Sportrac 2020 Draft Class Rookie Scale Extension Projections

[scott]

https://www.spotrac.com/news/2020-draft-class-rookie-scale-extension-updates-and-predictions-1905/

Relevant to Spurs:




DEVIN VASSELL (https://www.spotrac.com/nba/san-antonio-spurs/devin-vassell-70653/), SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Vassell suffered through an injury-plagued third season, but he improved nearly across the board. The Spurs locked up Keldon Johnson to a value deal last summer and will look to do the same with Vassell. This is another one where the five-year allowance for non-max deals in the CBA could be big.
Prediction: Five years, $115 million, no options

Interesting to see that most rookies from this class are projected for no extension at all. Just a reminder that the draft is a crap shoot and the Spurs are actually pretty good at this shit.

[Chinook]

Maybe with max incentives and/or a player option in that last year.

[Mr. Body]

Vassell is going to be fire this year. If anyone stands to benefit from Wembanyama, Devin is going to get a ton of shots.

[RC_Drunkford]

https://www.spotrac.com/news/2020-draft-class-rookie-scale-extension-updates-and-predictions-1905/

Relevant to Spurs:



Interesting to see that most rookies from this class are projected for no extension at all. Just a reminder that the draft is a crap shoot and the Spurs are actually pretty good at this shit. [/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

I like that. The number is realistic. 5 years on a frontloaded contract would be great. 25, 25, 23, 22, 20 something like that

[exstatic]

https://www.spotrac.com/news/2020-draft-class-rookie-scale-extension-updates-and-predictions-1905/

Relevant to Spurs:



Interesting to see that most rookies from this class are projected for no extension at all. Just a reminder that the draft is a crap shoot and the Spurs are actually pretty good at this shit. [/B][/FONT][/COLOR]

It was an awful draft. If you go back and look at the top 10, only LaMelo is a hit.

[spurraider21]

i'd do 5/115 in a heartbeat. not sure vassell would.

[Robz4000]

It was an awful draft. If you go back and look at the top 10, only LaMelo is a hit.

Forgot about Anthony Edwards tbh.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

So let it be written...

[exstatic]

Forgot about Anthony Edwards tbh.

He's an idiot. He'll be vastly overpaid for his productivity, and be known as an awful contract within 2 years.

I remember a game we played where he dunked, and stayed on that end while Tre got the inbounds pass, and got the Spurs an easy basket 5 on 4 while Ant Man was still flexing. If I were the GM, I'd be trying to trade his dumb ass.

Oh, and his failure to set the MN scoring record while being left in the game for half a dozen possessions to score 3 points.

NBA junk food.

[Robz4000]

He's an idiot. He'll be vastly overpaid for his productivity, and be known as an awful contract within 2 years.

I remember a game we played where he dunked, and stayed on that end while Tre got the inbounds pass, and got the Spurs an easy basket 5 on 4 while Ant Man was still flexing. If I were the GM, I'd be trying to trade his dumb ass.

Oh, and his failure to set the MN scoring record while being left in the game for half a dozen possessions to score 3 points.

NBA junk food.

Lamelo has been empty stats too so far; Charlotte won as many games with him as without iirc.

[CGD]

Halliburton is the class of that draft. Still think Eduards will end up being cool, but he needs to be separated from KATs loser ass.

[couchman]

5 yrs 115million seems great if the Spurs aren’t worried about his knee

Notable that the best players on that draft went:
1
3
11
12
21
25
28
30

[Drom John]

Top 15 in B-R VORP

12
3
30
1
25
21
19
6
35
8
11
15
26
52
41

[mo7888]

Not an extension, but Tre Jones was in the 2020 draft class and Hollinger put is FA value at just over $20M in his article today.

[Seventyniner]

Not an extension, but Tre Jones was in the 2020 draft class and Hollinger put is FA value at just over $20M in his article today.

Ugh. Tre is good but not $20M good. At least with his current inability to consistently hit threes. If he can get that percentage into the high 30s he would be worth $20M imo.

[Obstructed_View]

The Spurs will certainly have him in the gym before they make that decision.

[scott]

Not an extension, but Tre Jones was in the 2020 draft class and Hollinger put is FA value at just over $20M in his article today.

Sheeeeeeeeeesh, from who?!?

[CGD]

Not an extension, but Tre Jones was in the 2020 draft class and Hollinger put is FA value at just over $20M in his article today.

