery luck occur in short order.

[Mr. Body]

It's slightly more likely we make top 4 than not, but it's almost a toss up (52% vs 48%). The job is done, now it's praying and waiting and praying and waiting...

I meant that if they are #2 or #3 worst record after the coin flip, they are likely to drop either way.

Number 2 worst team has a 14.0% chance at #1 and a 13.4% chance at #2. So what is, that, like a 73% chance of dropping?

Number 3 worst team has the same chances at #1 and #2 and then a 12.7% chance of staying at #3. They actually have a less chance of dropping, at like 61%.

[scott]

I meant that if they are #2 or #3 worst record after the coin flip, they are likely to drop either way.

Number 2 worst team has a 14.0% chance at #1 and a 13.4% chance at #2. So what is, that, like a 73% chance of dropping?

Number 3 worst team has the same chances at #1 and #2 and then a 12.7% chance of staying at #3. They actually have a less chance of dropping, at like 61%.

The burden of being at the top of the mountain (in this case, the lottery mountain) is that there is only one way to go: down.

[scott]

Rather than thinking in terms of "dropping" from picks 1, 2 or 3, it is better to just assume the 1, 2 and 3 slots are picking 4th (which is roughly the expected value of their slots). In that case, there is a 52% chance of staying put or improving, and a 48% of dropping. There is no "dropping from 1" - because even with the #1 slot, you don't have 1 until you win the lotto, which is precisely the point. Fans naturally want to view it as "Dropping from 2 to 5", but that's not really the right way to view it.

[JPB]

They do, but 2 can only drop to 6 in the worst case, and 3 can drop to 7. That’s what all the fucking hair pulling and gnashing of teeth is about.

And when draft day will come, everyone will eventually be very happy that spurs got the 5 or 6 spot instead of 7 so they can draft THAT player who wouldn't have been available at 7.

[exstatic]

And when draft day will come, everyone will eventually be very happy that spurs got the 5 or 6 spot instead of 7 so they can draft THAT player who wouldn't have been available at 7.

I don’t think anyone will be happy with 5,6, or 7.

[Dejounte]

I don’t think anyone will be happy with 5,6, or 7.

The only guys I’m mildly interested in in that range are Cam, Keyonte, and Jarace. If all of those guys are gone by 7, it’s like whatever, don’t care. Anyone who pretends they were disappointed their guy was missed by one pick would only be genuine if they were hyping them up right now and all the way to draft night. The truth is, no one is doing that.

poster xyz today: wow! What a shitshow after the 2nd pick! I’ve looked at all these guys and none of them look good! We better land Wemba or there’s no one else good.

same poster after draft night: oMg mY gUy wAs sElEctEd oNe pIcK beFoRe uS. He iS goNnA bE a FraNcHisE pLaYeR IvE bEeN waTcHiNg hIm foR dEcAdEs whEn hE waS iN hiS moThErs WoMb aNd hIs faThErs NuTsaCk

[exstatic]

The only guys I’m mildly interested in in that range are Cam, Keyonte, and Jarace. If all of those guys are gone by 7, it’s like whatever, don’t care. Anyone who pretends they were disappointed their guy was missed by one pick would only be genuine if they were hyping them up right now and all the way to draft night. The truth is, no one is doing that.

poster xyz today: wow! What a shitshow after the 2nd pick! I’ve looked at all these guys and none of them look good! We better land Wemba or there’s no one else good.

same poster after draft night: oMg mY gUy wAs sElEctEd oNe pIcK beFoRe uS. He iS goNnA bE a FraNcHisE pLaYeR IvE bEeN waTcHiNg hIm foR dEcAdEs whEn hE waS iN hiS moThErs WoMb aNd hIs faThErs NuTsaCk

I guess my point was that if we win the coin flip, but draw #6 in the lottery, I don’t see anyone being grateful or relieved that we weren’t able to drop to #7 because we won the flip. This forum will yowl like coyotes whatever the pick if it isn’t 1,2,3.

