Spurs Historical Lineup Analysis, Projecting 2023-24

[scott]

In another thread, I noted that the 5-man lineup with the most minutes for the Spurs last year only put in 189 minutes together. Compare this to the lineup that lead the league in minutes, a Sacramento 5 that logged 900 minutes. That got me wondering how many minutes a "core" 5-man lineup typically puts in under coach Pop, and if we can use that data to project what kind of frequency our core 5 might have this season.

This table outlines a few things I picked out, that you can see.



Year
Lineup
Games
Minutes
NetRtg
2nd 5 Minutes
2nd 5 NetRtg
League Leader Minutes


2007-08
Finley-Bowen-Duncan-Parker-Oberto
49
420
1.9
167
11.0
1210


2008-09
Finley-Duncan-Parker-Mason-Bonner
57
554
8.1
158
5.2
1075


2009-10
McDyess-Duncan-Ginobili-Jefferson-Hill
29
231
10.5
191
10.9
1475


2010-11
Duncan-Ginobili-Jefferson-Parker-Blair
62
688
10.7
229
13.4
953


2011-12
Duncan-Jefferson-Parker-Blair-Leonard
19
190
4.0
147
0.7
1000


2012-13
Duncan-Parker-Splitter-Green-Leonard
31
364
18.1
153
10.8
1307


2013-14
Duncan-Parker-Splitter-Green-Leonard
30
262
13.7
193
5.9
1468


2014-15
Duncan-Parker-Diaw-Green-Leonard
44
266
11.0
265
22.1
1217


2015-16
Duncan-Parker-Aldridge-Green-Leonard
47
698
9.2
185
5.2
915


2016-17
Gasol-Parker-Aldridge-Green-Leonard
34
392
9.4
257
3.9
1347


2017-18
Aldridge-Green-Mills-Anderson-Murray
21
189
12.0
156
8.2
1131


2018-19
Aldridge-Gay-DeRozan-Forbes-White
41
388
4.8
187
-4.6
919


2019-20
Aldridge-DeRozan-Lyles-Murray-Forbes
40
505
0.0
130
10.2
735


2020-21
DeRozan-Murray-Poeltl-White-Johnson
24
333
6.0
219
-12.5
706


2021-22
McDermott-Murray-Poeltl-White-Johnson
25
308
5.4
152
-1.0
761


2022-23
Poeltl-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan
18
189
-0.8
112
-8.0
900



A few observations:

you can really see in the data (though maybe not this table) how the league started load managing. In 2007-08, there were 5 linups that put in over 900 minutes, whereas there was only 1 in 2022-23, and then a big drop off after that one.
in 2008-09 our third most used lineup (Thomas-Finley-Parker-Mason-Bonner) had a Net Rating of 26.4!
our third most used lineup in 2015-16 was the "All Star" lineup of Duncan-Manu-Tony-Aldridge-Leonard and had a Net Rating of 18.5
You can see how good our teams in the mid-teens were. A real shame we only got 1 title out of that
You can see just how terrible last year's team was. The first time a Pop core lineup had a negative net rating (though the 19-20 team came close)


Back when teams were pumping in 1000+ minutes for the core lineups, they were playing 60, 70+ games together. As you can see, that's never really been a thing under Pop. This can be for a multitude of reasons, health being a major one, but for the most part you can expect a lot of lineups and it is unlikely that any one will put in over 500 minutes together on the floor. We will have to see how the health of guys holds up, and if Wemby gets load managed.

Our core 5 had an insane, not at all sustainable NetRtg in the pre-season, it will be interesting to see that develop over time and how it compares to other lineups.

I found all this interesting and potentially informative, hope you do too.

And a source link for anyone who wants to dig in further: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?slug=advanced&Season=2022-23&TeamID=0

[Fizziksman]

Does it take tanking into account?

[spurraider21]

unfathomable that forbes cracked this list twice

[RC_Drunkford]

Another reason why the Spurs should be way better this season is cause Keldon, Vassell and Sochan only played 300 minutes together to ensure the tank

[scott]

And, maybe this will get annoying for people who maybe don't care, but I'll try to update this every 10 games or so with stats on our top lineup combos

[Fizziksman]

Another reason why the Spurs should be way better this season is cause Keldon, Vassell and Sochan only played 300 minutes together to ensure the tank

Yeah Southwest Division is ripe for the taking. Grizz are vunerable.

[scott]

I won't do this after every game, because one game samples aren't really that insightful, but here is lineup performance for each lineup that put in 3 more minutes yesterday



LINEUPS
TEAM
GP
MIN
OFFRTG
DEFRTG
NETRTG
AST%
AST/TO
AST RATIO
OREB%
DREB%
REB%
TO RATIO
EFG%
TS%
PACE
PIE


Z. Collins - K. Johnson - D. Vassell - J. Sochan - V. Wembanyama
SAS (https://www.nba.com/team/1610612759/traditional)
1
11
95.8
104.2
-8.3
87.5
1
20.6
33.3
80
57.9
0.3
52.9
58.6
108.85
50


C. Osman - C. Bassey - D. Vassell - T. Jones - M. Branham
SAS (https://www.nba.com/team/1610612759/traditional)
1
4
122.2
122.2
0
50
1
16.7
33.3
60
50
0.2
64.3
69.8
116.76
52.9


C. Osman - K. Johnson - C. Bassey - T. Jones - M. Branham
SAS (https://www.nba.com/team/1610612759/traditional)
1
4
112.5
162.5
-50
75
0
23.1
50
66.7
55.6
0
45
45
101.95
37


C. Osman - Z. Collins - K. Johnson - D. Vassell - J. Sochan
SAS (https://www.nba.com/team/1610612759/traditional)
1
3
75
157.1
-82.1
100
1.5
27.3
0
66.7
33.3
0.3
60
60
134.16
35.9


C. Osman - Z. Collins - K. Johnson - D. Vassell - T. Jones
SAS (https://www.nba.com/team/1610612759/traditional)
1
3
116.7
133.3
-16.7
66.7
2
20
75
100
83.3
0.2
50
50
105.37
34.5


D. McDermott - Z. Collins - K. Johnson - D. Vassell - J. Sochan
SAS (https://www.nba.com/team/1610612759/traditional)
1
3
114.3
57.1
57.1
33.3
0.5
12.5
0
83.3
71.4
0.3
75
69.4
105.55
123.1

[KingKev]

Nice work sir!!

[bluebellmaniac]

And, maybe this will get annoying for people who maybe don't care, but I'll try to update this every 10 games or so with stats on our top lineup combos

Sweeeeeet!!!

[TD 21]

Preview of what's to come offensively for this starting lineup. If Jones has in fact turned himself into a credible enough 3 point shooter for the defense to respect (even if he's legit, that'll take a minute), he might be able to save them from inevitable bottom of the barrel status.

[KingKev]

Preview of what's to come offensively for this starting lineup. If Jones has in fact turned himself into a credible enough 3 point shooter for the defense to respect (even if he's legit, that'll take a minute), he might be able to save them from inevitable bottom of the barrel status.

Tre Jones looks so damn grown man. His pace, his build, his newly found 3pt shot, his demeanour. He really could help Wemby become the lob threat he is.

[poopbox]

Best thread on spurstalk in awhile

[scott]

Couldn't resist a 3 game updates. There is pretty clear standout data here from a VERY early sample size. (Only included lineups that have played all 3 games and over 5 minutes).



Lineup
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama
32
75.0
108.3
-33.3
1.06
47.9
39.3
108.91
30.3


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Wembanyama
13
103.7
92.3
11.4
1.67
51.7
40.0
100.98
74.6


Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan
10
83.3
129.2
-45.8
1.00
29.4
57.1
117.55
33.7


Osman-Bassey-Jones-Branham-Wembanyama
7
117.6
77.8
39.9
2.50
40.0
66.7
114.42
67.2


Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones
6
133.3
138.5
-5.1
1.00
80
72.7
101.69
35.9



Notes:

I included PIE in this table, although I don't like PIE for a couple of reasons. But I included it anyway just to give you a gauge of how efficient certain lineups are compared to others.
This will likely be the standard table I used to update throughout the reason. I might start looking at some 3-man lineups once the sample size increases.


Observations:

There are a couple of very obvious correlations here, but I wouldn't read too much into it now given the very small sample size. But it kind of backs up common sense and things most of us can see with our own eyes.
Turnovers! The better lineups are the ones that don't turn the ball over! Duh!
Sochan! The top two lineups only have one difference between them: Tre in for Jeremy. The results are STARK. I think we should be starting Tre, but that doesn't mean this can't turn around.

But because I can, through 3 games:
Jeremy: -0.014 WS/48, -5.7 OBPM, -1.5 DBPM, -7.1 BPM, -0.1 VORP, -48
Tre: 0.127 WS/48, -0.4 OBPM, -1.4 DBPM, -1.8 BPM, 0.0 VORP, +15


See ya at the next update :lol

[spurraider21]

for all of Tre's issues, he is generally quite good at taking care of the ball, has had good assist/to ratios for his career, so those figures arent surprising

its also why his 4 TOs against the clippers was very disappointing. didnt expect him to spearhead a comeback, but didnt think he would contribute to the main problem either

[scott]

The increase in the AST/TO ratio with Tre in for Jeremy didn't surprise me, that could be expected, but it's the stark improvement in the DRTG that stands out in this very limited sample size. Jeremy is supposed to be a defensive ace who can guard multiple positions, yet our D is markedly worse with him in the lineup. Obviously, this can be for a number of reasons and I'll once again state THIS IS VERY LIMITED SAMPLE size, but the early trends cannot go ignored. If I get time I'll run some 3-man lineups and see if there is a constant around Jeremy's D. (And 3 man lineups by their nature will yield a larger, but still not yet large enough, sample size)

[spurraider21]

aside from the houston game, you can say its just a matchup issue

guy spent most of his minutes against dallas on luka, and ditto with kawhi

would figure he'd fare better against reserves, and the defensive rating would reflect that.

then again we invested a top 10 pick in him because he's supposed to be that guy. maybe its just too early and he's too young to have that expectation i dno. but then it would be equally unfair to him to just throw him out at point guard

[RC_Drunkford]

The increase in the AST/TO ratio with Tre in for Jeremy didn't surprise me, that could be expected, but it's the stark improvement in the DRTG that stands out in this very limited sample size. Jeremy is supposed to be a defensive ace who can guard multiple positions, yet our D is markedly worse with him in the lineup. Obviously, this can be for a number of reasons and I'll once again state THIS IS VERY LIMITED SAMPLE size, but the early trends cannot go ignored. If I get time I'll run some 3-man lineups and see if there is a constant around Jeremy's D. (And 3 man lineups by their nature will yield a larger, but still not yet large enough, sample size)

if you make shots on offense you can set your defense. That alone makes the defense with Tre Jones out there better

[scott]

Seven games in and we have 5 lineups that have played more than 10 minutes together. The starting 5 lineup has improved since the last update, but the analysis of 5-man lineups still provides plenty of fuel for those who don't like Sochan at the point: simply replacing him with Jones yields one of our best lineups. There will be some shuffling of our top lines with Vassell out over the next few games of course.



