NBA In Tiers '23-'24

[TD 21]

Based on a combination of regular season upside + championship equity . . .

Upper Top: Nuggets, Bucks, Celtics, Suns

Lower Top: 76ers, Heat, Lakers, Warriors, Clippers

Upper Middle: Grizzlies, Mavericks, Knicks, Cavaliers, Thunder, Pelicans, Kings

Lower Middle: Timberwolves, Hawks, Bulls, Magic, Pacers, Nets, Raptors

Upper bottom: Jazz, Rockets, Hornets, Pistons

Lower bottom: Spurs, Trail Blazers, Wizards

[bluebellmaniac]

I'd put us in the "Lower Middle" given the Wemby upgrade and that we'll be actually trying to win.

With that said, we'll see every crazy combination you can think of as Pop figures out what he wants and who he wants and where.

[Chinook]

The top of the NBA ladder is about talent, especially when it comes to handicapping contenders. The bottom of the ladder is more about posture than talent. The very bottom rung will be teams either trying to lose or trying to develop rather than win. That next tier is for talented teams trying to tank, non-tankers with shit injury luck, and rebuilding teams in a win-now posture. I think the Spurs can be in the second rung or the first depending on what they want to do. If their talent surprises, they might make that third rung ala Utah last year before they desperately found ways to lose more games.

[Uriel]

It's not clear to me that the Spurs are at the lower bottom. I see them more on the border between lower middle / upper bottom.

[spurraider21]

It's not clear to me that the Spurs are at the lower bottom. I see them more on the border between lower middle / upper bottom.
top 5 team in the west

[SpursFan86]

Assuming a moderately healthy team + no subtle tank-jobs, I’d like to think we’re more in that upper bottom tier. I don’t see why we can’t be in the same mix as teams like Houston/Utah/Detroit.

Ceiling would be “lower middle” but that would require almost a perfect storm: Vassell/Sochan/Branham all taking significant steps forward, Wembanyama proving himself as an immediate high impact player (tough for rookies regardless of talent), Keldon showing drastic improvements thanks to not carrying such a heavy load, etc. It’s certainly possible but again would just require a lot of things going our way.

[Uriel]

top 5 team in the west
I wouldn't go that far, but barring injury, they'd certainly be in the mix for the play-in tournament.

[TD 21]

Assuming a moderately healthy team + no subtle tank-jobs, I’d like to think we’re more in that upper bottom tier. I don’t see why we can’t be in the same mix as teams like Houston/Utah/Detroit.

Ceiling would be “lower middle” but that would require almost a perfect storm: Vassell/Sochan/Branham all taking significant steps forward, Wembanyama proving himself as an immediate high impact player (tough for rookies regardless of talent), Keldon showing drastic improvements thanks to not carrying such a heavy load, etc. It’s certainly possible but again would just require a lot of things going our way.

The Spurs could definitely end up in the "upper bottom". The line between the end of one tier and the beginning of the next is slim.

Unlike the majority of the teams above though, they lack an advantage creator on the perimeter and they're not really trying to win yet or at least there isn't urgency to do so. Expect mad scientist lineups and top players randomly being inactive more than most teams.

[vander]

wow every team in lower top is old and injured. NBA gonna be wide open in '25
OKC dynasty incoming

[John B]

Not for long…

[Cry Havoc]

We're lower than the Pistons? OP is fucking trolling, and poorly at that.

Wemby is worth more by himself than their entire starting 5, and is going to be a better player this season than anyone on their team.

[RC_Drunkford]

Spurs should be a lower middle team, no way they are at the bottom beneath Utah, Charlotte and Detroit

[ambchang]

Nothing would make OP happier to see the spurs suck and prove he’s right all along about his bad PATFO is.

[TD 21]

:lmao At this board, filled with myopic homers, bitter old men and bigots, incapable of having a basketball conversation without trying to push their agenda.

[exstatic]

wow every team in lower top is old and injured. NBA gonna be wide open in '25
OKC Spurs dynasty incoming

[Dejounte]

Upper Top: Nuggets, Bucks, Suns, Lakers
Lower Top: Warriors, Heat, Celtics, Mavericks
Upper Middle: Clippers, Hawks, Thunder, Pacers
Lower Middle: Cavaliers, Spurs, Rockets, 76ers, Magic
Upper Bottom: Blazers, Pistons, Nets, Grizzlies, Pelicans
Lower Bottom: Wizards, Hornets, Bulls, Raptors, Knicks


Hope I didn't miss any team

[Fireball]

Bottom sounds about right ... don't know if its upper or lower part though

[spurraider21]

imo spurs are upper bottom. they were lower bottom last year for sure. but that also involved a team that sold off some solid vet talent at the deadline, and had most of its good young players miss significant time. they were probably closer to a 30 win team but for that, as opposed to a squad like houston who finished as poorly as we did but had all its young key players suit up for 75+ games

yes, wemby helps, but im not sure how much he helps year 1. we also didnt make any other vet improvements. houston has added good young talent too, but also went out and took floor-raising vets like FVV and Brooks. i dont like either signing, but they'll make the rockets better this year. pistons were missing cade cunningham last year, so that should raise their floor a bit too.

assuming lillard trade happens, wizards and blazers are in a tier of their own from a sucking perspective. wizards definitely the worst.

id put spurs/rockets in the same tier as the jazz right now.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

Based on a combination of regular season upside + championship equity . . .

