Big Board 1.0: First Look at Who the San Antonio Spurs Will Target in the Lottery

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/spurs-big-board-1-2023-nba-draft/

:toast

[John B]

Thanks Timvp. Wow Scott on number 2. I really like Miller, but you've been always right on your source. :toast

[MultiTroll]

:lol Spurs still playing the self righteous card.
Apples / oranges Primo and Miller to me.

Get the best player available and stop the charade.

NBA's Bryn Forbes arrested on family violence charge - ABC News (go.com) (https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/nbas-bryn-forbes-arrested-family-violence-charge-97232243)

[The Truth #6]

The Thompsons at 3 and 4 is fascinating and I look forward to half of the board melting down.

[Ariel]

According to multiple scouts I’ve talked to, it’s widely believed that the Spurs are higher than the consensus on both of the Thompson twins. In fact, one Eastern Conference scout I spoke to believes that the Spurs would pick one of the Thompson twins instead of Henderson if San Antonio ends up with the second pick in the draft.
The stages of drafting a Thompson twin:
1: :spless: :nope :stfu
2: :madrun :pctoss :flipoff
3: :reading :meeting:
4: :sick :depressed
5::drunk :shootme :hang

[John B]

The stages of drafting a Thompson twin:
1: :spless: :nope :stfu
2: :madrun :pctoss :flipoff
3: :reading :meeting:
4: :sick :depressed
5::drunk :shootme :hang

wow the Thompson twins before Miller?? :smchode:

[rascal]

I'll believe Timvp before Mr. Body and a couple others here about the Spurs interest in Scoot and the Thompson twins and their abilities.

[exstatic]

:vomit

[John B]

"Amen is the one with franchise player potential"... :wow If Amen is the pick then they put Vassell on two? Or Amen plays PG??

I hope they get a shot blocking big at 33, currently with only Bassey and Barlow as Spurs defensive bigs.

[JPB]

So spurs prefer 8 guys to Anthony Black... Interesting.

[Mr. Body]

I don't believe that about the Thompson twins at all. I 100% believe this is keeping up appearances and blanket interest like they always do. You also fail to account for how much those top picks cost in salary. Nothing about this franchise indicates they are going to spend millions of dollars on a ballooning contract on a maybe player.

Doesn't pass the smell test, sorry.

[rascal]

wow the Thompson twins before Miller?? :smchode:

Cross Miller off. He won't be a Spur.

[rascal]

I don't believe that about the Thompson twins at all. I 100% believe this is keeping up appearances and blanket interest like they always do. You also fail to account for how much those top picks cost in salary. Nothing about this franchise indicates they are going to spend millions of dollars on a ballooning contract on a maybe player.

Doesn't pass the smell test, sorry.

Anthony Black is your maybe player.

[John B]

"Amen is the one with franchise player potential"... :wow If Amen is the pick then they put Vassell on two? Or Amen plays PG??

I hope they get a shot blocking big at 33, currently with only Bassey and Barlow as Spurs defensive bigs.

I think Amen could be the pick (if Scoot is not available). Pop is high on players who can facilitate.

[DPG21920]

This is a lot to digest. I said earlier the twins really intrigued me from what little I saw, but picking one over Scoot at 2??? Seems wild. Hope that’s not true and we just land pick one then :lol

But the bigger thing is the Miller news. Not surprising but I really hate hearing SA would hold a grudge and pass on a good player just because of Primo/Alabama. Makes no sense. If they love Miller and he passes background check, why would one player from a school prevent you from taking best player just because from same school?

Of course, this is all contingent on the off court stuff, but if that’s fully cleared and you would love Miller if he played at Kansas, then why would you let emotions dictate what you do?

[spurraider21]

I don't believe that about the Thompson twins at all. I 100% believe this is keeping up appearances and blanket interest like they always do. You also fail to account for how much those top picks cost in salary. Nothing about this franchise indicates they are going to spend millions of dollars on a ballooning contract on a maybe player.

Doesn't pass the smell test, sorry.

Complaining about how someone takes their time to put together big boards the way they want to for free?

[spurraider21]

i had a feeling about the miller thing... which sucks because to me he is the clear #3 prospect in the draft and arguably #2, but kind of a bummer to know that he's basically off the board except for trade purposes. if amen can step in day 1 and actually run point thats pretty cool though.

[Mr. Body]

Anthony Black is your maybe player.

I never said I wanted to draft Anthony Black with a top 5 pick.

[DPG21920]

i had a feeling about the miller thing... which sucks because to me he is the clear #3 prospect in the draft and arguably #2, but kind of a bummer to know that he's basically off the board except for trade purposes. if amen can step in day 1 and actually run point thats pretty cool though.

I believe this is what Timvp has been told, but I don’t believe it’s set in stone. No way. They will need to do double due diligence it seems, but there’s nothing in that write up onSA not loving his game.

So a good interview and background check etc…..the logic tracks but it also may be a bit of a smoke screen to try and get him to fall. Think about it - if you don’t land top3, you’d love a shot at Miller pick 4-7 right? I can’t believe SA would love a player and have him clear of all charges etc and pass on him because he played at same school as Primo.

[Dejounte]

This is a lot to digest. I said earlier the twins really intrigued me from what little I saw, but picking one over Scoot at 2??? Seems wild. Hope that’s not true and we just land pick one then :lol

But the bigger thing is the Miller news. Not surprising but I really hate hearing SA would hold a grudge and pass on a good player just because of Primo/Alabama. Makes no sense. If they love Miller and he passes background check, why would one player from a school prevent you from taking best player just because from same school?

Of course, this is all contingent on the off court stuff, but if that’s fully cleared and you would love Miller if he played at Kansas, then why would you let emotions dictate what you do?

Scoot is number two on his list. Am I missing something? I read through it quickly.

[LeBowen]

Getting the third pick in the lottery and just passing on Miller would be straight up dumb.

Sure, they don't want him, I get that. But not getting another team to trade up for him and give us something extra would be a borderline fireable (no pun intended) offense.

Idk, there's just too much uncertainty, as per usual. I'll more or less ignore everything draft related until the lottery. Too many variables to think about right now.

[John B]

I like Miller, but Amen's ability to facilitate and attack the basket will probably weigh more..

[Ariel]

Scoot is number two on his list. Am I missing something? I read through it quickly.

According to multiple scouts I’ve talked to, it’s widely believed that the Spurs are higher than the consensus on both of the Thompson twins. In fact, one Eastern Conference scout I spoke to believes that the Spurs would pick one of the Thompson twins instead of Henderson if San Antonio ends up with the second pick in the draft.

[Mr. Body]

I believe this is what Timvp has been told, but I don’t believe it’s set in stone. No way. They will need to do double due diligence it seems, but there’s nothing in that write up onSA not loving his game.

So a good interview and background check etc…..the logic tracks but it also may be a bit of a smoke screen to try and get him to fall. Think about it - if you don’t land top3, you’d love a shot at Miller pick 4-7 right? I can’t believe SA would love a player and have him clear of all charges etc and pass on him because he played at same school as Primo.

The draft process hasn't even started yet. I don't think the teams can even contact the payers at this point, so they've only seen them from the stands. This is nothing more than the same big board almost everyone has at this point with some mysterious 'I've talked to people' stuff, and some EC scout seems to think Brandon Miller is off the table and some other unaffiliated scout thinks they could take Amen at two

The Spurs are ferociously and infamously close lipped about what they want to do during drafts. They often hide who they have worked out. They may have at times leaked interest in players they don't actually value.

They could certainly have the Thompsons and Henderson as their Tier Two guys. Everyone else does. It would be unusal if the provider of a message board could manage to get a different board out of them at this point, or at any point. It's all speculation. I personally doubt some of the conclusions, and Timvp isn't accounting for some pretty vital things like the rookie scale, but coming up with a Version 1.0 of a draft board before the draft seasion is official and this Version 1.0 is pretty much the same as anyone else's.

I don't even think this more-or-less draft order is going to be different on draft day no matter what the order winds up becoming. The real question is what the Spurs will actually do on the day. We won't know because they never tell.

[DPG21920]

Scoot is number two on his list. Am I missing something? I read through it quickly.

He is but the caveat with Amen at 3 was *some* he spoke with think SA would take Amen over Scoot. But not enough to move Scoot down on his board at the moment.

[DPG21920]

The draft process hasn't even started yet. I don't think the teams can even contact the payers at this point, so they've only seen them from the stands. This is nothing more than the same big board almost everyone has at this point with some mysterious 'I've talked to people' stuff, and some EC scout seems to think Brandon Miller is off the table and some other unaffiliated scout thinks they could take Amen at two

The Spurs are ferociously and infamously close lipped about what they want to do during drafts. They often hide who they have worked out. They may have at times leaked interest in players they don't actually value.

They could certainly have the Thompsons and Henderson as their Tier Two guys. Everyone else does. It would be unusal if the provider of a message board could manage to get a different board out of them at this point, or at any point. It's all speculation. I personally doubt some of the conclusions, and Timvp isn't accounting for some pretty vital things like the rookie scale, but coming up with a Version 1.0 of a draft board before the draft seasion is official and this Version 1.0 is pretty much the same as anyone else's.

I don't even think this more-or-less draft order is going to be different on draft day no matter what the order winds up becoming. The real question is what the Spurs will actually do on the day. We won't know because they never tell.

I don’t think boards are as consensus as you are making them out to be. Especially with The Twins…after pick 1-3, there’s more variance than usual it feels like…

[DPG21920]

Dream scenario: Spurs land pick 1 and trade up to land Amen/Ausar as well using future picks

[John B]

Getting the third pick in the lottery and just passing on Miller would be straight up dumb.

Sure, they don't want him, I get that. But not getting another team to trade up for him and give us something extra would be a borderline fireable (no pun intended) offense.

Idk, there's just too much uncertainty, as per usual. I'll more or less ignore everything draft related until the lottery. Too many variables to think about right now.

I agree on letting another team trade up for Miller if he is not the player Spurs like at 2. Getting Amen plus another lottery pick would be awesome.

[Teamduncan21]

Well they can trade down if they dislike miller that much. Like a doncic Trae trade

[Ariel]

Last year there was a strong rumor that the Spurs could be targeting Mark Williams at no. 9, and the player most often linked to the Spurs was Duren, and we passed on both.
If I was on the Spurs FO and didn't have a clear player at no. 2-5, this is exactly the kind of message I'd be trying to send accross the NBA, laying the foundation for a possible future trade down. So this would be consistent with both the Spurs wanting the Thompsons, and NOT wanting them. It's wait and see

[Mr. Body]

I don’t think boards are as consensus as you are making them out to be. Especially with The Twins…after pick 1-3, there’s more variance than usual it feels like…

Yeah, I think I said there would be variance, but I think these will be the top 8. Anyway, at this point this is basically what everyone has, other than maybe Cason Wallace. There are some people sticking Nick Smith in there, but it's not common anymore.

[Ariel]

Personally, I have a feeling that the Spurs aren't really enamored with anyone at the top other than Wemby, and that the likeliest target is actually Hendricks. I didn't watch UCF like at all so he went under the radar for me, but watching clips of him he seems to be the young, long, athletic and smart player who has a good enough floor as is with his defense and shooting, and if he works hard enough on his ball handling, there's no saying where he ends up. The downside is we're picking high enough where that should be baseline. But it wouldn't shock me like at all if we trade down from 2-3 and end up taking Hendricks as high as 4. I'd rather get Cam Whitmore, but I'd be ok with him as well.

[Mr. Body]

Last year there was a strong rumor that the Spurs could be targeting Mark Williams at no. 9, and the player most often linked to the Spurs was Duren, and we passed on both.
If I was on the Spurs FO and didn't have a clear player at no. 2-5, this is exactly the kind of message I'd be trying to send accross the NBA, laying the foundation for a possible future trade down. So this would be consistent with both the Spurs wanting the Thompsons, and NOT wanting them. It's wait and see

Yep. At one point I was feeling like Sochan was potentially rising. If the Spurs leaked out that he was close to their guy, that rise starts catching interest. I don't know if Williams or Duren were actually their interest. Maybe it's wrong to say that a leak was intentional and that it was to divert.

This year, regardless, it's smart to say they're big on players everyone is big on at those spots. The Miller thing is just speculation from an outside scout. If the Spurs want to trade down, then the last thing you want to do is say you don't want that Amen or Ausar. You want to build up value.

The odd thing either about this year or about this position (very new to us) is that the value to these high, non-Wembanyama picks is very long term. I don't think it's likely that Scoot or the twins are going to be able to contribute as starters right away. Maybe Scoot is, dunno.

[The Truth #6]

It doesn't sound like the FO or anyone from the Spurs is telling this to TIMVP but various scouts are giving their opinion. So, it's an opinion. The fact that the Spurs will be picking very high, at least as high as 7, is sort of new territory for them and so I would imagine it's a little harder to hide your intentions. I mean, Wemby is #1, so really we're trying to figure out what 5 or 6 other players they are into, basically.

For me, Hendricks and Whitmore fit less of a dire need so I would probably be most disappointed with those but still be happy we are at least getting more talent.

[Kevin]

So glad we're back to off season talk. Once the dust settled after the trade deadline things got pretty boring in Spurs land. Cannot wait for the lottery.

[Ariel]

33 days, 5 hours, 31 minutes and 12 seconds till we find out if it was all worth it... (W day)

[The Truth #6]

It's interesting that the Primo pick is seen as a mistake only for character issues. I understand not drafting someone who took a gun to a murder. But to me the initial lesson was reaching for a player who isn't really that good. And so to me, I would think that would or should have some sway in picking one of the Thompson Twins. Granted, the twins at least have athleticism so it's not a direct comparison. But, can they actually play basketball at a high level?