Lineup
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama
48
83.0
107.5
-24.5
1.58
48.0
44.3
106.52
38.2


Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama
24
107.8
127.5
-19.6
1.88
53.2
54.4
101.44
46.7


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Wembanyama
16
114.3
85.3
29.0
2.00
52.8
44.6
100.49
79.5


Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan
11
82.1
129.6
-47.5
1.00
30.0
55.9
115.12
30.5


McDermott-COllins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan
11
116.0
92.6
23.4
1.75
52.4
65.0
110.28
59.4

[scott]

Update after 10 Games. One note, I've seen some smart analytics folks comment that line-up data is still too early to draw too many conclusions to, you really need about 1000 possessions before the data becomes statistically significant, and no player has put in more than 818 possessions so far this year. But in any event, here are our 5 most common lineups:



Lineup
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama
76
90.4
104.2
-13.8
1.47
51.2
46.8
105.74
43.03


Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama
37
100.0
144.6
-44.6
2.20
46.3
50.0
97.32
36.9


Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan
16
94.7
115.8
-21.1
1.57
34.4
57.1
112.82
42.3


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Wembanyama
16
114.3
85.3
29.0
2.00
52.8
44.6
100.49
79.5


McDermott-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan
13
120.0
100.0
20.0
1.80
52.2
59.6
109.53
57.9



We've seen some major improvement in the numbers from the starting 5, which is good to see, however, Jones for Sochan (though on a much lower sample size) is still the sub that yields our best lineup.

I was surprised to see that Lineup #3, with fast pace and good shooting, still be such a net negative. Osman for Wemby is usually our first sub of the game around the 6 minute mark, and you can see the hit our defense takes for a slight improvement in ORtg, which isn't surprising since Wemby has started poorly in almost every game.

We only have four lineups with more than 10 minutes with a positive Net Rating (our starting lineup is the 5th best lineup). Not surprisingly, our closing lineup (and what many would prefer be our starting lineup) is by far our best lineup so far this season, though a very small sample size over only 4 games played together.



Lineup
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby
11
153.6
96.6
57.0
2.75
42.9
87.5
124.31
78.9


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Wembanyama
16
114.3
85.3
29.0
2.00
52.8
44.6
100.49
79.5


Osman-Bassey-Jones-Branham-Wembanyama
11
92.3
69.2
23.1
1.20
48.0
52.2
111.51
59.2


McDermott-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan
13
120.0
100.0
20.0
1.80
52.2
69.6
109.53
57.9



All of the below are a min of 10 minutes played.

Our best lineup by ORtg is that Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby lineup above. Second is Osman-Collins-Johnson-Jones-Branham in 10 minutes over 6 games.

Our best defensive lineup by DRtg is Osman-Bassey-Jones-Branham-Wemby in 11 minutes over 5 games. #2 is Collins-Keldon-Dev-Tre-Wemby.

Our worst lineup by ORtg is the starting 5, followed by our best defensive lineup listed in the point above.

Our worst lineup by DRtg is Osman-Collins-Johnson-Branham-Jones with a 166.7 in 10 minutes over 6 games. Next is Collins-Johnson-Bran-Sochan-Wemby, our second most played lineup with 37 minutes.

Our two most efficiency lineups, as measured by PIE (which is a metric similar to PER) is the Jones in for Sochan lineup at 79.5, followed by the "Closing" lineup at 78.9.

I'll do another update at 20 games if not before.

[RC_Drunkford]

Great content

[rjv]

Update after 10 Games. One note, I've seen some smart analytics folks comment that line-up data is still too early to draw too many conclusions to, you really need about 1000 possessions before the data becomes statistically significant, and no player has put in more than 818 possessions so far this year. But in any event, here are our 5 most common lineups:


considering the youth of this squad, the lack of a specific scheme and the fact that sochan is playing a position that is brand new to him, i would think that even 1,000 possessions is too small a sample size.

[rjv]

the one thing that this metric certainly confirms is just how much of a drop off there is from our tier 1 talent to our tier 2 talent.

[bluebellmaniac]

Yes, excellent stuff. We appreciate the meat being brought to the party.

[scott]

A 20 game (Actually 21) update:

We have exactly 5 lineups who have played together 20 or more minutes, so here they are:



Lineup
GP
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama
11
88
83.8
110.8
-17.1
1.51
51.6
47.8
104.76
41.8


Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama
10
84
110.6
126.3
-15.7
1.96
51.9
56.6
102.9
45.7


Collins-Johnson-Champagnie-Sochan-Wembanyama
3
34
114.7
108.6
6.1
1.83
55.9
54.9
98.77
50.3


Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wembanyama
8
21
132.0
90.7
41.3
2.83
43.2
65.5
119.61
70.2


Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan
9
20
95.7
113.6
-18.0
1.2
38.9
55.9
110.39
41.7



The starting lineup that most of us want but Pop refuses to play, Tre-Dev-KJ-Sochan-Wemby continues to be our best lineup by a wide margin in pretty much every measure other than rebounding.

[scott]

30 game Update. I set the cutoff at 25 minutes.

Notably, the lineup that was the most played at the 21 game mark (Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby) has not played a single minute together since. There has been a definite shift away from the Sochan PG with Collins/Wemby line. Our second most frequent line at the last update (now 3rd most frequent) also has not logged another minute since (not surprising, since that lineup is just subbing Dev for Bran).

Also, the new starting lineup IS A NET POSITIVE!!!! Not really very good offensively, but a sub 100 D-Rtg! Amazing! ou can also see the impact of Wemby versus Collins by comparing lineup 1 vs lineup 4, which simply subs Wemby out for Zach. There is a startling difference there, with a 24.9 NetRtg swing. Tough look for a guy who just got a big extension.

Last note on 5-man lineups, the lineup a lot of people think should be the starting 5 (Jones-Vassell-Johnson-Sochan-Wemby) remains far and away our best lineup with a 25.9 NetRtg. We may not be professionals on this board, but we can see things that are obvious. Rebounding predictably suffers with that unit, as Jeremy has proven to be an underwhelming rebounder.




Lineup
GP
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


1
Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama
8
88
102.0
99.5
2.5
1.5
50.5
53.6
108.4
51.3


2
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama
11
88
83.8
110.8
-17.1
1.51
51.6
47.8
104.76
41.8


3
Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama
10
84
110.6
126.3
-15.7
1.96
51.9
56.6
102.9
45.7


4
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan
10
38
93.5
115.9
-22.4
1.38
52.4
46.3
112.85
35.8


5
Collins-Johnson-Champagnie-Sochan-Wembanyama
3
34
114.7
108.6
6.1
1.83
55.9
54.9
98.77
50.3


6
Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones
14
28
106.3
119.0
-12.8
1.73
51.6
53.6
109.57
42.7


7
Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wembanyama
11
27
131.7
105.9
25.9
2.75
40.7
65.7
114.63
60.9

[spurraider21]

there definitely arent enough (if any) minutes to wonder what that "ideal" lineup looks like but if they can get away with shampenny in there instead of keldon, to keep the keldon bench thing going

[scott]

there definitely arent enough (if any) minutes to wonder what that "ideal" lineup looks like but if they can get away with shampenny in there instead of keldon, to keep the keldon bench thing going

Great call out, I completely spaced for a moment and forgot Keldon is on the bench unit now and that Lineup 1 is NOT the current starting 5.

Here is the current starting 5's numbers:



Lineup
GP
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


Vassell-Champagnie-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama
4
23
133.3
115.2
18.1
3.0
40.0
72.4
95.44
64.5



The good news - even better than the other lineup! Definitely benefits from an insane EFG% on a small sample size in just 4 games. We'll see how this one pans out. Also, rebounding a concern for this unit as well and the Defense is not up to the same level as with Johnson in over Champ.

One note, Pace doesn't apparer correlated with NetRtg. Some high pace lineups are good, some are bad.

[spurraider21]

1745519944396067045

[scott]

^Amazing how the amateur's on this website were able to see this from the get-go, while the professional basketball coaches who actual get paid to do this insisted on these other mutated lineups.

[spurraider21]

^Amazing how the amateur's on this website were able to see this from the get-go, while the professional basketball coaches who actual get paid to do this insisted on these other mutated lineups.
not to mention all the local beat writers semen shielding for pop before the obvious change was made

and then being incredibly petty after the change was made

1742960237529948213

1743043648659275978

[CorrectCrusader]

^Amazing how the amateur's on this website were able to see this from the get-go, while the professional basketball coaches who actual get paid to do this insisted on these other mutated lineups.

Sniffers on suicide watch

[spurraider21]

:lol not surprisingly, the worst 3 man rotation including wemby (with the same 200 min qualifier) is wemby/sochan/branham

doesnt take a basketball genius to identify this stuff

[spurraider21]

as you increase the size of the lineup to 4 or 5, there simply arent that many lineups that meet the minute threshold

if i filter 5 man lineups with more than 25 minutes, the two best lineups are wemby/vassell/tre/sochan/keldon (+27) and wemby/vassell/tre/sochan/champagnie (+17)

but when the sample sizes are that low, they are prone to all kinds of noise, like the latter lineup benefitting a ton from the pistons game given that they have a total of 39 minutes together

[dbestpro]

Historically, do you think Pop will take a hint from Bellichek?

[Seventyniner]

^Amazing how the amateur's on this website were able to see this from the get-go, while the professional basketball coaches who actual get paid to do this insisted on these other mutated lineups.

Either the coaching staff truly is that incompetent or it was just cover for a (hopefully final) tank job.

I have a feeling players, and maybe even coaches, will be willing to talk about this around August or September.

[RC_Drunkford]

Pop got bailed out by a bunch of injuries that forced him to start Tre, just like I called it. Otherwise he never would've found out,

[RC_Drunkford]

Either the coaching staff truly is that incompetent or it was just cover for a (hopefully final) tank job.

I have a feeling players, and maybe even coaches, will be willing to talk about this around August or September.

that has been the narrative for the past 5 years. Maybe Pop is just a fuckin idiot? The old man told Bam Adebayo he wasn't ready and thought Mason Plumlee was the better player.

[spurraider21]

that has been the narrative for the past 5 years. Maybe Pop is just a fuckin idiot? The old man told Bam Adebayo he wasn't ready and thought Mason Plumlee was the better player.
bam and thad young got into it during practice and both were basically kicked off

[DAF86]

Pop got bailed out by a bunch of injuries that forced him to start Tre, just like I called it. Otherwise he never would've found out,

I give Pop a ton of shit but I think he knew all along that the team would do better with Tre at PG. But he also knows that Tre (and therefore the team as a whole) has a very clear ceiling, so he wanted to experiment and see if higher ceiling players could grab the PG spot. But I'm pretty sure he never expected the Spurs to suck as bad as they did while he experimented.

[spurraider21]

1750534426440667405

[R. DeMurre]

If nothing else, these kinds of advanced stats will change the playing field for those still arguing that Chet has better "efficiency" and therefore a legit case for ROY.

[R. DeMurre]

Another positive to glean from this: if the Spurs can get another legit PG-- not even a great one, but one as good or just barely better than Tre-- they'll get full coverage of legit PG play to go with Wemby's court time next season. That would be huge. One of the reasons I liked Quickley so much for this team.

