2023-2024 roster : who is a keeper, who is gone ?

[Rocalcio]

The end of the season gave Pop the opportunity to play many young players, and it would be interesting to guess who will still be a Spur next season.

Here are the guys I’d like to see next season :

Sochan
Vassell
Johnson
Collins
Jones
Branham
Mamukelashvili
Bassey
Champagnie
Barlow
Wesley

I’m still intrigued by Langford, he was injured these last games but maybe a good Summer can help him secure his spot. But I’m not very confident about this…

I’d trade McDermott, Bates-Diop, Graham and Dieng.

[exstatic]

The end of the season gave Pop the opportunity to play many young players, and it would be interesting to guess who will still be a Spur next season.

Here are the guys I’d like to see next season :

Sochan
Vassell
Johnson
Collins
Jones
Branham
Bassey
Champagnie
Barlow
Wesley

I’m still intrigued by Langford, he was injured these last games but maybe a good Summer can help him secure his spot. But I’m not very confident about this…

I’d trade McDermott, Bates-Diop, Graham and Dieng.

Forget about Mamu?

KBD has played pretty darn well this year. If he doesn’t get a bag thrown at him, he should return. It will take a while to trade both McD and Graham, so plan on them being on the roster until February. Dieng has zero trade value, and should be allowed to roll off. Langford has been beyond mid. I’d be shocked if they even extend a qualifying offer. If we do trade back from a post lottery 2 or 3 position to get another FRP, he’s certainly gone.

[K...]

We just had this thread yesterday?. https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=301764&p=10882480#post10882480

Its the same thing! Td21 state of the spurs

[Rocalcio]

Forget about Mamu?

KBD has played pretty darn well this year. If he doesn’t get a bag thrown at him, he should return. It will take a while to trade both McD and Graham, so plan on them being on the roster until February. Dieng has zero trade value, and should be allowed to roll off. Langford has been beyond mid. I’d be shocked if they even extend a qualifying offer. If we do trade back from a post lottery 2 or 3 position to get another FRP, he’s certainly gone.


Yes sorry, I wanted to write his name properly and finally forgot about him, of course he’s a keeper.

[Rocalcio]

We just had this thread yesterday?. https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=301764&p=10882480#post10882480

Its the same thing! Td21 state of the spurs

Sorry I didn’t see it, I mean I looked à the most recent thread’s titles and I when I saw this title I didn’t think it would talk about this. I just wanted the last game to be done but had this thread in mind for a while.

[Mr. Body]

I could move on from Langford, but can see the team keeping him.

KBD seems like a near-lifer for the Spurs, although his playing time may dwindle and he could want to move on.

I see Graham and McDermott on the Poeltl/Richardson track, traded at the deadline next season. Supposedly their near-expiring contracts will be valuable, too.

[210]

Forget about Mamu?

KBD has played pretty darn well this year. If he doesn’t get a bag thrown at him, he should return. It will take a while to trade both McD and Graham, so plan on them being on the roster until February. Dieng has zero trade value, and should be allowed to roll off. Langford has been beyond mid. I’d be shocked if they even extend a qualifying offer. If we do trade back from a post lottery 2 or 3 position to get another FRP, he’s certainly gone.
KBD will definitely not get any bags thrown at him. He is who he is. A low to mid range salary player. That’s it. It’s really up to the spurs of they keep him.

[heyheymymy]

Tre Jones/Devonte' Graham/Blake Wesley
Devin Vassell/Malaki Branham
Keldon Johnson/Doug McDermott/Julian Champagnie
Jeremy Sochan/Sandro Mamukelashvili
Zach Collins/Charles Bassey

13. SA 2023 FRP (Victor Wembanyama/Taylor Hendricks/Jarace Walker/Anthony Black)
14. SA 2023 2RP (Julian Strawther/Trayce Jackson-Davis)
15. Free Agent (Naz Reid)
16. Two-Way (Dominck Barlow)
17. Two-Way (Luka Garza)

Khem Birch, KBD gone. Love someone's idea of Gorgui Dieng in a staff position with SA. SA trades away the TOR 2023 2RP.

[MultiTroll]

Pop is clearing cap space to give McDermott a max offer.

It's going to be tough with all the other NBA teams after Dougie, but i think CIA Pop will come thru again.

[stephen jackson]

Pop is clearing cap space to give McDermott a max offer.

It's going to be tough with all the other NBA teams after Dougie, but i think CIA Pop will come thru again.
He’s a vet so his max will be super high but I think he’s well worth it hopefully we get it done

[EricB]

Langford can't stay healthy, otherwise i think they would've prob negotiated something by now.

KBD should be thrown into the sun. Keep Barlowe, keep Mamu, everyone else adios.

[rascal]

So most everyone wants the spurs to bring back just about the entire team.

[rascal]

The Spurs are not good and need almost a complete overhaul of the roster.

Keep

Collins, Mamu, Sochan, Branham and Wesley
Move on from all the others

Package Vassell and/or Johnson and draft picks to get future potential all stars at the wings.
The players I'd keep are not all star level players but good role players/backups.

[rankingtear]

I don't see why Mamu, Wes and Barlow are keepers when they have zero trade value.

KBD , Tre and Julian are plug and play guys that you can front load and have positive value through their contract.

Bring Mamu and Wes and Barlow into camp and let them battle it out with the second rounder and undrafted guys.

[exstatic]

I don't see why Mamu, Wes and Barlow are keepers when they have zero trade value.

KBD , Tre and Julian are plug and play guys that you can front load and have positive value through their contract.

Bring Mamu and Wes and Barlow into camp and let them battle it out with the second rounder and undrafted guys.

Uh, Wes has a guarantee, and the only FRP that the Spurs have dumped this quickly showed his wiener around. Wes has a spot for next year, at least. When the first rounders start piling up, that’s a different discussion that is at least a year away.

[JPB]

If Spurs get Wemby I can indeed see them pulling a trade or two, specially with their boatload of picks, to try and build a competitive team around Vic. Victor or not actually, this team is badly missing star power.

[BackHome]

If we get him I do not seeing them do anything drastic the first year better to see what we truly have before trying to fit vet pieces in. As I said before even if we get Wemb will still be a bad team and hopefully get another lottery pick as we desperately need upgrade in talent. So if your thinking of a fast return to the NBA finals think again but if he does work out then I can see us doing serious damage in playoffs 2027 and continuing that until his wheels falls off

[lmbebo]

get a better after the draft

[heyheymymy]

Pretty cool we get a 3rd Two-Way slot this year from the new CBA

Especially since we have reaped some gold from those lately.

[Biggems]

Forget about Mamu?

