Dean on Draft talks Wemby, Zion, Young

[Seventyniner]

https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/how-should-elite-prospects-with-atypical

The key part:


He is clearly the correct choice at #1 overall this year, but the generational hype is overblown. It is ridiculous to put him on the level of LeBron James or Luka Doncic (https://deanondraft.com/2017/02/03/is-luka-doncic-the-best-prospect-ever/) who fit traditional star molds. And if there was an Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Jaren Jackson Jr., or Evan Mobley tier prospect on the board he may not be the correct choice.

The Spurs say they are not listening to Wemby offers, and that could be a mistake if a team is willing to gouge themselves to trade for the pick.If they could get Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero (https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/1668703642394796040?s=20) from Orlando, that is a deal that would be worth pursuing. Especially if they can sneak in a Jalen Suggs on the side.


...

It may be a scary proposition to potentially trade the next Kareem for what may never amount to more than an elite role player and empty calories volume scorer. But it should be at least as scary to pass up a possibly elite star wing duo to lock into the next Greg Oden or Ralph Sampson.


I don't agree with him that trading Wemby should even be on the table, but it's good to get a contrarian perspective.

[Robz4000]

That's kinda how I feel, but if the best offer is Banchero/Wagner I'll roll the dice on Wemby tbh.

[scott]

This is definitely a contrarian perspective, but I've been thinking a little bit as well how I don't think Wemby is the same level of prospect as Duncan or Lebron. While Wemby's ceiling may be just as high as TOP 5 PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF THE SPORT (which is what Lebron and Duncan are), I think he carries with him a considerably lower floor than either of those two. I'd say his floor may even be under other #1s from very recent like Banchero, to further back like Kyrie & Dwight Howard, to WAY back like AI, Chris Webber, Shaq. While none of these guys present the GAME CHANGING UPSIDE that Wemby does, they all had higher floors (and I'd say Shaq and maybe even AI were game-changing in their own right).

[spursparker9]

Let's just say the Lottery winner is forced to take best big.

If it doesn't work out due to injuries, no one is at fault.
If the winner did not take the best big and he plays for other team and blossomed, it will be very painful

[Mr. Body]

If the idea is Wembanyama needs to be traded off because he'll get hurt, that's one thing. He will get hurt. The team needs to plan how to play with and without him. But this isn't Zion, who is more interested in inhaling food and fucking porn stars than staying in shape. You don't trade a great talent because he may get injured in the future.

If the idea is that Wembanyama needs to be traded because we've never seen this player before, that don't make no goddamn sense. This is the sort of place where Dean messes up. Where he misses on guys like Jaylen Williams. If he doesn't get the stats, he can't see anything.

I would draft Victor Wembanyama on defensive upside alone. His defense is so potentially game-changing, it's incredible by itself. A super-mobile, quick, extremely long shotblocker and guy who can stuff perimeter action on length. And then you add offensive upside. Banchero and Wagner are good, but each caps out at a certain point well below Vic's ceiling.

[baseline bum]

This is definitely a contrarian perspective, but I've been thinking a little bit as well how I don't think Wemby is the same level of prospect as Duncan or Lebron. While Wemby's ceiling may be just as high as TOP 5 PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF THE SPORT (which is what Lebron and Duncan are), I think he carries with him a considerably lower floor than either of those two. I'd say his floor may even be under other #1s from very recent like Banchero, to further back like Kyrie & Dwight Howard, to WAY back like AI, Chris Webber, Shaq. While none of these guys present the GAME CHANGING UPSIDE that Wemby does, they all had higher floors (and I'd say Shaq and maybe even AI were game-changing in their own right).

My worry about Victor isn't his floor as a player; if he's healthy he's going to be a top 5 MVP candidate for years. He's an S-Tier defensive presence, he can run the floor like a SF, the fact that he shoots in the 80s from the FT line makes me think he'll become a solid three point shooter in the NBA, can handle the ball, is athletic as hell, looks to be a good teammate, shows a really strong work ethic, and is producing results playing against men and not kids in the NCAA. My worry about Victor, and it's a significant worry, is that stress fracture he had in his fibula in 2020. That's the thing that could keep him from being a Hall of Famer. But he's a total package.

[baseline bum]

That's kinda how I feel, but if the best offer is Banchero/Wagner I'll roll the dice on Wemby tbh.

It would have to be Giannis and Jrue Holiday. In other words, an offer that is guaranteed to make the Spurs a title contender right now.

[Robz4000]

It would have to be Giannis and Jrue Holiday. In other words, an offer that is guaranteed to make the Spurs a title contender right now.

Only player I'd do it for straight up is Jokic tbh. That being said, Spurs have an obligation to listen to offers. You never know what some crazy package could be offered. If Orlando offered Banchero/Wagner/Suggs and unprotected picks/swaps for the next 10 years I'd consider it.

[baseline bum]

If the idea is that Wembanyama needs to be traded because we've never seen this player before, that don't make no goddamn sense. This is the sort of place where Dean messes up.


It's like saying don't draft Magic, draft Moncrief, because there's no such thing as a 6'9" point guard.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Basically - he's the right choice at 1, but there may be some packages that maybe should be considered, or not.

