Bold prediction: Barring injury, the Spurs can win 40 games this coming season

[Uriel]

I understand that the notion a 22-60 team could add 18 wins to its win total just by adding a 19-year old rookie appears ridiculous on the surface. But hear me out first.

Last year’s team was tanking, which meant it was purposefully holding out players who otherwise could’ve played or giving extra minutes to players who probably weren’t ready for playing time in an effort to lose games. If last year’s team had been at full strength and actively trying to win games, instead of actively trying to lose them, I believe it could’ve won up to 30 games.

Factor in internal improvement from the core young players and whatever free agents the team could add this offseason, and I believe that could add another 5 wins to the win total and make it 35. Now add in a generational prospect in Victor Wembanyama on top of that and I believe that could get you another extra 5 wins, bringing the total to 40.

In summary, assuming reasonably good health, I believe this coming season’s Spurs team is capable of winning 35-40 games and competing for a spot in the play-in tournament. If things break their way in the tournament, they could even make the playoffs.

[Mr. Body]

Unlike what some around here say, this team has a good amount of young talent. It's also talent that can be mutiplied by Victor's abilities. Keldon and Vassell are going to get all kinds of open looks, for example. Sochan, Malaki, and Zach looked really promising late in the year. Plus the league, esp the WC, is a wreck right now. And the defense is going to be vastly improved by effort, team focus, and Wembanyama.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see close to 40 wins.

[Extra Stout]

The prediction will remain hypothetical because the Spurs have their eyes on another high lottery pick and under the guise of “seeing what they have” and “finding out what works” will again pad the loss column.

[baseline bum]

The prediction will remain hypothetical because the Spurs have their eyes on another high lottery pick and under the guise of “seeing what they have” and “finding out what works” will again pad the loss column.

I don't see it. Who are they tanking for next year? I see it more like them taking a year to see who fits with Wemby and can be kept when they make a push to start winning.

[SpursFan86]

DraftKings has the Spurs as +300 to win 35 games and +650 to win 40 games. Maybe I’m being a homer but I really like those odds tbh. Feel like we would’ve been a 30-35 win team last year if healthy and not tanking, and now we’re adding Wembanyama + core will be another year older + won’t be tanking + have money to spend in FA to add a few veteran pieces. Seems like 35-40 wins is almost a toss-up IMO.

[Silverheart80]

I'll make a not-so-bold prediction for how the season goes.

* Spurs struggle during the first half of the season. Pop experiments with lineups per usual.
* Wembanyama gets acclimated to NBA rules. Experiences foul trouble but is spectacular.
* Spurs finish the first half of the season playing .500 ball, around 30-30.
* Wembanyama makes the All-Star Game as a rookie.
* Roster and roles solidify in the second half of the season. Spurs play .700 ball. Pick up about 15 more wins.
* Finish the regular season with 45 wins, good for a top-6 seed in the West.

Wembanyama leads all rookies in triple-doubles. Finishes top-3 in the league in blocks and steals.
Wins Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

And I think this is a conservative estimate. Could turn out even better.

* As Uriel said -- barring major injuries (knock on *all* the wood).

[Obstructed_View]

I watched probably 75 games last year. My opinion is this:

The Spurs didn't always look like they were tanking to most people. The reason is because they tanked defensively harder than any team in history. They intentionally left three point shooters open in the corners. It is exactly the opposite of the offensive strategy Pop pioneered with Bruce Bowen. In addition, they always left bigs going to the front of the rim for putbacks or easy finishes. This took a while to figure out, as the Spurs accidentally started off strong the first three or four weeks of the season. Some nights they could blow teams out on accident just from hot shooting. The giveaway is how often Pop didn't go Serbian on guys for messing up rotations or giving up threes.

I feel like, with the combination of shoring up the defense, not resting players and holding them out for piddly minor injuries, young player development, and of course Wemby, the Spurs can exceed Uriel's prediction. No telling how many waves they can make if everything goes right.

[Barfunk]

Would be nice to make the playoffs next season. Never know!

[timtonymanu]

Won’t be surprised if they make the playoffs given how awful the NBA is overall right now.

[eDizzle20]

Not a stretch. I mean the tank is over. That’s how impactful getting Wemby is. You’re not gonna just try to tread water with a talent like him. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Spurs didn’t trade for another lottery pick and take a pg, but did trade their #33 pick for future 2nd’s. I anticipate that’s to leave a roster spot for bringing an established pg abroad.

