The Costs of Moving Up (or Into) the First Round

[Mr. Body]

I know a lot of this is banging around in other threads, but I thought some people might like hashing out from our amateur perspective what it might take to get a second first round pick. Less who we would like to get, rather what certain spots might require.


Spurs' Assets to Move

- Our draft picks this year 33, 44
- Future draft picks, including TOR and CHA next year, CHI in 2025, ATL picks, and our own picks
- Cap space
- Current players, such as Zach Collins or Keldon Johnson


Considerations of Teams at Target Spots

- Needs of teams at those spots. For example: Washington (8) and Utah (9) both badly need point guards
- Competition for those spots. There may be a lot of movement among high lottery pick owners, with other teams wanting to join them (for example: OKC). More suitors means greater expense
- Desire of trading-down teams to gain 2024 assets regardless. For example, Dallas (10) won't want to trade out of the round entirely; they want something out of this draft
- Trading down with the 33 is contextual: it's less of a leap to get a Brooklyn pick (21) with the 33 than it is to get to the Dallas pick (10)


Thoughts

In my inexpert opinion, we have different bands, or ranges, we could possibly get into with trades.

Top 2-6. There are fans of going hard for Scoot or Miller. The Detroit pick (5) might be for sale, which could net a different player. IMO, all of these will be prohibitively expensive, requiring Keldon Johnson and multiple firsts. Even then, I don't think the Spurs can beat what other teams will offer.

Top 7-11. This is where you're targeting Anthony Black, Cason Wallace, Gradey Dick, Taylor Hendricks, etc. Two teams, Washington (8) and Utah (9) badly need point guards already. Dallas is said to be interested in moving (10), as is Orlando (11)

Late Lottery into the Teens. Here you may find players like Kobe Bufkin and Jordan Hawkins. Contending with an aggressive OKC, teams that need help like Toronto and LAL, difficult trade partners like Utah

Picks 20-30. Here you can possibly get Brandin Podziemski and others. This seems like it would be more wide open, but these picks are owned by teams like Sacramento and Memphis, who need pieces, and teams with multiple picks like Utah and Indiana.


tl/dr, or, My Thoughts

- The Spurs have to manufacture a pick out of whole cloth to be attractive to teams who need something out of this draft
- I don't think the Spurs intend to trade Keldon at this time, or anybody major. No one else has value
- To me, the Top 9 is pretty much impossible to get to
- Using the 33 to get into the 20-30 range is a possibility, probably using the CHA or TOR pick next year (is this worth it?)
- Toronto, Golden State, Brooklyn, do not have picks next year.
- Would it be possible to get one of those for a first next year, then... move further up? Is it worth trading two future draft picks (and the 33) to get a player this year?

To me, getting another FRP in this draft is very expensive. I don't think the Spurs' trove is that deep to be frivolous. Given the narrow team needs, I'm not sure splurging makes sense. Also given the team's conservative use of assets, it seems more likely they keep their three FRPs next year and see what happens then.

For a while, I thought getting a second FRP2024 made sense. Now, due to a mix of teams involved, their placement and needs, I don't see a beneficial way of being aggressive, although I can see one of those non-2024 teams maybe swapping the 19, 21, or 22 for our 33 and a first from next year. I just don't see any of our guys actually at those spots.

Your thoughts?

[DAF86]

How much higher do you all think this year's 33 and 44 could get us?

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

To me, getting another FRP in this draft is very expensive. I don't think the Spurs' trove is that deep to be frivolous. Given the narrow team needs, I'm not sure splurging makes sense. Also given the team's conservative use of assets, it seems more likely they keep their three FRPs next year and see what happens then.



This. No need to get crazy. If someone the Spurs covet happens to drop then I think you do what you have to do, but don't move up unless they spot the next Kawhi dropping out of the lottery. Winning the Wemby sweepstakes gives the Spurs tons of options now, though, making some of that trade capital available to work in their favor so they can be selective not feel any need to swing for the fences. And the entire roster is expendable in a draft trade, IMO, as the key will now be to put the best pieces around the future of the franchise.

[Mr. Body]

How much higher do you think this year's 33 and 44 could get us?

I think maybe Golden State at 19, if you plus the Toronto or Charlotte pick next year.

Brooklyn at 21 or 22, for the same.

Maybe Memphis at 25, maaaaybe using a load of other SRPs? Sacramento is at 24 and maaaaybe might have similar interest?

Basically everyone else in the 20s is Portland, Utah, Charlotte, Indiana, and I don't think they're in the market.

[K...]

Im much more bullish on free agency and trading keldon for a young player of equal value or key vet. Our pick surplus isnt really a problem this year. But all teams will swap players since spurs (murray aside )?generally are good value (even kawhi steal of the decade featured a career journeyman starter in their early prime.

[JuneJive]

When have the Spurs moved up in a draft via trades?

I don't see the can't miss prospect in lotto/late lotto they would break bank for.

Wemby's on the team. Pop will take it slow. Who knows what Wright has up his sleeves though. He very well may have earned himself a longer leash with the way he was operating during the last couple of seasons.

Who'd be the main target of a move up? We think Black, Spurs could have other ideas.

[mo7888]

I know a lot of this is banging around in other threads, but I thought some people might like hashing out from our amateur perspective what it might take to get a second first round pick. Less who we would like to get, rather what certain spots might require.


Spurs' Assets to Move

- Our draft picks this year 33, 44
- Future draft picks, including TOR and CHA next year, CHI in 2025, ATL picks, and our own picks
- Cap space
- Current players, such as Zach Collins or Keldon Johnson


Considerations of Teams at Target Spots

- Needs of teams at those spots. For example: Washington (8) and Utah (9) both badly need point guards
- Competition for those spots. There may be a lot of movement among high lottery pick owners, with other teams wanting to join them (for example: OKC). More suitors means greater expense
- Desire of trading-down teams to gain 2024 assets regardless. For example, Dallas (10) won't want to trade out of the round entirely; they want something out of this draft
- Trading down with the 33 is contextual: it's less of a leap to get a Brooklyn pick (21) with the 33 than it is to get to the Dallas pick (10)


Thoughts

In my inexpert opinion, we have different bands, or ranges, we could possibly get into with trades.

Top 2-6. There are fans of going hard for Scoot or Miller. The Detroit pick (5) might be for sale, which could net a different player. IMO, all of these will be prohibitively expensive, requiring Keldon Johnson and multiple firsts. Even then, I don't think the Spurs can beat what other teams will offer.

Top 7-11. This is where you're targeting Anthony Black, Cason Wallace, Gradey Dick, Taylor Hendricks, etc. Two teams, Washington (8) and Utah (9) badly need point guards already. Dallas is said to be interested in moving (10), as is Orlando (11)

Late Lottery into the Teens. Here you may find players like Kobe Bufkin and Jordan Hawkins. Contending with an aggressive OKC, teams that need help like Toronto and LAL, difficult trade partners like Utah

Picks 20-30. Here you can possibly get Brandin Podziemski and others. This seems like it would be more wide open, but these picks are owned by teams like Sacramento and Memphis, who need pieces, and teams with multiple picks like Utah and Indiana.


tl/dr, or, My Thoughts

- The Spurs have to manufacture a pick out of whole cloth to be attractive to teams who need something out of this draft
- I don't think the Spurs intend to trade Keldon at this time, or anybody major. No one else has value
- To me, the Top 9 is pretty much impossible to get to
- Using the 33 to get into the 20-30 range is a possibility, probably using the CHA or TOR pick next year (is this worth it?)
- Toronto, Golden State, Brooklyn, do not have picks next year.
- Would it be possible to get one of those for a first next year, then... move further up? Is it worth trading two future draft picks (and the 33) to get a player this year?

To me, getting another FRP in this draft is very expensive. I don't think the Spurs' trove is that deep to be frivolous. Given the narrow team needs, I'm not sure splurging makes sense. Also given the team's conservative use of assets, it seems more likely they keep their three FRPs next year and see what happens then.

For a while, I thought getting a second FRP2024 made sense. Now, due to a mix of teams involved, their placement and needs, I don't see a beneficial way of being aggressive, although I can see one of those non-2024 teams maybe swapping the 19, 21, or 22 for our 33 and a first from next year. I just don't see any of our guys actually at those spots.

Your thoughts?

A few thoughts:

I don't worry to much about what competing offers are for any spot I'd want to move to. I kind of look at it as I do when I'm buying real estate. I don't get emotionally attached and evaluate what its worth to me. I obviously don't offer full value at first, but I know how far I'm willing to go when I do make my move. If someone wants to pay more then that's their prerogative. It doesn't bother me because I'm confident in my evaluation and not emotionally attached.

I like the different tiers you've got there. On the 2-6 Tier I'd only go there if it were for Scoot and I don't think what I'd be willing to pay as much as some others. My best offer for him would be something like Keldon, Toronto pick, Charlotte, our 24 1st protected top 8, and Chicago + 2nd's and salary filler(if they coveted Doug/ Graham or cap space. That won't get it done, but that's all I'd do.

7-11- our Top 7-10 protected 24 pick (depending on if we're targeting 7 or 11), Toronto pick, Cha or Chicago pick, or 2nd's and cap space.

Late lottery thru teens- Probably Toronto and Cha or CHI pick, both 2nd's and cap space.

20-30- Cha or CHI pick + our 2nd's

I'm also very comfortable not making a move at all.

[Chinook]

A few thoughts:

I don't worry to much about what competing offers are for any spot I'd want to move to. I kind of look at it as I do when I'm buying real estate. I don't get emotionally attached and evaluate what its worth to me. I obviously don't offer full value at first, but I know how far I'm willing to go when I do make my move. If someone wants to pay more then that's their prerogative. It doesn't bother me because I'm confident in my evaluation and not emotionally attached.

I like the different tiers you've got there. On the 2-6 Tier I'd only go there if it were for Scoot and I don't think what I'd be willing to pay as much as some others. My best offer for him would be something like Keldon, Toronto pick, Charlotte, our 24 1st protected top 8, and Chicago + 2nd's and salary filler(if they coveted Doug/ Graham or cap space. That won't get it done, but that's all I'd do.

7-11- our Top 7-10 protected 24 pick (depending on if we're targeting 7 or 11), Toronto pick, Cha or Chicago pick, or 2nd's and cap space.

Late lottery thru teens- Probably Toronto and Cha or CHI pick, both 2nd's and cap space.

20-30- Cha or CHI pick + our 2nd's

I'm also very comfortable not making a move at all.

Great insight.

So for 7-11, you have Keldon off the table? I would have him on, but without anything except MAYBE the Charlotte pick.

I think my approach would be to see how high Keldon plus the CHA and CHI picks can take me and see if I want anyone there. I'd also see how much CHA, CHI and a heavily protected Spurs first would go. Obviously how badly they want any player would determine their willingness to offer either combo. But I do think walking out with two 23 firsts, two 2024 first and two 2025 firsts is a very desirable outcome. We've kicked around a number of hypothetical trades here, and I think the Spurs are in a good position to do many of them. We'll see if there are legit rumors the team is even trying to make a move and not just "reports" that seem like SpursTalk-born spit-balling.

[RC_Drunkford]

A few thoughts:

I don't worry to much about what competing offers are for any spot I'd want to move to. I kind of look at it as I do when I'm buying real estate. I don't get emotionally attached and evaluate what its worth to me. I obviously don't offer full value at first, but I know how far I'm willing to go when I do make my move. If someone wants to pay more then that's their prerogative. It doesn't bother me because I'm confident in my evaluation and not emotionally attached.

I like the different tiers you've got there. On the 2-6 Tier I'd only go there if it were for Scoot and I don't think what I'd be willing to pay as much as some others. My best offer for him would be something like Keldon, Toronto pick, Charlotte, our 24 1st protected top 8, and Chicago + 2nd's and salary filler(if they coveted Doug/ Graham or cap space. That won't get it done, but that's all I'd do.

7-11- our Top 7-10 protected 24 pick (depending on if we're targeting 7 or 11), Toronto pick, Cha or Chicago pick, or 2nd's and cap space.

Late lottery thru teens- Probably Toronto and Cha or CHI pick, both 2nd's and cap space.

20-30- Cha or CHI pick + our 2nd's

I'm also very comfortable not making a move at all.

I think you are massively overpaying

[Russ]

The most realistic scenario looks like moving up a few spots to the late first round.

At that range in the draft, the Spurs probably have targeted someone who is as likely to be available at 33 (knowing the Spurs unorthodox draft rankings).

I doubt they'll panic and "overpay" to get someone they may be able to get anyway in a more favorable configuration as a 2d round pick .

[buttsR4rebounding]

I agree with Chinook that coming out of this draft with 2 FRPs in 23, 24 and 25 is the most beneficial outcome. Having 6 picks in 2 years with all the current youth seems like an unmanageable situation. As far as Keldon I see him as the odd man out long-term. I just think the optics of trading your "face-of-the-franchise" 2 years in a row is something the Spurs will have a hard time coming to grips with. This obviously has to be weighed against long term roster construction and maximizing KJ's value. Do you think he is at max value now or do you think he increases his value when he is not the focus of the defense and likely is able increase his efficiency? To me this is the biggest question the Spurs have right now.

[mo7888]

Great insight.

So for 7-11, you have Keldon off the table? I would have him on, but without anything except MAYBE the Charlotte pick.

I think my approach would be to see how high Keldon plus the CHA and CHI picks can take me and see if I want anyone there. I'd also see how much CHA, CHI and a heavily protected Spurs first would go. Obviously how badly they want any player would determine their willingness to offer either combo. But I do think walking out with two 23 firsts, two 2024 first and two 2025 firsts is a very desirable outcome. We've kicked around a number of hypothetical trades here, and I think the Spurs are in a good position to do many of them. We'll see if there are legit rumors the team is even trying to make a move and not just "reports" that seem like SpursTalk-born spit-balling.

That's reasonable.. . I think the key point there is 'how highly the team rates a particular player in that 7-11 tier'. If their guy is there they may have a richer offer than I would... I like Keldon, but he's definitely not someone you clinch your fist and refuse to include if you see someone who you believe is a better long-term fit next to Wembanyama.

[mo7888]

I think you are massively overpaying

It's not an opening offer...and if you're correct they'd be paying less... in that scenario it becomes a no-brainer.

[Mr. Body]

Great insight.

So for 7-11, you have Keldon off the table? I would have him on, but without anything except MAYBE the Charlotte pick.

I think my approach would be to see how high Keldon plus the CHA and CHI picks can take me and see if I want anyone there. I'd also see how much CHA, CHI and a heavily protected Spurs first would go. Obviously how badly they want any player would determine their willingness to offer either combo. But I do think walking out with two 23 firsts, two 2024 first and two 2025 firsts is a very desirable outcome. We've kicked around a number of hypothetical trades here, and I think the Spurs are in a good position to do many of them. We'll see if there are legit rumors the team is even trying to make a move and not just "reports" that seem like SpursTalk-born spit-balling.

Two things here:

I'm not sure Keldon is on the market. Of course things change if he is. (And my belief was that the team was entering the off-season with him on the move, before Wemby.) I don't know what interest he has in this draft, though I do feel eventually the team needs to decide between him and Sochan. I just feel his value for the team this year is very high.

The highlighted above. I don't see how the Spurs can outright buy a nice pick with future draft capital. I've identified teams I think would trade out of the first round, but their placement isn't good. I could see a Utah (16) selling an extra pick for future picks (not necessarily what you list here). That is, if they can't themselves move up.

That said, I'm sure the team will determine its thresholds and probe each tranch of the first round. How much would they pay to get player 1 in the top 10? How much for a player 2 in the late lottery?

Would I get Kobe Bufkin for the CHA and CHI picks? Would I, if I had to include the 33?

[timvp]

Good thread, Mr. Body :tu

I agree that I don't think a Keldon trade happens, for a variety of reasons. One of the reasons is I don't think his value is as high as Spurs fans apparently think it is. He'd be a classic case of "if the Spurs are looking to trade him, something most be wrong" that has ironically hurt the Spurs in a variety of trade negotiations.


I think you are massively overpaying

Perhaps ... but it'd take even more to actually move up.

[Chinook]

Two things here:

I'm not sure Keldon is on the market.

This is very true. I'd also add we don't even know if the Spurs have ANY real interest in moving up. That's sort of what I meant by my last sentence suggesting we'd have to wait and see if we get some better rumors or reports about what the Spurs intend to do.


The highlighted above. I don't see how the Spurs can outright buy a nice pick with future draft capital. I've identified teams I think would trade out of the first round, but their placement isn't good. I could see a Utah (16) selling an extra pick for future picks (not necessarily what you list here). That is, if they can't themselves move up.

It depends on the pick in my mind. I do think that trio could get 11 if Orlando is wary about making another rookie to go with their young guys. I think 10 from Dallas is very gettable as a combo of a couple of those picks and trading Graham for THJ. Both of those teams are likely to be active in the trade market and should appreciate future picks to play with. After the lottery, I'd drop the Spurs first for 33, and I think there would be takers. I would not be too inclined to just toss in the Chicago pick starting at around 18. I don't want the team to draft 1, 18 AND 33 and 44. I do think 33 and the CHA pick would be an appealing combo to a number of teams up there, and whether Kobe or any other desired player is still on the board would have to be determined at the time.