Definitely covering all bases there but it sounds contrarian for the sake of it. Sure, Wemby could get hurt and sure, the pressure on him is so much that simply not becoming a LeBron or Duncan level but , say a Giannis level player, would be seen by some as busting, but there's no GM who would be brave enough to entertain trading the pick even for a great package. What would Banchero, Wagner and some Orlando picks get you? An Orlando type future? No thanks.

Human psychology doesn't work like that. We're not computers, we're led by emotions and hope. No GM/FO will be fired or criticized for picking Wemby, but they might be fired on the spot if they trade him and he's good right away without even taking into account what might happen with him 5 years down the road.

[Robz4000]

Basically - he's the right choice at 1, but there may be some packages that maybe should be considered, or not.

Definitely covering all bases there but it sounds contrarian for the sake of it. Sure, Wemby could get hurt and sure, the pressure on him is so much that simply not becoming a LeBron or Duncan level but , say a Giannis level player, would be seen by some as busting, but there's no GM who would be brave enough to entertain trading the pick even for a great package. What would Banchero, Wagner and some Orlando picks get you? An Orlando type future? No thanks.

Human psychology doesn't work like that. We're not computers, we're led by emotions and hope. No GM/FO will be fired or criticized for picking Wemby, but they might be fired on the spot if they trade him and he's good right away without even taking into account what might happen with him 5 years down the road.

Eh, Orlando sucks because they have poor management. Give the Spurs those assets and they're title contenders in a few years. If Wemby pans out they're title favorites in a few years for the next decade-plus.

[Uriel]

And if there was an Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Jaren Jackson Jr., or Evan Mobley tier prospect on the board he may not be the correct choice.
WTF. :lol Some people like to give contrarian takes just because it makes them look smart. But this is just plain ridiculous.

[Uriel]

I'm a huge fan of both Paolo and Franz. In fact, they were two of the players I coveted most in the past two drafts. But I would never trade Wemby for them. Not even if you threw in Jalen Suggs. :lol

[spurraider21]

Imagine saying the Cavs should have listened to trades for Lebron and suggesting that Yao and Steve Francis was worth listening to. And maybe if they threw it cuttino Mobley!

[Fireball]

yeah there are risks but I wanna see how this plays out ...

[BatManu20]

My worry about Victor isn't his floor as a player; if he's healthy he's going to be a top 5 MVP candidate for years. He's an S-Tier defensive presence, he can run the floor like a SF, the fact that he shoots in the 80s from the FT line makes me think he'll become a solid three point shooter in the NBA, can handle the ball, is athletic as hell, looks to be a good teammate, shows a really strong work ethic, and is producing results playing against men and not kids in the NCAA. My worry about Victor, and it's a significant worry, is that stress fracture he had in his fibula in 2020. That's the thing that could keep him from being a Hall of Famer. But he's a total package.

Same. Potential injuries are the only thing holding this kid back from being a HOF’er. But those boats for feet that he has do make me nervous. Long ass bones like that are so much more susceptible to injury. We’ve seen it countless times. Scares me tbh. I know he takes great care of them, but sometimes it doesn’t matter. Hopefully he proves me wrong though.

1629890413451509762

[Teamduncan21]

At a high level. Yes. There will be instances where we trade the pick. Like if maybe Denver offered jokic.
But in reality we won't get jokic. That's nonsense.
Paolo banchero trade doesn't make sense. What if Paolo gets injured?
So in reality. We get a trade where we may actually get some good value. But no one will offer that.
Some will offer bad value. But we shouldn't take bad value.

[RC_Drunkford]

https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/how-should-elite-prospects-with-atypical

The key part:



I don't agree with him that trading Wemby should even be on the table, but it's good to get a contrarian perspective.

absolutely idiotic take

[Mr. Body]

By this logic, Orlando would be wrong to trade for him.

[mo7888]

It's just clickbait.... nobody should take Dean seriously.... he there for entertainment...not intelligence..

[CGD]

But does he ever say why? Or is he just going of vibes and his person opinion. im
Always willing to hear a good reasoned argument, but without that why is this even considered serious journalism or analysis?

[exstatic]

But does he ever say why? Or is he just going of vibes and his person opinion. im
Always willing to hear a good reasoned argument, but without that why is this even considered serious journalism or analysis?

He’s not a journalist, he’s a high stakes bettor who uses advanced stats. He just happens to write some of it up, online.

[Mr. Body]

But does he ever say why? Or is he just going of vibes and his person opinion. im
Always willing to hear a good reasoned argument, but without that why is this even considered serious journalism or analysis?

It's the usual "Tall players don't last long." He says there's a cap of longetivity for tall players at 7'2". His reasonining for this? Kareem Abdul-Jabaar did this. Like, if Kareem was two inches taller, he'd set the cap there.

Then he says the Spurs should trade him, but doesn't chide other teams for trying to trade for him, which doesn't make sense. It's illogical. He's basically saying no one should take Wembanyama.

[Atl Spur]

Not Taking Wemby isn’t a discussion….. moving on

[Dverde]

Sometimes I wish the Spurs got the second pick and could get a safer prospect, but Wemby is worth the risk. If he gets hurt or can’t last, we’ll just start rebuilding again. That is more what typically happens with NBA teams, we were just spoiled with Duncan era and a front office that regularly ignored opportunities to break up the big three.