[lefty20]

West is looking wild for next year.

There is not one team that is obviously gonna try to tank, at least for the first half of the season. Reality and injuries can always change things.

Denver is clearly locked at the top. Everyone else, including playoff teams, got some pretty big question marks entering the season. It's gonna be a dog fight in the standing all year.

[ace3g]

I've been telling my co-workers that the Spurs will make the playoffs next year. They aren't tanking next year, their core of Wemby/Keldon/Sochan/Vassell is better than they are getting credit for, and their bench won't be filled with players designed for the tank.

As mentioned above it's not a coincidence they had historically bad defensive stats during a tanking year.

Throughout the year when they wanted to remind the league of their talent, they had wins like the one against Denver on March 10th.

[RC_Drunkford]

I watched probably 75 games last year. My opinion is this:

The Spurs didn't always look like they were tanking to most people. The reason is because they tanked defensively harder than any team in history. They intentionally left three point shooters open in the corners. It is exactly the opposite of the offensive strategy Pop pioneered with Bruce Bowen. In addition, they always left bigs going to the front of the rim for putbacks or easy finishes. This took a while to figure out, as the Spurs accidentally started off strong the first three or four weeks of the season. Some nights they could blow teams out on accident just from hot shooting. The giveaway is how often Pop didn't go Serbian on guys for messing up rotations or giving up threes.

I feel like, with the combination of shoring up the defense, not resting players and holding them out for piddly minor injuries, young player development, and of course Wemby, the Spurs can exceed Uriel's prediction. No telling how many waves they can make if everything goes right.

this exactly. Add to that that Keldon, Vassell and Sochan missed a combined 89 games.

[TDomination]

Spurs began 5-2 last year and that was all the coaches needed to see. after that, the tank began. They knew we weren’t remotely close to championship material but they saw that we have a decent team to be able to get wins. Add wemby to the mix and we can be pretty good. So they took the risk, tanked and came out on top.

and now they will be able to see what this team currently constructed will be able to do with adding a superstar.

[MarCowMar]

I think the biggest factor is Wemby seems like he wants to win now and make a mark in the league.

As long as he doesn't hit a wall I think the team will try to support his ambition rather than piddle around a year.

Getting into the playoffs and experiencing playoff basketball is not a bad goal for this team. We also have the assets to make deals as needed throughout the season.

[SPURt]

I’m definitely taking the over on 40, I will on 50 too.

[Mr. Body]

There were seventeen teams last year who won between 34-45 games. That's a lot of mediocrity. Denver only won 53 games. Philly won 54, Boston and Milwaukee won 57 and 58.

There are a lot of wins to be had from pretty much all those teams.

[ismael-robert]

Yeah not a bold take...here's mine...contenders

[scott]

Agree 150% - and this is before we take into account the upcoming free agency season (which may amount to nothing for the Spurs, but we’ll have to wait and see).

I think Wemby is going to force the Spurs to move at a faster pace than they may have otherwise planned, but the organization will in no way be disappointed in this. We are already seeing it with things like Wemby wanting to play in Summer League, saying he wants to play as many games as possible, etc. No rookie has averages 23ppg since Allen Iverson, and I think that maybe changes this year.

Spurs could have easily won 5-8 more games last season (and I’d say this is also true of DET and HOU and CHA… the tanking was hard and deliberate last year). As you mention, we will see improvement from a year of seasoning, and then adding Wemby… its a recipe for the play-in or even a 5-6 seed. Only 5 games separated #4 from #10 at the end of last season, lots of parity in the West.

[LeBowen]

As you guys already said, there's no doubt that this roster would've won 30+ games last season without all the blatant tanking and DNPs. Not even a question.
Not a great roster, but everyone is young and will be improving, so even without Victor it should be a ~35 wins roster assuming noone gets injured and Pop actually tries to win every game.
Others teams will also improve, but if Victor is the real deal I'm sure Spurs will be in the play-in race until the end.

There's no point in tanking anymore. We got ourselves a generational talent and have a truckload of picks.
A lot of teams are on the brink of collapsing and we'll definitely trade for an all-star within a year or two.

If all goes according to plan, we should become a guaranteed top6 team within two years.