[exstatic]

If they're really targeting a twin, then I hope we either get #1 or fall to the bottom of our range. If we pick and keep one, I may have to join the 'Brian Wrong' club.

[Ariel]

If they're really targeting a twin, then I hope we either get #1 or fall to the bottom of our range. If we pick and keep one, I may have to join the 'Brian Wrong' club.
Be careful what you wish for... plenty of assets to trade up. :shootme

[Mr. Body]

It's interesting that the Primo pick is seen as a mistake only for character issues. I understand not drafting someone who took a gun to a murder. But to me the initial lesson was reaching for a player who isn't really that good. And so to me, I would think that would or should have some sway in picking one of the Thompson Twins. Granted, the twins at least have athleticism so it's not a direct comparison. But, can they actually play basketball at a high level?

We really have no idea. He was the youngest player in his draft class. He did a lot of nifty stuff his first Summer League, then struggled in normal games. I don't think this was too unexpected. There's no telling how this year would have gone.

As mentioned in some thread somewhere, it really wasn't a terrible pick because that draft was essentially all but over at that point. It was a really bad draft in terms of depth. It was terrible in that they probably should have taken Sengun. There were also Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, and a couple of others, but Murphy was only pretty good in college and Jones was a surprise. Honestly don't think it was as huge a reach as people say. And declaring Primo's development as over and finished before it started doesn't make sense.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Amen Thompson is an exciting prospect. The athleticism along with the passing chops make him a delightful watch. But his shooting is yuck. If he improves it... a Big IF.. he is going to be a star. a Big IF though.

[Drom John]

I don't understand dropping Miller after the twins.
Draft Miller before the twins, then trade for a twin.
Net gain, lower salary for twin, plus another asset.

[Uriel]

The Spurs have been known to feign interest in certain prospects in the past to hide their true interest in the one they really want. I wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing is happening here with the Thompsons.

[exstatic]

The Spurs have been known to feign interest in certain prospects in the past to hide their true interest in the one they really want. I wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing is happening here with the Thompsons.

They floated a heart issue rumor and had Batum's agent not give anyone his medical records to try to draft him. Absolutely NOT above deception at draft time, and I hope that is what this is.

[benefactor]

Mr. B:loldy...do you keep posting here because your shitty takes get you the attention you want?

[JPB]

Last year there was a strong rumor that the Spurs could be targeting Mark Williams at no. 9, and the player most often linked to the Spurs was Duren, and we passed on both.
If I was on the Spurs FO and didn't have a clear player at no. 2-5, this is exactly the kind of message I'd be trying to send accross the NBA, laying the foundation for a possible future trade down. So this would be consistent with both the Spurs wanting the Thompsons, and NOT wanting them. It's wait and see

Sochan was also linked to the spurs all along. Hell, everyone wanted him here. I wanted Duren but I'm fine with Sochan.

[rascal]

Last year there was a strong rumor that the Spurs could be targeting Mark Williams at no. 9, and the player most often linked to the Spurs was Duren, and we passed on both.
If I was on the Spurs FO and didn't have a clear player at no. 2-5, this is exactly the kind of message I'd be trying to send accross the NBA, laying the foundation for a possible future trade down. So this would be consistent with both the Spurs wanting the Thompsons, and NOT wanting them. It's wait and see

Nope at 9 the player most likely linked to the Spurs was Sochan.

[rascal]

Mr. B:loldy...do you keep posting here because your shitty takes get you the attention you want?

He's managed to convince a few followers like exstatic.

[exstatic]

He's managed to convince a few followers like exstatic.

While I agree with some posters here on some issues, my sourcing is external.

[Ariel]

Sochan was also linked to the spurs all along. Hell, everyone wanted him here. I wanted Duren but I'm fine with Sochan.

Nope at 9 the player most likely linked to the Spurs was Sochan.
Sochan was the most popular pick by Spurs fans, Duren by the media.

[Mr. Body]

Mr. B:loldy...do you keep posting here because your shitty takes get you the attention you want?

What is it you take issue with?

[The Truth #6]

There's definitely logic to picking Amen: they gritted their teeth all season with tanking and want a high upside player, ideally an offensive engine. Most of the other players are role players and that probably doesn't move the needle for the Spurs, they have plenty of upcoming picks for more role players. So yeah, I can see Wemby, Scoot, then Amen would be the priorities if they don't want to settle for role players. Of course Amen could flop but they are well aware of that. Who knows, maybe seeing Sochan improve his shooting got them feeling good about drafting poor shooters? Ha. Even Black is a problematic shooter, just not as horrific as Amen.

Just rambling...

[JPB]

Sochan was the most popular pick by Spurs fans, Duren by the media.

You're probably right for Duren as media fave for spurs' pick but Sochan was always in the convo.

[Mr. Body]

There's definitely logic to picking Amen: they gritted their teeth all season with tanking and want a high upside player, ideally an offensive engine. Most of the other players are role players and that probably doesn't move the needle for the Spurs, they have plenty of upcoming picks for more role players. So yeah, I can see Wemby, Scoot, then Amen would be the priorities if they don't want to settle for role players. Of course Amen could flop but they are well aware of that. Who knows, maybe seeing Sochan improve his shooting got them feeling good about drafting poor shooters? Ha. Even Black is a problematic shooter, just not as horrific as Amen.

Just rambling...

Maybe so. Here is the salary scale for a #2 pick:

$8,242,700
$8,655,000
$9,067,200
$11,442,806 (4th year option)
$14,932,862 (qualifying offer)

These are picks you have to absolutely nail.

I want benefactor to explain what is wrong here.

[Mr. Body]

You're probably right for Duren as media fave for spurs' pick but Sochan was always in the convo.

This feels somewhat revisionist. The support for Sochan here was not uniform at all.

I'd like benefactor to go back and check on that. Let us know, benefactor.

[Mr. Body]

If benefactor can go back and check with eastern conference scouts and let us know his thoughts about these candidates, it would be appreciated.

[Mr. Body]

Also, benefactor, we need to know what you want to do with the second round picks. You should let us know about these by the end of the day.

[Mr. Body]

Benefactor's beliefs about the transition defenses in OTE and how they are in G-League have not been turned in. Those should be available immediately. You've had enough time to work on them.

[Mr. Body]

Benefactor should also give a run-down on what second round picks mean going forward in the NBA. He hasn't said a word about this at all.

[Mr. Body]

Benefactor, we really, really need to know what you think about Jordan Hawkins. Is he as good a shooter as Gradey Dick? What about off the dribble, or moving in space?

[Mr. Body]

Benefactor, I really worry that you're just a stupid slob who has no opinions for yourself and just come barf all over tables at McDonalds and scream like a pathetic baby. Is this true?

[Mr. Body]

Benefactor, is it true your balls are as shriveled as little white raisins, but your mother caresses them daily and swears they are as big as grapefruits?

[benefactor]

Maybe so. Here is the salary scale for a #2 pick:

$8,242,700
$8,655,000
$9,067,200
$11,442,806 (4th year option)
$14,932,862 (qualifying offer)

These are picks you have to absolutely nail.

I want benefactor to explain what is wrong here.
It's because you bring up a irrelevant bullshit like money. There's no guarantee you are going to nail any one pick at number 2....you're basically going on scouting and potential. You're going to have to pay the fucking money anyway. So you bring up shit that doesn't even matter which is a microcosm of your posting history. I said what I said for a reason. There's no reason to get into a discourse with you because any discourse with you ends in some dumb shit that you spew on this forum. So yeah, like my first point you obviously keep posting here for attention because nothing you post here is of actual value. You're one of those posters who says a lot of things and makes people think that you are smart but nothing that is important actually comes from you.

[TD 21]

Not surprised at all. I identified the Thompson twins (and Black) early in the season as "Spurs material" so much so that if they're in position to draft Amen (2-4), I wouldn't be surprised if they try to trade for Ausar, too.

Amen over Miller is obvious and I wouldn't put Amen over Henderson past them either.

The twins not only fit their narrow minded ethos, but they've seemingly been looking for a big play maker to run (but not dominate to the point of being heliocentric) the offense for a while.

I don't see Amen as having "franchise player" potential though; I see Iguodala, a complimentary star/elite role player if his shot graduates from terrible to below average.

[benefactor]

Also, benefactor, we need to know what you want to do with the second round picks. You should let us know about these by the end of the day.


Benefactor's beliefs about the transition defenses in OTE and how they are in G-League have not been turned in. Those should be available immediately. You've had enough time to work on them.


Benefactor should also give a run-down on what second round picks mean going forward in the NBA. He hasn't said a word about this at all.


If benefactor can go back and check with eastern conference scouts and let us know his thoughts about these candidates, it would be appreciated.


Benefactor, we really, really need to know what you think about Jordan Hawkins. Is he as good a shooter as Gradey Dick? What about off the dribble, or moving in space?


Benefactor, I really worry that you're just a stupid slob who has no opinions for yourself and just come barf all over tables at McDonalds and scream like a pathetic baby. Is this true?


Benefactor, is it true your balls are as shriveled as little white raisins, but your mother caresses them daily and swears they are as big as grapefruits?
:lol meltdown. I spent years casting my pearls before garbage posting swine like you. I don't have to prove anything. But you are also a proven commodity here. As much as I don't agree with TD21 at least he's gotten better with his takes. Yours are trash and always have been.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Well, it's official, we're drafting Brandon Miller. This team tends to do the opposite of what's expected at draft day. Guess I'll order my Miller jersey and stock up on some Miller Lite.

[benefactor]

Not surprised at all. I identified the Thompson twins (and Black) early in the season as "Spurs material" so much so that if they're in position to draft Amen (2-4), I wouldn't be surprised if they try to trade for Ausar, too.

Amen over Miller is obvious and I wouldn't put Amen over Henderson past them either.

The twins not only fit their narrow minded ethos, but they've seemingly been looking for a big play maker to run (but not dominate to the point of being heliocentric) the offense for a while.

I don't see Amen as having "franchise player" potential though; I see Iguodala, a complimentary star/elite role player if his shot graduates from terrible to below average.
I can somewhat agree with this. I think Scoot has to be the pick at two though. If they take Amen it is what it is but passing on Scoot would be a move they'd regret.

[mo7888]

Dream scenario: Spurs land pick 1 and trade up to land Amen/Ausar as well using future picks

My dream scenario in getting Wembanyama is a little crazier... I'd like to land him then trade Keldon for a pick that could net us Hendricks, who I think would be great next to Wembanyama long term. Then use our 2nds and a future first to move in and get Jalen Hood-Schifino or Wallace.

I know all that would never happen, but Wembanyama, Hendricks, Sochan, Vassell, and Hood-Schifino looks like a real future to me..

[The Truth #6]

Maybe so. Here is the salary scale for a #2 pick:

$8,242,700
$8,655,000
$9,067,200
$11,442,806 (4th year option)
$14,932,862 (qualifying offer)

These are picks you have to absolutely nail.

I want benefactor to explain what is wrong here.

Wemby is the only surefire. Sounds like you really want to trade back but aren’t saying it.

[Joseph Kony]

Mrs Body melting down for getting called out over his retarded takes :lmao

:cry why doesnt ST love me like timvp :cry

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Not surprised by the twins love either. It’s impossible for me to evaluate them but we all know Spurs do their due diligence on prospects like that and they have shown the desire to go with boom or bust over safer picks.

Also, this draft, originally perceived as great, has lost a lot of its initial shine with every bad game the prospects have had, and there were many of those. I can’t really place the twins anywhere in my personal big board because I’ve literally no clue but if the Spurs pick one of them in the 3-7 range I’d feel good about it considering the alternatives.

[Joseph Kony]

:lol meltdown. I spent years casting my pearls before garbage posting swine like you. I don't have to prove anything. But you are also a proven commodity here. As much as I don't agree with TD21 at least he's gotten better with his takes. Yours are trash and always have been.

:lmao what a fucking clown. Dude needs to tampon his pussy asap. it's hilarious watching this fucking dolt act like shit doesnt stink but crap all over anyone elses assessment of players that dont agree with him. dude wants so bad to be like timvp, its fucking pathetic tbh

[Joseph Kony]

On topic: I knew SA would shy away from Miller for obvious reasons but if its solely on the Alabama connections that just stupid...he will probably end up being the 2nd best player in this draft. Spurs would be stupid to pass on him at #3 if he's there, especially since they gambled on gangbanger Murray in the past

[exstatic]

On topic: I knew SA would shy away from Miller for obvious reasons but if its solely on the Alabama connections that just stupid...he will probably end up being the 2nd best player in this draft. Spurs would be stupid to pass on him at #3 if he's there, especially since they gambled on gangbanger Murray in the past

My thought is if they don't pick him, it won't be because of public perception, it will be because they dug up something that cuts through a whitewash attempt. You can believe they will or maybe already have done their due diligence.

[The Truth #6]

I’m thinking Murray at 29 felt like a better risk/reward for them. I have no idea about Miller. It’s possible Miller is ok but impressionable but the Spurs are reluctant to deal with his potential entourage and the bad optics.

[TD 21]

Amen over Henderson would not only be insane for the obvious, which is that no team is more in need of an offensive centerpiece than this, but it would signal three other troubling signs . . .

1) They're scared shitless, mostly from Scumbag and Primo, but to a lesser extent Murray and even Aldridge and DeRozan.

2 ) It'd be the ultimate attempt to double down on their narrow minded "culture" and "system".

3 ) Which would equal Pop being more involved and having more say than the perception recently, likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

[duncan2150]

I'm not surprised by this board and i trust it tough it's early and a lot of things can change in the next two months.

