*** 2023 Election Night Thread *** [Archive]

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Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 12:07 AM

Ef-man

11-07-2023, 12:21 AM

More terrible wish casting (but luckily without the travel log and female conquests while traveling with your mom), par.

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 08:01 AM

Not a ton going on this year...

Still enough to talk about.

-KY governor: prediction Tilt D (Beshear*)
-MS governor: prediction Likely R (Reeves*)

-Ohio legal abortion ballot measure: Yes + 14

-Virginia state House: R 52 - D 48
-Virginia state Senate: R 20 - D 20

-New Jersey state House and state Senate stay [D] majority

-PA State Supreme Court: Likely D (D+6-8%)
Mostly agree with these predictions except i think KY Gov is lean D (borderline likely D given how atrocious Daniel N!gger is as a candidate) and I think the Dems hold the VA State senate. The state senate is gonna come down to a Biden +13 Loudoun county seat that Rs definitely have a chance in but the Dems recruited a great candidate for it.

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 09:00 AM

Other interesting things to watch:

Ohio legalized weed referendum - my hunch has been that public sentiment has been turning against legalized weed recently and that this measure will fail. We’ll see.

Carmel, Indiana mayoral election - obviously no one gives a shit about a mayoral election, but this used to be a dark red city so if the Dems competes and/or wins it’s a sign of how suburban trends are going.

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 09:02 AM

More terrible wish casting (but luckily without the travel log and female conquests while traveling with your mom), par.
His Virginia senate prediction might be a slight wishcast but it’s not an unreasonable prediction and could def happen. I think the Ds end up with 21 or 22 state senate seats and anywhere from 49-51 state assembly seats.

Some of his other predictions are actually more D leaning than I’m expecting. I think the D only wins the PA Supreme Court seat by 4% or so and I think abortion only passes in Ohio by 10%.

Ef-man

11-07-2023, 09:59 AM

His Virginia senate prediction might be a slight wishcast but it’s not an unreasonable prediction and could def happen. I think the Ds end up with 21 or 22 state senate seats and anywhere from 49-51 state assembly seats.

Some of his other predictions are actually more D leaning than I’m expecting. I think the D only wins the PA Supreme Court seat by 4% or so and I think abortion only passes in Ohio by 10%.

Abortion rights are too much of an issue with VA voters.

The GOP will get clobbered over it.

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 11:40 AM

Mostly agree with these predictions except i think KY Gov is lean D (borderline likely D given how atrocious Daniel N!gger is as a candidate) and I think the Dems hold the VA State senate. The state senate is gonna come down to a Biden +13 Loudoun county seat that Rs definitely have a chance in but the Dems recruited a great candidate for it.

I would have said Likely D a month ago, but the last two polls have them either tied or the one from Emerson that has Cameron up by 1%. And they're the same pollster that gave Beshear the 16% lead. I do agree that everyone from Trump downwards haven't done shit to help Cameron in the race, but let's not act like he's some Herschel Walker with all the affairs and aborted/neglected kids and shit he had going on last year. Not to mention that he couldn't complete a proper sentence and was basically John Fetterman south with the CTE.

I'm going with Tilt D because Beshear has been the favorite all year up until this point and it's a conservative state despite the fact that a lot of boomer conservatives in KY are still registered Democrats and never changed their party registration because ....why waste the time?

His Virginia senate prediction might be a slight wishcast but it’s not an unreasonable prediction and could def happen. I think the Ds end up with 21 or 22 state senate seats and anywhere from 49-51 state assembly seats.

Some of his other predictions are actually more D leaning than I’m expecting. I think the D only wins the PA Supreme Court seat by 4% or so and I think abortion only passes in Ohio by 10%.
That Biden +13 West Loudoun County seat was Youngkin +2 , iirc. The parent strike against the teachers union and Governor Northam area, that garnered national press attention and rightfully so.

I expected abortion to pass in Michigan by only 7-9% last year and it passed by 14-15% and carried Whitmer and the rest to easy victory. The rust belt is overwhelmingly pro choice and even the average conservative there is moderate on abortion, maybe in favor of the 21 week ban solution, but definitely not in favor of the "muh life begins at conception no exceptions" evangelical crap, which was technically state law in Michigan for the second half of 2022.

Other interesting things to watch:

Ohio legalized weed referendum - my hunch has been that public sentiment has been turning against legalized weed recently and that this measure will fail. We’ll see.

Carmel, Indiana mayoral election - obviously no one gives a shit about a mayoral election, but this used to be a dark red city so if the Dems competes and/or wins it’s a sign of how suburban trends are going.

Carmel Indiana mayor race will probably go red by a single digit likely margin IMO. Maybe slightly higher due to Biden's unfavorables / national environment. Not the R+25 or so city of years past. It's actually a hippie little city (NOT hipster like say Portland or Seattle or Asheville though) with a booming little arts district, lots of roundabouts, and no stoplights (I've been there 3-4 times) which is, in general, a Democratic-led infrastructure city planning concept. I'm not calling roundabouts woke, I'm just saying they're more of a left-wing, outside-the-box way of thinking. Nothing wrong with them. But Carmel also is very white and supportive of the police and meat-eating there. My face is on the wall of fame at Bub's Burgers & Ice Cream in downtown Carmel, twice, once with Marissa from 2019 and the other time solo in 2021, both for eating the 32-ounce elk burger ("big ugly") in 30 minutes or something like that.

I disagree though on Ohio legalizing cannabis. I don't believe public sentiment at all has been turning against legalization, apart from evangelicals; in fact the opposite. I'm not a pot smoker at all and I don't think pot use has necessarily gone up dramatically in the last 10 years, but conservatives in the rust belt are much more moderate on those type of social issues, even if they're more conservative on issues like normalized transgender and non-binary/gay counterculture being mainstream, gay/trans activity in bathrooms/cross sports, transgender surgeries under 18 and graduated from high school (not to be confused with gay marriage; I don't believe most libertarians are in favor of overturning Obergefell v Hodges).

In Michigan in Nov. 2018, legalization of marijuana passed (Prop 1, 2018) by 11.7%, granted it was a blue wave year. That's a good barometer for Ohio.

I think in Ohio it [Ohio Prop 2] will pass by a single-digit likely margin, around 7-8% or so.

On the subject of abortion... in Michigan in 2022 just last year, [Michigan Prop 3] passed by 13.3%, with Whitmer's favorable rating at +6.4% (hers has actually gone up in 2023, while Biden continues to tank), Biden's favorable rating at -8.4%, and Biden's job approval rating at -11.4%. Today, Biden's favorable rating is -13.8% (significantly worse), Biden's job approval is -14.8%.

However, Ohio voted significantly against the August 8th referendum to require a 60% threshold to pass Ohio Issue 1, by 14.2%, so I think a similar margin is in order for Yes for this vote. Expect enormous voter turnout from the college campuses and Columbus specifically for the abortion issue, even if those low-propensity voters wouldn't be enthused to vote for say, Biden or Sherrod Brown.

Think of all the (relatively) conservative fraternity/sorority kids at, say, OSU (one of the 5 biggest schools in America in terms of undergrad enrollment and attendance), who might have gotten pregnant or gotten someone pregnant accidentally (or known someone who has) and had to get Plan B or an abortion. They don't want Big Government legislating over their bodies or their partner's bodies, and I stand with them on that issue. [I was one of them. Who the fuck actually uses condoms unless you're bagging some ghetto bitch from the bar?]

Abortion rights are too much of an issue with VA voters.

The GOP will get clobbered over it.

But, school choice is also a big deal in VA in the outer suburbs, places like Loudoun and Prince William counties. That's what flipped the 2021 governorship. A lot of those swing voters are both pro choice and pro school choice, and the VA Dem Senate has blocked a lot of school choice legislation against the majority opinion of the state, so we'll have to see tonight.

One interesting caveat is that if it's 20-20 in the VA Senate then, in theory, GOP Lt. Gov Winsome Sears, similar to VPOTUS, can serve as the tie breaker vote on Senate legislation.

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 01:35 PM

I would have said Likely D a month ago, but the last two polls have them either tied or the one from Emerson that has Cameron up by 1%. And they're the same pollster that gave Beshear the 16% lead. I do agree that everyone from Trump downwards haven't done shit to help Cameron in the race, but let's not act like he's some Herschel Walker with all the affairs and aborted/neglected kids and shit he had going on last year. Not to mention that he couldn't complete a proper sentence and was basically John Fetterman south with the CTE.

I'm going with Tilt D because Beshear has been the favorite all year up until this point and it's a conservative state despite the fact that a lot of boomer conservatives in KY are still registered Democrats and never changed their party registration because ....why waste the time?

That Biden +13 West Loudon County seat was Youngkin +2 , iirc. The parent strike against the teachers union seat.

I expected abortion to pass in Michigan by only 7-9% last year and it passed by 14-15% and carried Whitmer and the rest to easy victory. The rust belt is overwhelmingly pro choice and even the average conservative there is moderate on abortion, maybe in favor of the 21 week ban solution, but definitely not in favor of the "muh life begins at conception no exceptions" evangelical crap, which was technically state law in Michigan for the second half of 2022.

Carmel Indiana mayor race will probably go red by a single digit likely margin IMO. Maybe slightly higher due to Biden's unfavorables / national environment. Not the R+25 or so city of years past. It's actually a hippie little city with roundabouts and no stoplights (I've been there a few times) which is, in general, a Democratic-led infrastructure city planning concept. I'm not calling roundabouts woke, I'm just saying they're more of a left-wing, outside-the-box way of thinking. Nothing wrong with them.

I disagree though on Ohio legalizing cannabis. I don't believe public sentiment at all has been turning against legalization, apart from evangelicals; in fact the opposite. I'm not a pot smoker at all and I don't think pot use has necessarily gone up dramatically in the last 10 years, but conservatives in the rust belt are much more moderate on those type of social issues, even if they're more conservative on issues like normalized transgender and non-binary/gay counterculture being mainstream, gay/trans activity in bathrooms/cross sports, transgender surgeries under 18 and graduated from high school (not to be confused with gay marriage; I don't believe most libertarians are in favor of overturning Obergefell v Hodges).