KBD has played pretty darn well this year. If he doesn’t get a bag thrown at him, he should return. It will take a while to trade both McD and Graham, so plan on them being on the roster until February. Dieng has zero trade value, and should be allowed to roll off. Langford has been beyond mid. I’d be shocked if they even extend a qualifying offer. If we do trade back from a post lottery 2 or 3 position to get another FRP, he’s certainly gone.
I want Mamu back. He would be an important piece to the puzzle should our draft go as well as I want. If we do luck into Wemby, then I do want to trade back into the 1st. If that means using Langford and some future assets, so be it. Get me Kris Murray. If these two picks come to fruition, we would need to stress out about the 2nd round picks. Even though I don't really want him, let's say we trade away the first of our second round picks in the Murray trade, but with the second one we draft Edey. I know he doesn't really have an NBA body or athleticism. However, just the thought of having Wemby and Edey on the floor at the same time for small stretches of the game would be fun to watch.

[exstatic]

I want Mamu back. He would be an important piece to the puzzle should our draft go as well as I want. If we do luck into Wemby, then I do want to trade back into the 1st. If that means using Langford and some future assets, so be it. Get me Kris Murray. If these two picks come to fruition, we would need to stress out about the 2nd round picks. Even though I don't really want him, let's say we trade away the first of our second round picks in the Murray trade, but with the second one we draft Edey. I know he doesn't really have an NBA body or athleticism. However, just the thought of having Wemby and Edey on the floor at the same time for small stretches of the game would be fun to watch.

The problem with Edey is that the mismatches he creates aren’t as valuable as the mismatches created against him on defense.

[EricB]

I wouldn’t be shocked if they get Wemby, that Johnson plus the Bulls pick and the Hawks pick to try and get up there in the late lottery.

[JPB]

I wouldn’t be shocked if they get Wemby, that Johnson plus the Bulls pick and the Hawks pick to try and get up there in the late lottery.

Or use them to trade. That's a lot of young guys or role/end of bench players in that roster. you want some more talent and vet presence, guys who know how to win.

[Ariel]

I wouldn’t be shocked if they get Wemby, that Johnson plus the Bulls pick and the Hawks pick to try and get up there in the late lottery.
Wait, what? you want to trade: Keldon Johnson PLUS Chicago's pick (potentially good) PLUS (unprotected) Atlata's pick for a late lottery pick this year? I'm reading that right? To target whom? Honestly I wouldn't trade Keldon alone for such a pick, maybe one of the 2 picks (but not both) plus a few seconds at most... not many guys I'd love in that range.

[Ariel]

If Spurs get Wemby I can indeed see them pulling a trade or two, specially with their boatload of picks, to try and build a competitive team around Vic. Victor or not actually, this team is badly missing star power.
Way too soon. Spend your assets prematurely and 4 years down the road you're at risk of finding yourself where Dallas is now. IMO if we get Wemby then we should continue to build organically, developing the young talent, and taking advantage of the opportunities that may present themselves. In short, not more tanking but not forcing the issue either, kind of like where Indiana and Utah are right now, and trending up from that point on. That's the optimal scenario if we land Wemby, IMO.

[rascal]

Wait, what? you want to trade: Keldon Johnson PLUS Chicago's pick (potentially good) PLUS (unprotected) Atlata's pick for a late lottery pick this year? I'm reading that right? To target whom? Honestly I wouldn't trade Keldon alone for such a pick, maybe one of the 2 picks (but not both) plus a few seconds at most... not many guys I'd love in that range.

Hold on to Atlanta's unprotected picks. Those are gold. Those Atlanta picks are the ones I would least look to trade.

[JPB]

Way too soon. Spend your assets prematurely and 4 years down the road you're at risk of finding yourself where Dallas is now. IMO if we get Wemby then we should continue to build organically, developing the young talent, and taking advantage of the opportunities that may present themselves. In short, not more tanking but not forcing the issue either, kind of like where Indiana and Utah are right now, and trending up from that point on. That's the optimal scenario if we land Wemby, IMO.

Maybe usually (and not totally sure Utah or Indiana will contend anytime soon) but Wemby changes everything if you ask me. Special player, special decisions... Can you afford, on the court, in the crowd, in the media, in the business, in Victor's mind... to cruise your way back to relevancy the old daddy's way, when you have a potential all time great with so many expectations (starting by his)?

And I'm not talking about emptying the pick chest, but with young players + a few picks you can get one or two quality vets to lead the locker room and show the kids how to win. Spurs have 12 FRPs picks and 19 SRs in the next seven years, so you can bite a bit in the cake and still have ressources for the future. It was "fun" and all to rave at Mamu or Champagnie exploits durig that tanking year but you can't (I can't anyway) go decently wiht the same roster next year, specially with Wemby in. Give Victor a decent team already, he deserves one considering what his mere presence will bring to your team. Not sure he would be OK to run the treadmill for his first 2-3 years in the NBA with all the Barlows of the word, with the risk to lose him one or two year later. The guy is the ultimate competitor.

[mo7888]

Wait, what? you want to trade: Keldon Johnson PLUS Chicago's pick (potentially good) PLUS (unprotected) Atlata's pick for a late lottery pick this year? I'm reading that right? To target whom? Honestly I wouldn't trade Keldon alone for such a pick, maybe one of the 2 picks (but not both) plus a few seconds at most... not many guys I'd love in that range.

Yep... I love this draft, but there's no way I'm including that ATL unprotected 1st in a trade

[EricB]

Wait, what? you want to trade: Keldon Johnson PLUS Chicago's pick (potentially good) PLUS (unprotected) Atlata's pick for a late lottery pick this year? I'm reading that right? To target whom? Honestly I wouldn't trade Keldon alone for such a pick, maybe one of the 2 picks (but not both) plus a few seconds at most... not many guys I'd love in that range.


depends on who’s available. The bulls pick will not be that great, it’s way more of a wild card than the hawks picks.

[EricB]

Way too soon. Spend your assets prematurely and 4 years down the road you're at risk of finding yourself where Dallas is now. IMO if we get Wemby then we should continue to build organically, developing the young talent, and taking advantage of the opportunities that may present themselves. In short, not more tanking but not forcing the issue either, kind of like where Indiana and Utah are right now, and trending up from that point on. That's the optimal scenario if we land Wemby, IMO.

If this guy by some miracle comes to SA and he’s a generational talent, then you don’t Cavaliers 2003-2004 him.

[exstatic]

If this guy by some miracle comes to SA and he’s a generational talent, then you don’t Cavaliers 2003-2004 him.

I think you need to see him play for a year, and determine what your shopping list is.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Hold on to Atlanta's unprotected picks. Those are gold. Those Atlanta picks are the ones I would least look to trade.

This. Those should be off the board.

That said, if somehow someone willing to give up a top 5 pick this year for one of those, I'd listen. But for a late lotto? Hell no.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Way too soon. Spend your assets prematurely and 4 years down the road you're at risk of finding yourself where Dallas is now. IMO if we get Wemby then we should continue to build organically, developing the young talent, and taking advantage of the opportunities that may present themselves. In short, not more tanking but not forcing the issue either, kind of like where Indiana and Utah are right now, and trending up from that point on. That's the optimal scenario if we land Wemby, IMO.