Wemby no doubt, Scoot is the no 2 ( Amen can clim there) and the Thompsons after them. For the twins, i was low on them because of the OTE but intrigued lately after seeing some games. Maybe i'm more an Ausar fan than Amen because the shoot of the second is totally broken ( never see that in a top 5 prospect maybe ? ) but the tools are totally there.

Then if we draft 6-7 i'm a Walker or Hendricks believer.

We'll see what the workouts will show us.

[james evans]

doesn't matter who they pick. Pop is sending him to the G league for the season hahaha

[Maddog]

doesn't matter who they pick. Pop is sending him to the G league for the season hahaha

Just like this years picks

[JPB]

Yeah, they're gonna love Wemby in Austin.

[baseline bum]

Haven't the Spurs been super tight lipped about who they're interested in after losing Nenad Krstic to the Nets by a pick or two when the Nets found out how badly the Spurs wanted him? Not sure I'd buy this Thompson hype.

[Ariel]

I'm pleasantly surprised at how many people were dazzled by watching the Thompson's games.
Can I ask you to point me where I can go and take a look at those games myself?

[itzsoweezee]

Not taking miller of the spurs have the second or third pick would be franchise malpractice. I don’t care if they don’t want him, a ton of other teams do

[Russ]

Thanks timvp! :toast

[Em-City]

Not surprised at all. I identified the Thompson twins (and Black) early in the season as "Spurs material" so much so that if they're in position to draft Amen (2-4), I wouldn't be surprised if they try to trade for Ausar, too.

Amen over Miller is obvious and I wouldn't put Amen over Henderson past them either.

The twins not only fit their narrow minded ethos, but they've seemingly been looking for a big play maker to run (but not dominate to the point of being heliocentric) the offense for a while.

I don't see Amen as having "franchise player" potential though; I see Iguodala, a complimentary star/elite role player if his shot graduates from terrible to below average.
Why is miller not 2-3 above the twins? Is it just a spurs thing or is there a consensus across the league?

[mo7888]

Why is miller not 2-3 above the twins? Is it just a spurs thing or is there a consensus across the league?

Different people rate him differently. Everyone mostly agrees that the twins have tons of upside with that athleticism (bust possibilities too). Does Miller have have alot of upside or is he pretty much what he is? (An excellent shooter and what else does he bring?)

How you answer those questions determine if you have Miller ahead of the twins or not and those questions are being contemplated in FO's around the league.

[Em-City]

Different people rate him differently. Everyone mostly agrees that the twins have tons of upside with that athleticism (bust possibilities too). Does Miller have have alot of upside or is he pretty much what he is? (An excellent shooter and what else does he bring?)

How you answer those questions determine if you have Miller ahead of the twins or not and those questions are being contemplated in FO's around the league.
Thanks.
It just seems crazy for spurs to pass on a guy who looks like he could have Jason Tatum upside if it is indeed the gun incident that is the sole reason.

[Dejounte]

Thompsons + GG Jackson have been on my wild card tier. Just hard for me to see it at this point. I think the Spurs like to think outside of the box, but this pick would be out of the galaxy. Not sure where all this Spurs-culture reputation is coming from for the twins. Where are you reading that from? TD 21

I do agree, however, that if that shot can be miraculously fixed AND he (meaning either twin) can play organized basketball then he would become one of the most exciting players in all of NBA. It’s sort of like how people are in awe of Morant’s athleticism.

[Dejounte]

From what I’ve read, Scoot is the most Spurs-material in terms of personality and actions off the court, tbh

[Dejounte]

There's definitely logic to picking Amen: they gritted their teeth all season with tanking and want a high upside player, ideally an offensive engine. Most of the other players are role players and that probably doesn't move the needle for the Spurs, they have plenty of upcoming picks for more role players. So yeah, I can see Wemby, Scoot, then Amen would be the priorities if they don't want to settle for role players. Of course Amen could flop but they are well aware of that. Who knows, maybe seeing Sochan improve his shooting got them feeling good about drafting poor shooters? Ha. Even Black is a problematic shooter, just not as horrific as Amen.

Just rambling...

This is my thinking.

People say, “oh, well the Spurs drafted Sochan last year and Black is very similar” except, however, what Sochan is doing is more unique because of his size thus making his upside greater than what Black would ever hope to be. IMO, with a pick this high you aim for a player that shows more upside than that. Black’s lack of great physical attributes (no spectacular athleticism or crazy wingspan) is what makes him look like a low upside prospect. I’m not trying to draft a Derrick White with this pick. I mean, I would, if all other options are unavailable or the other prospects start throwing out red flags. Black is solid, but doesn’t have the “wow” factor.

[JPB]

Thanks.
It just seems crazy for spurs to pass on a guy who looks like he could have Jason Tatum upside if it is indeed the gun incident that is the sole reason.

The death of young mother incident.

[baseline bum]

I do agree, however, that if that shot can be miraculously fixed AND he (meaning either twin) can play organized basketball then he would become one of the most exciting players in all of NBA. It’s sort of like how people are in awe of Morant’s athleticism.

Saw this short a while back that makes it look like Ausar's shot has been fixed


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgybjiiaf6Y

[exstatic]

Can’t help paralleling the twins with Sharpe, another Uber athlete who was one of the worst players in the league last year.

[Chinook]

So long as the Spurs don't "fall in love" with a prospect enough to overlook credible issues, I trust them to make a good pick. The good news is that they should have access to basically every prospect outside of Wemby if they don't get the first-overall pick. The Spurs are currently sitting at a 73-percent chance at getting a top-five pick. MAYBE Henderson doesn't feel the need to work out for a fifth-slotted Spurs, but with trades a possibility, I expect the Spurs to have way more access than they've had in years. Get second, third and fourth opinions, not just from multiple sources but complied by multiple sources to avoid someone having a blind spot ala Wright with Primo. If you do an honest job of evaluating, and you determine Miller is the best guy, pick him.

I have seen basically nothing about any of these players yet. They all seem like fine enough picks. I don't think the team should be blowing their load trying to get another bite unless someone's truly special. Later in the draft I wouldn't be against them trying to use 33, 43 and some minor assets/salary space to grab a late first to attack a position of need (PG or center specifically if they don't grab one at the top). I'm a firm believer that they need to in the very least add competition so that guys like Champ, Mamu and Bassey don't just get to waltz into next season on the roster. The team is too bad to treat their roster as if it's full of keepers. But this building process isn't going to be over this year, even if they draft Wemby. I wouldn't want them to be short-sighted.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Amen over Henderson would not only be insane for the obvious, which is that no team is more in need of an offensive centerpiece than this, but it would signal three other troubling signs . . .

1) They're scared shitless, mostly from Scumbag and Primo, but to a lesser extent Murray and even Aldridge and DeRozan.

2 ) It'd be the ultimate attempt to double down on their narrow minded "culture" and "system".

3 ) Which would equal Pop being more involved and having more say than the perception recently, likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Either this or, you know, they might think the taller PG who can’t shoot has more upside than the shorter one.

[mo7888]

Thanks.
It just seems crazy for spurs to pass on a guy who looks like he could have Jason Tatum upside if it is indeed the gun incident that is the sole reason.

I don't see Jason Tatum upside myself. I do like him alot and have him as 3rd best in this draft, but I do find myself wavering on that when I weigh his upside against others.

[mo7888]

Thompsons + GG Jackson have been on my wild card tier. Just hard for me to see it at this point. I think the Spurs like to think outside of the box, but this pick would be out of the galaxy. Not sure where all this Spurs-culture reputation is coming from for the twins. Where are you reading that from? TD 21

I do agree, however, that if that shot can be miraculously fixed AND he (meaning either twin) can play organized basketball then he would become one of the most exciting players in all of NBA. It’s sort of like how people are in awe of Morant’s athleticism.

I like Jackson alot and we don't talk about him enough here. I wouldn’t take him with our top pick, but I'd definitely be opportunistic about trading up from our 2nd's to get him if he falls a little.

[CGD]

The death of young mother incident.

Exactly. To be honest, as a fan I’d feel some kinda way about the Spurs drafting him absent a much clearer and cleaner picture of what happened.

[mo7888]

So long as the Spurs don't "fall in love" with a prospect enough to overlook credible issues, I trust them to make a good pick. The good news is that they should have access to basically every prospect outside of Wemby if they don't get the first-overall pick. The Spurs are currently sitting at a 73-percent chance at getting a top-five pick. MAYBE Henderson doesn't feel the need to work out for a fifth-slotted Spurs, but with trades a possibility, I expect the Spurs to have way more access than they've had in years. Get second, third and fourth opinions, not just from multiple sources but complied by multiple sources to avoid someone having a blind spot ala Wright with Primo. If you do an honest job of evaluating, and you determine Miller is the best guy, pick him.

I have seen basically nothing about any of these players yet. They all seem like fine enough picks. I don't think the team should be blowing their load trying to get another bite unless someone's truly special. Later in the draft I wouldn't be against them trying to use 33, 43 and some minor assets/salary space to grab a late first to attack a position of need (PG or center specifically if they don't grab one at the top). I'm a firm believer that they need to in the very least add competition so that guys like Champ, Mamu and Bassey don't just get to waltz into next season on the roster. The team is too bad to treat their roster as if it's full of keepers. But this building process isn't going to be over this year, even if they draft Wemby. I wouldn't want them to be short-sighted.

Realistically, I don't think anyone wants to trade multiple future firsts to get a 2nd top 10 pick. Most scenarios getting us two lottery picks have to do with trading back from 2 or 3 with Orlando or moving Keldon (with smaller assets) for a 2nd lottery pick. I think we should consider those options if they are available to us. I'd also be open to packaging 2nd rd picks (maybe the Charlotte protected 1st) plus salary relief (Miami with Lowry for example) to move up into the 1st as well. Currently, we have 3 picks in this draft and I don't think we should add 3 rookies to this roster.

[The Truth #6]

This is my thinking.

People say, “oh, well the Spurs drafted Sochan last year and Black is very similar” except, however, what Sochan is doing is more unique because of his size thus making his upside greater than what Black would ever hope to be. IMO, with a pick this high you aim for a player that shows more upside than that. Black’s lack of great physical attributes (no spectacular athleticism or crazy wingspan) is what makes him look like a low upside prospect. I’m not trying to draft a Derrick White with this pick. I mean, I would, if all other options are unavailable or the other prospects start throwing out red flags. Black is solid, but doesn’t have the “wow” factor.

Oh, I hear you. I guess my point is that if we want to avoid role players to get some possible wow factor player we may have to gamble on someone if we’re picking 4-7, or do you see it differently?

[Maddog]

I don't see Jason Tatum upside myself. I do like him alot and have him as 3rd best in this draft, but I do find myself wavering on that when I weigh his upside against others.

I only saw him play in the tournament and per reports he was injured- but I do wonder if he's not far from his max. I'm more for a swing for the fences at this level

[Brazil]

Yeah, they're gonna love Wemby in Austin.

:lol to help him get over of himself

[DPG21920]

Thompsons + GG Jackson have been on my wild card tier. Just hard for me to see it at this point. I think the Spurs like to think outside of the box, but this pick would be out of the galaxy. Not sure where all this Spurs-culture reputation is coming from for the twins. Where are you reading that from? TD 21

I do agree, however, that if that shot can be miraculously fixed AND he (meaning either twin) can play organized basketball then he would become one of the most exciting players in all of NBA. It’s sort of like how people are in awe of Morant’s athleticism.

Ben Simmons/Rondo comp for Amen?

I will say I don’t know that Amen is anywhere close to the natural PG that Simmons/Rondo were. He has good vision and handle etc..but not quite sure I would say he’s a legit pure natural PG.

[Ariel]

Saw this short a while back that makes it look like Ausar's shot has been fixed


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgybjiiaf6Y
Really interesting clips posted by surely unbiased Overtime Mikey :rolleyes
In other news, Ben Simmons is the new Larry Bird:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K_UZBt45yI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1OqoRmsF_8

[EricB]

Haven't the Spurs been super tight lipped about who they're interested in after losing Nenad Krstic to the Nets by a pick or two when the Nets found out how badly the Spurs wanted him? Not sure I'd buy this Thompson hype.

nenad, Batum, Jared Dudley…

[JPB]

They wanted Gobert too, but Utah picked him right under their nose.

[spurs10]

Thanks timvp! Will be interesting seeing how things shake out, especially the ping-pong balls. I doubt Miller is as 'impossible to keep,' as said here. The Primo comparison doesn't seem like it should matter much.

[scott]

I am becoming increasing comfortable with a Thompson as the pick (assuming we aren’t picking 1 of course) based on the same logic of why I don’t spend time lamenting picking Primo over Sengun.

Primary to any other needs the Spurs have is the need for a star. We can’t have a team built completely of role players. For whatever reason, the Spurs saw that in Primo and that’s what led them to draft him. I’m fine with that, because I think Sengun is just yet another role player (albeit a nice one).

After Wemby, I don’t know who out of Scoot, the Thompson, Miller or Whitmore will be a star - but that group seems to be where the most likely possibilities live. Of course someone may get picked 15th and become a future MVP, but Spurs fans will spontaneously combust if we draft someone projected to go 15th with the 3rd pick.

So we have the 5 players mentioned above as our most likely potential future stars (anyone missing?), I’ll let the Spurs do the work of ranking them, since they’ve proven time and time again they’re good at this sort of thing. If it happens to be a Thompson, then we’ll role with it.

[Chinook]

This shit just came up on my Google.

https://www.sacurrent.com/arts/san-antonio-spurs-player-jeremy-sochan-could-be-heading-to-dallas-league-analysts-speculate-31489240?media=AMP+HTML

Has to be the dumbest thing I've read in a minute.