[scott]

Good stuff! I'll have an update to lineup stats soon!

[ginobilized]

1750534426440667405

This is fascinating..........Spurs have the Number 1 defense on this list. Thanks for sharing!

[spurraider21]

This is fascinating..........Spurs have the Number 1 defense on this list. Thanks for sharing!
Vassell's man to man defense aint bad, and he has pretty good physical tools for it. he does have a knack for losing focus off-ball though. gives up cuts, etc

[CGD]

I think the truth nukes the Bulls announcer had last month for the Spurs is starting to set in:

https://x.com/BalaPattySZN/status/1738034060696367365?s=20

[scott]

Here is an update as we sit at 10-36. Right now we are projecting towards our top lineup playing around 200-250 minutes together this season. These are ordered by minutes played. I included all lineups with over 48 minutes played and threw in a few others to highlight some things.



Lineup
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **NEW SL**
144
121.6
109.3
12.3
2.42
52.0
60.9
105.03
55.7


Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan-Wemby **SL 2**
88
102.0
99.5
2.5
1.5
50.5
53.6
108.40
51.3


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby **ORIG SL**
88
93.8
110.8
-17.1
1.51
51.6
47.8
104.76
41.8


Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wemby
84
110.6
126.3
-15.7
1.96
51.9
56.2
102.9
45.7


Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby **CLOSING 5?**
60
130.7
97.9
32.8
3.20
45.7
62.4
111.18
68.2


Vassell-Champ-Branham-Sochan-Wemby
44
111.2
122.0
-10.7
2.15
41.5
59.3
98.93
50.0


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan **ANTI-DEATH**
41
86.9
124.2
-37.3
1.06
51.1
44.6
112.25
28.7


Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Barlow **DOM FOR VIC**
24
132.7
122.4
10.2
3.75
54.5
53.9
98.34
49.6


Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Collins **ZACH FOR VIC**
16
81.8
111.8
-29.9
1.0
46.4
54.3
103.52
37.5



A few observations:

Hey, our current starting lineup is pretty good!
the SL that had Branham in for Jones wasn't terrible (and was actually really good defensively), but you can see what a difference having Jones in there at PG makes, especially on our AST/TO ratio
Compare that to our original SL and you can see what atrocious basketball that was leading to.
Our closing 5 lineup is REALLY good. Weak on the boards would be the main criticism there.
Look at that bench unit with Collins and Branham in. Yuck. Avoid at all costs.
I included the last two because it is a direct look at Vic coming out and Zach or Dom coming in for him. It is a limited sample size, but a MASSIVE 40 pt NetRtg swing. Just goes to show how bad Zach has been this season.

[CorrectCrusader]

Here is an update as we sit at 10-36. Right now we are projecting towards our top lineup playing around 200-250 minutes together this season. These are ordered by minutes played. I included all lineups with over 48 minutes played and threw in a few others to highlight some things.



Lineup
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **NEW SL**
144
121.6
109.3
12.3
2.42
52.0
60.9
105.03
55.7


Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan-Wemby **SL 2**
88
102.0
99.5
2.5
1.5
50.5
53.6
108.40
51.3


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby **ORIG SL**
88
93.8
110.8
-17.1
1.51
51.6
47.8
104.76
41.8


Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wemby
84
110.6
126.3
-15.7
1.96
51.9
56.2
102.9
45.7


Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby **CLOSING 5?**
60
130.7
97.9
32.8
3.20
45.7
62.4
111.18
68.2


Vassell-Champ-Branham-Sochan-Wemby
44
111.2
122.0
-10.7
2.15
41.5
59.3
98.93
50.0


Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan **ANTI-DEATH**
41
86.9
124.2
-37.3
1.06
51.1
44.6
112.25
28.7


Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Barlow **DOM FOR VIC**
24
132.7
122.4
10.2
3.75
54.5
53.9
98.34
49.6


Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Collins **ZACH FOR VIC**
16
81.8
111.8
-29.9
1.0
46.4
54.3
103.52
37.5



A few observations:

Hey, our current starting lineup is pretty good!
the SL that had Branham in for Jones wasn't terrible (and was actually really good defensively), but you can see what a difference having Jones in there at PG makes, especially on our AST/TO ratio
Compare that to our original SL and you can see what atrocious basketball that was leading to.
Our closing 5 lineup is REALLY good. Weak on the boards would be the main criticism there.
Look at that bench unit with Collins and Branham in. Yuck. Avoid at all costs.
I included the last two because it is a direct look at Vic coming out and Zach or Dom coming in for him. It is a limited sample size, but a MASSIVE 40 pt NetRtg swing. Just goes to show how bad Zach has been this season.



That closing lineup rating is insane.

[JPB]

1750534426440667405

Max batum tbh.

[TimmehC]

That closing lineup is incredible. Amazing what happens when you put the most talented players on the team together.

[scott]

Update at 54 games played, cutoff at 30 minutes:




Lineup
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


1
Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **NEW SL**
212
117.7
112.8
4.9
2.24
51.4
58.4
102.11
53.0


2
Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan-Wemby **SL 2**90
90
102.5
100.0
2.5
1.50
50.0
53.3
107.6
51.3


3
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby **ORIG SL**
88
93.8
110.8
-17.1
1.51
51.6
47.8
104.76
41.8


4
Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wemby
84
110.6
126.3
-15.7
1.96
51.9
56.2
102.9
45.7


5
Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby **CLOSING 5?**
77
117.4
96.6
20.8
2.85
47.3
57.0
110.25
63.9


6
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan
45
104.9
10.39
1.0
1.6
45.1
63.2
108.87
52.3


7
Vassell-Champ-Branham-Sochan-Wemby
44
111.2
122.0
-10.7
2.15
41.5
59.3
98.93
50.0


8
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan **ANTI-DEATH**
42
86.0
124.2
-38.2
1.0
51.1
44.6
112.19
28.4


9
McDermott-Osman-Johnson-Jones-Wemby
39
91.0
109.1
-18.1
1.75
48.2
46.0
107.96
45.1


10
McDermott-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby
35
98.7
98.6
0.1
1.53
53.9
58.5
103.21
61.3


11
Collins-Johnson-Champ-Sochan-Wemby
34
114.7
108.6
6.1
1.83
55.9
54.9
98.77
50.3


12
Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones
31
106.8
112.7
-5.8
2.0
52.7
50.8
111.01
47.1



Notes:

Zero minutes logged for lineups 3,4 and 6 (and only 2 minutes logged for lineup 2) since the last update. We'll call that good coaching decisions.
Starting 5 has come down to earth a little since the last update, but still a solid net positive lineup
Closing 5 lineup has come back down to earth in regards to their ORTG, but their DRTG has actually IMPROVED since the last update (8 games)
The Anti-Death lineup snuck in 1 more minute since the last update and managed to get worse. Impressive, actually.
Two Doug lineups made their way into the top 10, but weren't very good (though Lineup 10 had a nice DRTG). RIP Doug.
Lineup 11 is a newcomer, and has only played 3 games together, but have logged 34 minutes, which is a lot. Not a terrible lineup, surprisingly. One of our best rebounding lineups

[spurraider21]

3-man lineup of Wemby/Vassell/Jones has a 10.2 net rating, best on the team when you add a minutes criteria of 80 or so

top used 3-man lineups overall:
https://i.gyazo.com/5e8b1dd02c8bf83321f2474fd47bff51.png

a) collins' impact has been abysmal
b) its pretty amusing that sochan/tre/wemby outperforms sochan/vassell/wemby because the former rules out all the point sochan minutes :lol

[scott]

Figured it was time for an update. Cutoff is at 48 minutes. 10 games to go.




Lineup
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


1
Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **NEW SL**
380
114.1
112.0
2.1
2.25
51.7
56.8
103.24
52.4


2
Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby **CLOSING 5**
139
115.8
96.2
19.6
2.42
52.2
55.8
109.21
62.1


3
Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama
101
102.2
102.7
-0.4
67.1
59.3
52.1
107.08
49.3


4
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan
98
107.1
112.6
-5.4
1.97
47.4
57.8
103.98
47.1


5
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama
88
93.8
110.8
-17.1
1.51
51.6
47.8
104.76
41.8


6
Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama
84
110.6
126.3
-15.7
1.96
51.9
56.2
102.9
45.7


7
Osman-Johnson-Branham-Wesley-Wembanyama
75
95.2
99.4
-4.2
2.19
49.7
49.3
105.42
51.2


8
Collins-Vassell-Jones-Champagnie-Sochan
66
92.3
94.4
-2.1
1.87
56.4
52.1
103.52
51.3


9
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan
62
86.9
121.1
-34.2
1.07
52.3
43.0
110.98
29.2


10
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Wesley-Sochan
48
106.5
108.3
-1.93
1.93
55.2
51.0
107.61
49.0



Notes:

"New" starting lineup (new in quotes since it's started 35 games together) has lost some of it's efficiency but is still a net positive
The "closing 5" lineup remains very good!
Branham's impact really stands out when you look at his NetRtg On/Off. Lineup 2 v Lineup 3 (Branham for Jones) is a -20.0 swing. Lineup 9 vs 10 (Branham for Wesley) is a -32.3 swing :lol
Collins and Wemby line ups have gotten a little more run (lineups 5 and 6)... but they are very very bad and should stop
Obvious huge correlation between AST/TO ratio and NetRtg, but also a little bit of a correlation with REB%. The dropoff in REB% when Collins is in for Wemby is noticeable

[scott]

Aloha Mijitos,

Have no fear, I'm back to keep this going with our best lineups now that we're 12 games into the season.

Right off the bat, I'm happy to report that once again the Spurs have one of the best 5-man lineups in the entire league. If I set the cutoff at 48 minutes, the Spurs have the #2 NETRTG lineup in the league with our current starting 5 of Paul-Barnes-Champ-Castle-Wemby. This lineup would be #1 in the league if we set the cutoff at 51 minutes. Good stuff.