I fully agree. Getting Wemby isn't a pipedream, but its only a 14% possibility. So at the risk of counting chickens before hatching, lets assume we get Wemby..then the template to follow is that of OKC with Durant, Westbrook and Harden and how they grew into a powerhouse based on talent.

I do feel that the Wemby-Sochan-Keldon-Devin-Collins-Trae-Malaki core has the potential of threatening to be in the play-in next year if the youngsters continue to trust the improvement process. They will also be in the similar age group bracket (except for a slightly older Collins). By adding a couple of veterans to this core, the play-in zone isn't going to be too much of a reach. Besides there are two factors to allow the Spurs to avoid outright tanking in 2023-24 - one, the lack of high end talent in the top half of the 2024 lottery and two, they have insurance in a top 6 protected pick coming from Toronto and a lottery protected pick coming from Charlotte, besides their own.

By allowing this core to grow organically and compete, the Spurs will ease the process of getting back to contention, which, I think will likely become less difficult as the core of other contenders become older (the Lakers, the Bucks, the Warriors and the Clippers in particular [not in order]).

The Spurs will be in a pickle only if they don't land Wemby. And if Scoot or the Thompson twins dont pan out to be star-like talent, they would have to extend The Process for another year or two and hope for the best.

[JPB]

I fully agree. Getting Wemby isn't a pipedream, but its only a 14% possibility. So at the risk of counting chickens before hatching, lets assume we get Wemby.then the template to follow is that of OKC with Durant, Westbrook and Harden and how grew into a powerhouse based on talent.


Getting Wemby would already be fantastic but you won't get Harden and Westbrook through the next drafts and you don't have them in your current roster. That Westbrook/Harden/Durant thing was totally exceptional. So you'll spend and waste three years of Wemby in mediocrity with no guarantees the following drafts will be that productive, betting on organic growth whose ceiling is maybe play in, first round exit team... Let's not overestimate out guys, Keldon, Vassel, even Sochan are nice complementary, second banana players but they're no real top stars, and you need 2 or 3 of them to contend.

The current roster + Wemby isn't even close to contend over time. You replace Wemby by Luka and you're basically Dallas as they are now. Now add a couple of talented vets to Wemby next year to help the youngsters take the next step, within organic growth, and that's another story. You can preserve organic growth all the while improving the team vith trades, that's even better. Why wait? Because it's supposed to be a multi year, meticulous plan? It is supposed to be the best way you can improve and contend. And with Wemby... Why wait? You already have the franchise player but you're not sure you'll alway have him. Tim almost left for Orlando and Wemby will go wherever he's sure he can win. Show him you're serious about it now and try to build a team who WILL be more and more competitive within his first 3 years instead of making him wait 3 years before you really start to move because he might not care anymore...

[Ariel]

The Spurs don't have all stars in their roster... YET. Sochan, Branham, Vassell very well can become all stars in 2-3 years. Also the Spurs should get good picks in the next few years, whether their own or others (Toronto, Atlanta, Chicago, etc). I sincerely don't think this sense of urgency to contend from day 1 is coming from Wemby himself, but from third parties expectations, and (even if intentions are good) they may be more harmful than helpful.
If you build a team around him and overpay for veterans, the pressure for him to perform is immediate, and that may not bode well for his adaptation process or his body at all. That may also not yield the desired result for all the other youngsters on the team. The no. 1 thing you need to do if you get Wemby is develop him and your team right, and that is more aligned with managing expectations, his own and the rest. Failing to do so also entails a significant cost. You don't burn out your franchise prospect because of external pressure or anxiety.
Like I said, I'd call off the hard tanking phase and try to build a real team organically, probably go for some free agents with upside (Jalen McDaniels?), and if an opportunity comes our way to trade for an interesting player at a position of need (say PG) they sure, I'd entertain it as long as it's in the long term benefit. But if Wemby or his entourage start making the demands implied in your post before he's even steps foot in the NBA, then that spells doom eventually. We've had enough of that to go around the last time we had a star and his entourage try to call the shots.

[Ariel]

depends on who’s available. The bulls pick will not be that great, it’s way more of a wild card than the hawks picks.
That package (young player with upside + 1 unprotected pick + 1 reasonably protected pick with upside) is borderline all star like. Who in Christ's name can be available in the late lottery to warrant that price tag? I don't think even Scoot has proven he's worth that much.

[exstatic]

That package (young player with upside + 1 unprotected pick + 1 reasonably protected pick with upside) is borderline all star like. Who in Christ's name can be available in the late lottery to warrant that price tag? I don't think even Scoot has proven he's worth that much.

I don't think there is anyone with a sure shot at being as good as Keldon in that range, let alone including ANY picks.

[wildbill2u]

I keep hearing about adding some "talented vets" around Wemby if we get him. Great idea. Name some players who are available, fit into the budget, and actually might want to come to SA voluntarily as free agents. Or name some "talented vets" who we could trade for with whatever means who have All-star quality. You can't win a championship in this league any more with the typical vets that become available. Sure you can pick up a rotational player who might be on the cusp of becoming better to elevate himself to starting or something, but a full fledged All Star forward or guard? Fuhgeddaboutit.

[exstatic]

I keep hearing about adding some "talented vets" around Wemby if we get him. Great idea. Name some players who are available, fit into the budget, and actually might want to come to SA voluntarily as free agents. Or name some "talented vets" who we could trade for with whatever means who have All-star quality. You can't win a championship in this league any more with the typical vets that become available. Sure you can pick up a rotational player who might be on the cusp of becoming better to elevate himself to starting or something, but a full fledged All Star forward or guard? Fuhgeddaboutit.

If said player becomes available, they're someone like Simmons or Kyrie, with more baggage than O'Hare airport.

[Mr. Body]

This. Those should be off the board.

That said, if somehow someone willing to give up a top 5 pick this year for one of those, I'd listen. But for a late lotto? Hell no.

Why would you want another top 5 pick in this draft? Dumb. Keep those picks for later.

[Ariel]

I'm sure the Spurs have the assets to trade for a Dame like star, overpay for a Harden, Kyrie, Van Vleet or Draymond. Those should be realistic options, at a significant cost. For what? a one in a hundred, 2 year window? And then you're f*cked, the demands get worse and you have to sell low on whatever you have left? Haven't we seen that scenario play out time and again, invariably ending in disaster? If that were the case (I'm sure it isn't), I'd rather not get Wemby at all, and pick someone who fit into THE ORGANIZATION'S timeline and plans.

[stnick2261]

the biggest problem with Duncan/Parker/Ginobili is that once they were having the top record, they had the worst draft picks each year. If we get Wemby, I'd rather trade our own future picks and keep other team's future picks.