[Dejounte]

, but Spurs fans will spontaneously combust if we draft someone projected to go 15th with the 3rd pick.



This part shouldnt even matter. The Spurs shouldnt factor in what their wishy washy fans think where prospects should be drafted in their decision-making. And they historically havent. If they feel confident about a prospect becoming a future MVP, go for it. The fans will forget after 20 games or one season, however long it takes for that player to show it.

The same fans would have passed on Nikola Jokic, Giannis, Kawhi, and whoever. It’s ridiculous. You gotta make bold decisions to prevent guys like that from slipping past you.

[scott]

This part shouldnt even matter. The Spurs shouldnt factor in what their wishy washy fans think where prospects should be drafted in their decision-making. And they historically havent. If they feel confident about a prospect becoming a future MVP, go for it. The fans will forget after 20 games or one season, however long it takes for that player to show it.

The same fans would have passed on Nikola Jokic, Giannis, Kawhi, and whoever. It’s ridiculous. You gotta make bold decisions to prevent guys like that from slipping past you.

I agree, and I certainly doubt that the Spurs FO reads Spurs talk… but I don’t see them taking someone that is generally regarded as a pick in the teens as #3. Maybe at #7 though… Anyway, not the most important point and yeah, the Spurs FO should definitely do what their process tells them, not fans.

I also think that the Spurs would certainly be smart enough to know that if the guy they really want is someone who will go 10 picks later, than they can trade down - even if they sell relatively low, in order to get that player instead. At the same time, you can’t always find a trade partner.

But yeah, your point taken.

[exstatic]

This shit just came up on my Google.

https://www.sacurrent.com/arts/san-antonio-spurs-player-jeremy-sochan-could-be-heading-to-dallas-league-analysts-speculate-31489240?media=AMP+HTML

Has to be the dumbest thing I've read in a minute.

It’s a reference to a bleacher report story. Nothing to see. Move along.

[Dejounte]

I agree, and I certainly doubt that the Spurs FO reads Spurs talk… but I don’t see them taking someone that is generally regarded as a pick in the teens as #3. Maybe at #7 though… Anyway, not the most important point and yeah, the Spurs FO should definitely do what their process tells them, not fans.

I also think that the Spurs would certainly be smart enough to know that if the guy they really want is someone who will go 10 picks later, than they can trade down - even if they sell relatively low, in order to get that player instead. At the same time, you can’t always find a trade partner.

But yeah, your point taken.

RE: 10 picks later
Since I don’t think they have premonition, even that in itself is a big risk. Who is to say one of those 9 teams won’t take that player before the 10th team they could possibly have be a trade partner with? Then you just lost a future star because you’re concerned about getting some value. Again, a concept I just hugely disagree with.

[MultiTroll]

This part shouldnt even matter. The Spurs shouldnt factor in what their wishy washy fans think where prospects should be drafted in their decision-making.


Anyway, not the most important point and yeah, the Spurs FO should definitely do what their process tells them, not fans.
Exactly.
Would we have gotten Dougie McDermott long term at 14 a year?
Patty Mills for fiddy bidding against no one?
Paid off LMA to play for the Nyets?
Signed Brent Forms not once but twice?
We could go on.

Obviously lets leave it up to CIA Pop and the modern FO.

[Dejounte]

Exactly.
Would we have gotten Dougie McDermott long term at 14 a year?
Patty Mills for fiddy bidding against no one?
Paid off LMA to play for the Nyets?
Signed Brent Forms not once but twice?
We could go on.

Obviously lets leave it up to CIA Pop and the modern FO.

tell me, what do you even like about this organization if you disapprove so much of the decisions they make that you can’t bring yourself to trust any moves they make in the future? What makes any of this pleasant for you? Genuinely curious.

[Seventyniner]

This shit just came up on my Google.

https://www.sacurrent.com/arts/san-antonio-spurs-player-jeremy-sochan-could-be-heading-to-dallas-league-analysts-speculate-31489240?media=AMP+HTML

Has to be the dumbest thing I've read in a minute.

Agreed. The only way I see the Spurs trading Sochan to the Mavs is if it's part of a Doncic package. And even then I put the odds on it happening at somewhere around half a percent.

[scott]

RE: 10 picks later
Since I don’t think they have premonition, even that in itself is a big risk. Who is to say one of those 9 teams won’t take that player before the 10th team they could possibly have be a trade partner with? Then you just lost a future star because you’re concerned about getting some value. Again, a concept I just hugely disagree with.

We’re in agreement here probably more than you think. This was exactly my thoughts when they took Primo and everyone talked about how we could have got him later. Well, we weren’t picking later. If he was the highest guy on the board, then you take him if you don’t want to run the risk because they team behind you might have him.

But when you’re picking 3 (in this hypothetical) the stakes are higher and most GMs don’t have the balls to take a guy generally ranked 15th, because unless it does work out, that shit is getting you fired. Is that the way they should look at it? Probably not, but I’ve heard this talked about about NFL scouts (from former NFL scouts on various podcasts) - there is a lot of fear and hesitation that goes into standing up for your guy against “conventional wisdom” - because if you fuck it up and your bold pick fizzles out while the consensus guy goes on to do exactly what everyone thought he would do… your ass is getting fired.

This becomes less of an issue and Pick 11 than it does at pick 2 or 3. And Maybe Brian Wright has enough security to where he can make a bold move like that. But I think largely this is why teams (incorrectly, it might be added) pay attention to outside opinions, mocks, the “consensus”.

In this draft, I’m not sure we have too much to worry about unless we drop all the way to 7. Like I said, in any event I’m going to be trusting the Spurs way more than anything I read up til then anyway.

[MultiTroll]

tell me, what do you even like about this organization if you disapprove so much of the decisions they make that you can’t bring yourself to trust any moves they make in the future? What makes any of this pleasant for you? Genuinely curious.
1. Timmy Duncan. The old FO moves including GNob, Parker, GOAT playoff role player Robert Horry and more.

2, That's a goalpost move by you. Never said i did not trust any moves the post Duncan PATFO has made. During the Duncan era many superb moves were made. Robert Horry off the bench, Stevie Kerr as a low paid sub. Man From Nazr in what should have been a return to Tall Balls and a 2006 Championship.
However they've made plenty of major screw ups esp since Duncs retired that even average SpurFan on SpursTalk would have easily said avoid.

3. I knew in my heart 2014 was the last Championship for at least 10 years. Knew Popped would not retire as promised when Duncan did. Knew Porker would try to to keep it going as "his" team and fail.
Kwa Leonard as the new leader was beautiful for a year and a pleasant surprise. Until it all got Zaza'd.

4. It's not pleasant, but because i have completely adjusted my expectation level the disappointment is tolerable.
4a. I make a sizeable income selling products to Pop Sniffers.

5. I will do a poll and i am genuinely curious, i will not be trolling. Coming up soon.

[MultiTroll]

Why is this ad appearing?
Is timvp getting in touch with his girly side?
https://s0.2mdn.net/simgad/10945264682558657746

and don't give me the "It's your google surfing history" nonsense.
Don't, won't use Google.
So there.

[tonight...you]

Why is this ad appearing?
Is timvp getting in touch with his girly side?
https://s0.2mdn.net/simgad/10945264682558657746

and don't give me the "It's your google surfing history" nonsense.
Don't, won't use Google.
So there.
Maybe Adblock sites. I don't get anything.

[Ariel]

This part shouldnt even matter. The Spurs shouldnt factor in what their wishy washy fans think where prospects should be drafted in their decision-making. And they historically havent. If they feel confident about a prospect becoming a future MVP, go for it. The fans will forget after 20 games or one season, however long it takes for that player to show it.

The same fans would have passed on Nikola Jokic, Giannis, Kawhi, and whoever. It’s ridiculous. You gotta make bold decisions to prevent guys like that from slipping past you.
Giannis was taken at 15, he was much less of a gamble than Primo at 11. At least he had genuine size and athleticism and his perceived potential was enough for Masai Ujiri (same guy who drafted Siakam at the late first, OG Anunoby in the 20s, picked up undrafted Van Vleet, took Scottie Barnes over Suggs, etc.) to try everything he could to move up to get him but couldn't. Kawhi was projected to be taken higher than he was, taking him at 15 wasn't bold. Most fans would have passed on Jokic, sure... as did PATFO. Point being, great picks are not usually guys that are boldly taken ahead of where they were projected, but guys that slip for some stupid reason and someone takes advantage of that (like Dejounte, Keldon or Malaki for us). Reaching for someone is hardly a guarantee of success, and being bold is more often than not a euphemism for stupidity.

[Light]

Why is this ad appearing?
Is timvp getting in touch with his girly side?
https://s0.2mdn.net/simgad/10945264682558657746

and don't give me the "It's your google surfing history" nonsense.
Don't, won't use Google.
So there.


This is a display ad, so you are correct in that it's not related to your browser searches. Unlike search ads, display ads can be used to proactively target specific audiences. You meet whatever audience criteria that was set for this ad campaign, based on the demographic and geographic information gained from your general web activity.

Target audiences tend to be narrow in scope, so it's unlikely (but not impossible) for another person on this site to see the same display ad at the same time as you.

[Dejounte]

Giannis was taken at 15, he was much less of a gamble than Primo at 11. At least he had genuine size and athleticism and his perceived potential was enough for Masai Ujiri (same guy who drafted Siakam at the late first, OG Anunoby in the 20s, picked up undrafted Van Vleet, took Scottie Barnes over Suggs, etc.) to try everything he could to move up to get him but couldn't. Kawhi was projected to be taken higher than he was, taking him at 15 wasn't bold. Most fans would have passed on Jokic, sure... as did PATFO. Point being, great picks are not usually guys that are boldly taken ahead of where they were projected, but guys that slip for some stupid reason and someone takes advantage of that (like Dejounte, Keldon or Malaki for us). Reaching for someone is hardly a guarantee of success, and being bold is more often than not a euphemism for stupidity.

This isn’t what I was saying at all. Giannis being taken at 15 IS the problem because 14 other teams passed on him. He should have went first. Same thing for Kawhi. Same thing for Jokic. If any team saw even an ounce of what they would become now, those teams should have ignored projections and just drafted them. You’re simplifying it with the, “guys that slip for some stupid reason” comment. You know exactly why. Any team that would have taken those three guys (and a bunch of other guys in history who turned out as great players) much earlier would have made the right pick with boldness. It’s not about being picked as late as they were and applauding the team that drafted them that late. That’s the opposite of what I’m saying.

Imagine a world where Giannis was drafted 1-4 in his draft over Anthony Bennet, Oladipo, Porter, and Zeller… Imagine the initial outrage by Cleveland fans… but they would have made every bit the right choice for what he eventually becomes.

Now, let’s take it a step further and pretend it’s 2013 and it’s actually the Spurs drafting 3rd in that draft. You hear about this Giannis kid getting buzz about getting picked around mid-lottery. The Spurs MAYBE have a trade partner at 16th. Ok, draft night comes! The team with the 16th pick has accepted our deal and we’re for sure picking Giannis with it. With the 15th pick, the Bucks pick…. Giannis! Aw fuck! Now we lost our guy and as a result of overthinking, we lost a future champion and Hall of Famer who we should have picked with the 3rd pick anyway because we were trying to be opportunists.

If you ask me what’s stupid, it’s drafting Bennet, Oladipo, Porter, and Zeller in the top four (and if you feel Oladipo turned out okay, we can say Alex Len or Nerlens Noel) all because they did good in college all year long and had the mock draft hype going into draft night. There’s going to be four such players in THIS draft with the same reputation that people are having hype over that will end up the same way. Four guys in the lottery right now who never had hope to meet their projected ceiling by fans and scouts. Yet, there are guys projected way later, like Gobert, who became 10x the player those four became and should have definitely been the pick instead.

[CGD]

Why is this ad appearing?
Is timvp getting in touch with his girly side?
https://s0.2mdn.net/simgad/10945264682558657746

and don't give me the "It's your google surfing history" nonsense.
Don't, won't use Google.
So there.

do you have a trip planned to Vegas this April?

[cjw]

The Spurs will have plenty of time to figure things out if they’re sitting at 2 or 3. At 2, I think they still probably go with Scoot.

But teams will be lining up to trade up to 2 or 3 if they miss out, and they’ll evaluate if they can trade down to a spot where they can take one of the Thompsons and bring back assets.

Agree there is zero chance Miller plays for this team. But if the Spurs are at 3 (heck some put him at 2), it would be foolish not to create a bidding war.

If you can turn the third pick into one of the Thompsons plus another young player you like (possibly take on some salary trash) or future pick swaps (plural not singular), or a future first, the opportunity will be there over simply over drafting.

[cjw]

Agreed. The only way I see the Spurs trading Sochan to the Mavs is if it's part of a Doncic package. And even then I put the odds on it happening at somewhere around half a percent.

You only trade Sochan if you’re getting back a lottery pick better than ten AND another future first. The Mavs can’t offer that. And even then I don’t do it. Sorry Cuban, enjoy your one man show with sideshow Kyrie.

[vander]

IMO it's Wemby or trade down.
I don't like the idea of a 6'2 PG as a centerpiece unless he has god-like 3 point shooting. Like would Tony Parker be worth a top 5 pick in today's NBA?

[BacktoBasics]

You only trade Sochan if you’re getting back a lottery pick better than ten AND another future first. The Mavs can’t offer that. And even then I don’t do it. Sorry Cuban, enjoy your one man show with sideshow Kyrie.

I don’t think I’d even do that. Unless it’s a top 3 pick. There’s no player in this draft from 4-8 that I’d want over Sochan and an additional 1st is likely to be out if the lottery.

[K...]