12 games in, here are all of our lineups, sorted by NETRTG, with a minimum of 12 minutes played




Lineup
GP
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
EFG%
Pace
PIE


1
Collins-Johnson-Champ-Branham-Castle
5
17
127.8
86.8
40.9
2.5
48.6
63.8
102.65
69.9


2
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Castle-Wemby **CURRENT SL**
7
64
126.5
93.3
33.1
2.2
55.9
63.1
101.39
66.0


3
Paul-Barnes-Johnson-Sochan-Wemby
6
26
113.2
81.8
31.4
1.8
63.1
51.0
100.99
70.9


4
Paul-Barnes-Collins-Champ-Sochan
5
12
133.3
123.1
10.3
2.67
50.0
75.0
109.97
57.0


5
Paul-Barnes-Johnson-Champ-Wemby
5
18
113.2
105.4
7.8
2.75
52.6
51.4
100.44
61.5


6
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **OLD SL**
7
75
101.3
113.5
-12.3
1.63
49.7
51.8
101.06
48.8


7
Collins-Johnson-Wesley-Sochan-Castle
3
13
120.0
136.0
-16.0
1.5
55.0
54.5
95.62
41.1


8
Johnson-Champ-Bran-Wemby-Castle
5
19
71.1
131.6
-60.5
1.2
54.3
41.9
95.92
20.1


9
Paul-Johnson-Sochan-Wemby-Castle
4
12
81.0
145.5
-64.5
0.5
52.5
35.3
88.10
16.7



Notes:

Current starting lineup is good, and considerably better than the old SL. I think some of this can be attributed to Wemby making shots that he wasn't before, but most notable to me are the defensive improvements and the improvement in rebounding on the new SL. DREB% increases from 72.6 to 83.3% with the new SL
Not surprisingly, TOs seems to be a key driver. All our negative NETRTG lineups feature considerably worse AST/TO ratios. I did not include this in the table, but the AST RATIO also shows a clear separation between the positive NETRTG lineups (all of them have an AST RATIO over 20) versus the netgative NETRTG lineups (all of them below 20)
REB% really takes a big hit when Collins is in for Wemby. This is one of the reasons I'd like to see Bassey get some more run depending on matchup. He grades out as an elite defensive rebounder if you look at his DREB%. I've seen enough of Zubac and Big Daddy Val put up epic REB (and specifically OREB) numbers. Against big, physical Cs, I think it would make sense for Bassey to get some minutes.
Something we should have all noticed with our eyes, pace is a lot slower so far this year.
It was surprising to me to see Sochan show up more on negative lineups than positive ones. Not going to read too much into that quite yet.
Lineup #9 you'd think would be good defensively, but WOOF it's been bad in the 4 games they played together.
Lineup #8 is more of a "4 shooter" lineup, but in the 5 games they've featured... shooting has not been good.

[Dejounte]

IMO, Sochan was the best player in most of the games he played in and nobody else was stepping up. It’s no surprise most of the lineups he’s in has been bad. Nobody was clicking in those early games and Wemby has only started to find his groove. When everyone’s firing on all cylinders, it’s going to be scary as fuck for the league.

[scott]

We're approximately 20% into the season, so I thought it would be a good time for an update.

Let's start with the good news. The Spurs have the #1 5-man lineup in NETRTG in the entire league, with a minimum of 75 minutes played, with the Paul-Castle-Champ-Barnes-Wemby lineup that is our current starting 5 (assuming Wemby is healthy). You might recall, last year's "Closing 5" lineup of Jones-Vassell-Johnson-Sochan-Wemby was also very good. I actually didn't do an end-of-season update last year, but that lineup finished #3 in the NBA in NETRTG with a minimum of 120 minutes played (finishing with a NETRTG of 20.8).

When Vassell and Sochan are healthy, Mitch (or Pop) may have some difficult political choices to make. I'd be inclined to not try and fix something that is not broken, and leave the starting 5 as is (at least until we can see how 5-man lineups with those two compare). This will obviously be difficult given the stature of Devin and Jeremy on the team.

I've tightened up the requirements since the last update, and we'll go with a minimum of 15 minutes played. I've denoted with an asterisks any lineups which have not played since the last update (such as lineup #1 on the list). I've also replaced EFG% with TS% in the table, because I think that is more widely used and relied upon these days.




Lineup
GP
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
TS%
Pace
PIE


1
Collins-Johnson-Champ-Branham-Castle*
5
17
127.8
86.8
40.9
2.5
48.6
68.9
102.65
69.9


2
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Castle-Wemby **CURRENT SL**
8
76
128.8
93.1
35.7
2.41
55.9
67.3
100.69
67.2


3
Paul-Barnes-Johnson-Sochan-Wemby*
6
26
113.2
81.8
31.4
1.8
63.1
55.6
100.99
70.9


4
Barnes-Johnson-Bassey-Jones-Castle
3
18
120.5
110.5
10.0
1.83
47.4
61.1
104.64
51.5


5
Paul-Barnes-Johnson-Champ-Wemby*
5
18
113.2
105.4
7.8
2.75
52.6
55.8
100.44
61.5


6
Paul-Barnes-Collins-Champ-Castle (Wemby Hurt SL)
5
33
101.4
104.2
-2.8
1.85
55.1
51.5
104.25
49.6


7
Barnes-Collins-Johnson-Vassel-Castle
4
18
118.4
122.5
-4.1
2.5
44.1
62.9
103..06
44.1


8
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **OLD SL**
7
75
101.3
113.5
-12.3
1.63
49.7
51.8
101.06
48.8


9
Johnson-Champ-Bran-Wemby-Castle*
5
19
71.1
131.6
-60.5
1.2
54.3
41.9
95.92
20.1



Notes:

This is not to pick on Zollins, but you can see the massive impact Wemby has by comparing lineup 2 with lineup 6 where Collins replaces Wemby in the SL. A massive 38.5 swing in NETRTG. A different unit featuring Zollins (lineup 1) hasn't played in the last 4 games, but it was playing very well to start the season (leading the team in NETRTG)
A Bassey lineup enters the chat in Lineup #4


We really need to figure out some bench units that work. Our SL is doing WORK, but we're obviously 8-8. This isn't a team that should tank... we can easily be in Play-In contention, or maybe better, if we wanted to if we can improve our rotations.

[scott]

Not going to do a full update, since it's only been a handful of games since the last one... but saw this on Reddit and thought it worth sharing:

https://i.redd.it/cp4zkvstb25e1.jpeg

Also, after that pathetic outing versus Phoenix, the Spurs SL fell from the #1 five-man lineup in the league to #4 (min 75 minutes played). I'll at least update that line:




GP
MIN
ORTG
DRTG
NETRTG
AST/TO
REB%
TS%
PACE
PIE


Paul-Barnes-Champ-Wemby-Castle
13
143
126.8
107.5
19.3
2.71
50.9
64.8
98.67
58.4



It's noteable to me that we are the slowest pace team among the top lineups, which is counter to last year when our best lineups played with significant more pace

[exstatic]

Not going to do a full update, since it's only been a handful of games since the last one... but saw this on Reddit and thought it worth sharing:

https://i.redd.it/cp4zkvstb25e1.jpeg

Also, after that pathetic outing versus Phoenix, the Spurs SL fell from the #1 five-man lineup in the league to #4 (min 75 minutes played). I'll at least update that line:




GP
MIN
ORTG
DRTG
NETRTG
AST/TO
REB%
TS%
PACE
PIE


Paul-Barnes-Champ-Wemby-Castle
13
143
126.8
107.5
19.3
2.71
50.9
64.8
98.67
58.4



It's noteable to me that we are the slowest pace team among the top lineups, which is counter to last year when our best lineups played with significant more pace

I was pissed that we didn’t run on the Lakers. They’re paper thin, and their best two players are old.

[scott]

I was pissed that we didn’t run on the Lakers. They’re paper thin, and their best two players are old.

All of our CP3 lineups roll at a slower pace, which isn't surprising. One of my complaints with CP3 is how much he slows the pace in bringing the ball up the court. This may be a CP3 thing, or could be a deliberate coaching directive.

[exstatic]

All of our CP3 lineups roll at a slower pace, which isn't surprising. One of my complaints with CP3 is how much he slows the pace in bringing the ball up the court. This may be a CP3 thing, or could be a deliberate coaching directive.

I think it’s a CP3 thing. He slows down the teams he goes to.

[scott]

Posted in another thread, but thought I'd put here as well. Here are all the two-man combinations involving Wemby. Everyone was excited about the Wemby-Devin combo based on what we saw at the end of last year... but turns out so far this year Devin is actually by far the worst partner for Wemby, rivaled only by Branhim, who is probably the worst player in the entire league.

https://i.ibb.co/M6hZxvS/twoman.png

Problematic when your highest paid player is the worst pairing with your franchise player.

[The Truth #6]

Great chart. Blake has the highest net rating with VW; MB has the worst. For everyone up at night debating Blake vs Branham, that is pretty clear statistically.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Great chart. Blake has the highest net rating with VW; MB has the worst. For everyone up at night debating Blake vs Branham, that is pretty clear statistically.

Blake deserves a lot more minutes, he barely played in the second half last night

[The Truth #6]

This is the year and the time to see what's going on with Blake, especially with Jones injured. That said, he still makes some low bbq decisions but he's trying very hard and could easily find a limited but long career.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

Posted in another thread, but thought I'd put here as well. Here are all the two-man combinations involving Wemby. Everyone was excited about the Wemby-Devin combo based on what we saw at the end of last year... but turns out so far this year Devin is actually by far the worst partner for Wemby, rivaled only by Branhim, who is probably the worst player in the entire league.


Problematic when your highest paid player is the worst pairing with your franchise player.

I'd give the Vassell/Wemby combo a little larger sample size than 125 minutes before making any declarative statements, especially since Vassell has been in and out of the lineup and dealing with injury. I don't know that he's had much time to get into a rhythm this season with anyone. Still, -20.5 is a huge number.

[scott]

I'd give the Vassell/Wemby combo a little larger sample size than 125 minutes before making any declarative statements, especially since Vassell has been in and out of the lineup and dealing with injury. I don't know that he's had much time to get into a rhythm this season with anyone. Still, -20.5 is a huge number.

I agree that they need more time. We're a third into the season, but 125 minutes is only 10% of the amount of time (1,222 minutes) they played together last season.

[Spurminator]