[Ariel]

the biggest problem with Duncan/Parker/Ginobili is that once they were having the top record, they had the worst draft picks each year. If we get Wemby, I'd rather trade our own future picks and keep other team's future picks.
'24 or '25 should be lottery picks as well, even if not high lottery. Plus '25 is supposedly a good draft, I'd rather keep that pick. Also '26 and '28 picks come attached with swap rights, so those are more valuable and shouldn't be traded. '27, '29 or '30 (beginning draft night) could be traded, but ridding yourself of picks that far into the future is always a risk.
Because of that, barring some incredible opportunity (Luka like) the one pick I'd move right now is Charlotte's, because it should convey at a 15-20 range if at all, and only if there's a good chance of taking a bird in hand now to move up the draft or to catch someone who fell outside the lottery (say a Keyonte George or Rayan Rupert). No need to rush or panic, just be on the lookout and take advantage of opportunities.

[JPB]

The Spurs don't have all stars in their roster... YET. Sochan, Branham, Vassell very well can become all stars in 2-3 years. Also the Spurs should get good picks in the next few years, whether their own or others (Toronto, Atlanta, Chicago, etc). I sincerely don't think this sense of urgency to contend from day 1 is coming from Wemby himself, but from third parties expectations, and (even if intentions are good) they may be more harmful than helpful.
If you build a team around him and overpay for veterans, the pressure for him to perform is immediate, and that may not bode well for his adaptation process or his body at all. That may also not yield the desired result for all the other youngsters on the team. The no. 1 thing you need to do if you get Wemby is develop him and your team right, and that is more aligned with managing expectations, his own and the rest. Failing to do so also entails a significant cost. You don't burn out your franchise prospect because of external pressure or anxiety.
Like I said, I'd call off the hard tanking phase and try to build a real team organically, probably go for some free agents with upside (Jalen McDaniels?), and if an opportunity comes our way to trade for an interesting player at a position of need (say PG) they sure, I'd entertain it as long as it's in the long term benefit. But if Wemby or his entourage start making the demands implied in your post before he's even steps foot in the NBA, then that spells doom eventually. We've had enough of that to go around the last time we had a star and his entourage try to call the shots.

Yes precisely, spurs don't have all stars in thei roster and we have no idea if Sochan , Branham or Keldon will actually become AS, and if they do it will be fringe all star, not first banana all star. Same for the picks, we don't know what players they'll bring. And it's not about contending from day 1, but building from day 1 the bases of a team who will be competitive in 3 years with the core of the roster + upgrading every year. Because again, the current roster + Wemby isn't a very good team in 3 years. i don't wanna see the spurs becoming OKC or HOU by keeping on adding young guys to the current one in the next 3 years. It's not about impatience vs. wisdom, it's about being pragmatical and rational. Waiting will give no guarantee of success, specially if you know these young guys are not ship' material.

If you get Wemby, try to find your identity from day 1. Don't semi tank for 2 or 3 years to ultimately find yourself un mediocrty. Quality FAs and opportunities are rare, you got some cap, you got a bunch of picks, if you get Wemby use some of that to attract whatever good star is available and wanna play with Wemby. Waiting won't bring better results, and probably worth if you ask me. I like the guys, but personnally I'm not in for another 2 or 3 years of Barlow, Champagnie, Bassey half of the game on the floor. A contending team is Tim/Manu/TP + elite role players (Bruce, Horry, Tiago, Boris)... It's not Wemby/Keldon/Vassel + Mamu, Wesley, Champagnie.

[JPB]

I keep hearing about adding some "talented vets" around Wemby if we get him. Great idea. Name some players who are available, fit into the budget, and actually might want to come to SA voluntarily as free agents. Or name some "talented vets" who we could trade for with whatever means who have All-star quality. You can't win a championship in this league any more with the typical vets that become available. Sure you can pick up a rotational player who might be on the cusp of becoming better to elevate himself to starting or something, but a full fledged All Star forward or guard? Fuhgeddaboutit.

Ever heard about trading? you know with the picks and assets you have, whcih is kinda the whole point.

[stnick2261]

'24 or '25 should be lottery picks as well, even if not high lottery. Plus '25 is supposedly a good draft, I'd rather keep that pick. Also '26 and '28 picks come attached with swap rights, so those are more valuable and shouldn't be traded. '27, '29 or '30 (beginning draft night) could be traded, but ridding yourself of picks that far into the future is always a risk.
Because of that, barring some incredible opportunity (Luka like) the one pick I'd move right now is Charlotte's, because it should convey at a 15-20 range if at all, and only if there's a good chance of taking a bird in hand now to move up the draft or to catch someone who fell outside the lottery (say a Keyonte George or Rayan Rupert). No need to rush or panic, just be on the lookout and take advantage of opportunities.

Yeah, I'm not advocating for us to actually trade our picks. Just saying that once we are good, we will be happy having other team's picks so we don't want to trade those away. And obviously pick swaps would be included as "other team's picks".

[Ariel]

The model you're proposing has been tried again and again, almost invariably with horrible results: Brooklyn -twice, first with KG & Pierce, then KD, Kyrie & Harden-, NY -multiple times, with Marbury, Carmelo, Amare, etc.-, Clippers -had to give up SGA + 5 picks for PG13-, Houston -trading for Chris Paul, then Westbrook, then Wall ending up in a buyout-Dallas with Kyrie, Chicago -got Vucevic at the expense of Wendell Carter & 2 picks one of which turned into Franz Wagner and the other is a lottery pick this year-, now Phoenix -early returns don't look promising to me, I'd rather have Mikhal Bridges let alone Cam Johnson plus all those picks-, and Minnesota (what they gave up to get Gobert was probably the worst trade in NBA history). In the past 3 decades, most champions (Spurs, Golden State, Milwaukee, Detroit, etc) grew up organically via draft & free agent signings, and the few exceptions (Miami, Lakers, Cleveland) were built around free agent signings and maybe one trade (Shaq to Miami, Gasol to Lakers, Kevin Love to Cleveland) that complemented an already ready to contend foundation.
The only successful teams centered around trades were Toronto in '19 (lasted a season) and most notably Boston in '08 (got 2 major pieces in KG and Ray Allen).
Evidence is overall overwhelmingly AGAINST trading for established star veterans, because they are usually targeted by teams with little leverage that are taken advantage of. I dpn't see what's the hurry to contend right now, no team Wemby goes to will afford him that opportunity right away, Boston, Milwaukee, Golden State, Phoenix, Philadelphia, those teams are not on the menu, and if you think the dysfunctional Rockets or piss poor constructed Pistons (Duren + Wiseman + Bagley + Isiah Stewart... + Wemby? WTF) will give him that, you're fooling yourself. I honestly don't think that path is the best for Wemby or the Spurs. Typically every rookie holds maximum leverage at the 6th year since drafted (post rookie extension, which they all take), and THAT'S when the Spurs need to be at their strongest. Dallas with Luka is exactly what we need to avoid.

