First Round Free-Fallers the Spurs Could Pick at 33

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/free-fallers-spurs-second-round-2023-draft/

:hat

[Bruno]

A player that could/should be add to the list is Rayan Rupert:

1) His agent is the same as Wembanyama: Bouna Ndiaye.

2) He is said to be more looking at team fit instead of being drafted as high as possible
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/37757403/2023-nba-mock-draft-post-combine-pro-day-impacts-draft-class

Rupert is being selective with the teams he visits, prioritizing roster fit and strong development situations on playoff-caliber teams rather than trying to be selected as high as possible


3)While he is still high on some mock draft (#18 on ESPN), he has dropped on others (#34 on The Ringer).

[Mr. Body]

Most of these players are heavily mocked in the 1st round, including the professional mocks. Likely all of them go there. The more likely late first rounders are guys like O-Max Prosper, Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Colby Jones, Sidy Cissoko, GG Jackson, etc. It's hard to believe a team like Brooklyn won't snap up a Leonard Miller ten spots before.

That said, of these, Nick Smith, Kris Murray, and Dariq Whitehead seem most likely to drop, with Smith just as likely to go in the teens.

[BatManu20]

I don’t see any of those guys dropping into the 2nd Rnd tbh, but we’ll see. I’m hoping we trade that pick as part of a package to move back into the lottery to pick a PG. But IF we’re unable to do that and we end up staying there and keeping the pick, my guys are:

1. Amari Bailey — The #3 overall ranked high school player in the nation last year and the #1 ranked combo guard. I believe he belongs in the late 1st Rnd at worst and expect he won’t slip past there. 6’4 with a sweet lefty mid-range game who also shoots it well from 3 (38%). Was underutilized at UCLA this year playing on a team full of upperclassman, and was forced to play off-ball, but shows ability to create for others. Not a great athlete, but good enough and competes hard on the defensive end. Needs to limit turnovers, but excels in PnR and can play off-ball. Had a great showing at the combine. Would be a steal at 33 imo.

2. Colby Jones — Do-it-all Combo guard who feels like one of the Spursy-est players in this draft. Not particularly great at any one thing, but really good at everything. Smart, heady, plays defense, can get to the cup, shoots it well enough, etc. Think he goes late 1st, but if he dropped to 33, would be a huge steal.

3. Jamie Jacquez — 6’7 226 lb wing who is one of the older players in this draft at 22 years old, but he’s a really good, smart, high-IQ player who can do a little bit of everything. Best footwork of any player in this draft. Was UCLA‘s best player this season. Not a great athlete, but good enough. Plays hard on D. Good glue-guy off the bench. Needs to improve from 3, but he has a future in this league. Think he goes Late 1st.

4. Brandin Podziemski — 6’4 combo guard who can really shoot it. Smart, high-IQ player who can fill it up offensively with his smooth lefty jumper. Good passer too out of the PnR. But he’s a poor athlete, a poor defender, and is undersized, which is why he’s projected anywhere from late 1st to mid 2nd. How long he lasts in this league will depend on whether or not he can hold his own on the defensive end of the floor. Spursy type player though in terms of skill set who I think has a good chance of slipping to 33 due to his lack of size and athleticism, as well as his defense. He has the skill set to be a solid combo guard in the right system. But I think the Spurs pass on him.

5. Andre Jackson — 6’7 Swiss Army knife player who can do everything but shoot. Unlikely we take a swing because we already have Sochan who struggles with his shot. Need to surround Wemby with shooters. But this kid is a hell of a wing defender and was a key piece of UConn’s National Championship team.

5. Sidy Cissoko — Big, strong frame on this 19 year-old Frenchman at 6’7 225 lbs with a 6’10 wingspan. He’ll definitely need some time to develop, but could potentially carve out a nice 3&D role down the line. Think poor man’s Ron Artest. Decent chance he’s available at 33.

6. Maxwell Lewis — 6’7 wing who really excels at scoring and shoots it well from 3 (35%) and was elite in catch-and-shoot situation this year (44%). Shows flashes of being a really good defender, but needs to be more consistent on that end. But he would definitely be a steal at 33 with his well-rounded offensive game, elite catch-and-shoot ability, and defensive potential. Projected late 1st right now and I don’t think he slips past last 1st Round.

7. Julian Strawther — One-trick pony with his 3-ball, but he does that one trick at an elite level. Averaged 15 PPG on 41% from 3 at high volume (5 attempts/per). Good size at 6’7 but will need to bulk up. Not a great defender either, but would be a solid bench wing to surround Wemby with imo. Redundant though if we hold onto Julian Champagnie.

8. James Nnaji – Another big, strong 6’10 230 lb 18 year-old with an NBA body and a 7’5 wingspan. Old-school bruiser type C with no real offensive skill. Think a more athletic Clint Capela. Good rim protector who dunks everything around the rim. Could develop into a defensive monster down the line though to pair with Wemby.

[BatManu20]

A player that could/should be add to the list is Rayan Rupert:

1) His agent is the same as Wembanyama: Bouna Ndiaye.

2) He is said to be more looking at team fit instead of being drafted as high as possible
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/37757403/2023-nba-mock-draft-post-combine-pro-day-impacts-draft-class


3)While he is still high on some mock draft (#18 on ESPN), he has dropped on others (#34 on The Ringer).

Solid prospect who would be a steal at 33 Would be great for the simple fact that he and Wemby are boys. But no way he falls to 33 imo.

[Ariel]

Of those listed, I'd only give a realistic chance of dropping to the 2nd round to:
1) Brice Sensabaugh: Not only is he horrible on defense and very overweight, but has already gone through multiple knee surgeries. I'd say away from him, even at 33.
2) Nick Smith Jr: Undersized shooting guard in a point guard's body, who struggles with efficiency because he depends on tough shots. I don't see a place for him, and he's likely to slide just as Hardy did last year.

Leonard Miller is likely to go top 20 IMO, he did well all year round at Ignite and he's got the size and youth to tempt some team picking higher. I see no chance he's there at 33.