Denver is the only legit force in the West, Grizzlies should be in there but their star player is a moron.
Kings are great, but that roster has limited ceiling with no room for improvement.
After that, everything is open.
Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Lakers are close to their expiry date and it's going to get really ugly because they hav nothing to keep it up after star players fall off.
Timberwolves, Pelicans and Mavericks are joke organizations despite having star players.
Blazers need to get rid of Dame.
Leaving us with Spurs, Rockets, OKC and Jazz in rising team category.

I'd say Spurs are in the best position after OKC, so getting back to being a legit playoff team should happen in no time.

[RC_Drunkford]

Spurs will have a winning record this season, no question

[mystargtr34]

I think Spurs end up with 40-45 wins.

[tbdog]

Depends what we do in free agency. Pick up a vet and a rotational player, and we are set for a .500 season.

[Raven]

I'll make a not-so-bold prediction for how the season goes.

* Spurs struggle during the first half of the season. Pop experiments with lineups per usual.
* Wembanyama gets acclimated to NBA rules. Experiences foul trouble but is spectacular.
* Spurs finish the first half of the season playing .500 ball, around 30-30.
* Wembanyama makes the All-Star Game as a rookie.
* Roster and roles solidify in the second half of the season. Spurs play .700 ball. Pick up about 15 more wins.
* Finish the regular season with 45 wins, good for a top-6 seed in the West.

Wembanyama leads all rookies in triple-doubles. Finishes top-3 in the league in blocks and steals.
Wins Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

And I think this is a conservative estimate. Could turn out even better.

* As Uriel said -- barring major injuries (knock on *all* the wood).


i don't see wemby being high on assists

[Dejounte]

If the Spurs don’t significantly improve in the win column, that’s more indicative of Wemby’s talent than it is the players around him. Great players can carry their team in the regular season. It’s the playoffs where the talent surrounding your franchise player gets exposed.

My guess is? Yes, the Spurs will definitely win a lot in the regular season.

[Obstructed_View]

this exactly. Add to that that Keldon, Vassell and Sochan missed a combined 89 games.

The Spurs had to work to avoid letting Johnson and Vassell play in the same game. They ultimately had to really shuffle the roster because guys played so well together. It ended up developing all the young players and making what looks like a close-knit squad that is good together. We may be pleasantly surprised at how well this team meshes around Victor.

[Silverheart80]

i don't see wemby being high on assists

I think you'll be right at first, but as the season goes along, he'll draw more double teams and help defenders. But unlike Mets 92, he'll be surrounded by much more skilled scorers overall. I'd never expect him to be a point guard, but his height and length already afford him passing angles that others can't access. I think his assist numbers will escalate as the season progresses. But at first, yeah, there will likely be a period of adjustment.

[thiste]

Yep, my estimation is 40+ as well. Entirely realistic.

[Obstructed_View]

I think you'll be right at first, but as the season goes along, he'll draw more double teams and help defenders. But unlike Mets 92, he'll be surrounded by much more skilled scorers overall. I'd never expect him to be a point guard, but his height and length already afford him passing angles that others can't access. I think his assist numbers will escalate as the season progresses. But at first, yeah, there will likely be a period of adjustment.
I think his assist numbers will be strong. Good teammates are going to make his job easy, and he's an outstanding teammate who will always try to make the best move for the team.

[Biggems]

Our division is trash right now. Houston in in perennial tank mode. The Pelicants simply can't. With Ja out for 25 games, that really hampers their chances at a successful season. Dallas is the cream of the crop atop this shit show, but since Kyrie came along, they struggled. They will make the playoffs, but I feel they will not be world beaters.

Now that the tank is over, with the addition of Wemby, I can see us strongly competing for the division title and a top 4 seed in the West. Of course all of this hinges on our health. If we have a healthy squad this year, watch out Association.

GO SPURS GO

[mo7888]

The prediction will remain hypothetical because the Spurs have their eyes on another high lottery pick and under the guise of “seeing what they have” and “finding out what works” will again pad the loss column.

I don't think so. I thiink, we hope Toronto's pick is a lottery pick that we can package with our own and Charlotte's to move up if we like someone. If the top of the draft is perceived as weaker, it won't be as difficult to move up.

[sfernald]

The prediction will remain hypothetical because the Spurs have their eyes on another high lottery pick and under the guise of “seeing what they have” and “finding out what works” will again pad the loss column.

This year our slogan is redshirt for Risacher!

[exstatic]

The West is trash. Anything could happen, except a tank.