:lol

https://i.imgur.com/CnfroT3.png
https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAi4AAAAnCAIAAAC nuFRpAAAOCElEQVR4Ae2bX2gbRx7HB GHJU/inpaQB4v2waJ9OHF5iGhe4tCHqOQhPvLgDXkwG4NrxQSjNBDUQ Dl8DTVq4Xw6cxg5peFkqGFDMawPCjIcAeVIOIWQssJnKuM6ZdP 6kiWncBuimDl s/9mpfXfyCul/QmDV6PZnd985jfznfnNLKH4QQJIAAkgASTQUQKEUrrxk45/SAAJIAEkgAQ6RQCkCD9IAAkgASSABDpIAKWog/CxaCSABJAAEgACKEXoB0gACSABJNBhAihFHW4ALB4JIAEkgARQ itAHkAASQAJIoMMEUIo63ABYPBJAAkgACaAUoQ8gASSABJBAhw mgFHW4AbB4JIAEkAASQClCH0ACSAAJIIEOE0Ap6nADYPFIAAkg ASTwhkiRrk4MFyrQXJXC8ISqd33D3S/ItsFdbyoaiASQABLoNIGtpEiViP0RxIQ8XzO3MvReViT9BU4by mMCOcEnbHXnXtJXcnEiqXCHKpF4bmXHe5n97 ZqfMbbaYGQ KQvjf 9Nhl3Kk2Etwdydwz 171dL0jENnhv9/3yc68/ uCyFhnRIqPae18/8SF sHpoZGXufxyDTWM2V4XMI9qh62vlOvdTl10aS5l4D3MfMVWohm WcqZempMRxzs NUqaPmdGTnLi3Za8Nyz5/OdVcUmhBFJjo3Weow6LVK PjJZ 3eHnCuDKrSuaEKC94ZRkLsmi1eF/GsowfQJjNidyqlx u3NYhYmpG8/8W rdW56GttD0hsFqBDLFhmDO2XZ6/nRQN3NR1Xa8t5fqjpH GUxvODkrLaYGk5lynr4A0bZnZd cevuxPivyiVbkKPr2DFPVly1BpvfJpggjp8h5M9GdFKfLzcL5t XB7Xfqc8BXd5pp 7pP3 9gvnp1dLs6A6H/zDTaHlr6qRT37QXlK6 fzWn6uRP munzl3dcf/enGAxNJLBqVm aMYaZoDHZCN37KpVZ vuPJYVBhUjAbVJhOkN9vp0Y6veS33Lol/qtmI3rdmq3r GJd4ptjcvktpQZAUg9KNQorEsg/5B4Z2XcsfJ0SMxwQiuVLUUCUiSLcM2jAKp0l0vGWoWEoLzfzN4 hkS xBky7yTiflHp9AqYxcU5Dx0B9rQWAPeUM e1D7P306KXO7m3AARsyw FkAMlkHnHakEzUjm11k2U6/M5zLX8up9bzZjVkv5a5nczZK3zqprpelsZrJYWvH80FzxZ9uPF ImxXpKcchW0khUFQdhJitxBBEq0ll m9q1SXqmVJrNFthprrkJdK81X9I2KMpnJ3qgYDVZ3JkWKVYtFr 66mzrJNq5UNm6R T6msG5X5XHZSgUTrOdNl3XpOAO83OenHH94ZWf78R7sKi3/VItOP7S bP1 8tPzx3AqnN88 v6a9880zO8O/apGR2mJ31n5B8joIxAmsFfwB27qiVeqULkic8mkTfUS2GDUUic QnQluf7VxXLp6xIJFoBgZvvdDvxlSqE3EiO OI/bjymCCM2aO8MkgSX2wZ0ti5/P3n0LX7uklBSt0hkXojEoXF0PsFb4yDgkB1uMHHKlsFL7lnXcO U3Xva/m3b750BzkN3oP0wGxPSpaZxqX2evyspYtx9UTgfANBSewGhz/TbHaOh5Y4S8bgkD6diJCovgsyYi3KUxFLDsnQsSo6yqEJdhaRT sjyYjJKEFXmDbD1xXzav4TmH9hnR9AVaPT02QI7lbS26lxWFdH pw11K0lBaIpAJ3cEFCBPFEKn HGgtSkG3RaF9SGpaSUWd BFJESF KVZ/032BWVHOJHjE5KMunAInKwk3qeULcyvYmk9ZzRBIdUj1lbqrcm/t18/G5Ue3k3/8bUIPvVg9dXdOePjo5 r0To3u1OK1Frq/rmwHZuzfJpw0Hb6avOOgdjvz4h86DN2SnErRsrz346lNJO4bv9 WtLlpojWup5r8PClLclOrRToW383c8TVgP2TkHpQ08v7fLgV2d GHmgCLKp2s9EQeHP7En3OQ7enrV2LCR Wtivb/7Ttcgb9tnsp2hocYLXU3iyedlxnVck4 /ZQQ1iYU3WI2OunuiIfSRXWKV2UnT0VUxkSUxDZ0wsnnIifO7Pz XHaXTQghTmmuOODMuYDjWJln3UqDhXoF8YgoHhEFIsqL1kQHXF D8yJqameUpeWKR6QozSWlQptNi5g48z5xL2UoMUpSyZkoQGGSr xtp8Rp6x1pbekOHCofViijgTpVvSa4UHW vWNSnG3drhUe3QJ99/ftcwOY0pf1k9PPeEUlgJnbv7yra3/vjCZS1y6d/nvnmsvXASu6YuQYaA97ZMh4MytivN1/9ruaNu3ynBZMoNKLWruNd4jrGUjgnx1GBS7EnkrOWa16 Dt4H5Dgvd042 vIYZ 73VL0WUajP9opiUTsdJVFL9ayLQ2tMtwUauYJiyu7NkLj3sS5/z KSomXajlBbcJV2gma/r e2QIurUwdMkZmvD1JYUZV7JHLcVyFoVDUyVvJC/tSo6m eSQEVSf4Ablfm8ZC1jPZdtkaLVfIqJhzjOKzaTogVYJrONKy3b K6RvO3YGkqRsoS1KeShXyQ/FyNGc5qyK B0mU6 o84oyJYnWvAZsc3TabVpur8jXqBDNU5T5TNJRHa6zcVXz6ruFr W908rOns1 tHB7TIldXl yTCBsXL1Uvfge1qn2z7EXtKOwSVZZWT17RIqPLFx/wRxq6EQHs0NhuE5Z5rsuxAmGMi/Znbxaz78POaFdJUeVaTDiWKc7n5beF5BdsG8vn55z/O/C43sG6ZxdJkV48I4pnc8rNbL8oygu8FoFoNe pODWC/xAdccSYTz/g69I4TLLFI6m8e5jC7zzb0V6Qtt96fH3P370UbR2gg9UAC4XdB uG0t5TsAF0mz0kRHCG5X5B/KxD AMlGpTCcgKRTBTb0w35g4qwsD9t/hfvWysOKv7f4a8M02EED3eADWpYUMcNOFPSVXBxCiDBn5EWlqe lBM9y9IliQgXpZATr3LitAJ00W9yNFVoBuPP9rlyKL 8unf7ymvfX1U/i2snZ4ZPnkTO3CTO3CZ8uR0doit2Bi2Rva18uRq2vdtA/f5D6U3svGSOhDjH80odQoT2Xk4Uz doEL1rWYGn4CbAs5MStrO82OKDj7apDhzQnQ3YZdCWvjxIuFWF QfZmN2bD IcqOS7SWJyQ44sjdQuvs9fufhpcgfDoU5vTsGBtSqHZ6/KykC1s5uUIAdlLLgUr90XnT3GCHy1jdh8YbtEDadMTdsvTC Tces0FndsJM2SuleawWjyrYGcEV5s6cWKeJycZe2FFEI2vanx LMMJitbAPUJ0VwatyaVPJ3gZhJt1g57mLIvaDcHnLQqkgdsgOV 7Ei6PWPlmp rmldfrk5v/qX5z9rhz9bdreelWfvYQmWuGrm dquss7/1c1eqFx 8oi8eX7iy8hfnjAN9sNq9xxZgkqVK0ajkmx2H0mD 0cQrkm0yt5zr8n4P 4p3abhmqsPLDxxbcGTJMY4fEJVtN3qdOw7uP4wD3iqTxw6d3Tt wAVtHW 6pGOr5aPR8Uzzv4Gze6cl8LSgcW3B343y01/NJdxrR sg2ef5OUtQwdXaY2z67sl5W7rhn0nijYJeI8BKyKBNBhp13U5t 415IikFZxvAyLF6OQYr7IzuZl7KRT1gkZyGa3VsMoTRdhqeT5M Tde8 U3X7tCAk9zDONFxdAWVY1fVVsBOmtV1DC1mZRg7zPxd4EUJdkx HmNeEvYYoFOHiDDMkDyciDvBk1 VFNH/PDo5Wj1Xfg7N9fLJ5avWAbknH1/hT3XT8pfVQ7M/U1qfva79Zlo3YIXUKP9tOXLtB1fGmhu8w98hUB51znqFaot/NGFFm8ZDRX67U fNtqi9e/qZUuNGyj5BR93D3LRyNUbsw9xc33SPFxvFzh3mtmrklyIYkawT Iuz4vn02nVJWTRZNcTl41WHh03TZXZS4WTp10eQ8W9CGOXrTq6 KeELTN87eTIvudpmhCuqFZwS84d2CdfGthB5SdFSv82NByx9gD epIDp0UyqEDienHAfl NOC s6cWzTpLzphg1VPkIIT0Ci9rloez9SxGL0dlLOk5UVnMJ4hx7d eoCxN1PNJGB10RaA3SyZa54diBp SJzSvutW7dpg1ZFtJpLWu/EHRtIifbq6tclRZQay2vvXWKvuI5oh3OPtE1Ka2tvNb3ZercWu bS6tElp/cnH1 3Mkcsrs vdenIBfMD38abPjncd1H/X5ewCwMmJEBuYLPsnWgdV/u6f670T2hN3OhdsnNidwn012Nc3DXXIHh cEWP3BbY3p1 KKNW sF/YJa7l1lZF0 tEXnVY0/Bu0smtLwan2XkCacPRx6atL08I2uf5W0lRe1rRNAyzZQrghum8 MtwwnZdETUM3uvPt gZUi7N0T5emsbHve/dUUDdnfmU e2683LWFL57r9RY32vXdmLGbCEC3bukAgYmc1XWje4eCX1537h Dtg5UizpvwEgkgASSABJBAMAGUomAumIoEkAASQAKhEUApCg01 FoQEkAASQALBBFCKgrlgKhJAAkgACYRGAKUoNNRYEBJAAkgACQ QTQCkK5oKpSAAJIAEkEBoBlKLQUGNBSAAJIAEkEEwApSiYC6Yi ASSABJBAaARQikJDjQUhASSABJBAMAGUomAumIoEkAASQAKhEU ApCg01FoQEkAASQALBBFCKgrlgKhJAAkgACYRGAKRo4ycd/5AAEkACSAAJdIoAropCU30sCAkgASSABIIJoBQFc8FUJIAEkAA SCI3A/wH6t6z0la2POAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

[MannyIsGod]

Posted in another thread, but thought I'd put here as well. Here are all the two-man combinations involving Wemby. Everyone was excited about the Wemby-Devin combo based on what we saw at the end of last year... but turns out so far this year Devin is actually by far the worst partner for Wemby, rivaled only by Branhim, who is probably the worst player in the entire league.

https://i.ibb.co/M6hZxvS/twoman.png

Problematic when your highest paid player is the worst pairing with your franchise player.

Sample size + 2 man lineups lack context since Devin isn't playing with the starting 5.

[scott]

Holy shit Spurminator, nice find. I didn't even know a negative 100 NetRtg was possible :lol

But this does raise the matter of Devin's defense. It's just taken for granted on this website that Devin is a good defender, because that's what he was touted as when drafted... but in reality he's 13th Percentile in CraftedDPM over the last two seasons and is even worse to start this year, 7th Percentile in CraftedDPM. His CraftedDPM, DDarko, and DBPM have all gotten worse every single season of his career. He's even earned the dreaded "Sieve" badge on his CraftedNBA profile https://craftednba.com/players/devin-vassell

He needs, and deserves, more time this season... but there are a lot of things to be concerned about. Will post this in the Devin thread so it doesn't get lost in the shuffle.

[scott]

Sample size + 2 man lineups lack context since Devin isn't playing with the starting 5.

Almost exactly half of Wemby-Vassell minutes (125) also involve Keldon (63), during which they combine for a -36.9 NetRtg.

The most frequent 3rd partner with Wemby and Devin though is Castle (64), and posts a -28.5. Wemby-Devin-CP3 (57 minutes) is a lot better, with a -3.9. Devin and Wemby have a Negative NetRtg in all but one 3-man combination, Wemby-Devin-Sochan (4 games, 36 minutes) with a +12.3.