[rankingtear]

He is just very high on Franz for some reason and the whole high floor mantra. He knows what he is doing with these hot takes.

[baseline bum]

Basically - he's the right choice at 1, but there may be some packages that maybe should be considered, or not.

Definitely covering all bases there but it sounds contrarian for the sake of it. Sure, Wemby could get hurt and sure, the pressure on him is so much that simply not becoming a LeBron or Duncan level but , say a Giannis level player, would be seen by some as busting, but there's no GM who would be brave enough to entertain trading the pick even for a great package. What would Banchero, Wagner and some Orlando picks get you? An Orlando type future? No thanks.

Human psychology doesn't work like that. We're not computers, we're led by emotions and hope. No GM/FO will be fired or criticized for picking Wemby, but they might be fired on the spot if they trade him and he's good right away without even taking into account what might happen with him 5 years down the road.

Two MVPs, seven allstars, and a title by 28 would be awesome, no way in hell I'd be disappointed with that.

[exstatic]

He is just very high on Franz for some reason and the whole high floor mantra. He knows what he is doing with these hot takes.

He’s not wrong on Franz. His high floor mantra is based on his premise that the term ‘floor’ is misused as an interchangeable term for ‘older’, and when of the mislabeled players busts, teams think they should just 100% draft for high ceiling, regardless of the player’s Grand Canyon depth floor.

[JPB]

I remember reading that Dean take a few months ago already...And it was already looking nonsensical a few months ago... The more I read from that guy, the less I wanna read.

I don't even know if he"s a contrarian (there's certinaly a lot of that, and certainy a lot of "I'm so much smarter than the mass") but what I 'm sure of is that he often has absolutely no idea of what he's talking about with absolutely terrible, uneducated takes...

What's ridiculous is saying it's ridiculous to say Wemby could be a generational player... Did he even watch him play? Players, coaches, fans, journalists all the say the same and there's some massive substance to that... What are even his arguments? None. NOBODY is trading Wemby and the simple fact he sees that as a possibility tells about his cluelessness.

Hell, ESPN made an article a couple weeks ago about fantasy Wemby trades, starting by saying "of couse, no way it happens".

[slick'81]

Dont be afraid of success. Just draft yama and theyll be no drama

[CorrectCrusader]

https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/how-should-elite-prospects-with-atypical

The key part:



I don't agree with him that trading Wemby should even be on the table, but it's good to get a contrarian perspective.

He's insane. Wemby is absolutely generational.

[Mr. Body]

Dean isn't useless, or really meaning this for entertainment. He's just completely reduced to stats and analytics. He cannot register the proverbial black swan event because his models don't see it.

[exstatic]

Dean isn't useless, or really meaning this for entertainment. He's just completely reduced to stats and analytics. He cannot register the proverbial black swan event because his models don't see it.

This forum, or a large part of it should love him, because he had Sengun as his #5 in that draft.

[SpursFan86]

Arguing that a trade for a huge haul of promising players and picks is a good idea is one thing…but how in the hell can anyone say that he’s not a generational prospect and compare him to Greg Oden or Ralph Sampson? Neither of those guys were as polished and skilled as Victor is at 19 years old. How is he not generational? What other guys have we ever seen that are similar to him?

Just a really shitty take tbh :lol

[TDomination]

The only way i trade the wemby pick is for a 23 year old Tim Duncan.
Does anyone have a 23 year old Tim Duncan on their roster? No? Then welcome to San Antonio Wemby

[baseline bum]

Arguing that a trade for a huge haul of promising players and picks is a good idea is one thing…but how in the hell can anyone say that he’s not a generational prospect and compare him to Greg Oden or Ralph Sampson? Neither of those guys were as polished and skilled as Victor is at 19 years old. How is he not generational? What other guys have we ever seen that are similar to him?

Just a really shitty take tbh :lol

Oden was 100% a generational prospect. He was like LeBron in the sense that people who followed the sport knew who he was back when he was 15-16. He just got screwed by his knees.

[Mr. Body]

Oden was 100% a generational prospect. He was like LeBron in the sense that people who followed the sport knew who he was back when he was 15-16. He just got screwed by his knees.

Oden played in the NCAA championship with Al Horford, Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, and teammate Michael Conley and he was by far the best player on the court.

[lmbebo]

This goes back to when Duncan was drafted. Celtics offered 2 lotto picks (3 and 6) + more I think for the right to draft Duncan. Remember Spurs were blasted for not doing the deal to get more pieces to build around Robinson.

[rjv]

This goes back to when Duncan was drafted. Celtics offered 2 lotto picks (3 and 6) + more I think for the right to draft Duncan. Remember Spurs were blasted for not doing the deal to get more pieces to build around Robinson.


well, the spurs did eventually land ron mercer (the 3rd pick in that draft) :lol

[baseline bum]

Same. Potential injuries are the only thing holding this kid back from being a HOF’er. But those boats for feet that he has do make me nervous. Long ass bones like that are so much more susceptible to injury. We’ve seen it countless times. Scares me tbh. I know he takes great care of them, but sometimes it doesn’t matter. Hopefully he proves me wrong though.

