Draft Pick Watch

[Mr. Body]

The time is coming when the Spurs will no longer be in the lottery. Fortunately we have some extra draft capital, but it is not finite. We're seeing how teams consider future picks owed and protections in determining their windows of opportunities and trades. Will we get these picks? Will these franchises make moves to jeopardize them?


Charlotte 2024, protected 1-14 for 2024, 2025, converts to SRPs in both 2026 and 2027 if it does not convey.

Toronto 2024, protected 1-6, 1-6, 1-6 in 2024, 2025, 2026, converts to SRPs in both 2026 and 2027 if it does not convey.

Atlanta 2025, no protections.

Chicago 2025, protected 1-10 in 2025, 1-8 in 2026, 1-8 in 2027, converts to SRP in 2028 if it does not convey.

Atlanta 2026, first round pick swap, no protections.

Atlanta 2027, no protections.

Boston 2028, first round pick swap protected if it's 1st pick.

Dallas 2030, first round pick swap, no protections.


The variables in whether these might convey include:

Strength of conference, changing conference landscapes, likelihood of blowing it up, costs of roster.

Early in the 2023-24 season, it's hard to tell what will happen, but some initial glimpses:

Dallas and Boston are playing very well, with Boston a heavy favorite to contend from the east. However, Boston's absurd payroll and Doncic's need to contend long-term may cause issues by the time our swap opportunities arise.

Charlotte is a disorganized team lead by an undisciplined LaMello Ball. They do not look very good, although they have some good pieces such as Washington, Mark Williams, Brandon Miller. Almost hope they just suck this year for another high draft pick and cross fingers for a playoff berth next year.

Toronto, a team at a crossroads, may blow it up or at least sell off certain parts. They were 41-41 last year and the addition of Gradey Dick (and loss of FVV) likely doesn't improve that mark. Will they be bad enough to convey a juicy pick, or will blowing it up protect them for three years in a row?

Chicago may be in even worse shape. DeRozan's contract is up this year and it's hard to imagine he'd stay. May just take the hint and sell everything. I can imagine an Alex Caruso will generate interest, or an expensive Zach Lavine. If they pull the plug, can they keep their pick away from the Spurs for three straight years?

Atlanta is looking solid at the moment. They finally have a good coach, but seem likely to be above average at best. The emergence of Jalen Johnson has helped the guard duo of Dejounte and Trae, but they seem to lack depth or other strengths. Right now seem destined to mediocre their way to not giving us outstanding picks.

Extenuating circumstance: Only one of these picks comes from the Western Conference. The EC doesn't look terrific right now, where shakiness abounds. Milwaukee for some reason grabbed a rookie coach. Cleveland's dream may be over if Donovan Mitchell bolts. Brooklyn is at a low rebuild level. Miami's glory run masked mediocrity and they lost some guns. Sixers with Embiid are good but not worldbeaters. Knicks are the Knicks. Only Orlando looks young and upcoming. Basically, there are playoff spots open, both this year and moving forward. Plus more wins available for conference opponents. Good for our Charlotte pick, okay for our Toronto pick, bad for our Atlanta pick.

[John B]

:bobo

[R. DeMurre]

Nice post. Rewatching that last Atlanta game after work, I did get a bit of a sinking feeling because their starting five plus Okungwu look pretty solid, and Jalen Johnson is starting to look like a legit prototypical modern forward... which means all of those unprotected picks potentially start to lose value. I'm still convinced the Spurs need to make at least one good consolidation trade of player(s) + picks before the Wemby era starts for real, and with Wemby looking better than expected faster than expected, that reality might mean that trade has to come earlier than expected.

[TD 21]

Nice post. Rewatching that last Atlanta game after work, I did get a bit of a sinking feeling because their starting five plus Okungwu look pretty solid, and Jalen Johnson is starting to look like a legit prototypical modern forward... which means all of those unprotected picks potentially start to lose value. I'm still convinced the Spurs need to make at least one good consolidation trade of player(s) + picks before the Wemby era starts for real, and with Wemby looking better than expected faster than expected, that reality might mean that trade has to come earlier than expected.

Solid, but still lacking a path to championship contention. Once Young accepts that, he'll more than likely request a trade just in time for those picks to start conveying.

I agree with the point though and it's one I alluded to in the off season. The Spurs would be wise to not fall into the trap of being overly cautious for a multitude of reasons (how good Wembanyama already appears to be, his questionable longevity, how unlikely it is to comprise a championship contending core through one avenue).