[Chinook]

Good thread, Mr. Body (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=397) :tu

I agree that I don't think a Keldon trade happens, for a variety of reasons. One of the reasons is I don't think his value is as high as Spurs fans apparently think it is. He'd be a classic case of "if the Spurs are looking to trade him, something most be wrong" that has ironically hurt the Spurs in a variety of trade negotiations.

I do think that if Johnson were moved at any other time but the draft, that stink would be strong. The Spurs moving up to get a second high first I think would be a logical enough motivation to prevent other teams for worrying about what it means. Johnson is one of the older "young players". Trading him out for a lotto pick just seems like good business. Now teams should reconsider if there is something they don't know about whomever the Spurs ask them to draft, but it should be noted that Indy got a good deal for the 15th pick when they traded for Hill. Kawhi being a HoFer doesn't change the fact that a long-term starting guard in line with the rest of the team's core wasn't a bad use of a non-lotto first.

No idea on his trade value in terms of its upper limit. But I do think that he would be an intriguing option for teams looking for decent players who aren't overpaid. He can be your third or fourth option, and he's being paid to be that now and will only be a better deal as time goes on. RGMers are decent fans of his, though who knows how they track with actual GMs.

[BacktoBasics]

I’m exhausted by the “move Keldon” talk. Moving him for anything outside the top 4 or a clear and definitive player upgrade is Spurstalk idiocy at its finest. Especially with all the draft capital we have.

We absolutely need production over project/promise for Wembys first season. Expecting him or Vassell or committee to carry the offense load is a bad idea.

Moving him for a late lottery pick is rolling the dice that you’d luck out and get another Keldon that we already have smh

[JPB]

I also don't believe Keldon is on the market. Keldon is a nice player and it's not because his ceiling ain't superstar that he hasn't a place in SA. Spurs like him and and you know what you got with him. You don't with prospects who haven't played one minute in the NBA.

[Mr. Body]

A note on San Antonio's draft capital:

I don't think the treasure trove is as tradeable as we think. And not because it's not valuable.

- The Atlanta picks are unprotected in 2025 and 2027
- The Charlotte pick is protected 1-14, and 1-14, the next two years.
- The Toronto pick is protected 1-6, 1-6, and 1-6, the next three years.
- The Chicago pick is protected 1-10 in 2025, 1-8 in 2026, 1-8 in 2027
- Our own picks

The Atlanta picks are probably unmoveable. They could be high lottery picks.

The Charlotte pick probably has some interest, but are resolutely non-lottery picks. It may not convey, but looks like it probably will. The Toronto pick would be more attractive, but if they crater, it could be pretty nice. They could just as likely be late lottery or a playoff team again. The Chicago pick looks fairly tasty, tbh, unless they outright tank. (The timing may not be great.)

As a rule, teams value current-year draft picks far, far higher than anything in the future, and deep future less than near future. This is because GMs want to make splashes, owners and fans want progress.

The Spurs own picks...

Looking back, we've rarely traded our first round picks. In the last 20plus years, we traded first round picks (our own, and Phoenix, generated by the Barbosa trade) to the Knicks for Nazr Mohammed. The Knicks picked David Lee and Marty Collins. I would say overall a win, as David Lee's best years were after New York and Nazr was a good center for us.

In 2000, Chicago picked Dalibor Bagaric with our FRP, whoever the hell that is (can't immediately find what we got). In 1999, the Spurs picked poor Leon Smith on behalf of Dallas. In 2009, we traded Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, and our FRP for Kurt Thomas. The pick became Rodrigue Beaubois. In 2012 the Spurs traded Richard Jefferson, TJ Ford, and this FRP for Stephen Jackson. The pick became Festus Ezeli. Since that year, the Spurs used every one of their first round draft picks, to a high degree of success.

The Spurs' picks going forward are big question marks. If Wembanyama pans out and the team contends, they will be in the 20s. If things go wrong, we won't want to have traded any of them. Also, if there are protections, this freezes the ability to trade picks in adjacent years (if we do realize we're contending).

It gets harder to add talent through the draft the better a team becomes. You can see this as the franchise kept trying to flip late FRPs with players to stay in contention. I could see SAS trading one of their own picks, but it feels unlikely.

In any case... We have a really nice bunch of picks. However, to me, the only really tradeable first round picks we have right now are the Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago picks.

[Mr. Body]

I also don't believe Keldon is on the market. Keldon is a nice player and it's not because his ceiling ain't superstar that he hasn't a place in SA. Spurs like him and and you know what you got with him. You don't with prospects who haven't played one minute in the NBA.

Above all, Keldon is an incredible locker room guy at a time when the team is integrating the highest profile player in some time. When not shouldering a humongous load, he hits threes at a really nice rate. He can cut and punish teams for doubling on the big guy. These are good things to have around Wembanyama.

[The Truth #6]

At the moment I feel like not making any changes and going into the next season with basically the same roster, maybe we pick up someone at number 33 that sticks, ideally a veteran college player who looks to be reliable, and then just take it easy with VW’s health and if we’re in the lottery again, then so be it. And then after the first year start making more aggressive moves.

[BacktoBasics]

A note on San Antonio's draft capital:

I don't think the treasure trove is as tradeable as we think. And not because it's not valuable.

- The Atlanta picks are unprotected in 2025 and 2027
- The Charlotte pick is protected 1-14, and 1-14, the next two years.
- The Toronto pick is protected 1-6, 1-6, and 1-6, the next three years.
- The Chicago pick is protected 1-10 in 2025, 1-8 in 2026, 1-8 in 2027
- Our own picks

The Atlanta picks are probably unmoveable. They could be high lottery picks.

The Charlotte pick probably has some interest, but are resolutely non-lottery picks. It may not convey, but looks like it probably will. The Toronto pick would be more attractive, but if they crater, it could be pretty nice. They could just as likely be late lottery or a playoff team again. The Chicago pick looks fairly tasty, tbh, unless they outright tank. (The timing may not be great.)

As a rule, teams value current-year draft picks far, far higher than anything in the future, and deep future less than near future. This is because GMs want to make splashes, owners and fans want progress.

The Spurs own picks...

Looking back, we've rarely traded our first round picks. In the last 20plus years, we traded first round picks (our own, and Phoenix, generated by the Barbosa trade) to the Knicks for Nazr Mohammed. The Knicks picked David Lee and Marty Collins. I would say overall a win, as David Lee's best years were after New York and Nazr was a good center for us.

In 2000, Chicago picked Dalibor Bagaric with our FRP, whoever the hell that is (can't immediately find what we got). In 1999, the Spurs picked poor Leon Smith on behalf of Dallas. In 2009, we traded Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, and our FRP for Kurt Thomas. The pick became Rodrigue Beaubois. In 2012 the Spurs traded Richard Jefferson, TJ Ford, and this FRP for Stephen Jackson. The pick became Festus Ezeli. Since that year, the Spurs used every one of their first round draft picks, to a high degree of success.

The Spurs' picks going forward are big question marks. If Wembanyama pans out and the team contends, they will be in the 20s. If things go wrong, we won't want to have traded any of them. Also, if there are protections, this freezes the ability to trade picks in adjacent years (if we do realize we're contending).

It gets harder to add talent through the draft the better a team becomes. You can see this as the franchise kept trying to flip late FRPs with players to stay in contention. I could see SAS trading one of their own picks, but it feels unlikely.

In any case... We have a really nice bunch of picks. However, to me, the only really tradeable first round picks we have right now are the Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago picks.

Thanks for posting this. Shockingly none of those traded picks amounted to anything. Which is precisely why you don’t dump a productive player in Keldon for a gamble.

The time to look at a Keldon trade would be next offseason if another player on this roster emerges as a legitimate starter. If Branham averages 17ppg with good efficiency. I could see a guy like Keldon becoming expendable for an additional proven upgrade or better fitting player.

Right now today with Tre, Jeremy, Vassell and Keldon I think we have a nice landing spot for Wemby. He’s not gonna be forced to carry the load and our core has already shown a respectable amount of chemistry on the floor and in the locker.

We have the luxury of being able to exercise some patience.

[exstatic]

A note on San Antonio's draft capital:

I don't think the treasure trove is as tradeable as we think. And not because it's not valuable.

- The Atlanta picks are unprotected in 2025 and 2027
- The Charlotte pick is protected 1-14, and 1-14, the next two years.
- The Toronto pick is protected 1-6, 1-6, and 1-6, the next three years.
- The Chicago pick is protected 1-10 in 2025, 1-8 in 2026, 1-8 in 2027
- Our own picks

The Atlanta picks are probably unmoveable. They could be high lottery picks.

The Charlotte pick probably has some interest, but are resolutely non-lottery picks. It may not convey, but looks like it probably will. The Toronto pick would be more attractive, but if they crater, it could be pretty nice. They could just as likely be late lottery or a playoff team again. The Chicago pick looks fairly tasty, tbh, unless they outright tank. (The timing may not be great.)

As a rule, teams value current-year draft picks far, far higher than anything in the future, and deep future less than near future. This is because GMs want to make splashes, owners and fans want progress.

The Spurs own picks...

Looking back, we've rarely traded our first round picks. In the last 20plus years, we traded first round picks (our own, and Phoenix, generated by the Barbosa trade) to the Knicks for Nazr Mohammed. The Knicks picked David Lee and Marty Collins. I would say overall a win, as David Lee's best years were after New York and Nazr was a good center for us.

In 2000, Chicago picked Dalibor Bagaric with our FRP, whoever the hell that is (can't immediately find what we got). In 1999, the Spurs picked poor Leon Smith on behalf of Dallas. In 2009, we traded Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, and our FRP for Kurt Thomas. The pick became Rodrigue Beaubois. In 2012 the Spurs traded Richard Jefferson, TJ Ford, and this FRP for Stephen Jackson. The pick became Festus Ezeli. Since that year, the Spurs used every one of their first round draft picks, to a high degree of success.

The Spurs' picks going forward are big question marks. If Wembanyama pans out and the team contends, they will be in the 20s. If things go wrong, we won't want to have traded any of them. Also, if there are protections, this freezes the ability to trade picks in adjacent years (if we do realize we're contending).

It gets harder to add talent through the draft the better a team becomes. You can see this as the franchise kept trying to flip late FRPs with players to stay in contention. I could see SAS trading one of their own picks, but it feels unlikely.

In any case... We have a really nice bunch of picks. However, to me, the only really tradeable first round picks we have right now are the Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago picks.

I wouldn’t trade the TOR pick this summer. I’d wait to see the direction they pick. They went from a 6 seed to a play in loser with a virtually identical roster. There’s some thought that this version of the Raps has gone as far as it can. They are in a financial crunch, too, but even if they bring everyone back, they might still be a repeat lottery team.

[buttsR4rebounding]

The picks that I wouldn't trade unless the return just blew you away are the Toronto pick, the Atlanta picks, the Spurs' 2025 and 2028 picks which have the Atlanta and Boston swaps attached. I think the order of least value FRPs is 2030 SAS, 2029 SAS, 2027 SAS, 2026 SAS, 2024 Charlotte, 2024 SAS, 2025 Chicago, 2024 Toronto. Unless Wemby busts for whatever reason I would totally expect the Spurs own picks from 2026 on to be in the 20s and hopefully near 30 by the end of the decade.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, processing all this stuff, I'm coming to terms with not wanting to be aggressive trading up. Keep the powder dry. They can figure out what to do with six draft picks next year (!!).

Future strategies include flipping picks ahead, to be used when our own picks are late first rounders.

We also still have a ton of cap space that can be used to 'help' teams, by which we can accrue more.

I don't know if the SRPs we have will be worth much in trade; we may wind up selling them.

This year, I hold hope we can possibly move the 33 and next year's CHA to this year's GSW or BKN (19, 21, or 22), if 'our guy' is there. But honestly feel they're looking at exactly the same player(s) we are.

[CGD]

I think the "wanting to get off salary" piece, at least as a factor, gets underrated especially if you believe the Larry Coons, Bobby Marks, etc. types on the impacts of the new CBA. It would be useful to know which teams are most desperate to move off money, and build that in to the analysis.

[scott]

I agree with Chinook that coming out of this draft with 2 FRPs in 23, 24 and 25 is the most beneficial outcome. Having 6 picks in 2 years with all the current youth seems like an unmanageable situation. As far as Keldon I see him as the odd man out long-term. I just think the optics of trading your "face-of-the-franchise" 2 years in a row is something the Spurs will have a hard time coming to grips with. This obviously has to be weighed against long term roster construction and maximizing KJ's value. Do you think he is at max value now or do you think he increases his value when he is not the focus of the defense and likely is able increase his efficiency? To me this is the biggest question the Spurs have right now.

I'm not arguing this point at all, but wouldn't it really be 3 years in a row (with an extra mid-year if you count Derrick). Derozan, (White), Murray, Keldon. Maybe the Spurs are more comfortable than we think with this.

[duncan2150]

i'm ready to moove the charlotte pick and our secound rounds and then see what you got

imo the raptors pick is valuable, not so protected and raps could not make the playoffs next year

top ten looks out of reach, maybe pick 10, lottery also, imo a pick in the 20's could be interesting if i have a true target

[wildbill2u]

Lets let the dust settle and then see if a trade is possible that will seriously help us. I think we are getting too high on going high. The consensus on this draft early on was that after the top two-five picks, the pickings of high ceiling players were slim and none

[WEMBY4theWIN]

If you’re willing to give those picks why not throw 2 more assets for Scoot?

if he hits and is Rose/Westbrook type you have 4-5yrs where you could really build a great team around those salaries.

I think you go all out for Scoot or target JHS or Sasser at the end of the first or 33 and potentially go after Collier next year if they don’t pan out.

[Davidicus]

My gut is Spurs FO see too many unknowns with their current assets/roster alongside Wemby to make any big moves into the early to mid 1st round. The risk of not knowing what you had (before you traded it away) is too great vs the very high cost of trading up (for another unknown). My point is, everything is TBD with Wemby pairings until mid/late next season, so why pay an arm and a leg for another TBD.

I could see them trading up to 20+ for a player they covet, that has fallen down the draft order, and getting a good deal on that trade-up. A double bargain.

Other than that, I think it’s a pretty low-key draft for us. Minus, you know, drafting Victor Wembanyama.

[rascal]

The Spurs know what they have. Some of these guys have been in the league a few years now.

They know an upgrade at pg is needed and perimeter shooting.

The Spurs will never be contenders with the current roster as is even with Wemby so I want to see a proactive approach in trying to acquire another fisrt round pick to address pg or shooting.

Just letting Wemby fall into your lap and do nothing else is passive.
Wright gives me hope something will happen with a trade unlike past years where the FO was way too conservative in making moves.

[WEMBY4theWIN]

The Spurs know what they have. Some of these guys have been in the league a few years now.

They know an upgrade at pg is needed and perimeter shooting.

The Spurs will never be contenders with the current roster as is even with Wemby so I want to see a proactive approach in trying to acquire another fisrt round pick to address pg or shooting.

Just letting Wemby fall into your lap and do nothing else is passive.
Wright gives me hope something will happen with a trade unlike past years where the FO was way too conservative in making moves.


I agree 100%. We have to move some of these picks no matter what we do at some point. Why not go after a potential star in scoot. Historically if the picks aren’t in the top 3 the chances of drafting a star go down significantly. Only assets not on the table are the Hawks picks IMO. Time to take the bat out and take a swing. If you miss we still have a solid core and assets to not be set back that much.

[rascal]

I agree 100%. We have to move some of these picks no matter what we do at some point. Why not go after a potential star in scoot. Historically if the picks aren’t in the top 3 the chances of drafting a star go down significantly. Only assets not on the table are the Hawks picks IMO. Time to take the bat out and take a swing. If you miss we still have a solid core and assets to not be set back that much.

I agree

Try to keep the Atlanta unprotected picks and everything else even the spurs picks are on the table for trade.

There are some solid pg options in this year's draft.

Look at how weak last year's draft class was in pgs.
Spurs need to be proactive and try hard to make a trade to move into the first round and get their targeted pg this year.

[rascal]

I agree 100%. We have to move some of these picks no matter what we do at some point. Why not go after a potential star in scoot. Historically if the picks aren’t in the top 3 the chances of drafting a star go down significantly. Only assets not on the table are the Hawks picks IMO. Time to take the bat out and take a swing. If you miss we still have a solid core and assets to not be set back that much.

Double post

[baseline bum]

A note on San Antonio's draft capital:

I don't think the treasure trove is as tradeable as we think. And not because it's not valuable.

- The Atlanta picks are unprotected in 2025 and 2027
- The Charlotte pick is protected 1-14, and 1-14, the next two years.
- The Toronto pick is protected 1-6, 1-6, and 1-6, the next three years.
- The Chicago pick is protected 1-10 in 2025, 1-8 in 2026, 1-8 in 2027
- Our own picks

The Atlanta picks are probably unmoveable. They could be high lottery picks.

The Charlotte pick probably has some interest, but are resolutely non-lottery picks. It may not convey, but looks like it probably will. The Toronto pick would be more attractive, but if they crater, it could be pretty nice. They could just as likely be late lottery or a playoff team again. The Chicago pick looks fairly tasty, tbh, unless they outright tank. (The timing may not be great.)

As a rule, teams value current-year draft picks far, far higher than anything in the future, and deep future less than near future. This is because GMs want to make splashes, owners and fans want progress.

The Spurs own picks...

