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scott
01-15-2024, 10:23 PM
Note: I originally wrote this right before the forum went down. Thankfully I saved it in Notepad first, because I spent more time on it than I really wanted to :lol. Anyway, here it is.

I'm starting this thread with one particular purpose in mind - to reset the thinking that seems prevalent on this message board about timelines, specifically Wemby's timeline and when we can expect the Spurs to start contending.


This stems from many of the comments in the Trade Ideas thread about "Player X does not fit the timeline" - typically this line of thinking is attached to the philosophy that the Spurs should simply sit back, make draft picks, and build this team organically. IMO, that is a huge mistake, for one very simple reason:


The Victor Wembanyama Timeline Has Already Begun. To put an even finer point on it, I'd argue a high-performing veteran in his late 20's (Murray, Bridges, whatever other name you want to throw out there) is very much more on Wemby's timeline than some 19-year old who will need 3 seasons to develop.


Yes, Victor will continue to get better, pretty much everyone agrees on this. But we need not wait for Wemby to evolve into his peak form before declaring the competitive window open. Wemby's impact on the game is already there.


This is not to be confused with a "Spurs should go all in for Player X" thread - that is not what is being suggested here. But whether via in-season trade or via moves this summer, the Spurs should plan on approaching next season with the playoffs in mind, not another year of "seeing what we have".


The Spurs have more draft assets than they are capable of actually using on players, and it is important to keep that in mind. The Spurs (should have) acquired these assets with the mindset of eventually moving them, rather than using them on picks who would ultimately be rostered. So remember that as ideas are discussed. We must move some of this draft capital - we can't simply horde it. With that said, no - we should blow the entire war chest on ill gotten moves. No one is suggesting such a thing. But it is time to dispense with this notion that a 27-year old is not on the Wemby timeline.


Also, a key reminder, that the Spurs roster had 4 distinct evolutions in Duncan's career, with Duncan a key contributor to the first 3 (all of whom won at least one championship).


Era 1: The Emergence (1997-2002)


Key Contributors (NBA experience differential vs Duncan in Parenthesis): David Robinson (+8), Sean Elliott (+8), Avery Johnson (+9), Mario Elie (+7), Jaren Jackson (+7), Antonio Daniels (0), Malik Rose (+1), Danny Ferry (+7), Terry Porter (+12), Steve Kerr (+9)


Era 2: Domination (2003-2010)

Key Contributors: Tony Parker (-4), Manu Ginobili (-5), Bruce Bowen (+1), Steven Jackson (-3), Malik Rose (+1), Steve Smith (+6), Kevin Willis (+12), Robert Horry (+5), Rasho Nesterovich (-1), Hedo Turkoglu (-3), Brent Barry (+2), Nazr Mohammed (-1), Fabs Oberto (-8), Michael Finley (+2), Matt Bonner (-7), George Hill (-11), Dejuan Blair (-12), Richard Jefferson (-4)


Era 3: The Beautiful Game (2010-2015)


Key Contributors: Tony Parker (-4), Manu Ginobili (-5), Matt Bonner (-7), Danny Green (-12), Gary Neal (-13), Tiago Splitter (-13), Boris Diaw (-6), Kawhi Leonard (-14), Patty Mills (-12), Marco Belinelli (-10)


Era 4: The Transition (2016)


Key Contributors: Tony Parker (-4), Manu Ginobili (-5), Kawhi Leonard (-14), Lamarcus Aldridge (-9), Kyle Anders (-17), Matt Bonner (-7), Danny Green (-12), Patty Mills (-12), Jonathan Simmons (-18)


Note, that Era 2 (starting in Duncan's 7th season) is when the majority of the MAIN contributors were close to Duncan's age/experience or younger. Right now we are in Era 1 of Wemby. We need not wait until Era 2 to be a competitive basketball team. We can build a good team with capable vets while still allowing us to have picks to load up in advance for Era 2. Especially in a time when most draft picks are not ready for the NBA, this is the smart play.

BacktoBasics
01-15-2024, 10:28 PM
The Victor Wembanyama Timeline Has Already Begun. To put an even finer point on it, I'd argue a high-performing veteran in his late 20's (Murray, Bridges, whatever other name you want to throw out there) is very much more on Wemby's timeline than some 19-year old who will need 3 seasons to develop.

I think your last sentence is especially relevant to the PG position. I’m all for drafting a future PG but even a really good one would need a couple years to develop into a real floor leader.

The timeline does appear to be busted and Wemby has looked as good as advertised. A vet pg would be a good move regardless of what you draft.

I know we want to see moves now and I’m fine with that but I know this team is gonna get churned in the offseason. I expect some decent movement in the offseason.

Mr. Body
01-15-2024, 10:49 PM
Not really sure what the options are for a veteran PG. Michael Conley? He becomes a free agent and the Wolves will be above $190 million with him and Kyle Anderson coming off the books. They're a bit in cap hell. But he'd probably want to stay as they're close to competing.

Kyle Lowry is a FA, too, but probably the same story - wants to compete.

Chris Paul could probably be acquired from the Warriors but not sure I want a grumpy Paul.

K...
01-15-2024, 11:03 PM
for better or worse tre jones is a veteran PG and while he low key is not an NBA player he could be serviceable in the near term depending on how long you need your rookie to get up to speed. I prefer jones to corpses like Westbrook and Crhis paul.

The first real free agent will be the catalyst for the next free agent and or a major trade. i think everyone knows wemby is for real but want to avoid coming in too early.

onechance87
01-15-2024, 11:16 PM
for better or worse tre jones is a veteran PG and while he low key is not an NBA player he could be serviceable in the near term depending on how long you need your rookie to get up to speed. I prefer jones to corpses like Westbrook and Crhis paul.

The first real free agent will be the catalyst for the next free agent and or a major trade. i think everyone knows wemby is for real but want to avoid coming in too early.

we need a real pg who can shoot....We will be so much better with that upgrade alone

spurraider21
01-15-2024, 11:18 PM
era 1 works because the spurs were a Duncan away from being legit contenders

Can’t say the same about wemby and these spurs

scott
01-15-2024, 11:19 PM
I like Conley and think he would be a decent two-year stop gap (assuming homie even wants to play that long), but I don’t know if we fit HIS timeline.

I don’t think free agency is where we are going to find a starting PG, or anything more than role players (which we also need). The main “core” will need to come from the draft or trades, but the draft means it will be years before those seeds turn into flowers. Vassell, despite his recent struggles, has shown he is good enough to keep rolling with (so there is one draft piece). Sochan is showing a lot of progress now that he isn’t playing PG, and even the last few games he’s starting to make some good, smart passes to Wemby. IMO, he is shown enough to stick with for now. So there is another piece (gotten through the draft) that you can roll with.

We’re going to have to make some trades (and again, doesn’t have to be in the next month… can be this summer).

