The Value of Future FRPs

[scott]

This came up in another thread, and I had been thinking of starting a thread ranking the Spurs future picks, but I'm not as illustrious as some of the other posters on this board and I wasn't sure anyone cared. But since it came up...

Here is how I would rank all of our yet-to-be-taken FRPs, WITHOUT fully considering the time value of picks (which I think is very real. A pick this year is worth more than a pick next year with equal protections and so on), though I did factor in some time element. What I didn't consider is trying to crystal ball how good teams will be in the future. So for now, a Spurs unprotected FRP is worth more than a ATL unprotected FRP because the Spurs are currently a lotto team and ATL is currently a play-in team. I only went out to 2028.

1. 2023 Spurs FRP (duh. It's #1 overall)
2. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

Aside from perhaps some shuffling based on time value of picks, would you rank these any differently?

[bluebellmaniac]

This came up in another thread, and I had been thinking of starting a thread ranking the Spurs future picks, but I'm not as illustrious as some of the other posters on this board and I wasn't sure anyone cared. But since it came up...

Here is how I would rank all of our yet-to-be-taken FRPs, WITHOUT fully considering the time value of picks (which I think is very real. A pick this year is worth more than a pick next year with equal protections and so on), though I did factor in some time element. What I didn't consider is trying to crystal ball how good teams will be in the future. So for now, a Spurs unprotected FRP is worth more than a ATL unprotected FRP because the Spurs are currently a lotto team and ATL is currently a play-in team. I only went out to 2028.

1. 2023 Spurs FRP (duh. It's #1 overall)
2. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

Aside from perhaps some shuffling based on time value of picks, would you rank these any differently?

Dang good reasoning. Hard to argue with that without projecting how good teams will be.

[BackHome]

I think 2024 is going to be a good year for us as far as draft picks....:toast

[BacktoBasics]

That Raptor pick next year has potential to be something interesting if they lose FVV.

[CGD]

That Raptor pick next year has potential to be something interesting if they lose FVV.

Good thread. Agree on TOR and they move Pascal too. I also think if CHI pick moves to 2026 and top 8 protected, I might move it above any Spurs natural pick after 2025 given the opposite trajectories of the teams (as we think of them today).

[rascal]

Move the Hawks picks ahead of the spurs picks in value after 2024.

Higher probability the Spurs will be better than the Hawks after next year.

[DPG21920]

AtL non protected picks too low imo. Getting firsts is hard as we saw at this last trade deadline. Teams giving up 5 2nds instead of 1 protected first for example. Unprotected picks from teams in flux are insanely valuable even if we know the outcome could very well be pick 15-25 too.

[scott]

AtL non protected picks too low imo. Getting firsts is hard as we saw at this last trade deadline. Teams giving up 5 2nds instead of 1 protected first for example. Unprotected picks from teams in flux are insanely valuable even if we know the outcome could very well be pick 15-25 too.

The only reason the Hawks unprotected picks are so low is because of the caveat I laid out that I'm not trying to look into the crystal ball and guess how good teams will be relative to one another in the future. You are correct however, that if Wemby pans out like the other FRPs in our history and the Hawks continue on the direction the are currently on, then I would move them to #4/5 or #5/6 on this list (still a case to be made that our own pick in 2024 might be pretty juicy, though I honestly think we could be a play-in team in Wemby's rookie season). The Spurs FRPs with swaps attached remain the most valuable in my opinion for now.

[scott]

I'm not going to take the time to line up the SRPs we have in the horizon, but I think someone else definitely should :lol

[CGD]

I'm not going to take the time to line up the SRPs we have in the horizon, but I think someone else definitely should :lol

Here they are (unranked and not including spurs natural picks)!

2023 SRP Toronto (#44)
2024 SRP (best of NO/CHI)
2024 SRP Lakers
2025 SRP Chicago
2025 SRP Toronto
2026 SRP (complicated protections)
2026 SRP (worse POR/NOLA)
2027 SRP (complicated protections)
2028 SRP Miami
2028 SRP Denver (protected for 31-33)
2028 SRP New Orleans
2029 SRP New Orleans

[DPG21920]

The only reason the Hawks unprotected picks are so low is because of the caveat I laid out that I'm not trying to look into the crystal ball and guess how good teams will be relative to one another in the future. You are correct however, that if Wemby pans out like the other FRPs in our history and the Hawks continue on the direction the are currently on, then I would move them to #4/5 or #5/6 on this list (still a case to be made that our own pick in 2024 might be pretty juicy, though I honestly think we could be a play-in team in Wemby's rookie season). The Spurs FRPs with swaps attached remain the most valuable in my opinion for now.