In Michigan in Nov. 2018, legalization of marijuana passed (Prop 1, 2018) by 11.7%, granted it was a blue wave year. That's a good barometer for Ohio.

I think in Ohio it [Ohio Prop 2] will pass by a single-digit likely margin, around 7-8% or so.

On the subject of abortion... in Michigan in 2022 just last year, [Michigan Prop 3] passed by 13.3%, with Whitmer's favorable rating at +6.4% (hers has actually gone up in 2023, while Biden continues to tank), Biden's favorable rating at -8.4%, and Biden's job approval rating at -11.4%. Today, Biden's favorable rating is -13.8% (significantly worse), Biden's job approval is -14.8%.

However, Ohio voted significantly against the August 8th referendum to require a 60% threshold to pass Ohio Issue 1, by 14.2%, so I think a similar margin is in order for Yes for this vote. Expect enormous voter turnout from the college campuses and Columbus specifically for the abortion issue, even if those low-propensity voters wouldn't be enthused to vote for say, Biden or Sherrod Brown.

Think of all the (relatively) conservative fraternity/sorority kids at, say, OSU (one of the 5 biggest schools in America in terms of undergrad enrollment and attendance), who might have gotten pregnant or gotten someone pregnant accidentally (or known someone who has) and had to get Plan B or an abortion. They don't want Big Government legislating over their bodies or their partner's bodies, and I stand with them on that issue. [I was one of them. Who the fuck actually uses condoms unless you're bagging some ghetto bitch from the bar?]
I think you’re drawing too many parallels between Michigan and Ohio. Yes they’re both Midwestern but Ohio isn’t an “upper Midwest” state demographically or ideologically the way Wisconsin/Michigan/Minnesota are. It has socially conservative Appalachia voters in the Ohio Valley and its southern counties have a lot of evangelicals. Cincinnati in a lot of ways is a southern city with dark red suburbs.

The western rural German counties in Ohio are also a lot more conservative than the German rural counties in MI/WI - they haven’t voted blue since FDR took sides against Germany in WWII.

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 01:48 PM

I think you’re drawing too many parallels between Michigan and Ohio. Yes they’re both Midwestern but Ohio isn’t an “upper Midwest” state demographically or ideologically the way Wisconsin/Michigan/Minnesota are. It has socially conservative Appalachia voters in the Ohio Valley and its southern counties have a lot of evangelicals. Cincinnati in a lot of ways is a southern city with dark red suburbs.

The western rural German counties in Ohio are also a lot more conservative than the German rural counties in MI/WI - they haven’t voted blue since FDR took sides against Germany in WWII.
Not to mention that MI and WI exurban rural counties are more Polish and Dutch than German. WI has quite a lot of German heritage in the eastern half of the state.

The main "bingo" in your post is the Appalachia voters in the Southeastern quadrant, aside from Athens which is a liberal college enclave (has been deep blue since Lyndon Johnson went there to promote his "Great Society" woke crap). They're socially conservative ancestral Ds that vote like West Virginia these days. The rural west of Ohio are ancestral Rs like the Cincinnati exurbs.

The one thing the Dems have going for them in Ohio is more deep blue stronghold cities than either MI or WI. And that's even factoring in the collapse in and around Youngstown. The GOP has tons of room to grow in rural and the small metros of MI and WI which favor them demographically, versus a state like PA where the GOP is mostly maxed out in the rural counties and only has room to grow in the west PA Pittsburgh exurban region while the Dems still have plenty of room to grow in the ever expanding, highly college educated and multiracial Philadelphia collar suburbs.

That's why I think Scranton Joe holds on PA [narrowly] in 2024, also let's not underestimate the fact that Bob Casey Jr. being on the ticket could carry him upstream to a narrow victory there. I believe pundits are being overly bullish for Trump on PA but overly bearish for Trump on WI and especially MI, which is more socially moderate with room to grow, a pissed off WWC sector (both union and non union) and an open senate seat. I don't think it's hard to envision a scenario where PA is Tilt to Lean Biden, WI is Tilt Trump and MI is Lean Trump in 2024. Ohio likely to safe Trump, Minnesota lean to likely Biden. Minnesota is basically Illinois junior at this point with the concentration of population in the Twin Cities which pretty much dominate that state's population like Chicago does.

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 02:06 PM

I could definitely see a map like this unfold in 2024, give or take a Sun Belt state:

[NOTE: I use the LTE 5-15% margin for Likely, so don't be upset that a couple states like NY/NJ/IL are in the Likely column]

https://i.imgur.com/hvrBNQA.jpg

One caveat is that I think ME-02 could go red by a likely not lean margin, but it's academic. We'll see about the Golden/Theriault race, it could be the most difficult of Golden's career considering he used a tragedy to politicize and flip-flop on guns in a pro-gun district where the household gun ownership rate is over 65%.

Nevada doesn't really matter in this scenario; you flip either Georgia or Arizona red and Trump wins IMO. Georgia being the easier of the two because it's got more of a rural population than AZ. The three-way Senate race could carry Lake considering Gallego isn't a moderate at all and doesn't pretend to be. Doesn't necessarily mean Trump will win because a lot of Sinema voters will be voting Biden.

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 07:33 PM

:lmao it didn't take very long for the race to be called for Beshear

:lol black Republicans taking Ls per usual

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Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 07:55 PM

OK Millennial_Messiah might have been right about Issue 1 in Ohio, that looks like a blowout.

Ef-man

11-07-2023, 08:23 PM

OK Millennial_Messiah might have been right about Issue 1 in Ohio, that looks like a blowout.

He had tilt not blowout.

spurraider21

11-07-2023, 08:27 PM

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spurraider21

11-07-2023, 08:28 PM

writing was on the wall in ohio after they voted down that bullshit proposed constitutional amendment last time

ElNono

11-07-2023, 08:40 PM

There’s no call yet in Ohio, but the Edison Research exit poll conducted for the TV news networks strongly suggest the state constitutional amendment to establish a right to an abortion will pass.

The numbers will change through the night, but the most interesting divides are along age (82 percent of voters under 30 voted yes, but only 46 percent of seniors did), marital status (married voters split evenly, but 68 percent of unmarried voters voted yes) and party ID (Democrats voted for it 92-8, Republicans 19-81 and independents 64-36).

ElNono

11-07-2023, 08:40 PM

Boomers doing boomers thangs

Ef-man

11-07-2023, 08:55 PM

So far, Dems are ahead in VA House and Senate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/virginia (https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/2023/virginia/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f001#va-senate)

Ef-man

11-07-2023, 08:59 PM

So much for Yam Tits supported Cameron in KY. :lol

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 09:00 PM

:lmao it didn't take very long for the race to be called for Beshear

:lol black Republicans taking Ls per usual

It was just called by NYT right now. Wasserman has been wrong before. Not often, but he has.

Beshear looks to probably win by about 3-4%, mid to high lean margin, after all the remaining vote is counted.

So much for Yam Tits supported Cameron in KY. :lol
Cameron was a solid AG candidate overall, a decent Republican candidate compared to say Herschel Walker; but a poor fit for the state. Too many ancestral (D) conservative Trump voters outstate are outright racist.

However, if you want to blame Trump for this result, blame him for not showing up and having rallies in Kentucky, not for his endorsement. It's not like Desantis's pick was beating Beshear either. Tons of money in that family, like the Casey's of Pennsylvania.

KY doesn't have explicit governor term limits but Beshear will likely not run for a third term because it's anti-traditional for a governor to run for a third term.

He had tilt not blowout.

Huh? I had Yes + 14

I had tilt in Kentucky because of two polls, particularly the Emerson poll which had Cameron + 1 a couple days ago. Realistically though I never expected Beshear to lose. He was up 16% in a poll in early October and I made a thread about that. That people making a big deal of Michigan Ds winning statewide races in 2022 making it a blue state for 2024 is fucking retarded. Look at Kentucky. Beshear's margin will be on the upper end of lean looks like.

OK Millennial_Messiah (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=50493) might have been right about Issue 1 in Ohio, that looks like a blowout.
Issue 1 called, likely Michigan margin or even higher.

Trump being a moderate on the issue, downstream effects of SCOTUS picks overturning Roe notwithstanding. Electorally, the GOP SCOTUS would have been better off overturning and privatizing SS and Medicare than Roe, to be quite honest.

writing was on the wall in ohio after they voted down that bullshit proposed constitutional amendment last time

Hopefully, Ohio Issue 2 also passes. That's the one I was hoping to pass even more. I mean, who doesn't love to smoke a joint and ride roller coasters at Cedar Point and Kings Island?

Absolutely, that was the harbinger. Populists overwhelmingly are pro freedom to choose, even if they're not necessarily pro-abortion themselves. Ohio and Michigan are two birds of a feather. Difference is Michigan has 1 major metro with 1 smaller metro that is deep blue while Ohio has three but scattered throughout the state, but more of Michigan is light red than Ohio to make up the difference.

Both MI and OH are overwhelmingly populist. Both will vote Trump in 2024. As will Kentucky and Kansas, despite the pro-choice (D) governors.

Ef-man

11-07-2023, 09:04 PM

CNN calling it for Beshear with 85% votes tallied (by close to 6% in KY, yes Kentucky).

spurraider21

11-07-2023, 09:07 PM

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Ef-man

11-07-2023, 09:10 PM

Huh? I had Yes + 14

I had tilt in Kentucky because of two polls, particularly the Emerson poll which had Cameron + 1 a couple days ago. Realistically though I never expected Beshear to lose. He was up 16% in a poll in early October and I made a thread about that. That people making a big deal of Michigan Ds winning statewide races in 2022 making it a blue state for 2024 is fucking retarded. Look at Kentucky. Beshear's margin will be on the upper end of lean looks like.

You had 14% for Ohio legal abortion ballot measure:not Beshear up 14%.

Reck

11-07-2023, 09:11 PM

GOP getting wrecked per par.

ElNono

11-07-2023, 09:13 PM

Trump being a moderate

Are you talking to yourself again?

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 09:14 PM

You had 14% for Ohio legal abortion ballot measure:not Beshear up 14%.