DAF86
01-15-2024, 11:21 PM
I have always been on this boat, that's why I wanted to get into the Chris Paul trade. I wouldn't give up any first round capital, though, unless it is for a true good offensive PG: a Darius Garland type player is the least I would consider giving up a first for. Anything less and I would prefer to take my chances in the draft or get a player in free agency without overpaying.

scott
01-15-2024, 11:21 PM
era 1 works because the spurs were a Duncan away from being legit contenders

Can’t say the same about wemby and these spurs

Of course, but that is the FO’s job - to construct a roster around Wemby. The Duncan Spurs were a fluke of circumstances, a consistent playoff team (and not far removed from the WCF) who had a rash of injuries to land a generational prospect. The Spurs had to take a different route to land Wemby, but once they secured him it is now time to build the roster quickly, but without giving up the farm.

scott
01-15-2024, 11:24 PM
I have always been on this boat, that's why I wanted to get into the Chris Paul trade. I wouldn't give up any first round capital, though, unless it is for a true good offensive PG: a Darius Garland type player is the least I would consider giving up a first for. Anything less and I would prefer to take my chances in the draft or get a player in free agency without overpaying.

For sure. We’re going to have to give up some of those FRP’s eventually anyway, but of course we shouldn’t just piss them away. It’s why I like a deal like potentially bringing Dejounte back. We can debate whether that is the right player, but it’s generally the right move. 27-year old locked up on a good contract is on the right timeline is my main point.

JeffDuncan
01-15-2024, 11:28 PM
Remember the old cartoon of two vultures perched on a tree in the desert, and one says to me other, “Patience, my ass. I’m going to kill something.”

Victor will get better as time goes by, sure. But he’s already good enough to build around, right now.

Just to cherry pick one stat, he has 37 blocks over his last ten games, and that’s with a lot of opponents shying away from him. Everybody who’s watched him has seen him do the most amazing things.

I don’t know what the Spurs can do, or will do, but there’s no need to wait.

baseline bum
01-15-2024, 11:30 PM
I have always been on this boat, that's why I wanted to get into the Chris Paul trade. I wouldn't give up any first round capital, though, unless it is for a true good offensive PG: a Darius Garland type player is the least I would consider giving up a first for. Anything less and I would prefer to take my chances in the draft or get a player in free agency without overpaying.

Every PG prospect outside Dillingham looks really shaky though, and if it stays that way it wouldn't surprise me to see Dillingham off the board by the time the Spurs pick considering there will be at least a 48% chance they fall out of the top 4.

baseline bum
01-15-2024, 11:36 PM
Biggest downside I see with a Dejounte trade though is you probably can't draft Dillingham or Topic without pissing him off while it would be fine if they're still starting Tre or bring in someone like Conley, Paul, Lowry, etc. Of course the upside is you could go after a forward where there is probably more talent in this draft if you have Dejounte with Tre backing him up as your PG rotation.

TD 21
01-16-2024, 12:05 AM
Basically a longform version of what I've been saying. :tu



Every PG prospect outside Dillingham looks really shaky though, and if it stays that way it wouldn't surprise me to see Dillingham off the board by the time the Spurs pick considering there will be at least a 48% chance they fall out of the top 4.

If the Spurs interest in Murray is more than "exploratory", it could be an inkling that they're more focused on big wings/forwards than small/point guards in the draft.

Allan Rowe vs Wade
01-16-2024, 12:20 AM
Yep. Let's get 1 more good draft position then back to winning

scott
01-16-2024, 12:27 AM
Biggest downside I see with a Dejounte trade though is you probably can't draft Dillingham or Topic without pissing him off while it would be fine if they're still starting Tre or bring in someone like Conley, Paul, Lowry, etc. Of course the upside is you could go after a forward where there is probably more talent in this draft if you have Dejounte with Tre backing him up as your PG rotation.

I'd be curious at how Dejounte feels about his time at the 2 with Atlanta. I don't think it would be too hard to sell him on a 3-man guard rotation between himself, Dev, and a developmental PG. By the time the rookie is ready, DJ may be better suited at sliding over the 2 anyway? Just a thought, though I haven't put too much thought into it.

Dejounte
01-16-2024, 12:30 AM
You All Really Underestimate How Much A Man Puts Aside His Ego As He Grows Older And Goes Through Life Experiences, Especially A Guy Like Murray Who Now Has Two Kids.

Chinook
01-16-2024, 01:05 AM
Might seem weird but "Let's just copy Tim Duncan's career" isn't a more sustainable path for a team to take around an NBA superstar than "Let's just copy Tom Brady's career" is for an NFL team to take around a QB. At best Brock Purdy is the closet thing we've seen in terms of immediate unheralded excellence bolstering a team with a championship core. Every other team that's won a Lombardi has had to do it a different way. The 99 Spurs were closer to the 2022-2023 Heat than to that version of the Spurs. To build that kind of core takes time and shouldn't be hand-waved as "what a good GM is supposed to do". The best recent analog I can think of for Wemby winning a title in "era 1" would be Wade in 2006. That would require the Spurs to do something like trading for Kawhi, Durant or Curry and making the right moves around them in terms of role-players. I don't see a realistic trade out there that can accomplish that. MAYBE if the Warriors completely collapse and they decide to cash out, the Spurs can win the bidding war to get him while having enough to put a team around them. But I assume he's entrenched, just like Butler, Durant and Leonard are.

For most teams, "era 2" is the best they can hope for to begin their title. That's where Denver and Milwaukee won their titles. You need years of chemistry and growth. That's why there are gaps in between these titles. Tim had to grow into the guy who could lead "era 2", and Parker and Manu had to age into "era 3" before finally senescing in "era 4". Yes, folks should realize that the Spurs aren't likely going to have running mates with Victor for more than a decade. It's okay to bring in older players, and there will always be a need to draft well and hope to pick up more high impact guys on rookie contracts. But the way that should be used is that there can be moves that aren't made with trying to win a title really in mind. Getting the right guy -- even for a year or two -- could be huge for building the foundation in the locker room for a championship core to form. Think Paul Millsap with the Nuggets or Jason Terry with the Bucks.

Who could fit that box? Klay Thompson maybe? He's probably not going to stay with the Warriors, and the team needs consistent shooting. Thompson has looked cooked at times and in general didn't look like his best self since long before his injury. Add in his contract expectations and the fact that he plays the same position as the team's best hope for an organic running mate, and he doesn't seem like the best fit. Maybe Wiggins as a trade target if the Warriors make a win-now move and have to use Andrew's contract as ballast? He'd at least fit the positional needs. But even more than Thompson, making that move would feel more like "proximity to greatness" rather than getting a legit vet pace-setter. It's too bad Draymond is crazy, but he checks a lot of boxes when it comes to his intelligence, competitiveness and spirit. But dude's got problems and can't even be trusted to direct his issues toward the opposing team. I know that's three Warriors, but they've won so many of the recent titles, that there aren't a ton of proven championship-level culture-setters to pick from. We're feeling the aftershocks of the all those Warriors/Cavs Finals.