Keyonte George and Dariq Whitehead are likely to slide into the 20s according to most mocks, but I doubt they slip all the way to the 2nd round. Keyonte George is smallish but can create his own shot, shoot from distance or slash, and has potential as a creator for others and passer. Furthermore, I read he played over his natural weight and was bothered with an ankle injury all season long. Dariq Whitehead is a very good shooter who was hobbled all season with a foot injury that required a second surgery recently, and as a consequence was reduced to a spot up shooter role in Duke, much like AJ Griffin was last year. That said, he has previously shown potential as a slasher and passer, and he's got great size at 6'5.75" bare foot, with a 6'10.5" wingspan. If his health checks out, he's a no brainer. I'd take either one of them in a heartbeat, because of youth and raw talent.

Jett Howard is very talented, but he plays extremely passive and doesn't seem to have any inner fire at all. Kris Murray I don't mind, but I'd prefer Jaquez if available at #33.

As far as prospects go, as mentioned I believe Rupert has a chance to slip and as a 2nd rounder he might be a interesting gamble, at least I'll take my chances with a guy with great length and good overall skills learning how to shoot, than a shooter with an extensive injury history, poor conditioning and bad defense like Sensabaugh, or a guy who needs to improve 3x his game just to be able to survive on the league as a smallish combo guard in Nick Smith Jr.

[jesterbobman]

There's always some shit happens things where someone goes stupid early, like 12th in 2021, or where people think someone will definitely go in the lottery / mid first, then falls unexpectedly on the day (Perry Jones!, EJ Liddell last year). Plus, unexpected medicals we don't know about that aren't captured in public mocks yet.

I think who falls probably depends a bit on how much contenders move up into this draft and get picks from Indiana, Utah etc in the late first. I can see Colby Jones, Strawther and TJD having move value as likely immediate contributors / more ready players if contenders move in to the first and trade a veteran for a pick to save $$ (e.g, GSW move Kuminga for 23 or 26, Cleveland moves Okoro for a late first), pushing some of the risky 1st round picks / freshman who struggled but have good high school tape / assessments (e.g, Nick Smith, GG Jackson) down.

True for #44 as well, with the picks in front - e.g Denver might not pick up Nick Smith if he's there at 37 or 40, given they'll be looking for immediate bench depth, and guys like Strawther, Colby and Sasser are probably more valuable to them. On the other side, Smith is a great gamble with #31 overall next to Cade for Detroit, where they're earlier in the process and more likely to just go for upside swings.

[Ariel]

I don’t see any of those guys dropping into the 2nd Rnd tbh, but we’ll see. I’m hoping we trade that pick as part of a package to move back into the lottery to pick a PG. But IF we’re unable to do that and we stay there, my guys are:

1. Amari Bailey — I believe he belongs in the late 1st Rnd and expect him to go there. 6’4 combo guard with a sweet lefty mid-range game who also shoots it well from 3 (38%). Was underutilized at UCLA this year playing on a team full of upperclassman, and was forced to play off-ball, but shows ability to create for others. Competes hard on the defensive end. Needs to limit turnovers, but excels in PnR and can play off-ball. Would be a steal at 33 imo.

2. Colby Jones — Do-it-all Combo guard who feels like one of the Spursy-est players in this draft. Not particularly great at any one thing, but really good at everything. Smart, heady, plays defense, can get to the cup, shoots it well enough, etc. Think he goes late 1st, but if he dropped to 33, would be a huge steal.

3. Jamie Jacquez — 6’7 226 lb wing who is one of the older players in this draft at 22 years old, but he’s a really good, smart, high-IQ player who can do a little bit of everything. Best footwork of any player in this draft. Was UCLA‘s best player this season. Not a great athlete, but good enough. Plays hard on D. Good glue-guy off the bench. Needs to improve from 3, but he has a future in this league. Think he goes Late 1st.

4. Brandin Podziemski — 6’5 combo guard who can really shoot it. Smart, high-IQ player who can fill it up offensively with his smooth lefty jumper. Good passer too out of the PnR. Poor defender though, which is why he’s project late 1st. How long he lasts in this league will depend on if he can hold his own on that end of the floor or not. Spursy type player though who could slip to 33 due to his defense.

5. Andre Jackson — 6’7 Swiss Army knife player who can do everything but shoot. Unlikely we take a swing because we already have Sochan who struggles with his shot. Need to surround Wemby with shooters. But this kid is a hell of a wing defender.

5. Sidy Cissoko — Big, strong frame on this 18 year-old Frenchman at 6’7 235 lbs. He’ll need some time to develop, but could carve out a really nice 3&D role down the line. Think poor man’s Ron Artest. Decent chance he’s available at 33.

6. Maxwell Lewis — 6’7 wing who excels at scoring and shoots it well from 3. Needs to improve his defense, but he would be a steal at 33 as well with his well-rounded offensive game. Projected late 1st right now.

7. Julian Stawther — One-trick pony with his 3-ball, but he does that one trick at an elite level. Good size at 6’7 but will have to bulk up. Not a great defender either, but would be a solid bench wing to surround Wemby with imo. Redundant though if we hold onto Julian Champagnie.

8. James Nnaji – Another big, strong 6’10 230 lb 18 year-old with an NBA body and a 7’5 wingspan. Old-school bruiser type C with no real offensive skill. Think a more athletic Clint Capela. Good rim protector who dunks everything around the rim. Could develop into a defensive monster down the line though to pair with Wemby.
Of those listed, I'm interested in the ones in green (particularly Jaquez, then Colby Jones, Bailey and Strawther), and not interested in Podziemski or Jackson. Podziemski is 6'3.75" without shoes with a 6'5.5" wingspan ( https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-anthro ), his combine vertical was higher than expected but I didn't see it in his game, I get that he's efficient but watching him play I have a hard time believing he's going to translate to the NBA. Andre Jackson shots like your average retirement home grannie, in '23 and with several non shooters on the roster, I don't think he's a viable option.

[timvp]

A player that could/should be add to the list is Rayan Rupert:

1) His agent is the same as Wembanyama: Bouna Ndiaye.