[Mr. Body]

I don’t think anyone will be happy with 5,6, or 7.

I will. The players I actually want are there.

[Dejounte]

I guess my point was that if we win the coin flip, but draw #6 in the lottery, I don’t see anyone being grateful or relieved that we weren’t able to drop to #7 because we won the flip. This forum will yowl like coyotes whatever the pick if it isn’t 1,2,3.
Yes, that’s another way to look at it. But we have the same primary point which is no one genuinely cares about the players after 2 or 3 or else they would be hyping them up more today.

[Mr. Body]

Yes, that’s another way to look at it. But we have the same primary point which is no one genuinely cares about the players after 2 or 3 or else they would be hyping them up more today.

As we get closer to the draft we're going to hear a lot about how like gods Amen and Ausar Thompson are.

[Dejounte]

As we get closer to the draft we're going to hear a lot about how like gods Amen and Ausar Thompson are.

No matter how much I watch of these two, it just doesn’t click. I dive in again and again and I can’t help but see a Blake Wesley rookie year deer in headlights future for them. The athleticism looks great, but the feel for the game like what I see with Scoot is severely lacking. On a side note: from what I’ve seen so far, Ausar looks better than Amen.

[exstatic]

Yes, that’s another way to look at it. But we have the same primary point which is no one genuinely cares about the players after 2 or 3 or else they would be hyping them up more today.

I’ve been in on Hendricks since December, and really like Black, too. I’d be good with picking either of them at 5-7. I know you don’t agree. Just stating my preferences.

[exstatic]

No matter how much I watch of these two, it just doesn’t click. I dive in again and again and I can’t help but see a Blake Wesley rookie year deer in headlights future for them. The athleticism looks great, but the feel for the game like what I see with Scoot is severely lacking. On a side note: from what I’ve seen so far, Ausar looks better than Amen.

Their athleticism is also being displayed against high schoolers. It’ll be a different story in the NBA. It’s a very rare specimen that can purely lean on athleticism without a shred of fundamentals. OTE also gets a ton of fast breaks,which they won’t see in the NBA. Basically subtract about half of their fastbreak highlights, and that’s what you’re left with.

[Dejounte]

I’ve been in on Hendricks since December, and really like Black, too. I’d be good with picking either of them at 5-7. I know you don’t agree. Just stating my preferences.

But you wouldn’t meltdown over those guys if we missed out on them (unless you felt they were surefire franchise players), would you? Like I said, I have three guys i’m mildly interested in but I wouldn’t cry if they’re not there because even I’m not that 100% sold on them.

[Ddm5]

So anyone know when this infamous Tie-Breaking coin flip happens??

[venitian navigator]

I frankly don't understand how we could go to 7...alsi.if we lose the coin flip. Let's say,for example, the draft is lucky for number 4,5 and 6...in this case Detroit goes number 4, Houston 5 and we go to 6...snd that's the worst case scenario for us for what I know about the draft... So we will chose no lower than 6...

[exstatic]

I frankly don't understand how we could go to 7...alsi.if we lose the coin flip. Let's say,for example, the draft is lucky for number 4,5 and 6...in this case Detroit goes number 4, Houston 5 and we go to 6...snd that's the worst case scenario for us for what I know about the draft... So we will chose no lower than 6...

Detroit can drop to 5. The lottery, since 2019, has been for the top FOUR positions.

[venitian navigator]

Ok I just see the rules have changed and the top 4 (not top 3 like before) are chosen via pong pong balls...

[slick'81]

Keeping the hope high that fate is on the spurs side for that top3 pick :hungry:

[JPB]

Yes, that’s another way to look at it. But we have the same primary point which is no one genuinely cares about the players after 2 or 3 or else they would be hyping them up more today.

Hum.. Where have you been the last two months? There are plenty of guys who said who they would like after 3. And why should anyone make a final decision now? A lot of things, information and comparison will circulate until the draft where many people will have a guy they'd prefer. Hell, many GMs still don't even know now who they'll pick.