In terms of whether the Spurs should look more to the draft or free agency this summer, I look at it more as a situation of "Yes, and" rather than "either/or". The team should absolutely draft a PG, and that PG needs to be quick and able to penetrate. That's the single box the team absolutely needs and is the reason why Quickley and Murray are mostly just wasting time in my mind. The team doesn't need this PG to run the offense. They need him to bend the defense. A guy who can get into the paint is going to create opportunities for the easy reps that help build the experience people are worried about. That's why Collier really hasn't lose esteem in my book. For all the talk about needing a PG who can shoot, the Spurs could only wish the biggest issue in their offense is that too many people are choosing to go to the rim rather than hoist up threes. Yes, you want a guy who can do both, and whether the coaching believe the guy can learn to shoot is a reasonable requirement. But the Spurs would be much better in terms of shooting if they had legit vertical spacing to get guys in-rhythm attempts and create conflicts in the defense.

The vet they need is really more of a wing or forward who can create and close. Think Rudy Gay after he recovered from his injury. So what are we looking at there? Maybe Harris or Oubre? Maybe an old hand like DeRozan coming back or making a deal for Wiggins, as I said? It's not going to be easy to find that vet, no matter what criteria one uses.

Gibbz
01-16-2024, 01:22 AM
I ain't reading all 'at, but we need to be competing come the '26-'27 season if we want to do Vic right and make him a lifer.

Dejounte
01-16-2024, 01:32 AM
The Foundation Was Supposedly Forming Even Before The Spurs Drafted Wemby, That Was The Whole Reason DeMar Was Here And Guys Like Mills And Gay Lasted Longer As Spurs Than They Should Have Because They Were Here To Bridge The Gap And Make A Lasting Impression To The Next Generation Of Guys Like Murray, White, Lonnie, Keldon, And So Forth. Can You Seriously Say With A Straight Face That These Moves Have Become Fruitful And Are Showing Its Impact Today?

I Think It’s Ridiculous To Think You Can’t Do Both Of “Getting The Right Guy To Build The Locker Room” And “Compete To Win”.

I Would Hate To Be A Player On That Hypothetical Roster Of Has-Beens Giving Comfort To Younger Players Because Of The Losses Being Accrued Since The Focus Is To Get Nice Guys In The Locker Room. What The Actual Fuck?

Dejounte
01-16-2024, 01:35 AM
I Wonder If Anyone On The Team Right Now Is Remembering DeRozan’s Wise Words In The Locker Room As They’re Mounting Up These Losses. “Don’t Worry, Kid. Everything Is Going To Be Alright” - DeMar, March 22nd 2019. Boom! Everything Is All Better. Foundation Built, Baby.

Mr. Body
01-16-2024, 01:44 AM
Get some vet help. Doesn't need to be a PG, but that could work. More, for me, we need guys who can steady the ship and help end runs and get scores in end games and ends of quartes.

I also don't think this will be easy to do. And the team will be jammed with developing players, so decisions will need to be made.

I believe Devin and Keldon have the loser stink on them from tanking and sucking. It's not really their fault. It'll take a while to scrape off, but they can do it. Requires confidence and belief.

If the Spurs have a good draft, this will be a big boost. They need another playmaker beside Tre, shooting, and one or two perimeter stoppers. And experience. But the experience probably has to come from within, kind of like with OKC. They haven't really received much help from veterans, they just kept adding really good players while scoring on a MVP-type talent. And now here they are.

scott
01-16-2024, 01:50 AM
Might seem weird but "Let's just copy Tim Duncan's career" isn't a more sustainable path for a team to take around an NBA superstar than "Let's just copy Tom Brady's career" is for an NFL team to take around a QB. At best Brock Purdy is the closet thing we've seen in terms of immediate unheralded excellence bolstering a team with a championship core. Every other team that's won a Lombardi has had to do it a different way. The 99 Spurs were closer to the 2022-2023 Heat than to that version of the Spurs. To build that kind of core takes time and shouldn't be hand-waved as "what a good GM is supposed to do". The best recent analog I can think of for Wemby winning a title in "era 1" would be Wade in 2006. That would require the Spurs to do something like trading for Kawhi, Durant or Curry and making the right moves around them in terms of role-players. I don't see a realistic trade out there that can accomplish that. MAYBE if the Warriors completely collapse and they decide to cash out, the Spurs can win the bidding war to get him while having enough to put a team around them. But I assume he's entrenched, just like Butler, Durant and Leonard are.

You never cease to amaze me at your ability to draft a lengthy argument against a point no one is trying to make. The comparison to Duncan's career is not say we should copy it, but rather an illustration of what should otherwise be obvious: the supporting cast around superstars who stick with one club goes through numerous evolutions. We need to give up this notion that we should only be building this roster with having a career-long running mate for Wemby in mind. Kobe and Wade are other great examples of this - superstars who won titles in multiple eras of their careers because the rosters around them evolved and adapted.

Dejounte
01-16-2024, 02:10 AM
Get some vet help. Doesn't need to be a PG, but that could work. More, for me, we need guys who can steady the ship and help end runs and get scores in end games and ends of quartes.

I also don't think this will be easy to do. And the team will be jammed with developing players, so decisions will need to be made.

I believe Devin and Keldon have the loser stink on them from tanking and sucking. It's not really their fault. It'll take a while to scrape off, but they can do it. Requires confidence and belief.

If the Spurs have a good draft, this will be a big boost. They need another playmaker beside Tre, shooting, and one or two perimeter stoppers. And experience. But the experience probably has to come from within, kind of like with OKC. They haven't really received much help from veterans, they just kept adding really good players while scoring on a MVP-type talent. And now here they are.

The Thing With The Thunder And Teams Like The Thunder Is That What They Look Like Now And Their Upward Trajectory These Past Couple Seasons Isn’t Guaranteed To Last. One Can Look Towards The Grizzlies Of Yesteryear And Recall That They Were A Team Whose Recipe Was A Good One To Follow. The Suns, The Celtics, And Some More Were Also Teams Who People Thought Should Be Modeled After. Things Change Fast In The NBA. Today’s Promising Team Might Be Tomorrow’s Wreck Because Maybe One Or Two Players From The Core Might Ask For Money The Team Can’t Afford, And Suddenly Everything’s Changed. This Is Why Having Some Sort Of Weird Decade-Long Plan Is Pointless. The Name Of The Game Is Adaptation. Maintain Enough Flexibility To Pivot As The Situation Demands It. It’s What Brian Wright Has Also Said In One Of The Interviews:


https://youtu.be/PGuktSrhwGQ?feature=shared

Dejounte
01-16-2024, 02:36 AM
Starts At 9:20…

”…Optionality Is The Way We’ve Discussed It. You Want To Have The Ability To At A Moment’s Notice To Pivot…” He Says A Lot More After That But Too Much Energy For Me To Type Up With This Writing Style…

Chinook
01-16-2024, 09:10 AM
You never cease to amaze me at your ability to draft a lengthy argument against a point no one is trying to make. The comparison to Duncan's career is not say we should copy it, but rather an illustration of what should otherwise be obvious: the supporting cast around superstars who stick with one club goes through numerous evolutions. We need to give up this notion that we should only be building this roster with having a career-long running mate for Wemby in mind. Kobe and Wade are other great examples of this - superstars who won titles in multiple eras of their careers because the rosters around them evolved and adapted.