1629890413451509762

Shaq's size 22

[Harry Callahan]

Arguing that a trade for a huge haul of promising players and picks is a good idea is one thing…but how in the hell can anyone say that he’s not a generational prospect and compare him to Greg Oden or Ralph Sampson? Neither of those guys were as polished and skilled as Victor is at 19 years old. How is he not generational? What other guys have we ever seen that are similar to him?

Just a really shitty take tbh :lol

Sampson was 23 years old as a rookie - he was really good, but the Rockets sucked his first year - they had the third pick in 83 as well - Rodney McCray from Louisville. They lost Moses Malone and got McCray, Sampson, and Hakeem (in 84). It worked out for Houston but Moses Malone was an absolute beast as a player and got Philly a title year one.

I'm a bit concerned by Wemby's dimensions, but you are only using one draft pick for him - an amazing prospect. I hope he can bulk up a bit, but not too much. The guy will be a work in process, though. NOT a Duncan - two decades of excellence starting day one is just about impossible to match.

[Larry O]

Haters want to be hating. The Spurs have invested in Wemby for some time now and they know what they are doing. Unfortunately, injuries happen in every sport, so it's a gamble every team has to take with their player investment. Wemby is in good hands. GSG!!!

[buttsR4rebounding]

This goes back to when Duncan was drafted. Celtics offered 2 lotto picks (3 and 6) + more I think for the right to draft Duncan. Remember Spurs were blasted for not doing the deal to get more pieces to build around Robinson.

I don't remember anyone blasting the Spurs except Boston lovers and they were mainly whining that they had the best odds and didn't get the prize.

[JohnnyMax]

This Dean guy is from Greece.

https://deanondraft.com/about/

January 30, 2018 at 10:00 pm jimmy said:

hey, where in greece is your family from? my grandma’s side is demakis – was curious if we were cousins. tried to dm u on Twitter (@dm1524) but u don’t accept dms from people u don’t follow. also big nba fan (how i stumbled on ur content)

Here's a picture of Dean

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1149873903558373376/gBS1Fxl2_400x400.jpg

This Dean guy is motivated by racism.

He loves white players that represent foreign white countries such as Serbia and Slovenia but hates Black players that represent foreign white countries like Canada and Greece.

https://deanondraft.com/2016/11/29/andrew-wiggins-is-a-bust/

Andrew Wiggins is a Bust

The value of a #1 pick lies in the star potential of the player chosen, and thus far Wiggins has shown close to zero star upside. It is time to stop treating Wiggins as a potential star– at this point he is a just a super athlete who has a sliver of NBA upside that will not be franchise changing. Even if he may go on to have a decent career, given his draft hype and #1 overall selection it is not too soon to say that Andrew Wiggins is officially a bust.

https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/01/the-downside-of-upside/

But what about Giannis?

Once in a while a mystery box prospect will grow two inches, fill out from a skinny kid into an explosive tank, and make major leaps in his game every season and become Giannis. But it may be another 100+ drafts before we see another young + toolsy mystery box succeed like him. Much more commonly you end up with either a bust, or a somewhat useful but flawed player who the team continues to over-invest in.

And as great as it is to hit on a Giannis in the mid-1st, it is even better to land a Nikola Jokic in the mid-2nd. Jokic required a much less valuable pick, and based on pre-draft info he clearly had a better median outcome than Giannis.

Jokic slid a full round later than Giannis due to his perceived lack of upside in spite of having excellent performance as a teenager in the Adriatic League, while Giannis struggled in his small samples of lower Greek Divisions. Yet they have had similarly valuable NBA careers.

Given the superior cost efficiency of Jokic and that no mystery box has provided close to the value of Giannis, it is difficult to argue that pure upside swings actually offer more upside than perceived low upside players who are clearly good.

Notice he tries to hide his racism behind Paulo Banchero who's Italian dad was born in America.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/basketball/news-i-m-planning-play-italian-national-team-paolo-banchero-reveals-intention-represent-italy-united-states

Paolo Banchero has not played for the United States in any youth setup. Banchero, who obtained an Italian passport two years ago, is eligible to play for Italy. He was even selected to the country's 24-man squad for the EuroBasket qualification window in November 2020.

In an appearance on "The Young Person Basketball Podcast with R.J. Hampton," Banchero discussed his Italian heritage. The Orlando Magic rookie explained that his great-great-grandfather and great-grandfather were from Italy, while his grandfather and father were born and raised in Seattle.

[scott]

Basing any analysis upon 20/20 hindsight on Giannis and Jokic is comical, but he is right that high floor players are overlooked too often (Derrick White, pick #29 is another good example). Spurs can certainly be a team who capitalizes on this mistakes of rivals in this regard.

[exstatic]

Basing any analysis upon 20/20 hindsight on Giannis and Jokic is comical, but he is right that high floor players are overlooked too often (Derrick White, pick #29 is another good example). Spurs can certainly be a team who capitalizes on this mistakes of rivals in this regard.

To be fair, it wasn't ALL hindsight. He had Jokic at #16 on his big board.


16. Nikola Jokic: 6’11” C, Serbia, 19.4 yrs. DX: 42, ESPN: 31
His poor athleticism and speed make it fair to take his stats with a grain of salt, but based on his stats he appears to have a shot of becoming the best passing big man of all-time. That gives him a world of intrigue to me on its own.

[SpursFan86]

Oden was 100% a generational prospect. He was like LeBron in the sense that people who followed the sport knew who he was back when he was 15-16. He just got screwed by his knees.