Exactly, 14% is nowhere near "tilt". And it's currently 15.5% so that's pretty much spot on for now. Don't think the late vote is necessarily GOP-heavy or election day only vote, either. It's just a populist state doing populist things.

I had Tilt for Beshear and it looks like it's going to be Lean... big deal. At least I never picked Cameron. I had Beshear winning by likely to safe margin before the last two polls favoring Cameron came out.

Are you talking to yourself again?
Trump absolutely 100% is a social moderate and center right on economics, but still on the populist side. He's only far-right on the "other" political issues like immigration, election integrity, originalism, limited government/deep state control, etc.

spurraider21

11-07-2023, 09:14 PM

i'd like to think my main-in ballot made the difference

https://i.gyazo.com/cdc6d2d54495be9f5e99ed240133a66e.png

ElNono

11-07-2023, 09:15 PM

Trump just says whatever will get him votes. All the Trumptards in Congress are the typical bible-thumper idiots rabid to ban abortion anywhere. See Tuberville, Johnson.

ElNono

11-07-2023, 09:16 PM

i'd like to think my main-in ballot made the difference

https://i.gyazo.com/cdc6d2d54495be9f5e99ed240133a66e.png

Mine too, tbh... Soros FTW

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 09:19 PM

I just really want Issue 2 to pass in Ohio:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/results-ohio-issue-2-legalize-marijuana.html

We're up double digits still, only half the vote counted though

spurraider21

11-07-2023, 09:20 PM

dems might be taking the Virginia house as well... :wow

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 09:25 PM

Dems have held the Virginia state senate

1722072374718169538

Reck

11-07-2023, 09:26 PM

Republicans paying for Roe V Wade pretty good.

Dumbest thing they ever did.

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 09:26 PM

dems might be taking the Virginia house as well... :wow
Is that OnlyFans woman gonna win? I really hope she does :lol

spurraider21

11-07-2023, 09:32 PM

Republicans paying for Roe V Wade pretty good.

Dumbest thing they ever did.
:lmao the backpedal

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spurraider21

11-07-2023, 09:33 PM

Is that OnlyFans woman gonna win? I really hope she does :lol
they just called the race for 58, which is my delegate

53-47, dem won

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 09:33 PM

:lmao looks like the OnlyFans chick is gonna win and will probably be the candidate who wins Dems the state assembly

Republicans are gonna fucking mald

Splits

11-07-2023, 09:40 PM

dems might be taking the Virginia house as well... :wow

looks like a lock at this point

ElNono

11-07-2023, 09:45 PM

Republicans paying for Roe V Wade pretty good.

Dumbest thing they ever did.

But Andy said everybody was going to forget about that by now... I need to go find and bump that shit take... :lol

Splits

11-07-2023, 09:45 PM

:lmao looks like the OnlyFans chick is gonna win and will probably be the candidate who wins Dems the state assembly

Republicans are gonna fucking mald

her race is basically tied with 80% reported... gonna be close

ElNono

11-07-2023, 09:48 PM

:lmao looks like the OnlyFans chick is gonna win and will probably be the candidate who wins Dems the state assembly

Republicans are gonna fucking mald

:lol can't wait for the fake outrage after they caught that pastor in Alabama cross-dressing and he ended up off'ing himself

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 09:50 PM

Dems flipped a Trump +35% state leg seat in New Jersey :lmao

spurraider21

11-07-2023, 09:58 PM

Will Hunting bow to your queen

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Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 10:01 PM

Dems flipped a Trump +35% state leg seat in New Jersey :lmao

Weed passed by double digits in Ohio :lmao basically same margin as Michigan for both abortion and weed.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/results-ohio-issue-2-legalize-marijuana.html

So much for .....muh popular opinion has turned on decriminalization of weed :lmao

Can't wait to have some THC edibles on my next Cedar Point visit on May 4th, 2024 with my new Michigan girlfriend :toast :toast :toast

Is that OnlyFans woman gonna win? I really hope she does :lol
Basically the democrat Boebert

She's literally ahead by 32 votes right now... ~80% in

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 10:04 PM

Weed passed by double digits in Ohio :lmao basically same margin as Michigan for both abortion and weed.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/results-ohio-issue-2-legalize-marijuana.html

So much for .....muh popular opinion has turned on decriminalization of weed :lmao

Can't wait to have some THC edibles on my next Cedar Point visit on May 4th, 2024 with my new Michigan girlfriend :toast :toast :toast

Basically the democrat Boebert
:lol laugh all you want, you can have your "I was right about legal weed" moral victory, your party is getting its teeth kicked in tonight

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 10:08 PM

:lol laugh all you want, you can have your "I was right about legal weed" moral victory, your party is getting its teeth kicked in tonight

the main thing in question tonight is Virginia... Beshear (KY) and Reeves (MS) were always winning. Abortion and weed were always winning in Ohio, and the PA supreme court race was always going blue.

Virginia house still hasn't been called. A lot of very close races. Gibson is up by less than 40 votes

But Andy said everybody was going to forget about that by now... I need to go find and bump that shit take... :lol
no, I said 2024

Presley's only chance it to keep Tater Tot under 50%

Unlikely, but most of Jackson hasn't reported FWIW.

Splits

11-07-2023, 10:08 PM

Presley's only chance it to keep Tater Tot under 50%

ElNono

11-07-2023, 10:12 PM

no, I said 2024

:lol We're 2 months removed from 2024

ElNono

11-07-2023, 10:14 PM

Trump absolutely 100% is a social moderate and center right on economics, but still on the populist side. He's only far-right on the "other" political issues like immigration, election integrity, originalism, limited government/deep state control, etc.

None of his voters are that, which ultimately is what matters. He's simply a con-man that says whatever the audience in front of him wants to hear.

This is how we ended up with tax cuts for the rich as his only noteworthy legislation during his tenure.

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 10:14 PM

the main thing in question tonight is Virginia... Beshear (KY) and Reeves (MS) were always winning. Abortion and weed were always winning in Ohio, and the PA supreme court race was always going blue.

Virginia house still hasn't been called. A lot of very close races. Gibson is up by less than 40 votes
:lol Gibson is up and most of the votes left are mail ballots that are going to be heavily Dem

Glenn Youngkin is now a lameduck and his presidential aspirations are done.

Cry Havoc

11-07-2023, 10:15 PM

:lol We're 2 months removed from 2024

Why the fuck would a re-elected D in a deeply red state vanish? :lol What an absurd take.

Dude has a national profile now. He can almost call his ticket. Probably being looked at by the Dems for lots of potential tickets in the future.

Cry Havoc

11-07-2023, 10:16 PM

:lol Gibson is up and most of the votes left are mail ballots that are going to be heavily Dem

Glenn Youngkin is now a lameduck and his presidential aspirations are done.

The field of potential POTUS candidates in 2028 for the GOP is going to be the sorriest group of politicians you've ever seen. If there are 12 of them, they might add up to 150 IQ points total. I'd buy tickets today for that shit.

ElNono

11-07-2023, 10:17 PM

Trump absolutely 100% is a social moderate and center right on economics, but still on the populist side. He's only far-right on the "other" political issues like immigration, election integrity, originalism, limited government/deep state control, etc.

You're also extremely kind to think he has the capacity to have any ideology at all. He's all about himself. Whatever keeps him in control and power is what he stands for, whatever that might look like.

spurraider21

11-07-2023, 10:19 PM

:lol Gibson is up and most of the votes left are mail ballots that are going to be heavily Dem

Glenn Youngkin is now a lameduck and his presidential aspirations are done.
He only won his seat because he rode the wave of the critical race theory nonsense stuff but nobody cares about that anymore since it was a made up problem to begin with. He was never going to be relevant nationally imho

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 10:19 PM

:lol it's official

1722089897429770571

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 10:22 PM

He only won his seat because he rode the wave of the critical race theory nonsense stuff but nobody cares about that anymore since it was a made up problem to begin with. He was never going to be relevant nationally imho
He only won because McAuliffe is a useless alcoholic fatass and because late 2021 was when Dems didn't get the memo that people were done with mask mandates and COVID restrictions imo

Honestly if he was as good of a candidate as people make him out to be he woulda won by 5% given the environment.

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 10:24 PM

Honestly Dems winning the suburban state senate districts they needed wasn't surprising, but getting the black turnout they needed in Hampton Roads and the rural blackbelt to flip the VA State Assembly isn't something I saw coming at all.

Reck

11-07-2023, 10:25 PM

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 10:26 PM

Had the Clinton stench as well.
Yep, his ties to the Clintons made him even more unlikable.

spurraider21

11-07-2023, 10:27 PM

spurraider21

11-07-2023, 10:28 PM

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 10:30 PM

He only won because McAuliffe is a useless alcoholic fatass and because late 2021 was when Dems didn't get the memo that people were done with mask mandates and COVID restrictions imo

Honestly if he was as good of a candidate as people make him out to be he woulda won by 5% given the environment.

Yeah, the GOP was clearly the party of momentum from the botched Afghanistan withdrawal timeframe all the way up until the day SCOTUS overturned Roe v Wade. Basically, from July 2021 to June 2022, the GOP had a golden opportunity to be the party of consistent victory. Biden's approval rating was -25% on RCP and gas prices were over $5/gallon nationally.

That was the GOP's golden opportunity to pounce and win elections, but what do they do? Just like Dak Prescott, shoot themselves in the foot. Overturning Roe was honestly worse electorally speaking than undoing Medicare and Social Security.

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 10:46 PM

Why the fuck would a re-elected D in a deeply red state vanish? :lol What an absurd take.

Dude has a national profile now. He can almost call his ticket. Probably being looked at by the Dems for lots of potential tickets in the future.
Honestly I highly doubt it, if you're implying that Beshear has some big time national viability outside of Kentucky. I don't think he would even come within 10% if he were to run for Mitch McConnell's open Senate seat in 2026. Federal elections are much different.

An opposite party governor running for senate as a challenger is only practical for moving the needle when the state is actually purple, like Rick Scott running in Florida in 2018, or potentially Kemp running against Ossoff in 2026.

Andy Beshear...? He's just Laura Kelly east. Not much else to it.