If we look at 4-man lineups, the lineups with Wemby+Devin+2 other starters aren't that great so far either. Dev-Wem-CP3-Steph (35 min) is a -16.7. Barnes-Dev-Wemby-Steph (26 min) is -30.6. Dev-Wemby-CP3-Barnes (18 min) is good, at +23.4. Dev-Wemby-Champ-Castle (18 min) is -47.0.

Like I said elsewhere... Devin needs and deserves more time... but if folks are being honest with themselves, Devin has had a rough start to the season (injuries aside). His shot has looked great at times, but he's just not really fitting with the team a lot of times. I'm willing to just chalk that up to rust at this point and see how it plays out... but I'm only willing to let it play out this season. Like LeBowen, I think this is the critical year for Devin. Injury and inconsistency are kind of rough.

[scott]

Waited until 27 games, which is roughly the 1/3 mark of the season, for this update. Cutoff set at 20 minutes, which is just enough to sneak in yesterday's starting lineup.




Lineup
GP
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
TS%
Pace
PIE


1
Paul-Mamu-Champ-Wesley-Wemby
5
32
118.5
81.8
36.6
2.44
56.3
60.7
99.02
68.5


2
Paul-Barnes-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby **NEW SL**
3
20
122.4
87.5
34.9
2.57
55.0
70.0
113.75
72.9


3
Paul-Barnes-Keldon-Sochan-Wemby
6
26
113.2
81.8
31.4
1.80
63.1
55.6
100.99
70.9


4
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Castle-Wemby **OLD SL**
14
151
125.5
107.1
18.4
2.65
51.0
63.7
98.33
57.9


5
Barnes-Collins-Keldon-Vassell-Castle
7
24
125.5
107.5
17.9
3.25
45.7
64.1
103.71
53.3


6
Paul-Barnes-Collins-Champ-Castle
8
42
106.7
105.5
1.2
2.00
54.3
54.1
103.18
51.2


7
Paul-Barnes-Keldon-Champ-Wemby
7
22
108.7
113.3
-4.6
3.00
51.1
52.7
99.70
53.0


8
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **ORIGINAL SL**
11
97
102.9
110.0
-7.1
1.70
51.4
54.8
100.13
50.2




Some observations:

the new SL, which debuted last night, is promising for one big thing that stands out to me: PACE! By far the fastest pace of any lineup we trot out. While the sample size is still too small to read too much into it, hopefully this sets a trend.
The new SL also has something in common with Lineups 1-3: all feature an AST% of > 75% (87.5% for the new SL. Lineup 6 is the only other with an AST% over 75% at 90.9).
Our top 3 lineups also have something else in common: DEFENSE and REBOUNDING. We know that defense is a deliberate point of emphasis for our team identity and this shows that the concept is successful (our best defensive lineups being our most successful lineups overall). They're also really good at rebounding (which is typically positively correlated with DRTG). All good signs.
That original SL is our worst qualifying lineup. Hopefully we aren't forced to go back to that.

[MannyIsGod]

One game took Devin/Wemby from -20 net rating to -12. Pretty huge swing.

I really hope Castle reverts back to what we were seeing earlier in the year but I'm glad we made this switch. I don't mind our drafting strategy to date, but we drastically need to pivot to get some playmakers and shooters.

[lefty20]

Didn't know where else to post this.

1870792630071665073


Super duper small sample size, so definitely take this stat with a ship load of salt.

[scott]

Didn't know where else to post this.

1870792630071665073


Super duper small sample size, so definitely take this stat with a ship load of salt.

That does mean they were slightly worse against PDX than in the proceeding 20 minutes together :lol

Yeah, not too much to read into this yet... but it looks good so far!

[scott]

32 games in, roughly 40% of the season. Here's an update, min 30 minutes played




Lineup
GP
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
TS%
Pace
PIE


1
Paul-Mamu-Champ-Wesley-Wemby
5
32
118.5
81.8
36.6
2.44
56.3
60.7
99.02
68.5


2
Paul-Johnson-Jones-Champ-Wemby
7
33
136.8
104.5
32.2
3.86
52.8
73.8
98.58
65.5


3
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Castle-Wemby **OLD SL**
14
151
125.5
107.1
18.4
2.65
51.0
63.7
98.33
57.9


4
Paul-Barnes-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby **NEW SL**
8
96
115.9
104.0
11.9
3.14
45.8
60.9
99.90
58.7


6
Paul-Barnes-Collins-Champ-Castle
8
42
106.7
105.5
1.2
2.00
54.3
54.1
103.18
51.2


8
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **ORIGINAL SL**
13
100
102.9
108.3
-5.4
1.65
52.3
54.7
99.83
51.0



Observations:

New SL has rapidly dipped below the Old SL in Net Rating, which shouldn't surprise us if you've watched our first quarters with this group. Positives of this group: good defense, low TOs. Major red flag: this lineup gets dominated on the boards for whatever reason. This may simply be due to Wemby's recent rebounding malaise.
Everyone seems to hate the CP3-Tre Jones lineups, but at least this one (#2) seems to work really well. What stands out is that it's strong defensively despite featuring Keldon Johnson and an undersized backcourt. Go figure. Takes good care of the ball, decent rebounding, but probably inflated by some hot shooting moments.
We're just a team without pace, in general. Last season, our best lineups had high pace numbers, we are just a slower paced team - largely because of CP3. This is clearly by design, but I don't particularly love it.
Personally, I wanted to stick with the old SL, and I'd still go back to it now. All of the rotations just flow better that way. I think Sochan's long term best role is as a bench guy anyway, and I'm 80% sure I want Vassell's future role to be on another team - so let's get Castle and Champ back in there.

[mystargtr34]

The best balance is the following.

SL: Paul-Castle-Champ-Barnes-Wemby

Bench: Tre-Vassell-Keldon-Sochan-Collins/Bassey

As we know the big issue is benching Vassell and even Sochan won’t happen because of contracts etc.

[scott]

Don't know the best place to put this and didn't want to start a new thread... but this is a real sight for sore eyes.

https://i.redd.it/zdzujgkbgtae1.jpeg

[exstatic]

Don't know the best place to put this and didn't want to start a new thread... but this is a real sight for sore eyes.

https://i.redd.it/zdzujgkbgtae1.jpeg

lol, Wolves and Warriors are ‘Flagg Curious’.

[Seventyniner]

lol, Wolves and Warriors are ‘Flagg Curious’.

It's way too late for middling teams to start tanking now. It would be fun to see them try, though.

[LeBowen]

lol, Wolves and Warriors are ‘Flagg Curious’.

Warriors were on a 4-13 slide before last night's win. Played at home in 11 out of those 18 games.
We just need to be ahead of 2 out of 3 between Suns, Warriors and Kings to make the play-in.

[scott]

Tre Jones has been taking a lot of shit... but he's actually be quite effective this year

1875474819065770026

The Spurs have a +9.42 NETRTG with Tre on the court this year, a -1.92 with him off the court.

Little man deserves some credit.

[scott]

Some other fun metrics... I was looking at our team's shooting in High and Very High Leverage scenarios (similar, but not the same as "clutch time" - if you aren't familiar with leverage stats, here is an explainer: https://darrylblackport.com/posts/2020-12-22-pbpstats-leverage/), and some of the data may surprise a few folks.



Not surprisingly, Wemby leads the team in minutes, points, USG and FGA in High and Very High leverage scenarios. He's 9/16 on 2PA and 6/17 on 3PA and has contributed 16 FT pts.
CP3 is second on the team in these scenarios in minutes and pts, but the most efficient with a 81.25% TS%. The dude delivers when it matters.
Devin is third in minutes and pts, second in FGA. He's also been very efficient with a 70.59% TS%, making 5/7 2PA and 4/9 3PA.
Castle is actually second in the team in USG despite being tied for 6th in minutes and being 6th in points. He has NOT been as efficient though, only 52.94% TS% (5/10 2PA, 1/4 3PA)
Our top 3 guys in High and Very High Leverage scenarios (Wemby, CP3, Devin) all have a 3PAr > 50%, which I found interesting as well (though maybe not surprising since 3PA are inherently higher leverage shots)

[ambchang]

Tre Jones has been taking a lot of shit... but he's actually be quite effective this year

1875474819065770026

The Spurs have a +9.42 NETRTG with Tre on the court this year, a -1.92 with him off the court.

Little man deserves some credit.

While I’m not surprised Tre has been effective and a net positive, I’m surprised he was this positive. He always plays within his limits and run smart sets. He is severely limited though due to his shooting and size, but he knows how to pick his spots and his ineffectiveness due to his small stature is largely exaggerated. I don’t see him as a long term answer to a starting PG but he is a high end backup point who can start some games in a pinch.

I also like blake Wesley and was glad to see him do well with wemby. But he’s very much like a smaller castle in terms of role. Blake is faster but much smaller, less strong and can’t finish close to the level of castle, but they are both seen as point of attack defenders who can drive to the basket. I think Blake has to work on his outside shooting (who on the spurs don’t?), manage his change of speed better and continue to work on his finishing. Blake is an nba player but would likely find more room to for elsewhere. Or the spurs can trade Tre and Blake can grow into that backup PG role.

Sochan has been excellent on defence and is a much better cutter and finisher on offence. But his offensive creation and outside shooting is getting to be huge concerns. The spurs are playing 4 on 5 on offence with him on the floor and while his defense and offensive rebounding is great he has to clean up his offence quick.

I’m also surprised castles defence isn’t as good as the eye test suggests. But then it’s only a few months. He has a long way to go before he can be considered a good defender, let alone an elite one.

[rascal]

32 games in, roughly 40% of the season. Here's an update, min 30 minutes played




Lineup
GP
Min
Off Rtg
Def Rtg
Net Rtg
Ast/TO
Reb %
TS%
Pace
PIE


1
Paul-Mamu-Champ-Wesley-Wemby
5
32
118.5
81.8
36.6
2.44
56.3
60.7
99.02
68.5


2
Paul-Johnson-Jones-Champ-Wemby
7
33
136.8
104.5
32.2
3.86
52.8
73.8
98.58
65.5


3
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Castle-Wemby **OLD SL**
14
151
125.5
107.1
18.4
2.65
51.0
63.7
98.33
57.9


4
Paul-Barnes-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby **NEW SL**
8
96
115.9
104.0
11.9
3.14
45.8
60.9
99.90
58.7


6
Paul-Barnes-Collins-Champ-Castle
8
42
106.7
105.5
1.2
2.00
54.3
54.1
103.18
51.2


8
Paul-Barnes-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **ORIGINAL SL**
13
100
102.9
108.3
-5.4
1.65
52.3
54.7
99.83
51.0



Observations:

New SL has rapidly dipped below the Old SL in Net Rating, which shouldn't surprise us if you've watched our first quarters with this group. Positives of this group: good defense, low TOs. Major red flag: this lineup gets dominated on the boards for whatever reason. This may simply be due to Wemby's recent rebounding malaise.
Everyone seems to hate the CP3-Tre Jones lineups, but at least this one (#2) seems to work really well. What stands out is that it's strong defensively despite featuring Keldon Johnson and an undersized backcourt. Go figure. Takes good care of the ball, decent rebounding, but probably inflated by some hot shooting moments.
We're just a team without pace, in general. Last season, our best lineups had high pace numbers, we are just a slower paced team - largely because of CP3. This is clearly by design, but I don't particularly love it.
Personally, I wanted to stick with the old SL, and I'd still go back to it now. All of the rotations just flow better that way. I think Sochan's long term best role is as a bench guy anyway, and I'm 80% sure I want Vassell's future role to be on another team - so let's get Castle and Champ back in there.