I would agree in the context of their importance to the Spurs….your own pick are always the most valuable to you for good reason; means you control your own destiny. But I think to other teams it may be viewed a bit differently and we know the Spurs aren’t trading any of their picks without protections like we’ve seen others do recently. That trend seems dead seeing how it has not worked out well for basically anyone who has given those up.

*Caveat: If Luka or someone like that becomes available, Spurs and others would give those up for sure.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Great thread scott.

I like it that you put the 2026 pick swap that high because that draft is supposed to be insanely good (Boozer, Flagg, etc.). Obviously it's very early and perhaps some of the players might reclassify but generally, right now, I'd say the Atlanta 2025-207 pick stash would have the most value in a trade and with some luck it might give the Spurs a second star to add to a hopefully emerging MVP candidate should they decide to build slowly through the draft.

[Teamduncan21]

AtL non protected picks too low imo. Getting firsts is hard as we saw at this last trade deadline. Teams giving up 5 2nds instead of 1 protected first for example. Unprotected picks from teams in flux are insanely valuable even if we know the outcome could very well be pick 15-25 too.

I thought about that too. But then it's also about control.
Spurs can tank and make that pick high as necessary. But we can't tell hawks to tank for us

[thiste]

You could take into account that 2024 is projected to be a very weak class.

[DPG21920]

I thought about that too. But then it's also about control.
Spurs can tank and make that pick high as necessary. But we can't tell hawks to tank for us

Agree - from SA perspective that’s true and why SA picks are more valuable to SA. But to other teams? Would you rather have an unprotected ATL pick in the future or what would likely be a protected Spurs pick since I doubt teams are giving up unprotected picks any more unless it’s for a Luka type.

[exstatic]

I thought about that too. But then it's also about control.
Spurs can tank and make that pick high as necessary. But we can't tell hawks to tank for us

We literally can't, with a healthy Wemby.

[exstatic]

Great thread scott.

I like it that you put the 2026 pick swap that high because that draft is supposed to be insanely good (Boozer, Flagg, etc.). Obviously it's very early and perhaps some of the players might reclassify but generally, right now, I'd say the Atlanta 2025-207 pick stash would have the most value in a trade and with some luck it might give the Spurs a second star to add to a hopefully emerging MVP candidate should they decide to build slowly through the draft.

Isn't that the Bryce James draft, as well? He's already grown 3" taller than Bronny, and may not be done, and retained his guard skills in a wing body. I don't give a crap about Bronny, and he'll be lucky to get a second contract in the NBA, but Bryce could be something. LeBron calls him the best shooter in the family.

[Mr. Body]

We're never going to get rid of the James family, are we?

[exstatic]

We're never going to get rid of the James family, are we?

I don't see Bronny lasting in the league, but Bryce has piqued my interest. I also like that he was a late bloomer, and not showered with adulation from the time he was in the crib. He actually had to play JV ball at Sierra Canyon.

[CorrectCrusader]

I thought about that too. But then it's also about control.
Spurs can tank and make that pick high as necessary. But we can't tell hawks to tank for us
Y'all are gonna be surprised how good Wemby will look in the NBA. I'm projecting a Luka rookie level impact for Wemby year one.

[Mr. Body]

Y'all are gonna be surprised how good Wemby will look in the NBA. I'm projecting a Luka rookie level impact for Wemby year one.

I would take Wembanyama #1 solely for defense, and that's going to translate immediately.

[CorrectCrusader]

I would take Wembanyama #1 solely for defense, and that's going to translate immediately.

He's going to be a monster, that's for sure.

[montgod]

Great thread scott.

I like it that you put the 2026 pick swap that high because that draft is supposed to be insanely good (Boozer, Flagg, etc.). Obviously it's very early and perhaps some of the players might reclassify but generally, right now, I'd say the Atlanta 2025-207 pick stash would have the most value in a trade and with some luck it might give the Spurs a second star to add to a hopefully emerging MVP candidate should they decide to build slowly through the draft.

Good take and these were my thoughts as well. Whoever is projected to come out or the class as a whole should factor into if that year's pick(s) are more valuable than other years. Since we don't have all that info, I also read 2024 is said to be a weaker draft class so why not use those for a possible trade up this year.