[spurraider21]

I’m not really concerned about chicago or Toronto dodging for 3 consecutive years.

Charlotte looks really bad though. Whole is less than sum of its parts.

[Fizziksman]

I’m not really concerned about chicago or Toronto dodging for 3 consecutive years.

Charlotte looks really bad though. Whole is less than sum of its parts.

Yeah Hornets are barely eking wins. Should regress.

[rascal]

Can't count on any of these picks to be a top 5-10 lottery pick. Both Toronto and Charlotte might not convey this year. It's best the Spurs don't win enough this year to guarantee their own top 5-10 lottery pick next draft.

They still need to add talent to this team and they'll be soon back in the middle of the draft with their own draft picks. Harder to build a winner with middle of the pack draft picks.

[mo7888]

Good post/thread... Solid analysis in the OP. I expect Toronto to convey this year. Charlotte is the one I'd be most concerned about conveying followed by Chicago (although I do believe it conveys). The juicy ones to me are Boston and Dallas.

[baseline bum]

Sweet, we have infinite draft capital?

[Chinook]

I remember when we used to have a thread about that Clippers second-rounder back in the day that the Spurs got from the Theo Ratliff trade. It was seen as a fake pick because LAC was horrible when it was first given out. But then they started the Lob City era, and that pick did end up being in the bottom five of the round. What a ways this team has come.

[baseline bum]

Can't count on any of these picks to be a top 5-10 lottery pick. Both Toronto and Charlotte might not convey this year. It's best the Spurs don't win enough this year to guarantee their own top 5-10 lottery pick next draft.

They still need to add talent to this team and they'll be soon back in the middle of the draft with their own draft picks. Harder to build a winner with middle of the pack draft picks.

Between their likely lottery pick this year plus all their other draft picks either the trade deadline or this summer looks like it might be time to go after that second star.

[scott]

Been saying for awhile there are concerns with that Chicago pick. We will need to keep a careful eye on what they decide to do in the Windy City.

[Mr. Body]

Charlotte fired Borrego in part because he wasn't playing Kai Jones and James Bouknight. Jones is off the team and Bouknight is technically on the squad but he's done. They did bring back the coach who last took them to the playoffs like eight years ago. The team did go 43-39 two years ago (last Borrego year) and I think that will be enough for the playoffs this year. Mark Williams is a floor raiser. They look like they want to win, and why wouldn't they? They just look wild in part because you can't run sets with Lamelo on the team. And then they gave up 50 points to Indiana last night in the third - 50.

Just hard to believe they'll get more consistent or dangerous. And Rozier just sprained his groin.

[RC_Drunkford]

I think there's a good chance the Toronto pick can fall in the 7-12 range this year. I also think the Spurs should look to trade their own picks instead of the accumulated ones from other teams, cause once the Spurs are contenders those should still be higher. The Hornets pick should definitely be in a trade though, I can't see that one converting anytime soon.

[BatManu20]

This is why I said the other day that the best thing for the Spurs' this year would be competitive losses. Spurs badly need a lottery pick this year, particularly with both Toronto and Charlotte's picks unlikely to convey. Wemby raises this team's floor too high for that to happen though.

[Mr. Body]

This is why I said the other day that the best thing for the Spurs' this year would be competitive losses. Spurs badly need a lottery pick this year, particularly with both Toronto and Charlotte's picks unlikely to convey. Wemby raises this team's floor too high for that to happen though.

It's not going to happen. The team needs to learn how to win games and now's the time to push it. Even without Victor they were going to be looking at 30+ wins (barring injuries). Losing to get a good draft pick is a bad idea. You're wasting a year of development and you may end up with a crappy player. It just so happens that we somehow won Wembanyama and this obscures what a bad strategy it is.

[BatManu20]

It's not going to happen. The team needs to learn how to win games and now's the time to push it. Even without Victor they were going to be looking at 30+ wins (barring injuries). Losing to get a good draft pick is a bad idea. You're wasting a year of development and you may end up with a crappy player. It just so happens that we somehow won Wembanyama and this obscures what a bad strategy it is.

I'm not talking about tanking though. I'm saying I was hoping we'd be trying to win while developing our players, but that we would still wind up with a top-10 pick regardless. But like I said, it's not happening anyways cause Wemby is too good, so the point is moot.

[BatManu20]

Offseason strategy:

Draft Bronny James, sign LeBron in Free Agency (who said he wants to play with his son), trade those draft picks for Steph Curry (who LeBron said last year he'd like to play with), and lets start winning some Championships in 2025 tbh.