Ef-man

11-07-2023, 10:50 PM

Exactly, 14% is nowhere near "tilt". And it's currently 15.5% so that's pretty much spot on for now. Don't think the late vote is necessarily GOP-heavy or election day only vote, either. It's just a populist state doing populist things.

I had Tilt for Beshear and it looks like it's going to be Lean... big deal. At least I never picked Cameron. I had Beshear winning by likely to safe margin before the last two polls favoring Cameron came out.

Ohio abortion was your 14+.

It has nothing to do with Beshear beating Cameron; two different topics.

Beshear was not a tilt (1-2%), it was a schlong in a red state (by 5% per CNN).

Splits

11-07-2023, 10:55 PM

:lol Gibson is up and most of the votes left are mail ballots that are going to be heavily Dem

Glenn Youngkin is now a lameduck and his presidential aspirations are done.

Gained 900 votes now that the mail are counted :lol

Winehole23

11-07-2023, 11:05 PM

Overturning Roe was honestly worse electorally speaking than undoing Medicare and Social Security.and will be

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-YA3TrXsAAaOEU?format=png&name=small

Reck

11-07-2023, 11:11 PM

Another notch for Dems in PA. Daniel McCaffery won his bid for a Supreme Court seat.

Ef-man

11-07-2023, 11:13 PM

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 11:16 PM

:lol it’s officially Joever for Youngkin

1722103104009617575

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 11:17 PM

and will be

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-YA3TrXsAAaOEU?format=png&name=small

Like I said, third rail issue.

The GOP would have been better off telling SCOTUS to abolish Social Security and Medicare instead.

Like Dak Prescott with first and goal from the 5 with no timeouts but 27 seconds left, needing a touchdown to win the game, field goal does you no good, and making the mind-numbingly stupid decision to audible out of a pass play when the pass has been the only thing working the whole game, and instead calling QB Power up the middle... with no timeouts left....... ummmmmm...........

Being a fan of the Cowboys and the GOP is insufferably miserable.

:lol it’s officially Joever for Youngkin

1722103104009617575
I still think Youngkin and Zeldin are the front runners for 2028 GOP.

I mean who else is it going to be .... Desantis? He's shot himself in the foot one too many times and he has terrible communication skills and is completely unpresentable, unlike Youngkin.

Side question Will Hunting , do you think the NC GOP and Trump re-consider not running Mark Robinson for Governor of NC, considering how bad Cameron did tonight in KY? I mean, you're not going up against an incumbent, but still..... there's a lot of parallels to be drawn.

Trainwreck2100

11-07-2023, 11:17 PM

:lol Gibson is up and most of the votes left are mail ballots that are going to be heavily Dem

Glenn Youngkin is now a lameduck and his presidential aspirations are done.

All the dumbass parents rights idiots that voted him in thinking he gave a fuck about their kids

Winehole23

11-07-2023, 11:18 PM

:lol it’s officially Joever for Youngkin

1722103104009617575wow, that was fast

Will Hunting

11-07-2023, 11:21 PM

I still think Youngkin and Zeldin are the front runners for 2028 GOP.

I mean who else is it going to be .... Desantis? He's shot himself in the foot one too many times and he has terrible communication skills and is completely unpresentable, unlike Youngkin.
2028 is 5 years away, the frontrunner is probably someone you or I haven't heard of (or at least thought of) yet.

Katie Britt is someone who'd be very formidable.

Splits

11-07-2023, 11:23 PM

DDHQ called MS for Tater too

Winehole23

11-07-2023, 11:27 PM

preelection predilection

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-YiIIfW8AAvktj?format=jpg&name=smallhttps://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111352935634851178

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 11:31 PM

preelection predilection

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111352935634851178
He "helped" him by doing MAGA rallies in Texas and Florida and leaving Cameron to die in KY. A tweet doesn't mean shit.

Then again, Cameron was indeed McConnell's choice, as the incumbent AG, and Trump had little choice but to back him. He's basically a Tim Scott generic conservative, not a RINO, not a MAGA type by any stretch... somewhere in between.

Could have had someone stronger like Massie or Comer... or at least someone who isn't black. Ancestral [D] Trump voters are the most racist bloc in America, and they turned out in droves for Beshear tonight.

2028 is 5 years away, the frontrunner is probably someone you or I haven't heard of (or at least thought of) yet.

Katie Britt is someone who'd be very formidable.
Pretty face, but what separates her from a Kristi Noem or Tudor Dixon? She seems like another evangelical southern pick and not a populist at all. See her doing lousy in the upper Midwest. And she's not pro choice at all. She's a good fit for her state and Senate seat, but I don't envision her actually trying to run for president. Possibly VP.

If somehow she becomes frontrunner, the Dems might be inclined to pick Whitmer over Newsom to lead the ticket, which would make Newsom mad because I'm sure he's sitting in his mansion in Monterey Beach just tantalizing over his 2028 election that he probably already thinks he's got in the bag.

Spurminator

11-07-2023, 11:33 PM

and will be

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-YA3TrXsAAaOEU?format=png&name=small

Damn.... Did pro-lifers even know there was an election today?

Ef-man

11-07-2023, 11:37 PM

Damn.... Did pro-lifers even know there was an election today?

Covid did a bunch of them in as their thoughts and prayers did not help, sad but true.

daboom1

11-07-2023, 11:44 PM

https://twitter.com/VickieforNYC/status/1722085497017704954?t

:wow

daboom1

11-07-2023, 11:45 PM

https://twitter.com/LeeMZeldin/status/1722110114734453135?t

ElNono

11-07-2023, 11:49 PM

https://twitter.com/LeeMZeldin/status/1722110114734453135?t

:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao

Millennial_Messiah

11-07-2023, 11:50 PM

Covid did a bunch of them in as their thoughts and prayers did not help, sad but true.

There never were as many of them as the media made it seem like there were. Evangelicals at best make up 20% of the entire USA voter base, and that might be generous.

The rest of Trump voters are pissed off freedom fighters like me who lean libertarian on the social issues like abortion, weed, marriage equality that are simply pissed off with big government infringement on basic individual rights, corporatocracy/monopolies, communism in the form of gun confiscation, repeated attempts to undo the constitution and bill of rights, illegal aliens swarming like cockroaches all over the place, hard drugs and violent crime and gangbangers running rampant, failed foreign policy and warhawks, green new deal bullshit like making gas, meat, and energy prices sky high, inflationary economic policy, and a two tiered system of justice designed to benefit the ultra-rich and penalize middle class freedom fighters that just want to be left the fuck alone by big government.

:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao
Yeah, celebrating that as a consolation prize is pretty pathetic.

Holding on in Mississippi was tonight's biggest prize for the GOP, and that was expected. The main thing was basically getting killed in Virginia and we can fairly safely move the state back to the likely Biden column from lean for 2024. Similar goes for Tim Kaine's senate seat, imo.

Ah yes, the red wave of "winning a mayoral election in a red state". :lol

I legitimately can't tell if dab is taking the piss with that. That's how clownshoes the GOP is.
To be fair, not a red state, but it's like celebrating that Brian Fitzpatrick got re-elected in PA-01 last year but utterly failing to realize that the expected 2022 red tsunami of 240+ house seats never happened... just pathetic.

We aren't all stupid or anti pro choice like that. I promise.

Cry Havoc

11-07-2023, 11:50 PM

Ah yes, the red wave of "winning a mayoral election in a red state". :lol

:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao

I legitimately can't tell if dab is taking the piss with that. That's how clownshoes the GOP is.

MultiTroll

11-07-2023, 11:53 PM

preelection predilection
Of course Dunceold will just deny having ever said so.

Splits

11-08-2023, 12:03 AM

https://i.ibb.co/x3xHtNq/image.png

Onlyfans could still go down, there's a county that just started reporting heavily favoring the non-Onlyfans. But D's have another uncalled seat 53/47 91% reporting.

Ef-man

11-08-2023, 12:09 AM

MM's travel stories are a better read than his election night insights and excuses.

Splits

11-08-2023, 12:10 AM

But D's have another uncalled seat 53/47 91% reporting.

and that just got called for D

:lmao Repugs lose across the board tonight

Cry Havoc

11-08-2023, 12:10 AM

Honestly I highly doubt it, if you're implying that Beshear has some big time national viability outside of Kentucky. I don't think he would even come within 10% if he were to run for Mitch McConnell's open Senate seat in 2026. Federal elections are much different.

An opposite party governor running for senate as a challenger is only practical for moving the needle when the state is actually purple, like Rick Scott running in Florida in 2018, or potentially Kemp running against Ossoff in 2026.

Andy Beshear...? He's just Laura Kelly east. Not much else to it.

He has the highest approval rating of any Democratic Gov. in the country. Your scant dismissal of him is pretty silly considering who the last 2 term POTUS for the Democrats was, a Junior Senator from a deeply blue state (i.e., not politically advantageous to ticketing him).

ElNono

11-08-2023, 12:17 AM

Yeah, celebrating that as a consolation prize is pretty pathetic.

He's seething with the Ohio vote, being a fake Christian and all

ElNono

11-08-2023, 12:18 AM

He has the highest approval rating of any Democratic Gov. in the country. Your scant dismissal of him is pretty silly considering who the last 2 term POTUS for the Democrats was, a Junior Senator from a deeply blue state (i.e., not politically advantageous to ticketing him).

He won't survive a primary. Not to mention, I don't want anybody from a red state running this country.

Trill Clinton

11-08-2023, 12:31 AM

1722073610121039890

Thread

11-08-2023, 12:32 AM

He won't survive a primary. Not to mention, I don't want anybody from a red state running this country.

You certainly confirmed that when you went after Trump with bombs, swords, and guns.

Reck

11-08-2023, 12:41 AM

You certainly confirmed that when you went after Trump with bombs, swords, and guns.

Tough night, eh Thread?

Charge!

Ef-man

11-08-2023, 12:44 AM

According to the Virginia Department of Elections, 789,704 residents cast their ballots through early voting, including mail-in and in-person ballots. (Special shout out to Soros for another great “mailroom ballot stuffer” operation.)

Thread

11-08-2023, 01:01 AM

Tough night, eh Thread?

Charge!

In for penny.
In for pound.

clambake

11-08-2023, 02:11 AM

Tough night, eh Thread?