Upper Top: Nuggets, Bucks, Celtics, Suns

Lower Top: 76ers, Heat, Lakers, Warriors, Clippers

Upper Middle: Grizzlies, Mavericks, Knicks, Cavaliers, Thunder, Pelicans, Kings

Lower Middle: Timberwolves, Hawks, Bulls, Magic, Pacers, Nets, Raptors

Upper bottom: Jazz, Rockets, Hornets, Pistons

Lower bottom: Spurs, Trail Blazers, Wizards

I think this is mostly right, especially in the top two tiers.

I would move the Thunder down one tier until we see more. I'd move the Bulls, Nets and Raptors down one level. I'd move the Jazz and Hornets up one. Pistons may belong in the lowest tier as well.

Unfortunately, I think the Spurs are still in the lowest tier, at least until we see some evidence to the contrary. The west won't be great overall, but it should be very competitive from top to bottom. Portland should be the only team outright tanking, barring injuries driving a team to change course and throw the year.

[rascal]

.

[Arcadian]

It's just really difficult to place the Spurs right now, without knowing exactly what the Wemby effect will be. I really need to see how they play with him for a few regulation games.

[exstatic]

It's just really difficult to place the Spurs right now, without knowing exactly what the Wemby effect will be. I really need to see how they play with him for a few regulation games.

By the time that happens, the o/u will rise. That’s why it’s called gambling.

[jjspur]

I see the bottom dwellers as the hornets, wizards, and blazers. All these teams have major issues, so so coaching or lack of decent players (the blazers will lose Lillard and won't get that much in return.) The spurs will be above that group easily. The spurs are moving up, those other teams are trending down or seem to be going in circles.

[CorrectCrusader]

I see the bottom dwellers as the hornets, wizards, and blazers. All these teams have major issues, so so coaching or lack of decent players (the blazers will lose Lillard and won't get that much in return.) The spurs will be above that group easily. The spurs are moving up, those other teams are trending down or seem to be going in circles.

Curious why you expect Charlotte to be bad? They have their core from 2 years ago when they won around 40 games. Barring another Lamelo injury and Turner suspension I wouldn't expect another tank

[exstatic]

Curious why you expect Charlotte to be bad? They have their core from 2 years ago when they won around 40 games. Barring another Lamelo injury and Turner suspension I wouldn't expect another tank

43-39, and they've added Mark Williams and Brandon Miller.

[mudd]

Is all about staying healthy. That dictates where we end up!

[spurraider21]

43-39, and they've added Mark Williams and Brandon Miller.
should probably factor in growth of young guys like lamelo, washington (assuming he's brought back), and the aforementioned williams who was quite productive as a starter.

nick smith could also be an early contributor. remains to be seen though

[exstatic]

should probably factor in growth of young guys like lamelo, washington (assuming he's brought back), and the aforementioned williams who was quite productive as a starter.

nick smith could also be an early contributor. remains to be seen though

Smith will be learning and backing up LaMelo, so I don't expect him to me too much of a factor this season.

[Arcadian]

By the time that happens, the o/u will rise. That’s why it’s called gambling.

That's why I don't gamble.

But also, I didn't think this was strictly a gambling thread. I thought we were just discussing predictions.

[exstatic]

That's why I don't gamble.

But also, I didn't think this was strictly a gambling thread. I thought we were just discussing predictions.

I think it devolved when someone posted the Vegas o/u.

[jjspur]

Curious why you expect Charlotte to be bad? They have their core from 2 years ago when they won around 40 games. Barring another Lamelo injury and Turner suspension I wouldn't expect another tank

I think you said the magic word "injury" . Almost all teams have some type of injuries during the season. Charlotte is no different. They've had a better than .500 record only 3 times in the last 10 years and Vegas has them at about 30-31 wins. Those numbers don't exactly scream play in or playoffs. Again major injuries derailed their record more than a few times.

Sure they got the #2 pick, but he didn't impress that much in summer league. Short of Lonzo Ball, I really don't see any all stars on the team either. I can see a small improvement but I really do see them as a lottery team. Anything can happen and maybe they won't get the #2 pick again but probably still in the lower lottery. The hornets may move up a bit in the standings, just not that much.