[slick'81]

This team easily is over 30 wins. If wemby is for real playin/playoffs are in play

[John B]

I'll make a not-so-bold prediction for how the season goes.

* Spurs struggle during the first half of the season. Pop experiments with lineups per usual.
* Wembanyama gets acclimated to NBA rules. Experiences foul trouble but is spectacular.
* Spurs finish the first half of the season playing .500 ball, around 30-30.
* Wembanyama makes the All-Star Game as a rookie.
* Roster and roles solidify in the second half of the season. Spurs play .700 ball. Pick up about 15 more wins.
* Finish the regular season with 45 wins, good for a top-6 seed in the West.

Wembanyama leads all rookies in triple-doubles. Finishes top-3 in the league in blocks and steals.
Wins Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

And I think this is a conservative estimate. Could turn out even better.

* As Uriel said -- barring major injuries (knock on *all* the wood).

The team started hot last year in everyone’s surprise, until Pop realized that he was supposed to be tanking. You add a generational talent and an invigorated team who finally got the go signal to win, I think Spurs would hit the ground running. Wemby will create a lot of open looks, especially to Vassell. I expect him to average in 26pts. With both Wemby and Zollins stretching the floor, Sochan and Keldon will haveva free lane to attack the rim. Other teams will adjust and finally Spurs slows down by January. But I think easily Spurs win 40+

[Das Texan]

Spurs also had a hot stretch last season when pretty much everyone played for what? 6 games in a row or something. That quickly got shut down.

There were enough flashes from what I saw last year to have been excited about what this team could possibly do. With a true star now that will allow others to settle into better roles, there is a possibility this team can truly blossom.

There will be some challenges in how to fit the pieces together, but if anyone can figure it out, I'd put my money on this brain trust given their history.

Ultimately, some trades will probably have to be made as there is some redundancy on the roster in the wings especially. Whom gets jettisoned is the real question and not something that probalby needs to be answered until next summer.

[rascal]

You aren't taking into account other teams were also tanking and the Spurs picked up about 5 easy wins against these tanking teams.

[Knox]

I think .500 is a reasonable over under for Spurs in year 1.

[BackHome]

I was all in the Tank this past season I know some of you were against it or thought no way we would tank well we did and we got Wemby which everyone has stated is a generational talent. But as I said in past post I just want to tank and have a chance at a top 5 pick after that I think we got something to build on. I never wanted to be the Houston or OK of the league who just tank every year straight up and seem not to develop there players properly. So going forward I think we will have a much better year and I do think players were shall I say not playing up to there full potential and will see the difference this season. Having said that I think we will end up with a record of 38 to 43 wins

[MannyIsGod]

People really are misunderstanding parity and mediocrity. I think there's a huge range of possible outcomes for next season for the spurs but let's at least see how free agency plays out before deciding what is a bold prediction.

[LongtimeSpursFan]

You aren't taking into account other teams were also tanking and the Spurs picked up about 5 easy wins against these tanking teams.

They were tanking but they’re still terrible, especially Houston.

[LongtimeSpursFan]

People are calling Wemby a generational talent much like Lebron. The Cavs picked up 18 wins after drafting him. I’ll go with 18-20 wins with Wemby. That should put the Spurs around .500.

[barakz21]

People are calling Wemby a generational talent much like Lebron. The Cavs picked up 18 wins after drafting him. I’ll go with 18-20 wins with Wemby. That should put the Spurs around .500.

I think this is a way better team than that Cavs team rookie Lebron had. He had who? Ilgauskas, sophomore Boozer, knucklehead Ricky Davis and Dajuan Wagner who busted (due to a medical condition iirc) as his best teammates imo. Whereas this Wemby is walking into a team that just needs a real go-to guy. Thinking about it, it’s kinda similar to the situation Timmy came into, and established team whose players already knew their roles. Only differences being THAT Spurs team already had an established go-to guy in DRob and a star in Sean.

I think Keldon is the one who’ll benefit the most from Wemby. Either his scoring goes up somewhat with improved efficiency or his scoring will go down but be more efficient and the rest of his stats will go up.

[Davidicus]

Just made my first sports bet ever on Spurs winning 40+ games. +650. Like I needed another reason to cheer for the Spurs this year.

I feel like the first 5-10 games last year when we kept winning (and everyone was freaking out, lol) was the true team, before Vassell injury and tankathon settled into players minds. We’re versatile, athletic, and play hard and smart.