And I personnaly stopped trying to understand how some people can say it doesn't make a difference if you get 5 or 7...

[Dejounte]

Hum.. Where have you been the last two months? There are plenty of guys who said who they would like after 3. And why should anyone make a final decision now? A lot of things, information and comparison will circulate until the draft where many people will have a guy they'd prefer. Hell, many GMs still don't even know now who they'll pick.

And I personnaly stopped trying to understand how some people can say it doesn't make a difference if you get 5 or 7...

Aside from combine results (which the players in that range probably wont participate in) there arent any more games for these guys to play for them to be vaulted from “guy I like” to “clear cut sure-fire thing”. I explained this to ex: there may be guys people might like right now, but no one on here is being bold enough to proclaim any of them as can’t miss prospects. That’s my point.

[exstatic]

Aside from combine results (which the players in that range probably wont participate in) there arent any more games for these guys to play for them to be vaulted from “guy I like” to “clear cut sure-fire thing”. I explained this to ex: there may be guys people might like right now, but no one on here is being bold enough to proclaim any of them as can’t miss prospects. That’s my point.

If you’re talking in terms of can’t miss prospects, the terminology of players, pre-draft, there is only one in this draft, Wemby. If you’re talking possible future stars/superstars, there could be a few. Even Kawhi was never labeled can’t miss. If he were, we never could have traded for him at 15. You can have flaws that will lead you to starter level, rotation level, or even busting, or you can eliminate them, and be a star/superstar, but only Wemby is a can’t miss, if healthy. Everyone else has warts of one kind or other that could lead to nasty downsides.

[Dejounte]

If you’re talking in terms of can’t miss prospects, the terminology of players, pre-draft, there is only one in this draft, Wemby. If you’re talking possible future stars/superstars, there could be a few. Even Kawhi was never labeled can’t miss. If he were, we never could have traded for him at 15. You can have flaws that will lead you to starter level, rotation level, or even busting, or you can eliminate them, and be a star/superstar, but only Wemby is a can’t miss, if healthy. Everyone else has warts of one kind or other that could lead to nasty downsides.

I think I’m being taken too literal with my posts here which granted, it’s a very nuanced topic. When I say “can’t miss”, I don’t mean players who by consensus, are destined to be great. It doesn’t mean either that those players who aren’t viewed as such means they don’t become stars. The keyword here is consensus. What I’m making a point with is how the same fans who outrage later aren’t really being rational when the basis of their judgment is centered around their personal preference with prospects they’re barely genuinely invested in.

[JPB]

I think I’m being taken too literal with my posts here which granted, it’s a very nuanced topic. When I say “can’t miss”, I don’t mean players who by consensus, are destined to be great. It doesn’t mean either that those players who aren’t viewed as such means they don’t become stars. The keyword here is consensus. What I’m making a point with is how the same fans who outrage later aren’t really being rational when the basis of their judgment is centered around their personal preference with prospects they’re barely genuinely invested in.

We can agree with that, but that's exactly what people also do when they say there's no difference between 5,6 and 7... Are they more rational and genuinely invested in the whole rookie class to be able to definitively affirm that? Ofc not. They don't really know either, there's no guru in this forum.

When I say you'd better like #5 than # 7, I'm mostly thinking as a GM who will have to make the choice. Because for sure, no one here will have to... And all people do is assuming or guessing with a more or less educated opinion. Everyone... And that's precisely because I don't pretend to have the ultimate knowledge about all these young guys that I can't and would never say there's no difference between 5, 6, 7 like nobody here decently can, which is at the end of the day also a personal opinion.

It's not because some people here don't see any difference that there's not, which could be perceived as a form of arrogance. They're not more rational, more invested or smarter than anybody else. They're just assuming. Wright and co. may actually see a difference and a guy they'd prefer in that zone and I' m sure if you ask them, they'd tell you they prefer 5 over 7.

[Uriel]

I have this strange, irrational feeling that the Spurs are going to win the coin toss but that the Rockets are going to land Wemby.