[Mr. Body]

"Weak draft class" almost always refers to top level players, the ones you can see a couple years out. (Although this isn't foolproof.) The rest of the draft can never be known until the college or G-League games are played. Every year, well-regarded players tank and players barely on the radar shine. But yes next year's draft is seen as weak. My point is that this is premature.

[couchman]

Great topic thanks!
The value of Spurs va ATL is debatable.
On one hand we can tank again if circumstances require and control our own picks.
OTOH the ATL picks can give us a shot at the lottery, even if we are a playoff team.
A lot depends on how soon we can become a competitive team.
My guess is that by 2026 draft the ATL picks will be better and maybe even by 2025.

[scottspurs]

I really don’t think you trade your own future picks until you know for sure this is headed towards contending. I’m all for trading 3 assets for 1 and seeing how high that gets you in this draft. Keldon Johnson to me is only traded if we can get up into top 7 and that’s assuming Brandon Miller doesn’t fall to 7. He is the one guy spurs are definitely not trading up for.

so how far up does the following trade assets get you?

keldon, bulls pick, raptors pick

Zach Collins, bulls pick, raptors pick

raptors pick, bulls pick, hornets pick

Both hawks picks, bulls or hornets pick

pick 33, bulls pick, hornets pick

Pick 33, Blake Wesley, raptors pick

these are examples of potential trade up packages. If they could dump the bulls and hornets picks to move up with 33 that would be the ultimate win

[BacktoBasics]

I really don’t think you trade your own future picks until you know for sure this is headed towards contending. I’m all for trading 3 assets for 1 and seeing how high that gets you in this draft. Keldon Johnson to me is only traded if we can get up into top 7 and that’s assuming Brandon Miller doesn’t fall to 7. He is the one guy spurs are definitely not trading up for.

so how far up does the following trade assets get you?

keldon, bulls pick, raptors pick

Zach Collins, bulls pick, raptors pick

raptors pick, bulls pick, hornets pick

Both hawks picks, bulls or hornets pick

pick 33, bulls pick, hornets pick

Pick 33, Blake Wesley, raptors pick

these are examples of potential trade up packages. If they could dump the bulls and hornets picks to move up with 33 that would be the ultimate win

I would only move Keldon for top 3. 4th pick and beyond is a stretch for me. There’s no guaranteed production that balances potential after the 3rd pick. I have no issue with Miller either. We need Keldon to handle the offensive load this year and maybe next. Unless you’re returning proven talent or significant potential of a top 3 pick I have no interest in trading him.

Wemby and Vassell are not enough to carry the offense and it’s too much to ask of Wemby. Keldon takes a ton of pressure off the core.

Look at how these teams with high picks have struggled. Can’t develop a roster all at one time. Wemby couldn’t ask for a better group than Keldon, Vassell and Branham to help him ease in.

Your other trade examples are reasonable to me. Collins might be a good player to move with picks.

[Russ]

Looking at it from my simple, unsophisticated POV it's damn impressive -- the Spurs have ten 1st Round picks and ten 2nd Round picks during the five year period from 2024-2028.

[scottspurs]

I agree with you on Keldon unless the Spurs are really high on one of the Thompson twins. If they believe they can unlock their potential I would be all for it. Otherwise, I’m all for letting the draft play out and seeing how far you can get up with other assets. I’m sure the Spurs have had conversations with teams on packages if a player they like drops and that team wants out of their pick. I think 3 assets for one will be the price until we get to the pick 22 range

[exstatic]

I agree with you on Keldon unless the Spurs are really high on one of the Thompson twins. If they believe they can unlock their potential I would be all for it. Otherwise, I’m all for letting the draft play out and seeing how far you can get up with other assets. I’m sure the Spurs have had conversations with teams on packages if a player they like drops and that team wants out of their pick. I think 3 assets for one will be the price until we get to the pick 22 range

Depends what the assets are.

[JPB]

About the argument explaining spurs should use their 31 picks rather quickly, not to hurt their value... Here's why I believe that it doesn't stand...

First and foremsot, those 31 picks are own to the spurs in the next SEVEN years... A lot of things can and will happen within that span, and if Wemby becomes who we all hope he will, spurs will need a lot picks to bring stars but also role, players eventually having to overpay..