Now we will have a very hungry, almost frothing at the mouth team, plus Wemby, not to mention Pop sharpening his knives for the real deal. And who knows who we pick up in FA.

I think a .500 team is a good goal to shoot for. Not a lock, but I’m confident we have the players and attitude to achieve it.

[vander]

I feel like they could easily win 35+ even without Wemby. Most of last year Pop was holding out one or two of the starters for 'injuries'.
young team never played at full strength, could never get into a rhythm, and still looked pretty good from time to time...

[rankingtear]

Wemby is a rookie but he is a big man and on of the best defenders out of the gate. Plus 2 big lineups are regular season cheat codes. At least similar effect to Mobley.

[slick'81]

Duncan had the biggest turn around from 20-56 wins .Tall task even for wemby

[Spursmania]

Tim also had Robinson

[Mr. Body]

Duncan had the biggest turn around from 20-56 wins .Tall task even for wemby

It was a 50 win team before Duncan was drafted.

[Ariel]

I think 35 wins are pretty achievable, with 40+ being possible if they're aggressive in adding a couple good vets but I wouldn't rush it: one more season of development and taking advantage of opportunities should be the goal, not pivoting as fast as possible.

[Dejounte]

I think 35 wins are pretty achievable, with 40+ being possible if they're aggressive in adding a couple good vets but I wouldn't rush it: one more season of development and taking advantage of opportunities should be the goal, not pivoting as fast as possible.

The biggest teacher is the play-in/playoffs, so I think they should aim for that.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I'm going to predict 42 wins. The league is so weak and evenly matched now that the Spurs should be able to hover around .500.

[spurraider21]

wemby couldnt even make a jumper in an empty gym, hows he gonna put up points against nba defenses?

[timvp]

I think Spurs fans are underestimating how hard it is for teenagers to impact winning. You can't compare to Duncan and Robinson.

LeBron was in a terrible Eastern Conference (four teams over .500), had more experienced (and probably better, if we want to be honest) teammates, already had mostly grown into his body and he still just won 35 games as a rookie.

[SpursFan86]

I think Spurs fans are underestimating how hard it is for teenagers to impact winning. You can't compare to Duncan and Robinson.

LeBron was in a terrible Eastern Conference (four teams over .500), had more experienced (and probably better, if we want to be honest) teammates, already had mostly grown into his body and he still just won 35 games as a rookie.

Well here’s the question: how many games do you think the Spurs win last year if they’re healthy and fully motivated to win? IMO we win something like 30ish games. Now that group is all a year older and more experienced, so let’s say this year without Victor they’d be able to win 35ish games (again, assuming a healthy squad).

I don’t think winning 40 games is a lock, but it really doesn’t seem as crazy as it might sound at first thought. Definitely think Victor will struggle more than people here likely assume, but at the least I think he’ll be a noticeable positive on the defensive end and will demand attention on the offensive side which will make things easier for guys like Keldon and Vassell.

Mentioned it earlier in this thread but Vegas has the Spurs to win 40+ games at +650. That implies a ~13% chance which just seems crazy low to me. Especially when you consider we have a good amount of cap space to use just to hit the floor, so bringing in a decent vet or two seems likely.

[JPB]

Depends what we do in free agency. Pick up a vet and a rotational player, and we are set for a .500 season.

This.

Ask me the queqtion when the season starts.

[bluebellmaniac]

I think SilverHeart80 nailed it when he mentioned that Pop is gonna try all sorts of crazy lineups to see what the potential really is of each player and as a team. Otherwise almost 50 would be in reach. I'll say 45.

[TD 21]

Well here’s the question: how many games do you think the Spurs win last year if they’re healthy and fully motivated to win? IMO we win something like 30ish games. Now that group is all a year older and more experienced, so let’s say this year without Victor they’d be able to win 35ish games (again, assuming a healthy squad).

I don’t think winning 40 games is a lock, but it really doesn’t seem as crazy as it might sound at first thought. Definitely think Victor will struggle more than people here likely assume, but at the least I think he’ll be a noticeable positive on the defensive end and will demand attention on the offensive side which will make things easier for guys like Keldon and Vassell.

Mentioned it earlier in this thread but Vegas has the Spurs to win 40+ games at +650. That implies a ~13% chance which just seems crazy low to me. Especially when you consider we have a good amount of cap space to use just to hit the floor, so bringing in a decent vet or two seems likely.