Damn that seems high. I can see 12M as upper limit though.

[SpursFan86]

Excerpt from referenced Hollinger article:

“14. Tre Jones, PG, 23, San Antonio (restricted): $20,909,844This valuation is perhaps a bit surprising. Jones is young and low-key had a solid year for an overmatched San Antonio squad, but the question still lingers about whether he can be more than a low-mistake setup guy. Jones has a solid floater game and a ridiculous assist-turnover ratio, but he’s only 6-1 and shoots 27.1 percent career from 3. He probably projects better as a high-level backup than as a long-term starter, which would justify a salary in the $50 million range over three years but not as high as this BORD$ valuation wants to go.
Jones is a restricted free agent on a rebuilding Spurs team with $35 million in projected cap space, so rival teams are unlikely to view him as a gettable target unless they go crazy on an offer sheet. This could mute his market a bit, but the other angle for San Antonio is that it could sign him to a declining money contract. The Spurs don’t really need the extra cap room right now, so they can afford to start him at a high number, but signing for three or four years with 8 percent salary declines could provide great value in the out years.
For example, a four-year, $70 million deal that starts him at $20 million in 2023-24 might seem expensive, but in his age-27 season in 2026-27, the Spurs would pay him just $15 million when the cap could very well be up to $178 million (if the 10 percent annual limits in the next CBA are hit).”

[buttsR4rebounding]

So $70M/4 for Tre and $105M/5 for Devin. That values Devin at $3.5 million per year more than Tre. That doesn’t seem right to me. Either Tre is too high or Devin too low.

[mo7888]

Damn that seems high. I can see 12M as upper limit though.

I think it's way to high myself, but it probably does mean that his value is a good bit higher than I would have thought. I would have pegged it at around $12M/per as well.

[Degoat]

Nobody will offer Tre Jones that kind of offer sheet lol

[Trueblood]

Am I the only one who doesn't think Vassell was really injured that bad this year? I think he probably had a sore knee, but I think he DNP's had more to do with a quiet tank job and letting him rest. I won't go so far as to say they were purposely sitting him to highlight KJ for a potential trade... But I do believe they wanted to lose and they used his very slightly sore knee as an excuse to keep him out and keep the losses coming. Now they're going to lock in their healthy starting two guard for 5 years to see him develop alongside Wemby.

[Mr. Body]

I think Spurs fans have a very limited idea of what players make in the NBA.

[Seventyniner]

Excerpt from referenced Hollinger article:

“14. Tre Jones, PG, 23, San Antonio (restricted): $20,909,844

This valuation is perhaps a bit surprising. Jones is young and low-key had a solid year for an overmatched San Antonio squad, but the question still lingers about whether he can be more than a low-mistake setup guy. Jones has a solid floater game and a ridiculous assist-turnover ratio, but he’s only 6-1 and shoots 27.1 percent career from 3. He probably projects better as a high-level backup than as a long-term starter, which would justify a salary in the $50 million range over three years but not as high as this BORD$ valuation wants to go.
Jones is a restricted free agent on a rebuilding Spurs team with $35 million in projected cap space, so rival teams are unlikely to view him as a gettable target unless they go crazy on an offer sheet. This could mute his market a bit, but the other angle for San Antonio is that it could sign him to a declining money contract. The Spurs don’t really need the extra cap room right now, so they can afford to start him at a high number, but signing for three or four years with 8 percent salary declines could provide great value in the out years.
For example, a four-year, $70 million deal that starts him at $20 million in 2023-24 might seem expensive, but in his age-27 season in 2026-27, the Spurs would pay him just $15 million when the cap could very well be up to $178 million (if the 10 percent annual limits in the next CBA are hit).”

Thanks for the excerpt. :bobo

I'm afraid that Tre wouldn't take a declining deal because if the Spurs want to re-sign him at the end of that deal, and if the Spurs are over the cap at that point (as they likely will be), under the current CBA Tre's new deal could only start at 108% of the last year of salary. An increasing deal instead of a decreasing one makes a lot of difference over those 4 years, and Tre will be 27 and looking for the biggest contract of his career.

Maybe the sides can compromise on a flat deal, but if I'm Tre's agent I'm telling him not to take a declining deal. It would take a lot more up front to compensate for that.