But let's see what we're talking about here:

- The 19 second round picks:

they're really not a problem. As we've seen this past deadline, you can package them by grasps to get role players, use them to sweeten those star or role player trades also by grasps (like 4 or 5), you can sell them or use them on stashed payers. Really not a problem to "get rid of them"

- the 12 first round picks.

That's 7 of our own picks + 5 obtained via trades. So that's basically it. that handful of bonus FRPs allow you to conclude big trades to build a contender around Wemby all the while picking FR prospects you believe in, like spurs have been doing during the Big 3 era...

So I don't see any "pressure" the spurs would have to spend their picks in this draft and overapay for a lottery pick or whatever... It's all good, they're in a comfortable position and don't HAVE to make a move for the sake of it, but only if they REALLY believe that's worth it, just like next year and the following ones... Not only they don't have, but they shouldn't and stay smart and wise, focusing on players value, independently of their mass of picks...

[exstatic]

About the argument explaining spurs should use their 31 picks rather quickly, not to hurt their value... Here's why I believe that it doesn't stand...

First and foremsot, those 31 picks are own to the spurs in the next SEVEN years... A lot of things can and will happen within that span, and if Wemby becomes who we all hope he will, spurs will need a lot picks to bring stars but also role, players eventually having to overpay..

But let's see what we're talking about here:

- The 19 second round picks:

they're really not a problem. As we've seen this past deadline, you can package them by grasps to get role players, use them to sweeten those star or role player trades also by grasps (like 4 or 5), you can sell them or use them on stashed payers. Really not a problem to "get rid of them"

- the 12 first round picks.

That's 7 of our own picks + 5 obtained via trades. So that's basically it. that handful of bonus FRPs allow you to conclude big trades to build a contender around Wemby all the while picking FR prospects you believe in, like spurs have been doing during the Big 3 era...

So I don't see any "pressure" the spurs would have to spend their picks in this draft and overapay for a lottery pick or whatever... It's all good, they're in a comfortable position and don't HAVE to make a move for the sake of it, but only if they REALLY believe that's worth it, just like next year and the following ones... Not only they don't have, but they shouldn't and stay smart and wise, focusing on players value, independently of their mass of picks...

No one said that. We were talking about not going into next year’s draft with three FRPs. It’s a weak bargaining position.

[rascal]

The value of most of these picks is highest now.

All these picks will lose value if they fall into the 20's or never convey into a first round pick so there is a cost for not using the picks in trades now while they still hold the possibility of hitting their max value.

[scott]

The value of most of these picks is highest now.

All these picks will lose value if they fall into the 20's or never convey into a first round pick so there is a cost for not using the picks in trades now while they still hold the possibility of hitting their max value.

100% - the “unknown” tends to create an overvaluation, because typically as more is known about anything, the less likely it becomes that the absolute best case scenario will ultimately be what happens.

However, that can work in reverse under some circumstances - the CHA pick may increase in value as more becomes known - specifically if it starts to look like CHA will compete for a playoff spot.

[spurraider21]

while i think Scoot was BPA at #2, Miller is the more natural fit for Charlotte and probably has a higher floor as a rookie. assuming they bring top RFAs Miles Bridges and PJ Washington back, i like the odds of the FRP conveying

Lamelo Ball - Amari Bailey
Terry Rozier - Nick Smith
Brandon Miller - Gordon Hayward
Miles Bridges - PJ Washington
Mark Williams - James Nnaji

[Davidicus]

Very interested to see how FA and next season shakes out for Toronto

[SpursFan86]

while i think Scoot was BPA at #2, Miller is the more natural fit for Charlotte and probably has a higher floor as a rookie. assuming they bring top RFAs Miles Bridges and PJ Washington back, i like the odds of the FRP conveying

Lamelo Ball - Amari Bailey
Terry Rozier - Nick Smith
Brandon Miller - Gordon Hayward
Miles Bridges - PJ Washington
Mark Williams - James Nnaji

Was thinking the same thing. Miller has the higher floor and will be a better player than Scoot in year 1 IMO, and the rest of their draft was solid as well. I’m now fairly optimistic that pick will convey in 2024.

[spurraider21]

Very interested to see how FA and next season shakes out for Toronto
even if toronto gets plucked apart and manages to lose both Poeltl and Vanvleet, the protections are light enough (only top 6) that the pick probably still conveys in that scenario barring catastrophic injuries

[JPB]

even if toronto gets plucked apart and manages to lose both Poeltl and Vanvleet, the protections are light enough (only top 6) that the pick probably still conveys in that scenario barring catastrophic injuries

Unless they decide to badly tank.