As if the Spurs were the only team to do what they did, however you want to label it.

Unless they make a marked upgrade at PG (which I don't see), while improved in a general sense, I don't expect the standings to be all that indicative of it.

[Seventyniner]

Mentioned it earlier in this thread but Vegas has the Spurs to win 40+ games at +650. That implies a ~13% chance which just seems crazy low to me. Especially when you consider we have a good amount of cap space to use just to hit the floor, so bringing in a decent vet or two seems likely.

I agree on both fronts. It's hard to project even the final state of the roster at this point due to the salary floor and Wemby (most likely, from what we have heard) wanting to win immediately.

[Ariel]

The biggest teacher is the play-in/playoffs, so I think they should aim for that.
Well, Utah, Dallas, Atlanta, all those teams made the playoffs multiple times and were supposed "to learn", and they eventually regressed badly. My point is, making it to the playoffs is important as long as you're not doing it at the expense of the future. The Spurs could EASILY make a few win now trades and get to the playoffs as soon as next season, but if the ultimate goal is long term success (like Brian Wright said multiple times) then they should be very careful not to shoot themselves in the foot going for a quick fix that limits future flexibility.
With that in mind, I'd be cautious before handing out big, long term bucks to past their prime free agents or spending a bunch of future assets in a trade for a fringe star. Sometimes the perfect opportunity comes, say something along the lines of what Denver did with Aaron Gordon or Boston with Derrick White, landing a perfect fit for a reasonable price from a team that's going a different direction. The opportunity eventually comes, you just have to stay ready and flexible to take advantage when it knocks at your door. If you're too anxious, you won't have the assets or cap space when it comes.
Bare in mind I'm not advocating for another tank, but something more along the lines of bringing in a couple stop gap vets to help the young guys while still playing them. The big difference being, we should actually TRY TO WIN, as opposed to last year Pop was purposefully letting things slide he normally wouldn't. Just by doing that I think we're at 35 wins, and if we make the playoffs then great, but if we don't I don't think it's a huge deal at this stage (this year).

[rascal]

Well here’s the question: how many games do you think the Spurs win last year if they’re healthy and fully motivated to win? IMO we win something like 30ish games. Now that group is all a year older and more experienced, so let’s say this year without Victor they’d be able to win 35ish games (again, assuming a healthy squad).

I don’t think winning 40 games is a lock, but it really doesn’t seem as crazy as it might sound at first thought. Definitely think Victor will struggle more than people here likely assume, but at the least I think he’ll be a noticeable positive on the defensive end and will demand attention on the offensive side which will make things easier for guys like Keldon and Vassell.

Mentioned it earlier in this thread but Vegas has the Spurs to win 40+ games at +650. That implies a ~13% chance which just seems crazy low to me. Especially when you consider we have a good amount of cap space to use just to hit the floor, so bringing in a decent vet or two seems likely.

If the Spurs bring in a good vet the odds will change. The current odds is for the current team as is.

[Old School 44]

The Spurs do big things when adding a generational big. Turnarounds of +35 with Robinson, +36 with Duncan, a +30 with Wembanyama in a weak West should be easy.

[ambchang]

The spurs were -9.82 last year. A team that was 40-42 like OKC was 0.96, that’s a turnaround of 10.78 ppg. Only one single player had a BPM of over 10 last year and it was jokic at 13. Wemby is great but to expect him to turn this thing around with the way the team is constructed right now, even with improvements from all the other players and factoring last years tank, that is an incredible turnaround.

[Uriel]

The spurs were -9.82 last year. A team that was 40-42 like OKC was 0.96, that’s a turnaround of 10.78 ppg. Only one single player had a BPM of over 10 last year and it was jokic at 13. Wemby is great but to expect him to turn this thing around with the way the team is constructed right now, even with improvements from all the other players and factoring last years tank, that is an incredible turnaround.
You have to take that -9.82 number into context. It was exacerbated by the team purposefully losing games or simply giving up after a few quarters when the outcome was no longer in doubt. Also, the +0.96 from OKC is an outlier; the expected record of a team with that kind of point differential is 43.5 wins.

Nobody expects Wembanyama alone to increase the win total by 18. That expectation comes from Wembanyama, plus the fact the team is no longer tanking, plus internal improvement, plus the possible addition of free agents that could help the team become more competitive.