The giannis/kawhi stuff elides the truth that both players needed the right team to develop. But thats more of indictment of teams which never develop stars. But yeah the quest for HOF guys is probably best served my not homing in on “necessary“ stats like height, 3pt shot, etc and look for totality of skills,intelligence, hard work, and strength. This is how primo makes sense over sengun.

[Uriel]

Obviously every situation is different, but the Spurs historically have not been known to “trade down” or create “bidding wars” for their picks. They just pick outright whoever they want with their selection, even if it’s considered a reach (see: Primo, Joshua).

[K...]

Obviously every situation is different, but the Spurs historically have not been known to “trade down” or create “bidding wars” for their picks. They just pick outright whoever they want with their selection, even if it’s considered a reach (see: Primo, Joshua).

demand for picks after top 8 decreases exponentially , and the spurs have been talent starved for nearly 20 years. They really don';t need extra picks over top talent so i agree there will be no trade. But the bust potential is extra high with top 5 picks so it's really scary if we don't get a tyop2 pick

[exstatic]

demand for picks after top 8 decreases exponentially , and the spurs have been talent starved for nearly 20 years. They really don';t need extra picks over top talent so i agree there will be no trade. But the bust potential is extra high with top 5 picks so it's really scary if we don't get a tyop2 pick

I think when most posters are talking about trading down, they’re not thinking of dropping from 2,3 to 10, but from 2,3 to 4,5,6 and grab another pick around 10-12.

[mo7888]

I think when most posters are talking about trading down, they’re not thinking of dropping from 2,3 to 10, but from 2,3 to 4,5,6 and grab another pick around 10-12.

Exactly

[JPB]

I think when most posters are talking about trading down, they’re not thinking of dropping from 2,3 to 10, but from 2,3 to 4,5,6 and grab another pick around 10-12.

I'm not doing this personally.

[John B]

IMO it's Wemby or trade down.
I don't like the idea of a 6'2 PG as a centerpiece unless he has god-like 3 point shooting. Like would Tony Parker be worth a top 5 pick in today's NBA?

I’m okay with Scoot at #2 if the Spurs are confident that they can help his shot. For what I’ve read about Scoot, he exemplifies the Spurs culture, driven, unselfish player who is a team first. The Spurs will have plenty of time to evaluate his mechanics at workout, and Scoot will equally have ample chance to prove himself.

As much as I like Miller as a scorer and a knockout shooter, Pop likes his players who can pass. Scoot, Amen, Walker are better at top 7, while Hendricks can also shoot and a better all-around defender. Of course, if Spurs don’t like Miller at #2, they need to explore trading down and maximize what they can get for Miller.

[K...]

I think when most posters are talking about trading down, they’re not thinking of dropping from 2,3 to 10, but from 2,3 to 4,5,6 and grab another pick around 10-12.

uriel was trying to argue that past drafting is evidence of the current spurs meta, and it's just not the same team, GM, or draft scenario. I've previously said the spurs might just suck drafting top 10 because all their experience is uncovering hidden gems, overlooked upperclassmen, and guys who fall on draft day.

As to the point the smell test on all those trade downs, is "do the spurs really think they don't need top talent such that the risk of a costly bust is fine, or are they cowards who like presti want to cower in mediocrity sitting on huge pick haul" It's funny when people say thopson, miller etc are such bad picks that the spurs won't want them but another team will pay two lottery picks for. That's just dumb and dishonest. There are two likelier scenarios where the spurs trade for a later pick and a future pick, or a player and future pick.

Occam's razor is that the spurs pick an established top player with a top 5 pick. Spursfans want to pretend the spurs have a big board with wemby on top and just a massive inkblot after that.

[exstatic]

So, the play in tournament left three ties in the lottery: OKC/CHI at 42 losses, IND/WAS at 47 losses, and SAS/HOU at 60 losses.

May the odds ever be in your favor.

[JPB]

I don't think spurs need another 2 good but not great youngsters to add up to the pile. Pick a guy you believe has star potential (Wemby, Scoot, Thompson bros...) then try to develop him as such.

[Seventyniner]

Saying that Giannis should have gone #1 is results-oriented thinking. 20/20 hindsight.

Let's say a team thinks Player A has a 30% chance of (eventually) getting multiple All-Star selections, while Player B has a 10% chance. All else being equal they will draft Player A every time.

If Player B ends up actually making multiple All-Star teams and Player A doesn't, does that mean the team made a bad decision? My opinion is that the answer is no. Maybe whatever model they used (doesn't have to be strictly or even partially mathematical) was flawed, but based on the best information and judgment they had at draft time, they made the right choice.

[TD 21]

Not sure where all this Spurs-culture reputation is coming from for the twins. Where are you reading that from? TD 21 (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17781)

It wasn't something I read so much as my perception of the twins and what we know of what the Spurs look for.



Either this or, you know, they might think the taller PG who can’t shoot has more upside than the shorter one.

Thompson isn't a PG, he's more like a point forward and unlike Henderson, he looks more like a complimentary than centerpiece type.

[exstatic]

uriel was trying to argue that past drafting is evidence of the current spurs meta, and it's just not the same team, GM, or draft scenario. I've previously said the spurs might just suck drafting top 10 because all their experience is uncovering hidden gems, overlooked upperclassmen, and guys who fall on draft day.

As to the point the smell test on all those trade downs, is "do the spurs really think they don't need top talent such that the risk of a costly bust is fine, or are they cowards who like presti want to cower in mediocrity sitting on huge pick haul" It's funny when people say thopson, miller etc are such bad picks that the spurs won't want them but another team will pay two lottery picks for. That's just dumb and dishonest. There are two likelier scenarios where the spurs trade for a later pick and a future pick, or a player and future pick.

Occam's razor is that the spurs pick an established top player with a top 5 pick. Spursfans want to pretend the spurs have a big board with wemby on top and just a massive inkblot after that.

We don’t know what the Spurs will do with a non #1 top 5 pick in the year 2023. The last time they had one, the picked Sean Elliott at #3, and he was the 1989 Wooden Award winner, a college junior, and would be the slam dunk #2 pick in this draft. Players that complete, with that clear of a path to All Stardom aren’t available after #1 in this, or nearly any other draft.

I also don’t think the Spurs have a mono blob of talent after #1. What I DO think is that their board looks VERY different from other team’s boards, and that you can leverage those inconsistencies into an extra lottery pick or later year lightly protected pick.

[K...]

The spurs have made specific statements like "we targeted Lonnie at a top 5 and got lucky he fell" i go back and forth about whether this is fluffing the p[layers confidence and trade value or a legitimate statement. But if it is a legitimate statement, you can bet the spurs will have strong opinions about who to draft and will want to use their best pick in ages. I t does suck having to pay for a marginal prospect but i don't think the spurs see it like that.

[rascal]

You only trade Sochan if you’re getting back a lottery pick better than ten AND another future first. The Mavs can’t offer that. And even then I don’t do it. Sorry Cuban, enjoy your one man show with sideshow Kyrie.

A trade to get hendricks would be a good deal.
I like Taylor Hendricks at PF more than Sochan. He's quicker on defense, a better rebounder and shot blocker and shoots the ball better from the perimeter and has greater overall athleticism.

Think he has a higher ceiling both offensively and defensively.

[rascal]

I don’t think I’d even do that. Unless it’s a top 3 pick. There’s no player in this draft from 4-8 that I’d want over Sochan and an additional 1st is likely to be out if the lottery.

Don't fall in love with a player because he's currently on the team. If Hendricks was currently on the team you would not want Sochan over him.

Taylor Hendricks is more talented than Sochan both offensively and defensively and would be an upgrade if the Spurs can exchange the two.

[exstatic]

Don't fall in love with a player because he's currently on the team. If Hendricks was currently on the team you would not want Sochan over him.

Taylor Hendricks is more talented than Sochan both offensively and defensively and would be an upgrade if the Spurs can exchange the two.

You see shooting and shot blocking as analogous to offense and defense, but they’re not. They’re only one facet of each.

[Mr. Body]

We don’t know what the Spurs will do with a non #1 top 5 pick in the year 2023. The last time they had one, the picked Sean Elliott at #3, and he was the 1989 Wooden Award winner, a college junior, and would be the slam dunk #2 pick in this draft. Players that complete, with that clear of a path to All Stardom aren’t available after #1 in this, or nearly any other draft.

I also don’t think the Spurs have a mono blob of talent after #1. What I DO think is that their board looks VERY different from other team’s boards, and that you can leverage those inconsistencies into an extra lottery pick or later year lightly protected pick.

This guy gets it.

There's a discrepancy between the sort of player you want to find at 3-6 and the players that will be there this year. We really have to pay attention to rookie scale contracts. If you blow a pick #18, it's no big deal salary-wise. If you blow a #3 pick, you've got a problem. It's even a problem if that player is only 'pretty good.' This was a big problem for Phoenix dealing with Ayton. This was the reason Wiseman had to be moved and now his salary range is a Detroit headache.

This is the reason a lot of bad teams get into cap hell. Houston is going to face having to pay Jalen Green and Jabari Smith the salary scale for #2 picks. It's an issue.

There will likely be a difference between what the team's Big Board is and what the 'general consensus' will be. And the questions won't be "Would it be cool to have Amen Thompson on this team" but rather "How much will Amen Thompson cost us relative to the pick and money?"

The team sure as hell won't say they like Taylor Hendricks or Cason Wallace or whatever. They're going to say they're really high on Thompson. That's where the General Consensus board is. My unsurprised feeling is they value a Hendricks more than a Thompson and there's very little question about this -- OR, they value Thompson at pick #8 and know they won't get him there.

So, depending on where they land in the lotto, they will try to optimize value, cost, and position. They'll try to squeeze value out of the top of the draft by interest in those players by other teams. Because -- just going with the thread of thought -- no players in this draft are actually worth the 3-6 picks (more or less).

[ace3g]

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1576685339724419075/51JyWI5y_normal.jpg (https://twitter.com/Will_Gottlieb)Will Gottlieb (https://twitter.com/Will_Gottlieb)@Will_Gottlieb (https://twitter.com/Will_Gottlieb)




League Source: NBA will flip coins on Monday to determine Draft standings tie breakers

12:26pm · 15 Apr 2023 (https://twitter.com/Will_Gottlieb/status/1647290247632257024) · Twitter for iPhone (https://help.twitter.com/en/using-twitter/how-to-tweet#source-labels)

[ohmwrecker]

Am I the only one who prefers Brandon Miller?

[John B]

IMO it's Wemby or trade down.
I don't like the idea of a 6'2 PG as a centerpiece unless he has god-like 3 point shooting. Like would Tony Parker be worth a top 5 pick in today's NBA?

Parker was not just a 19 yrs old kid. He was considered a multiple years veteran in a competitive league against men. Yes I would take Parker in the top 5 in this draft.

[scott]

This isn’t what I was saying at all. Giannis being taken at 15 IS the problem because 14 other teams passed on him. He should have went first. Same thing for Kawhi. Same thing for Jokic. If any team saw even an ounce of what they would become now, those teams should have ignored projections and just drafted them. You’re simplifying it with the, “guys that slip for some stupid reason” comment. You know exactly why. Any team that would have taken those three guys (and a bunch of other guys in history who turned out as great players) much earlier would have made the right pick with boldness. It’s not about being picked as late as they were and applauding the team that drafted them that late. That’s the opposite of what I’m saying.

Imagine a world where Giannis was drafted 1-4 in his draft over Anthony Bennet, Oladipo, Porter, and Zeller… Imagine the initial outrage by Cleveland fans… but they would have made every bit the right choice for what he eventually becomes.

Now, let’s take it a step further and pretend it’s 2013 and it’s actually the Spurs drafting 3rd in that draft. You hear about this Giannis kid getting buzz about getting picked around mid-lottery. The Spurs MAYBE have a trade partner at 16th. Ok, draft night comes! The team with the 16th pick has accepted our deal and we’re for sure picking Giannis with it. With the 15th pick, the Bucks pick…. Giannis! Aw fuck! Now we lost our guy and as a result of overthinking, we lost a future champion and Hall of Famer who we should have picked with the 3rd pick anyway because we were trying to be opportunists.

If you ask me what’s stupid, it’s drafting Bennet, Oladipo, Porter, and Zeller in the top four (and if you feel Oladipo turned out okay, we can say Alex Len or Nerlens Noel) all because they did good in college all year long and had the mock draft hype going into draft night. There’s going to be four such players in THIS draft with the same reputation that people are having hype over that will end up the same way. Four guys in the lottery right now who never had hope to meet their projected ceiling by fans and scouts. Yet, there are guys projected way later, like Gobert, who became 10x the player those four became and should have definitely been the pick instead.

All this makes one fatal assumption, and that is players are destined to become what they become, regardless of circumstances. But there is very much a case to be made that Kawhi becomes Kawhi in large part because he was drafted by the Spurs. Likewise with Giannis. Yes, in hindsight, Giannis should have gone number 1 - but if he does, then maybe he's out of the league just like Anthony Bennett as this point.

The random Tankathon mock I just ran has Dariq Whitehead going 25 to Memphis. If Dariq Whitehead becomes an all-star in 3 years and Amen Thompson gets picked by the Rockets and doesn't, it will be easy to look at that and say the Rockets should have taken Whitehead at 3 instead of Thompson. But that ignores that Whitehead becoming what he did may have heavily relied upon the fact he was playing off of Ja instead of learning to be an undisciplined chucker in Houston. So Houston takes Whitehead #3, gets absolutely hammered in the press and by fans, then Whitehead doesn't become an all-star, because the Rockets continue to suck, and the GM gets ceremoniously fired.