That’s fair - my comment was less about Oden/Sampson being or not being generational prospects and more about the uniqueness of Victor. Whether he pans out or not, he’s generational. How often do 7’4” 19 year-olds with the skills that Victor possesses come into the league? He’s the first we’ve ever seen in 50+ years of NBA basketball…if that’s not generational then what the hell is? :lol

[spurraider21]

Oden was 100% a generational prospect. He was like LeBron in the sense that people who followed the sport knew who he was back when he was 15-16. He just got screwed by his knees.
everyone knew durant was going to be awesome, too. but oden was still the consensus top pick because he was going to be THAT good.

[Mugen]

Oden flaming out due to injuries was such a bummer, one of my favorite prospects in the last 20 years. If any other team besides Portland drafted him, we'd be talking about his HOF career coming to an end soon tbh :lol

[The Truth #6]

Dean’s emphasis appears to be on value so I take his opinion higher on predicting quality role players. Despite what he says in that article, prioritizing winning a championship is actually the goal, though there are different ways to build a team, typically correlated with the owner’s whims and impulsivity.

Anyway. I like reading him and often see merit in what he says, but he still feels like a douche typically.

[rjv]

that's a pretty wide domain that dean gave himself-wemby could be either the next kareem or the next oden/sampson.

[offset formation]

Only downside to drafting Wemby is knowing the Spurs will err on the side of caution, as they absolutely should. What this means though is that each time he has foot pain or a rolled ankle, or a calf strain, or bumps a knee, he's likely to be held out for extended periods. And so, he likely will miss extended periods of games pretty much yearly. And if it happens around the playoffs, then we simply won't shoot our load that year.

And if it's a lisfranc or other broken bone or significant foot injury situation (which is obviously the concern with him), kiss a year or more away.

He's a no-brainer selection but given his freakish body sizeand Spurs MO on injury management, these are the risks and ramifications of taking him. Of course the upside is multiple rings.

[JPB]

Only downside to drafting Wemby is knowing the Spurs will err on the side of caution, as they absolutely should. What this means though is that each time he has foot pain or a rolled ankle, or a calf strain, or bumps a knee, he's likely to be held out for extended periods. And so, he likely will miss extended periods of games pretty much yearly. And if it happens around the playoffs, then we simply won't shoot our load that year.

And if it's a lisfranc or other broken bone or significant foot injury situation (which is obviously the concern with him), kiss a year or more away.

He's a no-brainer selection but given his freakish body sizeand Spurs MO on injury management, these are the risks and ramifications of taking him. Of course the upside is multiple rings.

We have no more idea how his health will go than with any other player. He's played 60 games this year without any real injury and he might end up his career with less issues than many guards or wings... We can't and shouldn't assume anything and spurs will be as careful with him that they've been with Tim.

[exstatic]

Dean’s emphasis appears to be on value so I take his opinion higher on predicting quality role players. Despite what he says in that article, prioritizing winning a championship is actually the goal, though there are different ways to build a team, typically correlated with the owner’s whims and impulsivity.

Anyway. I like reading him and often see merit in what he says, but he still feels like a douche typically.

He can be a whack a doodle, but that’s one of the things I like about him. He isn’t like almost a every other mock draft, slurping up the hype with a giant spoon, and then collectively vomiting out nearly identical lists.

[The Truth #6]

He can be a whack a doodle, but that’s one of the things I like about him. He isn’t like almost a every other mock draft, slurping up the hype with a giant spoon, and then collectively vomiting out nearly identical lists.

Yeah, I agree in general. I liked his article about Scoot and athleticism.

[Obstructed_View]

WTF. :lol Some people like to give contrarian takes just because it makes them look smart. But this is just plain ridiculous.

I wouldn't trade Wembanyama for a 19 year old Embiid or AD, knowing what they are gonna produce.

[Obstructed_View]

Only downside to drafting Wemby is knowing the Spurs will err on the side of caution, as they absolutely should. What this means though is that each time he has foot pain or a rolled ankle, or a calf strain, or bumps a knee, he's likely to be held out for extended periods. And so, he likely will miss extended periods of games pretty much yearly. And if it happens around the playoffs, then we simply won't shoot our load that year.

And if it's a lisfranc or other broken bone or significant foot injury situation (which is obviously the concern with him), kiss a year or more away.

He's a no-brainer selection but given his freakish body sizeand Spurs MO on injury management, these are the risks and ramifications of taking him. Of course the upside is multiple rings.
Your last sentence is the point. Timmy was sat out the playoffs in 2000 when he maybe could have gone. If not for Juwan Howard, the Spurs ring in 2001 with a healthy Duncan.

[kace]

there's no doubt that there has been a big hype with Victor since the beginning of this season, and even before. and i have to admit that i was a little bit doubtful too mainly because at this time Victor didn't play a lot at a professional level and i found the hype could be a little bit too much and annoying.

but, well, it seems difficult to live up to the hype more that Wemby did this year.

- He was named the best player, defensive player and well, any others awards there were in the french league, and led his team, a previous bad team, to the finals where they were beaten by one of the best european teams this season.

- He was dominant and very succesful for his debut with the french national team, one of the best selection of the world.