Looking back, we've rarely traded our first round picks. In the last 20plus years, we traded first round picks (our own, and Phoenix, generated by the Barbosa trade) to the Knicks for Nazr Mohammed. The Knicks picked David Lee and Marty Collins. I would say overall a win, as David Lee's best years were after New York and Nazr was a good center for us.

In 2000, Chicago picked Dalibor Bagaric with our FRP, whoever the hell that is (can't immediately find what we got). In 1999, the Spurs picked poor Leon Smith on behalf of Dallas. In 2009, we traded Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, and our FRP for Kurt Thomas. The pick became Rodrigue Beaubois. In 2012 the Spurs traded Richard Jefferson, TJ Ford, and this FRP for Stephen Jackson. The pick became Festus Ezeli. Since that year, the Spurs used every one of their first round draft picks, to a high degree of success.

The Spurs' picks going forward are big question marks. If Wembanyama pans out and the team contends, they will be in the 20s. If things go wrong, we won't want to have traded any of them. Also, if there are protections, this freezes the ability to trade picks in adjacent years (if we do realize we're contending).

It gets harder to add talent through the draft the better a team becomes. You can see this as the franchise kept trying to flip late FRPs with players to stay in contention. I could see SAS trading one of their own picks, but it feels unlikely.

In any case... We have a really nice bunch of picks. However, to me, the only really tradeable first round picks we have right now are the Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago picks.

The Atlanta picks possibly being high lottery could be what could get you a disgruntled star, with Doncic the dream scenario. Wonder if the Spurs can trade the unprotected Hawks pick swap and the #1 protected Celtics pick swap too though. Not sure if the CBA allows that, but those could be some extremely valuable pieces to make a win now move in a couple of years.

[scott]

Are we able to to add protections and trade picks that aren't ours? For example, could we trade the Atl picks with Top 8 protection, so that 1-8 it is ours, otherwise it goes to the other team? It would have to be a one shot deal, since obviously we can't carry the pick over to the following year (but perhaps it turns into a Spurs Top 6 protected pick the following year?)

[rankingtear]

Are we able to to add protections and trade picks that aren't ours? For example, could we trade the Atl picks with Top 8 protection, so that 1-8 it is ours, otherwise it goes to the other team? It would have to be a one shot deal, since obviously we can't carry the pick over to the following year (but perhaps it turns into a Spurs Top 6 protected pick the following year?)

Yes Pelicans did it last year.

[Bruno]

To me, the most important is that: Spurs do not need to do a trade.

They will talk to other teams because they have some trading assets and they could use another good rookie but they won't force the issue. If teams are asking for too much to trade their pick, Spurs will just do nothing and be fine with that.

It's a nice place to be for Spurs' FO.

[rankingtear]

We are not really in position to get into the lottery. Every scenario just does not make sense. We are losing too much value without a pick anywhere close to that range.

[CGD]

Just keep 33. It’s probably just as valuable as say 25-30 given that late first round is more of an “eye of the beholder” place than anything else. “Their guy” could just fall into their laps naturally.

Wouldn’t mind just trying to rollover 44 to another year like they did last year.

[JPB]

Just keep 33. It’s probably just as valuable as say 25-30 given that late first round is more of an “eye of the beholder” place than anything else. “Their guy” could just fall into their laps naturally.

Wouldn’t mind just trying to rollover 44 to another year like they did last year.

Spurs grabbed Malaki and Blake last year in the 20s. I believe there might be one or two interesting guys in the 20s this year. If Bilal is still there after 15 for example, I'd like spurs to try to go and get him if the cost is right. If he's there after 20, no hesitation.

[Extra Stout]

To me, the most important is that: Spurs do not need to do a trade.

They will talk to other teams because they have some trading assets and they could use another good rookie but they won't force the issue. If teams are asking for too much to trade their pick, Spurs will just do nothing and be fine with that.

It's a nice place to be for Spurs' FO.
I don’t know anything about working in a front office, but maybe it works like this?

Out of all the scouting the team does for the draft, the output is a relatively small number of players to focus on.

They boil down the player’s strengths and weaknesses, incorporating team needs, into a rating, a value.

Each of their other existing players also have ratings, also incorporating things like corporate knowledge. There are ratings for how valuable they are to the Spurs, and how valuable they would be to other teams.

Each draft asset also has ratings based upon things like how likely they are to convey in what year, and in what slot.

Any trade this close to the draft would be based upon a specific player, rather than trading up to a slot just for its own sake.

Based upon their ratings system, the team would be able to assess what kinds of trade packages represent good value to acquire specific players they might want.

If they find another team where both agree the trade represents good value, then it happens. If not, then it doesn’t.

[cd98]

I think Keldon is a good player, but his trade value probably doesn't equal his actual value. GMs care if you win a post-season award or you make an all-star team. Murray was a backup addition to the all-star team after injuries. He was a solid player and worthy of a spot on the all-star team, but it took some injury luck for him to get the nod. Once he was an all-star, that legitimized his triple doubles etc. to the rest of the basketball world and allowed the Spurs to get a big haul when they traded him.

Portland will trade their pick but they want a piece that will help them contend for a title and Keldon and picks won't do that. Charlotte has no reason to trade their pick. If the player they pick pans out as projected, then that's way better than what they could trade for and they'd get their number two pick on a rookie contract. It would take something special for them to trade that pick and I don't know if they would do it for all the assets that we have to give. I mean, the Number 2 pick this year is the equivalent of the number 1 pick most years in the NBA.

I think rather than drafting a point guard, we should keep what we got and get Chris Paul. He will be a good leader for a young team, cost almost nothing to get, and then we can release him at the end of the year so he can join a contender and we can cut loose that salary. Then next year, with a draft pick that will likely be late lottery or in the teens, we may be able to trade for a good point guard prospect assuming that none of the young guys grab the mantle.

[NickiRasgo]

I know a lot of this is banging around in other threads, but I thought some people might like hashing out from our amateur perspective what it might take to get a second first round pick. Less who we would like to get, rather what certain spots might require.
Top 2-6. There are fans of going hard for Scoot or Miller. The Detroit pick (5) might be for sale, which could net a different player. IMO, all of these will be prohibitively expensive, requiring Keldon Johnson and multiple firsts. Even then, I don't think the Spurs can beat what other teams will offer.


Going for Scoot is not a good idea, Scoot is doing a little bit of campaigning already by saying that the Spurs should consider him for the #1. Maybe I overreacting but doesn't sound good for me and it's not like he really wanted to play for the Spurs, it just happens that the Spurs have the #1 pick. It's quite a red flag for me that he seem cares more on his branding and sooner, gonna go something else (bigger market team). If the Spurs get him, he'll compete against Victor to be the ROTY to prove himself and it won't be healthy for the team.

Ironically, before the Spurs get the #1 pick is I don't mind him as a consolation pick/reward due to his character but it seems not looking good lately. Also quite getting off with players going with G-League instead off NCAA or some competitive leagues since they are there to play without pressure while getting paid and just showcasing stats/highlights to rise their draft stock. Victor is currently still playing competitively while Scoot didn't even finish his G-League season.

[NickiRasgo]

To me, the most important is that: Spurs do not need to do a trade.

They will talk to other teams because they have some trading assets and they could use another good rookie but they won't force the issue. If teams are asking for too much to trade their pick, Spurs will just do nothing and be fine with that.

It's a nice place to be for Spurs' FO.

Damn. Bruno sighting. :toast

[spurraider21]

To me, the most important is that: Spurs do not need to do a trade.

They will talk to other teams because they have some trading assets and they could use another good rookie but they won't force the issue. If teams are asking for too much to trade their pick, Spurs will just do nothing and be fine with that.

It's a nice place to be for Spurs' FO.
While yes, the Spurs can be patient (Wemby will be a 19 year old rookie), it should also be noted that we have a lot of picks to spend, and its going to be challenging to simultaneously develop potentially 6 first round picks in a 2 year stretch. There is merit to consolidation. The other aspect is that there seems to be a consensus that this year's draft is better/deeper than next year. Not all #20 overall picks are equal.

[Mr. Body]

Some chatter that Orlando might be okay trading their #11 away, although I feel they grab Gradey Dick if he's still available. They may also try to consolidate and move up.

Magic fans note that they have a lot of young players to develop already. They don't think Coulibaly has a promise from them. They feel like they have their centerpieces in Franz and Banchero and like Fultz. Their main concern is shooting.

I still maintain the Spurs would need to get a later FRP to be attractive to move up, but I guess Orlando may want to trade for future draft capital. (No, I don't think McDermott moves the needle.)

Other teams may want that #11, too. My inexplicable gut is that the Spurs could try two first round picks (CHA, one of their own?) plus some SRPs, but feel like that won't do it. That spot will probably get you a Wallace or a Bufkin. Question is how much you want to pay.

[Mugen]

Some chatter that Orlando might be okay trading their #11 away, although I feel they grab Gradey Dick if he's still available. They may also try to consolidate and move up.

Magic fans note that they have a lot of young players to develop already. They don't think Coulibaly has a promise from them. They feel like they have their centerpieces in Franz and Banchero and like Fultz. Their main concern is shooting.

I still maintain the Spurs would need to get a later FRP to be attractive to move up, but I guess Orlando may want to trade for future draft capital. (No, I don't think McDermott moves the needle.)

Other teams may want that #11, too. My inexplicable gut is that the Spurs could try two first round picks (CHA, one of their own?) plus some SRPs, but feel like that won't do it. That spot will probably get you a Wallace or a Bufkin. Question is how much you want to pay.

:lol I'm telling you, Body...two first rounders and McNuggets gets this done. Shit, throw Graham in there and take back MAGA Isaac's shitty contract and buy him out if needed....

Bufkin is a Manu/TP hybrid and belongs in San Antonio tbh :lol

[Mr. Body]

:lol I'm telling you, Body...two first rounders and McNuggets gets this done. Shit, throw Graham in there and take back MAGA Isaac's shitty contract and buy him out if needed....

Bufkin is a Manu/TP hybrid and belongs in San Antonio tbh :lol

I don't think Orlando would mind having Dougie. I don't see him as a selling point. His value to the Spurs is probably higher than what they can get for him, and I feel like he'll be following his dad into coaching.

What picks do I think Orlando would want to give up on the #11? The package would have to be enough to fend off other suitors who might have younger active players to trade. Orlando controls all their picks going forward. They get an extra lightly protected Denver FRP in 2025 and a poo-poo platter of SRPs over the years. Some extra draft oomph might be attractive if their guy isn't there at #11 this year.

Tbh, I think Orlando is putting together a good team. Their drafts have been good lately.

Basis of a trade offer, to me, would be something like CHA24 and then a later pick, probably one of the non-ATL ones in 2025. I think they'll want the TOR24 pick instead. What pick in 2025? At that point, the SAS might be okay with trading their own picks, but will want to put light protections on them.

Does TOR24 and CHI25 do it? I feel like they'd push for another pick. Plump with SRPs, they probably won't be swayed there. Would the Spurs put in a lottery protected SAS27, knowing they're likely in the playoffs at that point and they get the ATL27 anyway?

There's a balance there somewhere. There's a limit to what they should do.

To me, I'd do TOR24 (preferably CHA24) and CHI25 (preferably protected SAS25). I find a third pick a bit too rich, but probably necessary. At that point, I don't know.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

You're looking at this way too narrowly by just trading picks for picks. If they really want to move into the first round, I'm sure they could offer some combination of 33 and 44 and taking on some bad contracts. There should be plenty of teams looking to either clear out current cap to get better immediately or trying to get ahead of the dreaded second tier penalties: Golden State, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, and the Lakers all have picks somewhere from 10 to 19.

[exstatic]

Unless you’re Sam Presti with a hard on, you do not trade 3 FRPs for a pick outside of the top 10.

[Mr. Body]

You're looking at this way too narrowly by just trading picks for picks. If they really want to move into the first round, I'm sure they could offer some combination of 33 and 44 and taking on some bad contracts. There should be plenty of teams looking to either clear out current cap to get better immediately or trying to get ahead of the dreaded second tier penalties: Golden State, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, and the Lakers all have picks somewhere from 10 to 19.

My first post in this thread mentioned taking on salary. Orlando wouldn't need that - they're in good shape.

In general teams don't dump picks for salary. They don't like giving up the chance at a productive player, who is going to be on a cheap rookie contract, for salary room. Last year was very unusual in the Knicks and Charlotte both working to do so. If anything, they might want to trade future draft assets after the current draft is done.

I have identified GSW as a team that might want to trade out of this year. A package with Dallas might be attractive, but they really don't have to dump salary, and they need at least one young player out of this draft, which we cannot provide - the 33 wouldn't do it, not all the way to 10.

Atlanta is a cypher to me. They have some gross contracts, but they are very long and I don't see taking them on just to move up. I don't even know what kind of player they need in this draft; but think they'll hold off on making cap moves until post-draft.

Miami, you have the same thing, where some contracts are so gargantuan that absorbing them to move for one draft pick doesn't make sense. I also see them waiting until after the draft.

[Mr. Body]

Unless you’re Sam Presti with a hard on, you do not trade 3 FRPs for a pick outside of the top 10.

You do if your player is there.

Say, if Anthony Black tumbles out of the top 10 for some reason, I pounce. Not only do I get who I regard (personally) as a top 5 player in this draft, I'm getting him on a #11 salary. I don't care where I get him.

[AFBlue]

Appreciate the breakdown Mr. Body

[BackHome]

Just on a side note on Black shooting:

32% on jump shoots
21% on unguarded catch and shoots
51% on layups
31% off the dribble
25% shoots going Left as he is Right hand dominate

[Ditty]

Black will be really fine player in the NBA imo.

I don’t think the Spurs are in the Durant joining the Warriors in 2016 envious territory around the league, but I believe in that regard that they are just a step below as there is no love lost with the Spurs around the league again. Maybe they are owners around the league who are telling their GM’s to not do business with Spurs because how Holt celebrated by banging the table and yelling when we got the first pick tbh :rolleyes.

On that note, I don’t think teams will be helping the Spurs one bit unless they overpay imo. It might be a pick your poison risk that teams might have to take. The Spurs might have a really good problem like OKC in a few years with having possibly too many talented young picks and just throwing a team together but not having enough roster spaces - or they just hit on numerous random picks on rookie contracts, they get at least two lottery picks from Atlanta & Boston in 2028 while the Spurs are contenders now. Then the Spurs are just unstoppable for at least an entire decade.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Black will be really fine player in the NBA imo.

I don’t think the Spurs are in the Durant joining the Warriors in 2016 envious territory around the league, but I believe in that regard that they are just a step below as there is no love lost with the Spurs around the league again. Maybe they are owners around the league who are telling their GM’s to not do business with Spurs because how Holt celebrated by banging the table and yelling when we got the first pick tbh :rolleyes.

On that note, I don’t think teams will be helping the Spurs one bit unless they overpay imo. It might be a pick your poison risk that teams might have to take. The Spurs might have a really good problem like OKC in a few years with having possibly too many talented young picks and just throwing a team together but not having enough roster spaces - or they just hit on numerous random picks on rookie contracts, they get at least two lottery picks from Atlanta & Boston in 2028 while the Spurs are contenders now. Then the Spurs are just unstoppable for at least an entire decade.

No one cares that Holt banged the table. His celebration was rather subdued given the stakes. Teams will trade with the Spurs if they perceive the trade to be in their own best interest. Every GM goes into every trade trying to make the other guy “overpay”.

[Degoat]

The way I see it, that Charlotte and Chicago pick should be shopped around. Keep our own, hawks, and Raptors pick.

[Mr. Body]

No one cares that Holt banged the table. His celebration was rather subdued given the stakes. Teams will trade with the Spurs if they perceive the trade to be in their own best interest. Every GM goes into every trade trying to make the other guy “overpay”.

No one expects owners to be anything but idiot dickbags, especially the kids of owners. The impression of a stunned Brian Wright in the drawing itself is more charming.

[exstatic]

No one expects owners to be anything but idiot dickbags, especially the kids of owners. The impression of a stunned Brian Wright in the drawing itself is more charming.

Holt the younger is now the managing partner of the Spurs. The parents are out of the picture.

[Mr. Body]

Holt the younger is now the managing partner of the Spurs. The parents are out of the picture.

Did he stop being the child of his father?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Did he stop being the child of his father?

No, but contractually they have no executive power. Jr. only gives as much power as he wants.

[Mr. Body]

No, but contractually they have no executive power. Jr. only gives as much power as he wants.

Has nothing to do with what I was talking about.

[exstatic]

Has nothing to do with what I was talking about.

You were talking about the younger Holt being 'the kid of the owner'. He's not. His parents no longer own shares, so he's not the kid of an owner. He's the managing partner (largest share owner), and the parents are out of the ownership group.

[Mr. Body]

You were talking about the younger Holt being 'the kid of the owner'. He's not. His parents no longer own shares, so he's not the kid of an owner. He's the managing partner (largest share owner), and the parents are out of the ownership group.

I was talking about how he can't handle himself in public because he's the scion of rich fucks. Don't give a shit about who he is now, he's still been raised to be an asshole.

[DPG21920]

I’m with Chinook here…I think consolidation of picks makes a lot of sense and I’m ok over paying some if it’s a guy SA likes. That’s benefit of having extra picks; you can overpay and still be ok if you love someone.

There seems to be teams willing to deal picks this year on the surface; so if SA wants, even if costs are high, there should be opportunities.