Charge!

Yep. He charged all the way down to the bunker….unlike any other president…..to never see the fabricated fairytale of Madonna.

Just a world class pussy.

Thread

11-08-2023, 02:32 AM

Yep. He charged all the way down to the bunker….unlike any other president…..to never see the fabricated fairytale of Madonna.

Just a world class pussy.

In for penny.
In for pound.

Winehole23

11-08-2023, 07:14 AM

1722121123704217866

Winehole23

11-08-2023, 07:20 AM

https://media.tenor.com/Ui9-MdUsQO0AAAAC/skeleton-falling.gif

Winehole23

11-08-2023, 07:25 AM

Damn.... Did pro-lifers even know there was an election today?the great man says the political process is rigged, I'd be discouraged too if I was being asked to shut up and vote harder.

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 07:33 AM

Like I said, third rail issue.

The GOP would have been better off telling SCOTUS to abolish Social Security and Medicare instead.

Like Dak Prescott with first and goal from the 5 with no timeouts but 27 seconds left, needing a touchdown to win the game, field goal does you no good, and making the mind-numbingly stupid decision to audible out of a pass play when the pass has been the only thing working the whole game, and instead calling QB Power up the middle... with no timeouts left....... ummmmmm...........

Being a fan of the Cowboys and the GOP is insufferably miserable.

I still think Youngkin and Zeldin are the front runners for 2028 GOP.

I mean who else is it going to be .... Desantis? He's shot himself in the foot one too many times and he has terrible communication skills and is completely unpresentable, unlike Youngkin.

Side question Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) , do you think the NC GOP and Trump re-consider not running Mark Robinson for Governor of NC, considering how bad Cameron did tonight in KY? I mean, you're not going up against an incumbent, but still..... there's a lot of parallels to be drawn.
Mark Robinson and Daniel Cameron are very different so no. Robinson ran for Lt. Governor and won without any political background. He’s as grassroots as it gets and the NC GOP base adores him. Daniel Cameron is fake and awkward and was basically forced on Kentucky as the gubernatorial candidate by overpaid GOP consultants.

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 08:17 AM

Thread

11-08-2023, 08:22 AM

Democrats had a good night but we need to get serious about what’s going on in NY. The state itself isn’t going to go red, but the races were losing in NY just show how toxic far left policies on immigration and crime have gotten.

We lost a city council seat in the Bronx and there’s now a Republican Suffolk County executive for the first time in 20 years. People simply don’t want the city they live in to be sheltering busloads of news migrants everyday.

Because of coalition shifts we’re now the party that overperforms in low turnout elections (like yesterday) but next year will be a whole different ball game when the rubes are coming out in full force to vote.

They'd rather cut off their nose to spite their faces than stop those "toxic far left policies on immigration and crime have gotten."

Though if they did they'd find MSM/CNN assisting in making that transition. Before you knew it (red) would be the bell cow on said {policies on immigration and crime.}

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 08:28 AM

They'd rather cut off their nose to spite their faces than stop those "toxic far left policies on immigration and crime have gotten."

Though if they did they'd find MSM/CNN assisting in making that transition. Before you knew it (red) would be the bell cow on said {policies on immigration and crime.}
Red already is the bell cow on immigration and crime despite the media being very pro mass immigration.

If Biden loses next year it will in large part be due to the unforced error of opening up the southern border with stupid executive orders that implement horrible asylum policies.

Thread

11-08-2023, 08:40 AM

Red already is the bell cow on immigration and crime despite the media being very pro mass immigration.

If Biden loses next year it will in large part be due to the unforced error of opening up the southern border with stupid executive orders that implement horrible asylum policies.

Your love of (abortion rights) rears it head again...the loss of that many Americans due to abortion starting in the early 70's was like an atom bomb was dropped. Sure, at first the numbers were acceptable, but then year after year, decade after decade it became dire to those who were privy to the stats and long range tables. Absolutely stunned. And so gov't R, or, D made the decision to let 'em in under the guise of humanitarian, yada, yads, yada. D's figured out quickly like Black, these Brown would vote not to 95% like Black, but, pretty damn close to that neighborhood. And it wouldn't matter how long it took to get them to the poll and mailboxes, "just get 'em here, get 'em a job and let them become fertile, give birth and we're set, well at least as set as we can be."

Winehole23

11-08-2023, 09:18 AM

For now, Mr. Youngkin may be the best test case of whether, at the national level, the Republican electorate still has any use for a champion who isn’t an aggrieved bomb thrower.bye now, Mr. Youngkin

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-Yo7azX0AAq1YR?format=jpg&name=mediumhttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/04/opinion/sunday/glenn-youngkin-virginia-election.html

Winehole23

11-08-2023, 09:22 AM

“I can’t pinpoint anything specifically, right? But it’s his vibe as far as what I get his intention is.”

Winehole23

11-08-2023, 09:22 AM

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/11/04/multimedia/04cottle-04-jclp/04cottle-04-jclp-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale

Thread

11-08-2023, 09:45 AM

In for penny.
In for pound.

Spurminator

11-08-2023, 11:33 AM

:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao

That poor motherfucker has the worst copium dependency I've ever seen.

Millennial_Messiah

11-08-2023, 11:34 AM

Mark Robinson and Daniel Cameron are very different so no. Robinson ran for Lt. Governor and won without any political background. He’s as grassroots as it gets and the NC GOP base adores him. Daniel Cameron is fake and awkward and was basically forced on Kentucky as the gubernatorial candidate by overpaid GOP consultants.

I agree, and I think a lot of conservatives in KY thought the same, not just the partially true but impractical justification that they're racist. They know very well their state house, state senate, state court are all roughly 80-20% supermajority that can smash through all bills with Beshear having no veto power so they can afford to have a Democrat figurehead for 4 more years whose job is basically to present himself well and wave to the crowd every year at the Kentucky Derby and other state events like that.

Even though he's more progressive ideologically than his blue dog father, Steve, he's still a Kentucky native son and Daniel Cameron is not only socially awkward but he's a carpetbagger from Plano, Texas. Beshear has a 59% approval rating in KY while Biden's approval rating in KY is roughly half of that. He's a figurehead with good public speaking ability and literally means nothing for state legislation and Kentucky voters know it.

I could definitely see Cameron upsetting the base if he had defeated Beshear and gone on to become governor. Herschel Walker was another one (senate candidate, but still black GOP who McConnell hand selected and was basically unopposed for the senate primary) who was even more awkward than Cameron and wasn't all that popular with the base even though conservatives were hoping he'd beat Warnock because they hate Warnock much worse.

Robinson on the other hand has been touted by the MAGA base as being one of their favorite grassroots candidates, like Byron Donalds an actual authentic conservative on the political issues (not necessarily the strictly social or economic issues, but the "other" issues like immigration and foreign policy that Trump touts) not just another milquetoast black republican like Tim Scott, who IMO is in the same category as Cameron for being just a generic black GOP politician. Scott has certainly made an ass of himself in presentation/speaking skills in the first two GOP primary debates and in general.

Democrats had a good night but we need to get serious about what’s going on in NY. The state itself isn’t going to go red, but the races were losing in NY just show how toxic far left policies on immigration and crime have gotten.

We lost a city council seat in the Bronx and there’s now a Republican Suffolk County executive for the first time in 20 years. People simply don’t want the city they live in to be sheltering busloads of news migrants everyday.

Because of coalition shifts we’re now the party that overperforms in low turnout elections (like yesterday) but next year will be a whole different ball game when the rubes are coming out in full force to vote.

Yup, and looks like the GOP did save face in Virginia after all, and even though NYT hasn't yet called the last 2 house races and the last Senate race (Diggs), other outlets have, and Owen did end up defeating Gibson after all. No Democrat Lauren Boebert for you... sorry bro!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/results-virginia-state-legislature.html

Looks like the final tally in Virginia is::

Senate: 21D - 19R (GOP actually flipped a seat)
House: 51D - 49R (Dems flipped two seats)

Youngkin won't get a first trimester abortion ban through, but he can still potentially get some conservative-ish legislation through if he can get one senator and one or two house members to make a deal.

***

As for the New York stuff, that's kind of what you get electorally speaking when you have hard-left policy on the issues that are more important than abortion, such as immigration, crime, [free trade], [covid], being soft on homeless, and the like.

Ironically Covid saved Hochul's job and the state from potentially becoming purple to pink by 2024. The 2020 Census didn't do Florida justice; it's likely that if the Census were held in 2022 instead of 2020, that Florida would currently have 5 additional House seats and electoral votes, and New York would have 2 less, NJ, CA, and MA would all have 1 less. The great Covid conservative migration of 2020-21 was very real.

Red already is the bell cow on immigration and crime despite the media being very pro mass immigration.

If Biden loses next year it will in large part be due to the unforced error of opening up the southern border with stupid executive orders that implement horrible asylum policies.

Yup. Trump re-emphasizing the policies (anti-immigration, protectionist on trade, tough on crime, tough on terror) that won him 2016 will go perhaps even further in 2024 especially considering Islam is once again a threat as it was in 2016 but wasn't in 2020. He could even win the popular vote this time as well as winning the rust belt and sun belt states. These midterms and off year elections really don't mean jack shit for Trump/Biden.

Hate him or not, Trump is one of the best GOP candidates out there in finessing the abortion issue... someone like Zeldin is, too. Someone like Desantis really can't because he pushed for that six week abortion ban in Florida which kind of makes him unelectable at the federal level these days.

Your love of (abortion rights) rears it head again...the loss of that many Americans due to abortion starting in the early 70's was like an atom bomb was dropped. Sure, at first the numbers were acceptable, but then year after year, decade after decade it became dire to those who were privy to the stats and long range tables. Absolutely stunned. And so gov't R, or, D made the decision to let 'em in under the guise of humanitarian, yada, yads, yada. D's figured out quickly like Black, these Brown would vote not to 95% like Black, but, pretty damn close to that neighborhood. And it wouldn't matter how long it took to get them to the poll and mailboxes, "just get 'em here, get 'em a job and let them become fertile, give birth and we're set, well at least as set as we can be."