It's not as simple as just "take the guy you think is best whenever your pick comes up"

[Dejounte]

All this makes one fatal assumption, and that is players are destined to become what they become, regardless of circumstances. But there is very much a case to be made that Kawhi becomes Kawhi in large part because he was drafted by the Spurs. Likewise with Giannis. Yes, in hindsight, Giannis should have gone number 1 - but if he does, then maybe he's out of the league just like Anthony Bennett as this point.

The random Tankathon mock I just ran has Dariq Whitehead going 25 to Memphis. If Dariq Whitehead becomes an all-star in 3 years and Amen Thompson gets picked by the Rockets and doesn't, it will be easy to look at that and say the Rockets should have taken Whitehead at 3 instead of Thompson. But that ignores that Whitehead becoming what he did may have heavily relied upon the fact he was playing off of Ja instead of learning to be an undisciplined chucker in Houston. So Houston takes Whitehead #3, gets absolutely hammered in the press and by fans, then Whitehead doesn't become an all-star, because the Rockets continue to suck, and the GM gets ceremoniously fired.

It's not as simple as just "take the guy you think is best whenever your pick comes up"

My rebuttal to this is that looking at it from that point of view is irrelevant because we’re fortunate enough to be rooting for the team that arguably is the best at developing players, and that is why they absolutely should choose the guy they see with GOAT potential if they see one projected early OR late and not risk it by trading down. Your point would be valid for most teams that couldn’t trust their development staff like we do. They are so complementary to the Spurs that the scouting team has a bigger pool to choose from.

[scott]

I will say, if the Spurs are really high on the Thompsons, it gives me less stress about potentially falling all the way down to 6. Picks 1-6, you are guaranteed one of Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Cam, Amen or Ausar. It's in that 3.5% chance of falling to 7 (50% chance we fall to the 3 slot, which results in a 7% chance of falling to 7) where things start to really suck.

[scott]

My rebuttal to this is that looking at it from that point of view is irrelevant because we’re fortunate enough to be rooting for the team that arguably is the best at developing players, and that is why they absolutely should choose the guy they see with GOAT potential if they see one projected early OR late and not risk it by trading down. Your point would be valid for most teams that couldn’t trust their development staff like we do. They are so complementary to the Spurs that the scouting team has a bigger pool to choose from.

We've historically been the best at developing players, but we've never tried to develop one in an environment like this one in regards to the talent around them. Even in 1989, there was more talent around DRob and Sean than anyone we draft will come into today. That makes a huge difference. Even Keldon and Devin had the benefit of starting out on teams that were play-in teams.

That doesn't mean I don't believe the Spurs are still the best (or one of) suited to do this - but we can't look at our history with Kawhi, Derrick or Dejounte and directly apply it to whomever we draft this year, especially since this year's rookie will arguably have more pressure on them than any rookie since DRob. The expectations for Duncan were justifiably high (and he exceeded them) but he still had the luxury of coming into a team that was already a WCF contender. Because we never pick this high, there will be pressure on him from fans and the media to live up to the only other Spurs picked this high (assuming we pick Top 4): Tim Duncan, David Robinson and Sean Elliott.

[Mr. Body]

I will say, if the Spurs are really high on the Thompsons, it gives me less stress about potentially falling all the way down to 6. Picks 1-6, you are guaranteed one of Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Cam, Amen or Ausar. It's in that 3.5% chance of falling to 7 (50% chance we fall to the 3 slot, which results in a 7% chance of falling to 7) where things start to really suck.

That's cool, then, because you're paying less for the same or better chances at a beneficial player.

[Dejounte]

We've historically been the best at developing players, but we've never tried to develop one in an environment like this one in regards to the talent around them. Even in 1989, there was more talent around DRob and Sean than anyone we draft will come into today. That makes a huge difference. Even Keldon and Devin had the benefit of starting out on teams that were play-in teams.

That doesn't mean I don't believe the Spurs are still the best (or one of) suited to do this - but we can't look at our history with Kawhi, Derrick or Dejounte and directly apply it to whomever we draft this year, especially since this year's rookie will arguably have more pressure on them than any rookie since DRob. The expectations for Duncan were justifiably high (and he exceeded them) but he still had the luxury of coming into a team that was already a WCF contender. Because we never pick this high, there will be pressure on him from fans and the media to live up to the only other Spurs picked this high (assuming we pick Top 4): Tim Duncan, David Robinson and Sean Elliott.

I’m with you, man. It’s a trust or no trust thing. Kinda like the trust fall challenge with friends. Do we trust our team to make the right pick? I can’t honestly say they’ve disappointed me too much to lose that trust in their draft selections, personally.

[scott]

I’m with you, man. It’s a trust or no trust thing. Kinda like the trust fall challenge with friends. Do we trust our team to make the right pick? I can’t honestly say they’ve disappointed me too much to lose that trust in their draft selections, personally.

For sure. And oddly it's why timvp's report of the Spurs interest in the Thompson's gives me a little bit of comfort though I really did not want to end up with one of them. They're way better at talent eval than myself or anyone on this message board, so if we are are 96.5% assured to land one of Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Cam, Amen or Ausar (or whomever else the Spurs FO deems to be at the same level), then I'm good just rolling with the punches. It's a scenario where there really isn't an option they like that concerns me. I don't want this shitty tank season to have been for nothing.

[JPB]

I believe a prospect with great potential will reach it no matter the team he's ending up tbh, if he simply have the mentality and professionalism for that... Spurs have a nice program but so do most NBA teams and players have personal coaches they're working with during the RS and the offseason.

Giannis would have been Giannis in Orlando or Charlotte, and Nephew would have been Nephew somewhere else (Nephew may have issues but he had the mentality to succeed). Sure, they may have different team success depending on where they land but that's not on them, assuming they do their part.

So yeah, it's more about players mentality than anythnig else as far as reaching your potential. I'd be curious to know a potential star player these last few years who failed but would have succeeded in another team (which is kind of impossible to really know ofc).

If a player is talented and has the will to be the best he can, he will no matter where he is. Collective success and trophies are something else, at least until he can become a UFA and decide where he wanna go.

[Dejounte]

Seventyniner

by the way, in your hypothetical player A should absolutely be the pick. That is not the picture I’m painting though. The scenario I’m describing is if the Spurs are in that 3-7 range and there is no player A but there is a player B whom they see as better than the player who is the “Player A” in other teams’ minds.

[exstatic]

I believe a prospect with great potential will reach it no matter the team he's ending up tbh, if he simply have the mentality and professionalism for that... Spurs have a nice program but so do most NBA teams and players have personal coaches they're wroking with during the RS and the offseason.

Giannis would have been Giannis in Orlando or Charlotte, and Nephew would have been Nephew somewhere else (Nephew may have issues but he had the mentality to succeed). Sure, they may have different team success depending on where they land, but that's not on them...

So yeah, it's more about players mentality than anythnig else as far as reaching your potential. I'd be curious to know a potential star player these last few years who failed but would have succeeded in another team (which is kind of impossible to really know ofc).

If a player is talented and has the will to be the best he can, he will no matter where he is.

MKG was a better prospect than Kawhi. Probably Aaron Gordon, too. They were both similar fierce defenders, good rebounders, and below average shooters.

Your premise that it’s the player is no more valid than posters who say it’s the team. It’s BOTH. The Spurs just have requirements that will cement the development process. They get to pick the player. They want dawgs and workoholics.

Unfortunately, players don’t get to pick the team, so you get guys like MKG or Gordon who go to those teams, or most of the current Houston contingent.

[Ariel]

All this makes one fatal assumption, and that is players are destined to become what they become, regardless of circumstances. But there is very much a case to be made that Kawhi becomes Kawhi in large part because he was drafted by the Spurs. Likewise with Giannis. Yes, in hindsight, Giannis should have gone number 1 - but if he does, then maybe he's out of the league just like Anthony Bennett as this point.
Oh, definitely. That scenario is written as if the final outcome were completely deterministic and the deciding variables known beforehand. Neither is true and you can't use hindsight to pretend otherwise. You're picking with limited knowledge between alternatives probabilistic in nature, and at most you can come up with a few scenarios per prospect, rate their likelihood and assign a given value as a result, hoping it was as accurate as possible. Then yes, you can favor players with a wider distribution (high star/bust potential) if you prefer, but always with an honest assessment of the risks involved.
In the example above, I'd argue that Kawhi and Jokic actually WEREN'T the right picks with the information available at the time, because there was no way of telling just how incredible a leap Kawhi would take offensively, or whether Jokic would even end up a viable NBA player or a Sweetney / Oliver Miller clone. On the other hand, you had guys with huge potential like Kyrie and Embiid, who actually were much more proven commodities than them, and were the smart choice at the time. 2013 was a crapshoot, but I have to add that Oladipo was on his path to being a multiple times all star when injuries derailed his career, which reinforces the notion that you can't cherry pick outcomes in hindsight.
I'm probably more risk averse than most, so I prefer players I'm confident have good chances of being high level starters at least with an outside chance at being more than that (Mikhal Bridges would be a good example), than a complete gamble that may have a somewhat higher chance to hit jackpot, with more likely than not ends up a complete bust. I think in the long run that's the better strategy, with the caveat that if you're really convinced in a player's ceiling, sure you can take upside (ej.: Giannis), but that's the (very) rare exception.
In this draft, I'm really wary of guys I have nothing to judge them on but cherry picked highlights on YouTube by someone with a vested interest, and very glaring holes in their game that could render them almost unplayable (*cough* Westbrook/Simmons *cough*). That's why the Thompsons at the very high pick that comes our way once every couple decades seems to me like playing Russian roulette. But I will concede that some random dude from Argentina watching clips on the Internet does not have the same information that the Spurs FO does, so if they're our pick, I'll be hoping they got it right... only scared shitless until it's proven on the court.

[Mr. Body]

I believe a prospect with great potential will reach it no matter the team he's ending up tbh, if he simply have the mentality and professionalism for that... Spurs have a nice program but so do most NBA teams and players have personal coaches they're working with during the RS and the offseason.


I've come to believe this is absolutely not true. Landing on the right team or group of teams is so incredibly vital to a player's development and future, it's one of the most fascinating and untold story about the NBA. Kawhi would NOT have become what he is today if he landed on a Washington Wizards. I can see a lot of teams where Stephen Curry does not become who he is.

It requires space to grow, opportunities, the right staff, mix of players. There is very little I'm more confident about in this league that good players have been throttled by bad situations.

[tonight...you]

My rebuttal to this is that looking at it from that point of view is irrelevant because we’re fortunate enough to be rooting for the team that arguably is the best at developing players, and that is why they absolutely should choose the guy they see with GOAT potential if they see one projected early OR late and not risk it by trading down. Your point would be valid for most teams that couldn’t trust their development staff like we do. They are so complementary to the Spurs that the scouting team has a bigger pool to choose from.
It's pretty incredible, when you think about it, how the Spurs have been a very good developmental team over the years when a lot of those coaches come and go.
We no longer have the Forcier's and the Chip's and the Bud's who had been so instrumental in making players better and yet here we are, with our team still getting drafted players to be better.
Not all, but that's every team and I think we can all agree that the Spurs are better than most.
What is the connective tissue to all of this over time?
Pop? Someone else? It's a curious thing as the NBA poaches the Spurs' staff left and right almost every year.

[Mr. Body]

It's pretty incredible, when you think about it, how the Spurs have been a very good developmental team over the years when a lot of those coaches come and go.
We no longer have the Forcier's and the Chip's and the Bud's who had been so instrumental in making players better and yet here we are, with our team still getting drafted players to be better.
Not all, but that's every team and I think we can all agree that the Spurs are better than most.
What is the connective tissue to all of this over time?
Pop? Someone else? It's a curious thing as the NBA poaches the Spurs' staff left and right almost every year.

It's Pop.

SpursTalk loooooves to shit on Popovich, but they don't realize how huge he's been.

[tonight...you]

It's Pop.

SpursTalk loooooves to shit on Popovich, but they don't realize how huge he's been.
I have to say I agree with you. There's no other evidence saying otherwise that I know of. How does he do it? It's pretty amazing.
When he retires he could make millions upon millions doing coaching and team-building seminars.

[EricB]

IMO it's Wemby or trade down.
I don't like the idea of a 6'2 PG as a centerpiece unless he has god-like 3 point shooting. Like would Tony Parker be worth a top 5 pick in today's NBA?

a hall of fame point guard? Uh, yea?

[EricB]

You see shooting and shot blocking as analogous to offense and defense, but they’re not. They’re only one facet of each.

rascal was one in the 90’s who’d refer to Alonzo mourning as a great defense cause “bs avg!”

[exstatic]

rascal was one in the 90’s who’d refer to Alonzo mourning as a great defense cause “bs avg!”
People thought Camby was,too.

[EricB]

People thought Camby was,too.


oh yeah. 1. Played in NY. 2. Blocked shots. Defensive genius!

[Degoat]

Just my two cents, but Wemby, Scoot, Miller, and Amen will be picks 1-4. 5-9 could be all over the place but it’ll be one of Jarace, Cam, Taylor, Black, and Gradey imo.

[rascal]

Just my two cents, but Wemby, Scoot, Miller, and Amen will be picks 1-4. 5-9 could be all over the place but it’ll be one of Jarace, Cam, Taylor, Black, and Gradey imo.

You forgot Ausar

[JPB]

MKG was a better prospect than Kawhi. Probably Aaron Gordon, too. They were both similar fierce defenders, good rebounders, and below average shooters.

Your premise that it’s the player is no more valid than posters who say it’s the team. It’s BOTH. The Spurs just have requirements that will cement the development process. They get to pick the player. They want dawgs and workoholics.

Unfortunately, players don’t get to pick the team, so you get guys like MKG or Gordon who go to those teams, or most of the current Houston contingent.