[exstatic]

I have this strange, irrational feeling that the Spurs are going to win the coin toss but that the Rockets are going to land Wemby.

That would be a travesty, and probably THE worst landing spot for him.

[T Park]

I have this strange, irrational feeling that the Spurs are going to win the coin toss but that the Rockets are going to land Wemby.

Well boo

[baseline bum]

I don’t think anyone will be happy with 5,6, or 7.

I'd honestly only be happy with #1 since Henderson and Miller both seem risky.

[baseline bum]

That would be a travesty, and probably THE worst landing spot for him.

Nah Portland would be the worst landing spot for him.

[exstatic]

I'd honestly only be happy with #1 since Henderson and Miller both seem risky.

There's trade back possibilities with them, as many teams will be enamored of one or both. I wouldn't hate trading back to 5,6,7 if we got another nice pick for it. If you get 4 or below, no one is trading up for that.

[rascal]

Nah Portland would be the worst landing spot for him.

Portland would be great. They would move right up in the West if they get him.
They already have a top league player and veterans and they are deeper than the Spurs who are rebuilding from ground zero with not a single all star caliber player on the team.

[rascal]

Outside of Houston the Spurs would be the 2nd worst team for Wemby.

Even Detroit would be better. They have a better core than the Spurs.

[baseline bum]

Portland would be great. They would move right up in the West if they get him.
They already have a top league player and veterans and they are deeper than the Spurs who are rebuilding from ground zero with not a single all star caliber player on the team.

And horrible trainers and medical staff.

[rascal]

And horrible trainers and medical staff.

Why you think that? You personally know the medical staff?

[baseline bum]

Why you think that? You personally know the medical staff?

It's just an accident how many star careers have died there.

[scott]

I think I’m being taken too literal with my posts here which granted, it’s a very nuanced topic. When I say “can’t miss”, I don’t mean players who by consensus, are destined to be great. It doesn’t mean either that those players who aren’t viewed as such means they don’t become stars. The keyword here is consensus. What I’m making a point with is how the same fans who outrage later aren’t really being rational when the basis of their judgment is centered around their personal preference with prospects they’re barely genuinely invested in.

I can think of lots of scenarios where I’m picking at 7 and I leave pissed off I wasn’t picking at 6 (for example, Cam goes at 6 and I’m left picking a Thompson). We didn’t tank for a season to get Anthony Black or Jarace Walker. We tanked to get our alpha.

However, I’m just not too concerned about the marginal difference in odds that result in picking at 6 or 7 to the point where I care if we finish with the #2 or #3 worst record and I’m loosing my shit that the Spurs won a few games at the end of the season.

The objective was to not to finish 6th instead of 7th, it was to ensure the highest odds of #1. With that accomplished, there is no longer any need for teeth gnashing. If you get pick 6 or pick 7 - it’s already a fucking disaster.

Cam is the only guy I see with alpha potential (of course, we never know when there is a Kawhi, Giannis or Jokic sitting there later). So in that vein, I’m going to be upset at the Lord of Ping Pong (who I assume is Christopher Walken) if we don’t get top 4. However, I won’t be mad at the Spurs. They did their part.

[rascal]

It's just an accident how many star careers have died there.

Name them all.

[rascal]

I can think of lots of scenarios where I’m picking at 7 and I leave pissed off I wasn’t picking at 6 (for example, Cam goes at 6 and I’m left picking a Thompson). We didn’t tank for a season to get Anthony Black or Jarace Walker. We tanked to get our alpha.

However, I’m just not too concerned about the marginal difference in odds that result in picking at 6 or 7 to the point where I care if we finish with the #2 or #3 worst record and I’m loosing my shit that the Spurs won a few games at the end of the season.

The objective was to not to finish 6th instead of 7th, it was to ensure the highest odds of #1. With that accomplished, there is no longer any need for teeth gnashing. If you get pick 6 or pick 7 - it’s already a fucking disaster.