[SpursGenius]

Do whatever you have to to get Bilal and Anthony Black to join Wemby in this draft. Next years draft not as strong so we don’t need two frps next year.

wemby
sochan
bilal
black
Vassel

That is a young core that could lead to another dynasty.

add in the Atlanta picks and Boston swap for three other stars.

all other picks and Keldon are at your disposal to make this happen.

[DPG21920]

If SA could swap Keldon for Whitmore or Black I’d seriously consider that.

[Kevin]

People need to realize the Hornets pick isn't worth much given its protections and that the Hornets are such a clown show FO its far promised it will ever convey into a first round pick. Of course that's the reason people are so willing to sell it.

[Mr. Body]

Do whatever you have to to get Bilal and Anthony Black to join Wemby in this draft. Next years draft not as strong so we don’t need two frps next year.

wemby
sochan
bilal
black
Vassel

That is a young core that could lead to another dynasty.

add in the Atlanta picks and Boston swap for three other stars.

all other picks and Keldon are at your disposal to make this happen.

We have no idea how good the draft is next year. It may not look great at top but it could turn out like last year where a lot of lottery picks have hit already and there's promise even afterwards.

But yes the perception is there.

[exstatic]

Do whatever you have to to get Bilal and Anthony Black to join Wemby in this draft. Next years draft not as strong so we don’t need two frps next year.

wemby
sochan
bilal
black
Vassel

That is a young core that could lead to another dynasty.

add in the Atlanta picks and Boston swap for three other stars.

all other picks and Keldon are at your disposal to make this happen.

There is no generational prospect, but that doesn't mean it can't be a good to great draft. No one saw Anthony Black or Taylor Hendricks a year ago, and they're both concencus top 10 picks.

[RC_Drunkford]

There are actually plenty of guards who can shoot off the dribble in the 2024 draft, it‘s just that none of those prospects stand out. That should change next year. But still this seems like the strongest draft class in years, so I want the Spurs to grab another player in the first round

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Has nothing to do with what I was talking about.

Sorry I thought you had something more interesting to say than all rich people are dicks.

[Mr. Body]

Sorry I thought you had something more interesting to say than all rich people are dicks.

I say a lot of things. You get to pick and chose if you want.

And yeah, pretty much all of our problems are due to rich fucks. That's without question.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I say a lot of things. You get to pick and chose if you want.

And yeah, pretty much all of our problems are due to rich fucks. That's without question.

As a class sure but this family cedes control to experts and do little more than fist pump at press events and games. Great owners.

[Mr. Body]

As a class sure but this family cedes control to experts and do little more than fist pump at press events and games. Great owners.

Jesus Christ.

[rankingtear]

Do whatever you have to to get Bilal and Anthony Black to join Wemby in this draft. Next years draft not as strong so we don’t need two frps next year.

wemby
sochan
bilal
black
Vassel

That is a young core that could lead to another dynasty.

add in the Atlanta picks and Boston swap for three other stars.

all other picks and Keldon are at your disposal to make this happen.

This is some 2k type rebuild.

[R. DeMurre]

Its so interesting this time of year to go back, read the old draft articles, and look at the evolution of picks and how much good fortune plays into the reputations, good or bad, of talent evaluators... Way back in 2007, Sam Presti really lucked out when his team got the #2 pick in the draft, and chose Durant after Portland took Oden. But according to most reports, Presti-- like most others that year-- had Oden #1 on his draft board. If Seattle had landed the #1 pick, people would be hammering Presti as the guy who picked Oden rather than the brilliant guy who took Durant. To judge scouting, you really have to get the full picture of moves over a good period of time, and eventually it's like rating good three point shooters vs mediocre three point shooters-- the difference is pretty subtle, like 38.5% vs 35.7%. Most people, when they debate scouting, tend to rely on one or two results as some sort of proof of or lack of insight, but that's generally not a fair way to judge it. My favorite discussion recently is the debate about productive "High Floor" guys vs less productive "High Ceiling" players, and the opinion that in the long run the high floor guys probably give a greater return. Golden State is the team many talk about, after taking Wiseman and Kuminga over guys like Haliburton and Franz Wagner. Really interesting perspective in my opinion. Of course, the Spurs just went all in on a 14% bet and won, and that has the potential to work out nicely for them. But the high floor approach is intriguing, and one of the reasons I like them having two early second round picks, where possibly guys like Jamie Jaquez and Podz could be available.

[exstatic]

Its so interesting this time of year to go back, read the old draft articles, and look at the evolution of picks and how much good fortune plays into the reputations, good or bad, of talent evaluators... Way back in 2007, Sam Presti really lucked out when his team got the #2 pick in the draft, and chose Durant after Portland took Oden. But according to most reports, Presti-- like most others that year-- had Oden #1 on his draft board. If Seattle had landed the #1 pick, people would be hammering Presti as the guy who picked Oden rather than the brilliant guy who took Durant. To judge scouting, you really have to get the full picture of moves over a good period of time, and eventually it's like rating good three point shooters vs mediocre three point shooters-- the difference is pretty subtle, like 38.5% vs 35.7%. Most people, when they debate scouting, tend to rely on one or two results as some sort of proof of or lack of insight, but that's generally not a fair way to judge it. My favorite discussion recently is the debate about productive "High Floor" guys vs less productive "High Ceiling" players, and the opinion that in the long run the high floor guys probably give a greater return. Golden State is the team many talk about, after taking Wiseman and Kuminga over guys like Haliburton and Franz Wagner. Really interesting perspective in my opinion. Of course, the Spurs just went all in on a 14% bet and won, and that has the potential to work out nicely for them. But the high floor approach is intriguing, and one of the reasons I like them having two early second round picks, where possibly guys like Jamie Jaquez and Podz could be available.

With #2 (Wiseman), they could have picked LaMelo. There rebuild could have nearly been done. Supposedly, Lacob overruled the GM on those two picks (Wiseman, Kuminga), because his son wanted those players.

[RC_Drunkford]

With #2 (Wiseman), they could have picked LaMelo. There rebuild could have nearly been done. Supposedly, Lacob overruled the GM on those two picks (Wiseman, Kuminga), because his son wanted those players.

love it since they were apparently light years ahead of everybody :lol

[R. DeMurre]

With #2 (Wiseman), they could have picked LaMelo. There rebuild could have nearly been done. Supposedly, Lacob overruled the GM on those two picks (Wiseman, Kuminga), because his son wanted those players.


Yeah, that's the rumor, although supposedly Myers was pretty high on Wiseman too. I doubt it will happen, but it'd be cool to hear the real story from Myers himself now that he's not with them anymore.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Jesus Christ.

Yes, my child.

[rjv]

love it since they were apparently light years ahead of everybody :lol

that's the moment that pushed me over the brink with the warriors and put me all in on my hatred for them. it was just the pinnacle of their arrogance.

[baseline bum]

I agree 100%. We have to move some of these picks no matter what we do at some point. Why not go after a potential star in scoot. Historically if the picks aren’t in the top 3 the chances of drafting a star go down significantly. Only assets not on the table are the Hawks picks IMO. Time to take the bat out and take a swing. If you miss we still have a solid core and assets to not be set back that much.

The Hawks picks are the assets you'd need to move into the top 3. You're not getting in there with the Chicago pick, the Toronto pick, and the Charlotte pick that could convert into two seconds. Not a chance. Personally I'd hold out to combine most of those picks to trade for a disgruntled star like an Anthony Davis or Kevin Durant situation. Maybe you'd pull Doncic if he gets sick of being a one man team. Or Embiid. Or you luck out an Giannis wants out if he thinks Milwaukee is on the down slope. Sadly no moves like that available this summer, as the biggest stars that could be had with that kind of offer now are Lillard who is too old for the Spurs timeline and Towns who isn't worth that kind of draft capital IMO.

[baseline bum]

With #2 (Wiseman), they could have picked LaMelo. There rebuild could have nearly been done. Supposedly, Lacob overruled the GM on those two picks (Wiseman, Kuminga), because his son wanted those players.

Wow do you have a link? That sounds like it would be a hilarious read if so.

[BacktoBasics]

The Hawks picks are the assets you'd need to move into the top 3. You're not getting in there with the Chicago pick, the Toronto pick, and the Charlotte pick that could convert into two seconds. Not a chance. Personally I'd hold out to combine most of those picks to trade for a disgruntled star like an Anthony Davis or Kevin Durant situation. Maybe you'd pull Doncic if he gets sick of being a one man team. Or Embiid. Or you luck out an Giannis wants out if he thinks Milwaukee is on the down slope. Sadly no moves like that available this summer, as the biggest stars that could be had with that kind of offer now are Lillard who is too old for the Spurs timeline and Towns who isn't worth that kind of draft capital IMO.

How often do we see disgruntled stars that demand a bag end up finding success on their new team? I know Davis asterisked a chip but for the most part disgruntled stars aren’t worth the bag they’re moved for.

[Kevin]

How often do we see disgruntled stars that demand a bag end up finding success on their new team? I know Davis asterisked a chip but for the most part disgruntled stars aren’t worth the bag they’re moved for.

Kawhi Leonard, KG and Ray Allen, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis as you mentioned.

Nets struck out on ton of stars over the years, Melo never did anything with the Knicks and the Hawks Murray trade already looks bad.

Trading away a bunch of assets for a star doesn't equate to success but it can and it does work.

[scott]

Its so interesting this time of year to go back, read the old draft articles, and look at the evolution of picks and how much good fortune plays into the reputations, good or bad, of talent evaluators... Way back in 2007, Sam Presti really lucked out when his team got the #2 pick in the draft, and chose Durant after Portland took Oden. But according to most reports, Presti-- like most others that year-- had Oden #1 on his draft board. If Seattle had landed the #1 pick, people would be hammering Presti as the guy who picked Oden rather than the brilliant guy who took Durant. To judge scouting, you really have to get the full picture of moves over a good period of time, and eventually it's like rating good three point shooters vs mediocre three point shooters-- the difference is pretty subtle, like 38.5% vs 35.7%. Most people, when they debate scouting, tend to rely on one or two results as some sort of proof of or lack of insight, but that's generally not a fair way to judge it. My favorite discussion recently is the debate about productive "High Floor" guys vs less productive "High Ceiling" players, and the opinion that in the long run the high floor guys probably give a greater return. Golden State is the team many talk about, after taking Wiseman and Kuminga over guys like Haliburton and Franz Wagner. Really interesting perspective in my opinion. Of course, the Spurs just went all in on a 14% bet and won, and that has the potential to work out nicely for them. But the high floor approach is intriguing, and one of the reasons I like them having two early second round picks, where possibly guys like Jamie Jaquez and Podz could be available.

I love this topic and think that high ceiling, low floor prospects are definitely overrated by teams and GMs.

This game up in a discussion about Anthony Black - who sounds to me every time someone describes him like Derrick White. Derrick White would have never been picked #8 (where Black is currently projected) because of his age, but he has outperformed the majority of #8 picks of the last 20 years. Age is correlated with ceiling and growth potential in the eyes of most, just as a function of how everyone is chasing franchise altering players like Giannis or Kawhi or Jokic. A GM will get lambasted for picking Derrick White with the #8 pick, but most of the time he would have been better off doing so.

Taking some high floor guys definitely pays off, I'm a fan.

[baseline bum]

How often do we see disgruntled stars that demand a bag end up finding success on their new team? I know Davis asterisked a chip but for the most part disgruntled stars aren’t worth the bag they’re moved for.

Davis winning a title is definitely one. Boston trading Al Jefferson and picks for Garnett won them a title and then they were a razor thin margin from a second. If it wasn't for Garnett getting hurt they would have probably repeated in 09. Shaq to Miami was another raging success with the 06 title and they were really close to a Finals berth in 05. Mute Cancer to Toronto too. Though Kareem to LA is of course the most famous one.

[baseline bum]

Kawhi Leonard, KG and Ray Allen, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis as you mentioned.

Nets struck out on ton of stars over the years, Melo never did anything with the Knicks and the Hawks Murray trade already looks bad.

Trading away a bunch of assets for a star doesn't equate to success but it can and it does work.

Shaq and Kareem too.

[BacktoBasics]

Kawhi Leonard, KG and Ray Allen, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis as you mentioned.

Nets struck out on ton of stars over the years, Melo never did anything with the Knicks and the Hawks Murray trade already looks bad.

Trading away a bunch of assets for a star doesn't equate to success but it can and it does work.Kawhi bailed on them. I think we have more trade failures than successes with disgruntled players. Especially involving any small market.

[RC_Drunkford]

that's the moment that pushed me over the brink with the warriors and put me all in on my hatred for them. it was just the pinnacle of their arrogance.

the only reason he said that was cause they were building the new arena so they could afford to pay luxury tax. But KD didn't stay and the CBA just changed :lol

Meanwhile the Spurs were playing 4D-chess, building the best practice facility in the league, collecting assets, stacking young talent and creating cap room while preparing for the #1 pick. So who's really ahead of everybody here? :lol

[TD 21]

How often do we see disgruntled stars that demand a bag end up finding success on their new team? I know Davis asterisked a chip but for the most part disgruntled stars aren’t worth the bag they’re moved for.

:lmao Spurs fans hatred for all things Lakers has always clouded the judgement on this. Somehow, the '99 championship is not an asterisk despite being different from a usual season, but the '20 championship is.

I already know you're going to respond with something like: at least '99 involved fans and travel. I get it. But the crux is they were different, not how.

The only asterisk championships are '17-'19.

[BacktoBasics]

:lmao Spurs fans hatred for all things Lakers has always clouded the judgement on this. Somehow, the '99 championship is not an asterisk despite being different from a usual season, but the '20 championship is.

I already know you're going to respond with something like: at least '99 involved fans and travel. I get it. But the crux is they were different, not how.

The only asterisk championships are '17-'19.
The only way Davis plays up to his potential is to be locked up in a bubble where he’s forced to concentrate on one thing.

[Mr. Body]

The 2000 bubble/Disney 'championship' was during the height of a pandemic when most players were completely checked out and worried about their families and their own safety. NBA shouldn't have even bothered, weak-ass whatever it was.

[Mr. Body]

Word is that Cason Wallace has pulled out of a workout with the Hawks tomorrow (15), suggesting he has a promise earlier. I think he might have only worked out for the Wizards and Raptors so far.

[talkspurs]

Davis winning a title is definitely one. Boston trading Al Jefferson and picks for Garnett won them a title and then they were a razor thin margin from a second. If it wasn't for Garnett getting hurt they would have probably repeated in 09. Shaq to Miami was another raging success with the 06 title and they were really close to a Finals berth in 05. Mute Cancer to Toronto too. Though Kareem to LA is of course the most famous one.

So my question would be is it worth trading a whole bunch of picks and young players to get a shot at winning 1 championship. You looks at teams that have been competitive the last few decades they have been built. Spurs, Milwaukee, GS. Lakers (koby/Shaqu), Phily, Miami, Boston. They have added some players but for the most part they were built. Milwaukee would be the team I think of that added the biggest player in holiday. He was thought of as a good player when he was traded for not a great player and I dont remember him being disgruntled but more NO wanting to move on.

[TD 21]

The only way Davis plays up to his potential is to be locked up in a bubble where he’s forced to concentrate on one thing.

That doesn't have anything to do with what I said, but it's a perfect example of media narrative usurping reality . . .


Probably the most inexplicably, incessantly criticized player extant. I don't get it for the life of me. More likeable than most of the divas today, often plays hurt and has tried to play through injuries, is willing to do the non glamor work and defer offensively (although the latter has become an issue) and generally raises his game in the playoffs.

Of course his precious ppg fluctuates on a team with four perimeter creators, naturally plummeting his usage rate. He's also not back to the basket based and any big man who isn't can't be the hub of an offense on a championship contender. That makes him more Robinson and Garnett than Olajuwon and Duncan. What a crime.

[baseline bum]

So my question would be is it worth trading a whole bunch of picks and young players to get a shot at winning 1 championship. You looks at teams that have been competitive the last few decades they have been built. Spurs, Milwaukee, GS. Lakers (koby/Shaqu), Phily, Miami, Boston. They have added some players but for the most part they were built. Milwaukee would be the team I think of that added the biggest player in holiday. He was thought of as a good player when he was traded for not a great player and I dont remember him being disgruntled but more NO wanting to move on.

Let's look at the Davis trade. Are you going to tell me the Lakers didn't win huge on that? Lonzo Ball was an ok player but not good enough for NO to want to pay him a large contract so they let him walk rather than get anchored to big money for a just kind of good talent. Josh Hart is nothing special. He was included in the trade for CJ McCollum but he wasn't the meat of it, the pick NOP offered Portland was. The #4 pick they got from the Lakers they turned into Jaxson Hayes and a bag of assorted crap. That 2023 unprotected pick swap won't be used since NOP's record is worse than the Lakers' this year. So in effect they traded Davis for Brandon Ingram, a bag of crap, and their choice of either the 2024 or 2025 Lakers first round pick.

Getting one title is enormous. Before the Spurs won the lottery for Tim you wouldn't have traded your left nut to get David some help to win a title? I would have. The Spurs front office is going to be under pressure to put a title contender around Wemby. Last thing they want is for Wemby to become a one man team and get sick of it and walk like we saw with LeBron in Cleveland. I'll trade four birds in the bush if the one in the hand is the right guy. Eg like KG was, like Davis was, like Shaq was, like Kareem was, like Kawhi was, etc.