[talkspurs]

So $70M/4 for Tre and $105M/5 for Devin. That values Devin at $3.5 million per year more than Tre. That doesn’t seem right to me. Either Tre is too high or Devin too low.

I think it is to much for Tre but I also think people overvalue Devin on here.

[TD 21]

I think it's way to high myself, but it probably does mean that his value is a good bit higher than I would have thought. I would have pegged it at around $12M/per as well.

And you'll be proven correct in time. Hollinger is using some formula/analytic to base what these players should be worth . . . but that's not how it works in reality.

A small guard, who can't shoot and lacks dynamism in any area of half court offense, at a saturated position, is not going to command anywhere near the amount suggested.

[CGD]

Thanks for the excerpt. :bobo

I'm afraid that Tre wouldn't take a declining deal because if the Spurs want to re-sign him at the end of that deal, and if the Spurs are over the cap at that point (as they likely will be), under the current CBA Tre's new deal could only start at 108% of the last year of salary. An increasing deal instead of a decreasing one makes a lot of difference over those 4 years, and Tre will be 27 and looking for the biggest contract of his career.

Maybe the sides can compromise on a flat deal, but if I'm Tre's agent I'm telling him not to take a declining deal. It would take a lot more up front to compensate for that.

Interesting. I wonder if for a player close to his developmental ceiling like Tre if it might make sense to still do the declining deal and lock in the upfront premium now. Not sure his market will be that much better in the future.

But for Devin who still has a leap to make, I think your reasoning about the declining deal makes a lot of sense.

[CGD]

I think it's way to high myself, but it probably does mean that his value is a good bit higher than I would have thought. I would have pegged it at around $12M/per as well.

Yeah I think his up ceiling comp, ironically is his brother. Tyus is at about 14M/y, but is the better player so far.

[venitian navigator]

After a year with a 3rd worst record in the league I don't think players have many reasons to ask for contracts exceeding their real value... Tre has flows in his game and Vassell carry risks because he looked too fragile to be worth a massive investment. The main quality they carry with them is they both know the system and both looked like a good character guys. And growing in a improving team like spurs seem destined to become (thanks to the Wemby draft) could be the best perspective for them. Imho Tre value is the one of a decent back up, so in the mle exception range. Vassell situation is, actually, comparable (but inferior considering both outcomes) to the KJ one, so no way I would pay him x year so much more than him...

[RC_Drunkford]

Tre is worth 10 mil per year. Not more. Do 11.5, 10.5, 9.5, 8.5

[Big Empty]

Just how bad was Devin’s knee injury? I figured the Spurs held him out longer just as a “Wemby tank” precaution

[exstatic]

Just how bad was Devin’s knee injury? I figured the Spurs held him out longer just as a “Wemby tank” precaution

They did probably hold him out longer than necessary for…reasons, but he did in fact have meniscus surgery.

[KingKev]

Alot of this comes down to who actually has the money to pay these guys. Few teams have outright cap space to throw big bucks.

[Stump]

It seems like Spurs fans are largely in agreement of roughly how much Tre is worth per year. I'm more interested in how long should he be signed for. Do we offer him a two-year deal with the intention of re-evaluating the PG position soon, or do we sign him for longer and plan for him to be a long-term role-player?

If the fit is right for both sides, I lean toward the latter. If we're reluctant enough to make a longer commitment, maybe it's better to go in a different direction this summer rather than putting it off.

[rankingtear]

Tre would get McDermott type contract a little higher than people here want so they have flexibility in year 3 and 4, the Giannis and Luka free agency. Devin get Vanvleet contract with a weird dip in year 2. They may also restructured Zollins if possible and bump his salary this year to end in 2 years or a team option in year 3. KBD 2+1 team option. They may overpay for flexibility and specifically target the free agency class 25 and 26.

[RC_Drunkford]

I'd like to sign him long term. If you want to make changes in 2 years you can still trade him while he's on a good value 2-year deal. You don't lose anything if you sing him for 4 years

[spurraider21]

i'd do 5/115 in a heartbeat. not sure vassell would.
yeah.

he still got more than i expected. before i knew the 5 year deals were a thing, my thought was in the 4/90 range, but if they wanted to get in the extra fifth year, the annual salary would probably have to be higher. still, i would have assumed they'd land around 130.

with that said, if he can go back to being an impact defender, this could still wind up looking like a bargain, just like white, dejounte, and keldon's deals all did