Cam is the only guy I see with alpha potential (of course, we never know when there is a Kawhi, Giannis or Jokic sitting there later). So in that vein, I’m going to be upset at the Lord of Ping Pong (who I assume is Christopher Walken) if we don’t get top 4. However, I won’t be mad at the Spurs. They did their part.

Cam has a powerful game and can work on deficiencies like passing and finding the open man. He looks like Kawhi in his power game to the basket.

[exstatic]

Portland would be great. They would move right up in the West if they get him.
They already have a top league player and veterans and they are deeper than the Spurs who are rebuilding from ground zero with not a single all star caliber player on the team.

Their star player is 33. Wemby is 19. There isn’t a more clear case of ‘not on the right timeline’

[baseline bum]

Name them all.

Roy, Oden, Walton are their biggest failures

[exstatic]

Roy, Oden, Walton are their biggest failures

Sam Bowie. Darius Miles.

If Wemby goes there, he won’t last his rookie contract with that medical staff.

[rascal]

Roy, Oden, Walton are their biggest failures

All those were years ago.

[rascal]

Their star player is 33. Wemby is 19. There isn’t a more clear case of ‘not on the right timeline’

Wemby doesn't need a timeline. He's going to be good from the start.

[tonight...you]

Lillard hasn't been able to stay on the floor the past 4 years in a row and only has 3 years of playing a full season.
His first 3.
Zach Collins had crap surgery while there and couldn't gt beyond that dark cloud called Portland till he got here.

[rascal]

Roy, Oden, Walton are their biggest failures

Johnny Moore, David Robinson's back, James Silas knee injury,

go back far enough and you can find cases for every team.

[scott]

Johnny Moore, David Robinson's back, James Silas knee injury,

go back far enough and you can find cases for every team.

This is fun.

Johnny Moore: 520 career games, number retired.
David Robinson: 987 career games, NBA MVP, HOFer, 2x Champion, NBA 50 and 75 teams.
James Silas: 685 games played, 2x ABA all-star, 1x all-ABA first team, number retired.

Brandon Roy: 326 career games, 3x all-star, 1x All-NBA 2nd team, 2x All-NBA 3rd Team
Greg Oden: 105 career games
Bill Walton: 486 career games, NBA finals MVP, NBA MVP, HOFer, 2x Champion, NBA 50 and 75 teams

The point wasn’t that players get hurt or get old, it’s that Blazer’s guys have their career’s cut short. Sure enough, all three of those guys played less games than Moore, who played the fewest of the guys on the Spurs’ list you provided.

[scott]

For reference, Kawhi played 407 games for the Spurs alone. He’s at 628 and counting overall.

*All these game totals are regular season only.

[CGD]

Roy, Oden, Walton are their biggest failures

In fairness Roy and Walton were amazing before their injury luck. I bet Oden would have been decent too. It’s different than drafting poorly like a Thabeet or Olawakandi. Blazers just have crappy luck.

[scott]

In fairness Roy and Walton were amazing before their injury luck. I bet Oden would have been decent too. It’s different than drafting poorly like a Thabeet or Olawakandi. Blazers just have crappy luck.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that they weren’t good players, but rather than the Blazer’s medical staff has a long history of really good players career’s being cut short. Maybe it’s just bad luck, or maybe it’s the result of not investing in medical care for their players, idk.

[exstatic]

In fairness Roy and Walton were amazing before their injury luck. I bet Oden would have been decent too. It’s different than drafting poorly like a Thabeet or Olawakandi. Blazers just have crappy luck.

It’s not crap luck. It’s a crap medical staff.

[exstatic]

Wemby doesn't need a timeline. He's going to be good from the start.

And Dame will be done before he’s old enough to drink.

[BackHome]

I can think of lots of scenarios where I’m picking at 7 and I leave pissed off I wasn’t picking at 6 (for example, Cam goes at 6 and I’m left picking a Thompson). We didn’t tank for a season to get Anthony Black or Jarace Walker. We tanked to get our alpha.