[Ariel]

Yeah, I'm not advocating for us to actually trade our picks. Just saying that once we are good, we will be happy having other team's picks so we don't want to trade those away. And obviously pick swaps would be included as "other team's picks".
You can't trade swap rights, you can only trade your picks that have those rights attached. At most you can add a protection to the pick, but those 2 are not separate entities.

[stnick2261]

You can't trade swap rights, you can only trade your picks that have those rights attached. At most you can add a protection to the pick, but those 2 are not separate entities.

wow, you are really not understanding. I literally said I wasn't advocating for us to actually trade our picks..... just that it's better for us to keep other teams picks. I never said anything about trading pick swaps. A pick swap is already keeping the better of 2 team's picks.

[Ariel]

wow, you are really not understanding. I literally said I wasn't advocating for us to actually trade our picks..... just that it's better for us to keep other teams picks. I never said anything about trading pick swaps. A pick swap is already keeping the better of 2 team's picks.
It's you who doesn't understand what either of us is saying. You stated "obviously pick swaps would be included as "other team's picks"". I'm pointing out why those 2 (swaps and picks) are very different in nature when it comes to trading. So if that's not what you meant, then your quote came out wrong.

[scott]

This. Those should be off the board.

That said, if somehow someone willing to give up a top 5 pick this year for one of those, I'd listen. But for a late lotto? Hell no.

Are the Spurs allowed to trade the unprotected ATL picks with Protections that we add?

I'd definitely be interested in moving those ATL picks if they were Lotto protected.

[stnick2261]

It's you who doesn't understand what either of us is saying. You stated "obviously pick swaps would be included as "other team's picks"". I'm pointing out why those 2 (swaps and picks) are very different in nature when it comes to trading. So if that's not what you meant, then your quote came out wrong.

Going off from what I said in my first post..... if we draft Wemby and start having good records... then the pick swap would be the "other team's pick" because it would be higher. I also was clarifying in that post that I wasn't advocating for trading any picks (just that I valued other team's picks more if we became a good team). I hope that clears up my side of things.

[jjspur]

By now the spurs are knee deep in meetings and discussions whether whether it its :
Plan A We get Wemby
Plan B We don't get Wemby but we get a pick in the 2 - 4 range
Plan C The lottery gods screw us and we get the 7th pick

Any of the above 3 are possible. All we truly know right now is that we don't which it will be. So lets sit back and chill, I have faith that the spurs know what the situations are and how to plan for it (hopefully). We all have our opinions right or wrong, but its their actual job to do it and try to get it right. I know its going to be a long month waiting for the draft lottery but in the mean time the cussing and discussing will continue.

[exstatic]

By now the spurs are knee deep in meetings and discussions whether whether it its :
Plan A We get Wemby
Plan B We don't get Wemby but we get a pick in the 2 - 4 range
Plan C The lottery gods screw us and we get the 7th pick

Any of the above 3 are possible. All we truly know right now is that we don't which it will be. So lets sit back and chill, I have faith that the spurs know what the situations are and how to plan for it (hopefully). We all have our opinions right or wrong, but its their actual job to do it and try to get it right. I know its going to be a long month waiting for the draft lottery but in the mean time the cussing and discussing will continue.

Exactly. Arguing over what to do when we get Wemby has an 86% chance to be meaningless.

[scott]

The Spurs don't have all stars in their roster... YET. Sochan, Branham, Vassell very well can become all stars in 2-3 years. Also the Spurs should get good picks in the next few years, whether their own or others (Toronto, Atlanta, Chicago, etc). I sincerely don't think this sense of urgency to contend from day 1 is coming from Wemby himself, but from third parties expectations, and (even if intentions are good) they may be more harmful than helpful.
If you build a team around him and overpay for veterans, the pressure for him to perform is immediate, and that may not bode well for his adaptation process or his body at all. That may also not yield the desired result for all the other youngsters on the team. The no. 1 thing you need to do if you get Wemby is develop him and your team right, and that is more aligned with managing expectations, his own and the rest. Failing to do so also entails a significant cost. You don't burn out your franchise prospect because of external pressure or anxiety.
Like I said, I'd call off the hard tanking phase and try to build a real team organically, probably go for some free agents with upside (Jalen McDaniels?), and if an opportunity comes our way to trade for an interesting player at a position of need (say PG) they sure, I'd entertain it as long as it's in the long term benefit. But if Wemby or his entourage start making the demands implied in your post before he's even steps foot in the NBA, then that spells doom eventually. We've had enough of that to go around the last time we had a star and his entourage try to call the shots.

No matter who we pick, he will have the most pressure on him since any rookie since David Robinson to turn this franchise around.

If we are picking #1 and pick Wemby, that pressure will intensify as Wemby will instantly join an elite fraternity with Tim Duncan and David Robinson as the only other members. While the San Antonio sports media is generally fairly subservient to Spurs Sports & Entertainment, this is still the winningest franchise in NBA history, and franchises like our SHOULD have high expectations where prolonged losing it not acceptable. We've missed the playoffs 4 straight years, matching the number of times we missed the playoffs in our entire franchise history prior to that (granted, there were times in that history where you could make the playoffs with a 31-51 record).

The two other members of the Spurs #1 draft pick fraternity have a few things in common: NBA MVPs, HOFers, multiple NBA Champs, etc. But they also both were part of the greatest single-season turnarounds in NBA history. For better or worse, fair or unfair, wise or unwise, that history will lead to some expectations of Wemby. I don't think ending up at the bottom of the standings again in Wemby's rookie year will be in his or the franchise's best interest as it will lead to premature (and frankly, ignorant) questions among fans and the media of whether Wemb belongs in this vaunted fraternity with Tim and David.

We shouldn't expect another NBA Record turnaround, but I do think Wemby's rookie year should at least result in the play-in. To facilitate that, I'm not looking for the Spurs to go out and acquire a second true superstar to play next to Wemby, heck I'm not even expecting the Spurs to make an acquisition like Terry Cummings? When the Spurs got him, TC was coming off an all-star/all NBA 3rd team season where he average 23/8, numbers he essentially replicated in San Antonio. That is probably asking for too much... and maybe we've already got that guy in Keldon or Devin? But I do think we should expect more than just drafting Wemby and shoe-horning him into the current lineup. The obvious spot to upgrade would be PG - is there a smaller kind of upgrade we could make that position this offseason?