I'm not talking evaluation or prospect here, wich are subject to interpretation and personal opinion, but about actual potential that manifests throughout the years in the NBA... MKG and Gordon were maybe projected as better players with bigger potential but ultimately they were not, that's was not true. They didn't underperform comparing to Kawhi because of where they landed, they just had less potential and talent than Kawhi, and maybe less fire, professionalism or determination I don't know. But Nor MKG or Gordon would have been better players would they have landed somewhere else. they ended up as the players they did because of their actual potential and what they did with it.

Trade these young Houston players somewhere else, and they'll play up to their potential if given the chance and if they give themselves the chance.

[Ariel]

I'm only interested in
Wemby
Scoot Henderson / Brandon Miller
Cam Whitmore / Taylor Hendricks
Anthony Black / Jarace Walker
Pass on the brick twins... too much we don't know, and enough warning signs in what we do know.

[Degoat]

You forgot Ausar

Potentially, I could see him falling through the cracks a bit just because I think team will be more interested in those guys I mentioned

[Drom John]

People thought Camby was,too.

I thought so, too.
I worked for Wake Forest and saw all four years of Duncan. Only two players looked good defensively against Duncan: Marcus Camby and Bryant Reeves. Just one game apiece, but really good defensive games.

[K...]

. HThe final coin flip that matters to Indiana is between the Spurs and Rockets. If the Spurs win the flip, the Pacers get to keep the extremely good Rockets second round pick. If not, they fall substantially in the second round..

This coin flip is happening soon right?

[exstatic]

This coin flip is happening soon right?

Some time today, but I can't find out the exact info.

[slick'81]

Some time today, but I can't find out the exact info.

tails never fails! Lfg!

[Ariel]

Some time today, but I can't find out the exact info.
https://twitter.com/IraHeatBeat/status/1647661433700663302

A random draw will be held Monday afternoon by the NBA to break ties for draft position. The Heat will be a part of a three-way draw with the Warriors and Clippers (with all three finishing at 44-38) for the Nos. 18, 19 and 20 picks in the June 22 NBA Draft.
https://twitter.com/IraHeatBeat/status/1647664596377821185

This drawing will be held at 3 p.m. Eastern on Monday.
1647661433700663302
1647664596377821185

[Ariel]

I think that was the case last year as well: next monday following the play in, 3 PM eastern time.

[DPG21920]

Baby needs new shoes come on dice!

[The Truth #6]

Ándale pues!

[K...]

Its past 2?1648040832694382627

[slick'81]

We got this bitch!!!

[Leetonidas]

Well...?

[Ariel]

They're looking for the coin, it got lost.

[K...]

Jokes aside its the same ping balls but set up to be 50/50.

[Ariel]

So they're flipping balls? No wonder they're taking so long.

[Ariel]

In what pertains the 2nd rounder 32/33: If we win the coin flip today, we have 40% at #32, and 60% at #33 If we lose, it's the other way around.

[K...]

1647426251072651265


Also theres no odds for the second round, we just get either pick as a result of Today's coin toss

[Ariel]

1647426251072651265


Also theres no odds for the second round, we just get either pick as a result of Today's coin toss
Wrong. Houston and Spurs still have to go through the lottery. The only thing being decided is who gets the better first rounder (and thus worst 2nd) in the event both come outside of the top 4. That comes out at 20%, with equal odds at coming out on top at the remaining 80% (40% each). So if we win, it's 40% + 20% we get the best first and worst 2nd, and viceversa if we lose.

[rascal]

If might be better to lose the coin flip. The Spurs could end up drafting ahead of Houston in both the first and second round in that scenario.

[K...]

1648063129627287552


So far it seems the rockets care much more about the coin flip than the spurs

[Mr. Body]

Silver is too busy doing his interview with Disney.

[K...]

1648071345861713921

[Ariel]

No worries... we're just saving our luck for when it counts (j/k)

[rascal]

Rockets won tie breaker

Spurs can still draft ahead of the Rockets in both the first and second round

[Seventyniner]

This means the Spurs get the #32 pick (Rockets get #33).

The Spurs get #7 if all three of the Pistons/Rockets/Spurs fall out of the top 4 (Rockets get #6).

The Spurs get #6 if the Pistons land in the top 4 but the Rockets and Spurs don't (Rockets get #5).

The first round pick is unaffected if either or both of the Rockets and Spurs get a top 4 pick.

Is this right?

[slick'81]

On to the lottery

[CGD]

This means the Spurs get the #32 pick (Rockets get #33).

The Spurs get #7 if all three of the Pistons/Rockets/Spurs fall out of the top 4 (Rockets get #6).

The Spurs get #6 if the Pistons land in the top 4 but the Rockets and Spurs don't (Rockets get #5).

The first round pick is unaffected if either or both of the Rockets and Spurs get a top 4 pick.

Is this right?

I kinda feel like the spurs “won” even if Houston officially did? We got 32 over 33, and basically unaffected odds of getting Wemby. Maybe we drop all the way to 7 but could have dropped to 6 anyway.

[exstatic]

This means the Spurs get the #32 pick (Rockets get #33).

The Spurs get #7 if all three of the Pistons/Rockets/Spurs fall out of the top 4 (Rockets get #6).

The Spurs get #6 if the Pistons land in the top 4 but the Rockets and Spurs don't (Rockets get #5).

The first round pick is unaffected if either or both of the Rockets and Spurs get a top 4 pick.

Is this right?

I think we only get 7 if all four top 4 spots are vacated.

[mo7888]

I think we only get 7 if all four top 4 spots are vacated.

I believe this is correct

[Ariel]

This means the Spurs get the #32 pick (Rockets get #33).
Not necessarily. If come lottery day the Spurs jump into top 4 and Houston doesn't (40% chance), then we get the worst 2nd rounder (#33)

The Spurs get #7 if all three of the Pistons/Rockets/Spurs fall out of the top 4 (Rockets get #6).
Correct.

The Spurs get #6 if the Pistons land in the top 4 but the Rockets and Spurs don't (Rockets get #5).
We also get #6 if Houston lands into top 4 and Detroit doesn't.

The first round pick is unaffected if either or both of the Rockets and Spurs get a top 4 pick.
Correct.

[Ariel]

Rockets won tie breaker

Spurs can still draft ahead of the Rockets in both the first and second round
No. 2nd rounder gets reversed with respect to 1st rounder.

I think we only get 7 if all four top 4 spots are vacated.
I don't know what you mean by vacated... we get #7 if all top 4 spots are covered by teams behind us (equivalent to saying that all top 3 teams fall outside top 4).

[scott]

Updated draft order post-coin flips, including the caveats such as the Spurs SRP would fall to #33 if it ends up higher than Houston's FRP (which, logically stupid that the NBA does it this way, IMO, but that's another discussion).

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/2023-pre-lottery-nba-draft-order.html

[mo7888]

No. 2nd rounder gets reversed with respect to 1st rounder.

I don't know what you mean by vacated... we get #7 if all top 4 spots are covered by teams behind us (equivalent to saying that all top 3 teams fall outside top 4).

That's what he means by vacated. The top 4 currently holding those spots are vacated by teams beglhind them. It could have been said in a cleaner way, but the point come through.

[Barfunk]

We lost the coin flip?!?! FIRE POP!!

[DAF86]

Not to pick the best available talent just because you fear the guy will fuck it up somewhere down the road is such a dumb thing to do.

[rascal]

No. 2nd rounder gets reversed with respect to 1st rounder.



After more research this is correct. 2nd round still to be determined with the final draft order.

[spurs10]

Thanks Ariel for clarification. I've got my fingers crossed for May 16th...Jeez Louise, this lottery is not for the faint of heart. :smokin

[duncan2150]

https://twitter.com/DPGSpurs/status/1648077398326358016
https://twitter.com/DPGSpurs/status/1648080948599062528


Interesting takes by our guy DPG on twitter

[TD 21]

Just a preview of what's to come in the lottery . . .

[exstatic]

Not to pick the best available talent just because you fear the guy will fuck it up somewhere down the road is such a dumb thing to do.

Spurs have probably dodged dozens of bullets doing just that.

Back in 1986, the GSW drafted an amazing talented big man named Chris Washburn out of North Carolina State with the 3rd overall pick. . He lasted a season and a half before being traded to Atlanta for some player and no picks. He played the rest of that season, was suspended the following season, and banned for life for substance abuse before season four. Someone asked rival ACC coach Dean Smith where he would have drafted Chris, and he said he wouldn’t have. Having recruited him, he knew he had a hornets nest of drug problems. Everyone knew, and Golden State drafted him anyway, wasting the #3 overall pick.

Moral of the story: sidestep land mines.

[Chinook]

All the tie-break means is that in the 23-percent chance that both the Rockets and Spurs miss out on top-four picks, the Rockets would get a better pick than the Spurs. No shade at Deeps for his analysis, but for the picks people care about (Wemby, Hendy, Milly and the best of the rest-y) it doesn't mean anything. Yes, the difference between 5 and 6 or 6 and 7 could matter, but that's well into the "crap shoot" part of the draft, and the Spurs have plenty of capital to move up a bit if they really think that star is there. It's not even all that likely that Houston and SA even want the same players that low.

[Seventyniner]

Not necessarily. If come lottery day the Spurs jump into top 4 and Houston doesn't (40% chance), then we get the worst 2nd rounder (#33)

Thanks, I didn't know that. I thought the second round order was fixed no matter what happened in the first round. But what you said is more fair.


We also get #6 if Houston lands into top 4 and Detroit doesn't.

Good point. I forgot to account for that possibility.

[K...]

Ha were getting the worse thomson bro now. Guarantee.

[scott]

https://twitter.com/DPGSpurs/status/1648077398326358016
https://twitter.com/DPGSpurs/status/1648080948599062528


Interesting takes by our guy DPG on twitter

This is an interesting take on it from the perspective of watching the lottery unfold on TV, but the lottery is drawn from 1 to 4, not from 14 down to 1. So, you don't really "survive" picks 6 and 7 and then see your odds of landing 1-4 increase. They pick #1 first, and then #2, etc. Because of the way they present it on TV, it appears like you are "surviving" the picks, but the cards are all already in the envelopes and the odds are all 100% that you're pick is the one you've already drawn. This seems elementary, but it is important to keep in mind as you watch... the odds don't change as cards are unveiled.

However, it would actually be kind of cool if they did the lottery live that way with inverse odds that you "survive". In this case, DET, HOU and SA would each have the lowest number of balls and they would draw for #14, then #13, etc. That would make for more drama, IMO.

One thing I will disagree with the esteemed DPG, on his tweet here. I would not call it "good news" that pick 7 spreads the individual odds lower of landing outside of the top 4. Whether you are #2 or #3 (or #1 for that matter), you still have the same 47.8% chance of landing outside of the Top 4. With the #1 slot, that 47.8% chance is just concentrated in pick 5. For the #2 slot, it is spread among 5 and 6, and for the #3 slot it is spread among 5, 6 and 7. I would classify this as the opposite of good news (aka, bad news).

[scott]

Thanks, I didn't know that. I thought the second round order was fixed no matter what happened in the first round. But what you said is more fair.



Good point. I forgot to account for that possibility.

I honestly think it is less fair and wish the NBA wouldn't do it this way. As it stands now, the Spurs have an X% probability of getting a worse pick than Houston (I could do this math, but I'm too lazy right now, but it is > 50%). Because of this, IMO, the Spurs should get the higher SRP. By waiting until the FRP order has been determined, you eliminate the "compensation" that the Spurs get for taking lower odds at a better pick in the first. Either way, this is a minor gripe, but the economist in me would like to see the "compensation" be granted before the outcome is known, not after.

[scott]

Not necessarily. If come lottery day the Spurs jump into top 4 and Houston doesn't (40% chance), then we get the worst 2nd rounder (#33)

Correct.

We also get #6 if Houston lands into top 4 and Detroit doesn't.

Correct.

Correct me if I am wrong, but this scenario would mean we get #33, but we also get #33 if we both stay in the Top 4, but get the higher pick.

Five Scenarios:

Both Drop Out of Top 4 = Spurs Get 32
Spurs Drop Out of Top 4, Rockets Stay In = Spurs Get 32
Spurs Stay In Top 4, Rockets Drop Out = Spurs Get 33
Both Teams Stay In Top 4, Rockets Pick Higher = Spurs Get 32
Both Teams Stay in Top 4, Spurs Pick Higher = Spurs Get 33

We could of course calculate out all these probabilities, but I'm not going to take the time

[rascal]

This is an interesting take on it from the perspective of watching the lottery unfold on TV, but the lottery is drawn from 1 to 4, not from 14 down to 1. So, you don't really "survive" picks 6 and 7 and then see your odds of landing 1-4 increase. They pick #1 first, and then #2, etc. Because of the way they present it on TV, it appears like you are "surviving" the picks, but the cards are all already in the envelopes and the odds are all 100% that you're pick is the one you've already drawn. This seems elementary, but it is important to keep in mind as you watch... the odds don't change as cards are unveiled.

However, it would actually be kind of cool if they did the lottery live that way with inverse odds that you "survive". In this case, DET, HOU and SA would each have the lowest number of balls and they would draw for #14, then #13, etc. That would make for more drama, IMO.

One thing I will disagree with the esteemed DPG, on his tweet here. I would not call it "good news" that pick 7 spreads the individual odds lower of landing outside of the top 4. Whether you are #2 or #3 (or #1 for that matter), you still have the same 47.8% chance of landing outside of the Top 4. With the #1 slot, that 47.8% chance is just concentrated in pick 5. For the #2 slot, it is spread among 5 and 6, and for the #3 slot it is spread among 5, 6 and 7. I would classify this as the opposite of good news (aka, bad news).