2) He is said to be more looking at team fit instead of being drafted as high as possible
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/37757403/2023-nba-mock-draft-post-combine-pro-day-impacts-draft-class


3)While he is still high on some mock draft (#18 on ESPN), he has dropped on others (#34 on The Ringer).

Rupert was the next highest prospect according to the HoopsHype aggregate I used. I stopped there though because I have Rupert in another write-up.

I noticed that Bouna Ndiaye connection and that quote too. Sends out some Batum vibes, for sure. (Damn, now that I think about it, Batum and Rupert both had basketball playing dads who died of a heart condition in their 30s.) Rupert also went to INSEP, which has to be a plus for the Spurs.

Any idea if Wembanyama and Rupert have any other connection? They're the same age so I assume they know each other quite well.

[Bruno]

Any idea if Wembanyama and Rupert have any other connection? They're the same age so I assume they know each other quite well.

They spend some time together at INSEP. When he was 16 years old, Wembanyama was both playing/practicing at Nanterre and INSEP. I don't think they have played a lot together with french youth teams because Wembayama was quickly put with older players born in 2002/2003. I guess they also spend some time together at Dallas during basketball activities organized by their agent.

[Uriel]

Based on the laws of probability and historical precedent, there is a very good chance that at least one of these players will be available at 33 on draft day.

[Dejounte]

Rupert is the guy everyone knows I’m high on and I’m quietly hope he continues to stay under the radar because he looks like a top 5 talent in this draft to me. His handles are so advanced for a guy his size and he plays as one of the best defenders in this draft.

[Big Empty]

I don’t see any of those guys dropping into the 2nd Rnd tbh, but we’ll see. I’m hoping we trade that pick as part of a package to move back into the lottery to pick a PG. But IF we’re unable to do that and we end up staying there and keeping the pick, my guys are:

1. Amari Bailey — The #3 overall ranked high school player in the nation last year and the #1 ranked combo guard. I believe he belongs in the late 1st Rnd at worst and expect he won’t slip past there. 6’4 with a sweet lefty mid-range game who also shoots it well from 3 (38%). Was underutilized at UCLA this year playing on a team full of upperclassman, and was forced to play off-ball, but shows ability to create for others. Not a great athlete, but good enough and competes hard on the defensive end. Needs to limit turnovers, but excels in PnR and can play off-ball. Had a great showing at the combine. Would be a steal at 33 imo.

2. Colby Jones — Do-it-all Combo guard who feels like one of the Spursy-est players in this draft. Not particularly great at any one thing, but really good at everything. Smart, heady, plays defense, can get to the cup, shoots it well enough, etc. Think he goes late 1st, but if he dropped to 33, would be a huge steal.

3. Jamie Jacquez — 6’7 226 lb wing who is one of the older players in this draft at 22 years old, but he’s a really good, smart, high-IQ player who can do a little bit of everything. Best footwork of any player in this draft. Was UCLA‘s best player this season. Not a great athlete, but good enough. Plays hard on D. Good glue-guy off the bench. Needs to improve from 3, but he has a future in this league. Think he goes Late 1st.

4. Brandin Podziemski — 6’4 combo guard who can really shoot it. Smart, high-IQ player who can fill it up offensively with his smooth lefty jumper. Good passer too out of the PnR. But he’s a poor athlete, a poor defender, and is undersized, which is why he’s projected anywhere from late 1st to mid 2nd. How long he lasts in this league will depend on whether or not he can hold his own on the defensive end of the floor. Spursy type player though in terms of skill set who I think has a good chance of slipping to 33 due to his lack of size and athleticism, as well as his defense. He has the skill set to be a solid combo guard in the right system. But I think the Spurs pass on him.

5. Andre Jackson — 6’7 Swiss Army knife player who can do everything but shoot. Unlikely we take a swing because we already have Sochan who struggles with his shot. Need to surround Wemby with shooters. But this kid is a hell of a wing defender and was a key piece of UConn’s National Championship team.

5. Sidy Cissoko — Big, strong frame on this 19 year-old Frenchman at 6’7 225 lbs with a 6’10 wingspan. He’ll definitely need some time to develop, but could potentially carve out a nice 3&D role down the line. Think poor man’s Ron Artest. Decent chance he’s available at 33.

6. Maxwell Lewis — 6’7 wing who really excels at scoring and shoots it well from 3 (35%) and was elite in catch-and-shoot situation this year (44%). Shows flashes of being a really good defender, but needs to be more consistent on that end. But he would definitely be a steal at 33 with his well-rounded offensive game, elite catch-and-shoot ability, and defensive potential. Projected late 1st right now and I don’t think he slips past last 1st Round.

7. Julian Strawther — One-trick pony with his 3-ball, but he does that one trick at an elite level. Averaged 15 PPG on 41% from 3 at high volume (5 attempts/per). Good size at 6’7 but will need to bulk up. Not a great defender either, but would be a solid bench wing to surround Wemby with imo. Redundant though if we hold onto Julian Champagnie.

8. James Nnaji – Another big, strong 6’10 230 lb 18 year-old with an NBA body and a 7’5 wingspan. Old-school bruiser type C with no real offensive skill. Think a more athletic Clint Capela. Good rim protector who dunks everything around the rim. Could develop into a defensive monster down the line though to pair with Wemby.
James Nnaji for sure

[mo7888]

Rupert is the guy everyone knows I’m high on and I’m quietly hope he continues to stay under the radar because he looks like a top 5 talent in this draft to me. His handles are so advanced for a guy his size and he plays as one of the best defenders in this draft.

Rupert could fall and I'd grab him in a hot second if he did. I dont see anybody on Timvp's list falling that far though. If any then maybe Sensabaugh because of a lack of D, but I still doubt it.