- He destroyed the opposition in his two games in the USA against the G league team and other prospects

- He improved dramatically his game and his leadership in every aspect

- He played all the games without any injury.

well, i guess there are some good reasons to this hype now

[R. DeMurre]

I think overall Dean is a good analyst, and is right more often than he's wrong, and more often than most of the mock draft guys. He's definitely got the contrarian angle and knows what to say to get people riled up, but going over his many takes over the years, I think he takes a generally smart approach and veers independently away from the trends more than most. Last year he had Sochan, Tari Eason, and Walker Kessler higher than most, and he was right about them. It's interesting to me that a few months ago, lots of people on spurstalk were talking about the injury angle/body type with Wembanyama, but now that he's the pick, a good percentage of those voices have gone quiet and are kind of circling the wagons around him in almost a parental way, or at least have become more cheerleaders than objective viewers. I think one thing Dean is pretty good at is separating the fan angle and the attempt at the objective angle-- that's the one pitfall that lots of people (extreme fans especially) have in the scouting process.

[The Truth #6]

I think there’s definitely a middle ground talking about Victor’s health concerns, but no way would I take Jaren Jackson Jr. over him, for example.

[ambchang]

If, as a draft pick, Wemby isn't on the level as Doncic, why was Doncic not picked first? Hell, why was he traded for :lol Tr:lole :lol?

[R. DeMurre]

Yeah, and I think the analysis of tall players gets skewed to "tall players who were stars." Becoming a star is difficult in and of itself, so adding to that the necessity of being durable and tall makes it a low percentage bet regardless. Whether they became great shouldn't play into it if they were playing lots of minutes without getting injured. Shawn Bradley is the best example-- he wasn't a star, but he was a decent player who was actually taller than Wembanyama, and was a relative Iron Man in terms of durability-- he had two seasons where he played all 82 games, one where he played 81, and then a 79 and a 77 game year. That would be impressive durability for a 6'3" PG.

[scott]

Can post the article later if someone else doesn’t, but Bill Simmon’s released his trade valued for 2023 and ranks Wemby already as the 4th most valuable asset in the league (behind Joker, Giannis and Luka) in the absolutely untouchable category

[baseline bum]

If, as a draft pick, Wemby isn't on the level as Doncic, why was Doncic not picked first? Hell, why was he traded for :lol Tr:lole :lol?

Phoenix, Sacramento, and Atlanta were morons. I don't know how you don't pick a 19 year-old with sky high potential who was the Euroleague MVP. Those three GMs should have been fired.

[exstatic]

Phoenix, Sacramento, and Atlanta were morons. I don't know how you don't pick a 19 year-old with sky high potential who was the Euroleague MVP. Those three GMs should have been fired.

TBH, Nando DeColo has been Euroleague MVP. It's kind of a mixed bag.

[rjv]

sergio rodriguez was the Euro MVP in 2014/15.

[baseline bum]

TBH, Nando DeColo has been Euroleague MVP. It's kind of a mixed bag.

At age 28. Whole different ballgame from an 18 year old doing it in a league that hates playing young NBA prospects.

[baseline bum]

sergio rodriguez was the Euro MVP in 2014/15.

Another 28 year old.

[JPB]

I think overall Dean is a good analyst, and is right more often than he's wrong, and more often than most of the mock draft guys. He's definitely got the contrarian angle and knows what to say to get people riled up, but going over his many takes over the years, I think he takes a generally smart approach and veers independently away from the trends more than most. Last year he had Sochan, Tari Eason, and Walker Kessler higher than most, and he was right about them. It's interesting to me that a few months ago, lots of people on spurstalk were talking about the injury angle/body type with Wembanyama, but now that he's the pick, a good percentage of those voices have gone quiet and are kind of circling the wagons around him in almost a parental way, or at least have become more cheerleaders than objective viewers. I think one thing Dean is pretty good at is separating the fan angle and the attempt at the objective angle-- that's the one pitfall that lots of people (extreme fans especially) have in the scouting process.

If you mention the times he was right, you gotta mention the times he was wrong, which is a lot of times. So there's as much guessing than in any other guys who are also right on some players Dean are wrong on... He's not more right than anybody else, and rather more wrong actually. But that's a typical example of the kind of contrarians who gets their validation for those times where they were right while people forget all the times they were wrong...

the thing with Dean is that he's defintely trying to make it look "smart" and make people who reads him feel smart smarter than the mass. (like conspirators do)... But truth is we're talking young prospects and there's no real "smart" way to project them. The games are here and everyone can see the same. After you scouted them, it's also about gut feeling and luck ofc... There's no magic formula or secret equation and nothing Dean can see that others couldn't, just trying that he is sometimes to hook readers more for the intellectual construction of his takes than for its real substance... Anbody a bit elaborate can do that.

His takes on Scoot are absolutely terrible, and the example of how he's trying to go agaisnt the mass in an intellectually dishonest way sometimes , picking what he needs in a few Scoot games to to fit his narractives, and totally ignoring the rest that shows the opposite. You sometimes wonder if he's not just trying to help some agents.