[Big Empty]

Patience. This time next year theres going to be another freshman phenom thats gonna be available with one of our possible 3 first round picks that we’ll be excited about. I just cant see a rookie Wemby going off this year and the Spurs making the playoffs. We will be a lottery team again with our own 8/9th pick and all the others. By the time Wemby is coming to the end of his rookie contract we’d have no excuse why we havnt surrounded him with a Robin with all these picks. 2024 NBA Draft Picks

Spurs First-Round Pick
Hornets First-Round Pick (Lottery Protected)
Raptors First-Round Pick (Top-Six Protected)
Lakers Second-Round Pick
Pelicans Second-Round Pick

[cd98]

The 2000 bubble/Disney 'championship' was during the height of a pandemic when most players were completely checked out and worried about their families and their own safety. NBA shouldn't have even bothered, weak-ass whatever it was.

Yes, I've always felt this way. I mean, I think it is also that the games were played without any travel, without playing on an opposing team's court with fans, and without the same pressure that is usually there in the playoffs. I considered that the rec league championship. It mirrored pick up games. I just don't think the pressure was there like it would have been had there been a season like every other.

[cd98]

Patience. This time next year theres going to be another freshman phenom thats gonna be available with one of our possible 3 first round picks that we’ll be excited about. I just cant see a rookie Wemby going off this year and the Spurs making the playoffs. We will be a lottery team again with our own 8/9th pick and all the others. By the time Wemby is coming to the end of his rookie contract we’d have no excuse why we havnt surrounded him with a Robin with all these picks. 2024 NBA Draft Picks



Spurs First-Round Pick
Hornets First-Round Pick (Lottery Protected)
Raptors First-Round Pick (Top-Six Protected)
Lakers Second-Round Pick
Pelicans Second-Round Pick



I think the Spurs have one year to assess what they got. It could be that Vassell or Sochan or even maybe Johnson (I feel like he will be traded) turn out to be legit all star players. Give them a season, see how good Wemby is, and then if it looks like he's special, look for another superstar with draft capital. It would need to be a superstar under 30. Preferably someone that is 25-26 age range. But relying on hitting every pick in the draft is too risky. And while I think the Spurs are one of the best at developing the talent they have, it takes a lot of time to develop (often 3 years), and even if you hit, you will eventually need to afford all those good players with the salary cap. Better to trade those assets and get a young star, if possible. Who knows if one will become available? Or if they want to come to SA, but next year is the year to decide whether to chip in the assets for another player or not.

But I agree, anyone over 30 is not on the Spurs timeline and they should not trade their assets for someone like that.

[exstatic]

Yes, I've always felt this way. I mean, I think it is also that the games were played without any travel, without playing on an opposing team's court with fans, and without the same pressure that is usually there in the playoffs. I considered that the rec league championship. It mirrored pick up games. I just don't think the pressure was there like it would have been had there been a season like every other.

Not to mention that two guys that have a history of breaking down late in the season both got a LONG break right in the middle of the season, like 5-6 months to heal up and renew.

[Extra Stout]

What superstar fits those criteria other than Luka Doncic? And it is realistic to think he’s going to force his way out of Dallas?

[exstatic]

What superstar fits those criteria other than Luka Doncic? And it is realistic to think he’s going to force his way out of Dallas?

He can't be too happy with the way things are going.

[Ariel]

Patience. This time next year theres going to be another freshman phenom thats gonna be available with one of our possible 3 first round picks that we’ll be excited about. I just cant see a rookie Wemby going off this year and the Spurs making the playoffs. We will be a lottery team again with our own 8/9th pick and all the others. By the time Wemby is coming to the end of his rookie contract we’d have no excuse why we havnt surrounded him with a Robin with all these picks. 2024 NBA Draft Picks



Spurs First-Round Pick
Hornets First-Round Pick (Lottery Protected)
Raptors First-Round Pick (Top-Six Protected)
Lakers Second-Round Pick
Pelicans Second-Round Pick


It's NOLA/Chicago 2nd (best one), and you forgot the Spurs own '24 2nd (traded with 31-54 protection, meaning it won't convey unless Spurs are a top 6 record overall).
That makes 3 2nd rounders next draft, plus we have 2 2nds now and 2/3 firsts next year. We can't have that many rookies, something's got to give and it better be soon or else their value will plummet.
Brooklyn has 2 firsts in this draft (21 + 22) and no picks next year either in the first or second round. One of those picks could well be a target.
Possible offers:
#33 + Lakers '24 2nd + best of NOLA/Chicago '24 2nd + worst of Chicago/Toronto '25 2nd
or (less ideally)
Charlotte's '24 first (may not convey but if it does it'll be better) + #44 + worst 2 of Lakers/NOLA/Chicago '24.
That'd help balance the picks incoming, and better the quality. Brooklyn likely wouldn't use all those 2nds, but flip them in future deals. Something like that could work IMO.

[rascal]

It's NOLA/Chicago 2nd (best one), and you forgot the Spurs own '24 2nd (traded with 31-54 protection, meaning it won't convey unless Spurs are a top 6 record overall).
That makes 3 2nd rounders next draft, plus we have 2 2nds now and 2/3 firsts next year. We can't have that many rookies, something's got to give and it better be soon or else their value will plummet.
Brooklyn has 2 firsts in this draft (21 + 22) and no picks next year either in the first or second round. One of those picks could well be a target.
Possible offers:
#33 + Lakers '24 2nd + best of NOLA/Chicago '24 2nd + worst of Chicago/Toronto '25 2nd
or (less ideally)
Charlotte's '24 first (may not convey but if it does it'll be better) + #44 + worst 2 of Lakers/NOLA/Chicago '24.
That'd help balance the picks incoming, and better the quality. Brooklyn likely wouldn't use all those 2nds, but flip them in future deals. Something like that could work IMO.

Basically try getting higher draft picks and move quantity for quality.

[Extra Stout]

If the Spurs already see someone in the 2023 draft they think scores out high enough to be a second star, they should be aggressive with their draft assets and go get him if possible. Scoot probably is not possible.

If all they see are potential solid role players, then I think it makes more sense to hold onto those assets and be patient. Those kinds of players will continue to be available.

The exception would be to package the Charlotte pick with some second-rounded to move up into the 20’s in this draft, because that Charlotte pick is only 50/50 to convey as a FRP anyway.

The Spurs need to find one or two more All-Star-caliber players to join Wembanyama by the end of his first contract. That should take priority over optimizing the 2023-24 team.

[rascal]

If the Spurs already see someone in the 2023 draft they think scores out high enough to be a second star, they should be aggressive with their draft assets and go get him if possible. Scoot probably is not possible.

If all they see are potential solid role players, then I think it makes more sense to hold onto those assets and be patient. Those kinds of players will continue to be available.

The exception would be to package the Charlotte pick with some second-rounded to move up into the 20’s in this draft, because that Charlotte pick is only 50/50 to convey as a FRP anyway.

The Spurs need to find one or two more All-Star-caliber players to join Wembanyama by the end of his first contract. That should take priority over optimizing the 2023-24 team.

Spurs need to be proactive and start the process of building around their franchise player and if they see a player in this draft they like combine some of the draft picks and go for him.

Many of their future draft picks, with the exception of maybe Atlanta's unprotected, will be no better quality players as they already have on the current roster because they will fall outside the lottery.

[Mr. Body]

For me, this draft:

- Rules at the number 1 pick
- Is okay at the number 2 pick
- Is really iffy from picks 3 to about 7
- Is potentially okay to disappointing from picks 8 to about 12
- Could have a lot of bargains/steals from picks 13 to 19 or so
- Gets more slippery and long-term from picks 20 to 30
- Early second round there may be some great picks who have lasted the FR

All this depends on how things actually go and I factor in the nominal quality of the pick vs. the players who will be picked there. Basically, Wemby rules, Scoot is okay, then Brandon Miller, the Thompsons, Cam, and even Jarace and Hendricks are going to be picked higher than their nominal draft slot. They're all overrated, even if I like some of them.

Then will come guards (maybe) for Washington and Utah and they may reach. Dallas might wind up with Dick or Lively or something. Dick goes at 11 if he drops.

Then... I see a lot of steals. Potentially pick after pick in the late lottery into the teens and maybe first 20 or 21 will be guys who sort of overshoot their draft spots. Will they all pan out? No, of course not. Will they be stars? Probably not, but you have potentially great role-players, starters, and decent shots at more. Compared to where you're getting them, there's going to be a lot of good picks.

How deep the steals go depends on if a team does something stupid like reach for Noah Clowney types, which always happens.

Then 20-30 will be more projects like Rayan Rupert and Bobi Klintman and Maxwell Lewis. Also, higher floor, lower ceiling guys like Kris Murray and Colby Jones, and then Brandin Podziemski in there somewhere.

tl;dr: I think the middle part of this year's first round has more value than usual middle first rounds.

[rascal]

For me, this draft:

- Rules at the number 1 pick
- Is okay at the number 2 pick
- Is really iffy from picks 3 to about 7
- Is potentially okay to disappointing from picks 8 to about 12
- Could have a lot of bargains/steals from picks 13 to 19 or so
- Gets more slippery and long-term from picks 20 to 30
- Early second round there may be some great picks who have lasted the FR

All this depends on how things actually go and I factor in the nominal quality of the pick vs. the players who will be picked there. Basically, Wemby rules, Scoot is okay, then Brandon Miller, the Thompsons, Cam, and even Jarace and Hendricks are going to be picked higher than their nominal draft slot. They're all overrated, even if I like some of them.

Then will come guards (maybe) for Washington and Utah and they may reach. Dallas might wind up with Dick or Lively or something. Dick goes at 11 if he drops.

Then... I see a lot of steals. Potentially pick after pick in the late lottery into the teens and maybe first 20 or 21 will be guys who sort of overshoot their draft spots. Will they all pan out? No, of course not. Will they be stars? Probably not, but you have potentially great role-players, starters, and decent shots at more. Compared to where you're getting them, there's going to be a lot of good picks.

How deep the steals go depends on if a team does something stupid like reach for Noah Clowney types, which always happens.

Then 20-30 will be more projects like Rayan Rupert and Bobi Klintman and Maxwell Lewis. Also, higher floor, lower ceiling guys like Kris Murray and Colby Jones, and then Brandin Podziemski in there somewhere.

tl;dr: I think the middle part of this year's first round has more value than usual middle first rounds.

I agree

If the Spurs can't put a package together to land Scoot which is highly unlikely as they would need a third team(Spurs, Toronto, Portland/Charlotte), then they should target those middle first round picks.

Those mid teen picks are where value can be found at a reasonable cost.

[Extra Stout]

Spurs need to be proactive and start the process of building around their franchise player and if they see a player in this draft they like combine some of the draft picks and go for him.

Many of their future draft picks, with the exception of maybe Atlanta's unprotected, will be no better quality players as they already have on the current roster because they will fall outside the lottery.
Yeah, while it’s not impossible to find stars outside the lottery, the probability is low, and the picks in the 20’s have to be home run swings a la Blake Wesley.

I’m confident that Brian Wright understands how to maximize his odds.

I don’t understand the double-mindedness of the high-level understanding that this roster is not good enough to contend as-is together with attachment to each individual player. I do not at all agree that the Spurs would have been good enough to make the play-in had they not tried so hard to tank. I think the tanking cost fewer than 10 wins.

[Mr. Body]

The team already has All-Star capable players on the team. I could identify possibilities if necessary.

Most of the players on the team are extremely young. There's this weird sense that they won't improve and are stuck who they are right now. As if, say, we haven't had very good players develop in the past. Oh, say, a Tony Parker or Kawhi Leonard. No one would have pegged Dejounte Murray as an All-Star when he was drafted.

It's not necessary to have multiple All-Stars to win a Championship, much less go deep in the playoffs. The days of super teams are over. Milwaukee had one All-Star. Denver has one All-Star. Tony and Manu barely ever made the All-Star team. These fixations are really weird.

[Extra Stout]

I think you need to handicap the likelihood that a Jeremy Sochan or Devin Vassell or Blake Wesley will each become an All-Star or close to it. You can’t say that it’s possible therefore Brian Wright can just sit on his hands.

[Mr. Body]

I think you need to handicap the likelihood that a Jeremy Sochan or Devin Vassell or Blake Wesley will each become an All-Star or close to it.

Why? I think Sochan or Vassell could easily become All-Stars.

[Extra Stout]

And it’s just blatant disingenuous misrepresentative cherry-picking to claim that Khris Middleton or Jamal Murray are not All-Star-caliber players.

[Mr. Body]

And it’s just blatant disingenuous misrepresentative cherry-picking to claim that Khris Middleton or Jamal Murray are not All-Star-caliber players.

I mean, what the hell are we even talking about? You want to dismiss the talented young players we have and then say that All-Star is some nebulous category? I'm not even sure what the point is here.

[Extra Stout]

Why? I think Sochan or Vassell could easily become All-Stars.
It’s not a sure thing. To throw numbers out there, maybe it’s 40% for Sochan, 20% for Vassell, and 10% for Wesley, just for arguments’ sake. That leaves a 44% chance that there’s nobody on the roster who will get there. So if you’re Brian Wright, you still need to be swinging.

[exstatic]

And it’s just blatant disingenuous misrepresentative cherry-picking to claim that Khris Middleton or Jamal Murray are not All-Star-caliber players.

Now you're getting into a gray area by using the word 'caliber'. What does that even mean? You're either an All Star, elected by the fans, or named as a reserve or injury replacement, or you're not.

[Extra Stout]

Now you're getting into a gray area by using the word 'caliber'. What does that even mean? You're either an All Star, elected by the fans, or named as a reserve or injury replacement, or you're not.
I think the concept is clear and you’re just migrating into sophistry.

[exstatic]

I think the concept is clear and you’re just migrating into sophistry.

If it's so clear, then give me the definition of "All Star caliber NBA player".

[Ariel]

And it’s just blatant disingenuous misrepresentative cherry-picking to claim that Khris Middleton or Jamal Murray are not All-Star-caliber players.
100%. Khris Middleton is a 3 time all star (2019, 2020 and 2022) and Jrue Holiday is a 2 time all star caliber player. Jamal Murray is coming off a very long injury and just now is getting back from his former self after the bubble run, but there's no doubt he's an all star (I'd say all NBA) caliber player. Manu played the regular season at one pace and the post season at another, but playoff Manu was all NBA. Bottom line, you need at the very least 2 if not 3 such players to win a championship, let alone multiple ones. You can do without the regular season stat padding for individual accolades, but at the end of the day if you don't have those guys when it counts, you're toast.

[Ariel]

Now you're getting into a gray area by using the word 'caliber'. What does that even mean? You're either an All Star, elected by the fans, or named as a reserve or injury replacement, or you're not.
It means that if picking a player for a given series, you're at least at the level of someone who made those teams at your position. Joe Johnson was a 7 time all star. Is Jamal Murray worse than him in a 7 game series? I think not. Same for Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Manu. They didn't put up spectacular regular season stats, but when the playoffs start, they move up a gear.

[cd98]

What superstar fits those criteria other than Luka Doncic? And it is realistic to think he’s going to force his way out of Dallas?

I think it is absolutely possible and, in fact, likely that Doncic wants out of Dallas in the future. Dallas is botching their efforts to surround him with winning talent. They screwed up Brunson. They traded away their best defenders to get Irving, who will likely leave them in the offseason or Dallas will overpay him to stay and he never looked like he played well with Doncic. They fired the GM he wanted and I think Jason Kidd is respected by players, but I don't think he coaches good enough.

Dallas just doesn't have a lot of avenues to rebuild and they can't get free agents to go to Dallas. Plus, Doncic is not like other Euros who have more loyalty to the teams that draft them, even if they are in frigid states. Doncic reminds me more of US players, in both good and bad ways. I could totally see him wanting out, I just don't know if he'd want a trade to S.A. And I highly doubt Dallas would trade him to S.A. Cuban would not stand for that.

[rascal]

Why? I think Sochan or Vassell could easily become All-Stars.

I don't

They don't possess exceptional skills in shooting or quickness or athleticism that all stars have.

I see both as marginal average players, non go to all star caliber players.

Vassell has already been in the league 3 years so I don't see much more improvement with him.

Sochan is still young but still doesn't look like he has the skillset to be a high volume go to scorer.
Sochan is highly overrated in here which is not surprising since it is a Spurs site.

[spurraider21]

I don't

They don't possess exceptional skills in shooting or quickness or athleticism.

I see both as marginal average players, non go to all star caliber players.

Vassell has already been in the league 3 years so I don't see much more improvement with him.

Sochan is still young but still doesn't look like he has the skillset to be a high volume go to scorer.
Sochan is highly overrated in here which is not surprising since it is a Spurs site.
vassell showed a lot of improvement in year 3, at least offensively, so i'm not sure we see eye to eye there. he increased his volume without sacrificing any efficiency. he has clearly gotten stronger which has helped him become a better iso scorer in the midrange. even getting his assists up to 3.6 per game is pretty good for a wing in his first year of having notable on-ball duties (previously was the dejounte/derozan show in his time in the nba). he's just about to turn 23.

his season 2 and season 3 production can be compared to khris middleton, who was an older player than him (was 24 in year 3 whereas vassell was 22).

middleton didnt make his first all star team until he was 27 years old, which for vassell would be the 2027-2028 season. doenst really look like his game is capped either. his ball handling has gotten better, but still not good enough for him to be able to really draw fouls and get to the line. thats an easy way for him to increase his scoring efficiency, as he is a good FT shooter. his defense also tailed off last year, and we know he can be better there.