The following seems like a core line up capable to making a play-in run without sacrificing our long term flexibility:

??/Tre
Devin/Bran
Sochan/Keldon
Wemby/Mamu
Collins/Bassey

[scott]

By now the spurs are knee deep in meetings and discussions whether whether it its :
Plan A We get Wemby
Plan B We don't get Wemby but we get a pick in the 2 - 4 range
Plan C The lottery gods screw us and we get the 7th pick

Any of the above 3 are possible. All we truly know right now is that we don't which it will be. So lets sit back and chill, I have faith that the spurs know what the situations are and how to plan for it (hopefully). We all have our opinions right or wrong, but its their actual job to do it and try to get it right. I know its going to be a long month waiting for the draft lottery but in the mean time the cussing and discussing will continue.

Of course, but this is a fan message board. We come here to discuss all sorts of possibilities, no matter how remote they are. That's what makes it fun. Should all the brainpower that went into discussing what to do when we draft Wemby go for naught, it will has still served the purpose of the message board: giving fans something to talk about and providing entertainment value.

[JPB]

Seems to me some people are too focused on future picks and doing it the "right way"... The goal isn't to get more young prospects but to get better and try to build a contender.. Do we want spurs to add another 2 or 3 mid to late lottrey picks to their current roster in the next 2-3 years if they get wemby or try to build a good, improving team from now on with their current assets and picks and try to contend in the next 3-4 years.

3 years from now, you'd have Wemby + the core of the current roster + those 2 or 3 picks (or even more since spurs have potentially a bunch) before only trying to add FAs or trade for "quality vets"? And theorically contend when exactly? 7 or 8 years later when everyone has enough experience? Why wait and no try to see if you can trade or attract some talent right now since you have what it takes, assuming you get Wemby? Initiate "race for seis" and build a quality roster from day 1 to create familiarity, complicity, and see what you should and can improve every year... The only reason to wait another 2-3 years would only be to get more prospects (prolly not top ones tho). Philly tanked forever with not even a final series to show for it so far (and that was with a bunch of high picks). So imagine with just mid/late lottery picks if spurs semi tank the next 2-3 years. there's absolutely no guarantees to me that way would give a better result than getting things going now.

[exstatic]

Seems to me some people are too focused on future picks and doing it the "right way"... The goal isn't to get more young prospects but to get better and try to build a contender.. Do we want spurs to add another 2 or 3 mid to late lottrey picks to their current roster in the next 2-3 years if they get wemby or try to build a good, improving team from now on with their current assets and picks and try to contend in the next 3-4 years.

3 years from now, you'd have Wemby + the core of the current roster + those 2 or 3 picks (or even more since spurs have potentially a bunch) before only trying to add FAs or trade for "quality vets"? And theorically contend when exactly? 7 or 8 years later when everyone has enough experience? Why wait and no try to see if you can trade or attract some talent right now since you have what it takes, assuming you get Wemby? Initiate "race for seis" and build a quality roster from day 1 to create familiarity, complicity, and see what you should and can improve every year... The only reason to wait another 2-3 years would only be to get more prospects (prolly not top ones tho). Philly tanked forever with not even a final series to show for it so far (and that was with a bunch of high picks). So imagine with just mid/late lottery picks if spurs semi tank the next 2-3 years. there's absolutely no guarantees to me that way would give a better result than getting things going now.

My position isn’t to wait three years, but to absolutely wait one.

[Mr. Body]

Seems to me some people are too focused on future picks and doing it the "right way"... The goal isn't to get more young prospects but to get better and try to build a contender.. Do we want spurs to add another 2 or 3 mid to late lottrey picks to their current roster in the next 2-3 years if they get wemby or try to build a good, improving team from now on with their current assets and picks and try to contend in the next 3-4 years.

3 years from now, you'd have Wemby + the core of the current roster + those 2 or 3 picks (or even more since spurs have potentially a bunch) before only trying to add FAs or trade for "quality vets"? And theorically contend when exactly? 7 or 8 years later when everyone has enough experience? Why wait and no try to see if you can trade or attract some talent right now since you have what it takes, assuming you get Wemby? Initiate "race for seis" and build a quality roster from day 1 to create familiarity, complicity, and see what you should and can improve every year... The only reason to wait another 2-3 years would only be to get more prospects (prolly not top ones tho). Philly tanked forever with not even a final series to show for it so far (and that was with a bunch of high picks). So imagine with just mid/late lottery picks if spurs semi tank the next 2-3 years. there's absolutely no guarantees to me that way would give a better result than getting things going now.

I'm not sure what the alternative is. Are you saying to trade future picks for current picks? How many rookies and sophomores do you think a team can handle at once? How good do you think this draft actually is? If somehow the team gets Wembanyama, are you saying to burn the Atlanta picks to, like, pick up Kobe Bufkin and, like, I don't even know. GG Jackson? What exactly is that going to do for you?

Those picks aren't going to get you into the lottery. I guess you could super-load them, like give up two or three FRPs to get into the lotto, but that doesn't seem like a wise use of assets at all. If the team does get good, you want to have ways to improve despite weakening draft positions. Meanwhile, hell, we have like seven first and second year players as it is.

[scott]

I'm not sure what the alternative is. Are you saying to trade future picks for current picks? How many rookies and sophomores do you think a team can handle at once? How good do you think this draft actually is? If somehow the team gets Wembanyama, are you saying to burn the Atlanta picks to, like, pick up Kobe Bufkin and, like, I don't even know. GG Jackson? What exactly is that going to do for you?

Those picks aren't going to get you into the lottery. I guess you could super-load them, like give up two or three FRPs to get into the lotto, but that doesn't seem like a wise use of assets at all. If the team does get good, you want to have ways to improve despite weakening draft positions. Meanwhile, hell, we have like seven first and second year players as it is.

I'd like to see us do the opposite and try to convert some of those future picks into proven, established players. Whether that is in Year 0 of Wembytime, Year+1 or Year+3, I don't think the way to go from play-in to contender is by adding more rookies into the pool (unless it is another very high lottery pick in Year+1). However, those extra draft picks definitely become valuable after you're a contender and they allow you to add relatively cheap talent to an already good team, assuming you the resources to properly develop them (and the Spurs have been historically good at this).

I'm thinking of the kind of move where you get a Derrick White caliber player for the #24 overall pick and a far out swap. It isn't apples to apples, because that pick that became Blake had a near 100% likelihood of conveying, but a pick like that might have some equivalence to the CHI pick (though that pick is looking more and more valuable, even though the risk of it not conveying is increasing too). The CHA pick is probably worth less than that BOS pick, and the TOR pick is certainly worth more. The CHI pick might be slightly higher value (but BOS also included additional assets). Can you get a Derrick White caliber player for the CHI pick + a few seconds?

[Mr. Body]

I'd like to see us do the opposite and try to convert some of those future picks into proven, established players. Whether that is in Year 0 of Wembytime, Year+1 or Year+3, I don't think the way to go from play-in to contender is by adding more rookies into the pool (unless it is another very high lottery pick in Year+1). However, those extra draft picks definitely become valuable after you're a contender and they allow you to add relatively cheap talent to an already good team, assuming you the resources to properly develop them (and the Spurs have been historically good at this).