[rjv]

If you mention the times he was right, you gotta mention the times he was wrong, which is a lot of times. So there's as much guessing than in any other guys who are also right on some players Dean are wrong on... He's not more right than anybody else, and rather more wrong actually. But that's a typical example of the kind of contrarians who gets their validation for those times where they were right while people forget all the times they were wrong...

the thing with Dean is that he's defintely trying to make it look "smart" and make people who reads him feel smart smarter than the mass. (like conspirators do)... But truth is we're talking young prospects and there's no real "smart" way to project them. The games are here and everyone can see the same. After you scouted them, it's also about gut feeling and luck ofc... There's no magic formula or secret equation and nothing Dean can see that others couldn't, just trying that he is sometimes to hook readers more for the intellectual construction of his takes than for its real substance... Anbody a bit elaborate can do that.

His takes on Scoot are absolutely terrible, and the example of how he's trying to go agaisnt the mass in an intellectually dishonest way sometimes , picking what he needs in a few Scoot games to to fit his narractives, and totally ignoring the rest that shows the opposite. You sometimes wonder if he's not just trying to help some agents.

good point. even some of the worst ST posters get it right sometimes :lol

[R. DeMurre]

If you mention the times he was right, you gotta mention the times he was wrong, which is a lot of times. So there's as much guessing than in any other guys who are also right on some players Dean are wrong on... He's not more right than anybody else, and rather more wrong actually. But that's a typical example of the kind of contrarians who gets their validation for those times where they were right while people forget all the times they were wrong...

the thing with Dean is that he's defintely trying to make it look "smart" and make people who reads him feel smart smarter than the mass. (like conspirators do)... But truth is we're talking young prospects and there's no real "smart" way to project them. The games are here and everyone can see the same. After you scouted them, it's also about gut feeling and luck ofc... There's no magic formula or secret equation and nothing Dean can see that others couldn't, just trying that he is sometimes to hook readers more for the intellectual construction of his takes than for its real substance... Anbody a bit elaborate can do that.

His takes on Scoot are absolutely terrible, and the example of how he's trying to go agaisnt the mass in an intellectually dishonest way sometimes , picking what he needs in a few Scoot games to to fit his narractives, and totally ignoring the rest that shows the opposite. You sometimes wonder if he's not just trying to help some agents.


Of course, agreed, it's necessary to acknowledge the hits and misses. I think it ultimately is hard to rate talent evaluators because it's sort of like rating 3pt shooters-- the difference between great and good or good and average is really pretty small: 40% vs 37%, or 37% vs 34%-- and most people aren't interested in going back and evaluating the entire scope of the scouting, but instead tend to rely on a few highlights of anecdotal evidence for or against. Some famous picks are great examples-- Presti gets credit for drafting Durant with the second pick but is actually on record saying he would've picked Oden if he'd had the first pick. I think Dean has gotten into a contrarian groove now on Scoot where he's over-defending his view because so many are criticizing it and so he's decided to double down and be more demonstrative about it. It'll be a good test to look at in the coming years, no doubt. I just think Scoot has red flags that are reasonable to question, and so many of his supporters avoid those questions. I've never seen a "generational" player with the kind of impact stats that Scoot has had two years running in the G League, in every environment-- the regular season, the showcase, and exhibitions. He's a net negative player in every sample size. That's an odd statistical glitch to have for a player of his stature & reputation. It might play out that it's entirely age and situation related, but I don't think it's crazy to question it.

[MannyIsGod]

The opening take is a bad one. You win NBA titles by having a top player on the team and surrounding him by really good players. The hardest thing to come by are legit top 10 players in the NBA. It is undeniable that Wemby has a ceiling of being a top 10 player in the NBA and even if there's also a substantial chance he is injured and doesn't reach that ultimate potential the fact that he has a ceiling that high and a relatively high percentage chance of reaching it makes him INCREDIBLY valuable. There is absolutely no way you trade him for anything Orlando has because no one on Orlando is going to reach that level. There's a lot to be said about making smart draft picks as the first round goes on and picking players that have high floor and can be meaningful contributors but that is just bullshit with top lottery picks. Especially when there is talent like Wemby on the board.

[MannyIsGod]

Of course, agreed, it's necessary to acknowledge the hits and misses. I think it ultimately is hard to rate talent evaluators because it's sort of like rating 3pt shooters-- the difference between great and good or good and average is really pretty small: 40% vs 37%, or 37% vs 34%-- and most people aren't interested in going back and evaluating the entire scope of the scouting, but instead tend to rely on a few highlights of anecdotal evidence for or against. Some famous picks are great examples-- Presti gets credit for drafting Durant with the second pick but is actually on record saying he would've picked Oden if he'd had the first pick. I think Dean has gotten into a contrarian groove now on Scoot where he's over-defending his view because so many are criticizing it and so he's decided to double down and be more demonstrative about it. It'll be a good test to look at in the coming years, no doubt. I just think Scoot has red flags that are reasonable to question, and so many of his supporters avoid those questions. I've never seen a "generational" player with the kind of impact stats that Scoot has had two years running in the G League, in every environment-- the regular season, the showcase, and exhibitions. He's a net negative player in every sample size. That's an odd statistical glitch to have for a player of his stature & reputation. It might play out that it's entirely age and situation related, but I don't think it's crazy to question it.

I have never seen Scoot called a generational player.

[R. DeMurre]

I have never seen Scoot called a generational player.