[mo7888]

I don’t see any of those guys dropping into the 2nd Rnd tbh, but we’ll see. I’m hoping we trade that pick as part of a package to move back into the lottery to pick a PG. But IF we’re unable to do that and we end up staying there and keeping the pick, my guys are:

1. Amari Bailey — The #3 overall ranked high school player in the nation last year and the #1 ranked combo guard. I believe he belongs in the late 1st Rnd at worst and expect he won’t slip past there. 6’4 with a sweet lefty mid-range game who also shoots it well from 3 (38%). Was underutilized at UCLA this year playing on a team full of upperclassman, and was forced to play off-ball, but shows ability to create for others. Not a great athlete, but good enough and competes hard on the defensive end. Needs to limit turnovers, but excels in PnR and can play off-ball. Had a great showing at the combine. Would be a steal at 33 imo.

2. Colby Jones — Do-it-all Combo guard who feels like one of the Spursy-est players in this draft. Not particularly great at any one thing, but really good at everything. Smart, heady, plays defense, can get to the cup, shoots it well enough, etc. Think he goes late 1st, but if he dropped to 33, would be a huge steal.

3. Jamie Jacquez — 6’7 226 lb wing who is one of the older players in this draft at 22 years old, but he’s a really good, smart, high-IQ player who can do a little bit of everything. Best footwork of any player in this draft. Was UCLA‘s best player this season. Not a great athlete, but good enough. Plays hard on D. Good glue-guy off the bench. Needs to improve from 3, but he has a future in this league. Think he goes Late 1st.

4. Brandin Podziemski — 6’4 combo guard who can really shoot it. Smart, high-IQ player who can fill it up offensively with his smooth lefty jumper. Good passer too out of the PnR. But he’s a poor athlete, a poor defender, and is undersized, which is why he’s projected anywhere from late 1st to mid 2nd. How long he lasts in this league will depend on whether or not he can hold his own on the defensive end of the floor. Spursy type player though in terms of skill set who I think has a good chance of slipping to 33 due to his lack of size and athleticism, as well as his defense. He has the skill set to be a solid combo guard in the right system. But I think the Spurs pass on him.

5. Andre Jackson — 6’7 Swiss Army knife player who can do everything but shoot. Unlikely we take a swing because we already have Sochan who struggles with his shot. Need to surround Wemby with shooters. But this kid is a hell of a wing defender and was a key piece of UConn’s National Championship team.

5. Sidy Cissoko — Big, strong frame on this 19 year-old Frenchman at 6’7 225 lbs with a 6’10 wingspan. He’ll definitely need some time to develop, but could potentially carve out a nice 3&D role down the line. Think poor man’s Ron Artest. Decent chance he’s available at 33.

6. Maxwell Lewis — 6’7 wing who really excels at scoring and shoots it well from 3 (35%) and was elite in catch-and-shoot situation this year (44%). Shows flashes of being a really good defender, but needs to be more consistent on that end. But he would definitely be a steal at 33 with his well-rounded offensive game, elite catch-and-shoot ability, and defensive potential. Projected late 1st right now and I don’t think he slips past last 1st Round.

7. Julian Strawther — One-trick pony with his 3-ball, but he does that one trick at an elite level. Averaged 15 PPG on 41% from 3 at high volume (5 attempts/per). Good size at 6’7 but will need to bulk up. Not a great defender either, but would be a solid bench wing to surround Wemby with imo. Redundant though if we hold onto Julian Champagnie.

8. James Nnaji – Another big, strong 6’10 230 lb 18 year-old with an NBA body and a 7’5 wingspan. Old-school bruiser type C with no real offensive skill. Think a more athletic Clint Capela. Good rim protector who dunks everything around the rim. Could develop into a defensive monster down the line though to pair with Wemby.

Much more realistic..

[Bruno]

There could also be an "half-way" scenario with these players: they start slipping and Spurs made a small move to trade up.

Add one or two second round picks to pick #33 and it might allow Spurs to get into the #26 to #30 range. The other team might value the freedom of contract you can give to second round picks.

It requires of course a willing trade partner and I don't have a clue if there will be one on draft day.

[JPB]

Rupert was the next highest prospect according to the HoopsHype aggregate I used. I stopped there though because I have Rupert in another write-up.

I noticed that Bouna Ndiaye connection and that quote too. Sends out some Batum vibes, for sure. (Damn, now that I think about it, Batum and Rupert both had basketball playing dads who died of a heart condition in their 30s.) Rupert also went to INSEP, which has to be a plus for the Spurs.

Any idea if Wembanyama and Rupert have any other connection? They're the same age so I assume they know each other quite well.

Bouna is french BB #1 agent and is representing pretty much all the french NBA players for the agency he co-owned (Comsport)... Fournier, Gobert, Rupert, Wemby + half of french national team...

For the record, his father death could have also cost Batum his NBA career. The myth (here) around Nico is that he tried to hide from the other NBA teams, his agent (Ndiaye) making circulate fake medical issues to drop down in the draft and get drafted lower by the spurs... that's far from the truth which is sicker and sadder.

What happened is that before the Draft he made a bunch of tests with different teams where he was asked about his medical history. Batum said his father died from a ruptured aneurysm and then, as he was working out for Toronto, they stopped it as they found him an heart issue... He brutally canceled all his planned workouts, before he and his family contacted the doc back then who diagnosed his father death to explain it was from ruptured aneurysm and not heart attack...

Then Nico goes to Cleveland to make a bunch of deeper tests, which basically tell you if you can or can't play in the NBA or you should find another job, a " last chance test". He was in a room with his agent, a doc, a translator and then the coroner who diagnosed his father's death... It was horrible for Batum since the doc had to explain detail by detail, minute by minute how his father died.. Batum said that he let the kid in this room to become an adult, and really finished mourning his father...

Then he got the authorization to play and got drafted by Portland...

[Mr. Body]

There is a lot of value in the 25-40 range in this draft, much more than usual imo. There are teams with multiple picks in the range. There is news of teams without picks trying to get in there, like Milwaukee or Phoenix.

While they don't have contracts, I think the Spurs are committed to Mamukelashvili and Champagnie for this season. There's enough intrigue to see what they can do. Bassey is on a super-cheap contract for several years.

Suddenly we're in a completely different time horizon than we were six weeks ago. We don't have a lot of roster spots. We don't have a lot of 'just futz around' time on the court to give - we're trying to build (if with pace) a playoff team. Plus we have next year's draft picks knocking on the door, and the next year's draft picks.