I'm thinking of the kind of move where you get a Derrick White caliber player for the #24 overall pick and a far out swap. It isn't apples to apples, because that pick that became Blake had a near 100% likelihood of conveying, but a pick like that might have some equivalence to the CHI pick (though that pick is looking more and more valuable, even though the risk of it not conveying is increasing too). The CHA pick is probably worth less than that BOS pick, and the TOR pick is certainly worth more. The CHI pick might be slightly higher value (but BOS also included additional assets). Can you get a Derrick White caliber player for the CHI pick + a few seconds?

Yeah, I think you basically have two options for all those picks we have coming up, because we cannot possibly use all of them.

1. Trade for existing players
2. Flip some picks for future picks

And I suppose a third

3. Consolidate picks to move up

Trading for existing players has to be the hardest to do, and is where I think Presti/OKC is verging into. It's a totally different sensibility and skill set for a GM/FO. The other two I think will work to some degree -- teams always value current drafts over future drafts. The Spurs could take advantage in some regard and keep moving some of these down the line.

[offset formation]

I think if ppl go into the draft with this nugget of wisdom they'll be far less disappointed when something other than getting #1 happens, and that is this: The Spurs, now that we have the lower pick than Houston, have almost twice as great the odds to draft at #6 than we do at #1.

For me that really hamners home how the NBA is fucking the poorest performing teams, and underscores the odds are just not good the even draft 1-3. In fact we have a 59.9% chance we draft 4-7.

So again I say fuck the NBA.

[exstatic]

I'd like to see us do the opposite and try to convert some of those future picks into proven, established players. Whether that is in Year 0 of Wembytime, Year+1 or Year+3, I don't think the way to go from play-in to contender is by adding more rookies into the pool (unless it is another very high lottery pick in Year+1). However, those extra draft picks definitely become valuable after you're a contender and they allow you to add relatively cheap talent to an already good team, assuming you the resources to properly develop them (and the Spurs have been historically good at this).

I'm thinking of the kind of move where you get a Derrick White caliber player for the #24 overall pick and a far out swap. It isn't apples to apples, because that pick that became Blake had a near 100% likelihood of conveying, but a pick like that might have some equivalence to the CHI pick (though that pick is looking more and more valuable, even though the risk of it not conveying is increasing too). The CHA pick is probably worth less than that BOS pick, and the TOR pick is certainly worth more. The CHI pick might be slightly higher value (but BOS also included additional assets). Can you get a Derrick White caliber player for the CHI pick + a few seconds?

It’s funny, because if it conveys, it will almost certainly be better than the #26 we got from Boston. Picks 27-30 are usually conference powerhouses, and unless they draw Wemby, they won’t be that.

[EricB]

That package (young player with upside + 1 unprotected pick + 1 reasonably protected pick with upside) is borderline all star like. Who in Christ's name can be available in the late lottery to warrant that price tag? I don't think even Scoot has proven he's worth that much.


Keldon Johnson doesn’t have enough upside to warrant that so no.

[Ariel]

Keldon Johnson doesn’t have enough upside to warrant that so no.
What? Keldon Johnson is a 23 y.o. wing who just posted 22 PPG and shot over 36% from 3 for his career. Add his long term, good contract and he's definitely worth a lottery pick by himself. Go over a recent draft and tell me what percentage of picks in that range end up better than him, then come talk to me. Anyway, unless you can point a specific scenario to discuss, this whole "warchest for a late lottery pick" idea is abstract nonsense.

[exstatic]

What? Keldon Johnson is a 23 y.o. wing who just posted 22 PPG and shot over 36% from 3 for his career. Add his long term, good contract and he's definitely worth a lottery pick by himself. Go over a recent draft and tell me what percentage of picks in that range end up better than him, then come talk to me. Anyway, unless you can point a specific scenario to discuss, this whole "warchest for a late lottery pick" idea is abstract nonsense.

Agreed. Lottery picks ain't what they used to be, even high ones.

[Gagnrath]

The Spurs are not good and need almost a complete overhaul of the roster.

Keep

Collins, Mamu, Sochan, Branham and Wesley
Move on from all the others

Package Vassell and/or Johnson and draft picks to get future potential all stars at the wings.
The players I'd keep are not all star level players but good role players/backups.
Vassell and/or Johnson aren't either really, Vassell might become something of a start but it's pretty unlikely, and johnson just isn't he might have an outside shot of making a game as an alternate.

[EricB]

What? Keldon Johnson is a 23 y.o. wing who just posted 22 PPG and shot over 36% from 3 for his career. Add his long term, good contract and he's definitely worth a lottery pick by himself. Go over a recent draft and tell me what percentage of picks in that range end up better than him, then come talk to me. Anyway, unless you can point a specific scenario to discuss, this whole "warchest for a late lottery pick" idea is abstract nonsense.


keldon May improve incrementally, but he’s not athletic enough to improve where he becomes an all star, his defense is mediocre at best. Sell high.

[Biggems]

The problem with Edey is that the mismatches he creates aren’t as valuable as the mismatches created against him on defense.

The whole Shawn Bradley 2.0 in a more athletic era is the main reason I don't want him, even if he could be a strong interior defensive presence. I don't think he is agile enough to keep up with the horses in this league.

[Ariel]

keldon May improve incrementally, but he’s not athletic enough to improve where he becomes an all star, his defense is mediocre at best. Sell high.
But that's the point... packaging him along with 2 valuable picks for a late lottery pick now is NOT selling high... more like a fire sale if you ask me.

[JPB]

But that's the point... packaging him along with 2 valuable picks for a late lottery pick now is NOT selling high... more like a fire sale if you ask me.

Agreed. Keldon in himself has late lottery pick value. if you trade him + picks, that's for det quality vet.

[rascal]

Would anyone trade the Spurs pick before the lottery for Luka?

Dallas comes to you offering Luka in a trade before the lottery for the Spurs lottery pick not knowing where the pick lands. Do you take it?

[exstatic]

Would anyone trade the Spurs pick before the lottery for Luka?

Dallas comes to you offering Luka in a trade before the lottery for the Spurs lottery pick not knowing where the pick lands. Do you take it?

No, because Luka is a one way player. He's an offensive wizard, world class, but a defensive dud.

[rascal]

Agreed. Keldon in himself has late lottery pick value. if you trade him + picks, that's for det quality vet.

I would trade Keldon for a mid first round pick and draft a pg Jalen Hood-Shifino with that pick. Spurs need to make a deal to land JHS. Need to add a pg if they don't land Scoot with the 2nd pick.

Trade that Toronto pick to Utah for the 16th pick and draft him there.

[rascal]

No, because Luka is a one way player. He's an offensive wizard, world class, but a defensive dud.

So if the Spurs land 6th or 7th you'd rather have that pick than Luka?