Small sample sizes. Strength of schedule has to also be factored in.

[itzsoweezee]

Champ needs more minutes. I would think this glaringly obvious, but it seems the trend is in the opposite direction.

[scott]

Here is where things stand at the 41 game mark. Filtered for lineups with 36 min or more. These are the only ones that qualify.

https://i.postimg.cc/T1BvDHxW/41-games.png

I posted a lot deeper dive here: https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=304621&p=11182570&viewfull=1#post11182570, but at this stage it is clear that there are certain players who are flat out not compatible. Amongst them:

Keldon + Vassell have a -22.2 NETRTG across 346 minutes. I go deeper into that in the link above.
Vassell + Champ have a -16.2 across 255 minutes.
Sochan + Castle have a -14.6 across 169 minutes.
Vassell + Castle have a -11.4 across 347 minutes.
Keldon + Sochan have a -10.1 across 215 minutes.
Keldon + Castle have a -9.3 across 492 minutes.

What concerns is is that Vassell and Keldon have negative combinations with so many players but when you dig into it, it's really the Vassell + Keldon combination that kills his combos with everyone else.

[RC_Drunkford]

well it looks like our coach is playing the wrong line ups. If you start with CP3/Vassell/Barnes/Sochan/Wemby the first players off the bench should be Castle and Champagnie for Vassell and Sochan, so you play our 2nd strongest line up right after. Then you gotta sub in Keldon/Tre Jones/Bassey. Then sub Wemby back in for Bassey and Vassell for Keldon. Something like that seems to make way more sense than to have Devin out there with the bench for the whole quarter.

[Pauleta14]

4 of the 5 best lineups are without Sochan...

[scott]

4 of the 5 best lineups are without Sochan...

This isn't a list of "best lineups", it's a comprehensive list of ALL the lineups that have played over 36 minutes. You'll also note that the best one has Sochan in it. There is plenty to criticize Sochan for without having to consistently show your ass as someone who doesn't understand statistics.

[Pauleta14]

This isn't a list of "best lineups", it's a comprehensive list of ALL the lineups that have played over 36 minutes. You'll also note that the best one has Sochan in it. There is plenty to criticize Sochan for without having to consistently show your ass as someone who doesn't understand statistics.

Bro can we still have some banter once in a while?

Especially with so many days without a game?

Yes, we need Sochan's bacl asap defensively and no he shouldn't be on the floor when it matters. Good? :lol

[scott]

Yes, we need Sochan's bacl asap defensively and no he shouldn't be on the floor when it matters. Good? :lol

I agree with this. Sochan makes sense in lineups where he's the only non-shooter in the lineup. He and Castle should never share the court together. There are plenty of "when it matters" scenarios where it might also make sense for him to be on the floor, just not ones that involve needing a 3, that's for damn sure. Sochan has a lot to improve, but he's still the 3rd most promising player on our team, tbh (behind Wemby and Castle). That's saying something about Sochan, but also about the state of our roster.

[Pauleta14]

I agree with this. Sochan makes sense in lineups where he's the only non-shooter in the lineup. He and Castle should never share the court together. There are plenty of "when it matters" scenarios where it might also make sense for him to be on the floor, just not ones that involve needing a 3, that's for damn sure. Sochan has a lot to improve, but he's still the 3rd most promising player on our team, tbh (behind Wemby and Castle). That's saying something about Sochan, but also about the state of our roster.

Yep.

As for Sochan all I'm asking is him to prove me wrong. We'll see

[scott]

Yep.

As for Sochan all I'm asking is him to prove me wrong. We'll see

I think expectations should be adjusted, and that isn't directed towards you. He's not going to be the next two-way star (I laughed even typing that), and his offensive role most likely is and needs to be 5th option, garbage man cutter/slasher. But that's okay, teams need that too. He's a lot different than Draymond, but if he can deliver the kind of impact Draymond does, that would be quite a valuable player. I hope you're also wrong (which would mean I'm also wrong... I'm not actually counting on this happening)

Of course, he'll be open to a LOT more criticism when the Spurs give him some stupid extension, as they are likely to do, this offseason. I've got a got more patience for Sochan if he's on a 4/54 (Austin Reeves contract) than if he's on a 5/140 (my avatar will be changing at that point)

[Pauleta14]

I think expectations should be adjusted, and that isn't directed towards you. He's not going to be the next two-way star (I laughed even typing that), and his offensive role most likely is and needs to be 5th option, garbage man cutter/slasher. But that's okay, teams need that too. He's a lot different than Draymond, but if he can deliver the kind of impact Draymond does, that would be quite a valuable player. I hope you're also wrong (which would mean I'm also wrong... I'm not actually counting on this happening)

Of course, he'll be open to a LOT more criticism when the Spurs give him some stupid extension, as they are likely to do, this offseason. I've got a got more patience for Sochan if he's on a 4/54 (Austin Reeves contract) than if he's on a 5/140 (my avatar will be changing at that point)

Again, I hope I'm wrong.

However...

I don't think people can change, there are exceptions to every rule, let's hope Sochan is one of them, but I doubt it.

Sochan struck me from the get-go as the anti-Spurs player, as much by his "lackadaisical" attitude, willingness to draw attention to him, than his poor fundamentals or BBIQ and I was surprised to see how much a fan favorite he was after his rookie season (I re-started watching NBA only last season with Wemby's arrival and missed the previous), so I decided to wait and see again after a longer period, but time only confirmed my initial impressions. And still does.

His shooting isn't what worries me like it does for 99% of ST actually, it's the easiest part to fix long term. Even if he doesn't get that much better, he'd still be valuable as a plug-in role player. Not a starter and even less a closer obviously tho...

What worries me is the gap between where he is fundamentally wise and where he should (in a normal world) be as an NBA player, it's his body language, it's his lack of progress in court awareness, it's his clumsiness with the ball or lack of touch/feel for the game, especially when the team is centered around a very particular player that requires higher IQ than average to play the (singular) way he ambitions to.

All those are so much more difficult to teach at his age, those are learned are a much younger age and usually part of the selections. He went thought those thx to his physique and the potential it represents as much as his grit/fighting spirit that are as admirable as they are insufficient to become as elite bb player.

Had we drafted a more traditional big, Sochan's limitations would be less of an issue, but Wemby shines with high passing abilities and IQ/feel for the game around him. Sochan is (a lot) more benefiting from Wemby by being spoon fed thanks to the attention he draws than he brings to Wemby.

Tbf it's also a matter of taste of vision of basketball and team sports, I like players that use their brains, I'd rather have players that are average in every domain than great in a couple and awful in others. It's just me. and one of the many reasons I became as Spurs fan decades ago. (hence my surprise to see Sochan being a fan favorite)

Spurs can find so much better even if we lose a bit of defensive grit. As of now he's not worth a new 5 years investment with the places being counted.

[scott]

Sochan struck me from the get-go as the anti-Spurs player, as much by his "lackadaisical" attitude, willingness to draw attention to him,



it's his body language,



Tbf it's also a matter of taste of vision of basketball and team sports, I like players that use their brains,

Sounds like you have "old man yells at cloud" problems with Sochan that cloud your judgement. Hilarious that you go around calling other people Karen (which you clearly don't know the meaning of :lol)

[Pauleta14]

Sounds like you have "old man yells at cloud" problems with Sochan that cloud your judgement. Hilarious that you go around calling other people Karen (which you clearly don't know the meaning of :lol)

Wow, what a fool was I thinking we could have a civilized exchanged... :lol Forgot I was on ST.

So 1st what you call "old man yells at cloud" is called experienced. You're obviously free to dismiss it, maybe you're one of those who doesn't learn from his mistakes with age.

2nd, no idea how your reference of "Karen" (that I only call ONE poster that way bc she acted in a way that deserves it, no need to panic with a bs narrative mate) is relevant to the topic.

Lastly I've repeatedly said that I'd love to be wrong, which implies that I'm not stuck with the opinion I have today, just that the probabilities are low.

Go drink a large glass of milk and go to bed scotty.

[SpursBills]

I think expectations should be adjusted, and that isn't directed towards you. He's not going to be the next two-way star (I laughed even typing that), and his offensive role most likely is and needs to be 5th option, garbage man cutter/slasher. But that's okay, teams need that too. He's a lot different than Draymond, but if he can deliver the kind of impact Draymond does, that would be quite a valuable player. I hope you're also wrong (which would mean I'm also wrong... I'm not actually counting on this happening)

Of course, he'll be open to a LOT more criticism when the Spurs give him some stupid extension, as they are likely to do, this offseason. I've got a got more patience for Sochan if he's on a 4/54 (Austin Reeves contract) than if he's on a 5/140 (my avatar will be changing at that point)

I don't think at this point there is any way the front office gives him a 5/140 or anything close at this point. We've had a good half season to see what Sochan is and isn't - versatile defender but can't change a defense on his own, interior toughness, can't shoot. The hopes that he could secondary playmake are basically dead at this point, and his ceiling is quite a bit more limited albeit still very valuable on a contending team. Dort is on a 5/80, Caruso is on a 4/80 and I think both are ok-ish comps for the type of impact (scaled for age and potential) that Sochan could be in his second contract.

The best comp that I can see for him at this stage of his career though, is probably Okongwu, who got 4/62. Mid-lottery pick, lower counting stats but better impact metrics, couldn't really shoot, good defender, undersized for his position. I'd scale that contract to the current cap and see if you can lock Sochan down with that number, which would be very palatable for what he brings. That way he's got 4-5 years to build a decent outside shot and prove that he deserves a bigger contract.

[scott]

I don't think at this point there is any way the front office gives him a 5/140 or anything close at this point. We've had a good half season to see what Sochan is and isn't - versatile defender but can't change a defense on his own, interior toughness, can't shoot. The hopes that he could secondary playmake are basically dead at this point, and his ceiling is quite a bit more limited albeit still very valuable on a contending team. Dort is on a 5/80, Caruso is on a 4/80 and I think both are ok-ish comps for the type of impact (scaled for age and potential) that Sochan could be in his second contract.

The best comp that I can see for him at this stage of his career though, is probably Okongwu, who got 4/62. Mid-lottery pick, lower counting stats but better impact metrics, couldn't really shoot, good defender, undersized for his position. I'd scale that contract to the current cap and see if you can lock Sochan down with that number, which would be very palatable for what he brings. That way he's got 4-5 years to build a decent outside shot and prove that he deserves a bigger contract.

I agree with the Reaves-Okongwu range for Jeremy. I was exaggerating with the 5/140... but not by that much. My faith in this FO is that low right now.

I'm expecting something more along the lines of 5/100, which would still be an overpay... but not overly egregious. Important to keep in mind that ULTBE bonuses count against the Apron, so I'll have my eye on how much the Spurs start adding these on to deals going forward. Devin has about $2.2MM/yr of ULTBE bonuses on his deal that was signed before the CBA and the apron was known. Curious if the Spurs get more conservative with those.