[ambchang]

I don't

They don't possess exceptional skills in shooting or quickness or athleticism that all stars have.

I see both as marginal average players, non go to all star caliber players.

Vassell has already been in the league 3 years so I don't see much more improvement with him.

Sochan is still young but still doesn't look like he has the skillset to be a high volume go to scorer.
Sochan is highly overrated in here which is not surprising since it is a Spurs site.

I mean, at this point it is becoming quite clear you are just trying to uphold your persona. A year when players like Jokic and Butler led their respective teams to the finals, in an age when a guy like Doncic is undoubtedly one of the top 5 players in the league, you are talking about exceptional skills in shooting, quickness or athleticism being prerequisites to being all stars?

This year, the following players made the All-NBA teams - Doncic, Tatum, Jokic, Butler, Sabonis, and Randle.

I am not even understanding your obsession with crazy athletes. It was funny at first, at some point it just gets annoying.

[TD 21]

I don't

They don't possess exceptional skills in shooting or quickness or athleticism that all stars have.

I see both as marginal average players, non go to all star caliber players.

Vassell has already been in the league 3 years so I don't see much more improvement with him.

Sochan is still young but still doesn't look like he has the skillset to be a high volume go to scorer.
Sochan is highly overrated in here which is not surprising since it is a Spurs site.

If Wembanyama hits his projected ceiling of best player in the league, then the Nuggets become a comparable if they can find a second best player the caliber of Murray (who granted has went from top starter to All-NBA his past two playoffs), because Vassell (Porter Jr.) and Sochan (Gordon) should suffice as third and fourth best players in that scenario.

[BackHome]

If Wemby can stay healthy then our rebuild will be done in two or three years - I think we just need a Good dependable PG who can hit open shots, throw lobs, hit cutting players, take it to the rim, be a decent three point shooter, and a good defender. A Big Athletic Center who can move his feet and has a good mid range game, rebound, and block shots. A big bonus would be a top 10 SF pick hopefully from Atlanta, Chicago - Someone who has it all length, IQ, offense, and defense, and character..

What I want the Spurs to do is double down on defensive players please no more Mills, or Forbes - offensive player who suck on defense

[JPB]

I think it is absolutely possible and, in fact, likely that Doncic wants out of Dallas in the future. Dallas is botching their efforts to surround him with winning talent. They screwed up Brunson. They traded away their best defenders to get Irving, who will likely leave them in the offseason or Dallas will overpay him to stay and he never looked like he played well with Doncic. They fired the GM he wanted and I think Jason Kidd is respected by players, but I don't think he coaches good enough.

Dallas just doesn't have a lot of avenues to rebuild and they can't get free agents to go to Dallas. Plus, Doncic is not like other Euros who have more loyalty to the teams that draft them, even if they are in frigid states. Doncic reminds me more of US players, in both good and bad ways. I could totally see him wanting out, I just don't know if he'd want a trade to S.A. And I highly doubt Dallas would trade him to S.A. Cuban would not stand for that.

I believe you underestimate the power a star like Doncic has with one year left on his contract. If Luka says he wants to go to SA, Cuban won't have any choice. All Luka will have to do (his agent actually) is telling everyone he won't renew with anyone else than SA and no one will trade for him. Cuban won't keep a disgruntled star in his team who will leave for nothing one year later...He'll trade him to SA for a ransom.

[Ariel]

Let's look at the Davis trade. Are you going to tell me the Lakers didn't win huge on that? Lonzo Ball was an ok player but not good enough for NO to want to pay him a large contract so they let him walk rather than get anchored to big money for a just kind of good talent. Josh Hart is nothing special. He was included in the trade for CJ McCollum but he wasn't the meat of it, the pick NOP offered Portland was. The #4 pick they got from the Lakers they turned into Jaxson Hayes and a bag of assorted crap. That 2023 unprotected pick swap won't be used since NOP's record is worse than the Lakers' this year. So in effect they traded Davis for Brandon Ingram, a bag of crap, and their choice of either the 2024 or 2025 Lakers first round pick.
That trade was excellent for New Orleans, Anthony Davis would shortly be gone regardless, and they managed a shitload of assets: Ingram (best player in the franchise), Lonzo (was doing great until his career was derailed by injuries), Josh Hart (useful role player), a no. 4 pick in 2019, a no. 8 pick in 2022, an unprotected pick in 2024 (likely mid teens), and a '23 swap that would have given them a good pick if they didn't suck. Whether they used those assets wisely is another discussion, but the trade in itself was great and I wouldn't call it a huge win for the Lakers even if a championship came out of it (and several years of misery).

[Ariel]

I believe you underestimate the power a star like Doncic has with one year left on his contract. If Luka says he wants to go to SA, Cuban won't have any choice. All Luka will have to do (his agent actually) is telling everyone he won't renew with anyone else than SA and no one will trade for him. Cuban won't keep a disgruntled star in his team who will leave for nothing one year later...He'll trade him to SA for a ransom.
If the Spurs don't have the cap room by then (3 years from now, we won't), then Dallas absolutely holds a lot of leverage because we couldn't get a hold of him without Dallas trading him to us, which may not be enough to stop a trade from happening, but certainly to suck you dry of promising youth and assets.

[baseline bum]

That trade was excellent for New Orleans, Anthony Davis would shortly be gone regardless, and they managed a shitload of assets: Ingram (best player in the franchise), Lonzo (was doing great until his career was derailed by injuries), Josh Hart (useful role player), a no. 4 pick in 2019, a no. 8 pick in 2022, an unprotected pick in 2024 (likely mid teens), and a '23 swap that would have given them a good pick if they didn't suck. Whether they used those assets wisely is another discussion, but the trade in itself was great and I wouldn't call it a huge win for the Lakers even if a championship came out of it (and several years of misery).

I think you're hugely underrating how much a title means and how hard it is to win one. A borderline All-Star in Ingram, three picks (that the Lakers would blow anyways), and change isn't worth a title to you? They weren't winning a title with Ingram instead of Davis, he puts up empty numbers and isn't anywhere near the defender Davis is.

[Ariel]

I think you're hugely underrating how much a title means and how hard it is to win one. A borderline All-Star in Ingram, three picks (that the Lakers would blow anyways), and change isn't worth a title to you? They weren't winning a title with Ingram instead of Davis, he puts up empty numbers and isn't anywhere near the defender Davis is.
There's two sides to that deal, I think New Orleans extracted every drop of value they possibly could when they didn't seem to have that much leverage, even if they managed to screw it up somewhat later. As far as the Lakers are concerned, I do acknowledge that a championship is a huge milestone and for most franchises would be worth it, but I'd also point out that the circumstances of that title were very peculiar, and I don't think they necessarily would have won in a regular year. In hindsight you're right, but honestly I prefer building a contender organically and guaranteeing many years of deep playoff runs (in the hopes of eventually making it) over going the blockbuster route which ends up in disaster 9 times of 10, and even when it doesn't it comes at a very high cost (which the Lakers have been paying ever since).

[talkspurs]

Let's look at the Davis trade. Are you going to tell me the Lakers didn't win huge on that? Lonzo Ball was an ok player but not good enough for NO to want to pay him a large contract so they let him walk rather than get anchored to big money for a just kind of good talent. Josh Hart is nothing special. He was included in the trade for CJ McCollum but he wasn't the meat of it, the pick NOP offered Portland was. The #4 pick they got from the Lakers they turned into Jaxson Hayes and a bag of assorted crap. That 2023 unprotected pick swap won't be used since NOP's record is worse than the Lakers' this year. So in effect they traded Davis for Brandon Ingram, a bag of crap, and their choice of either the 2024 or 2025 Lakers first round pick.

Getting one title is enormous. Before the Spurs won the lottery for Tim you wouldn't have traded your left nut to get David some help to win a title? I would have. The Spurs front office is going to be under pressure to put a title contender around Wemby. Last thing they want is for Wemby to become a one man team and get sick of it and walk like we saw with LeBron in Cleveland. I'll trade four birds in the bush if the one in the hand is the right guy. Eg like KG was, like Davis was, like Shaq was, like Kareem was, like Kawhi was, etc.

You find one of the few examples that worked and worked only because of covid. How many times have teams tried this failed and ended up in a much worse situation. Brooklyn, Phoenix, Houston, clippers.

You look at the good teams that are not leverged and have been close several times even if not winning. Miwaukee, Denver, Phily, Boston, GS.
You look at teams that have won multiple Spurs, lakers, GS. These for the most part have been built teams not trading for stars. So yes I would rather build the team then go all in trying to win for 1 year.

The disgruntled star does not all of a sudden become a happy player. Look at how many times Labron, KD, KI, CP3, Paul George have moved throughout their careers. They are happy for a some time but eventually become unhappy and want what they want. Build a team together and let them grow together. That is how you win multile championships. Just like I see so many people wanting named players not good players.

[baseline bum]

You find one of the few examples that worked and worked only because of covid. How many times have teams tried this failed and ended up in a much worse situation. Brooklyn, Phoenix, Houston, clippers.

You look at the good teams that are not leverged and have been close several times even if not winning. Miwaukee, Denver, Phily, Boston, GS.
You look at teams that have won multiple Spurs, lakers, GS. These for the most part have been built teams not trading for stars. So yes I would rather build the team then go all in trying to win for 1 year.

The disgruntled star does not all of a sudden become a happy player. Look at how many times Labron, KD, KI, CP3, Paul George have moved throughout their careers. They are happy for a some time but eventually become unhappy and want what they want. Build a team together and let them grow together. That is how you win multile championships. Just like I see so many people wanting named players not good players.

Meh that's how Boston won a title and made another Finals. It's how Miami won one. It's how Toronto won one. It's how LA won five. I'm not trading four picks for Rudy Gobert but if Doncic, Giannis, someone like that becomes available yeah dump your pics to get them.

[scott]

The Pels definitely did better getting value for AD than we did for Neph

[dbestpro]

I think the trade that makes the most sense is Johnson to Orlando for a first with other assets to move to the 6th pick or straight up for their later pick.

[BacktoBasics]

I think the trade that makes the most sense is Johnson to Orlando for a first with other assets to move to the 6th pick or straight up for their later pick.

We need Keldon and Vassell to carry the majority of the offensive load for at least Wembys first year. A cohesive team and limited responsibilities are exactly how you break in your franchise player.

Dumping Keldon for an unknown is a bad idea at this point. There is no guarantee that you’ll get a player as good as Keldon at 6 or later anyway. You’d also spend a couple years finding that out.

I completely get moving Keldon for a shot at Scoot but I don’t think it’s a smart move to trade his production for a mid to late lottery on the hope you got something that can develop into more production later.

The time to make a trade like that is Wembys 2nd or 3rd year.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

We need Keldon and Vassell to carry the majority of the offensive load for at least Wembys first year. A cohesive team and limited responsibilities are exactly how you break in your franchise player.

Dumping Keldon for an unknown is a bad idea at this point. There is no guarantee that you’ll get a player as good as Keldon at 6 or later anyway. You’d also spend a couple years finding that out.


I agree with this. I'd assess what we have with those two and the new lineup before making changes with either player. Keldon's on a good deal, and hopefully we'll get Devin on a decent contract for both him and the Spurs. I think both guys are going to elevate their games with Wemby out there.

Tim still deferred to the Admiral his first year or so in the league, and I'd expect Wemby to need at least a couple of years without the weight of being "the man" on his shoulders while he acclimates to rigors of the NBA.

[aissagholi7981]

Keldon isn't going anywhere. He's all over the Spurs media at all these different events. Nobody is going anywhere.

[exstatic]

Keldon isn't going anywhere. He's all over the Spurs media at all these different events. Nobody is going anywhere.

Not likely this summer, anyway.

[aissagholi7981]

Not likely this summer, anyway.

Still don't see it next year either. How many times have the spurs traded a VERY good locker room guy on an amazing contract. Just doesn't happen. We're probably going to trade up and draft a PG and roll with it-

[Mr. Body]

I really do think Keldon will be moved eventually. There's just no good fit between him and Sochan on the starting unit. No, Sochan cannot play point guard. The other solution is Wmby at central big and Sochan as PF, but we'll see.

I'd trade Johnson if I could get Anthony Black this draft, otherwise keep.

[Extra Stout]

Still don't see it next year either. How many times have the spurs traded a VERY good locker room guy on an amazing contract. Just doesn't happen. We're probably going to trade up and draft a PG and roll with it-
Derrick White

[spurs10]

Well we'll know soon if they pulled the trigger on moving up or not. If not, a 33 pick is it and that won't be for a Wemby running mate. Starting to believe we will roll with Wemby, Vassell, KJ, Sochan, and ZC.

[exstatic]

Still don't see it next year either. How many times have the spurs traded a VERY good locker room guy on an amazing contract. Just doesn't happen. We're probably going to trade up and draft a PG and roll with it-

Derrick White. 18 months ago.

[Mr. Body]

Well we'll know soon if they pulled the trigger on moving up or not. If not, a 33 pick is it and that won't be for a Wemby running mate. Starting to believe we will roll with Wemby, Vassell, KJ, Sochan, and ZC.

People, we need a point guard. Sochan is not going to be defending point guards.

[Degoat]

I honestly think we roll with Tre and Graham and hope that Wesley makes a giant leap.

[stnick2261]

Derrick White. 18 months ago.

I saw an article recently that said the Spurs weren't shopping White, but Boston really wanted him and were persistently trying to trade for him. The Spurs reluctantly agreed because he'd be going to a good place. I don't think we trade Johnson unless another (good) team begs for him.

[scott]

Still don't see it next year either. How many times have the spurs traded a VERY good locker room guy on an amazing contract. Just doesn't happen. We're probably going to trade up and draft a PG and roll with it-

Last year, Derrick White?

edit: sorry, I now see that several others beat me to this very obvious punch

[Ariel]

I saw an article recently that said the Spurs weren't shopping White, but Boston really wanted him and were persistently trying to trade for him. The Spurs reluctantly agreed because he'd be going to a good place. I don't think we trade Johnson unless another (good) team begs for him.
So all it takes for the Spurs to trade a core piece is some good team asking long enough? :lol The Spurs are an NBA team, not a charitable organization. They do consider the player's interest, but to think they'd be willing to make any move that doesn't suit their own interest is disingenuous. Derrick & Dejounte weren't enough to contend OR to land a high pick, that's why they're gone. There was no Wemby with them on board, they're just casualties of a bigger picture.

[stnick2261]

So all it takes for the Spurs to trade a core piece is some good team asking long enough? :lol The Spurs are an NBA team, not a charitable organization. They do consider the player's interest, but to think they'd be willing to make any move that doesn't suit their own interest is disingenuous. Derrick & Dejounte weren't enough to contend OR to land a high pick, that's why they're gone. There was no Wemby with them on board, they're just casualties of a bigger picture.

Obviously Boston increased their offer until it was in the Spurs best interest. I don't see how that is hard to understand. The trade was good for all parties (Spurs, Boston and White), but it probably doesn't happen if Boston was a crappy team (unless they drastically increased the offer)

[BacktoBasics]

I honestly think we roll with Tre and Graham and hope that Wesley makes a giant leap.

This is how you GM in real life. So many here want to GM like it’s a video game. Where you’re constantly moving good assets with no regard to team dynamics.

[stnick2261]

So all it takes for the Spurs to trade a core piece is some good team asking long enough? :lol The Spurs are an NBA team, not a charitable organization. They do consider the player's interest, but to think they'd be willing to make any move that doesn't suit their own interest is disingenuous. Derrick & Dejounte weren't enough to contend OR to land a high pick, that's why they're gone. There was no Wemby with them on board, they're just casualties of a bigger picture.

Found the quote and article


As the Feb. 9 trade deadline approached, the Celtics zeroed in on White — “Boston was desperate to find a guy like him,” one Western Conference executive said — but the Spurs, league sources said, had no interest in moving him. White had become beloved in the organization, a key part of its culture. When White held his wedding in Colorado, several members of the Spurs’ front office attended and White thanked his coaches for helping develop him. “Derrick was a guy that everybody in the league wanted,” the Western Conference executive said. “The Celtics were just persistent.” Boston came in heavy, offering Romeo Langford and Josh Richardson, a first-round pick in the 2022 draft and a 2028 first-round pick swap. It was the sort of offer the Spurs couldn’t refuse, but, sources said, the Spurs also wanted to ensure they were sending White to a good situation, to a team that was headed in the right direction.
19 hours ago – via Baxter Holmes @ ESPN

[SpursFan86]

I honestly think we roll with Tre and Graham and hope that Wesley makes a giant leap.

I’m in the same boat. As exciting as it’d be to see us trade into the early/mid 1st round I really don’t think it’s that likely.

[spurs10]

People, we need a point guard. Sochan is not going to be defending point guards. Yeah you're right. Meant to include Tre, but agree he's be a better back-up. Yes we need a PG.

[mo7888]

Well we'll know soon if they pulled the trigger on moving up or not. If not, a 33 pick is it and that won't be for a Wemby running mate. Starting to believe we will roll with Wemby, Vassell, KJ, Sochan, and ZC.

I really don't expect any moves from our side until draft night (if we even make any trades)..