It's a fascinating spot to be in. The Spurs need to be judicious with picks yet have too many of them. They need to pick Wemby players without knowing what Wemby needs. They need to develop players yet have few roster spots. They have gaps in the starting lineup whose solution aren't clear.

Raw? I feel like they can't take a really raw player (Nnaji, Julian Phillips) because there's no way to develop them.

More skilled? I feel like they can't take a more skilled upper classman who will top out and need to be drafted over soon enough.

Of course the answer is somewhere in between. I've wanted them to take two rookies from this class, and think they will. My gut is that it's a wing like O-Max or a PG like Amari Bailey. But if one of timvp's drop guys drop? Although I super-doubt they're taking non-defenders like Sensabaugh.

[offset formation]

I don’t see any of those guys dropping into the 2nd Rnd tbh, but we’ll see. I’m hoping we trade that pick as part of a package to move back into the lottery to pick a PG. But IF we’re unable to do that and we end up staying there and keeping the pick, my guys are:

1. Amari Bailey — The #3 overall ranked high school player in the nation last year and the #1 ranked combo guard. I believe he belongs in the late 1st Rnd at worst and expect he won’t slip past there. 6’4 with a sweet lefty mid-range game who also shoots it well from 3 (38%). Was underutilized at UCLA this year playing on a team full of upperclassman, and was forced to play off-ball, but shows ability to create for others. Not a great athlete, but good enough and competes hard on the defensive end. Needs to limit turnovers, but excels in PnR and can play off-ball. Had a great showing at the combine. Would be a steal at 33 imo.

2. Colby Jones — Do-it-all Combo guard who feels like one of the Spursy-est players in this draft. Not particularly great at any one thing, but really good at everything. Smart, heady, plays defense, can get to the cup, shoots it well enough, etc. Think he goes late 1st, but if he dropped to 33, would be a huge steal.

3. Jamie Jacquez — 6’7 226 lb wing who is one of the older players in this draft at 22 years old, but he’s a really good, smart, high-IQ player who can do a little bit of everything. Best footwork of any player in this draft. Was UCLA‘s best player this season. Not a great athlete, but good enough. Plays hard on D. Good glue-guy off the bench. Needs to improve from 3, but he has a future in this league. Think he goes Late 1st.

4. Brandin Podziemski — 6’4 combo guard who can really shoot it. Smart, high-IQ player who can fill it up offensively with his smooth lefty jumper. Good passer too out of the PnR. But he’s a poor athlete, a poor defender, and is undersized, which is why he’s projected anywhere from late 1st to mid 2nd. How long he lasts in this league will depend on whether or not he can hold his own on the defensive end of the floor. Spursy type player though in terms of skill set who I think has a good chance of slipping to 33 due to his lack of size and athleticism, as well as his defense. He has the skill set to be a solid combo guard in the right system. But I think the Spurs pass on him.

5. Andre Jackson — 6’7 Swiss Army knife player who can do everything but shoot. Unlikely we take a swing because we already have Sochan who struggles with his shot. Need to surround Wemby with shooters. But this kid is a hell of a wing defender and was a key piece of UConn’s National Championship team.

5. Sidy Cissoko — Big, strong frame on this 19 year-old Frenchman at 6’7 225 lbs with a 6’10 wingspan. He’ll definitely need some time to develop, but could potentially carve out a nice 3&D role down the line. Think poor man’s Ron Artest. Decent chance he’s available at 33.

6. Maxwell Lewis — 6’7 wing who really excels at scoring and shoots it well from 3 (35%) and was elite in catch-and-shoot situation this year (44%). Shows flashes of being a really good defender, but needs to be more consistent on that end. But he would definitely be a steal at 33 with his well-rounded offensive game, elite catch-and-shoot ability, and defensive potential. Projected late 1st right now and I don’t think he slips past last 1st Round.

7. Julian Strawther — One-trick pony with his 3-ball, but he does that one trick at an elite level. Averaged 15 PPG on 41% from 3 at high volume (5 attempts/per). Good size at 6’7 but will need to bulk up. Not a great defender either, but would be a solid bench wing to surround Wemby with imo. Redundant though if we hold onto Julian Champagnie.

8. James Nnaji – Another big, strong 6’10 230 lb 18 year-old with an NBA body and a 7’5 wingspan. Old-school bruiser type C with no real offensive skill. Think a more athletic Clint Capela. Good rim protector who dunks everything around the rim. Could develop into a defensive monster down the line though to pair with Wemby.

James Nnaji is the guy that Sochan was pimping on his Twitter the other day if I'm not mistaken.

[BatManu20]

^ Correct, he was. Nnaji in most instances would actually be a good upside swing pick at 33. There’s something to work with there given his physical tools and defensive abilities. The problem is the Spurs don’t really have a roster spot for him with Wemby coming in. We already have Zollins, Sochan, Mamu, Bassey, Khem Birch, and now Wemby. I just don’t see an avenue for any playing time for Nnaji with the bigs we already have, something he will certainly need to develop, and I don’t see him taking a two-way contract.


1666933198968815618

[sfernald]

I really like Andre Jackson. Check out what they say about him in depth in the Athletic. Very very good chance he is available at 33 or even perhaps 44.

https://i.postimg.cc/FRJbcBsz/IMG-4596.jpg

[Russ]

How about some possible fallers I like:

1. Leonard Miller -- Has the physical profile of the type of forward the Spurs need, big, athletic, high ceiling (as they say). Could bust but looks a bit more promising than GG Jackson at this point. Final verdict -- very unlikely to slip to 33.

2. Rayan Rupert -- Has the physical profile of the type of guard the Spurs like, lean, quick but smooth, high ceiling. Coming off an iffy season in New Zealand so he might be a value pick. Final verdict -- unlikely to slip to 33.

3. Brandon Podziemski -- High-end shooter (especially catch and shoot) but can also mix it up a bit with the Euro-step around the hoop. All over the map as to where he'll go. Final verdict -- may slip to 33 (but may not).