I still don't really understand the hard right's stance on abortion, especially from an analytical, electoral perspective. One, it's a third rail issue, in the sense that an overwhelming percentage of the USA population is pro freedom to choose. Second, the vast majority of aborted fetuses were by Democrat, liberal voters, certainly not GOP voters, so the vast majority of the aborted potential babies are the ones who would have voted overwhelmingly Democrat, minimum 80-20%, particularly in the black community as blacks have the highest abortion rate per capita by a mile. Then you have white liberals who abort far more than white conservatives, and white moderates who could vote either way but generally only abort if (a) they're too young to realistically provide for kids, or, (b) the fetus has mutations like missing limbs, retardation, down's syndrome or other trisomies that would give the potential baby and the parents a very challenging life, so it's better to have the abortion in that case.

So no claims of MASSIVE VOTE FRAUD after you guys lost the highest profile elections again?

You just plain failed this time?
Absolutely not. And not in 2022, either. Nor, 2018, 2012, 2008, 2006, or any other recent year in which the Democrats outperformed us.

The only case still remains 2020 in 4-5 states and that's because a lot of shady shit happened under the table during peak covid timeframe including the bio-engineered origins of covid itself and the evil geniuses like Fauci behind it, working with the Chinese to unleash a bio-terror weapon to "experiment" on the masses and create world chaos.

The problem isn't early vote/mail in votes, like what spurraider21 posted in most cases that system works; it's just that due to covid and all the covid policy and chaos caused by covid, and the covid-associated summer 2020 riots et all (sorry Will Hunting, your 2028 pet cat Walz will have to eat that shit sandwich in a potential presidential primary too ... still say Newsom and Whitmer are your best for '28) ... there is a reasonable argument to be made that there was a massive clusterfuck due to overloading of resources and it was very easy to cheat in 2020, really for both sides, but the Dems seized the opportunity to stuff in extra votes that the GOP did not.

The QAnon claims of elections post-2020, such as Kari Lake's, were "stolen/cheated/rigged" are absolutely baseless. Covid has been over for a long time now.

Thread

11-08-2023, 11:43 AM

I agree, and I think a lot of conservatives in KY thought the same, not just the partially true but impractical justification that they're racist. They know very well their state house, state senate, state court are all roughly 80-20% supermajority that can smash through all bills with Beshear having no veto power so they can afford to have a Democrat figurehead for 4 more years whose job is basically to present himself well and wave to the crowd every year at the Kentucky Derby and other state events like that.

Even though he's more progressive ideologically than his blue dog father, Steve, he's still a Kentucky native son and Daniel Cameron is not only socially awkward but he's a carpetbagger from Plano, Texas. Beshear has a 59% approval rating in KY while Biden's approval rating in KY is roughly half of that. He's a figurehead with good public speaking ability and literally means nothing for state legislation and Kentucky voters know it.

I could definitely see Cameron upsetting the base if he had defeated Beshear and gone on to become governor. Herschel Walker was another one (senate candidate, but still black GOP who McConnell hand selected and was basically unopposed for the senate primary) who was even more awkward than Cameron and wasn't all that popular with the base even though conservatives were hoping he'd beat Warnock because they hate Warnock much worse.

Robinson on the other hand has been touted by the MAGA base as being one of their favorite grassroots candidates, like Byron Donalds an actual authentic conservative on the political issues (not necessarily the strictly social or economic issues, but the "other" issues like immigration and foreign policy that Trump touts) not just another milquetoast black republican like Tim Scott, who IMO is in the same category as Cameron for being just a generic black GOP politician. Scott has certainly made an ass of himself in presentation/speaking skills in the first two GOP primary debates and in general.

Andrew, the voice of reason & moderation in troubled times.

Ange

ChumpDumper

11-08-2023, 12:03 PM

So no claims of MASSIVE VOTE FRAUD after you guys lost the highest profile elections again?

You just plain failed this time?

ChumpDumper

11-08-2023, 12:23 PM

muh 2:cry2:cry

Thread

11-08-2023, 12:31 PM

So no claims of MASSIVE VOTE FRAUD after you guys lost the highest profile elections again?

You just plain failed this time?

Trump President.
Not Clinton.

Thread

11-08-2023, 12:38 PM

I still don't really understand the hard right's stance on abortion, especially from an analytical, electoral perspective. One, it's a third rail issue, in the sense that an overwhelming percentage of the USA population is pro freedom to choose. Second, the vast majority of aborted fetuses were by Democrat, liberal voters, certainly not GOP voters, so the vast majority of the aborted potential babies are the ones who would have voted overwhelmingly Democrat, minimum 80-20%, particularly in the black community as blacks have the highest abortion rate per capita by a mile. Then you have white liberals who abort far more than white conservatives, and white moderates who could vote either way but generally only abort if (a) they're too young to realistically provide for kids, or, (b) the fetus has mutations like missing limbs, retardation, down's syndrome or other trisomies that would give the potential baby and the parents a very challenging life, so it's better to have the abortion in that case.

It's terribly difficult for people to separate the abortion issue past the first hurdle...killing a child in the womb. Some people///and more each day as boomers die out and boomers finally give up the ghost and go along to get along, and move decidedly away from the dead babies, seal 'em off from their lives. I don't understand how, but to deny it is wrong and wrong-headed. That ain't me. Ever. It's my religion.

Cry Havoc

11-08-2023, 01:23 PM

He won't survive a primary. Not to mention, I don't want anybody from a red state running this country.

Oh I don't think he's geared/gearing up for a White House run. But being a successful Gov gives him a lot of flexibility for appointments from whoever is President when he's done with Kentucky.

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 02:29 PM

Yup, and looks like the GOP did save face in Virginia after all, and even though NYT hasn't yet called the last 2 house races and the last Senate race (Diggs), other outlets have, and Owen did end up defeating Gibson after all. No Democrat Lauren Boebert for you... sorry bro!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gislature.html

Looks like the final tally in Virginia is::

Senate: 21D - 19R (GOP actually flipped a seat)
House: 51D - 49R (Dems flipped two seats)

Youngkin won't get a first trimester abortion ban through, but he can still potentially get some conservative-ish legislation through if he can get one senator and one or two house members to make a deal.

***
It's a stretch to say that Republicans saved face in VA. They won every seat that Biden won by 9% or less, but they lost every seat Biden won by double digits. The obvious takeaway from that is Youngkin did everything he possibly could to hold onto the coalition that used to give Rs a governing majority in VA, but national trends (due to issues like abortion) are starting to takeover down ballot in ways they haven't before and basically foreclose any chance Rs have of winning VA.

The problem for Youngkin is that he's a victim of his own lofty expectations - the media and the average voter aren't going to drill into the data at a granular level and conclude Youngkin did everything he could to overcome a national brand that makes winning in VA impossible, the narrative is going to be that Youngkin failed to achieve his goal.

***

As for legislation, spurraider21 can confirm this, but Youngkin isn't going to be able to get any legislation through that he didn't already pass for two reasons.

First, for the last two years, Rs could make sure that Youngkin's agenda at least got a vote in each chamber and that's no longer the case. A Dem house of delegates speaker now controls which bills get a floor vote. I'm not sure what powers Shears has as senate president but that's unchanged.

Second and probably more important, the conservadems in the VA state leg who blocked a lot of what Ralph Northam wanted & who Youngkin could previously convince to support his legislation were either primaried out or retired this year (Morrissey and Chap Petersen being the two most notable examples). Even though the Dems have the same slim 21-19 senate margin they had in 2022, the 21 Dems are much more partisan firewall than what Youngkin previously dealt with.

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 02:31 PM

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 02:57 PM

:lmao "evil geniuses like Fauci"

Take a guess as to which president hired Fauci and made him a powerful government bureaucrat?

https://imageproxyb.ifunny.co/crop:x-20,resize:640x,quality:90x75/images/65997785a7d35500919001b492a00b87b214f2bd682bf6e629 251637c217af81_1.jpg
I'm not going to sit here and stand and pretend to support Reagan or GHWB.

I would have easily backed Reagan over Carter because Carter's economic and foreign policy was awful, but probably would have voted Dukakis/Perot if I was alive/old enough back then. Not a fan of increased taxes or spending but Reagan/GHWB's policy on free trade and pro mass immigration from shitty turd world countries definitely contributed to the decline of the Michigan economy and other upper Midwest states and rise in China's market share internationally and within the USA. Not to mention that Reagan was completely blind to how mass turd-world immigration has shaped white replacement across the USA as well as rigging elections in certain states like CA in favor of the Dems.

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 02:58 PM

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 03:00 PM

And yes, Fauci was just as evil back in the 1980s when he stood for the monopoly of the low-efficacy BigPharma treatment for HIV/AIDS and quashing any and all potential cures that were set to hit the market.

Fauci, like other evil geniueses like Bill Gates, have always been pro-population control criminal masterminds.

Both Reagan/Bush and Dems are at fault for not calling that out.

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 03:05 PM

Anyway, Pennsylvania is the state where I think results are truly devastating for Republicans in ways people don't realize.

Rs didn't win the state supreme court seat and they weren't expected to, fine, but they lost their majority on the State Superior Court and their majority on the Commonwealth Court is now 5-4 (both courts have been under GOP control for a long time).

The ancestrally Republican Philly suburbs are also starting to vote blue down ballot. Bucks County in particular is an area that's stayed stubbornly Republican in local races until yesterday, when Dems basically won everything they could.

1722123307124658188
I agree.

I've been saying this for a long time. Between that result, and Fetterman winning by 4.9% last year (not Shapiro winning, that was expected and a non-harbinger of anything, plus Mastriano was a nobody), PA is a worrisome state up and down the ticket for the GOP. I'm actually one of the least bullish conservative millennial pundits with regards to Trump and future GOP candidates winning PA at the presidential level and winning senate seats there.

Unlike with MI and WI, where the GOP has tons of room across the state to grow, tons of pink and purple counties to turn dark red. I've been saying this for awhile now... the GOP has minimal room to grow, probably in NE PA and the exurban Pittsburgh region. The GOP is already fully maxed out in the rural middle of PA. However, the Dems have equal or better room to grow in the ever-growing, multiracial, college-educated Philly collar suburbs. And it's not just abortion -- it's the other issues, too.