However, I’m just not too concerned about the marginal difference in odds that result in picking at 6 or 7 to the point where I care if we finish with the #2 or #3 worst record and I’m loosing my shit that the Spurs won a few games at the end of the season.

The objective was to not to finish 6th instead of 7th, it was to ensure the highest odds of #1. With that accomplished, there is no longer any need for teeth gnashing. If you get pick 6 or pick 7 - it’s already a fucking disaster.

Cam is the only guy I see with alpha potential (of course, we never know when there is a Kawhi, Giannis or Jokic sitting there later). So in that vein, I’m going to be upset at the Lord of Ping Pong (who I assume is Christopher Walken) if we don’t get top 4. However, I won’t be mad at the Spurs. They did their part.

I agree I think Cam has the highest realistic ceiling past Wemb and maybe Henderson people forget he is still only 18 years old I think Miller will be turning 21 when season starts. They a lot of other guys that I think can make contributions in the early second they still gems to be found in the second.

[Dex]

All those were years ago.

What exactly have they done since then? They're just lucky Lillard is loyal, and even that's only been enough to make them a treadmill team.

LaMarcus had an okay run, but never got them over the hump and then walked.

[rascal]

Sam Bowie. Darius Miles.

If Wemby goes there, he won’t last his rookie contract with that medical staff.

Stop the nonsesne.

You have to do better than this.

[Degoat]

I go through this cycle every draft but honestly regardless of where our pick ends up, it’s always just great to add new young talent to the team tbh

[Ariel]

As we get closer to the draft we're going to hear a lot about how like gods Amen and Ausar Thompson are.
Amen and Ausar Thompson are the crypto currency of the draft: all hype, no substance behind. A honeypot for the incautious. They'll be on the Rockets or Blazers next year, maybe even Detroit.

[Ariel]

In fairness Roy and Walton were amazing before their injury luck. I bet Oden would have been decent too. It’s different than drafting poorly like a Thabeet or Olawakandi. Blazers just have crappy luck.
Oden and Roy had glaring red flags well before the draft which were not properly addressed before and handled afterwards. That's not bad luck, that's negligence if not worse.

[MultiTroll]

However, the league is not expected to break those ties until at least next Monday, April 17, because there are also ties between teams who will participate in this week’s play-in tournament.

[exstatic]

Yeah, the play in could sort some of this out.

[Ariel]

Anyone who pretends they were disappointed their guy was missed by one pick would only be genuine if they were hyping them up right now and all the way to draft night. The truth is, no one is doing that.
People have been talking about their favorite players for months, there's even a specific thread ("Draft projects to watch besides Wembanyama & Henderson (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=300849)")
with literally 76 pages of people doing exactly this.
As for reactions to the draft, falling to 6/7 and having your player taken ahead of you by the team picking before is just bad luck, very little you can do about it. Sometimes you can, like Dallas with Luka, but you can't take that for granted and hold it against the FO.
What would warrant a meltdown, IMO, is the Spurs landing 2/3/4 and picking someone like Nick Smith or GG Jackson "because they'd be a top 5 pick next year" :pctoss:vomit:
I've said like a dozen times who my picks would be, so I'm not going to repeat myself again here, but I just hope we take someone with some tangible floor and plausible upside, and avoid trying to look like a genius by taking on some obscure guy 20 spots before they were projected. As long as we don't pull some stupid BS like that, you have to accept whatever fate has in store for us.

[Dejounte]

I explained this in my posts after that. I will be more clear from the getgo next time:

in that 76 page thread, there are players people say they like after the second or third pick. But they aren’t players they love enough to be confident about a great outcome for their career that would justify an attachment (and outrage for being picked one pick earlier). In regards to you, I don’t think you have a player like I just described in that range— you have preferred a trade down which makes my above point valid.

[Uriel]

I have this strange, irrational feeling that the Spurs are going to win the coin toss but that the Rockets are going to land Wemby.
Posted this last month. So glad I was wrong and got it completely backwards.