Better chance to be three at 33:

Terquavion Smith -- Athletic guard, quick, excellent shooting range, creative passer. Body type similar to Djounte Murray and Blake Wesley, so he's Spurs draftable. Concerns; high usage rate, seen as inefficient. Could be as good as any guard in the draft down the road. Final verdict -- he could be gone at 33 but unless one of the real stars fall, take him if he's there.

[BatManu20]

Forgot to add Ben Sheppard to the list of guys who could drop to 33. Another player who had a great showing at the Combine, something the Spurs have historically paid close attention to. High-character 21 year-old who measured 6’5 1/4 barefoot (6’6.5 w/ shoes) and a 6’8 wingspan at the Combine. Projects as a good 3&D prospect at the next level. Solid on-ball defender with switchability who shot an impressive 41.5% from 3 last year as a Senior while averaging 19 PPG. Not an explosive athlete, but a good enough one to attack off the dribble as well. High IQ player who understands the game. Feels like another Spursy-type player who would be a good fit beside Wemby tbh.

E-tTV3B2wFw

UHIhJHniwJg

[Mugen]

They should be able to move into the late 20s pretty easily using #33 and the tons of future 2nd rounders they have. No need to wait if a guy they liked projected in the 15-22 range is falling.

[Seventyniner]

Based on the laws of probability and historical precedent, there is a very good chance that at least one of these players will be available at 33 on draft day.

I can totally see a DeJuan Blair situation happening. A lot of mocks had him going in the teens and he fell all the way to #37, at which point he was a no-brainer pick.

[BatManu20]

I can totally see a DeJuan Blair situation happening. A lot of mocks had him going in the teens and he fell all the way to #37, at which point he was a no-brainer pick.

Cause he had no ACL’s lol. Remember that draft well. Even after being one of the best players in CBB that season and dominating #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet in their matchup, teams still wanted nothing to do with him. Spurs happily picked him and he went on to have a decent career with us. He’d have a ring if not for 6 tbh.

[BatManu20]

They should be able to move into the late 20s pretty easily using #33 and the tons of future 2nd rounders they have. No need to wait if a guy they liked projected in the 15-22 range is falling.

Yea this is thread is likely (hopefully) for shits and gigs as the Spurs will likely trade back into the First Round at some point. Seriously hope it’s into the lottery though so we can grab one of those higher rated PG prospects. Black, Bufkin, Wallace, or JHS. Any of those 4 + Wemby would be a stellar draft tbh.

[Mugen]

I don’t see any of those guys dropping into the 2nd Rnd tbh, but we’ll see. I’m hoping we trade that pick as part of a package to move back into the lottery to pick a PG. But IF we’re unable to do that and we end up staying there and keeping the pick, my guys are:

1. Amari Bailey — The #3 overall ranked high school player in the nation last year and the #1 ranked combo guard. I believe he belongs in the late 1st Rnd at worst and expect he won’t slip past there. 6’4 with a sweet lefty mid-range game who also shoots it well from 3 (38%). Was underutilized at UCLA this year playing on a team full of upperclassman, and was forced to play off-ball, but shows ability to create for others. Not a great athlete, but good enough and competes hard on the defensive end. Needs to limit turnovers, but excels in PnR and can play off-ball. Had a great showing at the combine. Would be a steal at 33 imo.

2. Colby Jones — Do-it-all Combo guard who feels like one of the Spursy-est players in this draft. Not particularly great at any one thing, but really good at everything. Smart, heady, plays defense, can get to the cup, shoots it well enough, etc. Think he goes late 1st, but if he dropped to 33, would be a huge steal.

3. Jamie Jacquez — 6’7 226 lb wing who is one of the older players in this draft at 22 years old, but he’s a really good, smart, high-IQ player who can do a little bit of everything. Best footwork of any player in this draft. Was UCLA‘s best player this season. Not a great athlete, but good enough. Plays hard on D. Good glue-guy off the bench. Needs to improve from 3, but he has a future in this league. Think he goes Late 1st.

4. Brandin Podziemski — 6’4 combo guard who can really shoot it. Smart, high-IQ player who can fill it up offensively with his smooth lefty jumper. Good passer too out of the PnR. But he’s a poor athlete, a poor defender, and is undersized, which is why he’s projected anywhere from late 1st to mid 2nd. How long he lasts in this league will depend on whether or not he can hold his own on the defensive end of the floor. Spursy type player though in terms of skill set who I think has a good chance of slipping to 33 due to his lack of size and athleticism, as well as his defense. He has the skill set to be a solid combo guard in the right system. But I think the Spurs pass on him.

5. Andre Jackson — 6’7 Swiss Army knife player who can do everything but shoot. Unlikely we take a swing because we already have Sochan who struggles with his shot. Need to surround Wemby with shooters. But this kid is a hell of a wing defender and was a key piece of UConn’s National Championship team.

5. Sidy Cissoko — Big, strong frame on this 19 year-old Frenchman at 6’7 225 lbs with a 6’10 wingspan. He’ll definitely need some time to develop, but could potentially carve out a nice 3&D role down the line. Think poor man’s Ron Artest. Decent chance he’s available at 33.

6. Maxwell Lewis — 6’7 wing who really excels at scoring and shoots it well from 3 (35%) and was elite in catch-and-shoot situation this year (44%). Shows flashes of being a really good defender, but needs to be more consistent on that end. But he would definitely be a steal at 33 with his well-rounded offensive game, elite catch-and-shoot ability, and defensive potential. Projected late 1st right now and I don’t think he slips past last 1st Round.

7. Julian Strawther — One-trick pony with his 3-ball, but he does that one trick at an elite level. Averaged 15 PPG on 41% from 3 at high volume (5 attempts/per). Good size at 6’7 but will need to bulk up. Not a great defender either, but would be a solid bench wing to surround Wemby with imo. Redundant though if we hold onto Julian Champagnie.