What never ceases to amaze me is how you take the first sentence of a post and think that by saying "this isn't directly addressing my specific thesis", that you're actually refuting the post. The entire post talks about how "era 1" isn't really a thing and so the team is more likely to success building toward "era 2". It's a mistake on your part if you believe that has to mean the Spurs are looking for career-long running mates to Wemby. They have the high picks now and should use them hoping to find high impact players -- ideally star-caliber players to pair with Wemby because that's just more sustainable long-term than trading a bunch of assets for a late-career star who's already making DPE-level money. And no, don't go "No one's arguing they should get a late-career star". I don't care if you don't think it's the point you're making. It's the point I'M making, because that's what it would take for the Spurs to truly accelerate their timeline, not third-measures like Murray or Quickley.

That the team would need to build multiple supporting casts around Wemby is why they shouldn't be short-sighted about their draft picks. Those picks are how you build a sustainable roster, because you won't be able to afford to keep that vet supporting cast around. The good news is that they have plenty of additional picks they can use to chase that vet when the time is right. But messing up that time trying to be impatient because of irrational fears of Wemby forcing his way out on his rookie deal is basically the key to turning Kawhi trauma into Wemby trauma. It's how Paul trauma becomes Davis trauma becomes Zion trauma. Building takes time, and that time is real time, not "Press A to simulate the rest of the season" time. Yes, the Spurs can draft the 19-year-old, sign the 28-year-old and trade for the 34-year-old in the same off-season. But they can't piss away that first part, nor can they ignore than their 20-year-old foundational piece is still 20-years-old and isn't at the point where he's going to win a seven-game series against a good team that can gameplan against him, let alone four of them.

mo7888
01-16-2024, 09:29 AM
Excellent thread OP. I think you're on to something myself. I'm not even looking at it as the Wemby timeline, even though there's no timeline without him, as much as I'm looking at it as the Spurs timeline. I agree that Wemby is ready now, and to that end, a couple of good high-end late 20 year olds would dramatically improve the chance to compete next season. With all the draft assets we have there also an argument for kicking a couple of them a few years down the road for the 2nd timeline or window, if you will. This might be able to happen by trading several near term seconds for a future first in 2029 for example. I'm not saying that's out there but we should explore it with teams at the bottom of the draft or out of the draft completely.

The bottom line is that we should make moves no later than this summer (and even now if there's something there). Those moves should be directed towards giving Wemby talent that let's us take him wherever he can take us next season, while also having one eye towards a secondary window a few years from now.

TheChillFactor
01-16-2024, 09:59 AM
They have spent the past few seasons developing these kids on the roster.

I think this season is about figuring out which ones should be a part of the future, nothing more. I suspect changes this summer to set us up for contention, with a number of the kids being moved.

At the draft, Wemby said his goal is to win a championship ASAP. Its his franchise now, as it should be.

I think you see moves to facilitate that sooner rather than later, maybe even at the deadline this year. There's no one in this draft worth tanking for, no ready-made partner for Wemby.

Let's get it on.

Davidicus
01-16-2024, 10:53 AM
Thanks for the post OP. I think at the end of the day, Spurs FO are going to be conservative and patient for the right deal. They've proven time and time again that's who they are, whether its belief in their extracting maximum value:pick # in the draft (Manu, Tony, Kawhi, DJM, Derrick White, etc), or opportunistic trades like DJM. I think that they think any sort of "pressure" to make a deal hinders their ability to extract maximum value.

One thing that needs to be pointed out / reminded of here on the board is that our current roster is still VERY young. The youngest team in the league. Remember when everyone thought Blake Wesley wasn't good enough to play in the NBA? Fast forward a few months and now he's our golden child? The same development can happen for Vassell, Johnson, Tre Jones, Sochan, and more. The Spurs FO have this as counterbalance to any pressure to do a deal.

CGD
01-16-2024, 11:55 AM
Spurs should not be entertaining anything involving the unprotected 25 or 26 ATL pick/swap, probably not even for Young. I’m not so sure the Young market is as robust as people think it is, and I believe Zach Lowe alluded to that recently. Feels like his value is at a nadir, and tops out at 2 unprotected picks and a protected FRP.

mo7888
01-16-2024, 12:19 PM
Spurs should not be entertaining anything involving the unprotected 25 or 26 ATL pick/swap, probably not even for Young. I’m not so sure the Young market is as robust as people think it is, and I believe Zach Lowe alluded to that recently. Feels like his value is at a nadir, and tops out at 2 unprotected picks and a protected FRP.

Interesting. That would certainly change the calculation then..

R. DeMurre
01-16-2024, 12:26 PM
Wemby leads the entire league in stocks by a large margin while playing far fewer minutes than any of the guys behind him, and has improved/acclimated dramatically in the short time between just October and January... I think it's fair to say that the timeline can be adjusted.

scott
01-16-2024, 12:57 PM
Spurs should not be entertaining anything involving the unprotected 25 or 26 ATL pick/swap, probably not even for Young. I’m not so sure the Young market is as robust as people think it is, and I believe Zach Lowe alluded to that recently. Feels like his value is at a nadir, and tops out at 2 unprotected picks and a protected FRP.

Great point about the picks. We had a "value of future FRPs" thread previously, but just a quick off the top of my head, this is the ranking of the value of the future FRP's we have. I agree that we should take the most valuable of them off any trade discussion, unless it's for a true star level player who is still relatively young (Halliburton-type player):

2024 Spurs
2025 Hawks
2024 Raptors
2026 Spurs (w/ ATL Swap)
2025 Spurs
2027 Hawks
2027 Spurs
2028 Spurs (w/ BOS Swap)
2025 CHI
2029 Spurs
2030 Spurs (w/ DAL Swap)
2024 CHA

A lot of these values include some not-super well calculated Time-Value of the Picks (a pick today is worth more than the same pick a year from now), but don't take into account any expectation of the future quality of a draft.

Because picks attached to Swap right as inherently more valuable, and you want to keep them, I'd say the only assets the Spurs should even consider moving would be:

25 Spurs
27 Spurs or 27 Hawks (one, not both)
25 Bulls
29 Spurs
24 Hornets (likely only to be viewed as two SRPs)

Even if you traded away all these, you'd still have an FRP every year other than 29.

Also like Mo's idea of trying to consolidate seconds into a FRP, but I don't know how viable that is these days, probably needs to be in coordination with taking on salary.

The Truth #6
01-16-2024, 01:04 PM
Given how cautious pop has been this year it's hard to see any rapid acceleration of any timeline. Or at least anything that seems rapid to an outsider. No, I think they're using this year to see which role players they like in what situations (as odd as it has been) and just keep on drafting players and getting cheap cast off veterans.

mo7888
01-16-2024, 01:39 PM
Great point about the picks. We had a "value of future FRPs" thread previously, but just a quick off the top of my head, this is the ranking of the value of the future FRP's we have. I agree that we should take the most valuable of them off any trade discussion, unless it's for a true star level player who is still relatively young (Halliburton-type player):

2024 Spurs
2025 Hawks
2024 Raptors
2026 Spurs (w/ ATL Swap)
2025 Spurs
2027 Hawks
2027 Spurs
2028 Spurs (w/ BOS Swap)
2025 CHI
2029 Spurs
2030 Spurs (w/ DAL Swap)
2024 CHA

A lot of these values include some not-super well calculated Time-Value of the Picks (a pick today is worth more than the same pick a year from now), but don't take into account any expectation of the future quality of a draft.