[spurraider21]

Unless they decide to badly tank.
yeah. but even then, its top 6 protected for 3 years

[TD 21]

while i think Scoot was BPA at #2, Miller is the more natural fit for Charlotte and probably has a higher floor as a rookie. assuming they bring top RFAs Miles Bridges and PJ Washington back, i like the odds of the FRP conveying

Lamelo Ball - Amari Bailey
Terry Rozier - Nick Smith
Brandon Miller - Gordon Hayward
Miles Bridges - PJ Washington
Mark Williams - James Nnaji

Smith Jr. (supposedly interested in retaining), Martin and Richards are far more likely to be in the rotation than Bailey, Smith and Nnaji.

If they can't trade Hayward, I wonder whether their cheap asses lose Washington Jr, despite their supposed interest in retaining.

[Maddog]

John Collins form Atlanta sent to Jazz in Salary Dump

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/06/hawks-trading-john-collins-to-jazz.html

[Excessive Egotist]

The most valuable picks are the ATL picks. And then, maybe, the Boston swap. I suspect the Spurs will win 35-38 games this season, so I don't anticipate their own '24 is super valuable, especially given the quality of the draft.

The '24 draft is shit. The '25 draft is not supposed to be very good, but who knows. Or roster space is tight for a couple years. In short, I'm hopeful the Chicago and Toronto picks don't convey until '26. And I'd love to see the Spurs somehow pick up another unprotected '26 pick. The top of the '26 draft is fantastic. From a cap standpoint, getting our second definite young max player that summer would be awesome because the max won't come until 2030.

[exstatic]

The most valuable picks are the ATL picks. And then, maybe, the Boston swap. I suspect the Spurs will win 35-38 games this season, so I don't anticipate their own '24 is super valuable, especially given the quality of the draft.

The '24 draft is shit. The '25 draft is not supposed to be very good, but who knows. Or roster space is tight for a couple years. In short, I'm hopeful the Chicago and Toronto picks don't convey until '26. And I'd love to see the Spurs somehow pick up another unprotected '26 pick. The top of the '26 draft is fantastic. From a cap standpoint, getting our second definite young max player that summer would be awesome because the max won't come until 2030.

You don't know either of those things. You're taking the fact that there's no clear generational player at the top, and judging the whole draft by that. The fact is, you won't know what the 2024 draft even is until 2026, two years out.

[scott]

Still definitely have concerns about that CHA pick conveying, no matter how well we may think CHA did in the draft. It looks like a promising roster, but also looks like a roster that could completely be in disarray and never figure out how to play with one another. This is obviously the first pick that we should be looking to use in a trade.

The TOR pick is almost lock to convey, zero worries there. Even if TOR goes hard tank, finishing with a Top 6 pick 3-straight years requires a DET/HOU level commitment to ineptitude

[Mr. Body]

Still definitely have concerns about that CHA pick conveying, no matter how well we may think CHA did in the draft. It looks like a promising roster, but also looks like a roster that could completely be in disarray and never figure out how to play with one another. This is obviously the first pick that we should be looking to use in a trade.

The TOR pick is almost lock to convey, zero worries there. Even if TOR goes hard tank, finishing with a Top 6 pick 3-straight years requires a DET/HOU level commitment to ineptitude

The Eastern Conference is more difficult thatn the WC to me. Only the Nets are likely to tumble from the postseason, and possibly Atlanta. The Knicks you're never sure about. The Heat was only an 8th seed with a 44-38 record. The Raptors and Bulls were at .500 or just below. Historically those were more than fine to get an Eastern Conference team into the playoffs.

Western Conference? I wouldn't bat an eye if most any playoff team this last year didn't make it next year, not even Denver.

So yeah, I don't think it's a sure thing the Hornets make it in. They did look much better with Mark Williams, but it's still a young team whose talent doesn't exactly blow you away.

[spurraider21]

we might need to hang onto one of these picks to get off the Tre Jones contract in 1-2 years tbh

[Mr. Body]

we might need to hang onto one of these picks to get off the Tre Jones contract in 1-2 years tbh

lol wut

[Excessive Egotist]

I don't think it will happen, but if Portland goes for Draymond, I'd take back Nurkic and (at least) their '26 in a cap dump so they can free the necessary space.