That, and Bob Casey potentially carrying Sleepy Scranton Joe, is why I came up with this 2024 map::

https://i.imgur.com/hvrBNQA.jpg

Of course, you can flip GA or AZ and Trump wins, but the point still comes across. Very much won't be surprised if PA votes to the left of MI and WI with trends.

Meanwhile, abortion now being fully legal and finalized in OH and MI should trend both states to the right IMO... the GOP has punted on this in MI and they obviously will have to in Ohio now too while focusing on the most important issues. Wisconsin is a wild card. Arizona will have the abortion ballot next year possibly but the AZ GOP should fight to have the ballot happen in say August and not on the same ticket at the presidential election which skews turnout.

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 03:21 PM

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 03:59 PM

Michigan is going to have expanded voting access in 2024 in ways it hasn't had before (namely, early in person voting). That means more vote banking in Detroit and higher turnout when Biden won MI in 2020 despite Detroit having only 50% turnout.

There's simply no logical reason to think that it trends right so drastically when the Michigan GOP's apparatus is broke and in complete shambles (namely because the state GOP chair is a transgender black wildebeest who literally threatened to murder her own family).

You can convince yourself that abortion won't matter anymore all you want but the fact it's now been legalized in Michigan won't make the fear mongering about a federal ban any less effective.
Wayne County margins in general will trend to the right, especially with the UAW and Israel/Hamas stuff, plus slightly increased black support for Trump. It won't zoom right, but the margins will be just enough, and outstate in what's anticipated to be the highest turnout election ever in 2024, the light red counties will darken and turn out in droves for Trump. Outer Grand Rapids metro flips back pink. They might be lukewarm or even positive on Whitmer (not too far off from a Beshear/Laura Kelly scenario) but they loathe Biden and yearn for the economic prosperity of Trump who built his whole campaign around being pro energy, pro American worker, tariffs, trade protectionism, etc.

While there's no denying Karamo is an incompetent Q-Tard 100% and lost by double digits in a winnable statewide race last year, she's going to get the axe sooner than later. However, the overall MI GOP is no more incompetent than, say, the GOP's in Kansas, Utah, Nebraska, Alaska. Doesn't mean those states won't go likely-to-safe red on the federal level.

Early in person voting in a state like Michigan also benefits conservative rural area voters because they won't be forced to go drive out from their rural ranch house through the gravelly country road and dodge deer all the way to the precinct on a cold, wet/snowy November Tuesday and stand in line when they can simply vote in person in October for Trump at their convenience or drop their paper mail ballot in the dropbox any favorable day they like weeks before election day.

As we've learned in, say, Virginia and Kentucky, statewide and federal elections are two completely separate animals. There's no denying Trump and the Trump effect flipped the state's federal partisan lean drastically to the right. Before Trump, the MI GOP governor candidate was winning by a lean margin (he should have lost, considering the Flint water crisis that year) in the same ticket the no-name Democrat US Senate candidate (in an open seat!!!) won by nearly 15%. That, of course, was 2014. It seems as if the roles are reversed 180 degrees due to Trump. Whitmer wins, not unexpectedly, on the same ballots as weed and abortion. But Trump outright wins in 2016 and comes very close in the covid-rigged year and John James in the Senate even closer even though he lost in 2018 which admittedly was a blue wave year.

I predict Trump to win MI by around 2%, potentially carrying a competent Senate candidate just across the finish line in the open Senate race. If it's someone like Peter Meijer (doubtful), Meijer likely loses because the base hates him because he torpedoed his political career with the impeachment vote.

The fear mongering in a state like Michigan for a federal ban is less emphatic if Trump, who's frequently touted the Clinton "safe, rare, legal" rhetoric on abortion since the 1990s, is the nominee. If it's an abortion hawk like say Desantis, Pence, or Scott, they will lose Michigan by Dubya margins.

CosmicCowboy

11-08-2023, 04:07 PM

The "fearmongering" about a federal ban is just that. Never in a million years would they get 60 senators to vote for it.

baseline bum

11-08-2023, 04:09 PM

The "fearmongering" about a federal ban is just that. Never in a million years would they get 60 senators to vote for it.

I remember when you used to say the same about Roe Vs Wade

CosmicCowboy

11-08-2023, 04:23 PM

I remember when you used to say the same about Roe Vs Wade

meh. You think they could get 60 votes?

Reck

11-08-2023, 04:27 PM

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 04:44 PM

meh. You think they could get 60 votes?

Realistically, you'd probably need 67. Something like this would be constitutional amendment territory.

Plus the same percentage in a House where we're likely to have a slim majority in 2025-26 and a slim minority in 2026-27. A House in which the Democrats are all united on most issues, including abortion, and there's a handful of libertarian-leaning GOP members that wouldn't vote for it, either.

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 04:47 PM

So the latest batch of polls are basically fear mongering for cable ratings. NYT came out with a batch of polls having Biden down on 5 of 6.

democrats are highly engaged in an off year elections. I think it’s about time the media give up the Biden is a drag talking point.
State elections =/= federal elections. How many times does this have to be re-iterated?

How do you think Andy Beshear won last night? How do you think Laura Kelly won last year? How do you think Gretchen Whitmer won by 10% last year, and PA's very own Josh Shapiro by damn nearly a safe margin (14.8%, on the very upper end of likely)?

Biden losing is legitimate and it's because Biden sucks and is incompetent, and Trump is more popular on policy despite Biden being slightly less disliked as a person. That's it and that's all.

However, Bob Casey Jr. is also excessively popular and my hot take is that he'll carry Scranton Joe just narrowly across the finish line in PA. It breaks with the majority of GOP pundits and current polling which has Trump winning PA by a lean margin, so give me credit for that.

Reck

11-08-2023, 04:50 PM

State elections =/= federal elections. How many times does this have to be re-iterated?

How do you think Andy Beshear won last night? How do you think Laura Kelly won last year? How do you think Gretchen Whitmer won by 10% last year, and PA's very own Josh Shapiro by damn nearly a safe margin (14.8%, on the very upper end of likely)?

Biden losing is legitimate and it's because Biden sucks and is incompetent, and Trump is more popular on policy despite Biden being slightly less disliked as a person. That's it and that's all.

However, Bob Casey Jr. is also excessively popular and my hot take is that he'll carry Scranton Joe just narrowly across the finish line in PA. It breaks with the majority of GOP pundits and current polling which has Trump winning PA by a lean margin, so give me credit for that.

Shit take per par.

spurraider21

11-08-2023, 04:56 PM

:lmao the backpedal

1722076225835774022

The "fearmongering" about a federal ban is just that. Never in a million years would they get 60 senators to vote for it.
keep it coming

this is from the national republican party platform

https://i.gyazo.com/f49e4e90120e463b58ca0b2d7b8b81d8.png

https://i.gyazo.com/843de897ce02441cd1abd60a57c48bf9.png

spurraider21

11-08-2023, 05:00 PM

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 05:35 PM

Shit take per par.

hillary stan reck folds to a real argument per par

I enjoy these intense intellectual conversations with will hunting because he's a real intellectual. aside from not being a girl and my michigan girlfriend, he reminds me a lot of marissa with his politics and takes on race/social issues, as well as his intellectualism. But 90% of the board liberals are as dumb or dumber than every ST conservative not named ducks.

i love how the defense of bad policy is "its not like republicans are ever going to win enough elections to implement those policies, so why are people so scared of electing any republicans?"

its nonsensical
Not all Republicans are anti-right to choose, smartass.

ElNono

11-08-2023, 06:37 PM

ElNono

11-08-2023, 07:06 PM

The "fearmongering" about a federal ban is just that. Never in a million years would they get 60 senators to vote for it.

What makes you think it needs to happen via Congress? The Fifth circuit doesn't think so.

ElNono

11-08-2023, 07:10 PM

i love how the defense of bad policy is "its not like republicans are ever going to win enough elections to implement those policies, so why are people so scared of electing any republicans?"

its nonsensical

It's actually pretty revealing of the mental gymnastics they have to go through in order to still vote for the bad policies.

baseline bum

11-08-2023, 07:17 PM

Not all Republicans are anti-right to choose, smartass.

You voted for it, take some responsibility

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 07:20 PM

meh. You think they could get 60 votes?
I think the next party to win a governing trifecta is going to gut the filibuster so the 60 votes question doesn’t really matter.

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 07:21 PM

What makes you think it needs to happen via Congress? The Fifth circuit doesn't think so.
This too. The 5th circuit is currently trying to outlaw abortion pills by judicial fiat, and SCOTUS hasn’t really been proactive in putting an end to it.

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 07:27 PM

At least for me no matter how much I disagree with the Dems on immigration and other stuff, I can’t consider voting for republicans in federal elections when they’re only willing to confirm federalist society hacks on the court.

The GOP in most cases is also just as bad as the Dems are on things where I think Biden has failed. I think the Dems should have been a lot more proactive in ramping the deficit down, but god knows the GOP is even worse when it comes to using the gubbamint credit card to pay for their stupid policies.

Will Hunting

11-08-2023, 07:54 PM

So the latest batch of polls are basically fear mongering for cable ratings. NYT came out with a batch of polls having Biden down on 5 of 6.

democrats are highly engaged in an off year elections. I think it’s about time the media give up the Biden is a drag talking point.
I wasn’t speaking as much about presidential elections when rural rube turnout will be much higher and make PA much closer statewide.

i was more talking about how fast Rs are losing voters in the Philly burbs and why that’s bad for them. For starters, there state senate majority is reliant on a couple senators from the Philly collar counties who still do well with ancestral Rs, but they might be toast in the next few cycles of school board seats in places like Bucks County are going blue.

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 11:11 PM

I wasn’t speaking as much about presidential elections when rural rube turnout will be much higher and make PA much closer statewide.

i was more talking about how fast Rs are losing voters in the Philly burbs and why that’s bad for them. For starters, there state senate majority is reliant on a couple senators from the Philly collar counties who still do well with ancestral Rs, but they might be toast in the next few cycles of school board seats in places like Bucks County are going blue.
All the Bucks county PA conservatives moved to Sarasota, FL in 2020/2021. Not even joking. Literally 27 members of my father's side of the family including my two older half brothers did. Only my father still lives there, and he voted for Biden & Fetterman. His brain functions a lot like those two, fyi. Three peas in a pod. He wasn't in my life, he's a pothead and I don't consider him family and neither do my half brothers. He had 14 sons with 11 women.