Because picks attached to Swap right as inherently more valuable, and you want to keep them, I'd say the only assets the Spurs should even consider moving would be:

25 Spurs
27 Spurs or 27 Hawks (one, not both)
25 Bulls
29 Spurs
24 Hornets (likely only to be viewed as two SRPs)

Even if you traded away all these, you'd still have an FRP every year other than 29.

Also like Mo's idea of trying to consolidate seconds into a FRP, but I don't know how viable that is these days, probably needs to be in coordination with taking on salary.

The consolidation of 2nd's to a FFP has two main avenues of possibility. One is as a facilitator in a multi-team deal taking back a small undesired contract and the other is around draft time when early in the 2nd rd a team like Denver etc covets a player thats fallen and is ready to contribute (think college senior/ high floor low ceiling) and they might pay a long term future 1st for a player now.

ambchang
01-16-2024, 03:03 PM
There is a huge difference to Duncan's early years vs. Wemby's current situation.

The Spurs had injuries to a perennial MVP candidate in The Admiral, an all-star level SF in Elilott, with a supporting cast that was built to win 50 to 60 games year in and year out. Wemby stepped into a team that traded all the good players away after struggling to make the play-in tournament. The Spurs were a few tough vets away from the title in 99 (Elie, Jackson), while they are now two all-stars and a bunch of role players away. It's not even close. The entire war chest would have to be emptied for the Spurs to get any thing resembling a title team, if we can even get that. There are VERY few superstars who stepped into that situation. Magic and Duncan were the only two, and Magic got there because the GMs were shockingly stupid back then (James Worthy trade as well two years down the line).

Jordan, Hakeem, Lebron, David Robinson, Shaq, they all were drafted on teams that were horrible. They tried everyrthing and all took years to develop. Hakeem had Ralph Sampson and a bunch of versatile wings but still couldn't get over the Stern mountain, Jordan's team stunk and struggled through Boston and Detroit until Pippen and Grant developed (traded for Cartwright and a bunch of shooters), Lebron's team tried going all in with desperate short sighted trades and the entire thing collapsed, Robinson got Cummings and Strickland, along with Elliott and still didn't get it done because of injuries/chemistry issues, and were left with nothing to build on, with us suffering years of Vinny Del Negro and Avery Johnson. Shaq got incredibly lucky with another #1 pick (traded for Hardaway), with a team that already had Scott and Anderson. Injuries and ego under mined the entire thing.

Bird was the only one who actually succeeded with the addition of Parish and McHale, along with Dennis Johnson and Ainge. They were incredibly lucky in that everything worked out and SFW was stupid as a bag of rocks. We can't expect Wemby to have that level of luck.

The Spurs are actually building for the Era 2 phase for Wemby, if you will. Tre Jones could be the mentor to the new PG like what AJ did for Parker, the draft, hopefully, could bring in players like Ginobili and we can trade for role players. Dynasties were mostly home grown (Bird/McHale/Parish were had when they were young; Magic/Worthy/Scott/Green/Cooper were all drafted; ditto Curry/Thompson/Green; Duncan/Ginobili/Parker; Jordan/Pippen/Grant), most teams build their own core, and then trade for the missing piece at the end. Lebron/Wade/Bosh brought them two titles, Garnett/Pierce/Allen got one. Even the Lakers, who signed Shaq, drafted Kobe (well sort of), and they flamed out after three years. Besides, the Lakers are one of the really rare cities that can pull it off, small markets NEVER do. Even Rockets getting Clyde net them one title, not to mention Clyde wanted to play with Hakeem because of their college days, Houston is a much larger market then San Antonio, and they had an all star in Thorpe to trade.

Anyways, ultra long-winded, but the Spurs are not looking to trade for one or two players to make them contenders, they need a wholesale change, and the easiest way to do so is through the draft, then get the vets after that core is set to contend. The horrys, and wiggins are easy to find, the Kobes and Ginobilis, not so much.

exstatic
01-16-2024, 03:15 PM
Spurs should not be entertaining anything involving the unprotected 25 or 26 ATL pick/swap, probably not even for Young. I’m not so sure the Young market is as robust as people think it is, and I believe Zach Lowe alluded to that recently. Feels like his value is at a nadir, and tops out at 2 unprotected picks and a protected FRP.

There are four teams with stashes of FRPs: SA, OKC, UTA, and BKN. everyone else would struggle to put together two FRPs of any kind.

spurraider21
01-16-2024, 03:22 PM
There are four teams with stashes of FRPs: SA, OKC, UTA, and BKN. everyone else would struggle to put together two FRPs of any kind.
brooklyn also has 2 outgoing FRPs and swaps

Mr. Body
01-16-2024, 03:30 PM
There are four teams with stashes of FRPs: SA, OKC, UTA, and BKN. everyone else would struggle to put together two FRPs of any kind.

I feel the value of the SRPs is less in consolidation than in trading forward. There are contenders who will badly need help but can't otherwise get young talent. I'm not sure if they'd want to sell future firsts, though, but tossing SRPs down the line isn't a bad thing -- the Spurs will be in a situation one day where they'll need new players, too, hard as it is to believe now.

This year, for example, Brooklyn, Dallas, GSW, and Utah will likely have no picks whatsoever, and Sacramento and Lakers only have SRPs right now in the late 50s. That'll be the case every year.

Chinook
01-16-2024, 07:35 PM
There are four teams with stashes of FRPs: SA, OKC, UTA, and BKN. everyone else would struggle to put together two FRPs of any kind.

Two things though:

1) Most teams don't want a bunch of picks close together for their return for similar reasons to why some of us think the Spurs should feel pressure to move some of their picks.

2) If you can get a team to go all-in and trade all their moveable picks, you lock them into a situation where they struggle to improve, which means you increase the likelihood of a Nets/Celtics scenario. The Spurs can offer a ton of picks while maintaining flexibility. It's going to be hard to keep them down long term. I could see the Hawks wanting to rob someone like Orlando of seven years of their picks rather than taking more picks from SA or OKC.

Those combine to suggest that Young isn't necessarily a lock to go to one of the "war chest" teams even if they want him and are willing to bid. While there are teams that are too leveraged to go all-in, there are rising teams that, just like the Hawks a couple of years ago, haven't given up their flexibility and may want a superstar to accelerate their timeline too.

DAF86
01-16-2024, 08:13 PM
Might seem weird but "Let's just copy Tim Duncan's career" isn't a more sustainable path for a team to take around an NBA superstar than "Let's just copy Tom Brady's career" is for an NFL team to take around a QB. At best Brock Purdy is the closet thing we've seen in terms of immediate unheralded excellence bolstering a team with a championship core. Every other team that's won a Lombardi has had to do it a different way. The 99 Spurs were closer to the 2022-2023 Heat than to that version of the Spurs. To build that kind of core takes time and shouldn't be hand-waved as "what a good GM is supposed to do". The best recent analog I can think of for Wemby winning a title in "era 1" would be Wade in 2006. That would require the Spurs to do something like trading for Kawhi, Durant or Curry and making the right moves around them in terms of role-players. I don't see a realistic trade out there that can accomplish that. MAYBE if the Warriors completely collapse and they decide to cash out, the Spurs can win the bidding war to get him while having enough to put a team around them. But I assume he's entrenched, just like Butler, Durant and Leonard are.