[spurraider21]

1674836211033346049

https://media.tenor.com/kbQv5cIBq8IAAAAM/the-office-steve-carell.gif

[timvp]

That 2024 Raptors first round pick looking juicy right now :hungry:

[Ariel]

That 2024 Raptors first round pick looking juicy right now :hungry:
But Charlotte's stock is free falling... :cry

[rascal]

But Charlotte's stock is free falling... :cry

Charlotte's pick will convey into two future 2nds which will make the Spurs very happy.

[Mr. Body]

Charlotte will be better than last year. Mark Williams raises their floor quite a bit.

[slick'81]

Charlotte's pick will convey into two future 2nds which will make the Spurs very happy.

master plan,tbh

[Kurik]

Spurs collecting second round picks like a Gacha game.

[buttsR4rebounding]

SPURS SECOND ROUND PICK STORE
We have the Wright pick for you!!!!!!

[exstatic]

Charlotte will be better than last year. Mark Williams raises their floor quite a bit.

They have him and Miller added to a 43 win team from year before last. I don’t understand why peeps are so down on the pick.

[scott]

This came up in another thread, and I had been thinking of starting a thread ranking the Spurs future picks, but I'm not as illustrious as some of the other posters on this board and I wasn't sure anyone cared. But since it came up...

Here is how I would rank all of our yet-to-be-taken FRPs, WITHOUT fully considering the time value of picks (which I think is very real. A pick this year is worth more than a pick next year with equal protections and so on), though I did factor in some time element. What I didn't consider is trying to crystal ball how good teams will be in the future. So for now, a Spurs unprotected FRP is worth more than a ATL unprotected FRP because the Spurs are currently a lotto team and ATL is currently a play-in team. I only went out to 2028.

1. 2023 Spurs FRP (duh. It's #1 overall)
2. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

Aside from perhaps some shuffling based on time value of picks, would you rank these any differently?

Updated for the Bullock trade and the fact that we no longer have a 2023 FRP (we used it on Wemby)


1. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
2. 2030 Spurs FRP w/ DAL pick Swap (placed above the 2028 because that one has a Top 1 protection on the Swap)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

[spurraider21]

Updated for the Bullock trade and the fact that we no longer have a 2023 FRP (we used it on Wemby)


1. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
2. 2030 Spurs FRP w/ DAL pick Swap (placed above the 2028 because that one has a Top 1 protection on the Swap)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
10. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
11. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)
might as well add the spurs 2029 FRP to the list since we're already pushing out to 2030 picks

[joeyjfive]

They have him and Miller added to a 43 win team from year before last. I don’t understand why peeps are so down on the pick.

Bridges too. I’m expecting them to make the playoffs this year barring injuries.

[scott]

might as well add the spurs 2029 FRP to the list since we're already pushing out to 2030 picks

1. 2026 Spurs FRP w/ ATL pick Swap (this is the most valuable because it has the added benefit of being able to be high based on the outcome of two teams, not just one)
2. 2030 Spurs FRP w/ DAL pick Swap (placed above the 2028 because that one has a Top 1 protection on the Swap)
3. 2028 Spurs FRP w/ BOS pick Swap (this is slightly less valuable than the 2026 pick with the ATL swap, because BOS's swap is protected for the #1 overall pick)
4. 2024 Spurs FRP
5. 2025 Spurs FRP
6. 2025 Hawks FRP
7. 2027 Spurs FRP
8. 2027 Hawks FRP
9. 2029 Spurs FRP
10. 2024 Raptors FRP (Top 6 protected)
11. 2025 Bull FRP (Top 10 Protected)
12. 2024 Hornets FRP (Lotto Protected)

Good call, updated. If we were including time value, I might actually push the 2029 Spurs FRP below the 2024 Raptors FRP - but my initial caveat is that I did not really fully factor in time value other than for obvious situations.

[couchman]

I understand that you're not adding time value, but I think you should consider it.
That 2024 Raptors FRP looks more valuable to me right now than the 2027 and 2029 Spurs FRPs.

[scott]

I understand that you're not adding time value, but I think you should consider it.
That 2024 Raptors FRP looks more valuable to me right now than the 2027 and 2029 Spurs FRPs.

I hear ya, and can definitely see the case for that... I just haven't put enough time into to thinking of some definitive logic based on market data for time value. The NFL it is a lot easier, because you see a lot of trades to move back a round in exchange for future picks, but you really don't see that in the NBA (largely because the difference between the first and second rounds are much more significant than in the NFL).