[The Truth #6]

I think it’s smart to consolidate picks to get an actual high level player. However, I’m not sure if this is the time to do it, and if we get one chance to make a big move arguably, then I’m not sure how great I feel about putting all the chips on the table before we even see Victor play. Specifically, I would imagine Keldon would be part of the trade with a draft pick or two to move up, but we aren’t sure yet if Victor plays really well next to Keldon, I mean, it’s not like Keldon is some bad egg we have to get rid of immediately. Historically, I think the spurs have been too cautious, but this is one time where I’m sort of leaning that way.

[stnick2261]

I doubt we see any Spurs trades until draft night because they won't know who is still available at which picks.

For instance, let's say Timvp's Big Board 2.0 is exactly what the Spurs have going into the draft. If Bilal Coulibaly had a guarantee of being picked 14 and the Spurs had a chance to trade up to 13... they wouldn't pick him because they'd still have 2 players higher on their draft board.

I can see them going for a trade if someone on their board drops 10 spots (or so) past what they think that player is worth. So they are trading less for a lower draft slot for a player they feel is more valuable. And they won't know that until it is actually happening.

[Ariel]

Obviously Boston increased their offer until it was in the Spurs best interest. I don't see how that is hard to understand. The trade was good for all parties (Spurs, Boston and White), but it probably doesn't happen if Boston was a crappy team (unless they drastically increased the offer)
I had already read that article. You stated that "the Spurs reluctantly agreed because he'd be going to a good place", and that's a disingenuous statement. The Spurs knew White had value, and wouldn't let him go until their price was met. Of course they were careful not to throw him into a dumpster fire, mainly because that would signal the end of team friendly deals, and that's a higher priority than a marginally better return. But your portrayal of the situation makes it seem that they agreed to a deal that they didn't like ("reluctantly") because of the "good" destination, when the truth is more in line with they'd pass on deals they like because of the destination. Self interest comes first, in spite of whatever propaganda might have you believe. And that's JUST FINE.

[Ariel]

To me, the most important is that: Spurs do not need to do a trade.

They will talk to other teams because they have some trading assets and they could use another good rookie but they won't force the issue. If teams are asking for too much to trade their pick, Spurs will just do nothing and be fine with that.

It's a nice place to be for Spurs' FO.
Partially true. The Spurs have 3 picks this year (#1, #33, #44) AND 5/6 PICKS NEXT YEAR (own 1st, Toronto 1st -prot. 6-6-6, Charlotte 1st -prot. 14-14-, own 2nd -unless 55 to 60-, Lakers 2nd, best of Chicago/NOLA 2nd). They don't have to pull the trigger now, but if they don't do something by next trade deadline (mainly with the 2nd rounders) those picks will lose value. So they can stand pat FOR NOW, but they shouldn't wait TOO LONG before making a move if they don't want to see their assets depreciate.

[stnick2261]

I had already read that article. You stated that "the Spurs reluctantly agreed because he'd be going to a good place", and that's a disingenuous statement.

I was not disingenuous at all. I was probably naive in thinking I could post a non-comprehensive argument without having to go back and clear up every minutia of thought. Obviously the Spurs don't make ANY trade that's not in their best interest.


The Spurs knew White had value, and wouldn't let him go until their price was met. Of course they were careful not to throw him into a dumpster fire, mainly because that would signal the end of team friendly deals, and that's a higher priority than a marginally better return. But your portrayal of the situation makes it seem that they agreed to a deal that they didn't like ("reluctantly") because of the "good" destination,

The original question was "How many times have the spurs traded a VERY good locker room guy on an amazing contract?" White was given as an answer.

My portrayal was that the Spurs were NOT shopping White, and having a good team make a good offer made the Spurs "reluctantly" agree to the trade (because it was in their best interest). I said that to relate that the Spurs would also not be looking to trade Johnson.


when the truth is more in line with they'd pass on deals they like because of the destination. Self interest comes first, in spite of whatever propaganda might have you believe. And that's JUST FINE.

Your portrayal here make it seem like they would be shopping him around and turning down good offers from bad destinations. In my perspective, they weren't shopping him (White then, or Johnson now).

I hope that clears up my stance (I don't like arguing online, so I'm going to stop now).

[JPB]

This is how you GM in real life. So many here want to GM like it’s a video game. Where you’re constantly moving good assets with no regard to team dynamics.

You're right about team dynamics but I honestly think a vet PG is at least discussed between spurs big heads. Are they confident Tre, Graham and Wesley is solid enough to put Wemby in the best conditions for his first year? Do they really want those 3 kids (two of them potential busts) to run a Wemby centric team? Are they OK for that team and Wemby to be badly exposed some nights because there's no one to get things straight?

Spurs are gonna have a lot of expoisition next year, let's at least put a coherent, reliable team on the court. And let's eventually not piss Wemby off for his first season. The kid hates losing.

[exstatic]

Partially true. The Spurs have 3 picks this year (#1, #33, #44) AND 5/6 PICKS NEXT YEAR (own 1st, Toronto 1st -prot. 6-6-6, Charlotte 1st -prot. 14-14-, own 2nd -unless 55 to 60-, Lakers 2nd, best of Chicago/NOLA 2nd). They don't have to pull the trigger now, but if they don't do something by next trade deadline (mainly with the 2nd rounders) those picks will lose value. So they can stand pat FOR NOW, but they shouldn't wait TOO LONG before making a move if they don't want to see their assets depreciate.

I think he's talking about not trading before the coming season. I also don't think our deadline is next NBA trade deadline. You absolutely do not trade the first rounders for anything but star power before you know where they are in the draft order. That Toronto pick could be as high as 7. The second rounders are easy to sell if we have too many picks in the draft. There are always multiple teams wanting to get back into a draft they may have traded out of a few years ago. SRPs have fetched around $3M apiece in the past.

[Mr. Body]

You're right about team dynamics but I honestly think a vet PG is at least discussed between spurs big heads. Are they confident Tre, Graham and Wesley is solid enough to put Wemby in the best conditions for his first year? Do they really want those 3 kids (two of them potential busts) to run a Wemby centric team? Are they OK for that team and Wemby to be badly exposed some nights because there's no one to get things straight?

Spurs are gonna have a lot of expoisition next year, let's at least put a coherent, reliable team on the court. And let's eventually not piss Wemby off for his first season. The kid hates losing.

I personally don't want to go into 23-24 with only Jones, Graham and Wesley as the points. I'm not even convinced Wesley is a point even if he hits. He seems more like a short SG.

That said, I do think the team will go into 23-24 with just those players, plus perhaps a guy like Amari Bailey from the second round.

I just don't see how they trade up high enough to get one of the better PGs in this draft. Can't manufacture something out of nothing without unacceptable cost.

And I don't see FAs that make sense, unless you want to open the checkbook for players like Dennis Schroeder or Seth Curry. Or, god forbid, Patrick Beverly.

[BacktoBasics]

You're right about team dynamics but I honestly think a vet PG is at least discussed between spurs big heads. Are they confident Tre, Graham and Wesley is solid enough to put Wemby in the best conditions for his first year? Do they really want those 3 kids (two of them potential busts) to run a Wemby centric team? Are they OK for that team and Wemby to be badly exposed some nights because there's no one to get things straight?

Spurs are gonna have a lot of expoisition next year, let's at least put a coherent, reliable team on the court. And let's eventually not piss Wemby off for his first season. The kid hates losing.

Fair point. My take on that is we’d benefit from a retired vet pg on the coaching staff.

[scott]

Partially true. The Spurs have 3 picks this year (#1, #33, #44) AND 5/6 PICKS NEXT YEAR (own 1st, Toronto 1st -prot. 6-6-6, Charlotte 1st -prot. 14-14-, own 2nd -unless 55 to 60-, Lakers 2nd, best of Chicago/NOLA 2nd). They don't have to pull the trigger now, but if they don't do something by next trade deadline (mainly with the 2nd rounders) those picks will lose value. So they can stand pat FOR NOW, but they shouldn't wait TOO LONG before making a move if they don't want to see their assets depreciate.

Perhaps the Spurs timing could live somewhere between the two “acquire more firepower now” and “stand pat and see what we’ve got” camps. I still contend it is perfectly reasonable to think the Spurs could contend for a playoff spot next season, and that will be something that is certainly apparent (or not) by the trade deadline. The Spurs will be in a position to have assets in the immediately upcoming draft, with more clarity on where those draft assets will land (whether TOR and CHA will even look to convey and the range where ours will likely fall). We’ll also have a much better sense of the team dynamics around Wemby and our other youngsters continuing their development path so the FO will have a much greater understanding of what further team building is needed.

While we don’t HAVE to be players at the 2024 trade deadline, that might be a spot where we decide to be. Of course, we’ll also another bite at the apple after the season before the draft. We’re in good shape here and I’m not too worried about this front. This FO has earned a lot of trust capital in my eyes, so I’m just buckling in and getting ready to enjoy the ride.

[Big Empty]

Come as Keldon about this upcoming season. He’s here at Slackers Northstar

[Big Empty]

Btw if we do trade up some create a thread the house of Boot Scootin Scoot

[talkspurs]

Meh that's how Boston won a title and made another Finals. It's how Miami won one. It's how Toronto won one. It's how LA won five. I'm not trading four picks for Rudy Gobert but if Doncic, Giannis, someone like that becomes available yeah dump your pics to get them.

So your saying you would trade a shot at several titles for 1? That is what you are doing when you trade away a team for a disgruntled player. Boston I think you are talking about KG and ray allen. Neither of these players were that disgruntled from what I remember. It was the teams deciding they were not going to make it and move on. Miami I think you are talking about recently and Lebron and Bosh decided to go there as FA. Yes they were trades but they were going there even if they did not trade as they were FA. this just gave something back to the teams. Toronto yes. LA which five are you talking about?
As for the people you mention. Giannis is the type of player I would like a good player that is not spoiled. He is older then I would like and see him starting his decline already. Lots of people like Luka. I see him as childish. He has not gotten along with other stars. As much as people talk about him needing help anytime he get it they seem to have problems. This is typically blamed on the other person but how many people can he go through before people start looking at him.
The spurs Built which is why they were competitive for so long so did warriors and Lakers. Its not about trading for the flash in the pan but building a team.

[baseline bum]

So your saying you would trade a shot at several titles for 1? That is what you are doing when you trade away a team for a disgruntled player. Boston I think you are talking about KG and ray allen. Neither of these players were that disgruntled from what I remember. It was the teams deciding they were not going to make it and move on. Miami I think you are talking about recently and Lebron and Bosh decided to go there as FA. Yes they were trades but they were going there even if they did not trade as they were FA. this just gave something back to the teams. Toronto yes. LA which five are you talking about?
As for the people you mention. Giannis is the type of player I would like a good player that is not spoiled. He is older then I would like and see him starting his decline already. Lots of people like Luka. I see him as childish. He has not gotten along with other stars. As much as people talk about him needing help anytime he get it they seem to have problems. This is typically blamed on the other person but how many people can he go through before people start looking at him.
The spurs Built which is why they were competitive for so long so did warriors and Lakers. Its not about trading for the flash in the pan but building a team.

I'd trade a shot at five years of being a contender for not being one. Wemby alone ain't winning a title any more than LeBron in Cleveland his first go around. If there is a KG in 08 level player that can be had in a year or two yeah I want him unless Atlanta has become Rockets level bad and those picks are looking like they'd be top 5.

[Mr. Body]

I'd trade a shot at five years of being a contender for not being one. Wemby alone ain't winning a title any more than LeBron in Cleveland his first go around. If there is a KG in 08 level player that can be had in a year or two yeah I want him unless Atlanta has become Rockets level bad and those picks are looking like they'd be top 5.

LeBron's whole problem in Cleveland was that they tried to contend right away and went all in. Fucked them up and he had to leave.

[baseline bum]

LeBron's whole problem in Cleveland was that they tried to contend right away and went all in. Fucked them up and he had to leave.

IDK, I remember their biggest screwup being Gund thinking he could get Boozer to sign a lowball long term deal and tearing up his rookie contract and then Boozer flipping the script on him and getting way more money in Utah.

[baseline bum]

So your saying you would trade a shot at several titles for 1? That is what you are doing when you trade away a team for a disgruntled player. Boston I think you are talking about KG and ray allen. Neither of these players were that disgruntled from what I remember. It was the teams deciding they were not going to make it and move on. Miami I think you are talking about recently and Lebron and Bosh decided to go there as FA. Yes they were trades but they were going there even if they did not trade as they were FA. this just gave something back to the teams. Toronto yes. LA which five are you talking about?

Sorry... Miami I was talking about Shaq and LA it was Kareem. Both of them were mad as hell when they forced the trades.

[talkspurs]

I'd trade a shot at five years of being a contender for not being one. Wemby alone ain't winning a title any more than LeBron in Cleveland his first go around. If there is a KG in 08 level player that can be had in a year or two yeah I want him unless Atlanta has become Rockets level bad and those picks are looking like they'd be top 5.

Your not trading for 5 years to win a title your trading for a year or 2. Stars do not stay with the team unless it is the team that drafted them and even that is getting less. When they are traded even if it is the team of their choice they are ready to move on if they do not win. If they dont move on they want someone else to come in and usually a big name to move on. AKA first it was AD, then needed Westbrook then no he hurt them had to move on. now they need someone else. Boston got KI and KD then got harden then did not want harden so moved him for BS. then they blew it up. Philly built up a team and wanted to go all in. Got tobias harris and then move simmons for harden. Now harden might be moving on and am starting to rumblings about Embid. Clippers traded everything to get george so they could get kawhi. Now that is not working out and trying to figure out which to move.
The point is you can either try and make a flash and end up being nothing or you can try and build up a team that enjoy playing together. Why did tony tim and manu stay together was because they liked each other. Yes winning helped but they also grew up together. Yes they all looked at leaving at different time but they stayed together. Look at the heat this year is mad u of mostly nobodys but they are in the championship. There are so many examples of teams going for the flash that fail and more examples that show building a team is the way to go. Not saying building will guarantee a chip but I think the odds are better then going for the flashy win.

[baseline bum]

Your not trading for 5 years to win a title your trading for a year or 2. Stars do not stay with the team unless it is the team that drafted them and even that is getting less. When they are traded even if it is the team of their choice they are ready to move on if they do not win. If they dont move on they want someone else to come in and usually a big name to move on. AKA first it was AD, then needed Westbrook then no he hurt them had to move on. now they need someone else. Boston got KI and KD then got harden then did not want harden so moved him for BS. then they blew it up. Philly built up a team and wanted to go all in. Got tobias harris and then move simmons for harden. Now harden might be moving on and am starting to rumblings about Embid. Clippers traded everything to get george so they could get kawhi. Now that is not working out and trying to figure out which to move.
The point is you can either try and make a flash and end up being nothing or you can try and build up a team that enjoy playing together. Why did tony tim and manu stay together was because they liked each other. Yes winning helped but they also grew up together. Yes they all looked at leaving at different time but they stayed together. Look at the heat this year is mad u of mostly nobodys but they are in the championship. There are so many examples of teams going for the flash that fail and more examples that show building a team is the way to go. Not saying building will guarantee a chip but I think the odds are better then going for the flashy win.

Hard to expect the Spurs to draft another Parker and another Ginobili even if they were picking #1 another two years. Parker was about an imbalance in how teams evaluated overseas prospects back then and Manu was just blind luck, a guy they picked because he hit a bunch of threes in a game in Argentina when the Spurs were scouting someone else so they swung wildly with a throw-away pick and hit a grand slam.

[baseline bum]

And honestly the Spurs got really lucky on the Tony pick too. Boston really wanted him but seemed to have talked themselves out of drafting him at the last second and the Spurs were desperately trying to trade up to land him and failed but he fell into their lap at #28.

[talkspurs]

Sorry... Miami I was talking about Shaq and LA it was Kareem. Both of them were mad as hell when they forced the trades.

With the Shaq trade I had forgotten about that one. Once again though your showing stars getting upset with one another and then one moving on. I think the trade was only a pick and 2 decent players (butler and Odem) This is a lot less then what is given up now. 4 1st and a few pick swaps plus young players. If it doesnt work you are out for a decade. back then if it did not work you could recover in a few years. The lakers trade that you mentioned was so long ago the league is different then it was then. Even the shaq trade is different then now but closer.

[talkspurs]

Hard to expect the Spurs to draft another Parker and another Ginobili even if they were picking #1 another two years. Parker was about an imbalance in how teams evaluated overseas prospects back then and Manu was just blind luck, a guy they picked because he hit a bunch of threes in a game in Argentina when the Spurs were scouting someone else so they swung wildly with a throw-away pick and hit a grand slam.

Why yes the spurs have not drafted anyone good late in the draft recently. lets just forget DJM, Keldon, White. Not saying they will continue to draft this well but they still show to find solid players. How much better would they have been with tim/Wimby. Would they have drafted that well if they were higher or would they have picked someone that did not work out Primo/Luka/Lonnie.

[baseline bum]

Why yes the spurs have not drafted anyone good late in the draft recently. lets just forget DJM, Keldon, White. Not saying they will continue to draft this well but they still show to find solid players. How much better would they have been with tim/Wimby. Would they have drafted that well if they were higher or would they have picked someone that did not work out Primo/Luka/Lonnie.