My first cousin on my father's side is a carpetbagger from PA and he's also the FL GOP chair... dox me.

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 11:16 PM

You voted for it, take some responsibility
I vote for deporting illegals, economic supremacy, energy independence, fighting inflation and inflationary economic policy... cheap gas, America First trade policy, protecting the first and second amendment, a limited fourth branch of government, and controlling and punishing violent crime. And, to an extent, defeating the trans/queer counterculture in-your-face movement, which I guess is technically one of the few less libertarian positions of mine, but it jives with populism at least.

Abortion is far down there on the list for me in terms of the issues.

baseline bum

11-08-2023, 11:18 PM

I vote for deporting illegals, economic supremacy, energy independence, fighting inflation and inflationary economic policy... cheap gas, America First trade policy, protecting the first and second amendment, a limited fourth branch of government, and controlling and punishing violent crime. And, to an extent, defeating the trans/queer counterculture in-your-face movement, which I guess is technically one of the few less libertarian positions of mine, but it jives with populism at least.

Abortion is far down there on the list for me in terms of the issues.

Nevertheless you voted for it

UNT Eagles 2016

11-08-2023, 11:23 PM

Nevertheless you voted for it

I forgot to mention covid policy and the draconian mandates that I'll literally never forgive most Dem leaders and a few RINOs for even if they offered me a million bucks to eat a Sweet Tart. Oh, and eco-fascism:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu3gd2FulwY

This gave me nightmares for years in high school that I'll never forget.

Ef-man

11-08-2023, 11:29 PM

Nevertheless you voted for it

Why am I not surprised that his dad abandoned him.

Thread

11-09-2023, 02:10 AM

FOX is yacking about some R beating a New York stalwart D, and causing a "political earthquake."

What is it?

ElNono

11-09-2023, 03:36 AM

I forgot to mention covid policy and the draconian mandates that I'll literally never forgive most Dem leaders and a few RINOs for even if they offered me a million bucks to eat a Sweet Tart.

That was actually sound policy. You could argue some of the details with the monday newspaper in your hands, but on the overall it was the right call.

Thread

11-09-2023, 10:15 AM

FOX is yacking about some R beating a New York stalwart D, and causing a "political earthquake."

What is it?

MultiTroll

11-09-2023, 10:43 AM

Thread

11-09-2023, 11:05 AM

MSNBC panel giggles at montage of Republicans who lost elections after talking tough (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/msnbc-panel-giggles-at-montage-of-republicans-who-lost-elections-after-talking-tough/ar-AA1jClIg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=19527a3ea24f4638b6f71f2d8a3dd130&ei=12)

Their finest moment, Mult?...that night when Trump made President. They'll never be over it. Ever. It's their religion.

MultiTroll

11-09-2023, 11:09 AM

Their finest moment, Mult?...that night when Trump made President. They'll never be over it. Ever. It's their religion.
No I'd say Joe kicking the Grifters ass was 100Xs finer. :lmao

Thread

11-09-2023, 11:26 AM

No I'd say Joe kicking the Grifters ass was 100Xs finer. :lmao

You've nary other choice. Nary.

Winehole23

11-09-2023, 11:49 AM

What seems to have been generally true yesterday (book bans, trans mania and academic blacklists are unpopular) may have more explanatory than predictive value for next year, or none at all.

General elections are different in both quality and quantity, but this probably isn't good news for Republicans with 2024 and Trump's various felony trials coming up so quickly.

It could be really bad news for everybody if there's a new new war or a political assassination.

1722644756260417788

Spurs Homer

11-09-2023, 12:05 PM

Reck

11-09-2023, 12:58 PM

FOX is yacking about some R beating a New York stalwart D, and causing a "political earthquake."

What is it?

:lol

Some republican guy won the mayor race of some county in NY. We’re letting you play Thready. New York as a whole is safe though.

Thread

11-09-2023, 01:34 PM

:lol

Some republican guy won the mayor race of some county in NY. We’re letting you play Thready. New York as a whole is safe though.

Please. They've been telling the Sysop on me persistently since my return begging him to toss my ass out.

I'm like "Rocky"---

"What is keeping him up, Bill."

"I don't know."

Thread

11-09-2023, 01:40 PM

...

CosmicCowboy

11-09-2023, 01:43 PM

those polls were bought and paid for by rt wing donors and trump friendly pacs

it sucks that all media -left/rt- are taking the bait tho’

The New York Times??? :lol

Reck

11-09-2023, 02:13 PM

The New York Times??? :lol

Over sampling rural areas where republicans do well of course.

someone looked into the methodology of these polls and found that 43% of the 18-29 year old didn’t vote in the 2020 election. 26% of the 30-44 age group didn’t vote, 20% 45-64 age group didn’t vote and lastly that 33% of the sample was rural.

if any of that is true, then this might as well be fake. Lol

Also not to mention polls a year out are dumb.

Spurs Homer

11-09-2023, 02:48 PM

The New York Times??? :lol

do a little digging….

https://newrepublic.com/post/175387/wsj-poll-showing-trump-biden-evenly-matched-trump-helped-pay

Spurs Homer

11-09-2023, 02:50 PM

Over sampling rural areas where republicans do well of course.

someone looked into the methodology of these polls and found that 43% of the 18-29 year old didn’t vote in the 2020 election. 26% of the 30-44 age group didn’t vote, 20% 45-64 age group didn’t vote and lastly that 33% of the sample was rural.

if any of that is true, then this might as well be fake. Lol

Also not to mention polls a year out are dumb.

if he paid the wsj …anyone doubt he is paying for others?

oh yeah cosmic kuntby does lol

Spurs Homer

11-09-2023, 02:51 PM

The New York Times??? :lol

and another…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/17/michael-cohen-says-he-tried-to-rig-online-polls-at-trumps-direction.html

Splits

11-09-2023, 05:04 PM

meh. You think they could get 60 votes?

All they need is 50 plus POTUS. No doubt they will kill the filibuster for it.

Thread

11-09-2023, 05:45 PM

All they need is 50 plus POTUS. No doubt they will kill the filibuster for it.

Afternoon, Splits.

Signed,

- Your Creator

UNT Eagles 2016

11-09-2023, 06:09 PM

That was actually sound policy. You could argue some of the details with the monday newspaper in your hands, but on the overall it was the right call.

Hell no, it took away over a prime year and a half of my life (mid-upper 20s), took away my best girlfriend/relationship, and potentially fucked me over for another 15 years from this month

ElNono

11-10-2023, 04:07 AM

Ef-man

11-10-2023, 12:10 PM

So, nothing was lost, tbh...

But it did spare the girl the serious grief of having to put up with prime year(s) MM, so there is that.

Cry Havoc

11-10-2023, 01:31 PM

So, nothing was lost, tbh...

:lol imagine wanting to put millions more people at risk so your social life won't be mildly hampered. :lol

ElNono

11-10-2023, 02:29 PM

:lol imagine wanting to put millions more people at risk so your social life won't be mildly hampered. :lol

I'll say that if putting a mask over his face caused him to shut up for an additional 10 mins, it was all well worth it, tbh

Cry Havoc

11-10-2023, 05:03 PM

I'll say that if putting a mask over his face caused him to shut up for an additional 10 mins, it was all well worth it, tbh

Remember: Us lefties are the snowflakes, but the entire conservative movement was defeated by a piece of paper over their face and Taylor Swift. :lol

Will Hunting

11-10-2023, 05:17 PM

Hell no, it took away over a prime year and a half of my life (mid-upper 20s), took away my best girlfriend/relationship, and potentially fucked me over for another 15 years from this month
Sounds like you have a real grievance to pick with the president in early 2020 who ignored COVID until it was way too late and told the entire country to lock down while his administration figured out how the virus actually worked.

Cry Havoc

11-10-2023, 05:21 PM

The New York Times??? :lol

I don't think the polls are necessarily set up to be tilted against Democrats, but generally their method of surveys for likely voters trends much older and more conservative, and at this point I'm not sure they can accurately weight for it.

If anything, the last few elections have demonstrated how difficult it is to discern anything concrete from polls, esp this far out.

Sounds like you have a real grievance to pick with the president in early 2020 who ignored COVID until it was way too late and told the entire country to lock down while his administration figured out how the virus actually worked.

Yeah, Obama really botched that first year of COVID. :lol

Cry Havoc

11-10-2023, 05:25 PM

https://www.businessinsider.com/far-right-blaming-taylor-swift-gop-election-losses-2023-11

Far-right hosts are blaming the GOP's big election losses on Taylor Swift

:lol :lol :lol Truly the party of alphas

UNT Eagles 2016

11-10-2023, 06:36 PM

Sounds like you have a real grievance to pick with the president in early 2020 who ignored COVID until it was way too late and told the entire country to lock down while his administration figured out how the virus actually worked.

Trump didn't handle spring 2020 well, but it was a historically unfair curveball in an election year.

Vetoing the stimulus would have been the alpha move, but there probably would have been a 67% or greater override from congress.

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11-10-2023, 06:50 PM

ChumpDumper

11-10-2023, 08:42 PM

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11-10-2023, 10:36 PM

Yeah, killing more people would've won him the election.:lol

Well, you people were always trying to kill him hand over fist.

Will Hunting

11-10-2023, 10:49 PM

Trump didn't handle spring 2020 well, but it was a historically unfair curveball in an election year.

Vetoing the stimulus would have been the alpha move, but there probably would have been a 67% or greater override from congress.
Every other industrialized world leader up for re-election in 2020 won. People are very lenient with the incumbent during national tragedy unless they’re absolutely incompetent (which Trump was).

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11-11-2023, 12:00 AM

Every other industrialized world leader up for re-election in 2020 won. People are very lenient with the incumbent during national tragedy unless they’re absolutely incompetent (which Trump was).

He managed to put Hillary down like a sick dog and made President. Only 44 others have done it across 4-FOUR-4 centuries.

But, that's why we're here, Will.