On TV they will announce from 14 to 1.

But if you're watching on TV and the Spurs don't get called for picks 7 or 6 then Houston has a higher chance to get called for 5 than the Spurs.

You'll hear when teams jump into the top 4 as they won't be drafting where they are expected to by record. You don't want to hear many teams jump into the top four before the spurs are called

[offset formation]

I kinda feel like the spurs “won” even if Houston officially did? We got 32 over 33, and basically unaffected odds of getting Wemby. Maybe we drop all the way to 7 but could have dropped to 6 anyway.

I'm nonplussed about who we should draft if we don't get Wembanyama quite frankly. I think I lean towards Miller more than Scoot but neither one of them gives me the expected excitement of drafting in a 2nd or 3rd position one would expect. I have done zero scouting work this year so hopefully there's some Mongolian or Albanian kid no one knows about besides the Spurs if we don't get Wembanyama. Not sure I see more than solid NBA starter on either Scoot or Miller, which we could desperately use, but for our first foray into the top of the draft since Duncan, I'm a bit concerned after #1.

[DPG21920]

This is an interesting take on it from the perspective of watching the lottery unfold on TV, but the lottery is drawn from 1 to 4, not from 14 down to 1. So, you don't really "survive" picks 6 and 7 and then see your odds of landing 1-4 increase. They pick #1 first, and then #2, etc. Because of the way they present it on TV, it appears like you are "surviving" the picks, but the cards are all already in the envelopes and the odds are all 100% that you're pick is the one you've already drawn. This seems elementary, but it is important to keep in mind as you watch... the odds don't change as cards are unveiled.

However, it would actually be kind of cool if they did the lottery live that way with inverse odds that you "survive". In this case, DET, HOU and SA would each have the lowest number of balls and they would draw for #14, then #13, etc. That would make for more drama, IMO.

One thing I will disagree with the esteemed DPG, on his tweet here. I would not call it "good news" that pick 7 spreads the individual odds lower of landing outside of the top 4. Whether you are #2 or #3 (or #1 for that matter), you still have the same 47.8% chance of landing outside of the Top 4. With the #1 slot, that 47.8% chance is just concentrated in pick 5. For the #2 slot, it is spread among 5 and 6, and for the #3 slot it is spread among 5, 6 and 7. I would classify this as the opposite of good news (aka, bad news).

Correct. I was just making the broader point that it’s still 48% chance at not top 4 but individually spreads out risk vs more heavily concentrated (meaning pick 7 would be bad luck and pick 5. Pick 6 is the major concern here)

[Dejounte]

Tbh I have a feeling if Houston picked 2nd and we picked 3rd, it would be good news for us since I don’t think they would select Scoot.

[scott]

On TV they will announce from 14 to 1.

Yeah, I said that.


But if you're watching on TV and the Spurs don't get called for picks 7 or 6 then Houston has a higher chance to get called for 5 than the Spurs.

This is incorrect. If the Spurs don't get called for picks 7 or 6, then the moment before envelope #5 is picked they will have an equal chance of being named 5th as the Rockets, not a lesser %. Along those lines, if the Pistons also have not had their name called, they will also have the exact same odds of being drawn 5th as the Spurs and Rockets. If Charlotte or Portland has not been called up to that point, they will have a higher probability of being called next. Any other team will have a lower probability (0%) than DET, HOU or SA.

You can disagree if you want, but that's not how math works.


You'll hear when teams jump into the top 4 as they won't be drafting where they are expected to by record. You don't want to hear many teams jump into the top four before the spurs are called

Yes, this is how the lottery works. You'll also "hear" when teams jump into the top 4 because the announcer will literally say "this means Team X has moved into the Top 4..."

[jjspur]

Lets keep this simple, in the first round the spurs will pick somewhere between 1 - 7 because of their bad record this year.

Where, is just speculation right now. A team can have the best odds, the worst record and still not get the first pick. Sure statistics help a bit, but until the actual draft lottery, its anybody's guess but I'm sure there will probably be a surprise or two. (Hope its a good one for the spurs)

What we actually do know is that in the in the second round the spurs will have either the 32nd or 33rd pick plus Toronto's 2nd round pick. If you can make it more simple, please do.

[scott]

Lets keep this simple, in the first round the spurs will pick somewhere between 1 - 7 because of their bad record this year.

Where, is just speculation right now. A team can have the best odds, the worst record and still not get the first pick. Sure statistics help a bit, but until the actual draft lottery, its anybody's guess but I'm sure there will probably be a surprise or two. (Hope its a good one for the spurs)

What we actually do know is that in the in the second round the spurs will have either the 32nd or 33rd pick plus Toronto's 2nd round pick. If you can make it more simple, please do.

This is all pretty simple. You nailed it.

[Mr. Body]

Spurs have probably dodged dozens of bullets doing just that.

Back in 1986, the GSW drafted an amazing talented big man named Chris Washburn out of North Carolina State with the 3rd overall pick. . He lasted a season and a half before being traded to Atlanta for some player and no picks. He played the rest of that season, was suspended the following season, and banned for life for substance abuse before season four. Someone asked rival ACC coach Dean Smith where he would have drafted Chris, and he said he wouldn’t have. Having recruited him, he knew he had a hornets nest of drug problems. Everyone knew, and Golden State drafted him anyway, wasting the #3 overall pick.

Moral of the story: sidestep land mines.

It's the argument about character all over again. This isn't a video game. You don't pick a talented player if they have warning signs. It's too expensive, you may waste your pick, and it's corrosive to the team environment. The Spurs have an unusual history in getting nailed by two people who supposedly had high character. The hardworking, quiet Kawhi, who stabbed them in the back. The supposed choirboy Primo, who couldn't keep it in his pants.

[Ariel]

Correct me if I am wrong, but this scenario would mean we get #33, but we also get #33 if we both stay in the Top 4, but get the higher pick.

Five Scenarios:

Both Drop Out of Top 4 = Spurs Get 32
Spurs Drop Out of Top 4, Rockets Stay In = Spurs Get 32
Spurs Stay In Top 4, Rockets Drop Out = Spurs Get 33
Both Teams Stay In Top 4, Rockets Pick Higher = Spurs Get 32
Both Teams Stay in Top 4, Spurs Pick Higher = Spurs Get 33

We could of course calculate out all these probabilities, but I'm not going to take the time
Yup, correct. The chances both the Spurs and Rockets fall outside of top 4 are approx. 20.0226% (not 23% as stated above by someone else, because those are not independent events thus you cannot get the joint probability by multiplying the marginal probabilities). In that 20% Houston gets the better 1st and the Spurs the better 2nd. In the remaining 80% half the times Houston comes on top and half the times and we do the rest (resulting in 40%-40%), since they have the same odds at each slot and a tiebreaker isn't necessary (#2 or #3 are equivalent in this case). So basically 40% of the time the Spurs the lowest first (and thus highest second) and viceversa the remaining 60% of the time.

[Ariel]

What we actually do know is that in the in the second round the spurs will have either the 32nd or 33rd pick plus Toronto's 2nd round pick. If you can make it more simple, please do.
I already posted it in this thread. I don't think it's that difficult to follow:

In what pertains the 2nd rounder 32/33: If we win the coin flip today, we have 40% at #32, and 60% at #33 If we lose, it's the other way around.
We lost, thus we have 60% at #33 and 40% at #32. Not rocket science.

[daslicer]

It's the argument about character all over again. This isn't a video game. You don't pick a talented player if they have warning signs. It's too expensive, you may waste your pick, and it's corrosive to the team environment. The Spurs have an unusual history in getting nailed by two people who supposedly had high character. The hardworking, quiet Kawhi, who stabbed them in the back. The supposed choirboy Primo, who couldn't keep it in his pants.

I think to some degree getting guys who are good character is a crapshoot, but you still run away from the obvious toxic characters such as a guy with a criminal history.

[DPG21920]

Tbh I have a feeling if Houston picked 2nd and we picked 3rd, it would be good news for us since I don’t think they would select Scoot.

I would be shocked at a team passing on Scoot tbh..I know there’s chatter, especially on teams with guards, but I’m not sure. I only think maybe DET *might* since Cade/Ivey look very good. Even then not sure.

I don’t care if Spurs have to pay some, I’m all for trading up if SA is pick 3 and a team is willing to sell pick 2.

[mo7888]

I would be shocked at a team passing on Scoot tbh..I know there’s chatter, especially on teams with guards, but I’m not sure. I only think maybe DET *might* since Cade/Ivey look very good. Even then not sure.

I don’t care if Spurs have to pay some, I’m all for trading up if SA is pick 3 and a team is willing to sell pick 2.

Nobody is passing on Scoot at 2..

[DPG21920]

Nobody is passing on Scoot at 2..

Agree.

[Ariel]

Tbh I have a feeling if Houston picked 2nd and we picked 3rd, it would be good news for us since I don’t think they would select Scoot.
Given their need for a real PG, I'd be absolutely SHOCKED if that's the case. But its Houston, so who knows. Lets hope.

[Ariel]

Spurs have probably dodged dozens of bullets doing just that.

Back in 1986, the GSW drafted an amazing talented big man named Chris Washburn out of North Carolina State with the 3rd overall pick. . He lasted a season and a half before being traded to Atlanta for some player and no picks. He played the rest of that season, was suspended the following season, and banned for life for substance abuse before season four. Someone asked rival ACC coach Dean Smith where he would have drafted Chris, and he said he wouldn’t have. Having recruited him, he knew he had a hornets nest of drug problems. Everyone knew, and Golden State drafted him anyway, wasting the #3 overall pick.

Moral of the story: sidestep land mines.
Len Bias too. Different times, but still, point remains.

[BackHome]

Houston wants to be a factor on ESPN fake news so no way in hell are they going to trade out of the 2nd pick and if they get it it is going to be Scoot Henderson.

[Ariel]

I think the teams at 2 would get split this way:
Team Scoot: Houston, Spurs, Orlando, Washington, Chicago
Team Miller: Detroit, Charlotte, Indiana, Dallas (might trade the pick away, though), OKC
Who knows: Portland (depending on what they're trying to do with Dame), Utah (could use both), Toronto (should be Scoot but Masai has a hard on for 6'9"+ wings), New Orleans (need shooting but could also use a franchise PG to build around).

[SpurPadre]

So, the tiebreaker still hasn't been set between us and the Rockets?

[DPG21920]

So, the tiebreaker still hasn't been set between us and the Rockets?

It has. HOU won so they get 2nd best odds. Spurs get 3rd.

[SpurPadre]

It has. HOU won so they get 2nd best odds. Spurs get 3rd.

Fuck.

[Thomas82]

It has. HOU won so they get 2nd best odds. Spurs get 3rd.

I'm not upset at all that the Spurs lost the coin flip. I would rather have our good luck be used on winning the lottery.

[slick'81]

I'm not upset at all that the Spurs lost the coin flip. I would rather have our good luck be used on winning the lottery.

top 3 is still within reach

[exstatic]

top 3 is still within reach

No odds within the top FOUR places have changed. Portland increased their Wemby odds from 9% to 10.5%. Chicago increased their Wemby Odds from 1.5% to 2%, but more importantly, increased their top 4 odds from 7.2% to 9.4%, and if they make the jump, they keep their pick this year.

[slick'81]

No odds within the top FOUR places have changed. Portland increased their Wemby odds from 9% to 10.5%. Chicago increased their Wemby Odds from 1.5% to 2%, but more importantly, increased their top 4 odds from 7.2% to 9.4%, and if they make the jump, they keep their pick this year.


damn thats not a bad outcome for chi town

[R. DeMurre]

I can absolutely see someone passing on Scoot in an Ainge-like 2017 move where a team picks up a nice asset to move back and grab a better modern profile (>6'7", versatile defense, 3pt shooting) to let some other team build around a 6'2" <can't miss> PG with underwhelming impact stats a la Markelle Fultz...

[Mr. Body]

I can absolutely see someone passing on Scoot in an Ainge-like 2017 move where a team picks up a nice asset to move back and grab a better modern profile (>6'7", versatile defense, 3pt shooting) to let some other team build around a 6'2" <can't miss> PG with underwhelming impact stats a la Markelle Fultz...

It could be us!

[K...]

On the other hand, Sacramento is going to the second round with De'aron fox and sabonis. It doesn't take much to get that level of talent but passing on guards looking for Curry level of HOF talent is dumb. Just find a plausible all star and try to build a team from that

Also who is this good shooting good defense SF /PF that Won't go top 3?

[lefty20]

It has. HOU won so they get 2nd best odds. Spurs get 3rd.

That's a fucked up system. By my count, that coin toss gave Houston one more W than the Spurs. Meaning the 2nd slot should be ours by right.

NBA dumb as fuck, tbh.

/s

[JPB]

On the other hand, Sacramento is going to the second round with De'aron fox and sabonis. It doesn't take much to get that level of talent but passing on guards looking for Curry level of HOF talent is dumb. Just find a plausible all star and try to build a team from that

Also who is this good shooting good defense SF /PF that Won't go top 3?

That's as much telling about the the state of the WC than SAC overall quality tbh. They have a nice little team, and they could upgrade down the road, but you're not winning anything with Sabonis and Fox as your top dogs.

[duncan2150]

I can absolutely see someone passing on Scoot in an Ainge-like 2017 move where a team picks up a nice asset to move back and grab a better modern profile (>6'7", versatile defense, 3pt shooting) to let some other team build around a 6'2" <can't miss> PG with underwhelming impact stats a la Markelle Fultz...

Ja Morant or D Fox are not bad players imo.....

[Thomas82]

top 3 is still within reach

Yeah I know....I'm just saying that I'm not upset about losing the coin flip because the end result in the lottery is way more important.