[baseline bum]

I think expectations should be adjusted, and that isn't directed towards you. He's not going to be the next two-way star (I laughed even typing that), and his offensive role most likely is and needs to be 5th option, garbage man cutter/slasher. But that's okay, teams need that too. He's a lot different than Draymond, but if he can deliver the kind of impact Draymond does, that would be quite a valuable player. I hope you're also wrong (which would mean I'm also wrong... I'm not actually counting on this happening)

Of course, he'll be open to a LOT more criticism when the Spurs give him some stupid extension, as they are likely to do, this offseason. I've got a got more patience for Sochan if he's on a 4/54 (Austin Reeves contract) than if he's on a 5/140 (my avatar will be changing at that point)

Kind of an unrealistic expectation that Jeremy could have a similar impact to one of the all-time great defenders in league history in Draymond. If he could have that kind of positive impact to the team I'd be thrilled to have him on a 5/140 deal.

[scott]

Wow, what a fool was I thinking we could have a civilized exchanged... :lol Forgot I was on ST.

So 1st what you call "old man yells at cloud" is called experienced. You're obviously free to dismiss it, maybe you're one of those who doesn't learn from his mistakes with age.

2nd, no idea how your reference of "Karen" (that I only call ONE poster that way bc she acted in a way that deserves it, no need to panic with a bs narrative mate) is relevant to the topic.

Lastly I've repeatedly said that I'd love to be wrong, which implies that I'm not stuck with the opinion I have today, just that the probabilities are low.

Go drink a large glass of milk and go to bed scotty.

You went on a rampage of childish behavior for a solid month or so before I put you on ignore (where you still are, other than me checking why you are quoting me). We can't have a civilized exchange, because you haven't proven to be a civilized member of this website. Au revoir, le con

[scott]

Kind of an unrealistic expectation that Jeremy could have a similar impact to one of the all-time great defenders in league history in Draymond. If he could have that kind of positive impact to the team I'd be thrilled to have him on a 5/140 deal.

Should have clarified, I only meant similar impact from the perspective of being an impact defender while not being a significant offensive threat. Not necessarily to Draymond's level. My apologies for not being clear there.

[Pauleta14]

You went on a rampage of childish behavior for a solid month or so before I put you on ignore (where you still are, other than me checking why you are quoting me). We can't have a civilized exchange, because you haven't proven to be a civilized member of this website. Au revoir, le con

The fact that you miss the irony of your post(s) says a lot... :lol

[itzsoweezee]

Kind of an unrealistic expectation that Jeremy could have a similar impact to one of the all-time great defenders in league history in Draymond. If he could have that kind of positive impact to the team I'd be thrilled to have him on a 5/140 deal.

Yeah, sochan’s best outcome seems more like Aaron Gordon than Draymond. Draymond is on such a higher level than Sochan, and he was like that early on in his career.

[Dejounte]

You went on a rampage of childish behavior for a solid month or so before I put you on ignore (where you still are, other than me checking why you are quoting me). We can't have a civilized exchange, because you haven't proven to be a civilized member of this website. Au revoir, le con

Soon the only person who will hear her (Pauleta) cries about Sochan, Champagnie (or whatever bad take she has next because she has poor basketball knowledge) will be herself. She has such an abrasive personality that no interaction with her is any fun, combined with an insufferable narcissistic attitude. Enjoy talking to yourself, loser.

[ambchang]

What happened to sochan, imho, is that his rookie season showed promise and that the expectations were reset by the fans. People are talking about him being an all star type player if he learned to shoot (including me) but that wasn’t realistic. He is a good defensive role player, he has little self creation ability and he can’t finish anything outside of 15 feet. The finishing I hope he can eventually fix but I’m not sure if he will ever have that self creation in him.

My expectations have since adjusted, and that is of a 9th pick in his class. I also hope the coaching staff can create a system that can use the strengths of the players instead of forcing them into a predetermined system that highlights their weaknesses.

[The Truth #6]

I love that Sochan is not soft and is competitive. He's versatile. And though his attire demands attention, on offense he is not someone demanding the ball and stalling the offense.

He does whatever is asked. I still can't believe they played him as a point guard last year; that has to be unprecedented in the NBA to force a power forward who can't shoot into a starting point guard role with zero experience in that position. And yet, he didn't completely fall apart like some other draft picks and instead is I would say thriving in a more limited role this year. The only issue is shooting imo. That's it.

I don't understand at all the arguments that he has really poor fundamentals or basketball IQ. If anything, this season he feels like a much more athletic Oberto out there.

[Pauleta14]

Soon the only person who will hear her (Pauleta) cries about Sochan, Champagnie (or whatever bad take she has next because she has poor basketball knowledge) will be herself. She has such an abrasive personality that no interaction with her is any fun, combined with an insufferable narcissistic attitude. Enjoy talking to yourself, loser.

Look at u too cuties sucking each other's dick :lol

14k post and counting

[Brazil]

You went on a rampage of childish behavior for a solid month or so before I put you on ignore (where you still are, other than me checking why you are quoting me). We can't have a civilized exchange, because you haven't proven to be a civilized member of this website. Au revoir, le con

:lol what a weird feud tbh

[Knoxxx]

5/140 may not be terrible on a declining $ deal. I had him about 4/$80 myself, but if he played hardball I could see that going up.

[scott]

So here are at the ASB, here is an update:

https://i.imgur.com/2xU1qT8.png



That top lineup gives a little bit of an indication of how my preferred bench unit would work, since it has 3 of the 5 guys I'd have on the 2nd unit: CP3, Vassell, Sochan.
Personally I'd start Fox/Castle/Champ/Barnes/Wemby, which is effectively the third lineup listed here but with Fox in for CP3. I'd expect Pace to increase dramatically with that lineup.
We see the starting 5 with Fox added in this list now. It's a negative net rating, but the offense is still pretty good. It's the defense, which is predictable since CP3 and Fox together is a midget backcourt, and neither Devin or Barnes are even average defenders. This is just a lineup that is doomed to fail defensively

[Spursfanfromafar]

Personally I'd start Fox/Castle/Champ/Barnes/Wemby, which is effectively the third lineup listed here but with Fox in for CP3. I'd expect Pace to increase dramatically with that lineup.
We see the starting 5 with Fox added in this list now. It's a negative net rating, but the offense is still pretty good. It's the defense, which is predictable since CP3 and Fox together is a midget backcourt, and neither Devin or Barnes are even average defenders. This is just a lineup that is doomed to fail defensively



My preferred starting lineup would be - Fox, Vassell, Castle, Sochan and Wemby. Yeah, there are three sub-par three point shooters and spacing will be a problem. But I want these guys to figure out the rest of the season. This offers the best lineup for future development and will also be the best defensive lineup with three plus defenders and one (Fox) treading water on defense.

The Spurs are now 3.5 games behind the Warriors for the 10th spot. It doesn't matter. Try hard to develop defensive chemistry with the core and also some shooting consistency for Castle and Sochan. This lineup will also contend better unlike the CP3, Fox, Barnes lineups which will score well but will always be outscored and will put too much pressure on Wemby to provide the defense. With my lineup, there is less chance of Wemby being gassed out because of Castle and Sochan applying perimeter pressure and Vassell (theoretically) providing help defense while Fox has active hands.

The bench with CP3, Johnson, Champagnie, Barnes and Biyombo can be a veteran second unit.

If the Spurs fail to win and are limited to the 11th or the 12th spot that is a better outcome than getting to the 10th spot, winning possibly one game in the play-in and losing some percentage points on the higher lottery pick possibility. Playing Castle and Sochan will also help the Spurs build and solidify strong defensive habits around Wemby.

[scott]

My preferred starting lineup would be - Fox, Vassell, Castle, Sochan and Wemby. Yeah, there are three sub-par three point shooters and spacing will be a problem. But I want these guys to figure out the rest of the season. This offers the best lineup for future development and will also be the best defensive lineup with three plus defenders and one (Fox) treading water on defense.



I think your lineup would be the best developmental lineup, even though it might not be the best lineup we can put out there. I'd be fine with it, understanding that it won't look pretty at times. At least it would make it crystal clear on if Devin can stay and how much we should put into Sochan's extension.

[Spursfanfromafar]

I think your lineup would be the best developmental lineup, even though it might not be the best lineup we can put out there. I'd be fine with it, understanding that it won't look pretty at times. At least it would make it crystal clear on if Devin can stay and how much we should put into Sochan's extension.

Indeed. It will be the best developmental lineup. And it will also help figure out what exactly we need around Wemby. I think CP3 and Barnes have been great additions who have brought some clarity on how to play around Wemby but now that we have Fox and because Barnes is so terrible defensively...it's time to move on from the veterans. Let this lineup figure out their strengths and weaknesses. If it works and it helps the Spurs reach the play-in it's great news for the cast and if it doesn't, it is still good for our lottery odds. The Spurs lose nothing by relegating CP3 and Barnes.

[scott]

Some notes from NBA.com's latest power rankings that came out today:


Three numbers to know

The Spurs ranked 14th (https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?DateTo=01/03/2025&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING) defensively (111.9 points allowed per 100 possessions) when they were 18-16 and in eighth place (https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/traditional?Conference=West&DateTo=01%2F03%2F2025) in the West. Over their 18 games since they rank 28th (https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?DateFrom=01/04/2025&DateTo=02/13/2025&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING) on that end of the floor (118.3 allowed per 100).



The Spurs lead the league (https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/four-factors?dir=A&sort=OPP_FTA_RATE) in opponent free throw rate (19.3 attempts per 100 shots from the field). Victor Wembanyama has averaged 1.68 blocks per personal foul, the highest rate for any player with at least 100 total blocks in the 52 seasons that blocks have been counted.



Over their five games with De’Aaron Fox, the Spurs have been better in their 110 minutes with both Fox and Chris Paul on the floor (plus-5.5 points per 100 possessions (https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612759/lineups-advanced?CF=GROUP_NAME*E*Paul:GROUP_NAME*E*Fox&GroupQuantity=2)) than they’ve been in 104 total minutes with one on the floor without the other (minus-2.7 per 100).

I wanted to focus on the last bullet point. The article points out that the Spurs are better with CP3/Fox on the court than with having just one of them on the court... however, this is a little misleading. The Spurs are +2.46 per 100 possessions with Fox on the floor without Paul, which means they are significantly negative with CP3 on the floor without Paul. Unfortunately I don't have a way to isolate CP3's minutes in just the last 5 games the way I can do De'Aaron's with the tools available, but just using the data that's available to me, the Spurs have played 240 minutes since the Fox trade... CP3 and DeAaron have played 110 together, Fox has played 69 without CP3, which leaves 61 minutes. Paul has played 145 minutes in the last 5 games, which mean's he has played 35 minutes without Fox.

So that means in CP3's 35 minutes without Fox, the unit is posting around a -13 NETRTG. WOOF.

(Note: pbpstats also show that CP3+Fox is posting a +4.74, not a +5.5 like the article suggests... I'm curious why the data would be different).