None of them is anywhere close to Tony or Manu who gave the Spurs that extended title window after the team looked too old with the 99-00 rule changes. It's so unrealistic to expect the Spurs to ever put that kind of team together again, especially through the draft. Do you think Murray, Keldon, or White is going to the Hall of Fame? Of all fanbases I can't believe Spurs fans would underrate how special of a core that was.

[Obstructed_View]

IDK, I remember their biggest screwup being Gund thinking he could get Boozer to sign a lowball long term deal and tearing up his rookie contract and then Boozer flipping the script on him and getting way more money in Utah.
Saw an interview with Boozer the other day where he claims that the league knew about the Gund offer and that he literally couldn't sign with the Cavs or they would have gotten slammed for tampering like the Timberwolves did. It was a convincing story.

[Obstructed_View]

Why yes the spurs have not drafted anyone good late in the draft recently. lets just forget DJM, Keldon, White. Not saying they will continue to draft this well but they still show to find solid players. How much better would they have been with tim/Wimby. Would they have drafted that well if they were higher or would they have picked someone that did not work out Primo/Luka/Lonnie.
The Spurs have drafted well. But I think his point was don't hold your breath for them, or any other team, to get two hall of famers at the end of the first and the end of the second two years apart.

[Bruno]

Partially true. The Spurs have 3 picks this year (#1, #33, #44) AND 5/6 PICKS NEXT YEAR (own 1st, Toronto 1st -prot. 6-6-6, Charlotte 1st -prot. 14-14-, own 2nd -unless 55 to 60-, Lakers 2nd, best of Chicago/NOLA 2nd). They don't have to pull the trigger now, but if they don't do something by next trade deadline (mainly with the 2nd rounders) those picks will lose value. So they can stand pat FOR NOW, but they shouldn't wait TOO LONG before making a move if they don't want to see their assets depreciate.

As exstatic said, I'm just talking about this summer. Having a clear picture of what Spurs should/could do at the 2024 trade deadline and beyond is just impossible. Spurs' FO and Pop will need to evaluate first how good most of their players are.

[scott]

The Nuggets and OKC just made a trade (which I didn't know was possible, that's cool).

NUGGETS GET:



Least favorable of OKC's 2024 FRP's (they have their own, Houston protected 1-4, LAC unprotected, Utah protected 1-10)
#37 overall in 2023 draft
OKC's 2024 SRP


THUNDER GET:



Protected 2029 FRP from DEN (protections not yet announced)


For those who think that the CHA pick has some value, this illustrated just what kind of value it might have. The Least Favorable OKC 2024 pick is SIGNIFICANTLY MORE valuable than the CHA Pick because a) it is guaranteed to convey and 2) it could be as high as Pick #2*. OKC had to give up this plus two SRP's to get a protected FRP 5 years down the road. The pick OKC is giving up is not a nothing pick, but they were forced to sell low because they have so many picks.

Biggest takeaway for me: you have to be careful not to end up in a position where you have to sell low because you have too many picks.

*For the pick DEN got to end up #2, it would require that OKC, LAC, HOU ended up with a Top 4 pick in 2024, and UTAH to get a Top 10 pick. If OKC and LAC ended up 1-2 (doesn't matter what order), then the #2 pick would be the least favorable.

[exstatic]

The Nuggets and OKC just made a trade (which I didn't know was possible, that's cool).

NUGGETS GET:



Least favorable of OKC's 2024 FRP's (they have their own, Houston protected 1-4, LAC unprotected, Utah protected 1-10)
#37 overall in 2023 draft
OKC's 2024 SRP


THUNDER GET:



Protected 2029 FRP from DEN (protections not yet announced)


For those who think that the CHA pick has some value, this illustrated just what kind of value it might have. The Least Favorable OKC 2024 pick is SIGNIFICANTLY MORE valuable than the CHA Pick because a) it is guaranteed to convey and 2) it could be as high as Pick #2*. OKC had to give up this plus two SRP's to get a protected FRP 5 years down the road. The pick OKC is giving up is not a nothing pick, but they were forced to sell low because they have so many picks.

Biggest takeaway for me: you have to be careful not to end up in a position where you have to sell low because you have too many picks.

*For the pick DEN got to end up #2, it would require that OKC, LAC, HOU ended up with a Top 4 pick in 2024, and UTAH to get a Top 10 pick. If OKC and LAC ended up 1-2 (doesn't matter what order), then the #2 pick would be the least favorable.

It's not going to be pick #2. It's not going to be a lottery pick. The only advantage that it has is the sure conveyance.

Charlotte has to make the playoffs if they want to make LaMelo happy. They have to. I'm 90% sure that pick conveys in the next 2 years, and if it does, it will probably be the same or better than the pick from OKC. If just one of those teams makes the playoffs as a high seed next year, the pick will be in the mid to late 20s, something I have a hard time seeing the Charlotte pick being. There's a reason that Denver insisted on that #37 pick, and it's because they know that the odds are overwhelming that the FRP pick for 2024 is going to be a crap late first rounder.

[jesterbobman]

The Denver trade is to me, an indication that there is a chance of arbitrage in value if other teams are in a different window. While there is the potential that the 2024 pick is really valuable, that's at most about a 3% chance IF the Clippers and the Thunder are the worst teams in the league, and the lottery balls go chalk.

Teams at different stages have different reasons for trades. Denver is clearly looking to maximise their current window, have some cheap bets on depth pieces (more shooting wings!!!), OKC is looking to have options for depth down the line, and the more distant a pick is, the more likely a team falls down completely and it could become valuable (I mean, I think Joker is probably still going to be a top 10 guy in 2029, so they probably won't be terrible) but I get the logic.

If the Spurs could package a number of their upcoming seconds to get a lightly protected first down the road when Wemby is on contract #2 and we need more depth, I'd be interested. E.g, would the Warriors (in cap hell, have a demonstrated recent inability to fuck up high picks) trade a top 5 protected pick 2028 pick for the Charlotte pick, one of the seconds next year (e.g, the Better of the Chicago / New Orleans pick (I'd guess 37 ish), and the Chicago 2nd in the 2025 draft (Probably 40ish)?

If we could, I'd prefer to move up in this draft (Similar idea, leverage another teams cap dreams and need for depth with assets like the package above and taking on some stinker contracts, like how the Pistons got Duren last year), but that depends on the price.

[spurraider21]

LeBron's whole problem in Cleveland was that they tried to contend right away and went all in. Fucked them up and he had to leave.
cavs went all in? lebron's best teammates during his first cleveland stint were ilgauksas and mo williams :lol

[mo7888]

It's not going to be pick #2. It's not going to be a lottery pick. The only advantage that it has is the sure conveyance.

Charlotte has to make the playoffs if they want to make LaMelo happy. They have to. I'm 90% sure that pick conveys in the next 2 years, and if it does, it will probably be the same or better than the pick from OKC. If just one of those teams makes the playoffs as a high seed next year, the pick will be in the mid to late 20s, something I have a hard time seeing the Charlotte pick being. There's a reason that Denver insisted on that #37 pick, and it's because they know that the odds are overwhelming that the FRP pick for 2024 is going to be a crap late first rounder.

Well said..

[scott]

It's not going to be pick #2. It's not going to be a lottery pick. The only advantage that it has is the sure conveyance.

Charlotte has to make the playoffs if they want to make LaMelo happy. They have to. I'm 90% sure that pick conveys in the next 2 years, and if it does, it will probably be the same or better than the pick from OKC. If just one of those teams makes the playoffs as a high seed next year, the pick will be in the mid to late 20s, something I have a hard time seeing the Charlotte pick being. There's a reason that Denver insisted on that #37 pick, and it's because they know that the odds are overwhelming that the FRP pick for 2024 is going to be a crap late first rounder.

I find your response interesting, because it dismisses a lot of possibilities on one hand while making a handful of assumptions on the other.

Is it likely that the OKC 24 pick going to Denver will be #2? No, as it would require a pretty phenomenal set of circumstances (that I outlined above).

But let's talk about it being a lottery pick. For this pick to be a lottery pick next year, it wouldn't require that much difference in outcomes than what happened this season. OKC was a play-in team that got bounced into the Lottery. The Clippers finished *one game* ahead of the play-in. They also got demolished in the first round, and it's not too outrageous to think they could have been bounced from the play-in round. If that scenario played out next season, OKC would be sending DEN a lottery pick. (This would also been the doomsday scenario for OKC, because the Houston and Utah picks would remain protected and OKC would be left with only their own pick next year, which might not actually be that bad of a scenario for them, but it leaves them with the least amount of assets in 2024).

Even if last season played out exactly again next season, OKC would be sending Denver pick #20, leaving a pretty slim window for the CHA to convey as a better pick. I don't see LAC as a team on the rise, with the questionable reliability of their two stars and cap troubles on the horizon with the new CBA. OKC, on the other hand, should be making a push the playoffs next season. However, an SGA injury could derail all of that and it it is not at all out of the reasonable range of outcomes that a lotto pick would be headed to DEN. I certainly don't think there is a strong likelihood that any of the 4 teams are a high seed next year, but you never know.

I'm surprised OKC made this deal now because going into 2024, all 4 of those picks have the potential to be pretty valuable. There is a realistic scenario where OKC could have ended up with 4 lotto picks next year, which wild. Alas, 4 picks is definitely too much weight to carry with an already young roster, and it is apparent that carrying so many FRPs into a single season diminishes the leverage OKC has because teams know they have to be a seller at some point.

I *think* (and I apologize if I'm mistaken) I've heard you say on this board that you wouldn't give up the TOR pick next year for a pick in the low teens because Toronto's pick *could* be as high as 7 next year. It could also be as low as 30. The right way to evaluate the value is based on the realistic probability of where these picks could fall, and upside matters. I wouldn't trade the TOR pick for pick #20 this year, but I would easily trade it for pick #11.

The pick going to DEN next year is SIGNIFICANTLY better than the CHA pick right now because 1) it is guaranteed to convey and 2) it has significantly more upside than the CHA pick. Even if there is only a 5% chance it is a lotto pick, the CHA pick has 0% chance of being one. I understand reasons to be optimistic that the CHA pick will convey, but I definitely would not pin those odds at 90%. Right now, I'd probably say it's more like 50-50, largely dependent on what decisions they make in the draft. If I were CHA I'd seriously be thinking about sending Melo to POR for #3 and Simons if POR would do it. But even taking Scoot or Miller I don't think makes them a playoff team this season, maybe next season but I still wouldn't call them a shoe-in.

[CGD]

^ as someone noted above, i do think there is a “dilution effect” of having too many picks in close annual proximity of each other. It’s important to have a consolidation strategy or to ready to draft all of them.

I feel SRPs are mostly to enrich the owners. Like as a fan who cares about all those SRPs we got for Richardson tbh? But as an owner that’s like 2-3m a piece in a fire sale.

[talkspurs]

None of them is anywhere close to Tony or Manu who gave the Spurs that extended title window after the team looked too old with the 99-00 rule changes. It's so unrealistic to expect the Spurs to ever put that kind of team together again, especially through the draft. Do you think Murray, Keldon, or White is going to the Hall of Fame? Of all fanbases I can't believe Spurs fans would underrate how special of a core that was.

I think part of what made Tony and manu so good was the team they were on. Yes they were good individually but what made them great was playing as a team and willing to sacrifice for the team.

If Murray was on a better team and was more mature then yes I could see him reaching those levels. He already has one all star and might get more in his career. I dont think he will have the National team wins like manu or tp but he could get more All stars. He is just hitting his peak but how a team does effects what we think of the player.

[talkspurs]

The Spurs have drafted well. But I think his point was don't hold your breath for them, or any other team, to get two hall of famers at the end of the first and the end of the second two years apart.

I understand what he is trying to say but back then no one thought they were good either. It is more about building a team. That is why so many of these star pairing fail is because they have such big egos. Look at who is in the finals. Jokic 2nd rd, Bam 14th pick, Butler 30th pick, Murry is a little higher at 7th pick.

More sarcastic side, I know these were all a few years ago and only thing that matters is what is going forward. They have perfected the draft and now every player picked will turn out to be exactly where they should have been picked. When they do mock redrafts they will decide every player was picked at the right spot.

There are steals found every year and it will be the job of the FO to find them.

[Ariel]

We can't fully analyze the OKC/Denver trade until protections are disclosed. Knowing Presti's history and mindset, I find it next to impossible he didn't include some sort of protection on that "worse of ..." pick to prevent some blunder from happening. Also it's not the same if the protections on Denver's pick are top 4, top 10, or flat out lottery protected. Jury is out on the deal until the full info comes out.

[R. DeMurre]

We can't fully analyze the OKC/Denver trade until protections are disclosed. Knowing Presti's history and mindset, I find it next to impossible he didn't include some sort of protection on that "worse of ..." pick to prevent some blunder from happening. Also it's not the same if the protections on Denver's pick are top 4, top 10, or flat out lottery protected. Jury is out on the deal until the full info comes out.

Either way, it's a great move for Denver. They have the world's best player, a very good PG, and a few solid role players, and now they have four shots ( 1 FRP, 3 SRP) in the next two drafts at getting a couple more contributors to depth on very inexpensive contracts. Calvin Booth is maximizing their potential now, which is smart. If Jokic stays healthy, he could be a great 34 yr old player in the tradition of Duncan and Kareem, and that pick could easily be a #25-30.

[JPB]

Hard to expect the Spurs to draft another Parker and another Ginobili even if they were picking #1 another two years. Parker was about an imbalance in how teams evaluated overseas prospects back then and Manu was just blind luck, a guy they picked because he hit a bunch of threes in a game in Argentina when the Spurs were scouting someone else so they swung wildly with a throw-away pick and hit a grand slam.

They didn't pick him just out of this game... Manu already caught RC's attention in 1997 during the U22 World Cup Argentina won. And he kept an eye on him until the 1999 draft. The guy they were supposedly coming to see in Argentina may have been typical spurs smoke screen to hide Manu.

[Obstructed_View]

They didn't pick him just out of this game... Manu already caught RC's attention in 1997 during the U22 World Cup Argentina won. And he kept an eye on him until the 1999 draft. The guy they were supposedly coming to see in Argentina may have been typical spurs smoke screen to hide Manu.

They didn't really want to pick anyone. They tried to get rid of the pick. They would probably tell you that the reason they picked Manu is because they didn't want another body gumming up the roster. Not even sure what would have happened if he had tried to come over.

[Ariel]

They didn't pick him just out of this game... Manu already caught RC's attention in 1997 during the U22 World Cup Argentina won. And he kept an eye on him until the 1999 draft. The guy they were supposedly coming to see in Argentina may have been typical spurs smoke screen to hide Manu.
Manu wasn't drafted out of a game where he hit a bunch of 3s in Argentina, you're right about that. But Argentina didn't win that U22 championship either, we came in 4th, but that was the foundation for the wildly successful NT that won gold in the Olympics and got silver in the WC. RC was scouting that tournament, and the players drawing most attention were Lucas Victoriano and Fabricio Oberto. But RC contacted the coaching staff asking for references about Manu. Then they started following him, and ended up drafting him in '99 with an almost worthless 57th pick, so clearly it wasn't like they knew what he'd become. But they took a chance on him, and Manu blew up in Italy after he was drafted and stayed there until '02 winning pretty much everything.

[scott]

I remember those threads in the forum we were at before ST was born about this kid we drafted and how he was doing in Europe. I also remember the big fuss about not giving him #6 :lol

Good times. Did we get lucky? Yes. Who cares tho.

[spurs10]

Manu wasn't drafted out of a game where he hit a bunch of 3s in Argentina, you're right about that. But Argentina didn't win that U22 championship either, we came in 4th, but that was the foundation for the wildly successful NT that won gold in the Olympics and got silver in the WC. RC was scouting that tournament, and the players drawing most attention were Lucas Victoriano and Fabricio Oberto. But RC contacted the coaching staff asking for references about Manu. Then they started following him, and ended up drafting him in '99 with an almost worthless 57th pick, so clearly it wasn't like they knew what he'd become. But they took a chance on him, and Manu blew up in Italy after he was drafted and stayed there until '02 winning pretty much everything. Cool post.

[EricB]

I remember those threads in the forum we were at before ST was born about this kid we drafted and how he was doing in Europe. I also remember the big fuss about not giving him #6 :lol

Good times. Did we get lucky? Yes. Who cares tho.


I still remember Don Harris saying “who does this guy think he is taking number 6”

[JPB]

Manu wasn't drafted out of a game where he hit a bunch of 3s in Argentina, you're right about that. But Argentina didn't win that U22 championship either, we came in 4th, but that was the foundation for the wildly successful NT that won gold in the Olympics and got silver in the WC. RC was scouting that tournament, and the players drawing most attention were Lucas Victoriano and Fabricio Oberto. But RC contacted the coaching staff asking for references about Manu. Then they started following him, and ended up drafting him in '99 with an almost worthless 57th pick, so clearly it wasn't like they knew what he'd become. But they took a chance on him, and Manu blew up in Italy after he was drafted and stayed there until '02 winning pretty much everything.

I remember R.C saying that he saw him again in the 1998 FIBA World Cup and while he was still pretty skinny, he was impressed by Manu's fearlessness and energy but no way he knew what player Manu would become. when they drafted him

But then in the 2022 POs, while spurs were struggling vs. the Lakers in the WCF, R.C tried to concvince Pop to add Manu to the roster for that series after he had a great season in Bologna. So he knew Manu could be something before he even started in the NBA. Pop denied R.C ofc...