For most teams, "era 2" is the best they can hope for to begin their title. That's where Denver and Milwaukee won their titles. You need years of chemistry and growth. That's why there are gaps in between these titles. Tim had to grow into the guy who could lead "era 2", and Parker and Manu had to age into "era 3" before finally senescing in "era 4". Yes, folks should realize that the Spurs aren't likely going to have running mates with Victor for more than a decade. It's okay to bring in older players, and there will always be a need to draft well and hope to pick up more high impact guys on rookie contracts. But the way that should be used is that there can be moves that aren't made with trying to win a title really in mind. Getting the right guy -- even for a year or two -- could be huge for building the foundation in the locker room for a championship core to form. Think Paul Millsap with the Nuggets or Jason Terry with the Bucks.

Who could fit that box? Klay Thompson maybe? He's probably not going to stay with the Warriors, and the team needs consistent shooting. Thompson has looked cooked at times and in general didn't look like his best self since long before his injury. Add in his contract expectations and the fact that he plays the same position as the team's best hope for an organic running mate, and he doesn't seem like the best fit. Maybe Wiggins as a trade target if the Warriors make a win-now move and have to use Andrew's contract as ballast? He'd at least fit the positional needs. But even more than Thompson, making that move would feel more like "proximity to greatness" rather than getting a legit vet pace-setter. It's too bad Draymond is crazy, but he checks a lot of boxes when it comes to his intelligence, competitiveness and spirit. But dude's got problems and can't even be trusted to direct his issues toward the opposing team. I know that's three Warriors, but they've won so many of the recent titles, that there aren't a ton of proven championship-level culture-setters to pick from. We're feeling the aftershocks of the all those Warriors/Cavs Finals.

In terms of whether the Spurs should look more to the draft or free agency this summer, I look at it more as a situation of "Yes, and" rather than "either/or". The team should absolutely draft a PG, and that PG needs to be quick and able to penetrate. That's the single box the team absolutely needs and is the reason why Quickley and Murray are mostly just wasting time in my mind. The team doesn't need this PG to run the offense. They need him to bend the defense. A guy who can get into the paint is going to create opportunities for the easy reps that help build the experience people are worried about. That's why Collier really hasn't lose esteem in my book. For all the talk about needing a PG who can shoot, the Spurs could only wish the biggest issue in their offense is that too many people are choosing to go to the rim rather than hoist up threes. Yes, you want a guy who can do both, and whether the coaching believe the guy can learn to shoot is a reasonable requirement. But the Spurs would be much better in terms of shooting if they had legit vertical spacing to get guys in-rhythm attempts and create conflicts in the defense.

The vet they need is really more of a wing or forward who can create and close. Think Rudy Gay after he recovered from his injury. So what are we looking at there? Maybe Harris or Oubre? Maybe an old hand like DeRozan coming back or making a deal for Wiggins, as I said? It's not going to be easy to find that vet, no matter what criteria one uses.

Dude, that's a lot of words for so many awful ideas. Collier, Oubre, DeRozan, Draymond.:vomit:

CGD
01-16-2024, 08:15 PM
Great point about the picks. We had a "value of future FRPs" thread previously, but just a quick off the top of my head, this is the ranking of the value of the future FRP's we have. I agree that we should take the most valuable of them off any trade discussion, unless it's for a true star level player who is still relatively young (Halliburton-type player):

2024 Spurs
2025 Hawks
2024 Raptors
2026 Spurs (w/ ATL Swap)
2025 Spurs
2027 Hawks
2027 Spurs
2028 Spurs (w/ BOS Swap)
2025 CHI
2029 Spurs
2030 Spurs (w/ DAL Swap)
2024 CHA

A lot of these values include some not-super well calculated Time-Value of the Picks (a pick today is worth more than the same pick a year from now), but don't take into account any expectation of the future quality of a draft.

Because picks attached to Swap right as inherently more valuable, and you want to keep them, I'd say the only assets the Spurs should even consider moving would be:

25 Spurs
27 Spurs or 27 Hawks (one, not both)
25 Bulls
29 Spurs
24 Hornets (likely only to be viewed as two SRPs)

Even if you traded away all these, you'd still have an FRP every year other than 29.

Also like Mo's idea of trying to consolidate seconds into a FRP, but I don't know how viable that is these days, probably needs to be in coordination with taking on salary.

I like your list but I’d reorganize your power rankings some to account for Hawks picks getting more valuable by the day, as well at the Raptors’ slide. I’d also put the SAS 24 and 25 SRP ahead of the CHA pick since they are quasi FRPs. Heck the CHI 25 SRP may factor in for the same reason.

So at the top I have:

2025 Spurs (Flagg draft)
2025 Hawks (Flagg draft)
2026 Spurs (w/ ATL Swap) (Dybantsa; Boozer)
2024 Spurs
2024 Raptors
2030 Spurs (w/ DAL Swap) (Luka done)
2028 Spurs (w/ BOS Swap) (Tatum a Laker)
2027 Hawks
2025 CHI
2027 Spurs
2029 Spurs
2024 Spurs SRP
2024 CHA

Chinook
01-16-2024, 08:23 PM
Dude, that's a lot of words for so many awful ideas. Collier, Oubre, DeRozan, Draymond.:vomit:

You trying to barf at Oubre suggests more than you haven't been paying attention. He's been a good third scorer this year.

Anyways, who would you pick? I'm not saying it to be snide. I'm legit asking what a good off-season would look like. And I mean that from a positive point of view. So like, "get these guys" not "don't get these guys". What should the Spurs hope to accomplish in year two of the Wemby era, and how do they get there from a personnel perspective?

spurraider21
01-16-2024, 08:36 PM
You trying to barf at Oubre suggests more than you haven't been paying attention. He's been a good third scorer this year.

Anyways, who would you pick? I'm not saying it to be snide. I'm legit asking what a good off-season would look like. And I mean that from a positive point of view. So like, "get these guys" not "don't get these guys". What should the Spurs hope to accomplish in year two of the Wemby era, and how do they get there from a personnel perspective?
to your point, the 2024 offseason looks like a pretty rough one for teams like the spurs. the only really interesting guy out there right now, and yes landscapes can change between now and the summer, is malik monk imo. Tyus Jones is also... fine, but not exactly reaching for the stars there. otherwise you are trying to find diamonds in the rough, or are looking at washed players like Klay. so they probably will have to get creative and make trades if they want meaningful veteran help.

DAF86
01-16-2024, 08:43 PM
You trying to barf at Oubre suggests more than you haven't been paying attention. He's been a good third scorer this year.