I would take the gamble of keeping the pick to land Wemby. I'm not too high on Luka, couldn't even get Dallas into the playoffs.

[exstatic]

So if the Spurs land 6th or 7th you'd rather have that pick than Luka?

I would take the gamble of keeping the pick to land Wemby. I'm not too high on Luka, couldn't even get Dallas into the playoffs.

The parameters were that the pick would be traded before the lottery. You can't know if it's 1 or 7 at that point. Besides, Cuban would never allow a deal for Luka that has an 86% chance of not being the Wemby pick.

[JPB]

Would anyone trade the Spurs pick before the lottery for Luka?

Dallas comes to you offering Luka in a trade before the lottery for the Spurs lottery pick not knowing where the pick lands. Do you take it?

Cuban has done a lot of stupid things, but there are some limits to it.

[Drom John]

Doncic is a negative Raptor defensive player, -0.5
Doncic has a better defensive Raptor than lesser offensive players Stephen Curry -0.7, Donovan Mitchell, -1.0, and Jayson Tatum, -0.7.
Doncic is the third highest net Raptor.

[scott]

What? Keldon Johnson is a 23 y.o. wing who just posted 22 PPG and shot over 36% from 3 for his career. Add his long term, good contract and he's definitely worth a lottery pick by himself. Go over a recent draft and tell me what percentage of picks in that range end up better than him, then come talk to me. Anyway, unless you can point a specific scenario to discuss, this whole "warchest for a late lottery pick" idea is abstract nonsense.

People love the unknown. We, for the most part, know what we have with Keldon. Maybe there is an X% chance Keldon becomes an all-star, but there is a Y% chance that Unknown Player becomes one! And Y will almost only be > X because most people will always over start the unknown possibilities. A smart team could really take advantage of this tendency by taking the bird in hand (the established player) over the unknown. I feel like Boston did a great job of this with the Derrick trade. Derrick is so much better of a player than any 25th pick is likely to be, and he perfectly fit their timeline while he no longer fit the Spurs. Such a smart trade by them. (Note, that doesn't mean it was a bad trade for the Spurs either. Really this one was a win-win).

I hoping once we have turned the corner we can look to leverage our warchest of picks in a similar way.

[scott]

Would anyone trade the Spurs pick before the lottery for Luka?

Dallas comes to you offering Luka in a trade before the lottery for the Spurs lottery pick not knowing where the pick lands. Do you take it?

In a heartbeat. Even if you WOULD NOT trade Wemby for Luka (which is debatable), your EV of the pick is #4. You're basically asking if you would trade Amen/Cam/Ausar for Luka. Anyone in their right mind should say yes to this in record time.

[rascal]

In a heartbeat. Even if you WOULD NOT trade Wemby for Luka (which is debatable), your EV of the pick is #4. You're basically asking if you would trade Amen/Cam/Ausar for Luka. Anyone in their right mind should say yes to this in record time.

I wouldn't make the trade. I would take the gamble on getting Wemby and if not build through other players.

I don't like the idea of having luka as the best player on the team.

[exstatic]

In a heartbeat. Even if you WOULD NOT trade Wemby for Luka (which is debatable), your EV of the pick is #4. You're basically asking if you would trade Amen/Cam/Ausar for Luka. Anyone in their right mind should say yes to this in record time.

It would be like trading the pick that could become Tim Duncan for Chris Webber, a young, established one way star. I wonder what the EV for the Duncan pick was?

[scott]

I wouldn't make the trade. I would take the gamble on getting Wemby and if not build through other players.

I don't like the idea of having luka as the best player on the team.

That becomes a matter of not liking Luka then. Pick another All NBA First Teamer and ask the same question. This is an easy yes. A 14% gamble on Wemby is not the smart play.

[rascal]

That becomes a matter of not liking Luka then. Pick another All NBA First Teamer and ask the same question. This is an easy yes. A 14% gamble on Wemby is not the smart play.

You have a shot( the best odds possible even if small) at a franchise player like Wemby who doesn't come around every year you don't give that up for a player like Luka.

[scott]

It would be like trading the pick that could become Tim Duncan for Chris Webber, a young, established one way star. I wonder what the EV for the Duncan pick was?

I can't find a definiative odds table for the way the lotto was structured in 1997 - if you have one we can certainly calculate out the EV of that pick.

Luka is already a 3x All NBA 1st Teamer and this year an All NBA 2nd Teamer in the worst season of his career in terms of team performance relative to expectations. After Chris Webber's 5th season, he had yet to make an All NBA Team and had made only one All-Star Team. He was also a year older when he entered the NBA.

Anfernee Hardaway or Grant Hill are probably more analogous comparisons, though neither were as accomplished as Luka by the 1997 draft (they hadn't been in the league as long as Luka has at this point either).

But let's use Grant Hill. Would you trade a 14% chance at Tim Duncan for a 100% sure thing in Grant Hill? Maybe you wouldn't. Now what there was a 33% chance that Tim Duncan was Greg Oden instead? And maybe it's a 33% chance he's Yao Ming? So now you're really trading only a 4.67% chance at Tim Duncan for the sure thing in Grant Hill.

It's easy to look in hindsight and say you want the chance at the Greatest PF of all time. But we don't actually know that Wemby will become that. We would be ecstatic if at year 5 Wemby was a 3x All NBA 1st Teamer and 1x All NBA 2nd Teamer! But the odds of that are somewhere above 0% and less than 100% - we don't actually know. We do know, however that Luka is 100% that.

It's a gamble, and there is no right or wrong way to approach it. But I'm going with the data and making this trade 10 times out of 10. If my pick turns into #1 and Wemby turns into Jordan/Lebron... yeah, I might kick myself, but that doesn't mean our decision making was wrong. It's like calling someone going all-in with 7-2 while we have pocket aces. Sometimes, we're still going to lose. That doesn't mean we made the wrong choice.

[scott]

You have a shot( the best odds possible even if small) at a franchise player like Wemby who doesn't come around every year you don't give that up for a player like Luka.

"A player like Luka"... you mean a 3x All NBA First Teamer and 1x All NBA Second Teamer? I realize Luka probably doesn't pass your weird criteria for athleticism, but he is a franchise player. There is a greater than 0% chance that Wemby does not become what Luka already is.

This one is an easy trade to make. Is Cuban offering it? Let's do it.

The decision becomes a lot harder after you know you have the #1 pick, and I can see both sides to that argument. But at the point, you're just rolling the dice on the probability that Wemby surpasses Luka.

[RC_Drunkford]

I would trade Keldon for a mid first round pick and draft a pg Jalen Hood-Shifino with that pick. Spurs need to make a deal to land JHS. Need to add a pg if they don't land Scoot with the 2nd pick.

Trade that Toronto pick to Utah for the 16th pick and draft him there.

is he as good as Shaedon Sharpe though?