8. James Nnaji – Another big, strong 6’10 230 lb 18 year-old with an NBA body and a 7’5 wingspan. Old-school bruiser type C with no real offensive skill. Think a more athletic Clint Capela. Good rim protector who dunks everything around the rim. Could develop into a defensive monster down the line though to pair with Wemby.

Good list tbh.

The UCLA guys are a pass for me but I'd love Podz or Nnaji at 33 if they stayed put. Though I think Podz goes in the 20s.

[Mugen]

Cause he had no ACL’s lol. Remember that draft well. Even after being one of the best players in CBB that season and dominating #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet in their matchup, teams still wanted nothing to do with him. Spurs happily picked him and he went on to have a decent career with us. He’d have a ring if not for 6 tbh.

Dejuan might have been the fastest I've ever seen the Spurs send their pick up. ESPN didn't even have time to cut to commercial tbh :lol

[Seventyniner]

Cause he had no ACL’s lol. Remember that draft well. Even after being one of the best players in CBB that season and dominating #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet in their matchup, teams still wanted nothing to do with him. Spurs happily picked him and he went on to have a decent career with us. He’d have a ring if not for 6 tbh.

Right. I think the Blair situation could happen to Whitehead in particular, and to a lesser extent perhaps Nick Smith Jr.

Especially this year where a few teams have multiple picks between 16 and 32. If a team passes on Whitehead due to injury concerns with one of their picks they will likely do so with their other pick. That increases the chance that he falls all the way to #33 because some teams that would have been willing to take him don't have a pick in that range.

Specifically, if Utah/Indiana/Brooklyn all pass on Whitehead, only 10 other teams will have a chance at him before the Spurs at #33. That's not a big number to fall through.

[spurs10]

Great thread. Not knowing much about any of these guys, I now will have a better idea what's going on draft night. Thanks for the info folks!

[Uriel]

Suppose that for each of these players, there is only a 20% chance of them being available at #33. That is, there is an 80% chance of them being picked before that.

Since there are 7 of these players, the probability of at least one of them being available at #33 is 1-(0.8^7)=0.79.

In other words, there is a 79% chance that at least one of them will be available at #33.

[mo7888]

Suppose that for each of these players, there is only a 20% chance of them being available at #33. That is, there is an 80% chance of them being picked before that.

Since there are 7 of these players, the probability of at least one of them being available at #33 is 1-(0.8^7)=0.79.

In other words, there is a 79% chance that at least one of them will be available at #33.

Your flaw is in the 20% supposition..

[BackHome]

Suppose that for each of these players, there is only a 20% chance of them being available at #33. That is, there is an 80% chance of them being picked before that.

Since there are 7 of these players, the probability of at least one of them being available at #33 is 1-(0.8^7)=0.79.

In other words, there is a 79% chance that at least one of them will be available at #33.

But what if I only like one of them ..lol

FYI - Tankathon just did an update:

33. Jaime Jaquez
44. Jordan Walsh

[rascal]

Jaquez will be the pick at 33.

[Ariel]

Jaquez will be the pick at 33.
Jaquez is who I'm hoping for, but I'd be shocked if he isn't taken in the first round... in fact I think there's a reasonable chance he gets picked before 20.

[Ariel]

But what if I only like one of them ..lol

FYI - Tankathon just did an update:

33. Jaime Jaquez
44. Jordan Walsh
That's a perfect draft for me. Walsh at 44 is doable, Jaquez at 33 seems less and less likely :depressed

[rascal]

Spurs aren't keeping 44.

[Obstructed_View]

Dejuan might have been the fastest I've ever seen the Spurs send their pick up. ESPN didn't even have time to cut to commercial tbh :lol

Yep. We opined at the time that it was deliberate. I don't recall if Blair ever had any knee issues, despite not always being in top shape.

[kobyz]

My under the radar prospects of this draft is Ricky Council, all around talent that absolutely has the dog in him, he's someone that everyone sleep on him for some reason and might slipp to the second round, i found myself think if it's not Jimmy Butler story all over again... At least i think he'll be similar to Josh Hart

[heyheymymy]

Jordan Walsh or Council IV in the 2nd seems like a better value than NSJ in the first or what it would cost to get Anthony Black though I like Black a lot.

Council IV could be a solid deep bench guy and Walsh has potential too.

[Uriel]

Your flaw is in the 20% supposition..
Even if we assumed it was only 10%, the probability of at least one of them being available would still be 52%, which means it's more likely than not. That accords with historical precedent.

[mo7888]

Even if we assumed it was only 10%, the probability of at least one of them being available would still be 52%, which means it's more likely than not. That accords with historical precedent.

It's alot less than that for any specific player on that list.

[BackHome]

​​
Spurs aren't keeping 44.

And many people said “Spurs are Not Tanking” at the beginning of the season and yet here we are with the number 1 pick about to draft Wemby. All glory goes to the Tanks Commanders and off course our Front Office we know what were doing just trust the process.

Lol. Yeah I don’t think were keeping the 44th pick unless it is a stash

[DrunkTXLabrat]

Nic Batum and the #30

[RC_Drunkford]

Spurstalk and timvp have now made it to television. Watch at 0:55


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OeTadK751g

[JPB]

I see "pundits" still read Spurstalk in 2023.

[DAF86]

Chances of this guy being there at 33?

DmfBE8s9WbU

If Pop can coach his flaws, he would be a steal, tbh.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Spurs aren't keeping 44.

Philadelphia is supposedly looking a pick in the 40s. Might be something there.

[Ariel]

Chances of this guy being there at 33?

DmfBE8s9WbU

If Pop can coach his flaws, he would be a steal, tbh.
He'll be there at 44, there will be better prospects at 33.

[DAF86]

Chances of this guy being there at 33?

DmfBE8s9WbU

If Pop can coach his flaws, he would be a steal, tbh.

Looking at some mocks, it seems like he could be available even at 44. I'd add him to the wish list of second round prospects.

[Russ]

Chances of this guy being there at 33?

DmfBE8s9WbU

If Pop can coach his flaws, he would be a steal, tbh.

Shhhhhh . . .

Nothing to see here, move along.

(Not quite yet, my perceptive friend.)