Anyways, who would you pick? I'm not saying it to be snide. I'm legit asking what a good off-season would look like. And I mean that from a positive point of view. So like, "get these guys" not "don't get these guys". What should the Spurs hope to accomplish in year two of the Wemby era, and how do they get there from a personnel perspective?

This offseason sucks for free agents. I'm all for making "win now" moves, but not by giving up the farm. I wouldn't trade for Dejounte, for example. Those Atlanta 1st round picks are looking more and more priceless by the minute.

Seeing the crap that would be available, I'm perfectly fine with staying put this season, drafting 2 out of Dillingham, Risacher, Salaun and Sheppard; and then just signing veterans that can improve the team in the short term to smart, short deals.

I think I've said somewhere that the least I would consider giving up first round assets for is a Darius Garland type player. Anything under that is no-go for me.

Chinook
01-16-2024, 09:00 PM
to your point, the 2024 offseason looks like a pretty rough one for teams like the spurs. the only really interesting guy out there right now, and yes landscapes can change between now and the summer, is malik monk imo. Tyus Jones is also... fine, but not exactly reaching for the stars there. otherwise you are trying to find diamonds in the rough, or are looking at washed players like Klay. so they probably will have to get creative and make trades if they want meaningful veteran help.

I see Monk as more of an alternative to Vassell, rather than a compliment to a team featuring Devin on the wing. So like if the Spurs did something like trade Vassell and Johnson for Butler, they could then sign Monk to backfill the position. Then the could draft a PG (yes, I understand the draft would happen before, but whatever) and try to snag a quality forward ring-chaser to compete with Sochan. Maybe they get lucky on Royce O'Neal having a soft market or can work out a sign-and-trade for him. So we'd be looking at:

Jones, Sheppard (I'm assuming part of the Butler deal would involve the Spurs and Heat swapping firsts)
Monk, Champangie
Butler, Klintman
Sochan, O'Neal
Wembanyama, Collins

If Butler is the equivalent of the Shaq trade for Wemby's Wade, then there'd probably need to be a follow-up for the Spurs to get even more championship role-players. But as far as an off-season where I'd want Monk, I would prefer it be after a shake-up.

I don't think getting a Millsap-analog is nearly as daunting. I just don't know who the equivalent kind of player would be. Maybe Jerami Grant and his giant contract?

Chinook
01-16-2024, 09:06 PM
This offseason sucks for free agents. I'm all for making "win now" moves, but not by giving up the farm. I wouldn't trade for Dejounte, for example. Those Atlanta 1st round picks are looking more and more priceless by the minute.

Seeing the crap that would be available, I'm perfectly fine with staying put this season, drafting 2 out of Dillingham, Risacher, Salaun and Sheppard; and then just signing veterans that can improve the team in the short term to smart, short deals.

I think I've said somewhere that the least I would consider giving up first round assets for is a Darius Garland type player. Anything under that is no-go for me.

While I certainly understand the appeal of your conservative approach, how do you balance that out with Wemby's urgency to win now? I am not worried he's going to leave soon like some Spurs fans, but I do think he and the other players probably want the team to change its posture toward trying to win as many games as it can. That's why the idea of "veterans" needs more conversation. It's not like there's a bucket with "veterans" listed on there and you just get a few scoops. The team should be look for specific players with skills that can help the roster grow. The question is, who are they? or at least what do they have to be able to do?

spurraider21
01-16-2024, 09:10 PM
I see Monk as more of an alternative to Vassell, rather than a compliment to a team featuring Devin on the wing. So like if the Spurs did something like trade Vassell and Johnson for Butler, they could then sign Monk to backfill the position. Then the could draft a PG (yes, I understand the draft would happen before, but whatever) and try to snag a quality forward ring-chaser to compete with Sochan. Maybe they get lucky on Royce O'Neal having a soft market or can work out a sign-and-trade for him. So we'd be looking at:

Jones, Sheppard (I'm assuming part of the Butler deal would involve the Spurs and Heat swapping firsts)
Monk, Champangie
Butler, Klintman
Sochan, O'Neal
Wembanyama, Collins

If Butler is the equivalent of the Shaq trade for Wemby's Wade, then there'd probably need to be a follow-up for the Spurs to get even more championship role-players. But as far as an off-season where I'd want Monk, I would prefer it be after a shake-up.

I don't think getting a Millsap-analog is nearly as daunting. I just don't know who the equivalent kind of player would be. Maybe Jerami Grant and his giant contract?
i would rather just give monk the reigns tbh, though i know thats not the PG archetype you are a fan of for this club. im not sure its perfect either, but again, im just looking at the FA pool

Dejounte
01-16-2024, 09:22 PM
On The Topic Of Timeline— An Unrealistic Player Like Wemby Who Nobody Saw Coming Five Years Ago Calls For Unrealistic Measures. People Look To The Past For Models On How To Build A Championship Team But I Think Because Of What We Have In Wemby, An Otherworldly Player, That They Should Really Try To Aim Big And Make Championship Runs As Early As Possible. I Was More On The Middle Of The Spectrum Of How Fast They Should Try To Build A Championship Team Just Yesterday, But Today I’m Thinking Fuck It, That They Should Try To Help Wemby Win More Rings Than Bill Russell. That’s Just How Special He is. Start It At The First Opportunity That They Can Find Their Second Star And Let’s Start Winning Big.

DAF86
01-16-2024, 09:25 PM
While I certainly understand the appeal of your conservative approach, how do you balance that out with Wemby's urgency to win now? I am not worried he's going to leave soon like some Spurs fans, but I do think he and the other players probably want the team to change its posture toward trying to win as many games as it can. That's why the idea of "veterans" needs more conversation. It's not like there's a bucket with "veterans" listed on there and you just get a few scoops. The team should be look for specific players with skills that can help the roster grow. The question is, who are they? or at least what do they have to be able to do?

The clear places of need are PG and forward (3 and 4 are the same now). I think with the 2 lottery rookies and 2 mid level veteran signings the team should show enough improvement to ease Wemby's anxiety.

I should take a look at the free agent class but just to give an example: a Mike Conley and a Royce O'neal, on contracts that don't hinder the Spurs long term, would be good options.

Chinook
01-16-2024, 09:31 PM
i would rather just give monk the reigns tbh, though i know thats not the PG archetype you are a fan of for this club. im not sure its perfect either, but again, im just looking at the FA pool

It's more that I see him as very similar to Vassell. Like he doesn't have Devin's upside as a one-on-one creator, but in terms of being the off-guard firecracker, he's much more actualized. If we're talking about getting a PG who can do similar things to Monk, why not Dinwiddie? Spencer is a little kooky, but he's also a dynamic offensive guard who has size, can penetrate and can create his own shot. I don't consider him the main culture centerpiece but he seems attainable.

DAF86
01-16-2024, 09:34 PM
Jrue Holiday is totally out of question, right?

scott
01-16-2024, 09:38 PM
You trying to barf at Oubre suggests more than you haven't been paying attention. He's been a good third scorer this year.

Anyways, who would you pick? I'm not saying it to be snide. I'm legit asking what a good off-season would look like. And I mean that from a positive point of view. So like, "get these guys" not "don't get these guys". What should the Spurs hope to accomplish in year two of the Wemby era, and how do they get there from a personnel perspective?