I just entered "scoot henderson generational player" in the Google search box and got a bunch of them. Here's one: https://www.sportskeeda.com/basketball/rumor-nba-rumors-brian-windhorst-says-pelicans-looking-trade-zion-williamson-go-scoot-henderson#:~:text=Scoot%20Henderson%20is%20conside red%20another,ball%20after%20graduating%20high%20s chool.

I'm not debating whether he is or not, but some people definitely feel he is.

[MannyIsGod]

Also, he definitely isn't the same draft prospect as our great Tim Duncan, but lets not forget Wemby is 19. Was Tim Duncan at 19 the draft prospect Wemby is? Tim averaged less than 10 points and 10 boards with Wake Forest as a freshman. Does anyone here believe Wemby is not averaging way better than that as a Freshman in the ACC? I'm not saying he's going to be better than Timmy, but I think people are losing sight of the fact that the kid is 19 and just had an amazing year playing PROFESSIONAL basketball.

[MannyIsGod]

I just entered "scoot henderson generational player" in the Google search box and got a bunch of them. Here's one: https://www.sportskeeda.com/basketball/rumor-nba-rumors-brian-windhorst-says-pelicans-looking-trade-zion-williamson-go-scoot-henderson#:~:text=Scoot%20Henderson%20is%20conside red%20another,ball%20after%20graduating%20high%20s chool.

I'm not debating whether he is or not, but some people definitely feel he is.

I mean come on dude. Sportskeeda?

That's one step above some random dude on Twitter or Reddit.

[R. DeMurre]

Also, he definitely isn't the same draft prospect as our great Tim Duncan, but lets not forget Wemby is 19. Was Tim Duncan at 19 the draft prospect Wemby is? Tim averaged less than 10 points and 10 boards with Wake Forest as a freshman. Does anyone here believe Wemby is not averaging way better than that as a Freshman in the ACC? I'm not saying he's going to be better than Timmy, but I think people are losing sight of the fact that the kid is 19 and just had an amazing year playing PROFESSIONAL basketball.

I'm 100% pro-Wemby. I think you're confusing my stance here. I love the guy, and argued against people who earlier brought up the body type argument.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm 100% pro-Wemby. I think you're confusing my stance here. I love the guy, and argued against people who earlier brought up the body type argument.

That post wasn't directed at you but the thread in general.

[scott]

I have never seen Scoot called a generational player.

tbh, this just means you haven’t been following. This has been touted as a “two generational prospect draft” since last summer. Whether it is, or not, is for others to decide, but Scoot has definitely received that label.

[scott]

Also, he definitely isn't the same draft prospect as our great Tim Duncan, but lets not forget Wemby is 19. Was Tim Duncan at 19 the draft prospect Wemby is? Tim averaged less than 10 points and 10 boards with Wake Forest as a freshman. Does anyone here believe Wemby is not averaging way better than that as a Freshman in the ACC? I'm not saying he's going to be better than Timmy, but I think people are losing sight of the fact that the kid is 19 and just had an amazing year playing PROFESSIONAL basketball.

Agreed, but this is a function of the draft basically being the selection of the top 19 year olds these days. Timmy was such a can’t miss prospect because of the additional 3 years of data we had on him. We can’t say the same of Wemby, but this isn’t Wemby’s fault - it’s just a fact.

[baseline bum]

Can post the article later if someone else doesn’t, but Bill Simmon’s released his trade valued for 2023 and ranks Wemby already as the 4th most valuable asset in the league (behind Joker, Giannis and Luka) in the absolutely untouchable category

Just got posted to Simmons' channel


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBqW0fYNudY

[MannyIsGod]

tbh, this just means you haven’t been following. This has been touted as a “two generational prospect draft” since last summer. Whether it is, or not, is for others to decide, but Scoot has definitely received that label.


By who? If this is the case why is the best link for this some website I've never heard of in my life?

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, Scoot was labeled a generational talent, a 'can't miss, would be drafted #1 in any other draft' for a while. That's kind of foundered, but it was absolutely 100% there. I saw it as hype, whether for Ignite and G-League or otherwise.

[mo7888]

By who? If this is the case why is the best link for this some website I've never heard of in my life?

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2022/10/5/23389012/victor-wembanyama-scoot-henderson-nba-draft-2023-highlights-video-stats

There are plenty..

[Mr. Body]

The "Scoot is generational" hype was one of the first annoying things I remember when getting into this draft year in February or so. It was still widespread, message boards, everyone was repeating it. You'd get a barrage of downvotes for saying otherwise. Then it died off. Totally revisionist to claim it never happened.

[baseline bum]

The "Scoot is generational" hype was one of the first annoying things I remember when getting into this draft year in February or so. It was still widespread, message boards, everyone was repeating it. You'd get a barrage of downvotes for saying otherwise. Then it died off. Totally revisionist to claim it never happened.

Gotta say I loved what I saw out of Scoot in those two exhibition games vs Mets92 and bought into the hype then, but while Victor was having a huge season in the French league seemed like Scoot didn't do much to move the needle for Ignite. Pretty disappointing year from him with the expectations he had. Though not a total disaster like Nick Smith's freshman campaign at least.

[MannyIsGod]

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2022/10/5/23389012/victor-wembanyama-scoot-henderson-nba-draft-2023-highlights-video-stats

There are plenty..


Alright fair enough