[DAF86]

He'll be there at 44, there will be better prospects at 33.

Yeah, did a little research and seems like that would be the case. I wouldn't mind him at 33 either, tbh. I don't see that kind of shooting and scoring versatility on other 2nd round prospects, and his flaws (defense, playmaking) seem very coachable since he has the physical tools and talent to work on them.

If Pop can work his magic, that kind of offensive talent could easily translate into all-star level. If it doesn't pan out, it was just a 2nd round pick. Seems like a high reward-low risk pick, imho.

[Ariel]

Yeah, did a little research and seems like that would be the case. I wouldn't mind him at 33 either, tbh. I don't see that kind of shooting and scoring versatility on other 2nd round prospects, and his flaws (defense, playmaking) seem very coachable since he has the physical tools and talent to work on them.

If Pop can work his magic, that kind of offensive talent could easily translate into all-star level. If it doesn't pan out, it was just a 2nd round pick. Seems like a high reward-low risk pick, imho.
small, one-dimensional combo guards are dime a dozen, there will likely be several wings available at that pick that spot that are much better value, or someone like Colby Jones. I would like to add another pick on top of 33 instead of moving up from it, because I really see value being available there.

[Russ]

small, one-dimensional combo guards are dime a dozen, there will likely be several wings available at that pick that spot that are much better value, or someone like Colby Jones. I would like to add another pick on top of 33 instead of moving up from it, because I really see value being available there.

He's electric. He's not a dime a dozen IMO.

He could be a bust but he could be a difference-maker and a capstone piece for years to come. Most of these other guys don't have that possibility.

The time to draft high-floor role players is 2-3 years from now. Now is the time to swing for the fences.

[DAF86]

small, one-dimensional combo guards are dime a dozen, there will likely be several wings available at that pick that spot that are much better value, or someone like Colby Jones. I would like to add another pick on top of 33 instead of moving up from it, because I really see value being available there.

Isn't your dream scenario Jaquez at 33? I'd much rather swing for the fences with a guy like Smith than drafting a slow 22 year old wing that does much of his damage in a way that probably will never be able to play in the NBA: lots of mid postup isos.

Sure, chances are that Smith doesn't ever amount to anything, while Jaquez might find a role as fringe rotational piece, but I would rather go for the higher upside with our 2nd round picks.

[Ariel]

Isn't your dream scenario Jaquez at 33? I'd much rather swing for the fences with a guy like Smith than drafting a slow 22 year old wing that does much of his damage in a way that probably will never be able to play in the NBA: lots of mid postup isos.

Sure, chances are that Smith doesn't ever amount to anything, while Jaquez might find a role as fringe rotational piece, but I would rather go for the higher upside with our 2nd round picks.
Swing for the fences is usually euphemism for pipe dream. Last year Patrick Baldwin Jr was a "high upside" prospect, that is an overused tag that usually means you f'n sucked. This year it's Nick Smith Jr, GG Jackson, Emoni Bates, etc, those guys have a very low chance of ever panning out, and even if they do it's long term and they're not that special to begin with. 2nd round guys that succeed are usually not "high upside", but rather "high floor" misconstrued as "low upside": Andrew Nembhard, Herb Jones, Jalen Brunson, Malcom Brogdon, etc. A smart and skilled guy usually finds a way around.
What are Nick Smith Jr and Terquavion Smith "best case scenarios" comps? Even then, one way, undersized shooting guards end up producing enough flash to trick a team into giving them big contracts, only to become a burden shortly after (Poole, Herro, soon Maxey). There's a bunch of such guys every year, with little to tell one apart from the other. I'd take the Derrick White types, find a couple of those and they're more likely to get you a star via trade than you are to find a gem in a mystery box.

[rascal]

Swing for the fences is usually euphemism for pipe dream. Last year Patrick Baldwin Jr was a "high upside" prospect, that is an overused tag that usually means you f'n sucked. This year it's Nick Smith Jr, GG Jackson, Emoni Bates, etc, those guys have a very low chance of ever panning out, and even if they do it's long term and they're not that special to begin with. 2nd round guys that succeed are usually not "high upside", but rather "high floor" misconstrued as "low upside": Andrew Nembhard, Herb Jones, Jalen Brunson, Malcom Brogdon, etc. A smart and skilled guy usually finds a way around.
What are Nick Smith Jr and Terquavion Smith "best case scenarios" comps? Even then, one way, undersized shooting guards end up producing enough flash to trick a team into giving them big contracts, only to become a burden shortly after (Poole, Herro, soon Maxey). There's a bunch of such guys every year, with little to tell one apart from the other. I'd take the Derrick White types, find a couple of those and they're more likely to get you a star via trade than you are to find a gem in a mystery box.

Maxey is looking really good.

How was Baldwin such a high prospect. He had the worst athleticism measurements pre draft.

[mo7888]

Maxey is looking really good.

How was Baldwin such a high prospect. He had the worst athleticism measurements pre draft.

Maybe because athleticism is only part of the equation...and it's not the biggest part...

[rascal]

Maybe because athleticism is only part of the equation...and it's not the biggest part...

Baldwin's stock fell with the poor athletic reports.

So he wasn't regarded anymore as such a high prospect. Atleticism does play a big role in draft upside potential.

[exstatic]

Baldwin's stock fell with the poor athletic reports.

So he wasn't regarded anymore as such a high prospect. Atleticism does play a big role in draft upside potential.

Baldwin's stock had already fallen long before the combine. He was injured during the season, and then the university fired his dad as coach.

[mo7888]

Baldwin's stock fell with the poor athletic reports.

So he wasn't regarded anymore as such a high prospect. Atleticism does play a big role in draft upside potential.

As ex said....his stock fell from performance during the season....not from combine results..

And yes, athleticism plays a role, but its not the most important factor. Just like analytics plays a role in evaluation while not being the only evaluation tool.

[Uriel]

What about Dariq Whitehead?

[Uriel]

Based on the laws of probability and historical precedent, there is a very good chance that at least one of these players will be available at 33 on draft day.
Hey, what do you know? I was right yet again.