This question wasn't to me, but I'll answer it anyway... of course I have to make some assumptions along the way.

1. You probably have to do this deal now, and not in the summer, but if I could get DJM back for the CHI pick + the '27 Spurs FRP, I'm doing that deal. I understand, and agree, that you don't want to overly sacrifice your own draft position in the second half of the season, and I'm going to make the assumption that Pop can successfully deploy "record management" to close it out.
2. I'm drafting some combination of wing and PG with our pick and the (hopefully conveying) TOR pick. I'm going to just use the outcome of the first mock draft I run on Tankathon, and the result is Sheppard at #5 and Cody Williams at #8. (Note: Dillingham went at #12 in this Mock, but Williams was the best SF on the board at 8, with Salaun going next at #13. Holland went 6 and Matas at 7. Sarr, Risacher, Walter, Topic went 1-4).
3. I'm going to make a run at Gordon Hayward on something like a 2/20 deal to close out his career.
4. I'm going to reach out to someone like Patty and see if he'll assume the Devonte Graham towel-waver role.
5. I'm going to see if I can't get Cedi and Doug back on vet minimum deals.

Your 2024 San Antonio Spurs:

PG: Murray/Sheppard/Tre
SG: Vassell/Branham/Champ
SF: Hayward/Keldon/Cody Williams
PF: Sochan/Cedi/Doug
C: Wemby/Collins/Bassey

I'm also going to try to see if I can't package some combo of Keldon/Bran/Wesley/Champ/Barlow (or Bassey if you prefer Dom) to get some increased PF or SG depth. Ideally by the second half of the season, you've see enough from Williams to promote him to starting SF and Hayward moves to the bench.

I could definitely be overstating things, but to me this looks like a team who is somewhere between the 7-10 seed and has injected high-potential youth into a situation that doesn't ask too much of them, and still has more draft talent incoming.

Edit: I'd even seriously consider bringing Lonnie back to backup Devin.

scott
01-16-2024, 09:40 PM
On The Topic Of Timeline— An Unrealistic Player Like Wemby Who Nobody Saw Coming Five Years Ago Calls For Unrealistic Measures. People Look To The Past For Models On How To Build A Championship Team But I Think Because Of What We Have In Wemby, An Otherworldly Player, That They Should Really Try To Aim Big And Make Championship Runs As Early As Possible. I Was More On The Middle Of The Spectrum Of How Fast They Should Try To Build A Championship Team Just Yesterday, But Today I’m Thinking Fuck It, That They Should Try To Help Wemby Win More Rings Than Bill Russell. That’s Just How Special He is. Start It At The First Opportunity That They Can Find Their Second Star And Let’s Start Winning Big.

I'm not sure I'm totally here yet, but I wouldn't hate it ONLY because the Spurs have enough assets for a big splash (Trae for example) without mortgaging the future. This is the flexibility Brian Wright has preached that you reminded us of this week, Dejounte.

R. DeMurre
01-16-2024, 09:43 PM
Two guys I like purely for inexpensive depth next year are Delon Wright and Alec Burks. Both are unrestricted FAs, neither will be overly expensive, both have good size, defensive capabilities, 3pt shooting, and experience as secondary ballhandlers. Neither would be a splashy move, but both could shore up a young inexperienced team as glue guy type vets.

spurraider21
01-16-2024, 09:48 PM
It's more that I see him as very similar to Vassell. Like he doesn't have Devin's upside as a one-on-one creator, but in terms of being the off-guard firecracker, he's much more actualized. If we're talking about getting a PG who can do similar things to Monk, why not Dinwiddie? Spencer is a little kooky, but he's also a dynamic offensive guard who has size, can penetrate and can create his own shot. I don't consider him the main culture centerpiece but he seems attainable.
we could do worse than dinwiddie. monk just really seems to be ascending. hes about to turn 26 and can get better. dinwiddie will turn 31 this season

R. DeMurre
01-16-2024, 09:53 PM
Another guy I'm keeping an eye on is Goga Bitadze, who's having something of an under-the-radar breakout year in Orlando. He'll also be an UFA. He surprisingly has the same VORP as Wagner and Banchero, and better BPM, WS, & +/- #s than them. If he can provide 15 mpg as a back up center, and possible 5-10 mpg as a center with Wemby at PF, an affordable offer might be a nice bargain.

DAF86
01-16-2024, 09:57 PM
Another guy I'm keeping an eye on is Goga Bitadze, who's having something of an under-the-radar breakout year in Orlando. He'll also be an UFA. He surprisingly has the same VORP as Wagner and Banchero, and better BPM, WS, & +/- #s than them. If he can provide 15 mpg as a back up center, and possible 5-10 mpg as a center with Wemby at PF, an affordable offer might be a nice bargain.

We don't need to spend resources in the center position, tbh.

mo7888
01-16-2024, 10:01 PM
Another guy I'm keeping an eye on is Goga Bitadze, who's having something of an under-the-radar breakout year in Orlando. He'll also be an UFA. He surprisingly has the same VORP as Wagner and Banchero, and better BPM, WS, & +/- #s than them. If he can provide 15 mpg as a back up center, and possible 5-10 mpg as a center with Wemby at PF, an affordable offer might be a nice bargain.

That makes sense to me if we move Collins.

Dejounte
01-16-2024, 10:05 PM
If DeAaron Fox Ever Becomes Available, I Think He’d Be The Perfect Fit To Put Next To Wemby Tbh.

He’s Probably Never Going To Be Available.

Chinook
01-16-2024, 10:10 PM
I think Ja and Wemby would be perfect. He's an absolutely oppressive scorer. Fox is also great, but yeah is probably not going to be available for a while. Morant has more of a chance to be traded, but the sequences of events that would lead to that would make him a really risky target for the Spurs.

spurraider21
01-16-2024, 10:10 PM
That makes sense to me if we move Collins.
who are we paying to take collins off us?

CGD
01-16-2024, 10:15 PM
If DeAaron Fox Ever Becomes Available, I Think He’d Be The Perfect Fit To Put Next To Wemby Tbh.

He’s Probably Never Going To Be Available.

Yeah especially since they bet the house on him over Halliburton. I do like Fox tho.

mo7888
01-16-2024, 10:19 PM
who are we paying to take collins off us?

It's hard to say, but hopefully it's in a deal as salary balast to go after a player we want instead of just paying picks to move him for space. I think there will be a market there.

Phenomanul
01-17-2024, 06:37 PM
I think Ja and Wemby would be perfect. He's an absolutely oppressive scorer. Fox is also great, but yeah is probably not going to be available for a while. Morant has more of a chance to be traded, but the sequences of events that would lead to that would make him a really risky target for the Spurs.

Offcourt Ja would not be the best influence on Wembanyama.

Chinook
01-17-2024, 06:52 PM
Offcourt Ja would not be the best influence on Wembanyama.

I'm not worried about that. Wemby's not an idiot. But I am more worried about Ja getting himself suspended or falling into further mental disarray and becoming unavailable while hurting the team culture as a result.